OILERS AT SHARKS G28, 2014-15

The Edmonton Oilers are in San Jose tonight, many believe this will be the beginning of the end for the good Corsi’s. Edmonton has some exceptional numbers on display when we marry the boxcars to the fancystats. Taylor Hall is a bloody machine, you could put him on the 74-75 Washington Capitals and he’d post 2/60 at 5×5. Do you like Boyd Gordon? You’re going to love him in a minute.

OILERS FORWARDS IN A BOX, AFTER 27 GAMES

PLAYER BOXCARS PROJ14-15 CORSI FOR % OZ STARTS 5X5 PER 60
BENOIT POULIOT 20gp, 3-5-8 75, 11-19-30 51.2 62.5 2.11
TAYLOR HALL 21gp, 8-9-17 76, 29-33-62 52.6 58.9 2.04
NUGENT-HOPKINS 25gp, 6-11-17 80, 19-35-54 51.6 58.7 2.00
JORDAN EBERLE 26gp, 5-12-17 81, 16-37-53 55.1 61.6 1.96
IIRO PAKARINEN 5gp, 1-0-1 93.8 1.86
DAVID PERRON 27gp, 4-10-14 82, 12-30-42 51.6 69.0 1.82
STEVE PINIZZOTTO 9gp, 1-1-2 64, 7-7-14 43.3 20.0 1.74
TEDDY PURCELL 27gp, 4-8-12 82, 12-24-36 54.6 62.3 1.28
BOYD GORDON 27gp, 4-3-7 82, 12-9-21 47.1 16.3 1.11
NAIL YAKUPOV 27gp, 4-4-8 82, 12-12-24 48.6 75.0 1.10
MARK ARCOBELLO 27gp, 5-4-9 82, 15-12-27 49.9 69.2 1.03
LEON DRAISAITL 27gp, 2-4-6 82, 6-12-18 52.0 80.0 0.84
MATT HENDRICKS 23gp, 2-3-5 78, 7-10-17 47.2 11.9 0.79
JESSE JOENSUU 20gp, 2-2-4 75, 8-8-16 46.3 12.5 0.62
TYLER PITLICK 3gp, 0-0-0 38.1 0.00
LUKE GAZDIC 6gp, 0-0-0 66.7 0.00
  • Hall—Nuge—Eberle are the only line scoring at good to very good levels.
  • The team misses Pouliot.
  • David Perron is doing his damndest, not having a veteran 2C on this team is such a shame.
  • Purcell’s OZ start and Corsi number should translate to move 5×5 offense. Agree?
  • Boyd Gordon, you magnificent bastard!
  • Nail and Leon need to add a lot of 5×5 offense to be considered average. A lot.
  • Mark Arcobello can’t make this go, he’s over his head offensively. Damn shame, because he’s a smart player.

OILERS DEFENSE IN A BOX, AFTER 27 GAMES

PLAYER BOXCARS PROJ14-15 CORSI FOR % OZ STARTS 5X5 PER 60
OSCAR KLEFBOM 7gp, 0-1-1 62, 0-9-9 57.4 46.8 0.48
KEITH AULIE 10gp, 0-0-0 54.2 48.7 0.00
JEFF PETRY 26gp, 2 -3-5 81, 6-9-15 51.9 42.3 0.40
MARTIN MARINCIN 12gp, 0-1-1 51.1 48.7 0.33
MARK FAYNE 27gp, 1-4-5 82, 3-12-15 50.5 47.6 0.61
NIKITA NIKITIN 22gp, 2-3-5 77, 7-10-17 50.3 55.0 0.53
JUSTIN SCHULTZ 26gp, 2-9-11 81, 6-28-34 49.5 61.2 1.09
ANDREW FERENCE 24gp, 1-1-2 79, 3-3-6 46.8 42.6 0.28
  • This is ranked by Corsi, OZ starts and when viewing it that way Jeff Petry is a God (27 today btw).
  • Andrew Ference is having a stronger season than one year ago.
  • Klefbom is having a nice season, early days.
  • Marincin should be in the NHL.
  • Fayne!

BRANDON DAVIDSON RECALL?

Lake Erie vs. Barons 2-15-14

  •  Jim Matheson: The Oilers could be calling up a farmhand Tuesday for the Sharks game with Nikita Nikitin (back) on injured reserve. It might be Brandon Davidson, and not Marincin, just because Marincin’s already been up and sat in the press box, which isn’t helping him any. Davidson was with the Oilers early in the season as he rehabbed from stomach muscle problems that hit him before training camp. Source

 BARONS, LAST 10 GAMES

That Matty article suggests Kale Kessy was close to recall, suggesting (as we’ve discussed) good AHL performances will be rewarded by the organization (save Martin Marincin, apparently). Here are the boxcars over the last 10 games for OKC:

  1. D Brad Hunt 10, 5-9-14 +8
  2. C Jason Williams 9, 4-10-14 +8
  3. L Ryan Hamilton 9, 4-5-9 +9
  4. C Anton Lander 9, 4-5-9 +1
  5. R Matt Ford 9, 4-4-8 +9
  6. R Andrew Miller 9, 4-2-6 +4
  7. L Curtis Hamilton 10, 2-4-6 +1
  8. C Bogdan Yakimov 8, 0-5-5 +5
  9. D Jordan Oesterle 10, 1-4-5 +6
  10. R Iiro Pakarinen 9, 3-1-4 +3
  11. R Tyler Pitlick 7, 2-1-3 -1 (before recall)
  12. C Travis Ewanyk 10, 1-1-2 -2
  13. R Josh Winquist 2, 0-1-1 +1
  14. D Oscar Klefbom 3, 0-1-1 +3 (before recall)
  15. D Dillon Simpson 7, 1-0-1 E
  16. L Kale Kessy 7, 0-1-1 -1
  17. L Mitch Moroz 8, 0-1-1 -2
  18. C Jujhar Khaira 9, 0-1-1 E
  19. D Brandon Davidson 10, 1-0-1 +5
  20. R Steve Pinizzotto 1, 0-0-0 (before recall)
  21. C Kellen Lain 2, 0-0-0 E
  22. D Martin Marincin 3, 0-0-0 -1
  23. D David Musil 7, 0-0-0 E
  24. D Martin Gernat 8, 0-0-0 +1

