IN THE NHL TO STAY

The Edmonton Oilers sent Martin Marincin to Oklahoma City today, signalling the arrival (to stay) of Oscar Klefbom. The young Swede offers the club a more physical player while still managing to be very mobile. There are going to be growing pains, but it’s good that management has finally settled on their choice of young blue to play in the NHL for 2014-15.

Where does that leave Marincin? Probably out in the cold, unless Klefbom struggles or there is an injury. I’ve long felt that the club values Klefbom and Nurse as their template for the future on defense, and today’s move only serves to confirm the view. Marincin could be trade bait down the line, but for now he’s insurance for injury. The club might see fit to have a look again in the fall of 2015 but it’s also possible Marincin is shuffled off to another NHL city in the next few months.

It’s worth mentioning that Martin Marincin is a better NHL defenseman than Niki Nikitin, if that’s ever a topic of conversation.

pinizzotto ferguson 1415

It’s the same story for Steve Pinizzotto today, as the Oilers waived Jesse Joensuu for the purpose of assignment (Europe or OKC). This is a good story, a minor league veteran who hung around and worked hard before finally making the grade a decade later than the kids who were better on draft day. Pinizzotto outplayed Joensuu in camp too, so this is justice being served.

Edmonton now has two (by my count) open spots for additions

  • Goal (2) Ben Scrivens, Viktor Fasth
  • Defense (7) Jeff Petry, Mark Fayne, Andrew Ference, Justin Schultz, Niki Nikitin, Keith Aulie, Oscar Klefbom
  • Center (4) Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl, Boyd Gordon, Mark Arcobello
  • Left Wing (4) Taylor Hall, David Perron, Matt Hendricks, Luke Gazdic
  • Right Wing (4) Jordan Eberle, Teddy Purcell, Nail Yakupov, Steve Pinizzotto

We might want to follow the waiver/trade/callup wire today.

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116 Responses to "IN THE NHL TO STAY"

  1. KSC10032 says:

    Given the baseball style terminology used (purpose of assignment), it may well be a European team, perhaps as a favour to the kid for being a good soldier.

    Lander remains the most logical callup, as he is more suited to the “utility infielder” role than anyone else in OKC.

  2. Pouzar says:

    Is Hendricks ok?

    I don’t think anything else happens.

  3. Ben says:

    This Anisimov thing is strange. It’s not clear when or how he sustained his mysterious, non-concussion upper-body injury. He’s announced out of the BJ lineup tomorrow night. This coincides neatly with Dubinsky’s return to the lineup. And the Oilers suddenly have a couple of free roster spots.

    Then again, the inside of my garage is covered in clippings of Matheson articles, spangled all about with conspiracy-outlining pins and string.

  4. Mr DeBakey says:

    It’s worth mentioning that Martin Marincin is a better NHL defenseman than Niki Nikitin, if that’s ever a topic of conversation.

    Dumb assholes
    That’s why I haven’t watched a full Oiler game in two seasons.
    And am watching less all the time.
    I’m more of an Oiler-blog fan than Oiler fan these days.

  5. Big Dan says:

    What happened to joensuu? He was so awesome early. Did he hurt his back again?

    I am hoping for some positivity added. Stafford, who has always dreamt of wearing the oiler drop, for purcell?

    Maybe Weiss, who lost his 2c spot after an injury, for nikitin? Bad contract for bad contract. Detroit has a way of turning these written off d around. (Also, I don’t think marincin is going anywhere. Some Time in the ahl may help him just like it did for klefbom.)

    I’d like to see an eberle for Myers swap, with other names (grigorenko, lander, Stafford, Schultz, picks…). Call me crazy! I’d rather trade Perron (only because of his contract, I love the guy) than Eberle but you have to give to get. If eberle is dealt, work on an extension for Perron. His comments were bang on, we need more of that fire. Perrons comments about wanting to be here for a playoff run and hearing the horn were great. Eberle just doesn’t seem to give a crap anymore after so much losing- he needs a change.

    Mact is learning a 25 min d who provides solid yet unspectacular minutes don’t grow on trees. Schultz has been a colossal failure. Deal him before everyone else noticed how lazy he is. Myers is a huge upgrade until the likes of klefbom and nurse are ready for big minutes.

  6. Lowetide says:

    Chris Wescott ‏@TheChrisWescott 18s19 seconds ago

    #Oilers Hendricks (leg) is not skating this morning

    Adding more fuel to the transaction pile. Oilers play tomorrow night, so would need to recall someone today.

  7. Big Dan says:

    Mr DeBakey:
    It’s worth mentioning that Martin Marincin is a better NHL defenseman than Niki Nikitin, if that’s ever a topic of conversation.

    Dumb assholes
    That’s why I haven’t watched a full Oiler game in two seasons.
    And am watching less all the time.
    I’m more of an Oiler-blog fan than Oiler fan these days.

    Me too!

  8. Oddspell says:

    If it’s a trade then it’s worth mentioning that either they need two spaces because they’re trading a non-roster piece and getting two roster pieces, they need two spots because Hendricks is okay (or miraculously Pouliot) OR they need two spots because we’re getting two more roster pieces back than we’re sending. A 10 for 8? Nah. Maybe it’s a 7 for 5? still too much?

    Maybe something like (I don’t know) a 3 for 1?

    But in all seriousness I don’t get why they’d waive Joensuu unless they needed all the spots.

    edit: Wait, we’re supposed to be the ones getting the 1 in that mythical trade aren’t we? Crap!

  9. Hammers says:

    Not getting Myers but you may see some kind of blockbuster move with say Philly . Right now for me there are only 2 teams more pissed off than the Oilers . Columbus & Philly with Washington as the next . Is it possible for a Petry , Marincin , Perron trade for either Braden Schenn & Coburn or Ansiminov & Tyutin . McT needs something to at least let his young group think there trying to get better or change the overall mix . . Before the season started even most die-hard fans had us out of the playoffs but not Columbus & Philly . How do there fans feel right now .

  10. letmycamerongo says:

    So Marty is not part of the Oilers plans, because wouldn’t that just be too easy. So why not tell the rest of the league he’s no good send him back to the AHL, and never get a return for him.

  11. leadfarmer says:

    Hopefully it’s Schultz, Nikitin and Purcell to Siberia for a Russian stacking doll and cap space

  12. EternalFrost says:

    I still think Marincin will be back. He’s not as confident as he was last year. Top pairing minute in OKC should help with that.

  13. Oddspell says:

    Hammers,

    If this is a trade I don’t think it involves Marty. Why send him down for the roster spot if you’re about to free up his spot by shipping him out?

    Wouldn’t be surprised if it was Klefbom to be honest. OKC was getting scouted pretty heavily prior to his call up. Klefbom + Perron package has to be worth something. Then again, I’ve never once called a trade so I could be crazy.

    That said, Klefbom looks so good that I think he’d be more valuable by the end of the season on the roster than anybody he could return right now.

  14. Yeti says:

    “It’s the same story for Steve Pinizzotto today, as the Oilers waived Jesse Joensuu for the purpose of assignment (Europe or OKC). This is a good story, a minor league veteran who hung around and worked hard before finally making the grade a decade later than the kids who were better on draft day. Pinizzotto outplayed Joensuu in camp too, so this is justice being served.”

