THE NELSON TOUCH

We’re starting to see what Todd Nelson’s doing with this Oilers team and with a 4-4-2 record I’d say we should start documenting things just in case he returns as head coach next season. Today we’re going to have a look at the young forwards, their boxcars for the season and what their usage under Nelson might tell us.

OILERS’ FORWARDS PLAYER CARDS 2014-15

PLAYER BOXCARS CORSI FOR % OZ STARTS 5X5 PER 60 5×4 PER 60
DEREK ROY 10, 2-5-7 50.3 63.2 2.01 3.33
BENOIT POULIOT 28, 10-5-15 49.7 56.1 1.98 2.93
TAYLOR HALL 40, 11-18-29 51.0 57.8 1.97 2.83
RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS 44, 11-16-27 50.9 59.1 1.89 1.51
JORDAN EBERLE 45, 12-16-28 51.6 61.2 1.70 4.02
MATT HENDRICKS 41, 6-5-11 46.9 18.1 1.46 0.00
TEDDY PURCELL 46, 5-14-19 51.8 57.0 1.25 4.00
ROB KLINKHAMMER 7, 0-1-1 51.7 45.9 1.02 0.00
MATT FRASER 9, 2-1-3 47.7 50.9 0.87 6.81
BOYD GORDON 41, 5-4-9 43.5 18.5 0.85 2.91
NAIL YAKUPOV 46, 5-6-11 45.8 65.5 0.85 1.93
ANTON LANDER 9, 0-3-3 42.7 44.9 0.59 9.44
LUKE GAZDIC 14, 0-0-0 44.4 64.3 0.00 0.00

From here it looks like Nelson has most of three lines figured  out:

  • Hall—Nuge—Eberle
  • Pouliot—Roy—Yakupov
  • Hendricks—Gordon—Klinkhammer
  • Fraser—Lander—Purcell

With Purcell (whose speed is an issue but he can do some things) moving up and down the lineup as needed. He’s definitely in a utility role (PK, PP, EV) but has done well in the discipline and is just about the end of the offense (like a No. 7 hitter) on the current Oilers. The young forwards Nelson is giving minutes to currently are of considerable interest to me. Why? They’re getting PP time (and having success) and they are absolutely getting icetime (no 4 minute nights for a week here)—Nelson is giving them at-bats and a full chance.

NELSON’S HANDING OF HIS YOUNG FORWARDS SINCE JAN 1

PLAYER BOXCARS TOI SHOTS
NAIL YAKUPOV 8gp, 1-1-2 13:51 18
MATT FRASER 7gp, 1-1-2 11:32 12
ANTON LANDER 8gp, 0-3-3 13:10 6

I think Nelson trusts Lander in all situations (makes sense, they know each other well) he likes Fraser’s shot and may feel with Perron gone there’s an opening for a slower skill forward with hands. He may also be fascinated with the gap between Yakupov’s promise and delivery, or the club may be trying to get Yakupov’s value up before they trade him (NYC? Arizona?).

If I had to pick one of the three to hang around and spend a few years as an Oiler? I’ll go with Anton Lander. He should be able to play a checking role (center or wing) and won’t cost a lot. Fraser is a guy with a very important skill (first-shot scorer) and we should have a good idea by spring if he’s anything (he won’t get 500 at-bats but could get 250). Nail’s about 1200 at-bats into his NHL career and his per 82GP totals (17-18-35) aren’t going to get him to $6 million any time soon. The relationship between the Oilers and the player has never been Hall—Eberle strong and frankly I don’t know if the club can afford to spend another year on his development. These last 40 games are huge for Nail and if he’s getting 18 shots per 8 games surely to every God that’s prayed to some of those cannons have to go in. I bet Nail gets a more prominent role on the power play soon, either as a pump and dump or as an astute use of available talent.

I remain hopeful Yakupov emerges as a strong NHL player but at this point we should brace ourselves for an exit. The movie is almost over and this hasn’t looked like a happy ending since Ralph fired up the Skype.

marner

2015 TOP 10

  1. (1) C Connor McDavid, Erie Otters (OHL) 22gp, 19-38-57 (2.59)
  2. (2) C Jack Eichel, Boston U (NCAA) 19gp, 10-22-32 (1.68)
  3. (5) R Mitch Marner, London Knights (OHL) 41gp, 33-53-86 (2.10)
  4. (4) C Dylan Strome, Erie Otters (OHL) 42gp, 28-49-77 (1.83)
  5. (3) D Noah Hanifin, Boston College (NCAA) 21gp, 3-9-12 (0.57)
  6. (10) D Oliver Kylington, Farjestad (SHL) 13gp, 3-3-6 (0.46)
  7. (6) D Zach Werenski, Michigan (NCAA). 18gp, 3-12-15 (0.83)
  8. (9) R Mikko Rantanen, TPS Turku (SML). 35gp, 3-11-14 (0.40)
  9. (11) D Ivan Provorov, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL) 39gp, 11-40-51 (1.31)
  10. (17) Evgeni Svechnikov, Cape Breton Screaming Eagles (QMJHL). 32gp, 16-30-46 (1.44)

This is a crazy good draft (my current top 30 is here) and this is a vital one for the Oilers. If they keep the Penguins pick, and win the lottery, Ed Snider would erupt like Mt. Saint Helen’s and the Oilers could walk away with (say) Connor McDavid, Jake DeBrusk and Mitchell Vande Sompel.

  • Cody Nickolet on Debrusk: The son of Louie has a good frame, has power to his skating game, shows creative puck distribution skill while also possessing a goal-scorers mentality. He’s currently up over a point-per-game this year after posting 39 points in 72 games last season. I see DeBrusk as a solid pick in the 40-45th overall range but wouldn’t be shocked if some teams like him as a late 1st rounder. Source
  • Brock Otten on Vande Sompel: Vande Sompel’s defensive positioning is outstanding and it helps to alleviate the concerns his lack of size may generate. Because he’s constantly moving his feet and anticipates the play so well, he’s not putting himself in many positions where he’s susceptible of being out muscled. And when he’s able to make a good play defensively, he uses his great speed to get the puck up ice quickly. Whether it be in transition, or on the power play, Vande Sompel’s head for the game in the offensive end is on display. I’m not usually a fan of rating undersized defenseman highly, but Vande Sompel has definitely won me over. Source

 EARLY LOOK AT 2015-16 LINEUP

The Oilers will likely use that high first-round selection on a center and that may move Leon to LW. What does that mean? It could mean the Oilers will have three scoring lines (hahahaaha) but more likely we’re going to see another year devoted to kids batting high in the lineup:

  • Hall—Nuge—Eberle
  • Pouliot—Strome—Yakupov
  • Draisaitl—Roy—Purcell
  • Hendricks—Gordon—Klinkhammer
  • Klefbom—Fayne
  • Ference—Schultz
  • Nurse—Nikitin

Of course there will be mammoth changes but I’m fairly certain we can write Nurse, Draisaitl and Strone in pen for the start of the season. Balance does not exist in the Oilers playbook, friends.

remick

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN 1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Scott Burnside, ESPN. Perron in Pittsburgh and how about those Islanders?
  • Jeff Hauser, Radio Hauser. NFL weekend included a classic first game and a deflating second one. We’ll talk.
  • Dennis King, Oilogosphere Icon. Oilers at the deadline, NFL weekend, Nats get another starting pitcher.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide_ on twitter. Talk soon!

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186 Responses to "THE NELSON TOUCH"

  1. MightyOil1 says:

    Nice recap Lowetide, I agree with all of it, but this line is so depressing:

    “Of course there will be mammoth changes but I’m fairly certain we can write Nurse, Draisaitl and Strone in pen for the start of the season. Balance does not exist in the Oilers playbook, friends.”

  2. Ca$h-Money! says:

    Why would Drai be behind Strome on the depth chart next year? Long term maybe but if you are going to shelter someone on a depth line on the wing, wouldn’t it be the 18 year old? Didn’t we learn that lesson… like 2 weeks ago?

  3. GCW_69 says:

    Hall—Nuge—Eberle
    Perron—Roy—Yakupov
    Hendricks—Gordon—Klinkhammer
    Fraser—Lander—Purcell

    I think you mean Pouliot, not Perron.

  4. John Chambers says:

    Thing about Nail – he’s 21.

    Let’s look at other 20-22-year olds around the league:

    Galchenyuk is top of the pops – plays on a great team and has 44 gp 11-18-29. 2012 pick

    Filip Forsberg (who I doubted until recently) is tearing it up too – 15-24-39. 2012 pick like Yak

    The more ‘normalized’ performers in the age category include:
    Jonathan Huberdeau is a good comparable. His draft +3 season was a mild disaster, and in draft +4 he’s only 8-17-25

    Tomas Hertl shot the lights out last year, but is only 46gp 8-8-16. Another 2012 pick.

    Ryan Strome is a gem that took an appropriate time to bud after the 2011 draft. His draft +3 season saw boxcars of 37gp 7-11-18, not out of the ballpark from Yakupov.

    In conclusion – Yakupov is struggling, but is getting good looks in the world’s best league. Would his stats look better if he had been properly mentored with a veteran centre? Almost certainly? Are his numbers that far off from former highly-touted picks like Huberdeau, Strome, Hertl, etc? They really aren’t.

    Patience. Give the kid a vet centre. He’s got the talent to deliver and is just stepping into the age where he likely will.

  5. GCW_69 says:

    Ca$h-Money!: Didn’t we learn that lesson… like 2 weeks ago?

    The Oilers don’t learn lessons.

  6. John Chambers says:

    On Buffalo’s rebuild:

    They’re certain to draft McEichel, so good for them. Thing is they began their planned re-build with two defensemen – Ristolainen and Zadorov.

    And rather than insert Reinhart into the lineup for a lost season, they’re letting him develop in the WHL. Next year he’ll play RW on a soft minutes line beside one of the centre phenoms and will be a Calder contender.

    Buffalo has 3 first round selections this season, obtained by mortgaging off Vanek and Miller, and a pair from 2013 which they obtained from the trade of Jason Pominville.

    It’s like they’ve planned a tear-down re-build, but for it to only last a short period of time, and focused on building on defense and down the middle. Weird how that works.

  7. zatch says:

    Seeing more than 1 of Nikitin, Jultz and Ference on an opening night roster makes my blood boil.

    What goes on in the heads of Oilers managment? Why do they make so many elementary mistakes over and over? Is it just straight stupidity and incompetence? Groupthink? Executive meddling? I don’t even know. The entire league mocks them, and still they stay the course. I couldn’t do what they do. The shame would kill me. I have no expectations for this group, and they still fail to meet them.

  8. Jesse says:

    Can anyone remember the last time the Oilers did any kind of a pump and dump? Honest question.

    It seems to me that once they decide they’re going to trade someone, they have to decide that they don’t like the player or something. Perron wasn’t exactly showcased was he? Paajarvi? Certainly not that I recall.

  9. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Add 4 goal posts for Nail that don’t count as shots on goal and we are up to 22 shots on goal in 8 games. He’s finding his confidence slowly, but we’ve seen this before like that time Eakins and he sat down to eat a cupcake early this year.

    Let’s face it, Yak is a project, but whichever team sticks it out with him could reap some rewards down the line. He may never become the best player of his draft class. Maybe Galchenyuk, Forsberg keep going and he will never catch them. But he has potential to be good.

    I disagree that the Oilers can’t wait another year for his development. This team is not a playoff team next year anyway so they can wait.

    I fear and suspect you are right with regards to Draisaitl and Nurse on the squad next year, but in my mind they should 100% spend the entire season in the AHL, or the Oilers should plan as though that will be the case. Shocking concept, I know, but if they actually perform so damn well in the AHL that they force their way onto the roster, a trade can be made to accommodate them.

    As for Strome or whoever it is that they draft cracking the opening day roster, I am going to pray to the Gords that even these guys aren’t THAT stupid.

  10. Jordan says:

    I don’t have any issues with Nelson specifically – I think he’s a fine coach, and will likely be a good NHL option moving forwards. Still don’t know if his record is his own doing or small sample size PDO spike – overall the team has not looked significantly different to me (other than of course the personnel changes).

    Re: Petry
    Bruce Garrioch: Teams that have spoken with Edmonton GM Craig MacTavish are being told he doesn’t want to do much
    Jim Matheson: Miriad or rumours surrounding Jeff Petry moving on from being an Oiler
    Mixed messages about his future are a good thing. Any signs he might stay are good for the Org.

    I’m starting to wonder if Mgmt. simply refuses to sign extension mid-season. Seriously – when was the last time they did one mid-season?

    Re: Yakupov
    I like what I’ve seen from him. He’s growing into a hardworking player who has some high-end skills. I’m not against trading him in a package for the best player in the deal, but that’s the only circumstance I consider. Hope he meets his potential!

    2015-16 Lineup
    If that’s what we start the season with on D, I think I may preemptively Bet money against the Oilers ever game next season. Who’s the phenom we’ll be watching for at the top of the 2016 draft class?

  11. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    John Chambers,

    Yes, Risto, Zadorov, Pysyk on the back end. Young goalies with potential in Enroth and Neuvirth. All before they added Reinhart up front and likely a generational forward to come this year, plus other pieces.

