OILERS AT FLYERS G12 2014-15

nugent-hopkins tbay capture

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is going to be relied on for a complete game tonight in Philadelphia. If the Corgi’s are barking at the Nuge and his line can’t post a crooked number, I don’t like the Oilers chances in this one.

PROJECTED LINES

  • Pouliot—Nuge—Eberle
  • Purcell—Arcobello—Perron
  • Hendricks—Draisaitl—Yakupov
  • Acton—Gordon—Joensuu

I would have thought Perron was the better fit on the 1line and that Yakupov would have been with Draisaitl and Pouliot, but the lines can change in a heartbeat and obsessing over things like lines is counterproductive. I wish they had a veteran center. It’s also true that much of the narrative after tonight’s game will probably involve things like “what the hell did Yakupov do with his big chance with Hall out” but he begins the evening with a 19-year old center and Matt Hendricks. I bet that changes at some point in the game, probably down 2-0.

 VOLLMAN SLEDGEHAMMER FORWARDS

vollman sledge nov 4 forward

FORWARDS BOXCARS AND FANCY STATS, WITH HALL IN THE LINEUP G’S 1-11

PLAYER BOXCARS CORSI FOR % OZ STARTS 5X5 PER 60 EV TOI
TAYLOR HALL 11gp, 6-4-10 53.3 66.7 2.59 15:09
DAVID PERRON 11gp, 1-5-6 52.7 71.8 1.71 12:58
RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS 9gp, 3-3-6 52.5 67.6 2.11 16:01
TEDDY PURCELL 11gp, 1-4-5 52.2 72.5 0.89 12:22
LEON DRAISAITL 11gp, 1-3-4 52.2 79.2 1.49 10:59
JORDAN EBERLE 10gp, 3-5-8 52.1 62.5 2.63 16:10
JESSE JOENSUU 11gp, 2-1-3 50.5 16.5 1.04 10:28
BOYD GORDON 11gp, 0-2-2 47.7 12.5 1.01 10:53
BENOIT POULIOT 11gp, 1-3-4 46.9 68.4 2.08 10:36
MATT HENDRICKS 11gp, 2-0-2 45.0 12.5 1.03 10:39
MARK ARCOBELLO 11gp, 2-2-4 43.8 69.7 0.84 13:09
NAIL YAKUPOV 11gp, 2-2-4 40.4 70.9 1.46 11:22

Arco and Yak simply have to do more with those zone starts, and while I’m at it Teddy Purcell hasn’t pissed a drop offensively at even strength this year. We’ll hold these numbers and compare them to what the boxcars and fancies say when Hall gets back. It’s probably a good idea to brace yourself for a dive in production, and I would be shocked if there are still four forwards over 1.80/60 5×5 points when No. 4 returns to the scene.

I don’t know how Dallas Eakins plans to handle the Giroux—Voracek—Raffl line head-to-head, but I think the Oilers have to score four in order to win this game. The performance of the 4line in the Vollman is incredible. I don’t think they can sustain the Corgi’s all year lifting boulders every night, but they’ve done it through 11 games.

PROJECTED PAIRINGS

  • Marincin—Petry
  • Nikitin—Schultz
  • Klefbom—Fayne

The neat thing about this lineup is you can reasonably trust two pairings in a game. If the Raffl line (it’s a great name for a line) is out against Marincin-Petry or Klefbom-Fayne it’s not a disaster, and on the road coach Eakins will probably rely heavily on those two for defensive zone starts. I should also mention Keith Aulie, the club could choose to put him into the lineup tonight.

 VOLLMAN SLEDGEHAMMER BLUE

vollman sledge nov 4 blue

DEFENSE BOXCARS AND FANCY STATS, WITH HALL IN THE LINEUP G’S 1-11

PLAYER BOXCARS CORSI FOR % OZ STARTS 5X5 PER 60 EV TOI
JEFF PETRY 10gp, 0-1-1 53.1 41.3 0.35 17:19
ANDREW FERENCE 11gp, 0-1-1 51.3 37.5 0.32 17:06
BRAD HUNT 6gp, 1-0-1 50.3 57.4 0.00 16:41
NIKITA NIKITIN 8gp, 1-2-3 50.2 64.1 0.91 16:41
JUSTIN SCHULTZ 11gp, 2-2-4 49.2 62.1 0.92 18:15
MARK FAYNE 11gp, 1-2-3 44.7 50.5 0.76 14:38
MARTIN MARINCIN 7gp, 0-1-1 40.1 42.3 0.56 15:31

Marincin has basically the same Corsi for as Yakupov, but the zone starts are a killer and his CF% is heading north. I expect Petry’s offense to improve with Marincin and fewer defensive ZS’s, he can help in this area. Finally, notice the ice time gap is closing? Good to see, hopefully the Oilers get an early lead tonight and can give more minutes among the strongest defensive pairings.

