OILERS AT AVALANCHE, G39 2014-15

The Oilers have points in each of their last two games and are 1-0-1 since Craig MacTavish took the elevator back up to the gondola. Todd Nelson seems to be getting a feel for things, the Roy and Fraser bets are looking good but the goaltending will keep this thing grounded for the foreseeable future. We’re past ‘the sea was angry that day my friends’ and into the ‘I was in the path of the tornado, I just didn’t expect the storm would last as long as it has’ portion of the season. The fact we know this feeling, that we know this moment, so well, is maybe the most damning thing you can say about the Edmonton Oilers organization. They should give the fans the Order of Canada.

OILERS FORWARDS IN A BOX, AFTER 38 GAMES

PLAYER BOXCARS PROJ14-15 CORSI FOR % OZ STARTS 5X5 PER 60
NUGENT-HOPKINS 36, 11-13-24 80, 24-29-53 50.8 56.8 2.16
BENOIT POULIOT 20, 3-5-8 64, 10-16-26 51.2 62.5 2.11
TAYLOR HALL 32, 10-13-23 76, 24-31-55 51.4 55.9 1.82
DEREK ROY 28, 1-10-11 72, 3-26-29 51.2 70.1 1.75
DAVID PERRON 38, 5-14-19 82, 11-30-41 51.5 62.8 1.72
JORDAN EBERLE 37, 7-14-21 81, 15-31-46 51.7 60.0 1.70
STEVE PINIZZOTTO 18, 2-2-4 62, 7-7-14 46.8 35.8 1.31
TEDDY PURCELL 38, 5-12-17 82, 11-26-37 51.8 59.2 1.28
BOYD GORDON 33, 5-3-8 77, 12-7-19 44.5 18.1 1.08
LEON DRAISAITL 37, 2-7-9 81, 4-15-19 52.1 79.2 1.05
MATT HENDRICKS 33, 3-5-8 77, 7-12-19 47.5 17.4 0.93
NAIL YAKUPOV 38, 4-5-9 82, 9-11-20 47.5 71.2 0.78
MATT FRASER 26, 4-0-4 70, 11-0-11 50.8 51.3 0.67
TYLER PITLICK 14, 1-0-1 49.5 40.5 0.36
LUKE GAZDIC 12, 0-0-0 56, 0-0-0 44.9 67.3 0.00
  • Hall—Nuge—Eberle should stay together, seem to be scoring a goal-a-game lately. Make it two and things should roll. Injury has impacted this line but one positive thing is the emergence of Nuge as a genuine stud. TOI through the roof, top 5×5/60, great Corsi and he faces razor blades and psycho killers every shift. Eberle is getting that shot up again, bodes well. Hall still seems a step slow but what a tiger.
  • Pouliot coming back (maybe tonight!) opens things up because Derek Roy can play middle and you have David Perron and Teddy Purcell available to round out the line. Nail Yakupov, also in photo.
  • Leon should get Nail and Perron (that’s my guess) tonight, this might be his last NHL game until October. I’m impressed with how well he’s handled himself and hopeful the Oilers will do the right thing and add a veteran C to the first-round center they’ll grab (McDavid—Eichel—Strome—Zacha) at the draft.
  • Gordon and Hendricks started with Joensuu, went to Pinizzotto and (imo) Pitlick looked like he was warming to the role before his injury. Now? My guess is Luke Gazdic returns tonight and that line drifts out to sea just like Shannon.

OILERS DEFENSE IN A BOX, AFTER 38 GAMES

PLAYER BOXCARS PROJ14-15 CORSI FOR % OZ STARTS 5X5 PER 60
JEFF PETRY 37, 3-5-8 81, 7-11-18 52.1 45.9 0.46
KEITH AULIE 13, 0-0-0 57, 0-0-0 51.2 45.2 0.00
MARTIN MARINCIN 12, 0-1-1 51.1 48.7 0.33
JUSTIN SCHULTZ 37, 3-12-15 81, 7-26-33 50.9 62.8 1.15
NIKITA NIKITIN 23, 2-3-5 67, 6-9-15 49.8 54.3 0.52
BRAD HUNT 11, 1-2-3 49.1 53.4 0.72
ANDREW FERENCE 35, 2-3-5 79, 5-7-12 48.1 43.6 0.48
OSCAR KLEFBOM 16, 0-2-2 60, 0-8-8 47.9 47.4 0.42
MARK FAYNE 38, 1-4-5 82, 2-9-11 47.4 45.6 0.43
  • Petry shows well here, best Corsi for % combined with some of the toughest zone starts.
  • Schultz’ Corsi number is over 50 and he’s really the only offensive option. I understand his defensive foibles are exasperating but without Hunt (also a tire fire) this team doesn’t have a lot of push the river options.
  • Aulie has been far better than I worried about him being. I don’t understand the suspension but your wall clock has more logic than the NHL head office.
  • Niki Nikitin’s numbers look innocent enough but he’s molasses with suck every night.
  • I’ve liked Andrew Ference far better this season than last one.
  • Oscar Klefbom is playing too many minutes. I like him but they like him more.
  • Mark Fayne is a good defenseman but they may need to get him away from Klefbom. This appears to be the tough minutes pairing now, with Ference—Petry getting the tougher zone starts.

I think that might be the new amateur scouting director of the Edmonton Oilers alongside MacT and Howson. Bob Green has an impressive resume and reputation and with Nicholson’s contacts they should be able to cobble together a strong scouting staff after the draft this summer. Can we do ourselves a favor and blame the correct draft years? The 2007 draft, featuring three first rounders, the 2008 draft—three picks gone because of the Dustin Penner offer sheet—and 2009. Those are the culprits. You can’t fault them for picking Dillon Simpson because Tobias Rieder worked out, that’s crazy. Five years, folks. Blame the 2007-09 drafts for this situation, the Plante’s and the Gagner’s and the Abney’s and the Hesketh’s and even the Lander’s. Not the Klefboms and not even the Simpson’s.

paajarvi blues

    • Jim Matheson:  Magnus Paajarvi has the speed and the size (six-foot-three, 205 pounds) to be a regular NHL player, but something’s missing, which is why he’s back in the AHL today. “When he arrives at the puck, he’s not assertive enough,” said one NHL executive. He’s an engaging kid, but it’s not a good thing when the other 29 teams take a pass on a former first-rounder, only 24, with a low wage ($1.2-million cap hit). The Oilers, who traded him for David Perron, considered putting in a claim but decided against it. Source

It’s worse knowing they considered and then passed on him. The Oilers management (Marincin in minors, Nikitin trade, no center, slow to address G, etc) has a growing list of questionable decisions. I can accept it was the day after a waiver claim for Matt Fraser but the truth is this organization could pick up five guys off waivers and still have reasonable candidates to send down/cut. They’re not a very good hockey team, I believe Paajarvi could make it better. ANOTHER opportunity lost.

