OILERS AT PREDATORS, G16 2014-15

rnh common5 This is an exciting time to be an Edmonton Oilers fan. (Clears throat). THIS is an exciting time to be an Edmonton Oilers fan. Now that I have your attention, allow me to state my case.

  1. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is pushing the river.
  2. When Taylor Hall returns the Oilers might have two lines with a river pusher.
  3. Benoit Pouliot may in fact be that unicorn LW who can help with possession, scoring and physical play.
  4. Nail freaking Yakupov.
  5. Jordan Eberle is having a good season at even strength.
  6. Mark Arcobello! Lordy. We should call him Timex.
  7. Boyd Gordon and his demon forechecking linemates Jesse Joesnuu and Matt Hendricks.
  8. Iiro the Hero!
  9. Jeff Petry can wheel.
  10. Mark Fayne is helping with the Keith Aulie.
  11. Viktor Fasth as lightning.
  12. Dallas Eakins deploys the troops like a boss!

canada 1867

TURNING NORTH! (BIG BRAIN SAYS GOOD THINGS ABOUT TEAM!)

Michael Parkatti is a frequent guest on the Lowdown (he will appear again later in the week) and writes brilliantly about the Oilers. He also produces graphs and diorama’s for learning, and this time it’s a fancy stats breakdown at 15 games. The Corgi’s are dancing, baby, and Parkatti is bringing the results in verbal form:

  • Parkatti: My expected goals formula suggest they’ve scored 2 goals less than I’d expect and given up 9 goals more than I’d expect given shot locations and types.  So, a touch unlucky on the shooting side, and some amazing combination of sub-replacement level goaltending or historically bad luck on goals against.

And here we are. The Edmonton Oilers are 6-8-1 AND they’re not performing at do (re-mi). The downside? They are about to meet some powerful opposition who will stuff your Corsi’s in a sack, mister! Put another way, the Oilers didn’t get enough out of these 15 games to give themselves any kind of wiggle room against the monsters of the midway. The hammer and the thunder and the floods and pestilence are coming, and we have three sacks of wheat, oatmeal and enough water until Saturday.

Hang on to this, friends. The Edmonton Oilers are turning North. Finally.

5×5/60 (BTN) FORWARDS

  1. Taylor Hall 2.59
  2. Jordan Eberle 2.41
  3. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 2.31
  4. Benoit Pouliot 2.03
  5. Teddy Purcell 1.67
  6. Nail Yakupov 1.66
  7. David Perron 1.48
  8. Matt Hendricks 1.47
  9. Mark Arcobello 1.19
  10. Leon Draisaitl 1.14
  11. Boyd Gordon 1.11
  12. Jesse Joensuu 0.76

That’s a mighty fine list (technically Iiro Pakarinen is No. 1, 2.84/60, but he’s played only three games), especially if Yakupov and Purcell can clear 1.80/60. I was mulling over the idea of keeping Pouliot on the 1line when Hall returns (making it the 2line) and Dennis King suggested this yesterday:

  • Hall—Arcobello—Yakupov
  • Pouliot—Nugent-Hopkins—Eberle
  • Perron—Draisaitl—Purcell
  • Hendricks—Gordon—Joensuu

Thoughts? I would love to see 2 scoring lines (unicorns!) but sincerely wonder if that’s possible with this team, this year. Hall and Nuge can each drive the river though, so if you keep them apart until needed, it gives the coach another gear. This is so much better than talking about remaining patient! More please!

BARONS PLAY THIS MORNING!

moroz ferguson 1415

The AHL is delightfully quirky, and today there’s a morning game on the slate. I spoke to Eric Rodgers yesterday, and he had good things to say about Mitch Moroz (in photo by Rob Ferguson, all rights reserved), Dillon Simpson and Curtis Hamilton. Rodgers told me that Moroz (despite not scoring) was having a positive impact on the game in the early days of the year. That’s a hopeful sign, as new hires (especially the 20-year olds) often take a long period to adjust. Similar story for Simpson, a little older and with the college experience, but Rodgers detailed a specific strong defensive play where young Simpson aided Jordan Oesterle after a wayward decision.

The Hamilton news is interesting and I wonder if he can stay healthy long enough to get an NHL cup of coffee this season. There was talk of it a year ago when Hamilton enjoyed a nice stretch, but again injury took away his chance. I’d like to see it, just so we can get a look at him before the club decides next summer. Honestly, I’m surprised they retained him, and that suggests they see something. Interesting year in Oklahoma City.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

remembrance day 2014First, my sincere apologies for posting this before noon, it’s required because I am on the air today and there are things you might be interested in hearing. TSN 1260, 10 this morning.

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal. Bruce’s Dad served in the RCAF during World War 2, we’ll talk about our Dads and why today is so important for all of us. We’ll also chat about the Nuge, Edmonton’s turn north (is it real?) and the game tonight.
  • Guy Flaming, Pipeline Show. Greg Chase and his future, and the college experience versus junior experience. Does the NCAA better prepare players for the pro game?
  • At 11, we’ll have a special Remembrance Day presentation and one minute of silence to honor our veterans and those who gave their lives.
  • Travis Yost, TSN Analytics. A lot of Oilers and Senators questions, including what we can read into the improving shot differential for Edmonton.
  • Andrew Bucholtz, 55-yard line. Eskimos! We’ll talk western semi-final and Grey Cup favorites.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide_ on twitter.

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323 Responses to "OILERS AT PREDATORS, G16 2014-15"

« Older Comments
  1. VanOil says:

    Lowetide: Most Oilers power plays are just dreadful

    FTFY

  2. G Money says:

    That was actually a nice breakout to beat the Nsh forecheck, but of course it came to shit in the neutral zone and became nothing in the o zone.

  3. Pouzar says:

    How the **** do they miss that high stick? Really?