It is testimony to the quality of the young people that Marincin is facing (easily) the toughest competition, and young Klefbom is likely to join him starting tonight. The future is above the event horizon tonight men, unless they do something silly like play Aulie.

dusty acton Years ago, Bill James told a story about Tommie Aaron (Hank’s younger brother). Now Hank was an all-timer, the man was a majestic home run hitter. His brother was a career minor leaguer who would spend some time each season in the majors (437 career games in seven seasons). Anyway, this one day Tommie arrives long before game time for BP, and a small crowd shuffles in pre-game to watch. Aaron sends line drive after line drive (he wasn’t gifted with Aaron’s power) into the outfield, trying to improve what God gave him. Finally, after a long while, a woman shouts from the stands “hit it, Hank!” and Tommie Aaron continues the futile slog that is playing baseball in his brother’s shadow. He died at 45, leukemia.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

nicoA busy show, TSN 1260 beginning at 10 this morning.

  • 10:05 Jonathan Willis, Cult of Hockey, Sportsnet, Oilers Nation. We’ll chat about Oilers w/o Hall, expectations of the road trip and Nail’s linemates.
  • 10:25 Rod Smith, TSN. Final CFL weekend and still lots to figure out. Rod will help us.
  • 11:00 Scott Cullen, TSN. Explaining the Oilers, the Flames and the Canucks via analytics.
  • 11:25 Guy Flaming, Pipeline Show. Oil Kings and the 2015 draft.

10-1260 via text and @Lowetide_ on twitter. Talk soon!

 

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452 Responses to "OILERS AT FLYERS G12 2014-15"

« Older Comments
  1. []JUST[]KEEP[]CALM[]AND[]CORSI[]ON[] says:

    RexLibris: We could certainly use some flammable catharsis around here.

    At this point, I’d settle for inflammable!

  2. Zangetsu says:

    Last place in the west and 2 points outof DFL. PROGRESS…. wait.

  3. []JUST[]KEEP[]CALM[]AND[]CORSI[]ON[] says:

    Zangetsu:
    Last place in the west and 2 points outof DFL. PROGRESS…. wait.

    Sedated for McDavid

  4. rickithebear says:

    RexLibris:
    Flames 4-3 in OT.

    Lost the Corsi battle 60/40.

    Its as though Burke is waging a guerilla war on analytics.

    box analytics say they should be a real good GA team

    GF?
    Weidman 5G 17.2% 2.9times higher 1.7G +3.3
    Raymond 5G 20.8% 2.1 times higher 2.4G +2.6
    Giordano 4G 12.9% 1.8 times higher 2.2G +1.8
    Brodie 4G 16.7% 4.0 grimes higher 1G + 3.0
    Hudler 3G 21.4% 1.5 times higher 2.0G +1.0G
    Jooris 3G 27.3% best case 2 times higher +1.5g
    Bouma 3G 23.1% 3.4 times higher 0.9G +2.1G
    Granlund 2G 33.3% based on SMligga 2g +2.0G
    17.3G over career average.

    monohan -1.5G
    glencross -1.6g
    colburne -.7G
    3.8G under

    13.5G over expected career average.
    41Gf 32GA +9
    28GF 32GA -4

    82GM bitches.

  5. VanOil says:

    RexLibris: In which case there will be a bloodletting. Either within management or at the ticket office.

    I doubt it. The consensus around here during the HunterPoll seemed to be around a 20th place finish. With a strong finish and a Hall injury to mask the overall odor I think Kingsway can spin a 24th place finish to themselves and the fans. Give or take prolonged $70 a barrel Oil. Yeg fans may get fussy with there entertainment dollar when sitting on thinner wallets.

  6. Zangetsu says:

    []JUST[]KEEP[]CALM[]AND[]CORSI[]ON[],

    Why stop there, let’s get MacGregor to some Timbits games.

  7. rickithebear says:

    play scrivens 70 games this year.

  8. rickithebear says:

    box shots said 1 G from 7 shots fasth gave up 4!

  9. Clay says:

    Woodguy: “Playing for each other” creates a PDO of 1041

    They should bottle it.

    Give it a rest WG. You’re better than resorting to “your argument is invalid because you’re a dummy poo-poo face”. I apologize if I have offended you by not kneeling before the god of fancystats tonight; I just watched a team that I’ve bled for for the past 32 years play their 94th game under their latest head coach and look as pathetic under his “system” as they did in game 1.

    Additionally, I don’t believe there’s any need to cat-call me for venting my frustration here. Last I looked, I didn’t need your permission to post, and I also don’t ever belittle you for using advanced stats to explain how the Oilers are “improving”.

    Re: Colorado – show me a Colorado fan who actually knew what a Corsi or Corgi or Fenwick was last year, and I’ll show you 10,000 who were highly entertained by watching their “horrible, under-performing, lucky” team make the playoffs.

    Re: Flames – the city is buzzing over their team right now. No one cares what the underlying stats are. Even the hardcores who KNOW that their team can’t sustain this pace over 82 games because they’re losing the Corsi battle on a regular basis, are enjoying the SHIT out of the run they’re on.