Very encouraging news from an independent source. It doesn’t mean the Oilers made a mistake sending him back, in fact should he start next season in the AHL all should consider that a sign of (organizational) maturity. A great defensive prospect is in the system. Music!

The key question now surrounds his ability to learn from his experience (five year’s experience versus one year’s experience five times). The Oilers badly need strong coaching and instruction in the AHL (Nelson may well be here) and if Nurse is in Edmonton then doubly so. Firing Charlie Huddy has cost Daryl Katz millions, I don’t think keeping Kelly Buchberger over him was the right call.

pouliot capture

 BULLETS!

  • Benoit Pouliot may return tonight. It’s a big damn deal. I know many believe Pouliot was a poor investment but for me the big winger is a perfect fit with the top 6F as a complementary forward. He can also fill the Moreau role on a quality checking line. Glad he’s back.
  • Tyler Pitlick sustained a lacerated spleen in the game against Calgary. That’s a serious issue and we shouldn’t expect him back for some time (and I want to wish him the best in his recovery). Pitlick has suffered concussions, injuries to both knees and various other maladies. It’s really a shame because this is an important audition period for him and the young man did appear to be figuring things out.
  • Keith Aulie got two games for that hit in Calgary. It’s a most unseemly decision by the NHL, a league that makes suspension decisions based on how famous the culprit is and extent of injury. Laughable penalty. It’s like Bud Selig runs the NHL. I hope Stajan is okay, that was a crazy pass.
  • Anton Lander has been recalled, hope they put him right into the lineup.
  • It’s D-Day for Leon today. Once Edmonton plays in this game, the Oilers have to decide if they want to keep him. They’ll do the right thing and send him down.

HERE’S LOOKING AT YOU, KID!

ference kassian

I’m not sure who he was talking about, but Andrew Ference was referencing someone in a conversation with Eric Duhatschek of the Globe & Mail. I’m not going to quote the entire article (it’s a worthwhile read and is here) but there’s some iron in the veteran’s words.

  • Ference: “If there is a knock here, there was partly a sense of thinking time was development – and it hasn’t been.”

Yes! Now, I’m going to blame the organization for not providing these young men with sound coaching and fundamentals but yes, I think the organization was guilty of thinking that drafting No. 1 overalls was all that was required. I’m going to blame Steve Tambellini for firing Tom Renney, for me that was an addled decision. Veteran coach improved the team season over season and then they change the works again. Very poor move and it cost Katz millions.

  • More Ference: “It takes individuals to take care of their own backyard and do everything they can on that checklist of what other people are doing around the league – whether that’s nutrition, sleep, recovery, habits. Other people are doing it, and if you’re not, you’re behind – and you always will be until you decide it’s important to do those things as well.”

Well. Ever been in a room full of people when an authority figure was saying the words to everyone but really talking to you? I have been and it’s a pretty damn effective tool. That’s a very specific message to a young person who is screwing the pooch. No doubt.

The other problem here is that every time you hire a new person in authority, GM or coach, they’re going to go back to the beginning and start all over again—and that’s an excuse in and of itself.

The Edmonton Oilers 2015 are that Twilight Zone episode where people are deathly afraid of Billy Mumy. We’ve long passed wishing it into the cornfield and are just hoping for our own survival. If Bob Nicholson is going to make a change, he better be right. No more former Oilers from the glory days without experience, bring in Paul Fenton or Michael Futa.

And no more damn rebuilds. The threads are stripped and the fans want good decisions and a steady, experienced hand. It’s time to grow up in the front office of the Edmonton Oilers.

silverman 5

LOWETIDE WITH LOWETIDE

Friday! Weekend on the way after not much work all week! 10 this morning, TSN 1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Steve Lansky, Bigmouth Sports. World Juniors, Leafs and New Years.
  • Guy Flaming, Pipeline Show. WJ’s, Oil Kings, draft.
  • Dennis King, Oilogosphere icon. Oilers and World Juniors. 🙂
  • Paul Almeida, Saturday Sports Extra.

10-1260 via text @Lowetide_ on twitter. Stay tuned!

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480 Responses to "OILERS AT AVALANCHE, G39 2014-15"

« Older Comments
  1. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Pouzar: Just finished WWII in color on Netflix. Very cool. Thx for the recommendation

    Love that series.

  2. godot10 says:

    Lowetide: Hmm. I don’t think Reimer is significantly behind Ben Scrivens.

    Haven’t you been asserting all year that Scrivens has been the problem, and that Eakins wasn’t. And now you want to spend a 1st round pick on a goaltender worse than Scrivens.

  3. Gerta Rauss says:

    Huh…shots from the point on the PP = success

  4. Lowetide says:

    RexLibris: We all know the real reason is that your media accreditation requires you to support the Eastern Media Bias Conspiracy Organization (also referred to as SPECTRE). I’m just surprised you didn’t throw in Yakupov to sweeten the deal.

    ;)

    Honestly though, I think it speaks volumes about our experiences with this organization that we would entertain that kind of deal as a preferred option to what management seems prone to do otherwise.

    Yep. The scariest thing about this team is the people pulling the levers.

  5. frjohnk says:

    Traffic and rebounds.
    That’s where many goals are.

    We need more Big Bens!

  6. knighttown says:

    Hmm. Pretty sure Nuge was not on that first PP unit. Poo scored and Purcell tapped it in after. Ebs and Schultz drew the assists and Hall was there too.

