LAVENDER BLUE

petry common33

The Oilers defense has come under fire this season, mostly due to TOI usage. Observers wonder about Justin Schultz’s excessive minutes and the results seen in that time on ice, especially when legit options are available in Jeff Petry and Mark Fayne.

VOLLMAN SLEDGEHAMMER

vollman d 14-15The Vollman shows (as it did with the forwards) Dallas Eakins is using his blue correctly in terms of deployment beyond ice time. This is 5×5 and CorsiOn, and we see several men in the blue at this point in the season. I think we can reasonably assume Eakins/Ramsay have figured this out, but there are areas they might want to look at in order to improve the team performance:

  • Use Mark Fayne more and Justin Schultz less
  • Try Nikitin with Petry for a few games
  • Sign Martin Marincin now
  • Try Fayne with Petry for a few games

Beyond that, I don’t think there’s much to quarrel over. I think the Oilers remain convinced that Justin Schultz is a clearly superior offensive player to Jeff Petry, but at evens I don’t think that’s obvious or even true. They’re smarter than I am, but as Dennis King says it looks like an entire year is being devoted to proving Justin Schultz can play big minutes and be successful. The entire 6 is bending over backwards (in this graph) to get clean air for 19 and the results are wildly disappointing.

I have faith in this coaching staff to figure that out, but it might take all season. The reduced TOI in recent games is slightly encouraging. A signed Petry would be music!

loktionov nicholsThe Oilers may be one of them, that would make the most sense. Even if he’s a winger at heart, Loktionov has more experience at center than the Oilers’ current wingmen and Edmonton has a major need. With Bogdan Yakimov injured in OKC (we’ll probably find out how badly he’s hurt today) the Oilers may make a move with the NHL team and then send Will Acton to the farm. Or at least that sounds reasonable in theory.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

bardot2

At 10 it’s the Lowdown on TSN 1260. Steve Lansky from Bigmouth Sports gets us started and we’ll talk World Series and NHL. At 10:25 Kent Wilson from Flames Nation pops in and talks about Calgary’s impressive season. At 11, it’s Corey Graham talking Oil Kings and their impressive start, followed by Paul Almeida and his Halloween poems. At 11:45, I’ll speak to Grant Fuhr about his new book.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.

Grant Fuhr! Seriously!

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139 Responses to "LAVENDER BLUE"

  1. russ99 says:

    The only problem with your usage suggestions is that would leave Schultz with Ference, and we all know that’s a really bad idea.

    Unless you’re cutting their icetime down to below 10 minutes even strength, which IMO would be a big hinderance to our offense. Our other defenseman don’t do what Schultz does in the offensive zone.

  2. Lowetide says:

    russ99:
    The only problem with your usage suggestions is that would leave Schultz with Ference, and we all know that’s a really bad idea.

    Unless you’re cutting their icetime down to below 10 minutes even strength, which IMO would be a big hinderance to our offense. Our other defenseman don’t do what Schultz does in the offensive zone.

    You could go

    Nikitin-Petry
    Marincin-Schultz
    Ference-Fayne

    OR

    Fayne-Petry
    Marincin-Schultz
    Ference-Nikitin

  3. Bar_Qu says:

    How about pairing Schultz with Petry – according to wha t Willis has posted he makes everyone he plays with look better than they are. 😉

    Seriously, keeping Petry with Ference is likely the best thing making Ference more effective than he is on his own, so don’t mess with that. The only other possibility is bringing up Klefbom and splitting Petry’s time with Klef and Ference. I don’t know who runs with Schultz, but frankly the Oil aren’t listening to sense anyways, so I doesn’t matter what wiser heads say.

    (edit)
    I like LT’s idea of running Schultz with Marinicin, so dropping Hunt for now and bringing up Klef to be the 7th D is actually workable.

  4. Aitch says:

    I assume you read the article on OilersNation last night where Willis looks at the ice-time deployment. I think he nails the strategy of ice-time deployment beautifully. If you’re losing you need goals, hence Schultz’s increased ice-time in games the Oilers are trailing. If you’re winning, the team wants to prevent goals, hence more of Fayne. Until the Oilers acquire or develop a true #1 d-man, this sort of usage makes a lot of sense.

  5. Lowetide says:

    Aitch:
    I assume you read the article on OilersNation last night where he looks at the ice-time deployment. I think Willis nails the strategy of ice-time deployment beautifully. If you’re losing you need goals, hence Schultz’s increased ice-time in games the Oilers are trailing. If you’re winning, the team wants to prevent goals, hence more of Fayne. Until the Oilers acquire or develop a true #1 d-man, this sort of usage makes a lot of sense.

    No, it doesn’t. Not in my opinion. If you’re increasing Schultz’s TOI and it isn’t working, then the rational option is to move on. Petry can help provide offense and is less wobbly defensively.

    Giving Justin Schultz MORE ice time is not a good idea. Less is better.

  6. BrazilianOil says:

    ” Sing Marincin now” what kind of deal you think is resonable and fair ?

  7. Chris says:

    I tend to think three million or less for as long as possible for Marincin is the way to go. I also dearly wish that we would trade Justin Shultz for magic beans. I’m pretty sure he is this team’s personal Ewing Theory. Remove him and so many problems will be solved.

  8. LMHF#1 says:

    Lowetide: No, it doesn’t. Not in my opinion. If you’re increasing Schultz’s TOI and it isn’t working, then the rational option is to move on. Petry can help provide offense and is less wobbly defensively.

    Giving Justin Schultz MORE ice time is not a good idea. Less is better.

    The guys moving the puck successfully this year are Marincin, Petry and Fayne.

    These would be the guys who need more TOI, whether the Oilers are behind or not.

  9. Clay says:

    I don’t think it can be Marincin with Schultz at evens, at least not until Marincin has 150+ games under his belt. It’s not exactly setting MM up for failure, but let’s face it, in that sort of pairing he’s going to be left holding the bag on odd-man rushes a lot, and I just don’t think it’s wise to put that kind of beating on someone so inexperienced.

    I honestly think it has to be Marincin-Petry – a good all-round pairing, with the best possible chance for Marincin to continue growing into a complete player. This should be the #1 EVTOI pairing, regardless of the score.

    Aside from that, I would really like to see some true consequences for actions for Schultz. Eakins had (or has) no problem benching certain players when they aren’t playing responsibly – why not Schultz? It’s hurting his progression as a pro. Everyone sees it (except the coach and GM, apparently). The lazy plays and lack of defensive improvement. If he isn’t shown that it’s unacceptable to make the same defensive mistakes year over year, why would he ever change?

    Eakins likes to maintain that playing time is the ultimate reward / motivator for his players. Well, enough with the double standard!

    There’s a part of me that honestly believes it comes down to the pride of the GM, as well as all the Boys on the Bus who helped recruit Schultz. One can only imagine the promises and raving that went on about the opportunities and ice-time he’d get if he signed in Edmonton. Would MacT give Eakins a mandate to play Schultz as much as possible, at the expense of winning, just to maintain his (and his friends’) reputation?

  10. Clay says:

    Lowetide: No, it doesn’t. Not in my opinion. If you’re increasing Schultz’s TOI and it isn’t working, then the rational option is to move on. Petry can help provide offense and is less wobbly defensively.

    Giving Justin Schultz MORE ice time is not a good idea. Less is better.

    This is exactly right.

    When the team is trailing, where is the logic in putting out the players most likely to allow them to give up more goals? Especially when those players have only a very slightly better chance of adding offense than the defensively responsible players?

  11. spoiler says:

    Trust Colbert to spoof the reaction to the Ottawa shootings. Just brilliant.

  12. spoiler says:

    Top two defensemen points per 60, Edmonton Oilers:

    Justin Schultz
    Nikita Nikitin

    These are the defensemen that need to be out there when you are behind in the game.

    Fortunately, that’s who Eakins deploys.

  13. leadfarmer says:

    How about
    Petry Marincin – Hey it worked last year
    Schultz Fayne – Give Schultz a steady defensive defenseman to try and make him swim
    Ferrence Nikitin – Not perfect but still better than Schultz – Ferrence.

  14. bones says:

    The composition on that bardot shot is so wrong.

  15. spoiler says:

    Jeff Petry provides less than half the offense that Schultz brings. Some of that is due to Zone Start. But we have no evidence that with improved Zone starts, say from 40% to 50%, he will be able to double his offensive output.

