GOD WILLING AND THE CREEK DON’T RISE

Barring a trade or waiver selection (Edmonton plucked Luke Gazdic a year ago right about now) the Oilers head north out of balance—continuing their streak that goes back to the beginning of the century. Even in 2005-06, the train left the station without a reasonable NHL goalie. If you’re an Oiler fan, it is beyond galling that the Edmonton Oilers can’t get ready on time. Oilers management, in what can only be described as a unique quirk, display a diabolical willingness to avoid massive areas of weakness in the name of hope. It’s another ‘God willing and the creek don’t rise’ opening night roster in the hinterland.

CURRENT OILERS (23 plus IR)

LEFT WING CENTER RIGHT WING
TAYLOR HALL RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS JORDAN EBERLE
BENOIT POULIOT LEON DRAISAITL NAIL YAKUPOV
DAVID PERRON MARK ARCOBELLO
TEDDY PURCELL
MATT HENDRICKS BOYD GORDON
JESSE JOENSUU
LUKE GAZDIC (IR LIKELY) WILL ACTON
   
LEFT DEFENSE RIGHT DEFENSE
OSCAR KLEFBOM JEFF PETRY
NIKITA NIKITIN
MARK FAYNE
ANDREW FERENCE JUSTIN SCHULTZ
DARNELL NURSE BRAD HUNT
 
  GOAL  
  BEN SCRIVENS  
  VIKTOR FASTH

This is a roster that has recovered mightily over the last 15 months from the Tambellini scorched earth era. You can see logic and reason, bets good and better, and holes where the cold and snow will ravage the good work of summer. This is the most pro-MacT blog in the Oilogosphere, and I think the man needs one more summer to get this set. Sign Petry, find the Reasoner, make sure the defense and goaltending is as tight as Watts-Wyman and let the jacks and kings hammer on a drum.

They need another summer.

I think the Oilers finish 10th in the conference and 20th overall, owing to the Hall’s and Nuge’s, a maturing head coach and a mature coach added, and the moves made this summer in bringing in Pouliot, Fayne et al. Here we go!

WAIVERS

Not a lot on waivers today. Jerry D’Amigo is a two-way winger who is undersized and played for Dallas Eakins as a Marlie. If they plucked him it would be for that fourth line winger role Joenssu currently holds. D’Amigo does have a reputation as a solid penalty killer, that might be a reason for some team to take him. Stephane Veilleux is well known to Oilers fans as a Minnesota Wild checker, and he would bring a physical element to the team. Cody Almond is a center with size, but appears to be a project without the puck and possesses limited offensive potential. Zac Dalpe made the AHL All-Rookie team a few years back, but has been unable to sustain the numbers in the ensuing seasons. It’s doubtful anyone takes him, but that 2010-11 season (and playoff) was something. Chris Mueller is a 28-year old center who has been knocking on the door for ages and can probably play. There are guys drawing paychecks in the NHL with the same talent, but these fringe guys have to find someone who believes in them enough to get a full shot—Mueller waits.

There should be more waivers this morning, including (possibly) Kyle Brodziak. That damn Jonathan Willis—who does not sleep—already has the story here.

CRAIG MACTAVISH GETS IT

  • MacT: “If you take the time to listen to them, which everybody does, you can’t help but come away from those conversations realizing that, hey, there is something to these possession numbers that correlates to success and points. We identify good possession players and then we try to obviously cross-reference all that stuff with scouting and all the other more traditional measures. At least in the past it could lead you to identifying some value, some unrecognized value in certain players, but now I think everybody has got somebody looking in those areas.”

Source.

You may ask yourself ‘then why did he send down Marincin?’ and I think the answer is the Oilers value culture and discipline and rewarding hard work more than they do winning at this point in time. It’s a young group, lessons good and bad are being learned. I don’t agree with the Marincin demotion, and can’t understand why the Oilers have chosen to have less than true balance on opening night. Then again, I’ve never understood this team’s curious ability to avoid balance on their opening night roster. Baffling.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

BUJOLD

At 10 this morning, TSN 1260. Bruce McCurdy from Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal breaks down the roster and has instant reaction to the waiver situation. He’s followed by Jeff Hauser from Radio Hauser and NFL talk—the Seahawks are freaky. At 11, Guy Flaming from the Pipeline Show talks Oil Kings and the 2015 draft (Craig Button’s list is out) and we talk to Kent Wilson of Flames Nation about the Calgary NHL team and their outlook for 2014-15.

@Lowetide_ on twitter and 10-1260 via text. See you on the radio!

 

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198 Responses to "GOD WILLING AND THE CREEK DON’T RISE"

  1. nycoil says:

    “I think the Oilers finish 10th in the conference and 20th overall, owing to the Hall’s and Nuge’s, a maturing head coach and a mature coach added, and the moves made this summer in bringing in Pouliot, Fayne et al. Here we go!”

    I think this is exactly right.

    The plan is for the playoffs NEXT season. They nearly talked themselves into going for it this season, but they changed their tune. I really do believe that. Once they couldn’t get the kind of C they wanted, they thought, OK, we may have to make a move. But then they saw that Khaira and Yakimov are a year away from making the big club and they backpedalled: Source, MacT himself saying they thought about keeping them in Edmonton right until the end and how they are less pressed now to find a stop-gap.

    That, plus the “culture change” they are set on enforcing on the likes of Marincin, the development time they are handing Nurse (and Hunt), and it seems to me that the plan is to turn north this year, get into the range of competing for but looking from the outside in at the playoffs, adding one more solid draft pick and having the young, big Cs come up next year and then you may start to see the Oilers buyers at the deadline, etc.

    I’ve seriously come around to thinking that Eakins is our only viable counterbalance against this kind of thinking because his neck is more on the line than MacT’s when it comes to winning this year.

    Playoff hockey returns to E-Town on the 10th anniversary of the Cinderella run, I think. Now, when was that damn arena opening again?

  2. wheatnoil says:

    Brodziak would go a long ways to adding that centre depth. Doesn’t cover for a Nuge injury, but he can do a lot of things at the end of the ice that the Oilers struggle in.

  3. delooper says:

    They’e unbalanced, but the tilt isn’t something you can correct by eye anymore. It’s at the point where you need a level and some shims. Maybe a picture of a table with a marble rolling off it would be more appropriate than your jet takeoff photo.

  4. Hammers says:

    I had just read the Willis piece on Brodziak . As Willis intimated he may be the perfect piece for one year or more .Yea 3 mill but would I ever feel better . Grit , Pk ability , Plays 200′ game , Hell he can even play the wing . Straight up trade Acton and a 4th rd pick for Brodziak . Saves Minny 2.2 or so .

  5. PeOiler says:

    Reminds me of this Devil Makes Three song ’40 Days’: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOf6BVr0xY8

    If the Oilers don’t take themselves seriously it “wouldn’t take long for the river to rise; and won’t be nothing but the sea and the sky.”

  6. speeds says:

    For the sake of argument, Devil’s advocate:

    Maybe MacT has had enough time for things to be a bit better than they are now? Unwinding the Ference and Hendricks deals alone would have left EDM with ~5M to spend on a C.

  7. G Money says:

    You may ask yourself ‘then why did he send down Marincin?’ and I think the answer is the Oilers value culture and discipline and rewarding hard work more than they do winning at this point in time.

    In my career as a manager and executive, I have hired (or approved for hire) something in the order of 300 people. I have fired (or approved for fire) something in the order of 70 people.

    Of those 70 people. something like 60 of them did the job they were hired to do capably. In a number of cases, they were technically better – and recognized as such – than the people kept around.

    Yet it was the right decision in almost every case, as technical merit is just one part of what makes an employee, a team, and a company successful in the long run. And the competitors who swooped laughingly down on those exits usually found out for themselves well within a year why it was the right decision.

    The easy answers to MM’s demotion are: MacT is a dumbass (preferred) or the Oilers don’t value winning.

    Neither of those statements jives with the weight of evidence.

    I suspect there is something more to the equation.

  8. wintoon says:

    I wholeheartedly agree that the Oilers “target for respectability” is 2016. The development of the arena district in Edmonton is a monstrous influence on the thinking of the Oilers brass and ownership.

    Imagine the impetus this development would be given if the Oilers manage to become a contender in 2016. The office towers, restaurants, hotels and peripheral development would explode with business. Furthermore, the down town area would be alive with optimism and people.

    The allure of that one last high ranking draft pick is pretty strong. As a fan I am somewhat impatient but fully respect the massive change which MacT has generated in the line up. With one more summer the results should be close to being a balanced and competitive Oilers team.

  9. G Money says:

    delooper,

    I dunno man! Still looks pretty tilted, just different places than before.

    If you put the wingers on one side of the balance point, and the centres on the other side, the centres would go flying off into the air, with only RNH and Dr. Drai’s massive potential holding things in the atmosphere.

    OTH, if you put the above LHD and RHD list on either side, the LHD go flying off into the sun.

  10. Магия 10 says:

    Doubt Brodziak is on waivers today, but that’s a nice one year bridge over a helluva hole at centre. #canthavenicethings

  11. Hammers says:

    Well LT you pick them at 10th in the west and I am looking at the number of points they should get . I have them at 83-84-85 range and I don’t know where that will get them other than more from the east than the west . Face it the West will again get more points vs the East so a final place may be hard to figure out . Can we say for sure that any of Calgary , Arizona , Nashville, Winnipeg or Vancouver will be below us or that Colorado will slide backwards . If our top line doesn’t get at least 90 goals who knows . Adding that other “C” / winger thats rated higher than Joensuu , Acton , Arco needs to happen just to get close to beating those other western teams listed.

  12. su_dhillon says:

    I’m not sure I buy this sending a message to Marincin about culture or fitness or whatever I think in the end they see what they want to see. Why has there been no messages sent to Jultz in all his time here while he was bleeding chances and goals besides ” You’re going to win a closet of Norris’s”?

    With Marincin I think they see him as a distant #4 to Jultz, Nurse and Klef and no matter how well he plays, his potential will not be not enough in their blue skies and he will be moved. I hope I’m wrong.

  13. neallivingston says:

    I get it, I get it, value discipline & hard work above all. Why didn’t Daniel “Rudy” Ruettiger win the Heisman again? He sure the heck worked his backside off. Hmmmm.

  14. slopitch says:

    If Brodziak goes on waivers, undo a wrong and bring him back.

    That would be 3 centers capable of hard minutes allowing Nuge to have some of the minutes back. As it stands with Arco on the roster, Nuge is gonna have to take on a more defensive role because Drai will be getting the easy deployments.

  15. jfry says:

    wintoon:
    I wholeheartedly agree that the Oilers “target for respectability” is 2016. The development of the arena district in Edmonton is a monstrous influence on the thinking of the Oilers brass and ownership.

    Imagine the impetus this development would be given if the Oilers manage to become a contender in 2016. The office towers, restaurants, hotels and peripheral development would explode with business. Furthermore, the down town area would be alive with optimism and people.

    The allure of that one last high ranking draft pick is pretty strong. As a fan I am somewhat impatient but fully respect the massive change which MacT has generated in the line up. With one more summer the results should be close to being a balanced and competitive Oilers team.

    You really think that they are planning to flip the switch just in time for new arena? That’s putting a lot of confidence in one of the poorest run sports franchises in the last decade. It would be a fairytale story.

    Unicorn anyone? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AkW-EAkClbE

  16. Pouzar says:

    Sidebar: Does anyone know if the opener on Thurs will be available to those of use outside the Sportsnet West regional Area? The game is being broadcast on SN 360 but I have no idea if those of us in MB will be blacked out. I can’t make heads or tails of these things.

  17. BlueNoteNorth says:

    I trust Craig Ramsay.

    Klefbom plays better with Schultz.
    Hunt needs a further look and is waiver eligible is he not?
    Nurse needs a further look and is likely playing with Petry.
    So Marincin is the safe send to OKC for the short haul.

    Trust Craig Ramsay.

  18. delooper says:

    G Money:
    delooper,
    I dunno man!Still looks pretty tilted, just different places than before.