    Hockey is entertainment. Advanced stats (or any stats, really) are fun, sure. But they aren’t the reason anyone watches hockey. It’s about winning. Full stop. We’ve been deprived of that for so freaking long as Oilers fans, that we use advanced stats to try to pick up the faintest of silver linings in all this suckage. We try to convince ourselves that there are good loses now, because our team directed 2% more pucks in the vicinity of the opposition’s net than they did ours. That the good times are right around the corner. Just wait. Just wait. They’re coming.

    Do the Flames suck? Damn right. I freaking hate them. It kills me that I can watch their games and be more entertained than watching my own team. And, yes, I fully believe they will finish well back of the playoffs. But, newsflash, so will the Oilers. The big difference is that one team is vastly overachieving and providing very high entertainment value, and one team is underachieving and losing games they could be winning.

    If you’re honestly sitting there telling me you prefer the latter over the former, then I don’t know what to say.

  10. Zangetsu says:

    Clay,

    Why are you watching Flames games? Are you dumb?

  11. Zangetsu says:

    I seriously wonder if MacT is using Dellows knowledge to make sure the team loses despit solid metrics. What other options are there?

  12. TireFire says:

    rickithebear: box analytics say they should be a real good GA team

    GF?
    Weidman 5G 17.2% 2.9times higher 1.7G +3.3
    Raymond 5G 20.8% 2.1 times higher 2.4G +2.6
    Giordano 4G 12.9% 1.8 times higher 2.2G +1.8
    Brodie 4G 16.7% 4.0 grimes higher 1G + 3.0
    Hudler 3G 21.4% 1.5 times higher 2.0G +1.0G
    Jooris 3G 27.3%best case 2 times higher +1.5g
    Bouma 3G 23.1% 3.4 times higher 0.9G +2.1G
    Granlund 2G 33.3% based on SMligga 2g +2.0G
    17.3G over career average.

    monohan -1.5G
    glencross -1.6g
    colburne-.7G
    3.8G under

    13.5G over expected career average.
    41Gf 32GA +9
    28GF 32GA -4

    82GM bitches.

    Someday we’re going to find a Rosetta Stone and figure out what all these random letters mean. I figure it’s something about biochemical markers affecting DNA replication.

  13. Ice Sage says:

    Zangetsu:
    I seriously wonder if MacT is using Dellows knowledge to make sure the team loses despit solid metrics. What other options are there?

    That you can’t make chicken salad out of chicken sh!t
    (dumb saying #72b)

  14. "Frank The Dog" says:

    RexLibris:
    Guy Fawkes day tomorrow.

    Remember, remember
    The 5th of November
    Gunpower, treason and plot.


    I see no reason
    Why gunpowder, treason
    Should ever be forgot.

    So…who are we burning in effigy?

    As an aside, I love how the English can take a villainous character from their history and embrace it to the extent of having a national holiday. Read a book years ago about the history of the celebration and the cathartic/subversive role it has played in the British national psyche over the centuries.

    We could certainly use some flammable catharsis around here.

    Guy was hung, disembowelled and cut into 4 pieces. May be a bit of an extreme punishment for a losing coach. I think they did the same to Mussollini at the end of WW2 as well.

    Guy’s crime was his plan to blow up the Parliament buildings. I think they caught him there surrounded by barrels full of gunpowder all strung together. Hence the fireworks side of the celebration. In terms of the bonfire I can only guess they barbecued his remains once they were done quartering him.

  15. Bling says:

    Quick: who remembers the Nilsson/Cogs/Gagner led Oilers riding a hot shooting percentage to success?

    Was that real? Nope.

    LT brought up Renney with Khabby on fire.

    Was that real? Nope.

    The Oilers, for the first time in god damn forever, are playing honest hockey.

    There are problems — getting Yak to go supernova, production from the 2C and 3C spots, the goalies — but there are a ton of positives.

    It’s easy to lose sight of that, but they are playing well. The effort is there, the skill is there.

    For the first time in forever.

    Isn’t that something to cheer for?

  16. Bling says:

    I think we need to give Fasth a break on this one.

    Bad games happen, let’s move on.

    Scrivens has turned the corner, and I’m sure Fasth will as well.

  17. Hammers says:

    Maybe the question is Will Eakins ride out the fact this team didn’t look ready to play tonight .They Came out flat and don’t put it all on Fasth .

  18. G Money says:

    Zangetsu:
    Clay,

    Why are you watching Flames games? Are you dumb?

    I thought he was a Dummy Poo-Poo Face?

    Am I allowed to use that term, or does WG have a (c) on it?

  19. Jon K says:

    So, how about those McEichel sweepstakes? If the Oil finish 2-5 in the draft rankings they have a decent shot at one.

    I wonder how many years of rebuilding it might take for Lowe to get fired, hypothetically?

  20. Hammers says:

    Lowetide:
    That was a frustration fight by Hendricks. It would be better if he didn’t make bad plays, though.

    Then play him on a line he can succeed ! Gordon’s .

  21. "Frank The Dog" says:

    Bling:
    Quick: who remembers the Nilsson/Cogs/Gagner led Oilers riding a hot shooting percentage to success?

    Was that real? Nope.

