COYOTES AT OILERS G18 2014-15

Based on the verbal from yesterday, there’s a chance Taylor Hall plays tonight. Taylor Hall on one small toe is better than most things we’ve seen in an Oilers uniform this century, so bring it on!!!

  • Taylor Hall: “There’s not too much pain anymore. The pain dissolved after a couple of days. It’s more of just strength and being able to rely on it. Like I said, [today] was another good day and I want to keep going.”

lane1

THE COVER PHOTO IS BACK!

I want to express my sincere thanks to Robert Andruchow (Owner, Designer) and Bryan Ly (web developer) of  Big Pixel Creative. After my ‘cover photo’ issue awhile ago, Robert extended an offer to help with the problem and with Bryan identified and fixed it. Sincere thanks.

eakins smiling

  • Dallas Eakins on things that are vital to being an NHL coach: “You need an extremely patient wife. Lots of times my wife’s talking to me and I’m thinking about where I’m going to put Taylor Hall in the lineup.” Source

It’s an interesting read, there’s a quote from Eberle in it that’s worth noting as well. The thing about Eakins is that he HAS grown this season, and I’d suggest his deployment of the forwards is Item 1 on the list. He is still trying to figure out the blue, but part of that (imo) is due to injury (Petry), adjustment (Fayne) and that damnable thing about prospects not developing in a straight line (Marincin). There’s a category name for Nikitin, but it’s a bad word, in bold, that is not spoken in mixed company.

LINES

If Hall is back, I think there’s a chance this team can begin to ice two legit scoring lines as the season rolls. Now, they are badly in need of a legit center for the 2line, but even with the clay available we can discuss the idea. Here’s my ideal lineup based on what’s idling in the driveway.

  • Hall—Arcobello—Perron
  • Pouliot—Nuge—Eberle
  • Purcell—Leon—Yakupov
  • Hendricks—Gordon—Joensuu

I put Hall’s line first but don’t go crazy it’s just a list and I don’t hate Nuge. The one item I’m unsure of is Yakupov, because he’s about to go off and maybe playing with Hall tips the scales. If you place Yak on Hall’s line, I worry about two things: the defensive ability of the 1line and the speed of the 3line. I do think we can begin to talk about Yakupov eventually passing Eberle and Perron, though. He’s miles better now than a year ago, just miles. If you watch Yakupov without the puck, I think it’s safe to say he’s showing more effort (if not getting better results) than Eberle, so all that is left is experience and learning more about positioning. We’re on our way, thank you Edmonton Oilers for your patience!

coyotes oilers

I think the big item for Edmonton these days is the closing of the SF-SA gap after ages and ages of horrible. Now, they could draw in Luke Gazdic tonight and go for a two week swim, but I do think the idea is to turn north this season. For me, not adding a veteran center is kind of hedging the bet—”we’ll go with what we have and if we’re out of McDavid range then we’ll stay the course”—but most of the cannons are going in the right direction these days. And the Gazdic sit is an example of it.

BLUE BLUE WINDOWS BEHIND THE STARS

  • Ference—Petry

We have our first true pairing of the year. It’s bad news in a way—that’s the rookie rocking chair—but as long as the Corgi’s adore them it matters not (until injuries arrive, then these kids need to play).

  • Nikitin—Fayne

I don’t remember the last time a defenseman for the Edmonton Oilers was truly this bad. I mean, just incredibly bad. WOW. Scott Howson is by reputation a smart guy, but that’s  a ten-Gravol move if I’ve ever seen one. I imagine he walks softly past MacT’s office most mornings after a game. Incredible. I do like Fayne, he appears to be as advertised and should have good numbers if they don’t tie an anvil to him every night.

  • Aulie—Schultz

Jason Strudwick was on the Lowdown this week, and we talked about Aulie. Struds suggested that, as a player, you love it when the coach uses you in exactly the right spot for your skills. At that time, Aulie was playing with Fayne and having a good time of it. However, Dallas Eakins continuing efforts to find a miracle cure for Justin Schultz has Aulie’s number (apparently) up tonight, so it’s a tough gig for the big man.

THIS TEAM, THIS TIME

I believe in a lot of this team. Taylor Hall racing down the wing, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins stopping up, finding the trailer, Eberle in close, Yak’s future, Perron’s brain, Pouliot’s tool kit, that golden 4line. I believe in Petry, the kids, Fayne’s on the rise.

They have to fix center, ladies, and one of these goalers must go on a .940 run soon. It don’t mean a thing if it ain’t got that swing, and that means taking care of your own end.

Hurry Cody Eakin. We need you. And let’s find Leon a good spot somewhere, so we don’t waste an entire season on a damned fine prospect. Right?

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286 Responses to "COYOTES AT OILERS G18 2014-15"

« Older Comments
  1. oliveoilers says:

    MacT had the MacBlender, Eakins has the Purcell double-shift. Gotta have your go to moves!

  2. oliveoilers says:

    Oilers all out to win this!

  3. oliveoilers says:

    Some inverse score effects going on.

  4. Marcus Oilerius says:

    Gordon 17 of 19.

