OILERS ACQUIRE HEAVY

The Edmonton Oilers made a trade today, perhaps signalling Steve Pinizzotto’s arrival as an NHL player. With Pinizzotto scoring a goal, an assist and getting in a fight last night, Craig MacTavish moved quickly to get some toughness for the Oklahoma City Barons lineup. Kellen Lain is a big (6.06, 210) center who is 25 and has limited NHL experience. He isn’t going to score you a bunch of goals but he did score a goal in Vancouver’s 2-1 win over Edmonton back in January (I believe it was his second NHL game).

We may never see Lain in the NHL as an Oiler but he’ll probably play with a few of the club’s hopefuls over the next while. He’s an RFA summer 2015 and makes 200 large in the AHL.

pinizzotto first goalFor Pinizzotto, this has to be legit good news. He stepped right into the lineup (and over Luke Gazdic) last night, scoring a goal and looking like he was right at home (except for that one play). If you read McCurdy’s CofH summary from last night’s game, you can his possible future in a ‘lordy, that Ryan Jones hair sure flies through the air a lot’ kind of way:

  • #13 Steve Pinizzotto, 6. Had a memorable season debut, registering the “Gordie Howe Hat Trick”, but a couple of down arrows took the edge off his night. His early fight with Derek Dorsett did little to lift the team, but his second-period goal on a fine rush and wrist shot lit a fire, and he later earned a somewhat cheap assist on Gordon’s 3-3 goal. Alas, he was in the box for a Vancouver PP goal for an unnecessary penalty 200 feet from his own net, and made a bad read as the high forward that helped spring the Canucks jailbreak on what turned out to be the game winning goal. Hard to begrudge a guy his first career goal at age 30, however. Now has all 4 of his career points in just 2 games against his former employer, Vancouver. Source

I don’t think it’s a major stretch to suggest Pinizzotto outplayed the guy (Joensuu) who got the job out of training camp, and this looks like justice to me. Added to Pakarinen, you could make a case that the wingers from the 2010 draft (Pitlick, Hamilton) are on the outside looking in. Of course, there’s track to go but that’s what it looks like from here. A nice trade by MacT (Martindale for Pinizzotto) and perhaps a tip of the cap to the pro scouts.

PINIZZOTTO’S WOWY  AFTER ONE GAME (FRAME THIS!)

pinizzotto wowy

 

MITCH HOLMBERG

Checkers vs. Barons 4-6-14

Final item: Trade trade was Will Acton and Mitch Holmberg for Lain, both men likely heading to Utica. He struggled in the ECHL (Bakersfield) so that part of the trade is no big deal short term but you never know. These young men are bound and determined to write their own scripts and counting them out is never a good idea. I hope Acton, Holmberg and Lain flourish in their new situations.

(Barons and Comets photos are courtesy Rob Ferguson. All rights reserved).

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73 Responses to "OILERS ACQUIRE HEAVY"

  1. Yeti says:

    But what did they give up for these prize assets?
    And why couldn’t they just have put Gazdic in OC for toughness? Do they really fear that the worst player on one of the worst teams would be plucked on waivers?

    Edit: I see elsewhere that it’s Acton who’s gone. Sail on fortunate son.

  2. icecastles says:

    A nice trade by MacT (Martindale for Pinizzotto) and perhaps a tip of the cap to the pro scouts.

    Come on, LT, we’re trying to be cynical curmudgeons over here. Get with the program!

    the deal also included Mitch Holmberg heading to Utica.

    I thought Scranton absorbed Utica.

    Okay, now that I’ve got this out of my system: As fans, every time we see a deal made, we wait for the other shoe to drop, in the hopes that this is a precursor to a bigger deal that makes significant waves on the roster. This one seems to be standalone and doesn’t really free any meaningful money or roster space that could signal another pending trade. And on its own merits, I’m with LT that this is a perfectly reasonable trade to have made.

    I wonder though, have there been rumblings of an attempt to find another veteran centre? Brodziak’s name has been bandied about on here, but I believe (correct me if I’m wrong) that this is jut fans talking/thinking – there’s been no verbal from the team or the usual insiders. We know what is needed to flesh out the big club’s roster. But for all our bellyaching, I’m not sure such a potential deal exists anywhere in the league right now.

  3. book¡je says:

    Any moment now, the other shoe will drop that addresses the 2nd line centre, goaltending and defensive problems…

  4. Bad Seed says:

    That’s fantastic fukken news that they’re shoring up that farm team!

  5. G Money says:

    *** SH% AGING CURVE ***

    This is to follow up from the conversation on “PDORel” from previous threads, particularly for Kmart99 and Younger Oil, but presumably others will find this at least a bit interesting.

    I went and parsed the data on sh% by career year for players to see what the “aging curve” for sh% might look like.

    The data is from Rob Vollman, I have used data from 1998 on (assuming that prior to that is not needed for volume, and probably not that relevant to today).

    Here is the aging curve for Forwards:
    http://i.imgur.com/L4PHjum.png

    Here is the aging curve for sh% for Defensemen:
    http://i.imgur.com/NSfCHsf.png

    It’s remarkably stable for forwards, increasing slowly for six years, peaking at 6/8 (will need to dig into the year 7 dip), then declining equally smoothly. A perfect curve!

    While for defenseman you can see that its more or less flat and stable for the first eight years, then declines substantially.

