OILERS AT PANTHERS G46, 2014-15

This is Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. In speaking to Travis Yost from TSN yesterday, he made the point that Nuge may have reached the point where he is more ‘untouchable’ than Taylor Hall. I’m not there yet, for me RNH needs to play at this level for awhile longer to be considered established, but it does tell us that:

  • the changing of the guard may be occurring as we speak
  • the No. 1 overall picks in 2010 and 2011 were outstanding
  • Yak not developing is a big damn deal

The Oilers do win these constests, examples this century include Ty Conklin and more recently Justin Schultz. The resume is terrific and Edmonton’s depth chart has to impress this young man (he might cut through it like a knife through butter).

EICHEL

Jack Eichel, USA

I think the Oilers take a center at the draft this season but the the club doesn’t have to ‘draft for need’ as they have most certainly done in the past (I’d suggest 2013 first round was the latest example but there were others).

THE TOP 30 PLAYERS IN THE 2015 DRAFT

  1. (1) C Connor McDavid, Erie Otters (OHL) 22gp, 19-38-57 (2.59)
  2. (2) C Jack Eichel, Boston U (NCAA) 19gp, 10-22-32 (1.68)
  3. (5) R Mitch Marner, London Knights (OHL) 41gp, 33-53-86 (2.10)
  4. (4) C Dylan Strome, Erie Otters (OHL) 42gp, 28-49-77 (1.83)
  5. (3) D Noah Hanifin, Boston College (NCAA) 21gp, 3-9-12 (0.57)
  6. (10) D Oliver Kylington, Farjestad (SHL) 13gp, 3-3-6 (0.46)
  7. (6) D Zach Werenski, Michigan (NCAA). 18gp, 3-12-15 (0.83)
  8. (9) R Mikko Rantanen, TPS Turku (SML). 35gp, 3-11-14 (0.40)
  9. (11) D Ivan Provorov, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL) 39gp, 11-40-51 (1.31)
  10. (17) Evgeni Svechnikov, Cape Breton Screaming Eagles (QMJHL). 32gp, 16-30-46 (1.44)
  11. (7) C Nick Merkley, Kelowna (WHL). 45gp, 14-50-64 (1.42)
  12. (16) C Jansen Harkins, Prince George Cougars (WHL) 43gp, 13-37-50 (1.16)
  13. (13) C Mathew Barzal, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL) 16gp, 7-11-18 (1.13)
  14. (8) C Pavel Zacha, Sarnia Sting (OHL) 26gp, 11-12-23 (0.88)
  15. (18) D Jeremy Roy, Sherbrooke Phoenix (QMJHL) 38gp, 5-33-38 (1.00)
  16. (25) C Filip Chlapik, Charlottetown Islanders (QMJHL). 40gp, 19-28-47 (1.18)
  17. (23) C Anthony Beauvillier, Shawinigan Cataractes (QMJHL). 44gp, 30-34-64 (1.45)
  18. (12) R Nikita Korostelev, Sarnia Sting (OHL). 34gp, 16-20-36 (1.06)
  19. (15) R Daniel Sprong, Charlettown Islanders (QMJHL) 44gp, 22-26-48 (1.09)
  20. (26) L Jake Debrusk, Swift Current (WHL). 45gp, 24-21-45 (1.00)
  21. (NR) D Mitchell Vande Sompel, Oshawa (OHL) 36gp, 6-34-40 (1.11)
  22. (14) L Lawson Crouse, Kingston Frontenacs (OHL). 28gp, 14-7-21 (0.75)
  23. (28) R Jens Looke, Brynas (SHL). 31gp, 2-4-6 (0.19)
  24. (20) C Travis Konecny, Ottawa 67’s (OHL). 41gp, 19-22-41 (1.00)
  25. (24) D Jakub Zboril, Saint John Seadogs (QMJHL). 33gp, 8-14-22 (0.67)
  26. (19) C Jeremy Bracco, USND (USHL). 9gp, 5-7-12 (1.33)
  27. (21) L Dennis Yan, Shawinigan Cataractes (QMJHL). 35gp, 19-21-40 (1.14)
  28. (29) C Kyle Connor, Youngstown (USHL). 28gp, 12-22-34 (1.21)
  29. (27) L Ryan Gropp, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL). 39gp, 16-18-34 (0.87)
  30. (30) R Brock Boeser, Waterloo Blackhawks (USHL). 29gp, 19-17-36 (1.24)

Lots of movement this week, owing mostly to more familiarity with these kids and the boxcars starting to separate. There will be more Euro’s (KHL, SHL, SML) as we head toward spring and really we have to suss out where men like Crouse and Zacha are going to settle. The math doesn’t love them anywhere close to the scouts view, so we have another case to watch as we go through the process. I’ve been reading on Kylington this week, that’s the reason for his spike. I have Marner at No. 3 this week but it’s not close to decided in my mind—that might be the worst spot in the draft.

yakimov rodgers 14-15

THE CPHL

I’ve mentioned this so much it must exasperate you but it seems SO wasteful to send unready kids to the AHL from junior and Europe. If these young men aren’t in a prominent role by Christmas I have to think the better plan is to have a ‘Double-A’ league that is best described by the ECHL. OR maybe you run a ‘winter league’ like baseball, where all the new hires from junior, college and Europe play in an Arizona Fall League to separate themselves good or bad. Here are 2013 draft picks who are currently playing in the AHL:

