GREEN ACRES

Details are sketchy but it appears Bob Green has been elevated in the Edmonton Oilers hierarchy. It’s folly to speculate, so let’s begin the conversation with what we know. Spotlight on Bob McKenzie’s twitter:

Interesting. Lots of possible areas to discuss, I’ll pass over this portion of the day but reserve the right to wheel back later. I think it’s probably going to be difficult to replace a scouting department mid-season but tweaking is possible. It’s also likely Green has worked closely with the scouts in his previous role so it should be a smooth transition.

O'Connor

MATT O’CONNOR

  • Elliotte Friedman“The other thing too is they are really in on a goalie by the name of Matt O’Connor, who is an NCAA player who is having a great year. He’s got a goals against average, last time I checked, below 2.00. There’s about five or six teams, at least – probably even more – that are really high on him, including a number of the Canadian teams. I know Edmonton really wants to bring him in.” Source

This is important on all kinds of levels. Edmonton is likely to use a draft pick on a goaltender this summer but acquiring O’Connor may push that selection outside the first two rounds. O’Connor’s resume is solid, I have no idea if that makes him a good NHL prospect—although six teams interested suggests there’s something there. In case you don’t know (or recall) Edmonton was able to secure a highly-rated college goalie in the early days of the century when Ty Conklin signed with the Oilers. Detroit was apparently the other strong contender.

WHAT IMPACT WILL BOB GREEN HAVE ON THE OILERS DRAFTING?

No idea, but we can guess (and that’s the fun of this kind of day). Here are a few (wild) guesses:

  • The Oilers (from what we know) used goalie coach Fred Chabot in some of their evaluations of previous drafts. That will change, where it be Dustin Schwartz or another goalie/scout.
  • Green is very familiar with the Edmonton Oil Kings. The NHL plucked five Oil Kings one year ago and Green would have known them well. Will Edmonton select some eligible OK’s this year? Perhaps goalie Patrick Dea or forward Andrew Koep? Something to follow.
  • Green is very familiar with the WHL. That could mean a bias toward the western league, although Edmonton already sways that way.
  • Green has very good knowledge of men like Mark Pysyk, Curtis Lazar, Griffin Reinhart. I’ve long suspected he was partly (or more) responsible for the acquisition of Laurent Brossoit. Why stop there?

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR STU MACGREGOR?

No idea, but this can’t be a good time for MacGregor or the organization’s scouts. In the early days of his time as scouting director, this blog and its author helped coin his nickname and promote MacGregor a great deal. As with many things in life, much of that initial verbal has been used on twitter and in other forums as ammunition to discredit or mock MacGregor for the job he’s done as Oilers scouting director. For my involvement in same, or any discomfort he may have felt due to my words, I offer my sincere apologies to him.

It was never my intent to contribute in such a way.

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76 Responses to "GREEN ACRES"

  1. Halfwise says:

    LT, you are a class act.

    The Oilers have walked a long way up a dead-end road, and are in the process of turning around and making their way back to the NHL highway.

    I wish Bob Green the best, whether his role includes scouting along with development or not. I also wish him extraordinary powers in whatever passes for meetings among the Oiler braintrust. Flawed evaluation of strengths and weaknesses, imbalance in roster makeup, impulsive coaching choices, failed development and cap mis-management, all of these point to a decision making style that over the past 8 years has been worse than the average NHL team.

    They’ll need good people, but they’ll also need to figure out a way to change how decisions get made once those good people have brought their input.

  2. spoiler says:

    WG and Rom…

    Here’s a link to NBC’s summary of the story requested in the last thread; the one about Renney clarifying his remarks, stating that he did not say the kids were forced back from injury.

    The original story from The Journal has disappeared into the miasma that is their site. But IIRC Matty wrote it.

    Sorry, been busy this afternoon.

  3. Big Dan says:

    He did a great job on the Oil Kings so he has a track record.

    Hopefully he fires the scouts who are incompetent. Who was the guy who pushed hard for Cameron Abney? I remember reading the writeup and thinking- “For this fact alone, this guy should be fired. He has no clue.” I think it was Bob Brown?

    You can’t have more than one Bob “Last Name is a Color” on your staff.

  4. Lowetide says:

    I don’t know if you fire the scout, can’t comment because maybe he’s the guy who discovered Joey Laleggia (who looks like a good pick). I think staying away from the BCJHL for the rest of the decade is good advice though.

  5. RexLibris says:

    Green has worked closely with MacGregor and his scouts before.

    When they picked up Pelss and Gernat in the WHL draft it was based off information from the Oilers’ scouting staff that the kids were interested in coming over. Some of that info was gathered by Frank Musil, according to the information I was able to find a few years back. http://oilersnation.com/2012/9/26/corporate-integration

    The Oil Kings drafted Martin Gernat and Kristians Pelss on the advice of Stu MacGregor and his scouting staff who told Bob Green that the players may not be high on as many CHL team’s lists because of the obscurity of their home leagues. Green credited his communication with MacGregor and the Oilers’ scouting staff with helping them draft so well in that import draft.

    Both prospects had been selected by the Oilers only a few days earlier, so to some extent the word was out that they were potential NHL players. However, Gernat was a 5th round pick in 2011 and Pelss a 7th rounder the year prior. As draft pedigrees go, to an outsider they would appear to be draft-day long shots to make the NHL.

    If we want to connect some dots we could say that MacTavish has improved the scouting targets (size with skill as opposed to in spite of it) and if we then say that Green would have to be aligned with MacTavish’s priorities in this regard then presumably this would suggest an improvement could be expected in the drafting record.

    Having Green overlook the amateur scouting may prevent some Bouchard/Coughlin picks, but more importantly, if it can prevent further Mark Fraser acquisitions then the organization will be well served.

  6. VanOil says:

    I hate wasting draft picks on goal tenders, the rate of return is too small. If the Oilers can secure the services of Matt O’Conner to take away some angst and only use the pick the secure for shipping out Fatsh I would be happy.