    Very interesting?

  7. Lowetide says:

    godot10: Haven’t you been asserting all year that Scrivens has been the problem, and that Eakins wasn’t.And now you want to spend a 1st round pick on a goaltender worse than Scrivens.

    Worse than Scrivens? Where are people getting this from? Did I miss something on Reimer?

  8. Pouzar says:

    Suntory Hanzo:
    Pouzar,

    If you can track down Apocalypse: the Second World War, it’s even better. Easily I the best on WW2 in my opinion.

    Started the old pbs Civil war mini series by Ken Burns. Pretty good start about a time period I find fascinating, but don’t know much about. Civil war always comes in two versions: a few sentences about Abe and slaves, or multi volume giant books covering every last detail.

    Wow thx man…the Civil War was something I was thinking about today. I watched some stuff on the Yugoslavian break up in the 90’s last night. No words.

  9. PhrankLee says:

    Ahhh. The huge pursuit guy is back!! Standing in front and everything.

  10. TemujinBC says:

    Hit a deer just outside of McBride. Bumper is all cracked and beat to heck, and there is enough hair in the grill to knit a blanket.

    Rolled into Prince George and checked into the hotel room in time to see the Oil score to tie it up.

    Based on the earlier comments posted here though, the deer fared better than the Oilers D.

    Something Something We Are Here Something Something Other Than Winning

  11. Cameron says:

    Suntory Hanzo:
    Pouzar,

    If you can track down Apocalypse: the Second World War, it’s even better. Easily I the best on WW2 in my opinion.

    Started the old pbs Civil war mini series by Ken Burns. Pretty good start about a time period I find fascinating, but don’t know much about. Civil war always comes in two versions: a few sentences about Abe and slaves, or multi volume giant books covering every last detail.

    If you enjoy podcasts (and who doesn’t?) I highly reccommend ‘Dan Carlin’s Hardcore History’. I got hooked listening to his work on The Mongols and Greeks, but it’s his work on WWI and WWII that is most breathtaking.

    If you are a fan of older eras of history, I would also reccommend Lars Brownworth’s ’12 Byzantine Rulers’ (especially the episodes on Constantine), and ‘The Norman Centuries’

  12. godot10 says:

    Lowetide: Worse than Scrivens? Where are people getting this from? Did I miss something on Reimer?

    You about ten minutes ago
    “Hmm. I don’t think Reimer is significantly behind Ben Scrivens.”

    Behind Scrivens implies worse, does it not?

  13. Lowetide says:

    TemujinBC:
    Hit a deer just outside of McBride.Bumper is all cracked and beat to heck, and there is enough hair in the grill to knit a blanket.

    Rolledinto Prince George and checked into the hotel room in time to see the Oil score to tie it up.

    Based on the earlier comments posted here though, the deer fared better than the Oilers D.

    Something Something We Are Here Something Something Other Than Winning

    Man. That’s tough. Hope you’re okay, that doesn’t sound like a fun evening.

  14. striatic says:

    Cameron: If you are a fan of older eras of history, I would also reccommend Lars Brownworth’s ’12 Byzantine Rulers’ (especially the episodes on Constantine), and ‘The Norman Centuries’

    I’ll second “12 Byzantine Rulers” .. It is fascinating look at an often overlooked but truly epic and remarkable era.

  15. Lowetide says:

    godot10: You about ten minutes ago
    “Hmm. I don’t think Reimer is significantly behind Ben Scrivens.”

    Behind Scrivens implies worse, does it not?

    I said they’re basically the same guy. I think people are looking at Reimer’s .905 and assuming that’s level of ability. Small sample size this season.

    Scrivens has been a tire fire this season, but the bet was a good one imo and he can recover (ala Duvnyk). MUCH rather add Reimer to Scrivens than pay the crazy price for Anderson.

  16. frjohnk says:

    Lowetide: Worse than Scrivens? Where are people getting this from? Did I miss something on Reimer?

    Reimer is better, but its close.

    Last 4 years

    Home Plate Save %
    Ben Scrivens86.8%
    James Reimer87.0%

    Perimeter Save %
    Ben Scrivens96.7%
    James Reimer97.6%
    .

    Home Plate Shots Faced Per 60 Min
    Ben Scrivens 12.9
    James Reimer 13.3

    58% of Reimers starts are “Quality starts”
    30% of Scrivens starts are “Quality starts”
    53% is league average

    Quality starts are when save % is greater than league average for 1 game

    Scrivens with Fasth lead the league in “really bad starts” with 6 each. ( save % of less than 85% in 1 game)
    Reimer has 2.

  17. knighttown says:

    A lot of similarities between these two teams. Both have famous young talent (MacKinnon, Duchene, Landeskog, Barrie, O’Reilly) but both are wildly under performing. In Colorado it seems the coach is handing the keys to the vets more and more; Iginla and Tanguay specifically. Not at the expense of the kids in any dramatic way just some subtle things. I wonder if I don’t see of of that with Nelson. Purcell taking Nuges spot on PP1. Poo and Purcell getting Derek Roy instead of Anton Lander…that sort of thing.

  18. TemujinBC says:

    Lowetide,

    The GF was driving at the time and I was half awake. Spooked her pretty good, could have been way worse though. One of those “there was nothing that could have been done differently” events I would say. She wasn’t speeding and considering the road conditions it was either the deer or us , slamming on the brakes would have been a poor decision (and you know the motherly instinct when there are two boys in the back seat).

    She did express remorse that the poor thing may not have died instantly!

    The six year old was happily telling the gas station attendant in McBride all about it, and that kind of lightened the mood!

  19. blainer says:

    Suntory Hanzo:
    Pouzar,

    If you can track down Apocalypse: the Second World War, it’s even better. Easily I the best on WW2 in my opinion.

    Started the old pbs Civil war mini series by Ken Burns. Pretty good start about a time period I find fascinating, but don’t know much about. Civil war always comes in two versions: a few sentences about Abe and slaves, or multi volume giant books covering every last detail.

    Ken Burns is excellent. Love the civil war. he also did one on Prohibition and Baseball.

  20. PhrankLee says:

    Our passing has been abysmal tonight.