  1. No. 15 overall Ryan Pulock (NYI) 29gp, 12-5-17
  2. No. 19 overall Kerby Rychel (CBJ) 35gp, 10-13-23
  3. No. 20 overall Anthony Mantha (DET) 25gp, 6-6-12
  4. No. 22 overall Emile Poirier (CAL) 31gp, 12-12-24
  5. No. 24 overall Hunter Shinkaruk (VAN) 36gp, 5-8-13
  6. No. 27 overall Marko Dano (CBJ) 25gp, 8-5-13
  7. No. 30 overall Ryan Hartman (CHI) 39gp, 6-8-14
  8. No. 34 overall Jacob De La Rose (MON) 31gp, 4-2-6
  9. No. 41 overall Robert Hagg (PHI) 30gp, 3-11-14
  10. No. 46 overall Gustav Olofsson (MIN) 1gp, 0-0-0
  11. No. 57 overall William Carrier (STL) 36gp, 3-3-6
  12. No. 64 overall Jonathan Ismael Diaby (NAS) 25gp, 0-0-0
  13. No. 71 overall Connor Crisp (MON) 21gp, 1-1-2
  14. No. 83 overall Bogdan Yakimov (EDM) 33gp, 3-10-13
  15. No. 86 overall Sven Andrighetto (MON) 23gp, 9-9-18
  16. No. 91 overall JC Lipon (WPG) 39gp, 1-10-11
  17. No. 95 overall Felix Girard (NAS) 37gp, 3-5-8
  18. No. 103 overall Justin Auger (LAK) 34gp, 6-10-16
  19. No. 124 overall Kristers Gudlevskis (TB) 19gp, 2.85 .900
  20. No. 146 overall Patrik Bartosak (LAK) 13gp, 2.29 .911
  21. No. 154 overall Henri Ikonen (TB) 37gp, 4-5-9
  22. No. 160 overall Myles Bell (NJD) 2gp, 0-0-0
  23. No. 166 overall Alan Quine (NYI) 36gp, 9-19-28
  24. No. 170 overall Mackenzie Skapski (NYR) 21gp, 2.56 .910
  25. No. 172 overall Antoine Bibeau (TOR) 16gp, 2.44 .919
  26. No. 186 overall Joel Vermin (TB) 34gp, 7-8-15
  27. No. 190 overall Brendan Kichton (WPG) 31gp, 3-7-10
  28. No. 206 overall MacKenzie Weegar (FLA) 19gp, 1-4-5

I’d also suggest a player like Anton Slepyshev might benefit from a few months in a league lower than the AHL. Will this ever happen again? I don’t think so. Would it benefit these players? I think it might, meaning a savings of millions for NHL teams. There are a bunch from the 2012 draft too AND a Arizona Fall League or CPHL league would allow teams to sign junior free agents and put them there too.

Here are the original CPHL rules from the mid-sixites:

The NHL developed a second minor league, the CPHL (Central Professional Hockey League). It was a de facto development league. The clubs built all kinds of roster requirements (each club carried only 15 players and 10 of those had to be under 23) in order to fast track the cream of each organization to a higher tier. The result was a much better average in terms of developing young talent, as these kids had somewhere to go once they turned pro. Source

TONIGHT’S GAME

Not much to say, I’m going to enjoy Jeff Petry in his final games as an Oiler and wonder just how bad Martin Marincin must be in OKC (because if he can’t play over Nikitin it must be awful).

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307 Responses to "OILERS AT PANTHERS G46, 2014-15"

« Older Comments
  1. Ben says:

    Well, you know what they say, Buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo.

  2. russ99 says:

    Yeah, ugly penalty by Hall, can’t do that in the third period of a tight game.

    Hope it doesn’t come back to bite us,

  3. oliveoilers says:

    Lowetide:
    Matt Hendricks has been so much better than I thought he’d be. Veteran players, man.

    Ference is a veteran.

  4. RicaGreaser says:

    Lowetide:
    That was aNOTHER selfish penalty by Hall.

    Fixed that for you.

  5. russ99 says:

    We’re bad enough where we shouldn’t need to worry about a top 3 pick.

    That said, I’d really love to see us pull this one out. Tough road game against a solid keeper.

  6. Suntory Hanzo says:

    Jultz is gonna Jultz

    hallsy’s gonna Haul

  7. Suntory Hanzo says:

    Oilers doing everything possible to try and lose this game

  8. russ99 says:

    I’ll take that road Bettman point, but a winner would be even nicer.

  9. Zelepukin says:

    Poo just laying the spear down on that last back check in the offensive zone. No good reason to do so, other than Pouliot gonna Poo.

  10. Lowetide says:

    Oilers get a point. One thing I hope Nelson institutes is an aggressive start in OT for the Oilers. Hitchcock tries to knife the other team within 30 seconds.

  11. Suntory Hanzo says:

    Panthers easily have the ugliest jerseys in the league. How do you screw up a red jersey?