    Gary Lawless was just on TSN stating the Jets should trade some of there defensive depth for 3d or 4th line forwards. I would never follow the advice of Lawless if I were the Jets (he has been try to run Buff out of town for years) but in the unlikely event he is right MacT should make a phone call.

  7. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide:
    I don’t know if you fire the scout, can’t comment because maybe he’s the guy who discovered Joey Laleggia (wholooks like a good pick). I think staying away from the BCJHL for the rest of the decade is good advice though.

    Unless it’s one of these guys:

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=99822

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=127795

    then, yes. absolutely. Just tell the guys in Vernon to stop letting Bob Brown into the rink.

  8. spoiler says:

    Matt O’Connor Hockey Card:
    …………………………………..

    Goalie

    Born: Feb 14 1992 — Toronto, ONT (22 yrs. old]

    Height: 6′ 05″ — Weight: 201 lbs

    …………………………………………………………………..
    2012-13 Boston University H-East 2.86 8-8-2 0.910

    2013-14 Boston University H-East 2.89 7-9-4 0.920

    2014-15 Boston University H-East 1.76 10-2-2 0.939
    …………………………………………………………………..

    He’s a 23yo aged goalie in his third year of NCAA…

    I can’t figure out if that is a good thing or a bad thing. He’s old for the league. But also he’s a goalie and the older they are, the better we should know what they are. Right? Less witchcraft?

    Jesus, he’s a tall bugger.

  9. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide:
    I don’t know if you fire the scout, can’t comment because maybe he’s the guy who discovered Joey Laleggia (wholooks like a good pick). I think staying away from the BCJHL for the rest of the decade is good advice though.

    You could always do like Scott Howson did immediately following the 2012 draft when he fired four of their scouting staff.

    http://bluejacketsxtra.dispatch.com/content/blogs/puck-rakers/2012/06/scouts-fired.html

    “Good job, guys. Thanks for all your hard work. Now please leave your security pass on my desk.”

  10. Lowetide says:

    RexLibris: You could always do like Scott Howson did immediately following the 2012 draft when he fired four of their scouting staff.

    http://bluejacketsxtra.dispatch.com/content/blogs/puck-rakers/2012/06/scouts-fired.html

    “Good job, guys. Thanks for all your hard work. Now please leave your security pass on my desk.”

    I suspect that’s exactly what we’ll see. Stay the course until the draft is over and then re-make your staff in the summer.

  11. B S says:

    Lowetide:
    I don’t know if you fire the scout, can’t comment because maybe he’s the guy who discovered Joey Laleggia (wholooks like a good pick). I think staying away from the BCJHL for the rest of the decade is good advice though.

    From what I recall Joey was a RNH pick. Good friend of his and suggested they consider him as a solid offensive defenseman.

  12. Johnny says:

    If I was a UFA goalie prospect, there is no way I would go to Edmonton to have my career submarined.

    Just sayin.

  13. spoiler says:

    Nothing against Bob Green, or the title of this post, but damn I hated that TV show like I have never hated a TV show before and since.

    If one could conceive of such things back in the 70s, I would have launched a jihad against CKSA for shoving this down our throats every day after school, instead of something cool like Mission Impossible or Maverick or something. (They had the Star Trek base well-covered).

    I would even take Gilligan over Green Acres. At least the girls were worth ogling.

    That said, I was totally expecting some Eva cheesecake when I clicked through. Or Wilbur.

  14. Zangetsu says:

    The thing I can’t figure out is the difference between 13 and 14 drafts. Sure 14 was missing some picks, but there were a lot of guys falling, and there wasn’t much visible logic behind our picks. I believe the pro scouting staff is offed, but I still think a lot of the amateur scouting is ok. The BCHL guy is listened to way too much, but I think the biggest problem is superior intervention. Moroz, Musil, Ewanyk, etc were guys that management were familiar with, and seemed to be pushing. As far as I’m concerned all the GM should do is call out the name on the top of the list. Draft picks aren’t for a year down the road (unless you’re the oilers).

  15. russ99 says:

    I really think this move is more to shore up and give oversight to pro scouting than it is to replace Stu or gut amateur scouting.

    Bob Nicholson supposedly has the power to make changes, and unless things are more inept than the most critical blogger suspects, he’s going to do that.

    This puts oversight in place over areas where undoubtedly questionable decisions have been made while the staffing decisions are made on who to keep or remove are made. No doubt scouting hires are done in the offseason, I don’t see the org hiring the next great scouting team during the season.

  16. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    spoiler:
    WG and Rom…

    Here’s a link to NBC’s summary of the story requested in the last thread; the one about Renney clarifying his remarks, stating that he did not say the kids were forced back from injury.

    The original story from The Journal has disappeared into the miasma that is their site.But IIRC Matty wrote it.

    Sorry, been busy this afternoon.

    Thanks for the link. I missed this whole situation whenever it came out (looks like Oct.)

    From my read, this situation certainly adds to the problem as I laid it out: Oilers management over-value playing through injury.

    This is simply more information confirming their piss poor lack of judgment.

    One funny ripple is that the coach is the guy thinking long term in this situation and management is the one living for today… usually you’d expect it to be the other way around with mgt. taking the long view.

    Always something crazy in Oilers’ Land!

  17. Lowetide says:

    spoiler:
    Nothing against Bob Green, or the title of this post, but damn I hated that TV show like I have never hated a TV show before and since.

    If one could conceive of such things back in the 70s, I would have launched a jihad against CKSA for shoving this down our throats every day after school, instead of something cool like Mission Impossible or Maverick or something.(They had the Star Trek base well-covered).

    I would even take Gilligan over Green Acres. At least the girls were worth ogling.

    That said, I was totally expecting some Eva cheesecake when I clicked through. Or Wilbur.