    The Buffalo strategy for rebuilding is, in my opinion, the correct one. We’ll see if it works out, but that template is the Chicago template. The Oilers’ template will henceforth be known as the Oilers’ template, and be cited as an example of how to butcher a rebuild, or call it the hamster method.

  12. MightyOil1 says:

    zatch: Seeing more than 1 of Nikitin, Jultz and Ference on an opening night roster makes my blood boil.What goes on in the heads of Oilers managment? Why do they make so many elementary mistakes over and over? Is it just straight stupidity and incompetence? Groupthink? Executive meddling? I don’t even know. The entire league mocks them, and still they stay the course. I couldn’t do what they do. The shame would kill me. I have no expectations for this group, and they still fail to meet them.

    Here, here…..
    I can imagine Oiler Management on the hot seat filming an episode of “Who Wants to be A Millionaire?”.

    They would be the only contestants ever to choose to ask the audience, and then disagree with the majority answer.

  13. HiddenDarts says:

    Jesse,

    A “pump and dump” implies an “ol’ switcheroo”, which also would require that Oilers management are crafty… slick even.

    They are not.

  14. HiddenDarts says:

    MightyOil1: Here, here…..
    I can imagine Oiler Management on the hot seat filming an episode of “Who Wants to be A Millionaire?”.

    They would be the only contestants ever to choose to ask the audience, and then disagree with the majority answer.

    Early goings, but post of the day for me.

  15. Pouzar says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”,

    I found it interesting that Galchenyuk told Therrien he was more comfortable on the wing. Not sure what that means for the future as far his aspirations of playing Center but interesting.

  16. supernova says:

    I have concerns about Strome.

    Maybe it’s just one persons view but I read
    “Strome plays a game similar to Joe Thorton but a softer version”
    Edmonton does not need a softer player, since joe’s knock has always been he is soft.

    This would also go against MacT saying he wants drivers, and high compete level.

    Maybe that review was not accurate on Strome but it brought flags.

  17. smellyglove says:

    Starting next year with three raw rookies in the lineup (Nurse, Drai, and Strome) is a recipe for disaster. Starting next year without an upgrade on Roy is a recipe for disaster.

    On Yakupov, I preach patience but am quickly losing faith. Previously, I’ve compared Yak to Radulov (slow development), but I’ve never looked at the underlying numbers behind that–does anyone have any thoughts on this?

    zatch,

    I picture Oiler management meetings to look something like scene in the Fuhrer’s bunker in Berlin in 1945. The Russians are at the gates, but the leadership is delusional and nepotistic and will not acknowledge the dire situation. A desperate belief in new wonder weapons (1st round draft picks) prop up the lie.

  18. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    supernova,

    I’m not saying I want Strome.

    But I take Joe Thornton on my team 100 times out of a 100, “soft” or not.
    I don’t like narratives that dismiss a terrific player like that, who has put up over 100pts and won a Hart Trophy because he failed to win a Cup. It’s a team game. I take Thornton all day. Would love him as the 2C on this team next year, in the Roy role with Yak on his wing.

  19. Pouzar says:

    Yak2 with 6 shots in yesterdays game btw. He is really is racking up the SOG lately.

  20. Pouzar says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”: supernova, I’m not saying I want Strome. But I take Joe Thornton on my team 100 times out of a 100, “soft” or not.I don’t like narratives that dismiss a terrific player like that, who has put up over 100pts and won a Hart Trophy because he failed to win a Cup. It’s a team game. I take Thornton all day. Would love him as the 2C on this team next year, in the Roy role with Yak on his wing.

    This.

    Sign as many vets as possible and let the kids percolate on the farm as long as possible.

  21. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Pouzar: The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”, I found it interesting that Galchenyuk told Therrien he was more comfortable on the wing. Not sure what that means for the future as far his aspirations of playing Center but interesting.

    Was that a recent thing? I know they’ve moved him back and forth. Forsberg is also playing wing on his line, too. Drafted as a centre.

    Funny that other teams break in their young Cs on the wing for the most part and find success. This of course doesn’t apply to Yakupov, but Draisaitl.

    NYI: Strome, Nelson on wings
    NSH: Forsberg on wing
    BOS/DAL: Seguin on wing
    MTL: Galchenyuk mostly on wing.

    Shocker, centres can easily switch to wing (Galchenyuk possibly excepted). The other way around is tougher.

    Double shocker, centre is a tough position to learn at the NHL level so break your young forwards in on the wings.

    It’s not rocket science!
    Right? Bueller? Crickets? Hamsters?

  22. Woodguy says:

    One of the favorite hobby horses of the EDM MSM is how the Oilers respond to scrums and when one of their players takes a big hit.

    According to them, all other teams come to each other’s defence and only the Oilers refrain from retaliation.

    Turns out this isn’t true.

    Most teams don’t respond and Adam Gretz of CBS sports writes about it here: http://www.cbssports.com/nhl/eye-on-hockey/24970596/how-do-teams-respond-to-dirty-hits

    Players, especially on the better teams, are conditioned to not put their team down a man in the name of revenge, toughness, gritty, hard to play against. etc.

    The NHL has changed in this regard and reporters like Mark Spector are already dinosaurs.

  23. Unicorns says:

    Hockey is something like 30% luck on the ice. The rate is probably higher in drafting outside of the top 3. Buffalo is as much lucky as smart. Detroit is still riding luck with Zetterberg and Datsyuk (not for much longer) and that Babcock turned out to be a genius coach. Chicago got lucky with Keith and Toews turning out they way they did.

    If Hall was a D, Nuge C and Yak C and covering 1OV what would the Oilers look like? Two wingers out of 3 1OV’s leaves the key positions still needing cover. Can’t win them all, but Yak’s was a crappy draft year and the best guy, a centre with size, was hurt too long to take at 1OV. It’s bad luck.

    Maybe the luck plays out better this year at the draft and some D turn out, they find a goaler. Things would be completely different. Still a shit show because Oilers, but with holes plugged things will get better despite them if they don’t make bad trades. I’m always hopeful until about end October.

  24. zatch says:

    supernova,

    What you described was a great player. Then you decided he wasn’t that great because he is “soft”. As if his goals and assists are somehow worth less. Thornton drives play.

    This whole thing confuses me. When a “gritty, hard player” scores, it does not count for 3 goals because he worked extra hard. When he makes a defensive play, the opposing team does not lose a goal, because the play was so tuff.

    Being able to play the body is a positive, but it is secondary or tertiary. The object is to score more goals than your opponents. The manner is unimportant. Things that are not goal scoring and prevention are worth a small fraction of scoring and defence ability. In Canada, too many people reverse it, and decide that being hard and tough and gritty are the most vital things, and talent and scoring are secondary.

  25. MightyOil1 says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”: supernova, I’m not saying I want Strome. But I take Joe Thornton on my team 100 times out of a 100, “soft” or not.I don’t like narratives that dismiss a terrific player like that, who has put up over 100pts and won a Hart Trophy because he failed to win a Cup. It’s a team game. I take Thornton all day. Would love him as the 2C on this team next year, in the Roy role with Yak on his wing.

    Yes….if narrative pushes Jumbo Joe out of SJ, you take him all day / everyday.

    I always find this funny, but if a rookie centre put up 60 points that would be an amazing season.

    If a vet like Joe put up 60 points it would be a disaster season. Yet 60 points = 60 points.

  26. jp says:

    Jesse:
    Can anyone remember the last time the Oilers did any kind of a pump and dump? Honest question.

    It seems to me that once they decide they’re going to trade someone, they have to decide that they don’t like the player or something. Perron wasn’t exactly showcased was he? Paajarvi? Certainly not that I recall.

    You’re completely right. The Oilers typically drive the players value into the ground before sending them away. More a “dive and dump” than a “pump and dump”.

  27. Rondo says:

    If Oilers do choose Mitch Marner , can you imagine the day when he does not look good right away comments. Oilers pick a small winger.

  28. Clay says:

    Lander is a powerplay witch!

  29. slopitch says:

    If thats the Oilers D and the Oilers dont get McDavid or Eichel, then trade the pick (or Hall) for the best available D. That D is atrocious and I’d rather attempt balance then let the Oilers develop more kids in quicksand.

    Huberadeau is a good comp for Yak. Huberadeau’s numbers look bad this year but his ONICE shooting % was among the lowest in the league for the first 30 games. He’s shooting the puck more and the offense is coming. Yak is also among the leagues worst in ONICE shooting % and while he does have a ton of at bats, most teams wouldnt have given them to him. I agree the next 40 games is key.

  30. Hockey News: Reto Berra Scores; Henrik Zetterberg Hat Trick says:

    […] Is Todd Nelson making a difference in Edmonton? [Lowetide] […]

  31. Klima's_Bucket says:

    John Chambers,

    13 points in his last 13 games for Huberdeau.
    Hope Yak can pull that off sometime.

  32. John Chambers says:

    The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL":
    John Chambers,

    Yes, Risto, Zadorov, Pysyk on the back end. Young goalies with potential in Enroth and Neuvirth. Allbefore they added Reinhart up front and likely a generational forward to come this year, plus other pieces.

    The Buffalo strategy for rebuilding is, in my opinion, the correct one. We’ll see if it works out, but that template is the Chicago template. The Oilers’ template will henceforth be known as the Oilers’ template, and be cited as an example of how to butcher a rebuild, or call it the hamster method.

    Let’s not forget that the Chicago Blackhawks missed the playoffs for a solid decade. They wasted a #3 OV on Cam Barker.

    Their rebuild didn’t start with Toews and Kane. It started much prior and fell flat on its face after the team added veterans like Martin Lapointe, Martin Havlat, and Nik Khabibulin, and was built around a “core” of Kyle Calder, Tyler Arnason, and later Tuomo Ruutu.

    Pittsburgh was also atrociously bad from 2002 through 2008. LA was similarly a pathetic team and easy win until about 2010.

    The Oilers need to get out of this pit of muck, but in all truth they’re not that far off the trajectory of the teams they wish to emulate.

  33. vinotintazo says:

    supernova:
    I have concerns about Strome.

    Maybe it’s just one persons view but I read
    “Strome plays a game similar to Joe Thorton but a softer version”
    Edmonton does not need a softer player, since joe’s knock has always been he is soft.

    This would also go against MacT saying he wants drivers, and high compete level.

    Maybe that review was not accurate on Strome but it brought flags.

    Name a skilled center that is NOT soft in this league? there are not many.
    Honestly I dont care if he’s soft.

  34. Woodguy says:

    John Chambers:
    Thing about Nail – he’s 21.

    Let’s look at other 20-22-year olds around the league:

    Galchenyuk is top of the pops – plays on a great team and has 44 gp 11-18-29. 2012 pick

    Filip Forsberg (who I doubted until recently) is tearing it up too – 15-24-39. 2012 pick like Yak

    The more ‘normalized’ performers in the age category include:
    Jonathan Huberdeau is a good comparable. His draft +3 season was a mild disaster, and in draft +4 he’s only 8-17-25

    Tomas Hertl shot the lights out last year, but is only 46gp 8-8-16. Another 2012 pick.

    Ryan Strome is a gem that took an appropriate time to bud after the 2011 draft. His draft +3 season saw boxcars of 37gp 7-11-18, not out of the ballpark from Yakupov.

    In conclusion – Yakupov is struggling, but is getting good looks in the world’s best league. Would his stats look better if he had been properly mentored with a veteran centre? Almost certainly? Are his numbers that far off from former highly-touted picks like Huberdeau, Strome, Hertl, etc? They really aren’t.

    Patience. Give the kid a vet centre. He’s got the talent to deliver and is just stepping into the age where he likely will.

    Good post.

    Thanks for that.

  35. John Chambers says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    John Chambers,

    13 points in his last 13 games for Huberdeau.
    Hope Yak can pull that off sometime.

    Exactly my point. Last season was Huberdeau’s draft +3 season and he couldn’t piss a drop.

    This is Yak’s draft + 3 season. He will be a much more productive player 24 months from now.

    Sign him to a 2-year bridge deal and either make him a core piece or trade him for a much greater return at that time.

  36. Woodguy says:

    supernova,

    This would also go against MacT saying he wants drivers, and high compete level.

    There are *maybe* 4-5 players who have driven play like Thornton in the last 10 years.

    Even this year, old and getting even slower SJS is dominate with him on the ice and getting pounded with him off the ice.

  37. jp says:

    Jordan:
    I don’t have any issues with Nelson specifically – I think he’s a fine coach, and will likely be a good NHL option moving forwards.Still don’t know if his record is his own doing or small sample size PDO spike – overall the team has not looked significantly different to me (other than of course the personnel changes).

    Anyone have a sense of the Oilers PDO under Nelson? Clearly it’s better than under Eakins, but is it just back in the range of 1000, or did it over-correct?

  38. John Chambers says:

    Jordan,

    The last time the Oilers signed a player (impending UFA) to an extension mid-season?

    Ales Hemsky.

  39. Ben says:

    Got a feeling the Pens #1 goes for a Lehner type. Would LOVE it to be Vasilevskiy.

    The D remains the biggest area of concern. It also remains the least likely to be addressed – with a good chance that next year’s blue-line circus is even weaker than this one.

    But when Nurse and Klefbom are leading the team and Schulschtin Jultzner is winning Norrises, we will be ELITE.

