OILERS AT PREDATORS, G23 2014-15

The Edmonton Oilers didn’t make a trade on their off day, so it’s unlikely we’ll see a deal until the weekend (there’s a game tomorrow, too. Easy prey, no worries). The Oilers play tonight in Nashville, tomorrow in St. Louis and then fly back for a home game on Monday. I think we see a trade before Sunday morning, we’ll see how things roll. The Oilers often make their trades on the road, but there may not be anything out there.

SOMEONE FEEL A DRAFT?

mcdavid

A couple of subtle changes in the Oilers way of doing business appeared yesterday. First, Bob Nicholson speaking up on hockey ops. That’s a major item, although it makes perfect sense (the new head man arrives as a consultant, gets to work on work seemingly outside the central hub—then slowly works his way to the big desk on the top floor). The second item speaks directly to the amateur scouting department:

  • Bob Nicholson“We’re going to have to look at every part of this organization — how we scout, look at players, develop players. The only non-first-round Oilers draft pick since 2007 on the current roster is defenceman Martin Marincin. We need to get more out of those second, third, fourth-round players.” Source.

Absolutely true. Of course, the team didn’t have a second or third-round pick in 2008, rushed their second-round pick (Anton Lander) from 2009 and had an ‘average success rate’ for their 2010 trio* of second round selections (Marincin turned out). They also traded Ryan Martindale for a roster player (Steve Pinizzotto) and of course Tobias Rieder is playing in Arizona. Finally, judging a draft so early (I’ll include 2011+) is folly. *Scott Cullen’s TSN study showed a 28% success rate for second-round picks (‘success being 100 NHL games).

It’s important not to jump to conclusions, but it’s also true the verbal frames Edmonton’s amateur scouting staff in the most negative light possible. You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.

 JULTZ!

schultz common3

A change in the weather for Justin Schultz this week. He was the main culprit on  the first Seguin goal and Dallas Eakins finally decided his own survival was more important than feeding the young man minutes. I’m not sure what the Oilers had to promise Schultz to get him here, but have been saying for ages that Jeff Petry and Mark Fayne should be playing more at evens.

The callup of Oscar Klefbom yesterday suggests someone might be sitting, and maybe the club will try Niki Nikitin on the RH side. HS Jultz? Could happen.

cat mirror

WHERE IS YOUR CORSI NOW?

Make no mistake, this is an execution issue. This season’s Oilers are free-range Corgi’s, dancing about and having a real good time. War-on-Ice has the Fenwick (all) at 51% (No. 14 in the NHL) and Corsi is 51.68% (No. 11 in the NHL). PDO?? 96.14, worst in the NHL. They are out shooting opponents 30.2 to 30.

LE BARONS

yakimov ferguson 1415

Bogdan Yakimov had a strong third period last night, picking up a couple of apples. He has three assists in his last three games and seems to be coming around after this injury. Yakimov’s speed is the thing, if he can get some torque there’s an NHL player there. When we talk about the Oilers drafting, I do think MacT brought some urgency to the process and Yakimov might be an actual player. Laurent Brossoit is also trending well, he’s sporting a .918SP this morning, and that Pakarinen kid is probably ready for the NHL. The farm team has some nice things. Seriously.

 

OILERS DEFENSE IN A BOX, 2014-15

PLAYER BOXCARS PROJ14-15 CORSI FOR % OZ STARTS 5X5 PER 60
KEITH AULIE 8, 0-0-0 68, 0-0-0 54.46 44.8 0.00
JEFF PETRY 21, 1-2-3 81, 4-8-12 52.97 42.7 0.39
OSCAR KLEFBOM 2, 0-0-0 52.86 50.0 0.00
JUSTIN SCHULTZ 22, 2-8-10 82, 7-30-37 51.37 62.5 1.05
ANDREW FERENCE 19, 1-1-2 79, 4-4-8 50.88 40.6 0.44
MARTIN MARINCIN 12, 0-1-1 72, 0-6-6 50.15 48.5 0.43
NIKITA NIKITIN 18, 1-3-4 78, 4-13-17 49.15 56.4 0.45
MARK FAYNE 22, 1-3-4 82, 4-11-15 47.74 45.9 0.68

Some of these numbers are after 19 games, Vollman and War-On-Ice haven’t updated for a few games (BTN as well). There are some good things here, but  when people say ‘the Oilers could learn some things from the Flames’ they’re absolutely right. Example? Dear Oilers, your best defenseman will be a free agent in the summer and you’re probably going to trade him. Yeah.