AHL rookies underlined and it’s easy to see the success in OKC over the last 10 games comes from the AHL veterans. Is that a bad thing? Plenty of talk about it recently, I wrote about this four years ago and more recently here. There’s all kind of talk (Bob Stauffer, Neal Livingston) on the Al Gore about the best way to handle these young players and for me both sides make great points. In the absence of a CPHL (from my article four years ago) the best plan is to play these men every night. If they can’t make it in the AHL, then ECHL it is. Right? I do think there’s a problem if Matt Ford is playing and Mitch Moroz is not, but it looks like Todd Nelson is rotating players through with a healthy scratch for everyone.

Ideas for a better system? Beyond the CPHL (which is the best plan, but you need buy in from all 30 teams to create that league) the Oilers should own their own team and Denver boot the coach in terms of veterans. That is not the case now, and if the Oilers are serious about development then it’s going to take that kind of investment. I know most fans and media are blaming the scouts on this, but a generation after Tyler Pitlick, Curtis Hamilton and Ryan Martindale failed (and some of those guys started off well in the AHL, before injury) this scoring list suggests the veterans are pushing and the kids are playing minor roles.

Question: would you rather have that scoring list above, or the current AHL Flames list (rookies asterisked)

flames ahl

Poirier, Arnold, Van Brabant, Hathaway, Wolf, Agostino are all forwards and all have more points than Bogdan Yakimov. I’m no expert, but could we create a scenario in which the Flames’ organization is doing a better job of developing their rookie AHL talent? And if that is the case, when we talk about failed drafting by Oilers scouts, could it be that precious development time is being spent poorly?

I don’t have the answer, but I am asking the question.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

deneuve1

At 10 this morning, we hit the airwaves with a whole lotta chatter. TSN 1260, scheduled to appear:

  • Jonathan Willis, Cult of Hockey and Oilers Nation. Jon and I get to talk about a win and a California trip. Fun fun fun!
  • Guy Flaming, Pipeline Show. Talking Oil Kings struggles and some WHL talent making a noise in front of the 2015 draft.
  • Alan Hull, Copper and Blue. Bloggers be making babies, but Hull has agreed to come on despite lack of sleep (baby is about 2 weeks old, could be hilarious if he falls asleep on the phone).
  • Derek from Fear the Fin. Talking the new Christmas song (Sharks edition) and San Jose’s weird hockey season.

10-1260 text and @Lowetide_ on twitter. See you on the radio!

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379 Responses to "OILERS AT SHARKS G28, 2014-15"

« Older Comments
  1. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy:
    The Oilers not calling up Lander, or any other C for that matter is sooooo Because Oilers.

    These assholes get what they deserve.

    Assholes.

    MacT is trolling us now.

  2. book¡je says:

    Lowetide:
    I spoke to Todd Nelson today, he had great things to say about Brandon Davidson. Said Marincin was extremely disappointed, but talked to him about the things he needed to work on before coming back. I got the feeling he thinks highly of Marincin as a person.

    NO idea about Lander. None. I know that this blog is considered to be the most patient in the oilogosphere (“these guys suck Lowetide”) but Lander is just sitting there in OKC and you can’t tell me he wouldn’t be able to help at least a little. PKing for Nuge, as an example.

    Tell us the truth – could you sense him rolling his eyes about management and coaching at the NHL level.

  3. theres oil in virginia says:

    book¡je:
    G Money,

    Correlation = causation G-Money, just think about how many lives we could have saved by preventing Nicolas Cage from staring in movies if we just accepted this fact.

    Yeah, you notice that slight lag in the swimming pool graph? Those people didn’t “fall” in, they just refused to live in a world in which Nicolas Cage is considered to be a good actor.

  4. Adam Wu says:

    jb:
    A competent players muffin from the perimeter is intended is to generate a rebound though, potentially multiple corsi events while your team should have a somewhat equal chance to retrieve that rebound. Closer to the perimeter means more luck needed to turn that corsi event into a goal. Which corsi gives 0 fucks about. 2 flip ins from center ice onto the net, is infinitely better than a breakaway that misses topshelf by an inch.

    Corsi say’s that perimeter shot was equal to the snipe from the slot. That alone is more than enough to dismiss Corsi as is imo.

    Corsi actually says no such thing. Thinking it does reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of statistics and what they mean and do.

    And that breakaway shot that misses? That is a TERRIBLE scoring shot quality, because it missed the net, and missed in a manner that precludes even the remote chance of a lucky bounce, short of a pigeon getting into the rink. The a priori chance of that particular shot scoring was zero, and was always zero the moment it left the player’s stick. It’s not going in even if the goalie drops dead at that instant. The very laws of physics dictate it so. On the other hand, the flip in from center ice, so long as it is on net, has a chance of hitting a rut, bouncing weird, or the goalie muffing it, and thus has a non-zero probability of becoming a goal, and is therefore a higher quality shot than ANY shot that misses no matter where it is taken.

    As for the distant shot taken hoping for a rebound, if that play works it becomes two Corsi events, a +2 instead of a +1, so the statistic accounts for that play’s effectiveness.

  5. sliderule says:

    The only thought I have on the great Corsi debate is if you get lots of shots on net you might have a good Corsi and some skilled players..
    If you miss the net all the time your team might have a decent Corsi but no skill.
    By skill I mean that elusive oiler thing called goal scoring.

  6. fifthcartel says:

    I don’t think the Oilers are outright tanking, but if a Gordon goes down, or a useful player is on the waiver wire, they’re probably going to look the other way and if they lose a couple games because of it, they’re not going to be too worried.

  7. G Money says:

    theres oil in virginia: they just refused to live in a world in which Nicolas Cage is considered to be a good actor.

