OILERS AT CAPITALS, G47 2014-15

Are we seeing the end of the line for the Hall—Nuge—Eberle line? Will MacT trade Hall this summer? Eberle? It seems only Nuge is safe, along with two men in junior (Nurse and Draisaitl) and a pick on paper that may be the next saviour. I absolutely hope Craig MacTavish stays the course with that trio but am not at all confident he will. That is perhaps the most difficult thing to accept—these long years of wandering in the wilderness, only to watch an Oiler from the glory days send the future out to sea. It’s almost impossible to ponder. Young Hall is 23 and most certainly contemplating his future here in the hinterland:

  • Hall:  “My only control over getting traded is how I play. If I ever wanted to ask for a trade that would be my responsibility, but I don’t feel like leaving just yet, especially under the condition I’m playing right now. I wouldn’t feel very good about that.” Source

Doesn’t sound like the thoughts of a settled man to me. Being a fan of a losing team is exhausting because they do the wrong thing almost without error. Other teams can look forward to the trade deadline and summer with hope, Oilers fans are curled in the fetal position behind the sofa. Trading Hall is the wrong thing. One hopeful sign? The coach:

  • Nelson: “I like Taylor’s game right now. He’s conforming to the team philosophy, playing the way we want him to play. I’m not concerned with goals. I think they’ll come. As long as he’s competing hard and trying to do the right things, that’s all I’m concerned about.” Source

I’m as much onside with winning the lottery as anyone, but let’s remember that Taylor Hall and Nuge and Yakupov were hard won, too. If Taylor Hall becomes yesterday’s papers then it’s an epic fail—beyond even the historic idiocy since 2006. Fans are on Hall in a big way now, if he becomes the whipping boy (and asks for a trade) where is this organization then? Todd Nelson winning hockey games may be vital to the future of this young cluster. And make no mistake: Taylor  Hall will be fine. I’m not at all certain about this Oilers organization. A falling dollar, new building on the way and seemingly no one in management who can stand up and say “Taylor Hall and Nuge are the center of the cluster and they’re moved over my dead body” despite the rumblings.

The star of this Edmonton Oilers team today is not Taylor Hall and it is not Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. It is, sadly, Bob Nicholson. Until someone from the Edmonton Oilers stands in front of a microphone and tells the fan base the current cluster is the one they’re moving forward with, the mind is left to wander. Is Craig MacTavish devoted to this group or the one he’s drafting (Nurse, Leon, McDavid)? Is he in charge? Is Bob Nicholson making hockey decisions? Is Bob Nicholson the new Kevin Lowe?

Are we ONCE AGAIN moving the cluster back? Again? Really? The fans have a right to know if the Edmonton Oilers plan to move back the center of this cluster yet again. We wait.

winquist ferguson 1415

BARONS BOXCARS IN JANUARY

  1. Andrew Miller 9gp, 4-7-11
  2. Iiro Pakarinen 9gp, 6-4-10
  3. Matt Ford 9gp, 3-4-7
  4. Josh Winquist 7gp, 3-3-6
  5. Bogdan Yakimov 9gp, 4-2-6
  6. Jordan Oesterle 8gp, 0-5-5
  7. Jason Williams 9gp, 3-2-5
  8. Kellen Jones 9gp, 2-3-5
  9. Steve Pinizzotto 3gp, 1-3-4
  10. Ryan Hamilton 3gp, 1-3-4
  11. David Musil 9gp, 1-3-4
  12. Martin Marincin 9gp, 0-4-4
  13. Brad Hunt 9gp, 0-4-4
  14. Curtis Hamilton 8gp, 2-1-3
  15. Jujhar Khaira 9gp, 1-2-3
  16. Connor Jones 9gp, 1-2-3
  17. Martin Gernat 6gp, 0-2-2
  18. Mitch Moroz 4gp, 0-1-1
  19. Dillon Simpson 8gp, 0-1-1
  20. Brandon Davidson 8gp, 0-0-0
  21. Travis Ewanyk 8gp, 0-0-0
  22. Richard Bachman 5gp, 1.11 .961
  23. Laurent Brossoit 5gp, 4.12 .878

Actual prospects underlined. Who would you call up? For me Pakarinen is No. 1 but also interesting are college man Andrew Miller and former second-rounder Curtis Hamilton. Edmonton has to make a decision on Hamilton so a few games in the show may help (although one imagines they have their answer). Two names emerging who we might see this and next year: Bogdan Yakimov and Jordan Oesterle. And Josh Winquist keeps making Bob Green look like a genius.