  16. Lowetide says:

    spoiler:
    Jeff Petry provides less than half the offense that Schultz brings.Some of that is due to Zone Start.But we have no evidence that with improved Zone starts, say from 40% to 50%, he will be able to double his offensive output.

    We have evidence that playing Justin Schultz 24 minutes a night isn’t helping. Since there are limited options available, giving four of those minutes to Petry/Fayne is the logical next step.

  17. flea says:

    Loktionov would be a nice stop gap for the Oilers – they could make him and Arcobello battle for icetime. Maybe a center that would work better with Yakupov too.

  18. Lowetide says:

    spoiler:
    Top two defensemen points per 60, Edmonton Oilers:

    Justin Schultz
    Nikita Nikitin

    These are the defensemen that need to be out there when you are behind in the game.

    Fortunately, that’s who Eakins deploys.

    This ignores the chaos that occurs when Schultz is on the ice. There’s what you get, and what you leave. Reducing Schultz’s minutes at evens is the right thing to do.

  19. su_dhillon says:

    Grant Fuhr Holy Shit!

    Maybe someone else can confirm but I remember a series of posts where Tyler discussed Petry vs Schultz and that even though Petry was playing tougher minutes they were generating more offense with him on the ice vs Jultz. Anyone else remember that?

    It’s clear the Oilers brass doesn’t believe that but at some point if Jultz isn’t head shoulders above everyone else at generating offense 5×5 while getting all the prime OZ starts and playing the most with the Nuge line that the Oilers are in trouble.

  20. delooper says:

    Lowetide: We have evidence that playing Justin Schultz 24 minutes a night isn’t helping. Since there are limited options available, giving four of those minutes to Petry/Fayne is the logical next step.

    Aha. The what-cha-gonna-do response…

  21. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: This ignores the chaos that occurs when Schultz is on the ice. There’s what you get, and what you leave. Reducing Schultz’s minutes at evens is the right thing to do.

    So you are choosing eye over math?

  22. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: We have evidence that playing Justin Schultz 24 minutes a night isn’t helping. Since there are limited options available, giving four of those minutes to Petry/Fayne is the logical next step.

    We have evidence that when Schultz is on the ice he is twice as likely to contribute a point to our offence as Petry. When you are behind on the scoreboard, Schultz is the correct option.

  23. Hammers says:

    Seems that when Marincin played for his country he got both PP time & OZ starts so why not here at least to see how he handles it . Why not try him with Schultz , hell right now he only see’s D time . He also played with Schultz under Nelson in OKL . I would like to see Petry with Klefbom and let Ference & Nikitin fight for time with Fayne . Got a feeling Nikitin will only play a half season or so anyway with injuries part of his track record . McT Hunt is not cutting it in the NHL but he could help some of the “D” on the Barons .

  24. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: This ignores the chaos that occurs when Schultz is on the ice. There’s what you get, and what you leave.

    The difference in Petry and Schultz’s Corsi On is negligible. It’s about one and a half shots per 60 minutes or less than a shot per game.

  25. icecastles says:

    spoiler: We have evidence that when Schultz is on the ice he is twice as likely to contribute a point to our offence as Petry. When you are behind on the scoreboard, Schultz is the correct option.

    If Schultz gets you a point and gets the other guys 2, you’re not really pulling ahead. A defenseman still needs to be able to defend and for all the offense that Schultz generates, he also creates significant risk of winding up behind by two rather than just one.

  26. Clay says:

    spoiler: So you are choosing eye over math?

    Woodguy just did a very long and well researched article on the numbers of Petry vs Schultz 5v5.

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/

    In short, if you don’t want to click through,

    “The Oilers do not create more offense when Justin Schultz is on the ice 5v5 and they give up more offense when he is.

    We cannot blame his partners for his efforts as they are the same or better without him.

    Schultz is particularly bad away from Hall, while Petry’s numbers are about the same with and without Hall showing that he isn’t reliant on one set of forwards to produce his offensive numbers.

    Schultz produces more points for himself 5v5, but its not enough to make up for what he gives up.

    Schultz does not have particularly good PP numbers to help his case.

    It seems that the Oilers have a decision to make on whether to keep Petry or J.Schultz.

    Its pretty clear that they should keep Petry.

    Its not close.”

  27. jfry says:

    spoiler: The difference in Petry and Schultz’s Corsi On is negligible.It’s about one and a half shots per 60 minutes or less than a shot per game.

    he’s doing the opposite of ignoring the math…check out woodguy’s recent post. The math suggests jultz leaks chances against, most 5-star (by eye). petry locks down the d zone and gets the pucks to the forwards who are supposed to score. being down and putting on your most porous dman is how teams go from losing 2-0 to 5-1. Hunt doesn’t help that.

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2014/10/what-you-create-minus-what-you-give-up.html

  28. spoiler says:

    icecastles: If Schultz gets you a point and gets the other guys 2, you’re not really pulling ahead. A defenseman still needs to be able to defend and for all the offense that Schultz generates, he also creates significant risk of winding up behind by two rather than just one.

    spoiler: The difference in Petry and Schultz’s Corsi On is negligible.It’s about one and a half shots per 60 minutes or less than a shot per game.

  29. RMGS says:

    spoiler: The difference in Petry and Schultz’s Corsi On is negligible. It’s about one and a half shots per 60 minutes or less than a shot per game.

    Are you adjusting for ZS%? If you did, you’d see that with Jultz’s 2/3 OZS ratio he should be killing it in shot differential to warrant his TOI.

  30. linkfromhyrule says:

    spoiler: So you are choosing eye over math?

    It sounds more to me like you are cherry picking stats to for some reason be the dissenter. P/60 this early in the season fluctuates A LOT with even a single point. Small Sample size….

    It’s not like it’s a secret that Schultz is a high event player, at both ends of the ice. He’s looked better this year, but he does not have the zone clearing ability that petry does.

  31. spoiler says:

    Clay: Woodguy just did a very long and well researched article on the numbers of Petry vs Schultz 5v5.

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/

    In short, if you don’t want to click through,

    “The Oilers do not create more offense when Justin Schultz is on the ice 5v5 and they give up more offense when he is.


    We cannot blame his partners for his efforts as they are the same or better without him.

    Schultz is particularly bad away from Hall, while Petry’s numbers are about the same with and without Hall showing that he isn’t reliant on one set of forwards to produce his offensive numbers.

    Schultz produces more points for himself 5v5, but its not enough to make up for what he gives up.

    Schultz does not have particularly good PP numbers to help his case.

    It seems that the Oilers have a decision to make on whether to keep Petry or J.Schultz.

    Its pretty clear that they should keep Petry.

    Its not close.”

    You might recall that WG was comparing Schultz’s rookie season and groin-injured season. We are talking about this season.

  32. spoiler says:

    linkfromhyrule: It sounds more to me like you are cherry picking stats to for some reason be the dissenter. P/60 this early in the season fluctuates A LOT with even a single point. Small Sample size….

    It’s not like it’s a secret that Schultz is a high event player, at both ends of the ice. He’s looked better this year, but he does not have the zone clearing ability that petry does.

    He was close to double last year too while playing through a groin injury.

  33. OilClog says:

    If only Schultz could miss a few games with a ailment. If that happened, things would never be the same.

  34. RexLibris says:

    “…when I am king, you’ll be my queen…”

    That sounds about right for the Oilers mgmt and Justin Schultz.

  35. RexLibris says:

    Burrows getting a phone hearing with NHL for his head-hit on Emelin.

    We may luck out and have one fewer Canucklehead to face tomorrow.

  36. RexLibris says:

    Sabres assign Reinhart to Kootenay.

  37. icecastles says:

    RexLibris: Burrows getting a phone hearing with NHL for his head-hit on Emelin.

    From the TSN article:

    Burrows has never been suspended over nine NHL seasons.

    That blows my mind. I don’t think there are many players in the league I despise to the extent that I despise Alex Burrows.

  38. delooper says:

    I don’t understand why people are bothering to make these rhetorical arguments using advanced stats. We know Schultz is being played the way he is, because the management believes he will become a certain type of player. They know he isn’t that player now. They are reserved to being a development team this year. They care less about winning, and more about becoming who they think they should be. This is very self-esteemy “I know I’m a beautiful flower!” stuff. So get with the program, folks.

