Reddox, Potulny Recalled

Oilers website has just posted the news: Liam Reddox and Ryan Potulny are in the show again.

Edmonton has been playing shorthanded for several reasons in the last few weeks. Injury, flu and coach Quinn’s reluctance to use Steve MacIntyre meant a real lack of depth up front. Reddox is developing into a useful 2-way player at the AHL level and has shown some things in the big leagues (although certainly not to the point where Quinn can rely on him in important situations). Reddox (incredibly) is not a fan favorite, owing to MacT’s using him in all situations during his rookie season.

Potulny had the big season (38 goals) a year ago in Springfield and came to the organization from the Flyers (Danny Syvret trade). Where they’ll slot in is anyone’s guess, but based on last game (against the Rangers) the two candidates to come out of the lineup might be Robert Nilsson and Steve MacIntyre.

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96 Responses to "Reddox, Potulny Recalled"

  1. Mr DeBakey says:

    No MsDonald?

  2. Lowetide says:

    Mr. Debakey: Not yet, but (as mentioned by BDHS in the previous thread) McDonald might be close to recall.

    I don't know that there are any wingers who are checkers in Springfield ahead of him now that Reddox is an Oiler.

  3. Peter says:

    Guess at lines:


    What a message to Nilsson. He's clearly coming out, otherwise they would have only recalled Potulny. Bad break for Minard too – I'm sure he would have been recalled if he weren't hurt.

  4. Lowetide says:

    Peter: It might also mean Hemsky isn't going to play.

  5. Mr DeBakey says:

    I meant to mention in the thread below that it'll be interesting to see McDonald's QC numbers when someone runs them.

    Stauffer did an excellent pre-game with McDonald in TC, its probably in the archives.

    Potulney & Reddox are the two obvious gus to recall, but this isn't going to be a pretty road trip.

  6. pboy says:

    It's about time. I was begging for Tambo to leave MacIntyre in Springfield when the played the B's last Saturday but what does 1 week really matter? It's not like the points in October or November count as much anyways :>

  7. spOILer says:

    It's probably fair and reasonably smart to give those guys in the organisation with some age and experience a shot before pulling the trigger on any trade.

    Especially with our cap issues and Management perhaps thinking this is a playoff team without injuries and illness.

    Bobby's career is in deep deep trouble.

    I like Potulny because he's a shooter, but at least McDonald would have replaced some of the physicality lost when Stone and JFJ joined the line up in front of the trainer's table.

  8. FlamingPavelBure says:

    Quinn: I'm sorry, but i thought that someone who had similar statistics then you at the AHL level then those you have at NH:, might just do it better

  9. kris says:

    Yike. If no Hemsky, then:


    Ladies and Gentlemen, your 2009 Bad News Bears.

  10. DBO says:

    So is macintyre being waived then? Or with hemsky out it's an injury recall? My hope for lines


  11. kris says:


    It's more like this:

    Quinn: You're such a terrible hockey player right now, and watching you crap all over the ice, night in an night out, racking up minuses and floating around, has caused me to begin eating my own toes. I'm down to 3 on each foot. So, for my own health, I'm going to play anyone I can find instead of you.

  12. Black Dog says:

    Yeah fpb – in the end Brownlee's description of Nilsson is accurate – a tease

    So much for all of the talk of coming to camp in terrific shape and all that jazz.

    He's on a short leash (his own fault) and hasn't done a damn thing.

    So time for a change.

  13. FlamingPavelBure says:

    Yeah but i mean, Reddox's being crap so far too in the AHL.

    Nilsson's got to outrun the bear and the other guys.

    It seems like the NHL 10 Bot is coaching.

    ''You'r crap your sent down, even if the other guy is crappier''

  14. doritogrande says:

    Who did we IR/demote to accomplish this?

    Seems to me this is something they should have done when the flu had us by the nutsack. Not to mention Stone's surgery.

    By my counts, we should have the following players now "on the NHL roster":


    That's 16 bodies, 17 if you count Stone.

    I've yet to hear anything IR related in terms of Horcoff and Hemsky. Can someone please confirm or refute my logic here?

  15. Lowetide says:

    I am always amazed by this Reddox bashing. ALL YOUNG PLAYERS take time to find their way. Reddox was drafted in the shadow of the great Rob Schremp and has used his scythe to clear the brush and step over the 1st rounders.

    What's not to like? He isn't playing the softs at level yet but it's much more likely for Reddox than Schremp.

    And right now it doesn't look like it's a far drive from Schrempville to Nilssontown.


  16. Ribs says:

    Interesting couple of guys. It looks like they've been playing together all season in Springfield but their stat lines don't really indicate any remarkable chemistry.

    For the sake of just giving the team a shot of energetic play I'm glad to see the callup.

  17. kris says:


    The bear ate Nilsson already.

    Granted, Reddox is having a terrible year according to his boxcars.

    But in all seriousness, I think a lot of the guys in the A would be better in the lineup than Nilsson right now, and that has nothing to do with boxcars numbers.

    We need a few guys who can get the puck out of the zone and who can win a few puck battles and play the other teams 2-4th lines somewhat close to a draw in time of possession and shots.