    In both cases you can see peaks at career seasons 14 and 15, but bear in mind the data is very sparse by then (single digits for year 15), and so what you’re looking at is the freaks of nature. Not surprising that a guy playing in his fifteenth year can still shoot well – otherwise I guess he’d have retired…

  6. Woodguy says:

    G Money:
    *** SH% AGING CURVE ***

    This is to follow up from the conversation on “PDORel” from previous threads, particularly for Kmart99 and Younger Oil, but presumably others will find this at least a bit interesting.

    I went and parsed the data on sh% by career year for players to see what the “aging curve” for sh% might look like.

    The data is from Rob Vollman, I have used data from 1998 on (assuming that prior to that is either not relevant to today).

    Here is the aging curve for Forwards:
    http://i.imgur.com/L4PHjum.png

    Here is the aging curve for sh% for Defensemen:
    http://i.imgur.com/NSfCHsf.png

    It’s remarkably stable for forwards, increasing slowly for six years, peaking at 6/8 (will need to dig into the year 7 dip), while for defenseman you can see that its more or less stable for the first eight years, then declines substantially.

    In both cases you can see peaks at career seasons 14 and 15, but bear in mind the data is very sparse by then (single digits for year 15), and so what you’re looking at is the freaks of nature.Not surprising that a guy playing in his fifteenth year can still shoot well.

    Big survivor bias in years 14 & 15.

    Good stuff sir.

  7. Gret99zky says:

    What? No sail on?

  8. Younger Oil says:

    G Money,

    Great work! I definitely think there’s something useful in PDO Rel, and that data definitely helps!

    It just occured to me though, for the most part we’ve been defining it is how “lucky” a team is, or how far away they are from the team performance that is predicted from the individual players’ history, which should in theory revert to the mean over time. However, if it is found that a PDO Rel is negative year after year, could that be an indication of poor coaching/management, or a cancerous organization?

  9. Woodguy says:

    I think that Lain may be tagged as the actual Gazdic replacement.

    He’s very large, can fight, but is not “a fighter”

    Has very little offence, but I don’t think that offence is a deal breaker for their 4th line wingers.

    The ability to fight if necessary and give the hairy eyeball to “keep the peace” is what they want while not hurting the team. (I’m not debating the actual usefulness of that type of player. They want one. Fin.)

    I think this trade shows that they don’t think Gazdic is that guy.

    The fact that they pulled Pinizzotto from the AHL and put him directly in the line up over Gazdic speaks to this as well.

  10. G Money says:

    Younger Oil,

    I definitely think there is a sticky component to PDO – that is to say a. some bad teams are going to have a low PDO because they are bad, b. some good teams are going to have a high PDO because they are good, c. those numbers are going to have some persistence year to year.

    Parkatti did an analysis that supports that idea:
    http://www.boysonthebus.com/2013/04/16/investigation-into-the-sustainability-of-team-percentages-part-i-pdo/

    My theory would be that PDO Rel would also show the same effect.

    For example, if the ‘Chabot is bad’ theory is correct, then goalies in Edmonton will have a sv% that is persistently below their career sv%, and bingo, an influence pushing towards a persistently poor PDO and also showing up as a persistently poor PDO Rel – at least until that goalie has played enough lousy years for Edmonton that he depresses the “Rel” part!!

  11. Woodguy says:

    For everyone wanting Cody Eakin from DAL.

    He’s centering Benn and Seguin tonight.

    May not be available.

    Also,

    Roussel-Spezza-Hemsky is interesting.

    Hemsky back with a real C.

    Might get some points!!

  12. leadfarmer says:

    So close to that mythical 3 for 1 trade. Sigh.

  13. []JUST[]KEEP[]CALM[]AND[]CORSI[]ON[] says:

    Mitch Holmberg – man, I loved his bit about rice being the perfect food when you’re hungry for 2000 of something. Oh… wait…

  14. Woodguy says:

    G Money:
    Younger Oil,

    I definitely think there is a sticky component to PDO – that is to say a. some bad teams are going to have a low PDO because they are bad, b. some good teams are going to have a high PDO because they are good, c. those numbers are going to have some persistence year to year.

    Parkatti did an analysis that supports that idea:
    http://www.boysonthebus.com/2013/04/16/investigation-into-the-sustainability-of-team-percentages-part-i-pdo/

    My theory would be that PDO Rel would also show the same effect.

    For example, if the ‘Chabot is bad’ theory is correct, then goalies in Edmonton will have a sv% that is persistently below their career sv%, and bingo, an influence pushing towards a persistently poor PDO and also showing up as a persistently poor PDO Rel – at least until that goalie has played enough lousy years for Edmonton that he depresses the “Rel” part!!

    The question is “how can you be sure that Chabot is the variable that causes the lower SV%”

  15. Clay says:

    []JUST[]KEEP[]CALM[]AND[]CORSI[]ON[]:
    Mitch Holmberg – man, I loved his bit about rice being the perfect food when you’re hungry for 2000 of something. Oh… wait…

    “I used to lay in my twin bed and wonder where my brother was…”

  16. sliderule says:

    Gagner on pp wins three face offs and makes a nice move to setup Coyote goal.

    Coyote announcers raving about what a steal they made on oilers.

    Nichushkin in minors for Dallas so oil are not only one with slow development of drafts.