This is terrific news, as the Oilers need an infusion of skilled wingers and this young chap from Penza looks absolutely ready for the jump to NA pro hockey. His current boxcars (47gp, 12-7-19) suss out of the NHLE machine at 82gp, 16-10-26 and we have to keep in mind the TOI would be keeping that down most of this season. We don’t have EV TOI, but his total playing time this year divided by points means he’s at 2.10/60 overall (after seasons of 1.21, 1.64, 1.30) and he’s most certainly turned some kind of a corner. It’s easy to forget that the adoption of Russia as a draft resource is extremely recent but the payoff could be handsome if the two Yak’s and Slipslappy turn into useful NHL players. Here’s hoping Bob Green doesn’t shut down that pipeline.

Willliam Lagesson looks like a really good pick where Edmonton got him (Pronman had him No. 60, Oilers grabbed him No. 91) and he will play in the second best division of the NCAA according to Rob Vollman’s NHLE (Hockey East).

One of the areas I hope Bob Green helps this team is in the area of draft careening. Example: The 2014 draft is full of guys Edmonton doesn’t have to make a decision on. Leon Draisaitl and Keven Bouchard are the only junior kids and they’ve already signed Leon, so most of the 2014 Oilers’ kids won’t have to be decided on for some time (Lagesson, Nagelvoort, Coughlin, Vesel). The problem is this: You’re (once again!) cutting so much out of the pool that the one decision (‘let’s take a bunch of guys who we can decide on later’) means Edmonton was never going to draft Chase De Leo or Nelson Nogier or Michael Bunting or Richard Nejezchleb or Jaedon Descheneau or Rourke Chartier or Austin Carroll or Spencer Watson or Jacob Middleton. Who does that? Who says ‘we’re not going to draft from the best possible pool because then we’ll be forced to make decisions on them in two years and we already have too many prospects we like’? WHO? It’s crazy. Draft the best player available and if it means you can’t sign one of these cats because of the 50-man restriction well you’ll just have to get creative on it. If Nicholson is any good at forensics, the answer to “what was behind the decision to take Liam Coughlin over Austin Carroll?’ would have been an interesting bit of sound bite.

wood in penelope

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

10 this morning, TSN 1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Jonathan Willis, Oilers Nation and Cult of Hockey. We’ll talk about numbers (so far) under the Todd Nelson regime.
  • Guy Flaming, Pipeline Show. 2015 draft, Prospects game this week, Greg Chase.
  • Travis Yost, TSN. What is the value of Jeff Petry and what will he garner on the deadline market?
  • Not Sure. I have a few irons in the fire. Hey, seriously, I have asked people!

10-1260 text, @Lowetide_ on twitter. Talk soon!

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322 Responses to "OILERS AT CAPITALS, G47 2014-15"

« Older Comments
  1. book¡je says:

    Petry and Nuge had great seats to see that goal.

  2. PaperDesigner says:

    book¡je:
    Petry and Nuge had great seats to see that goal.

    THEY’RE THE PROBLEM! TRADE THEM BOTH NOW!!!

  3. Dominoiler says:

    Why cant this team play defense?!.. no one picked up backstrum on that goal,.. no one picked up beagle on his either.. the oilers are brutal..

  4. steveb12344 says:

    book¡je:
    Petry and Nuge had great seats to see that goal.

    Petry has got to clear Backstrom out of the crease there, not just indifferently glide away from him.

  5. russ99 says:

    Dominoiler,

    Yeah, leaving the crease way, way too much.

    Still, not much more we could have done with that one. Even with a defenseman In the picture, that’s tough to stop unless you tie up the stick.

    Let’s get one back.

  6. russ99 says:

    Any chance they saw something on tape? They’ve been putting 2 men in the crease on offense all night.

  7. Lowetide says:

    Knee? Or ankle?

  8. Ben says:

    EBERKNEE!!!

  9. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    Lowetide:
    Knee? Or ankle?

    McJesus!

  10. godot10 says:

    PaperDesigner:
    How does putting Nugent-Hopkins in a position where he will handle the puck least of anyone on the powerplay help, well, anyone?

    In a lost season, in pursuit of the Holy Grail of McEichel, to experiment and see if Nugent-Hopkins can learn the bumper position in that power play alignment is not the worst idea. The experiment may fail..