  40. jake70 says:

    Thing with Yak is he was a #1overall, and it’s through this prism he is evaluated, rightly or wrongly.

    Also, give him time is one thing, but what do you pay him? Larionov’s been quiet, probably a good thing.

  41. russ99 says:

    Inaction to fix our gaping roster holes once and for all this deadline and this summer will confirm the new arena fix is in.

    There’s no reason to go into next year with most of our defense corps intact and yet again rushing kids into roles they’re not ready for.

    If so, let’s fire MacT now and bring in someone who will make tough moves needed to progress the roster forward and at least put us into a range where we’re playing for something in March.

    That’s Thrashers bad. All that’s left to descend into Thrashers territory is trade a core piece for magic beans and never-wills.

  42. sliderule says:

    When you look at size and Marner you have to factor in he has grown almost 5 inches since he was drafted by London.
    The oilers had the 6-3 and 210 lb MPS who played like he was 5-2.
    Marner is 5-11 and plays bigger than Strome.
    The combine measurements may well show that Marner is still going through a growth spurt.

  43. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    John Chambers: Let’s not forget that the Chicago Blackhawks missed the playoffs for a solid decade. They wasted a #3 OV on Cam Barker. Their rebuild didn’t start with Toews and Kane. It started much prior and fell flat on its face after the team added veterans like Martin Lapointe, Martin Havlat, and Nik Khabibulin, and was built around a “core” of Kyle Calder, Tyler Arnason, and later Tuomo Ruutu.Pittsburgh was also atrociously bad from 2002 through 2008. LA was similarly a pathetic team and easy win until about 2010.The Oilers need to get out of this pit of muck, but in all truth they’re not that far off the trajectory of the teams they wish to emulate.

    I’m not forgetting. I mentioned Chicago and not those other teams for specific reasons.
    They were drafting D-men first, like Buffalo. Keith, Seabrook, Barker (hit, hit, miss).

    Pittsburgh and Chicago had very different paths to rebuilding, actually. And so it doesn’t make sense for the Oilers to talk about trying to be like them.

    My point is that the Oilers’ rebuild method: get high picks, draft high end forwards, throw high pick forwards in the deep end, expect them to mature on their own into PPG players, draft nice D-men later (Nurse) and develop them (so far) correctly, is ass backwards vs. Chicago’s model.

    Buffalo is much closer to Chicago’s model. I didn’t bring up LA or Pittsburgh for a reason.

  44. steveb12344 says:

    jp: Anyone have a sense of the Oilers PDO under Nelson? Clearly it’s better than under Eakins, but is it just back in the range of 1000, or did it over-correct?

    The dice have no memory my friend. For the PDO to even out on it’s own, it would require a very, very, large sample-size. In other words, a lot more than just 10 games.

    In this case it just simply means the shooters have been finishing a little better, and the Goaltenders are stopping a few more shots. At this point it could not be attributed simply to luck.

  45. Ca$h-Money! says:

    John Chambers,

    I loved your comment. The “Yakupov was a mistake” narrative is one of the more irritating in my mind.

    Here’s a fun list of my musings:

    1. When we were drafting RNH in 2011, everyone was saying “Oh, it’s too bad we won’t get first pick next year, that Yakupov kid is generational. OHL scoring record as a 16 year old”.
    2. Ryan Murray isn’t solving any problems for us today, and doesn’t appear to have tremendous upside. I would rather have Nurse in the system than Murray.
    3. It would have taken a set of brass balls the size of my house to draft Galchenyuk with the first overall pick. He barely played. It’s a reasonable risk at 3, it’s career suicide if it doesn’t work out with the number 1 pick.
    4. Forsberg was picked 11th. What were his boxcars in his draft year, because I recall them being 0-0-0 or something in that range. Difficult to project a player like that, hence the drop out of the top 10. Seen as big upside potential, but lots of questions. No one is using a first overall on that pick.
    5. Other than Murray, the only conceivable first overall pick was Reinhart… which would clearly have been a mistake and a pick based on organizational nepotism.

    Yakupov may end up being a bust, but that doesn’t mean that the process involved in making the selection was a mistake. It happens, and it sucks, but that was simply a difficult draft year to predict.

  46. vinotintazo says:

    sliderule:
    When you look at size and Marner you have to factor in he has grown almost 5 inches since he was drafted by London.
    The oilers had the 6-3and 210 lb MPS who played like he was 5-2.
    Marner is 5-11 and playsbigger than Strome.
    The combine measurements may well show that Marneris still going through a growth spurt.

    We already have a 5’11 winger who plays with an edge. Yakupov.
    We used to have two with Perron who’s 6′.
    I would not draft another Winger in the top 5.

    Center, or D.

  47. steveb12344 says:

    Ca$h-Money!:
    John Chambers,

    4. Forsberg was picked 11th.What were his boxcars in his draft year, because I recall them being 0-0-0 or something in that range.Difficult to project a player like that, hence the drop out of the top 10.Seen as big upside potential, but lots of questions.No one is using a first overall on that pick.

    The knock on Forsberg at the time was that he had good boxcars, but was playing in second tier, (or maybe Jr.) league in Sweden. Scouts weren’t sure that his game would translate to playing against top pros in N.A.

    Looks like they blew that one, as he may emerge as the best player from that draft. He’s looking great in Nashville so far.

  48. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    steveb12344,

    Well, the McKenzie list had Forsberg ranked #3. He slipped. Caps got a steal. Then GM GM goofed and gave him away for Erat.

    http://www2.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=9831

    Can’t fault the Oilers for taking Yak.
    Wild swung and missed on Dumba.
    Burke, for all his hot air, did a nice job with scooping Rielly early

    Hertl had a really nice NHLE- I remember LT asking here, who is Hertl, and should the Oilers be looking at drafting him?

    Edit- Anaheim gambled, and won on Lindholm over a number of higher ranked players.
    Pittsbugh got a steal in Maatta (if he can stay healthy).

  49. RexLibris says:

    sliderule:
    When you look at size and Marner you have to factor in he has grown almost 5 inches since he was drafted by London.
    The oilers had the 6-3and 210 lb MPS who played like he was 5-2.
    Marner is 5-11 and playsbigger than Strome.
    The combine measurements may well show that Marneris still going through a growth spurt.

    Good points.

    So what would the look on the Oilers’ faces be if they draft 3rd and Marner goes 2nd?

  50. commonfan14 says:

    John Chambers: The last time the Oilers signed a player (impending UFA) to an extension mid-season?
    Ales Hemsky.

    Hemsky was re-signed only days before the trade deadline in late February 2012.

  51. RexLibris says:

    The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL":
    steveb12344,

    Well, the McKenzie list had Forsberg ranked #3. He slipped. Caps got a steal. Then GM GM goofed and gave him away for Erat.

    http://www2.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=9831

    Can’t fault the Oilers for taking Yak.
    Wild swung and missed on Dumba.
    Burke, for all his hot air, did a nice job with scooping Rielly early

    Hertl had a really nice NHLE- I remember LT asking here, who is Hertl, and should the Oilers be looking at drafting him?

    Edit- Anaheim gambled, and won on Lindholm over a number of higher ranked players.
    Pittsbugh got a steal in Maatta (if he can stay healthy).

    Speaking of gambles http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=146518

    I said it that day and hold to it now, best thing for the kid would’ve been if his GM had just shut his mouth and let him disappear into the NCAA for four years to develop in anonymity.

  52. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    RexLibris: Good points.So what would the look on the Oilers’ faces be if they draft 3rd and Marner goes 2nd?

    Let me see if I’m doing this right. Shock (MacT face when they lost that OT game), then glee, then running up to the podium with Darryl, Bob, Bob, Darryl’s kid, Nelson, and Draisaitl.

    “With the 3rd seletion in the NHL entry draft, the Edmonton Oilers are proud to select, from the Kingston Frontenacs, Lawson Crouse.”

    “We like his size and his grit and physicality. We compare him to Lucic.”

    New Jersey goes to the podium next and Lou promptly selects Eichel.

  53. jp says:

    steveb12344: The dice have no memory my friend.For the PDO to even out on it’s own, it would require a very, very, large sample-size.In other words, a lot more than just 10 games.

    In this case it just simply means the shooters have been finishing a little better, and the Goaltenders are stopping a few more shots.At this point it could not be attributed simply to luck.

    Yeah, I was just wondering how much (if at all) Nelson has benefited from luck in his short time at the helm. Not trying to imply any causation on any of the PDO numbers.

    Turns out the Oil GF-GA and SF-SA over the past 10 games is 26-28 (excluding shootout goals) and 251-302. That works out to a shooting % of 10.36 and SV% of 90.73 and a PDO of 1011. So he has been actually a bit lucky, though no where close to as “unlucky” as Eakins (in the 970 range if I remember correctly).

  54. steveb12344 says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”:
    steveb12344,

    Well, the McKenzie list had Forsberg ranked #3. He slipped. Caps got a steal. Then GM GM goofed and gave him away for Erat.

    http://www2.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=9831

    Can’t fault the Oilers for taking Yak.
    Wild swung and missed on Dumba.
    Burke, for all his hot air, did a nice job with scooping Rielly early

    Hertl had a really nice NHLE- I remember LT asking here, who is Hertl, and should the Oilers be looking at drafting him?

    Agreed, with all above.

    I remember hearing at the time that Forsberg slid because G.M’s were nervous that he only played second tier, and Jr. in Sweden, and not the SHL.

    That Mckenzie is a smart cat, although for him he doesn’t have to make those picks with the pressure of an entire franchise on his shoulders.

  55. knighttown says:

    I wonder if the Oilers might have a chance at a Tampa 2011; Russian-centered draft? Ignoring the issue with the KHL, Russians always slide past their talent level. The elite get drafted in the right spot, or close enough, like Nichuskin. That second level of prospect that will have to put some time in lesser leagues like the AHL tend to be the ones that scare off NHL teams. Why make 250k in the AHL if you can make a few million in the KHL?

    Add to that, the number of teams with more than 1 Russian on their roster is way smaller than you think. Tampa, Washington, Montreal, Columbus, Islanders.. And of course Edmonton with Yakupov and Nikitin plus Yak 2 and Sleppy bubbling under who would be known by the young Russian players.

    I really only see Tampa (Kucherov, Namestnikov, Vasilevski, Nesterov), Washington (Ovie, Kuznetsov, Orlov) and Montreal (Galchenyuk, Markov, Emelin, Gonchar) as being more pro-Russian than Edmonton. Columbus has goalie Bob, Tyutin and Anisimov but it seems like that was a 5-years ago experiment that they are trying to get out of. Islanders is Grabbo and Kulimen but that’s pretty recent and was more of an afterthought than a strategy.

    And I’d suggest that if teams have only one pick in the first round in a historically deep draft they are more likely to select a player they can write in their roster with pen rather than a Russian with some concerns. Do you really see Provorov being picked before Kingston-boy Lawson Crouse?

    Back to the original point, in 2011 Tampa targeted sliding Russians and picked Namestnikov at 27, Kucherov at 58 and Nesterov at 148 and three years later all three helped beat the Oilers last week.

    A quote from Al Murray…

    “We talked to (Tampa Bay General Manager Steve Yzerman) a month before the draft and played out this scenario happening,” Murray told NHL.com. “Some people seem to be backing off Russian players, but we want the best ones. We want the ones that are NHL-caliber and we had four (including Kitchener Rangers center Alexander Khokhlachev) on our list and ended up having three of them there when each of our picks came around.

    “It wasn’t planned ahead of time but something we discussed, so when it materialized, we were going to react according to how Steve wanted to do it. He wanted the most talented guys available.”

    If most of the first round picks are safe, the Oilers will be bidding against only Tampa, Montreal and Washington for the services of Provorov, Svechnikov and Korostelev.

    A draft of Eichel, Provorov and Svechnikov would be something else and within the realm of possibility. Perhaps throw Marincin at Winnipeg right now for Burmistrov.

  56. Hammers says:

    One week to the all-star game and hopefully 2 weeks for some changes on the Oilers . I felt the end of January was when the deck chairs would start moving . Both Pakirinen & Yakimov need some games and if no trades are made Gazdic & Fraser will have to be waived .Is it time to put Pouliot with RNH and for Hall to play with Yak & Roy ??? If Gordons line is left alone can Yak2 & Pak get some time with Lander & Purcell ?? Do we use a McBlender for the forwards if we bring up the 2 most worthy .As for our “D” i’m not sure who or what may help other than a couple of injuries .

  57. Pajamah says:

    Gilbert, Petry, Visnovsky.

    Unlike Chicago or Pittsburgh we keep trading our good defensemen for magic beans. Gilbert to Schultz, to Nikitin. Outright loss. Visnovsky to Whitney to nothing. Another loss. Petry will get moved and hopefully for something that we can look back in 5 years and say we won a deal, however, I’m not holding my breath.

    And in that time we haven’t had serviceable goaltending. We’ve completely ignored blue line back and expect to be a contender soon?

    I’m just glad the Oilers taught so many teams how to rebuild incorrectly. Calgary, Buffalo, Florida, Brooklyn, all making our management look really bad

  58. Pouzar says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”,

    Couple days ago.