    Perhaps. But Joensuu played well, and of all the problems this team faced, the Gordon-Joensuu-Hendricks (see what I did there) line was not one of them. It’s borderline criminal to have Gazdic around when you could have useful players to switch in out (ie. Pinizzotto and Joensuu).

    Of course, if Pinizzotto was Pinizzuttuu – the Fearsome Fiend of Finland – we’d all be far happier.

  15. Henry says:

    Have to expect that we will see Pakirainen again next week.

    I like that Pinizzotto has made the most of his shot. I also like that they gave him a shot.

  16. RexLibris says:

    If we assume that Petry doesn’t re-sign here this summer, and that Nikitin is probably a good bet for a buy-out, and factor in a likely reduced role for Ference as I think the captaincy moves to Hall or Nugent-Hopkins next season, then it would be insanity to move Marincin or Klefbom in a trade now.

    Next season’s defense then consists of Fayne and Schultz.

    The blueline simply cannot absorb that many losses.

    I think Marincin is going down to continue playing because they are going to let Nikita Nikitin bury Scott Howson’s credibility (maybe not their true motives, but the end result may be the same thing) and give Petry a chance to either prove to management that he deserves a new contract or prove to other GMs that he is worth a nice price on the open market. We know they are going to play Schultz until the tread comes off the tires and Aulie will continue to be virtually the only defenseman used in an appropriate role – sparingly and in a complementary support role.

    I’m freaking out about the Oilers trading Marincin, just as many here are, because I see a young player who could be a tremendously solid, dependable young defenseman for years to come. However, I’d be more ticked about him sitting in the pressbox for the next five games than going to OKC and playing a boatload of minutes under Nelson.

    It spells off Oesterle and Simpson from the big minutes for a few games and could help other developing blue like Gernat and Musil.

    We all spoke a few years back about how much we like Tambellini’s statements of getting rid of the stigma of the AHL as a demotion, and how it should be looked at as a positive to continue development.

    We can’t go back on that sentiment when it is being used approximately in those terms (I say approximately because I think Marincin has been ill-served by assignments earlier this season, but not necessarily in this case).

    In a just and fair world Nikitin and Schultz would sit while Klefbom and Marincin would play. Unfortunately this is the NHL where player suspensions are determined according to the injury of the victim and the salary cap hit of the accused and where media are free to use vague and pejorative generalizations to discuss the work ethic of many foreign-born players.

    Are we freaked out because MacTavish has made boneheaded moves in the past or because he hasn’t made one yet?

  17. Ray says:

    The oil have always liked to make unpopular moves when the news desks have something else to focus on or when no one is watching. I fear Perron, Eberle, or Yak are on the way out the door in a couple hours. Maybe after half time.

  18. Lowetide says:

    I think Perron is a strong candidate for trade.

  19. teddyturnbuckle says:

    Hall, Nuge and Eberle tied for 80th in league scoring today. This is a big reason why the Oilers can’t get any traction. We are a one line team that isn’t producing enough. Meanwhile young players like Seguin, Tarasenko, Ryan Johansen and Forsberg all haunt us in the top 20.

  20. Ray says:

    Lowetide,

    If you can’t get the quality back for him that you want, is the next step (if a trade is a must) to go for quantity? A 3c and a young checking winger prospect is what the return looks like to me.

  21. OilClog says:

    Marincin is better then Jultz, true story.

  22. Pouzar says:

    OilClog:
    Marincin is better then Jultz, true story.

    It matters not. Schultz chose us.

  23. oilleak2014 says:

    Here we go again the oilers brass are in turmOIL who do we trade ?who do we send down ?who do we sit ? blah! blah! blah! man they wrote the book on the definition of insanity. I have been a an oiler fan since day one and always will be (1979) this is the first year and many that I am absolutely beside myself ABOUT THSI TEAM. Tell me one thing Hartley in Calgary is down 3 centres and he still ices and coaches a team that wins. No it is not all Eakins fault but he took the job and is obviously failing. maybe it is time to see his little pretty boy Ference should be a number 5 or 6 instead of his number one golden boy Sorry guys had to vent

  24. Woodguy says:

    Aaron Portzline @Aportzline · 2h 2 hours ago
    #CBJ Artem Anisimov will not play on Monday vs. Florida. But Richards said it is not a concussion.

    Also,

    Marty played 3 games in his latest call up.

    Nov 21, 22, and 25.

    Here’s his raw corsi and RelCor in those three games:

    Nov 21 vs NJD

    Cor = 93.75% (not a typo. amazing)
    RelCor = +40.63% (ridiculous)
    Rank 1 of 6 among D

    Nov 22 vs CHI

    Cor = 54.84%
    RelCor = +3.68%
    Rank 4 of 6 among D

    Nov 25 vs DAL

    Cor = 62.96%
    RelCor = +12.96%
    Rank 1 of 6 among D

    Then scratched.

    Then sent down.

    Fuck these people.

    They deserve their results.

    It looks like according to the Edmonton Oilers the NHL is not a league where you play your best players because of politics and contracts.

    Looks like for all the fancy stats bullshit that MacT spews it actually doesn’t penetrate the Kingsway bunker.

    He actually had the gall to call the Oilers a leader in analytics.

    Hiring a consulting company that was not a hockey analytics company is not being a leader.

    Crowd sourcing a draft model via fan contest is not being a leader.

    Using that draft model, then ignoring what it spits out to draft Liam Coughlin and Keven Bouchard is not being a leader. (I don’t have confirmation of this, but there is no way on gord’s green earth any model spit out those players. None.)

    The coach having to make his own analytics hire because the org has no interest in having a standings analytics staff is not being a leader.

    Typical Oilers.

    “If I say something, it must be true”

    There is only one positive and that’s Marincin will play lots and not sit in a press box.

  25. hoser313 says:

    When is it time to start playing to win?

    There needs to be a culture change that the best players draw into the line-up and the lines playing best get the most ice time.

    These mini try-outs need to stop.

    If Nikitin was injured, could he not have gone to OKC for a conditioning stint?

    Joensuu looked best playing with Hendricks and Gordon imho.

    Why are Julz and Nikitin a pair?

    Don’t think a trade is the answer. Doubt you could get a significant upgrade on Arco without paying an exorbitant price.

  26. teddyturnbuckle says:

    In Oil Change I remember Ralph Krueger saying that they were going to stick with Yak and Justin no matter what. That came from the top obviously and its that kind of entitlement that has gotten the Oilers where they are. Neither player is a positive impact today.

  27. bsmart says:

    Hey woodguy I like your avatar picture with the stressed out Alfred Hitchcock looking guy. The image is a microcosm of what it means to be a fan of the oilers.

  28. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy:
    Aaron Portzline @Aportzline·2h 2 hours ago
    #CBJ Artem Anisimov will not play on Monday vs. Florida. But Richards said it is not a concussion.

    Also,

    Marty played 3 games in his latest call up.

    Nov 21, 22, and 25.

    Here’s his raw corsi and RelCor in those three games:

    Nov 21 vs NJD

    Cor = 93.75% (not a typo.amazing)
    RelCor = +40.63% (ridiculous)
    Rank 1 of 6 among D

    Nov 22 vs CHI

    Cor = 54.84%
    RelCor = +3.68%
    Rank 4 of 6 among D

    Nov 25 vs DAL

    Cor = 62.96%
    RelCor = +12.96%
    Rank 1 of 6 among D

    Then scratched.