  17. OilClog says:

    Clay: “I used to lay in my twin bed and wonder where my brother was…”

    “The depressing thing about tennis is that no matter how good I get, I’ll never be as good as a wall”

  18. []JUST[]KEEP[]CALM[]AND[]CORSI[]ON[] says:

    OilClog: “The depressing thing about tennis is that no matter how good I get, I’ll never be as good as a wall”

    I’m against protesting – I just don’t know how to show it.

  19. Lowetide says:

    Nurse scores, now 11gp, 5-9-14 for the season

  20. Woodguy says:

    sliderule:
    Gagneron pp wins three face offs and makes a nice move to setup Coyote goal.

    Coyote announcers raving about what a steal they made on oilers.

    Nichushkin in minors for Dallas so oil are not only one with slow development of drafts.

    They got him from Tampa, not Edmonton

  21. Woodguy says:

    sliderule:
    Gagneron pp wins three face offs and makes a nice move to setup Coyote goal.

    Coyote announcers raving about what a steal they made on oilers.

    Nichushkin in minors for Dallas so oil are not only one with slow development of drafts.

    Nichushkin out for the season with hip surgery actually.

  22. RexLibris says:

    Hmm.

    Oilers looking like they replace Gazdic with what appears to be a functional toughness player for the 4C spot and rid themselves of a FA longshot and everybody’s favourite “smell that won’t go away”.

    This is a smart, subtle, nuanced move that good teams quietly make.

    Contrast that with the horror show that is going on in the NHL and the juxtaposition is making my head hurt.

  23. flyfish1168 says:

    flames are on resilient team

  24. Unicorns says:

    RexLibris,

    “This is a smart, subtle, nuanced move that good teams quietly make. ”

    Trading non NHL players? They are both marginal at best. It’s a gamble in the direction of what they want. I don’t think big slow players suit today’s hockey. Fast skilled quick thinking brave players do.

  25. book¡je says:

    []JUST[]KEEP[]CALM[]AND[]CORSI[]ON[]: I’m against protesting – I just don’t know how to show it.

    Perhaps this one is the most relevant regarding the Oilers and fandom “You know, I’m sick of following my dreams, man. I’m just gonna ask where they’re going and hook up with ‘em later.”

  26. RexLibris says:

    Unicorns,

    No, but it is a small move that arguably helps the team if it means they are going to replace Gazdic with a more capable NHL player who can fill that role. I don’t think this compares to the Kessy/Reider trade, for instance.

    Maybe the fact that we find a silver lining in so trivial a move is another sign of a fan base desperate for signs of improvement.

    This is the sort of thing an AGM should be handling, though, similar to the Martindale/Pinizzotto move last year. Not sure if Scott made this move or it was MacTavish.

  27. Old School G says:

    Bergevin seems to be making some deals, adding Gonchar and Allen, shedding Moen and Borque, hmmm – I’m in the “next trade we see MacT making is going to be team altering” camp.

    If that trade were to happen tonight, I’d be ok with that. Who’s it going to be?

  28. RexLibris says:

    Fenclose after one has the Hawks ahead 58/42.

    Last time these two met the Hawks absolutely dominated them to the tune of 76/24 Fenclose, but the Flames won the game 2-1 iirc.

    Flames are still 3rd worst team in the league in FenClose (47.42), CorsiFor% (46.36), and are riding a sky-high PDO right now.

  29. Unicorns says:

    RexLibris:
    Unicorns,

    No, but it is a small move that arguably helps the team if it means they are going to replace Gazdic with a more capable NHL player who can fill that role. I don’t think this compares to the Kessy/Reider trade, for instance.

    Maybe the fact that we find a silver lining in so trivial a move is another sign of a fan base desperate for signs of improvement.

    This is the sort of thing an AGM should be handling, though, similar to the Martindale/Pinizzotto move last year. Not sure if Scott made this move or it was MacTavish.

    You’re right. Replacing a non player with a player that at least can possibly do something is a good move.

    I’d like to take this opportunity to break out

    “ditch your honour for Connor”

  30. hags9k says:

    Nice to have Gazdic around and available just in case we start to climb up out of McDavid territory.

  31. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy: The question is “how can you be sure that Chabot is the variable that causes the lower SV%”

    I really believe the reason why our goaltenders have a lower save percentage than the league average is because they see a larger amount of tougher shots against than most other teams.

    I also believe that shooting % for the oilers is low because they take a bunch of shots that are not hard to stop.

    For example in the first game of the year, Edmonton outshot Calgary by 14 shots
    Edmonton lost 5-2

    Rammo had a save % of .950
    Scrivens had a save % of .808.

    Edmonton had a shooting % of 5%
    Calgary had a shooting % of 19.2%

    But what were the quality of those shots?

    Edmonton had 26 clean shots for ( which are shots goalie has no trouble seeing)
    Calgary had 14 clean shots for

    Edmonton had 5 clean shots for that would be labeled difficult saves for an opposing goalie
    Calgary had 6 clean shots for that would be labeled difficult saves for an opposing goalie.