    Ha! I used to come home and do chores, so CKSA ran The Patridge Family and Granda Sneezby when I got to the television. I didn’t like Green Acres either. :-)

    LOVED Laugh-In.

  18. JamesL says:

    LT,

    Sensing a good deal of wistfulness and regret in your final grafs. Do you feel that Mr. MacGregor is being hung out to dry (in a sense) for the sins of others?

    James

  19. Lowetide says:

    Zangetsu:
    The thing I can’t figure out is the difference between 13 and 14 drafts. Sure 14 was missing some picks, but there were a lot of guys falling, and there wasn’t much visible logic behind our picks. I believe the pro scouting staff is offed, but I still think a lot of the amateur scouting is ok. The BCHL guy is listened to way too much, but I think the biggest problem is superior intervention. Moroz, Musil, Ewanyk, etc were guys that management were familiar with, and seemed to be pushing. As far as I’m concerned all the GM should do is call out the name on the top of the list. Draft picks aren’t for a year down the road (unless you’re the oilers).

    Agreed. I’ve been staring at that 2014 draft since it happened, and the Leon, Lagesson and Nagelvoort picks are excellent to good to defensible.

    After that? I can’t figure it our for love nor money. They must have ‘had a passion’ like a fever!

  20. Rondo says:

    Having Jack Eichel on your team does not hurt Matt O’Connor.

  21. frjohnk says:

    How bad is Buffalo?

    Carolina looks like an allstar team against them tonight.

    Shots are 28 to 11 for Carolina
    4-1 Carolina in the third.

  22. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: Ha! I used to come home and do chores, so CKSA ran The Patridge Family and Granda Sneezby when I got to the television. I didn’t like Green Acres either.

    LOVED Laugh-In.

    Yep, LOVED Grampa Sneezby. He introduced me to “I`ll do the thinning` round here Bobba Louie“.

    “But Queeeksdraw…!“

    Also liked Laugh-In a lot, as well as the Deano Roasts. Still pull the roasts up on Youtube from time to time.

  23. Lowetide says:

    JamesL:
    LT,

    Sensing a good deal of wistfulness and regret in your final grafs. Do you feel that Mr. MacGregor is being hung out to dry (in a sense) for the sins of others?

    James

    No, I think he had his bullets and fired them. You can make allowances for injuries and mishandling—and I have in the case of Pitlick, Hamilton (inj) and Lander (mishandling)—but the scouting staff made their picks and have to live with them.

    I do think it is wildly unfair to bury the kids taken 2011-14 but if they haven’t seen enough from the scouting department then so be it.

    Now, that’s different than agreeing with the decision. :-)

  24. spoiler says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Thanks for the link. I missed this whole situation whenever it came out (looks like Oct.)

    From my read, this situation certainly adds to the problem as I laid it out: Oilers management over-value playing through injury.

    This is simply more information confirming their piss poor lack of judgment.

    One funny ripple is that the coach is the guy thinking long term in this situation and management is the one living for today… usually you’d expect it to be the other way around with mgt. taking the long view.

    Always something crazy in Oilers’ Land!

    Like to know how you came to that conclusion from that article…

  25. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: No, I think he had his bullets and fired them. You can make allowances for injuries and mishandling—and I have in the case of Pitlick, Hamilton (inj) and Lander (mishandling)—but the scouting staff made their picks and have to live with them.

    I do think it is wildly unfair to bury the kids taken 2011-14 but if they haven’t seen enough from the scouting department then so be it.

    Now, that’s different than agreeing with the decision.

    I think the thing is we’ll never completely know how much rope they had or how much tinkering happened at the draft table and by whom.

    The one big question I have on Stu is that damn interview right after 2014 draft where he says:

    “actually, I had to fight with him [MacT] to draft the goaltenders.”

    https://twitter.com/RomulusNotNuma/status/482950260973895680

    I can’t get that out of my head. He needs to own that, which is different from saying he has to be fired for it.

  26. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    spoiler: Like to know how you came to that conclusion from that article…

    It’s as plain as day in the article. It’s only like 500 words long. I’ll just quote it for you:

    “My example of that was that with respect to a young team and managing their ice time accordingly, so as to keep them healthy, and coach for the future, as opposed to the moment, which is very much what the NHL is all about, I may have paid the price for that.”

    It’s an important clarification, because as the Journal’s Jonathan MacKinnon writes, “A disagreement over appropriate ice time for emerging stars is one thing, but being instructed to force-feed minutes to players who have returned from surgery enters the area of maltreatment of those players.”

    If there was a breakdown in translation, we imagine it may have been related to the fact that Renney wanted to avoid overplaying the Oilers’ young talent in order to reduce the chance of injury.

    “My whole motivation was so that we could play injury free,” he said.

  27. supernova says:

    Lowetide: Agreed. I’ve been staring at that 2014 draft since it happened, and the Leon, Lagesson and Nagelvoort picks are excellent to good to defensible.

    After that? I can’t figure it our for love nor money. They must have ‘had a passion’ like a fever!

    Lowetide,

    Zangetsu,

    The only Plausible reason I can see is that they were concerned about to many prospects developing at the same time and wanted college kids they held the rights to longer.

    This is completely idiotic to me.

    Trade all the late draft picks then for a higher selection – problem solved

    How can it be a real issue if you have to many prospects deceloping.

    You can trade them later too.