  21. Lowetide says:

    TemujinBC:
    Lowetide,

    The GF was driving at the time and I was half awake.Spooked her pretty good, could have been way worse though.One of those “there was nothing that could have been done differently” events I would say.She wasn’t speeding and considering the road conditions it was either the deer or us , slamming on the brakes would have been a poor decision (and you know the motherly instinct when there are two boys in the back seat).

    She did express remorse that the poor thing may not have died instantly!

    The six year old was happily telling the gas station attendant in McBride all about it, and that kind of lightened the mood!

    Haha. Kids.

  22. knighttown says:

    I like Nelsons job with Gazdic tonight; that is, not playing him at all. Rotating in Eberle and Purcell by eye. I like it becuse it keeps Gordon and Henrdicks as part of the game and because it squeezes some extra TOI from the non-PK wingers. I’d probably use Yak and Hall too or instead of Purcell but the coach seems to really like Teddy.

  23. Cameron says:

    Lowetide: I said they’re basically the same guy.I think people are looking at Reimer’s .905 and assuming that’s level of ability. Small sample size this season

    You have to forgive me LT, but now that you are unsatisfied with the performance of one former Toronto Maple Leaf backup, you really want to trade a 1st rnd pick for another?

    It was your own line ‘goaltenders are voodoo’ that got me thinking hard about what goaltending is actually worth, and while a deal like NJ made (#9 overall for Schneider) was defendable on the grounds that Schneider was functionally elite, Reimer is definitely not.

    You can find a Ryan Miller, or Jonas Hiller on the market each off-season, or you can search out for and sign a Euro netminder with good numbers for free – all low-no cost moves that might improve things substantially without parting with a 1st.

    Hell, Kipprusoff only cost the Flames a 2nd.

    The LOL move would be to sign Dubnyk in the off-season. Come home, all is forgiven, and all that.

  24. Lowetide says:

    knighttown:
    I like Nelsons job with Gazdic tonight; that is, not playing him at all. Rotating in Eberle and Purcell by eye. I like it becuse it keeps Gordon and Henrdicks as part of the game and because it squeezes some extra TOI from the non-PK wingers. I’d probably use Yak and Hall too or instead of Purcell but the coach seems to really like Teddy.

    Agreed. Gazdic is unlikely to be in the lineup when Klinkhammer arrives.

  25. AZOIL says:

    What would Schultz and the Penguins 1st get us for a D?

  26. pboy says:

    Much different energy from the team since Nelson stepped behind the bench. Still a tire fire but a little more cohesive. Seem like they are playing for each other a lot more.

    I’m also liking what I see from Roy. He’s a professional hockey player. Nelson like Purcell more than I do but I think we are on the same page with Nikitin and Gadzic 🙂

  27. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Lander out late in a tie game. Nelson trusts him.

  28. knighttown says:

    AZOIL:
    What would Schultz and the Penguins 1st get us for a D?

    Maybe a 2nd?

  29. Lowetide says:

    Cameron: You have to forgive me LT, but now that you are unsatisfied with the performance of one former Toronto Maple Leaf backup, you really want to trade a 1st rnd pick for another?

    It was your own line ‘goaltenders are voodoo’ that got me thinking hard about what goaltending is actually worth, and while a deal like NJ made (#9 overall for Schneider) was defendable on the grounds that Schneider was functionally elite, Reimer is definitely not.

    You can find a Ryan Miller, or Jonas Hiller on the market each off-season, or you can search out for and sign a Euro netminder with good numbers for free – all low-no cost moves that might improve things substantially without parting with a 1st.

    Hell, Kipprusoff only cost the Flames a 2nd.

    The LOL move would be to sign Dubnyk in the off-season. Come home, all is forgiven, and all that.

    1. I thought MacT made a good bet on Scrivens.
    2. It has NOT worked out.
    3. I’m not certain this season has anything to do with the next one, Scrivens-wise.
    4. I do NOT want MacT to trade 12 things to Ottawa for Anderson.
    5. I’m willing to give up ONE thing, even a valuable one, to continue this trend of making two bets a summer on a mid-20s goalie looking for a home.

  30. frjohnk says:

    knighttown: Maybe a 2nd?

    Brilliant

  31. pboy says:

    Holy fuck! Action must have had like 100 red bulls or something. That’s the most animated I’ve ever seen him. He was talking AND making facial expressions!

  32. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Oh man, Hall is so snake bitten these days 🙁

  33. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Nikitin…man. who was that pass for?

  34. Zelepukin says:

    why is NIkitin on the ice? What a dumb icing.

  35. knighttown says:

    Nikitin can’t skate or pass or Stay healthy or stay off Grebeshkovs hallucinogenics but since it’s “say something nice about someone you can’t stand day” I have to call out that play he made on Iginla early in this game. A puck in the blue with an open net and Iginla with gravity on his side? Probably the player of this generation you’d select first in that spot as he’s so hard on the puck but Nikita won that battle.

    Wonder how Jultzie would have done there?

  36. Unicorns says:

    godot10: The Islanders were a playoff team two years ago.Last year, they had no goaltender, and Tavares got hurt.

    True. That Goal Diff change can’t all be put on that, the acquisitions were a big part. The Oilers can also make roster improvements like that but choose not to or can’t suss it out and can’t seem to spot a vet D worth having anymore.

  37. Lowetide says:

    Nelson solo coaching is going to take us out of McDavid territory. Better trade Petry or Gordon!

  38. AZOIL says:

    Entertaining 4×4 with these two teams!

  39. frjohnk says:

    Lowetide:
    Nelson solo coaching is going to take us out of McDavid territory. Better trade Petry or Gordon!

    Wouldn’t be surprised to see us pass buffalo.

  40. unca miltie says:

    Can we please trade for Duchesne..

    Last oilers game I will see this month..off to Palm springs. Wonder if we will be in 30th when I get back

  41. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Well, Oilers still find ways to lose even when they probably deserve better. So, there’s that. Besides, finishing dead last only gives us 1 in 5 odds on McDavid anyway. Just as long as we’re 29th or worse, that’s ok.