  12. striatic says:

    Suntory Hanzo:
    How do you screw up a red jersey?

    you add yellow.

  13. Suntory Hanzo says:

    I’m seeing Ek blad tonight.

  14. russ99 says:

    Suntory Hanzo,

    I think they’re the last team with the Reebok “pajama paterm”. They are due for a change.

  15. Tom Benjamin says:

    G Money:

    The statement is and was pretty much always the same: shot metrics are the single best predictor that we have of the long term ability of a team.Better than points.Better than standings. Better than goal differential.But “best” means neither perfect nor infallible, not even close.

    Fair enough although I doubt you understand my position.

    Meanwhile the rest of us continue to wonder which players (current, future, trades, signings) might be valuable to the Oilers, and stats help.

    I call bullshit. Fenwick close may be the best imperfect predictor of future team performance, but that does not mean you can arbitrarily divide shots among individuals and say you are objectively evaluating individual players. Well, you can, but you can’t pretend it is science. There is zero evidence that validates an individual corsi number.

  16. Suntory Hanzo says:

    If I didn’t know better, I would think Florida is trying to lose.

  17. russ99 says:

    Wow!!! Should have scored there.

  18. Ben says:

    That was no Yakcident!

  19. VanOil says:

    1/1 for lifetime for Yak

  20. striatic says:

    The Edmonton Oilers might be a horrible hockey team, but they were better than Florida tonight and deserved better than a shootout.

    Oh well.

  21. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Imagine that. Yak finally gets a chance and he scores. Ha. Geniuses who wouldn’t let him get a shot.

    Hamsters, Tim. Hamsters.

  22. LMHF#1 says:

    See! SEE?!?!!!!

    Why the fuck did that take so long????

  23. T0ML says:

    YYYYAAAAAK CITTYYYYY!!!!!

  24. russ99 says:

    Yak!!

  25. TemujinBC says:

    The term “owned his soul” is often used when someone gets “owned” in a video game or in a fight or competition

    Yakupov just owned Luongo’s soul here.

    Man oh man that was nice

  26. Lowetide says:

    Glad they went to Yakupov in the shootout tonight and glad he buried it.

  27. book¡je says:

    Yakupov in the shootout – Nelson is doing crazy stuff.

  28. JamesL says:

    So happy for Yak City/Dream City. Thank you, Todd Nelson.

  29. russ99 says:

    Nice win.

    Gotta say other than the whiffed long shot, Fasth was solid tonight.

  30. striatic says:

    Panthers shootout attempts were terrible.

  31. book¡je says:

    Florida coach – ” just skate up to Fasth and kind of drag the puck right into the middle of his pads, it works every time”

  32. TemujinBC says:

    Just a great shootout for Fasth. Wowsers, he just would not commit to any of the dangles or fakes.

  33. steveb12344 says:

    Lowetide:
    Glad they went to Yakupov in the shootout tonight and glad he buried it.

    As you would say….. MUUUUSIC!

  34. Suntory Hanzo says:

    Wearing my Yakupov shirt. Finally he gets a chance to try a shoutout attempt. My feed skips the goal.

    How was it?

  35. Gary says:

    Lowetide, call me crazy but wouldn’t Hendricks make a great captain? First guy to congratulate Fasth and he always seems to be talking up the bench.

  36. JamesL says:

    Rumor has it that Buffalo traded a 7th round pick to Florida for them to throw the shootout.

  37. russ99 says:

    Suntory Hanzo:
    Wearing my Yakupov shirt.Finally he gets a chance to try a shoutout attempt. My feed skips the goal.

    How was it?

    Fantastic. Faked him out of his boots.

  38. Suntory Hanzo says:

    JamesL,

    That was awesome.

  39. Pouzar says:

    No Hendricks in the S.O.?

  40. Pouzar says:

    Fasth was f^ckin pumped. Hendricks first guy there to congratulate him followed by Lander. Loved both of them tonight.

  41. oliveoilers says:

    JamesL:
    Rumor has it that Buffalo traded a 7th round pick to Florida for them to throw the shootout.

    Either that or Florida still has some residual tank left in it that initiates against other tank teams. Kind of like Highlander.

  42. Lowetide says:

    Nelson is 4-4-2 in his first 10, 10 points. I think they may hire him before the season ends.

  43. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Oilers now in 29th, out of guaranteed Eichel territory. Probably will never look back, too. Not going to fall below Buffalo again.

  44. Klima's_Bucket says:

    If you go back and watch that game you would be hard pressed to find three stops Fasth made without bobbling out a horrendous rebound.

  45. Pouzar says:

    So Jokinen does the Jokinen despite the preceding shooter doing the Jokinen?

    Even Jultz wouldn’t do that.

  46. flyfish1168 says:

    book¡je:
    Yakupov in the shootout – Nelson is doing crazy stuff.

    But he wasn’t crazy enough to put Yak out there on 5-3 PP where we really needed a shooter. The most pathetic 1 PP unit, lots of peripheral play and minimal shots.

  47. Pouzar says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”:
    Oilers now in 29th, out of guaranteed Eichel territory. Probably will never look back, too. Not going to fall below Buffalo again.