  4. G Money says:

    Pouzar,

    Shea Weber. He gets “the benefit of the doubt”.

  5. Clay says:

    Nice to see that *spits* Nystrom *spits* was on for both goals against. If someone would take out his knee, the Oilers could lose by 10 and I’d call it a win.

    Don’t mind me – I’m three weeks into the worst cold you can imagine, and I’m grumpy as hell.

  6. Marcus Oilerius says:

    Did Hockeystreams take a dump for anyone else?

  7. []JUST[]KEEP[]CALM[]AND[]CORSI[]ON[] says:

    Marcus Oilerius:
    Did Hockeystreams take a dump for anyone else?

    Big, steamy, and right on my face!

    Anyone got a pirate link?

  8. Pouzar says:

    Marcus Oilerius:
    Did Hockeystreams take a dump for anyone else?

    Yes.

  9. Ryan says:

    Suntory Hanzo:
    Ryan,

    Took me over a year to get thru season 3.

    As soon as they get back from ireland, it gets really good again. Just fight through it!!

    Thanks! If I can fight thru watching the Oilers, I should be able to fight thru watching anything, right?

    Nasville seems to get away with a fair amount of obstruction. I feel like I’m in a hockey time machine here.

  10. v4ance says:

    If we somehow win, Scrivens deserves full credit for shutting the door.

  11. G Money says:

    See, that was a perfect example of how i just don’t get the Oiler breakouts. Petry has the puck on the right side of the ice and as he’s skating it up, there are THREE Nsh players along the boards that side. So Petry chips it past them, and of course it goes straight to one of those players, giving up possession as a result. Is that really the only play available?

    That Neal breakaway was set up by a nasty uncalled cross check/spear to the back on Ference (?) in front of the net.

    Guess the “Southern US team better win” Bettman rules have come into effect.

  12. G Money says:

    Ference quite the offensive dynamo this period.

  13. Bos8 says:

    hockey streams is back.

  14. frjohnk says:

    Eakins has shortened the bench in the third.
    No joensu
    No drai
    No liro

    I think the Draisaitl experiment is over

  15. Kitchener says:

    Just tuning in… Nice to see that we’re still in this with a chance to complete the comeback.

  16. Lowetide says:

    This is a shame, you’ve got this team working their bags off and the coach can’t trust his 2line center. Seriously, it’s impossible to endure.

  17. VanOil says:

    Marcus Oilerius:
    Did Hockeystreams take a dump for anyone else?

    My dodgy free link went over to Person of Interest.

  18. Marcus Oilerius says:

    Sneaky pass by Yak, great hit by Perron.

    I wish goalies weren’t 6 and a half feet tall and clad in half a foot depth of featherweight rebound absorbing bullshitanium.

  19. "Frank The Dog" says:

    Lowetide:
    This is a shame, you’ve got this team working their bags off and the coach can’t trust his 2line center. Seriously, it’s impossible to endure.

    That would be Arco?

  20. Kitchener says:

    My new nickname for #10: !!!!!!!!!!

  21. Lowetide says:

    “Frank The Dog”: That would be Arco?

    Leon

  22. Ryan says:

    Lowetide:
    This is a shame, you’ve got this team working their bags off and the coach can’t trust his 2line center. Seriously, it’s impossible to endure.

    This.

  23. Marcus Oilerius says:

    “Frank The Dog”: That would be Arco?

    Drai, I imagine? I haven’t seen him this period…

  24. G Money says:

    I would say the Oilers are the better team this period. Nice to see.

    Officially this is would be chalked up to ‘score effects’ (down by 1 in the third), but this is an example of where I don’t buy the ‘down by 1’ definition as a legitimate example of a score effect.

  25. Marcus Oilerius says:

    Holy shit Schultz with a defensive play!!!

  26. G Money says:

    Man, see how the defensive structure is improved but the breakouts are just garbage sometimes.

  27. Marcus Oilerius says:

    OK, that was the first bit of sustained offensive pressure 5v5 against a really, really good defence I’ve seen from the Oilers this season.

  28. Lowetide says:

    G Money:
    Man, see how the defensive structure is improved but the breakouts are just garbage sometimes.

    Several puck mashers on the blue, and a few men who aren’t in the right spot to receive. Arcobello has had some tough moments, but man he’s a coach’s dream.

  29. G Money says:

    I know it’s fashionable to make fun of anyone who brings up things like ‘intensity’ and ‘effort’, but this period is a perfect example of what the Oilers often seem to be missing.

    If they could bring this kind of effort consistently from the first shift, instead of waiting to feel their way into the game and seemingly figure out if they can mail one in or not, they would NOT be a punching bag for the West.

  30. VanOil says:

    If MacT is as smart as some of you think he is Draisaitl and Chase will be leading the Oil Kings to a Memorial Cup this spring. I suspect Leon will be with the Oilers closing out another losing season and Chase will be eating too many Christmas treats before he plays again.

  31. G Money says:

    Lowetide,

    Yeah, could be, but I think in that particular instance it was Perron who messed up, not a guy I’d call a puck masher.

    EDIT: zone entries seem to have the same sort of strange misfires.

  32. Marcus Oilerius says:

    Yakupov get hurt? Looks like Perron landed on him after that hit on that defender…

  33. VanOil says:

    Yakupov hurt headed to the dressing room?

  34. G Money says:

    It would just be so Oilers if Yak gets hurt just as he’s starting to find his timing. Probably a shoulder.

  35. Marcus Oilerius says:

    G Money: Probably a shoulder.

    You go choke on those words!

  36. G Money says:

    Marcus Oilerius,

    I’m going for the reverse jinx. You know, how when you say ‘shutout’ and inevitably give up a fluky last minute goal

  37. dsr29 says:

    Same old. Bad goaltending early and no finish late.

  38. Lowetide says:

    G Money:
    Lowetide,

    Yeah, could be, but I think in that particular instance it was Perron who messed up, not a guy I’d call a puck masher.