    LT brought up Renney with Khabby on fire.

    Was that real? Nope.

    The Oilers, for the first time in god damn forever, are playing honest hockey.

    There are problems — getting Yak to go supernova, production from the 2C and 3C spots, the goalies — but there are a ton of positives.

    It’s easy to lose sight of that, but they are playing well. The effort is there, the skill is there.

    For the first time in forever.

    Isn’t that something to cheer for?

    Let’s not suck on too much of this ether. Winning and losing is real. Stats simply separate the flashes in the pans from the solid foundations. How can the team not look disjointed when they break up lines that were starting to gel? Sure Hall is hurt. Doesn’t mean you screw over every single line. Made worse by Junior’s retention on the big team, padding his paydays without having to play.

    Sorry, when you are trying to claw your way up from the bottom there is no room for slack.

    Should have kept Poo with Drai and Yak, Hendricks with Gordon and Joensuu, Perron with Nuge and put Pakarinen out with Arco. That’s my narrative and I’m sticking to it.

  22. G Money says:

    Bling,

    All of that stuff is true, and I’ve been right in there with all the other stats-slingers, poking into the numbers to find the evidence for what is, or should be, an honest to goodness improvement.

    The problem is that, for all that, the Oilers keep losing games they should be winning.

    The problem with THAT is that losing can become habitual. In pro sports, confidence is everything, and every “unfair” loss creates just another crack in the psyche.

    Then every game becomes a matter of “oh oh, when’s the next bad break going to happen?”, and next thing you know, just like that you’re clutching your stick tight, and bang, oops, that bad break has happened, just like you knew it was going to.

    The best time to ensure that mindset never gets ingrained is at the start of the season, when every team is in first place.

    So despite the underlying stats that say the Flames are a piece of shit team and the Oilers are a mediocre one, once the thought that “we always win no matter how bad we play” vs “we always lose no matter how good we play” seeps into their respective subconsciouses, then soon you’ve got a shitty team that never gives up and a mediocre team that folds like a cheap tent at the first sign of adversity.

    My narrative goes against every one of my stathead instincts. But it’s a story that has played out a 1000 times in every sport ever. That I think is at least part of the story of why a team like the Leafs or Avs can cheat the stats for an entire season.

    I’ve been an Oiler fan since 1979 and an Eskimo fan since 1977, and those early dynastic teams chained me to a bandwagon I can never unhitch myself from, but I can tell you from watching this and so many other teams, from great to terrible, that the Oilers find themselves solidly on the path to yet another lost season.

    It’s the psychology of it, not the statistics.

    Go ahead and tell me I’m wrong.

  23. teddyturnbuckle says:

    The Oilers are a jumbo jet full of bricks in a nose dive. When it crashes and the dust settles, McDavid will be standing there. If that happens everyone should be fired except the coaching staff (Can’t have more new coaches in here, you just can’t). Failure cannot be rewarded with the next Crosby. At some point Lowe needs to jump on the Grenade and Leave the Oilers to go work for Katz enterprises with Bob N doing non hockey related tasks.

  24. Hammers says:

    Did something unexplainable at the end of the 2nd I watched American election results and I was more entertained . Reading all these comments shows I made the right choice . Oiler fan since Al Hamilton and some nights I think those old teams showed more than this crew . Just sad I guess .

  25. Clay says:

    G Money:
    Bling,

    All of that stuff is true, and I’ve been right in there with all the other stats-slingers, poking into the numbers to find the evidence for what is, or should be, an honest to goodness improvement.

    The problem is that, for all that, the Oilers keep losing games they should be winning.

    The problem with THAT is that losing can become habitual.In pro sports, confidence is everything, and every “unfair” loss creates just another crack in the psyche.

    Then every game becomes a matter of “oh oh, when’s the next bad break going to happen?”, and next thing you know, just like that you’re clutching your stick tight, and bang, oops, that bad break has happened, just like you knew it was going to.

    The best time to ensure that mindset never gets ingrained is at the start of the season, when every team is in first place.

    So despite the underlying stats that say the Flames are a piece of shit team and the Oilers are a mediocre one, once the thought that “we always win no matter how bad we play” vs “we always lose no matter how good we play” seeps into their respective subconsciouses, then soon you’ve got a shitty team that never gives up and a mediocre team that folds like a cheap tent at the first sign of adversity.

    My narrative goes against every one of my stathead instincts.But it’s a story that has played out a 1000 times in every sport ever. That I think is at least part of the story of why a team like the Leafs or Avs can cheat the stats for an entire season.

    I’ve been an Oiler fan since 1979 and an Eskimo fan since 1977, and those early dynastic teams chained me to a bandwagon I can never unhitch myself from, but I can tell you from watching this and so many other teams, from great to terrible, that the Oilers find themselves solidly on the path to yet another lost season.

    It’s the psychology of it, not the statistics.

    Go ahead and tell me I’m wrong.

    Well put, and I agree totally. It’s nice to see a “math” person with perspective.

    Not everything in sports can be put into a statistic, nor can it always be explained away as luck.