    If you put the wingers on one side of the balance point, and the centres on the other side, the centres would go flying off into the air, with only RNH and Dr. Drai’s massive potential holding things in the atmosphere.

    OTH, if you put the above LHD and RHD list on either side, the LHD go flying off into the sun.

    Sure, but compare that to the situation before Draisaitl with no Yakimov in the minors. The Oilers also have more capable wingers that take some of the stress of the rest of the players. And they’re heavier. A lot of balance has been added.

  19. Ducey says:

    I’d be quite happy with Brodziak for Acton. I think you could play him on the 4th line as a shutdown winger. He could help with faceoffs, move up the lineup every once and a while, and would likely make that 4th line an effective defensive unit.

    It would put the Oilers about $1,000,000 shy of the Cap limit. Not knowing enough about bonuses, I don’t know if that is feasible.

    It seems that they would likely be in a position to trade someone at the deadline (Petry, Brodziak, Hendricks, Purcell) creating some extra room.

  20. Lloyd B. says:

    Slats sent Messier to the farm for lack of discipline. Turned out alright for him.

  21. Pouzar says:

    Is Brodziak a Marty?

  22. Unicorns says:

    I agree with G Money. Unless someone is truly special whom you might build around people need to do what’s asked or trouble starts up soon enough.

    No team will win consistently with players doing things to their own liking – this has been the Oilers, it doesn’t work. The coach also needs to have a good plan and be fair of course, and he needs good players or nothing is going to work.

    Brodziak is a no brainer. He is better than every Oiler centre except Nuge, there is cap, he’s on an expiring deal, he had 24 points last year so how much can they ask?

  23. alice13 says:

    su_dhillon: With Marincin I think they see him as a distant #4 to Jultz, Nurse and Klef and no matter how well he plays, his potential will not be not enough in their blue skies and he will be moved. I hope I’m wrong.

    This idea that MM is in the doghouse and greased for the trading block… I don’t buy it. As sure as thecaptainandrewference is 35, Marincin has a role with this team going forward and throwing him over for a stopgap C doesn’t make any sense at all when you roll the clock forward 12 months.

    [ And If I have to eat these words, I will just have to enjoy the extra helping of Bookie Points ]

  24. G Money says:

    delooper,

    Yes, true. Top to bottom, that’s at least seven legit NHL wingers.

    The seesaw is still pretty unbalanced, but it’s a LOT heavier on both sides than before!

  25. "Frank The Dog" says:

    G Money:
    You may ask yourself ‘then why did he send down Marincin?’ and I think the answer is the Oilers value culture and discipline and rewarding hard work more than they do winning at this point in time.

    In my career as a manager and executive, I have hired (or approved for hire) something in the order of 300 people.I have fired (or approved for fire) something in the order of 70 people.

    Of those 70 people. something like 60 of them did the job they were hired to do capably.In a number of cases, they were technically better – and recognized as such – than the people kept around.

    Yet it was the right decision in almost every case, as technical merit is just one part of what makes an employee, a team, and a company successful in the long run.And the competitors who swooped laughingly down on those exits usually found out for themselves well within a year why it was the right decision.

    The easy answers to MM’s demotion are: MacT is a dumbass (preferred) or the Oilers don’t value winning.

    Neither of those statements jives with the weight of evidence.

    I suspect there is something more to the equation.

    I haven’t hired and fired as many people as you have, but I have been a successful business owner, manager, executive and then consultant for 30+ years myself, and you nailed that one. I take the same approach of course, because any veteran leader knows that to be true, and because I regard this as a bit of a speculative blog I’ve engaged in some extrapolated speculation at times myself. Sometimes right, sometimes horribly wrong, but we can afford to be wrong here because we’re not dealing with people’s lives as we do with our employees.
    I have fired very few employees. The one thing that will always get an employee fired is lack of integrity. As in false timesheets, false expense claims, stuff like that. However I will usually find a way to accommodate someone who may not be as sharp as others if that person shows a high level of integrity and is prepared to work for a wage commensurate with their contribution.
    As for Marincin, I don’t think it is anything mysterious. MM thought he was deeply enough entrenched in the team to be able to slack off a bit on the fitness side. I’m not saying he came in like Theo, just that h took the easy way in adding weight without making sure he didn’t lose speed, or, he turned up fit, but not quite in game shape like the others. I’m thinking that if this is to become a consistent playoff team then the team fitness level needs to be high and consistent.
    So MM can get taught a lesson now, or later when he is waiver eligible, and a little deeper into the bad habits.
    In my experience, and I’m sure yours, the earlier you address issues like the quicker they can get fixed. I’ll bet MM turns up in shape next year, hopefully he’s still here.

  26. "Frank The Dog" says:

    wheatnoil:
    Brodziak would go a long ways to adding that centre depth. Doesn’t cover for a Nuge injury, but he can do a lot of things at the end of the ice that the Oilers struggle in.

    Id be interested in a Corsi comparison between Arco and Brodziak. As for points, Brod’s 2 year average is pretty much equal to Arco’s 1 year abbreviated stint.

    Yes Brod is a $3M big guy, Arco is a $600k little guy, pretty strong on the backcheck, and did as well as Nuge between Hall and Ebs in OKC.
    I’d suggest it would take a significant gap in Corsi to warrant Kyle’s $3M hit.

  27. denny33 says:

    Edmonton Journal’s Jason Gregor nailed a point I was trying to make the other day….

    Dallas Eakins never played what was going to be projected as our starting forward group together.

    This goes against what a lot of coaches did – especially – in the last 2 games of the preseason.

    Gregor:

    How he employed his forwards, however, was rather perplexing. It seemed the pre-season games, especially the final two, were used more to find out who would be the 12th to 14th forwards. I don’t understand why the Oilers focused more on the fringe players instead of trying to find chemistry and line combinations for the players who ultimately will affect the outcome of the game.

    Marc Arcobello was given 1 game to play with regular 2nd line and 3rd line forwards. But that was the 1st preseason game – weeks ago.

    Eakins never played our top line trio once during the preseason.

    In Winnipeg, Paul Maurice has been focusing on getting actual line chemistry for quite some time in the preseason.

  28. denny33 says:

    Pouzar,

    Sidebar: Does anyone know if the opener on Thurs will be available to those of use outside the Sportsnet West regional Area? The game is being broadcast on SN 360 but I have no idea if those of us in MB will be blacked out. I can’t make heads or tails of these things.
    ***************************************************************************************
    As a fellow resident of MB, I am sure it will be blacked out – this is why I forked over the moola to obtain the NHL centre Ice package the last 2 years. Interesting note – depsite that fact – local TSN jets games were still blacked out for me!! Ridiculous.

    Someone else can correct me if I am wrong…

  29. justDOit says:

    I watched the nhl.com west preview last night. The coverage of the teams was about as balanced as the Oilers’ roster – long segments and interviews on the favorites, and a mere mention or two about changes to the lower teams. But it does highlight just how difficult it will be to move up in the west. Sigh…

    As part of their coverage, they went into some depth on the Av’s philosophy wrt advanced stats and strategy. They scoff at corsi, and insist that their strategy to not shoot as much, but hold onto the puck and shoot when the scoring chances are higher, will continue to help them succeed.

    Can’t get a direct link to the piece, but if you go to nhl.com, under the west preview on the main page, you’ll see a link to the Avs if you scroll to the right a bit.

  30. su_dhillon says:

    BTW I love the Bookie Points. And think I have a chance to finish top 5

  31. wintoon says:

    jfry,

    I will agree that the franchise was run poorly prior to the hiring of MacT as the GM. However, since his arrival, the arrows are certainly pointing in a different direction. Furthermore, while Katz is probably a fan first, he does run a rather impressive business empire. Accordingly, I would expect that he is focussed on success and is planning for it to coincide with the massive development associated with the arena district.

    This does not represent flipping a switch but rather the culmination of a longer term plan which was probably arrived at once he and Lowe recognized and acted upon the disaster that was Tambellini.

  32. Woodguy says:

    Re: Craig MacTavish gets it.

    He also said this in the nhl.com piece:

    We don’t always agree on what the analytics say about our own personnel.

    He may “get it” to some point but his personal bias is getting in the way imo.

    Personal bias gets in everyone’s way for many decisions, its why good managers seek input from a variety of sources.

    Thinking about it, we can categorize a couple of the other things you mentioned too such as:

    I think the answer is the Oilers value culture and discipline and rewarding hard work more than they do winning at this point in time.

    I don’t agree with the Marincin demotion, and can’t understand why the Oilers have chosen to have less than true balance on opening night. Then again, I’ve never understood this team’s curious ability to avoid balance on their opening night roster. Baffling

    Its the same thing.

    Personal bias.

    Or as the oilogoshpere likes to say :”Smartest man in the room”

    I think that last year’s debacle gave Eakins and MacTavish some humility, but not enough to remove the SMITR syndrome.

    I like most of what MacT did this year so I can’t totally throw him overboard on Marincin, but its a stunning example of undervaluing some players over others based on what has to be personal bias, because no counting numbers, fancy or not, explain Klef over Marincin and the unadulterated love of Julz.

  33. G Money says:

    justDOit: As part of their coverage, they went into some depth on the Av’s philosophy wrt advanced stats and strategy. They scoff at corsi, and insist that their strategy to not shoot as much, but hold onto the puck and shoot when the scoring chances are higher, will continue to help them succeed.

    This is what every poor Corsi team says. It’s what the Leafs used to explain their results before they went off the cliff.

    Corsi is a two sided equation. Shots for vs shots against. The flip side is – then why are the Avs such a poor Corsi against team? If they’re actually holding on to the puck so much, why is it that they were 26th in the league in Fenwick Against*?

    I’d believe the Avs if they hadn’t required a Vezina quality season from their goalie to make them look like a quality team. But they did, so I don’t.

    * Note – they were actually 22nd in the league in FF – meaning that they’re actually a better shooting team than they are a defending team. Still shit at both though.

  34. jake70 says:

    Pouzar: Sidebar: Does anyone know if the opener on Thurs will be available to those of use outside the Sportsnet West regional Area? The game is being broadcast on SN 360 but I have no idea if those of us in MB will be blacked out. I can’t make heads or tails of these things.

    I am out of market. I have all the SN channels as part of my Bell Aliant package. I do get blacked out when the games are on the regional SN West channel however. The SN 360 channel is a national channel is it not? (sort fo like SN1). Therefore I would expect it would be on nationally…but not 100% certain…..it’s the league/teams, not the network that decides the blackouts if I understand it correctly. Now with this mega Rogers deal thing – who knows how it will all work. Rogers has to make that 5.2B somehow so maybe things will be more restrictive in terms of blackouts – they’ll need more custormers sbuscribing to Center ice etc. to generate revenue.

  35. VanOil says:

    Not on the waiver wire but recently demoted Mikhail Grigorenko still would interest me. He came into camp fit and with a good attitude but Reinhart is be given at least 9 games in the #2 C role. I am not sure what it would cost but I would be comfortable giving up a 2nd round draft pick and a fringe player to inherit some one else’s development problem that is a 1st round talent.

  36. Lowetide says:

    WG: No argument from here. It’s all contained in the Oilers theme song, Superstition. I’ve said it for years. I am encouraged by MacT, and don’t expect him to “get it” all the time. However, additions like Pouliot and Fayne suggest some of the information is reaching him and having an impact.

    Dellow and Ramsay hirings came from eakins, buy Eakins came from MacTavish.

    I disagree with you in one area: It is not a black and white issue.

  37. G Money says:

    Woodguy,

    its why good managers seek input from a variety of sources.

    Are you sure he didn’t?

    but its a stunning example of undervaluing some players over others based on what has to be personal bias

    MacT, Eakins, etc. have the luxury of spending many hours per day, seven days a week watching these players. The pre-season games are small twenty-minute snapshots in time of those players. As outsiders, we have only the games to draw our conclusions from. The team management have a much higher quality of information from which to draw. Correct me if I’m wrong, but MacT et al have said repeatedly something to the effect Klefbom has had a much better camp than Marincin.

    It may indeed be “personal bias”. But it isn’t necessarily so.

