THE BEATINGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MORALE IMPROVES

You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows and you don’t need a forensic audit to know this is broken. The Edmonton Oilers are beyond belief in terms of the hockey and that’s the only product they sell. A cynic would say that the organization has calculated (correctly) that season ticket holders won’t give up their tickets for next year in order to hold their spot for the new arena.

I don’t remember the last time I enjoyed an Oilers game but it was awhile ago. Each game has a predictable start (“HOW did THAT go in?”) and is followed by a death march to 60. Rinse, repeat. The comments after the game are becoming more and more strained (Taylor Hall, who attempted to block a shot with his face, is a beaten man at 23) because everyone knows which way the wind blows.

No help is coming. The Edmonton Oilers are the kings of tank battles. What a complete mess.

ACTUAL NHL PLAYERS

For fun, let’s add up the actual NHL players in action last night:

  • Hall—Nuge—Eberle: That’s three. Whatever else these three men may or may not bring, they’re all bona fide.
  • Yakupov—Draisaitl—Pitlick: Three works in progress. I don’t think an incoming coach would dress any of these men, given the choice.
  • Perron—Arcobello—Purcell: Two more, as Perron plus Purcell qualify. Arco is a fine utility player but is way too high in the order. This is Gary Sutherland, this is Doug Flynn, this is Tom Foley.
  • Hendricks—Gordon—Pinizzotto: Two more, as Gordon and Hendricks absolutely qualify in specific roles. No disrespect to Pinizzotto, I like his work ethic, but this is an expansion level player.

Seven forwards, seven of twelve. Just over half.

  • Ference—Petry: That’s two. I thought they played pretty well last night.
  • Hunt—Schultz: I don’t want to talk about it. Stubborn stubborn stubborn MacT.
  • Klefbom—Fayne: One. Klefbom is trying to gain traction and isn’t having success recently. Time to send him down, call up Marincin.

That’s three. Three of six.

  • Scrivens and Fasth: It should be two, seriously. It is none. I don’t blame MacT for making the bet but can sure as hell criticize the fact he’s done nothing to improve the position all year long.

So, 10 of 20 who dress every night. One half of an NHL roster. No help is coming. The Edmonton Oilers are the kings of tank battles. What a complete mess. The Edmonton Oilers are a bad hockey team and they make decisions for reasons other than winning.

One final thing: They’ve told us they don’t trust the amateur scouts and the GM is behind the bench. Who is scouting the WJ’s? No help is coming. The Edmonton Oilers are the kings of tank battles. What a complete mess. The Edmonton Oilers are a bad hockey team and they make decisions for reasons other than winning.

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109 Responses to "THE BEATINGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MORALE IMPROVES"

  1. thepeetso says:

    A new day, a new nadir.

  2. Woodguy says:

    Oh the product on the ice is frightful

    And the decisions on Dmen are spiteful

    Wrecking their kids before they can grow

    The Oilers blow!
    The Oilers blow!
    The Oilers blow!

  3. Kmart99 says:

    I still maintain that tanking this year is more valuable than finishing 9th if you end up with either Eichel or McDavid. The scariest thing is that I think MacT might trade McDavid #becauseOilers.

  4. Johnny says:

    That is a great point, what the hell is the GM doing behind the bench while the WJ’s are going on????

    Disaster.

  5. David says:

    Everyone said Eakins is safe and then the losing continued. Now everyone has been saying that MacTavish is safe. But how much losing would it take for him to get ousted in season. 15 straight losses? Winning 2 in 25? Because those are possible. Maybe even likely. I’ve never seen such a bad hockey team.

  6. metallicat says:

    I’ve stopped watching (well last night wasn’t by choice…gamecentre wasn’t working and I’m in van city at a house with no TV). No point anymore. Not worth the stress.

  7. LP says:

    Wow.

    I don’t remember the last post that was as negative as this one. Don’t get me wrong, the Oilers deserve the criticism, it’s just…. this site has always been ‘uplifting’ in terms of the Oilers.

    (of course, this is completely understandable given the shit show)

    Now it seems even LT has reached his limit of tolerable mediocrity.

    This team is a lot easier to follow if you stop watching the games. I speak from experience…

    Sigh.

    Is it too early to start drinking? (thoughts go out to LT)

  8. Pajamah says:

    A relationship is damaged when parties involved are angry or upset

    A relationship is broken when those involved stop caring.

    My Oiler involvement is now down to twitter, and Lowetide. I simply can’t be bothered to get angry at my TV any more. From the decisions Jultz makes, to the decisions coaches make to play him, to the decisions the GM makes to pay him. No one can possibly be that blind or stupid. This organization is catastrophically inept. And while my relationship to this team is badly damaged, I’m worried it is very close to broken.

  9. LP says:

    Woodguy:
    Oh the product on the ice is frightful

    And the decisions on Dmen are spiteful

    Wrecking their kids before they can grow

    The Oilers blow!
    The Oilers blow!
    The Oilers blow!

    There’s the spirit!!

  10. 36 percent body fat says:

    jordan eberle 35gp 6 goals 20 points, plays with an elite Taylor Hal and a two way Wizard in Nuge.
    and makes 6, a year playing the easiest position in the game

    sam gagner 34 gp 5 goals 17pts playing third line in arizona, as a center the toughest position in hockey.
    We got basically a 6th rounder for him. But lets trade an NHL center/

    Not hard to see who or what the problem is.

    What an entitled, non back checking, point leeching, useless piece of shit

  11. Lowetide says:

    LP:
    Wow.

    I don’t remember the last post that was as negative as this one. Don’t get me wrong, the Oilers deserve the criticism, it’s just…. this site has always been ‘uplifting’ in terms of the Oilers.

    (of course, this is completely understandable given the shit show)

    Now it seems even LT has reached his limit of tolerable mediocrity.

    This team is a lot easier to follow if you stop watching the games. I speak from experience…

    Sigh.

    Is it too early to start drinking? (thoughts go out to LT)

    I’m fine. 🙂 I do think it’s important to discuss this organization’s comfort level with losing. It’s one thing to be a bad team, it’s far worse to be content. And I know there’s a first overall pick at stake but this is beyond the pale.

  12. Woodguy says:

    Here’s the corsi % from last night.

    Was full of score effects, but its interesting that it closely follows LT’s list of Actual NHL players:

    Jeff Petry 67.74
    Taylor Hall 64.29
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 63.33
    Boyd Gordon 62.5
    Andrew Ference 58.62
    Jordan Eberle 57.14
    Teddy Purcell 55.56
    Justin Schultz 54.76
    David Perron 54.55
    Steven Pinizzotto 54.17
    Mark Fayne 50
    Matt Hendricks 47.62
    Oscar Klefbom 47.62
    Tyler Pitlick 47.37
    Mark Arcobello 45.45
    Leon Draisaitl 45
    Nail Yakupov 45
    Brad Hunt 41.67

  13. thebiggestmanintheworld says:

    I’ve stopped watching games, and usually only catch highlights and the commentary here.

    This is beyond pathetic and embarrassing now, IMO.

    My wife….MY WIFE!!!.. would know you need a goalie and more than 2 defenceman to at least compete in the best league in the world!

    Never mind the center debacle!

    These clowns can’t/won’t do any of the things any competent team should do to remain competitive, and it absolutely baffles me.

    So, yeah…..fuck you Lowe. Fuck you MacT. Fuck Howson, and Stu, and everyone else not named Joey.

    You’re killing my love for my team.

    Just stop it.

  14. Bad Seed says:

    I can just see the thinking at Kingsway. Hmmm, we laid down for those other 3 first overalls and they haven’t brought us anywhere, Finally we have a chance at a generational player!
    I’ve been an Oiler fan since 79 & I hope they lose every single game for the rest of the year. We’ll get one of McEichel and finally the rot is cleared out. Win win, if you ask me. Get someone qualified to right this ship.

  15. Hammers says:

    Your number of actual NHL players is probably correct with 2 to add in Pouliot ( but his still injured) plus like it or not Nikitin is an NHL player even if on the bad side (injured ) . What I don’t understand is why they haven’t sent Hunt & Pinzotto back down with Marincin & Lander up and for that matter given Pakirinen another shot . When your this bad You should be giving any AHL player you have a shot .Really what do they have to loose as they never win and its a chance to see if there close or not . Also McT should let Nelson take over and give him full reign on the players .