  39. linkfromhyrule says:

    icecastles,

    Too bad diving isn’t a suspendable offense. Or is it?

  40. delooper says:

    linkfromhyrule:
    icecastles,
    Too bad diving isn’t a suspendable offense. Or is it?

    Fake it till you make it!

  41. RexLibris says:

    icecastles: From the TSN article:

    That blows my mind. I don’t think there are many players in the league I despise to the extent that I despise Alex Burrows.

    Because it is all about getting caught and knowing the line between acceptable and ethical.

  42. Lowetide says:

    delooper: Aha.The what-cha-gonna-do response…

    No, it’s the ‘we have Jeff Petry and Mark Fayne and THAT”S what we’re going to do” response

  43. Lowetide says:

    spoiler: So you are choosing eye over math?

    No, we’re saying that giving Petry, a more experienced player, a push is going to impact the team’s GF-GA numbers based on available evidence like Corsi and Fenwick. If you give Petry 3 minutes from Schultz’s time, JS may be more effective in his time and the difference in performance for the Oilers should be better, more controlled.

  44. clueless says:

    The common denominator between Nikitin and Hunt is the heavy shot. It would appear to me that the coaches believe that the opposition does not respect the points enough and are trying to create some room for the forwards.
    Eakins has stated a need to get more offense going

  45. steveb12344 says:

    I gotta agree with Spoiler here. I acknowledge Schultz has some defensive issues for sure, and L.T I don’t disagree that Petry should maybe get a little more ice-time love either. JS is 10gp 2g 2a 4p -2 JP is 9gp 0g 1a 1p -3. JS is clearly the better Offensive option, and it wouldn’t surprize me if Petry doesn’t score his second goal until after xmas. Zone starts, while they certainly matter, are imo wildly overrated around here. I mean all you have to do is lose the face-off and you’re on D.

    It’s just this whole “Justin Schits” meme that has taken place around here lately is really getting out of control. Seriously, did you guys expect him to be Scott Freakin Neidermeyer right out of the box? He’s a young, relatively inexperienced offensive D-man that’s still learning the defensive side of the game at the NHL level. Many teams in the NHL have these player types, and I’m certain that most of them are very happy to have them.

    I think the disconnect here is that you guys see his Corsi numbers and think he should be given the “Yandle treatment” (3rd pairing and pp) and technically you may be right in the here and now.

    The difference is that Yandle is a vet, and not likely to get any better. He is what he is.

    Schultz is much younger and still has plenty of room to improve. I really think that they still see him as their future top pairing, offensive stud, and they feel the only way to get him that experience is to throw him in there and let him swim. Growing pains be damned.

    I’m pretty much positive that if MacT were to be honest, he’d say it’s more important to him that Schultz get the required experience to end up as Neidermeyer, as opposed to Yandle. than getting a few extra wins this season. I think that is exactly why were seeing him get the min. that he is. He’s not going to learn to be a first-pairing D while sitting on the bench watching Petry do it.

    At least that’s what I believe MacEakins are thinking.

  46. icecastles says:

    linkfromhyrule: Too bad diving isn’t a suspendable offense. Or is it?

    Just searched “NHL suspendable offence” online. The first returned result? An article in the Province explaining how the NHL is biased against the Canucks and gives them far too many penalties and suspensions. And yup, they mention Zach the Hack’s “accidental” high stick on Sam Gagner. Of course in their top shelf reporting, they don’t seem to be able to tell the difference between Gagner and Gagne.

    Those folks still believe they lost the SCF to Boston because the refs were biased against them… conveniently glossing over the fact that Boston, not Vancouver was assigned more penalties in that series.

  47. Lowetide says:

    delooper:
    I don’t understand why people are bothering to make these rhetorical arguments using advanced stats.We know Schultz is being played the way he is, because the management believes he will become a certain type of player.They know he isn’t that player now. They are reserved to being a development team this year. They care less about winning, and more about becoming who they think they should be.This is very self-esteemy “I know I’m a beautiful flower!” stuff. So get with the program, folks.

    The flower isn’t growing. There’s a problem with the flower.

  48. malinpaul says:

    SIGN PETRY PLEASE

  49. D says:

    Glad to see the Oil got some major brand exposure on Colbert. You can’t pay for almost 10 seconds of the Oiler logo displayed on a show the size and demographic of the Colbert Report.

  50. McSorley33 says:

    I think we can reasonably assume Eakins/Ramsay have figured this out…
    **********************************************************************************
    No – they have not. See Justin’s ice time.

    Ference and Schultz are to have as little TOI as possible….

    By a *very* large margin- Ference and Schultz are our worst d-men.

    Allocate pairings – and ice time – accordingly.

  51. icecastles says:

    Lowetide: The flower isn’t growing. There’s a problem with the flower.

    Yeah I’ve never quite understood the love of Marc-Andre Fleury either.

  52. Aitch says:

    Clay: This is exactly right.

    When the team is trailing, where is the logic in putting out the players most likely to allow them to give up more goals?Especially when those players have only a very slightly better chance of adding offense than the defensively responsible players?

    Isn’t the whole point to win? If you’re already losing, you don’t worry about losing more. You try to find solutions to put your team in a position to win. That means you have to get more offensive. That means taking risks. Every NHL team for the last umpteen dozen years has done this. Teams activate their D when they need goals. Teams cheat for offence when they are losing. You don’t just put out your best defensive options and hope against hope that they are going to magically create enough offense to not just dig you out of the losing position you’re in, but to put you in a winning position. If you’re happy with that 2-0 deficit, then you play the guys who will ensure the puck goes in neither net.

  53. rickithebear says:

    Padding one points by failing on a dman’s primary role(defending the net) is unacceptable.
    The priority of any player on a team is + Goal differential.

    Start there.

    I will take a +ve GD from Dmen with low EVP/60 facing the other teams best with a strong DZ start forward group. Over the offensive Dman who eats up Cap dollars with 0 Goal differential Benefit
    .
    P.K. Subban 9M of WTF!

    J. schultz nedds 6M+ x 3 of forwards to break even wih his wandering.
    3.34+ evga/60 last 2 years

    2.76 EVGA/60 this year.
    2.26 EVGA w/ nikitin
    3.18 EVGA/60 without Nikitin
    Nikitin is a box protection God

    Nikitin-Petry
    Marincin-Fayne
    Klefbom-XXX

    Sigh!

  54. icecastles says:

    McSorley33: I think we can reasonably assume Eakins/Ramsay have figured this out…

    You’re putting together different parts of LT’s post to make it look like he said something he didn’t. Read that whole paragraph (and the one that follows where he specifically states that he hopes the coaches WILL figure out the TOI allocations) again.

    McSorley33: By a *very* large margin- Ference and Schultz are our worst d-men.

    You haven’t seen Brad Hunt play, I’m guessing.

  55. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: No, we’re saying that giving Petry, a more experienced player, a push is going to impact the team’s GF-GA numbers based on available evidence like Corsi and Fenwick. If you give Petry 3 minutes from Schultz’s time, JS may be more effective in his time and the difference in performance for the Oilers should be better, more controlled.

    That’s not what Corsi is telling us here. Thus far Corsi is telling us that on a possession basis there is little to pick between Petry and Schultz.

    GF/60 – GA/60 = what you create – what you leave

    Schultz: 2.07 – 2.76 = -0.99
    Petry 1.60 – 3.19 = -1.59

    Petry scores less and allows more goals per 60 than Schultz thus far this year.

  56. spoiler says:

    steveb12344: Zone starts, while they certainly matter, are imo wildly overrated around here. I mean all you have to do is lose the face-off and you’re on D.

    Exactly. And it is no coincidence that Petry gets one of the best face off men in the league when starting in the Dzone. I’m guessing Schultz gets Nuge a fair amount.

  57. icecastles says:

    Aitch: Isn’t the whole point to win? If you’re already losing, you don’t worry about losing more. You try to find solutions to put your team in a position to win. That means you have to get more offensive. That means taking risks. Every NHL team for the last umpteen dozen years has done this. Teams activate their D when they need goals. Teams cheat for offence when they are losing. You don’t just put out your best defensive options and hope against hope that they are going to magically create enough offense to not just dig you out of the losing position you’re in, but to put you in a winning position. If you’re happy with that 2-0 deficit, then you play the guys who will ensure the puck goes in neither net.