    “Galchenyuk told Therrien this morning that he was more comfortable on the wing, so the head coach decided to trust his player and accommodate his wishes.”

    http://www.gohabsgo.com/2015/01/17/a-surprising-roster-for-tonights-game-against-the-/

  59. Hammers says:

    jp: Yeah, I was just wondering how much (if at all) Nelson has benefited from luck in his short time at the helm. Not trying to imply any causation on any of the PDO numbers.

    Turns out the Oil GF-GA and SF-SA over the past 10 games is 26-28 (excluding shootout goals) and 251-302. That works out to a shooting % of 10.36 and SV% of 90.73 and a PDO of 1011. So he has been actually a bit lucky, though no where close to as “unlucky” as Eakins (in the 970 range if I remember correctly).

    You have to be Lucky to be good and Good to be Lucky . Just maybe Nelson is using what he has in a different way .

  60. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    knighttown,

    Those are very good points. I remember that draft and a lot of savvy people said T-Bay may have had the best draft walking out of there.

    That said, you’ve noticed Tampa’s success. How many GMs have also noticed their success this year? I do think more teams will go for Russians this year. The Ruble and KHL trouble also mean there is less incentive at the moment for players to stay in Russia or bolt for there. The KHL risk is materially lower than it was a year ago.

    I think it was Woodguy or someone else here who said Russians are the undervalued players in the system right now, like high strike-out, low batting average, high OBP and high slugging batters in Billy Beane’s world once upon a time.

    One last thing, Grabovski is from Belarus, not Russia. 🙂

  61. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    MightyOil1: and then disagree with the majority answer.

    And we know how the ‘phone a friend’ would go…

  62. KSC10032 says:

    There is so much talk @ Yak, and so little genuine knowledge.

    The Oilers — for largely self-inflicted reasons — have not had the resources to effectively incubate ANY of their top picks, (especially given fan antipathy towards Horcoff). This trend has not stopped, even with the Roy acquisition.

    My worry @ Yak is how much he reminds me of Robert Nillson. Both are medium-smallish LHS scoring wingers with significant holes in their game. Both seem to be nice enough kids and Yak is described as a hard (enough) worker. But both display a glacier like learning profile, and the clock is certainly ticking on Yak, having already run out on Nillson.

    Sometimes kids just don’t get (enough) better to become top half of the roster NHLers. There are always a variety of causes speculated upon, but sometimes there just isn’t a definitive reason. It underlines the basic fact that — apart from the rare Crosby level talents — no one of draft age is good enough — at the time they are drafted — to be true NHL level contributors without significant improvement in ALL aspects of their game.

  63. frjohnk says:

    Ran some numbers for Petry in regard to the Shut Down Index from http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2013/7/30/4570108/sdi-v2-1-shut-down-index-2012-13-part-2

    This included a lot of work but Petry is ranked 32nd overall for this year.

    32nd!!! This is good shut down defenceman.

    Ran some other numbers from war on ice. 5 on 5 for D men

    Points/60
    tied for 136th best

    PDO
    7th worst

    On Ice Team Shooting with Petry on the Ice %
    5th worst

    If Oilers shot league average shooting % with petry on ice and Petry kept same percentage of points while on the ice. He would be tied for 92nd for points/60

    Corsi Against/60
    73rd best

    Fenwick Against/60
    82nd best

    Corsi For % Rel
    41st best

    Fenwick for % Rel
    54th best

    Scoring Chances For % Rel
    38th best

    OZS %
    28th toughest

    Change in OZ start OZ finish
    51st best

    TOI/game
    29th highest

    Shot Blocks
    6th best

    Hits
    50th best

    Marc Staal is considered a number 2/3 D man. Petry’s numbers this year are in his range. The problem with Petry is that he plays against 1st and 2nd lines but he has NEVER had a D partner is has been better than a number 5. Yes Marincin is better than Ference and Nikitin but he is not a top 4 d man.

    I have said it before, if Petry is on a pairing in which he is the 2nd best d man, you got a really good D pairing.

  64. steveb12344 says:

    jp: Yeah, I was just wondering how much (if at all) Nelson has benefited from luck in his short time at the helm. Not trying to imply any causation on any of the PDO numbers.

    Turns out the Oil GF-GA and SF-SA over the past 10 games is 26-28 (excluding shootout goals) and 251-302. That works out to a shooting % of 10.36 and SV% of 90.73 and a PDO of 1011. So he has been actually a bit lucky, though no where close to as “unlucky” as Eakins (in the 970 range if I remember correctly).

    Yeah Nelson has had the better of the PDO for sure. As far as Eakins goes, I would attribute some of that to luck, and some of it to, well, sometimes you make your own luck.

    As much as I found Godot’s unrelenting posts on Eakins annoying at the time, I’m starting to think he was on to something.

    It can’t be just luck that EVERY Goalie who played under him put up worse numbers than at pretty much any other time in his career. While nearly all the young players on the team pretty much got consistently worse under his tenure.

    While the skill level of the team hasn’t changed much since his exit, it should be obvious to anyone with two eyes that the team is playing more confidently under Nelson.

    Whatever happened under Eakins, for sure they were a demoralized group by the end, that had little to no belief in themselves as a team, as far as competing in the NHL goes.

  65. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    frjohnk,

    Nice post, sir. Agree with you. Can we fax that over to Kingsway? I have a feeling they still use fax machines instead of email.

  66. leadfarmer says:

    I think lack of size and chosen by the Oilers will not go together in this draft unless someone drops a lot. We’re back to coke machines

  67. Klima's_Bucket says:

    John Chambers,

    You are a smart man.
    And at some point Yakupov will explode.

  68. Klima's_Bucket says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”: I have a feeling they still use fax machines instead of email.

    Haven’t you heard they skipped email and moved straight to Skype.

  69. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    leadfarmer,

    “We’ve been really impressed by the detail of his work. He knows how to build a team and is on side with our preference to get bigger, stronger and faster athletes.”

    MacT on Bob Green.

    Sure does read like “coke machines.” But I’ll wait to pass judgment until after the draft.

  70. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Klima’s_Bucket: Haven’t you heard they skipped email and moved straight to Skype.

    Ha ha. I can just see the hamster spinning the wheel in the cage over K-Lowe’s shoulder if we ever had that skype call with him.

  71. russ99 says:

    Aw man, the Winter Classic reportedly going back to Boston again against the Habs.

    Obviously only eastern/big market teams need apply…

    Can’t Minnesota or St. Louis get a shot? Stupid Bettman…

  72. misfit says:

    The mention of New York as a destination for Yakupov (who I agree will be moved, though I’ll add that I think he also should be moved) is interesting. Not only from the standpoint of the Sather/Oilers connection, but Slats has always been willing to gamble on skill and pedigree. He’s also looking at St. Louis becoming a free agent, though he’ll have no trouble re-signing him for as many years as he’s willing to commit to a 40 y/o winger. The Rangers depth chart at RW is Jesper Fast as of July 1 since Zuccarello and Stempniak are also UFAs.

  73. russ99 says:

    misfit:
    The mention of New York as a destination for Yakupov (who I agree will be moved, though I’ll add that I think he also should be moved) is interesting.Not only from the standpoint of the Sather/Oilers connection, but Slats has always been willing to gamble on skill and pedigree.He’s also looking at St. Louis becoming a free agent, though he’ll have no trouble re-signing him for as many years as he’s willing to commit to a 40 y/o winger.The Rangers depth chart at RW is Jesper Fast as of July 1 since Zuccarello and Stempniak are also UFAs.

    Slats also has a reputation of fleecing his trade partners on trades. I would’t do it.

    Plus who would we get? I’m not a big fan of their defensemen, other than Staal who just re-signed. I seriously doubt we could get McDonagh.

    And moving Yak for a checking forward or futures would be a total waste…

    I’d rather move Eberle + for our next top defenseman.

  74. Numenius says:

    steveb12344: It can’t be just luck that EVERY Goalie who played under him put up worse numbers than at pretty much any other time in his career. While nearly all the young players on the team pretty much got consistently worse under his tenure.

    While the skill level of the team hasn’t changed much since his exit, it should be obvious to anyone with two eyes that the team is playing more confidently under Nelson.

    Whatever happened under Eakins, for sure they were a demoralized group by the end, that had little to no belief in themselves as a team, as far as competing in the NHL goes.

    I’m with you on this. Nice post.

    Eakins himself once said that to some degree you create your own luck. So even he would disagree would those who blame his poor performance to bad PDO outside of his control.

  75. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”: Sure does read like “coke machines.”

    That was my impression as well, until you consider that they also said ‘faster’. This summer will be very interesting, indeed.

  76. leadfarmer says:

    I think we can take another year to develop Yakupov. Next year we have a whole line or more
    Yak, Strome (or similar), Draisatl
    Nurse, Schultz, Nikitin

    that will need serious sheltering. They will are looking at a top 10 pick in the very best scenario.

    Also, I would not give up on Yak either. As someone mentioned above it is not unusual for a high pick forward to struggle during his entry level contract. Ryan Johansen didnt take off until his post draft year #4. Huberdeau is finally doing decent in post draft year 4. Yak still might put it together.

    As far as drafting a winger. Do not spend a lottery pick on a winger unless they are far and above the best player available. People say don’t draft D with lottery picks but evidence says wingers are far more risky. Plus if you really need a winger you can always shuffle one of your centers over, but you most of the time can’t shuffle a young winger into center positions. Wingers also hold less value than defensemen and centers in the trade market.

  77. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    russ99: Aw man, the Winter Classic reportedly going back to Boston again against the Habs.Obviously only eastern/big market teams need apply…Can’t Minnesota or St. Louis get a shot? Stupid Bettman…

    Minnesota vs Dallas in Minny
    St Louis vs Chicago in Springfield
    St Louis vs Columbus in Notre Dame Stadium
    Colorado vs Detroit in Denver

    All would be interesting.

    But after the ratings disaster this year and the new college football playoff format, these outdoor games may fizzle out.

    That and the Canadian dollar. Two reasons why the cap won’t go up as much in future years.

    Let’s help the Hawks out with their cap problem. Schultz, 2016 1st and Pittsburgh’s 2015 1st for Seabrook and Sharp 😉

  78. leadfarmer says:

    Auston Matthews ’16,

    Yeah but bigger, and faster players are usually what other teams also covet so you end up with bigger faster players with hands of stone. So I guess the correct term would be more Crazy Trains.

  79. LMHF#1 says:

    With the way he’s taken off, can you afford to pass on Marner at 3 supposing the big 2 are gone?

    Guy looks like a serious player, and the Oilers could head into next season with Hopkins, Roy, Lander, Gordon, Draisaitl, Yakimov at C with no additions. You could easily trade from depth for another C, or UFA, and leave Marner in junior.

    There are guys good enough you can’t turn down. He might be one of them.

  80. jp says:

    Hammers: You have to be Lucky to be good and Good to be Lucky . Just maybe Nelson is using what he has in a different way .

    I’d have disagreed with you on that not too long ago, but Eakins’ sustained year and a half long run of putrid PDO have convinced me that it’s at least possible PDO isn’t all luck. It’s far too early to be sure Nelson is on to something real though, but yeah, he may be. Hopefully.

  81. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Auston Matthews ’16,

    Yeah, I don’t think faster excludes coke machines per se. There’s no mention of skill there. Power forward types. We’ve seen this before. Jacques, Winchester, Isbister, etc.

  82. John Chambers says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”: Let me see if I’m doing this right. Shock (MacT face when they lost that OT game), then glee, then running up to the podium with Darryl, Bob, Bob, Darryl’s kid, Nelson, and Draisaitl.

    “With the 3rd seletion in the NHL entry draft, the Edmonton Oilers are proud to select, from the Kingston Frontenacs, Lawson Crouse.”

    “We like his size and his grit and physicality. We compare him to Lucic.”

    New Jersey goes to the podium next and Lou promptly selects Eichel.

    Way too funny. Way way too funny.

    And true. And sad.

  83. leadfarmer says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”,

    Yeah Minnesota is crazy about outdoor sports in the middle of winter. Bring in Chicago to play and it would be a huge hit. Might not be the T..V ratings spectacular but the draw in the city would be huge. They might be waiting for the new Vikings stadium to be done though.

  84. jp says:

    LMHF#1:
    With the way he’s taken off, can you afford to pass on Marner at 3 supposing the big 2 are gone?

    Guy looks like a serious player, and the Oilers could head into next season with Hopkins, Roy, Lander, Gordon, Draisaitl, Yakimov at C with no additions. You could easily trade from depth for another C, or UFA, and leave Marner in junior.

    There are guys good enough you can’t turn down. He might be one of them.

    I don’t think the Oilers will have any trouble turning him down.

  85. Unicorns says:

    Rondo:
    If Oilers do chooseMitch Marner , can you imagine the day when he does not look good right away comments. Oilers pick a small winger.

    I think it would be a mistake to draft a winger again that high unless he is well and clear of any C or D. Especially a small winger, unless he absolutely lights it up he won’t have the trade value to get what the team actually needs if you’re using the pick the BPA and trade model.

    I am for BPA but this team needs another offense only non-physical player like it needs another losing season. I guess they could trade Eberle and keep Marner, but that puts things back and is running in place. I’d take Strome or a D.

  86. jp says:

    I’ve heard it mentioned that Strome did really well when McDavid was injured/at the Juniors. Anyone know the breakdown of his scoring with McDavid in and out of the lineup?