    Transitional Shots ( from passes like a one timer, where the goalie has to move across)
    Edmonton had 5 transitional shots
    Calgary had 2

    Rebounds
    Edmonton had 3 rebound shots
    Calgary had 3 rebound shots

    Traffic, deflection and tip ins
    Edmonton had 4 of these
    Calgary had 6

    On average throughout the league in 2012-13, save percentage for a
    clean shot is .951
    transitional shot is .693
    rebound is .760
    traffic/deflections is.763

    But this is an example of a game in which most people would agree that Edmonton won the puck possession stats. But Rammos stats were definitely padded by the huge amount of clean shots that were not difficult to save. Scrivens did not have a great game and along with the high quality of shots vs low quantity of shots ends up with a shitty save %.

    Now, of course this is just one game and the sample size is small. It would be nice to have last years shot quality to compare. But it is tough slugging this stuff.

    My theory is this. Edmonton is not dumping the puck in as much as they did last year. I’m actually noticing a big change in this. And we know that if a team is entering the o zone on a controlled entry it usually leads better possession and more shots. This is a good thing because the other team has less possession and the oilers are giving up fewer shots this year.

    But in Edmonton’s case, there is not a increase in tougher shots for. They are actually shooting less from the box this year compared to last year, and more from the perimeter. And we all know they have trouble causing havoc in front of the opposing net. So what the oilers have done, have increased the amount of shots, but possibly decreased quality. Opposing goalies see more shots, but they are not tough. Why this, if true, has happened, I don’t know. To increase corsi? Baby steps I guess.

    On the defensive side of things. Our goalies still see more than average quality shots their way. I think even if the oilers had a top 10 goalie, he would have trouble getting a league average save %. Our defensive puck awareness by most of the team just doesnt make it easy for the guy tending the pipes for the oilers.

    This is why IMHO, PDO sucks yet again for the oilers

  32. RexLibris says:

    frjohnk,

    This is really fascinating stuff here. I applaud the work you’ve done and *crosses fingers* have committed to doing.

    This seems to jive well with RtBs box work about protecting the dangerous area of the net, thus reducing traffic, leaving cleaner shots for the goalie and perhaps improving sv% as a result.

    Wrt the Oilers abysmal sh% I think you have the right idea in that creating havoc in front of the net is key. That’s not news. We’ve been hearing for years now about the OIlers needing to learn to score from the blue paint – Ryan Smyth is our exemplar here.

    Perron seemed to do some of that last year, Nugent-Hopkins has a reasonable proportion of goals scored by simply skating through that area and tapping in a rebound/pass.

    From what I have seen of the current forward group, I would suggest that Pouliot, Perron and Yakupov all have the ability to go into that area and wreck a little havoc. I think it would take some coaching and adjustment, but perhaps the assets are there.

  33. flyfish1168 says:

    RexLibris:
    Fenclose after one has the Hawks ahead 58/42.

    Last time these two met the Hawks absolutely dominated them to the tune of 76/24 Fenclose, but the Flames won the game 2-1 iirc.

    Flames are still 3rd worst team in the league in FenClose (47.42), CorsiFor% (46.36), and are riding a sky-high PDO right now.

    I believe the Avalanche did this last year and road it all the way into the playoffs and almost to the 2nd round.

    Its early but the flames may do the same.

  34. stevezie says:

    frjohnk,

    The parts about the oilers not jamming the net enough is matches my eyes. We’ve got a lot of guys who are skilled at getting a good first shot, but against most NHL goalies scoring often requires a tip, a screen or a rebound. We don’t have that at all, and our “skill” is nice but not nice enough to overcome that lack.

    The part about the goalies strikes me as plausible, but even if we are giving up more good chances than average I still think the goaltending needs to be better. The present svp % isn’t just belor average, it’s DFL.

    Kudos.

  35. stevezie says:

    Woodguy,

    However you read the signs they don’t look good if you’re Luke Gazdic.

    I think he’s a great fighter whose role is vanishing.

    If the GM sees it that way it suits me fine, but I am wondering why that same GM not only resigned him, but resigned him to a two year deal?

    My guess is the effectiveness of the “4th” line surprised a lot of people (me included) and the idea of spotting Gazdic in here and there became a lot less palatable when they saw what it meant giving up.

    Joensu was good, Pinizzoto was good, Iiro was good. That’s three depth guys who played well enough to make it a substantial drop off to ice Gazdic. Poor guy misses Ryan Jones more than he could have ever guessed,

    P.S If Gazdic can learn to kill penalties he may have a future (Dorsett, Proust etc.).

  36. godot10 says:

    The Oilers and Eakins are doing a horrible job of developing both Schultz and Yakupov (and Draisaitl), using neither properly. Both entered the NHL at the same time. Schultz plays the harder position.

    So why does the blogosphere give Yakupov a pass, and condemn Schultz. I blame the coach. It is frustrating to watch both play.

    Eakins has never played or utilized his players to their strengths.

    Poor teams get better by playing to their strengths. The fancy stats don’t really matter at this point, because one is undoubtedly making compromises in order to play to your strengths. Good teams get better by obsessing about their weaknesses. This is where one should obsess about fancy stats. Eakins doesn’t understand the process. His process is to be a bully with coach’s pets.

    Eakins is an inexperienced coach, and a systems coach, so he doesn’t understand this. With the Marlies, his only coaching experience, he had a stacked roster with NHL backup quality goaltending, because Burke spend MLSE money on college free agents. He had never coached an outmanned roster until he got to the Oilers. He has essentially no clue about how to coach an undermanned roster, to compensate for glaring weaknesses in the roster, like Renney, and Krueger, and Hartley do.