    89%.

    Unbelievable.

  5. flyfish1168 says:

    “Frank The Dog”:
    It’s painful seeing DD with a better save % than our goalies.

    Not surprised. New baby new coach and to much Schultz. Just need new start

  6. SK Oiler Fan says:

    Rick ‘ s magic box will be empty for the oiler offense tonight. Classic Tippet shutdown hockey has put the crowd to sleep

  7. Rebilled says:

    DD working on his 2nd shutout straight, beating the Canucks last night.

    Oilers.

  8. godot10 says:

    Marcus Oilerius:
    Gordon 17 of 19.

    89%.

    Unbelievable.

    So why don’t you bring up Lander for the 4th line role between Hendricks and Joensuu, and use Gordon’s faceoff proficiency offensively, by playing him between Hall and Yakupov, and giving him O-zone draws instead of D-zone draws?

    Bad teams should use their strengths offensively, not defensively.

  9. Ice Sage says:

    Predicting Gagner with the empty netter

    Has this organization no pride?

  10. oliveoilers says:

    Marcus Oilerius:
    Gordon 17 of 19.

    89%.

    Unbelievable.

    Bollox. I’d trade 39% of that for a meaningful play after the Faceoff. I’m happy for him on a personal level.

  11. "Frank The Dog" says:

    goodnight.

  12. Pouzar says:

    Good night all.

  13. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Well, that was all too predictable, unfortunately.

    Edit- Says something that a 2 goal lead tonight looks so insurmountable but I’m not sure the Oilers have had a scoring chance since the 2nd? Plenty of shots but no legit scoring chances by eye.

  14. SK Oiler Fan says:

    Fk Nikitin is useless. He should not play another game but he will

  15. Dicky94 says:

    Enough already.

  16. Captain's Log says:

    Ugh that’s on Yak. I wonder if it’s a team philosophy to loosely check the guy in the slot?

    Also yet another goal after the Oilers fail to clear after getting control in their own zone.

  17. Ray says:

    godot10: So why don’t you bring up Lander for the 4th line role between Hendricks and Joensuu, and use Gordon’s faceoff proficiency offensively, by playing him between Hall and Yakupov, and giving him O-zone draws instead of D-zone draws?

    Bad teams should use their strengths offensively, not defensively.

    This! yes, love this idea!

  18. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    At last a PP goal, and it was movement that caused it. They look so much better when they move more.

  19. Kitchener says:

    4

  20. Lowetide says:

    Hall’s 99th goal, right?

  21. Ray says:

    #scrivensdown

  22. oliveoilers says:

    It wouldn’t be an Oilers game without an ineffectual comeback.

  23. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Man, that’s the side of Pouliot I was warning you about. Just no need for it at this point in the game.

  24. oliveoilers says:

    Well done Pouliot!

  25. Rebilled says:

    DD’s shutout not looking good. Score again.

  26. Dicky94 says:

    More Boyd Gordon’s please!!!

  27. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Like, you just scored, 5:30 left, why take that penalty?

  28. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    where was this urgency earlier in the game?

  29. Captain's Log says:

    Last two minutes of the game and Eakins thinks Ference is going to be the defender that helps us get the tie?

    What the fuck is he thinking? Ference can’t even make a basic pass in the neutral zone….

  30. godot10 says:

    Dave Tippett, turning lemons into lemonade for over a decade, and counting.

    Dallas Eakins, turning lemonade into lemons for 101 games, and counting.

  31. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Well, the Oilers turned it up late, but too little, too late. They have the ability, clearly, but still lack consistency. Hope they really do turn north soon. It’ll be a shame if they’re out of it before December again.

  32. Ice Sage says:

    Oh boy.

    Where are the silver linings now?

    This is a horrid hockey team, nurtured by a poor organization. May 60$ per barrel oil bring some value to this situation… Edmonton, you deserve better

  33. Dicky94 says:

    Good for Dubnyk. Shows you what a good goaltending coach can do for a player.

  34. Captain's Log says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”,

    Don’t be silly they are out of it already sadly.

  35. oliveoilers says:

    This team is in danger of writing it’s own narrative. No wins against the west, good against the east, always goes behind but rallies for nearly a comeback. Not bad numbers, promises of ‘turning north’. Maybe we have turned north. Anybody check the map to see if it’s even the right direction?

  36. RexLibris says:

    Oilers firmly in 27th place, two points back of 26th and one point ahead of 28th.

    When’s that draft primer coming out, LT?

  37. RexLibris says:

    oliveoilers:
    This team is in danger of writing it’s own narrative.No wins against the west, good against the east, always goes behind but rallies for nearly a comeback.Not bad numbers, promises of ‘turning north’.Maybe we have turned north.Anybody check the map to see if it’s even the right direction?

    Sadly I think the Oilers turning North is a Franklin Expedition joke waiting to happen.

  38. LMHF#1 says:

    Captain’s Log:
    Last two minutes of the game and Eakins thinks Ference is going to be the defender that helps us get the tie?

    What the fuck is he thinking? Ference can’t even make a basic pass in the neutral zone….

    He’s going to FITNESS!!! the puck into the net. Duh!

  39. oliveoilers says:

    Ice Sage:
    Oh boy.

    Where are the silver linings now?

    This is a horrid hockey team, nurtured by a poor organization.May 60$ per barrel oil bring some value to this situation… Edmonton, you deserve better

    No, we were assured that the stats liked the signings of the summer. So, suddenly they’re bad players? They just look lost out there. It’s only the skill of some of our players that are skewing the stats into something resembling a hockey team with potential. Through squinted eyes. In the fog. Two miles away.

  40. geowal says:

    Here’s the plan: trade scrivens to Phoenix, have Sean Burke do his magic for a month, then trade back for him. Then do so with Fasth. Repeat on a regular cycle as the effects wear off.

  41. flyfish1168 says:

    flames beat Yotes because they created way more chaos in front of the net. flames forwards engaged Yotes defense and made it hard on Smith to see. We have way to many shots that were out of the kill zone.

    Our PP has muffin shots

  42. Numenius says:

    godot10: Dave Tippett, turning lemons into lemonade for over a decade, and counting.

    Dallas Eakins, turning lemonade into lemons for 101 games, and counting.

    I’m more and more afraid this is true.

  43. Rebilled says:

    Well this is a rough patch. Oh well, sunny days to come¡

  44. oliveoilers says:

    I was completing an assignment, so listened to the first two periods on the radio. I think the Oilers pay for the broadcast. It seemed odd to me that the commentator kept mentioning that the arena is ‘sold out’ and “another capacity crowd.” over and over. Smug git. I’m not into conspiracy theories, but even this had me reaching for the tin-foil. Kind of “you know we’re crap. We know we’re crap. But which one of us PAYS to watch? We’ll see you next game.” And the bastards are right.

  45. oliveoilers says:

    Rebilled:
    Well this is a rough patch. Oh well, sunny days to come¡

    Turning north!

  46. Rebilled says:

    oliveoilers,

    By the way, this orange oil drop acid is fantastic. The losses look like beachballs.

  47. godot10 says:

    Ralph Krueger vs. Dallas Eakins

    Hall vs. Taylor Hall 2 years close rto his prime
    Nugent-Hopkins vs Nugent-Hopkings 2 years closer to his prime
    Eberle vs Eberle two years closer to his prime
    Yakupov (rookie) vs. Yakupov 2 years older
    Schultz (rookie) vs Schultz 2 years older
    Petry vs. Petry

    Horcoff vs Gordon
    Hemsky vs. Perron
    Gagner vs. Arcobello
    Belanger vs. Draisaitl

    Smyth vs. Pouliot
    Jones vs. Purcell
    Petrell vs. Hendricks
    Paajarvi vs. Joensuu

    Smid vs. Ference
    NSchutz vs. Nikitin
    Potter vs. Fayne
    Whitney vs. Marincin

    Dubnyk and Khabibulin vs Scrivens and Fasth.

    -9 goal differential and 45 points in a 48 game all Western conference schedule

    vs.

    -20 goal differential (I think) and no wins against the Western Conference in 8 games. (1 point in 8 games)

    And Krueger was an awful coach.

  48. Hammers says:

    LT when are you going to write about the fans . Any Oiler ticket holder or fan is in this boat bound for nowhere and when they get there they will sail back and do it all over again . We go around in circles with an owner of the ship Katz who hires a crew of misguided souls who truly believe they are doing the right thing because in the far distant past they won the holly grail . Meanwhile us fans suffer buying tickets , t .v. packages , shirts and whatever else they ask of us .Once The City of Champions and now The City of Chumps . We are all misguided fools .

  49. []JUST[]KEEP[]CALM[]AND[]CORSI[]ON[] says:

    Rebilled:
    oliveoilers,

    By the way, this orange oil drop acid is fantastic. The losses look like beachballs.

    I was contemplating an ayahuasca/DMT combo, but OOD sounds good too.

  50. Ice Sage says:

    oliveoilers,

    Agreed.

    Moneypuck strategies can only be effective in the fertile ground of a quality organization with a solid hockey philosophy and experts in place in the key positions. To wit, some questions:

    – why are the Oiler goalies so sh!tty once they’ve spent a summer with the org?
    – why can’t the Oilers get to the ‘kill zone’ to shoot?
    – why did Smid say that Calgary practices were ‘hard’ after being traded?
    – why isn’t the PP better with the high-end talent on this team?
    – where’s this team’s killer instinct? Spotting other teams goals, no blowouts?

    I once fantasized that the Oiler braintrust were deftly tanking (eg. hiring Pat Quinn, etc) but now I see that they really are that out of their depth.

    I wonder at what point this situation starts costing Katz business (not just decreased Oilers-based revenues) due to his association with such a defective product.