    EDIT: zone entries seem to have the same sort of strange misfires.

    Didn’t know you were referring to something specific.

  39. G Money says:

    Did the play by play guy just say “as usual a terrific effort” about Yak? Doesn’t he realize Yak is Russian?

  40. G Money says:

    Lowetide,

    A particular sequence of three failed breakouts that reversed course five feet outside the blue line (the worst of which was the Perron try).

  41. PunjabiOil says:

    Goaltending costs the Oilers another game.

    Was never high on Fasth, and neither were the advanced stats guys.

    Eakins is costing his team by questionable decision making.

  42. Marcus Oilerius says:

    dsr29:
    Same old. Bad goaltending early and no finish late.

    Well, getting outshot 30-peanuts in two periods was a factor.

  43. G Money says:

    I will say this – though i don’t buy the idea that everything would be OK if only we had a 2C, I will say that if the Oilers had Ribeiro and Weber, they win this one walking away.

  44. []JUST[]KEEP[]CALM[]AND[]CORSI[]ON[] says:

    A solid 40 minute effort, and they almost pulled out the regulation tie against the 3rd place team in the west. Another game where we saw some good things happening, but it resulted in 0 points.

  45. Lowetide says:

    G Money:
    Lowetide,

    A particular sequence of three failed breakouts that reversed course five feet outside the blue line (the worst of which was the Perron try).

    Yeah, your original post didn’t say anything about specifics, so my response had a wider view.

  46. flyfish1168 says:

    Yak holding wrist after falling, as he headed to bench

  47. 99thoilerfan says:

    As a ” Stats Guy ” I saw good 100% effort ( =/- 2 % )

    Very good effort by the boys , I liked what I saw !

    I realize they have to carry the play to the Preds D style, but they did put the effort into trying… They were in it till the end.

  48. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    I’ve never been a fan, never was a fan of the signing–thought it was ridiculous overpay, tried to give him a chance, giving him an extra chance due to the ankle injury, but Nikki Nikitin…I’m really not a fan.

    Ha ha

  49. G Money says:

    PunjabiOil,

    That’s hindsight. Half the commenters said the obvious decision was to go with the hot hand. If he starts Scrivens and they lose, Eakins takes shit for the bad decision too. (And there’s no guarantee Scrivens plays well in that terrible first period).

    I’ve had plenty of criticism for Eakins, but this one’s silly – picking between these two hot-and-cold starting goalies is voodoo.

  50. Bos8 says:

    The Oilers are coming. Nashville jumped on them early but the team weathered the storm. I saw a lot of good things in those two periods. One, was playing with pride, didn’t cave.

  51. []JUST[]KEEP[]CALM[]AND[]CORSI[]ON[] says:

    PunjabiOil: Eakins is costing his team by questionable decision making.

    Because he played the goalie who had won the previous two games?

  52. Bling says:

    PunjabiOil:
    Goaltending costs the Oilers another game.

    Was never high on Fasth, and neither were the advanced stats guys.

    Eakins is costing his team by questionable decision making.

    Er, what are we blaming Eakins for?

  53. RexLibris says:

    Referees were killing it in the Conklin/60 tonight.

  54. Gordies Elbow says:

    PunjabiOil,

    Wasn’t goaltending.

    Centre out of position on two of three goals. One of those goals had a defender take himself out of position. (behind the net, no opposing player?)

    Two opposing players below the goal line, and a defender on his stomach? Late centre to cover == goal.

    While goaltending can improve, positional play should be the goat tonight.

  55. Pouzar says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”:
    I’ve never been a fan, never was a fan of the signing–thought it was ridiculous overpay, tried to give him a chance, giving him an extra chance due to the ankle injury, but Nikki Nikitin…I’m really not a fan.

    Ha ha

    Saw him good for the first few but he’s been terrible lately. If MM doesn’t draw in for this guy then I dunno what to think.

  56. Henry says:

    []JUST[]KEEP[]CALM[]AND[]CORSI[]ON[]:
    A solid 40 minute effort, and they almost pulled out the regulation tie against the 3rd place team in the west. Another game where we saw some good things happening, but it resulted in 0 points.

    The good things I saw happening were mainly from the first line. Their jump and boardwork against Josi and Weber was terrific pretty much throughout. Eberle looks over whatever injury he had. This is encouraging.

    Nikitin’s play is a liability. I hope that changes.

  57. Bos8 says:

    The Weber boarding and the Petry high stick were just two missed calls. They weren’t missed just ignored.

  58. "Frank The Dog" says:

    Look fellas that was a bloody good effort.
    Look, they had a 3 point spread last game, this was at home at the end of a long road trip minus Taylor with a porous goalie took them out the game.
    This team with Scrivens and Hall playing couolda shoulda woulda won this game.

    I believed Fasth was fragile going in, I don’t mean he gives up but that’s the second time I’ve seen him wither under intense pressure. My money’s on Scrivens as the #1, put in Fasth against the softer opponents.

    I think Chance may have actually overshadowed Nuge. I like Nuge growing up on this trip and taking ownership of his line.

    I do think Hall and Yak could be terrors on the same line with Perron and Purcell on the other line. Put Arco and Drai with either set of wings depending on who’s hot and who’s not. that would have to split the D and then load the #1 PP.

    Not depressed at this one, if they’d even started Scrivens they may have been able to pull it off.

    No I don’t hate Fasth, I do think he can be a really good backup. I see Ben as being more physically and psychologically able to handle the intense pressure of the WC teams.

    Kudos to Eakins for the turnaround from the 1st to the subsequent periods, and kudos to this team for sucking it up and getting back to work.

  59. []JUST[]KEEP[]CALM[]AND[]CORSI[]ON[] says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”: but Nikki Nikitin…I’m really not a fan.