  26. VanOil says:

    teddyturnbuckle,

    Interesting idea. I do not think firing the coach, GM or President of Hockey Opps will lead to the Oilers wining this year. In normal markets hiring a new hockey president with a storied past is a way for an owner to reassure season ticket holders. In Edmonton it is the opposite, the symbolic gesture of firing a President with a storied past might be needed to reassure ticket holders that the Owner cares about winning.

    I really don’t think this will help the team win but it less harmful than doing something stupid like trading Yakupov or Eberle. The price paid in emotional pain by the fans to acquire these two players needs to be carefully accounted for by the owner. Lowe’s grenade will be hands of season ticket holders come renewal time. Even by Lowe’s standard we are in year 5 of the Hall rebuild.

  27. Jon K says:

    G Money,

    By the by, the stats suggest the Oilers have a 10% chance of making the playoffs. 31% they finish DFL in the west.

    http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Western/Pacific/Edmonton.html

  28. G Money says:

    VanOil,

    Re: coaching.

    I’ve put my opinion on the coaching situation into words a few times.

    Both Eakins and Krueger were rookies who should never have been hired, and then went right out and proved themselves terrible coaches, and both deserved to be shitcanned.

    Renney did not deserve to be shitcanned, he got the most out of the worst roster, but he was anyway. That’s the single biggest coaching mistake so far.

    I find the criticism of Eakins that relies on pretending Krueger (who rode a mid-season form first line, hot goalie and unsustainable special teams percentages to a seventh last finish) was a good coach to be bizarre.

    However, even as the hiring of Eakins was a mistake, I also get the mindset that the coaching carousel has been part of the problem, and giving a rookie coach another year is an understandable risk.

    At this point, though, I’m not sure that its worth it. At least not if there is a respected and veteran coach out there to be had (is there?).

    The team so far is definitely playing with more structure than before, especially defensively, for sure. How much is that is Eakins and how much is Ramsay?

    One thing I can say for sure is that this roster brings a sub-par effort more often than not, and in the NHL, that’s enough to guarantee a bottom tier finish. If that’s on the roster, then gut it. But it seems more like its on the coaching, and that’s a firing offense.

    So I ask again – have the results so far truly justified the value of continuity of coaching, especially if there is a veteran coach (not fossil like Quinn) with a track record of success available? What would e.g. Vigneault been able to do with this very same roster?

  29. G Money says:

    Jon K,

    Yup. I actually picked them to finish out of the playoffs this year, but my logical hope was that the possibility of finishing DFL was way way lower as well. I was relatively on board with the whole 10th/20th thing, though I figured a number of things would have to break well for that to happen. There is no circumstance I can think of in which the Oilers proving me an optimist would be a good thing.

  30. G Money says:

    Clay,

    Dammit mang, I just called you a Dummy Poo-Poo Face (c), you can’t turn around and agree with me, it’s just not good form!

  31. Clay says:

    G Money,

    My apologies, you’re right.

    Shit.

    Never mind.

  32. hags9k says:

    Cheers to Bling for keeping the faith.

    The reality is we have no elite D man to eat minutes and rake away mistakes.

    We have average tending right now, and that might be generous.

    Our 1C and 2C are 21 and 19. Just think about that for a minute and make the required adjustments to your expectations. Welcome to scorched earth people, there is no easy way out. This is going to take awhile.

    I’m not a Eakins guy, but have decided it is pointless to continue bashing him as I did in the early season last year. We will likely be two more coaches down the road before we make any noise in spring.

    But I’m with you Bling, there is a glimmer of better play this year. We need to build on it and realize this is a year to grow, but it’s going to hurt like hell.

    GOILERS!

  33. OilClog says:

    Kruger did what but lead this team to its best finish since MacT, against only western conference opponents, with no training camp, with no defence, 4 forwards, duct tape, shoe string, Lima beans, and Ryan Whitneys Twitter abuse.

    Ralph made mistakes, but this Eakins story is worse then Ralph’s ever was other then his ending which will probably be a 180 to Eakins where Oilerland will have a dog God friggin parade over it.

    Eakins is that amature hour. No donuts, no tradition, no defence, no gives a fuck, ride a bike, talk a lot, and take your lumps. It’s ugly, the die hards are turning and I don’t know what that spells in the long run of this team other then it’s doesn’t look good.

  34. stevezie says:

    Caramel Obvious: Thought experiment. Try and analyze the game knowing everything that happened except whether the puck went in the net. This is the path.

    I recommended the same path last year when the team started the year with some decent hockey but was absolutely submarined by goaltending. It’s a good thought experiment.

    Some of its limits, however, are on display by applying it to tonight’s game.

    So let’s just ignore Fasth and the Flyers’ four goals. They scored 1 goal against Steve Mason playing behind the Flyers’ defence. Posts happen, I reject this excuse. They got some shots, but you should get shots against the Flyers. Apart from one beautiful RNH rush the Oilers (especially the powerplay) were competent, but not dangerous.

    It wasn’t the garbage fire the score paints it as, but the Oilers took a prostitute out to diner and got a goodnight kiss.