    You tend to lose a lot of money when you gamble, don’t you?

  58. Lowetide says:

    spoiler: That’s not what Corsi is telling us here. Thus far Corsi is telling us that on a possession basis there is little to pick between Petry and Schultz.

    GF/60 – GA/60 = what you create – what you leave

    Schultz:2.07 – 2.76 = -0.99
    Petry1.60 – 3.19 = -1.59

    Petry scores less and allows more goals per 60 than Schultz thus far this year.

    Because they’re playing different roles. I’m on the air and can’t devote any more time to this, but I think we’re probably not going to agree. I would take three minutes from Schultz and give it to Petry/Fayne for the rest of the season.

  59. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: Because they’re playing different roles. I’m on the air and can’t devote any more time to this, but I think we’re probably not going to agree. I would take three minutes from Schultz and give it to Petry/Fayne for the rest of the season.

    The difference in QualComp for the two Dmen, according to Behind the Net, is again mostly negligible:

    Schultz .025
    Petry .066

  60. G Money says:

    Willis makes a real nice argument that the fuss and bother over Schultz’s ice time is not necessarily warranted (he gets choice OZ time, is against mostly softer opposition, and plays more when the team is behind and needs to score goals), and that the overall deployment of the D to date has actually been pretty reasonable.

    Agree or disagree, worth a read.

    The biggest issue with this defense is that we only have 6 NHL defensemen, none of the 1D variety, mediocre at best overall, and so losing any one of those guys hurts big time, because the replacement is going to be an AHL player.

    Try as you might, you cannot fully shelter any player on D, and so you are going to have an AHL guy out against NHL opposition, and rarely do good things occur as a result.

    Lost in the angst of not signing a proper 2C is that we could still have used one more ‘prospect blocker’ D for the inevitable injuries. All the more aggravating that it was the Flames who got Raphael Diaz, a perfect buy low 7D guy IMO.

  61. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: Because they’re playing different roles. I’m on the air and can’t devote any more time to this, but I think we’re probably not going to agree. I would take three minutes from Schultz and give it to Petry/Fayne for the rest of the season.

    Does your boss know how much time you spend on Oilers’ blogs at work?

    Do you know how much time we spend on your Oilers’ blogs at work?

    You’re undermining the GDP and productivity of this great nation, LT.

    😉

  62. RexLibris says:

    G Money,

    Diaz hasn’t been all that great really. He’s looked good because he is in direct comparison to Engelland and Smid.

    I think he’s a better defenseman than Aulie, certainly, and would rather have him play than Hunt. However, Kris Russell was overall a better acquisition last year than Diaz has been this season.

  63. spoiler says:

    G Money: Willis makes a real nice argument that the fuss and bother over Schultz’s ice time is not necessarily warranted (he gets choice OZ time, is against mostly softer opposition, and plays more when the team is behind and needs to score goals), and that the overall deployment of the D to date has actually been pretty reasonable

    Agreed. I don’t know why, but LT seems to be taking one game and applying it to the whole season, when that game hasn’t been reflective of deployment for the whole season. And it is a game in which Schultz had to play with Hunt. And the overall math isn’t backing LT up.

    I totally expect Petry to have more minutes when the Oil are tied or leading, and that is the way it should be and has been for the past couple of weeks.

  64. book¡je says:

    Lowetide: Because they’re playing different roles. I’m on the air and can’t devote any more time to this, but I think we’re probably not going to agree. I would take three minutes from Schultz and give it to Petry/Fayne for the rest of the season.

    That would be like 2.5 seconds a game. I am not sure that makes any significant difference.

  65. book¡je says:

    Lowetide: The flower isn’t growing. There’s a problem with the flower.

    Try pulling on it so it grows faster.

  66. rickithebear says:

    icecastles: Those folks still believe they lost the SCF to Boston because the refs were biased against them… conveniently glossing over the fact that Boston, not Vancouver was assigned more penalties in that series.

    I used to work out at California Fitness in P.A.

    Mass development was done with Duane Fuss.

    http://www.powerlifting.ca/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=4303

    Concentrated core work was done with local friends and the odd athlete who came to the Gym.

    2 of the athletes i Enjoyed workouts with were Richie Hall; Kelly Sutherland.

    Sutherland use to tour the under circuits (sjhl) to get more time in beyond (WHL) .usually with Vince pilon.
    Richard Pilon’s (NYI) brother.
    Kelly and Vince were in a car accident (hit a deer) vince was kiled.

    i hardly ever talked Sports when working out. You ask about them or family.
    After the accident, Kelly and I briefly talked the accident and Reffing.

    He stated, ” He would do anything to get into the NHL.”

  67. rickithebear says:

    spoiler: The difference in QualComp for the two Dmen, according to Behind the Net, is again mostly negligible:

    Schultz .025
    Petry .066

    Mid 1st comp Petry
    Mid 2nd comp Schultz.

    Seriously!

  68. Lowetide says:

    book¡je: That would be like 2.5 seconds a game.I am not sure that makes any significant difference.

    HATING EVERYONE!!!! 🙂

  69. Pouzar says:

    Lowetide: HATING EVERYONE!!!!

    Just start yer own blog.

  70. icecastles says:

    book¡je: Try pulling on it so it grows faster.

    That’s what she said.

  71. VanOil says:

    The finding out what Schultz is season! Yeah, that is scarier than Halloween.

    If I were the Oilers and wanting to bet on a 24 year old NHL Right handed Defenseman to become a legitimate all situations #1D I would be betting on Tyler Myers not Schultz. Schultz’s top end seems to be a role player that can take a regular shift, rather than the role player that struggles otherwise we see right now.

    Schultz + Prospect (Gernat) + 2016 1st is a better offer than any of the other offers/demands Buffalo has been rumored to be receiving for Myers.

    With Myers in the line up and signing one of (preferably both) Marincin and Petry the Oilers would have a good defense now and the ability to have a good defense in the future as LHD prospects chase out the old guard over the next few years.

    That and some Center depth and the Oilers might make the playoffs before breaking Florida’s all time futility record.

  72. Henry says:

    LT, it hurts when I pee! What should I do?

  73. spoiler says:

    rickithebear: Mid 1st comp Petry
    Mid 2nd comp Schultz.

    Seriously!

    There are 3 Dmen with higher Qualcomp ratings than Petry, including Schultz’s usual partner. The difference between Petry and Schultz’s number is far less than the difference between Petry and the Dman above him (Nikitin).

  74. delooper says:

    Henry:
    LT, it hurts when I pee!What should I do?

    Drink more water.

  75. G Money says:

    RexLibris,

    As 7D, he just needs to be better than Aulie and Hunt … being better than Engelland and Smid is a bonus.

    Agreed that Russell might have been better, but the point is that Diaz was available (for cheap), and when the Oilers were looking.

    Also a general note on QualComp – be careful with using these numbers, the spread from top to bottom of typical QualComp numbers is actually not a huge number. Shifts are so dynamic, it’s tough to fully shelter anyone in the NHL, especially on the road.

  76. Yeti says:

    spoiler: Agreed. I don’t know why, but LT seems to be taking one game and applying it to the whole season, when that game hasn’t been reflective of deployment for the whole season. And it is a game in which Schultz had to play with Hunt. And the overall math isn’t backing LT up.

    But you’re doing it on, what, 11 games? And you write off the entire previous season on the basis of a presumed injury impacting results. Hmm.

  77. Woodguy says:

    Couple updates from Bob:

    Bob Stauffer @Bob_Stauffer ·
    Draisaitl with Pouliot and Yakupov today.

    Bob Stauffer @Bob_Stauffer · 3m 3 minutes ago
    Nikita Nikitin on the ice for practice today

    Nice to see the Dry-Yak-Pou line back together.

    Given that Nikitin leads the Oilers’ D in GFON/60 and is 2nd in RelCor I hope he’s healthy enough to play again.

  78. spoiler says:

    Yeti: But you’re doing it on, what, 11 games? And you write off the entire previous season on the basis of a presumed injury impacting results. Hmm.

    I haven’t written off the entire previous season, nor was the injury presumed. 10 games is also the sample size of the Vollman chart LT presented, not to mention many other stats. I am only following suit.

  79. Melman says:

    steveb12344,

    Well said sir.