  16. flyfish1168 says:

    I have a hard time going to work and facing phlegm fans enjoying themselves and having something to cheer about. Yes I can walk and ignore them and tell them to get to work. I don’t I will take it on the chin again for this F***ken dysfunctional organization.

    I wish they really come out and face the music. Out in the real world people can’t be that incompetent and still have a job. what is sad is some of the players careers are wasted not that they are not at fault along with the owner.

    Time for accountability.

  17. verdad2.0 says:

    Isn’t this very simple?
    MacTavish and Lowe must be fired , asap.

  18. godot10 says:

    I doubt McDavid or Eichel will consent to come without a housecleaning, Lowe, MacT, and Howson gone, and a Babcock-type is signed.

    They will force a trade by not signing a contract. If not, they will just endure the two years in Europe (McDavid) or one more year in college and one in Europe (Eichel).

  19. Lois Lowe says:

    So far the highlight of the season is Woodguy channeling Weird Al.

    At this point I am watching the games just to see how bad this can possibly get. I take some perverse pleasure in seeing MacT and Nelson continue to lose games in more and more spectacular ways. Also, now we know for certain it wasn’t Eakins’ fault and that Nelson is not the second coming of Scotty Bowman.

  20. rich says:

    Bad Seed,

    My greatest fear is that everyone is going to say the answer is to bring in another generational talent next fall and that will be the answer.

    There’s another part of this organization philosophy that is just plain broken and that’s allowing teens to learn the game in the NHL. Did it with Gagner, Cogliano, Hall, Nuge, Yak, Draisaitl and possibly next season with Eichel/McDavid. Where is this getting us?

  21. sliderule says:

    So we have three NHL defencemen and no goalies.

    How does it make you feel about next year when we lose Petry our best defenceman.

    How good is that Mathews kid?

  22. LP says:

    Lowetide: I’m fine. I do think it’s important to discuss this organization’s comfort level with losing. It’s one thing to be a bad team, it’s far worse to be content. And I know there’s a first overall pick at stake but this is beyond the pale.

    Well I’m happy to hear that you are ok LT.

    Was worried about you for moment there.

    Seriously, there has to be an explanation for this comfort level with a product such as the Edmonton Oilers.

    My bets are:

    -meddling in management of the hockey ops from higher on up
    -importance on the draft(s) at all costs.
    -waiting on this summer to clean house (regardless of product, obviously)
    -complete incompetence?

    Dark days for Oiler fans indeed.

  23. Bad Seed says:

    rich,

    Everything’s broken with the Oilers. A fuckin’ chimpanzee could get better results. I don’t know how Katz can ignore what’s happening. They go through this forensic audit to find out what we’ve all known for the last 5 years.

  24. verdad2.0 says:

    Does anyone on this blog believe that MacT and Klowe are competent to continue one more day in their current accountablilities?

    All other conjecture about the Oilers is pointless until they leave.

    Every day they continue only does more damage.

    ( BTW, they can take Schultz with them)

  25. frjohnk says:

    Edmonton, Alberta, Canada

    The place NHL goalies go to die.

    Devan Dubnyk Home Plate Save Percentage ( League Average is 85.5%)

    2011-12
    86.90%
    2012-13
    87.40%
    2013-14
    82.40%
    2014-15
    85.50%

    The Swarm fucked him up and took his confidence and put it into a blender. He has nicely bounced back this year. I am happy for him.

    Labarbra was just below league average in both home plate and perimeter shots save %over the last couple of years before coming here last year.

    In 20-13-14 he had a 92 save % from perimeter shots with Edmonton last year. HP save % was 79.3%

    Swarm fucked him over as well. He has bounced back OK with Anaheim.

    Scrivens

    2012-13TO
    83.10%
    2013-14LA
    87.30%
    2013-14ED
    85.20%
    2014-15
    85.10%

    Scrivens is just below league average in home plate save % but when it comes to perimeter shots….
    League average Perimeter Shots save % is 95.6%

    2012-13TO
    96.10%
    2013-14LA
    96%
    2013-14ED
    96%
    2014-15
    91.80%

    Fasth had league average save % home plate and perimeter shots until this year and he has absolutely cratered. This year, Home Plate save % for Fasth is Eighty fucking One %. And he is well below in perimeter shot save % this year as well.

    WOW! Just WOW! What the hell is going with goaltending this year?

    There are 4 decent UFA goalies this year, Dubnyk, Niemmi, Enroth and Nuevirth.

    If I was one of them, I wouldn’t come here for less than 5 million per year for 5 years.

    Because chances are, this will be their last stop.

    This is the place where goalies come to die.

    A goalie graveyard.

  26. Bad Seed says:

    frjohnk,

    Not just a goalie graveyard, a player and coach’s graveyard too.

  27. thepeetso says:

    Bad Seed:
    frjohnk,

    Not just a goalie graveyard, a player and coach’s graveyard too.

    Don’t forget a fan’s.

  28. Manitoba Oilers says:

    In what way is Ference and nhler

  29. fuzzy muppet says:

    This is going to get worse.

    They’ll move Perron and Petry for beans and it’s back to 2009 again.

    Don’t be surprised 5 years from now that they will be rebuilding again.

    We are witnessing first-hand the single worst franchise in sports.

    I’m done watching.

    I look forward to the prospect updates and draft talk so we can discuss which of them this organization will de-value and ruin.

    Happy New Years

  30. PREDICKTER says:

    Manitoba Oilers,

    Well he’s good in the community, you know, captain material.

  31. book¡je says:

    MacT is trying to win. MacT is playing Hunt-Schultz because he believes they can provide a threat from the point. Hunt is there because MacT has one power play – shot from the point – it’s all he knew as coach and all he knows as GM.

    By eye and by stats Hunt-Schultz are terrible at defending which is the critical element of the position. MacT does not understand this. This makes him an absolutly incompetent GM.

  32. Hazwasted says:

    The Hardest part to accept is the lack of ability to asses talent and force the young future of the team play above their current abilities. Hoping a raw rookie could jump in and play centre in the NHL with overwhelming evidence that it never works and even generational talents need time to adjust to the speed and power of the NHL.

    An example is to put a forward line of Yak, Drai and Pitlick out there and support them with the powerhouse defensive team of Schultz/Hunt expecting it to succeed. Two rookies and a struggling player shouldn’t even be on the same line let alone be out there without a strong defensive duo to support them. Even a Peewee coach knows you have to balance things as best you can to help cover and mitigate your weaknesses. Then once it fails you bench the line because your not happy with the result? Insanity!

    No hope for any turnaround when the folks on the internet can better coach the team than the coaches!

    Also, I turned off the game and missed the Hall not responding to the scrum and would be interested to get the opinion of the blog on its significance or was it just a whole bunch of noise over at ON??

  33. Captain Smarmy says:

    Katz loves the boys on the bus. When the new building is ready to be stunk out he will let go all the Oilers of old that were of the supporting cast and he’ll task Wayne, Mark, Grant and Glenn to lead the team into the new tax payer funded building.

    Get ready for a wild ride.

    *Mac, Kevin and Kelly will be put in Katz personal zoo and fed well and given lots of room to roam around. Dont’ worry about them.

  34. Snowman says:

    I’m dead to the losing. I don’t expect them to win and they rarely disappoint. The best thing to happen would be for them to have the worst season in franchise history. Everyone gets fired and we start again with Connor or Jack.

    I hope Nelson finds work elsewhere. Would rather see a legit proven nhl coach and gm with a history of winnin in town.

    Its broken and it isn’t getting fixed with the same people who fixed us here.

    Stop expecting a win. The games are much easier to swallow. I still cheer like hell for them but this way you don’t have to feel sick about it. Looking forward to the kings game.

  35. GCW_69 says:

    This past summer I posted a list of things that had to break right for the Oilers to be competitive. Mostly, because I didn’t think they would happen. Let’s review:

    1. Yakupov had to play well and win over his coach (nope)
    2. Scrivens and or Fasth had to prove he can be a competent starter for a full season. The back up can’t be horrible (oh boy did this not happen)
    3. Nikitin needs to find a time machine back to 2011(nope)
    4. Purcell needs to prove he should not have been a buy out candidate (not a buy out guy, but not a $4M guy either)
    5. Pouliot needs to handle the pressure of a $20m contract (See Clarkson, David) (finally one broke right)
    6. Petry needs to be there for the season or be traded for a better defender (give it time, he’ll be gone soon)
    7. They have to use RNH smarter than last year. No more PK time so he has the energy to play the top centres while giving up 20-40 pounds (nope)
    8. No key players can get injured because outside of the wing, depth is still poor. (nope)
    9. They need to grab a centre like Anisimov from Columbus so they don’t have to throw Leon in the deep end (nope)
    10. Eakins/Ramsey needs to use Schultz wisely (nope)
    11. Gazdic needs to spend more games in the press box than on the ice otherwise everyone’s theory of Gordon and Hendricks being the tough zone start line falls apart. (Seen too much of him already)
    12. Perron needs to stay healthy (serious regression instead)

  36. bcoil says:

    The problem is i the dressing room and I can’t for the life of me understand how firing Lowe or Mac T is going to change that . I think we kept Eakins around too long after his best before date and it is going to take 20 games for Nelson to change the culture in the room. Mac T is doing the right thing in figuring out who in the room has to go ;who are the quitters ;who are the sulkers who is the poison and the only way to do that is by being IN the room and on the bench listening and watching .You cant do that kind of hands on in the press box.

  37. Unicorns says:

    book¡je:
    MacT is trying to win. MacT is playing Hunt-Schultz because he believes they can provide a threat from the point.Hunt is there because MacT has one power play – shot from the point – it’s all he knew as coach and all he knows as GM.

    By eye and by stats Hunt-Schultz are terrible at defending which is the critical element of the position.MacT does not understand this.This makes him an absolutly incompetent GM.

    Agreed about the point shot. And that is the symptom of the flawed and old school, one dimensional thinking that is at the heart of the matter. The fact is that they right now do not have more than Petry who is active with a hard shot and who is a NHL calibre D.

    The solution is not to play Hunt, it is to maximize Petry and create a system to use at the moment that keys on what they do have – elite skill forwards many of who have a big shot, and a highly skilled puck mover with a muffin in Schultz.

    Point shots don’t ‘have’ to be a rocket, they are also effective if they can get through and are placed to create rebounds for others. The point is quick puck movement to pull defenders out of position and getting the goalie to move, create disorder. The Oilers seem good at disorder to me. I think the forwards will go to the net if the puck starts showing up in the crease a lot. The only thing they seem to love is scoring, that bait will draw them in.

  38. book¡je says:

    bcoil:
    The problem is i the dressing room and I can’t for the life of me understand how firing Lowe or Mac T is going to change that . I think we kept Eakins around too long after his best before date and it is going to take 20 games for Nelson to change the culture in the room. Mac T is doing the right thing in figuring out who in the room has to go ;who are the quitters ;who are the sulkers who isthe poison and the only way to do that is by being IN the room and on the bench listening and watching .You cant do that kind of hands on in the press box.

    So, all of these players who have a history of sucess prior to becoming Oilers have developed bad attitudes all of the sudden?

    I have no doubt that the core players on this team are sulking – a good portion of their career has been ruined by inept management.

    These players are smart hockey players, they see the inherently stupid coaching and management decisions and know that whatever they they do, the coach and GM will sink the team.

    For the record, I think we can now say that some of the really stupid decisions about defensive deployment have come from MacT.

  39. D says:

    I hear your frustration LT. Have a good Sunday.

  40. Lowetide says:

    Derek Roy on waivers. 26GP, 1-9-10.

  41. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    If the Oilers draft Eichel, he can invoke the Jultz loophole and go UFA in his last year, no? But this would require him to wait 2 years (I think), which would mean giving up a lot of salary.

  42. frjohnk says:

    Hardwork will always overcome talent when talent does not work hard enough

  43. Pouzar says:

    A little sidebar: So the World Jrs award 3pts for a regulation win. hmmmmmmmm….

  44. Ryan says:

    bcoil:
    The problem is i the dressing room and I can’t for the life of me understand how firing Lowe or Mac T is going to change that . I think we kept Eakins around too long after his best before date and it is going to take 20 games for Nelson to change the culture in the room. Mac T is doing the right thing in figuring out who in the room has to go ;who are the quitters ;who are the sulkers who isthe poison and the only way to do that is by being IN the room and on the bench listening and watching .You cant do that kind of hands on in the press box.

    Where is the quitters, sulkers, poison meme coming from?

    Did you read today’s post? Lowetide already told you who has to go and he didn’t need to look anyone in the eyeballs to figure it out.
    We have half a roster of NHL players and no goaltending to boot. That’s on the GM, so he’s top of the list of who needs to go.

  45. Ryan says:

    Lowetide:
    Derek Roy on waivers. 26GP, 1-9-10.

    I’ll bet you a case of your favorite beer that the Oilers don’t claim him.

  46. Bobbin Roundlee says:

    The fix is in.

    MacT can only be behind the bench now to see where the cancer is.

    Until you see it for yourself, who is and who isn’t responding, you can’t know which one of your “valuable” assets to trade away.

    Smart businessmen like Malcolm Forbes plan their businesses around a long, very long term plan. Even though Katz is a jock hugger I don’t think is stupid enough to let a chance at a generational talent go. Expect the Oilers to do NOTHING major to fix the team until the summer then I expect a WHOLESALE housecleaning.

    I can only laugh crazily like Chief Inspector Charles LaRousse Dreyfus, remember the nemesis of Inspector Clouseau from the Pink Panther anytime the Oilers make a Jultz move.

    My only hockey entertainment now is chuckling crazily at the ineptitude of all that is the Kevin Lowe hockey empire and I will not be denied.

  47. jake70 says:

    Anyone ever stop a round of golf early on because you started so badly, like quadruple bogey on first couple of holes ……..you might just walk to your car after 3 holes because you felt like the round was shot? You were allowed that. This team is on the 3rd hole with a cumulutive score of 16 — and they can’t leave and come back next day for a reset – they have to play the games out. How is this going to end? Where is the fast forward button.

  48. bcoil says:

    Ryan,

    I think you will find that LT will be the first to tell you he is only giving an opinion, as am I and are you but at no time will LT suggest he has enough “hands on ” knowledge to say his opinions are cast in stone accurate. A lot of these players have excellent track records in other organizations so what has gone wrong in this dressing room that has turned their confidence into jello.

  49. Unicorns says:

    The Oilers haven’t been great at the draft but that is not unusual, and many bloggers have shown a lot of it is luck outside of the first round especially. The draft contributes but has also provided a good top line and one top D. It also gave a goalie but MacT made him sacrificial. A lot of the skill players needed.

    All teams have to augment the draft to be good and this is what kills the Oilers. I believe there is a spark of merit in the claim players don’t want to come to Edmonton. I don’t think it’s the whole story. IF they had been able to improve when they do score a good one like Fayne or Boyd it would get somewhat easier. But they wreck that.

    Because they seem to think that they will only sign or acquire players that they have unfounded crushes on or top level players, they consistently refuse to acquire the boring but competent, helpful, and typically less expensive and available later in the summer players. These are the players that have put this team in the past and the current good ones over the top.

    You have dance to the music that is playing. You have to get the BPA in every decision whether he is the ideal of your mind’s eye or not. As LT said, decisions based on winning. Better a small soft team that rolls four lines of hockey players than a team that is small and soft and plays Gazdic, Pinizzotto and the like because grit.

    It is hard to separate what I think it is fair to call yearly tanking efforts (possibly beginning after they are surprised yet again that the summer’s wrong-headed efforts have failed, or more planned) from the misguided, one dimensional decision making.

    It is probably a revolving cycle of both spiced with the ego gratification of several decision makers. What it will eventually come down to is how much Katz or his closest advisor (maybe his kids) know about modern hockey and who they hire when tired of what this incarnation is.

    This summer will tell the tale. If nothing new happens, we’ll know beyond doubt that this will go on until there are major shake ups. Current rumblings of it mean nothing, we have heard them before. It could take five or more years for Katz to lose Hall and someone else whom is key and lose the trade, or they walk, and he fears his shiny new bobble won’t fill up. If oil stays low things could change with season tickets and sales. Business is easy when money is aplenty and average people think it will go on forever.

    Sorry that is depressing. After each season is lost I hope for another top draft pick to increase the arsenal which keeps me interested – win big or lose big, nowhere in between – and that next summer will be the one where they stop tanking and show us it was all planned and they start making the right decisions based on treating people decently and winning.

    I won’t give them any more years after 2015 to get it right. There will be no further reasons to choose to lose or not understand what type of player fits the team as it is to make it better, that are in any way justifiable on any level. I’ll probably still read here and watch games until there’s no point (15 minutes in!) and be unable to switch allegiances. Hopefully the Eskimos stay good.

  50. Ryan says:

    bcoil:
    Ryan,

    I think you will find that LT will be the first to tell you he isonly giving an opinion, as am I and are you but at no time will LT suggest he has enough “hands on ” knowledge to say his opinions are cast in stone accurate. A lot of these players have excellent track records in other organizations so what has gone wrong in this dressing room that has turned their confidence into jello.

    I will be the first to tell you that I am only agreeing with his opinion. 🙂

    Are the Oilers losing because:

    A) They have half a roster of actual NHL players and two goalies playing below replacement level.
    B) There are hockey players with bad attitudes who’re poison in the room that need to be identified eyeball to eyeball and rooted out for this team to win.

  51. dadoug12 says:

    Since mact has come in as GM, the only players left from then are the core members, doesnt that tell you what the problem is, This team will never win if they keep this core together,

  52. teddyturnbuckle says:

    The rebuild has all been an illusion. The Oilers never fixed their drafting problem that put them in the tank back in 2010 and since then we have been drafting top picks in marginal draft years. While we get one good player each year the other teams are getting 2-3 good players with their superior drafts.

  53. oliveoilers says:

    jake70:
    Anyone ever stop a round of golf early on because you started so badly, like quadruple bogey on first couple of holes ……..you might just walk to your carafter 3 holes because you felt like the round was shot?You were allowed that.This team is on the 3rd hole with a cumulutive score of 16 — and they can’t leave and come back next day fora reset– they have to play the games out. How is this going to end?Where is the fast forward button.

    I can honestly say that I would NEVER cut short a round of golf because I was sucking. Family emergencies and unexpected prairie thunderstorms yes. Sucking, no. You still try your best. A bad day on the course is better than a good day at the office. Maybe that’s the problem: We have some very good scratch golfers that play hockey in the bad weather season.

  54. Ryan says:

    dadoug12:
    Since mact has come in as GM, the only players left from then are the core members, doesnt that tell you what the problem is,This team will never win if they keep this core together,

    Which core in the NHL could win with this goaltending let alone blue line?

  55. elgruntus says:

    In the immortal words of Bob Dylan…..

    “Broken lines broken strings
    Broken threads broken springs
    Broken idols broken heads
    People sleeping in broken beds
    Ain’t no use jiving
    Ain’t no use joking
    Everything is broken.”

    One more song lyric to stew on..

    “Disappointment breeds contempt” (Posies, Golden Blunders)

    ahhh, music. Soothes the soul.

  56. russ99 says:

    The most frustrating part is not the lost season, but refusal to put Nelson and the players in a position to succeed.

    At some point MacT needs to drop the whole “We’re going to play this way, it’s going to work” and “Change anything the players win” mentalities to be able to not only better evaluate who to keep and who to dump but also to increase the trade value of those players we move.

    Btw: The biggest tell (other than what we see on the ice) thst nothing’s changed at all since Eakins is coach’s mouthpiece Ference going off on playing within the systems before the break.

  57. godot10 says:

    dadoug12:
    Since mact has come in as GM, the only players left from then are the core members, doesnt that tell you what the problem is,This team will never win if they keep this core together,

    Except that core got the team to 24th place with a goal differential of -9 with 45 points in 48 Western Conference games, whereas MacT’s guys are over half a goal against worse, trending for -70ish GD in 82 games and under 70 and likely under 60 point seasons.

    MacT broke and destroyed a rebuild that was finally gaining a little traction, by bringing in his jackbooting big-hat-talking coach, and a big-talking leading from the rear captain.

  58. teddyturnbuckle says:

    Oilers need to trade Schultz in the off season for a veteran D-man. He will never be what the Oilers need and right now he is a major problem. Same goes for Yak. These should be easy trades to make and it will help make room for McDavid and get rid of some youth.

  59. PunjabiOil says:

    If there is a year to tank, it’s this one. Finish 30th and secure one of McDavid or Eichel. Just need some separation from Carolina – the other teams are pulling themselves away. Buffalo, I also sense, is still a team that might collapse.
    _______________
    There are rumours floating that Eichel may leave college and go junior hockey.

    Probably a silly conspiracy theory on my part, but could it be possible Eichel senses the Oilers will finish 30th (thus, 80% chance he’ll be an Oiler), and by going to junior, he can refuse to sign with the Oilers and thus be re-drafted in 2 years?

    It doesn’t make sense – why would he entertain the the thought of leaving college?

    I think MacDavid would play for Edmonton, but interesting bit:

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/juniors/connor-mcdavid-on-the-nhl-draft-and-99-points/

    If an NHL team tanks to try to get you, would that impress you?

    If a team is tanking to get me then no, I do not want to play on that team. If you’re tanking to get a higher draft pick, you really shouldn’t be playing hockey. But I don’t think anyone is tanking to draft me.

  60. neojanus says:

    Schultz will get you a fifth round pick at this point in his career because his problems at this level are exposed every game. Look at what Cam Barker is doing these days.

    The Oilers will not get McDavid. There is an 80% chance another team gets him. It will be Eichel. They should start pencilling their moves around that player.

    They also need to topple the whole building because the foundation is completely rotten. They are the most embarrassing sports franchise in all of sports.

  61. Dee Dee says:

    bcoil:
    The problem is i the dressing room and I can’t for the life of me understand how firing Lowe or Mac T is going to change that . I think we kept Eakins around too long after his best before date and it is going to take 20 games for Nelson to change the culture in the room. Mac T is doing the right thing in figuring out who in the room has to go ;who are the quitters ;who are the sulkers who isthe poison and the only way to do that is by being IN the room and on the bench listening and watching .You cant do that kind of hands on in the press box.

    Lowe is the Captain of the good ship Oilers. The Supreme leader.

    He should be performing a number of functions.

    1. Building and implementing “the plan”.
    2. Hiring the best staff he can to implement “the plan”.
    3. Evaluating and monitoring the teams performance to keep the “plan” moving forward.
    4. Provide a sober second thought to managements decisions and know when to override them.

    So here’s the thing.

    There is no plan.

    You know it, I know it, the players certainly know it. unfortunately the one person who needs to know it is the Owner. (Or he knows it and doesn’t care, worse in my books).

    In terms of point 2, I think it’s been proven that the best staff hasn’t been hired, but look how Lowe progressed through the organization, it sure worked well for him.

    Point 3 is the killer. The team is moving backwards. 10 NHL players 6 years into the “rebuild” and the shear number of Not ready for prime time players is inexcusable.

    When the person at the top of the pyramid is the golden one, and you’ve replaced EVERYONE, multiple times, do you think, that maybe, just maybe, that the problem is the one single thing that you haven’t changed?

    I’ve changed my mind though. And it’s not about the upcoming draft either.

    Let Mr Katz and Mr Lowe own the all time record for missing the playoffs. They can tie it next year, errrr, they WILL own it next year. And let their names be forever immortalized next to it.

    Cause if he stays the shit show of players demanding to be traded will be monumental, and that folks, is when it gets really bad.

  62. Zack says:

    Lowetide,

    I think later I’m going to photoshop a picture of McDavid holding up an Eric Lindros sign I’d you’d like to use it.

  63. jake70 says:

    oliveoilers: I can honestly say that I would NEVER cut short a round of golf because I was sucking. Family emergencies and unexpected prairie thunderstorms yes. Sucking, no. You still try your best. A bad day on the course is better than a good day at the office. Maybe that’s the problem: We have some very good scratch golfers that play hockey in the bad weather season.

    Yeah I was just refrring to that feeling like you are having a nightmare round and you want to walk off the course ( I have never ever done this though, only observed ..cough ..cough) Another example came to mind – Genie Bouchard at the Rogers’s cup in Montreal, getting whipped 6-0 after first set in her backyard, coach comes down and the mic catches her saying ” I want to walk off the court”. They are pros, they have to keep going but it must be very difficult. Maybe they can relegate them to AHL for a stint? 🙂

  64. Captain's Log says:

    Roy and Fraser on waivers. I’d be okay picking up either but Roy in particular would let us send Draisaitl to juniors. He’s not having a great year but it’s better than Leon’s

  65. Ryan says:

    Captain’s Log:
    Roy and Fraser on waivers. I’d be okay picking up either but Roy in particular would let us send Draisaitl to juniors. He’s not having a great year but it’s better than Leon’s

    It’s a free out to send Leon back to junior which is why Mact won’t take it.

  66. Rod from Viking says:

    godot10:
    I doubt McDavid or Eichel will consent to come without a housecleaning, Lowe, MacT, and Howson gone, and a Babcock-type is signed.

    They will force a trade by not signing a contract.If not, they will just endure the two years in Europe (McDavid) or one more year in college and one in Europe (Eichel).

    This is unfortunately very much what would happen.

  67. oliveoilers says:

    jake70: Yeah I was just refrring to that feeling like you are having a nightmare round and you want to walk off the course ( I have never ever done this though, only observed ..cough ..cough)Another example came to mind – Genie Bouchard at the Rogers’s cup in Montreal, getting whipped 6-0 after first set in her backyard, coach comes down and the mic catches her saying ” I want to walk off the court”.They are pros, they have to keep going but it must be very difficult. Maybe they can relegate them to AHL for a stint?

    Oh yeah, I’ve felt like giving up. But then the drink cart pulls up. Might as well play another hole….On that note, there’s a course in Medicine Hat that employs, shall we say, well endowed young ladies and they do not grade the cart tracks. They can be very bouncy. The tracks that is. Ahem. Still, they could be guaranteed that the whole of CFB Suffield would use that course, and drunk people/idiots tip generously!

  68. oliveoilers says:

    Captain’s Log:
    Roy and Fraser on waivers. I’d be okay picking up either but Roy in particular would let us send Draisaitl to juniors. He’s not having a great year but it’s better than Leon’s

    We won’t do it. You know why. #Because…….

  69. dadoug12 says:

    Ryan: Which core in the NHL could win with this goaltending let alone blue line?

    if that is the case then the person responsible for supplying the goaltending and blueline should be fired.

  70. dadoug12 says:

    teddyturnbuckle:
    Oilers need to trade Schultz in the off season for a veteran D-man. He will never be what the Oilers need and right now he is a major problem.Same goes for Yak.These should be easy trades to make and it will help make room for McDavid and get rid of some youth.

    Both will get you a dime on the dollar, as there play this season has totally devalued themselves.

  71. KSC10032 says:

    Lowetide: Derek Roy on waivers. 26GP, 1-9-10.

    And he costs a buck ninety-five.

    Even more than was the case with Chipchura, the Oilers passing on a waiver claim on Roy would indicate the continuation of this season’s tank job; especially in light of the recent discussion @ sending the big German to Kelowna.

  72. Hammers says:

    Lowetide:
    Derek Roy on waivers. 26GP, 1-9-10.

    I hope your not suggesting picking him up .. I would sooner Lander and then you either have a 4th line “C” or don’t resign . Were going nowhere anyway LT.

  73. KSC10032 says:

    Hammers: I hope your not suggesting picking him up .. I would sooner Lander and then you either have a 4th line “C” or don’t resign . Were going nowhere anyway LT.

    Frankly, I’d do both, rotating Arcobello, Roy and Lander, as, basically, place-holders between now and the deadline, when, perhaps a guy like Gordon might be moved.

    While Gordon may well be the best 4th line centre in the league, he is an expensive one, and we can still finish 30th without him. Even though I like BG, the deadline is the only time you can move a disproportionate contract like his.

  74. PunkInDrublic says:

    The only solution I see now comes down to three things:

    1. Purge management. Give Nicholson free reign to gut this pig. I have no idea who the replacements could be, but at this point there is no other option than to hari kari this thing and hope it is enough of a public statement to make people believe there is still hope for this organization.

    2. Draft McEichel. Get a generational talent in here and be willing to trade off anyone not named Nuge, Nurse, Draisaitl. Pray desperately that the effect of having the next Crosby draws some UFA attention, especially in respect to point 3.

    3. Get Babcock at all costs. This team needs some established, well-respected talent to cling to and he’s a perfect fit. Coaching cannot be questioned with him.

    These are the only real moves that will get me watching again. I have tickets for two games in 2015 (which i bought at the start of the season when i was optimistic) and I’m not inclined to go. I was planning on taking my best friend to one and my father tot the other, but dinner out and a few beers is a far better option at the moment. I haven’t pvr’d a game in over a month. I haven’t watched a game in almost two months. I’m a die hard oiler fan but my loyalty is fading fast.

  75. Taro Tsujimoto says:

    PunkInDrublic:
    3.Get Babcock at all costs. This team needs some established, well-respected talent to cling to and he’s a perfect fit.Coaching cannot be questioned with him.

    Mike Babcock will not sign with the Oilers. He will re-sign with the Wings. They remain THE model org. and he damn well knows it. I fully expect them to win another Cup before Datsyuk goes back to Russia.

    I mean, have you seen that Nyquist goal? 28 SECONDS!!! And he isn’t even their best player!

  76. And your name is? says:

    book¡je:
    For the record, I think we can now say that some of the really stupid decisions about defensive deployment have come from MacT.

    Did he write “and that’s my final answer” on the bottom of the game sheet, or was he trying something because nothing else had worked, either?

    The first thing in life I realized that I deeply loathed and detested was the situation comedy where the characters seem to be wired up to aggressively misconstrue the smallest scrap of information that could possibly suggest or confirm anything they might be harbouring a minor tizzy about. A close second were the British soaps in which everyone in the neighborhood is keenly wired to detect the least amount of deviance from knowing your place and grinding out your days in full conformity. Combine the two, one could put together a nice little situation soap titled Presumptuous Stress Kittens in Pyongyang.

    I’m for liberty. Liberty means granting that other people have their own minds, accepting that those minds are complex, and that even for the most competent people, plenty of life is spent bumbling around looking for a fresh clue or shaking out the sofa cushions for the clue that got away.

    The history of discovery is not exactly littered with orthodox methods.

    Forensic
    of, relating to, or denoting the application of scientific methods and techniques to the investigation of crime

    What do scientists do? They experiment.

    Experiment
    a test, trial, or tentative procedure; an act or operation for the purpose of discovering something unknown or of testing a principle, supposition, etc.

    After the Hunt / Jultz experiment I imagine MacT when home and put a sarcastic tick mark beside “Wow. Just wow. Who knew?” and then poured himself a stiff shot of colourful capsules from a wide-mouthed forty-ouncer.

    Am I wrong, or is it the same people around here who revile MacT for hiring Eakins without a formal interview process are the same people who would have cleaned house from top to bottom without first deploying Bob Nicholson?

    Turns out gut instincts sure are darn hard to ignore when they’re your own children. And the similarity doesn’t stop there. In both cases, the prompt actor is muttered to himself “maybe it’s a bit risky, but by Gord something must be done!”

    ———

    What I’ve found in life is that urgency generally isn’t a robust decider. Urgency has it’s uses when you get stuck in a stale mate.

    A common case is the fairy bright student who enrolls in medical school, only to discover that that path forward for the “fairly” bright is arduous indeed. Furthermore, they make the painful discovery that doctors don’t spend their entire days standing around being doctors, they spend their entire days busting their hump caring for patients (the medical profession’s small dipper) and filling out paperwork (the medical profession’s big dipper).

    Then the day comes when the young person “urgently” feels the need to go on a pub crawl two nights before their biochemistry final exam, and by next spring they are comfortable relocated to a more achievable degree track.

    Urgency hails from the department of shit or get off the pot: if not success here, soon another attempt there (where here = medical school, there = interior design). MacT road into town on a Peterbilt and I suspect he’ll be leaving town on a second-rate imitation of the Partridge Family bus.

    ———

    I was reading about procrastination last night.

    Getting Over Procrastination

    When Steel completed his analysis, one finding in particular jumped out: excessive procrastinators were worse at self-regulating. In fact, self-regulation—the ability to exercise self-control and delay immediate rewards for future benefits—explained seventy per cent of the observed procrastination behaviors. From that connection came Steel’s main insight: What if procrastination was simply the flip side of impulsivity? Just as impulsivity is a failure of our self-control mechanisms—we should wait, but instead we act now—so, too, is procrastination: we should act now, but instead we wait.

    The researchers found that each trait was moderately heritable: about forty-six per cent of the tendency to procrastinate, and forty-nine per cent of the tendency toward impulsiveness, was attributable to genes. But the estimated genetic correlation between the two traits was one—that is, perfect—or at least as close to perfect as you can get. What’s more, Friedman’s team found that both traits could, in turn, be linked to goal-management ability: the same shared genetic variation overlapped substantially (at sixty-eight per cent) with a tendency toward goal failure. “Maybe what’s actually linking these traits is that people are failing to keep track of their long-term goals,” Friedman said.

    When it comes to self-control, one trick that tends to work well is to reframe broad, ambitious goals in concrete, manageable, immediate chunks, and the same goes for procrastination. [emph. mine]

    When the goal starts out as building a winning organization built for the long haul, and then it contracts to not embarrassing itself on opening night in the new arena, and from there to ever making the playoffs ever again, and from there to arguing over how many people we can fire how quickly, is this helping or hurting the cause?

    Plan A

    1. Fire everyone
    2. Hire replacements though exhaustive search, with three times more process and paperwork than ever before
    3. Sit back and relax
    4. Plan parade

    Does this reflect the upside of manageable chunks, or is it just another round of impulsivity disguised in drag?

    Plan B

    1. Conduct exhaustive forensic audit
    2. Evaluate every available resource in all permutations and combinations
    3. Correctly diagnose cause/cause(s) of present predicament
    4. Re-asses strengths, weaknesses, limitations, and capabilities
    5. Set realistic goals
    6. Eliminate personnel who are unable to achieve those goals
    7. Procure the best possible replacements
    8. Sweat bullets over the integration of the old with the new
    9. Try to win a few hockey games in the month of October
    10. Sweat bullets over lingering problems
    11. Try to win a few hockey games in the month of November
    12. Sweat bullets over lingering problems

    ———

    I think there’s a second side to procrastination, which boils down to the pursuit of neurotic rewards. Neurotic rewards are powerful rewards, but with a shallow root system, so that even after achieving the reward, you still resent the dog work you had to do in order to get there.

    A five star chef with a deep root system cares about serving food on properly washed plates, and would certainly do so himself if the need arose to roll up his or her sleeves.

    A doctor with a shallow root system loves everything about medicine except for actually treating h/h patients. Many doctors joke that medicine is a great profession, except for all the illness.

    Yak wasn’t too thrilled when he got here about finally being asked to do his own dog work. “He wants me to hit and block shots!” is how I recall his anguished remark.

    ———

    Footnote

    I propose that my spontaneous notation “h/h” is read “his” by women and “her” by men. This goes along with my proposed system that girls take their father’s surname and boys take their mother’s surname. Once this is implemented for two generations, your mother’s brothers and your father’s sisters end up with the surnames of your other two grandparents. Now that we’re in the Facebook era, this would hardly confuse young people.

    There is much to commend this scheme. It would, for example, also lend a welcome note of comedy to a blended family heading by family-minded patriarch who rejuvenates his marital situation every ten years or so with a two-handed Grecian-formula swish of the crowfoot crow bar.

  77. Buddy says:

    I was at the game last night — first time I’ve seen the Hall-Nuge Oilers live, as I live in Calgary. It was probably worse live than it looked on TV — the Flames’ fans were laughing at all the gaffes the Oilers made, and not laughing in a forced way, but genuinely, because they found them truly, pathetically funny.

    But on a positive note (!), I was really struck by one thing in particular in seeing the game live, namely by how hard Yakupov was playing. Until last night I was firmly in the camp of those who didn’t see any hope of him turning into a player. And if I’d seen the game on TV I probably would have maintained that view (e.g. by seeing a close-up of the play where he has the puck in the high slot and doesn’t shoot). But man was he trying to make things happen. So I genuinely hope he goes somewhere where he can have a career.

    As for Hall, on the other hand — I spent most of the game wondering why the Oilers hadn’t dressed him. But then he played a couple shifts in the 3rd, so I guess he must have been in the dressing room in the first two periods.

    Going forward, I think the only thing we can focus on is to see whether Nelson can bring some structure to the Oilers’ defensive zone play. My son plays Bantam, I’ve watched hundreds of games of minor hockey over the last few years, and the Oilers clearly have a lot of players who haven’t had much coaching along the way and just don’t have a clue in their own end. As for anything depending on management (new players), it ain’t happening, so there’s no point in worrying about it as a fan.

  78. Lowetide says:

    Hammers: I hope your not suggesting picking him up .. I would sooner Lander and then you eitherhave a 4th line “C”or don’t resign . Were going nowhere anyway LT.

    That’s the question for sure. Roy might be able to help Yakupov in the second half, giving him a veteran presence with some skill. That has value imo.

  79. hoser313 says:

    You nailed it LT. Too many players in the line-up that need sheltering.

    The new veterans simply replaced the old veterans.

  80. jzed says:

    The Oil are defensively inferior to any decent Bantam squad. I recall Buffalo’s coach ripping them for being a peewee team, they’ve gone on to win some games. Perhaps Nelson needs to stop being diplomatic and call out his squad for being what they are, house leaguers being paid a pro salary. Get real personal.

  81. Pouzar says:

    Lowetide: That’s the question for sure. Roy might be able to help Yakupov in the second half, giving him a veteran presence with some skill. That has value imo.

    There is room for both. Roy can definitely play the soft minutes role with a Yakupov and create chances(2.1 P/60). Send Drai down and get Lander up in a left wing/Center utility role. Lander can flat out play and looked like a different cat in that one game audition SSS aside.

    Roy was pushed out in NSH due to a numbers game. Mike Fischer returned and the play of rookie Taylor Beck left no room for a vet on a 1 year deal. Not saying Roy is the answer but we have to ask the question.

    Roys 2.1 P/60 would be #1 among Oiler Centers right now and over twice as high as that kid who should be playing in the World Jrs for Germany.

  82. jzed says:

    Roy was one of the rare, harder to sign than Lindros to an ELC, UFA. Would have had to overpay. Claim him for reasonable $’s ( negotiated somewhere else) and get the German kid out of this dysfunctional mess, no brainer right?

    No brain, right.

  83. Pouzar says:

    jzed:
    Roy was one of the rare, harder to sign than Lindros to an ELC, UFA.Would have had to overpay. Claim him for reasonable $’s ( negotiated somewhere else) and get the German kid out of this dysfunctional mess, no brainer right?

    No brain, right.

    Will.Not.Happen.

  84. flyfish1168 says:

    Looks like they are having fun.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WglARtRZ9sA

  85. blainer says:

    One step closer to McEichel… McDavid will come here. I’m not worried about it. I think we are gonna end up with Eichel. He may end up being the better of the two any way. Much easier to accept when I’m not watching the games. Very surprised the tickets are selling .. new rink or not.

  86. sliderule says:

    Unicorns,

    This blog is all about numbers so I don’t know haw you can say after first round the draft is luck.

    The numbers don’t lie.The oilerssecond round and later picks under Stu have played 240 games.The top drafting like Hawks Kings and Islanders have between 750 and a 1000 each.

    That’s not luck that’s good amateur scouts and management

  87. blainer says:

    On the upside the Barons are really playing well. That is a big relief as it does show some hope especially the way Brossoit is playing. Hopefully he wins a calder cup and be ready sometime next year… there is a silver lining on the farm and with Nurse in the pipeline plus the addition of Eichel or McDavid. I would say though I would like Nurse on the farm for a year first.

  88. spoiler says:

    sliderule:
    Unicorns,

    This blog is all about numbers so I don’t know haw you can say after first round the draft is luck.

    The numbers don’t lie.The oilerssecond round and laterpicks under Stu have played 240 games.The top drafting like Hawks Kings and Islanders have between 750 and a 1000 each.

    That’s not luck that’s good amateur scouts and management

    No where in this post do you refute luck. Using cute catchphrases like “the numbers don’t lie” is not making an actual argument one way or another.

    If you’re gonna tell the guy he’s wrong at least give him the respect of showing him why.

  89. sliderule says:

    spoiler,

    I have posted several times giving the numbers.

    At least before calling me out check it out for yourself

  90. spoiler says:

    And your name is?,

    I was going to reply to this but decided it was better to put it off till later.

  91. spoiler says:

    sliderule:
    spoiler,

    I have posted several times giving the numbers.

    At least before calling me out check it out for yourself

    I have and haven’t seen a single thing your numbers that refutes luck. It’s just more of the same as your reply to Unicorns.

    And by calling you out I was specifically calling out your response to Uni which–as you seem to admit–had nothing in the way of argument against his point.

  92. G Money says:

    spoiler: I have and haven’t seen a single thing your numbers that refutes luck. It’s just more of your reply to Unicorns.

    The discussion might be a bit more productive if you used the term ‘random variation’ rather than ‘luck’.

    There is, without a doubt, a difference in ‘true talent’ level between scouting teams.

    The problem is, the random variation of the draft process is so enormous that even a variance of 500 games between two teams of scouts over 5 years is not enough to definitively declare one a winner.

    Given the success rates, especially in the later stages of the draft, hitting on a single good player in two drafts can make one team look like a star and another that gets zero look like a dog, when in fact, both are well within the expectation given the random variation, without there having to be any actual difference in talent level.

    It’s like one team rolling a 5 and a 6 and the other rolling a 1 and a 2, and declaring the first one to be clearly more skilled at dice.

    (Yes, I have done some work to try and suss this out using my draft success curves I published over at C&B, and then some follow up work with Monte Carlo simulations).

    I think we are at the point where assessment of the Oiler draft strategy and sub-par results allows us to be very concerned that this group is mediocre at best, really poor at worst. Given the rot in this organization, and the critical importance of scouting to long term success, I would change them all and go with replacements with the best track record I could find.

    That’s the smart bet.

    But it’s still just a bet – there’s still an awful lot of dice rolling involved to be able to say for sure.

  93. flyfish1168 says:

    We folded up like a cheap tent after the phlegms got physical yesterday. It change the game when they started hitting us. No push back in the physical department. We need alot more nastiness that can also play the game. Both Fraser and Roy has some

    Derek has a nasty side to him that I like. We pick him up and waive Arco. We don’t need 2 small players let alone someone that doesn’t have a bit of truculence.

    I would also pick up Fraser and then release Gazdic. Fraser at least can fight and has better hockey skills. We need physical players that are willing to go to the hard areas to compete for space and willing to mix it up or stand up. Basically A$$ holes on skates.

  94. G Money says:

    Remember LT’s ‘cat on a high rise’ balance picture a few weeks back?

    This morning, that picture came up in my Facebook feed from “Amazing World”. There were four more cat pictures posted in that same grouping, and they seemed to me a perfect analogue of the Oiler management.

    To wit, let us call them “Catz and Co.:”

    Lowe: http://i.imgur.com/W6zd8aX.png – things look pretty good, don’t they?

    Katz: http://i.imgur.com/fa2Q2Sd.png – comfortable no matter what

    MacT: http://i.imgur.com/Aiq1xGI.jpg – demonstrating Jultzing

    Nelson: http://i.imgur.com/K7a7DbL.png – holy shit, what have I got myself into?

  95. Lowetide says:

    I think we can say with authority:

    The 2007 draft really hampered this team. Three first round picks and did not get a handsome return.
    The 2008 draft was excellent value. Jordan Eberle delivered on his number and maybe if the club hadn’t signed Penner to the offer sheet they could have added more value. Either way, you can’t blame the scouts.

    2009-a poor draft. We can blame overall quality, Lander’s weird employment by the team, but it hasn’t been close to good enough.

    2010-far less than hoped, but with Hall, Marincin and a couple more still pushing it should at least give them team some useful players.

    2011-Nuge and Klefbom should be important parts of the team for years, and the scouts identified Rieder and he’s trending very well. They also grabbed Simpson, Gernat and others. You’re going to have a hard time talking me into this being a bad draft year for Edmontn.

    2012-It is looking like a poor draft but I’m not sure how much blame to lay. Oilers got it right with Yakupov (you can argue hindsight but that’s unfair) and I suspect the organization wanted Moroz (but you have to give some blame to scouts for that decision, too). Khaira and Laleggia are reasonable bets but won’t save the draft year.

    2013-Nurse looks like he’s going to be an NHL player, how good is the question. Yakimov looked good in camp but hasn’t been able to get going in OKC. Roy is a disappointment but that was heralded as a fancy stats pick, so can we blame the scouts without pointing to the numbers run? Slepyshev may or may not be any good it’s tough to tell from here. Platzer and Chase look like solid, solid picks from here. I think this draft could be another 2011 (we’ll see).

    2014 brought Leon, Lagesson and the goalie for Michigan who didn’t get the start today, plus three wild is the wind picks.

    I’ll say 2008 is in the good books, and that 2011 and 2013 are heading that way. 2010 is not what I thought it would be, but isn’t a disaster either.

    That leaves 2007, 2009, 2012 and 2014 as the down arrow drafts (although only 2007 and 2009 are confirmed).

    Is it enough for the scouts to keep their jobs? The point is moot. They’ve been identified. Stack ’em and rack ’em, they’re toast.

  96. G Money says:

    We knew the tank was on when the Oilers refused to pick up Chipchura, a big and versatile centre perfectly capable of playing third or fourth line. No surprise, after he went through waivers, he played against the Oilers and was better than most of the Oiler C. Because no team gets its mistakes rubbed in its face as quickly or as pointedly as the Oilers do.

    Passing on Roy is not a sign that the tank is on. Signing Roy would allow the Oilers to do what’s right for two of their young players: send Draisaitl back to Jr, and give Yakupov some skilled veteran support at C for the first time in his career.

    Passing on Roy confirms what we already have indisputable evidence of: that the Oiler management team have no clue of what to do, or do next.

    A decade of failure in running an NHL team has so overwhelmed them that they are frozen in fear and doubt.

    They’re probably calling Steve Tambellini as we speak – we know him as “Mr. Dithers” but they know him as “Mr. Action” – asking what they should do next.

  97. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Pouzar:
    A little sidebar: So the World Jrs award 3pts for a regulation win. hmmmmmmmm….

    All IIHF tournaments & European leagues do this. A sane way to balance risk & reward. An OT/SO loss is still worth more than a regulation loss, but an OT/SO win is worth commensurately *less*. Thus both teams are going after the same three points from the beginning of the game, & the game determines how those points are split. “loser points” are taken from the winner, not created out of the ether, and there is proper incentive for teams to win in regulation. We already see in theWorld Junior how both Russia & USA dropped a point despite winning their games because they failed to do so in regulation, while Denmark & Finland gained a point despite losing those same games. That is a proper splitting of points in the true spirit of the old-fashioned tie game, even as it guarantees there will be a winner in each game. It ensures integrity of competiton for the full 60 minutes of each game.

    Not that Gary Bettman & Co give a shit about integrity, or of math that adds up.

  98. Unicorns says:

    sliderule:
    Unicorns,

    This blog is all about numbers so I don’t know haw you can say after first round the draft is luck.

    The numbers don’t lie.The oilerssecond round and laterpicks under Stu have played 240 games.The top drafting like Hawks Kings and Islanders have between 750 and a 1000 each.

    That’s not luck that’s good amateur scouts and management

    I used the term luck and G Money shined it up better. I know this is a blog with many interested in numbers which is why I lazily mentioned that there have been A LOT of blogs on this subject and there have been multiple discussions in these comment threads because all we have to discuss for much of the season is the draft. I assumed most would know what I meant without links.

    Anyway, the odds of success fall so quickly after the top 3 picks or some say top 5

    http://oilersnation.com/2011/3/10/the-value-of-an-nhl-draft-pick
    http://i.tsn.ca/draftcentre/story/?id=455673

    that as G Money says teams that look genius may have no more insight than teams that seem inept. Cullen says with at pick 30 these are the odds – “At least 100 NHL games (or extremely likely): 35.0%”. 100 games is a little over a season, while being called success that isn’t a stellar player often.

    There is a lot of variation and so many outside forces for young guys to overcome unless elite – coaches, depth of teams, sideburns, partying, immaturity, injury, discouragement.

    Over the years the Oilers have made poor decisions in selecting players that basically have no chance of beating the odds because of clear deficiencies, especially the proverbial coke machines. They picked a goalie that wasn’t elite in the first round and even then it would be a weak choice most times.

    I think that has been correcting in recent years under MacT. They have chosen the consensus BPA with each 1OV. Drafting isn’t the core issue to me.

    It’s terrible pro player procurement that has torpedoed average to low average drafting. The drafting is now average I would say. That is good.

    Elite drafting is as much a run of good fortune as anything as Detroit has shown. I’ll be lazy again and let you look for the blogs that have shown that Lidstrom Datsyuk and Zetterberg which they have lived on was basically the same luck as Messier, Anderson, Coffey, Kurri which that genius never came close to again.

    Detroit has some decent players they developed expertly but nobody in the same class. They aren’t going to win the Cup again IMO for a long while now that they can’t pick and choose UFA’s anymore and the three are now 2 and the 2 pretty old.

    Torpedoes still being fired by Oiler management at the good draft picks they have made. Even knowing who to like on their team and how to treat them is seemingly beyond them. I really hope they’ve learned and these last two years were a ruse.

  99. flyfish1168 says:

    Hi LT, hope your having a good holiday season. Guess it would be better if we win a few games. I was wondering if you plan on writing about developing these young players. I believe this is where our team is lacking. yes the NHL is not be a developmental league but if your not a PO team it becomes that. Learning to win with players that can help shelter your stars. I believe this is where we failed Hall, Eberle RNH, Yak and the player I hate Schultz. Love to see you dedicate a whole article on development. thx

  100. sliderule says:

    Lowetide,

    I don’t really know how they decided their selections but I would assume that Stu had the final say.

    I have seen how philly had a vote which doesn’t make much sense to me unless every scout has had same number of viewings.

    Assuming that each scout has one or more players who they think are worthy of a pick then Stu would have to decide from his knowledge of player and respect of scouts opinion if he would be selected.

    When my son played in the ajhl I watched every player and had no clue who would make NHL or even minor pro..My sons coach however told me Brent Sutter and Troy Murray would.He had insight. Hockey knowledge and more viewings than I did.

    Many years ago I remember Jack Adams talking about a team that had a very poor drafting record and his comment was they drafted from hockey news.The point being that knowledge and viewings are primary in projecting whether a player can make NHL.

    Luck plays a part in every point of life.I used to say to my friends that Puck had the touch of gold for his first ten years with the oilers that subsequently turned to the touch of crap.That is were luck comes in..
    Does your drafted player suffer a severe injury or illness that is luck..

    The analysis and selection of the player is a very little luck and a lot more knowledge and hard work.

  101. Lowetide says:

    flyfish1168:
    Hi LT, hope your having a good holiday season. Guess it would be better if we win a few games. I was wondering if you plan on writing about developing these young players. I believe this is where our team is lacking. yes the NHL is not be a developmental league but if your not a PO team it becomes that. Learning to win with players that can help shelter your stars. I believe this is where we failed Hall, Eberle RNH, Yak and the player I hate Schultz. Love to seeyou dedicate a whole article on development. thx

    It’s something I’ve looked at but without TOI totals (actual totals) it’s difficult to know how many at-bats these men are getting.

  102. Lowetide says:

    sliderule:
    Lowetide,

    I don’t really know how they decided their selections but I would assume that Stu had the final say.

    I have seen how philly had a vote which doesn’t make much sense to me unless every scout has had same number of viewings.

    Assuming that each scout has one or more players who they think are worthy of a pick then Stu would have to decide from his knowledge of player and respect of scouts opinion if he would be selected.

    When my son played in the ajhl I watched every player and had no clue who would make NHL or even minor pro..My sons coach however told me Brent Sutter and Troy Murray would.He had insight. Hockey knowledgeand more viewings than I did.

    Many years ago I remember Jack Adams talking about a team that had a very poor drafting recordand his comment was they drafted from hockey news.The point being that knowledge and viewings are primary in projecting whether a player can make NHL.

    Luck plays a part in every point of life.I used to say to my friends that Puck had the touch of gold for his first ten years with the oilers that subsequently turned to the touchof crap.That is were luck comes in..
    Does your drafted player suffer a severe injury or illnessthat is luck..

    The analysis and selection of the player is a very little luck and a lot more knowledge and hard work.

    I honestly don’t think the scouts make the picks in every situation. From what I have been able to find out anecdotally it’s fairly wide in range. One scout told me they had wrapped up their entire list and he went to bed that night convinced about a player. They had him in their top 50 and first thing next morning he went to the scouting director/GM and they moved him inside their top 20. The club got him in the second round and he’s a solid NHL player today.

    That’s an example of one scout making a difference. I’m sure there are others (a scout convincing scouting director/GM and player not working out) and am fairly certain a GM/owner/recently hired executive just makes the call sometimes (I’d point to Yakupov)

  103. Hodor says:

    The dealing of young guys is such a gong show. Some team always gets fleeced. With the brass we have it will be us. The death spiral for this season is going to be one that tests the metal of each fan. I think we know what the goal tending tandem can deliver I want to give are young tenders a chance only if we can sneak them through if we lost one of the Scrivens/Fasth I would not worry about it. The lack of action on the waiver wire drives me nuts cause what we have is not working

  104. spoiler says:

    G Money,

    I don’t think “random variation” is all that more accurate than the catch-all use of “luck”.

    Really what we are talking about is unforeseeable variation… same as the luck referred to in game play.

    The outcome might be quite deterministic, and not random at all, but not in a way that is knowable ahead of time. Unforeseeable variance.

    Doesn’t mean you can’t play the probabilities either… like Gretzky flipping a puck onto a goalie’s backside, or drafting centers over wingers.

  105. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: I honestly don’t think the scouts make the picks in every situation.

    Me neither. Which makes it even tougher to attribute success and failure from the outside looking on.

  106. G Money says:

    spoiler,

    I think they are separate things.

    There are a huge number of factors that go into the drafting process. We don’t know all of them. We don’t even know how they affect the process in many cases.

    In my view, the high level view of the random and uncontrollable part of that process is much better called random variation rather than luck.

    Because as soon as you call it ‘luck’, it carries with it a built-in excuse (for bad) or a pejorative element (“you got lucky” for good), neither of which apply.

    If you ask 20 people to roll a die, excellent chance (at least one) someone’s going to end up with a one, and (at least one) someone’s going to have a six. You don’t call the one(s) with the six ‘lucky’ and the one(s) with the one ‘unlucky’ – that’s the naive view.

    The non-naive view expects a distribution. So you call it random variation instead of luck.

    Or not, your call.

  107. CrazyCoach says:

    Johnny Rotten said it best when he sang,

    “Nooooooo fuuuture
    Noooooooo fuuuuture
    Noooooooo fuuuuture for you!!!!!!!!!”

    I actually spent money to go watch the Kings game. My wife remarked at least we get to see one good team

  108. spoiler says:

    G Money:
    spoiler,

    I think they are separate things.

    There are a huge number of factors that go into the drafting process.We don’t know all of them.We don’t even know how they affect the process in many cases.

    In my view, the high level view of the random and uncontrollable part of that process is much better called random variation rather than luck.

    Because as soon as you call it ‘luck’, it carries with it a built-in excuse (for bad) or a pejorative element (“you got lucky” for good), neither of which apply.

    If you ask 20 people to roll a die, excellent chance (at least one) someone’s going to end up with a one, and (at least one) someone’s going to have a six.You don’t call the one(s) with the six ‘lucky’ and the one(s) with the one ‘unlucky’ – that’s the naive view.

    The non-naive view expects a distribution.So you call it random variation instead of luck.

    Or not, your call.

    Not sure what this has to do with unforeseeable variance. Did you read my last post? I am saying that it is not luck but we use the term as a kind of shorthsnd. Random is equally wrong.

    This stuff was handled by tbe stats sphere way back in 2011.

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