    Mostly everyone on the Oilers roster is underperforming under Eakins. The five underperforming goaltenders are not exceptional in this respect.

    Hall had gone supernova under Krueger and was 2nd in Western Conference scoring to Toews. Eakins snuffed out the supernova.

  37. frjohnk says:

    RexLibris,

    stevezie,

    Thanks. Still not sure if this is an undertaking I want to do.

    The more I look at what our goalies face each game, I’m leaning to the side that goaltending is not near the top of the list when looking at what ails this team. Yeah, it is not a strong suit, but I believe its better than what most people say.

    Its possible we have almost average goaltenders but with way way way below average team defensive, save % is in the crapper.

  38. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk,

    I agree with that.

    Its also interesting to look at waronice’s goalie SV% from the low%, medium% and high% shooting areas.

    Here’s where Fasth and Scrivens rank in each: (minimum 250min played – all situations – 52 goalies qualified)

    High percentage areas: (median = .819 Pekka Rinne)

    Scrivens .830 (25/52)
    Fasth .765 (49/52)

    Medium percentage areas: (median = .899 MA Fleury)

    Scrivens .862 (45/52)
    Fasth .855 (49/52)

    Low percentage areas: (median = .970 3 tied)

    Scrivens .949 (47/52)
    Fasth .983 (10/52)

    So Scrivens is actually pretty decent from the high percentage areas, but is shitting the bed at medium and low percetage shots

    Fasth is awful in high and medium, but near perfect from low percentage.

    If we just look at 5v5 SV% then we get: (163min to qualify – 54 goalies qualified)

    High percentage areas: (median = .846 Luongo)

    Scrivens .823 (33/54)
    Fasth .739 (52/54)

    Medium percentage areas: (median = .903 Lehtonen)

    Scrivens .901 (33/54)
    Fasth .844 (53/54)

    Low percentage areas: (median = .977 Mason)

    Scrivens .952 (48/52)
    Fasth .982 (17/54)

    More of the same although Scrivens drops in ranking and somehow Fasth manages to be worse.

    The Oilers do give up more slot shots, but make no mistake, the goaltending is hurting them.

  39. Woodguy says:

    godot10:
    The Oilers and Eakins are doing a horrible job of developing both Schultz and Yakupov (and Draisaitl), using neither properly.Both entered the NHL at the same time.Schultz plays the harder position.

    So why does the blogosphere give Yakupov a pass, and condemn Schultz.I blame the coach.It is frustrating to watch both play.

    Eakins has never played or utilized his players to their strengths.

    Poor teams get better by playing to their strengths.The fancy stats don’t really matter at this point, because one is undoubtedly making compromises in order to play to your strengths.Good teams get better by obsessing about their weaknesses. This is where one should obsess about fancy stats.Eakins doesn’t understand the process. His process is to be a bully with coach’s pets.

    Eakins is an inexperienced coach, and a systems coach, so he doesn’t understand this.With the Marlies, his only coaching experience, he had a stacked roster with NHL backup quality goaltending, because Burke spend MLSE money on college free agents.He had never coached an outmanned roster until he got to the Oilers.He has essentially no clue about how to coach an undermanned roster, to compensate for glaring weaknesses in the roster, like Renney, and Krueger, and Hartley do.

    Mostly everyone on the Oilers roster is underperforming under Eakins.The five underperforming goaltenders are not exceptional in this respect.

    Hall had gone supernova under Krueger and was 2nd in Western Conference scoring to Toews.Eakins snuffed out the supernova.

    You managed to say a lot about how he’s ruining them except I don’t see how they are being ruined.

    How is Eakins’ use of Shultz ruining him?

    Serious question.

  40. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Funny trade.

    Reminds me of the Pinz/Combs for Martindale/Nesbit trade.

    No one remarkable, but a few players nearing AHL competence and looking for fresh starts.

    Not sure why they threw Holmberg in there. Maybe they wanted to give him a fresh start (he didn’t seem to get any TOI under the coach in Bakersfield)

  41. elgruntus says:

    []JUST[]KEEP[]CALM[]AND[]CORSI[]ON[]:
    Mitch Holmberg – man, I loved his bit about rice being the perfect food when you’re hungry for 2000 of something. Oh… wait…

    ” I think Pringles’ original intention was to make tennis balls… but on the day the rubber was supposed to show up a truckload of potatoes came. Pringles is a laid-back company, so they just said, “Fuck it, cut em up!”

  42. "Frank The Dog" says:

    Give credit where due. It wasn’t fair to Acton to have him here, they should never have brought him here in the fast place seeing his Dad was one of the coaches. I do understand though that Eakins needed to seed “his” players into the team, however it wasn’t the right call and Acton can now get a fair shake on his new team.

  43. Hammers says:

    Best part was for Acton as he gets out from under his dads linkage . Good Luck . Now we need McT to do something that really matters . Give Eakins that “C” and a better “D” than we have and a true evaluation of Eakins can take place . Problem would still be how he would use 2 actual NHL players ( Please McT ).

  44. Bruce McCurdy says:

    RexLibris: We’ve been hearing for years now about the OIlers needing to learn to score from the blue paint – Ryan Smyth is our exemplar here.