  80. commonfan14 says:

    The 4-0 starting Islanders are now 6-4 and are still the Islanders.

    It’s not too late for a smart GM to start calling Buffalo about that pick.

  81. RexLibris says:

    G Money:
    RexLibris,

    As 7D, he just needs to be better than Aulie and Hunt … being better than Engelland and Smid is a bonus.

    Agreed that Russell might have been better, but the point is that Diaz was available (for cheap), and when the Oilers were looking.

    Also a general note on QualComp – be careful with using these numbers, the spread from top to bottom of typical QualComp numbers is actually not a huge number.Shifts are so dynamic, it’s tough to fully shelter anyone in the NHL, especially on the road.

    I’d say that being better than Engelland should be expected, and outpacing Smid a bonus, but that is just nitpicking on my part.

    Re: QualComp – I generally look at the spread. The Vollman charts are interesting, but they work best when done in cross-team comparisons so that you can get an idea of the rest of the NHL landscape. Perspective is everything.

    Also, the Qualcomp has to be taken in a large enough sample size to take those individual moments that make up defensive matchups and turn them into a larger context.

  82. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy:
    Couple updates from Bob:

    Bob Stauffer @Bob_Stauffer·
    Draisaitl with Pouliot and Yakupov today.


    Bob Stauffer @Bob_Stauffer·3m 3 minutes ago
    Nikita Nikitin on the ice for practice today

    Nice to see the Dry-Yak-Pou line back together.

    Given that Nikitin leads the Oilers’ D in GFON/60 and is 2nd in RelCor I hope he’s healthy enough to play again.

    Are we at the “Oilers need Draisaitl to get Yakupov and Pouliot going” point yet or is that next week?

    Nice to hear about Nikitin. We saw last year with Joensuu how a back injury can scuttle a player’s season, and by extension a part of the team’s roster design.

  83. spoiler says:

    Woodguy: Given that Nikitin leads the Oilers’ D in GFON/60 and is 2nd in RelCor I hope he’s healthy enough to play again.

    That is great news. I don’t think I can watch another game with Hunt back there.

  84. McSorley33 says:

    icecastles,

    You haven’t seen Brad Hunt play, I’m guessing.
    *******************************************************
    Brad Hunt is our 7th d-man and is just fill in….

  85. RexLibris says:

    Flames recalled Michael Ferland from the AHL and are starting him at home on the 1st line along with another recent call up Markus Granlund as their 1st line center.

    The middle of the ice is going to be Granlund (7 NHL gp), Monahan (86 gp), Byron (92 gp) and Bouma (131 gp).

    Meanwhile fan favourite and reputed offensive dynamo is scheduled to play on the 3rd line with Byron and David “Stone Cold” Setoguchi.

    This all seems eerily familiar.

  86. RexLibris says:

    McSorley33:
    icecastles,

    You haven’t seen Brad Hunt play, I’m guessing.
    *******************************************************

    …because I close my eyes until it is over.

  87. G Money says:

    I have to record a webcast in 10 minutes that will be broadcast in November. I have spent the morning alternating between practicing my spiel and Lowetide!

  88. icecastles says:

    McSorley33: Brad Hunt is our 7th d-man and is just fill in….

    Yup, and I see your point, but you’re moving the goal posts. You said:

    Ference and Schultz are to have as little TOI as possible…. By a *very* large margin- Ference and Schultz are our worst d-men.

    Of the men who have played D for the Oilers this season, it’s simply not the case that they are the worst.

    Hunt has played in 5 games and played between 18:26 and 22:03 per game. 7th Dman though he is, is on the active roster, he’s been in many of the games and been used in a meaningful way.

    Additionally, I think it’s somewhat hyperbolic to say they are the worst on the team “by a *very* large margin“. Worst on the team? Perhaps. But I wonder what metric you are using to determine the gap is so enormous?

  89. Kmart99 says:

    Question:

    When there is a change on the fly(of which there are many each game), how does puck location affect a player’s zone starts number?

    example: Hendricks dumps and changes and then Purcell hops on. The puck is in the OZ, but clearly he’s about to defend a zone entry since the opposition has the puck and are breaking out of their zone most likely with little opposition. It’s a horribly unfavorable position for Purcell, but what will happen to his Vollman Sledgehammer?

    How many changes are made on the fly when compared to between faceoffs?

  90. 9,998,383,750,001 says:

    he also creates significant risk of winding up behind by two rather than just one

    Which looks exactly the same in the W/L column as losing by one goal.

    Late in a game with one team leading, the game theory changes from optimizing net productivity (GF-GA/60) to a tug of war over the master chaos lever. The leading team wants to clamp down the chaos to zero, and end the game on the present score. The trailing team is willing to ramp the chaos up to infinity—even pulling their goalie—in exchange for the game ending on any score but the present score, so long as some share of the split—though almost never the larger share—falls into their basket. The desperation function is hyperbolic. Being down by a goal starts to become acute midway through the third period—a bit later if you’re generating copious five bell changes, a bit sooner if you haven’t managed to successfully carry the puck through the neutral zone since the first period.

    If you’ve got a strategy which increases chaos in the attacking zone, while leaving your own zone as calm as Vincent hunched over Modesty Blaise then you should have deployed it when the puck dropped on the opening frame.

    As Bruce pointed out in his recent screed echo, the game tying goal is worth three times as much to the team scoring it as it costs the team giving it up (prospectively, 0 to 1.5 pts on the scoring side; 2 pts to 1.5 pts on the violated side). For the leading team with a single goal margin, potting an insurance goal late in the game reduces the risk of a sliver of a half point slipping away to a near zero chance of that half point slipping away. The winning strategy is to take what you’re handed on a platter, but otherwise to keep puck management dialed up to 100% while the game clock does your dirty work. You also want to conserve energy and live to fight another day.

    The trailing team wants to jam hard, force the play, and take measured risks—recall that desperation ramps up hyperbolically—at every possible juncture. The Canucks used to double shift Jovocop when down by a goal late in the game. He had a tendency to make things happen at both ends of the ice. This is a useful weapon in your game theoretic war chest. You need a guy who can play regular minutes in a regular game—so that he’s mentally dialed up on the tendencies of everyone on the ice—but still has enough jump to take extra shifts at maximum thrust with the tying goal stubbornly eluding your outstretched fingers.

    You’ll never groom such a player (from the back end) on a routine diet of 15 m a night. Athletic performance peaks when the clutch is the same old, same old. One performs best in the same conditions where one trains.

    We’ll see whether Jultz someday matures into this role. It’s not a bet on how well he plays now, but how much more he can progress in the rarefied heights of decision making under desperation and fatigue. With the string-bean sherpa child tagged for the highest summit, you bet less on stout, steady legs than supreme lungs—that his brain is still actively problem solving at 25,000 feet—that last, elite zone where the steady Eddie sasquatch sherpa can still count his own fingers, but doesn’t want to.

    ———

    The other half of the puzzle is that they want to create a team culture where the transition game runs on repetition and instinct. Carrying the rush, there’s enough time to assess whether to press possession against a weak seam, or to sift the puck in deep.

    On the transition, there’s even less time to read and react—on both sides of the outlet pass. The forwards don’t have time to worry about whether the defenseman who has momentarily gained the puck can make the good play. Smid had the lowest ceiling on this skill, and he’s long gone already. Every defenseman needs to be able to make the good play reliably enough that the forwards aren’t gripped with fear and indecision every time they turn up ice at the first favourable bounce that breaks the cycle.

    Batters don’t hit the baseball by reasoning out the pitch. You don’t have time to think your way through it with the ball in flight. Mastery derives from intuition keying into ingrained reflex. The transition in hockey seems to live in this zone, only the players have to perform this skill collectively, and in different assortments from shift to shift and game to game.

    As soon as you have a few players who simply can’t be trusted to make the right play routinely (as opposed to the safe play) it all starts to break down. Everyone has now got an extra mental burden: which of my teammates are out on the ice, and what they can’t they do that I normally assume the other 90% of the time?

    Schultz might fail to properly break up a two on one, but while he’s screwing the pooch in the most visible possible way, he’s not compromising the automatic reflex arcs of his teammates. Smid forsaking the crisp outlet pass to press the attack with possession—instead banging the puck up the wall—is causing all kinds of problems for any forward whose intuition invoked an ingrained behaviour: now he’s out of position to defend the wall. Nuge has the cognitive margin to monitor his instincts in real time and flip a precision edge into emergency override at the first whiff of suboptimal, but even some of the other good players on the team probably can’t do this without giving up something else in their game. Every shift with Smid conditions the forwards to hug the wall. Somewhere a Corgi dies.