  35. Woodguy says:

    Clay: Give it a rest WG.You’re better than resorting to “your argument is invalid because you’re a dummy poo-poo face”.I apologize if I have offended you by not kneeling before the god of fancystats tonight; I just watched a team that I’ve bled for for the past 32 years play their 94th game under their latest head coach and look as pathetic under his “system” as they did in game 1.

    Additionally, I don’t believe there’s any need to cat-call me for venting my frustration here.Last I looked, I didn’t need your permission to post, and I also don’t ever belittle you for using advanced stats to explain how the Oilers are “improving”.

    Re: Colorado – show me a Colorado fan who actually knew what a Corsi or Corgi or Fenwick was last year, and I’ll show you 10,000 who were highly entertained by watching their “horrible, under-performing, lucky” team make the playoffs.

    Re: Flames – the city is buzzing over their team right now.No one cares what the underlying stats are.Even the hardcores who KNOW that their team can’t sustain this pace over 82 games because they’re losing the Corsi battle on a regular basis, are enjoying the SHIT out of the run they’re on.

    Hockey is entertainment.Advanced stats (or any stats, really) are fun, sure.But they aren’t the reason anyone watches hockey.It’s about winning.Full stop.We’ve been deprived of that for so freaking long as Oilers fans, that we use advanced stats to try to pick up the faintest of silver linings in all this suckage.We try to convince ourselves that there are good loses now, because our team directed 2% more pucks in the vicinity of the opposition’s net than they did ours.That the good times are right around the corner.Just wait.Just wait.They’re coming.

    Do the Flames suck?Damn right.I freaking hate them.It kills me that I can watch their games and be more entertained than watching my own team.And, yes, I fully believe they will finish well back of the playoffs.But, newsflash, so will the Oilers.The big difference is that one team is vastly overachieving and providing very high entertainment value, and one team is underachieving and losing games they could be winning.

    If you’re honestly sitting there telling me you prefer the latter over the former, then I don’t know what to say.

    Well that’s a totally different argument than what you provided before.

    You went from “they’re winning because they play for each other” to “I know its unsustainable but winning is more fun than losing”

    I jumped on the former argument because its wrong and everyone knows it is, but agree with the second.

    I wouldn’t mind seeing some wins.

    That being said, I want the Oilers to win the Cup again in my lifetime and as we’ve seen over the last 9 years, the better Fenclose teams compete for the cup, everyone else is noise unless you get .944 in the playoffs, which can happen, but you can’t bank on it like you can a superior Fenclose team.

  36. Woodguy says:

    “Frank The Dog”,

    Let’s not suck on too much of this ether. Winning and losing is real. Stats simply separate the flashes in the pans from the solid foundations

    Exactly.

  37. SwedishPoster says:

    Yeah sure there’s an argument that we lost because we were let down by goaltending and lacking finish. But when that happens time and time again it’s not a good pattern. And probably a symptom of something else. This team finds ways to lose and not the other way around and that’s not a good thing.

    On the positive Yak and RNH tried to step up in Halls abscence, if Yak keeps firing he’ll start scoring. Klefbom outside of some messy moments looked good, I’ve always felt he has “top pairing poise” the question is whether he has the talentlevel and consistency to fulfill that poise, I’m still a believer though he’s more likely a top 4 guy when all is said and done.
    On the downside the rest of the forwards didn’t really grab it by the balls. Fasth could have stopped all 4 goals and should have stopped at least two. The PP was godawful and needs to be mixed up. Get Yak and RNH together. The team as a whole gets a lot of shots off but never really feels like their buzzing offensively. And last but certainly not least, as stated, this team keeps finding ways to lose games. Time and time again. I wouldn’t be opposed bringing in a shrink.

    Will Acton really tries and seems like a good guy but I really hope that experiment is over. Get Lander, Iiro, Pitlick someone else up here. I personally would give Anton one last chance, play him on the left and if he shows good, when Hall returns he can maybe push Arco for the center spot. But I’d be fine with any move.
    Loktvinov if he’s healthy? Will probably need some conditioning though.

  38. Woodguy says:

    hags9k,

    We have average tending right now, and that might be generous

    Yeah, that’s generous.

    NHL 5v5 SV% by team:

    FLA 97.01
    NSH 95.44
    L.A 95.07
    STL 94.84
    PIT 94.5
    CGY 94.39
    ANA 94.14
    OTT 94.03
    CHI 93.75
    TOR 93.28
    N.J 93.09
    WPG 93.05
    S.J 92.83
    DET 92.38
    COL 92.31
    MIN 92.05
    BUF 91.98
    BOS 91.73
    MTL 91.54
    DAL 90.84
    PHI 90.78
    T.B 90.72
    NYR 90.61
    VAN 90.39
    CBJ 90.04
    NYI 90
    EDM 89.93
    WSH 89.67
    CAR 88.18
    ARI 87.92

    Oilers are a day trip with bathroom breaks away from average (BOS, BUF)

    Here’s total SV% (including special teams)

    FLA 93.86
    L.A 93.53
    ANA 93.37
    NSH 93.27
    OTT 93.02
    CHI 93.01
    CGY 92.67
    WPG 92.49
    DET 92.47
    STL 92.25
    COL 92.17
    TOR 92.16
    MIN 92.14
    S.J 92.11
    PIT 92.09
    BOS 91.21
    BUF 91.16
    T.B 90.83
    MTL 90.77
    VAN 90.31
    N.J 89.97
    PHI 89.86
    NYR 89.85
    CBJ 88.99
    WSH 88.93
    DAL 88.92
    EDM 88.69
    CAR 88.13
    NYI 88.07
    ARI 87.5

  39. Woodguy says:

    Had a quick look at posts from Nov 2013.