    …and the pre-eye-injury Ryan Jones.

  45. Bruce McCurdy says:

    frjohnk: Opposing goalies see more shots, but they are not tough. Why this, if true, has happened, I don’t know. To increase corsi? Baby steps I guess.

    Backwards baby steps if they are shooting to improve underlying numbers rather than to score goals.

    The exemplar in this case is Patrick O’Sullivan. Say no more.

  46. Bruce McCurdy says:

    godot10:
    Hall had gone supernova under Krueger and was 2nd in Western Conference scoring to Toews.Eakins snuffed out the supernova.

    Obviously that’s why Hall fell all the way from 9th in NHL scoring unnder Krueger to 7th under Eakins.

    #BecauseNarrative

  47. Lowetide says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Obviously that’s why Hall fell all the way from 9th in NHL scoring unnder Krueger to 7th under Eakins.

    #BecauseNarrative

    Haha, McCurdy. Nicely done.

  48. godot10 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Obviously that’s why Hall fell all the way from 9th in NHL scoring unnder Krueger to 7th under Eakins.

    #BecauseNarrative

    Hall had no eastern conference games in the lockout shortened season. He did last year. Compare apples with apples. Plus, we know from Dellow’s work last year that Hall had really regressed because of Eakin’s systems, and it was only unsustainable percentage of points (2nd assists) to goals scored while he was on the ice last year that led to those point totals.

    If not for that unsustainable percentage, the Oiler blogosphere would have been freaking out squared. It was already somewhat freaking out because of the dramatic decline in his Corsi under Eakins last year.

    Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, and Eberle have yet to dominate at even strength under Eakins, like they did under Krueger, and to a lesser extent, under Renney.

  49. Clay says:

    godot10:
    The Oilers and Eakins are doing a horrible job of developing both Schultz and Yakupov (and Draisaitl), using neither properly.Both entered the NHL at the same time.Schultz plays the harder position.

    So why does the blogosphere give Yakupov a pass, and condemn Schultz.I blame the coach.It is frustrating to watch both play.

    I’m not going to speak for everyone, but for me, it’s because Schultz is three years older and has never once been given the full-period benching treatment for defensive ineptitude that would’ve earned Yakupov lots of pine time. Double standard.

    Woodguy: You managed to say a lot about how he’s ruining them except I don’t see how they are being ruined.

    How is Eakins’ use of Shultz ruining him?

    Serious question.

    The sad truth is that Schultz and Yak and now Leon are being ruined simply because Eakins is using them. It’s not his fault though, he plays the roster he’s given. (Ok, ‘ruined’ is a bit dramatic – but they certainly are not being put in a position to succeed).

    The NHL is NOT a developmental league – I wish someone would staple that note to MacT’s forehead.

  50. Kmart99 says:

    G Money:
    Younger Oil,

    I definitely think there is a sticky component to PDO – that is to say a. some bad teams are going to have a low PDO because they are bad, b. some good teams are going to have a high PDO because they are good, c. those numbers are going to have some persistence year to year.

    Parkatti did an analysis that supports that idea:
    http://www.boysonthebus.com/2013/04/16/investigation-into-the-sustainability-of-team-percentages-part-i-pdo/

    My theory would be that PDO Rel would also show the same effect.

    For example, if the ‘Chabot is bad’ theory is correct, then goalies in Edmonton will have a sv% that is persistently below their career sv%, and bingo, an influence pushing towards a persistently poor PDO and also showing up as a persistently poor PDO Rel – at least until that goalie has played enough lousy years for Edmonton that he depresses the “Rel” part!!

    If a goalie has been able to keep his save% consistent over a long enough period of time, it shouldn’t matter who the goalie coach is. I can’t imagine Carey Price coming here and all of a sudden become a bad goalie because of Chabot.

    Same goes for coaching affecting sh%. Sure there’s an effect there to some degree, but ultimately, if you’re a sniper you’re a sniper, and if you’re not… you’re not. Nothing a coach can really do to change that. IMHO

    Using career averages isn’t perfect, but it’s definitely a better indicator, I think, than using a league average PDO of 100.

  51. Kmart99 says:

    godot10: Hall had no eastern conference games in the lockout shortened season.He did last year.Compare apples with apples. Plus, we know from Dellow’s work last year that Hall had really regressed because of Eakin’s systems, and it was only unsustainable percentage of points (2nd assists) to goals scored while he was on the ice last year that led to those point totals.

    If not for that unsustainable percentage, the Oiler blogosphere would have been freaking out squared.It was already somewhat freaking out because of the dramatic decline in his Corsi under Eakins last year.

    Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, and Eberle have yet to dominate at even strength under Eakins, like they did under Krueger, and to a lesser extent, under Renney.

    What Krueger accomplished against western teams was decent. The man didn’t deserve to be fired, and neither did Renney. I hated the coaching carousel, and didn’t understand why those two guys were let go. Now that we actually have a coach that one could argue deserves to be fired… it isn’t gonna happen.

  52. anonymous says:

    I’ve been trying to give Eakins another chance but it’s not happening. He’s gotta go, management also. They are the joke of the league, sports for that matter. Any other organization would’ve gotten a good thorough enema long ago. I miss the investors group.

    For the sake of “coaching continuity” they’re going to waste two seasons. Here’s an idea, think I might of heard somewhere, hire an experienced coach and G.M. Assholes.