    Short sighted draft strategy, pretending to be long sighted

  28. sliderule says:

    The oilers are doing what they had to do in a very important draft.Green will be looking over Stu’s shoulder at the draft meetings and at the draft table.
    Stu is probably a decent scout but he has been poor at assessing his scouting staff.I I have to beleive that the oilers have some good scouts and obviously some very poor ones but when you are selecting after the first round the head scout has to decide with very little information who to pick.This means he has to trust and rate the skill of each scout .The obscure picks from the BCJL and the goalie picks are the prime but not the only example of picks that are either very poor evaluation or affected by personal relations with scouts or other hockey people.
    Tambellini fired Prendergast in a hallway on a road trip.It was kind of the anti Skype firing but just as much in poor taste.The whole thing seemed to be rushed and panicky and left them very little choice but to hire Stu even though he was living in central BC..This was the oiler way with no interviews of other candidates.
    The picks that were made of Yakupov,Musil,Simpson and Hamilton may have been influenced by other people in management but the head scout should have been able to command more respect and voice his objection if he had any to these picks.
    There has been some argument that it’s mostly luck.If that is the case then just fire all the scouts and put the names on a board and throw darts for your picks.There is luck but it can be overcome by intelligent evaluation and hard work.There is luck in card games but the smartest players over time win most of the money..
    The oilers are not the worst at drafting under Stu as teams like Canucks and Penguins have been really bad.The oilers over Stu’s time have been in the bottom third and as a result now have only one drafted player on the roster who was not picked in first round.
    It’s time for the true oil change in scouting to happen.

  29. PunjabiOil says:

    Buffalo is some kind of bad. Routinely lose by 3+ goals, outshot by +15 goals.

    I don’t think it’s possible to finish worse than them.

  30. Rondo says:

    If Oiler hockey was based on results they would all be fired.

  31. godot10 says:

    The two Laurie Partridge’s:

    1) Susan Dey
    2) Emma Stone (in the attempted reboot).

  32. supernova says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    two posts about scouting.

    one from alan hull:

    http://www.coppernblue.com/2015/1/8/7516691/evaluating-the-amateur-scouting-department

    one from myself:

    http://www.theoilersrig.com/2015/01/auditing-a-scouting-department/

    Lowetide,

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I have a great affinity to discussing Scouting, development and success of these items.

    I want to clearly state that the role of the scout is very difficult in my mind.

    They are projecting 17 year old boys and how they will fare as Men in a completely different league.

    That being said they are paid and paid to watch hockey.

    1) I agree that Bob Brown needs to be sent to pasture. Whatever gem he previously found seems to have long passed. Maybe he argued long and hard for a player that was successful on another team and the GM sees him as some sort of Guru but please end it.

    2) Pro-scouting needs way more work than the amateur side but both need work.

    3) oilers need depth so we can stop expecting a higher turn out rate then possible. It oilers were simply looking for players 1 to 3 years from the draft, our success rate would be different.

    We need veterans to encompass at least 10 FWDs spots and veterans to fill out 6 D.

    Good grief relying on 20, 21, 22 years old for key roles is retarded and should be the “exception” not the norm.

    4) have a plan and stick to it for amateurs. Don’t be swayed by your own scouts or by redline or Bob Mckenzie, use them as a resource but stick to your guns.

    Stop shifting every dam year.

  33. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: I think the thing is we’ll never completely know how much rope they had or how much tinkering happened at the draft table and by whom.

    The one big question I have on Stu is that damn interview right after 2014 draft where he says:

    “actually, I had to fight with him [MacT] to draft the goaltenders.”

    https://twitter.com/RomulusNotNuma/status/482950260973895680

    I can’t get that out of my head. He needs to own that, which is different from saying he has to be fired for it.

    That entire back half of the 2014 draft is awful. Video evidence on Bouchard doesn’t erase Coughlin and Vesel being (from here) ghastly selections. GOOD players weren’t drafted!!!

    http://lowetide.ca/2014/07/07/crazy-210/

  34. Lowetide says:

    supernova: Lowetide,

    Zangetsu,

    The only Plausible reason I can see is that they were concerned about to many prospects developing at the same time and wanted college kids they held the rights to longer.

    This is completely idiotic to me.

    Trade all the late draft picks then for a higher selection – problem solved

    How can it be a real issue if you have to many prospects deceloping.

    You can trade them later too.

    Short sighted draft strategy, pretending to be long sighted

    Great point. I remember them saying at the time they wanted to have some leeway for signing.

  35. Woodguy says:

    spoiler:
    WG and Rom…

    Here’s a link to NBC’s summary of the story requested in the last thread; the one about Renney clarifying his remarks, stating that he did not say the kids were forced back from injury.

    The original story from The Journal has disappeared into the miasma that is their site.But IIRC Matty wrote it.

    Sorry, been busy this afternoon.

    Has the original author responded? Its still up (I linked to it earlier)

    Renney’s retraction is pretty meh and sounds like trying to back peddle into a grey zone.

    The original article was pretty specific.

  36. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    I don’t know if you fire the scout, can’t comment because maybe he’s the guy who discovered Joey Laleggia (wholooks like a good pick). I think staying away from the BCJHL for the rest of the decade is good advice though.

    You don’t have to stay away from the BCHL, you just have to pay attention.

    20 year olds who can’t score 1pt/gm No!

    18 year old 6’2 190 lbs forwards scoring 0.80 goals per game? Si!

  37. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk:
    How bad is Buffalo?

    Carolina looks like an allstar team against them tonight.

    Shots are 28 to 11 for Carolina
    4-1 Carolina in the third.

    CAR is 19th in SAF.

    Khudobin has a history of being a good goalie.

    They are finally healthy.

    Anyone picking them for the bottom 2 isn’t paying attention.

  38. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: That entire back half of the 2014 draft is awful. Video evidence on Bouchard doesn’t erase Coughlin and Vesel being (from here) ghastly selections. GOOD players weren’t drafted!!!

    http://lowetide.ca/2014/07/07/crazy-210/

    The big difference is we can say to ourselves (and we have some evidence via Stu on this) that management lobbied for players on a NCAA timeline for a variety of reasons.

    Doesn’t absolve the scouts, but it does contextualize them as management pushes.

    With the goalies, especially Bouchard, we’ve got Stu saying he had to fight with his GM to take a player. There’s no ambiguity here about, “well, maybe the brass wanted size!” or whathaveyou.

    This is all on the scouts.

  39. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy: Has the original author responded?Its still up (I linked to it earlier)

    Renney’s retraction is pretty meh and sounds like trying to back peddle into a grey zone.

    The original article was pretty specific.

    The difference is completely immaterial.

    In one instance, Renney was fired for not playing injured players enough.

    In the other, the Oilers and Renney had an ongoing dispute about playing injured players.

    Either way, the idea is the same: the oilers are committed, deeply it would seem, to playing injured players.

  40. Woodguy says:

    spoiler:
    Matt O’Connor Hockey Card:
    …………………………………..

    Goalie

    Born: Feb 14 1992 — Toronto, ONT (22 yrs. old]

    Height: 6′ 05″ — Weight: 201 lbs

    …………………………………………………………………..
    2012-13 Boston University H-East 2.86 8-8-2 0.910

    2013-14 Boston University H-East 2.89 7-9-4 0.920

    2014-15 Boston University H-East 1.76 10-2-2 0.939
    …………………………………………………………………..

    He’s a 23yo aged goalie in his third year of NCAA…

    I can’t figure out if that is a good thing or a bad thing. He’s old for the league.But also he’s a goalie and the older they are, the better we should know what they are.Right?Less witchcraft?

    Jesus, he’s a tall bugger.

    I’m becoming convinced that as soon as a goalie is above average in the AHL you put him in the NHL regardless of age.

    This: http://hockey-graphs.com/2014/03/21/how-well-do-goalies-age-a-look-at-a-goalie-aging-curve/

    among other things is convincing me.

  41. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: The difference is completely immaterial.

    In one instance, Renney was fired for not playing injured players enough.

    In the other, the Oilers and Renney had an ongoing dispute about playing injured players.

    Either way, the idea is the same: the oilers are committed, deeply it would seem, to playing injured players.

    Yeah, the first version might have a PA lawsuit against the Oilers the other is just grey.

    Easy to see why he’d come off the remarks.

    I’m sure his phone exploded after that was printed.

    I’d like to get the original author’s opinion of the matter.

  42. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: That entire back half of the 2014 draft is awful. Video evidence on Bouchard doesn’t erase Coughlin and Vesel being (from here) ghastly selections. GOOD players weren’t drafted!!!

    http://lowetide.ca/2014/07/07/crazy-210/

    I recall writing on this site about the fact that Mayo and Kulda, as two examples, had fallen. Granted, there were probably other, better selections to be made, but for heaven’s sake those two were better picks than Coughlin and Bouchard.

    As has been noted, when you look at the 2013 draft and the fact that this organization had the chutzpah to take Chase in the 7th round, and by all accounts appear to be pleased with that decision, why on earth would you reverse strategy when a virtually identical situation is staring you in the eyes the following season?

    Now, if MacGregor is removed following the 2015 draft, perhaps we should be grateful that a decision was made at all, rather than in previous situations where Head Scouts had the run of the place for ages based on past performance with little or no accountability for repeated failures.

    It isn’t that I equate MacGregor with Fraser or Prendergast, I think he did some good work, but I’d rather an organization make the call early than too late.

    Say, I don’t suppose we could convince both Babcock and Andersson to come over from Detroit, could we?

    Offer Andersson the position of Supremo Presidente El Prospectes and Fishing.

    Yeah, I don’t really know Spanish.

  43. RexLibris says:

    St. Louis 7

    SJS 2

    Throw another shovel load of coal on the “McLellan to the Leafs” rumour furnace tonight.

  44. Ca$h-Money! says:

    I’m OK with the BCHL, as long as it’s no earlier than round 6 and we are picking a guy who is a real standout in the league, and isn’t an over ager. 5th round if he’s in the 2ppg range or better. Even then, it’s a lottery ticket, nothing more.

    For fun I looked up the guy that would have been a smart pick from the Vernon Vipers, Dexter Dancs (kick ass name). I believe you were advocating hard for him LT, and I was certainly on board.

    He’s 16gp 1-2-3 20 pims -7 with Michigan this year. No idea the time on ice or anything like that, but not exactly mind blowing numbers. This is a guy that was leaps and bounds ahead of Coughlin on the same team. In fact, his numbers in his actual draft year are better than what Coughlin is putting up as an old timer in a league for high schoolers.

    I’ve seen picks that defy logic, but damn that pick (and Bouchard) just blow my freakin’ mind.

  45. Ca$h-Money! says:

    Also, can someone please explain to me what happened to Vladimir Tkachev this year? He’s putting up the same PPG in junior as he put up in NHL pre season… is he even draft worthy anymore, even with a late pick?

  46. Surly says:

    Ca$h-Money!:
    Also, can someone please explain to me what happened to Vladimir Tkachev this year? He’s putting up the same PPG in junior as he put up in NHL pre season…is he even draft worthy anymore, even with a late pick?

    He attended Oiler camp. That might explain any regression. If he separate’s his shoulder we’ll know for sure.

  47. VOR says:

    I have to disagree about one of the players who has been dismissed here as an example of the wonky lower end of the Oilers draft in 2014. I suspect the Oilers scored another Tobias Rieder when they took Tyler Vesel at 153. It seems obvious he was a miss by Central Scouting not the Oilers. He played extremely well (and that is understating the case) in leagues we don’t really know how to project and that lead to Vesel going unranked by Central Scouting. He was arguably one of the top players in the USHL and undisputedly brilliant at both ends of the ice last year. But before that he dominated US High School Hockey.

    He is now playing for UNO and they are a very good team anchored by four young men who really should still be bench warming (Vesel, Ortega, Guentzel, and Randolph). In University we can see the player the Oilers hoped they were drafting. Vesel is 4th in team scoring in his rookie year, fast to blazing fast, and works his butt off at both ends of the ice. He is not playing much on special teams and not getting the toughs, but outplaying by a very long ways. He can play all three forward positions and thinks the game well. Smaller player who out competes older, bigger college players every night. He is a wizard at blocking pucks and has been at every level. Not a heavy hitter or somebody who goes looking for trouble but not somebody who gets pushed off the puck either. Absolutely amazing ability to steal the puck.