    #end rant

  51. Lowetide says:

    Hammers:
    LT when are you going to write about the fans . Any Oiler ticket holder or fan is in this boat bound for nowhere and when they get there they will sail back and do it all over again . We go around in circles with an owner of the ship Katz who hires a crew of misguided souls who truly believe they are doing the right thingbecause in the far distant past they won the holly grail . Meanwhile us fans suffer buying tickets , t .v.packages , shirts and whatever else they ask of us .Once The City of Champions and now The City of Chumps . We are all misguided fools .

    Well, you know, I actually think they played pretty well. The first goal against was the result of a bad clearing attempt, and the second GA once again goes back to a play not made. That’s not a lot, and for me I’m more likely to blame Craig MacTavish for not getting a center and listening to that lunkhead Howson about the only crazy Russian without any redeeming qualities.

  52. OilClog says:

    Well, this truly is a bottomless pit.

    How do they justify losing to a team icing our former starting goalie and top 6 Hobbit, a team we must beat!

    At what point are they going to concede another version of the rebuild.

  53. Unicorns says:

    My current big concern is that if the low dollar keeps the cap from going up a lot that MacT won’t be smart enough to ditch overpaid players (at least 4) and will be hamstrung even if he realizes that some vets are crapping the bed.

  54. Dicky94 says:

    Have a feeling this team will look different before Wednesday.

  55. Ice Sage says:

    Dicky94: Have a feeling this team will look different before Wednesday.

    …when u’ve got nothing u’ve got nothing to lose…

  56. Bank Shot says:

    OilClog:
    Well, this truly is a bottomless pit.

    How do they justify losing to a team icing our former starting goalie and top 6 Hobbit, a team we must beat!

    At what point are they going to concede another version of the rebuild.

    Its ok. The easy part of the schedule is coming up right? right?

    The Oilers are killing it in moral victories and process/60 at least.

  57. SwedishPoster says:

    Perron had one of those games where pretty much every play died on his stick. He has them a bit too often for my liking. Since Arco was off as well Hall couldn’t get anything going until with his old line again.
    The dumbest of penalties from Pouliot.
    Hall and Yak had one short shift for like 20 seconds(that I noticed) together in the o-zoneand looked kind of good. Since Hall-Arco-Perron was an obvious failure and Yak didn’t get anything to work with on the Drai line, why not give Yak and Hall at least a few shifts. We were down in the game, why not see if they can create something together.

  58. G Money says:

    This team is certainly turning out the way I feared it would.

    The shot metrics and other visual elements (e.g. d structure) are better, no doubt.

    Enough to “win” the fancystats game.

    Unfortunately, something about the structure of the way they play the game (or maybe it’s the players) means that they regularly
    – Give up just enough chances and goals to lose, even when they play well
    – Manage to turn their possession into not nearly as many truly good chances for as they should, making the opposing goalie look like a Vezina candidate

    A few times is bad luck, the fancystats will win out, so goes the refrain.

    Bad luck is supposed to end.

    When?

    As I argued with WG a while back, this may be the “Efficient Market Hypothesis” applied to hockey.

    If you’re winning with lousy fancystats, its luck – sv% and sh% that will inevitably crash to earth. Every team thinks they’re immune, that they’re doing something special to beat the odds. Always false.

    However, that process is not symmetric. If you are consistently underperforming the fancystats, IT MAY NOT BE BAD LUCK. Just like investing, it’s incredibly tough to beat the efficient market, but it is very possible to make consistently stupid decisions that allow you to underperform the market, all the way to bankruptcy.

    We are at a point in the season where it’s still (barely) early enough to argue it’s bad luck.

    But how long before we decide it really is the investor (coaches, system, players) and not just some temporarily bad luck in the market?

  59. commonfan14 says:

    29th looking more and more likely.

    That’s still a 66.5% chance of missing on both McDavid and Eichel.

    Hopefully Hanifin is even better than Ekblad.

  60. Woodguy says:

    godot10:
    Ralph Kruegervs. Dallas Eakins

    Hallvs. Taylor Hall 2 years close rto his prime
    Nugent-Hopkins vs Nugent-Hopkings 2 years closer to his prime
    Eberle vs Eberle two years closer to his prime
    Yakupov (rookie) vs. Yakupov 2 years older
    Schultz (rookie) vs Schultz 2 years older
    Petry vs. Petry

    Horcoff vs Gordon
    Hemsky vs. Perron
    Gagner vs. Arcobello
    Belanger vs. Draisaitl

    Smyth vs. Pouliot
    Jones vs. Purcell
    Petrell vs. Hendricks
    Paajarvi vs. Joensuu

    Smid vs. Ference
    NSchutz vs. Nikitin
    Potter vs. Fayne
    Whitney vs. Marincin

    Dubnyk and Khabibulin vs Scrivens and Fasth.

    -9 goal differential and 45 points in a 48 game all Western conference schedule

    vs.

    -20 goal differential (I think) and no wins against the Western Conference in 8 games.(1 point in 8 games)

    And Krueger was an awful coach.

    5v5 Shooting %
    Krueger: 8.08
    Eakins 7.37

    5v5 SV%
    Krueger .925
    Eakins .897

    5v5 Shots For/60
    Krueger 26.47
    Eakins 29.74

    5v5 Shots Against/60
    Krueger 32.22
    Eakins 30.69

    5v4 SH%
    Krueger 16.86%
    Eakins 7.59%

    5v4 Shots/60
    Krueger 41.52
    Eakins 48.59

    4v5 Shots against/60
    Krueger 52.74
    Eakins 48.75

    4v5 SV%
    Krueger .896
    Eakins .869

    By every shot metric Eakins’ team puts Krueger’s in the shade. (as it should with the talent disparity)

    By every goalie metric Krueger gets a 20 yard head start.

    5v4 SH% *might* have a coaching element.

    Might.

    Krueger was an meh coach who got some decent goaltending.

  61. Woodguy says:

    G Money,

    However, that process is not symmetric. If you are consistently underperforming the fancystats, IT MAY NOT BE BAD LUCK. Just like investing, it’s incredibly tough to beat the efficient market, but it is very possible to make consistently stupid decisions that allow you to underperform the market, all the way to bankruptcy.

    Why don’t you flesh that out and analyze the teams in the past that consistently under performed their fancy stats.

    I’d like to read it.

  62. Bank Shot says:

    Woodguy:
    G Money,

    However, that process is not symmetric. If you are consistently underperforming the fancystats, IT MAY NOT BE BAD LUCK. Just like investing, it’s incredibly tough to beat the efficient market, but it is very possible to make consistently stupid decisions that allow you to underperform the market, all the way to bankruptcy.

    Why don’t you flesh that out and analyze the teams in the past that consistently under performed their fancy stats.

    I’d like to read it.

    New Jersey is the best example.

    On the other end of the spectrum, Nashville is a team that has more often than not outperformed their fancy stats since the lockout.

    There aren’t any answers for it thus far, but its not fair to just call anything that can’t be modeled yet luck and just ignore it.

  63. Adam Wu says:

    There is more than one path from “atrocious fancy-stats and always losing” to “excellent fancy-stats and consistently winning”.

    One of those pathways takes you through “improved fancy-stats but still finding ways to lose” land en-route.

    And that looks to be where we are now.

    As with any journey, there is never a guarantee that you will make it all the way. You could get stuck in the “finding ways to lose” land for a long time, maybe even forever.

    But of all the various things you can do at this point, the one with the greatest chance to get you to your final destination is to stay the course.

  64. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lowetide: I think the Oilers need to acquire a center who can play defense and has a cannon shot.

    Jarret Stoll? We got rid of him in a deal most people say the Oilers won, seven years ago.

  65. Zelepukin says:

    There were maybe 3 or 4 defensive zone breakouts where both Yaks and Nuge carried the puck up ice at surprisingly high levels of speed. #oilerspositives

  66. Chicken Laser says:

    LT –

    You provide a good blog before each game, but I’d like to see one after a game. The summation / the autopsy / the celebration… as it were.

    Yours truly,

    Laser Chicken

  67. VanOil says:

    G Money:
    The shot metrics and other visual elements (e.g. d structure) are better, no doubt.

    I think the visual structure of the game has only 3/4 improved by the Oilers. Offensively yes defensively it is not quite there.

    Unfortunately, something about the structure of the way they play the game (or maybe it’s the players) means that they regularly

    This has been troubling me. Tonight my current theory/excuse is the structure is following the players. I call players all kind of names and regularly trade them for buckets of pucks but I rarely call them soft or unmotivated. I think it requires tremendous courage and motivation to make the NHL.

    But, and it is a big but, the knuckle dragers may have a point, the Oilers personal dictates there structure, as it should. The Oilers are now able to play the cycle game on offense because the kids are gaining there man strength and are aided by veterans with size and skill.

    On defense they are forced to play the swarm, or more properly abandon the box system because the defense can not win 1 v 1 battles in the corners. Petry, at 26, may be at the point like the kids on offense that he no longer needs to be protected in the corners. But for the last few years the Oilers defense has been a mix of players that can’t be trusted in there own corners or of no use in the opposing corners. In the modern NHL D men need to activate as much as designated face punchers need to be sat in the press box.

    The challenge is finding a defenseman who does not need to be supported in his own corner and can support his forwards in the offensive corners. If you don’t find such players you must either shelter them or if you are unwilling or unable to do this help them in the corners by playing the swarm.

    Until the Oilers pass the tipping point of not needing to aide the majority of the defenders either the offensive or defensive corners, the defensive structure is going to suck because you can not magic yourself out of playing no defense at all. Good possession teams do not possess the puck always, just a little bit more than the other team.

    this may be the “Efficient Market Hypothesis” applied to hockey… underperform the market, all the way to bankruptcy.

    I love this theory. I am excited to learn more about it being applied to hockey. You are the person best qualified to bring it forward. I hope you find the time to prove it with numbers, I am willing to accept on faith but know I shouldn’t. Do not feel you need to rush though, it will be a long painful season you have all the time in the world and all of us, other than LT, should be doing something other than worrying about this confounded hockey team.

  68. stevezie says:

    Chicken Laser,

    Cult of Hockey has good ones. As much fun as one-stop shopping is, the best damn blogosphere in hockey doesn’t like to poach each other.

  69. stevezie says:

    I enjoy making fun of the Oilers on twitter, but really I thought there was more good than bad last night. The biggest problem, other than goaltending, is that the Oil are finally getting good at generating shots but it is not leading to goals.

    Maybe this is luck, but put me in the GMoney camp. This team needs net presence. Would I be crazy enough to trade Teddy Purcell for David Clarkson if the Leafs retained half his salary? I would sure think about it, I’ll admit that,

  70. MenovOil says:

    DFL in the West, winless against the West and have yet to play against the big boys like Anaheim, St-Louis, Chicago, etc.

    I’d say this team is a lock for a top three pick this year.

  71. Woodguy says:

    stevezie:
    I have making fun of the Oilers on twitter, but really I thought there was more good than bad last night. The biggest problem, other than goaltending, is that the Oil are finally getting good at generating shots but it is not leading to goals.

    Maybe this is luck, but put me in the GMoney camp. This team needs net presence. Would I be crazy enough to trade Teddy Purcell for David Clarkson if the Leafs retained half his salary? I would sure think about it, I’ll admit that,

    They’re getting much better at generating the first shot.

    They are still not good at getting and shooting rebounds.

    Rebounds (or 2nd shots within 3 seconds of the first shot) have something like a 20% scoring rate.

    Oilers serious lack those shots.

    Both 5v5, but especially 5v4.

    The Oilers’s goals (like most teams) tend to come mostly on 2nd shots.

    I can’t understand why they fail to populate the front of the net on every shift.

  72. Marcus Oilerius says:

    Woodguy,

    Shot metrics don’t count for shit when your shots are coming from the boards and theirs are coming from within 15 feet of the net. Furthermore, Krueger had Belanger and Eager over Gordon and Pouliot.

  73. Lowetide says:

    Chicken Laser:
    LT –

    You provide a good blog before each game, but I’d like to see one after a game. The summation / the autopsy / the celebration… as it were.

    Yours truly,

    Laser Chicken

    The forum in the GDT is normally a grand post-game location, although last night with the Eskimos victory I think we hit the hay a little early. Also, the CofH boys have carved out a dandy niche with expert work and dogged consistency, so I would recommend them highly after any game.

  74. Ryan says:

    Woodguy:
    G Money,

    However, that process is not symmetric. If you are consistently underperforming the fancystats, IT MAY NOT BE BAD LUCK. Just like investing, it’s incredibly tough to beat the efficient market, but it is very possible to make consistently stupid decisions that allow you to underperform the market, all the way to bankruptcy.

    Why don’t you flesh that out and analyze the teams in the past that consistently under performed their fancy stats.

    I’d like to read it.

    This ties into the zone entry data that Dellow and that Cory Snyjer guy were working on.

    LA over recent years has stellar possession metrics, but poor scoring and shooting percentages (last season when I read I hink it was a Tulsky article).

    Iirc, teams score much higher percentage of the time on the rush vs cycle.

    In this instance, I remember mentioning to Woodguy (in the preseason) that the players know the Oilers have a full-time guy counting Corgi’s, so it’s not surprising that shot volume will go up and quality down. Players can think.

  75. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    One sign that is heartening to this Oiler fan at this point in the long game is the following…

    We’re down to some really specific issues in terms of both roster construction and on-ice performance to deal with. It hasn’t been that way in a long time.

    With roster construction we’re looking at a gaping hole at centre and a bad bet made on D.

    Seriously, if you had signed Legwand (say) and spent Nikitin’s money on Stralman (say), I’d say the roster construction issues would be pretty much resolved.

    With the on-ice performance, we’re looking at two things.

    One, simply bad luck.

    Our goalers are vastly underperforming “replacement level.”

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/teamstats.php?disp=1&db=201415&sit=5v5&sort=SVPCT&sortdir=DESC

    These aren’t goalers with a history of doing so (sure, they both have short NHL histories, but we do have samples from other places to supplement our vision of their talent levels).

    You can make a safe assumption that if out goalers were simply hitting replacement level (no better, no worse), we’d look a lot more “balanced” as an on-ice product.

    Relatedly, we simply aren’t getting any luck shooting the puck.

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/teamstats.php?disp=1&db=201415&sit=5v5&sort=SHPCT&sortdir=DESC

    Some of which is explained by

    Two, the persistent problem the Oilers have of (as mentioned above) not challenging the net and gaining second attempts.

    Parkatti’s expected goals chart points to some of the problem here:

    http://www.boysonthebus.com/2014/11/10/season-fancystats-update-after-15-games/

    ————
    But, really… that’s the problem with the team. We aren’t talking about Cam Barker here or Stortini on the top line.

    1. Get a centre.

    2. find a way to replace Nikitin (with Marincin, Klefbom or other)

    3. wait on variance

    4. try to coach the Oilers into driving the net.

  76. "Frank The Dog" says:

    There’s probably 25 coaching staffs in the NHL that could and would do a better job with this roster than the present bunch.
    When Dubnyk plays as we had hoped he would for us and bot put goalies are slumping you know something’s wrong.

    We have weak goaltending, mediocre D, and an impotent offense.

    Our present state of statistical analysis is clear missing some statistically significant influences.

    I see no possibility of this team turning north in the foreseeable future under current circumstances.
    Connor won’t fix this team. The coaching is still broken and this organization may not be capable of fixing it.

  77. Kmart99 says:

    What’s the longest stretch that a team was able to keep their overall corsi above 50% and remain bottom 5, or even bottom 10 in the league?
    Are the Oilers in danger of being that team?

  78. Ryan says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    One sign that is heartening to this Oiler fan at this point in the long game is the following…

    We’re down to some really specific issues in terms of both roster construction and on-ice performance to deal with. It hasn’t been that way in a long time.

    With roster construction we’re looking at a gaping hole at centre and a bad bet made on D.

    Seriously, if you had signed Legwand (say) and spent Nikitin’s money on Stralman (say), I’d say the roster construction issues would be pretty much resolved.

    With the on-ice performance, we’re looking at two things.

    One, simply bad luck.

    Our goalers are vastly underperforming “replacement level.”

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/teamstats.php?disp=1&db=201415&sit=5v5&sort=SVPCT&sortdir=DESC

    These aren’t goalers with a history of doing so (sure, they both have short NHL histories, but we do have samples from other places to supplement our vision of their talent levels).

    You can make a safe assumption that if out goalers were simply hitting replacement level (no better, no worse), we’d look a lot more “balanced” as an on-ice product.

    Relatedly, we simply aren’t getting any luck shooting the puck.

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/teamstats.php?disp=1&db=201415&sit=5v5&sort=SHPCT&sortdir=DESC

    Some of which is explained by

    Two, the persistent problem the Oilers have of (as mentioned above) not challenging the net and gaining second attempts.

    Parkatti’s expected goals chart points to some of the problem here:

    http://www.boysonthebus.com/2014/11/10/season-fancystats-update-after-15-games/

    ————
    But, really… that’s the problem with the team. We aren’t talking about Cam Barker here or Stortini on the top line.

    1. Get a centre.

    2. find a way to replace Nikitin (with Marincin, Klefbom or other)

    3. wait on variance

    4. try to coach the Oilers into driving the net.

    Bob Stauffer said quite emphatically on his radio show last week (Fri iirc) that the Oilers absolutely are not bringing in a centre. He cited that teams are asking way too much right now. I would imagine that by the time the asking price drops, the impetus to bring in a centre will be gone (based on position in standings).

    It’s really easy to look at the possession metrics coupled with the Oilers’ PDO and predict an uptick in performance going forward.

    There are other possibilities… Perhaps the SV% is low secondary to issues such as poor done coverage, goalies being coached to drop down too soon, etc.

    It’s also possible that the improved possession metrics are largely driven by a team strategy of ‘shooting from anywhere.’

    Lastly, the Oilers have had too many perimeter players for years and coaching has historically been far less effective than bringing in a Pouliot.

  79. leadfarmer says:

    They need to find two guys that will consistently stand in front of the other teams net and stay there. Schultz’s muffin if seen is almost always stoppable but does get through fairly well so.

    Also, sorry I missed the discussion this weekend about Schultz getting the Yandle treatment. Yandle is a 25 minute a night defenseman, and the problem is Schultz is getting almost that many minutes.

  80. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Ryan: Bob Stauffer said quite emphatically on his radio show last week (Fri iirc) that the Oilers absolutely are not bringing in a centre. He cited that teams are asking way too much right now. I would imagine that by the time the asking price drops, the impetus to bring in a centre will be gone (based on position in standings).

    Regardless of whether they actually resolve the issue, the fact that one can clearly point to such an isolated issue is progress.

    The number and size of the holes to plug is vastly reduced.

    Ryan: It’s really easy to look at the possession metrics coupled with the Oilers’ PDO and predict an uptick in performance going forward.

    yep.

    Ryan: There are other possibilities… Perhaps the SV% is low secondary to issues such as poor done coverage, goalies being coached to drop down too soon, etc.

    I think we could easily say that goaler coaching and defensive systems account for part of the SV% issue.

    But, we have a fair amount of evidence that defensive systems have a limited impact on the true talent (sv%) of goalers. And, I can’t imagine goaler coaching can crater sv% in such an magnificent fashion.

    Over a small sample size, the cleanest, most sensible answer (besides injury for Fasth there for a few games) is variance.

    Ryan: It’s also possible that the improved possession metrics are largely driven by a team strategy of ‘shooting from anywhere.’

    If that were so, we should be applauding it and hoping it continues.

    Incidentally,

    2013-14 CF60 (5×5) 28th (48.5 events for)
    2014-15 CF60 (5×5) 13th (55.5 events for)

    2013-14 FF60 (5×5) 28th (35.9)
    2014-15 FF60 (5×5) 14th (40.6)

    This is a fantastic sign. Let’s hope it holds for the season.

    This team is generating a lot more shots than they have historically in the Tambo era.

    From everything we know in the analytics era, this is a good thing that will translate into success over the long haul.

    Ryan: Lastly, the Oilers have had too many perimeter players for years and coaching has historically been far less effective than bringing in a Pouliot.

    This is a supplementary issue to the above. Getting shots is more important.

    But, if we believe coaching can affect shot rates, we surely can believe coaching can affect shot distance.

    And, yes… absolutely, roster construction is the quickest, surest way to resolve on-ice issues. always has been. Doesn’t mean you can’t coach what you’ve got.

  81. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy: They’re getting much better at generating the first shot.They are still not good at getting and shooting rebounds.Rebounds (or 2nd shots within 3 seconds of the first shot) have something like a 20% scoring rate.Oilers serious lack those shots.Both 5v5, but especially 5v4.The Oilers’s goals (like most teams) tend to come mostly on 2nd shots. I can’t understand why they fail to populate the front of the net on every shift.

    This is backed up the data. Back to back Corsi events less than 4 seconds apart have a real high chance of going in. It supports the axiom of “shoot get rebounds”. It seems, by eye, this team has less of these chance than the good teams. *shrug*

    http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2014/10/16/6986961/nhl-data-mining-part-1-shot-quality-and-inter-arrival-times-between

    I would love to know where the Oil rank for the number of these “T-minus 4 sec” Corsi events.

  82. godot10 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:

    One, simply bad luck.

    Our goalers are vastly underperforming “replacement level.”

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/teamstats.php?disp=1&db=201415&sit=5v5&sort=SVPCT&sortdir=DESC

    These aren’t goalers with a history of doing so (sure, they both have short NHL histories, but we do have samples from other places to supplement our vision of their talent levels).

    You can make a safe assumption that if out goalers were simply hitting replacement level (no better, no worse), we’d look a lot more “balanced” as an on-ice product.

    Eakins is now up to five goaltenders underperforming their track record. At some point you have to stop blaming the goaltender and blame the coach and his defensive systems. Eakins’ narcissism seems to undermine the level of performance of the majority of his players.

    Dubnyk and LaBarbara are returning to form elsewhere in Phoenix and Anaheim.

    When you are outperforming the expected result, good luck is the probable reason.
    When you are underperforming the expected result, there are other possible reasons than just bad luck, especially as the sample size slowly increases, and the number of players underperforming their track record increases.

    The predictions of “statistics” aren’t valid if the distributions aren’t normally distributed.

    80% percent of mutual fund managers underperform their benchmark index. Outperformance is likely good luck. Underperformance happens for more reasons than just bad luck, or it would be more like 50% rather than 80%. It is risky to assume underperformance is bad luck.

  83. Pouzar says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: One sign that is heartening to this Oiler fan at this point in the long game is the following…We’re down to some really specific issues in terms of both roster construction and on-ice performance to deal with. It hasn’t been that way in a long time.With roster construction we’re looking at a gaping hole at centre and a bad bet made on D. Seriously, if you had signed Legwand (say) and spent Nikitin’s money on Stralman (say), I’d say the roster construction issues would be pretty much resolved.With the on-ice performance, we’re looking at two things.One, simply bad luck. Our goalers are vastly underperforming “replacement level.” http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/teamstats.php?disp=1&db=201415&sit=5v5&sort=SVPCT&sortdir=DESCThese aren’t goalers with a history of doing so (sure, they both have short NHL histories, but we do have samples from other places to supplement our vision of their talent levels).You can make a safe assumption that if out goalers were simply hitting replacement level (no better, no worse), we’d look a lot more “balanced” as an on-ice product.Relatedly, we simply aren’t getting any luck shooting the puck. http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/teamstats.php?disp=1&db=201415&sit=5v5&sort=SHPCT&sortdir=DESCSome of which is explained by Two, the persistent problem the Oilers have of (as mentioned above) not challenging the net and gaining second attempts.Parkatti’s expected goals chart points to some of the problem here:http://www.boysonthebus.com/2014/11/10/season-fancystats-update-after-15-games/————But, really… that’s the problem with the team. We aren’t talking about Cam Barker here or Stortini on the top line.1. Get a centre.2. find a way to replace Nikitin (with Marincin, Klefbom or other)3. wait on variance4. try to coach the Oilers into driving the net.

    If we could do “stickys” on this site this would be the only one you would need.

  84. godot10 says:

    leadfarmer:
    They need to find two guys that will consistently stand in front of the other teams net and stay there.Schultz’s muffin if seen is almost always stoppable but does get through fairly well so.

    So match Petry with Nugent-Hopkins on PP#1, and Schultz with Yakupov on PP#2. Yakupov will one-time those passes from Schultz as Schultz drifts to the centre point on the power play.

    Corey Potter with Nugent-Hopkins on the power play was actually more effective than Schultz with Nugent-Hopkins. Petry is more like Potter. With Fayne around, Petry should be used on the PP.

  85. G Money says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Terrific post!

    Where have you been!?!?!

  86. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    G Money:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Terrific post!

    Where have you been!?!?!

    thanks!

    I’ve been working hard on my thigh gap.

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