  • Jeff Petry has the toughest zone start and delivers a nice Corsi for and decent offense (no one is scoring well on this list).
  • Andrew Ference is also having a very nice season. He doesn’t seem to be getting credit for that, but the numbers say it is so.
  • Martin Marincin rebounded nicely over the 7-12 games, he’s over 50% CF.
  • They need to play Mark Fayne more.
  • Justin Schultz has lost his confidence, and that’s an issue. He’s a wobbly go when things are going well.
  • Niki Nikitin is just starting to turn the corner back to health, that isn’t reflected in the numbers above.

If they do rest Jultz, I’d like to see:

  • Marincin-Petry
  • Ference-Nikitin
  • Klefbom-Fayne

godfather1

I trust Craig MacTavish to keep his powder dry if a deal isn’t there, but am uncertain if we can trust the team’s evaluation of talent. Jeff Petry is close to free agency, and his money was spent on Niki Nikitin. How do we come to terms with this? The biggest news of this day is that Bob Nicholson is moving his chess pieces and the end game may be underway. Is this Daryl Katz being passive aggressive? Or is this the very beginning of the scene that ends with ‘leave the gun, bring the cannoli’?

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

marisa

At 10 this morning, we hit the airwaves on TSN 1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Dennis King, Oilogosphere Icon. We’ll talk about the future and the past.
  • Matt Henderson, Hockeybuzz and Oilers Nation. New hire at the Nation, we’ll go inside these trade rumors.
  • JR Lind, Nashville Post. Preds have an offense. Hide the children!
  • Jeff Hauser, Radio Hauser. A lot of NFL talk, probably an Eagles-Cowboys question here or there.

10-1260 on text, @Lowetide_ on twitter. It’s going to be a fun day, and of course if anything breaks we’ll be talking about it.

 

 

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

424 Responses to "OILERS AT PREDATORS, G23 2014-15"

« Older Comments
  1. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    I never thought I’d ever say I want Nick Schultz back but Nikita Nikitin is making me pine for the return of Schultz and his infamous break outs consisting of going behind the net, putting his head down,and slapping a hundred mile and hour shot around the boards down the ice for icing.

    I know that exact play you reference, but no way that slapshot is going a tick over 68 miles an hour. You are talking about Nick Schultz, right?

  2. G Money says:

    Woodguy,

    So what you’re saying is … with Schultz scratched the Oilers somehow put up 37 shots despite Nikitin’s rank incompetence and got a point, so add Nikitin to the scratch list and the Oilers win?

  3. Adam Wu says:

    RicaGreaser:
    Adam Wu,

    Not the same result psychologically at all. Lost season standings-wise for sure, but let them at LEAST get to the skills lottery and feel that in the team hockey component of the game they acquitted themselves well enough not to lose the game.

    That’s what Sports Psychologists are for!

    To bad there aren’t any Fan Psychologists, though.

    Edmonton would be a ripe market….

  4. jake70 says:

    I thought Nuge had the game on his stick with that steal at the blue line, almost Pisani-game 5-like, but shot high to glove side, sigh. (glove side high only works on Oiler goalies)

  5. Yeti says:

    jake70: (glove side high only works on Oiler goalies)

    Yes, but that’s who they practice against! 🙂

  6. Woodguy says:

    G Money:
    Woodguy,

    So what you’re saying is … with Schultz scratched the Oilers somehow put up 37 shots despite Nikitin’s rank incompetence and got a point, so add Nikitin to the scratch list and the Oilers win?

    Given the number of times offensive sorties died due to Nikitin, it think it’s fair to assume addition by subtraction.

    Who knows if one goes in the net, but I bet it would have been more probable, especially 5v4.

  7. PhrankLee says:

    Watching the interviews several times over the last few days and I believe we finally have more guys pissed off than embarrassed.
    Respect is such a big part of the way a team prepares for a game. The power play has to earn that. I would take a Simmer PP over this mess. Double hard for the 5×4 squad to dig out of the hole with the entire league in on how to defend us. Good squads get respect but we get bumrushed by every team because they know under intense NHL pressure we cough up the puck. Obviously they are instructed not to dump it in and carry it under control. But that has not been working. At all. The only immensely pitiable part of our game last night was our PP. Scoring at 5×5 remains just out of reach.

  8. Kmart99 says:

    Bling:
    Excellent effort.

    Now — Marincin in and Nikitin out, and maybe get Pakarinen in for Gadzic.

    Seems obvious

  9. MenovOil says:

    HOW? How does Nikitin play 25 fucking minutes? This is what is so frustrating about this team, are they doing it by desing (IE Tanking) or is Eakins that fucking stupid?!?

    Argh, so frustrating.

  10. PhrankLee says:

    Pouzar:
    Yak. Misses. Again.

    Someone please convince Yak to change his number. I cannot experience another #10 missing the wide open net every game.