    “That’s high praise!”

  8. Pouzar says:

    Eric Rodgers ‏@ericrsports 4m4 minutes ago
    A familiar name is back in the #Oilers system, Cameron Abney signed with Bakersfield today. #OKCBarons

  9. Zangetsu says:

    Pouzar,

    And some people say our third rounders aren’t panning out.

  10. Lowetide says:

    Pouzar:
    Eric Rodgers ‏@ericrsports4m4 minutes ago
    A familiar name is back in the #Oilers system, Cameron Abney signed with Bakersfield today. #OKCBarons

    Good grief.

  11. Adam Wu says:

    The thing to remember about all statistics is that their predictive utility is predicated the models used to derive them and how closely reality correlates to those models.

    All models make assumptions.

    One of the main assumptions to the Corsi model is that the game being played is hockey, not shoot-a-thon-at-the-net. In the game of hockey, the players are trying to score goals. They are trying to get as high a quality of a shot as they think they can in any given game situation, in order to score goals. They are not simply trying to hit the net with a shot, any shot. The shot quality issue with respect to corsi cancels out within the model that corsi applies to as a result of the players’ behavior motivated by their desire to score goals and win the game.

    The predictive value of corsi is empirically demonstrated in the game of hockey.

    It is certainly possible to “break” the corsi model by deliberately going for shots and not caring about shot quality. BUT, that game IS NOT the game of hockey. THAT game is shoot-a-thon-at-the-net.

    We have plenty of solid empirical evidence that corsi has predictive value in the game of hockey. We do not know if corsi has predictive value in shoot-a-thon-at-the-net, because shoot-a-thon-at-the-net has not been played much in a situation where many statistics and results have been collected and examined empirically. The null hypothesis would be that it does not.

    And this is what I mean when I say that people who dismiss corsi’s proven predictive value in hockey because it doesn’t take shot quality into account, and this or that hypothetical situation concerning shot quality can invalidate the corsi result can only say this because they do not understand what statistics are, how they work, what makes them useful, and why we use them.

  12. McSorley33 says:

    Columbus and Buffalo win….

  13. Adam Wu says:

    Everyone agrees that shot quality is a factor that impacts the outcome in a game of hockey. The PRACTICAL issue at hand is “how do you measure the frickin thing?”

    The shot from the point that the player fans, and dribbles into the goalies pad. Good or bad shot quality?

    The flip in from the point that hits a rut on the ice and does a crazy bounce into the top corner of the net on a trajectory that no human being can possibly intercept. Good or bad shot quality?

    The rebound from the dot that comes so quickly the goalie cannot even move to react to it, but which follows a trajectory that takes it straight into the goalies glove without the goalie even having to move. Good or bad shot quality?

    The weak unsupported shot from the blueline that goes between the legs of defender who was trying to block it, creating a perfect screen on his own goalie. Good or bad shot quality?

    Newtons Laws of Motion. The moment the puck leaves the shooters stick, its trajectory is fixed and no longer alterable by human action. An object in motion remains in motion on a fixed trajectory unless acted upon by an outside force. If it hits the post, it was always going to hit the post. That shot’s scoring probability is zero, was zero, and always will be zero. If it hits a rut in the ice and changes direction and goes in, it was always going to do that, because the rut was always already there. If it bounces off a defender’s backside and goes it, it was always going to do that, because the defender’s backside was already there and short of superhuman reflexes or a Star Trek transporter to whisk him away at the last nanosecond, it is always going to be there and it is not physically possible for a human being, the defender, to notice the shot coming, realize that it is going to bounce off him and into the net, and move out of the way in time. If it misses, it was always going to miss.

    Shot location is not the only factor that affects shot quality. There’s a substantial random factor as well, or at least a combination of factors so hard to measure that we may as well call it random.

    All attempts to find a proxy for shot quality that has predictive value in the game of hockey have to date failed. This is not because shot quality doesn’t matter. It’s because we don’t have any good measurement for shot quality and all the proxies we’ve tried to date suck at it.

    Corsi makes the practical decision to dispense with the nearly impossible measure of shot quality, and accept the assumption that the randomness will regress to a mean given sufficient sample size. Corsi was then tested empirically to see if the assumptions hold up well enough for the statistic to have practical utility, and lo, when the data was in, it turned out that it was so.

    Would some other hypothetical statistic that incorporates a perfect shot quality be better than Corsi? Possibly. We’d have to test it empirically to see if it is, and by how much, and whether that amount of improvement is worth the extra trouble of measuring it, compared to corsi.

    Is corsi perfect? Of course not.

    But that’s not the point. The point is:

    Is corsi USEFUL?

    And the answer to that is YES.

  14. Yeti says:

    Lowetide: Good grief.

    Thank god!

  15. Ice Sage says:

    Oh my… Flames fail to come back for 2nd game in a row, despite being outshot and getting great goaltending. Just bad luck, I guess

  16. RexLibris says:

    Pouzar:
    Eric Rodgers ‏@ericrsports4m4 minutes ago
    A familiar name is back in the #Oilers system, Cameron Abney signed with Bakersfield today. #OKCBarons

    Is he replacing the Condor as entertainment during special events? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tcd3DKWlqUk

  17. jzed says:

    Methinks, a spanking may be upcoming….

  18. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Someone should tell Ference that little black thing is a puck and not a grenade.
    I’ll be glad when he rides off into the sunset on his pedal bike.

  19. jp says:

    jzed:
    Methinks,a spanking may be upcoming….

    You think?

  20. Minister D- says:

    Fuck. We’re going to get killed.

  21. RexLibris says:

    McSorley33:
    Columbus and Buffalo win….

    I don’t think “win” means what you think it does.

    #OrangeForMcDavid

  22. Pouzar says:

    Schultz well engaged on that one.

  23. RexLibris says:

    We’re going to need a bigger boat?