  87. rickithebear says:

    sliderule:
    When you look at size and Marner you have to factor in he has grown almost 5 inches since he was drafted by London.
    The oilers had the 6-3and 210 lb MPS who played like he was 5-2.
    Marner is 5-11 and playsbigger than Strome.
    The combine measurements may well show that Marner is still going through a growth spurt.

    5’0″ 90lb Bantam Year.
    5’7″ 130lb Bantam draft.
    5’11” 165lb kane’s size 6 months younger.
    2 games i watched. Defensive back check game mirror image of RNH.

    Mother 5’11”
    Brother 6’2″

    We have 6’5″ 235lb C Yakimov generating 0.9 EVP/Gm when playing with C.Hamilton /Miller /Pakirinen @ 20 in AHL.

    Draisatl 6’1″ 210lb seems to allways attack from the right side.
    Might be more suited a RW role next year.

    LW Slepyshev 6′ 1″ 195lb since start of Dec is getting 13:38 per game.
    Generating 3.47 EVP/60 in KHL @ 20
    1ppg at Spengler

    Pouliot-Roy are generating the kind of EVP you dream of getting from 12:00 EV min per game.
    Hall-XXX-Eberle seperated from RNH are 3.24 GF/60 2.50 GA/60 at even.

    Hall-XXX-Eberle
    XXX-RNH-XXX
    Pouliot-Roy-XXX

    LW Slepyshev (20)
    LW C. Hamilton (23)
    C Yakimov (20)
    C/W Draisatl (19)
    RW Pakirinen (23) product of same System as Hartikainen

    Post trade deadline I would hope Hamilton; Pakirinen at least get a Push.

  88. Jon K says:

    LMHF#1:
    With the way he’s taken off, can you afford to pass on Marner at 3 supposing the big 2 are gone?

    Guy looks like a serious player, and the Oilers could head into next season with Hopkins, Roy, Lander, Gordon, Draisaitl, Yakimov at C with no additions. You could easily trade from depth for another C, or UFA, and leave Marner in junior.

    There are guys good enough you can’t turn down. He might be one of them.

    Oilers passed on the consensus #3 pick last draft for the consensus #4 pick because size. Everyone in the world could agree on Marner at 3 and there would still be a very real worry about the Oilers taking Crouse or Zacha. Taking Draisaitl was a reasonable pick but I thought it was the wrong one at the time and still do. Of course, they wanted a big body to inject into the lineup this year. That worked out.

  89. verdad2.0 says:

    Two more points for Perron last night.
    Simply another piece of evidence of the utter incompetence of MacTavish.
    No one can justify trading an actual player for nothing!

    If some are enthused over Klinkhammer , then traade for him separately. Like give Pittsburgh Schultz.
    But to give up a player who will likely go on for many years with Pittsburgh productively, while the Oilers mire themselves in the illusion that late draft choices have any value.

    This is hard to bear. Ten years of it.

  90. verdad2.0 says:

    BTW, Draisatl plays small. Those that thought he would a physicial presence must not have watched him play. Did we see a body check from him over 40 games? Trying hard to remember.
    Did he play with passion? Or just a kind of lost puppy quality?
    Typical Oiler scouting.
    Typical MacTavish miscue.

  91. Yeti says:

    jake70: Thing with Yak is he was a #1overall, and it’s through this prism he is evaluated, rightly or wrongly.

    Where would Yak likely go if he had been in this coming draft?

  92. RexLibris says:

    Jon K,

    Bennett has missed almost an entire year of development due to shoulder issues.

    Had the Oilers taken him one could easily have argued that they didn’t do their due diligence and selected another small forward with prior injury issues that could hamper his development.

    Draisaitl and Bennett are different types of players and Draisaitl represents a type the team has been short on for some time.

    He also racked up 100+ points in the WHL in his draft year when the sum total of offensive weapons for the Raiders was he and Morrissey.

    Draisaitl was a good pick. Bennett would have been good as well, but in either case we can construct narratives surrounding the player to support the evidence of the organization’s errors in other fields.

    If the Oilers are picking 3rd and they have a choice of Strome, Marner, Hanifin or trade, at this point I would trust Bob Green to make the right call.

    One should also look at the talents available and, at that draft position, select the player who perhaps best complements the current core group. There is a lot of talent there, and choosing Strome over Marner leaves some skill on the table, but if it makes the team better as a whole then ultimately that is the objective.

    For my money, I’d be happy with either Marner or Strome. I believe strongly that you need to build down the middle, and I like Strome’s scouting reports, but it does read a lot like Draisaitl so I think you need to at least entertain the thought of drafting Marner.

  93. RexLibris says:

    Yeti: Where would Yak likely go if he had been in this coming draft?

    If I had to guess, I’d say probably below Marner and in the range of Strome.

    He was an offensive dynamo playing in the OHL. KHL concerns then were iffy, today they’d be nearly non-existent based on the rouble.

    McDavid and Eichel might have pushed even Taylor Hall down the list because they are centers. Being ranked just behind them on any draft list isn’t a knock.

  94. Ben says:

    verdad2.0:
    BTW, Draisatl plays small. Those that thought he would a physicial presence must not have watched him play.Did we see a body check from him over 40 games? Trying hard to remember.
    Did he play with passion? Or just a kind of lost puppy quality?
    Typical Oiler scouting.
    Typical MacTavish miscue.

    With respect, this is silly-talk.

    He played as exactly what he was: a big, skilled, inexperienced teenager.

    When he was on and playing with confidence, he used his frame extremely efficiently to protect the puck and make plays. Did he run around delivering elbows and picking fights with Carcillo? Thank goodness he did not.

    He’ll be Jason Arnott. He’s got an outside shot at being Joe Thornton.

    “Plays small”. Ridiculous.

  95. verdad2.0 says:

    All this Strome talk.
    Surely we can all remember the Gagner experience.
    Kane was the only player on that team. Gagner was a beneficiary of the back draft.
    Can it be any other way with Strome?

    Trading the third pick for an actual player for the fall of 2015 might be an overdue consideration for the brain trust of the OIlers?

    Without the top two available the Oilers what is the point of another 18 year old playing for them?

  96. spoiler says:

    russ99:
    Aw man, the Winter Classic reportedly going back to Boston again against the Habs.

    Obviously only eastern/big market teams need apply…

    Can’t Minnesota or St. Louis get a shot? Stupid Bettman…

    Considering the Midwest just had the Classic this year, isn’t sending it back East the actual fair thing to do?

    Otherwise they would be saying, “only Midwest Market teams need apply.”

    Is this blog all about emotional response or do we fire up a synapse or two before we post?

    I don’t mean to pick on you Russ… going emo seems to have become more prevalent from a lot of commentors lately–perhaps the abysmal season has something to do with it. So to prove I’m not singling you out, I will pick on someone else too, lol…

    MightyOil1: Here, here…..
    I can imagine Oiler Management on the hot seat filming an episode of “Who Wants to be A Millionaire?”.

    They would be the only contestants everto choose to ask the audience, and then disagree with the majority answer.

    This is in the same light. The audience poll was certainly not infallible on WWTBAM, and contestants disagreeing with the majority did happen and with success.

  97. spoiler says:

    verdad2.0:
    Two more points for Perron last night.
    Simply another piece of evidence of the utter incompetence of MacTavish.
    No one can justify trading an actual player for nothing!

    If some are enthused over Klinkhammer , then traade for him separately. Like give Pittsburgh Schultz.
    But to give up a player who will likely go on for many years with Pittsburgh productively, while the Oilers mire themselves in the illusion that late draft choices have any value.

    This is hard to bear. Ten years of it.

    Are you sure you’re not Godotdad2.0?

  98. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    spoiler: Considering the Midwest just had the Classic this year, isn’t sending it back East the actual fair thing to do?Otherwise they would be saying, “only Midwest Market teams need apply.”Is this blog all about emotional response or do we fire up a synapse or two before we post?I don’t mean to pick on you Russ… going emo seems to have become more prevalent from a lot of commentors lately–perhaps the abysmal season has something to do with it. So to prove I’m not singling you out, I will pick on someone else too, lol…This is in the same light. The audience poll was certainly not infallible on WWTBAM, and contestants disagreeing with the majority did happen and with success.

    And to keep the spirit of picking on each other fair, on what map is Washington, D.C. considered “Midwest?”

  99. spoiler says:

    Jon K: Oilers passed on the consensus #3 pick last draft for the consensus #4 pick because size.

    Bobby Mac’s list isn’t a consensus but an average (possibly a weighted average). Sorry again, not picking on you jon, you’re a bright guy and have been contributing positively here for many many years. I always enjoy reading your thoughts.

    But the term consensus gets thrown around way too much here on a blog that is supposed to stand for the fastidiousness of Math.

    The misconception “consensus” gives us becomes even worse when we’re talking about 2nd and 3rd round prospects where the range of votes can vary 30-40 spots from top to bottom.

  100. spoiler says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”: And to keep the spirit of picking on each other fair, on what map is Washington, D.C. considered “Midwest?”

    Sorry wasn’t it in Chicago this year? I never pay attention to the damn thing. Am I running a year behind? Okay, I know it’s the wrong side of the James River, but then it’s going from the South to the Northeast, where it hasn’t been in like forever… (I hope)

    Edit: Now I see… Chicago was in it, thought it was held back there.

  101. verdad2.0 says:

    spoiler,

    Well, it is what it is.
    At some point, the MacT blunders need to be held to account.

  102. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    spoiler,

    No sir, it was in DC. Yes, South/ Mid-Atlantic indeed, but certainly not in the Midwest!

  103. vinotintazo says:

    verdad2.0:
    All this Strome talk.
    Surely we can all remember the Gagner experience.
    Kane was the only player on that team. Gagner was a beneficiary of the back draft.
    Can it be any other way with Strome?

    Trading the third pick for an actual player for the fall of 2015 might be an overdue consideration for the brain trust of the OIlers?

    Without the top two available the Oilers what is the point of another 18 year old playing for them?

    You can look at the WOWY numbers of strome, away from mcDavid, he’s a very good player.

    Played about 20 games w/o him. also they play on different lines, so they ussually share points on the PP.

  104. spoiler says:

    Detroit, Wash, Boston…

    Seriously, if they can go Northeast, Midwest, South, rinse-repeat in a rotation like it appears they are doing, I don’t know what Bettman is doing wrong.

    The time to complain was when PA got it in back to back years, #becauseSnider, I’m presuming.

  105. Black Frank says:

    The question isn’t whether Yak has the skill. It’s how long it willtake a competent coach like Nelson to undo the damage done to this player’s brain by Godot’s erstwhile BFF.

    At this juncture the best alternative is not available, let Yak tear up the AHL until he gets his confidence back, then pull him back into the big team. I think Nelson has already done remarkable work with this group, but whether he has enough time to un-Eakins/ re-Kruegerize / Nelsonize Yak is the question.

  106. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    ’08 Buffalo
    ’09 Chicago
    ’10 Boston
    ’11 Pittsburgh
    ’12 Philly
    ’14 Ann Arbor
    ’15 Washington, D.C.

    I wouldn’t go back to Boston, either. Minnesota, Denver, St. Louis, or even a neutral site with history like Notre Dame Stadium could be fun (although that’s close to Chicago). NYC had two games at Yankee Stadium, which was okay, but they were just Stadium Series games. A Winter Classic in Yankee Stadium or Citi Field between the Rangers and Isles could be a great game as well.

  107. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    spoiler,

    Pittsburgh and Philly aren’t that close to each other. And I’m not griping, I think the Winter Classic will continue to struggle for the most part if it is sharing the same day as the new college football playoffs, which it is.

    I was just spreading the wealth on picking on each other by pointing out that DC isn’t Midwest 🙂

  108. Doomoil says:

    Shout out to Dennis King for his direct shot at bitter idiot Tychkowski.

  109. eidy says:

    knighttown,

    For the Russians the other guy I’ve been watching is Alexander Dergachyov. About’s Bogdan’s size and scoring close to the same one step below KHL. He was the one battling Nurse behind the net at the WJC.

  110. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    Doomoil:
    Shout out to Dennis King for his direct shot at bitter idiot Tychkowski.

    Seconded!

  111. spoiler says:

    The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL": Pittsburgh and Philly aren’t that close to each other. And I’m not griping, I think the Winter Classic will continue to struggle for the most part if it is sharing the same day as the new college football playoffs, which it is

    Agreed on the bad date. And that’s about a 5 hour drive IIRC, so… if we call Pitt a borderline Midwest team, then it was definitely the Northeast’s turn. And I’m assuming Buffalo doesn’t want it again… yet. lol.

    Let’s see where Bettman picks for the year after.

  112. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Auston Matthews ’16: Seconded!

    Could someone please post what was said? I’m at work and can access this but not social media.

    I’ve personally been boycotting all articles by Mr. Tychowski since he wrote that article shaming the fans who want the Oilers to Orange for McDavid. I’m not one of those fans, but that opinion piece was in poor taste and was completely unnecessary.

    Edit- Never mind. Will look it up later.