    If the numbers are anywhere close to how he looked by eye, he’s due for some popcorn for the next game (at least).

    I’ll take Aulie any day of the week. Wait – what did I just say?

  60. G Money says:

    On a further note about goalies – there has been work that shows that fatigue is a bigger driver in goalie success than the so-called ‘hot hand’.

    But the idea is so ingrained that it would take an incredibly brave coach to strictly alternate goalies after one of them has a good game, even if that good game might arguably have been due to being rested but not rusty.

  61. Pouzar says:

    Man down 3-0 with that nightmare 1st period…I am with G on this…wonderful effort. Very encouraging sign.

  62. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Pouzar,

    He just looks so slow out there. A half step behind. I wonder if it’s the ankle. That gong show vs Boston aside, he just makes a lot of passes into people’s feet or when they are already covered or whatever. Hope it’s just early season rust.

  63. RexLibris says:

    Bling: Er, what are we blaming Eakins for?

    He took cream in his coffee instead of whitener. Screwed the whole team up before they even hit the ice. Man’s gotta go.

  64. Gret99zky says:

    frjohnk:

    I think the Draisaitl experiment is over

    I sincerely wish this was true.

    I like the kid but what is f****** point?

    Put him in a goddamn development league.

  65. stevezie says:

    G Money,

    I’m with you there.

    http://vimeo.com/17141172

    (Not slower though. Obviously)

  66. Pouzar says:

    “Frank The Dog”:
    Look fellas that was a bloody good effort.
    Look, they had a 3 point spread last game, this was at home at the end of a long road trip minus Taylor with a porous goalie took them out the game.
    This team with Scrivens and Hall playing couolda shoulda woulda won this game.

    I believed Fasth was fragile going in, I don’t mean he gives up but that’s the second time I’ve seen him wither under intense pressure. My money’s on Scrivens as the #1, put in Fasth against the softer opponents.

    I think Chance may have actually overshadowed Nuge. I like Nuge growing up on this trip and taking ownership of his line.

    I do think Hall and Yak could be terrors on the same linewith Perron and Purcell on the other line. Put Arco and Drai with either set of wings depending on who’s hot and who’s not. that would have to split the D and then load the #1 PP.

    Not depressed at this one, if they’d even started Scrivens they may have been able to pull it off.

    No I don’t hate Fasth, I do think he can be a really good backup. I see Ben as being more physically and psychologically able to handle the intense pressure of the WC teams.

    Kudos to Eakins for the turnaround from the 1st to the subsequent periods, and kudos to this team for sucking it up and getting back to work.

    All this.

  67. Lowetide says:

    Edmonton Oilers @EdmontonOilers · 4m 4 minutes ago

    “We weren’t ready (in the 1st) … We can’t have that happen after we win a couple games and then get ahead of ourselves.” @DP_57

  68. "Frank The Dog" says:

    This was a baptism by fire. Did Drai’s corgi’s faint?

  69. Bling says:

    Good effort out there.

    Scrivens with an excellent job out of the bullpen.

    Goaltending was all you could ask for on the night (.900+ save percentage).

    The Oilers need to find a way to score more goals.

    I felt that there were too many chances that didn’t result in shots on goal (Eberle’s dandy walk-around on Weber, Yaupov fanning on a glorious one time chance on the PP, Acro’s shot over the net on a pass from Nuge at the end of the game).

    Some of that is luck.

  70. PunjabiOil says:

    That’s hindsight. Half the commenters said the obvious decision was to go with the hot hand. If he starts Scrivens and they lose, Eakins takes shit for the bad decision too. (And there’s not guarantee Scrivens plays well in that terrible first period).

    I’ve had plenty of criticism for Eakins, but this one’s silly – picking between these two hot-and-cold starting goalies is voodoo.

    – My beef stems from acquiring Fasth in the first place. He has accomplished very little in his career aside from a 10 game hot streak to start his career which landed him this contract

    – Scrivens has been much better. Not sure why they aren’t giving him the crease and letting him run away with it.

    – Goaltending is costing us chance for playoffs. Plain and simple. Scrivens gets another 65 games, but if he doesn’t run away with it, the Oilers can ill afford to take a gamble next season.

  71. Hazwasted says:

    Play the first period as they played the last two and they probably win that game. Nice to see some pushback for a change.. They are getting it slowly.

    Nothing to blame Eakins for in that one. Give him a full lineup please McT! Not a good enough result but headed in the right direction!

    Go Oilers!

  72. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Scheduled loss last game on a road trip against a good team while missing Hall. Oilers are still a work in progress, and are in fact progressing. I don’t see anyone upset today other than, “I don’t like to see my team lose,” which is natural.

    Comments are really mellow.

    So, Frank, you’re preaching to the choir. No one is arguing with you.

    Hall-Arco-Eberle
    Perron-Nuge-Yak

    Run with it.

  73. G Money says:

    stevezie,

    Heh heh. Maybe the Oilers can hire that Director!

  74. Pouzar says:

    I would love to know where this D-corps ranks in SOG this year and the last 3 or 4. I will stop complaining about it if it’s not bottom third.

  75. PunjabiOil says:

    what are we blaming Eakins for?

    For perpetually not icing best lineup.

    Scrivens needs to be starting 55-60 games, and Marincin should be there every night.

    He hasn’t been given a full team from MacT, but he has also been shooting himself in the foot with some of his lineup decisions.

  76. RexLibris says:

    Normally we point to possession numbers and say “play that game 60 times and they win 40 of them”, and then the Oilers fail to play that style consistently.

    Tonight, I would argue it feels the same way; that if the Oilers were to play that tenaciously I think they’d win more than lose.

    By the numbers they were slaughtered, 60/40 by Corsi and that was after the pushback periods. To an extent that I don’t recall seeing since looking at the Corsi events. By eye, they fought very hard and I was surprised and honestly impressed (even as a fan) at how hard the Eberle-Nugent-Hopkins-Pouliot line made Weber and Josi work.