  24. oilleak2014 says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    Someone should tell Ference that little black thing is a puck and not a grenade.
    I’ll be glad when he rides off into the sunset on his pedal bike.

    I agree let’s play him another 26mins what. Joke

  25. LostBoy says:

    The Oilers started tentative, Sharks assertive. First goal wasn’t a disaster, couple of miscues then basically professional hired killers doing what they do with half an opportunity. After that, bad, bad, bad. Probably time to send the wee ones to bed, or at least gently put your hand over their eyes.

  26. Gordies Elbow says:

    #McDavid

  27. Klima's_Bucket says:

    RexLibris: We’re going to need a bigger boat?

    “Who needs a boat when you have a bike?” – Ference

  28. Minister D- says:

    No Gordon pretty much guarantees a loss. Tonight, it’s the pride of Chamblay, Quebec: Le Fin Du Monde.

  29. Pouzar says:

    And there is Norris getting the prime minutes on the PP after being a spectator on the 2nd goal.

  30. RexLibris says:

    Klima’s_Bucket: “Who needs a boat when you have a bike?” – Ference

    I hear standup paddleboard is a wicked hard workout. That’ll get us to shore, right?

  31. McSorley33 says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    Someone should tell Ference that little black thing is a puck and not a grenade.
    I’ll be glad when he rides off into the sunset on his pedal bike.

    To be fair to Ference, it was Barclay Goodrrow…..from Melker Karlsson. So, how do you defend that duo?

  32. RexLibris says:

    Pouzar:
    And there is Norris getting the prime minutes on the PP after being a spectator on the 2nd goal.

    Basic educational philosophy.

    Watch one, do one, teach one.

  33. RexLibris says:

    Four minutes without a goal against!

    #SilverLinings

  34. LostBoy says:

    Okay, it’s not necessarily a huge criticism of Eakins, because it’s been a feature throughout three coaches in this fun show.

    But coaching isn’t just systems and deployment and zone starts.

    The Oilers didn’t look like they believed they could win this from the puck drop.

    Tentative and reactive. Feeling their way in.

    All else aside, you’re not going to win when you don’t come to win puck battles and challenge. Professionalism.

    On Sunday, everyone finished their checks and the boards were banging.

    Just isn’t happening in this game. Like frightened little lambs.

  35. jzed says:

    That philosophy only works for surgeons and ER docs, knee deep in a bloody.., never mind.

  36. RexLibris says:

    jzed:
    That philosophy only works for surgeons and ER docs, knee deep in a bloody.., never mind.

    Now you’re catching on!

  37. Lowetide says:

    Nice goal there. Leon with the really nice assist.

  38. jp says:

    Wow. Very nice goal. And a lovely pass by the German!

  39. Minister D- says:

    SEND HIM BACK TO PA

  40. Pouzar says:

    Doze mits.

  41. Gordies Elbow says:

    We like Leon the Professional.

  42. Klima's_Bucket says:

    That sick finish by Eberle was not possible without some quality German engineering…

  43. Pouzar says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    That sick finish by Eberle was not possible without some quality German engineering…

    Indeed but Eberle made a nice play to get back to the pro and Yak drew in the coverage!

  44. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide:
    Nice goal there. Leon with the really nice assist.

    TOLD YA! 😛

    j/k

    Feeling juvenile this evening.

    Must be the eggnog.

  45. LostBoy says:

    Then again, maybe they felt their way in.

  46. Lowetide says:

    I always liked David Perron, going back to draft day.

  47. Pouzar says:

    Finals Here We Come!

  48. jp says:

    Huh. Not complaining, but count me surprised (pleasantly) by the pushback. Lots of game left, but this is kinda nice.

  49. Gordies Elbow says:

    #Eichel

    🙂

  50. BlacqueJacque says:

    The only thing that was injured about Eberle was his ego and effort level. There’s no way you come back from an injury like that.

  51. Lowetide says:

    Oscar Klefbom with a WONDERFUL SKATE OUT UNDER CONTROL.

  52. jzed says:

    I’m smiling, but reserve the right to frown.

  53. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide:
    I always liked David Perron, going back to draft day.

    I’m really hoping the Oilers don’t trade him away. He seems to be one of those calling for greater accountability and work ethic from the players. We need more of that, not less.

  54. Gerta Rauss says:

    Nice period, chaos early but they turned things around after that PP

  55. Pouzar says:

    Lowetide:
    Oscar Klefbom with a WONDERFUL SKATE OUT UNDER CONTROL.

    Beautiful isn’t it….don’t f^ck it up MacT

  56. Derek says:

    Remenda really hammering home the point that the sharks play poorly against shitty teams like the Oilers.

  57. Gerta Rauss says:

    BlacqueJacque:
    The only thing that was injured about Eberle was his ego and effort level.There’s no way you come back from an injury like that.

    Maybe his body is healing..? It’s been known to happen

  58. RexLibris says:

    WoI has the Fenwick at 55/45 in Edmonton’s favour.

    My heavens, could this be one of those fabled confluences of a road game, possession dominance and….a potential win?

    Unicorns, I tell you!

  59. LostBoy says:

    What a bipolar period.

    I’ll take it.

    “2nd” and “3rd” lines score. How many times has that happened this season?

  60. BeerMe says:

    Missed all but the last minute. What’s the story so far?

  61. jp says:

    Lowetide:
    Oscar Klefbom with a WONDERFUL SKATE OUT UNDER CONTROL.

    That’s what MacT saw on that fabled 1st shift he watched. The kid can play hockey.

  62. Pouzar says:

    RexLibris:
    WoI has the Fenwick at 55/45 in Edmonton’s favour.

    My heavens, could this be one of those fabled confluences of a road game, possession dominance and….a potential win?

    Unicorns, I tell you!

    Sharks looked like they were going to put a 5 spot there. Very nice push back

  63. Gerta Rauss says:

    RexLibris,

    This isn’t the same SJ team we’ve seen in the past-normally they would have been up 4-0 after 10 min then coasted for the 2 points

    Not to take anything away from the Oilers, they were full marks for the last 10 min of that period

  64. G Money says:

    Resilience?