  38. Woodguy says:

    G Money:
    You may ask yourself ‘then why did he send down Marincin?’ and I think the answer is the Oilers value culture and discipline and rewarding hard work more than they do winning at this point in time.

    In my career as a manager and executive, I have hired (or approved for hire) something in the order of 300 people.I have fired (or approved for fire) something in the order of 70 people.

    Of those 70 people. something like 60 of them did the job they were hired to do capably.In a number of cases, they were technically better – and recognized as such – than the people kept around.

    Yet it was the right decision in almost every case, as technical merit is just one part of what makes an employee, a team, and a company successful in the long run.And the competitors who swooped laughingly down on those exits usually found out for themselves well within a year why it was the right decision.

    The easy answers to MM’s demotion are: MacT is a dumbass (preferred) or the Oilers don’t value winning.

    Neither of those statements jives with the weight of evidence.

    I suspect there is something more to the equation.

    These are all good points.

    That being said, you have to admit to yourself that you’re not perfect and sometime you hire the wrong guy and fire the wrong guy.

    It happens.

    The worst decision I made was keeping a very good salesman I had for too long.

    There was a myriad of issues that piled up over time, but when I looked at him I still saw a guy who was key to our rapid market share expansion and not someone who had hit a rut and was actually hurting our market share after being a key to growing it.

    I finally made the right decision, as hard as it was, and the company is better for it.

    I stopped using my own bias and listened closer to what everyone else was telling me.

    I stopped discounting metrics that disagreed with my opinion and humbled myself enough to see I was wrong.

  39. delooper says:

    Woodguy:
    Re: Craig MacTavish gets it.

    He also said this in the nhl.com piece:

    We don’t always agree on what the analytics say about our own personnel.

    He may “get it” to some point but his personal bias is getting in the way imo.

    Is that really personal bias, admitting that anyone carrying the banner of analytics can, on occasion, be wrong?

    Everyone can be wrong, regardless of their methods. Hockey has yet to meet the rigorous standards of a formal system.

    IMO people are making too much out of too little. MacTavish has made major strides in the right direction. That’s the only kind of reliable indicator we have. Everything else is people staring too deeply at their belly buttons, trying to determine the weather from tea leaves and auras.

  40. Pouzar says:

    denny33,

    Thx Denny

  41. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    WG: No argument from here. It’s all contained in the Oilers theme song, Superstition. I’ve said it for years. I am encouraged by MacT, and don’t expect him to “get it” all the time. However, additions like Pouliot and Fayne suggest some of the information is reaching him and having an impact.

    Dellow and Ramsay hirings came from eakins, buy Eakins came from MacTavish.

    I disagree with you in one area: It is not a black and white issue.

    It comes across as black and white because of the medium and my habit of writing in absolutes.

    I know its more nuanced, but the same song keeps coming up over and over….

    I stated I liked most of what he did over the summer, but the where MacT differs from the crowd in terms of player evaluation seems to be the same guys that he speaks of glowingly all the time.

    Klef and Jultz are “his guys”, and that’s just the way it is.

  42. stevezie says:

    neallivingston,

    Straw men aren’t just fir old schoolers anymore

  43. Woodguy says:

    G Money,

    Are you sure he didn’t?

    I didn’t say he didn’t.

    MacT, Eakins, etc. have the luxury of spending many hours per day, seven days a week watching these players. The pre-season games are small twenty-minute snapshots in time of those players. As outsiders, we have only the games to draw our conclusions from. The team management have a much higher quality of information from which to draw. Correct me if I’m wrong, but MacT et al have said repeatedly something to the effect Klefbom has had a much better camp than Marincin.
    It may indeed be “personal bias”. But it isn’t necessarily so.

    That’s certainly possible.

    Others inside the org like Stauffer were just as confounded by Klef over Marincin as I was and he watches them every day as well.

  44. justDOit says:

    Pierre LeBrun ‏@Real_ESPNLeBrun 1m1 minute ago
    Blue Jackets claim Adam Cracknell off waivers from LAK

    So this makes Cracknell and Skille that they’ve plucked from the wire.

  45. Woodguy says:

    delooper: Is that really personal bias, admitting that anyone carrying the banner of analytics can, on occasion, be wrong?
    Everyone can be wrong, regardless of their methods. Hockey has yet to meet the rigorous standards of a formal system.
    IMO people are making too much out of too little. MacTavish has made major strides in the right direction. That’s the only kind of reliable indicator we have. Everything else is people staring too deeply at their belly buttons, trying to determine the weather from tea leaves and auras.

    It not wrong to say analytic or the interpretation of them can be wrong.

    Not in the least.

    My hobby horse here is the verbal from MacT about Julz when by every metric, old, new, eyeball, etc says he’s a middling offensive Dman with poor defensive zone work.

    There is a just a vast gap between what we hear about him from the Org compared to how everyone else outside the org sees him that there has to be a disconnect of quite large proportions.

    Either that or MacT doesn’t believe half of what he says in public and its just for consumption of the media, fans and players.

    That could very well be true.

  46. nycoil says:

    Woodguy:

    I think that last year’s debacle gave Eakins and MacTavish some humility, but not enough to remove the SMITR syndrome.

    At first glance, I read that as SMRT syndrome. As in, “I am so smart, S-M-R-T”

    Woodguy:
    G Money,

    Others inside the org like Stauffer were just as confounded by Klef over Marincin as I was and he watches them every day as well.

    Well, if you go back and watch/listen to the relevant segments in the Oilers’ preseason games, Stauffer was dropping all kinds of hints that the Oilers were unhappy with Marincin and he may get cut. Only after he did in fact get cut did he pipe up about his opinion against the matter.

    denny33:
    Edmonton Journal’s Jason Gregor nailed a point I was trying to make the other day….

    Marc Arcobello was given 1 game to play with regular 2nd line and 3rd line forwards. But that was the 1st preseason game – weeks ago.

    Yet, Leon Draisaitl “won the job by outplaying everyone else.” This is the same damn issue as giving Marincin a boat anchor to play with while forcing him to play the wrong side and then saying he wasn’t as good early as Klefbom and Klefa deserved the spot.

    AGAIN, I am going to go back to my breakdown of MacT’s presser and the pattern now we’ve seen from Eakins/MacT over the past two years: There are two sets of standards. One for the high draft pedigree players who are put in positions to succeed and then anointed as having “won their roles,” and those who do not have that going for them and have to work for everything they get.

    The incumbents who have to fail in order to lose their gifted roles: Hall, Nuge, Schultz, Draisaitl, Klefbom, Schultz.
    The uphill climbers held to a different standard and not given the same opportunities: Marincin, Arcobello.

    MacT himself basically said so in his presser.
    I listed the relevant segments yesterday, but it’s all in the first 6 or so minutes of that 20-minute availability he had on cut day, so if you missed it, or are curious, please go have a look at it.

  47. CrazyCoach says:

    Hey Lt,

    Long time no post. Back coaching, so I rarely get time to write but I still read.

    Love the Luke the Drifter reference. I have a feeling Marincin is probably going through the Hank Sr. library right now. Probably singing, “If You Loved Me (Half as Much) to MacT. I still don’t get that move at all.

    Marincin needs to go way back into the Luke the Drifter catalog and listen to “Everything’s OK”, and perhaps change the lyrics a little.

    “Macky T values culture more than good play, but I’m still a livin’, so everything’s OK!”

  48. justDOit says:

    Woodguy: SMITR syndrome

    Adjusted for PC, we get SPITR. Somehow more fitting, no?

  49. mumbai max says:

    The reception for Lowetide online is really becoming a problem, cutting out for extended periods every few minutes. The only time it works flawlessly is during the commercials. More than a little annoying. Must still be training camp in the technical department :-)

  50. Yeti says:

    “Frank The Dog”: Yes Brod is a $3M big guy, Arco is a $600k little guy, pretty strong on the backcheck, and did as well as Nuge between Hall and Ebs in OKC.
    I’d suggest it would take a significant gap in Corsi to warrant Kyle’s $3M hit.

    Frank – the beauty would be to have both, no? Injuries and all that.

  51. Bar_Qu says:

    Woodguy,

    I think its instructive here to recall what Blackdog said in his post yesteday.

    they have to earn back the benefit of the doubt that nobody will give them

    If they come out of the gates gang-busters, then they start earning that benefit of the doubt (about the mix’n’match TC, demoting MM, etc), but if they don’t, then some people need to start looking at the end of their time here. I don’t think a bad start kills the season, but it certainly puts guys like Eakins under the gun and calls into question every decision he’s made in the last 12 months.

    Teams that win get to do head-scratchers simply because they have created good will. Teams that lose simply will not get the same – and I get the sense this year the Oilers fans are going to turn very quickly on the team if they don’t play well right away.

    I predict a new coach by Christmas if they are sub-.400 in the first two months.

  52. vinotintazo says:

    mumbai max,

    yeah :'(

  53. nelson88 says:

    G Money: “You may ask yourself ‘then why did he send down Marincin?’ and I think the answer is the Oilers value culture and discipline and rewarding hard work more than they do winning at this point in time.”In my career as a manager and executive, I have hired (or approved for hire) something in the order of 300 people. I have fired (or approved for fire) something in the order of 70 people.Of those 70 people. something like 60 of them did the job they were hired to do capably. In a number of cases, they were technically better – and recognized as such – than the people kept around.Yet it was the right decision in almost every case, as technical merit is just one part of what makes an employee, a team, and a company successful in the long run. And the competitors who swooped laughingly down on those exits usually found out for themselves well within a year why it was the right decision.The easy answers to MM’s demotion are: MacT is a dumbass (preferred) or the Oilers don’t value winning.Neither of those statements jives with the weight of evidence.I suspect there is something more to the equation.

    I usually find myself in agreement with your posts but I don’t here. You seem to be making the assumption that the “something more to the equation” is purely on MM rather than the potential for Eakins/MacT bias. Both are obviously possible and we are not party to what happens behind the curtain so in fact the real answer/blame likely falls somewhere in the middle as it almost always does.

    I have similar management experience. What burns me, if it is indeed the case here, is that a management team would penalize a player for going home for the off-season in order to prove a point. If the player truly was in improper shape or playing like he deserved a spot on the roster then perhaps that is justified. As far as I can see he had one bad pre-season game (how unusual is that?) and the Oiler mouth pieces have been circling the wagons to suggest he acted as if he was gifted a spot. Nothing in his previous “body language” or decisions, how many of us would go 1/2 way around the world to PG as an 18 year old, would suggest there are any attitude issues with this kid. We don’t know what went on but i’ll take the known history over the Oiler mouth pieces covering their bosses asses.

    As I have said before. MacT and Eakins are both very smart guys. They have also shown themselves to be very pig-headed and susceptible to the “smartest guy in the room syndrome.” With your experience you may well agree that absolutely nothing kills the “culture” and moral of an organization quicker than those type of biased decisions being made at the top and turning out badly.

    I’m an Oiler fan, I hope they win. If they shit the bed out of the gate I will be in line with the pitchforks for the resignation of the two guys who should take the responsibility. I’ll also back it up by handing in the season tickets I bought for the first time this year. MacT has made a lot of good decisions in the past few months but these types of episodes; admittedly from my read of the tea leaves, are a fatal flaw.

  54. Woodguy says:

    justDOit: Adjusted for PC, we get SPITR. Somehow more fitting, no?

    Agreed.

    Given the utter male dominance of executive positions in hockey I hope I can be forgiven.

  55. Woodguy says:

    Bar_Qu:
    Woodguy,

    I think its instructive here to recall what Blackdog said in his post yesteday.

    they have to earn back the benefit of the doubt that nobody will give them

    If they come out of the gates gang-busters, then they start earning that benefit of the doubt (about the mix’n’match TC, demoting MM, etc), but if they don’t, then some people need to start looking at the end of their time here. I don’t think a bad start kills the season, but it certainly puts guys like Eakins under the gun and calls into question every decision he’s made in the last 12 months.

    Teams that win get to do head-scratchers simply because they have created good will. Teams that lose simply will not get the same – and I get the sense this year the Oilers fans are going to turn very quickly on the team if they don’t play well right away.

    I predict a new coach by Christmas if they are sub-.400 in the first two months.

    Agreed.

    Pat’s post was excellent.

    The Oilers management have a history of icing middling to terrible teams for 8 years and never a team with a balanced roster.

    They have no benefit of the doubt from many of us despite the fact that they think winning cups 30 years ago with a hall of famer heavy roster should buy them slack.

    They know about winning after all and Gord knows that different types of roster construction haven’t won in the ensuing 30 years…. wait a minute.

    All this being said I still peg them around 88 points I’d they don’t fuck around with the D too much in Oct.

    Oct is the most favorable part of the schedule and they *must* make hay while the sun shines.

  56. Pretendergast says:

    @TSNbobmckenzie CGY expected to clarify today but sounds as tho shoulder surgery is more likely than not for Sam Bennett. If so, he’ll be out months.

    Chin up calgary, the hockey gords expected the oilers to take him otherwise hed be perfctly healthy.

  57. Clarkenstein says:

    mumbai max:
    The reception for Lowetide online is really becoming a problem, cutting out for extended periods every few minutes. The only time it works flawlessly is during the commercials. More than a little annoying. Must stillbe training camp in the technical department

    I second this emotion! Out right now in fact!! Always “buffering”!

  58. G Money says:

    Woodguy,

    nelson88,

    Just to be clear, my comments are more that the simple explanation (MacT is biased and made a mistake) may be correct, but it also needs to be recognized that there may in fact be more than meets the eye … It’s the black and white that I mostly disagree with…

  59. "Steve" For Real, Let's Undulate "Smith" says:

    Woodguy: Agreed.

    Given the utter male dominance of executive positions in hockey I hope I can be forgiven.

    I think SPITR syndrome is also far more common among men, even adjusting for the fact that all hockey executives are men.

  60. Bar_Qu says:

    Woodguy,

    That’s why I think Eakins is gone if they stumble through this month.

    I hope they exceed my expectations (or meet yours) but count me among the cautiously pessimistic Oilers fans at this point.

    Making a trade for Brodziak where they pay cents on the dollar for the guy, will go a long ways to making me feel better about the start of the year, however.

  61. G Money says:

    Pretendergast,

    Ouch. While bad for the Flambes is generally good for the Oil, I never wish injury on anyone, especially a talented young kid not yet sullied by the Pee of Red.

  62. John Chambers says:

    Pretendergast,

    Flames fans will argue that Bennett will work better as Eichel’s winger anyway.

  63. Younger Oil says:

    John Chambers:
    Pretendergast,

    Flames fans will argue that Bennett will work better as Eichel’s winger anyway.

    According to the geniuses at TSN, Calgary will be drafting 11th OV in the 2015 draft, while the Oilers will be drafting 4th OV.

    http://www.tsn.ca/nhl-power-rankings-october-7-2014-1.100297

    It gave me a good chuckle that they think will be nowhere near the bottom 5.

  64. Truth says:

    Pretendergast:
    @TSNbobmckenzie CGY expected to clarify today but sounds as tho shoulder surgery is more likely than not for Sam Bennett. If so, he’ll be out months.

    This too:

    Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie 4m4 minutes ago
    Bennett suffered a shoulder injury in CGY’s pre-season but he also battled through shoulder issues much of last season in KGN.

    Why the hell would he not just come out with this prior to the draft? It was pretty obvious that 0 pull-ups = shoulder injury. He would probably be looking at a potential late season return to the lineup and would definitely be 100 % coming into next season.

    Some of these recent decisions in the NHL regarding shoulder surgeries are just mind boggling. Get surgery ASAP and get back ASAP, rather than play at less than 100% until you can’t take it anymore and then get surgery. So simple.

  65. kinger_OIL says:

    I too worry as per BarQ. 3 centers with less than what 80 games total in the NHL between them. A top C coming off surgery, and a rookie: yikes! 3 D with less than what 50 games combined, plus one 35-year old vet D who fell off last year, didn’t play in the preseason (nor did Petry) yikes! 2 goalies that “look good on paper”. Some fancy new toys. Huge holes. At the end of the day that first line has to become an elite line in the NHL to have any hope. As for the points prediction game: put me down for a 11 point improvement: 78 points,

    Eakins is gone next off-season, replaced by Bylsma/ Trotz/ Babcock or another NHL coach that isn’t “learning on the job”. Book it!

  66. nycoil says:

    I don’t know about Eakins. I think if the Oilers get off to a slow start, Nurse will get sent back and Eakins will call up Marincin pretty quick, whatever MacT may want. He’s the voice of reason in there at the moment, with Dellow whispering in his ear.

    Seriously, folks. We’ve come full circle. Eakins is the counter-balance to MacT.

  67. Pouzar says:

    jake70: I am out of market. I have all the SN channels as part of my Bell Aliant package. I do get blacked out when the games are on the regional SN West channel however. The SN 360 channel is a national channel is it not? (sort fo like SN1). Therefore I would expect it would be on nationally…but not 100% certain…..it’s the league/teams, not the network that decides the blackouts if I understand it correctly. Now with this mega Rogers deal thing – who knows how it will all work. Rogers has to make that 5.2B somehow so maybe things will be more restrictive in terms of blackouts – they’ll need more custormers sbuscribing to Center ice etc. to generate revenue.

    Jake, the fact that its on SN 360 (a national channel) is throwing me off. I think we “should” be able to see it but I am not 100% convinced that’s the case. I get being blacked out of the regional SN West coverage.

  68. Lois Lowe says:

    Pretendergast,

    The Orange for McDavid odds might actually get worse for Calgary. Icing a raw, 18 year old rookie in the top 6 is guaranteed to cost points in the standings. Calgary will likely replace him with an actual NHLer or tweener who might actually help them win.

  69. Pouzar says:

    mumbai max: The reception for Lowetide online is really becoming a problem, cutting out for extended periods every few minutes. The only time it works flawlessly is during the commercials. More than a little annoying. Must still be training camp in the technical department

    I’ve been saying this for over a year now. Seemed like I was the only one with the issue but it followed me around. *shrug*

  70. raventalon40 says:

    Pretendergast:
    @TSNbobmckenzie CGY expected to clarify today but sounds as tho shoulder surgery is more likely than not for Sam Bennett. If so, he’ll be out months.

    Chin up calgary, the hockey gords expected the oilers to take him otherwise hed be perfctly healthy.

    Hahahaha! Nice pun.

    Looks like the Bennett vs Draisaitl showdown will have to wait another year. Do they let him recover for a few months and bring him back in 2015, or do they assign him back to his Jr Team so that he can come back and dominate in a lesser league while his shoulder heals?

  71. justDOit says:

    Ryan Rishaug ‏@TSNRyanRishaug now47 seconds ago
    Brad Hunt also getting second unit PP time.. And paired with Schultz 5 on 5.

    Hunt/Jultz – yeowza!

  72. Freëəəəəədom 95 says:

    Right as the puck drops on opening night, a few bigwigs at Northlands receive a mysterious text message depicting some flying pigs demolishing a squat dome.

    Somewhere out there Bruce “Ebenezer” Wayne’s Mini Mi rubs his tiny hands together and chortles gleefully, “the playoff revenues are mine, mine, all mine!” before quickly adding “Present company included, of course.”

    “But Boss! What about the Tier One fanbase?” pipes up Mini Mi’s fantasy sidekick, looking up from his 27 mm” Android Nexus [mm” stands for Mini Mi inches]. just in time to elbow the annoyingly rambunctious Chihuahua puppy smack in the ribs.

    “Shut up, Mimikins!” comes a voice from up. “Let them read Proust in purgatory!” comes an almost bellowing voice from under a booming shock of hair, up up up in the top half of the room. “Hey, log roll me another cigarette, would you? That’s a neat trick, and it actually makes for a great smoke,” says the lofty hair.

    “#!&%#*,” fantasy sidekick mutters to himself, nervously eyeing the puppy’s wagging tail as he licks his palm to pull off another broadsheet rolling paper. “There goes my career as media mogul to the insect kingdom. Big Thumb is going to smoke my entire print stock.”

    There were, of course, some other difficulties to overcome in this grand business adventure beginning, it seemed, with grasshopper literacy—clever enough when massed together not to miss a single blade, yet seemingly no interest at all in larger events around them. It must have something to do with grasshopper patience, or lack thereof. There was initially a great uptake among the Praying Mantises, until the hummingbirds walked off the job. Born readers, those clever Mantes, but hard to service. Mini BW’s fantasy sidekick pondered his mounting business obstacles forlornly while lightly tamping a bell-shaped charge into a silver-plated candle snuffer with a flawless mahogany handle. This candle snuffer made for a burdensome shovel, but—you know what?—not an unworkable staff for a Mini Mi fantasy sidekick Friar Tuck. Mini Bruce Wayne fantasy sidekick Almighty! “Come at me now, you ugly bag of folded skin and hypodermic incisors. I’ll soon show you who’s number one in the arena of newspaper kumite.”

    Kiki has meanwhile balled himself up to tug imaginary burrs out of his tarsal notch. Good time to wrap both hands around the long tube and form an even seam. The log rolling comment was a bit of a joke. Mini BW’s fantasy sidekick is much too heavy to step onto the half-formed cigarette without crushing it, but he could definitely log roll a Coke—even one of those minuscule Cokes from the 1950s, back before everyone over the age of forty walked around with a giant gut hanging over their belts resembling what you’d get if a backyard propane tank mated with Shrek’s pillow. Disgusting! Do big people never look up?

    Better work fast—zebra face has finished his assault on the imaginary burr and is looking around for a new project. What kind of insecure evil mastermind names a Chihuahua puppy “Wooki-Kzin” to begin with? Don’t I know it. I filled out the official paperwork myself with a waist-high gold-nibbed fountain pen, even though the mewling ratbag goes by “Kiki” whenever the unwashed are milling around. “Fetch my Japanese smartwatch, Kiki. Fetch my Korean smartwatch, Kiki. Fetch my Irish smartwatch, Kiki. Fetch my niobium cuff links, Kiki. Fetch my graphite air-miles card, Kiki.” Oh, I can hear it, already. Soon that mouthy cur will be everywhere. There’ll be no respite. I’ll get you yet, Kiki, I will. Chmeee schlimazel, Chmee schlimazel, someday I’ll pour beer in your schnozle.

  73. wheatnoil says:

    “Frank The Dog”: Id be interested in a Corsi comparison between Arco and Brodziak. As for points, Brod’s 2 year average is pretty much equal to Arco’s 1 year abbreviated stint.

    Yes Brod is a $3M big guy, Arco is a $600k little guy, pretty strong on the backcheck, and did as well as Nuge between Hall and Ebs in OKC.
    I’d suggest it would take a significant gap in Corsi to warrant Kyle’s $3M hit.

    I don’t view Brodziak as an Arco replacement. I view him as Drai insurance, leading to Arco taking the 3C and Brodziak taking the 3C, or insurance to a Gordon injury. In the meantime I see him taking Joensuu’s spot for a killer D-zone line with Gordon and Hendricks. Overpaid? Yes, absolutely. But Brodziak comes off the books this year.

  74. nycoil says:

    justDOit:
    Ryan Rishaug ‏@TSNRyanRishaugnow47 seconds ago
    Brad Hunt also getting second unit PP time.. And paired with Schultz 5 on 5.

    Hunt/Jultz – yeowza!

    Oh, good gord.

  75. hunter1909 says:

    Reminding everyone there is still time to get in the hunter1909 NHL hockey challenge by predicting the number of points Oilers end up with at the end of the season.

    Anyone posting their prediction on Lowetide is eligible. Previous predictions include:

    Alice13 predicts: 89 points
    Woodguy predicts: 88 points
    NYCOil, Gerta Rauss predicts: 80 points
    Lowetide, Deadmanwaiting predicts: 87 points

    This kind of thing.

    You may place your vote right up to puck drop on opening night(Thursday). Be a Tier One hockey pundit.

    The Oilers? I’m not saying they’re poorly run, but aliens from Mars couldn’t do worse running an NHL franchise.

  76. Henry says:

    At the risk of appearing to defend Oilers management, could we consider the possibility that Marincin and Gernat came into camp out of shape for professional NHL hockey and Nurse and Klefbom were in good condition. Maybe the message to Marincin is simply ‘use October in OKC to get yourself in shape to dominate with more than just a good stick.’ My copper coloured glasses at least hope it is something like that.

  77. Henry says:

    hunter1909,

    Hank predicted 95 points foolishly.

  78. justDOit says:

    hunter1909: aliens from Mars couldn’t do worse running an NHL franchise.

    Telepathy would go a long way to helping a Hunt/Jultz pairing!

  79. RexLibris says:

    Lois Lowe:
    Pretendergast,

    The Orange for McDavid odds might actually get worse for Calgary. Icing a raw, 18 year old rookie in the top 6 is guaranteed to cost points in the standings. Calgary will likely replace him with an actual NHLer or tweener who might actually help them win.

    I don’t think the Flames were committed to having Bennett on the team. The roster still lists 26 players and I had assumed that Bennett and Potter would be cut with one other (Granlund, maybe) placed on IR.

    I haven’t found anything on their site listing the final roster.

  80. Barcs says:

    If the Wild are truly trying to get rid of Brodziak, I wonder if they would hold some of his cap hit in exchange for a mid pick. He could be immensely useful as our D-zone line RW and replacement C.

    I am also very curious if DAL would be receptive to trading Eakin. If you offer Petry and a 2nd round pick or some such such I wonder if that is a fit. DAL could use a steady RH D-man, and it seems to me that although Petry would of course be very helpful to the Oilers, we are better able now to handle that hit to our D core if Klefbom and MM remain capable. Whereas our C situation is in more need.

    Something to the effect of:

    Hall Nuge Ebs
    Perron Eakin Purcell
    Pouliot Drai Yak
    Hendricks Gordon Brodziak

    Marincin Fayne
    Klefbom Schultz
    Nikitin Ference
    Hunt
    (Maybe Nurse in there too if he makes it)

  81. jake70 says:

    justDOit: Ryan Rishaug ‏@TSNRyanRishaug now47 seconds agoBrad Hunt also getting second unit PP time.. And paired with Schultz 5 on 5.Hunt/Jultz – yeowza!

    I can hear Captain Quint singing with that smirk on his face then breaking into laughter —“Farwell and adieu to you fair spanish ladies….”

  82. ashley says:

    hunter1909,

    96 and a ticket to the dance.

  83. VanOil says:

    hunter1909:
    Reminding everyone there is still time to get in the hunter1909 NHL hockey challenge by predicting the number of points Oilers end up with at the end of the season.

    Anyone posting their prediction on Lowetide is eligible. Previous predictions include:

    Alice13 predicts: 89 points
    Woodguy predicts: 88 points
    NYCOil, Gerta Rauss predicts: 80 points
    Lowetide, Deadmanwaiting predicts: 87 points

    This kind of thing.

    You may place your vote right up to puck drop on opening night(Thursday). Be a Tier One hockey pundit.

    The Oilers? I’m not saying they’re poorly run, but aliens from Mars couldn’t do worse running an NHL franchise.

    After mucho waffling I am sticking with a Marincin of points, 85. I feel he will prove to be the bellwether of the season.

  84. saddleblazer says:

    hunter1909,

    81 points. But I love their chances.

  85. VanOil says:

    For a while now we have been looking for a ‘I can go to the bathroom now’ pair of defenders for the Oilers. Jultz-Hunt represent a different take on this concept as they would be a ‘I am going to the bathroom now’ set of defenders.

  86. raventalon40 says:

    justDOit: Telepathy would go a long way to helping a Hunt/Jultz pairing!

    So Hunt is the new Marc-Andre Bergeron

  87. "Frank The Dog" says:

    Yeti: Frank – the beauty would be to have both, no? Injuries and all that.

    Yes, both, I suppose. But sans injuries or poor play and the bias of this board I’d see it as an Arco replacement simply because of the meme that little fish cant survive with great white sharks, which I’m pushing back against. the meme seems credible bbt isn’t correct, Arco has defied the odds in this area.
    I would not be surprised if MacT has a deal in his pocket to trade for Brod if we falter at C early on, in which case I’d totally support that. But for now, let’s see how well the rubber we have holds to the road.

  88. justDOit says:

    VanOil: I am going to the bathroom now’ set of defenders.

    Dependers.

    ftfy

  89. soup says:

    Hunter – Mark me down for 90. I think the added weight up front and a couple of real defensement will make a huge impact on this team.

    WRT the MacT debate – I suppose I will never forgive him for bringing the trap to Edmonton. Worst part was that he saw the instant gratification of the cup run, then came back and ‘systemed’ the Oilers to death for the rest of his time as coach. When Betman came out of the big lock out and said “Let’s Play Oilers Hockey” I’m certain he didn’t mean garbage we saw post cup run. Blame the personnel decisions all you want, but the Coach holds more credit than he gets on this blog.

    Oilers used to be the most fun team in the NHL to watch, even with more losses than wins. And really, it is the entertainment business afterall. This GM was the Coach that killed the Golden Goose as far as I’m concerned. He’ll never be the smartest man in the room for me.

    Clearly, nor will I.

  90. Yeti says:

    Hunter – mark me down for 69, because we deserve some pleasure before the inevitable pain.

  91. "Frank The Dog" says:

    Henry:
    At the risk of appearing to defend Oilers management, could we consider the possibility that Marincin and Gernat came into camp out of shape for professional NHL hockey and Nurse and Klefbom were in good condition.Maybe the message to Marincin is simply ‘use October in OKC to get yourself in shape to dominate with more than just a good stick.’My copper coloured glasses at least hope it is something like that.

    “And while you’re there, learn to play on the right side” and, “Hey Todd! teach this guy to play on the right side, ok? “

  92. Yeti says:

    “Frank The Dog”: Arco has defied the odds in this area.

    I agree, but I quite like the idea of Brodz and Arco on the same line.

  93. Pouzar says:

    Friedman on Dustin Penner.

    “I think there was a team or two, maybe Edmonton, that looked at Penner.”

    “I know that teams looked at Penner and said no.”

  94. VanOil says:

    justDOit: Dependers.

    ftfy

    Perfect

  95. Woodguy says:

    Lines at practice as per Bob:

    Hall-RNH-Eberle
    Pouliot-Drasaitl-Yakupov
    Perron-Arcobello-Purcel
    Hendricks-Gordon-Joensuu
    Acton-Gazdic

    UNICORNS AHOY!!!!

    As much shit as I’ve dished out, full marks for building a team that can run 3 scoring lines and a tough minute checking line.

    That is the ideal way to maximize the scoring potential of every forward who has potential to score.

    Pouliot has a hip-flexor issue and Action took his spot today, but should be good for Thursday.

    Good stuff.

  96. "Steve" For Real, Let's Undulate "Smith" says:

    Woodguy:
    As much shit as I’ve dished out, full marks for building a team that can run 3 scoring lines and a tough minute checking line.

    Do we have much basis to believe that Hendricks and (especially) Joensuu can handle tough minutes?

    That’s a sincere question, by the way, not a snarky one.

  97. Woodguy says:

    Dpairs at practice as per Bpb:

    Nikitin-Fayne
    Ference-Petry
    Hunt-J Schultz
    Klefbom-Nurse

    Nikitin not 100% to go on Thursday, but practiced today except PP2. (Hunt)

    I mentioned in one of my 324134 diatribes about Marincin that the sin wasn’t as egregious if Nikitin was good to go.

    I pray to various Gords that he is.

    I’d much rather see Marincin-Petry on 2nd or even Marincin-Jultz on 3rd .

    Jultz needs all the help he can get and he’ll play behind Rook-Yak at lot due to OZ starts so putting Marincin on 3rd pair with Jultz might not be a bad idea, but I really don’t like Ference above 3rd pair anymore, he just doesn’t have it.

  98. godot10 says:

    justDOit:

    As part of their coverage, they went into some depth on the Av’s philosophy wrt advanced stats and strategy. They scoff at corsi, and insist that their strategy to not shoot as much, but hold onto the puck and shoot when the scoring chances are higher, will continue to help them succeed.

    Corsi is a proxy for zone time, generally and historically. But if the Avalanche are intentionally trying to “break” that correlation, one should/hasto go actually look at zone time, and see if their rhetoric matches reality, and the Avalanche have less correlation between Corsi and zone time compared the average team.

    Normally a dominant Corsi will imply a dominant zone time, and a horrid Corsi will imply a horrid zone time.

    Someone would actually have to look at the zone times of the Avalance to see if they are full of it, or not. Or one can just see if mean reversion occurs, and the Avalanche fall back.

    Dellow, before he was swallowed up by the Oil slick, demonstrated that New Jersey was playing differently than everyone else. But their Corsi outperformance led to mediocre results two years in a row, narrowly missing the playoffs twice (maybe bad Brodeur goaltending though).

  99. Henry says:

    "Frank The Dog": “And while you’re there, learn to play on the right side”and, “Hey Todd! teach this guy to play on the right side, ok? ”

    I love Marincin, but don’t want them to have any more reason to trade Petry.

  100. "Steve" For Real, Let's Undulate "Smith" says:

    godot10: Corsi is a proxy for zone time, generally and historically.But if the Avalanche are intentionally trying to “break” that correlation, one should/hasto go actually look at zone time, and see if their rhetoric matches reality, and the Avalanche have less correlation between Corsi and zone time compared the average team.

    Normally a dominant Corsi will imply a dominant zone time, and a horrid Corsi will imply a horrid zone time.

    Someone would actually have to look at the zone times of the Avalance to see if they are full of it, or not.Or one can just see if mean reversion occurs, and the Avalanche fall back.

    Dellow, before he was swallowed up by the Oil slick, demonstrated that New Jersey was playing differently than everyone else.But their Corsi outperformance led to mediocre results two years in a row, narrowly missing the playoffs twice (maybe bad Brodeur goaltending though).

    This the kind of great post you manage when you stop thinking about Dallas Eakins for three minutes; more, please.

  101. Woodguy says:

    “Steve” For Real, Let’s Undulate “Smith”: Do we have much basis to believe that Hendricks and (especially) Joensuu can handle tough minutes?

    That’s a sincere question, by the way, not a snarky one.

    Given that they are an “off-the-glass-and-out” line then Joensuu can.

    I agree with Bob that if the Oilers truly made cuts based on camp performance then Hendricks should have been sent down and Pitlick or Lander kept.

    I’d much, much, much rather have Lander or Pitlick there than Hendricks.

    So in short no they need better skaters, but having the concept working is a very good thing.

    Maybe someone takes Hendricks job this year and I doubt Joensuu’s back stays healthy all year.

  102. Protagonist says:

    I’ll go with a Teuvo Teravainen level of points and say 86. Right in the middle of the rest of the predictions, and with a Fin to boot.

  103. Магия 10 says:

    godot10: if the Avalanche are intentionally trying to “break” that correlation,

    Any philosophy to shoot more or less (across the board or by situation or even by player) is going to change corsi numbers whether or not it is a good strategy in the long term. Evaluating the merits of the strategy would involve more than measuring corsi. But once you factor in the context the coaches have corsi will still tell them about player’s possession. NBA teams are using on court tracking to measure players adherence to tactical rules of play and the results accruing. Shooting/passing tactics could be benchmarked with home arena cameras.

  104. Woodguy says:

    godot10: Corsi is a proxy for zone time, generally and historically.But if the Avalanche are intentionally trying to “break” that correlation, one should/hasto go actually look at zone time, and see if their rhetoric matches reality, and the Avalanche have less correlation between Corsi and zone time compared the average team.

    Normally a dominant Corsi will imply a dominant zone time, and a horrid Corsi will imply a horrid zone time.

    Someone would actually have to look at the zone times of the Avalance to see if they are full of it, or not.Or one can just see if mean reversion occurs, and the Avalanche fall back.

    Dellow, before he was swallowed up by the Oil slick, demonstrated that New Jersey was playing differently than everyone else.But their Corsi outperformance led to mediocre results two years in a row, narrowly missing the playoffs twice (maybe bad Brodeur goaltending though).

    Someone pointed out on twitter that if the Av’s zone time was actually greater than their corsi, then it should show up in corsi against because their opposition would have the puck less despite the Av’s not having a ton of shot attempts.

    Last year the Av’s were:

    Corsi For/60 51.72 – 21st in NHL

    Corsi Against/60 – 58.67/60 26th in the NHL

    (courtesy war-on-ice : http://war-on-ice.com/teamtable.html)

    I’d say their rhetoric doesn’t jibe with the results.

    Being the 5th worst in the NHL is shot attempts against/60 doesn’t speak to any kind of decent ozone time.

  105. Woodguy says:

    “Steve” For Real, Let’s Undulate “Smith”: Do we have much basis to believe that Hendricks and (especially) Joensuu can handle tough minutes?

    That’s a sincere question, by the way, not a snarky one.

    Further to my previous post, if the Oilers had better skaters than Hendricks and Joensuu then I would expect that line to be more than “off-the-glass-and-out” and actually be able to make the opposition’s best players defend more.

    Skating is the key I think as they’d need to skate the puck out of the zone a lot and make the opp’s elite forwards back check more rather than just leave the zone and circle for another attack when just banging the puck out.

  106. godot10 says:

    Truth: This too:

    Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie4m4 minutes ago
    Bennett suffered a shoulder injury in CGY’s pre-season but he also battled through shoulder issues much of last season in KGN.

    Why the hell would he not just come out with this prior to the draft?It was pretty obvious that 0 pull-ups = shoulder injury. He would probably be looking at a potential late season return to the lineup and would definitely be 100 % coming into next season.

    Some of these recent decisions in the NHL regarding shoulder surgeries are just mind boggling.Get surgery ASAP and get back ASAP, rather than play at less than 100% until you can’t take it anymore and then get surgery.So simple.

    It was Bennett’s draft year, so he played through discomfort, and was arguably the the best player in the draft, One probably gets a better choice of surgeons post draft than pre-draft, and better rehabilitation support and resources. Not to mention that top 4 signing bonus money is a lot better than mid first round or lower signing money.

    Actually, not much dffierent than Nugent-Hopkins in this regard, who played through his last season of junior and his first 1.5 NHL seasons with shoulder issues.

  107. Magnus says:

    Woodguy:
    Re: Craig MacTavish gets it.

    I like most of what MacT did this year so I can’t totally throw him overboard on Marincin, but its a stunning example of undervaluing some players over others based on what has to be personal bias, because no counting numbers, fancy or not, explain Klef over Marincin and the unadulterated love of Julz.

    MacT has a long history of personal bias with players from his coaching days. While we can debate the logic in employing players like Toby Peterson more than many fans would have liked, I don’t think we can deny that MacT’s treatment of players like Smid and Penner in the past show a marked personal bias that went against what the math said about the effectiveness of these players.

    When he was hired, I brought up this history of bias as a reason I was not thrilled about MacT as GM. A GM who puts personal opinions ahead of, and in conflict with what other sources of information are clearly telling him, is a GM who is not doing what’s best for the team and putting his ego ahead of unbiased decision making.

    Many complain about the failings of the team’s pro-scouts and odd decisions in amateur scouting. As GM, MacT has the final word on all these decisions, and in many cases has scouted the same players. Obviously he agrees with what the scouts are telling him. I sometimes have serious doubts about his judgement of talent.

  108. commonfan14 says:

    hunter1909,

    65 points.

    Bye, Bye MacT, Lowe and Eakins.

    Hello Connor McDavid.

  109. hoser313 says:

    hunter1909,

    81 points on the year.

    Team is improved but 2nd line will struggle in the West and unclear to me how we shelter 3 rookie D.

  110. justDOit says:

    commonfan14: Hello Connor McDavid

    Rabid for McDavid!

    (can a brother get some artistic license love?)

  111. ashley says:

    godot10: It was Bennett’s draft year, so he played through discomfort, and was arguably the the best player in the draft,One probably gets a better choice of surgeons post draft than pre-draft, and better rehabilitation support and resources.Not to mention that top 4 signing bonus money is a lot better than mid first round or lower signing money.

    Actually, not much dffierent than Nugent-Hopkins in this regard, who played through his last season of junior and his first 1.5 NHL seasons with shoulder issues.

    Not to mention the value of draft pedigree beyond ELC and well into his career.

    Even if he totally shts the bed after the draft, he can at least count on another two 3-4 year 7 figure contracts based on draft position alone.

    Cam Barker comes to mind.

    Draft number is a huge deal for these kids. The difference between number 4 and 14 can be millions over their careers.

  112. LostBoy says:

    TSN says no rotating assistant captains this year, Hall and Eberle to be fulltime assistants.

    http://www.tsn.ca/eberle-hall-return-as-oilers-alternate-captains-1.101346

  113. "Frank The Dog" says:

    nycoil:
    I don’t know about Eakins. I think if the Oilers get off to a slow start, Nurse will get sent back and Eakins will call up Marincin pretty quick, whatever MacT may want. He’s the voice of reason in there at the moment, with Dellow whispering in his ear.

    Seriously, folks. We’ve come full circle. Eakins is the counter-balance to MacT.

    He not only has Dellow whispering in one ear, he has Rocky calling down the other team’s moves from the press box and the reasoned advice from Craig, all the while, the Associate Coach stands expressionless, appearing to stare at the ice. Does anyone know what he actually does on this team? Aside from recuse himself from discussions about his son.

  114. "Frank The Dog" says:

    hunter1909,

    Let’s say this team does the following:
    1) Wins the 9 games that went to OT or SO last year: 9 points
    2) Win half the 1 and half the 2 goal losses of last year, understanding the fact of open net goals.: 10 points.

    Add 19 points to the 67 this pathetic excuse of a team got last year with the smartest Assistant Coaches in the Room, a 2C who couldn’t/wouldn’t defend, light unmotivated wings, confused incompetent D, and we have 86 points.

    So put me down for 86 please.

  115. Adam Wu says:

    Does anyone doing advanced stats measure zone-time? It seems like a logical thing to do, and not that difficult (stopwatch on, stopwatch off, one stopwatch for each team’s o-zone). They do time of possession in other sports, afaik.

    If zone time is what we really want then it seems to me directly measuring it isn’t hard, and better than casting about for proxy measurements like Corsi.

  116. OilClog says:

    Hunt with Schultz… Like wtf is with this team.

    Who was saying Hunt isn’t going to see ice time?? Looks like you need to rethink things.

  117. Truth says:

    godot10: It was Bennett’s draft year, so he played through discomfort, and was arguably the the best player in the draft,One probably gets a better choice of surgeons post draft than pre-draft, and better rehabilitation support and resources.Not to mention that top 4 signing bonus money is a lot better than mid first round or lower signing money.

    Actually, not much dffierent than Nugent-Hopkins in this regard, who played through his last season of junior and his first 1.5 NHL seasons with shoulder issues.

    Then why wouldn’t he go for Surgery in the weeks after being drafted by Calgary. Why waste the entire summer of recovery time. He did zero pull-ups in the combine, did that drop his draft stock more than being known as player that could turn into the next Toews plus did the right thing and missed half a season to repair his shoulder in time for the ’14-’15 season?

    I’ve always maintained that the Oilers were stupid for doing that with RNH. I cannot understand the concept of playing at less than 100% when surgery is an absolute and recovery is all but guaranteed following surgery. If RNH has 12 years in the league, why play him for 1.5 years at less than his best ability when you know there is undoubtedly a 5 month period he is going to miss for recovery? Do it ASAP and get him to 100%

  118. tubes says:

    Maybe Hunt/Jultz as a heavily sheltered, offensive zone start line. Similar to Yandle’s use. Could do some damage with the puck in the o-zone and weak competition.

  119. Truth says:

    hunter1909,
    I’ll take 78 points. What happens if the words Nuge and MCL appear in the same sentence at any point this season? McDavid?

  120. denny33 says:

    hunter1909,

    I was one of the first out of the gates with 86…..

  121. raventalon40 says:

    hunter1909:
    Reminding everyone there is still time to get in the hunter1909 NHL hockey challenge by predicting the number of points Oilers end up with at the end of the season.

    Anyone posting their prediction on Lowetide is eligible. Previous predictions include:

    Alice13 predicts: 89 points
    Woodguy predicts: 88 points
    NYCOil, Gerta Rauss predicts: 80 points
    Lowetide, Deadmanwaiting predicts: 87 points

    This kind of thing.

    You may place your vote right up to puck drop on opening night(Thursday). Be a Tier One hockey pundit.

    The Oilers? I’m not saying they’re poorly run, but aliens from Mars couldn’t do worse running an NHL franchise.

    92 points, and just miss the playoffs by one point.

  122. tubes says:

    I’ll take 79 points. 33 wins and 13 loser points.

  123. godot10 says:

    Yeti:
    Hunter – mark me down for 69, because we deserve some pleasure before the inevitable pain.

    Damn. I wanted to be the low bid. I’m still at 72 or one point below the next highest bid (which I believe is 75. I believe there was a 75.)

    But since there is a 69. I’ll just go flat out with 73 points. Given a choice, pick a prime.

    godot10: 73 points

  124. book¡je says:

    Pouzar:
    Friedman on Dustin Penner.

    “I think there was a team or two, maybe Edmonton, that looked at Penner.”

    “I know that teams looked at Penner and said no.”

    Unreal that Penner can’t get a look for a 3rd line role somewhere. The guy must have deep deep sideburns.

    Does anyone have any insight into this? I know he is snarky and probably doesn’t restrain himself when dealing with coaches. I also know that he is a guy with a big body who doesn’t use his big body.

    But he seems like a bargain for $1million a year to play on your third line, no?

  125. Yeti says:

    book¡je,

    Pancakes, Book!je, pancakes.

  126. denny33 says:

    hunter1909,

    Is the prize still an all expense paid trip to Hawaii in January?

  127. Магия 10 says:

    Woodguy: Someone pointed out on twitter that if the Av’s zone time was actually greater than their corsi, then it should show up in corsi against because their opposition would have the puck less despite the Av’s not having a ton of shot attempts.

    Nice. Don’t have to go far to find a test measure.

  128. Woodguy says:

    Adam Wu:
    Does anyone doing advanced stats measure zone-time? It seems like a logical thing to do, and not that difficult (stopwatch on, stopwatch off, one stopwatch for each team’s o-zone). They do time of possession in other sports, afaik.

    If zone time is what we really want then it seems to me directly measuring it isn’t hard, and better than casting about for proxy measurements like Corsi.

    Yes, VIc did a correlation back in the day.

    I went to link to it but Vi’c site is locked down now.

    That was one of the basis of VIc;s work, that corsi was an excellent proxy for zone time.

    NHL used to keep zone time and Vic found the correlation to be very good.

    More recently others have actually done the stop watch thing and found correlations closer than Vic did.

    I’m sure you can find some if you google them and they haven’t been shutters (like Tyler’s site)

    So, yes the work’s been done and yes the correlation is very good.

    Also,

    The other question that comes up is scoring chances to corsi and the correlation of scoring chances that are manually tracked and corsi are excellent as well time and again when its looked at.

    That’s the power of corsi that many don’t quite get because they haven’t seen the previous work (or don’t believe it when you tell them)

    You can use corsi for scoring chances and zone time and that allows you to spring off in all kinds of directions for strategy

  129. Woodguy says:

    Adam Wu,

    If zone time is what we really want then it seems to me directly measuring it isn’t hard, and better than casting about for proxy measurements like Corsi.

    But measuring it is hard.

    You have to sit there with a stop watch for all 1230 games.

    Or just go to a website that scrapes the game sheets for corsi and you have something so close that its basically the same thing.

  130. godot10 says:

    Truth: Then why wouldn’t he go for Surgery in the weeks after being drafted by Calgary.Why waste the entire summer of recovery time.He did zero pull-ups in the combine, did that drop his draft stock more than being known as player that could turn into the next Toews plus did the right thing and missed half a season to repair his shoulder in time for the ’14-’15 season?

    You want to eat up a year of that ELC, which is why you try playing with it. Bennett’s luck ran out. He needed to get 10 actual games under his belt to kill a year of the ELC.

  131. justDOit says:

    denny33:
    hunter1909,

    Is the prize still an all expense paid trip to Hawaii in January?

    Depends on how the Oilers do in the regular season. If they exceed expectations, and Hunter is the new king of Proline, then it’s Hawaii. If they flounder again, it’s Nisku.

  132. justDOit says:

    Woodguy: But measuring it is hard.

    Until we get RFID chips in all the sticks, and a transponder inside the puck.

  133. justDOit says:

    NJ signed Tootoo, and have asked Gomez to stay in camp until they can figure out a roster spot for him.

    Because SPITR?

  134. LMHF#1 says:

    justDOit: Until we get RFID chips in all the sticks, and a transponder inside the puck.

    Which should be both easy and cheap – no?

  135. delooper says:

    An issue with zone time as a metric is it does not differentiate between George Laraque and Wayne Gretzky.

    Laraque was great at holding the puck in the offensive zone. But he had a hard time getting it into the net, and he wasn’t able to use his abilities to help his linemates get the puck all that much, either.

  136. justDOit says:

    LMHF#1: Which should be both easy and cheap – no?

    Sticks, yes. Puck? Not so much. Many factors to hurdle – power consumption primarily, but component durability and weight/balance of the puck are up there as well.

    Edit: Unless the transponder was under the ice, and then the puck and sticks only need rfid. Then when you process the data, you can tell where the puck is at all times, and whose stick it’s on (or very close to). Spitballing here…

  137. Adam Wu says:

    LMHF#1: Which should be both easy and cheap – no?

    It would be easy and cheap, but it would require the NHL to buy in to it, since they’re the ones actually doing all the work in that case.

    From the NHL’s point of view, it would boil down to whether taking that additional set of stats helps them sell the game more, from the financial point of view, I would think.

    (But one has to wonder how durable transponders would be inside pucks, given the accelerations they go through, and how many pucks you go through in any given game. It might actually add up to quite a bit.)

  138. LMHF#1 says:

    justDOit: Sticks, yes. Puck? Not so much. Many factors to hurdle – power consumption primarily, butcomponent durability and weight/balance of the puck are up there as well.

    Certainly less complicated than the FoxTrax Puck I assume.

  139. Lowetide says:

    A reminder that long posts with lots of links get caught in the moderator thingy. A perfectly wonderful post is at 12:10pm, hope you read it.

  140. Магия 10 says:

    Woodguy: You can use corsi for scoring chances and zone time and that allows you to spring off in all kinds of directions for strategy

    If you have both you can directly disprove the value of any strategy that defers shot taking.

  141. justDOit says:

    LMHF#1: Certainly less complicated than the FoxTrax Puck I assume.

    Actually the fox puck was pretty simple, although the details escape me at the moment. I still wish they used it – for the viewfinders in the cameras only!

  142. 719 says:

    justDOit:
    NJ signed Tootoo, and have asked Gomez to stay in camp until they can figure out a roster spot for him.

    Because SPITR?

    Reading the tea leaves (sorry for the speculation on this analytics blog)

    Stauffer suggests a Marincin Trade for an overpriced 2nd or 3rd center.

    LT suggest Marincin will be picked up by a smart GM (he states Kenny H in Det, but L.L. is a pretty smart guy too)

    NJ is currently carrying only 6 defencemen. Henrique is an overpriced 3rd line center, and they want to open up that spot for Gomez (so it seems by the verbiage from L.L.)

    Marincin traded for Henrique?

  143. Adam Wu says:

    delooper:
    An issue with zone time as a metric is it does not differentiate between George Laraque and Wayne Gretzky.

    Laraque was great at holding the puck in the offensive zone.But he had a hard time getting it into the net, and he wasn’t able to use his abilities to help his linemates get the puck all that much, either.

    This is true, but then Corsi doesn’t really differentiate between a shot off Gretzky’s stick and a shot of Laraque’s stick either, right?

    That really boils down to the issue of shot quality, and iirc that’s never been really successfully quantified and correlated, has it?

    I also recall that there was some substantial benefit to Laraque holding the puck in the offensive zone as well, inasmuch as it meant the puck was not in his own team’s zone, and instead trapped dead in the other corner, and if Laraque was on against the opponent’s scoring lines, it often meant the end of the shift for them by the time the puck was dug out or frozen for a whistle, and it meant the opponent’s scoring line spending their time on ice not inside his team’s zone…

  144. hunter1909 says:

    Marincin and Petry are possibly the best defencemen on the frigging team. So what gives in demonizing them? If MacT was Sam Pollock, does this mean Serge Savard automatically gets run out of town on a rail to make way for Larry Robinson?

  145. justDOit says:

    Lowetide:
    A reminder that long posts with lots of links get caught in the moderator thingy. A perfectly wonderful post is at 12:10pm, hope you read it.

    And here I thought I was being smrt and quoting it for everyone to read down here, but apparently quoted posts hit the moderation thingy too.

  146. Marc says:

    hunter1909,

    Put me down for 94 points.

    Here’s a fun fact. Over the last 8 seasons, 12 teams that finished in the bottom 5 one year ended up making the playoffs the following year. The average year on year improvement in points total for those 12 teams was 27 points (I had to do a bit of pro-rating around the lockout shortened season).

    67+27 = 94

  147. "Frank The Dog" says:

    justDOit: Until we get RFID chips in all the sticks, and a transponder inside the puck.

    and a grid in the ice to pick it all up, and some nice big arrays to store all of the data, and the software to capture and store for people like Tyler to analyse. I would be surprised if they were not planning to do this in the new stadium ice. It’s not as if the technology or hardware doesn’t exist.

  148. Bar_Qu says:

    Lowetide:
    A reminder that long posts with lots of links get caught in the moderator thingy. A perfectly wonderful post is at 12:10pm, hope you read it.

    Is that DMW’s new handle or does he have competition for the surrealist posts?

    Wow, very interesting

  149. delooper says:

    Adam Wu: This is true, but then Corsi doesn’t really differentiate between a shot off Gretzky’s stick and a shot of Laraque’s stick either, right?

    That really boils down to the issue of shot quality, and iirc that’s never been really successfully quantified and correlated, has it?

    I also recall that there was some substantial benefit to Laraque holding the puck in the offensive zone as well, inasmuch as it meant the puck was not in his own team’s zone, and instead trapped dead in the other corner, and if Laraque was on against the opponent’s scoring lines, it often meant the end of the shift for them by the time the puck was dug out or frozen for a whistle, and it meant the opponent’s scoring line spending their time on ice not inside his team’s zone…

    Certainly Laraque was a good player for the Oilers. And he did have a decent shooting percentage most seasons. Just not a lot of shots, since he was along the boards most of the time. Gretzky was always where the other team didn’t want him, getting plenty of good shots and prime passes off.

  150. justDOit says:

    Marc: 94

    Smyth just shed a tear.

  151. wheatnoil says:

    Marc:
    hunter1909,

    Put me down for 94 points.

    Here’s a fun fact. Over the last 8 seasons, 12 teams that finished in the bottom 5 one year ended up making the playoffs the following year.The average year on year improvement in points total for those 12 teams was 27 points (I had to do a bit of pro-rating around the lockout shortened season).

    67+27 = 94

    The Ghost of Ryan Smyth lives on! He and Tom Joad are having a beer somewhere.

  152. Zeabs93 says:

    hunter1909,

    I’ll take 86 points Hunter, has that been taken yet?

  153. Hammers says:

    Marc: hunter1909, Put me down for 94 points.Here’s a fun fact. Over the last 8 seasons, 12 teams that finished in the bottom 5 one year ended up making the playoffs the following year. The average year on year improvement in points total for those 12 teams was 27 points (I had to do a bit of pro-rating around the lockout shortened season).67+27 = 94

    Hunter i said 84 then changed to 83 yesterday when I saw 84 was gone .

  154. Hammers says:

    LT I’m another that looses your morning show . What gets me is its normally when the Oilers are being discussed . Bad luck I guess .

  155. nycoil says:

    We talk about the Detroit model a lot around these parts. I found this very interesting, thought I’d pass it along.
    http://blogs.windsorstar.com/sports/wings-babcock-upset-by-ouellet-demotion

  156. "Frank The Dog" says:

    hunter1909,

    Any chance of you listing all of the numbers you have so far, and who has them? I forgot that only 1 person can have each number, and I’m not the first with my choice.

  157. Магия 10 says:

    hunter1909: NYCOil, Gerta Rauss predicts: 80 points

    Looks like Hunter has lots of room at that Hawaii condo share.

  158. justDOit says:

    “Frank The Dog”: I forgot that only 1 person can have each number

    Where did you read that? Have the rules been posted somewhere? I can’t catch everything on this site and get my work done.

  159. Yeti says:

    justDOit: Hunt/Jultz – yeowza!

    You know, I really felt that the best possible strategy would be to create another line that needs constant sheltering. Oilers hockey would be simply too damn easy without that.

  160. Pouzar says:

    To Jake, Denny

    Straight from the horse’s mouth:

    “Thank you for your email.

    Sportsnet will be airing over 350 national NHL games this upcoming seasons. These national games will be available coast-to-coast on Sportsnet ONE, Sportsnet 360, CBC or City.

    The Calgary Flames vs. Edmonton Oilers game is a national broadcast on Sportsnet 360 and will be available to residents of Manitoba.

    For more programming information, please refer to the full NHL on Sportsnet broadcast schedule attached.

    Please note that in addition to our national NHL package, Sportsnet also owns the regional broadcast rights to the Vancouver Canucks, Edmonton Oilers, Calgary Flames, Montreal Canadiens and some of the Toronto Maple Leafs regional games. These regional games will continue to be subject to broadcast restrictions implemented by the NHL.”

  161. Bag of Pucks says:

    Is it not possible that 1) MacT still does believe in analytics/possession numbers AND 2) Marincin is struggling with the weight gain and needs a brief stint in the A to condition and adjust his game?

    Presumably if Dellow has Eakins’ ear now, this stuff is discussed. But last year is last year. How Marincin performed last year should be largely immaterial to the decision to send him down now if they are seeing things in his game currently that gave them cause for concern. Giving players roster spots out of loyalty/entitlement as opposed to recent performance has been a hallmark of this wander through the desert. Personally, I’m ok with recent job performance taking greater priority and competition for roster spots becoming more egalitarian. Marty will be back and he’ll be hungrier when he returns. Not necessarily a bad thing for an emerging player.

    Honestly, is the endgame here to replace the humans with an algorithm that spits out the correct personnel moves and line combinations?

    I’m fine with the roster players chosen, most importantly, because it’s a highly fluid situation that will evolve rapidly. Marincin? Much ado over nothing imho.

  162. vinotintazo says:

    Pouzar: Sportsnet ONE, Sportsnet 360, CBC or City

    I dont have Sportsnet 360, will the game be on Sportsnet One?

  163. oilswell says:

    Schultz with Hunt says to me they continue to believe they need offensive Ds to play with offensive Fs. Not looking forward to that pair pulling the puck out of their nets while on pvp assignments.

    Glad to hear that Colorado doesn’t understand corsi one bit (or are just hiding it). The point isn’t to reduce your chances by taking more lower percentage shots, it tells you how well you are doing assuming you are optimizing your chances with good shot selection.

  164. Pouzar says:

    Bakersfield Condors ‏@Condors 3h3 hours ago
    FIVE assigned to #Condorstown: Twin bros. Connor & Kellen Jones, Mitch Holmberg, Graeme Craig, & Joshua Winquist.

  165. Pouzar says:

    Way to go Marincin!

    Neal ‏@tweetneal 3h3 hours ago
    Staying w/ #OKCBarons : LD – Aulie, Musil, Oesterle, Simpson, Marincin, Gernat RD – Ludwig

  166. justDOit says:

    JUSTDOIT says:
    October 5, 2014 at 10:49 am

    hunter1909:
    Don’t forget to register your number in the Hunter1909 contest.
    Numbers picked so far: 81, 83, 86, 88, 89, 94(twice), 96
    Anyone over 18 can enter. Until the puck gets dropped on opening night.
    What did you say the prize was again? A quart of Finnish champagne?

    I’ll go with 90 – as in 19fkn90!
    (Quote) (Reply)
    Click to EditDelete

    Hunter’s comment appears to give credence to numbers being picked more than once. Unless that’s changed…

  167. Woodguy says:

    LMHF#1: Which should be both easy and cheap – no?

    The RF on the equipment is easy.

    Apparently the puck has been very problematic.

    I don’t know the particulars but I think it has to do with the chip surviving the puck-making process and subsequent freezing.

  168. Woodguy says:

    Bar_Qu: Is that DMW’s new handle or does he have competition for the surrealist posts?

    Wow, very interesting

    Structure, vocabulary and general style lead me to believe it’s not DMW

  169. "Frank The Dog" says:

    justDOit: Where did you read that? Have the rules been posted somewhere? I can’t catch everything on this site and get my work done.

    I saw a comment by someone earlier about a number being taken, that’s all. I am in the same boat as you so I assumed that I had missed something. Work gets in the way a lot.

  170. "Frank The Dog" says:

    justDOit:
    JUSTDOIT says:
    October 5, 2014 at 10:49 am

    hunter1909:
    Don’t forget to register your number in the Hunter1909 contest.
    Numbers picked so far: 81, 83, 86, 88, 89, 94(twice), 96
    Anyone over 18 can enter. Until the puck gets dropped on opening night.
    What did you say the prize was again? A quart of Finnish champagne?

    I’ll go with 90 – as in 19fkn90! (Quote)(Reply)
    Click to EditDelete

    Hunter’s comment appears to give credence to numbers being picked more than once. Unless that’s changed…

    Leave it just like that. *I chose my number scientifically

  171. theres oil in virginia says:

    justDOit: A quart of Finnish champagne?

    Sorry I missed the dance contest. I’ve had approximately zero time for following along lately.

  172. Marc says:

    One further point on my previous comment.

    Based on the experience of the past 8 seasons it is highly likely that one or two of Edmonton, NYI, Florida, Calgary or Buffalo make the playoffs this season. I think there was only one season in which no bottom five team made the leap, and in four of the 8 seasons two or more bottom five teams did.

  173. "Frank The Dog" says:

    Woodguy: The RF on the equipment is easy.

    Apparently the puck has been very problematic.

    I don’t know the particulars but I think it has to do with the chip surviving the puck-making process and subsequent freezing.

    Sounds like an excuse to me. Where there’s will and money there’s a way. Or is the NHL like NASCAR, carburettors that survived until 2012, just resisting change?

  174. justDOit says:

    theres oil in virginia,

    Too bad – he’s already awarded the complete library of Modest Mussorgsky, as an early-bird prize.

  175. "Frank The Dog" says:

    On this discrediting of “analytics” in general and corsi in particular: If you were a GM and you had suddenly discovered, through the help of someone like Tyler Dellow, how you can win games through effective use of corsi and other analytics, would you publicly endorse this, or would you throw salt on it to distract your opponents rom the holy grail?
    I have given some very large corporations unrivalled insight into their own businesses through the use of some fairly complex analytics, and the people who declared on this blog that it’s as much about the extraction of information as it is getting the data are absolutely correct. Your data has to be rock solid, you have to be able to reconcile down to a granular level where necessary, and you have to be able to defend your KPI calcs against all comers, and endure defensive tactics from the ones shown up to be more BS than actual talent. But they do strip off the personal bias to a large degree, and they can give you a significant competitive edge if used correctly. So I’ll actually call Eakins and MacT dumb @$$e$ if they walk away from Tyler’s analytics, and are not just trying to put their competitors off.
    Remember, demystifying who is actually better than who else, at what role, puts a lot of MSM know-it-alls out of work.

  176. hunter1909 says:

    Everyone please feel free to select any number you like. That is, any number between 0 and 164(the minimum/maximum points Oilers can get this season); so far the numbers 78-92 are collectively the most popular.

    Pouzar’s picked before the 0-164 rule was published. Therefore, his -8,000,000 points stays on the books.

  177. TheOtherJohn says:

    NYI have added an experienced #1 goalie, a 2C, 3W and 2 top 4 D. All In one offseason. And play in the EC.

    If you made me pick a lottery team that’s my pick for the playoffs

    Mind you I have learned here that the Oilers have 2 NHL starter calibre tenders, 6 real NHL D, a Norris trophy candidate, 7 scoring forwards and 3 ROTY candidates.

    Nope, I’ll stick with NYI making playoffs

  178. hunter1909 says:

    justDOit,

    Your number is safe.

  179. hunter1909 says:

    “Frank The Dog”:
    hunter1909,

    Any chance of you listing all of the numbers you have so far, and who has them? I forgot that only 1 person can have each number, and I’m not the first with my choice.

    I’ll make a list before Thursday night(deadline is 60 minutes before opening night face off). Probably Wednesday.

  180. Woodguy says:

    Paging “Steve” “Smith” (if that’s your real name….)

    Have a twitter handle?

  181. G Money says:

    TheOtherJohn: Mind you I have learned here that the Oilers have 2 NHL starter calibre tenders, 6 real NHL D, a Norris trophy candidate, 7 scoring forwards and 3 ROTY candidates.

    This is COMPLETELY misrepresenting what you’ve learned here. COMPLETELY. In fact, what you’ve learned here is exactly the above except it should say “6 real NHL d including a Norris Trophy candidate” and “2 NOT 3 ROTY candidates”.

    I hope that you have learned your lesson. Be diligent about things like this and and maybe someday you’ll be the Original John instead of the Other One.

  182. "Steve" For Real, Let's Undulate "Smith" says:

    Woodguy,

    Technically, yes. Not sure I know the password. Why do you ask?

  183. theres oil in virginia says:

    justDOit:
    theres oil in virginia,

    Too bad – he’s already awarded the complete library of Modest Mussorgsky, as an early-bird prize.

    I’m holding out for the Suzi Quatro anthology.

  184. book¡je says:

    “Steve” For Real, Let’s Undulate “Smith”:
    Woodguy,

    Technically, yes.Not sure I know the password.Why do you ask?

    He wants to know your secret identity – that’s how he figured out mine.

  185. theres oil in virginia says:

    Woodguy:
    Paging “Steve” “Smith” (if that’s your real name….)

    Have a twitter handle?

    So that’s how twitter works! You pull the right handle and the tweets come out. But, how do you know which handle to pull? Maybe they give the handles names?

  186. Woodguy says:

    “Steve” For Real, Let’s Undulate “Smith”:
    Woodguy,

    Technically, yes.Not sure I know the password.Why do you ask?

    Lost your contact info, need it.

  187. Woodguy says:

    theres oil in virginia: So that’s how twitter works!You pull the right handle and the tweets come out.But, how do you know which handle to pull?Maybe they give the handles names?

    Not sure, but I got 3 cherries and feel pretty good about myself.

  188. "Steve" For Real, Let's Undulate "Smith" says:

    Woodguy,

    E-mailed you at your Vishthrottler e-mail address. In the meantime, don’t answer any questions or make any statements. Anything you might want to say at this point is better said in court, if at all (or, in rare occasions, disclosed to the police/Crown via counsel); the police have in likelihood already decided that you are guilty, and nothing you say is likely to change their minds. On the other hand, even apparently innocuous admissions can strengthen the strength of the case against you.

    Be aware that the police are not obligated to stop questioning you just because you have told them that you’re not going to answer any questions. They can continue their questioning for an extended period of time; for that reason, I recommend that you use a stock phrase – something like “on the advice of a lawyer, I am not answering any questions” – and repeat it in answer to every question asked. This includes apparently innocuous, ice-breaker type questions; I have a colleague who recounts a video-recorded police interrogation he once reviewed, which he described of “half an hour of refusing to talk, half an hour of ‘yeah, I really like dirt-biking’, and half an hour of tearful confessing'”. The point of this story is, of course, that police will often begin by making conversation about subjects unrelated to their investigation, to put the subject at ease.

    Finally, be aware that police can lie to you about what evidence they have. They will often exaggerate the quality of their case in an effort to induce you to talk. They may tell you that they have physical evidence (such as material suitable for DNA analysis) that ties you to the offence they’re investigating, or that they have witness statements that they do not have (including statements from accomplices). Their purpose in doing so is to make you feel like your situation is hopeless, and that you should therefore confess to get things off your chest, or in the hopes of lenient treatment (though they cannot promise you lenient treatment in exchange for talking).

    Okay, now we’re going to practice. I’ll be the police.

    What do you do for a living, Darcy?

  189. "Steve" For Real, Let's Undulate "Smith" says:

    It occurs to me, belatedly, that the reason you lost my contact information may be that you lost access to your Vishthrottler e-mail address. As such: steve..net.

  190. Woodguy says:

    “Steve” For Real, Let’s Undulate “Smith”:
    It occurs to me, belatedly, that the reason you lost my contact information may be that you lost access to your Vishthrottler e-mail address.As such: steve..net.

    Thanks.

    I never check the vish addy.

    Not connected to my phone so it languishes.

    Never use it anymore.

  191. Woodguy says:

    “Steve” For Real, Let’s Undulate “Smith”,

    What do you do for a living, Darcy?

    Travelling wood salesman, thanks for asking officer.

  192. "Steve" For Real, Let's Undulate "Smith" says:

    Woodguy,

    GOD DAMMIT!

  193. Halfwise says:

    “Steve” For Real, Let’s Undulate “Smith”:
    Woodguy,

    GOD DAMMIT!

    Were the rest of us supposed to see that? I am even more confused than usual.

  194. skidplate says:

    That was priceless.

    Thank you gentlemen. A good laugh before bed.

    Who’s on first?

  195. skidplate says:

    “Steve” For Real, Let’s Undulate “Smith”:
    Woodguy,

    E-mailed you at your Vishthrottler e-mail address.In the meantime, don’t answer any questions or make any statements.Anything you might want to say at this point is better said in court, if at all (or, in rare occasions, disclosed to the police/Crown via counsel); the police have in likelihood already decided that you are guilty, and nothing you say is likely to change their minds.On the other hand, even apparently innocuous admissions can strengthen the strength of the case against you.

    Be aware that the police are not obligated to stop questioning you just because you have told them that you’re not going to answer any questions.They can continue their questioning for an extended period of time; for that reason, I recommend that you use a stock phrase – something like “on the advice of a lawyer, I am not answering any questions” – and repeat it in answer to every question asked.This includes apparently innocuous, ice-breaker type questions; I have a colleague who recounts a video-recorded police interrogation he once reviewed, which he described of “half an hour of refusing to talk, half an hour of ‘yeah, I really like dirt-biking’, and half an hour of tearful confessing’”.The point of this story is, of course, that police will often begin by making conversation about subjects unrelated to their investigation, to put the subject at ease.

    Finally, be aware that police can lie to you about what evidence they have.They will often exaggerate the quality of their case in an effort to induce you to talk.They may tell you that they have physical evidence (such as material suitable for DNA analysis) that ties you to the offence they’re investigating, or that they have witness statements that they do not have (including statements from accomplices).Their purpose in doing so is to make you feel like your situation is hopeless, and that you should therefore confess to get things off your chest, or in the hopes of lenient treatment (though they cannot promise you lenient treatment in exchange for talking).

    Okay, now we’re going to practice.I’ll be the police.

    What do you do for a living, Darcy?

    Watching NYPD Blue (best cop show IMO). This happens about 3 times every episode. I am glad I am a law abiding citizen, because I am pretty sure I would spill like a fountain.

  196. "Steve" For Real, Let's Undulate "Smith" says:

    skidplate: Watching NYPD Blue (best cop show IMO). This happens about 3 times every episode. I am glad I am a law abiding citizen, because I am pretty sure I would spill like a fountain.

    Somewhat ironically, so would I.

  197. Lois Lowe says:

    I will also add, if a crime gang befriends you out of the blue, there’s a good chance it’s the police. Especially if they *really* want you to talk about your past crimes. It amazes me how often people fall for it.

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