    This one stuck out: http://lowetide.ca/2013/11/08/burning-daylight/

    The Edmonton Oilers are now 4-11-2 and screwed blue for the 2013-14 season. We’re not far from the ten year anniversary of the 2006 run and the playoffs remain a distant bell.

    Oilers are 4-7-1 today with 4 games left on the roadie. Hmmmmm.

    Then:

    2010-11: .921
    2011-12: .927
    2012-13: .922
    2013-14: .876
    This is Devan Dubnyk in a box. If you believe Dubnyk will return to the 920’s then making a deal is a silly idea. If you don’t, then making a trade is the right call.

    Oilers SV% today .887

    Man.

  40. Caribbeerman says:

    Morning After Rant…

    The Oilers remain a broken squad and lacks balance, toughness and compete.

    Justin Shultz – is NOT very good in his own end and is just above average in the O-zone. He is getting way too much ice time and is overvalued by the franchise. He is a 3rd D pairing with an expanded PP role. That is all.

    Jordan Eberle – Is a very skilled complimentary player on a team or a line made up of large physical players who create space for him. The Oilers have neither.

    If I were the Oilers GM I would be focusing my attention on acquiring in order of need…

    1) A true #1 defenseman who can play 25 – 30 minutes a game (and you will see how the remainder of the defense will improve once this happens)

    2) A top 6 physical winger who can score, win battles on the wall and in front of the net – we played against one last night in Simmonds

    3) A 2nd or 3rd line center to help cover for Draisaitl and Arcobello. The rookie is playing fairly well but is playing too safe and is afraid to make mistakes (or to use his body to hit people). I can’t understand why, if he really is available, Kyle Brodziak is not yet an Oiler – he would be perfect.

    For #’s 1 & 2 on this list I make Shultz and Eberle available along with anyone else not named Hall, RNH, Draisaitl or Nurse.

    Finally, if this team continues to perform at this level (unacceptable) the owner MUST clean house and start over – completely. New GM, Coach, new approach. No “boys on the buss” recruitment this time. Find the best most proven men to full the positions and let them do their jobs. (I really do like MacTavish and support his moves but he gets lumped with the group if the team does not improve.)

    Just my 2 cents!

  41. Big Dan says:

    Look, I know there is a lot of gnashing of teeth right now because of our record. It looks bad.

    You can pay a guy millions but it doesn’t make him any less human. If I make a mistake, I get called out by my boss. Scrivens has 17,000 fans glaring at him and he has to go into the locker room and face his teammates. Remember fuhr and moog were also terrible at puck handling (moog eventually became good) but the margin of error was not as tight for them.

    Eakins had to play fasth. He’s not going to get any less rusty sitting longer. He’s human, he had a rough night. But both he and scrivens are solid goalies who will be better from this day forward.

    I think days will get better despite the fact Mact’s biggest mistake is still standing behind the bench. Other than two games, the oiler games have been close and they’ve played reasonably well.

    Mact’s plan b, trading petry for a c, won’t transpire since fayne and nikitin won’t be able to replace him. Good news is it sounds by the posturing like petry will be signed in the 4s, which is fair. Also, if Mact kicked the tires on brodziak, chances are he’ll be here soon as things get desperate. Arco has shown he is a quality 4c but that’s it. Yak and drai are in a scoring slump right now but look ready to break out. Perron and eberle have stepped up.

  42. MenovOil says:

    Eberle+Schultz won’t get you a Weber, Keith, Subban, Doughty or Karlsson; that’s crazy talk. Outside of Doughty, none of these guys were top picks. When we started this tanking crusade, Lowe rationalized that we would have to bottom out to get the kind of talent that elite teams are made of. Should we brace ourselves for 4 more years of tanking to get quality d-men now? How can an organization fail so badly at everything?

    Speaking of top picks, Yakupov is really disappointing. Our standards are so low we are now celebrating the mere fact that he’s on the right side of the blue line when the puck is in our end. The offense though is missing. Badly. Another 30 point season seems likely at this point. The likes of Galchenyuk and F. Forsberg are quite simply on a completely other level; it’s not even close.

  43. Ryan says:

    Nothing boys. I’ve got nothing to say. That’s it.

  44. Yeti says:

    Bling: Scrivens has turned the corner, and I’m sure Fasth will as well.

    Absolutely. Find someone who’s turning, and you will come around.

  45. Pouzar says:

    The splitting up of the wagon line absolutely neutered my f^ckin enthusiasm for this game going in. That was such a mind numbingly dumb move that I watched the game without even getting angry at what I was watching. It’s like it takes this coaching staff years to figure out what we already know(i.e. Brad Hunt and Keith Acton are not NHLers).

    Send Acton Packin. Bring up Hero for an audition. At least he will irritate a few people and for gord sakes leave the wagon line in tact.

  46. Pouzar says:

    SIGH

    #41 Will Acton, 2. Plugged into the checking line with Gordon and Joensuu, found himself fishing the puck out of Oilers’ net after his very first shift, an overlong 66 seconds exacerbated by an icing committed by Acton himself. During his 9 minutes of even strength ice time, Oilers attempted just 1 shot on net, Philadelphia 10. He blocked 3 of those drives himself to avoid the dreaded “1” rating, but the puck was never going north during his time, and his linemates Gordon and Joensuu struggled with their new winger. By the third period they were reunited with Hendricks while Acton found himself nailed to the bench, playing just one shift.

  47. russ99 says:

    IMO, our roster is improved but we have to stop making such obvious mistakes in coaching, player procurement and day to day roster decisions.

    I really wonder if our fancy stat improvement hand in hand with lower scoring and similar goals allowed numbers and better goaltending is just Eakins using Dellow’s and his new assistant’s ideas piggybacked on top of the same broken systems and strategies as last year?

    Plus that whole “replace Eakins with Messier” story floating around makes me think that if we see similar thinking by our management we saw after the Krueger request for help – a coaching change could make things worse, not better.

  48. Cobbler says:

    These fellows need to find the net more.

    # Pos Player GP G A P +/- PIM PP SH GW S S%
    57 L David Perron 12 1 5 6 -8 0 0 0 0 28 3.60
    16 R Teddy Purcell 12 1 4 5 -8 0 1 0 0 18 5.60
    67 L Benoit Pouliot 12 1 3 4 -2 6 0 0 1 15 6.70
    10 R Nail Yakupov 12 2 2 4 -6 2 0 0 0 26 7.70

    This team currently lacks secondary scoring. Those shot totals and percentages are dreadful from players with this level of skill.

    That and some league average goaltending would go a long way.

    Last night there were a lot of shots from the perimeter by the Oil and they got beat to the puck a lot.

  49. "Frank The Dog" says:

    If teams with a good Fenclose win, then the question is not whether you get a good Fenclose but how. Don’t tell me by getting the higher % of non-blocked shots in the O-Zone when the score differential is <2. I mean how do you obtain that kind of po"c"ession.

    But this only addresses number of unblocked shots in comparison to the opponents in a close game. It doesn't show the part of the equation that Ricki goes on about, and in fact is stats are complimentary to the Fenclose, Because Fenclose only counts the relative number of unblocked shots in close games. Their speed, accuracy, placement, origin and predictability (whether an average goalie can expect to see it coming) all play a part, as does the Goalie's combined size, positioning and reflexes. Of these, Ricki's stats tend to focus on origin. So all of the other aspects are variables.

    So there are stolen wins for sure, where a team wins in spite of a poor Fenwick against a drunk Goalie, and I'll grant we all love those wins but the question is not only how do we get the team to a good fenclose, but how do we measure and improve the other factors as well. Electronics of course but that's another subject.

    The point here is the human factor that produces wins. It's not only psychology, it's Common Sense and an understanding the jigsaws and patterns of individual personalities, not only what it takes to motivate people to work harder but how to remove the adrenalin that impedes the thought process, and then to put the right pieces together.

    This fucking idiot had an NHL leading Fird/Thourth line. I knew that moving Hendricks off tha tline would fuck it up and it did just that. Emasculated the line and frustrated Hendricks.
    Poo was working better and better with Drai and Yak has shown promise with Yak in the past. Why on Gord's green earth pull that line apart and put anyone other than Perron, who has also been ok there in the past, on that line? I'll warrant that the Drai and Gordon lines would have done just fine as they were.

    Arco has proven to be ok with virtually anybody. If there's a line that can do ok with limited minutes it's him. So why oh why do you put Purcell on his off wing? And, Perron has worked well with the Nuge line in the past. Not great, but well enough.

    Finally, Acton (spits) (head explodes)

  50. j says:

    MenovOil,

    I agree that Yak isn’t as capable/complete a player as Forsberg/Galch. But we knew what he was when drafted – a dynamic shooter who buzzes around the o-zone. He isn’t someone who drives the bus. He doesn’t create offense per se. There was a brief moment under Krueger where Yak was being deployed properly and his skills maximized. It hasn’t happened since. He is playing 10-12 mins a night with a rookie centre. Horrible player management. To my eye, Yak looked really good for about 10 games this year but was being underutilized. He is starting to lose his spark now. Can’t really blame him.

  51. hags9k says:

    Woodguy,

    Thanks WG. I wonder what the #’s would look like if you take away the cough ups playing the puck. When he’s been in the net, he has looked at least average, wouldn’t you say?

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