As we see more and more players selected from the USHL, BCJHL and the New England leagues whose names change with the seasons, it’s becoming more and more important to get an idea about equivalencies for these boutique leagues. Scott Reynolds of Copper and Blue tackles a lot of things guys like me wouldn’t care to, and his NHLE’s (here) in 2011 looked like this:
- Reynolds: KHL (multiply offense by 0.83), SEL (0.78), CZE (0.74), FNL (0.54), NCAA (0.41), WHL (0.30), OHL (0.30) and QMJHL (0.28); this article for the translations from the USHL (0.27), AJHL (0.16), and BCHL (0.14); and this article for the translations from High School hockey (0.0625). Unfortunately, especially at this early stage in development, there are a lot of leagues that don’t have an NHL equivalency number yet including the U20 leagues from Europe.
That last part from Reynolds is a growing issue. At this year’s draft, Craig Button called the Swedish J20 league the ‘best junior league outside the CHL’ which is both fascinating and (from what I can see) unproven. How do we go about this? Does it make sense to gather the J20 kids who move to SHL season-over-season and use that as an NHLE?
What about the USHL? The .27 number seems aggressive based on conversations I’ve had with scouts (Tom Lynn, others) and observers of the game. The idea here isn’t to call anyone out, or to imply work done in the past has no value. However, what is the best plan of action for this?
Rob Vollman’s Hockey Abstract a year ago was very helpful in updating major junior and the Euro leagues, plus the AHL. I used his AHL numbers and Euro numbers through the draft window, but saw some resistance to the CHL numbers. Where are we, as a community on this?