  113. G Money says:

    spoiler: Bobby Mac’s list isn’t a consensus but an average (possibly a weighted average). Sorry again, not picking on you jon, you’re a bright guy and have been contributing positively here for many many years. I always enjoy reading your thoughts.
    But the term consensus gets thrown around way too much here on a blog that is supposed to stand for the fastidiousness of Math.
    The misconception “consensus” gives us becomes even worse when we’re talking about 2nd and 3rd round prospects where the range of votes can vary 30-40 spots from top to bottom.

    Hmmm, I think you’re straw manning a bit. Jon didn’t reference Bobby Mac’s list.

    And yeah, that list is almost certainly an average, weighted or otherwise, but its sources are different – it is (as I understand), some average of 10 different NHL scouts.

    But then you have the various other scouting gurus and services weighing in, independent of McKenzie.

    So a “Consensus #x” would be a player that some or all (depending on how you define “consensus”) of Bobby, Craig Button, Pronman, and some selection of scouting services all rank as #x. And that does happen for a handful of the high picks.

    The flipside is correct, though – there is almost no such thing as e.g. a “consensus #20” pick. By that point, the variation between the different scouting lists tends to be pretty significant.

  114. spoiler says:

    There really is Oil in Virginia today… they’re practising in Arlington today.

  115. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”: Could someone please post what was said?

    I didn’t catch the show today, so I don’t know exactly what King said.

    But if you mean Tych, he twisted Nelson’s post-game comments about there being ‘no analytics’ on Yak’s shootout abilities, into Dellow being the reason for Yak not getting any shootout chances from Eakins.

  116. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL",

    Rob Tychkowski ✔ @Sun_Tychkowski
    Follow
    Todd Nelson reveals that Oilers analytics guy had been the one advising against using Yakupov in shootouts.
    9:03 PM – 17 Jan 2015

    Rob Tychkowski ✔ @Sun_Tychkowski
    Follow
    Since Yakupov had zero career attempts, his scoring percentage was 0. Thus, everyone else was ranked higher, analytically. Total insanity

    Reporter: ‘Cause you took some heat your first game when you went eight deep in the shootout and you didn’t pick him and you said ‘Well he hadn’t played in the third period,’ he was cold, and you didn’t want to use him.

    Nelson: Well there were zero analytics that supported Yak in the shootout so we’re going-

    Reporter: So he’s gone? That analytics guy’s gone?

    Nelson: No.

    Reporter: Oh, Ok.

    Nelson: It was one of those things where we were looking at the analytics for certain guys in the shootouts but Yak just never went, so right now he’s looking pretty good.

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/word-analytics/

  117. Doomoil says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”: Could someone please post what was said? I’m at work and can access this but not social media.

    I’ve personally been boycotting all articles by Mr. Tychowski since he wrote that article shaming the fans who want the Oilers to Orange for McDavid. I’m not one of those fans, but that opinion piece was in poor taste and was completely unnecessary.

    He jokingly mentioned that he and Dellow had spoken on the phone and that Dellow had personally apologized for not listening to to King’s fantastic advice of putting Yak in the shootout, and that since he recorded this conversation, he wouldn’t need to make up a fictitious story about it later like some people.

  118. LMHF#1 says:

    Rishaug also made a Dellow/SO comment this morning.

    Any word on when ol Mudcrutch might re-surface publicly? Or is he still in the cone of silence?

  119. spoiler says:

    G Money: So a “Consensus #x” would be a player that some or all (depending on how you define “consensus”) of Bobby, Craig Button, Pronman, and some selection of scouting services all rank as #x. And that does happen for a handful of the high picks.

    And was there a consensus on Draisaitl or Bennet when we include all the lists?

    I don’t recall there being one. I’m pretty sure Jon was implying the McKenzie list despite not saying so, because to bring in the other lists usually further takes the rankings away from consensus.

    It wasn’t Jon I was so much disagreeing with, which I thought was evident from my post, but the widespread use of the term consensus when it comes to draft lists when really this notion applies to very few prospects.

  120. rickithebear says:

    Lawson Crouse: age based NHL performance:
    26-28 Even goals per season top 5 NHL with repeats Benn; Kessel; Pacioretty
    11-13 EVA per season

    The kid has played his Last 15 gm:
    He played
    9/15 With .95 PPG center Polesello
    8/15 with.70 PPG Lammiko
    5/15 with .50 PPG Shutt
    3/15 with .36 PPG verbeek
    2/15 with .85 ppg Kujawinski
    1/15 each with .58 PPG pauwley
    1/15 with .58 PPG McGlynn

    63 % with .83 PPG players
    37% with .47 PPG players
    which equates to .73 PPG players for the whole time.
    Crouse is getting .77PPG

    Crouse did not play from Nov 30th on.
    till WJC 3points in 7 GM

    His last 6 Gm are 4g 3A playing
    4/6 Lammiko .70 PPG 1.00 PPG playing with Crouse
    3/6 Polessello .96 PPG 1.33PPG playing with Crouse
    3/6 Verbeek .36 PPG 1.00 PPG with Crouse
    2/6 Shutt .50 PPG 1.50 PPG with Crouse

    .64 PPG of players averaged 1.13 PPG with post WJC Crouse.
    A 77% increase in production with him.

    This Kid is playing with a shite collection of players and pushing the Production.

    Fu……………. Me generational talent every were 😉 on this draft.

  121. linkfromhyrule says:

    I was curious about Martin Marincin, and how much of his performance last year was due to the Jeff Petry Effect, where otherwise not-so-great players look half competent when paired with him.

    Martin Marincin-Jeff Petry WOWY (CF%)
    Together: 48.1%, TOI: 527 min
    Marincin W/O Petry: 46.2%, TOI: 160 min
    Petry W/O Marincin: 45.9%, TOI: 809 min

    I was not surprised to find that they played worse apart, likely due to the quality of teammates they played with, but it was surprising to see that Marincin fared better than Petry when they were apart.

    Normally when rookie dmen become separated from their veteran mentor, they fare much worse.

    Ekblad-Campbell go from being 57.4CF%(!!!) together to 40.7% and 49.3% apart respectively
    Klingberg-Goligoski go from being 54.8% to 45.4% and 49.1% apart
    Jones (in his rookie season)-Ekholm 53.1% together, 48.5 and 48.8 apart
    (Jones is having a MUCH better season thus far possession wise)

    It’s an interesting effect that in these examples not only does the rookie do worse, but the veteran also when apart. Don’t have time to check into any more examples though. Anyway, what Marty did while playing the toughs with Petry was pretty incredible given he was a rookie at the time.

    We have a player in Marincin, and the Oilers may actually be doing the right thing with him by letting him percolate in OKC longer, even if he is a better option than Nikitin, Schultz, Ference, Aulie. It’s a wasted season in the standings, but hopefully it will be worth the extra development for some of our key pieces in the future.

    If they trade both Marincin and Petry we’re so done. Hello Austin Matthews.

  122. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    Coyote ugly! And what’s worse, is they appear to be using Oiler game video from early in the season, for their tank job.

  123. Oddspell says:

    linkfromhyrule,

    Could this not be due to their different deployment? I would assume that Petry plays tough minutes and Marincin plays easy minutes relative to the minutes they play when together.

    edit: Wait, did Mary-Petry play top pairing while together? I guess I’ll need to check what Mary played while away from Petry.

  124. G Money says:

    spoiler: And was there a consensus on Draisaitl or Bennet when we include all the lists?

    I don’t recall there being one. I’m pretty sure Jon was implying the McKenzie list despite not saying so, because to bring in the other lists usually further takes the rankings away from consensus.

    It wasn’t Jon I was so much disagreeing with, which I thought was evident from my post, but the widespread use of the term consensus when it comes to draft lists when really this notion applies to very few prospects.

    I can’t speak for Jon’s intent, but I personally believe it’s pretty clear that anytime you use the word consensus, you cannot be referring to Bobby Mac’s list, which is a single list (despite being black box derived from the rankings of a group of scouts).

    I don’t think Drai or Bennett were “Consensus” players. In fact, I’m not convinced there were any consensus players that year, because the ratings were all over the map starting quite early e.g. the consensus “top 2” I think were Ekblad/Reinhart in that every list had them as either #1 or #2, but there wasn’t a consensus as to spot.

    Drai as I recall was ranked #3 – #5 on the various lists, and Bennett was #2 – #6. Memory could be faulty though.

    What is perhaps interesting is that my recollection is that RNH and Yak were both consensus #1 picks, but Hall was not (as in the whole Taylor-Tyler thing).

    As noted, we agree on the low draft picks. Depending on the year, there is NO consensus after the top few picks, and using “consensus #30” is meaningless. However, you could argue on a consensus range having validity.

  125. spoiler says:

    spoiler: It wasn’t Jon I was so much disagreeing with, which I thought was evident from my post, but the widespread use of the term consensus when it comes to draft lists when really this notion applies to very few prospects.

    Checking back there was no consensus on any of the draft rankings last year when including all the lists.

    There was however no list that ranked Draisaitl ahead of Bennett, which is probably Jon’s point, and that is a consensus, to be fair.

  126. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    spoiler: Checking back there was no consensus on any of the draft rankings last year when including all the lists.There was however no list that ranked Draisaitl ahead of Bennett, which is probably Jon’s point, and that is a consensus, to be fair.

    I think that’s what he was getting at. No major ranking service, as far as I can tell, had Draisaitl ranked above Bennett.

    http://www2.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=95289

    You can see in the bottom section some of the other major ranking services out there. Leon ranged from 4-6. Bennett was ranked from 1-4.

  127. linkfromhyrule says:

    Oddspell:
    linkfromhyrule,

    Could this not be due to their different deployment? I would assume that Petry plays tough minutes and Marincin plays easy minutes relative to the minutes they play when together.

    It most certainly could be! His next most common linemates were Schultz and Belov, so it was likely he was getting easier minutes. In all likelihood he was facing easier comp with better zone starts. But he was playing the toughs with Petry, top pairing role almost breaking even in CF%

    This year though?

    His most common usage was Marincin-Fayne against the toughs, and they were awful together. 41.3% together 62.2%, 48.1% apart respectively. Really not sure why Marincin-Petry was never revisited…. Petry must have asked not to play with that damn Slovakian! #conjecture

  128. spoiler says:

    G Money,

    Yet, the term consensus gets used when speaking of Bob’s list and later picks all the time. I know you and I get it. But considering how often the term “consensus” is used when referring to the draft rankings, when it is at best a very rare occurrence, tells me that we are probably among the minority.

  129. Jon K says:

    spoiler: Bobby Mac’s list isn’t a consensus but an average (possibly a weighted average).Sorry again, not picking on you jon, you’re a bright guy and have been contributing positively here for many many years. I always enjoy reading your thoughts.

    But the term consensus gets thrown around way too much here on a blog that is supposed to stand for the fastidiousness of Math.

    The misconception “consensus” gives us becomes even worse when we’re talking about 2nd and 3rd round prospects where the range of votes can vary 30-40 spots from top to bottom.

    I agree, there’s a lot of room for differences in interpretation of “consensus”. I just meant that, by my recollection, Draisaitl was never ranked #3 by an major scouting services. I thought everyone had him at #4. I would agree that the puck was defensible as being “in the range”, unlike some 2nd and 3rd round groaners of recent years.

    In any case, I’m tentatively positive about Green’s promotion based on his (albeit) short resume. I just can’t get over the lingering fear of the Oilers reaching for need.

  130. Ca$h-Money! says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”,

    Ya, there was basically a “consensus” top 4, but no consensus #1 except that, of the top 4, #1 wasn’t Drai.

    At a certain point it’s splitting hairs. Taking Drai at #3 isn’t really going off the board unless you’re trying to spin a narative. This is not a Jankowski moment, or taking McIlraith ahead of Fowler. It’s a modest deviation from ranking, which happens all the time and is, in my mind, acceptable outside of extreme scenarios.

    A closer comparison might be taking Barkov ahead of Drouin (or Jones for that matter, though plenty of people had him at #1).

  131. spoiler says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”: Ithink that’s what he was getting at. No major ranking service, as far as I can tell, had Draisaitl ranked above Bennett.

    http://www2.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=95289

    You can see in the bottom section some of the other major ranking services out there. Leon ranged from 4-6. Bennett was ranked from 1-4.

    That’s the page I used, when I wrote that post. I then even checked Pronman to be sure, since he doesn’t get cited by TSN, and he had Ekblad #1 (and was the only list that had him above #2), Bennett #2 and Drai … #7!

  132. Lowetide says:

    Are we down on Leon now, or just discussing his draft slotting before draft? He was no higher than 4 and as low as 7 (Pronman) with ISS also listing him No. 6

  133. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Lowetide,

    No. No one is down on Leon.

    We’re just splitting hairs discussing what was or wasn’t “consensus” when it came to the draft.

    As far as I know, not one person in this thread has said the Oilers made a reach for Leon or that they went walkabout or anything.

  134. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Ca$h-Money!,

    Yeah, I was just defending Jon K from the wrath of spoiler 😉

    I have no horse in this race.

  135. G Money says:

    Lowetide:
    Are we down on Leon now, or just discussing his draft slotting before draft? He was no higher than 4 and as low as 7 (Pronman) with ISS also listing him No. 6

    We’re just trying to reach consensus on what ‘consensus’ means.

  136. spoiler says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”:
    Lowetide,

    No. No one is down on Leon.

    We’re just splitting hairs discussing what was or wasn’t “consensus” when it came to the draft.

    As far as I know, not one person in this thread has said the Oilers made a reach for Leon or that they went walkabout or anything.

    I wouldn’t call arguing against the use of consensus (in general) splitting hairs, but yes the point being made here is what we are usually talking about is “average” and not “consensus”. And that’s important.

    No knock on Drai at all except I don’t know why Jon hates him so much.
    ;o)

  137. spoiler says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”:
    Yeah, I was just defending Jon K from the wrath of spoiler

    If only I had a cooler name, like…. KHAN!

  138. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    spoiler: If only I had a cooler name, like…. KHAN!

    That would be fantastic.

  139. G Money says:

    spoiler: If only I had a cooler name, like…. KHAN!

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”: That would be fantastic.

    I believe we’ve reached consensus.

    Please change your name to KHAN. Or better yet, “KHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAN! KHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAN! KHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAN!”

  140. kooler says:

    Hall—Nuge—Eberle
    Pouliot—Roy—Yakupov
    Hendricks—Gordon—Klinkhammer
    Pakarinen—Lander—Purcell

    Like to see a Pakarinen switch with Fraser.

  141. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    spoiler: I wouldn’t call arguing against the use of consensus (in general) splitting hairs, but yes the point being made here is what we are usually talking about is “average” and not “consensus”. And that’s important.No knock on Drai at all except I don’t know why Jon hates him so much.;o)

    You’re right that the terms “average” and “consensus” have been used interchangeably at times, and they are not the same thing.

    Somewhere along the line, the subject became about the McKenzie draft ranking. That’s probably my fault.

    Just like the whole Washington D.C. is not the Midwest, but Pittsburgh is borderline (which I agree with) thing.

    KHAAAAAAAN!

  142. Lowetide says:

    In reading the thread, SpOILer brings up an interesting point. I always thought of McKenzie’s list as adding up scouts votes (one counting as equal to all others) but that’s a conclusion I’ve drawn for sure and may not reflect reality.

  143. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Lowetide,

    Probably easy enough for someone like you to ask him on Twitter? “Hi Bob, do you average all your scouts’ rankings for your list and spit out a number, or does anything else go into it?”

    I, too, have always read his list to be an average ranking based on his list of scouts he uses.

  144. frjohnk says:

    Ran the numbers for our D men looking at Delta Corsi.

    PETRY, JEFF 2.15857182
    KLEFBOM, OSCAR 1.60035247
    FAYNE, MARK 0.659673693
    NIKITIN, NIKITA 0.432655147
    FERENCE, ANDREW -0.586698297
    SCHULTZ, JUSTIN -0.834338483

    0 means the player is hitting exactly what is expected of them – you would want players to be above 0 – as far as possible. These are guys outperforming their situational usage.

    A negative value means the player is failing to meet the expected results of their situation

    Only surprise is Nikitin but Fayne has been his partner 50% of the time this season. 15% of the time with Petry. That is why he is above 0.

    Nikitins CF goes down when he is away from Petry/Fayne. No surprise as when paired with Schultz ( 33% of the time) their CF together is 43%. 2 tire fires together = big trouble

    Looking at the numbers
    Petry plays OK with Ference and Nikitin, very well with Klefbom, Schultz, Marincin, Aulie, small samples with the last 3.

    Ference plays OK only with Petry. Not well with Schultz, OK with Fayne ( Fayne small sample size)

    Nikitin plays OK with Petry and Fayne. Its 2 tire fires with Schultz

    Klefbom plays well with Schultz and Petry, not so well with Fayne ( cuz they get the toughs together)

    Schultz has tire fires with Ference and Nikitin. Plays well with Klefbom

    Fayne plays OK with Nikitin, Ference ( Ference small sample size), not well with Klefbom ( again cuz they get the toughs together) not well with Marincin ( again cuz they probably got the toughs)

  145. Melman says:

    frjohnk,

    Which means we need Schultz and NN together to aim for McEichel!

  146. Melman says:

    G Money,

    Best name for a dog. When he’s running around the park and you need him to come: KHAAAAAAANNNNNNNN!

  147. spoiler says:

    Lowetide:
    In reading the thread, SpOILer brings up an interesting point. I always thought of McKenzie’s list as adding up scouts votes (one counting as equal to all others) but that’s a conclusion I’ve drawn for sure and may not reflect reality.

    I very much doubt there’s any weighting considering how deep his list goes, but there is the possibility a #1 ranking gets weighted more than say a #5 ranking.

    The point was that adding up all the scouts’ votes is not a consensus but an average.

  148. ashley says:

    For Draisaitl vs Bennett, I don’t think we really have any more information than we did on draft day. Two young players, still young. One injured since then, one that shouldn’t have been in the NHL with predictable results.

    As I thought on draft day, I think the Oilers made the wrong call. Draisaitl at 3 is a risky bet. Bennett was number 1 for much of his draft season, and still number 1 on several lists on draft day. Draisaitl was never there. He has size, and without that, I doubt the Oilers take him. That says it all for me. Skill, skill, skill.

    Still, I hope he shoots the lights out to make the bet pay off (compared to Bennett), but the odds are against him by historical standards. It’s likely Bennett makes the Oilers regret that pick.

    The Oilers got what they have always coveted. That elusive big C (as MacT even said minutes after drafting him). But now LT’s got him slotted in on the wing. Another talented winger to further unbalance this young cluster? I hope it doesn’t play out like that.

  149. russ99 says:

    frjohnk:

    Even more fuel for the dump Nikitin and Ference fire.

  150. frjohnk says:

    Melman:
    frjohnk,

    Which means we need Schultz and NN together to aim for McEichel!

    Or Schultz and Ference.

    Ference and Nikitin together have a CF of 33%. But that is a small sample size of 4 minutes.

    In all seriousness, if Ference and Nikitin were as good as they are getting paid, our defence would not be too bad. While there is no top pairing, we would have 4 number 3-4 d man. We could then afford to have a Klefbom and Schultz as a third pairing and I think they would do OK.

  151. Rondo says:

    Oilers took Draisaitl because they wanted a bigger centre. If they would have taken Sean Monahan a year earlier then they would have taken Bennett. Size decided the day.

  152. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    ashley,

    Draisaitl absolutely should be on wing to start his career. He should have been on wing this year if they were going to keep him in the NHL. However, he should not be bumped to the wing by another rookie (Strome). It should be a veteran 2C.

    My preferred scenario?

    40 games (at least) playing 1C in the AHL.
    Rest of the games playing on Thornton or Marleau or Sharp’s wing (in case one of those guys gets moved for cap reasons or for blowing it up reasons on the west coast).

    I don’t think LT was saying Draisaitl should be moved to wing on a permanent basis. Centre in the NHL is too hard to learn for rookies except for guys like Crosby, and even his face-off percentage sucked. Some day we’re going to realize just how much the hockey world has undervalued Nuge to this point because of the same thing.

  153. theres oil in virginia says:

    spoiler:
    There really is Oil in Virginia today… they’re practising in Arlington today.

    Better than an oil spill like last time! The shitty thing is that I’m blacked out of the Caps game, because somehow (300 miles away) I’m in the home network for the Caps. Fucking Ed Snider. I may try and cheat the system, though.

  154. Woogie63 says:

    2015-16 Roster.

    Lets align on this,

    First pick Unless it is McDavid, they go back to Junior or school

    Drisaital and Nurse joins Slepyshev, Kharia, Moroz, Musil, Oesterle, Simpson, Gernat and Brossoit in the AHL to develop in a development league

    And Marincin, Yakimov and Pakarinen after a year(s) In the development league get a peek to see if they are ready to contribute.

    No more short cuts.

  155. Pouzar says:

    Master plan:

    1. EDM finishes 30th
    2. Pitt misses playoffs, wins the draft lottery.
    3. NHL awards EDM the SC for the next 10 years.
    4. Hire me now. Thank me later.

  156. G Money says:

    ashley: As I thought on draft day, I think the Oilers made the wrong call. Draisaitl at 3 is a risky bet. Bennett was number 1 for much of his draft season, and still number 1 on several lists on draft day. Draisaitl was never there. He has size, and without that, I doubt the Oilers take him. That says it all for me. Skill, skill, skill.
    Still, I hope he shoots the lights out to make the bet pay off (compared to Bennett), but the odds are against him by historical standards. It’s likely Bennett makes the Oilers regret that pick.

    That’s an interesting retrospective.

    Some of the recent discussion has been around how picking based on just points per game outdoes most team or consensus scouting records.

    Sam Bennett = 1.59 ppg in the OHL on a very average Kingston team, where pretty much all the offense flowed through him.

    Leon Draisaitl = 1.64 ppg in the WHL on a very average Prince Albert team, where pretty much all the offense flowed through him.

    So while the ratings seemed to differ, the results on ice do not indicate a difference.

    Exacerbating that is the fact that Bennett at the Combine couldn’t do a single pullup. This lead to much misguided mockery about his being a weakling, when in fact the real problem was a serious shoulder problem. One that has now cost him almost a year of development at a very critical time. Injuries are an extremely common reason why promising players fail in development.

    Conversely, at already over 200 lbs and playing a puck possession style, Draisaitl brings much-needed size and puck possession ability to a roster lacking both at the C position, while Bennett would have added more of the undersized flash that the Oilers already possess on the wings.

    Bottom line: I would not have been unhappy if the Oilers had gotten Bennett because of his skill level (though the subsequent shoulder injury would have been Hockey Gord mockery at its finest), but the idea that there is a vast gulf between the players is false, and on balance I think the Oilers took the right player for the right reasons.

  157. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    theres oil in virginia: Better than an oil spill like last time!The shitty thing is that I’m blacked out of the Caps game, because somehow (300 miles away) I’m in the home network for the Caps.Fucking Ed Snider.I may try and cheat the system, though.

    I have an invite to a new nhl streaming site called ragecenter. It’s free while in beta stage, and I’ve watched two games on it and it worked well. Hearing that you’re shackled by Snider’s considerable corporate influence has hit a soft spot with me. If you have an email address that you want to put on here, I can send you an invite code.

  158. theres oil in virginia says:

    Auston Matthews ’16,

    Thanks for the offer. I’ve got the internet streaming package (I know, I’m feeding the beast), and I think I’ll just pretend to be in Nashville, TN, or some such place that isn’t blacked out for that game.

  159. Ca$h-Money! says:

    G Money,

    Exactly. The gulf was marginal, and where that’s the case, it’s not crazy to draft for need. Alternatively, even if the Drai decision isn’t based entirely on need, there is the issue of risk. Bennet was either weak (unlikely) or injured (more likely). Given that shoulder surgeries aren’t guaranteed to not affect future performance, I understand the caution directed at the player.

  160. Unicorns says:

    spoiler,

    “But the term consensus gets thrown around way too much here on a blog that is supposed to stand for the fastidiousness of Math. ”

    I would say this blog has an appreciation of the relevance of statistical analysis in hockey owing to LT’s love of baseball and Bill James, but I haven’t seen much fastidious math here or anywhere about the Oilers since teams hired all our beloved bloggers away. And even a lot of those guys were making stats mistakes because they weren’t statisticians.

    It’s too bad it’s so tricky. I wanted to get into it deeply but realized it’s pretty tough to be consistently accurate without a good background in stats. I suppose I’m not a genius like Barnes or Mehta so I can’t Wiki Bayesian statistics like Vic said he did and do anything useful for others with it. Or myself 🙂

  161. ashley says:

    G Money,

    Oh I didn’t mean to imply a “vast gulf” in talent between Leon and Bennett. Those are the words you have assigned to my opinion. They aren’t miles from each other, but pre-draft scouting services have been a reliable means of projecting these players at the top of the draft for years. That information at the time tells us Bennett will be the better talent. It was a risky move at that draft position, especially with a potential 1OV falling to 3. I hope it works out.

    That’s an interesting retrospective.

    What do you mean by this? I don’t think we have any meaningful new information than what we had on draft day, and the opinion I wrote above was virtually identical to the one I wrote on draft day.

    Bennett’s shoulder injury is a common, minor issue that many players his age deal with (RNH recently for us). Unfortunately the recovery and rehab takes a long time, but I don’t see how it changes anything in this comparison. I expect Bennett to have a long and productive career.

  162. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    theres oil in virginia: I’ll just pretend to be in Nashville

    If that still works, great. I used that method during the 48 game season.

    The ragecenter (dumb name) steams are very good, and I’m going to audition it as long as I can. It’s hard to compete with hockeystreams though, because you can get almost any game in the world, including Olympics and WJs. They even offer things like TSN’s WJ preview show, and playoff preview shows.

  163. Jon K says:

    ashley:
    For Draisaitl vs Bennett, I don’t think we really have any more information than we did on draft day.Two young players, still young.One injured since then, one that shouldn’t have been in the NHL with predictable results.

    As I thought on draft day, I think the Oilers made the wrong call.Draisaitl at 3 is a risky bet.Bennett was number 1 for much of his draft season, and still number 1 on several lists on draft day.Draisaitl was never there.He has size, and without that, I doubt the Oilers take him.That says it all for me.Skill, skill, skill.

    Still, I hope he shoots the lights out to make the bet pay off (compared to Bennett), but the odds are against him by historical standards.It’s likely Bennett makes the Oilers regretthat pick.

    The Oilers got what they have always coveted.That elusive big C (as MacT even said minutes after drafting him).But now LT’s got him slotted in on the wing.Another talented winger to further unbalance this young cluster?I hope it doesn’t play out like that.

    This summarizes my fears concerning Draisaitl and Bennett.

    There were a number of factors suggesting that Bennett might have better potential. Younger, better history of scoring earlier, well-rounded game to go along with offensive excellence, great skater, ranked high for most of the season but fell after “Pullup-Gate”.

    Of course, my predilection to second-guess all Oiler management decisions means I must now take each and every opportunity to dump all over Draisaitl. Shame, seems like a good kid. (I’m kidding.)

  164. PunjabiOil says:

    This bothers me.

    Jim Matheson ‏@NHLbyMatty 2m2 minutes ago

    “In year’s past, I’ve always been mentioned as guy who won’t be traded, now my name is creeping up in rumours.”Taylor Hall.#oilers.

  165. Ca$h-Money! says:

    PunjabiOil,

    Responce:

    Well Taylor, that’s going to happen sometimes when things don’t seem to be getting better. Hopefully those are just rumours.

  166. gogliano says:

    The fact that Drais was always ranked 4 in an ordinal ranking tells us very little if — and this is what the consensus seemed to be — there was very little to no gap between 3 and 4. On a scale of 100, scouts might have viewed Ekblad/Reinhart as 100, Bennett as 90, and Draisatl as 89 (or even 90 — these ranking agencies hate ties).

    It was basically pick’em that was obscured by our love of ordinal rankings. Or that’s what the language of the scouts seemed to suggest to me, at least.

  167. Capitalist says:

    Delta Corgis

    Good gord…..

  168. fifthcartel says:

    Lagesson commits to UMAss of the NCAA

    DBQ Fighting Saints ‏@fightingsaints 29m29 minutes ago Burlington, IA
    Congrats to our own William Lagesson (@lagesson7) who committed to UMass! He will join the Minutemen next season.

    Slepyshev looks like he is having a really solid season for only playing 11:34 a game. All of his 12 goals are even-strength, too.

  169. rickithebear says:

    fifthcartel: Slepyshev looks like he is having a really solid season for only playing 11:34 a game. All of his 12 goals are even-strength, too.

    Uh Yeah! up top!

    LW Slepyshev 6′ 1″ 195lb since start of Dec is getting 13:38 per game.
    Generating 3.47 EVP/60 in KHL @ 20
    1ppg at Spengler

  170. frjohnk says:

    The significance of Age

    Does it matter how old a player is when he puts up big numbers in Junior? Obviously it does – Wayne Gretzky had 70 goals and 112 assists in 64 games for the Sault Ste Marie Greyhounds as a 17-year-old in 1977-78. Seven years later, Dan Hodgson had the exact same statistics when he was a 20-year-old playing for the Prince Albert Raiders. Hodgson was drafted 83rd overall despite his prolific scoring, and had 74 points in a 114-game NHL career. (He is still active in the Swiss National League.) At age 22, Hodgson had 57 NHL points; Gretzky had already scored 1024 points between the NHL and WHA.

    In the aggregate, players reach their peak performance level at age 22 and hold it for several years. What’s most significant about this chart is what it implies about the age at which a junior player posts a particular PPG. A 17-year-old player with 2 PPG in Junior can expect, on average, to score 1.5 PPG in the NHL at age 22, while an 18-year-old Junior doing the same thing has an NHL projection of 1.0 PPG, which is 40 fewer points over the course of a season. This is the difference between elite players (Joe Sakic, Denis Savard, Dale Hawerchuk) and much lesser players (Jimmy Carson, Terry Yake, Mike Bullard.)

    This is very significant for the NHL Entry Draft. An entire year’s worth of players become eligible for the draft, but the players born earlier in the year have a peak value 35% lower than players born late in the year. This is obvious when you consider the difference that one year of physical maturity can make at age 17. In evaluating a player, it is critical to keep in mind his exact age, down to his month of birth.
    http://www.behindthenet.ca/projecting_to_nhl.php

    There is a 9 month gap between Draisaitl and Bennett. I have said it before, if born 6 weeks earlier, Draisaitl would have been eligible for the 2013 draft.

    Bennett’s 17 year old season projects 98 points in the NHL as a 22 year old

    Draisaitls 17 year old season projects 56 points in the NHL as a 22 year old
    Draisaitls 18 year old season projects 67 points in the NHL as a 22 year old

    These numbers are just guidelines for these players future on what past history has told us. There is always variance.

    I also believe a major injury during a peak development time hinders a players ceiling.

    We left skill on the table at the draft in 2014 in exchange for some extra size.

    My belief is that Bennett will become a good to really good number 1 center ( I think the injury impacts his development somewhat)
    Draisaitl will become a really good number 2 center.

  171. G Money says:

    ashley: Oh I didn’t mean to imply a “vast gulf” in talent between Leon and Bennett. Those are the words you have assigned to my opinion.

    Hmmm, well, let’s review your words:

    … I think the Oilers made the wrong call. Draisaitl at 3 is a risky bet.
    … hope he shoots the lights out to make the bet pay off (compared to Bennett), but the odds are against him by historical standards. It’s likely Bennett makes the Oilers regretthat pick.

    Not sure how you interpret it, but “wrong call”, “risky bet”, “regretthat pick” don’t sound like you’re arguing about a marginal difference between the two, sure sounds like you expect a pretty large difference to me.

    After all, the only way that Bennett makes the Oilers regret the pick is if he’s WAY better than Draisaitl. But the reality is, Bennett is probably a riskier bet than Draisaitl.

    We’re talking about two guys who both put up >1.6 ppg in the CHL (Draisaitl being the bigger point getter). Draisaitl’s points were fairly earned on a team with no offensive support at all. Hard to assign much “risk” to a guy with that background.

    On the other hand, you can talk about skill and scout’s assessments all you want, but I’d say whatever benefit Bennett’s skill and age advantage brings is offset by the risk of his size and his shoulder issue.

    If Bennett is marginally better, as their numbers suggest he might be (no sure thing), the Oilers don’t regret the pick at all. Draisaitl is the right pick. They don’t need another speedy shifty player that’s going to get run over in the Western conference, they need somebody who can hold his own physically against the behemoths of the West.

    (I called your retrospective “interesting” because I understand where you’re coming from but don’t agree with you)

  172. Lowetide says:

    G Money: I had Bennett before Leon, but it was close and there’s always that injury worry (the Brule factor). We’ll see, miles to go and hopefully they both have long careers.

  173. G Money says:

    frjohnk,

    Here’s the money statement from your article: “There is a caveat: younger players are a bit less predictable than older players. For a 17-year-old, the middle 50% range of the projection is from 45% to 98%, while for a 20-year-old, it’s from 17% to 33%. This wide range reflects how unpredictable future performance is for NHL players.

    Makes sense logically – for a 17 year old, many more things can go wrong on the path to the NHL, no matter how gifted they seem at a young age.

    Injuries are an obvious one.

    Or they don’t put on the size or the strength they need to compete at the NHL level.

    Bennett’s already lost most of an absolutely critical year of development to injury.That’s why labeling him as some sort of ‘sure thing’ is silly.

  174. G Money says:

    Lowetide,

    Agreed. Key point – having Bennett ahead of Draisaitl is quite different from suggesting that one is a risky bet and one isn’t.

    Even as Bennett is a Flames draft pick, I NEVER wish these young men anything but the best in trying to make it to the best league in the world…

  175. sliderule says:

    frjohnk,

    The age factor when you look at Marner against say P Kane makes what he is doing in OHL all the more impressive.

    At his current scoring rate he is going to get about the same total as Kane who was 6 months older in his draft year.

    When you watch this kid play you can’t help but think of Kane.

  176. Woodguy says:

    ashley:
    For Draisaitl vs Bennett, I don’t think we really have any more information than we did on draft day.Two young players, still young.One injured since then, one that shouldn’t have been in the NHL with predictable results.

    As I thought on draft day, I think the Oilers made the wrong call.Draisaitl at 3 is a risky bet.Bennett was number 1 for much of his draft season, and still number 1 on several lists on draft day.Draisaitl was never there.He has size, and without that, I doubt the Oilers take him.That says it all for me.Skill, skill, skill.

    Still, I hope he shoots the lights out to make the bet pay off (compared to Bennett), but the odds are against him by historical standards.It’s likely Bennett makes the Oilers regretthat pick.

    The Oilers got what they have always coveted.That elusive big C (as MacT even said minutes after drafting him).But now LT’s got him slotted in on the wing.Another talented winger to further unbalance this young cluster?I hope it doesn’t play out like that.

    I heard today (not sure on what show) someone compare Bennett’s skaing to McJesus.

    Elite edgework apparently.

    That’s gold.

    Just watch Nuge’s forecheck. Never far from his check because he can skate and direct himself on his edges better than more players.

    Turns on a dime and gets the puck going the other way in a ridiculous fashion.

    I know the Oilers hired David Pelletier as their skating coach.

    Strudwick recently said after Pelletier taugh him how to use his edges that he skates better now than when he played in the NHL.

    Bennett has high end skating and above average offence.

    Draisatl is a much, much different player.

    He held Actual NHL Dmen at bay with his big hockey ass and reach as a 19 year old with 20 games experience.

    He’ll be the type of guy to hold the puck and draw 2 defenders to him (because only one won’t get the puck) and then flip the puck to an open shot with a flick of his backhand and the puck arrives on time, flat,, with the logo pointing at the net.

    A lot like the way Thorton plays actually.

    Edit: And Thorton’s done ok in the “Big Bad” Western Conference for a while now.

  177. McSorley33 says:

    National Post:

    Toronto Maple Leaf’s historic ineptitude vs Edmonton Oilers permanent rebuild:
    Canada’s 10 most tormented fan bases

    http://news.nationalpost.com/2015/01/19/toronto-maple-leafs-historic-ineptitude-vs-edmonton-oilers-permanent-rebuild-canadas-10-most-tormented-fan-bases/

  178. sliderule says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”,

    I know you are being sarcastic and teasing but that would be so oilers it’s painfull.

  179. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    Woodguy: Strudwick recently said after Pelletier taugh him how to use his edges that he skates better now than when he played in the NHL.

    Interesting – because of Strud’s ability to improve at his age, and because he received time with Pelletier before Tricky Niki has.

  180. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear:
    Lawson Crouse: age based NHL performance:
    26-28 Even goals per season top 5 NHL with repeats Benn; Kessel; Pacioretty
    11-13 EVA per season

    The kid has played his Last 15 gm:
    He played
    9/15 With .95 PPG center Polesello
    8/15 with.70 PPG Lammiko
    5/15 with .50 PPG Shutt
    3/15 with .36 PPG verbeek
    2/15 with .85 ppg Kujawinski
    1/15 each with .58 PPG pauwley
    1/15 with .58 PPG McGlynn

    63 % with .83 PPG players
    37% with .47 PPG players
    which equates to .73 PPG players for the whole time.
    Crouse is getting .77PPG

    Crouse did not play from Nov 30th on.
    till WJC 3points in 7 GM

    His last 6 Gm are 4g 3A playing
    4/6 Lammiko .70 PPG 1.00 PPG playing with Crouse
    3/6 Polessello .96 PPG 1.33PPG playing with Crouse
    3/6 Verbeek .36 PPG1.00 PPG with Crouse
    2/6 Shutt .50 PPG 1.50 PPG with Crouse

    .64 PPG of players averaged 1.13 PPG with post WJC Crouse.
    A 77% increase in production with him.

    This Kid is playing with a shite collection of players and pushing the Production.

    Fu……………. Me generational talent every were on this draft.

    Can you do the same for DrySaddle and his line mates his draft year?

  181. SwedishPoster says:

    Very interesting topics today.

    A couple of tidbits from my pov.

    Someone sort of compared Yak and Robert Nilsson, they’re nothing alike Robert is dumb as a toothbrush, lazy, spoiled and as a youngster a bit of a penis. That’s not Yak, different on ice skillsets as well.

    Filip Forsberg was never a center in junior and was not drafted as such. On a lot of draft lists he is mentioned as a center but that must have been a typo or someone thinking “Forsberg that should be a center” and it becoming “common knowledge”. He has some skills that might translate to center but he hasn’t played the position consistently for years. The reason he dropped was question marks about production, he dominanted games but his numbers never took off against better competition. Until this season.

    I’ve never understood the hype around Bennett really. I’m sure he’ll be a fine NHLer but I see a middle sixer, not the top end talent everyone else sees, he was behind both Drai and Nylander and tied with Ehlers on my draftlist. I don’t think his offense will be as prominent in the NHL. We’ll have to wait and see I guess. It’s not like I know anything about actual scouting just my feeling when watching him.

    I like Drais vision, strength on the puck, boardwork and hockey sense more. If you’re a believer in RelCorsi as a good way to evaluate individual performance, I’m not as bullish as I know others on here are, Drai did however do well in that regard and him having a PDO of 93 when on the ice might have put him in a worse light than he deserved. His lousy S% probably helped those numbers along and he clearly needs to work on his shot but I doubt he’ll shoot below 3% for many stretches of his career.

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