  53. Ca$h-Money! says:

    G Money:
    Younger Oil,

    I definitely think there is a sticky component to PDO – that is to say a. some bad teams are going to have a low PDO because they are bad, b. some good teams are going to have a high PDO because they are good, c. those numbers are going to have some persistence year to year.

    Parkatti did an analysis that supports that idea:
    http://www.boysonthebus.com/2013/04/16/investigation-into-the-sustainability-of-team-percentages-part-i-pdo/

    My theory would be that PDO Rel would also show the same effect.

    For example, if the ‘Chabot is bad’ theory is correct, then goalies in Edmonton will have a sv% that is persistently below their career sv%, and bingo, an influence pushing towards a persistently poor PDO and also showing up as a persistently poor PDO Rel – at least until that goalie has played enough lousy years for Edmonton that he depresses the “Rel” part!!

    This is correct. PDO is a useful tool for high level analysis, it isn’t really effective beyond that. It’s a tool to say, all things being equal, if I had to bet on which team was likely to get worse/better over the next X games, it would be the top PDO team getting worse and the bottom PDO team getting better.

    The idea that all teams will, over the long term (whatever number of games that is) come down to a PDO of 1 isn’t really the case. Logic tells us that can’t be.

    For example, if the Oilers today were sitting at a PDO of 1 (average), and then traded Fasth straight up for Tuuka Rask, logic tells us we should expect their PDO to go up. There is every reason to believe Rask would post better SV % than Scrivens, and there is no reason to believe having Rask on the team will make our forwards worse at shooting the puck.

  54. sliderule says:

    Woodguy,

    Maybe the oiler jinx is going to end .

    The last two alternate draft picks Nichushkin and Bennett are out for season with major surgeries.

  55. Kmart99 says:

    elgruntus: ”I think Pringles’ original intention was to make tennis balls… but on the day the rubber was supposed to show up a truckload of potatoes came. Pringles is a laid-back company, so they just said, “Fuck it, cut em up!”

    My friend asked if I’d like a frozen banana, I said no, but id like a regular banana later, so yes.

  56. Bank Shot says:

    Hammers:
    Best part was for Acton as he gets out from under his dads linkage . Good Luck . Now we need McT to do something that really matters . Give Eakins that “C” and a better “D” than we have and a true evaluation of Eakins can take place . Problem would still be how he would use 2 actual NHL players ( Please McT ).

    I don’t see how that’s good for Will Acton. He stole half a season worth of NHL pay from the Oilers org.

    I doubt he sees more then another 5 games in his career.

  57. russ99 says:

    frjohnk,

    It’s usually one shot off the rush and right into the cycle or straight into the cycle, even if it’s carried in.

    The problem isn’t all getting a guy in the crease, we also need to use speed and pick movement to create space in good scoring areas. Our top line is more than capable, but we’ve backed off this under Eakins, seemingly to prevent o-zone turnovers and opponent odd man breaks.

  58. spoiler says:

    On the importance of balance:

    When I was 18 I got sick of living there so my friend Tim and I packed up his Volare and moved from Minnesota to Florida.

    We wanted to move to Texas but the front end alignment was bad.

  59. frjohnk says:

    russ99:
    frjohnk,

    It’s usually one shot off the rush and right into the cycle or straight into the cycle, even if it’s carried in.

    The problem isn’t all getting a guy in the crease, we also need to use speed and pick movement to create space in good scoring areas. Our top line is more than capable, but we’ve backed off this under Eakins, seemingly to prevent o-zone turnovers and opponent odd man breaks.

    Oilers still give up too many odd man rushes
    In the end of the 2nd period in the last game it was mentioned “Edmonton has allowed 11 odd man rushes so far in this game”

    Love to see the stats on allowing and creating odd man rushes. Oilers most likely near the top in allowing .

  60. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    With the exception of random fun, I see no reason to bring up Will Acton’s dad.

    There’s no story here.

    1. The story is that MacTavish hasn’t given Eakins enough C depth.

    2. Eakins being a fresh NHL coach was hoping to lean on some familiar faces.

    3. Because of 1, it’s really hard to make a strong case that Will Acton didn’t earn his NHL games on merit vs his competition.

    That’s it. His dad has nothing to do with it.

    It’s a storyline for the blindly aggrieved and the hallmark card writers.

  61. Unicorns says:

    I saw Will Acton’s time with the Oilers as a gift to Keith’s son. Nothing to do with Keith, more the tight knit closed community thing, “once an Oiler”……

  62. Yeti says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Really? Will Acton puts the ‘meh’ in vanilla average. I don’t buy that he particularly earned his games last season nor was he the 13th best forward out of training camp.
    That said, I don’t think it was because of his father that he was in the team. Just a peculiar tendency to make odd decisions about the bottom of the roster.

  63. Ca$h-Money! says:

    My thoughts on Will Acton:

    1. There are 0 wins in Oilers history that I would pin on Will Acton
    2. There are 0 losses in Oilers history that I would pin on Will Acton
    3. He seems like a nice guy.

  64. godot10 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:

    3. Because of 1, it’s really hard to make a strong case that Will Acton didn’t earn his NHL games on merit vs his competition.