    To bring up another phantom hockey cliche, the mental toughness of the team to go down by 3-0 in the first and not let in another goal but instead fight back was something that has been lacking somewhat in seasons’ past.

    There are positives to be taken from this game that are different in type but not in importance than from other losses.

    One more step taken. Let’s hope they can replicate it.

  77. G Money says:

    PunjabiOil,

    Scrivens has probably cost the Oilers at least two, maybe more, games with boneheaded gaffes handling the puck. He blew up a couple of games and still went out and made the same doofus plays.

    Not such an easy decision.

    Acquiring Fasth was MacT’s decision, not Eakins, no?

  78. Bling says:

    PunjabiOil,

    But how is any of that Eakins’ fault?

  79. LostBoy says:

    After that first, I didn’t think they had an answer. Amazingly, they had an answer. Didn’t make it all the way back, but not for want of trying.

    It could still all slide back into hell, but so far I’ll take this team.

    But C has to get solved. Leon Draisaitl is just not being well served. For God’s sake, he’s barely 19. It’s not helping anyone rushing him like this. The market is supposed to start shaking loose a bit around US Thanksgiving (2 weeks). Get a functional NHL C to play between Purcell and Pouliot once Hall gets back. Sending Draisaitl away now is awkward, but only because of the idiocy of pre-ordaining him a roster position. He should be dominating somewhere, not skating on eggshells in the NHL.

    My best guess is it’s not going to happen. Draisaitl is quality enough that I’ll bet he survives the treatment and flourishes in a year or two. Any real hopes for this season, though, won’t.

  80. Bos8 says:

    Both goalies are suspect at times. Part of the growing pains.

    Piling on, on one of them is not optimal. They are what they are. Seventeen shots in a period strikes me as a team faux.

  81. Gordies Elbow says:

    PunjabiOil,

    While you didn’t like the acquisition of Fasth, it’s hard not to point out the forwards (or in this case, forward) and defensemen (or in this case, defenseman) who clearly didn’t take their marks, leading to the open shots.

    The best goalies in their prime would have been left out to dry on the goals tonight.

    I’d focus on the centre who can’t mark his man on the play, and the defender who chose to skate behind the net on the goal.

  82. Bos8 says:

    What about that Bello Arco, Wow. The little jobber is killing it. Totally amazing.

  83. RexLibris says:

    Oilers are currently sitting 8th in Corsi% with 51.9%.

    8th by Fenwick with 51.2%

    11th by Fenclose with 51.8%

    These are all up arrows in stark contrast to last year.

    Process says things are heading north. Points follow. Consistency right now is key.

  84. Bling says:

    LT has brought it up already, but holy garbage get another centre and send Drai to junior!

    You don’t even have to make a trade — call up Lander and give him the candy minutes.

    Jeepers.

  85. gcw_rocks says:

    This is why we should not get excited about a few wins against the east. The Oilers play in the west and clearly suck in comparison to real hockey teams.

    They got out shot in the second and barely out shot the Preds in the third. Can’t even get score effects.

  86. Bos8 says:

    RexLibris:
    Oilers are currently sitting 8th in Corsi% with 51.9%.

    8th by Fenwick with 51.2%

    11th by Fenclose with 51.8%

    These are all up arrows in stark contrast to last year.

    Process says things are heading north. Points follow. Consistency right now is key.

    all of the above

    Yep, yep yep.

  87. gcw_rocks says:

    RexLibris:
    Oilers are currently sitting 8th in Corsi% with 51.9%.

    8th by Fenwick with 51.2%

    11th by Fenclose with 51.8%

    These are all up arrows in stark contrast to last year.

    Process says things are heading north. Points follow. Consistency right now is key.

    Let’s see after they play the west a little more often.

  88. RexLibris says:

    Bos8:
    What about that Bello Arco, Wow.The little jobber is killing it.Totally amazing.

    If we bastardize some Italian and Latin then Arco Bello would mean Bow War. In Italian it approximately translates to beautiful bow, provided you put a space between the two.

  89. Bling says:

    PunjabiOil:
    what are we blaming Eakins for?

    For perpetually not icing best lineup.

    Scrivens needs to be starting 55-60 games, and Marincin should be there every night.

    He hasn’t been given a full team from MacT, but he has also been shooting himself in the foot with some of his lineup decisions.

    I agree, but Marincin has struggled a bit lately.

    He’s not a finished product, and watching from up top and getting some workouts in can benefit him.

    We’ll see him next game.

  90. RexLibris says:

    gcw_rocks,

    Agreed. Up arrows thus far, and consistency.

    So far so good. Do the cars come off the track now or can they keep showing positive signs?

    We’ll wait and see, but I’m pleased with what I’m seeing in the background to date.

  91. Bos8 says:

    Drai is doing just fine.

    He didn’t know how to handle the full court press. Eakins sheltered him. It’s a process. Today or tomorrow he’ll have to deal with the situation. Better now.

  92. RexLibris says:

    The one area of traditional stats that concerns me with this team is the goal differential. Granted, a lot of that comes from the LA/ARZ games, but nevertheless, that will have to improve markedly.

    Chicago sits 17th overall in the league right now, behind Winnipeg, Calgary, and Ottawa to name a few.

    If things continue to go this way after the 25 game mark I’m going to wonder if this entire season wasn’t born under a bad moon.

  93. gcw_rocks says:

    This is a terrible time to be an Edmonton Oilers fan. (Clears throat). THIS is an terrible time to be an Edmonton Oilers fan. Now that I have your attention, allow me to state my case.