    Quick zone entries and quick shots on the PP?

    Forced turnovers on the forecheck FOR?!?

    What team am I watching?

    Oh yeah – slow start, weak battle by Schultz and a turnover by Ference both leading to quick easy goals against.

    Your (half) Edmonton Oilers!

  65. GCW_69 says:

    freedomisamyth: I agree that the deals for Leddy and Boychuck are looking nice for this year for Snow, but your analysis also doesn’t count the fact that Boychuck is UFA after this year and could be a short term thing, and the Oilers certainly were not in a position to be picking up UFA’s for draft picks. MacT would have been skewered for making such a deal if he couldn’t resign Boychuck. The Oilers have decided they don’t want to give up high draft picks and prospects for strictly short term assets.

    The point of hockey is to win. If MacT had his team competing, no one would have been complaining about losing second round draft picks. Plus, who says Boychuk wouldn’t sign here? You have to take some risk and that would have been a manageable risk.

  66. Gerta Rauss says:

    GCW_69: no one would have been complaining about losing second round draft picks

    I can think of a few people

    *for the record, I was pushing hard for Boychuk all summer

  67. Gordies Elbow says:

    RexLibris,

    Agreed – always liked Perron, and think he’s underrated for what he brings. Plays a harder game than the other wingers, and is a generalized pain in the a**, If they’re trading him, I’d hope for top dollar, but given the current crew, I’m not expecting much.

  68. RexLibris says:

    Gordies Elbow:
    RexLibris,

    Agreed – always liked Perron, and think he’s underrated for what he brings. Plays a harder game than the other wingers, and is a generalized pain in the a**, If they’re trading him, I’d hope for top dollar, but given the current crew, I’m not expecting much.

    I did an experiment for FN that used strictly advanced stats categories to create a salary cap roster.

    http://flamesnation.ca/2014/9/29/numerology

    Perron made it as a 2nd line winger.

    Here is what I wrote at the time:

    Exploring Hockey Analysis I stumbled upon their HARO, HARD, and HART categories which are essentially Hockey Analysis ratings of offense, defense, and the two combined. They adjust these rankings with Fenwick data and then contrast them against quality of competition and David Perron, in this case, leads the league as a player who provides the most offense while minimizing changes against when playing some of the toughest competition in the league.

    The maths like him as well.

  69. LostBoy says:

    The nearly unique thing about Perron on this team is that when there’s a lane to the net available, he puts it on net. Everything else is mostly fancy dan.

    A little more of that, and a few more bodies, would help a lot.

    There’s nothing wrong with fancy dan, per se, but you can’t have nothing but. That way lies corsi highs and two goals a night.

  70. RexLibris says:

    Gerta Rauss,

    Granted, but credit where due. The Oilers could have folded like a cheap tent, but got their feet beneath them instead. That Draisaitl got an assist on Eberle’s goal on the road is a small but significant detail.

  71. RexLibris says:

    Pouzar,

    Confidence aside though, we’re looking at a redux for period 2 now. Even score, so who responds and who reacts? My guess is the Sharks respond, forcing the Oilers to react. We’ll see how that goes.

  72. geowal says:

    jp: That’s what MacT saw on that fabled 1st shift he watched. The kid can play hockey.

    He must have seen Schultz do that a few times. Apparently Klefbom has additional qualities. art Ross anyone?

  73. RexLibris says:

    Leafs 4-1 over Flames.

    Thomas Drance @ThomasDrance
    This is what Calga-regression will look like, by the way. They just don’t generate enough on offense, a flaw the bounces have covered up.
    7:46 PM – 9 Dec 2014

  74. Kitchener says:

    Pitlick looking good again. Now if only he could pot a few.

  75. AZOIL says:

    We are dominating in the FO’s tonight and actually most of this season. I remember on this blog people pissed about our face offs in years past. I know Gordon is great but Nuge must have gotten better?

    This likely helps the possession stats a lot right?

  76. godot10 says:

    Kitchener:
    Pitlick looking good again.Now if only he could pot a few.

    Pitlick has ALWAYS looked like an NHL player. That is why he was a consensus late first round pick (ahead of Toffoli) on MacKenzie’s list.

    But the production has never come.

  77. Pouzar says:

    I worry about this Drai kid.

  78. Klima's_Bucket says:

    If Hendricks keeps up this domination on the draws.
    Can we bump Gordon up a line to play with some wingers with some talent when he comes back?

  79. Pouzar says:

    I was worried with Drai going down Musil would get the call.

  80. jp says:

    geowal: He must have seen Schultz do that a few times.Apparently Klefbom has additional qualities. art Ross anyone?

    Schultz will have to win an Art Ross to have a Norris in his future.

  81. frjohnk says:

    Draisaitl play where he takes the pass off his skate and to his stick and gets off a shot for great scoring chance proves he is a bust

    Oh and the power move to the net with puck earlier that shift just cements that idea.

  82. Pouzar says:

    PDO giveth….

  83. BeerMe says:

    No chance there for scrivvy.

  84. RexLibris says:

    frjohnk:
    Draisaitl play where he takes the pass off his skate and to his stick and gets off a shot for great scoring chance proves he is a bust

    Oh and the power move to the net with puck earlier that shift just cements that idea.

    Daigle all over again.

  85. BlacqueJacque says:

    Gerta Rauss: Maybe his body is healing..? It’s been known to happen

    Bollocks.

    Eberle just happens to go from zero to hero as the team collectively pulls its ass out of its head? No. He was one of the mopers called out by Ference.

  86. BlacqueJacque says:

    Steve Piminotto!

  87. G Money says:

    Aleondre Draigle?

  88. Lowetide says:

    godot10: Pitlick has ALWAYS looked like an NHL player.That is why he was a consensus late first round pick (ahead of Toffoli) on MacKenzie’s list.

    But the production has never come.

    Yes. That’s exactly the issue.

