PUSHING THE RIVER

This has been a difficult season for Taylor Hall, as the de facto ‘man who pushes the river’ is not as productive in his wheelhouse (5×5) this year. The drop in production is so drastic we have to go back to Hall’s rookie season to find a comparable:

HALL MONITOR (BTN, HOCKEY ANALYSIS)

HALL NUMBERS

It’s a significant drop-off in production and really should be the No. 1 concern for the Edmonton Oilers. Their best offensive player, their chance machine, isn’t delivering at previous levels. He isn’t 40 (Hall just turned 23) and he should be posting better numbers this season. There are reasons for the downturn:

  1. In early November, Hall suffered a sprained medial collateral ligament in his right knee. Source
  2. I believe he is now wearing braces on both knees.
  3. The opposition SP is very good when he’s on the ice currently.
  4. Hall’s shooting percentage is slightly below average
  5. 10% of his EV ice time this year was spent with Tyler Pitlick as his RW.
  6. By eye, he and his line seem to be dumping the puck in a significant amount this year.

These are all things that have contributed to Hall’s (significant) downturn in fortunes. A major portion of Edmonton’s even-strength offense comes from Taylor Hall off the rush. Todd Nelson needs to examine those things he can control above and tweak (the Nuge—Hall—Eberle line back in business implies he’s working on it).

HALL INJURED ON THE PLAY….

hall injuredWhen we talk about injury, we acknowledge it, hold it in our mind’s eye for a minute, and forget it. Taylor Hall’s injuries have a cumulative impact on him, but we treat them (we just do) as unrelated irritants that rob us of enjoyment. Hall came back (likely too early) from his knee injury and doesn’t seem to have that extra gear. That’s from observation but it’s also true he lost the skating portion of the Oilers’ skill competition to Leon Draisaitl. Anecdotal evidence to be sure but significant all the same.

HALL’S INJURY HISTORY

  1. March 5, 2011—suffers ankle injury and misses the remainder of the season.
  2. November 2011—left shoulder injury, misses 7 games.
  3. January 2012—head injury, misses two games.
  4. March 18, 2012—concussion, misses the remainder of the season.
  5. March 2013—hamstring injury, misses one game.
  6. November 2013—left knee injury, misses 7 games.
  7. November 3, 2014—sprained mcl (right knee), misses 6 games.

HALL VERSUS THE VOLCANO

hall gf holy

The Oilers with Taylor Hall remain wildly better than without but in a season where all is lost already I’m wondering about the wisdom of playing him if he’s not 100%. There is absolutely nothing so valuable January-April that the Edmonton Oilers should spend one second worrying over. If Hall came back too soon, rest him.

If he’s 100% and posting these numbers? It could be a slump and that’s a fact. It could be a combination of the reasons mentioned above. It could also be something more sinister, a gifted athlete wearing down from the day-to-day grind of the NHL.

For all our sakes, I pray this isn’t the case.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

kidman paperboyToday on the Lowdown (TSN 1260, 10am):

  • Dennis King, Oilogosphere icon. Oilers, Leafs and MLB HOF.
  • Jesse Spector, The Sporting News. Baseball!
  • Ryan Batty, Copper and Blue. Oilers and what they can accomplish with the rest of the season.
  • Jeff Krushell, Krush performance. MLB hall and the importance of sleep.

10-1260 text and @Lowetide_ on twitter. Talk soon!

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

104 Responses to "PUSHING THE RIVER"

  1. zatch says:

    Looks like the western teams are serious about creating an AHL west division. Something I’ve always wondered about this: MLB has a pretty damn excellent minor league structure. They have two AAA leagues. I never understood why the AHL had to be continental. I assume part of it is the evolution of the minor leagues and how they competed. I’d split the AHL straight up into 2 leagues to save travel as much as possible.

  2. PunjabiOil says:

    He came back too early from his injury, and his production suffered.

    Sometimes the simplest explanation is the most logical.

  3. Lowetide says:

    PunjabiOil:
    He came back too early from his injury, and his production suffered.

    Sometimes the simplest explanation is the most logical.

    Yep. I think the Oilers should find a spot here in the schedule (maybe around the All-Star game) and give him a week.

  4. HugThePost says:

    Kind of ironic how the client of the Original #4 might be hobbled by bad knees.

    If he is not 100%, they should shut him down for the season. I hope his summer allows him to come back rejuvenated, both physically and mentally. 5 years of this losing probably hasn’t been easy on a guy like Hall.

    Plus, this year did nothing for his trade value, if some of us are still following that narrative.

  5. PunjabiOil says:

    His numbers pre and post injury highlight some differences.

    Wonder if the SOG difference could be a result of structural powerplay differences?

  6. Snowman says:

    My opinion is its probably a combination of injury and slump. He’s been on the rollercoaster longest and I imagine this season would have been pretty draining for a guy who’s seen this movie before. I’d like to qualify the rest of this post by saying I love Hall and I don’t think this is the case but…

    The question is, if it is more sinister, if he has lost a gear due to injury and wear and tear, will it get worse and if it is going to get worse what do you do?

    If Taylor Hall has peaked, If its all downhill from here (I doubt it and Gord forbid such a special athlete suffer this fate) do you consider moving him? What if he is 100%? What if this is who he is now?

  7. lance says:

    It’s fine. In a few months there will be a new draft pick and whole new sweaters to sell. Yay for league sanctioned cheating!

    Did you heard about the new barn?

    ***
    Always late here, I loved the sky reach statue line. I think that post belongs in your top ten.

  8. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    The same mgt group that harassed Souray back from injury (tried to anyway), and hustled Gagner back and Hall that time and that other time and everyone else is not going to like the idea of sitting a guy.

    Playing with injuries = tough stuff hockey. playoff hockey. learning how to win.

  9. su_dhillon says:

    Looking to the off season for the Oilers, I wonder that if Mactavish comes back, one of the moves that Nicholson could make would be to fire Howson and hire an assistant GM from outside that would provide a different view and quite frankly someone that could take over for Mactavish if he were to be let go. Not unlike the Dubas hire in Toronto. At this point my preference would be for that whole management team to be moved out but I think Mactavish survives.

    Lets say they were to buy out Nikitin this summer, I would think that hire would fall on Howson and honestly it’s bad enough to be a fireable offense in my eyes. If you believe there is too much group think with the current regime then replacing Howson with a non former Oiler helps change that and puts some fire to the feet of Mactavish. Thoughts?

  10. Dee Dee says:

    In the Seguin vs Hall debates before they were drafted one of Halls negatives mentioned was that his aggressive physical playing style would lead to a lot of injuries and a shortened playing career.

    So no surprises there.

    Past few years he carried the line, nice to see RNH and Ebs pulling up their socks and helping out more this year.

    But seriously, rest the guy a bit and let him get back to 100%.

  11. blainer says:

    Snowman:
    My opinion is its probably a combination of injury and slump. He’s been on the rollercoaster longest and I imagine this season would have been pretty draining for a guy who’s seen this movie before. I’d like to qualify the rest of this post by saying I love Hall and I don’t think this is the case but…

    The question is, if it is more sinister, if he has lost a gear due to injury and wear and tear, will it get worse and if it is going to get worse what do you do?

    If Taylor Hall has peaked, If its all downhill from here (I doubt it and Gord forbid such a special athlete suffer this fate) do you consider moving him? What if he is 100%? What if this is who he is now?

    Agreed that it is a combo of injury and slump.. I also think that all of the core plus Yak regressed with Eakins and expect Hall and Company will bounce back with a new coach as well as an improved PP. When we were competing in the lockout season Ralph had the PP in the top 10 and better at times.. Better times ahead..

  12. rickithebear says:

    Hall:

    Pre injury:Oct 9 To Nov 1
    11gm 6G 4A +4
    .91 PPG
    19:08 TOI 25 shifts
    46 sec Shift

    Post Injury:
    Eakins: nov 16 to Dec 14
    14 GM 2G 5A -10
    .50 PPG
    20:46 TOI 27 Shifts
    46 sec shift

    MacT/Nelson Dec 16 to Dec 27
    5 GM 2G 1A -1
    .6PPG
    19:54 TOI 27 shifts
    44 sec Shift

    Nelson Dec 30 to Jan 6
    5 GM 0G 4A +2
    .80 PPG
    19:23 TOI 24.4 shifts
    47 sec shift

  13. rich says:

    When Hall was injured, they said he’d be out 2-4 weeks and he came back in 15 days. The cumulative effective of coming back a bit early could very well be the simplest and most logical answer and giving Hall time – whether at the All-Star break or later in the year might be the answer. If there are still some structural issues you need to get them fixed with an eye to next season – particularly since this year is a lost cause.

    I think what can complicate the issue with this are 2 things. First, you have someone in Nelson who is coaching for his job – whether he’s coaching for the Edmonton job or a job in another organization, he’s coaching for his job and is going to want to build his resume. Deliberately tanking will not help. Will he get consideration if your best player is out, hard to say given the “forensic audit” taking place.

    And the forensic audit that’s taking place complicates this (potentially) as well for hockey ops. Beyond the scouting staff that’s been thrown under the bus, will changes reach any higher if they continue to tank? Do they need Hall playing to save their jobs because the team needs to suck but look better sucking and that happens with Hall in the lineup?

  14. Truth says:

    Why is Taylor Hall the left handed trigger man on the first PP while Teddy “Butter” Purcell stands in front of the net? By eye, he used to score a lot of goals being the low winger taking the odd wrist shot and crashing the net for loose pucks, now he takes one-timers over and over. I can recall Hall scoring only one goal with a slap shot, What gives? If the PP was working, fine, but come on… I know it was probably the coach just instilling some confidence in a young player than anything, but didn’t Krueger repeatedly say Yakupov has one of the best one-time shots he’d seen? He’s a left shot.

    The Oilers are undoubtedly the worst team in the league for playing their stars injured when there is absolutely no good reason for it. For all we know he could be playing with a bummed knee and shoulder only to go into surgery early April for a next November return.

    Hall played his rookie season and the 11-12 season with a bummed shoulder, one that was aggravated enough in the 11-12 season that they decided to go for off-season surgery to repair it. The season was over early (of course), why wouldn’t they have put him into surgery the day it was decided surgery was needed to get him in prime shape to have a shot the next season?

    RNH went through the exact same thing with the Oilers in 12-13, clearly injured from previous years and re-aggravated the injury early in the year only to play out the entire year and go into off-season surgery. Get the surgery done and they can start preparing for the next season. They haven’t had a season that mattered in 8 years, why start a fresh season with a star player already trying to play catch-up?

  15. johnnyshaka says:

    http://globalnews.ca/news/1762394/draisaitl-makes-impressive-debut-with-kelowna-rockets/

    Newly acquired Leon Draisaitl had a goal and an assist in his Rockets debut and was named the game’s first star in the win, just two days after arriving in Kelowna from the Edmonton Oilers.

    Music to my ears.

  16. Showerhead says:

    A rare but out-and-out rant from me:

    Ricki’s splits above paint a very clear picture. Combine that with everything we know about injuries, both intuitively and from watching Oilers play poorly post-injury over the years, and it is a pretty damning indictment of Edmonton decision making.

    Then, when you add that IT’S A FREAKING MCL to the picture, it gets worse. There are a lot of posts suggesting to rest him for a week or two to get him full healed. This is not how the human body works! The best play was to rest him for that extra week or two during his original recovery period. So what if Taylor Hall loses a step for a month but rushing back adds the possibility of PERMANENCE to the equation which is absolutely absurd to me. If it’s management, this is at LEAST as damning as the lack of centres. Centres can be added – franchise players’ knees cannot be rebuilt. If it’s the player, I respect the heart but it’s pure folly. If it’s the coaching, then I’m so glad Eakins was fired even though I think his player usage, zonestarts, etc was damn good.

    Whoever is to blame, it’s sheer stupidity. Roster imbalance is, at least theoretically, fixable. An unrested, strained MCL in the right knee of a franchise player is not.

  17. Clay says:

    I agree that injury is #1 on the list. Hall’s main weapon is his speed that pushes back defenders and makes room for linemates. Even if the double knee injuries take 10% off that, it’s a major item.

    I would also add that the weight of all the losing has to take its toll on his motivation as well. I know that it’s not a mathy thing to say.

    When you’re losing all the time, the bumps and bruises get to you. When you’re winning, you can break your ankle and find a way to come back and score the OT winner.

  18. frjohnk says:

    Hall put his best underlying numbers with Renney and Krueger. Some of the worst underlying numbers were under Eakins. Something else to also consider. Godot wont approve though

    P60
    20112012 2.1
    20122013 3
    20132014 2.8
    20142015 1.8

    CF%
    20112012 52.3
    20122013 50.4
    20132014 44.4
    20142015 50.6

    PDO
    20112012 100.6
    20122013 100.7
    20132014 100.7
    20142015 102.2

    Scoring chance for%
    20112012 51.4
    20122013 49.4
    20132014 45.9
    20142015 49.7

    FF%
    20112012 52.3
    20122013 50.5
    20132014 44.7
    20142015 46.2

    Scoring chance for60
    20112012 30.8
    20122013 33.8
    20132014 28.9
    20142015 24.1

    ZSO%
    20112012 56.7
    20122013 54
    20132014 56.6
    20142015 53.6

  19. Jon K says:

    Hall has noticeably lost explosiveness in his stride since the early knee injury this year. I suspect that there are many plays this year where he chooses to dump the puck in rather than try to beat the defender as a result. He also seems to have lost a bit of that signature daredevil offensive aggressiveness that previously saw him plowing into goalies, nets, and defenders. Also likely attributable to injuries.

    Then again, that was the worry on draft day…

  20. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Everyone seems to be on the same page here.

    Hall rushed back from injury. The Oilers have a track record of rushing key players back from injury. Hall doesn’t look by stat or by eye like the same player as the past couple of years.

    Correlation doesn’t equal causation but the Oilers need to see Ricki’s stats, look themselves in the mirror and figure out if they’re culpable. And if they decide they are, they need to change that aspect of what they do, once and for all.

  21. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    The same mgt group that harassed Souray back from injury (tried to anyway), and hustled Gagner back and Hall that time and that other time and everyone else is not going to like the idea of sitting a guy.

    Playing with injuries = tough stuff hockey. playoff hockey. learning how to win.

    Same management group fired Renney when he refused to over-use kids coming back from injury as well.

  22. jake70 says:

    Hall coming back too early from injury – has the player or the team even suggested this is the case? Where is this coming from? If so, maybe it was the player being stubborn? Do you think after the Souray debacle, they wouldn’t be a bit more prudent? (and that’s not saying Souray was rushed, he may have been, but the pure optics of it)

  23. Unicorns says:

    Showerhead:
    A rare but out-and-out rant from me:

    Ricki’s splits above paint a very clear picture. Combine that with everything we know about injuries, both intuitively and from watching Oilers play poorly post-injury over the years, and it is a pretty damning indictment of Edmonton decision making.

    Then, when you add that IT’S A FREAKING MCL to the picture, it gets worse. There are a lot of posts suggesting to rest him for a week or two to get him full healed. This is not how the human body works! The best play was to rest him for that extra week or two during his original recovery period. So what if Taylor Hall loses a step for a month but rushing back adds the possibility of PERMANENCE to the equation which is absolutely absurd to me. If it’s management, this is at LEAST as damning as the lack of centres. Centres can be added – franchise players’ knees cannot be rebuilt. If it’s the player, I respect the heart but it’s pure folly. If it’s the coaching, then I’m so glad Eakins was fired even though I think his player usage, zonestarts, etc was damn good.

    Whoever is to blame, it’s sheer stupidity. Roster imbalance is, at least theoretically, fixable. An unrested, strained MCL in the right knee of a franchise player is not.

    Ya but Tikkanen played with the broken off end of stick protruding out from under his rib cage in the time of Heroes.

  24. spoiler says:

    Woodguy: Same management group fired Renney when he refused to over-use kids coming back from injury as well.

    This meme was refuted by Renney himself months ago.

    We even pointed it out to you at the time and you acknowledged not having seen Renney’s clarification.

  25. knighttown says:

    Agree with all of this LT but you also have to consider his IPP last year ending up nearly 100%. For all goals scored while he was on the ice he was involved in all of them. For awhile in fact he was over 100% a near statistical impossibility…he was earning points on plays where he wasn’t on the ice. He was second to Andrew Desjardins and those two were nearly 10 points clear of anyone else. Unlike some other luck metrics, this number can vary wildly and the average for a forward this year is about 72%. Some very nice players like Spezza are around 50% this year. THe year before he was 4th in the NHL at over 94%.

    His number is still good this year at 81% which is probably realistic considering how much he drives the river.

    The point is, 2012-14’s results were likely inflated based on an other worldly IPP. He is an excellent point producer but he’s likely not top 10 in the world like it appeared he might be.

    And if you want to argue that elite players should have insanely high IPP’s, Crosby has played with drivel and dreck on his wings for years making it seem more likely that every goal would go through him. He’s been 81%, 79% and 81%.

  26. Unicorns says:

    I had a fellow come into the business recently that did his MCL, now hobbling. Asked him if he was ok, it was previous but he took 3 runs skiing over the holidays and it flared up, too soon. I’m thinking Hall looks like he needs to heal more.

  27. spoiler says:

    That’s quite the discombobulated table but there are a couple of things which leap out.

    YOY, his shot volume is only down 10% but his scoring is down 35%.

    That Is likely a powerplay issue or a shooting percentage issue.

    His 5X5 scoring and points per game are down almost the exact same amounts… that 35% YOY.

    So it isn’t the powerplay, That leaves shooting percentage, and not just Hall’s but all players on the ice with Hall. And IIRC the bulk of Hall’s points came from assists in the past.

    He’s still pushing the river across continents in his Bunyanesque way, albeit down 10%, but no one is cashing their chances when he is on the ice.

    We can probably attribute his 10% drop in shot volume to his injury (although it could be a combination of many things). I highly doubt Hall would be allowed to play if there were any chance of aggravating the injury. He was probably told he would be at 90% until the summer when he can rest and rehab properly. Hall’s call. Miss a much bigger chunk of the season to get 10% back? Rink rats don’t think like that.

    If a couple of extra days, like at the All-star break, would truly make a difference, they would have given those days to him at Xmas or at the time of the original recovery.

    But I am sure there will be much handwringing, and whinging about Souray, and trying to find molehills to make mountains out of despite math and common sense. Neurotic meme building trumps all. Because after all when we are talking about management we are talking about complete imbeciles who need help dressing and feeding themselves in the morning. Right?

  28. Hammers says:

    Probably mistaken but it seems LT has given a whole bunch of reasons that the Oilers should consider trading Taylor Hall .

  29. russ99 says:

    7. Dallas Eakins. That’s quite a exponential drop on 5×5, points and shots from the moment Eakins took over…

    Hall’s knees have to be a factor, but he along with others on the roster needs time under Nelson to get back to how they used to play before Mr. “we’re going to play this way” took over.

  30. Adam Wu says:

    Clay:
    I would also add that the weight of all the losing has to take its toll on his motivation as well.I know that it’s not a mathy thing to say.

    It is I think more than just the “weight of losing”. It is the weight of hopelessness. Standard operant conditioning. Behavior followed by reward reinforces the behavior. Behavior followed by no reward is not reinforced.

    If you are losing, but you can see the light at the end of the tunnel. If the winning seems close, seems possible, with just a little more effort on your part, then losing in that fashion is actually tremendously powerful motivation for most people.

    But losing without hope is the opposite. Try hard, team loses. Lollygag, team loses. Come back early from injury, team loses. Come back late, team loses. Dump it in, team loses. Carry it in, team loses. Try doing everything yourself, team loses. Try using your teammates, team loses. Score lots of points yourself, team loses. Score few points yourself, team loses. Try to play responsibly defensively, team loses. Cheat for offense, team loses. Eventually you get to the “what’s the point of trying or changing anything, the end result will always be the same”. I don’t think you’d find a single human being on this planet who can sustain motivation for anything in a situation like that for very long.

  31. Truth says:

    Hammers:
    Probably mistaken but it seems LT has given a whole bunch of reasons that the Oilers should consider trading Taylor Hall .

    I think it’s becoming pretty clear that the mgmt group has not been capable of handling their players properly. The worst thing for the organization would be allowing this same group to trade it’s best player due this mismanagement. They need to run this team like NHL executives, not Junior B.

  32. cahill says:

    Hall’s even strength issue is due to a couple of reasons numbers wise, ie – non-injury. His line isn’t scoring like it should & his IPP has normalized.

    Scoring is down 18% with Hall on the ice versus this time last year
    This year with Hall on the ice the Oilers are scoring 2.33 5×5 G/60
    Last year with Hall on the ice the Oilers were scoring 2.84 5×5 G/60
    His IPP has normalized.
    This year his IPP is 81.1% of 5X5 offense
    This year his IPP is 98.15% of 5×5 offense

    Hall’s line should be putting up roughly 2.8 – 3 Pts/60. As an FYI – the PDO with Hall on the ice is 102 so it isnt based on puck luck.

    This is his worst season since his rookie year.

    2012-13
    G/60 with Hall on ice – 3.10
    Hall’s IPP – 94.3

    2011-12
    G/60 with Hall on ice – 2.82
    IPP – 75.6

    2010-11
    G/60 with Hall on ice – 2.32
    IPP – 67.6

  33. Lowetide says:

    Hammers:
    Probably mistaken but it seems LT has given a whole bunch of reasons that the Oilers should consider trading Taylor Hall .

    That’s something you’ll never see on this blog. Ever

  34. Diesel says:

    Makes you wonder what Taylor Hall would look like (injuries, offensive production) if he had a nifty meat-wagon like Jamie Benn to play with for the last few years.

    For as much conversation as there has been regarding our woes at C, people still underestimate the total opportunity cost of our decisions.

  35. Really? says:

    I am sure that the residual effect of injuries plays a part in his lower output as does the likelihood of a slump. However, if we as fans know how vital is to the Oilers attack, is it not also reasonable to assume that NHL opponents have arrived at the same conclusion?

    Add to this factor the total lack of a second scoring threat on the Oilers and you allow opponents to almost totally focus on stopping Hall. Teams ensure their #1 D pairing is on the ice against him. The line opposing Hall hits him, obstructs him and otherwise frustrates him at every opportunity.

    Combine this with the fact that he is the only scorer with speed on the team and he ends up with a bulls-eye on his back every night. If he is playing on a team with a reasonable level of success the impact of this never ending grind is less significant and can be balanced with some positives. In the current environment that is not the case.

    So while injury effect and a potential slump factor should be considered, they are not the entire story. If we can imagine the Oilers having a player such as McEichel, the mere presence of such a talent could and definitely would create a more favorable milieu for Hall to operate in.

    It is for this reason that the 2015 draft position, the development of Yak and ultimately the development of Draisaitl are so critical to the Oilers. We have heard throughout the re-build that the Oilers have all this offensive talent. To date this has not manifested itself in any way other than with Hall. It is critical he get some support if this is ever to occur. An NHL team can not be a one trick pony.

  36. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    spoiler: This meme was refuted by Renney himself months ago.

    We even pointed it out to you at the time and you acknowledged not having seen Renney’s clarification.

    I missed this. Can you post a link. cheers.

  37. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Chris Wescott ‏@TheChrisWescott 3m3 minutes ago
    Boyd Gordon is absent at the start of #Oilers practice

    TRADE???

  38. Hammers says:

    In my years of coaching 2 different sports & 1 being hockey not once can I remember a player not chomping at the bit to get back on the team after recovering an injury . Granted they were kids 13-16 but all wanted back .The doctor says his ready and the player says his ready . I saw kids with the old casts on there arms that weighed a ton to knee problems that took old fashioned surgery (2 months ) but they all wanted back .The nature of most young boys / men is I’m ready to go . Hall and most players today are the same and they just want to play . Maybe its not right, with say head injuries but most coaches I think believe the player as many of them had similar problems when they played . It’s the way of all sport .

  39. vinotintazo says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Chris Wescott ‏@TheChrisWescott3m3 minutes ago
    Boyd Gordon is absent at the start of #Oilers practice

    TRADE???

    noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

  40. Snowman says:

    Diesel:
    Makes you wonder what Taylor Hall would look like (injuries, offensive production) if he had a nifty meat-wagon like Jamie Benn to play with for the last few years.

    For as much conversation as there has been regarding our woes at C, people still underestimate the total opportunity cost of our decisions.

    THIS! Unfortunately its impossible to measure. I am sure Hall would have multiple 100 point years with a player like Benn on his line. No disrespect to Nuge (who is the best player) or Eberle. They just can’t compliment Hall in the same way a big fast playmaker would.

  41. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    vinotintazo: noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

    surely he’s just taking a rest day… but the hilarity of imagining it is too tempting!

  42. Woodguy says:

    spoiler: This meme was refuted by Renney himself months ago.

    We even pointed it out to you at the time and you acknowledged not having seen Renney’s clarification.

    Its not a meme.

    Do you have Renney’s refutation?

    Here’s a link to the original Lapress story: http://www.lapresse.ca/sports/hockey/201410/21/01-4811111-tom-renney-le-hockey-nest-pas-la-wwf.php

    Coppernblue had a partial translation here:http://www.coppernblue.com/2014/10/31/7140267/tom-renneys-injury-revelations-the-oilers-rub-some-dirt-in-it

    “I’ve already lost a job because of my values. In Edmonton, I was asked to play young players more who had recently undergone operations. I reduced their ice time “, he says. “But they had to play because they were very good and we were selling hope. But I acted according to my conscience.”

    I don’t remember reading a refutation.

  43. Woodguy says:

    spoiler,

    But I am sure there will be much handwringing, and whinging about Souray, and trying to find molehills to make mountains out of despite math and common sense. Neurotic meme building trumps all. Because after all when we are talking about management we are talking about complete imbeciles who need help dressing and feeding themselves in the morning. Right?

    Sure ignore evidence all you want when it doesn’t fit your view.

    Again, you are using “meme” incorrectly.

    You mean “narrative”

  44. Hammers says:

    Really?:
    I am sure that the residual effect of injuries plays a part in his lower output as does the likelihood of a slump. However, if we as fans know how vital is to the Oilers attack, is it not also reasonable to assume that NHL opponents have arrived at the same conclusion?

    Add to this factor the total lack of a second scoring threat on the Oilers and you allow opponents to almost totally focus on stopping Hall. Teams ensure their #1 D pairing is on the ice against him. The line opposing Hall hits him, obstructs him and otherwise frustrates him at every opportunity.

    Combine this with the fact that he is the only scorer with speed on the team and he ends up with a bulls-eye on his back every night. If he is playing on a team with a reasonable level of success the impact of this never ending grind is less significant and can be balanced with some positives. In the current environment that is not the case.

    So while injury effect and a potential slump factor should be considered, they are not the entire story. If we can imagine the Oilers having a player such as McEichel, the mere presence of such a talent could and definitely would create a more favorable milieu for Hall to operate in.

    It is for this reason that the 2015 draft position, the development of Yak and ultimately the development of Draisaitl are so critical to the Oilers. We have heard throughout the re-build that the Oilers have all this offensive talent. To date this has not manifested itself in any way other than with Hall. It is critical he get some support if this is ever to occur. An NHL team can not be a one trick pony.

    I agree that Hall has the Bullseye on his back and he drives the team . That is why right now I would move him away from RNH . If you , LT, I and many more feel Hall draws the top coverage lets try freeing up Hopkins a bit . Hall say with Ebs on the other wing would still draw top coverage .

  45. haters says:

    So there’s a misconception that Oiler fans want the team to tank for draft picks. In my case however I only want them to keep losing so this inept management group will be shown the door. Could care less for McDavid, and more for a leader that won’t start the season with so many question marks.

    It’s amusing that people think the Oilers are a better team under Nelson. To me it’s almost like Fenwick close. Teams are easing up on us now. Same crap happens in the last half of the season every season it seems… Remember last year ?

    MacT and Lowe.
    Thank you for making the team I love a joke.
    Now piss off.

  46. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Hammers: I agree that Hall has the Bullseye on his back and he drives the team . That is why right now I would move him away from RNH . If you , LT, I and many more feel Hall draws the top coverage lets try freeing up Hopkins a bit . Hall say with Ebs on the other wing would still draw top coverage .

    I agree with this when they are at 100% and producing. Really liked the way Nuge stepped up with Hall hurt and Pouliot on his wing.

    However, at the moment, it seems to me like this top line needs each other because for whatever reasons, THIS YEAR, 2 out of the 3 are not quite up to usual standard. Liking the way they’ve started to cycle the puck the last few games and Eberle has been ticking up here.

    In stock market terms, we’re seeing a turn. Need to see if your stock will rally back quite a bit further before you sell. I think the Oilers need to leave them together for at least 20 games. Get them going scoring 2 goals a game as a line. Look for 1 more goal a game to come from elsewhere. And then when they are going strong and feel good on their own, you can start to bit by bit, spread the wealth.

    When they are at 100%, I really like Hall and Nuge on separate lines a la Kane and Toews. I’ve said this many a time. Chicago’s two best forwards play on different lines. Right now the Oilers aren’t there though.

  47. Yeti says:

    spoiler: Neurotic meme building trumps all. Because after all when we are talking about management we are talking about complete imbeciles who need help dressing and feeding themselves in the morning. Right?

    I presume you are aware that this management group have done themselves few favours over the past eight damned years, right? And, while no-one is questioning their ability to clothe and feed themselves, their ability to run a hockey team deserves considerable scrutiny given the level of clusterfuck that has enshrouded the team for far too long. I’m talking about not simply a general level of ineptitude, but some really standout stupid decisions and moments of pig-headed stubbornness. If any of this is remotely in doubt, then you may need to check in to see what condition your condition is in.

  48. Rondo says:

    Woodguy,

    “RE:Sam Bennett versus Mitch Marner

    They are similar players in some regards.

    Both players are relentless in puck pursuit and excel as forecheckers.

    Both players are exceptionally smart in the offensive end and do a great job of creating scoring chances.

    They’re similar size and both project as potential top line NHL players.

    Bennett is the better NHL prospect IMO, but by a slight margin. Bennett is the more physical player. He’s also a little better defensively right now. And Bennett is the slightly better skater. That’s not because Marner is a poor skater, but because Bennett is an exceptional skater (on the same level as McDavid in terms of edging and agility).”

    Brock Otten

  49. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy:
    spoiler,

    But I am sure there will be much handwringing, and whinging about Souray, and trying to find molehills to make mountains out of despite math and common sense. Neurotic meme building trumps all. Because after all when we are talking about management we are talking about complete imbeciles who need help dressing and feeding themselves in the morning. Right?

    Sure ignore evidence all you want when it doesn’t fit your view.

    Again, you are using “meme” incorrectly.

    You mean “narrative”

    You know, I’m really tempted to race over to memegenerator and create something for this right now.

    Just to be a dink.

    😉

  50. Ryan says:

    knighttown,

    Last year his 5v5/60 was bolstered by a ton of second assists too, wasn’t it?

  51. RexLibris says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: surely he’s just taking a rest day… but the hilarity of imagining it is too tempting!

    That would be an Oilers thing to do.

    Oilers BrainTrust A “Lander got a point on the powerplay last game”

    Oilers BrainTrust B “He’s ready. Let’s move Boyd.”

    OBT A “Sounds good. Give him the Gilbert treatment because Petry was ready, you mean?”

    OBT B “Oh, that reminds me…I have to call Holland back about that 5th rounder he mentioned…”

  52. TheOtherJohn says:

    Not saying Oilers are bad at managing injuries (actually they are bad at managing everything) but if they were in charge of Game of Thrones they would run Lord Eddard Stark’s headless body out as the Hand of the King in season 2 notwiithstanding a noticeable injury

  53. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    TheOtherJohn,

    I’m sure MOST people have seen it, but bad form to drop major spoilers without at least a spoiler alert.

    No offense to this site’s own spoiler,

  54. RexLibris says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    Not saying Oilers are bad at managing injuries (actually they are bad at managing everything) but if they were in charge of Game of Thrones they would runLord Eddard Stark’s headless body out as the Hand of the King in season 2 notwiithstanding a noticeable injury

    That’s because this is how hockey was played back in the Glory Days.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKhEw7nD9C4

  55. Rondo says:

    The problem is not the players. The players are just symptoms of the problem. The problem is an entrenched Oiler old boys establishment that keeps failing again and again and yet it keeps on applying the same failed solutions to problems. Players come and players go, but this Oiler establishment is forever and no matter how many times its remedies fail, it keeps on applying them without an ounce of self-reflection.

  56. PhrankLee says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: surely he’s just taking a rest day… but the hilarity of imagining it is too tempting!

    But this trade is happening at the deadline.

  57. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    PhrankLee,

    You’re back. Wanted to respond to you from the last thread and say sorry. I realized I sounded snippy. Didn’t mean to be. I know you were making a comment about LT’s impact and breadth of his readership. I came across as sounding annoyed. I was on my phone and posting hastily on my way to work. So, apologies for that.

  58. Hammers says:

    Lowetide: That’s something you’ll never see on this blog. Ever

    Problem was you started by saying his drop in production is so drastic then go on to telling us his been injured every year and your right. Those are things that should concern him and the Oilers. Hell I don’t want to see him traded either but these things have to be at least analyzed . My fear isn’t this year but I want to see a bounce back next year and preferable with no injuries . Just stating an opinion .

  59. Ben says:

    Any further clarification on Bob Green’s role/title?

  60. PhrankLee says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”,

    No problem. I did’t take any offence. I like it here because people are smart and we all know how rare that is online.

    Kind as well, it would seem.

    Well met.

  61. Woodguy says:

    RexLibris: You know, I’m really tempted to race over to memegenerator and create something for this right now.

    Just to be a dink.

    Like this?

    http://memegenerator.net/instance/57879915

  62. Jon K says:

    Oh man, a caller is absolutely schooling Stauffer on Petry right now. It’s so so good.

    “Petry might want to test the market because there are no UFA defensemen this year.”

    “So why aren’t the Oilers trying to sign him? How are they going to replace him if there are no UFAs?”

    “Well they can move Nikitin over to the right side and Nurse will be in the NHL at some point next year…”

    “Nikitin is terrible. Why would the Oilers want to move their best defensemen just as they’ve spent all these years developing him?”

    “Petry isn’t the Oilers best defenseman.”

    “What? Then who is?”

    “The Oilers don’t have a best defenseman (what?!), but Justin Schultz plays more minutes than Petry.”

    “Bob, Schultz gets offensive zone draws and doesn’t play tough opposition that Petry does. When he does play toughs he gets killed.”

    “Yes well he has had his struggles…”

    Kudos caller. Didn’t catch his name.

    Edit: fellow was Brad. Now asking Drew Remenda about the points raised by Brad.

  63. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    PhrankLee: But this trade is happening at the deadline.

    Why?

    If you are going to trade him… trade him as soon as you can get a solid return.

  64. razor says:

    Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie 1h1 hour ago
    No official word from EDM, not sure of exact title, but former Oil King GM Bob Green has been elevated to oversee EDM player development.

    Not sure if anyone posted this yet.

  65. TheOtherJohn says:

    Jon K,

    Nikitan is the 20th guy that Stauffer has said can play the opposite(right) side. Last one before Nikitan was…….Ference. Before that it was Nick Schultz. Very litle evidence that any one of those three guys can play their strong side competently little alone the right side.

  66. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Bob Green has a nice resume.

    Yet the optics of this still aren’t good. The Oilers promoting people already in the organization to new roles while the old guard that messed this all up are the ones doing the king-making.

    I can’t wait to read the reactions from people around the interwebs to this one.

  67. frjohnk says:

    I have to double check the numbers but since MacT was hired as GM there have been 117 trades in the league. Oilers have been involved in 19 of them or 14% of all trades

  68. Магия 10 says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”:
    Bob Green has a nice resume.

    Yet the optics of this still aren’t good. The Oilers promoting people already in the organization to new roles while the old guard that messed this all up are the ones doing the king-making.

    I can’t wait to read the reactions from people around the interwebs to this one.

    Unless everyone at Kingsway for more than a week is to be canned, I’d rather expect to see some promoted and some let go. Promoting the guys who recently moved in from developing juniors to the Memorial Cup 3 times isn’t the issue. It’s showing the door to some others.

    edit: bobby mac says overseeing all scouting as well.

  69. PhrankLee says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Why?
    If you are going to trade him… trade him as soon as you can get a solid return.

    Because his value will be greatest at the trade deadline.

    He has one year left at a slightly high figure but when teams are stocking the playoff shelves it’s guys exactly like Boyd Gordon they round out the squad with.

    Experienced, lean, selfless, faceoff wizard, defensive whiz, character, etc…

    Playoff teams are probably already knocking on the door.

  70. RexLibris says:

    Glad for Bob Green to get the promotion. Anything that dilutes Scott Howson’s input is a plus in my book.

    His draft record is good, he rarely took “coke machines” early unless they had shown some ability and he oversaw a system that found good players off the beaten track (eg: Cody Corbett – playing in Stillwater High School, Minnesota).

    The teams he built were balanced, incredibly so. They could go toe-to-toe with the bigger teams like Moose Jaw or run and gun with Portland.

    Green is an NHL GM in training. Let’s see how he handles the player development part.

  71. Derek says:

    PhrankLee: Because his value will be greatest at the trade deadline.

    He has one year left at a slightly high figure but when teams are stocking the playoff shelves it’s guys exactly like Boyd Gordon they round out the squad with.

    Experienced, lean, selfless, faceoff wizard, defensive whiz, character, etc…

    Playoff teams are probably already knocking on the door.

    Not a lot of playoff teams can afford a defensive specialist at Gordons cap hit, especially not with that extra year on his contract.

  72. RexLibris says:

    PhrankLee: Because his value will be greatest at the trade deadline.

    He has one year left at a slightly high figure but when teams are stocking the playoff shelves it’s guys exactly like Boyd Gordon they round out the squad with.

    Experienced, lean, selfless, faceoff wizard, defensive whiz, character, etc…

    Playoff teams are probably already knocking on the door.

    I agree somewhat with Rom in that in this situation, where Gordon is not an impending UFA the offered return may be greater now as teams haven’t pursued other players and thus diminished their pool of available assets.

    If the Oilers deal Gordon they’ll want as much as possible. You want to time the move such that the team feels they are getting him for an extended period (and thus enjoying a greater impact) but before they’ve swung other deals and have run out of choice prospects/picks.

    Petry is another matter in that, depending on the market for UFA defensemen, sometimes the longer you leave it the higher the bidding goes.