    If we can do that, the skilled guys like Penner, Vis, and Hemsky can do the rest and win a few games.

    Nilsson isn't doing that right now at all. He's getting killed about as badly as an NHL player can get killed. (To be fair, a few other guys are doing poorly too.) Some guys in the A probably could, even if they have hands of stone or poor speed, or the inability to score more than 10 points.

    At this point, it can't hurt to try the AHL'ers.

    It might also have the impact of showing a few guys that their jobs and their future NHL pay checks are now seriously on the line.

  18. Rob Gilgan says:

    "Seems to me this is something they should have done when the flu had us by the nutsack."

    Again with the underestimation of the flu's impact. We are far from being over the flu in this organization. Think early December, at the earliest.

    And what the illness does: robs players of their concentration, stamina and strength, induces continuous fatigue. Lay that template over what you see on the ice and you'll quickly identify who's sick and who isn't. And remember, those are the ones that are well enough to go.

  19. Kenny Powers says:

    I'm confused by this too. Seems like we have too many bodies. Maybe Jacques' back is IR serious again?

    Hi heard an interview with Daum recently. In a nutshell said that they tried to start Reddox in an offensive role and he didn't flourish. Since they've moved him back to an energy and defensive role, he's been really good. All he really said about Potulny is that he's struggled. I'm surprised that he got the call.

  20. Lowetide says:

    Maybe the Oilers have had the flu for years.

  21. Ribs says:

    That's gotta be it.

  22. Lowetide says:

    In regard to the roster moves, they've recalled them but don't have to activate until tomorrow. Right?

    So, I expect we'll see the roster move later today or tomorrow. They could IR Jacques and another player but they could also send MacIntrye to waivers.

    No disrespect but the coach doesn't trust him. And I think we can agree with cause.

  23. Black Dog says:

    Good stuff K.P. – lends some context to Reddox's start.

    fpb – its not a video game. Even if it was Nilsson has been the suck. One goal, right? That's one more than Reddox, Potulny, Khabibulin, you and I. And it was an empty netter.

    This club needs guys to score. They also need guys to do what Quinn described the other day – the little things. Reddox does the little things. Nilsson does neither, at least not consistently. Every time I see the guy he is 'also in frame' as Khabibulin fishes the puck out of the net.

  24. Kenny Powers says:

    Makes sense, thanks LT.

  25. Greg MC says:

    Yes, the CFP flu. Along with Lowoitosis and MacTavinesia.

  26. spOILer says:

    Lowetide said…

    I am always amazed by this Reddox bashing. ALL YOUNG PLAYERS take time to find their way. Reddox was drafted in the shadow of the great Rob Schremp and has used his scythe to clear the brush and step over the 1st rounders.

    What's not to like? He isn't playing the softs at level yet but it's much more likely for Reddox than Schremp.

    And right now it doesn't look like it's a far drive from Schrempville to Nilssontown.


    Dead on.

  27. kris says:

    The flu puts maybe 30% of the team at a time at about 80% energy levels.

    So how come we're playing at 15% of goodness.

  28. Ribs says:

    Hmm, yea, I guess Reddox has beeen split from Potulny for the last 4 games. He took Brennans spot on the O'Marra McDonald line.

  29. rickibear says:

    Nylander on Waivers!

  30. doritogrande says:

    All he really said about Potulny is that he's struggled. I'm surprised that he got the call.

    Because with Chris Minard down (injury) he's the best offensive weapon signed to an NHL contract.

  31. Steve says:

    I am always amazed by this Reddox bashing. ALL YOUNG PLAYERS take time to find their way. Reddox was drafted in the shadow of the great Rob Schremp and has used his scythe to clear the brush and step over the 1st rounders.

    I love Liam Reddox, for precisely the reasons you mention. He came out of nowhere and stole a job from a bunch of guys with better pedigree (I loved pointing out that he was a better offensive talent in the AHL than Schremp was, back when that was true). But the reason those guys had better pedigree in the first place is that Reddox isn't really very good.

    I like Reddox just fine as a 12-13F, and I'm broadly in support of any move that gets Nilsson out of the lineup. But Liam Reddox just isn't good enough to be a meaningful part of the solution for an NHL team. And like Tobey Peterson – who I also thought was a useful 12-13F – Reddox playing a meaningful role on a roster is a sure sign that a team is doomed.

    This team is doomed.

  32. Sean says:

    So if Nilsson goes on waivers, he goes to the AHL for the season right? I'd imagine a team would gamble on him at 50% salaray on re-entry

  33. Scott says:

    But replacing Nilsson with a $1MM player would be a zero net gain on the cap if he if claimed on re-entry waivers.

    If you replace him with Reddox (the cheapest viable option), that's still only ~$400K savings.

    If he goes to the minors, he'll likely be staying there. A trade is probably more likely. Hopefully he has a big game against one of our usual trading partners.

  34. Woodguy says:

    If the Oilers can't move 12 and are forced to waive him, it would be lunacy to recall him at any point given his contract situation.

    So I'm not discounting it 100%, but its highly improbable. Once (if) he's waived its probably the last time he sees the NHL on his current contract.