    1. Can’t win a game in their conference. Can’t move to the east.
    2. General manager and owner okay with “controlled rebuild”, which is a polite way of saying, “planned to lose”
    3. Ridiculous blind spot at centre
    4. Andrew Ference
    5. Nikitin
    6. Schultz when the puck is in the Oilers end
    7. Gazdic recalled instead of waived
    8. Can’t get stable goaltending
    9. Marincin and Klefbom can’t get easy minutes because Schultz, Nikitin and Ference need them
    10. Keith Aullie

  94. []JUST[]KEEP[]CALM[]AND[]CORSI[]ON[] says:

    RexLibris: If we bastardize some Italian and Latin then Arco Bello would mean Bow War.

    But really, pizzicato fits him better than arco, because he’s a plucky little m-f’er! Another step removed, if we then use Bella, we get Plucky Beautiful.

    When does my artistic license expire?

  95. Bos8 says:

    I was very impressed with the puck movement in the PP where Yak, fanned on his shot. That looked extremely good to me. It was throwing the Nashville D off and that’s one of the top D in the league.

  96. Bling says:

    Bos8:
    I was very impressed with the puck movement in the PP where Yak, fanned on his shot.That looked extremely good to me.It was throwing the Nashville D off and that’s one of the top D in the league.

    This.

    Extremely crisp puck movement.

    There’s all this emphasis on keeping it simple, shot generation, etc.

    How about opening up shooting lanes?

    Only way to do that is to move the puck around with a lot of zip.

  97. Bos8 says:

    RexLibris: If we bastardize some Italian and Latin then Arco Bello would mean Bow War. In Italian it approximately translates to beautiful bow, provided you put a space between the two.

    Okay, going off at Knight to KB3. Arco that was bello, take a bow.

  98. flyfish1168 says:

    Perron step on Yak in the corner. He had to get a few stitches on his arm

    http://oilersnation.com/2014/11/11/gdb-16-0-wrap-up-oilers-predators

    Hope this doesn’t end up infected

  99. G Money says:

    Scott Cullen retweet LOLZ:

    RT @cotsonika: Avs losing again. Patrick Roy might have to give back that Jack Adams after testing positive for PDO.

  100. RexLibris says:

    G Money:
    Scott Cullen retweet LOLZ:

    RT @cotsonika: Avs losing again. Patrick Roy might have to give back that Jack Adams after testing positive for PDO.

    I read this and heard “Oooovertime Winner!” in my head.

  101. RexLibris says:

    gcw_rocks:
    This is a terrible time to be an Edmonton Oilersfan. (Clears throat). THIS is an terrible time to be an Edmonton Oilers fan. Now that I have your attention, allow me to state my case.

    1. Can’t win a game in their conference. Can’t move to the east.
    2. General manager and owner okay with “controlled rebuild”, which is a polite way of saying, “planned to lose”
    3. Ridiculous blind spot at centre
    4. Andrew Ference
    5. Nikitin
    6. Schultz when the puck is in the Oilers end
    7. Gazdic recalled instead of waived
    8. Can’t get stable goaltending
    9. Marincin and Klefbom can’t get easy minutes because Schultz, Nikitin and Ference need them
    10. Keith Aullie

    Gazdic has to be recalled before he can be waived. Let’s wait on this and see what happens. I’m already on record with my guess about the most likely sequence of events based on team history, but we have to give them the chance to make the mistake before we lambaste them for it.

    The same applies to how they respond to Nikitin. It isn’t like there is a paucity of LD available right now, so if they sit him and put in Marincin or Klefbom then good for them. If not, we can give them both barrels for it.

    Not that they’ll care what we say. 🙂

  102. Bos8 says:

    Just glanced at another site. Acro is getting trashed. Hard to take seriously when you’re four letter challenged.

  103. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Oilers’ current pace 205 goals for, 276 against.

    LT had 226 for with the following in the RE series:
    “I am betting:
    The No. 1 line explodes for more than 75 goals
    The Oilers cobble together a 2line that scores more than 50 goals
    The Oilers manage a third line that posts over 30 goals
    The defense scores at about last season’s levels
    The power play is a big part of the +27 GF
    The Oilers employ 11 rookie skaters, but only Leon Draisaitl has any offensive impact.”

    Only Hall is on pace for 30 goals, but Nuge may just get there if he keeps it up. Eberle is off the pace (probably hampered by that injury). But overall, the 2ndary scoring hasn’t been there…yet. Still early. We’re 19.5% of the way through the season, though, so it’s about time we start looking more closely.

  104. RexLibris says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”,

    I’m getting set to run an update on my RE for the Flames, looking at sh%, sv%, ppg and the like to see whether they are tracking ahead or behind the estimate.

    I’m expecting there will be some notable overachievers. 😉

  105. Snowman says:

    Bos8:
    Drai is doing just fine.

    He didn’t know how to handle the full court press.Eakins sheltered him.It’s a process.Today or tomorrow he’ll have to deal with the situation.Better now.

    There is a difference between being fine and needing sheltering and not contributing and not getting enough time to develop. He hasn’t had a “good” game where he was a threat and contributed while playing steady minutes in a long time by my eye. He is less and less able to make plays as the season picks up. We haven’t even played a handful of games against top teams. He’s having a tough time keeping his head above water and the seas are only getting tougher and rougher from here on out.

    Nothing against Draisatl but he’s not what this team needs and he doesn’t need what this team is giving him.

  106. Woodguy says:

    G Money:
    I know it’s fashionable to make fun of anyone who brings up things like ‘intensity’ and ‘effort’, but this period is a perfect example of what the Oilers often seem to be missing.

    If they could bring this kind of effort consistently from the first shift, instead of waiting to feel their way into the game and seemingly figure out if they can mail one in or not, they would NOT be a punching bag for the West.

    Its only fashionable to make fun of intensity and effort when its given as reasons teams with 1030+ PDOs are winning games.

    See COL last year
    See CAL this year
    See MIN in 11/12
    See EDM in 11/12
    See etc, etc, etc,

  107. RexLibris says:

    Oilers sitting 4th overall right now, tied with Colorado, Arizona and Carolina.