    Then sent down.

    Fuck these people.

    They deserve their results.

    It looks like according to the Edmonton Oilers the NHL is not a league where you play your best players because of politics and contracts.

    Looks like for all the fancy stats bullshit that MacT spews it actually doesn’t penetrate the Kingsway bunker.

    He actually had the gall to call the Oilers a leader in analytics.

    Hiring a consulting company that was not a hockey analytics companyis not being a leader.

    Crowd sourcing a draft model via fan contest is not being a leader.

    Using that draft model, then ignoring what it spits out to draft Liam Coughlin and Keven Bouchard is not being a leader.(I don’t have confirmation of this, but there is no way on gord’s green earth any model spit out those players. None.)

    The coach having to make his own analytics hire because the org has no interest in having a standings analytics staff is not being a leader.

    Typical Oilers.

    “If I say something, it must be true”

    There is only one positive and that’s Marincin will play lots and not sit in a press box.

    THIS IS WHY I AM DONE.

    Thank you WG

  29. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Pouzar: THIS IS WHY I AM DONE.

    Thank you WG

    This is why I am still around. Because Woodguy.

  30. G Money says:

    Woodguy: Nov 21 vs NJD
    Cor = 93.75% (not a typo. amazing)
    RelCor = +40.63% (ridiculous)
    Rank 1 of 6 among D
    Nov 22 vs CHI
    Cor = 54.84%
    RelCor = +3.68%
    Rank 4 of 6 among D
    Nov 25 vs DAL
    Cor = 62.96%
    RelCor = +12.96%
    Rank 1 of 6 among D

    Sent down.

    Wow.

    Just wow.

    I’m on the verge of going full dee ess eff.

  31. Bruce McCurdy says:

    I did attend the Hawks game & Corsi aside (which meant nothing in that game anyway) Marincin had a truly miserable time of it. Consistency is definitely an issue.

  32. Woodguy says:

    G Money: Sent down.

    Wow.

    Just wow.

    I’m on the verge of going full dee ess eff.

    Scratched after being 1st in RelCor vs DAL was awesome.

  33. Woodguy says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    I did attend the Hawks game & Corsi aside (which meant nothing in that game anyway) Marincin had a truly miserable time of it. Consistency is definitely an issue.

    I agree with that.

    And Niktin keeps getting thrown over the boards.

    Its never about playing their best players with the Oilers.

    There’s always so many more issues that meddle with it.

  34. Woodguy says:

    Bruce McCurdy: This is why I am still around. Because Woodguy.

    That’s a bit much sir.

  35. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide:
    I think Perron is a strong candidate for trade.

    Now, I didn’t see or hear Perron’s comments on the Draisaitl pass into his feet the other night, but I read of them here and believe I got the basic gist of it, so my apologies if I’m misinterpreting things here but…

    It really ticked me off that he’d criticize his 18 year-old linemate for throwing him a pass through multiple players that resulted in a goal from a prime scoring position.

    If he was ticked about it, take it up with the kid (still a pretty BS move in my opinion) but to complain about it in an interview? Perron brings some great things on the ice, and perhaps we’re talking about frustration following another loss, but if that is the case he needs to direct it appropriately, not at someone who just assisted on his 3rd goal in 24 games.

  36. russ99 says:

    Just awful.

    Every roster move these guys make is edging me closer and closer to thinking that we need new people in to make the vital roster decisions when it comes to moving core players and that if unchecked, they’ll mess things up to epic proportions.

    MacT very obviously has his favorites and that’s a rotten way to run a hockey club.

    These guys deserve every loss coming to them, but I feel bad for the players put in this untenable position.

  37. G Money says:

    Just for shits and giggles, same stats for Double Agent N:

    (these are 5×5; WGs first set of numbers for the NJD game were all situations, doesn’t change much except the ridiculous RelCor becomes even more ridiculous, so I’ve adjusted)

    MM 5×5 NJD: Corsi 92.9%, RelCor +45.6%, 1 of 6
    NN NJD: Corsi 32%, RelCor -42%, 6 of 6

    NN CHI: Did not play

    NN DAL: Corsi 61%, RelCor +11.7, 2 of 6

  38. Dicky94 says:

    Get the feeling there is a trade a comin. Sweet trade by the Blue Jays yesterday also. Maybe Alex A will come help the Oilers with there mess.

  39. Ice Sage says:

    teddyturnbuckle: In Oil Change I remember Ralph Krueger saying that they were going to stick with Yak and Justin no matter what. That came from the top obviously and its that kind of entitlement that has gotten the Oilers where they are. Neither player is a positive impact today.

    Man wouldn’t ‘Oil Change’ this year be (even more) Kafka-esque? I kinda miss that pig-lipsticking, PVR-clogging comedy.

  40. Woodguy says:

    Oiler’s 5v5 Zone Start Adjusted CF% among D as per stats.hockeyalaysis.com

    KLEFBOM, OSCAR 54.5
    PETRY, JEFF 52.9
    AULIE, KEITH 52.5
    MARINCIN, MARTIN 51.9
    HUNT, BRAD 51
    FAYNE, MARK 49.2
    SCHULTZ, JUSTIN 48.9
    NIKITIN, NIKITA 48.5
    FERENCE, ANDREW 48.3

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ratings.php?db=201415&sit=f10&type=corsi&teamid=12&pos=defense&minutes=50&disp=1&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC

    “I think we are leaders in analytics” – MacT

    Note: I know there’s more to analytics than what someone’s CF is (even ZS% adjusted CF) ,but you can’t help but to laugh when you see this.

    2nd best is FA

    4th best is on the farm.

    Bottom 3 will all be here next year, and two of them the year after that.

    “I think we are leaders in analytics”

    Man.

  41. godot10 says:

    The Oilers are now making Marincin a flight risk to the KHL on a one year deal (a la Yakupov) to force a trade.

    When you are clearly one of the six best D on the team, getting sent to the AHL suggests one should get paid in the KHL to wait to be traded, rather than earn peanuts in the AHL.

  42. The Great Gazoo says:

    RexLibris: It really ticked me off that he’d criticize his 18 year-old linemate for throwing him a pass through multiple players that resulted in a goal from a prime scoring position.

    I just found the vid on the Oilers website. What Perron said:

    I saw Leon look at me, and he saw me all the way.

    It’s funny, it wasn’t the greatest pass – kind of put it in my skates.

    But regardless I was wide open in the slot – nice play by him.

  43. book¡je says:

    MacT is rational with regards to assessing about 80% of players, but he falls in love with 10% of players who don’t deserve it (Schultz, Toby Peterson, etc.) and has a strong dislike for 10% of players who deserve better (such as Marincin). This harmed him as a coach and is devastating when managing an NHL team in a competitive environment. It sucks.

    Lowe and MacT think that you can develop players by throwing them into the NHL. Sometimes this works, but a more successful way is to bring them along slowly by dominating each league and then easing them into harder roles at the NHL level.

    and you know what the worst thing is…

    You know the solution is going to be to hand things over to Bob Nicholson and Mark Messier which probably means that rebuild number 4 is going to be as crappy as rebuild number 3.