  73. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    PhrankLee: Because his value will be greatest at the trade deadline.

    last year the deadline proved otherwise.

    You may well get better value now. Set your price and go to market.

  74. Derek says:

    Also, you can see the highlights of Leons Kelowna debut at their site: http://kelownarockets.com/

    The poor guy calling the goals sounds like he’s in incredible pain but I did enjoy him calling Draisaitl “The Squirmin’ German”.

  75. RexLibris says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: last year the deadline proved otherwise.

    You may well get better value now. Set your price and go to market.

    As long as they get a better return than Cammalleri last year.

    *snicker*

  76. PhrankLee says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: last year the deadline proved otherwise.

    Last year he took MacT at his word they would be competitive.

    He gets a walk. Unless they can extend him. I would love that but as mentioned he wants to play for a competitive team now.

    And playing the way he does in this league has earned him the respect.

    Anyway he could be just the greatest catalyst for a high profile trade there ever was. (hyperbole, I know)

  77. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    Derek: “The Squirmin’ German”

    Squirmin… hmmm… maybe the Determined German? No…

    Too bad he wasn’t a speedy Russian – then they could call him The Rocket’s Red Glare!

  78. Woodguy says:

    Derek: Not a lot of playoff teams can afford a defensive specialist at Gordons cap hit, especially not with that extra year on his contract.

    The closer you get to the deadline the more teams can afford him as the cap space grows daily on.

    Some team that thinks they have a real shot this year and gets an injury may try to get him and then decided what to do with him in the summer.

  79. freedomisamyth says:

    I used to read Oilers talk on here only because it was mostly smart talk, instead of the usual babble on most of the Oiler fan sites. Unfortunately it seems like 90% of every thread (and sadly even a lot of the articles themselves) now descend into mindless circle jerks about what perceived stupid thing management has done in the past, and what stupid thing management is sure to do in the future, with little regard to evidence anymore. If it’s something that can be looked at in a negative light, it’s taken that way. Anyone trying to say otherwise is attacked for ‘ignoring evidence to fit your view’ and ridiculed.

    It’s certainly fine to take the view that management isn’t doing a good job, and the record is plenty evidence enough of that, but is it possible to have a nuanced view on this subject still? Or is the only thing worth doing now just trying to look cool and edgy with cynical comments to make yourself feel superior to those in charge who can actually do something? Cuz that shit ain’t real interesting.

    What I wouldn’t do to have a thread that I don’t have to hear about how the problem with this team is the Old Boys Club and all would be well if they’d just be fired. You might be right, but repeating it a million times every thread sure gets old quickly. There are more interesting things to talk about.

    I’m probably considered an apologist at this point, but from my mind that’s just a sad indictment of what this has become, when not jumping to conclusions about every little thing makes you an apologist. It’s hard to remain objective when something you love is turning into something that causes you pain, but we’d all be better for it.

  80. PhrankLee says:

    Woodguy: Some team that thinks they have a real shot this year and gets an injury may try to get him and then decided what to do with him in the summer.

    You clear minded types are good at this! I muddle.

    I would rather have him on squad and figure it out than not have him on squad and let his contract club work on him all off-season.

    He is rare.

    Rare enough that if I got him at the deadline I would rest him for a full week.

    Why the hell not? I’m making the playoffs without him anyway.

  81. Derek says:

    Woodguy: The closer you get to the deadline the more teams can afford him as the cap space grows daily on.

    Some team that thinks they have a real shot this year and gets an injury may try to get him and then decided what to do with him in the summer.

    Indeed, but the potential return for a player they shouldn’t even be trading shrinks when the number of suitors drops off. That, and a player with Gordons skill set married to his cap hit is probably more valuable as a rental.

    Why are we talking about trading Gordon? I feel like i’m taking crazy pills.

  82. Ca$h-Money! says:

    Derek: Indeed, but the potential return for a player they shouldn’t even be trading shrinks when the number of suitors drops off.That, and a player with Gordons skill set married to his cap hit is probably more valuable as a rental.

    Why are we talking about trading Gordon? I feel like i’m taking crazy pills.

    Couldn’t agree more. We can’t afford to lose Petry, but that’s up to him and I don’t see any reason he’d stick around other than a 30% long term overpay (which we can’t afford).

    We need Gordon next year. After that we need to look at his play (has it dropped off?) and decide if we need him for 1 or 2 more years.

    I don’t believe we can replace him in free agency this summer. We need to spend this summer figuring out our D and G positions.

    Please, please keep the man.**

    ** as with every trade, that depends on return. My whining is based on the assumption that the return is a B prospect/pick.

  83. DBO says:

    from Oilers practice. LT you get your wish for Yak.

    Hall-RNH-Eberle
    Pouliot-Roy-Yakupov
    Fraser-Lander-Purcell
    Gazdic, Hendricks & Klinkhammer

    Gordon wasn’t on ice. So slot him in for Gazdic for next game. I like it.

  84. Nostradumbass says:

    RexLibris:
    Glad for Bob Green to get the promotion. Anything that dilutes Scott Howson’s input is a plus in my book.

    His draft record is good, he rarely took “coke machines” early unless they had shown some ability and he oversaw a system that found good players off the beaten track (eg: Cody Corbett – playing in Stillwater High School, Minnesota).

    The teams he built were balanced, incredibly so. They could go toe-to-toe with the bigger teams like Moose Jaw or run and gun with Portland.

    Green is an NHL GM in training. Let’s see how he handles the player development part.

    This hire is going to be at Stu’s expense is it not?

  85. PhrankLee says:

    Ca$h-Money!: We need to spend this summer figuring out our D and G positions.

    Don’t you think a package of Gordo and the Peron pick could address one of those areas?

    I think the value is there.

  86. DBO says:

    And MacT on Nurse:

    “When we drafted Darnell, I felt like there was a couple of criteria we wanted met before he was ready to play here,” MacTavish said. “I wanted him to be over 200 pounds and I wanted him to have a World Junior experience, much like he just had. The criteria have been met, I think that his development is pretty exciting for all Oilers fans.”

    Sounds pretty much like Nurse is an Oiler next year. So much for taking our time. Be best to play him 25 games in the minors at least. But Oilers.

    So

    Klefbom-Fayne
    Nurse- Schultz
    Ference-Nikitin (based on Stauffers comments).
    ??

    Look way better with Marincin and Petry wouldn’t it

    Klefbom-Petry
    Marincin-Fayne
    Nurse-Schultz
    Ference

  87. Bag of Pucks says:

    I thought the Oilers released the medical opinion at the time of Hall’s return, and the conclusion was the knee wasn’t 100% but he was cleared for return because returning would not damage it further, and only time would return full strength & flexibility (hence the brace)?

    Maybe I’m giving mgmt too much benefit of the doubt but I can’t buy into a conspiracy theory that believes they’ll risk permanent damage to their $42mil racehorse for a meaningless 10-20 game stretch.

    I also can’t see Hall risking permanent injury either. As mentioned, his agent is freakin Bobby Orr. If anyone could advise him on the risk of career ending knee damage….

  88. RexLibris says:

    Nostradumbass,

    I haven’t yet read anything more than what was quoted above.

    If he takes over Director of Player Development I think that is in Rick Carriere’s area. Maybe it puts him closer to Scott Howson’s responsibilities. I didn’t see Director of Amateur Scouting, which is, I believe, Stu MacGregor’s official title.

    Who knows, maybe Green leapfrogs MacGregor and becomes his boss, thereby, presumably, having some amount of input on the draft list.

  89. RexLibris says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    I thought the Oilers released the medical opinion at the time of Hall’s return, and the conclusion was the knee wasn’t 100% but he was cleared for return because returning would not damage it further, and only time would return full strength & flexibility (hence the brace)?

    Maybe I’m giving mgmt too much benefit of the doubt but I can’t buy into a conspiracy theory that believes they’ll risk permanent damage to their $42mil racehorse for a meaningless 10-20 game stretch.

    I also can’t see Hall risking permanent injury either. As mentioned, his agent is freakin Bobby Orr. If anyone could advise him on the risk of career ending knee damage….

    I’m reminded of a Jack Nicholson’s line in As Good As It Gets when asked how he manages to write about the opposite sex so well:

    “I think of a man. And take away reason and accountability.”

    Ladies and Gentlemen, YOUR EDMONTON OILERS!

  90. Numenius says:

    Trading Gordon anytime this season is asinine, imo. A lesson that even the Oilers management would have learned by now is you need to hold onto enough good veterans while you develop the younger talent.

    Petry’s another matter. Here’s my guess on the Petry situation:

    1. Petry is open to another contract and he’s not going to be unreasonable in his demands, but he (reasonably enough) doesn’t want to give a hometown discount.

    2. The Oilers still have blinders on as to his value (see the Stauffer exchange).

    3. Thus, they will not try to get a contract done with him.

    4. McT has promised to give Nelson a roster that will give him a chance to win and earn the head coaching job for next year.

    5. Nelson has made it a condition of his employment that they not trade Petry (or Gordon for that matter) at the deadline.

    6. Thus, Petry will stay with the Oil until the end of the season, and then will walk without any return.

    The only other scenario that makes any sense to me is that Johnny Boychuk has made it known through a friend of a friend of a friend that he is opening to signing with the Oilers in the off-season.

    That would make sense of Stauffer’s bizarre comments without insulting his intellect (as much).

  91. Rebuilder says:

    I enjoy the rants about the percieved decisions about the Oiler’s management team. I picture in my mind the posters standing around and discussing similar topics such as: If a witch floats, and wood floats, then a witch is made of woods, and then they all cry Burn her! Or if I think the oiler’s managment have done something stupid, and others agree, then they did do somehting stupid and they all cry “Fire Lowe!” Thank goodness the Oiler’s Management doesn’t need to handle the Holy Handgrenade, that could prove devistating.

  92. misfit says:

    5. Nelson has made it a condition of his employment that they not trade Petry (or Gordon for that matter) at the deadline.

    What? Is Nelson in that high demand for NHL HC job (of which there are only 30 in the world) that he will only take the job if he gets this kind of control over roster moves?

    I think, once again, the simplest explanation is probably the most correct. I’d say a combination of the Oilers overestimating their “future” (Schultz/Nurse) and underestimating the best defenseman currently on their roster (Petry), along with the fact that Petry sees the opportunity UFA status will give him are the reasons why he is not signed beyond this year, and why he will likely be traded by the deadline.

  93. Zangetsu says:

    DBO:
    And MacT on Nurse:

    “When we drafted Darnell, I felt like there was a couple of criteria we wanted met before he was ready to play here,” MacTavish said. “I wanted him to be over 200 pounds and I wanted him to have a World Junior experience, much like he just had. The criteria have been met, I think that his development is pretty exciting for all Oilers fans.”

    Sounds pretty much like Nurse is an Oiler next year. So much for taking our time. Be best to play him 25 games in the minors at least. But Oilers.

    So

    Klefbom-Fayne
    Nurse- Schultz
    Ference-Nikitin (based on Stauffers comments).
    ??

    Look way better with Marincin and Petry wouldn’t it

    Klefbom-Petry
    Marincin-Fayne
    Nurse-Schultz
    Ference

    Thats such oilers logic. It’s so archaic. 200 lbs is light for a 6’4 dman. Not to mention that shouldn’t really factor in. WJC is a short tournament and shouldn’t be used as criteria. Shows how much the oil think kids need before being bonafide.

    Nurse needed to show me some offensive acumen, add some mass and strength, and show a more intelligent(less raw) defensive game. I saw him as at best 4 years away, and I think he is still in a position where he needs ahl time. He is likely on the oilers board in sharpie though, because how better to train a baby seal than to hit it with a club?

  94. russ99 says:

    Again, free agency is a two way street.

    The only way Petry comes back is if they pay him and he has a chance to win.

    So far, no dice on both counts.

    So if you’re going to lose him for nothing, may as well get a decent pick.

  95. commonfan14 says:

    Numenius: 5. Nelson has made it a condition of his employment that they not trade Petry (or Gordon for that matter) at the deadline.

    Are we sure that Nelson had any choice about his move to HC? He’s an Oilers employee, right? He might just have had to go where his bosses told him to go.

  96. frjohnk says:

    If Nurse skips the AHL and enters the NHL as a 20 year old that would not be uncommon for a guy with his draft pedigree

    Majority of the D men drafted in the top 10 since 2007 are in the NHL by the time they are 20. Many only play a handful of AHL games. Usually when their junior teams lost out in the playoffs. Many don’t even play one game in the AHL.

    He is at about 205 pounds right now.

    Probably comes into camp next year at 212.

    The issue I would have is that his put into the top 4 right off the bat with Schultz as he is partner. That would be the huge mistake.

    Third pairing with an Andy Sutton veteran type is what he needs.

  97. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    RexLibris: Who knows, maybe Green leapfrogs MacGregor and becomes his boss, thereby, presumably, having some amount of input on the draft list.

    Bob McKenzie
    Bob McKenzie
    @TSNBobMcKenzie
    Follow
    We’ll know more once EDM makes formal announcement but if I’m understanding it correctly, Bob Green is overseeing all scouting.

  98. frjohnk says:

    Here are the D picked in the top 10 since 2007.
    Games in AHL. Age when there in the NHL fulltime in parathesis

    2007
    Hickey full time in NHL at 23
    Alnzer 116 games in AHL ( 22 when full time in NHL)

    2008
    Doughty – 0 games in AHL ( 19)
    Bogosian- 5 (19)
    Schenn- 0 ( 19)
    Pietranagleo 1 (20)

    2009
    Hedman 0 (19)
    OEL 35 (19) 20 games were in the lockout
    Cowan 13 (20)

    2010
    Gudbranson 2 ( 19)
    McILath Still in AHL

    2011
    Larsson 67 ( 19) still back and forth from AHL and NHL
    Hamilton 0 (19)
    Brodin 0 ( 19)

    2012
    Murray 0 ( 20)
    Reinhart in AHL as a 20 yearold
    Reilly 14 (19)
    Trouba 0 (19)
    Dumba 22 AHL games, has played both NHL and AHL
    Pouliot 24 ( at 20 he is now with Pens)
    Lindholm 44 (19)

    2013
    Jones 0 (19)
    Nurse?????????????
    Ristolainen 39 (20)

    Some of these AHL games played were played when the junior team lost out and include playoff games. Some of these games played in the AHL were played during the lockout.

  99. Hammers says:

    Auston Matthews ’16: Bob McKenzie
    Bob McKenzie
    @TSNBobMcKenzieFollow
    We’ll know more once EDM makes formal announcement but if I’m understanding it correctly, Bob Green is overseeing all scouting.

    I guess my only question is since when is running a junior organizations development mean you can do it at the NHL level. If correct both McGregor and Gares groups will report to Green . Only other thing is his there to start the replacement phase for both groups. .

  100. Магия 10 says:

    Jan. 1 was the first days for extensions. If all forms of scouting now go through Green, that means evaluation of all replacement options and trade returns is now in the hands of someone promoted during the audit, rather than someone on the way out. That should help with unsticking any doable extensions.

  101. Магия 10 says:

    Hammers: I guess my only question is since when is running a junior organizations development mean you can do it at the NHL level. If correct both McGregor and Gares groups will report to Green . Only other thing is his there to start the replacement phase for both groups. .

    This comes back to the question of briefing the scouts and letting them do there job. For all we know MBS has previously been overriden by the fellow he reported directly to.

  102. Bag of Pucks says:

    RexLibris: I’m reminded of a Jack Nicholson’s line in As Good As It Gets when asked how he manages to write about the opposite sex so well:

    “I think of a man. And take away reason and accountability.”