  42. flyfish1168 says:

    One of these day we will see Yak play during O/T or the shoot out. Probably when he is playing on another team

  43. Zelepukin says:

    Lowetide:
    Nelson solo coaching is going to take us out of McDavid territory. Better trade Petry or Gordon!

    We still have one Jultz and one Nikitin, so anything is possible.

  44. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide:
    Nelson solo coaching is going to take us out of McDavid territory. Better trade Petry or Gordon!

    We haven’t hit the trade deadline yet and all it would take is for Gordon’s back to go out again for a few games for this team to find itself fighting another long uphill battle.

    Sweat-drenched losses are still a very strong possibility – and after watching some of McDavid these past few days, holy hannah I’d love to see him in Oilers silks.

  45. VanOil says:

    I did not pay much attention to the game. But in the late moments of overtime I saw Petry calmly skate the puck out of the Oilers zone and thought ‘man I am going to miss that’.

  46. Cameron says:

    Lowetide: 1. I thought MacT made a good bet on Scrivens.
    2. It has NOT worked out.
    3. I’m not certain this season has anything to do with the next one, Scrivens-wise.
    4. I do NOT want MacT to trade 12 things to Ottawa for Anderson.
    5. I’m willing to give up ONE thing, even a valuable one, to continue this trend of making two bets a summer on a mid-20s goalie looking for a home.

    1. I thought Scrivens made great sense as a backup
    2. I still think he does. Especially for Edmonton. He’s super-bright, committed, and a local.
    3. I think by now he is what he is.
    4. Anderson is just too old to be the Oiler’s solution
    5. Assuming you keep Scrivens (he is both younger and better than Fasth IMO), you only need one guy to bet on.

    Would Martin Jones cost a 1st? I don’t think so (but he might).
    Robin Lehner (Sp?) might be a good target, and a late 1st would probably be the right price.
    Heck, Jacob Markstrom is a youngster with decent enough pedigree (other than washing out of two organizations that is) he might fit the bill, and he won’t cost a 1st.
    Khudobin has been awful this year, and he might be popped loose for the right price if you believe in reclamation projects.

    My issue isn’t really with Reimer, but with the suggested price of a 1st. Toronto is cap squeezed (thanks Clarckson!), and Reimer is an expensive luxury as a backup. It’s just a matter of time that he is going to be moved, and I doubt that anybody is going to throw a first TOs way for him (except for MacT. Maybe).

  47. delooper says:

    Oilers losses don’t seem as pathetic as they were before Nelson. Nice to see the increment.

  48. Hammers says:

    Lowetide:
    Nelson solo coaching is going to take us out of McDavid territory. Better trade Petry or Gordon!

    You said it but then again so did I .Nelson has at least got them interested or so it seems plus there ice time is starting to reflect a few things . 2-3 weeks ago I said if you really want the 3oth spot Perron , Petry & Gordon had to be traded . Sure hope I’m wrong and somehow Nelson will get us to 27th and the 4th choice .Buffalo , Carolina and Arizona end up below us .

  49. Don't Bishai says:

    My scattered thoughts pertaining to, or not pertaining to, today’s events:

    1) Re: Perron– It makes sense to cull one RHS forward, as we will probably break Eichel in on the wing.

    2) No we won’t. Eichel will be fed 23 minutes a night of tough minutes centering Purcell and Klinkhammer, after the MacBraintrust trades Gordon on draft day for an extra bullet in the second round to select one diminutive Russian from the QMJHL.

    3) The above line will last three and a half shifts into the first game, when Eichel sustains a season-ending shoulder injury.

    4) After several weeks of observation, I have decided that Yakupov thinks and plays the game like a soccer player. I invite any of you who know and appreciate the beautiful game to keep this in mind when watching him next game, and see if you agree with me.

    5) The lack of execution by our most skilled players, even in wide open odd-man rushes or power plays, is really quite appalling. They didn’t just lose their talent– it’s quite clear they’ve checked out. The only meaningful hockey the young guns have played for the Oilers when winning actually seemed relevant and important has happened in October, and for a brief run in March 2013. That mindset where games don’t matter will probably remove the sharpness and attention to detail from just about any player not named Crosby or Toews, and we can’t even confirm that because those players will never get subjected to such a situation.

    6) The lack of trustworthy defensemen on this roster is why we’ve been so terrible in OT this year. You need at least FOUR guys comprising two full pairs that you can cycle through in OT, who have a snowball’s chance in hell of winning the puck and gaining possession for the team, and starting things positively in the other direction. I count Petry, and maybe Fayne. Klefbom, partially. Jultz should thrive but he just can’t get the puck from an opponent, it’s uncanny. As it stands, every pairing tends to have a weak link on D, and the Oilers seem to spend much of OT chasing the puck.

    7) McDavid. That is all.

  50. Lowetide says:

    Cameron: 1. I thought Scrivens made great sense as a backup
    2. I still think he does. Especially for Edmonton. He’s super-bright, committed, and a local.
    3. I think by now he is what he is.
    4. Anderson is just too old to be the Oiler’s solution
    5. Assuming you keep Scrivens (he is both younger and better than Fasth IMO), you only need one guy to bet on.

    Would Martin Jones cost a 1st? I don’t think so (but he might).
    Robin Lehner (Sp?) might be a good target, and a late 1st would probably be the right price.
    Heck, Jacob Markstrom is a youngster with decent enough pedigree (other than washing out of two organizations that is) he might fit the bill, and he won’t cost a 1st.
    Khudobin has been awful this year, and he might be popped loose for the right price if you believe in reclamation projects.

    My issue isn’t really with Reimer, but with the suggested price of a 1st. Toronto is cap squeezed (thanks Clarckson!), and Reimer is an expensive luxury as a backup. It’s just a matter of time that he is going to be moved, and I doubt that anybody is going to throw a first TOs way for him (except for MacT. Maybe).

    Sure, I threw the first out there because of Scrivens cost. If you can get him for something less, absolutely do it. My main point is let’s not blow our brains out on Anderson.

  51. PunjabiOil says:

    5. I’m willing to give up ONE thing, even a valuable one, to continue this trend of making two bets a summer on a mid-20s goalie looking for a home.

    All this suggests is lack of confidence in the GM.

    And if that’s the case, he’s probably not the right guy going ahead to get them out of the mess.

    I’m not convinced they’ve overly turned things around since Eakins got fired. They’ve just had an easier schedule lately, which they haven’t really taken advantage of. The challenging portion is just around the corner. To Nelson’s credit, he hasn’t dicked around like Eakins and play the inferior goalie (Fasth) more often than not. But we overestimate (myself included) the difference a coach can singlehandedly make, and bypass factors beyond his control. It’s probably a fair statement many of the players are just going through the motions at this point, knowing they’re out of the playoff race and aren’t exerting full effort.

    -Nikitin should obviously be bought out. I’m positive you can find a player to replace him at the same money. Cut your losses.

    -Purcell, good possession numbers, but also -20 and doesn’t really drive the bus. You play out the contract, but he too has been a disappointment.

    -Yakupov – shooting percentage has gone from 21% to 9% to 5.3%. This is a worry, as are his defensive lapses. Sure he hasn’t played with a veteran center, and it’s far too early to give up on him – at the same time, it’s a fair statement for a 1st OV, he has been nowhere near a difference maker as he was projected to be. He’s 21 – he needs to take some responsibility for his own play as well.

    NYI, Detroit, Chicago, and Florida at home coming up. I suspect 1-3.

  52. PunjabiOil says:

    My main point is let’s not blow our brains out on Anderson.

    I wouldn’t give up a 1st for him either, and he’s on the wrong side of 30 (34 years when next season starts), but this sv% has been excellent for the most part

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=42354

    Andrei Vasilevskiy is the guy to acquire IMO. I’d give up both the 1st and 2nd round pick for him. Solidifies you in goal for a long period of time.

  53. PunjabiOil says:

    Well, Oilers still find ways to lose even when they probably deserve better. So, there’s that. Besides, finishing dead last only gives us 1 in 5 odds on McDavid anyway. Just as long as we’re 29th or worse, that’s ok.

    But if you finish 29th, you only have a 33% chance of drafting in the top 2, and a 66% chance of dropping to 3rd OV.

    Make no mistake – they need 30th to guarantee one of McDavid or Eichel.

    And even though right now Carolina is close, I suspect it will be Edmonton and Buffalo competing for 30th.

    They’re just terrible.

  54. AZOIL says:

    PunjabiOil:
    My main point is let’s not blow our brains out on Anderson.

    I wouldn’t give up a 1st for him either, and he’s on the wrong side of 30 (34 years when next season starts), but this sv% has been excellent for the most part

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=42354

    Andrei Vasilevskiy is the guy to acquire IMO.I’d give up both the 1st and 2nd round pick for him.Solidifies you in goal for a long period of time.

    This Andrei sounds nice here: http://www.rawcharge.com/2014/9/17/6146055/tampa-bay-lightning-top-25-under-25-8-andrei-vasilevskiy-prospect-profile

    …but he sounds like the future in Tampa so I doubt they trade him, and it sounds like he isn’t ready yet either.

  55. PunjabiOil says:

    Laurent Brossoit with a .928 SV%

    He’s come out of nowhere it seems. What is his success story attributed to?

    Part of me says it’s small sample size (18 games), he never put up good numbers even in junior. Would be a nice story if he turns out to be an NHL goalie.

  56. Black Frank says:

    Pouzar: Wow thx man…the Civil War was something I was thinking about today. I watched some stuff on the Yugoslavian break up in the 90’s last night. No words.

    Late to jump in on this thread but if you really want the best, most accurate, most comprehensive review of WW2 from end to end get the 11 DVD World At War set produced originally by Thames Television. It covers WW2 from end to end, with interviews of major players on both sides of the conflict, filmed back in the 70’s. Everything else I have seen, is supplementary to this series.

  57. Black Frank says:

    Lowetide: I said they’re basically the same guy.I think people are looking at Reimer’s .905 and assuming that’s level of ability. Small sample size this season.

    Scrivens has been a tire fire this season, but the bet was a good one imo and he can recover (ala Duvnyk). MUCH rather add Reimer to Scrivens than pay the crazy price for Anderson.

    As Scrivens shakes off his Chabotitis he is starting to settle down.

  58. Black Frank says:

    PunjabiOil:
    5. I’m willing to give up ONE thing, even a valuable one, to continue this trend of making two bets a summer on a mid-20s goalie looking for a home.

    All this suggests is lack of confidence in the GM.

    And if that’s the case, he’s probably not the right guy going ahead to get them out of the mess.

    I’m not convinced they’ve overly turned things around since Eakins got fired.They’ve just had an easier schedule lately, which they haven’t really taken advantage of. The challenging portion is just around the corner.To Nelson’s credit, he hasn’t dicked around like Eakins and play the inferior goalie (Fasth) more often than not.But we overestimate (myself included) the difference a coach can singlehandedly make, and bypass factors beyond his control.It’s probably a fair statement many of the players are just going through the motions at this point, knowing they’re out of the playoff race and aren’t exerting full effort.

    -Nikitin should obviously be bought out.I’m positive you can find a player to replace him at the same money.Cut your losses.

    -Purcell, good possession numbers, but also -20 and doesn’t really drive the bus.You play out the contract, but he too has been a disappointment.

    -Yakupov – shooting percentage has gone from 21% to 9% to 5.3%.This is a worry, as are his defensive lapses.Sure he hasn’t played with a veteran center, and it’s far too early to give up on him – at the same time, it’s a fair statement for a 1st OV, he has been nowhere near a difference maker as he was projected to be.He’s 21 – he needs to take some responsibility for his own play as well.

    NYI, Detroit, Chicago, and Florida at home coming up.I suspect 1-3.

    I’m thinking 2-2 and could even be 3-1 as Nelson continues to turn things around with commons sense and understanding. I also notice he’s pleasantly ruthless (mostly) in ho he handles the players. As in, goodbye Pinizotto, hello Klinker.
    Not his fault Perron asked out while Dallas was in his death throws.

  59. Black Frank says:

    So that’s it for me, good night everyone. I may be back for the next game, not sure right now. At least this team is hanging in to the end now. Even in a 3 in 4 at altitude.

  60. CrazyCoach says:

    TemujinBC:
    Hit a deer just outside of McBride.Bumper is all cracked and beat to heck, and there is enough hair in the grill to knit a blanket.

    Rolledinto Prince George and checked into the hotel room in time to see the Oil score to tie it up.

    Based on the earlier comments posted here though, the deer fared better than the Oilers D.

    Something Something We Are Here Something Something Other Than Winning

    Drove along that same highway and got home (PG) about 8. Horrible roads. Glad you are OK and waiting till morning to drive. I hear 16 West is pretty bad.

  61. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    PunjabiOil:
    Well, Oilers still find ways to lose even when they probably deserve better. So, there’s that. Besides, finishing dead last only gives us 1 in 5 odds on McDavid anyway. Just as long as we’re 29th or worse, that’s ok.

    But if you finish 29th, you only have a 33% chance of drafting in the top 2, and a 66% chance of dropping to 3rd OV.

    Make no mistake – they need 30th to guarantee one of McDavid or Eichel.

    And even though right now Carolina is close, I suspect it will be Edmonton and Buffalo competing for 30th.

    They’re just terrible.

    I made no mistake, sir. I’m perfectly happy. Thrilled, in fact, with Hanifin.

  62. Bruce McCurdy says:

    PunjabiOil:
    Laurent Brossoit with a .928 SV%

    He’s come out of nowhere it seems.What is his success story attributed to?

    Part of me says it’s small sample size (18 games), he never put up good numbers even in junior.Would be a nice story if he turns out to be an NHL goalie.

    I just wrote this on Brossoit. He did indeed post good numbers in junior. And in the ECHL. And now in the AHL. Gord willing, he’s starting to look like the real deal.

  63. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    I ragged on MacT for not shopping Smid to the East and maximizing value, and in the early days it did not look good with Horak bolting and Brossoit struggling. I’m looking up recipes for crow just in case because LB is showing really well now and the sample size is growing. Hope I find out what it tastes like. Would be the best thing for this team.

    This is why I’m in favour of a guy like Niemi. He will cost far less to acquire than any of Reimer, Crawford, Anderson, or Vasilevsky. His save percentage track record runs from. 912 in bad years to. 920 in good. San Jose is ready to hand Stalock the reins next year. Give Niemi the Halak deal and he should be happy to be here. Run Niemi-Scrivens next year then Niemi-Brossoit with a 60-20 split. Then the next year, 50-30, 40-40, and then in Niemi’s walk year it should be 55-25 Brossoit. In the mean time that gives you 4 years to find a 1b or whatever to push Brossoit.

    To me this makes too much sense over blowing valuable assets like the high 2nd and late 1st for expensive goalies that are going to be only marginally better than Niemi.

    I want to use those picks in a package to acquire a great C or D instead.

  64. PhrankLee says:

    Bruce McCurdy: He did indeed post good numbers in junior. And in the ECHL. And now in the AHL. Gord willing, he’s starting to look like the real deal.

    Plug the hole with Enroth for 2 years at 3.5

  65. PhrankLee says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”: To me this makes too much sense over blowing valuable assets like the high 2nd and late 1st for expensive goalies that are going to be only marginally better than Niemi.

    But in the spirit of statistics a goalie marginally better than Niemi would have delivered on some of the 1 goal games. Let’s give him half of them. I think it would equal or 15 points or better!

    That puts us with this dreadful squad in the low 40s for points. Fifty-something games left. That’s in the hunt, almost. That’s all we ever talk about in the summer. Meaningful games after February.

    I never saw this squad getting in the playoffs this year but it was supposed to be the true look-the-fuck-out-for-these-guys-they-are-spooky-fast-and-so-strong year. Nuge is doing it. 🙂

    That’s on the GM, wholly.

  66. PunjabiOil says:

    .914 and. 917 in junior are good, but not great numbers. Top goalies usually post north of. 920, some even higher.

    And most of them still don’t end up making it as a regular.

    As a disciplined investor, would prefer a larger sample size. Early signs are encouraging however.

  67. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    PhrankLee,

    Niemi is sporting a. 919 this year. Marginally better than that is outstanding. If this team had a. 919 sv pct we would be looking at a very different current situation. Still outside the playoffs but not this bad.

  68. Surly says:

    TemujinBC:
    Lowetide,

    The GF was driving at the time and I was half awake.Spooked her pretty good, could have been way worse though.One of those “there was nothing that could have been done differently” events I would say.She wasn’t speeding and considering the road conditions it was either the deer or us , slamming on the brakes would have been a poor decision (and you know the motherly instinct when there are two boys in the back seat).

    She did express remorse that the poor thing may not have died instantly!

    The six year old was happily telling the gas station attendant in McBride all about it, and that kind of lightened the mood!

    100% the right call. My father-in-law worked with the gov’t for highway safety and they see far more severe accidents from drivers trying to swerve to miss an animal vs. taking the contact (especially in inclement weather). Glad to hear everyone is OK.

  69. PhrankLee says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”:
    PhrankLee,

    Niemi is sporting a. 919 this year. Marginally better than that is outstanding. If this team had a. 919 sv pct we would be looking at a very different current situation. Still outside the playoffs but not this bad.

    We bet heavily on Scrivens covering off at .920 (Dubnyks career number or close to it). Fasth was overqualified as a backup…

    Who thought they would ever bemoan the release of dopey ol’ DD?

    Mike Smith has to regress to the meat soon. He has been smoked and charred.

  70. frjohnk says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”:
    PhrankLee,

    Niemi is sporting a. 919 this year. Marginally better than that is outstanding. If this team had a. 919 sv pct we would be looking at a very different current situation. Still outside the playoffs but not this bad.

    Niemi might be the guy we go after and he could be great for us.

    The problem I have is that he has put up average to good numbers on a great team.

    He faces 11.7 home plate shots per 60 min. That is in the area of Quick and Raask who see 10.7 and 11.1 home plate shots per 60 min.

    Neuvirth and Dubnyk have had the toughest home plate shot load for goalies with big TOI, they have faced 14.1 and 15 home plate shots per 60 min respectively.