    Here’s what Eakins slaves over when he reviews the game tape: does the defenseman reward the forwards every time for having the right, unthinking break-out instinct?

    It’s a double feedback loop. As the forwards gain trust in their fast break instinct, it’s helps lift up the talented but inexperienced defensemen who haven’t yet attained gold glove consistency in turning a bouncing puck up ice in prime possession. This is why they partially ignore Jultz’s glaring individual deficiencies on the isolation camera. His blunders are not of the contagious kind. Smid’s limitations were contagious. Play after play he was encouraging his forwards to hug the wall. Crisis averted, while the Corgis go feral.

    ———

    Long ago when MacT was still coaching, after one game he told a long, humorous anecdote about a player who had a problem about stressing out in key moments and not being able to think. It was a long story about everyone helping out with mental relaxation techniques, etc. Then this guy gets a penalty shot or something, and he muffs it at the end, and he goes back to the bench and everyone is asking “did you use the technique, did it help, is it working?” and the guy says “everything went black the moment I touched the puck at center ice, I don’t remember a single thing.” I’ve told it badly, but in the original telling, MacT clearly thought this story was killer funny.

    When Schultz comes back to the bench after muffing some knife-edge decision to jump into the play and the coach says “what were you thinking out there?” I’m betting Jultz gives the coach a ten-point summary of events that transpired during the pass on which Jultz first received the puck. “The D-man on that side had his outside skate on the dot; I didn’t think he could recover laterally so quickly, but then he switched up before I even showed my move; by then I was already committed, so then (A), so then (B), so then (C), so then (D), so then (E).” Elapsed time on ice: 1.5 seconds. And then Jultz adds “exactly the same thing happened in a game two weeks ago, only it went ADCBE instead, we should look at that play, too.” And then they go back and look at the game tape after the game, and sure enough, Yak picked that precise moment to fly a sortie out of formation, and the D-man wasn’t coming back to defend Jultz, but because Yak’s creative jag alleviated the threat to the outside. And then Eakins says to Jultz, “continue as you were, let me take care of this one on the blackboard, your job is to make exactly the same read in that situation, exactly as you did.”

    ———

    I have to believe that what lit the Norris lamp for MacT and Eakins was that Jultz is the complete opposite of Mr Black. Not only does he recall the critical incidents, but with freeze-frame completeness. And not just right after it happens, but for all time. Some of the greatest poker and Bridge players can precisely recall thousands of hands played from years and years ago, down to the last pip. Jultz must be the kind of guy that no matter what happens out there on the ice, he gives a superlative post-game presser in the debriefing chamber.

    Nothing quite hits MacT and Eakins in the soft and squishy place like a superlative post-game presser come hell or high water. Those guys are two peas in a pod in the dance of the Ginsu knives after Kabuki Cops out there on the ice.

    That’s my take on Joker Jultzter.

    It’s an algebraic construction, extending two lines we can partially see deep into the mists of what we can’t see, to where those lines potentially intersect, and then making some creative inferences about what kind of creature would have to live there for any this to make sense.

  91. spoiler says:

    Kmart99:
    Question:

    When there is a change on the fly(of which there are many each game), how does puck location affect a player’s zone starts number?

    example:Hendricks dumps and changes and then Purcell hops on.The puck is in the OZ, but clearly he’s about to defend a zone entry since the opposition has the puck and are breaking out of their zone most likely with little opposition. It’s a horribly unfavorable position for Purcell, but what will happen to his Vollman Sledgehammer?

    How many changes are made on the fly when compared to between faceoffs?

    This is a very good question.

    Behind the Net doesn’t tell us how it calculates Zone Starts. I usually defer to Hockeyanalysis who only looks at faceoffs and breaks them down by Zone, because then at least I know what is being calculated. Keep in mind though that Faceoffs aren’t possession and your face off man is affecting possession.

    For the fellows in question today, here is the breakdown, on a percentage basis:

    Schultz

    OZ – NZ – DZ

    31.1 – 49.2 – 19.8

    Petry

    OZ – NZ – DZ

    27.3 – 32.0 – 40.6

    As you can see, this is considerably different than what Vollman reports (and Behind the Net). Don’t know if they are going based on center line (ie no NZ), or with puck possession or what. But it is very difficult for a Dman to start a shift on the fly with the puck already in their own zone, unless it is being held behind the net and the other team is changing too.

  92. icecastles says:

    9,998,383,750,001: Which looks exactly the same in the W/L column as losing by one goal.

    Not exactly my point, and I think you know that.

  93. Lowetide says:

    RexLibris:
    G Money,

    Diaz hasn’t been all that great really. He’s looked good because he is in direct comparison to Engelland and Smid.

    I think he’s a better defenseman than Aulie, certainly, and would rather have him play than Hunt. However, Kris Russell was overall a better acquisition last year than Diaz has been this season.

    Diaz was a guy who got a lot of mention, but by eye and (last I looked) by number not so much. He’s certainly moved around a lot in a short time, and that’s always a bad sign.

  94. McSorley33 says:

    icecastles,

    Hunt has played in 5 games and played between 18:26 and 22:03 per game. 7th Dman though he is, is on the active roster, he’s been in many of the games and been used in a meaningful way.
    ********************************************************************************************
    Agreed – Hunt is the 7th defenceman on the team.

    Worst on the team? Perhaps.
    ****************************************************************************
    Interesting take on Andrew Ference and Justin Schultz.

    Tough to tell, but I think you don’t agree they are the worst on the team.

  95. book¡je says:

    I think to understand oilers management, you need to understand the ‘If’ factor. If Hunt can turn into a really useful offensive defenseman, and if Schultz can improve his defensive and transition games, and if Drysaddle can become an elite Second line center this season, everything would work out well and be awesome.

    There are no “ifs” with Petry or a player like Brodziak so there is no real reason to have someone like that on your team.

  96. VanOil says:

    9,998,383,750,001: That’s my take on Joker Jultzter

    So moseying is a good thing. As long as he can recite the day dream he was having afterword.

  97. book¡je says:

    By the way the ‘if’ factor could be measured by how often MacTavish says that a player has “that something special” in a season.

  98. jake70 says:

    Recall there are a few tennis fans in here…..Raonic beat R. Federer for first time today….huge win for the lanky Canuck.

  99. spoiler says:

    icecastles: Not exactly my point, and I think you know that.

    Yes, but his points on game theory are correct. In fact, many in the stats community pointed out that coaches have been far too conservative chasing the lead. As a result we are seeing goalies being pulled earlier this year. Playing Petry more over Schultz when behind is that same conservative philosophy.

  100. icecastles says:

    McSorley33: Tough to tell, but I think you don’t agree they are the worst on the team.

    I would, for sure. I’m not sure the margin is very big but of our top 6, they really shouldn’t be seeing as many minutes as they are.

    That said, some folks are making a very compelling argument that we may be taking a more dim view of Justin Schultz than is completed warranted. It’s acknowledged that Corsi isn’t as useful a stat for defensemen as it is for forwards, and I am starting to suspect that we are still searching for the metric that can effectively encapsulate the risk/contribution involved in evaluating defensemen.

    A few folks have talked about taking risks when you’re behind and I don’t think anyone would disagree with that. A lot of ink is being spilled to convince us of something on which we’re already likely in agreement (looking at you, 9,998,383,750,001). But much of that ink conveniently glazes over the DEGREE of risk involved.

    To illustrate my point by making an extreme example, let’s say Petry will make a goal-causing error once every 200 minutes of play, and directly contribute to a goal for with the same frequency. Let’s say Jultz will make a goal causing error once every 5 minutes of play, and directly contribute to a goal for once every sixty minutes of play.

    You’d be stupid to put Petry out if you need a goal (two actually) to win the game).
    Jultz is much more likely to help you score the needed goal, but in playing the odds, he’s also more likely to put you further behind. So you’d also be stupid to put Jultz out.
    The key here is that people seem to be basing their assumptions on the notion that the only way to score a tying goal is to have your defenseman involved in scoring it.
    Let’s further assume (again, deliberately oversimplifying) that Taylor Hall (or oyur forwards in general) has a high probability of scoring one more goal, but a low probability of scoring two.