  89. G Money says:

    The Sharks pulled out a lead after being dominated by the Oilers, and now its the refs jobs to make sure they don’t screw it up.

  90. VanOil says:

    Pouzar:
    I was worried with Drai going down Musil would get the call.

    I was going to guess Hunt, but you are correct Musil is the obvious replacement for Draisaitl. Oilers Numerology baby can’t beat it only bask in it.

  91. Pouzar says:

    RexLibris:
    Pouzar,

    Confidence aside though, we’re looking at a redux for period 2 now. Even score, so who responds and who reacts? My guess is the Sharks respond, forcing the Oilers to react. We’ll see how that goes.

    yup

  92. Gordies Elbow says:

    #McDavid

    🙁

    #Benson

    🙁

  93. Gerta Rauss says:

    jesus what a PP goal

    big test to see if we can come back again down 2 goals

  94. frjohnk says:

    RexLibris: Daigle all over again.

    Wonder if Draisaitl said “nobody remembers who is drafted 4th”

  95. Captain's Log says:

    Oilers again committing too hard to the perimeter on the PK. Do they not see all the goals they give up in the slot? Tough spot for Klefbom. He either commits and gives up the pass or covers the pass and lets Marleau walk right out.

  96. Pouzar says:

    Schultz to Aulie to Gazdic……….brings me back…………….

  97. Lowetide says:

    Jim Matheson ‏@NHLbyMatty 3m3 minutes ago

    Canadian Olympic team D-man Marc-Edouard Vlasic was hit hard by Pitlick late in 1st and hasn’t returned for SJ.#oilers.

  98. Gordies Elbow says:

    Lowetide,

    Pickles is great, but Pitlick is developing a reputation of hitting very hard. That’s a good thing, right?

  99. G Money says:

    PP Zone Exits brought to you by the Comedy Network.

  100. godot10 says:

    Klefbom’s boxcars have always been bad, because he has always been the best defensive defensemen on the teams that he has been on, which means he doesn’t get PP time and the chance to flash that rocket that went off the post just there.

  101. VanOil says:

    Yak-Draisaitl-Eberle is a fun line for the future. But will the future come soon enough?

  102. G Money says:

    Two clean shots past Shylock, two goalposts.

    Guess the Hockey Gords and their asshole sense of humour took a night off last game, but they haven’t quit on this team yet.

  103. godot10 says:

    On shots fromt the point…

    Justin Schultz…K-POP.
    Oscar Klefbom…K-BOMB.

  104. VanOil says:

    The two 4th lines tonight are a big screaming argument against expansion.

  105. VanOil says:

    godot10:
    On shots fromt the point…

    Justin Schultz…K-POP.
    Oscar Klefbom…K-BOMB.

    K-POP well done

  106. Pouzar says:

    Think Yak likes playing on this line? Jezzuz…he’s possessed

  107. Kmart99 says:

    Keep Yak Drain Ebs together until they go cold

  108. G Money says:

    Man, absolutely loving the puck intercepting anticipation from Yak this game. Wow.

  109. VanOil says:

    Kmart99:
    Keep Yak Drain Ebs together until they go cold

    They are getting more ice time than Hall’s line. Coaches must have liked wining the other night.

  110. Gerta Rauss says:

    BlacqueJacque,

    That’s an awful lot of certainty considering Eberle’s injuries were well documented. Eberle is not above criticism ,he may have been one of the mopers,I don’t know, and unless you’re in the dressing room, neither do you.

  111. Pouzar says:

    Down 4-2 but goddamn it’s entertaining.

  112. G Money says:

    Ference-Schultz on the ice together, with predictable results.

  113. Dicky94 says:

    That was a pick on Eberle that should have been called. Come on refs.

  114. Pouzar says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    BlacqueJacque,

    That’s an awful lot of certainty considering Eberle’s injuries were well documented. Eberle is not above criticism ,he may have been one of the mopers,I don’t know, and unless you’re in the dressing room, neither do you.

    Eberle can’t even raise the damn puck. We just saw it a second ago again.

  115. Lowetide says:

    If Yakupov ends up being a crazy ‘dog will hunt’ aggressive forechecker sky’s the limit. He could score 20 on turnovers.

  116. Derek says:

    Yak is still an adventure at times in all three zones, but I can’t reconcile how someone could watch him create 3 or 4 scoring chances a game and not believe that one day he’ll be an impact player.

    I see Purcell terrible every game I watch, which has been mercifully few this season. The guy is worse along the boards in the defensive zone than a raw rookie.

  117. vangolf says:

    It is criminal that Yak has no points to show for his night…best I’ve seen him this year.

  118. Zangetsu says:

    Gordies Elbow:
    #McDavid

    #Benson

    This, Cole Benson is a stud. He feasts on the dreams of children. The oilers would be fools not to sign him right meow.

  119. G Money says:

    Billy Jaffe explaining why that holding the call penalty was justified.

    Hey Billy – then why not show Wingels carrying Scrivens’ stick all the way behind and around the net?

  120. Kitchener says:

    Klefbom + Yak = Exciting.

    Lowe/MacT need to convince #94 to let Pitlick stay in his basement while in Edmonton. If Pitlick could just learn to score from inside the blue paint, he’d have a career.

  121. Pouzar says:

    So when does Klef get sent down to continue his development?

  122. Gerta Rauss says:

    Pouzar,

    Was he moping..?

  123. G Money says:

    Couture’s nickname is “Cooch”? Yeesh.

    I prefer rat-faced bastard.

  124. jp says:

    Lowetide:
    If Yakupov ends up being a crazy ‘dog will hunt’ aggressive forechecker sky’s the limit. He could score 20 on turnovers.

    We’re witnessing some nice bits of the future tonight (thinking of Draisaitl and Klefbom as well).

  125. Pouzar says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    Pouzar,

    Was he moping..?

    No but I did see some lollygaging.
    And he did hit the post.