  11. Kmart99 says:

    If ever a team deserved some luck, last night was the night.
    If the oilers repeat that effort every game, the losses will be far and few between.
    It was nice to finally see few odd man rushes and a well defended zone entry( for the most part)

    For the second time this year, I thought the system being played was effective in all three zones, as was the effort.
    But man, were we still getting a little cute on some good scoring chances. *EBERLE*

  12. sliderule says:

    The goal was mostly on Hall and coaches.

    Got caught out on a too long shift and stood frozen while play swirled around him in own zone.

    The coaches can’t let players do this.

  13. Kmart99 says:

    sliderule:
    The last goal was mostly on Hall and coaches.

    Got caught out on a too long shift and stood frozen while play swirled around him in own zone.

    The coaches can’t let players do this.

    NN slipped on a banana(stick) and it was game over. Like Eakins said ” If Hall had changed on that back check it would’ve looked dreadful. They put their heads down and hustled back.”

    I blame NN for stepping on that stick. The rest is history. When you’re that tired and in your own end, you can’t think, you cant see straight, and you’re just praying for an icing and a time out.
    Sure Hall was the final culprit, but it’s hard to blame someone that tired.

  14. Kmart99 says:

    PhrankLee: Someone please convince Yak to change his number. I cannot experience another #10 missing the wide open net every game.

    How does this kid not bury these chances. Goodness.

    I know the right thing to do is send Drain back. But he and ARCO have been upgrades on Smyth and Gags from last year, no question.
    Last night, both teams ran into a hot goaltender, theirs turned out to be slightly hotter.
    Tonight is going to be a horror show against STL.

  15. Pouzar says:

    Kmart99: How does this kid not bury these chances. Goodness. I know the right thing to do is send Drain back. But he and ARCO have been upgrades on Smyth and Gags from last year, no question.Last night, both teams ran into a hot goaltender, theirs turned out to be slightly hotter.Tonight is going to be a horror show against STL.

    It’s frustrating and he’s a number 1 overall pick and yadda yadda but man he is miles better.
    I am his biggest critic here and even I think those shots will start to find their way in.

    As far as last night goes, I was only able to watch the last game but it was nice to see and even distribution of play. No BS or lollygagging. Just a good NHL hockey game. But alas Schultz will draw in and drag down the rest of the team in his vortex of suck. The obvious move that won’t happen? Bench NN for MM and keep Schultz in the trunk of LT’s ’86 Grand Prix. Let us pray.

  16. hags9k says:

    NN with 25 mins. MM scratched. Can there be any doubt now that the tank is on?

    I for one feel strangely relieved. Like we are back to the comfort of the status quo.

    Bomb’er for Conner baby.

  17. sliderule says:

    Kmart99,

    That’s all true but Hall was on the end of shift when puck was in oil possession.

    That was the time to change.

    The shifts have to be short 4on4 as there is no place to hide.

  18. Ice Sage says:

    The Oilers played a fine game against one of the most balanced teams in the league.

    It’s only one game but benching an underperforming ‘core’ player seems to have sent a message. Who knew… players like to play and can play hard!

  19. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Bruce McCurdy: I know that exact play you reference, but no way that slapshot is going a tick over 68 miles an hour. You are talking about Nick Schultz, right?

    Sorry Bruce,
    I should have said one hundred kilometres an hour…not one hundred miles per hour.
    Damn auto correct…

  20. knighttown says:

    I’m not sure you could say the Gords were cruel to the Oil last night. They played well for sure but I wouldn’t say they were unlucky. Ference 100% took away a goal and they hit 3 posts at least. Don’t recall the oilers with anything quite so near miss.

  21. "Frank The Dog" says:

    Nobody was cruel to the oilers last night. Eberle and Perron aren’t themselves, we’re missing Pouliot, Leon is growing into his role fast but wasn’t a legit scoring 2C (yet) last night, and Arco is a gutsy sustainable replacement player, and the system being used obviously doesn’t make the most of the players they have available. It’s either D and not O or neither.

    But, do we really need another goalie, or was it just a goalie coach? I suspect the latter.
    Do we really need Schultz on this team? Why not scratch Nikitin and play MM?
    With Leon growing as fast as he is into the role do we really need to give up parts for a 2C? Maybe yes if Leon stays on wing.

    In which case was Perron leaving the game early due to injury or a trade?

    We wait…

  22. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Klima’s_Bucket: Sorry Bruce,
    I should have said one hundred kilometres an hour…not one hundred miles per hour.
    Damn auto correct…

    OK, now I’m buying what you’re selling.

  23. fuzzy muppet says:

    This is what, game 24, and they willingly still haven’t iced their best possible lineup.

    It’s Hard to be positive about the powers that be.

« Older Comments

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca