HOW’S THAT CRAZY TRADE DOING? (2.0)

Do you remember those two draft day trades that involved Los Angeles and St. Louis? How did they work again? Who won? Well, who is winning? Why do we care? Well, it was an early Craig MacTavish trade and since he’s being evaluated in the forensics department let’s have a lash and see what this thing looks like under the hood.

  • First trade: Edmonton trades 37th overall (Valentin Zykov) to Los Angeles for 57th overall (William Carrier), 88th overall (Anton Slephyshev) and 96th overall (Kyle Platzer).
  • Second trade: Oilers trade 57th overall (William Carrier) to St. Louis for 83rd overall (Bogdan Yakimov), 94th overall (Jackson Houck) and 113th overall (Aidain Muir).

It’s basically (for Oiler purposes) Valentin Zykov for Bogdan Yakimov, Anton Slepyshev, Jackson Houck, Kyle Platzer and Aidan Muir. I like to include William Carrier in our look-see (and did it last time) because it’s part of the thought process that went into the deal and it’s fun to see how things are working out.

2013-14 BOXCARS AND NHLE’S

NAME BOXCARS PPG NHLE
VALENTIN ZYKOV (QMJHL) 53, 23-40-63 1.19 82, 11-18-29
WILLIAM CARRIER (QMJHL) 66, 22-43-65 0.985 82, 8-16-24
BOGDAN YAKIMOV (KHL) 33, 7-5-12 0.364 82, 14-9-23
JACKSON HOUCK (WHL) 69, 34-27-61 0.884 82, 12-9-21
AIDAN MUIR (USHL) 54, 14-27-41 0.759 82, 6-11-17
ANTON SLEPYSHEV (KHL) 36, 3-5-8 0.222 82, 5-9-14
KYLE PLATZER (OHL) 66, 22-14-36 0.545 82, 8-5-13

This is pretty much exactly what the bets were on draft day from what I can see, and they remained that way in draft +1 season (2013-14) according to the NHLE’s. I know the limitations of the equivalencies, but they do offer an effective line in the sand for grading out prospects from different leagues. It isn’t a guarantee but it’s something.

In the 2013 draft, Edmonton GM Craig MacTavish dealt down twice, both times passing on a player who projected (in their draft seasons) to be a better NHL prospect moving forward. In exchange for doing it, the Oilers:

  • Bought five bullets and bet their scouts could find a gem in the mist
  • Allowed an entire round (Nic Petan, Tristan Jarry) and most of another round (Eric Comrie) to fly by before selecting.

Year one complete Edmonton was running in place, their men behind Zykov and Carrier. Let’s have a look at how year two is going.

2014-15 BOXCARS AND NHLE’S

NAME BOXCARS PPG NHLE
KYLE PLATZER (OHL) 33, 17-28-45 1.36 82, 13-21-34 (+21)
VALENTIN ZYKOV (QMJHL) 16, 6-12-18 1.13 82, 9-19-28 (-1)
JACKSON HOUCK (WHL) 32, 13-15-28 0.875 82, 10-12-22 (-1)
ANTON SLEPYSHEV (KHL) 40, 6-7-13 0.325 82, 10-11-21 (+7)
AIDAN MUIR (NCHC) 17, 4-5-9 0.529 82, 8-10-18 (+1)
BOGDAN YAKIMOV (AHL) 27, 2-8-10 0.370 82, 3-11-14 (-9)
WILLIAM CARRIER (AHL) 30, 2-3-5 0.167 82, 3-3-6 (-18)

So far this season, Kyle Platzer has been on fire and it’s reflected here. Zykov is exactly where he was one year ago in NHLE but the Platzer has enjoyed a breakout year in the OHL (remember he was obscured in his draft year playing for London, a deep team).

A few things:

  • Zykov is trending well, as this update from Rink Royalty suggests. He’s a big winger with skill and speed, and I think he’s probably still the best player on this list.
  • Kyle Platzer is enjoying a breakout season and if he can sustain this year’s success he might be the man who wins the bet for MacTavish. At training camp, he impressed with his two-way ability and those boxcars above come in a tremendous junior league. Oilers need to get him signed, this is a fine prospect.
  • William Carrier is now a Buffalo Sabres prospect and he’s not getting a lot done in the AHL. Touted as a PF type, he’s not really big and it’s probably reasonable to assume he’s having a tough time getting TOI in Rochester these days (see Hamilton, Pitlick, Moroz etc in OKC). I’d caution against calling him a bust or fail, he just turned 20 for crying out loud.
  • Anton Slepyshev has to get out of the KHL. Even with limited minutes he shows reasonably well here but the guy has real speed and skill. Sign him too.
  • Aidan Muir is having a decent season. Edmonton has no pressure to sign him.
  • Bogdan Yakimov is well down the list but he’s still my choice to emerge as the best among the Edmonton group. He had some injury issues early and the offense is shy so far but he showed very well at TC and is an absolute load.
  • Houck is a bit of a concern. He ran in place while staying in the same leagye (as did Zykov) and that’s not a good sign. Yakimov and Carrier are down but have changed leagues, Houck is scoring at the same levels year over year in the same league. I think they’ll sign him but that’s an issue.

platzer capture

Here’s how I look at this deal: I’m happy with Yakimov as the proxy for a second-round pick (seriously, he’s an excellent prospect despite the AHL boxcars) and with Platzer as a sweetener this trade is looking good for Edmonton at this time. Last time we looked at this deal I wrote:

  • The coolest bullet in the chamber is Zykov. The distance between him and Yakimov is not (to my eye) enough to justify the addition of Houck and Slepyshev who I rate as legit prospects.

This time, a slight change: The coolest bullet in the chamber may be Zykov, but the distance between him and Yakimov is not (to my eye) enough to justify the addition of Platzer and Slepyshev. And I’ll linger just a moment longer to suggest the best player in the group may be Kyle Platzer.

See you next time!

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32 Responses to "HOW’S THAT CRAZY TRADE DOING? (2.0)"

  1. sliderule says:

    Those are the kind of trades were you really have to trust your scouting on those later picks.

    As our track record has been bad on these later picks Mact took a chance.

    Mact spent most of that winter scouting so I assume he felt pretty confident that he knew who he thought they could get with those picks.

    It would be a good idea if he spent the rest of season checking out the junior draft.

  2. Lowetide says:

    sliderule:
    Those are the kind of trades were you really have to trust your scouting on those laterpicks.

    As our track record has been bad on these later picks Mact took a chance.

    Mact spent most of that winter scouting so I assume he felt pretty confident that he knew who he thought they could get with those picks.

    It would be a good idea if he spent the rest of season checking out the junior draft.

    I remember he liked Yakimov, really clear on him. don’t recall the rest but here are the scouts by region that year

    OILERS SCOUTS 2012-13

    Stu MacGregor: Head Amateur Scout, cross checks the world
    Bill Dandy: QMJHL
    Brad Davis: OHL, tier 2 leagues in Q and O
    Kent Hawley: OHL, QMJHL, tier 2 leagues in Q and O
    Bob Brown: WHL, tier 2 leagues, USHL
    Jim Crosson: WHL, tier 2 leagues, USHL
    Scott Harlow: NCAA and American junior leagues (east coast)
    Frank Musil: Europe
    Pelle Eklund: Europe
    Robert Nordmark: Europe
    Jim Cucci: New this season, don’t know his area
    Dave Heitz: New this season, don’t know his area
    Matti Virmanen: New this season, Europe

  3. sliderule says:

    Lowetide,

    I remember reading after they drafted Platzer that Mact and Stu liked him in memorial cup .This was even with limited ice so the OHL scout must have given them a heads up.

    Sleepyshev had a nice WJC after the draft and is doing well in the other tourney in Europe.I like his game a lot and hope he comes over next year.

  4. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Really enjoyable article, LT. Well done.

    This year’s draft is going to be absolutely critical to the franchise’s future. Like 2003 was for so many teams (come back Poo).

    I’m at least partially worried the Nicholson audit results in some major overhauls in the scouting department before the draft and the new team doesn’t have enough time to prepare.

    I’m also making the assumption here that the scouting talent field isn’t that large that there are many good, qualified people just sitting around waiting for jobs. People need to be incentivized and poached from other teams, no?

    MacT finally made it to the WJC yesterday. He is behind the curve a bit and like others have said, he needs to be on the road scouting and be all over this draft like flies on Pouliot.

  5. book¡je says:

    One thing that’s important to remember here is the very small sample size. so any one player can throw off the outcome. We need to assess the decision at the time it was made. Basically MacT traded two 1in 9 chances for five 1 in 10 chances. That’s a win. What happens once you scratch your lottery tickets is just luck (and/or related to the quality of your scouts and your development program.

    With that said, I really appreciate the update on this!

    Happy New Year everyone!

  6. PhrankLee says:

    Come to think of it, I would not be surprised to see this happen again this year with our 2nd. (I would personally spend it on a goalie or Ahl)

    MacT obviously knew what everyone knew about the volume of NHL potential in the collective prospect pool he inherited and made a move to give more choice with regards to size.

    Now when a male lion ousts an older one in a pride the first order of business is to kill all the offspring of the former head of the pride. All of them.

    What he did not appear to recognize is that the actual NHL talent on the big club is far below his expectations and vision. The timeline was grossly miscalculated as well..

    Give a 20 yr old 6 million bucks and no way to get fired and you may have a longer project schedule than you anticipated.

    I’d submit they have performed moderately lower than what this collective blog expected. And WILDLY below what the fan base expected after last year.

    Waiver acquisitions, Leon, He is desperate for bullets but holds an open stall for Gazdic.

    It’s all surreal.

  7. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    PhrankLee,

    Hmm, I could also see the Oilers trading back into the late 1st round with 31st overall + something. If this really compares to 2003, there could be some amazing players in the 20-25 range

  8. sliderule says:

    They definetly have a large scouting staff..I would think that it’s probably largest in NHL.

    The problem with a large staff like that is you might end up with too many voices.

    You retain Stu until after draft and then replace him with the best and brightest available keeping in mind that with a head scout management is as important as scouting ability.The new head scouts first job should be weed out the deadwood.

    At the draft Mact should be doing what all oiler management likes to do and micromanage Stu.This is normally not a good thing but if you lose trust in your people you have to do it until you can replace them.

  9. LMHF#1 says:

    Aulie suspended. Recall Marty?

  10. Woodguy says:

    LMHF#1:
    Aulie suspended. Recall Marty?

    Suspended players remain on the roster.

    Edit: you’re right that they’d need a 7th Dman for the next 2 games, especially with Nikitin skating in sand with a bad back

  11. book¡je says:

    LMHF#1:
    Aulie suspended. Recall Marty?

    “McFly?” asked MacTavish.

  12. wheatnoil says:

    LMHF#1:
    Aulie suspended. Recall Marty?

    Gernat? I don’t think he’s ready yet. 🙂

  13. wheatnoil says:

    book¡je: “McFly?” asked MacTavish.

    Damn it! I like yours better.

  14. frjohnk says:

    I remember Yakimov and Sleppy were better players than Zykov for the Russians at the WJC’s last year.

    I remember looking for Zykov because of this “trade” during the games but he really did not do much.

    Small sample size though.

    Zykov may turn out to the be the best player, but I really like what MacT did here and drafting the players he did are mostly showing good arrows.

  15. johnnyshaka says:

    Pitlick out with a lacerated spleen.

    Could be a full bus load of Barons heading our way.

  16. rickithebear says:

    Yakimov when flanked by C. Hamilton and Pakirinen he tears it up. all even points.
    No f……. PP

    Since yakimov healthy return on NOV 21.
    he has played 18 gm 1EVG 7 EVA +2

    He played:
    nov 21, 22, 26, 28, Dec 20, 21 with C. hamilton, Pakirainen
    6gm 1EVG 5 EVA +4

    Nov 29, Dec 2, 5, 6, 10, 12, 13 with R. Hamilton, Williams
    7GM 0EVG 1EVA -2

    DEC 16, 18 with Moroz; Khaira
    2 gm 0evg 0eva +1

    Dec 27, 28, 31 with Miller; ….
    3gm 1EVA -1

    Lander generates his even points with C. hailton and Pakirinen

    Sorry Yakimov with real AHL players is a NHLE of .463 EVP/gm
    37-38 EVP @ 20

    Does it surprise you 2 slow skaters R. hamilton; Williams drag his numbers down.

  17. Pouzar says:

    rickithebear,

    Yakimov played with Williams? They are both centers. Where did you get this data?

  18. Ice Sage says:

    wheatnoil: Damn it! I like yours better.

    Clever on so many levels – BTTF 2 set in 2015… also Marty Mactee’s DeLorean’s been going back to 1985 for a while – he just keep changing the future for the worse, though

  19. KSC10032 says:

    book¡je: One thing that’s important to remember here is the very small sample size. so any one player can throw off the outcome. We need to assess the decision at the time it was made. Basically MacT traded two 1in 9 chances for five 1 in 10 chances. That’s a win. What happens once you scratch your lottery tickets is just luck (and/or related to the quality of your scouts and your development program. With that said, I really appreciate the update on this! Happy New Year everyone!

    I was going to comment exactly along these lines, but Book;je has articulated this much better than I could have.

    Basically, once you get past the first round or two, its all low percentage stuff, so you go for volume.

    Its the sorting and sifting after the draft picks are made that matters. You can’t realistically sign them all, so its how well you monitor and assist in each prospects’ development between draft day and when you have to fish or cut bait with each kid @ the 50 contract limit. Its this area that concerns me the most, not which specific longshot is selected.

  20. Wolfpack says:

    After watching the WJHC game between Canada and the U.S., the hype surrounding the first two picks was overshadowed a bit for me by Noah Hanifin. Kid is an unbelievable skater. I think that if the Oilers end up picking third, they should grab Hanifin and run like the wind. I realize that a defenceman is not going to help the NHL team as soon as a forward might, but I really think Hanifin looks like a bonafide #1.

  21. Unicorns says:

    KSC10032: I was going to comment exactly along these lines, but Book;je has articulated this much better than I could have.

    Basically, once you get past the first round or two, its all low percentage stuff, so you go for volume.

    Its the sorting and sifting after the draft picks are made that matters.You can’t realistically sign them all, so its how well you monitor and assist in each prospects’ development between draft day and when you have to fish or cut bait with each kid @ the 50 contract limit.Its this area that concerns me the most, not which specific longshot is selected.

    This is true. Like LT said in the last thread, the Oilers draft players they don’t like for player type (he said college D, I’ll add small non-physical forwards) which wastes time and effort because they won’t actually use them long term.

    They also draft players that are low percentage for low percentage picks such as overage BCJHL’ers and big players that can’t skate or score. When you combine the two you get the low contribution from later rounds MacT was complaining about. MacT cleaned it up a bit but there were still some poor choices.

  22. johnnyshaka says:

    Wolfpack,

    I really liked Hanifin’s ability to carry the puck out of his own zone…very bright future for that kid.

  23. Gret99zky says:

    Wolfpack:
    After watching the WJHC game between Canada and the U.S., the hype surrounding the first two picks was overshadowed a bit for me by Noah Hanifin. Kid is an unbelievable skater. I think that if the Oilers end up picking third, they should grab Hanifin and run like the wind. I realize that a defenceman is not going to help the NHL team as soon as a forward might, but I really think Hanifin looks like a bonafide #1.

    The Oilers brass is less likely to rush a Dman than a forward. They are doing the right thing with Darnell Nurse…at least until next year.

  24. till_horcoff_is_coach says:

    Nurse has steadily improved in the tournament. The first game had the same chaos we’ve seen before but the last two games I’ve watched he has picked his moments much better and still remained assertive.

    Last I saw if him from training camp I was convinced he was 2+ years away to being ready to suit up. If this isn’t a mirage then just maybe a half year in the A could be enough to ready him. Oilers still have plenty of opportunity to rush him over his head but good arrows so far.

  25. TheOtherJohn says:

    I have to defer to all of you math experts because you are dealing with probabilities. I assume you know all of the probabilities and have correctly identified them. I also assume that in reaching the probabilities that you have used all 30 NHL history of picks and have used the exact cumulative success rates of each of the 30 teams in arriving at the 1 in9 probability and1/10 probability numbers.

    That is you are using league wide probabilities in each round to come up with the increased probabilities of having multiple picks in lower round.

    That completely ignores who is making the picks. It also leads to the repeated statement that it is all about Iuck.

    Luck ignores, completely who is making the pick.It ignores the process that has lead to your draft list and your ability to identify wheat from chaff. Assume you were stupid enough to waste hundreds of man hours scouting the BCJHL in 2007 and convinced yourself that Riley Nash was an elite player. In those hundreds of wasted hours (Nash is not that good a player) you happened to waste in the BCJHL how the bleep did you miss Jaime Benn, his big body and his 42 goals. And miss him for more than 5 rounds.

    Similarly in 2010. The year that bestowed the Magnificent Bastard nickname on Stu MacGregor we know that the Oilers, again spent hundreds of hours scouting the the Otawa 67’s because they selected Ryan Martindale with the 1st pick in the 3rd round. How in those many many wasted hours in rinks in Ottawa did anyone think Martindale and not Toffoli was the driver of that 67 team? Toffoli was 6 full months younger than Marindale, had 19 more points than Martindale in their draft year and 25 more points in draft +1. One is a top 6 SC contending team winger and the other guy is in the ECHL.

    Buts it’s luck.

    With the greatest of deference their is a high degree of skill involved and watching the BCJHL and missing Benn and selecting Pitlick and Marincin after watching the 67’s and missing Toffli speaks to skill. Or a lack thereof.

    As to trading the 2nd round pick after Fucale was drafted by Montreal In 2013 Nic Petan was available and had scored 46 goals and 74 assists in the regular season and had 28 points in 21 games in the Winterhawks run to the Memorial Cup. That was the obvious pick then and Winnipeg will get a very good soft opposition outscorer out of that pick. Expect he’ll play 250 games +. Us, we’ll be talking about 1/9 and1/10 and luck

    Hate to keep pointing out the ineptitude of our scouting department but outside of the 1st round Since 2007 Oiler draft picks have scored 24 goals. LAK draft picks have scored 290+ goals.

    I can see why we want to use other team draft records for probability purposes because it minimizes just how truly bad we do and points to “average” probabilities

  26. El Duderino says:

    TheOtherJohn,

    Rock on my man.

  27. Dark Asia says:

    If you consider context then it’s actually much worse considering during this period the team was drafting at the very top of every round and had the best opportunities among teams in each round outside the first. They SHOULD have one of the very best records given this advantage – instead they are among the worst – this mismatch between better opportunities and poor results highlights a serious scouting failure (like the team needs more failures given the ball and chains in pro scouting and management).

    TheOtherJohn:

    Hate to keep pointing out the ineptitude of our scouting department but outside of the 1st round Since 2007 Oiler draft picks have scored 24 goals. LAK draft picks have scored 290+ goals.

  28. jp says:

    PhrankLee:
    Come to think of it, I would not be surprised to see this happen again this year with our 2nd. (I would personally spend it on a goalie or Ahl)

    Or turn one 2nd round goalie into five 3rd/4th round goalies? Sign the best 2 when the time comes… Not going to happen, but would be interesting.

    In 2013 that would have been something like:

    Tristan Jarry (#44) (http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=145157)

    For the first 5 goalies picked after slot 80.

    Evan Cowley #92 (http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=159411)
    Juuse Saros #99 (http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=161740)
    Stephon Williams #106 (http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=131019)
    Fredrik Bergvik #117 (http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=168010)
    Kristers Gudlevskis #124 (http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=163423)

    Only time will tell, but that Saros kid looks pretty elite (this years WJr performance aside).

  29. jake70 says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”: >I’m at least partially worried the Nicholson audit results in some major overhauls in the scouting department before the draft and the new team doesn’t have enough time to prepare. .

    One might counter t his by saying that the present group in the last several drafts had ample time to prepare and we sit 30th and they were called out by the GM. (ie..could the new group do any worse?)

  30. leadfarmer says:

    jake70,

    The GM has called out pretty much everyone except for Lowe, Howson, and himself.

  31. rich says:

    leadfarmer:
    jake70,

    The GM has called out pretty much everyone except for Lowe, Howson, and himself.

    Yes, the GM is doing a fine job of throwing everyone under the bus to deflect blame for his 31, scratch that, 19 months on the job. And of course, he won’t blame Howson (who has been back for 19 months) or Lowe (too many years). All that time before he had the ability to make the final decision doesn’t count.

    Assuming that the scouts get turfed, one would certainly hope they will go out and replace them with actual scouts. You know, people that can actually assess talent.

    Might also help if the forensic audit confirmed the management rot and resulted in a new GM who actually has experience picking scouts too.

  32. GCW_69 says:

    From the linked article:

    “Zykov is a highly skilled player. Even better, he’s a well-rounded player. Zykov is strong, big, a great skater, has great vision on the ice, his best assets are his hands and shot. Unlike most Russian skill players, Zykov will go into a corner and come out with the puck after fighting along the boards. Zykov is especially dangerous around the net, with his large frame and technical puck-handling skills.”

    If he brings all that to the NHL, the Oilers will have lost the trade. We wait.

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