  44. Woodguy says:

    G Money,

    WGs first set of numbers for the NJD game were all situations

    Oops, good catch.

  45. Woodguy says:

    godot10:
    The Oilers are now making Marincin a flight risk to the KHL on a one year deal (a la Yakupov) to force a trade.

    When you are clearly one of the six best D on the team, getting sent to the AHL suggests one should getpaid in the KHL to wait to be traded, rather than earn peanuts in the AHL.

    Too many teams want him.

    He’s the most asked about Oiler among other GM’s.

    He’ll get traded before he flies.

  46. Ice Sage says:

    Speaking of propaganda – the braintrust should unveil new third jerseys with the word ‘DROPS’ on the front (a la horrific ‘BOLTS’ or ‘SENS’) – a ‘let them eat cake’ moment for Darryl XVI.

    Me like football now

  47. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Howdy, folks. I’ve been avoiding these parts a bit while watching the tire fire’s tire fire go Chernobyl the past week. Trying to keep my sanity as I watch management shoot themselves in the foot repeatedly.

    I was no optimist prior to the start of this season, but I did think the worst was behind this team. I was, apparently, very wrong. Why they haven’t addressed anything and left Eakins twisting in the wind talking to the media alone is beyond me.

    Why they talked themselves into Leon and MM is beyond me.

    Woodguy, congrats on the guest grading of game scores at Cult of Hockey. It’s a nice honor and well deserved.

  48. Woodguy says:

    Katz: “Its exciting to make the first overall pick.”

    Katz: ” Its not like we want to pick first every year mind you”

    Group: *laughs*

    Oil Change season 1 episode 1 before the Taylor Hall draft 5 years ago.

  49. smellyglove says:

    Woodguy:
    Katz: “Its exciting to make the first overall pick.”

    Katz: ” Its not like we want to pick first every year mind you”

    Group: *laughs*

    Oil Change season 1 episode 1 before the Taylor Hall draft 5 years ago.

    Woodguy,

    Katz is the worst thing to ever happen to the Edmonton Oilers.

  50. GotUkulele says:

    Woodguy:
    Katz: “Its exciting to make the first overall pick.”

    Katz: ” Its not like we want to pick first every year mind you”

    Group: *laughs*

    Oil Change season 1 episode 1 before the Taylor Hall draft 5 years ago.

    Is that a real quote??

  51. AZOIL says:

    Woodguy,

    In the last thread you mentioned our PDO is historically low. Is that just bad luck and the real slim shady will soon stand up? Or is that us playing for puck possession along the perimeter and these players are scared to go into the middle and score. With the snipers we have it doesn’t seem normal and something has to give?

  52. thejonrmcleod says:

    Woodguy,

    So we’re not getting McDavid?

  53. GotUkulele says:

    I’ve been following your trade predictions since mid-2008, Lowetide.

    I hope one day you’re right! Heh

    Although you usually seem to predict a trade whenever it would be great if there was one/should be one. Anyone else would fail just as much as that the way the last six years have played out…

  54. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Woodguy: That’s a bit much sir.

    Today you’re the poster boy for the general excellence of the dialogue here, which feeds my passion as a fan more than the actual hockey does these days. Of course you are not alone in that group, which requires a critical mass of massive critics.

  55. Bruce McCurdy says:

    RexLibris: Now, I didn’t see or hear Perron’s comments on the Draisaitl pass into his feet the other night, but I read of them here and believe I got the basic gist of it, so my apologies if I’m misinterpreting things here but…

    It really ticked me off that he’d criticize his 18 year-old linemate for throwing him a pass through multiple players that resulted in a goal from a prime scoring position.

    If he was ticked about it, take it up with the kid (still a pretty BS move in my opinion) but to complain about it in an interview? Perron brings some great things on the ice, and perhaps we’re talking about frustration following another loss, but if that is the case he needs to direct it appropriately, not at someone who just assisted on his 3rd goal in 24 games.

    It wasn’t after another loss, it was a between-periods interview with Oilers leading 2-1.

  56. frjohnk says:

    Just looking at the schedule coming up.

    Mon, 1 Dec 2014 Coyotes Oilers
    Wed, 3 Dec 2014 Oilers Jets
    Sun, 7 Dec 2014 Sharks Oilers
    Tue, 9 Dec 2014 Oilers Sharks
    Wed, 10 Dec 2014 Oilers Ducks
    Fri, 12 Dec 2014 Ducks Oilers
    Sun, 14 Dec 2014 Rangers Oilers
    Tue, 16 Dec 2014 Oilers Coyotes
    Thu, 18 Dec 2014 Oilers Sharks
    Sun, 21 Dec 2014 Stars Oilers
    Tue, 23 Dec 2014 Coyotes Oilers
    Sat, 27 Dec 2014 Oilers Flames
    Tue, 30 Dec 2014 Kings Oilers
    Wed, 31 Dec 2014 Oilers Flames

    Sharks B2B and then right after, Ducks B2B.
    Things should be interesting the morning of Dec. 13th

  57. Zelepukin says:

    Wow, I’m guessing you’ve never played hockey if you’re going to read into that Perron quote as being a characteristic if a bad attitude or team player. Teammates rag on each other all the time, even more so when it’s after something positive like a goal scored.

  58. frjohnk says:

    My guess is this
    3 points from the Yotes games.
    4 points out of the 6 games against Ducks, Sharks, Kings games.
    2 points out of the Stars, Rangers games.
    2 points from the Flames
    0 from the Jets.

    14 games 11 points for Dec.

    By end of Dec.
    37 games played 25 points.

  59. Магия 10 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: It wasn’t after another loss, it was a between-periods interview with Oilers leading 2-1.

    If gazoo transcribed it right nice play is praise and funny could mean he saw the irony of an ugly pass being the right pass.

    I saw Leon look at me, and he saw me all the way.
    It’s funny, it wasn’t the greatest pass – kind of put it in my skates. But regardless I was wide open in the slot – nice play by him.

  60. Clay says:

    The mind boggles.

    I mean, I have no problem with Klefbom staying (as long as he plays and doesn’t eat popcorn the whole time).

    But my gord. Either mgmt/coaching don’t recognize who is able to play and who isn’t, or they are making roster choices based on personal prejudice.

    Doesn’t matter which it is – team is screwed.

    You can’t tell me Norris couldn’t use some time in OKC being taught how to play actual defence by Nelson. Wan’t to make a bold statement MacT? Send your Golden Child down to ride some buses.

  61. Lowetide says:

    I saw the Perron interview, didn’t take it as a shot at Leon. I took it as he was describing it from his pov. One thing we have to remember is language barrier and Perron, very articulate, may have used inflection on words that in the clear light of day (and on paper) seem more aggressive.

  62. leadfarmer says:

    Магия 10,

    By watching the rest of the Oilers players, Draisatl probably figured thats where passes need to go, in the skates

  63. Chris says:

    The handling of the defense this year has been the strongest indictment of the Oilers coaching and management collectively. The usuage of Nikitin and Schultz verus the usage of Petry, Fayne and Maricinin has been bizarre. By eye and by numbers Nikitin and Schultz have been dreadful but the team keeps throwing them over the boards and expecting a better result. Yet the actually effective defensemen struggle to get ice time and face being demoted or scratched.