  35. Sean says:

    Yup, I agree. Putting 12 on re-entry would be crazy. He hits waivers he is done. I wonder if Katz is willing to buy out KLo's 2 million blunder to get a 2way forward. Maybe they can they swing a deal and send him to mentor MPS, teach him what it takes to be a pro 😉

  36. PDO says:

    So how does the cap hit work if Nylander goes and plays in the KHL? Anyone?

    Past that..

    Maybe this is a precursor to that trade… 😉

  37. Hockey Noob says:

    Steve said:

    I like Reddox just fine as a 12-13F, and I'm broadly in support of any move that gets Nilsson out of the lineup. But Liam Reddox just isn't good enough to be a meaningful part of the solution for an NHL team. And like Tobey Peterson – who I also thought was a useful 12-13F – Reddox playing a meaningful role on a roster is a sure sign that a team is doomed.

    Good thoughts Steve even if a little morose. I do tend to agree with you on this one. I wouldn't count myself among those that hate Reddox or lament the fact that he played what 25 minutes last year on the top line.

    Right now, it's clear that this team is short of players that can either outshoot or outscore the competition. I wouldn't count Reddox based on his career as a guy who's going to do either even against 4rth liners.

    I haven't watched him play, but his boxcars look pretty scary in the AHL this year.

  38. Woodguy says:

    We need a few guys who can get the puck out of the zone and who can win a few puck battles and play the other teams 2-4th lines somewhat close to a draw in time of possession and shots.

    If we can do that, the skilled guys like Penner, Vis, and Hemsky can do the rest and win a few games.

    Hopefully that could work.

    When the Oilers were 6-2-1 they had 10,83,22 sawing off with the toughs and 27,89,91,67 killing the soft.

    Since 27 and 83 started to play together they have won 2 games. CBJ and Wings, where 83,27 put on a show both times.

    We need soft killers. Unfortunately the lack of depth has 27/89 playing toughs, and this team doesn't have the depth to win if that's the case.

  39. kinger says:

    Lowetide said…

    Maybe the Oilers have had the flu for years.

    Reading that line caused me to laugh far too loud for my work environment.

  40. linnaeus says:

    In hockey, math isn't a good predictor. Reddox for example might play better at the NHL level than the AHL. I think we could argue that Chorney is doing exactly that.

    I'd like to return to an earlier posting here and offer the following small quiz for those of you who believe stats and math can predict the future.

    GW ahl nhl

    236 .839 .912
    403 .949 .919
    305 .908 .908
    212 .895 .887
    389 .895 .906

    So what we have is games won by five very good goaltenders along with their ahl and nhl save perctanges. I've purposely scrambled the order so no save percentage at either level goes with the number of wins in the first column.

    What do we know about these goaltenders. One is in the Hall of Fame. Three have Stanley Cup rings. Two have more than one ring. Two are in the top twenty in games won by a goaltender. The other three will be, barring injury. One has the record for most Stanley Cup wins in a career. Naming them should be pretty easy (since four are active their games won may have changed by the time you read this). The challenge is can you put the right stats with the right goaltender. Don't cheat, after all math should provide all the answers, shouldn't it?

    Do you still think AHL save percentage tells you sweet zip all about a goaltenders future in the NHL?

  41. Lowetide says:

    I believe math can tell us all kinds of things re:hockey, but we need to understand context, view many seasons and (as Vic has taught us for a long time) give due respect to that demon called "luck."

  42. FlamingPavelBure says:

    Response to people on Nilsson:

    I know he's been shit lately (even tough i don't think circumstances have been favorable to him *cough* Brendan Witt *cough*) I wonder, why replace him with someone that sucks as much as he do, in an inferior league?

    Why not Linglet or Minard?

    Wtf is wrong with them? Scoring too much?

  43. kris says:

    Oh Linnaeus,

    I sort of agree about AHL save percentages not being a particularly reliable predictor of NHL success, but whatever you're arguing doesn't make any sense to me.

    Moreover, you can't impugn the value of "math" in making predictions about hockey by pointing out there may be a problem with proecting NHL SV% from past AHL SV%. That's ust one stat.

    Finally, I wish people would quit saying that using the advanced stats -or plain old boxcars- to make predictions about players or to evaluate their play is "math."

    (Whenever I hear people deriding "math" in hockey, I always think of George Bush talking about that "fuzzy math" in his debate with Gore.)

    When we say "math," we really mean quantitative indicators of past performance. There's barely any mathematics involved at all in this really. It doesn't take calculus to say that, for the past five seasons, player X's team always get's outhot when he's on the ice, even by players who usually get outshot themselves, and therefore player X is likely to get outshot in the future.

    Anyway, the post is interesting, I don't mean to be rude, but I don't see how the contest you propose, or anyone's difficulty in giving the answers, shows anything.

    Maybe I is dumb.

  44. kris says:


    Minard is concussed. I think that was already mentioned, no?

    I bet we see him soon if he gets healthy.

  45. Lowetide says:

    fpb: Let's try this: Nilsson is a sports car. A wonderful, fast sports car. As soon as the engine fires you know there's something special going on. You back that puppy out of the driveway and the neighbour's blonde daughter turns her head. You know this isn't right, but what the hell? It's a sunny day and you couldn't afford this baby when you were 20.

    Slip the clutch and let the engine purr down your street and now you're at the light. All eyes are on your car, and why not? It's freaking incredible!!!

    Light turns green and you are a travellin' man, shifting smoothly and the picket fences zip by faster and faster until you can see the freeway.

    You're on the offramp now, cars are rolling down the highway and not in a mood to move over. No worries, you've merged since Christ was a kid.

    You're gaining speed, pop the clutch one more time for the extra gear, have a quick glance at the rpm's and ease down on the gas as you hit the open highway.

    And then you hear a sputter, a pop, a thunkah thunkah deep down in the bowels of the engine and the car starts to chug a little. Your wonderful, exceptional sex car has you chugging along the highway looking for your cell phone and waving people on.

    If Nilsson were a car he'd be on his third owner.

  46. kris says:

    And picking goalies who started in hte AHL 15 or more years ago -you mentioned a hall of famer is one of your guys- to say something about SV% now is kind of odd, no?

    The game has changed in the NHL a lot. I imagine the AHL has too.

  47. Gerta Rauss says:

    Update today

    Hemsky,Horc and Jacques were not on the plane

    Audio/Video to come

  48. Black Dog says:

    Horc and Hemsky, eh?

    Wow, things can get worse.

  49. Lowetide says:

    Well, let's hope Forsberg is banged up and Burnaby Joe only scores three.

    If this season rolls out as it appears, how do we come to grips with the fact that the Avs turned it around this quickly?

    And what does that say about Oilers management group?

  50. Black Dog says:

    Yeah but LT they were terrible for, what, five, six years? All of those lottery picks were bound to pay off. 😉

    Of course the Oilers' management group deserves all of the heat that they get. The most galling thing is that they were dealing from a position of strength in June of 2006. A quality roster full of young veterans that had just gone to the final, a club that would have been fourth or fifth that season with decent goaltending.

    Pronger's request threw them off the rails but even if that trade remains the same if they had spent the money wisely they would have been competitive the next season.

    And so on and so on. For every good move they make they make three stupid ones.

    Just terrible.

  51. Showerhead says:

    I'm watching the Leafs/Wings game right now whilst my t-bone steak bakes in the oven. Both parts of that sentence make me feel like less of a man, I'll admit, but I wanted to evaluate the "Toronto has more try than Edmonton" line of thinking I've seen creep up around here.

    Unfortunately, whoever raised that thought is absolutely right. Combine this with Toronto's relatively clean bill of health and the possible emergence of Jonas Gustavsson and they could well be ahead of us when Christmas rolls in.

    As for the steak, I wanted to try something new. Anyone do this before? I'm cautiously optimistic and while I don't have a grill or bbq going at the moment I'd do anything to avoid desecrating a t-bone by pan frying it.

  52. Gerta Rauss says:

    Quinn off day

    O'sully RW practiced with Gagner,Penner

  53. Lowetide says:

    For God's sakes buy a barbeque. That cow died so we could prepare food properly. Even a Hibachi would do.

  54. Showerhead says:

    LT: I had to google "hibachi". Something like this?

    As for the BBQ I am living in a luxuriously balcony free apartment building. I like to think of it as a tradeoff for getting to go to University where all of the world's beautiful women roam 😉

  55. Lowetide says:

    Showerhead: That's the ticket. You can prepare any meat or fish wonderfully with one. I'd rather cook a steak in a parking lot than broil it.

    You're broling it right? Watch closely, it is easy to over cook. I'm finding this upsetting.

  56. linnaeus says:


    Many of the arguments here and elsewhere concerning the Oilers are based on hockey stats, boxcars, corsi, faceoff %, qual comp, time on ice, etc. It has always been thus in debates amongst rapid fans. I’ve got nothing against any of that.

    What gets me is when “math” is used inappropriately to make predictions about an individual player’s or a team’s future performance. Even worse is when they base their plans for the Oilers future on these numbers.

    We’ve all seen it done.

    Two of the four most common arguments made here about what the Oilers need are based on bad math. The other two are based on faulty logic but aren't defended with "stats". The arguments are: 1. We need a defensive center 2. We need a better back up goalie since ours had a lousy AHL SV% 3. We need Pisani insurance 4. We need a stud shutdown defenceman.

    For the statements about JDD to be valid the following hypothesis would have to be true: “that AHL save percentage is correlated with NHL save percentage which in turn is correlated with NHL win percentage.” The hypothesis is falsifiable and thus testable so I tried to design a test.

    I spent two weekends going through a list of the goaltenders currently playing in the NHL checking every conceivable source looking for their AHL save percentages if they played in the AHL. Sadly AHL SV% is very hard to get for the full data set. Interestingly enough the data is much easier to get for goaltenders that have large fan bases. Their fan sites (or in some cases Wikipedia) have the needed stats.

    For the current goaltenders for who I could find AHL save percentages I am still trying various statistical tests. It is actually, your assertions aside about it not being real math, quite an interesting mathematical and statistical problem to try to ascertain what assumptions, ranges, and statistical tests to use on such a data set. Is it important how good the team you played on was or wasn’t in either the NHL or AHL and how are we going to evaluate that, for example?

    However, one thing is perfectly clear. The statistical argument (and supporting hypothesis) offered up to slag DD and JDD is totally false. Simple AHL save percentage and NHL save percentage are uncorrelated. SV% goes up, way up for some guys, way down for others, and rarely remains in the same basic ballpark.

    I chose the five guys because they are representative of the trend and famous. Four of the goaltenders presented here come from the data set of current goaltenders. I choose the Hall of Famer specifically because he is spectacular proof that in the population of goaltenders many of the best NHL players wouldn’t have been expected to excel based on what they did in the AHL. The odd nature of my post was an attempt to get people to think about the problem of SV% independent of their prejudices about JDD.

    The same exact argument could be made against this blog's mantra “The Oilers need a big center who can win face offs. Shawn Horcoff is wearing down taking all those defensive zone draws.” This is supported by faceoff percentages and number of own zone draws.

    This is instantly falsifiable. The first sentence is wrong. Faceoff% is at best weakly correlated with winning %. As for the second statement, for all we know Horc lives to take face offs, would hate it if we got somebody who would take the defensive zone work off his shoulders.

    Yet count the posts stating as gospel that we have to get that defensive center. Why do they persist? The simple numbers say the Oilers are poor at taking face offs. We aren’t playing well. Our minds see a correlation that doesn’t exist. The assumption is simple and takes little effort to make an argument for it. The rebuttal is hard and time consuming and invariably falls on deaf ears.

    The mythology is stronger than the facts.

  57. Vic Ferrari says:


    It's a been a long while since I've read the comments to your posts here, so this may have already been covered. But I've seen you reference the AHL save% thing before. I think you're letting the fog of randomness obscure your evaluations regarding goaltending save%. Moreso, I think you're letting your own hope get in the way. Of course when I do that it's charming and delightful, when you do it … shameful!

    Tyler deserves props for this, I thought the imbalance in the AHL sked plus the disparity of team quality in the league would make that information useless. Turns out it's close to spot on.

    That doesn't mean that if a player has a .920 AHL we can apply a conversion factor. If a guy flipped a coin 1000 times and got 520 heads can we assume his coin is weighted to flip heads 52% of the time? Of course not. We're all Lady Luck's willing submissive. What separates us is how much we are paying for the privilege. And of course none of us have ever met the dude who is actually getting paid by LL. That's just a rumour.

    It means we have a good guess at the chances of his coin actually being weighted .920. Or his chances of it being weighted .900 and that he was just lucky in the AHL, or of it being weighted .930 and him was just unlucky in the AHL.

    That model predicts AHL to NHL only coin flipping only slightly better than AHL save% to NHL save%. And that is what matters.

    Ther is no material value to this, unless you happen to running an NHL team. Still worth knowing, though.

    Again, props to Tyler back in the HFboards days. Who'da thunk it?

  58. Black Dog says:

    LT, a true Dad. He's going to be flying into wherever his boy goes to school once every couple of months to make sure his little beer fridge is full and that he gets a good steak dinner in him. 😉

    Showerhead – broil it, don't bake it. If you are careful you can get something reasonable out of it.

    When we lived in Florida we couldn't barbeque, we got an indoor grill (two actually, a George Foreman and an open grill), either is preferable to the oven.

    Seriously son, though, being in school, if you want a steak go out and get one at a diner. School is for bacon and eggs or my favourite – fried ground beef with onions and a little garlic.

    Nothing else. Just a pound or so of that.

    Cheap, filling and tasty.

  59. Lowetide says:

    Vic: I feel like Henry Fonda in 12 Angry Men saying "isn't it possible?" and I'm sure you're right.

    But it does seem to me that Dubnyk is finally playing in front of a team that can play it straight up and damned if his SP isn't .920 or better.

    Would you hold out hope for him or is he dead in the water?

    BDHS: When I was a kid my Dad used to do just that, believe it or not. He'd pop by my work, buy me lunch at the cafe, grab the key to my apartment and stock it with everything then leave the key under the welcome mat.

    Miss that guy.

  60. hunter1909 says:

    Finally, MacT's loyalty pays off for these two.

  61. danny says:

    Any MMA guys here?

    Fedor is fighting on CBS tonight. The show just started, main event around 11:30ish.

    The fight will be over quick. dont miss it.

  62. Showerhead says:

    Ha I had a long post describing the end result of the steak in detail but apparently it didn't get posted.

    Long story short:

    Broiled it. Roughly medium rare which is good. No smoke/fire taste which is bad. Happy enough. Amused by the fatherliness coming from both of you but will chalk it up to a healthy appreciation of a well cooked steak 🙂

    Oh and BDHS: Believe it or not, I enjoy basically the same ground beef meal – only difference being that I tend to crack an egg or two into it as well.

  63. Black Dog says:

    Danny – other than Staples and Mirtle none of those guys show up, well maybe some lurkers

    Who is Fedor Fedorov fighting?

    LT – I believe it.

    Once a year my Dad would come down to Toronto when I was in school. I'd buy tickets in the greens at MLG and he'd come down 69 and then the 400, a pretty awful winter's drive, squalls always coming in off of Georgian Bay. He'd come by my place and we'd walk over to Yonge Street from the university, go out for a good steak dinner and a couple of beers and then catch the game.

    Dads. You can't beat em.

  64. Black Dog says:

    This Swedish kid for the Leafs is having himself a game.

    Showerhead – that was one of my staples for years, minus the egg. When I lived in PEI and started dating the woman who would become my wife she was pretty aghast, my suppers were either that mess or a fry of four or five Italian sausages.

    I remember living in High Park and we were going out Saturday night, all of the guys came in from the =suburbs to drink and then we would go downtown. There was a guy who lived in Welland or Niagara Falls, can't remember, a real nice guy, very softspoken. I actually went on a date with his sister once. Flattest chest I've ever seen.

    Anyhow buddy comes over and I'm cooking my supper and he just couldn't believe it. FOr about ten minutes he just sat and shook his head as I ate it. He was just beside himself.

  65. Showerhead says:

    Haha well all I can say to that is don't knock it until you try it. About the meal I mean. I feel pretty comfortable saying breasts are an essential part of a date.

  66. Black Dog says:

    Agreed, otherwise you're just out with a guy with long hair and a vagina.

  67. Rob Gilgan says:

    Just to ruin your evening – if Hemsky doesn't have the flu, is he being held at home to fatten him up for the big trade everyone wants?

  68. Lowetide says:

    Rob: Na. Hemsky is the straw and the drink at this point.

    Breasts. My son has become fascinated with them, to the point where he talked for over 20 minutes about them this afternoon after I picked him up from his friend's house. His friend's sister has apparently developed over the summer and it is sweater weather and the poor boy doesn't know what hit him.

    Meanwhile, the wife is heavy into the wine….

  69. Vic Ferrari says:


    I think you want to know how may shots the goalie faced against PPs. Did his team face a lot of 5v4 PPs? 5v3 PPs? These are good questions.

    Any illusions of 'shot quality' effects at EV in the NHL have been beaten to thin schnitzel already. In the AHL? I would have though it would be there to an extent that it would be measurable, but it isn't. Kids like Linnaeus can prattle on all they want, but we both know they'll fold like a cheap tent if there was oney on the table. And they should.

    Does a Lemaire goalie face lower shot quality than a Carlyle team? Absolutely … because the Carlyle team will take a boatload of penalties.

    Does a Lemaire goalie face lower shot quality than a Carlyle team at EV? There is not a shred of evidence to support it. You can build a life preserver from minutaie, but it's a big sea and the one fabled tiny island there to land on … it's not on the horizon.

    Asiaoil once showed that Dubnyk faced a crazy number of 5v4 PP shots in the dub, and an absurd number of 5v3 PPs. That's a valid point.

    And sometimes shooters make their shots. Everyone has a memory of turning around and seeing the puck comes towards them, you rip it at net as you turn … top shelf! You're a hero.

    A hell of a shot no doubt, and clutch, baby! You da man! But if you were honest with yourself … if you tried that a thousand times in practice, how many do you make? 5? 20? 30? Does that mean you don't roll about in the love after the game, or don't go home with that Icelandic girl? Hell no! But you were still just lucky.

    Nobody ever thinks about the goalie though. That shit must eff them up. They take so much heat they don't deserve, and so many props they don't deserve … and at every level. No wonder they are the way they are.

    Anyways, point is, sometimes shootoers just make their shots. the goalie's save% suffers, even though he was the same guys. Sht happens.

  70. Black Dog says:

    LT – lol

    I remember having a buddy in high school who had a pool and a younger sister. And then one summer she wasn't a kid anymore.


    And, alcohol is wonderful.

  71. Showerhead says:

    Meanwhile, the wife is heavy into the wine….

    Go do what you must.

    And on that note, I have to pick up some beer and head over to a house full of female Riders fans. Nice people and all, but…

  72. Black Dog says:

    Have fun lads. I too am a fan of Riding but unfortunately the wife is at work tonight.

  73. danny says:

    Ahahaha BDHS

    You crack me up so many ways that I dont even know if you know MMA doesnt even mean MSM.

    Ahahahaha no just kidding, that shit was funny.

    oilogoshpere is legendary.

  74. danny says:

    hey guys. Heres the toughest exercise in my MMA fitness camp ive been doing. its called "the plank".

    Its tough.

    Try it.

    Heres an instructional video so you can focus on form and feel the burn.

  75. SK Oiler Fan says:


    That has to be the youngest and smallest lineup at center to ever touch NHL ice.

    I know they have injuries, but Tambo should be embarassed to give that hand to Quinn.

  76. linnaeus says:

    I'll just quote Ken Dryden (a guy who played a bit of goal).

    "you've got to stop all the ones you should and some of the ones you shouldn't"

    The only question is can JDD and DD do that. If they can they are prospects and if they can't they aren't. At this moment it is impossible to reduce that to math.

    Obviously if Devan raised his save percentage from where it is now (.920) to .953 in the NHL we'd all be pretty impressed. Sound unlikely, meet Nikolai Khabibulin, .874 to .908. Conversely, Kipper, .949 in the AHL down to .912 in the NHL. So if Devan did that we'd be looking at his .920 turning into .883.