  126. jzed says:

    Pavelsky, “opportunities aren’t there, but at least the puck’s going in”..
    Oil: the opportunities are there, but the puck isn’t going in. Yak trying to change our karma.

  127. Lowetide says:

    If Klefbom can get his luger on target, he might score 10 a year.

  128. PaperDesigner says:

    I am actually enjoying watching this game. I think having won the last one, it takes off the edge of feeling desperate for them to actually walk out with a win.

    I dunno. It seems like there’s always at least one team that beats the percentages all season. Every game that passes with yet another loss in which they look relatively good makes the possibility of this lasting all season progressively more plausible.

    What makes me nervous is if this is a decent team enjoying incredibly poor luck, I’m not sure the management can be trusted to sort the baby from the bathwater.

  129. fifthcartel says:

    When did Klefbom acquire this shot? Was anyone aware of this?

    I thought the report on him was he had minimal offense to his game.

  130. PaperDesigner says:

    Lowetide:
    If Klefbom can get his luger on target, he might score 10 a year.

    Yeah, I’m impressed with his game. He looks like he’s ready for permanent NHL employment.

    I would like to see both him and Marincin on the roster for the last half of the season.

  131. G Money says:

    PaperDesigner,

    Bad luck can last all season, just the way good luck can.

    But I don’t think it was all bad luck early.

    On the other hand, this recent run of slightly better results doesn’t look like “changed luck” or “reversion” to me – there is something subtly but noticeably better about this team in some critical areas of the game. (traffic, shots, physicality).

  132. PaperDesigner says:

    fifthcartel:
    When did Klefbom acquire this shot? Was anyone aware of this?

    I thought the report on him was minimal offense would come with him.

    The book on him, I think, was that he always had the LOOK of a player who could provide some offense, but the scoresheet never seemed all that complimentary.

    That may have had a lot to do with him playing a pro league every year since his draft season.

  133. PaperDesigner says:

    G Money:
    PaperDesigner,

    Bad luck can last all season, just the way good luck can.

    But I don’t think it was all bad luck early.

    On the other hand, this recent run of slightly better results doesn’t look like “changed luck” or “reversion” to me – there is something subtly but noticeably better about this team in some critical areas of the game.(traffic, shots, physicality).

    I think they are not a good team per se… but they probably deserve to be in the range of the 20th best record in the NHL.

    I agree they have looked better, though.

  134. Pouzar says:

    One day….there will be no Ference or Lolly G.

    Sorry but I have an irrational dislike for both. We can do better right now and I wanna hurt puppies.

  135. Post Morty says:

    Draidaigle with a nice back heck there.

  136. Lowetide says:

    Leon’s nights are getting brighter.

  137. G Money says:

    Hall needed to bury that. Those are the critical failures haunting this team (and I’m not picking on Hall, just an example of a more widespread issue).

    Ference is just a nightmare. For a veteran, he sure gets the rookie yips easily.

  138. godot10 says:

    fifthcartel:
    When did Klefbom acquire this shot? Was anyone aware of this?

    I thought the report on him was he had minimal offense to his game.

    He had it at the World Junior.

    Klefbom has been “cursed” by always being the best defensive defensemen on his team, so he has always been used in a defensive role.

    Just consider Nelson in OKC. You have Klefbom who can play defense and Hunt who can only sort of play defense. Who do you play on the power play? The guy who can only sort of play defense. So Klefbom kills penalties and Brad Hunt gets to play the power play. That is the story of Klefbom’s “offfensive” career. He has always been more valuable in a defensive role.

  139. Gerta Rauss says:

    godot10: He had it at the World Junior.

    Klefbom has been “cursed” by always being the best defensive defensemen on his team, so he has always been used in a defensive role.

    Just consider Nelson in OKC.You have Klefbom who can play defense and Hunt who can only sort of play defense.Who do you play on the power play?The guy who can only sort of play defense.So Klefbom kills penalties and Brad Hunt gets to play the power play.That is the story of Klefbom’s “offfensive” career.He has always been more valuable in a defensive role.

    Maybe with the dearth of options on this club, Klef will see more PP time. I still don’t understand why Petry doesn’t see more PP time, he too, has a nice slapper

  140. geowal says:

    PaperDesigner: I think they are not a good team per se… but they probably deserve to be in the range of the 20th best record in the NHL.

    I agree they have looked better, though.

    20th….ah to dream!

  141. G Money says:

    Man. Ference. There are no words.

  142. TemujinBC says:

    helluva backcheck by Drai there. Great stuff

  143. Captain's Log says:

    Pouzar,

    It’s not irrational. They are a lot of good reasons to dislike both of them (as hockey players).

    Considering the Sharks are missing their top minute muncher and two other bodies the Oilers should be putting a lot more pressure on them.

  144. G Money says:

    Leon’s a better defender than Ference.

  145. Pouzar says:

    Captain’s Log:
    Pouzar,

    It’s not irrational. They are a lot of good reasons to dislike both of them (as hockey players).

    Considering the Sharks are missing their top minute muncher and two other bodies the Oilers should be putting a lot more pressure on them.

    How bad do they suck? I forgot about Little Nikky

  146. jzed says:

    Lots of Pitlick finishing hard checks on San Josey D needed, hope it becomes contagious

  147. geowal says:

    Really liked that not-half-assed pass by Klefbom to fayne

  148. Post Morty says:

    Need some puck luck soon.

  149. Captain's Log says:

    Is it just me or were the Oilers looking much better when Petry was playing every second shift (almost)? His ice time has dropped from 9:34 in the first to 6:59 in the second and 3:10 so far more than halfway through the third.

    Watching Stalock stop the puck the Oilers should just be throwing everything at him. All kinds of crazy rebounds.

  150. G Money says:

    Captain’s Log,

    Given how lively the boards are, the idea of shooting it off the boards next to the net (which the Oilers were doing at Rexall) when there’s no other play would be a smart idea too.

  151. G Money says:

    Post Morty,

    Lot of “not half assing” going on the last few games.

  152. TemujinBC says:

    lots of pressure there, and all because Klefbom jumped up, batted down the puck and kept it in the offensive zone.

    Man this feels like a game the Oil should get a point out of.

  153. G Money says:

    Is it just me or are an awful lot of SJ defensive plays suspiciously similar to hooks, holds, slashes, and interference?

  154. Pouzar says:

    Typical.

  155. G Money says:

    G Money,

    Oh, and tripping.

  156. Derek says:

    A nice play by ference completely nullified by the fact that he throws it to an open point.

  157. Gerta Rauss says:

    That’s too bad, this doesn’t look like a 5-2 game to me

  158. TemujinBC says:

    Wellp

    Lots to like tonight.

    #consolationprize

    :-/

  159. BeerMe says:

    Worst giveaway of the entire NHL season. Petry

  160. G Money says:

    We’ve seen this story a lot, but I still like the effort, the gameplan, and the Drai Yak Ebs line.

    Somehow this team has to find a way to score more than two.

  161. jp says:

    Well that’s about the nicest 5-2 loss I can recall.

  162. jzed says:

    San Josey is going nowhere this year. The Bomb ate Petry’s lunch tonight.

  163. Bulging Twine says:

    Lowetide:
    Jim Matheson ‏@NHLbyMatty 3m3 minutes ago

    Canadian Olympic team D-man Marc-Edouard Vlasic was hit hard by Pitlick late in 1st and hasn’t returned for SJ.#oilers.

    Is that the third guy this season Pitlick has injured with a Bodycheck?!

  164. Bulging Twine says:

    2 years in a row MacTavish has cast his lot with Arcobello as one of his centers.

  165. kooler says:

    Hendricks played good tonight…how did he do in the circle?

    Pouliot on the first with Hall and RNH will be nice. 2nd line was good, Yak was a blood hound…just has to get inside the dots with his shots, his angles are just too sharp but effort is 110%. Gordon takes over the 3rd line with Purcell and Perron. Hendricks Arco and Pitlick on 4th? Maybe Lander gets called up and run a 4th line of centres.

  166. Lowetide says:

    Bulging Twine: Is that the third guy this season Pitlick has injured with a Bodycheck?!

    Think so.;

  167. Bank Shot says:

    jp:
    Well that’s about the nicest 5-2 loss I can recall.

    Finally the “Exciting Last Place Hockey” everyone was looking forward to 5 years ago.

  168. RexLibris says:

    I just had a look at the standings and I had a flashback to around this time of year during the 2009-2010.

    There was talk of Karmanos being very interested in drafting Seguin because he also owned the Plymouth Whalers, but that Taylor Hall might complement Eric Staal quite well.

    For a time it was neck and neck between the Oilers and Hurricanes and I was concerned that Carolina would sink just that much lower and secure the 1st overall pick.

    Tonight, the Oilers and Hurricanes are tied with 19pts apiece, the Oilers 30th on account of gp as both teams glance covetously at a two highly-regarded forward prospects.

    Plus ca change…

  169. RexLibris says:

    Hall, Pitlick, Nugent-Hopkins, Ference and Petry all 60% or more in Fenwick%For tonight.

    Arcobello, Hendricks, Gazdic, Aulie and Pinizzotto were the only ones below 50%.

    CorsiFor/60 had only four players above 70.

    In ascending order it was Perron, Ference, (both 70s) and Nugent-Hopkins and Hall (both in the 100s).

    The process looks golden from here.

    Now, about the C depth…

  170. El Duderino says:

    Lowetide:
    I always liked David Perron, going back to draft day.

    Yes. I clearly remember you saying that the Oilers should take Perron moments before they took ???????–that name escapes me but time has proven your pick was better than their pick. Hey maybe you’re the smartest guy in the room.

  171. Alpine says:

    El Duderino,

    Riley Nash? Funnily enough, he might be pretty useful right about now.

  172. El Duderino says:

    Pouzar:
    One day….there will be no Ference or Lolly G.

    Sorry but I have an irrational dislike for both. We can do better right now and I wanna hurt puppies.

    I don’t think it’s irrational. I too am peed right off (PDRO) at them.

  173. El Duderino says:

    Alpine:
    El Duderino,

    Riley Nash? Funnily enough, he might be pretty useful right about now.

    That’s the guy! The Oilers’ strategy was to draft a guy who they knew didn’t want to play for them so they could get a higher first pick in later years. Added to the two picks they traded to be able to draft Nash, which was higher than his consensus ranking anyway, was quite brilliant. Sort of like Gallipoli.

  174. jp says:

    Bank Shot: Finally the “Exciting Last Place Hockey” everyone was looking forward to 5 years ago.

    Progress is progress.

  175. Lowetide says:

    El Duderino: Yes. I clearly remember you saying that the Oilers should take Perron moments before they took ???????–that name escapes me but time has proven your pick was better than their pick.Hey maybe you’re the smartest guy in the room.

    My ideal day would see Lowe pick Voracek or Gagner at #6, grab David Perron or Ryan McDonagh at #15 and then deal the pick at 30 with Matt Greene for a veteran blueliner.

    http://lowetide.ca/2007/06/22/what-a-day/

  176. book¡je says:

    Other than scoring, defense, and goaltending, the Oilers are doing really well!

  177. TemujinBC says:

    Lowetide: My ideal day would see Lowe pick Voracek or Gagner at #6, grab David Perron or Ryan McDonagh at #15 and then deal the pick at 30 with Matt Greene for a veteran blueliner.

    http://lowetide.ca/2007/06/22/what-a-day/

    Cherepanov at 17 to the Rangers. I haven’t thought about that kid for a while.

    Man.

  178. Henry says:

    Lowetide: My ideal day would see Lowe pick Voracek or Gagner at #6, grab David Perron or Ryan McDonagh at #15 and then deal the pick at 30 with Matt Greene for a veteran blueliner.

    http://lowetide.ca/2007/06/22/what-a-day/

    Taking PK Subban at 30 and keeping Greene might have been a better move.

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