    If this is Eakins, fire him and replace him with anyone readily available. I care not if its Todd Nelson, Brent Sutter or Dan Bylsma. If MacT is up to his eyeballs in this then he and Lowe need to go. You cannot assemble a mediocre roster and then knee cap it by using it so ineffectively that it becomes dreadful.

  64. Old School G says:

    I’m watching the Detroit vs. Vancouver game. There was a comment made about every line on the Wings containing a player that makes a home in front of the opposition’s net. Once we have a similar roster configuration we’ll compete in the West, until then, we’ll continue to get fed.

    Trim the “core” group down to a select few, not every young guy that has skill needs to be part of our “core”. If we’re going for McDavid, own it, and start trading for “Abdelkaders” to support his skill. Time to start learning from past failures here, come on.

  65. misfit says:

    We keep talking about the Oilers not having balance, but for every good move they make, they turn around and make a bad one to even it out…balance.

  66. Bobbin Roundlee says:

    Looking at the big picture, isn’t it better for Marincin’s development to be in OKC than in the toxic environment of the big club? He’ll be much better next year for all the play he will get in the AHL.

    It certainly looks like moves that are being made now are looking toward the summer. For as much as I hate to see the Oil suck so much, the once in a lifetime chance of getting a generation pick is worth the misery.

    I for one don’t want us to struggle to barely finish out of the playoffs and lose out on a chance for number one pick overall.

    That is the only logical explanation for all the puzzling moves of MacT and Eakins because Ramsey for one certainly knows defence better than either.

  67. Hammers says:

    Lowetide:
    I think Perron is a strong candidate for trade.

    But not on his own ????

  68. Salt N Peca says:

    Woodguy: Too many teams want him.

    He’s the most asked about Oiler among other GM’s.

    How do you know he’s the most asked about Oil player among other GM’s?

  69. misfit says:

    I thought it was Ramsay who was in charge of the defense. Isnt that what Eakins said when they hired him? And if so, what evidence is there that he knows defense better than everyone else?

  70. G Money says:

    AZOIL:
    Woodguy,

    In the last thread you mentioned our PDO is historically low. Is that just bad luck and the real slim shady will soon stand up? Or is that us playing for puck possession along the perimeter and these players are scared to go into the middle and score. With the snipers we have it doesn’t seem normal and something has to give?

    Over the last number of weeks, this has been a topic of much discussion and even “controversy” as it were.

    I have (I’m pretty sure longer than anyone who actually understands and believes PDO) been banging the “we will not revert” drum. Others have been banging the “it’s just bad luck, we will revert” drum for equally long or longer (I started the season banging the “PDO will revert!” drum FWIW).

    I think the unending losing streak and the consistent way in which the Oilers lose has convinced many that there is something more than just bad luck at play here.

    If I were to try to summarize objectively (knowing which side of the fence on which I fall on this topic), I would say the following:

    – PDO is sh% plus sv%, which are variable with a narrow actual spread across the league, and a huge amount of random variation game to game.

    – By definition, PDO adds up to 1 across the league

    – Therefore, in most cases, extreme highs or lows of PDO can be taken as indicators of temporary good or bad luck, and will revert towards 1

    – I say “toward” and not “to” because there has been work (e.g. Parkatti) that there is a “stickiness” to good or bad PDO, which reflects the non-random variation. This makes sense: there are teams that are better shooters than others, there are goalies who are better than others. The range is narrow BUT IT EXISTS!

    – In the Oilers case, I think there is a theme to the sh% and sv% that is consistent and will push the Oilers PDO below 1. Therefore, the Oilers historically bad PDO will revert, but not as much as we think or hope.

    – For sh%, the Oilers are terrible. Some of that is bad luck. Some of it appears to be persistent, as a result of an unwillingness to get traffic in front of the net and make other “hard” plays. This is also a big reason why the shot rate on the PP is decent but the PP itself is shit. So the sh% will revert somewhat based on the luck part of it, but until the team finds its guts and starts playing in the hard areas of the ice, it will be a low sh% team.

    – For sv%, the Oilers are terrible. Some of this has been “For fuck sake, Scrivens, STOP HANDLING THE PUCK!”

    – The other easy answer has been “Fredric Chabot”. Chabot is gone. Let’s hope that really was part of the problem. In any case, if thats the issue, Scrivens and Fasth are likely to be mid-grade to hopefully above-grade goalies overall, so the sv% could in theory revert to mid-pack.

    – The defense is the offset to this. While the Oilers possession game is much better, they have a lot of catastrophic brain farts resulting in easy goals against. More so than most of the teams they play.

    – The statistics suggest that D doesn’t affect sv% much, but the eye so far has been telling a very different story with these Oilers. Schulz and Nikitin have a lot to do with that, which is why they take so much heat. While those two guys are both playing, I’m not sure the sv% CAN revert all the way back to mid-grade.

    – Bottom line: I believe sh% will stay below average. I believe sv% will be average at best, below average more likely. So maybe the Oilers’ “true” PDO is 98. That means they’ll revert from their historically bad 96 – but not as much as we’d hope. Not unless they change the way they play.

  71. book¡je says:

    Lowetide:
    I saw the Perron interview, didn’t take it as a shot at Leon. I took it as he was describing it from his pov. One thing we have to remember is language barrier and Perron, very articulate, may have used inflection on words that in the clear light of day (and on paper) seem more aggressive.

    Agreed – Lots of people getting dramatic over nothing here.

  72. dangilitis says:

    http://thehockeywriters.com/interview-with-qmjhl-prospect-vladimir-tkachev/

    People have probably referenced this interview already

    “- Nail Yakupov is very interested in your plans. Do you still want to be an Oiler?
    – Of course! I really want to play for Edmonton.”

    And we’ll miss out on him, of course. He could have really helped give some extra depth, to make a Winger trade easier to stomach.

  73. Woodguy says:

    GotUkulele: Is that a real quote??

    Yes.

    I just watched pieces of pieces of Oil Change Season 1 episode 1.

    Its what Katz says at the group dinner at the draft.

  74. Marcus Oilerius says:

    I remember, and this was still on OilFans, hearing about Nathan MacKinnon and Connor McDavid back in 2011 and 2012, when we were drafting Nuge and Yak.

    I said “pshaw, as if the Oilers are ever going to be even in the conversation over those two. Get real, son.” or something to that effect.

    Oh me, oh my.

  75. sliderule says:

    The oilers saying they have to improve secondary drafting got me looking at games played since 2008 by these players .
    The oilers have had them play 230 games which puts them 23 in NHL although at the moment no second Rd or later is playing for them.
    The top teams in order Islanders 1274 games,Kings 985 games,Preds 874 games,ottawa 814 games and Chicago 777 games.
    The worst teams in reverse order Pens 30 games! Canucks 74 games,Blues 103 games and Leafs 165 games.

  76. dangilitis says:

    http://spectorshockey.net/blog/sunday-nhl-rumor-roundup-november-30-2014/#comment-182106

    “SPECTOR’S NOTE: The reality is if MacTavish wants to make a trade to suitably address his needs he must part with a better player than Perron or Yakupov. As long as he’s unwilling to do that, there’s nothing Perron or Yakupov, singly or in a package deal, can fetch the Oilers to improve any of their roster weaknesses.”

    I called him out on this blatantly ridiculous claim, then his response suggested that the Oilers ask has been a #1 center. And we wonder sometimes why the rumor mill can wonder so far off the mark…

  77. book¡je says:

    Woodguy: Yes.

    I just watched pieces of pieces of Oil Change Season 1 episode 1.

    Its what Katz says at the group dinner at the draft.

    Are you yearning for the good ol’ days of 2010 when the Oilers were a last place team with hope for the future.

    Damn, I miss the good times too!

  78. Woodguy says:

    AZOIL:
    Woodguy,

    In the last thread you mentioned our PDO is historically low. Is that just bad luck and the real slim shady will soon stand up? Or is that us playing for puck possession along the perimeter and these players are scared to go into the middle and score. With the snipers we have it doesn’t seem normal and something has to give?

    To figure that we need to look at the last 3 years or so and see what their averages are.

    Last 3 years 5v5 SV% : .917
    Last 3 years 5v5 SH%: 7.77
    Base line for OIler PDO based on previous 3 seasons + this one = .994

    Its reasonable to expect them to get back to a PDO of .994

    This year only:
    5v5 SV% : .899
    5v5 SH% : 6.65
    PDO = .965

    So they have some regressing to do.

    FWIW last year they ended with a PDO of 991
    SV% of .9133
    SH% of 7.75%

    After the first 24 games last year their PDO was 976

    5v5 SV% of .897
    5v5 SH% of 7.92%

    PDO is fun because *every year* you see the narratives about how the teams with high PDO’s are grittty, full of leadership, have a Jack Adam’s coach and are coming together (see: COL last year and CAL this year) and team with shitty PDO have no leadership, are a fractured group, and the coach is on the hot seat.

    Every damn year and the MSM simply refuse to acknowledge it.

  79. Woodguy says:

    book¡je: Are you yearning for the good ol’ days of 2010 when the Oilers were a last place team with hope for the future.

    Damn, I miss the good times too!

    Just wanted to see a few scenes to confirm a couple things.

    They were so damn sure they were climbing out of the pit quickly.

    1. Tank
    2. Get high picks
    3. ??????????
    4. Stanley!!

  80. godot10 says:

    misfit:
    I thought it was Ramsay who was in charge of the defense.Isnt that what Eakins said when they hired him?And if so, what evidence is there that he knows defense better than everyone else?

    Assistant coaches don’t matter that much. Assistant coaches come and go in Detroit. Babcock is the head coach. It is the head coach that matters, and who makes the major decisions.

    Eakins is in charge of everything. He is the head coach. Assistants help and advise. They don’t decide.

  81. godot10 says:

    Woodguy: To figure that we need to look at the last 3 years or so and see what their averages are.

    Last 3 years 5v5 SV% : .917
    Last 3 years 5v5 SH%: 7.77
    Base line for OIler PDO based on previous 3 seasons + this one = .994

    Its reasonable to expect them to get back to a PDO of .994

    The roster and the coaching staff is almost completely overhauled. Why would a three year average have any relevance. Only 4 playersthat were significant 2 years ago are still here, Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, Eberle, and Petry.

  82. book¡je says:

    Woodguy: Just wanted to see a few scenes to confirm a couple things.

    They were so damn sure they were climbing out of the pit quickly.

    1. Tank
    2. Get high picks
    3. ??????????
    4. Stanley!!

    Pretty sure that ????????? stands for ‘Oiler Magic’

  83. frjohnk says:

    G Money: Over the last number of weeks, this has been a topic of much discussion and even “controversy” as it were.

    I have (I’m pretty sure longer than anyone who actually understands and believes PDO) been banging the “we will not revert” drum.Others have been banging the “it’s just bad luck, we will revert” drum for equally long or longer (I started the season banging the “PDO will revert!” drum FWIW).

    I think the unending losing streak and the consistent way in which the Oilers lose has convinced many that there is something more than just bad luck at play here.

    If I were to try to summarize objectively (knowing which side of the fence on which I fall on this topic), I would say the following:

    – PDO is sh% plus sv%, which are variable with a narrow actual spread across the league, and a huge amount of random variation game to game.

    – By definition, PDO adds up to 1 across the league

    – Therefore, in most cases, extreme highs or lows of PDO can be taken as indicators of temporary good or bad luck, and will revert towards 1

    – I say “toward” and not “to” because there has been work (e.g. Parkatti) that there is a “stickiness” to good or bad PDO, which reflects the non-random variation.This makes sense: there are teams that are better shooters than others, there are goalies who are better than others.The range is narrow BUT IT EXISTS!

    – In the Oilers case, I think there is a theme to the sh% and sv% that is consistent and will push the Oilers PDO below 1.Therefore, the Oilers historically bad PDO will revert, but not as much as we think or hope.

    – For sh%, the Oilers are terrible.Some of that is bad luck.Some of it appears to be persistent, as a result of an unwillingness to get traffic in front of the net and make other “hard” plays.This is also a big reason why the shot rate on the PP is decent but the PP itself is shit.So the sh% will revert somewhat based on the luck part of it, but until the team finds its guts and starts playing in the hard areas of the ice, it will be a low sh% team.

    – For sv%, the Oilers are terrible.Some of this has been “For fuck sake, Scrivens, STOP HANDLING THE PUCK!”

    – The other easy answer has been “Fredric Chabot”. Chabot is gone.Let’s hope that really was part of the problem.In any case, if thats the issue, Scrivens and Fasth are likely to be mid-grade to hopefully above-grade goalies overall, so the sv% could in theory revert to mid-pack.

    – The defense is the offset to this. While the Oilers possession game is much better, they have a lot of catastrophic brain farts resulting in easy goals against.More so than most of the teams they play.

    – The statistics suggest that D doesn’t affect sv% much, but the eye so far has been telling a very different story with these Oilers.Schulz and Nikitin have a lot to do with that, which is why they take so much heat.While those two guys are both playing, I’m not sure the sv% CAN revert all the way back to mid-grade.

    – Bottom line: I believe sh% will stay below average.I believe sv% will be average at best, below average more likely.So maybe the Oilers’ “true” PDO is 98.That means they’ll revert from their historically bad 96 – but not as much as we’d hope.Not unless they change the way they play.

    Yup. I agree with this.

    There is not much data on shot data so one has to manually track shots to get a real handle on what the oilers goaltenders are facing.

    I looked at shot location at war on ice and at sporting charts but shot location only tells part of the story.

    What is the speed of the shot?
    Is it a transitional shot, ( tougher for goalie to move across and get set for a one timer than a clean shot)
    Is it a rebound?
    Is it a deflection/ or tipped shot?
    Is there traffic?

    War on ice and sporting charts do not account for this factors and it affects outcomes in a big way.

    Chris Boyle had an excellent article on what the oilers goaltenders face.
    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/in-the-nhl-save-percentage-is-a-team-stat/
    “Only 82 percent of the shots he ( Scrivens) has faced are ones in which he could set his depth and angle. The Bruins register 88 percent.”

    League average I believe is 85 percent.
    Our goalie save % will be below average even with average goaltending because oilers have below average team D awareness.

  84. leadfarmer says:

    The scouting is the reason this team is in the position. Instead of cleaning house of the bad scouts we have been adding more crappy scouts to the pile. They can’t identify which prospects are worth keeping so they keep those prospects until they are worthless. They can’t find which players are good players from other teams so they keep signing and trading for poor players. It doesn’t matter how many scouts you add to the department if those scouts are telling you Nikitin is a good player.

  85. frjohnk says:

    To add to my above post.
    85% of all shots in the league are clean shots ( where the goalie is set and can see the shot clearly)
    50% of goals are from clean shots.

    15% of all shots are
    rebounds,
    transistional shots ( like one timers)
    traffic, tipped in/deflections
    these account for 50% of all goals.

  86. leadfarmer says:

    Well quarter of the way into the season and people are finally realizing what I’ve been saying since the end of last season. Nikitin is a terrible player, don’t sign him. The NHL is no place for 18 year old centers, I don’t know how many people shot me down for saying that, and you can’t compete if you have 2 NHL caliber centers, which woodguy was arguing our center depth with Chicago’s at that time.

    Even so, I was still hopeful enough that they could get to 80 points.

  87. Магия 10 says:

    G Money: So maybe the Oilers’ “true” PDO is 98. That means they’ll revert from their historically bad 96 – but not as much as we’d hope

    With average goaltending the last 3 years (that might be generous) as per the above post “the Base line for OIler PDO based on previous 3 seasons + this one = .994”

    The D structure was problematic last year. What evidence suggests full reversion with average goaltending would leave PDO below 99?

  88. Washingtron says:

    EternalFrost:
    I still think Marincin will be back. He’s not as confident as he was last year. Top pairing minute in OKC should help with that.

    Calling him fat, benching him needlessly and continuously demoting him should too…

  89. RexLibris says:

    The Great Gazoo: I just found the vid on the Oilers website. What Perron said:

    I saw Leon look at me, and he saw me all the way.


    It’s funny, it wasn’t the greatest pass – kind of put it in my skates.

    But regardless I was wide open in the slot – nice play by him.

    Thanks, that clears things up a bit.

    I should have looked it up myself, but I’m working all weekend and finding the time lately has been impossible.

  90. jake70 says:

    frjohnk:

    What is the speed of the shot?
    Is it a transitional shot, ( tougher for goalie to move across and get set for a one timer than a clean shot)
    Is it a rebound?
    Is it a deflection/ or tipped shot?
    Is there traffic?

    You forgot knuckleball 🙂

  91. RexLibris says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Rex

    Thanks, Bruce.

    As mentioned, I didn’t have the exact provenance of what was said, but the nature of what was said that was floating around here had me more than a little worried.

    I like that Perron is engaged and expecting better things. I hope they don’t trade him but expect it comes down to between he and Eberle.

  92. Dark Asia says:

    The lack of any semblance of an adequate response to the hole at center, and the completely bizarre deployment of the defensemen that defies any expectations founded on icing your best team has only two explanations:

    1) they are tanking on purpose again (5 years running), or

    2) management is utterly incompetent

    I’m glad to consider any other explanations but frankly don’t see any. If the above is true – how can anyone agree with how the team is being run by management – or not accept that a wholesale purge of management is necessary before anything improves. Both of these explanations are poisonous to the development of any longterm success in the organization.

  93. Bruce McCurdy says:

    The Great Gazoo: I just found the vid on the Oilers website. What Perron said:

    I saw Leon look at me, and he saw me all the way.


    It’s funny, it wasn’t the greatest pass – kind of put it in my skates.

    But regardless I was wide open in the slot – nice play by him.

    This from the game broadcast:

    Geno: “What did you think of the pass by Leon Draisaitl that set up the opening goal on the part of your team?”

    Perron: “It’s funny, from the bench I knew he saw me, it probably wasn’t the greatest pass, I had to catch it with my skates, but regardless I was wide open in the slot, it was nice to put it home.”

    Agree with LT about the ESL thing, & with Bookie that it’s not a federal case or anything, I just found it an odd answer to a softball question.

  94. RexLibris says:

    book¡je: Pretty sure that ????????? stands for ‘Oiler Magic’

    No, I think ????????? is pretty self explanatory. Each ? stands for one extended WTF period.

    By my math we’re three WTFs into the season – the center depth, the opening defensive roster, and giving Nurse and Yakimov their NHL debuts against the Kings three games into the season.

    Three down, six to go.

  95. RexLibris says:

    Bruce McCurdy: This from the game broadcast:

    Geno: “What did you think of the pass by Leon Draisaitl that set up the opening goal on the part of your team?”

    Perron: “It’s funny, from the bench I knew he saw me, it probably wasn’t the greatest pass, I had to catch it with my skates, but regardless I was wide open in the slot, it was nice to put it home.”

    Agree with LT about the ESL thing, & with Bookie that it’s not a federal case or anything, I just found it an odd answer to a softball question.

    That’s alright.

    I’m sure Draisaitl will take it out on him during the German’s next goal celebration.

    🙂

  96. RexLibris says:

    Gillian Anderson with a Best Actress Award (London Evening Standard awards).

    http://www.theguardian.com/culture/2014/nov/30/gillian-anderson-blanche-dubois-best-actress-theatre-award

    Started me thinking whether she has ever made an appearance on LT’s site?

  97. Магия 10 says:

    The 64 milliion dollar question is who on the ice or in the press box or in the AHL can be ready first to take over Nikitin’s penalty kill TOI (see the Nashville game) and how best do we get him there. If it’s Klef on Marty I sure hope we’ve got him in the right place to develop that skill.

  98. Bruce McCurdy says:

    G Money:
    – By definition, PDO adds up to 1 across the league

    2 points:

    1) Some versions of PDO include empty net goals in shooting percentage but exclude them from save percentage. That will results in a mean PDO of 1.002 or 1.003.

    2) While Sh% & Sv% (with ENG either included or excluded for Both) will be a zero sum game across the league as a whole, PDO is subject to distribution effects across the 30 teams. If a team with 2500 shots-for scores against a team with 2000 shots-against, that goal will count disproportionately more against the percentage of the latter team. If you add up the 30 teams that effect will be vanishingly small but it will not be zero. So blanket statements like “by definition” don’t quite apply.

  99. Woodguy says:

    godot10: The roster and the coaching staff is almost completely overhauled.Why would a three year average have any relevance.Only 4 playersthat were significant 2 years ago are still here, Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, Eberle, and Petry.

    If you eliminate 3 years ago and just go with the last 2 years plus this year the PDO goes from .994 to .9914

    Feel free to use that.

  100. Lowetide says:

    RexLibris:
    Gillian Anderson with a Best Actress Award (London Evening Standard awards).

    http://www.theguardian.com/culture/2014/nov/30/gillian-anderson-blanche-dubois-best-actress-theatre-award

    Started me thinking whether she has ever made an appearance on LT’s site?

    Yes. many times. A few gifs too

  101. The Great Gazoo says:

    Магия 10: If gazoo transcribed it right nice play is praise and funny could mean he saw the irony of an ugly pass being the right pass.

    I saw Leon look at me, and he saw me all the way.
    It’s funny, it wasn’t the greatest pass – kind of put it in my skates. But regardless I was wide open in the slot – nice play by him.

    That was from the only vid I could find of Perron describing the play, and was after the game, but it’s on nhl.oilers.com if you want.

  102. G Money says:

    Магия 10: The D structure was problematic last year. What evidence suggests full reversion with average goaltending would leave PDO below 99?

    That’s me watching the Oiler games this season, putting my thumb in the air and deciding that:

    – I’m going to deduct a point for sh% because of the unwillingness to get traffic in front and otherwise go to the hard areas of the ice.

    – I’m going to deduct a point for sv% because a. we still don’t have enough info on Fasth and Scrivens to know if they are replacement level goalies (.9), mid-pack goalies (.91), or excellent goalies (.92) overall. I’m looking at the recent resurgence and being generous and going with .91, but deducting a point because: Nikitin and Schultz playing 23 minutes a night.

    So I get 98.

    Maybe I’m being unfair and that should only be a half point for each (per WG’s post) and the right number is 99. Then again, maybe it should be a point and a half and the real number is 97!

    We’re speculating on what the “true” PDO of these Oilers actually is using data where noise swamps signal 100:1, so we are truly speculating, and may never know the real answer because by the time we have enough samples (games) to make the signal apparent, the team will have changed and so will the “true” PDO.

    Meantime, I’ll bet my left nut that the true PDO of this particular version of the Oiler team is a not-insignificant amount below 1.

    Bruce McCurdy: If you add up the 30 teams that effect will be vanishingly small but it will not be zero. So blanket statements like “by definition” don’t quite apply.

    Fair enough. Whatever that delta is, though, would you argue that it is probably two orders of magnitude or so smaller than the team issues we are discussing with respect to where the “true” PDO ends up and therefore what the reasonable target for reversion might be?

  103. G Money says:

    Bruce McCurdy: 1) Some versions of PDO include empty net goals in shooting percentage but exclude them from save percentage. That will results in a mean PDO of 1.002 or 1.003.

    Is this true? If you’re going to include EN as part of sh%, shouldn’t your complementary sv% be team sv% rather than goalie sv%, which would mean the sum is still 1? That’s what I would do, anyway.

    If that was “my” version of PDO, that 0.002 would bug the fuck out of me and keep me up at night. That’s what you get when you combine mild OCD with a math degree, I guess.

  104. Магия 10 says:

    G Money That’s me watching the Oiler games this season, putting my thumb in the air

    Where was it when you watched last year’s games?

  105. G Money says:

    Lowetide,

    By the way, while I was away in California (I’m now back safe and sound and “enjoying” shovelling my walks in -25 weather), I noticed the Milla gif. Woot!

  106. G Money says:

    Магия 10,

    Same place to be honest. I would have put it at 98 last year too. The .9914 that WG posted is certainly a reasonable result if you believe that 98 is the true number. When we talk about the concept of a true PDO and reversion to that number, if you could ever actually calculate that true number, it would be a shocker if any team actually ended up the year at that actual PDO, wouldn’t it? Actual random variation suggests that you’re going to end up “around” that number, but not on it.

    If the Oilers true PDO the last three years is 98, then the 96 this year is just as reasonable as the 99 last year.

    In fact, you can illlustrate some of the challenges of thinking on PDO reversion with Woodguy’s statement:

    Woodguy: So they have some regressing to do.
    FWIW last year they ended with a PDO of 991
    SV% of .9133
    SH% of 7.75%
    After the first 24 games last year their PDO was 976
    5v5 SV% of .897
    5v5 SH% of 7.92%

    This isn’t actually a reasonable statement to make, that the PDO “reverted”. What happened is that the sh% stayed almost exactly the same (below 8 is a crappy team %, exactly where you’d expect the Oilers to be – league wide I use 8% as crappy, 9% as medium, 10% as good – that’s really the sustainable range, just as with goaltending it is the inverse, from .9 to .92).

    The sv% did not actually “revert” though, did it? They changed goalies mid-stream. If the Oilers had stayed with Dubnyk/Labarbera (who sucked the entire season), or if Scrivens/Fasth hadn’t come in and played lights out for the most part, would that number have reverted?

    I would say no.

    In which case, the Oilers would have finished at right around that 976 – again, perfectly reasonably if you think the “true” PDO is 98.

  107. AZOIL says:

    frjohnk: Yup.I agree with this.

    There is not much data on shot data so one has to manually track shots to get a real handle on what the oilers goaltenders are facing.

    I looked at shot location at war on ice and at sporting charts but shot location only tells part of the story.

    What is the speed of the shot?
    Is it a transitional shot, ( tougher for goalie to move across and get set for a one timer than a clean shot)
    Is it a rebound?
    Is it a deflection/ or tipped shot?
    Is there traffic?

    War on ice and sporting charts do not account for this factors and it affects outcomes in a big way.

    Chris Boyle had an excellent article on what the oilers goaltenders face.
    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/in-the-nhl-save-percentage-is-a-team-stat/
    “Only 82 percent of the shots he ( Scrivens) has faced are ones in which he could set his depth and angle. The Bruins register 88 percent.”

    League average I believe is 85 percent.
    Our goalie save % will be below average even with average goaltending because oilers have below average team D awareness.

    Yes I agree with this and G Money, our players or coaching tactics are not getting the Ryan Smyth type goals! Also, are D gives the opposition way to much space to work and backs up giving up the easy goals.

  108. AZOIL says:

    Woodguy: If you eliminate 3 years ago and just go with the last 2 years plus this year the PDO goes from .994 to .9914

    Feel free to use that.

    I agree, I feel like looking at just the last two years is better but regardless it has gone down with this new coach/players/systems.

    So what has changed to make our corsi better? Do they carry it in more now and have better exit passes from the D? If so pick a guy on each line to be our Ryan Smyth and go to the net. Perron is good at this. On our top line we don’t have this.

  109. misfit says:

    So with Pitlick being recalled, and not knowing exactly the roster number at the moment, I wonder if Marincin’s demotion wasnt just a matter of having to assign someone while JJ is awaiting a claim or to clear waivers.

  110. Marcus Oilerius says:

    The goals for/against over the last 21 games were the same as the first 21. If you exclude Dubnyk’s first 4 games, the SV% was identical.

  111. Bruce McCurdy says:

    G Money:
    Fair enough.Whatever that delta is, though, would you argue that it is probably two orders of magnitude or so smaller than the team issues we are discussing with respect to where the “true” PDO ends up and therefore what the reasonable target for reversion might be?

    Oh yeah, i said “vanishingly small” for a reason, i’m just always mindful about absolute statements that aren’t, quite. Not meaning to be a prick about it, it just kinda happens. 😉

  112. Bruce McCurdy says:

    G Money: Is this true?If you’re going to include EN as part of sh%, shouldn’t your complementary sv% be team sv% rather than goalie sv%, which would mean the sum is still 1?That’s what I would do, anyway.

    If that was “my” version of PDO, that 0.002 would bug the fuck out of me and keep me up at night. That’s what you get when you combine mild OCD with a math degree, I guess.

    Yeah that’s the logical thing to do. Just some sites list team shooting oercentage & goalies’ save percentage (rather than team). Again, just something to be mindful of, always be sure you’ve got apples and apples.

  113. Lowetide says:

    misfit:
    So with Pitlick being recalled, and not knowing exactly the roster number at the moment, I wonder if Marincin’s demotion wasnt just a matter of having to assign someone while JJ is awaiting a claim or to clear waivers.

    Could very well be the case.

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