    So you put Petry out, there’s a good chance of scoring the needed goal.
    You put Schultz out and there’s a slightly higher chance of scoring a goal, but a massively higher chance that it will no longer be enough and you now need two goals.

    It’s the same reason you don’t pull the goalie with the entire third period left. Taking risks is smart. But losing bets are just that: losing bets. Vegas thrives on the folks who make bad gambles, then in the incredibly rare occasion that it pans out, convince themselves that the gamble was justified because they just won. They conveniently ignore that it cost them $200 to win $20.

  101. icecastles says:

    spoiler: No, but his points on game theory are correct

    Of course they are. I’m just saying that he’s debating something I don’t think anyone disagrees with in the first place.

  102. spoiler says:

    icecastles: It’s the same reason you don’t pull the goalie with the entire third period left. Taking risks is smart. But losing bets are just that: losing bets. Vegas thrives on the folks who make bad gambles, then in the incredibly rare occasion that it pans out, convince themselves that the gamble was justified because they just won. They conveniently ignore that it cost them $200 to win $20.

    In Vegas you can lose more. In the NHL a loss is a loss. You can’t lose more.

  103. spoiler says:

    icecastles: To illustrate my point by making an extreme example, let’s say Petry will make a goal-causing error once every 200 minutes of play, and directly contribute to a goal for with the same frequency. Let’s say Jultz will make a goal causing error once every 5 minutes of play, and directly contribute to a goal for once every sixty minutes of play.

    Again, their Corsi is different by about three quarters a shot per game, and Schultz’s GA/60 is better than Petry’s. Your analogy doesn’t hold to reality.

  104. maudite says:

    Last summer, you deal Shultz in package before shine wears off and you sign
    Petry to at least the contract nikitin was given if nothing else. The blunders from a cap management perspective in Shultz petry signings really outweighs most of the other things. Compound that with a 25 year old Rfa drai when he’s not murdering it after 9 games we are not likely getting much out of this season other than another left turn towards thrasherville.

    When philly was floundering early last year was the time to be bold. We had pieces and smart plus opportunity could have went a long way there.

  105. icecastles says:

    spoiler: In Vegas you can lose more. In the NHL a loss is a loss. You can’t lose more.

    So you’re saying to pull the goalie for the whole third period. Because “a loss is a loss”.

    I think you’ve gotten so focused on defending your position that you’re at the point of saying anything and ignoring 90% of my post so you can cherry pick something to disagree with.

    I’m not trying to be inflammatory here. It’s jut that you started out with an interesting but debatable position, but as people have disagreed with you, it’s become more entrenched and extreme as this thread has gone on.

    spoiler: Again, their Corsi is different by about three quarters a shot per game, and Schultz’s GA/60 is better than Petry’s. Your analogy doesn’t hold to reality.

    Which part of “extreme example” was particularly confusing for you?

  106. Adam Wu says:

    VanOil: So moseying is a good thing. As long as he can recite the day dream he was having afterword.

    IF Schultz is really doing what 9,998,383,750,001 was describing in that post, then that is not moseying nor is that daydreaming. (It’s not a daydream if the recitation is an accurate description of what happens in reality) That would be displaying a vision of the ice and the game that cannot be taught, at a level that if combined with improvement in defensive play really would be a Norris trophy potential talent.

    As the Spartans famously said that one time….

    IF.

  107. spoiler says:

    icecastles
    I think you’ve gotten so focused on defending your position that you’re at the point of saying anything and ignoring 90% of my post so you can cherry pick something to disagree with.
    I’m not trying to be inflammatory here. It’s jut that you started out with an interesting but debatable position, but as people have disagreed with you, it’s become more entrenched and extreme as this thread has gone on.

    I brought it up, because it was the second time you used that analogy and I don’t think it holds. I let it pass the first time because after all it was only an argument by analogy.

    I also fail to see where my position has changed during this debate, please point out where that has happened.

    icecastles: Which part of “extreme example” was particularly confusing for you?

    Not one bit of it. But you go from your extreme example to this conclusion, which isn’t borne out by the math:

    icecastles: So you put Petry out, there’s a good chance of scoring the needed goal.
    You put Schultz out and there’s a slightly higher chance of scoring a goal, but a massively higher chance that it will no longer be enough and you now need two goals.

    And to come full circle, and I know how much you hate it when people put words in your mouth…

    icecastles: So you’re saying to pull the goalie for the whole third period. Because “a loss is a loss”.

    Not exactly my point and I think you know that.
    😉

  108. flyfish1168 says:

    Any update on Yakimov’s injury?

  109. bsmart says:

    I would love to see Klefbom in the lineup over Ference.

  110. icecastles says:

    spoiler: Not one bit of it. But you go from your extreme example to this conclusion, which isn’t borne out by the math:

    You’ve got me on that one. I think I was very much guilty in this case of doing exactly what I accused you of, which is holding on to my argument so steadfastly, that I was starting to cherry pick my facts to support it.

    spoiler: Not exactly my point and I think you know that.

    Smartass. 😀

  111. russ99 says:

    bsmart:
    I would love to see Klefbom in the lineup over Ference.

    I think we all do, but let Klefbom get his extra half-season in the AHL while we figure things out. It will serve him well in the long run.

    IMO, what to do with Ference is going to be a large piece of the GM puzzle for the Oilers over the next year.

  112. commonfan14 says:

    russ99: IMO, what to do with Ference is going to be a large piece of the GM puzzle for the Oilers over the next year.

    No doubt – stupid Tambo!…

  113. sliderule says:

    Marincin is the only pick outside of first round playing on the oilers drafted by Stu.

    Here is record of the top five teams from last year over comparible period.

    Boston
    Griffith Rd 5
    Head scout fired last year

    Anaheim
    Anderson rd3
    Karlson rd2
    Smith pelley rd2
    Vatenen rd4
    There is also our Schultz taken in rd2 but not signed

    Colorado
    OReilly rd2
    Barrie rd3
    Head scout fired this fall.

    St. Louis
    Jeskin rd2

    San Jose
    Tierney rd2
    Nieto rd2
    Wingels rd6
    Demers Rd 7

    So we have two teams who only had one and two players from later rounds playing who deemed their head scout as culpable and fired him.
    We have St louis who only had one and like the oilers have stuck with their scout.
    Then you have the cream in Anaheim and San Jose with four players contributing and in Ducks case another on the oilers.It is little wonder that even with all the oiler first overalls and high picks that they still struggle.
    I just have the sense that if oiler bloggers spent less time on mind boggling navel gazing analytics and more on getting oiler management to improve their drafting something might be accomplished.

  114. spoiler says:

    icecastles: Smartass.
    😀

    Lol. That made me grin too.

  115. flea says:

    It’ll be nice to get Nikitin back for his shot alone (hunt doesn’t seem able to get in position to unload it often). One thing that will always plague J Shultz and prevent him from becoming elite is his absolute MUFFIN of a shot. That first PP needs a better shooting option to take the pressure off the guys down low.

  116. leadfarmer says:

    sliderule,

    Completely agree. You want to have accountability in your organization that is a good place to start. Sure in the second round and later the percentage of getting an NHL player is low, but the laws of probability make those percentages additive. If someone has time this weekend they should figure out how many NHLers Stu should have drafted with those picks and how far away he really is.

  117. Lowetide says:

    Oilers are basically on track in terms of second round selections. Marincin and one other from the 2009-13 drafts and they’ll be average. Suspect they’ll hit that, question is do three develop?

    http://lowetide.ca/2014/07/14/the-second-round-2/

  118. delooper says:

    FFS, yes. The answer is yes. Three develop. Now no more revealing the future.

  119. Lowetide says:

    Prospect update for the week. Klefbom on a very nice run, Lander too

    http://oilersnation.com/2014/10/31/weekend-update-4a0aade9-8d6d-4a5f-bc47-19ed1a771759

  120. Woodguy says:

    spoiler,

    I wouldn’t use goal stats after 10 games to determine who helps score.

    1 bounce either way moves the numbers too much.

    If I’m figuring out who is going to help me score the next goal, I’d pick the guy who is leading my team in Fenwick For/60.

    Fenwick because it eliminates blocked shots and correlates with scoring chances better.