    I see Edmonton and Carolina improving once the former gets results that in line with the underlying numbers and the latter gets healthy.

    Colorado may or may not keep pace and Arizona ought to improve based on previous seasons, but maybe Dubnyk and Gagner are reclamation projects even Tippett’s ken.

    It seems there will be something of a Tier 3 race in the standings this season where a collection of teams are all leapfrogging each other from 28th overall to 22nd.

  108. digdeepnbleedblue says:

    Some drunken (maybe stoned too) post-game thoughts:

    Beer should be a food group. Seriously, there’s cereals and water. Read somewhere monks used to fast for weeks and only drink beer. Made it hearty. ….though, where I come from we just call it a drunk. I digress….

    That 1st period was shat. Wow. At first I was thinking that Nash was a freakin’ awesome team. Then it donned on me. These guys are playing like a bunch of panties. And this has been the problem for years. Is it also strategy? Yup, that too. Personnel? Yup, yup. Placement of personnel? Can’t argue with that as well. But, after watching them pick up in the 2nd and more so in the 3rd it’s pretty clear that effort is the biggest problem this team faces.

    They’re beating themselves by coming out and playing panty ass hockey. And, that’s what forecheck means. Same with hitting. Driving the net for rebounds. Attacking the puck carrier. Or you can just calling getting dirty. However you term it it’s the same thing. A lack of want and/or desire.

    This is why I harp on Eberle. Fucking cat has so much talent but he plays this passive, I don’t give a shit about anyone but myself, hockey. In fairness, I’ve seen him do better lately. And that’s good ’cause if this team wants to win cats like this need to own it.

    Still believe he shouldn’t have a letter until he does own it. There are other’s that lead by example and that’s what a letter is about. It’s not about who can argue with one of those idiots with a stripped shirt…

    For those that hate on Coach here’s a little something I heard the other day. I paraphrase: “We’re just doing what the coaches want. And, the coaches have been coaching all four lines the same way.” – Hendricks on why they’re doing good thangs.

    That about says it all.

    Now I am sure you can quantify all this with stats. Corsi, fenwick and all the rest, but you don’t really need a stat to tell you if you play a passive, panty style type of hockey you’re going to lose more often than not. That can be SEEN. Don’t take a mathematician….

    And, honestly, I don’t hate the stats. What I dislike is people trying to look like smart hockey people by throwing out numbers to win an argument. It’s Hockey, not a fucking NASA assignment.

    To me the numbers can’t lead you to change to a system that will win, but is sure as fuck can show you that your system IS working. And regardless of what system you have the first thing you need is for the individuals to come to the rink and play with a 100% effort for a full 60. Or 65 and possible several more minutes if it goes to a shootout…. Whatever.

  109. Bos8 says:

    Snowman: There is a difference between being fine and needing sheltering and not contributing and not getting enough time to develop. He hasn’t had a “good” game where he was a threat and contributed while playing steady minutes in a long time by my eye. He is less and less able to make plays as the season picks up. We haven’t even played a handful of games against top teams. He’s having a tough time keeping his head above water and the seas are only getting tougher and rougher from here on out.

    I would agree with you if there was a League that he could develop in. The options are Junior and Eur

    Nothing against Draisatl but he’s not what this team needs and he doesn’t need what this team is giving him.

    I would agree with you if there was a League that he could develop in. The options are Junior and Europe. Not great optiions. I would lean to the Brodziak solution and rotate them in and out of the lineup at that time.

    The Oilers felt that he was advancing past the ten game status. Nothing is written in stone
    I would suggest that Drai is being played exactly right, as in sheltered minutes with supportive wingers. If he shows signs of being overwhelmed then some other route is available. I’m not that gruntled with the MM, Klef situation either. Things will come to pass.

  110. Snowman says:

    Bos8,

    My point is that he is not developing anymore in this league. He’s not able to work on things. He’s got his hands full just treading water. Europe or Junior would let him work on things and develop. Treading water is no way to start a career. Just ask Anton Lander. 16 games in and 4 points without having played against Chicago, Anaheim or Pittsburgh and only 1 game against LA. He’s had easy competition relatively and is not producing. Its just not good all around. He needs the first available ticket out of town IMHO.

    I don’t have much problem with Klef/MM. MM isn’t playing that well and Klef is still learning the game. I’m fine with bringing them up and sending them down and sitting them as needed. Development isn’t a straight line. And patience is key. Good things come to those who wait.

  111. Hammers says:

    Main problem isn’t who plays with Hall or RNH or any other forward . Face it a blind man could send out forwards ( no disrespect to the blind ) Most everyone said preseason Eakins has so many forward options . He still does even without the Experienced center and without Hall although we are better with Hall . Face it LT and everyone else , our goalies are hot & Cold and our “D” isn’t much better . Fayne was the big signing and has got an average of under 15 minutes so WHY ??? . Ramsay was supposed to fix the PP and it was better under Krueger when we played only the west . PK has been just OK . The “D” is a disaster waiting to happen every game .

  112. Hammers says:

    Anybody here the Barons score ?

  113. Walter Sobchak says:

    Stats question again. (Still learning)

    IF the Oilers Corsi is above the 50% it’s a good thing? What happens when you check that same Corsi against WC teams?

    I’m just curious because watching this game it looked like with about 8 minutes left in the second, the Predators stopped sending 5 guys up to 2-1-2 system and started boxing out most of the Oilers shots, which then are coming from the perimeter.

    Also, how do really take into account the “true numbers” (stats) when the Oilers really have only played middling teams? Middle of the pack teams?

    I guess what I’m asking is how do we get an accurate number or a truer Corsi number when the Oilers have only played a couple top teams?

    These Corsi numbers have to be inflated?