    Lander has consistently outperformed Will Acton both this year and last year in OKC. Everything Acton can do, Lander did better in OKC, at EV, on the PP, and on the PK, and in terms of leadership in the last half of last season when the Barons made their dramatic run from hopeless to a playoff spot.

    This was clearly a case of assistant coaches son, and the head coaches pet, over actual merit.

    It is clearly evident in this trade also. Vancouver probably would have much prefered Lander to Acton. The blogosphere would have been appalled if all the Oilers had gotten for Lander were Lain.

    The trade is a patent admission of Acton’s inferiority to Lander, and the playing of favourites over merit by the Oilers.

  65. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Unicorns: I saw Will Acton’s time with the Oilers as a gift to Keith’s son.

    Why can’t you take Eakins’ effusive affection for Will Acton as anything but dissimulation?

    Eakins has given us ample reason to believe him on this. There’s no reason to come up with some nefarious hand-shake such and such.

  66. Lowetide says:

    GD post is up.

  67. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Yeti: I don’t buy that he particularly earned his games last season nor was he the 13th best forward out of training camp.

    godot10: Lander has consistently outperformed Will Acton both this year and last year in OKC.

    Did Lander or did he not shit the bed in both Training Camps?

    Was he good enough in both TCs to make a “strong case” that he was better than Acton?

    Did he not get an extended look, with way better linemates than Acton ever got, over Acton last year?

    This is a simple matter. Acton had an edge with the head coach and outplayed Lander out of both camps.

    godot10: It is clearly evident in this trade also. Vancouver probably would have much prefered Lander to Acton. The blogosphere would have been appalled if all the Oilers had gotten for Lander were Lain.
    The trade is a patent admission of Acton’s inferiority to Lander, and the playing of favourites over merit by the Oilers.

    None of this makes any sense. I’m not sure what Lander has to do with this trade at all. You might as well mention Pitlick or any number of minor prospects the OIlers didn’t just trade.

  68. Lowetide says:

    I’ve always wondered why fans hated Will Acton so much. Eakins spoke at length about Acton’s willingness to do anything, including PK, in order to get more playing time. That sounds like a guy any coach would warm to, and under normal circumstances that player would be a favorite of the fans, too.

    I wish Will Acton well. Betting against him playing another NHL game seems mean spirited, and the entire reaction by Oilers fans strikes me as conspiracy oriented and paranoid.

    Now, if you want to talk Marc Pouliot, WELL……

  69. theres oil in virginia says:

    Lowetide: I’ve always wondered why fans hated Will Acton so much.

    I think it’s simply because the team is losing…a lot.

  70. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide:
    I’ve always wondered why fans hated Will Acton so much. Eakins spoke at length about Acton’s willingness to do anything, including PK, in order to get more playing time. That sounds like a guy any coach would warm to, and under normal circumstances that player would be a favorite of the fans, too.

    I wish Will Acton well. Betting against him playing another NHL game seems mean spirited, and the entire reaction by Oilers fans strikes me as conspiracy oriented and paranoid.

    Now, if you want to talk Marc Pouliot, WELL……

    I think the same folks discounting Will Acton’s NHL future would be flabbergasted to discover the guy he actually replaced (CVDV) has been playing the odd NHL game since leaving the organization.

    Other teams play questionable NHL call-up players in their lineup for all number of reasons too… not just the Oilers.

  71. Unicorns says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Why can’t you take Eakins’ effusive affection for Will Acton as anything but dissimulation?

    Eakins has given us ample reason to believe him on this. There’s no reason to come up with some nefarious hand-shake such and such.

    I don’t think I characterized it that way and didn’t intend to. Nothing nefarious, it’s old boy stuff. As I said it has nothing to do with Keith, it has to do with giving an extended shot to a former teammate’s son and another shot given by an admiring former coach.

    Do I know for sure, no, but I have no issue pointing out what seems like the NHL long established tradition of cronyism. It’s their money, doesn’t matter either way except it didn’t help the team grow. Wish Will all the best.

  72. godot10 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:

    Was he good enough in both TCs to make a “strong case” that he was better than Acton?

    Did he not get an extended look, with way better linemates than Acton ever got, over Acton last year?

    This is a simple matter. Acton had an edge with the head coach and outplayed Lander out of both camps.

    None of this makes any sense. I’m not sure what Lander has to do with this trade at all. You might as well mention Pitlick or any number of minor prospects the OIlers didn’t just trade.

    We are all advanced stats people now.

    Training camps are ridiculously small sample sizes against non-necessarily similar competition. That anyone puts much significance in such a small sample size to make a decisioin between players is a fool.

    In Eakins’ first training camp, Lander did NOT get a fair shot. Acton always played with the guys targeted for the NHL, and Lander with those targeted for the AHL.

    And no, Lander never got a fair shot last year with Eakins when he was called up. He was moved around haphazardly all over the place. A game or two year. A game or two there. He was never utilized in a way to facilitate him succeeding.

    But this isn’t confined to Lander. Look at Draisaitl, Yakupov, Marincin, Schultz….this list of mis-utilized assets under Eakins is a long list.

  73. Bruce McCurdy says:

    godot10: Hall had no eastern conference games in the lockout shortened season. He did last year. Compare apples with apples.

    I guess that’s why he fell from 2nd among Western Conference scorers to 3rd, cuz he got to play games against the East in 2013-14 while none of the other guys in the West did. Oh wait.

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