    Nope. It’s what I said a couple weeks ago. This team is not as bad as Buffalo. Forget McEichel and enjoy the odd win and think of this team with even a league half ass defensive corps. #FSN

  48. Pouzar says:

    Yak2-City with goal #2

    4-1 OKC

  49. G Money says:

    Pouzar:
    Fasth was f^ckin pumped. Hendricks first guy there to congratulate him followed by Lander. Loved both of them tonight.

    Yeah, his enthusiasm was outstanding. Pumped for Fasth, pumped for the team, and pumped for Yak.

    Man, we need 18 skaters a night who care that much.

  50. G Money says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    If you go back and watch that game you would be hard pressed to find three stops Fasth made without bobbling out a horrendous rebound.

    Fasth was definitely the second best goalie out there tonight. That one softie from the blue line was brutal, while Luongo was exccellent. But in the big picutre, Fasth wasn’t so bad that the team couldn’t overcome it for a change.

  51. russ99 says:

    flyfish1168: But he wasn’t crazy enough to put Yak out there on 5-3 PP where we really needed a shooter. The most pathetic 1 PP unit, lots of peripheral play and minimal shots.

    Not sure it would have mattered tonight considering how many odd man rushes that Luongo stifled.

  52. Lucinius says:

    Dubnyk on pace for another shut-out. Let’s see if his post-Oilers success can withstand the jinx.

  53. striatic says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”:
    Oilers now in 29th, out of guaranteed Eichel territory. Probably will never look back, too. Not going to fall below Buffalo again.

    Buffalo just wants it too bad, but I do think Edmonton finishes no higher than 29th.

    Most likely ends up with Eichel anyway.

  54. Woodguy says:

    russ99,

    Tom Benjamin,

    steveb12344,

    I put a lot of links about evidence in my post.

    If you’re interested you should go read those links.

    If you’re not interested, that’s fine, but posting stuff like “there’s no evidence” when there are mountains of it is just silly and shows a lack of knowledge of the subject rather than informed dissent.

  55. Магия 10 says:

    striatic: Buffalo just wants it too bad, but I do think Edmonton finishes no higher than 29th.

    Most likely ends up with Eichel anyway.

    I see them drafting anywhere between 1st and 5th. Coyotes will trade their other goalie if they have to.

  56. Woodguy says:

    steveb12344:
    Thing is, I’ve known for nearly 40 years of watching hockey that the team that leads in SOG will usually, but not always win the game.

    Now you’re telling me that by adding in the shots that don’t reach the net, that you can predict future Cup winners.Makes perfect sense to me.

    I pretty much showed that in my post.

    Take that information and add in SV% and SH% data and you can make excellent predictions.

  57. Магия 10 says:

    Lowetide:
    Nelson is 4-4-2 in his first 10, 10 points. I think they may hire him before the season ends.

    Just 2 wins shy of real .500. But love the arrows.

  58. JamesL says:

    Iiro the Hero with 1G-2A-3Pts tonight. What are the Oilers going to do with this guy?

  59. Woodguy says:

    steveb12344:
    Thing is, I’ve known for nearly 40 years of watching hockey that the team that leads in SOG will usually, but not always win the game.

    Now you’re telling me that by adding in the shots that don’t reach the net, that you can predict future Cup winners.Makes perfect sense to me.

    I raise your “watching 40 years of hockey” with “60 years of hockey results”

    It was one of the links at the end of my post:

    http://hockey-graphs.com/2014/01/15/nhl-history-possession-and-winning-the-stanley-cup/

  60. sliderule says:

    Lowetide,

    Did you note the heated exchange with the capitan in the third period.

    Nelson isn’t afraid of anyone on this team and won’t let veterans off hook.

  61. Pouzar says:

    This is Bonkers.

    Corey Pronman ‏@coreypronman 1h1 hour ago
    Was talk of Mitch Marner’s slow start after OCT with 16 points in first 14 games. Since then has put up 73 points in 28 games.

  62. Woodguy says:

    Gary:
    Lowetide, call me crazy but wouldn’t Hendricks make a great captain? First guy to congratulate Fasth and he always seems to be talking up the bench.

    I agree 100%.

    I know a lot of people don’t like captains who are near the end of the roster, but he’s such a tireless worker on the ice and seems to genuinely give a shit every game.

    His results (for his job) are also excellent so he can be held up as a high standard.

  63. Woodguy says:

    sliderule:
    Lowetide,

    Did you note the heated exchange with the capitan in the third period.

    Nelson isn’t afraid of anyone on this team and won’t let veterans off hook.

    Missed it, details?

    What was the play preceding the exchange?

  64. Магия 10 says:

    Steve: Now you’re telling me that by adding in the shots that don’t reach the net, that you can predict future Cup winners.Makes perfect sense to me.

    Why stop there. Let’s ignore the goals if they did not lead to wins. Better yet show me round some round 3 win before predicting Cup winners. And yet measuring possession predicts whether a team is more likely to move up a lot or down a lot the next year.

  65. Woodguy says:

    steveb12344:
    Thing is, I’ve known for nearly 40 years of watching hockey that the team that leads in SOG will usually, but not always win the game.

    Now you’re telling me that by adding in the shots that don’t reach the net, that you can predict future Cup winners.Makes perfect sense to me.

    Actually out-shooting in a single game isn’t a great predictor of who will win that game.

    This is due to score effects.

    I mention score effects in my post and put in 3 good links about it.

    Here they are:

    http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-puck-daddy/fancy-stats-164244781.html

    http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2011/3/25/2061334/frequently-asked-questions-12-score-effects

    http://nhlnumbers.com/2013/12/5/score-effects-and-you

    One of the reasons looking at data is important is because we all miss a lot of nuance when we watch and human memory is awful and makes up a lot of stuff to fill in the blanks.

  66. sliderule says:

    Магия 10,

    Marner Strome Hanifin will go 3,4,and 5..

    The oilers will most likely pick third and Marner will be best out of those three.He had 1-2 -3 pts tonite.

    Marner will end up with close to 140 pts if he keeps this up.

  67. JamesL says:

    CO apparently shopping Ryan O’Reilly. Should the Oilers kick some tires here? If so, what would you give up for him?

  68. Woodguy says:

    JamesL:
    CO apparently shopping Ryan O’Reilly. Should the Oilers kick some tires here? If so, what would you give up for him?

    Justin Schultz!!

  69. Genjutsu says:

    Woodguy,

    Thanks for your post. I think you’ve done a great job of giving people a real clear prospective on the stats. I hope everyone here reads it.

    Keep up the good work sir!

  70. G Money says:

    Woodguy:
    One of the reasons looking at data is important is because we all miss a lot of nuance when we watch and human memory is awful and makes up a lot of stuff to fill in the blanks.

    To quote Steven Novella: When someone looks at me and earnestly says, “I know what I saw,” I am fond of replying, “No you don’t.” You have a distorted and constructed memory of a distorted and constructed perception, both of which are subservient to whatever narrative your brain is operating under.

  71. flyfish1168 says:

    Woodguy: Justin Schultz!!

    I don’t know about that, I think they would want schultz and Nikitin for O Reilly.

  72. dangilitis says:

    Special request, can you please include this clip next time you want to symbolize player ineptitude?

    http://nextimpulsesports.com/2015/01/13/hockey-player-nearly-decapitates-stick/

  73. Ca$h-Money! says:

    Woodguy: Justin Schultz!!

    If anyone is going to believe Schultz is a good player its Colorado.

  74. Woodguy says:

    Genjutsu,

    Thanks!

  75. Woodguy says:

    G Money: To quote Steven Novella: When someone looks at me and earnestly says, “I know what I saw,” I am fond of replying, “No you don’t.” You have a distorted and constructed memory of a distorted and constructed perception, both of which are subservient to whatever narrative your brain is operating under.

    Exactly.

  76. Woodguy says:

    Ca$h-Money!: If anyone is going to believe Schultz is a good player its Colorado.

    Exactly.

    They’re a bit like MacT though in their love for over the hill vets.

    Schultz doesn’t quite fit the mould.

  77. wheatnoil says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”:
    Oilers now in 29th, out of guaranteed Eichel territory. Probably will never look back, too. Not going to fall below Buffalo again.

    Aren’t they still in 30th? They’re tied with Buffalo but have fewer wins, no?

  78. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy,

    That was a great post on your blog.

    I had a couple of spreadsheets over the last two years with SAF and all the teams.

    I just deleted them and gonna bookmark that post for easy reference.

    Great job. Keep em coming.

  79. Adam Wu says:

    So…

    Now that Yak is a blazing 100% in the SO, the numbers will be there to back up using him more in shoot outs!

    Right?

    Right?!

  80. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk,

    Thanks.

    I appreciate your contributions here a lot.

    Especially in regards to shot quality

  81. Hammers says:

    Woodguy: Justin Schultz!!

    Great idea but then we end up 26th and win the lottery . McT gets the 1st pick and next year we have Mcdavid , RNH , ROR , Leon , Gordon & Lander and everyone bitches we have to many centers . The joy of being a G.M.

  82. oliveoilers says:

    G Money: To quote Steven Novella: When someone looks at me and earnestly says, “I know what I saw,” I am fond of replying, “No you don’t.” You have a distorted and constructed memory of a distorted and constructed perception, both of which are subservient to whatever narrative your brain is operating under.

    How apt that his name is Novella! Does he know that his name is now used by hipsters instead of ‘short story’? And here’s me thinking it was a bastard child of the word ‘novel’.

  83. Lowetide says:

    Hammers: Great idea but then we end up 26th and win the lottery . McTgets the 1st pick and next year we have Mcdavid , RNH , ROR , Leon , Gordon & Landerand everyone bitches we have to many centers . The joy of being a G.M.

    If ONE damn person ever complains about the Oilers having too many centers—from here until the end of time—that person needs to be shot and pissed upon.

  84. oliveoilers says:

    Hammers: Great idea but then we end up 26th and win the lottery . McTgets the 1st pick and next year we have Mcdavid , RNH , ROR , Leon , Gordon & Landerand everyone bitches we have to many centers . The joy of being a G.M.

    And we still have secret agent NN and TCAF.

  85. G Money says:

    oliveoilers: How apt that his name is Novella!Does he know that his name is now used by hipsters instead of ‘short story’?And here’s me thinking it was a bastard child of the word ‘novel’.

    Probably mostly fiction too. Like “Oilers in the Playoffs”.

  86. Rondo says:

    Corey Pronman @coreypronman · 3h 3 hours ago
    Was talk of Mitch Marner’s slow start after OCT with 16 points in first 14 games. Since then has put up 73 points in 28 games.

  87. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Rondo,

    I believe he went pointless his first 8 games. Since then, he is at 90pts in 32 games.

  88. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    wheatnoil,

    No, Oilers have more Regulation or OT wins than Buffalo. That’s the tiebreaker.

  89. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    Hammers: bitches we have to many centers

    Bitching about having two centers, and too many centers, are two very different bitches.

  90. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: If ONE damn person ever complains about the Oilers having too many centers—from here until the end of time—that person needs to be shot and pissed upon.

    Well they won’t have to bitch about drafting too many centers because they’re taking Crouse 5th overall with Marner on the board.

  91. Capitalist says:

    Tom Benjamin: I call bullshit. Fenwick close may be the best imperfect predictor of future team performance, but that does not mean you can arbitrarily divide shots among individuals and say you are objectively evaluating individual players. Well, you can, but you can’t pretend it is science. There is zero evidence that validates an individual corsi number.

    That’s not gonna go over well around here, where FapStats ™ are pretty much all Oiler fan has to hang on to after 25 years of futility.

  92. Capitalist says:

    Woodguy can’t even tell the difference between predictive models and data mining.
    And when the fapstats don’t match the result, it’s written off as ‘luck’
    But then, this is a guy who regularly gives gambling advice around here. Let’s just say that anybody who thinks gambling is smart or can be a net gain over the long haul either:
    A) owns a casino
    B) is deluded or brain damaged.

  93. Capitalist says:

    Here’s some actual numbers: 30, 30, 29, 24, 28 and probably 30.

    When you’re stuck cheering for The World’s Worst Sports Franchise ™ you have to have something to keep yourself interested, even if it’s a bunch of nonsense based on bogus data, fairy tales and faint hopes, sorta like poor people clinging to thoughts of Baby Jeebus.

  94. 719 says:

    Ca$h-Money!: If anyone is going to believe Schultz is a good player its Colorado.

    Yes, they will think they can turn him around like they did Johnson! ROR please, I believe he would be the perfect center for our team.

    As for having too many centers, centers can play wings, but the Hall experiment shows that wings can rarely play center. Draisatl and our lottery pick should be learning the game at the wings first, and the defensive side FIRST for a change.

  95. till_horcoff_is_coach says:

    Capitalist,

    So we agree then that Colorado falling so low this year after first in their conference last year is nothing short of stunning.
    We agree no one could have seen Tor missing the playoffs last year despite their midway standings.
    We agree the NYI rise this year is equally surprising and that Calgary will surely be in the playoff race in April.

    I just want to make sure we are on the same page that anything beyond standings is hogwash, and anything that would have predicted the above happening is clearly just creating a narrative.

    Let’s also agree the best way to have a discussion is to make derogatory claims and character attacks.

    Actually, now that I think of it, maybe – just maybe – you may be the one out of line here. Whoa, crazy thought I know, but something worth chewing on.

  96. Heinz 57 says:

    Capitalist:
    But then, this is a guy who regularly gives gambling advice around here. Let’s just say that anybody who thinks gambling is smart or can be a net gain over the long haul either:
    A) owns a casino
    B) is deluded or brain damaged.

    You can say that, but you’d be wrong. There are a small number of individuals who make serious coin off sports betting, who are neither of the above. I would dig the name of one such person up, but search for “sports betting X” on Google is guaranteed not to find what you’re looking for. You need a minimum of “”sports betting X Y” and “Y” is a bit fuzzy this morning in my aging memory banks, so we’ll make do with this one, presently slathered in a mountain of Google juice, and see where it goes:

    Some clever algorithms: Follow Wired Twitter Facebook RSS Wall Street Firm Uses Algorithms to Make Sports Betting Like Stock Trading

    Some illegal side action: INSIDE GAMING: $5.5 million fine keeps CG alive

    An indecent proposal: Lawyer for casino, sports books says all Olympic events should be open for betting in Nevada

    Is nothing sacred? Sheesh, pretty soon we’ll have betting on royal weddings (and their clients will become known as wed betters).

    This last item cracks me up for another reason as well, as it entails (or ought to) determining which Olympic events qualify as sports and which constitute politics: laws governing prediction markets are different that those governing sports betting.

    Concerning that small fine: records are made to be broken.

    In any case, the larger point is that it is possible to make a good living as a betting professional. Take Adam Meyer, who is prominent in the first link:

    Sports betting pro Adam Meyer charged in $25 million scam

    A) owns a casino
    B) is deluded or brain damaged
    C) hawks overpriced tips BOTOX brains who inhabit the front page of Variety
    D) employs men to mug his clients at gun point (as Meyer is purported to have done)
    E) sets up offshore “third-party” bookmakers to front his own operations

    I grant you that (E) is not so different than owning your own casino, if exotic incorporation papers and an IP address from far away are considered sufficient.

    ———

    Here’s another guy mentioned in the first link:

    Think You Could Be A Professional Gambler? Here’s What It’s Actually Like

    The books use the professional betters to help balance their

    “Half the fun is winning, half is beating the number,” he says. “You know what I love? Beads of sweat running down bookmakers’ faces.”

    The article explains why some professional betters can make a living at this.

    When oddsmakers post point spreads on games, they do so with the expectation that a given line will attract a similar amount of action on both teams (it’s often said the point spread is “the great equalizer”). In that scenario, sports books will make their money on the “vigorish” or “vig” (the commission they collect on wagers) and not rely on the precarious and unpredictable balance of gamblers’ wins and losses. However, it seldom plays out that way, meaning sports books are forced to adjust lines when one side starts to receive a greater chunk of the money being bet.

    In this situation, the book is giving up profit—to the fastest sharp who jumps on the opportunity—in order to reduce exposure.

    Every sports franchise has a Woodguy sufficiently obsessed with one team to spot some of these opportunities when they arise. I’m pretty sure the Casinos are wired up to detect a sudden influx of Woodguy money on one side of a wager, then they adjust their lines accordingly. (The Casinos sure wouldn’t want to have to actually employ all this obsession year round for every professional sports franchise.)

    A) owns a casino
    B) is deluded or brain damaged
    C) hawks overpriced tips to BOTOX brains who inhabit the front page of Variety
    D) employs men to mug his clients at gun point (as Meyer is purported to have done)
    E) sets up offshore “third-party” bookmakers to front his own operations
    F) is good at spotting a fleeting proposition as the books settle their lines
    G) has gleaned local knowledge that’s just too painful for the wonks in Vegas to sift through their own fingers

    The bottom line here, Horatio, is that you now owe Woodguy an apology for painting him with your short brush.

    ———

    Here’s the real reason why Woodguy’s hobby is demented:

    “This will be fun to watch, getting thrown outta here,” he says, explaining that a lot of times his bets will be rejected by sports books simply because they don’t want to get beat by him. “What they do is absolutely illegal. They let you bet bad numbers but won’t let you bet good ones.”

    The adversary doesn’t even play by their own official rules when it doesn’t suit them. By the time you take into account one turd after another, this whole business of being the smartest man in your very own Cadillac Escalade loses it’s luster.

    In an era when advanced methods of predicting game outcomes — and opportunities to risk money on said outcomes — are more available than ever online, almost anyone can pretend to be a pro gambler. Krackomberger is actually living that dream.

    Well, sort of. “I mostly hate Las Vegas; everything is wrong here,” he says. “They promote all the wrong values. But hey, I have to make a living, and the only place I can make a living legally is here.”

    He allows himself a split second to ponder that reality before throwing the car into gear and pointing it toward the Las Vegas Expressway.

  97. book¡je says:

    LT – I hope someday we see your balance picture, but if you ever need a ‘luck’ picture, I guarantee that nothing could be better than this one.

    http://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northwest-news/index.ssf/2015/01/interstate_84_semi-truck_crash_1.html

  98. Heinz 57 says:

    I’m going to add a tiny postscript to that post (currently in the moderation queue for having too much orange-text click bait).

    At some point long ago, Google stopped serving me ads, when I browse from my normal FF. When I switch to Chrome on the same system (without logging into my Google account) all the ads come back again.

    At circa 200 Google searches per day for nearly fifteen years now, I must be closing in on personally breaking the million search threshold.

    It costs real money to serve up ads one million times and they did the math on my click-through percentage and decided “hmm, not this one”.

    Here’s the thing. My search history (not mine alone, but mine combined with all the other people similar to myself) offers real value to Google when they assess the quality of their search results. I’m sure I’ve been coloured as a person with a certain relationship to knowledge. They can be pretty sure that when I click on a result from a results set that the result is somehow distinguished (though it might well be for its inherent ridiculousness). My click-through rate on keyword spam farms is extremely low.

    They can also observe my occasional roiling frustration when it ends by adding seven “-this -that -and -the -other -thing -s” to a query that isn’t getting me what I want.

    So far as Google is concerned, I’m a “quality” signal at large and not a sheep to be fleeced through the advertising mechanism.

    I’m pretty sure this small luxury of not seeing any ads is available to anyone whose Google search history is sustained over many years and threatens to break into seven figures. Somehow I suspect the size of this group will never become large enough to threaten their core revenue stream.

  99. PhrankLee says:

    In two games for the Wild

    Devan Dubnyk:

    .977 SV% and a 0.50 GAA.

    And an assist!

  100. Yeti says:

    Capitalist,

    95% of the people who read this blog are currently wondering whether it is your imbecilic stupidity or your complete lack of class and dignity that most defines your character. The other 5% are wondering how drunk you must have been.

  101. oliveoilers says:

    Homer Simpson when asked how he was sure he could beat the Vegas odds: “Because I’ve got what no other gambler in the world has; A system!”

    Back in the North Yorkshire village where Mum and Dad now live, one of the locals was a professional gambler. He came from money, old money, and his son played Rugby Union for England. In fact all three of his sons played rugby at the professional level. (They actually thought I was crazy playing hockey at even the lowest amateur level, but beer league in Med Hat can be rough for a Brit.) But I digress.

    The only way he could make a living at it was to bet with large amounts on sure fire things and only take a chance once in a while. His passion is the horses. So a horse could still have odds of 2-1on, which means for every two pounds or dollars you bet, you only get one pound or dollar, plus your stake, returned. $200,000 gets you $100,000 plus your $200,000. The reverse is true if the odds are simply 2-1. Ironic that the only thing that works is to beat the system before you can beat the system.

    On the other end of the scale was my Grandfather, who used to do 5p accumulators. This is where you start out with a 5p or c bet on the first horse race of the day. If you won or placed, your winnings went on to the next race, and so on. This truly did make millionaires of some, but it was like winning the lottery. Some bookies would guarantee a percentage payout even if you lost, just to keep the old boys gambling. I was usually sent at the age of 8, with my brother, 6, sometimes to the local Ladbrokes (you still had to be 18 to enter, but this is local England, everyone knows everyone) sometimes to a non-descript house where we would always be given 20p for sweets by the gruff working men who frequented these places. As I got older, it dawned on me that not so much actual gambling was done, more the unspoken desire for the company of other working class men.

    I myself have never been bitten by the bug, but I’ve seen it. I’ve seen guys throw car keys on the table in a game of ‘Shoot’ (High/Low, one card against one person). I’ve seen a friend pump at least $1000 night after night into VLTs. I enjoy going to the races, both horse and dog when I’m back in the UK. It can be an enjoyable night out, and if you’re careful, a free one. I often think that the worst thing that can happen to a chronic gambler is to win. Then all is forgiven, the beating of the odds is vindicated, false patterns are established and “I told ya so”s abound. Thus the cycle is begun again.

    The moral of the story is that gambling is great as long as you win.

  102. Woodguy says:

    Capitalist:
    Woodguy can’t even tell the difference between predictive models and data mining.
    And when the fapstats don’t match the result, it’s written off as ‘luck’
    But then, this is a guy who regularly gives gambling advice around here. Let’s just say that anybody who thinks gambling is smart or can be a net gain over the long haul either:
    A) owns a casino
    B) is deluded or brain damaged.

    I find it funny that all of the attacks on my piece have nothing to do with the piece.

    I showed that NHL points standings are not a good predictor of who wins the Conference Finals, or at the very least not as good as SAF. No one who attacks me seems to get this.

    I actually showed how most of the teams who were “lucky” or “unlucky” were actually just doing what would be expected….except when goalies play above .935 for long stretches or below .900 for long stretches.

    As for the gambling, your opinion is obviously one that thinks sports betting is like slots or tables games where you play against the house and you can never win long term because the game is set up that way.

    This isn’t correct.

    The crux of sports betting is that books try to set a line that will bring in 50% action on each side and make their money on the spread in odds offered on each side. The vig.

    This is similar to poker where the casino makes their money on the rake and really do not care who wins any particular pot.

    I state clearly that trying to figure out who will win individual games is very tough as small samples are subject to all kinds of variance and goalies steal (or lose) games all the time.

    Longer bets however can be profitable if the book puts out lines that just don’t jibe with the information.

    The famous Over/Under on Leafs regular season point totals last year was a good example. The book (bodog) pulled the line in under a day after they got a pile of action on the under side.

    The Leafs finished about 10pts below the set line.

    Playoff betting is similar. Last year the better Fenwick teams won 70% of the playoff match ups.

    Basically your post is inaccurate, poorly written, and just not smart.

    Thank you for letting us have a good view of your intellect, it will help me skip over your posts in the future.

  103. book¡je says:

    I’m not sure who ‘capitalist’ is, but the tone (and sheer ignorance) of his comments suggest that he isn’t a regular here. I wouldn’t give him too much attention as I suspect he is a troll.

  104. Woodguy says:

    Woodguy : *writes post with “shot attempt data won’t predict who will win games” in the title*

    Idiots: “Hey Woodguy, you can’t predict games you moron!”

    Woodguy: *weeps for the future and prays to the god of reading comprehension*

  105. Heinz 57 says:

    book¡je:
    I hope someday we see your balance picture, but if you ever need a ‘luck’ picture, I guarantee that nothing could be better than this one.

    That’s the school of “luck” which causes Butch Coolidge to return to his appartment to fetch his “lucky” watch.

    Perhaps a better trope is Cosmic Plaything, in which your karma rolls over, and then rolls over again, and “miraculously” comes up again on all four tires.

    It all depends on your suspension kit. Your “unluck” needs to be of sufficient magnitude to ensure a full rotation.

    Buttered toast phenomenon

    Despite all we know, people have yet to learn how to A) build taller tables, or B) butter their toast on the underside.

    Billy Beane: “I know it’s a metaphor.”

  106. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy:
    Woodguy : *writes post with “shot attempt data won’t predict who will win games” in the title*

    Idiots: “Hey Woodguy, you can’t predict games you moron!”

    Woodguy: *weeps for the future and prays to the god of reading comprehension*

    Yeah well, I didn’t even know you owned a casino until this morning!

  107. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: Yeah well, I didn’t even know you owned a casino until this morning!

    I try to keep that a secret.

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