    Ladies and Gentlemen, YOUR EDMONTON OILERS!

    Did some research. Hall returned to the lineup 17 days after injury. Recommended treatment for grade 2 mcl tear is 2-4 weeks recovery. I have no difficulty understanding why a 23 year old elite athlete in top physical condition would be closer to the shorter end of that recovery window. Taylor Hall is not an overweight elderly man. He also has access to state of the art stabilizing braces.

    http://shar.es/1HQeLe

    I get the wont to demonize mgmt on all fronts. They invite much of this suspicion over their past actions, but it doesn’t seem to hold up here,

    They may be dumb, but dumb enough to kill the $42mil golden goose? Nah.

  103. And your name is? says:

    PunjabiOil:
    Sometimes the simplest explanation is the most logical.

    The story of the virgin birth does not lack for simplicity. I don’t even think a professional auctioneer could gain first-mover advantage over someone in the crowd promptly ejaculating “It’s a miracle!”

    I have Karl Popper’s The Logic of Scientific Discovery on my desk today.

    In the index of this book, the “Falsification, evasion of” sub-item runs a full column inch before being curtailed by four references to other index entries to avoid duplication.

    It’s the work of a lifetime to put a baby back into a bathtub.

    I wrote the paragraph quoted below the other day to satirise 1) small sample size; and 2) how rapidly people were judging the coaching change; after frjohnk wrote “With Eakins we were one of the worst possession teams with the lead.”

    My private first reaction was to put the over/under on how many minutes our team had actually played with the lead over thirty odd games at about 200 minutes, but perhaps (I’m afraid to look) that was pessimistic.

    Despite our record, we mostly played in tight games (almost invariably on the trailing side) where the next goal still mattered. As a consequence, certain players (such as our two zone-owning centermen) were chronically overplayed. This almost certainly leads to score effects as the beleaguered coach (who was possibly a league over his head) begins to titrate the exhaustion level with thoughts of tomorrow, which very likely is tomorrow when you’re on an Eastern Conference road trip (“Where better to lead you with?” says Phil, the cryptic wolf of Delphi).

    Anyway, here was my original paragraph:

    The most shocking scene in The Blues Brothers is when they finally decide to play Rawhide and it’s pretty tight from the first note—without the least trace of Quando, Quando, Quando—since they only play Country or Western once in a Blues moon, unlike the Good Ole Boys who really know how to strangle (or recroup) a lead—once they finally show up.

    I wonder how many people noticed that “Quando, Quando, Quando” (performed by Murph And The Magic Tones) comes from the original Italian version of the song (1962) whose title translates to “When, When, When”. It’s actually kind of funny in the movie, because the band spends the entire road trip to nowhere complaining “Are we there yet?” until Jake has a panicky inspiration (possibly “light” infused) to gate-crash the country bar. Somehow—one night only—the Good Ole Boys got it into their heads—without the use of drugs or alcohol—that they were gigging well after traditional closing hours at a Country and Western Rave bar, to judge by how solvent and composed they all appear to be having just pulled into a freshly vacated parking lot. It really leaves the viewer wondering what greater force bumped their thin needle of consciousness to aid and abet Jake’s desperate plan.

    1. Spend two years dressed in “candy ass monkey suits” playing Quando, Quando, Quando to empty rooms.
    2. “I don’t think so man. Those lights are off on purpose.”
    3. “Hey I got it. Remember the theme from Rawhide?”
    4. What key? … A. … Hit it!
    5. Tight, bright musical perfection.

    It’s a miracle!

    [*] It’s not an accident that my phrase “tight, bright” rhymes with Lite-Brite. For the younger generation who escaped this domineering Saturday morning Glo-Glee-Matrix, Lite-Brite is now available as an iPad app—I kid you not; nor, either, when I say I probably spent more hours under the influence of that jingle (in ceaseless tiny doses—”light bulb not included”) than I did watching the Canada-USSR hockey series under sway of a national mania.

    [**] Most physicists will tell you they got their start with Meccano (my preference) or Lego, but I figure David Deutsch got his start with Lite-Brite (jingle: “Lite-Brite—making things with li-eye-ight”). As we all knew deep down in our grasping fingers, the child with the best toy wins. In my defense, nobody told me about laser Lite-Brite with beam-splitters and diffraction gratings.

    [***] The “How Low Can You Go” scene from Toy Story 2 (see Tour guide Barbie) was momentarily almost as good as the “no capes” saga from The Incredibles. Had I been involved in the animation project, there would have been a scene where a box of Laser Lite-Brite (!!!) is briefly visible illustrated with something like this simplified and reconceived in an Optical Chocolate Factory colour palette (4000 lb anti-vibration table sold separately).

    [****] More distractionary goodness at Optical Illusions, the Holographic Mirage and the Making of an Infinity Mirror… including an actually cool Lite-Brite well-shaft illusion based on simple LEDs and a pair of mirrors, one of which is partially reflective (silver lining sold separately).

    [*****] If I was so loaded that my penthouse suite side-lounge contained a $30,000 Eagle Pool Table after the girls go home, I would roll up the red felt and there really would be a fully vibration-damped optical breadboard ready and awaiting my darkness-piercing decree—conveniently situated under a dome-shaped sky light and I would smoke dry-ice e-cigs through an opera-length Mata Hari cigarette holder.

    ———

    I’m not actually that keen on these visual divisions (when it breaks up an argument), but kids these days ….

    ———

    Now where was I before I interjected that little snippet of short-form soul food? Oh yeah, I had Karl Popper fronting The Blues Brothers.

    After my little riff on Rawhide a la right now, I was mainly left pondering an oddity from the diner scene.

    Janet Maslin of The New York Times criticized the film for shortchanging viewers on more details about Jake and Elwood’s affinity for African-American culture. She also took director Landis to task for “distracting editing”, mentioning the Soul Food diner scene in which saxophonist Lou Marini’s head is cut off as he dances on the counter. In the documentary, Stories Behind the Making of The Blues Brothers, Landis acknowledges the criticism, and Marini recalls the dismay he felt at seeing the completed film.

    What’s interesting here is that Marini hasn’t done that badly out of the whole deal—but only after his severed head entered the cultural zeitgeist. Had no-one complained, he would have been singled out as just some guy in a white food-service apron while comparable band members were visually recognizable.

    No complaint strategy: Suffer with less recognition that your expected share.

    Complaint strategy: Gain more recognition than your expected share.

    By being singled out for unusual treatment by the director, Marini loses the central option: to just get the same amount of recognition as the other band mates who are not fronting the scene.

    If he flipped a coin before deciding whether to complain, then he could achieve his fair share of recognition (probabilistically amortized) only no-one would know it (when you lose the coin flip, it’s hard to go around blowing your horn about not blowing your horn). In software, this kind of thing is sometimes done in queue management algorithms that strive for fairness (on balance). But it doesn’t play well in human systems.

    That little phrase “on balance” happens to be a giant keel puncture in the simplicity paradigm. Simple explanations are rarely correct “on balance”.

    ———

    Almost Twitter version of this entire post:

    The entire “back too soon from injury” meme is an egg shell sloop at sea in the North Atlantic.

    ———

    Premise: All non-permanent injuries return to 100% if you sit around long enough and rehab properly.

    Reality: Your game skill erodes the entire while, and many injuries don’t progress better by sitting around on the sidelines. Sometimes you just have to get back out there and re-learn how to use the joint with permanently looser connective tissue.

    Now we’re finally back to Popper: falsification, evasion of.

    The argument from simplicity is often used to dodge the difficult thinking required to make an unbiased “on balance” assessment. Once “on balance” has left the building, it’s becomes darn easy to plunge in the knife of coaching incompetence (which is just a single blade in the Swiss Army knife of Oiler incompetence all the way to the top of the organization), with “logic” supplying all the shiny cobblestones for the short hike to the desired conclusion.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca