DUCKS AT OILERS, G30 2014-15

The Edmonton Oilers are back from their road trip (0-2) and will attempt to improve their home record (5-9-1) against the de facto No. 1 team in the NHL at this time. The 2014-15 Oilers are bad in a lot of categories:

  • No. 28 in goals-per-game (2.17)
  • No. 29 in goals-against-per-game (3.34)
  • No. 27 in PP % (12.6)
  • No. 19 in PK% (79.8)
  • No. 23 in shots-per-game (29)
  • No. 15 in shots-against-per-game (29.5)
  • No. 19 in faceoff % (49.4)
  • No. 20 in missed shots (327)
  • No. 16 in shots (842)
  • No. 16 in shots-against (855)
  • No. 14 in CF% All (50.8)
  • No. 18 in Fenwick % All (50.0)
  • No. 30 in PDO (96.1)

Interesting set of numbers (nhl.com and hockey-reference) for this team. Corsi For, Fenwick and shots on goal (plus per game) all look average and they’re not getting outshot by much this year. The gap between goals and goals-against seems very severe based on the other numbers and that is confirmed by the PDO number.

WINNING

kid_ish chartMatt Eakin (@Kid_Ish) tweeted this to show the strong season (with a perky uptick) being enjoyed by Anaheim but it works for the other Pac-7 teams too. The Oilers, Coyotes and Flames (lost three in a row now) are heading in a downward direction with Edmonton the Valley team in the entire project. It’s a cool way to track teams and show the massive gap between the good and bad teams. Hi Calgary, see you when you get here.

eakins smiling

 THIRTY WINS

I think that’s near the ‘line in the sand’ for Dallas Eakins. If I’m reading the tea leaves correctly, the players are onside with the coach and we know Craig MacTavish is extremely loyal. He hired Eakins, has given him some not all roster tweaks needed, and some of those additions have been poor so far. I suspect MacTavish remains in charge and that the coach has cover if the results are there.

  • MacT: “So the positive things for me are really the accountability I’m hearing come out of the dressing room at a level that I haven’t heard. I think our roster has much more capability in terms of our ability to win hockey games and close out games. We’ve got to execute better. We make mistakes that young teams and developing teams make and we don’t often get reciprocated by the opposition. A lot of times that’s enough to turn the game one way or the other. But I think it’s always darkest before the dawn, and I think that it’s a pretty dark time right now. With some of the improvement in our execution and our accountability we’re going to be a team that is going to get turned around.” Source

If Eakins gets to 30 wins, I think the coaching staff stays. What changes? A more aggressive summer gets real solutions in goal and on defense (I’m less convinced at center because MacT is now officially stubborn at the position. When MacT makes up his mind, Toby Petersen ends up on the power play) and Daryl Katz writes a letter to the fans in August guaranteeing the playoffs (because Oilers).

petry3

ON THE OTHER HAND

If the Oilers can’t go 6-6-2 in December then I think the organization probably deals their UFA’s and maybe more (depending on return). I think we can all agree that not signing Jeff Petry was a mistake and that the organization is always often stubborn once they make a decision. If the season is lost and it’s another “free fall for No. 1 overall” then I’d think Jeff Petry gets dealt. He should get an amazing return based on what is currently available and may be one of several Oilers leaving between now and the deadline:

  • Jeff Petry should get you a second-round pick even in a deep draft. Fair? Maybe a little more but not a first-round selection.
  • David Perron would be a nice add for a contending team. I hope he stays, really like Perron as a player.
  • Viktor Fasth has an even-strength SP of .906 and it’s improving. He should have value by the deadline.
  • Boyd Gordon would fetch a nice return and could sewer the Oilers roster in a Petry kind of way. He has one year left on his deal at $3M.
  • Keith Aulie has played well and would be an inexpensive add for a team looking for depth at the deadline.

I don’t expect the Oilers to trade five guys at the deadline but we haven’t heard much about contract talks with Petry. If the club decides not to sign him, then a deadline trade is certain.

macgregor1

GET YOUR RESUME’S IN ORDER

 

I think we’ll see more change in scouting this summer (pro scouts sooner than later, amateur scouts fired/not renewed after the draft) and suspect the club will draft a big player at D or C with the lottery pick. McDavid, Eichel, Hanifan, Zacha, Strome, that kind of thing. Edmonton won’t draft a winger in the first round, probably not the second round either although Paul Bittner will be tempting in the second and third rounds if he falls that far at the draft. My current bet? Oilers draft Hanifan. My current top 10:

TOP 10 DRAFT PROSPECTS,  2015

  1. C Connor McDavid, Erie Otters (OHL) Insane talent, franchise cornerstone, empire builder.
  2. C Jack Eichel, Boston U (NCAA) Speed, strength and skill in a wonderful package. Best consolation prize of your lifetime.
  3. D Noah Hanifin, Boston College (NCAA) 6.03, 205 world-class speed, exceptional offensive skill. Similar to Seth Jones.
  4. D Oliver Kylington, Farjestad (SEL) 6.0, 174. Two-way defender with terrific speed and an across the board skill set.
  5. C Dylan Strome, Erie Otters (OHL) Speed, shot, creativity, smarts. Lots of PP (McDavid) points.
  6. C Pavel Zacha, Sarnia Sting (OHL) Huge forward with skill, work ethic and ability along the wall.
  7. D Zach Werenski, Michigan (NCAA). Sound defender with outstanding offensive ability. Quality in all three zones. Source
  8. C Mitch Marner, London Knights (OHL) Tremendous skater, very skilled. Undersized. Trending.
  9. C Nick Merkley, Kelowna (WHL). Powerful skater with plus playmaking ability. Crazy offensive season.
  10. C Mathew Barzal, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL) Intelligent offensive player with exceptional passing ability and speed.

If the Oilers pick No. 3, it’s Hanifan. After that, I suspect it could be any of Kylington, Strome, Zacha or Werenski at No. 4 overall. If we’re following along with MacT at the draft table, think big and up the middle.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

weld22

At 10, TSN 1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Steve Lansky, Bigmouth Sports. Storm in Toronto, Leafs playing well, saying goodbye to legends.
  • Paul Almeida, Saturday Sports Extra. Oilers tonight and through December’s end.
  • Alex Thomas, Oilers Rig. Game preview and do they offload to load up?
  • Matt Eakin (@Kid_Ish) talks Anaheim and how are they getting this done?

10-1260 via text, @Lowetide_ on twitter. It’s Friday! Going to be fun.

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426 Responses to "DUCKS AT OILERS, G30 2014-15"

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  1. Gerta Rauss says:

    spoiler: It affects performance. Anybody who has played the diabolical game of golf knows what I am talking about

    Oh, I know

    I did a 12 day golf trip through Scotland this summer and was fortunate to play the Old Course at St Andrews. My buddy got some video footage of me missing a putt on the back 9…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7jw9G4oEVDU#t=20

  2. geowal says:

    When are we catching the flames again? Oh right, we aren’t. But they made a bad signing once so we can feel good about ourselves.

  3. geowal says:

    Woodguy:
    smellyglove,

    The only thing that should be said about the Calgary Flames by Oilers fans is, “This is what competent management looks like.

    $2.9MM x 3 years for Deryk Engelland says hello.

    It also says “hahahahahahahhahahahahaha”

    There’s a difference between incompetent management and infallible. The flames are not infallible, they are competent. They don’t pull out every stop they can think of to fail.

  4. Maverick says:

    Woodguy: This year 7-18-5 19pts
    Last year 10-18-2 22pts

    http://www.hockey-reference.com/boxscores/2013/12/6/

    Wow, just checked the last few years as I was curious because of Woodguy, and the last year of Renney they were 30-14-13-3 for 31 points GF 83 GA 80. That’s 3 years ago! When looking at that roster and that defense and taking account the wonder kids have had 3 years more experience….*Sigh* (going back to bed)

  5. hunter1909 says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    I wonder how muchlonger Katz is going to put up with this. I know MacT preached patience last week(and Katz himself in his letter to fans last year), but this is approaching farce at this point.

    Imagine you have a magic power. You can travel back in time to your old college frat house – the place where you had the only real fun you’re likely to have in your entire life. There, always waiting, in a scene mirroring ANIMAL HOUSE – your fave buddies are there. I did say this is a magic power, right? It’s also the Big Man on Campus, Big Jock on Campus fraternity.

    You’re desperate, because once it goes your youth disappears forever.

    Yet now, the tables are turned. Why? Because during the last 25+ years you’ve become obscenely, stinking rich. Where as before you were the nerd “allowed” to hang out with the jocks, now it’s you who call the shots. And how!

    Nevertheless, you still need this situation. despite the fact you get whatever you want in life. You’ve put together a hand picked collection of your BFF’s to run this frat house – all with something unheard of: jobs for life. All the BFF’s need to do in order to live like Medieval Norman Barons is one thing only: Worship at the feet of your Superego.

    Now you’re building a brand new frat house. One built entirely for the gratification of your Superego. You’re planning to take all of your BFF’s out of the old frat house, and put them in this new, $480 million house which on opening night will give even Roman emperors a run for their money. Just think. It will be YOUR house. Everyone will be coming to see YOU in YOUR $480 million house.

    All it needs now, is a younger set of jocks.

    The BFFs have not sat on their hands. They’ve collected one of the best under 25 cores in the NHL. The new house is being built and soon will be ready for everyone in the NHL universe to come and worship at the feet of your Superego. On that night you will triumph in the manner of a Roman Emperor, who incidentally called themselves gods. On that night you WILL become as a Roman god.

    On opening night, provided the under 25 core delivers, Your Superego will gush forth a 200 foot high gusher, just like a massive oil well. But it won’t be oil. Instead it will be 200 foot high gusher of your Superego’s sperm. The mother of all orgasms, befitting a 21st century god.

    You still have problems, before this glorious night. The BFF’s have the mob screaming for their blood. Your BFF’s are 100% safe you assure them. They are every bit as important to you as blood kin. The mob eventually should settle down, or so it should be.

    You then write the mob an open letter. Your Superego is offering up the mob a taste of Your glorious plan. The mob are no more than so many germ sized entities, normally not worth worrying about, but even germs have the power to do damage. You tell them what they want to hear. You write how much you love exactly what they love, despite the fact you don’t mean any of it. Gods are under no obligation to explain themselves to anyone.

    Still the mob howls for the blood of your BFF’s. Still you assure everyone they are safe. The howling continues, and continues, and news of this has now spread all over the NHL, who 100% agree with the mob.

    You and your Superego didn’t become obscenely rich by accident. Your Superego has no loyalty to anyone.

    Your Superego now faces a new, terrible idea. Instead of a 200 foot high blast of Your sperm thundering up toward the sky, elevating you to god status, you’re starting to ponder something strange: too terrible to contemplate: A giant public Failgasm.

    THIS is when Katz cleans house.

  6. lance says:

    Angry mob. There’s no angry mob because Oilers Inc is a corporation and not a government. Katz owes us nothing, he can keep his cronies indefinitely and your ONLY choice is to stop paying. Anyone still financing this fiasco should be ashamed of themselves.

    Amarillo Armadillos are apparently defunct. Now they have USHL and seats at centre cost $13. Next home game is Dec 19. We found a local Goodwill, I’m going t see if I can find an Armadillo sweater and mYbe drop off the lAst of my oiler gear.

    I do love to watch a train wreck tho.

  7. Kmart99 says:

    Leave them in power up until MacT steps up to the mic and says ” The Edmonton Oilers are so proud to select, from the Erie Otters, Connor McDavid.”. Two hours later, give them the pink slip. While I desperately want Connor McDavid on this roster, I also desperately want Kevin Lowe and his ridiculous ego to fail. In order for that to happen, he has to be fired as soon as McDavid is drafted. I realize 20% is a slim shot at the phenom, but until the oilers don’t win the lottery, I’ll assume he’s Oilers property.

    Sidenote: Does Katz honestly trust the development of Connor McDavid in the hands of this crew?

  8. PhrankLee says:

    Thanks Hunter! I tried to roll through the comments yesterday but LT site was a bad mile of road last night. Laggy and impossible. I turned the game to mute and enjoyed a couple chess matches with my son while the suck glow bathed the room with, well, suck.
    Boys, this is embarrassing. It is particularly telling reading Roddy’s tweets. I think the Oilers forgot to include Twitter in his NDC. Boy will the hockey world be on fire when that runs out and he publishes the book.
    He has to have no respect for the management and ownership squad to say such things. Because it hurts the cteam and city. The Oilers play is actually hurting the city.

    If any of you younger fans want to know how much Rod Phillips meant to the city and organization I can tell you that before he retired I still streamed his play by play with the tv on mute even if there were major sync problems.

    He has a retired jersey hanging in the rafters. Our former announcer.

    He has princely station, not that I like that, but he does.

    When we were 9 or 10 and gathering around the radio in the basement with my buddies to hear the oilers play by play, everything was alright. I only really remember negativity when Tim Kyte was getting fed Dave Brown rights to the face while on his knees. (Roddy felt it unsporting)
    Every single game he stood by the Oilers.
    Most games came via radio. We had no such thing then as even cable.
    My point being that Rod knows where all the bodies are buried and I would be very nervous about pissing him off too badly. Jesus why aren’t one of you smart guys ghost writing a book with him?! I would so Amazon that straight to my house!!

  9. Kmart99 says:

    Renney and Kruger were a great tandem, Klowe must’ve known full well that he’d never acquire Connor with those two at the helm.

  10. Woodguy says:

    Maverick: Wow, just checked the last few years as I was curious because of Woodguy, and the last year of Renney they were 30-14-13-3 for 31 points GF 83 GA 80.That’s 3 years ago! When looking at that roster and that defense and taking account the wonder kids have had 3 years more experience….*Sigh* (going back to bed)

    That’s the year Khabby put up .940 SV% in his first 11 games.

    Oiler’s 5v5 SV% over the first 30 games that year = .932
    Oiler’s 5v5 SH% over the first 30 games that year = 8.7
    PDO = 1.019

    So they were running fairly hot.

    What does concern me though is the disappearance of the SH%, both 5v5 and 5v4.

    Ostensibly they’ve added better players since then.

    Here’s the Oilers 5v5 SH% since Hall’s rookie year:

    Renney 7.50
    Renney 7.98
    Krueger 8.08
    Eakins 7.69
    Eakins 6.64

    Here’s the Oilers 5v5 SH% since Hall’s rookie year:

    Renney 12.06
    Renney 16.07
    Krueger 16.86
    Eakins 12.28
    Eakins 8.87

    5v4 in particular is a serious concern.

    I wonder if running out of fucks to give for the players is impacting that?

  11. Woodguy says:

    I just looked at Khabby’s first 9 games in 2011/2012

    His 5v5 SV% was .9637

    Lordy.

    Also,

    Waronice’s date range feature is the best thing to happen to hockey fancystats since Gabe built his site.

    Its awesome.

  12. PhrankLee says:

    Woodguy: 5v4 in particular is a serious concern.

    This goofy drop pass they use to enter the zone on PP…

    Anyone know where they got this from?

    Anyone else think it is brutal?

    Anyone else think it probably worked on the Marlies?

    These PP shifts are WORSE than MacT’s PP. That’s bad as bad gets, in my opinion.

  13. Woodguy says:

    PhrankLee: This goofy drop pass they use to enter the zone on PP…

    Anyone know where they got this from?

    Anyone else think it is brutal?

    Anyone else think it probably worked on the Marlies?

    These PP shifts are WORSE than MacT’s PP. That’s bad as bad gets, in my opinion.

    I think that came from from San Jose’s playbook.

  14. Kmart99 says:

    Woodguy: I think that came from from San Jose’s playbook.
    DET did it for years as well.

  15. Kmart99 says:

    David Perron firing harpoons of truth again. Oilers always play well when they are losing. It’s much harder to do when you’re up by one or tied.
    Too bad it’s out of your control, it’s the other team sitting back, not you playing better.

  16. rich says:

    Woodguy: I think that came from from San Jose’s playbook.

    Also came from LA’s playbook. Haven’t seen them this season, but the last couple of years the King’s have been using that approach as well. Chicago uses it from time to time too.

  17. Woodguy says:

    rich,

    Kmart99,

    SJS-DET connection makes sense.

    From McLellan’s wiki:

    In 2005, Mike Babcock selected McLellan to serve as his assistant with the Detroit Red Wings. In Detroit, McLellan was tasked with handling the Red Wings’ forwards and managing the team’s power play, as well as reporting player performance to head coach Babcock

    LAK sees SJS destroy on the 5v4 so they copy.

    Tyler was a big fan of SJS’s 5v4 play…..

    When executed correctly it freezes the opposition and opens up a big hole to gain entry with a 3-2 or even 3-1 advantage on one side.

    Executing it correctly however……

  18. oliveoilers says:

    Kmart99:
    David Perron firing harpoons of truth again.Oilers always play well when they are losing.It’s much harder to do when you’re up by one or tied.
    Too bad it’s out of your control, it’s the other team sitting back, not you playing better.

    Then David should post on here and learn about score effects! The Ducks were NEVER in danger of losing that game.

  19. oliveoilers says:

    PhrankLee: This goofy drop pass they use to enter the zone on PP…

    Anyone know where they got this from?

    Anyone else think it is brutal?

    Anyone else think it probably worked on the Marlies?

    These PP shifts are WORSE than MacT’s PP. That’s bad as bad gets, in my opinion.

    Yeah, just like that goofy drop pass to Getzlaf in the opening minute of the second…..correctly executed!

  20. Pouzar says:

    geowal:
    When are we catching the flames again? Oh right, we aren’t. But they made a bad signing once so we can feel good about ourselves.

    Interesting timing.

  21. Woodguy says:

    Teddy Peckman (captain of the Wichita Thunder in the ECHL these days) throws a hit that breaks the glass

    http://yahoohockey.tumblr.com/post/105090862242/a-glass-shattering-hit-during-friday-nights

    “ATTA BOY TEDDY!”

    *THUMBS UP*

  22. oliveoilers says:

    Boy, those Ducks sure were lucky in the first period last night.

  23. Woodguy says:

    geowal: There’s a difference between incompetent management and infallible. The flames are not infallible, they are competent.They don’t pull out every stop they can think of to fail.

    But fuck the Flames.

    Seriously.

    Fuck them.

  24. godot10 says:

    The “coach” throws Draisaitl under the bus in the post game presser. Yep, the “monster” that he has been trying to hide all year snuck out of from under the bed last night.

  25. oliveoilers says:

    Woodguy: But fuck the Flames.

    Seriously.

    Fuck them.

    On this, we shall always agree.

  26. PhrankLee says:

    Wow the oilers non-reaction to Getzlaf has gone viral. Nobody is really saying what a shitty thing it was for him to do. They are all furious we did absolutely nothing.
    http://gfycat.com/ZigzagDefinitiveIcelandgull

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