    The thing is none of the complementary things I just said about Vesel the college player is a surprise. He was a promising player in high school midget hockey (2 pts per game) and by the time he was a senior he dominated US High School Hockey at Shattuck St. Mary’s and he and Jake Randolph led St. Mary’s to a national championship in Vesel’s junior year and St. Mary’s lost in the semi-finals in his senior year when he was the team leader. Then he dominated the USHL +40, 71 points in 49 games. Now he is an outstanding rookie in college. Mad talent and incredible work ethic. As I said a miss by Central Scouting not by the Oilers.

    This is exactly the sort of pick the Detroit Red Wings have built a dynasty around. Yet according to everyone here he is shit. I am truly not sure what any of you are basing that on. Please feel free to explain to me why he wasn’t worth spending a 153rd OV pick on?

  48. supernova says:

    Woodguy: I’m becoming convinced that as soon as a goalie is above average in the AHL you put him in the NHL regardless of age.

    This: http://hockey-graphs.com/2014/03/21/how-well-do-goalies-age-a-look-at-a-goalie-aging-curve/

    among other things is convincing me.

    How does Devyn Dubnyk fit into this equation ?

    Slightly above average SP% – then ran out of the league by multiple teams Save % – then above average

    Can’t figure out Goalies for the life of me,

    Only thing I know is the Goalie that can’t stop the shot that breaks the teams drive needs to get punted.

    Every goalie has these but the ones that continually do this need to be turfed.

  49. VOR says:

    Vesel is also UNO’s 2C and is at 49.7% with well over 300 faceoffs taken as a rookie. In other words the kid has many positive arrows. He had many positive arrows at the time of the draft. I think we should be applauding this as the Oilers ignoring Coke machines and Lucic-lite players and taking a kid with talent, speed, and heart. Maybe he is nothing but he was worth the risk.

  50. misfit says:

    Looks like someone in the Oilers organization read LT’s “go get another CuJo” entry.

    In all seriousness, I love that they’re showing interest in O’Connor. He’s a hell of a prospect IMO, and would really help out the depth at the position. I’d like LB to have the full year next season as the starter in OKC simply because of the playing time he’d get as Scrivens’ backup, but a shot to be the AHL starter and first callup could be very appealing to someone like O’Connor.

  51. Hammers says:

    Nobody knows if Green will fire anyone right now but I always thought the pro scouts were way more of a problem than the junior scouts . The problem with the under 20 age group is you can be both rolling the dice and as LT keeps saying it takes 5 years to find out there real value with the internal coaching playing a large part on the individual players . Pro scouts on the other hand begat so many mistakes from Belanger to Fraser and to long a list to waste time on . 1 question though were players like Tuebert playing in the AHL pro picks as I’m guessing they are as they had contracts . Anyone have an answer ?

  52. frjohnk says:

    VOR:
    Vesel is also UNO’s 2C and is at 49.7% with well over 300 faceoffs taken as a rookie. In other words the kid has many positive arrows. He had many positive arrows at the time of the draft. I think we should be applauding this as the Oilers ignoring Coke machines and Lucic-lite players and taking a kid with talent, speed, and heart. Maybe he is nothing but he was worth the risk.

    The “problem” with this pick is that he was 20 years old. An overager.

    I have read where the USHL is basically NA’s fourth junior league. Basically between OHL,WHL and a junior A league in Canada.

    The equivalency between the USHL and one of the 3 junior leagues in the CHL is right around 80%.

    So if we look at Vesel’s numbers from last year in the USHL
    49 33 38 71

    Would look something like
    49 games 26 goals 30 assists 56 points in any of the CHL leagues.

    This suggests long shot for an overager.

    Oilers signed two players to minor league deals who are similar, Holmberg and Winquist.

    http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=26392

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=123040

    Most of these guys never make it.

  53. dangilitis says:

    Just read your post on Lander and wanted to throw out a belief of mine: St Louis did more to ruin Paajarvi’s career than Edmonton.

    This is the situated learning theory that is applicable to many apprenticeships (http://www.learning-theories.com/situated-learning-theory-lave.html).

    It is centered around the concept of legitimate peripheral participation, where learners gradually get shown the ropes, then are expected to
    1) tackle increasing responsibilities in their role within a given community. This is the theoretical basis for “Detroit gets it,” “let Lander/Yakupov gradually tackle more time so he can succeed,” and “why the hell did St Louis play MPS for 65 NHL games over 1.5 seasons at 5 mins a night with no AHL time?”

    But situated learning also incorporates the importance of authenticity of context:
    2) situations and settings that require the appropriate knowledge and skill needed to succeed
    3) and more importantly, social interaction and collaboration. Involvement in a “‘community of practice’ that embodies certain beliefs and behaviours to be acquired.”

    Part 2 to me is the tricky part. Its the part that suggests that Draisaitl may improve to 2 ppg in the WHL, or Hunt may win the Eddie Shore Award for the next 5 years, but neither will be forced to work on their weaknesses in the NHL, where we want and hope for them to play. Its the faction that states that Nurse will fall into bad habits playing against far weaker players in the OHL. Yes, they are all playing hockey, but if you really believed the AHL was the best place to develop, then Jason Williams is a bona fide NHL player, whether he was 21 or 35.

    Part 3 is the luxury afforded to winning teams, and the curse that befalls shitty teams. Its the reason, presumably, why Ference was brought in (although I would argue he is one voice and lacks the knowledge and skill to teach anything other than hard work).

    But all 3 parts have to be considered. And this is how I’d interpret a few examples (feel free to disagree):
    -Draisaitl: If on DET, all 3 parts would favor his development as a 3rd-4th line C (NOT winger) on the big club, with gradually increased time and responsibility as was earned. You would tell naysayers to shut the fuck up, he will develop at his own pace, and know that being around Datsyuk’s influence as well as the supreme coaching and ability to work on NHL skills in the NHL, with better centers to shelter him, are all the right choice. On EDM: Only part 2 was favouring him playing in the NHL, as the responsibiity was too much and culture not right
    – Lander: On EDM: see Draisaitl. Only now, I would expect part 1, increasing responsibility, as appropriate, and part 2 to be a favorable reason to stop putzing around in the AHL. Part 3 has still been missing for his NHL career, and I would argue even in OKC he hasn’t had a lot of role models who can prove that their recipe is successful in the NHL.
    – Paajarvi: On EDM: see Draisaitl. He did have some role models in Horc to be exposed to, not enough, culture shit. On STL: They didn’t follow through with part 1 (inc responsibility), and have now cast him as a player who can’t make it, when he was never given the increased responsibility.
    – Gagner: On EDM: Mature enough to have had reasonable role models, but culture caught up with him. responsibility was appropriate eventually, and authentic experience in his early years was good exposure in a lot of ways. On PHX: not escaping the culture of losing, terrible landing spot for him, I feel sorry…

  54. Lowetide says:

    VOR:
    I have to disagree about one of the players who has been dismissed here as an example of the wonky lower end of the Oilers draft in 2014. I suspect the Oilers scored another Tobias Rieder when they took Tyler Vesel at 153. It seems obvious he was a miss by Central Scouting not the Oilers. He played extremely well (and that is understating the case) in leagues we don’t really know how to project and that lead to Vesel going unranked by Central Scouting. He was arguably one of the top players in the USHL and undisputedly brilliant at both ends of the ice last year. But before that he dominated US High School Hockey.

    He is now playing for UNO and they are a very good team anchored by four young men who really should still be bench warming (Vesel, Ortega, Guentzel, and Randolph). In University we can see the player the Oilers hoped they were drafting. Vesel is 4th in team scoring in his rookie year, fast to blazing fast, and works his butt off at both ends of the ice. He is not playing much on special teams and not getting the toughs, but outplaying by a very long ways. He can play all three forward positions and thinks the game well. Smaller player who out competes older, bigger college players every night. He is a wizard at blocking pucks and has been at every level. Not a heavy hitter or somebody who goes looking for trouble but not somebody who gets pushed off the puck either. Absolutely amazing ability to steal the puck.

    The thing is none of the complementary things I just said about Vesel the college player is a surprise. He was a promising player in high school midget hockey (2 pts per game) and by the time he was a senior he dominated US High School Hockey at Shattuck St. Mary’s and he and Jake Randolph led St. Mary’s to a national championship in Vesel’s junior year and St. Mary’s lost in the semi-finals in his senior year when he was the team leader. Then he dominated the USHL +40, 71 points in 49 games. Now he is an outstanding rookie in college. Mad talent and incredible work ethic. As I said a miss by Central Scouting not by the Oilers.

    This is exactly the sort of pick the Detroit Red Wings have built a dynasty around. Yet according to everyone here he is shit. I am truly not sure what any of you are basing that on. Please feel free to explain to me why he wasn’t worth spending a 153rd OV pick on?

    Vesel is the most promising in the group but remains a long shot. I hope he turns out but it’s a long long way.

  55. raventalon40 says:

    I just realized there’s a remote possibility, however remote, that next year the Oilers hire Carlyle and the Leafs hire Eakins.

    Or maybe the Leafs poaching stops with the departure of Eakins from the organization.

    Which leads to the next thought: what happens to the guys like Keith Aulie next year? I thought he improved as player this year, but is it enough to warrant a top 7 slot on the roster? Does it even warrant a top 50 spot on the reserve list? I’m not advocating we keep or get rid of Keith Aulie but I am just wondering out loud at either possibility and want to hear your opinions.

  56. VOR says:

    Lowetide, my problem is Vesel is exactly the sort of player you should be taking late. He comes from a league where there is raging debate on how good the league is or isn’t and that may have lead to this player being marked down. He was a dominant force in that league. He is a bit small but has NHL skating. He can pay his way either with his offence or defence. He Is solid in the face off circle. He works his butt off. He has outplayed all opposition he has ever faced. In other words I agree completely that he is a long, long shot but he is the right kind of long shot. He has displayed talent at every level he’s played. At this point in the draft age is not a great predictor. Statistically it is a good point to take fliers on players you don’t expect to see at training camp until they are 23 or 24. Which is exactly what the Oilers did with Vesel. Draft and watch.

  57. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    The most passive aggressive, weird thing.

    Late at night. strange business

    Jim Matheson ‏@NHLbyMatty 11m11 minutes ago
    Mike Sillinger is living in Regina and no longer working for Edmonton Oilers, if anybody’s wondering.#oilers.

  58. TheOtherJohn says:

    Hammers,

    How the bleep are the pro scouts more of a problem than the amateur scouts notwithstanding NOBODY outside of the 1st round scored squats free being drafted by the Oilers in the NHL.

  59. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    The most passive aggressive, weird thing.

    Late at night. strange business

    Jim Matheson ‏@NHLbyMatty11m11 minutes ago
    Mike Sillinger is living in Regina and no longer working for Edmonton Oilers, if anybody’s wondering.#oilers.

    Old story. He left months ago

    http://www.leaderpost.com/sports/Sillinger+joins+Pats+hockey+consultant/10254777/story.html

  60. TheOtherJohn says:

    Vor

    You have some interesting comments but your man looks very much like a long shot.

    Would not want to highlight Oiers 13/14 drafts on my CV applying for jobs. Not very impressive

  61. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: Old story. He left months ago

    http://www.leaderpost.com/sports/Sillinger+joins+Pats+hockey+consultant/10254777/story.html

    Funny that he’s still up on the Oilers’ webpage:

    http://oilers.nhl.com/club/page.htm?id=33068

    At any rate, I was never under the impression that Sillinger held a key post. The interesting thing about tonight is the phrasing of Matty’s tweet.

    I can read it like this: Sillinger broke free. lucky guy

    Or, like this: who the hell cares, the guy is irrelevant.

  62. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Funny that he’s still up on the Oilers’ webpage:

    http://oilers.nhl.com/club/page.htm?id=33068

    At any rate, I was never under the impression that Sillinger held a key post. The interesting thing about tonight is the phrasing of Matty’s tweet.

    I can read it like this: Sillinger broke free. lucky guy

    Or, like this: who the hell cares, the guy is irrelevant.

    There are a few mistakes on the site. Mike Abbamont has been scouting for Ottawa all year.

  63. TheOtherJohn says:

    Sillinger long gone. Oilers still making in house hires/promotions with no regard to marketplace. May be Ok if you are elite organization. No one. Anywhere. Would use that appellation for the Oilers.

    There is nothing wrong with an open competition for a job. Oilers certainly shy away from testing the marketplace. N/w/s 30/30/29/24/28 and DFL again this year. You’d almost think they don’t want to hire smart people: rinse, repeat, failure

  64. RexLibris says:

    Ryan Pike offers some information on a potential AHL Western conference.

    http://flamesnation.ca/2015/1/8/making-sense-of-the-ahl-west-reports

    Interesting. Should be some more information on this after the AHL Board of Governors meeting Jan. 25th.

  65. RexLibris says:

    Oilers have a three-point cushion between them and Carolina. Four points to Buffalo, nine to Arizona and ten to New Jersey.

    Using my Oilers-calculator I think that affords them two wins over the next six games in order to remain comfortably close to the draft podium.

  66. kinger_OIL says:

    RexLibris:
    Ryan Pike offers some information on a potential AHL Western conference.

    http://flamesnation.ca/2015/1/8/making-sense-of-the-ahl-west-reports

    Interesting. Should be some more information on this after the AHL Board of Governors meeting Jan. 25th.

    Does the article say that the Oilers would move to the AHL Western Conference?

  67. frjohnk says:

    RexLibris:
    Oilers have a three-point cushion between them and Carolina. Four points to Buffalo, nine to Arizona and ten to New Jersey.

    Using my Oilers-calculator I think that affords them two wins over the next six games in order to remain comfortably close to the draft podium.

    Bottom 10 teams

    21  Colorado 42
    22  Minnesota 41
    23  Ottawa 40
    24  Columbus 39
    25  Philadelphia 39
    26  New Jersey 37
    27  Arizona 36
    28  Buffalo 31
    29  Carolina 30
    30  Edmonton 27

    We pass Buffalo, maybe Arizona if they blow it up and get rid of UFA’s and Yandle.

    Ward is playing very good for Carolina, but E Staal suffered a head injury last night. Not sure how bad.

    3 teams at the bottom
    28 Arizona
    29 Edmonton
    30 Buffalo

    Rest of the teams are too far ahead to catch.

  68. Ben says:

    RexLibris:
    Oilers have a three-point cushion between them and Carolina. Four points to Buffalo, nine to Arizona and ten to New Jersey.

    Using my Oilers-calculator I think that affords them two wins over the next six games in order to remain comfortably close to the draft podium.

    Not so sure. Buffalo’s really gonna bring it down the stretch here. Oil really going to have to man up and bring their Z-game if they’re going to overcome the heat from Nolan’s gang.

    If I’m MacT, I pony up whatever I have to to get Cam Barker, Patrick O’Sullivan and Eric Belanger back here for the stretch drive. Whatever. It. Takes.

  69. russ99 says:

    Re: Last year’s bottom of the draft:

    If any of those Oil Kings people wanted us to draft because they were Oil Kings play 50 games in the NHL then you can say Stu and the scouts were wrong.

    But at this point there’s a close to zero chance of that happening.

    So much angst about something that affects the club so little.

    I’d much rather give them credit for finding Chase and not rip on them for some walkabout picks at the bottom of a weak draft.

    Not getting more value from the top of the second round all those years, sure, that’s cause for questioning.

  70. Pouzar says:

    We are drafting Strome or Hanifin. That’s my mentality and I think I could be right. For once.

  71. knighttown says:

    Woodguy: CAR is 19th in SAF.

    Khudobin has a history of being a good goalie.

    They are finally healthy.

    Anyone picking them for the bottom 2 isn’t paying attention.

    I agree and you can make almost the same statement about Edmonton. Decent underlying metrics 20th-25th) and goalies that will regress to their norms. Anyone picking them to beat Buffalo isn’t paying attention.

    Buffalo is Denmark and Edmonton is at least the Czechs. Yes, they’re a gong show organization and in a short series you never know but there’s no way, over 82 games, that talent gap doesn’t prove out.

  72. knighttown says:

    Pouzar:
    We are drafting Strome or Hanifin. That’s my mentality and I think I could be right. For once.

    You are right actually. It’s all math.

    The most likely outcome is that Buffalo finishes last. Micah Blake McCurdys models have that happening and the likelihood increasing every day. If underlying stats were standings points it would be Buffalo at 38 and the other shitty teams at 45 and the Oilers and the next level and 48 or 49. It’s a big gap.

    On lottery day there’s a 77% chance someone not in last or second jumps up and gets McDavid. That’s good odds…take the field in that bet. So say McDavid goes to NJ or Philly even ignoring conspiracy theories.

    Buffalo is then given Eichel.

    Edmonton, who is a great bet to finish 29th, takes Hanifan.

  73. godot10 says:

    Pouzar:
    We are drafting Strome or Hanifin. That’s my mentality and I think I could be right. For once.

    We are trading Hanifin for Couturier. That is my mentality.

  74. dangilitis says:

    Isn’t Strome like Gagner? Skilled player playing with elite talent (McDavid/Kane). Haven’t even watched him play but would gather the Oilers take Hanifin over Strome because of history.

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