    For because I want the next goal. If I get score against, i’m done to I want the next goal.

    Oiler FenFor/60 5v5 so far this year (zone adjusted)

    Petry – 46
    Ference – 42.8
    Nikitin – 40.6
    Shultz – 36.5
    Fayne – 35.7
    Hunt – 35.1
    Marincin – 29.98

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ratings.php?disp=1&db=201415&sit=f10&pos=defense&minutes=50&teamid=12&type=fenwick&sort=F60&sortdir=DESC

  121. Woodguy says:

    Same number as above except “close”

    Close this early in the season is pretty iffy (like goals) because the sample is pretty small, but thought I’s post it.

    Petry – 50
    Ference – 49.6
    Nikitin – 45.2
    Shultz – 35
    Fayne – 34.7
    Marincin – 30.7

    (Hunt didn’t have 50min 5v5 close so didn’t qualify)

  122. delooper says:

    I’m taking my 5 year old out trick or treating tonight. I think I’ll put on my motorcycle gear and pretend to be a stormtrooper.

  123. sliderule says:

    Lowetide:
    Oilers are basically on track in terms of second round selections. Marincin and one other from the 2009-13 drafts and they’ll be average. Suspect they’ll hit that, question is do three develop?

    http://lowetide.ca/2014/07/14/the-second-round-2/


    The oilers should have graduated 25 percent of their picks from second round.
    They have one.
    The oilers had 33 picks after first round from 2008-12.
    There are several teams with five or more picks playing in same period.
    The oilers have one.
    If there is any team that a late round pick should make its the oilers.
    The oilers have one
    It’s time that the excuses end for that

  124. Lowetide says:

    sliderule: ”

    It’s time that the excuses end for that

    No, it’s time to agree that you need five years. You have Seth Griffith as a success story. Tyler Pitlick has played more games. What gives? What’s your criteria?

  125. sliderule says:

    Lowetide: No, it’s time to agree that you need five years. You have Seth Griffith as a success story. Tyler Pitlick has played more games. What gives? What’s your criteria?

    I took the players on NHL rosters.
    Griffith a 2012 draftee has 5 pts in 7 games compared to Pitlick a non roster player who has 1 pt.
    I am not trying to convince you as you believe the oilers are doing ok.
    Belief can go a long way but I am running out of time to trust in oilers belief.

  126. Ryan says:

    Lowetide: No, it’s time to agree that you need five years. You have Seth Griffith as a success story. Tyler Pitlick has played more games. What gives? What’s your criteria?

    Looking back at the Oilers draft history, the last players that the Oilers drafted outside of the first two rounds who were remotely impact-type players were Comrie in 1999 and the dirty Russian in 1998.

    Is that a league-wide record?

  127. Lowetide says:

    Ryan: Looking back at the Oilers draft history, the last players that the Oilers drafted outside of the first two rounds who were remotely impact-type players were Comrie in 1999 and the dirty Russian in 1998.

    Is that a league-wide record?

    What’s the definition of impact type player?

  128. Ryan says:

    Lowetide: What’s the definition of impact type player?

    I don’t know how to provide a precise definition, but you know it when you see it.

    A player you wouldn’t give away for a bag of pucks…
    A player you wouldn’t let walk.
    A player you wouldn’t trade for less than at least a 2nd round pick +/- a prospect?

    Teddy Peckman: no
    Liam Reddox: no
    Colin McDonald: no
    Linus Omark: no
    Tj Brodie: yes
    Tyson Barrie: yes
    Craig Smith: yes
    Joe Pavelski: yes
    Kevin bieksa: yes
    Jamie benn: yes
    Brandon Saad: yes

  129. Lowetide says:

    Ryan: I don’t know how to provide a precise definition, but you know it when you see it.

    A player you wouldn’t give away for a bag of pucks…
    A player you wouldn’t let walk.
    A player you wouldn’t trade for less than at least a 2nd round pick +/- a prospect?

    Teddy Peckman:no
    Liam Reddox:no
    Colin McDonald: no
    Linus Omark:no
    Tj Brodie:yes
    Tyson Barrie:yes
    Craig Smith: yes
    Joe Pavelski:yes
    Kevin bieksa: yes
    Jamie benn: yes
    Brandon Saad:yes

    So,

    Jeff Petry: No?

  130. Ryan says:

    Lowetide: So,

    Jeff Petry: No?

    Sorry, I didn’t write very clearly, I said outside of the first two rounds meaning 3rd round or later, so Petry doesn’t count.

  131. spoiler says:

    Ryan: Sorry, I didn’t write very clearly,I said outside of the first two rounds meaning 3rd round or later, so Petry doesn’t count.

    Strange that you would include Brandon Saad on your list then.

    And Pavelski was passed on 204 times before being taken, That just shows the luck involved.

  132. theres oil in virginia says:

    spoiler: And Pavelski was passed on 204 times

    “Yes, but every team has one of these players,” he stated, sarcastically.

  133. gcw_rocks says:

    Lowetide:
    Oilers are basically on track in terms of second round selections. Marincin and one other from the 2009-13 drafts and they’ll be average. Suspect they’ll hit that, question is do three develop?

    http://lowetide.ca/2014/07/14/the-second-round-2/

    That would assume average is acceptable. Why is average acceptable? Why aren’t we setting top quartile as the benchmark? Businesses that excel set higher standards.

    In my job, I help businesses benchmark performance against other organizations and the target is always top quartile or better. If we find their performance is middle of the pack or worse, they see that as a call to action.

  134. Lowetide says:

    gcw_rocks: That would assume average is acceptable. Why is average acceptable?Why aren’t we setting top quartile as the benchmark? Businesses that excel set higher standards.

    In my job, I help businesses benchmark performance against other organizations and the target is always top quartile or better.If we find their performance is middle of the pack or worse, they see that as a call to action.

    I’m not saying average is acceptable, and in fact the Oilers aren’t average yet (as you have to wait for these things to play out). I said question is do three develop? and for me that’s the line in the sand.

    The other thing is that available jobs with Edmonton are reduced due to the high number of No 1-3 overall picks. Some of these men will have to emerge on other teams (if they’re going to have careers).

  135. gcw_rocks says:

    Lowetide: No, it’s time to agree that you need five years. You have Seth Griffith as a success story. Tyler Pitlick has played more games. What gives? What’s your criteria?

    You may need five years to be sure, but other teams are graduating late round picks at a much faster rate than the Oilers. The Oilers may catch up, but that’s far from certain.

    To be top quartile my estimate is the Oilers will need to have at least 6 non first round draft picks from that period play at least 50 games to be top quartile. That’s based on looking at all NHL teams from 2007 to 2011 and looking at players outside the first round that have either played fifty games, or are highly likely to do so (Kuemper in Minnesota being an example). If a couple of players I don’t know well make the fifty game mark that could easily go to seven players. For that sample period, oilers were third quartile.

    Vancouver, Toronto and Winnipeg were horrible over this period and should be overhauling thier scouting departments. No wondering Canadian teams are struggling right now. Scouting is letting them down. Only Ottawa was top quartile and that requires three to four guys close to fifty games to make the cut.

  136. delooper says:

    Somehow “late round picks playing 50 games” seems like a dangerous metric to use. Those picks might be playing because the team is absolute rubbish. Or because of a big injury wave. They might not be playing because they’re good.

    A more reliable metric might be something like “two full seasons on the NHL team, or 50 games on their drafting team, and two full seasons on another NHL team”.

    Or playing 50 games on an **actual** NHL team, perhaps that should be the metric. So the Oilers, Buffalo, Islanders, Hurricanes, etc, can be excluded.

  137. gcw_rocks says:

    delooper:
    Somehow “late round picks playing 50 games” seems like a dangerous metric to use.Those picks might be playing because the team is absolute rubbish.Or because of a big injury wave.They might not be playing because they’re good.

    A more reliable metric might be something like “two full seasons on the NHL team, or 50 games on their drafting team, and two full seasons on another NHL team”.

    Or playing 50 games on an **actual** NHL team, perhaps that should be the metric. So the Oilers, Buffalo, Islanders, Hurricanes, etc, can be excluded.

    With the exception of the islanders, most of those bad teams scored poorly on this metric. It would appear, at least superficially, that late round pick success is correlated with teams being successful, rather than more late round picks being successful because they get chances on bad teams that others wouldn’t get.

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