Dubnyk Emerging?

We’ve been talking lately about minor league save percentage and its ability to predict future success at the NHL level. Although there is no such thing as a perfect way to project these kids, save percentage has a strong correlation between superior AHL save percentage and future NHL success.

In the case of Dubnyk, I’ve wondered (both in junior and in the AHL) about the age of the blueline and Jonathan Willis wondered about quality of team and how it impacts SP. I’m wondering if there’s a way to improve the SP with an added “quality/experience of team” footnote for each season.

The reason it is front and center for me is that Devan Dubnyk is having a very nice start to the season and his team also appears to be much stronger overall. I felt this might happen (a more experienced, qualified AHL team should mean fewer good chances against) for Dubnyk in 09-10 and in fact his save percentage has taken a leap. However the shot total has increased this season:

  • 2008-09 Save Percentage/Shots per game: .906/31.53
  • 2009-10 Save Percentage/Shots per game: .920/37.78

I know that good teams often get outshot when they’re ahead but that doesn’t appear to be the case with the current edition of the Falcons. I welcome theories and reasoning behind this season for DD (and do understand it’s early) but it looks to me as though he’s having a very good start to the year and may give the Oilers a welcome dilemma next off-season.

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28 Responses to "Dubnyk Emerging?"

  1. Gerta Rauss says:

    I'm posting over here only because the neighbours are fighting again in the other thread:)

  2. MikeP says:

    I haven't looked at the numbers myself, but.. while a strong AHL SP may be correlated with decent NHL goalie, do strong AHL goalies necessarily do well in the NHL? My skater equivalent of this is Sean van Allen.

  3. OF17 says:

    I think the higher shot total could come from a defensive system that forces shots from the outside, which would also explain the higher SP. A more efficient defensive team will reduce quality scoring chances, but not necessarily the number of shots against. Springfield being stronger this season may be giving Dubnyk easier shots, despite there being more of them.

    Also, goalies often do better when they face many shots as it keeps them in the game. Could be that too. Or Dubnyk is just plain getting better.

  4. PDO says:

    Those Montreal jerseys are just awful.

    Hopefully the Phillies can come back with a big W tonight.

  5. Lowetide says:

    I'm an NL guy. When the Jays won I cheered for the Phillies and everyone I knew thought it was jealousy (Expos).

    Nonsense. The AL is the junior loop by I believe three seasons. Peasants. 🙂

  6. PDO says:

    I don't like the DH.

    Hate it, really.

    So I'm an NL guy too just based on that.

    Philly is an easy city to cheer for too. Great fans.

  7. Asiaoil says:

    LT – is a reasonable explanation simply that Dubnyk is playing better. Not too complicated huh? Of course we will see as he gets more "at bats" whether this level of performance has some sustain to it. Same with JDD – a couple of good starts means almost nothing.

    Elite goalies stop a lot of shots, good ones stop a few less, mediocre ones even fewer. While the defense on front of them obviously makes a difference – an elite goalie puts up decent results irrespective of that. Put him in front of a good defense and he's even better. But a real elite goalie is NEVER mediocre. Take a look at Luongo's numbers as a young guy in front of an absolutely putrid Panthers team. A ton of losses but still a very respectable SP.

    I would suggest that you are over-thinking this issue based on a few early season starts. Let the "at bats" pile up and the cream will rise if it's there. Based on the slow progress I've downgraded DD's potential upside to average NHL starter unless the lack of a real goalie coach was to blame for some lack of development – but we'll see if the new guy can actually make a difference. JDD looks like a quality backup and my Steve Valiquette comp remains.

  8. Lowetide says:

    Asia: And I respect that, it's the obvious answer (over-thinking). However, you and I have talked in the past (all the way back to Kamloops) about the 5-on-3's and the poor club in front of him.

    Is it reasonable to suggest that this might be the first good club he's played for?

  9. kris says:

    LT's post caused me to look at the Falcon's numbers.

    Two interesting bits:

    1.) Reddox is having a disastrous start to the season. 11 games 2-1-3 and -8 with only 14 shots. I get that there was a serious debate about whether he would ever be capable of filling a minor role in the NHL, but his AHL ability was never in doubt. Now? Yikes. Maybe it's an injury. But even so.

    2.) Trukhno still can't score. IMO, he's gone from outside-chance prospect to almost-certain career minor leaguer. Sad.

  10. Lowetide says:

    kris: Funny you should mention Trukhno, I watched some of the game online today and he made some sublime passes. It seems as though the Falcons have about 5 AHL vets they play as a group and Truk was on a line with them for a time.

    Looked splendid, although the line didn't cash.

  11. Woodguy says:

    With the market for back up goalies being very thin, the Oilers probably spent a lot of time on JDD or Dubnyk who they will lose for next to nothing.

    I actually kinda hope (expect) Khabby to hit the IR for a while so the young un's can battle it out for 2G next year.

    I'm sure that there will be some who'll rank both JDD and Dubnyk above Khabby and there will be much weeping and gnashing of teeth when one of them goes.

  12. PDO says:

    Why's that kid in the OHL looking at a year long suspension?

    He didn't charge, he didn't jump, and if the D doesn't try and spin out of the way, he just gets blown up and life goes on as usual…

  13. Asiaoil says:

    Hi LT – no the Stockton ECHL team was good but yeah those Kamloops teams were abysmal. I remember walking into the dragons den by suggesting that Dubnyk may be a better goalie than Pogge based on a guesstimate of their ES SP that threw out the clear PP advantage that Pogge had. Needless to say it was mocked in the time period after Pogge's WJC victory but it seems to have held up.

    Dubnyk is coming on but he's older so you have to knock him a few marks since other guys have performed better at an earlier age. That shouts lower upside to me – but our goalie coaching has been so bad and Dubnyk is a guy whose had some technical issues to clean up since day 1 and they never seem to be addressed properly. But as usual – we'll see how the season plays out – you don't win a batting championship in May 🙂

  14. doritogrande says:

    Did Chris Minard get the call to the big club today, or is he injured?

    He's not on the roster from today's Falcons game.

    I'll definitely take a guy scoring at close to a GPG in the AHL on this team right now over, oh…Smac, Moreau, Pisani, Comrie, Brule, Nilsson, Cogliano….probably a couple more.

  15. doritogrande says:

    Oh, and for the record, Tim Sestito has more points at this point in the season than he did all last year with the Falcons.

    Odd. Didn't see him as a sniper.

  16. SK Oiler Fan says:

    Saw DD in Saskatoon in preseason. The guy makes the net look like it's 4 ft wide X 3 ft high.

    At the very least they have a decent trading chip in one or the other.

    If Khabby goes down the competition between DD and JDD should be very interesting.

    Tough decision next year, but I predict the three headed goalie monster will appear again next season.

    Remember this is the Oilers and Lowe is still pulling some strings. He has to be, why else would the Oilers have iced Peckham, Chorney, Struds the last 2 games?

  17. bookie says:

    It would be interesting to run the statistics for Shots per game vs Save percentage to see if there is an overall increase in save percentages when goalies face more shots per game. There is a logic that might support this though it is somewhat fuzzy.

  18. R O says:

    It would be interesting to run the statistics for Shots per game vs Save percentage to see if there is an overall increase in save percentages when goalies face more shots per game. There is a logic that might support this though it is somewhat fuzzy.

    Such a study exists for goaltending at the NHL level.

  19. logical thinking says:

    It's still early in the season. If Dubnyk has a bad game or two his save% will drop fast.

    What about goaltending equipment? Do all companies make the exact same equipment? Maybe different pads = less rebounds.

  20. Kristopher Milligan says:

    From the springfield website

    "Chris Minard, Falcons team leader in points and goals, did not play in today’s game due to injury"

  21. Jonathan Willis says:

    Honsetly, I think a lot of this might be cleared up by even-strength save percentage, if the Falcons PK is as bad as everyone says it is.

  22. spOILer says:

    JW, agreed.

    AsiaOil, could you please enlighten us with examples of the poor aspects of the Oiler's goaltending coaching w.r.t. development? The stuff that you could see but the professional coaches and managers working alongside the goaltending coach apparently could not?

  23. Asiaoil says:

    sOILer – no disrespect but I've got way way better things to do on my day off than spenign time dissecting that useless POS Pete Peeters. Results speak for themselves.

  24. PunjabiOil says:

    sOILer – no disrespect but I've got way way better things to do on my day off than spenign time dissecting that useless POS Pete Peeters. Results speak for themselves.

    That's a bit unfair on Pete Peeters. Dubnyk, Roloson and JDD have had nothing but good things to say about him, and he was quickly picked up by Anaheim. There haven't been any quotes to suggest he was a POS, or hindered development.

    Maybe he was a poor coach, but your guess is as good as mine.

  25. Asiaoil says:

    …and Garon didn't and look what happened to him. The guy produced zero tangible results. During his tenure we had poor drafting, poor development, weak results from any pro who actually needed some help all the way from the Salo meltdown, through the Conkinen fiasco and the AHL development issues. Roli didn't need Peeters and that was lucky for him. Dude was as useful as the proverbial sack of hammers on a 10 mile hike. Conklin actually became a passable goalie after he got out of here. Come on PJO – that's a long list of weak results – and countering it with "the boys thought he was a good guy" just doesn't cut it. On that basis we should sign Strudwick to a 5 year – $10 million contract.

  26. logical thinking says:

    Peter Peeters on July 27th, 2009 signed on as goaltending coach for the Anaheim Ducks ( if only the incompentent Ducks organization could of consulted Asiaoil before hand )

  27. Stuart van says:

    Dubnyk tends to get pretty hot and cold. It may be premature to herald his SP at this stage of the season. A couple average games and he's back to his usual range. But let's hope this is a sustainable change.

  28. dawgbone says:

    AO… that's quite the revisionists history there.

    Conklin was a passable goaltender in the Oilers organization too, with the exception of 05-06. He had a very good stint in the AHL followed by a solid year in 03-04 in the NHL. The wheels fell off in 05-06 and continued in 06-07, but are you blaming that all on Pete Peters? He was on his 4th team before he managed to turn his game back around.

    And you are blaming poor drafting on him? This team has drafted what, 4 goalies in his tenure? 1 is in the NHL as a backup, the other is starting in the AHL.

    He gets a pretty bum rap, but there isn't much to support it. How much do you equate a goaltender getting better or worse based on the goalie coach and how much do you attribute it to the player?

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