    What I am saying, is because we haven't seen either JDD or DD play a lot, in a lot of situations, in the NHL, it is nearly impossible to known if the Oilers have goaltending depth or a ticking time bomb. So we apply our own biases and each see what we want to see. Some of us then resort to trying to prove our preconceptions using numbers.

  77. spOILer says:

    I had no idea Kytnar had been traded to the Giants.

  78. John says:


    God I hope your wife and son do not read this thread

    Son's breast awakening and wife in the wine…………..


  79. Bruce says:

    GW ahl nhl

    236 .839 .912
    403 .949 .919
    305 .908 .908
    212 .895 .887
    389 .895 .906

    Linnaeus: I appreciate what you're trying to do here, but I have issues with your approach. Comparing a Hall of Fame goalie from the 80s and 90s to four active goalies is sure to bring disparities when comparing raw Sv%. The HHoF dude is surely Grant Fuhr cuz I recognize the 403 wins, and he'd also be the guy with the .887 Sv%. How'd he win so many games with such a shitty Sv%? Consider the fact that the year he broke in (1981-82) the league-wide Sv% was .873. League Sv% started edging above .900 toward the very end of his career. Whereas the active guys would all have played all or most of their careers in an era that Sv% was consistently in the .905-.910 range. If you're not calculating Sv% over league, you're already compromised.

    So I decided to look up Grant Fuhr and as I suspected he's the guy with the .839 in the AHL. Fuhr played just 23 games in the AHL over his career; just 2 in the 1999-2000 season when he was 37 years old which was the only "season" he has a recorded Sv%. AHL didn't keep Sv% previously. So that comp is corrupted about 9 ways from Sunday.

    Obviously if Devan raised his save percentage from where it is now (.920) to .953 in the NHL we'd all be pretty impressed. Sound unlikely, meet Nikolai Khabibulin, .874 to .908. Conversely, Kipper, .949 in the AHL down to .912 in the NHL. So if Devan did that we'd be looking at his .920 turning into .883.

    It is a long thing from a linear relationship. .874 to .908 is a reduction in opposition Sh% from 12.6 to 9.2%, or a reduction in goals against per shot of about 27%. .920 to .953 is a reduction in OPP Sh% from 8.0% to 4.7%, an improvement in GA/S of over 40%!

    Even before that, apply a logic test. .908 is middle of the road and attainable while .953 would blow Dominik Hasek's NHL single-season record .937 Sv% out of the water. Sorry, man, but you have to put your numbers in a context which bears some relationship to reality.

  80. Hockey Noob says:

    I know they have injuries, but Tambo should be embarassed to give that hand to Quinn.

    Fun facts… The cap hit of the team we're icing tomorrow (completely excluding players injured/sick) is $43.6 million–if Smid plays (unless I made an error). At center, we have $4.1 million dollars in terms of cap hit for the 4 players who's average age is 22.

  81. Bruce says:

    John: LT neglected to mention whether he too was into the wine, but I have my suspicions.

    Meanwhile, he should be happy indeed that Eskimos play in Calgary and not Regina next Sunday.

  82. Bruce says:

    I also have my suspicions that Mike Milbury has been into the wine tonight. He's been making an ass out of himself on national TV for going on 5 hours now. It's quite pathetic, actually.

  83. doritogrande says:

    I hate Dion Phaneuf a tad less tonight. Ugly just decked Avery with his head down. Brutal, beautiful shoulder shiver and Avery drops like a stone.

    Showerhead LT + BD:

    That conversation seriously made my day. There's some leftover ribeye in the fridge calling to me right now after missing out on dinner on account of work.

  84. Coach pb9617 says:

    Robert Nilsson has performed as well as, and better than (at times), Andrew Cogliano.

    Cogliano has been luckier.


  85. Lowetide says:

    Del Zotto is splendid, just an absolute horse.

  86. kris says:


    Agreed that it's close. Hard to tell ultra crappy from super crappy though.

    Cogs has spent a lot of time centering Moreau on the fourth, and that's a decent excuse, and the fact that he's younger than Nilsson is an excuse too, at least for this season.

  87. Bruce says:

    LT: That effort Del Zotto made there to dive and get the icing call and prevent the tap-in empty netter by Jokinen was above and beyond the call. At the end of a 2:00+ shift it was practically superhuman.

    Kid caught my eye at the Prospects Game here two years ago, looked impressive then but I never would have guessed he'd have such an impact as a teenager. There were lots o' beauty defencemen on display those two nights: Doughty, Bogosian, Pietrangelo, L.Schenn, Del Zotto …

  88. St George says:

    Per CBC After Hours, Hemsky is not on trip due to shoulder injury.

    I'm not sure what's going on, but there sure are a lot of key guys hurt around the league this year.

  89. Hockey Noob says:

    Dubinsky left the Rangers/Calgary name after taking a Phaneuf slap shot to the hand/wrist on a Rangers PK. But yeah, it's been a crazy year for Oilers injuries.

  90. PDO says:

    St. George:

    It's that bitch called Lady Luck.

    I'm watching Game 5 on DVD right now.


    Hell if I know, I must be a glutton for punishment.

    How did Lowe fuck it up so badly? Beauty team that went to the SCF and had NHL'ers loaded throughout the lineup.