  114. Kmart99 says:

    Walter Sobchak:
    Stats question again. (Still learning)

    IF the Oilers Corsi is above the 50% it’s a good thing? Yes
    What happens when you check that same Corsi against WC teams? Oilers’ CF against WC teams is likely inflated because of the CGY game, but will even out.

    I’m just curious because watching this game it looked like with about 8 minutes left in the second, the Predators stopped sending 5 guys up to2-1-2 system and started boxing out most of the Oilers shots, which then are coming from the perimeter. Score Effects. Lots of Teams do this when they have a lead. That’s why CorsiCLOSE is more valuable. And CF isn’t as valuable when you’re chasing a deficit of 2 or more goals during the first two periods. Or 1 or more goals in the third.

    Also, how do really take into account the “true numbers” (stats) when the Oilers really have only played middling teams? Middle of the pack teams? I’m not sure I consider, LAK, VAN, NYR, NSH, MTL, BOS AND TBL middle of the pack teams.

    I guess what I’m asking is how do we get an accurate number or a truer Corsi number when the Oilers have only played a couple top teams? … already answered.

    These Corsi numbers have to be inflated? The numbers could be inflated. We are only dealing with 15 games here. At the 30 game mark, either the record will swing in the direction of the shot diff, or the shot diff will swing in the direction of the record.

  115. Lowetide says:

    Hammers:
    Anybody here the Barons score ?

    3-2 SO loss. BRandon Davidson and Brad Hunt 2 assists, goals from Kessy and Acton. Lots of saves by Bachman.

  116. stevezie says:

    digdeepnbleedblue,

    I really enjoyed this.

  117. gcw_rocks says:

    RexLibris: Gazdic has to be recalled before he can be waived. Let’s wait on this and see what happens. I’m already on record with my guess about the most likely sequence of events based on team history, but we have to give them the chance to make the mistake before we lambaste them for it.

    The same applies to how they respond to Nikitin. It isn’t like there is a paucity of LD available right now, so if they sit him and put in Marincin or Klefbom then good for them. If not, we can give them both barrels for it.

    Not that they’ll care what we say.

    On Gazdic, I hear you, but they could have waived him instead of sending him on a conditioning stint, could they not?

  118. Dicky94 says:

    Yes the Nikitin experiment must end. He is not getting any better and it was obviously a terrible mistake made by Howson and the oilers. Anton Belov was much better yet they sat him at times last year. Do the same with Nikitin. The center position is not the issue anymore. We need defensemen.

  119. Pouzar says:

    digdeepnbleedblue:

    This is why I harp on Eberle. Fucking cat has so much talent but he plays this passive, I don’t give a shit about anyone but myself, hockey.

    Couldn’t agree more.

  120. Kmart99 says:

    Not sure how much of the final two frames were score effects, but the fact that the Oil were able to play that well against a strong NSH team for 30-40mins makes it fairly clear that consistency is the missing ingredient. So often I’m used to score effects not applying to this team. I specifically remember the 4-0 Detroit loss last season where the oil just rolled over and died after puck drop and never woke up. If this team can look at last night’s third period and then find a way to bring that effort for at least 50 of the remaining games, the 80pt mark is still totally achievable.

  121. RexLibris says:

    gcw_rocks: On Gazdic,I hear you,but they could have waived him instead of sending him on a conditioning stint,could they not?

    You cannot waive an injured player, it falls into the bona fides of contract negotiations.

    He has to either play in the NHL or be assigned on a conditioning loan for not more than 2 weeks or the prerogative of the commissioner (at least under the old CBA, assuming this was carried over) while receiving an NHL salary and being listed on the NHL roster – the last point explains the paper shuffle with Marincin last week in bringing up Pakarinen.

    Once he’s been recalled they can put him back on waivers and he would have to clear, as opposed to had he been recalled without a conditioning loan where a played need only clear waivers once every 30 days, the period between which they are exempt.

    This is what I’ve cobbled together from readings and interpretations posted here and elsewhere.

    I could be wrong on some of the details, but that is my understanding thus far.

    That the Oilers recalled Pakarinen gives me some hope that they won’t decide to immediately replace one of Joensuu or Hendricks with Gazdic barring injury to the former two.

    However, it is very likely that they’ll put him into the lineup at some point soon as a measure of “seeing how he’s playing and helping to build up his confidence” after his shoulder surgery.

    For the record, I noticed a big improvement in his general ability to play the game at this level last year, however it was still relatively one-dimensional and he does not improve the play of his linemates in terms of actual puck-play.

  122. gcw_rocks says:

    RexLibris: You cannot waive an injured player, it falls into the bona fides of contract negotiations.

    He has to either play in the NHL or be assigned on a conditioning loan for not more than 2 weeks or the prerogative of the commissioner (at least under the old CBA, assuming this was carried over) while receiving an NHL salary and being listed on the NHL roster – the last point explains the paper shuffle with Marincin last week in bringing up Pakarinen.

    Once he’s been recalled they can put him back on waivers and he would have to clear, as opposed to had he been recalled without a conditioning loan where a played need only clear waivers once every 30 days, the period between which they are exempt.

    This is what I’ve cobbled together from readings and interpretations posted here and elsewhere.

    I could be wrong on some of the details, but that is my understanding thus far.

    That the Oilers recalled Pakarinen gives me some hope that they won’t decide to immediately replace one of Joensuu or Hendricks with Gazdic barring injury to the former two.

    However, it is very likely that they’ll put him into the lineup at some point soon as a measure of “seeing how he’s playing and helping to build up his confidence” after his shoulder surgery.

    For the record, I noticed a big improvement in his general ability to play the game at this level last year, however it was still relatively one-dimensional and he does not improve the play of his linemates in terms of actual puck-play.

    When they send him for conditioning, my understanding is he no longer considered injured. All they had to do was not send him to OKC, activate him, and waive him.

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