    Last 4 years

    Home Plate Save %
    Ben Scrivens 86.8%
    James Reimer 87.0%
    Antti Niemi 86.8%

    Perimeter Save %
    Ben Scrivens 96.7%
    James Reimer 97.6%
    Antti Niemi 97.3%

    Niemi is just a tad above both in league average but he faces more shots from the perimeter than the league average. This bumps up his overall save % ever so slightly.

    Niemi also has a 55% quality start number, League average is 53%.

    The numbers are showing to me his a just above average goalie who has played on great teams.

    What happens when you take a just above average goalie and put him on a shitty team?

    Probably better than what Scrivens and Fasth have done but how much?

    Again he could be really good for us but I think we should be looking for a goalie who has put up good numbers on a shitty to average team.

    If a goalie can prove he can survive by being shellshocked like the guys playing for Bufffalo or Toronto this year then he can play for Edmonton and most likely do well.

    Shots against per 60 min top 10 goalies and I put Niemi at the bottom
    Name SA/60
    Michal.Neuvirth 36.14
    James.Reimer 35.53
    Jhonas.Enroth 34.37
    Calvin.Pickard 33.6
    Anton.Forsberg 33.55
    Semyon.Varlamov 33.31
    Jonathan.Bernier 33.24
    Sergei.Bobrovsky 33.19
    Craig.Anderson 33.07
    Devan.Dubnyk 32.96
    Antti Niemie 29.92

  71. PhrankLee says:

    frjohnk,

    It’s why I like Enroth coming into UFA. 2 years, double his current pay as is wont to do with UFAs.

    Plays for Buffalo… is that a shitty enough team? lol!!

  72. frjohnk says:

    PhrankLee:
    frjohnk,

    It’s why I like Enroth coming into UFA. 2 years, double his current pay as is wont to do with UFAs.

    Plays for Buffalo… is that a shitty enough team? lol!!

    yup. If Buffalo had the save % of the oiler goalies, they would have about 10 points if lucky.
    They are a shitty shittty shitty team.

    If Oilers had goalies that had Buffalo save %, we could be around Flames territory. Not in the playoffs, but not staring down McEichel.

  73. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    frjohnk,

    PhrankLee,

    Those are fair comments.

    However, Neuwirth has a smaller sample size/ shorter track record of being a good goaltender. Now, is that partly due to his own improvement and he is good now? Maybe. Oilers’ pro scouts should be heavily scouting Buffalo anyway to see if one of the two there, Enroth or Neuwirth, are worth betting on. But to me, he seems more in the Scrivens model of “proven.”

    Niemi and Scrivens aren’t comparable, though, in my opinion. Scrivens was never #1 in Toronto or LA.

    And yes, Niemi may only turn out to be a bit above average. Ideally we’d have nabbed a guy like Bishop right before he blooms, but I’m trying to be realistic and also not break the bank asset-wise on goaltending.

    Right now, I’d take a year of average goaltending at .915 over anything we’ve had since Roloson.

  74. oliveoilers says:

    Surly: 100% the right call.My father-in-law worked with the gov’t for highway safety and they see far more severe accidents from drivers trying to swerve to miss an animal vs. taking the contact (especially in inclement weather).Glad to hear everyone is OK.

    That and you are more likely to flip it in the ditch. Coupled with all crumple zones are designed for a head on hit.

    Good to hear everyone is OK!

  75. frjohnk says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”:
    frjohnk,

    PhrankLee,

    Those are fair comments.

    However, Neuwirth has a smaller sample size/ shorter track record of being a good goaltender. Now, is that partly due to his own improvement and he is good now? Maybe. Oilers’ pro scouts should be heavily scouting Buffalo anyway to see if one of the two there, Enroth or Neuwirth, are worth betting on. But to me, he seems more in the Scrivens model of “proven.”

    Niemi and Scrivens aren’t comparable, though, in my opinion. Scrivens was never #1 in Toronto or LA.

    And yes, Niemi may only turn out to be a bit above average. Ideally we’d have nabbed a guy like Bishop right before he blooms, but I’m trying to be realistic and also not break the bank asset-wise on goaltending.

    Right now, I’d take a year of average goaltending at .915 over anything we’ve had since Roloson.

    I agree with this. Scrivens, Enroth and Nuevirth all had the same sample size heading into this season. Enroth and Nuevirth took 1 step forward, Scrivens took 2 steps back.

    Goalies can be voodoo, even in the NHL, and even moreso when they come to the goalie graveyard in Edmonton.

    If we can get .915 save %. That be great

  76. Bruce McCurdy says:

    PunjabiOil:
    .914 and. 917 in junior are good, but not great numbers. Top goalies usually post north of. 920, some even higher.

    And most of them still don’t end up making it as a regular.

    As a disciplined investor, would prefer a larger sample size. Early signs are encouraging however.

    Those are regular season #s. In the playoffs LB posted .933 and .935, for an overall save percentage north of .920 his last two years in Edmonton. Same thing last year in Bakersfield. Extended playoff runs all three years, for an overall sample size of 220 games, which is pretty darn large for a goalie in a three-year span.

  77. Bruce McCurdy says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”: Right now, I’d take a year of average goaltending at .915 over anything we’ve had since Roloson.

    Dubnyk posted .916, .914 and .921 in the three seasons before MacT “had to ask the question”.

  78. spoiler says:

    Woodguy: About 5 different reporters from different markets have the deal done but waiting for Denmark to be done at WJR because Kelowna has to move an import to make room for Saddle and apparently that kid is it.It’s been everywhere in hockey media the last few days.

    So I take it you weren’t following along the conversation, since you are basically repeating us?

  79. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    In the full 82 game seasons over the past 5 years, the Oilers have received:

    2013-2014: .904
    2011-2012: .912
    2010-2011: .903
    2009-2010: .900

    So yes, I’d take .915 please.

    Smaller sample sizes
    2014-2015: .892
    2012-2013: .920

  80. Hockeyman 99 says:

    Raantanen would be nice if he was still threre with Pitsburghs pick. Can anyone recall a 6’4″ Center going in the last half of the 2003 draft

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