    Hell, our bottom 6 forwards in this game are:

    Samsonov, Stoll, Dvorak, Harvey, Moreau and Murray.


    That's not even including Horc/Hemsky/Smyth, Torres/Pisani/Peca..

    How do you fuck that up? Seriously?

    For fucks sake, I need a stronger rum…

  91. Asiaoil says:

    Like any hockey stat – SP is useful within reason – but evaluating goaltending is actually cleaner than other positions because a goalie's job is dominated by a single task – stopping the puck. The good ones stop more pucks than most of their peers and they do it consistently. Typically the good ones show an ability to do this at a young age. Luck, good and bad teams, and all sorts of shit happens, but in the end with enough at bats the quality shows.

    What does this say about JDD and DD? Well neither has shown themselves to be remarkable in any way to this point or to have the makings of anything special since they turned pro. Just look at the list of guys who have out-performed them in the AHL over the years – pretty unremarkable list aside from a few notable exceptions. That doesn't mean they can't turn into Jacques Plante next week – just that it's not very likely and it gets less likely every year they continue to post mediocre results. Nothing too complicated about it at all really.

  92. linnaeus says:


    Sorry for posting at the end of a thread but it wasn't really relevant to your current post.


    My point simply was that there is no linear relationship, nor have I so far found a non-linear relationship though one may emerge, between an individuals AHL and NHL SV% in goaltenders with more than 100 wins in the NHL. The league average for SV% in any given year is irrelevant to my argument. What matters is the variation in SV% for any player and for the population of all goaltenders. Fuhr simply demonstrates that AHL and NHL SV% can diverge significantly.

    I find it hard ot believe SV% would ever be a useful stat since it is a function of:

    a)the team in front of you (Would Chris Osgood have 389 wins and a .906 if he'd played his entire career for the Islanders?)
    b)as you point out, the league and year you play
    c)the equipment you wear and the net behind you
    d)the quality of the competition you face (If your coach picks your spots you can have a great save percentage and tremendous goals against while the guy doing the heavy lifting is getting the crap kicked out of him)
    e)injury, even subtle minor ones can be hell for your SV%
    f)is your team really aggressive and taking a lot of penalities
    g)how much total work you get both in a game and a year, you need a lot to stay sharp but too much can lead to fatigue
    h)again as you pointed out sample size is obviously important but please show me where there is a study that tells us how large a sample you need to reach an opinion. We have no parameters and thus as I said determining ranges and boundaries (like my 100 win rule) is a fascinating problem. I chose 100 wins because it is where the seasonal variation in SV% begins to decrease (though it still remains high)
    i)the strategy utilized by the coach
    j)dumb luck

    Khabibulin and Osgood, two guys still winning their share of games, have .908 and .906 career SV%. Is that then good enough to be a fine pro? In which case Dubnyk seems likely to be a long term NHLer since clearly that isn't an impossible number for him.

    One of my concerns about math and statistics as they are used on hockey blogs is that none of you seem to grasp one of the fundamental tenets of population ecology and set theory. The individual isn't the population!

    Pretend you added all current NHLers AHL and NHL SV% together and divided by the total sample size to get an average (I have actually been trying to get enough data to do this and have the result be meaningful). Now assume you get roughly equal values, that is the AHL SV% for the population = the NHL SV% for the population (and that may be what I find when I have enough data or even a small drop off which is what I originally assumed should happen though so far it actually goes up in my sample).

    It is easy to fall into the trap of saying that AHL SV% predicts NHL SV% and that a player is unlikley to see a large change in their SV% when changing leagues (Devan Dubnyk is unlikely to have his SV% jump by 33% when he joins the NHL).

    However, to know if AHL SV% predicts NHL SV% we need to look deeper. The correct question is how well does any given individual's AHL SV% predict their NHL SV%? Is there a relationship and is it statistically significant and at what level of confidence? (All I am saying is that to date it is clear that individual variation is surprisingly high. Thus refuting claims that it is possible to say JDD or DD aren't legitimate prospects based on their AHL SV%. Management might actually know better than we do.)

    That still wouldn't predict the future of any given individual since clearly their SV% could move within whatever range individual SV%s tend to move. They could even be an outlier, a data point that will move the known range for SV% changes in an individual making the transition from AHL to NHL. To know if it is likely DD will have the sort of upper break that Khabibulin had (in other words the probability) we need to know how often that sort of change is seen. Is the Bulin Wall an exception or a fairly common occurrence?

  93. Dennis says:

    I'm just getting to this thread now and it's obviously cold but I still wanted to say how much I enjoyed it.

    Especially the part about the ground beef because I love that stuff with some onion throw into the mix:)

    Though I was disappointed that Pat saw that poor woman's chest AFTER JUST ONE DATE!

  94. Dennis says:

    Also, in the interest of talking about great Dad's – or parents for that matter – I can recall that I didn't use a lot of my student loan money for food because my folks would always send in groceries if someone was coming in from our neck of the woods and, voila, all of a sudden I had more pocket money.

    Which was always spent in bars:)

  95. Black Dog says:

    Dennis – naw man, I knew what was there, I never saw it though, it was as obvious as that board you laid over the creek to get over it.

    Not even a couple of bumps.

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