  11. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    PaperDesigner:
    How does putting Nugent-Hopkins in a position where he will handle the puck least of anyone on the powerplay help, well, anyone?

    According to Tricky Niki and Jultz, the puck is actually a grenade. Best to keep him away from it.

  12. Lowetide says:

    Schultz defended that one-on-one not at all.

  13. RexLibris says:

    Todd Nelson must has been stopped.

  14. Ben says:

    YANKLEPOV!

  15. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide:
    Schultz defended that one-on-one not at all.

    How very zen of him.

    “Stand still, grasshopper, and the play will come to it’s own conclusion”

  16. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    Ben:
    YANKLEPOV!

    You’ve been saving that one up for a while now, haven’t you?

  17. Captain's Log says:

    Holy hell what a shot.

  18. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    Purcie!

  19. Lowetide says:

    Purcell. WOW!

  20. kooler says:

    6 PPs one shot by NN.

    To much skill on the PP..even my 8 year old was yelling shoot.

  21. PaperDesigner says:

    Soooo… Todd Nelson is still the saviour from Eakins, who was clearly the primary problem with the team, right?

    Couldn’t have anything to do with a badly constructed roster. Or awful goaltending.

  22. PaperDesigner says:

    My feed is behind. I just saw the Purcell goal. Nice shot. No way that the Oilers should be within one goal at this point.

  23. Lowetide says:

    Lander gets another assist. When do we consider him saved?

  24. PaperDesigner says:

    Lowetide:
    Lander gets another assist. When do we consider him saved?

    A goal would help.

  25. JamesL says:

    Lowetide,

    When he notches his first goal of the season, methinks. Loving what I see so far, though.

    Anton Lander is having a Marincinesque (Winter ’14 edition) run here.

  26. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    Lowetide:
    Lander gets another assist. When do we consider him saved?

    When he simultaneously beats up an opponent while scoring a goal.

  27. PunjabiOil says:

    Nelson seemed disappointed they tied it up

  28. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    That was a great sequence. The plays by Hall, Poo and Nuge were great!

  29. steveb12344 says:

    RexLibris:
    Todd Nelson must has been stopped.

    NOBODY can stop Todd Nelson!

  30. JamesL says:

    Wow; the Oilers do not deserve this comeback, but I’ll take it.

  31. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Todd Nelson cannot be stopped. Love how he just looks up at the clock, no smile, and is like. Hmm, one minute left to get one more.

  32. Lowetide says:

    Never, at any time, did I think Edmonton would get a point from this game. Todd Nelson cannot be stopped.

  33. JamesL says:

    PunjabiOil,

    I noticed that, too. You could see the pain on his face… Bizarre.

  34. PaperDesigner says:

    There is absolutely no way that the Oilers deserve a point.

  35. PaperDesigner says:

    Lowetide:
    Never, at any time, did I think Edmonton would get a point from this game. Todd Nelson cannot be stopped.

    I can only conclude that Todd Nelson is random chance’s Chosen One.

  36. PunjabiOil says:

    I noticed that, too. You could see the pain on his face… Bizarre.

    Just watched Nelson’s expression again. He mouths “fuck”

  37. Lowetide says:

    I have to say there appears to be a new maturity with this team. Those one goal reg losses are getting to over time. Running up that hill!

  38. RexLibris says:

    RexLibris:
    Todd Nelson must has been stopped.

    *retracted*

    🙂

  39. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    russ99: Klefbom took Schultz’s man closest to him.

    Ask why the forward down low left the area to chase the puck?

    Besides, Jultz just blocked a shot on the high left side, so is he supposed to warp speed back in front of the opponent on the right side of the crease and tie him up?

    When Justin screws up, I’ll be right along with you, but not in this case.

    Hendricks did screw up on that play, too. Yes. He and Klefbom both moved to the man with the puck then. One should have stayed. We saw different things then, I’m not pushing any anti-Jultz daily teardown, like you said, though, so you can disagree with me and point out your difference in opinion without painting me with some sort of blanket brush like that?

  40. kooler says:

    JamesL,

    He was trying to hold back the “f#&$ yah!”

  41. Tarkus says:

    This Bettman point pulls the Oilers out of the league basement and squarely into 29th place.

    Yay?

  42. Captain's Log says:

    PunjabiOil,

    I noticed that, too. You could see the pain on his face… Bizarre.

    Well as a coach maybe he feels like the lessons that can be taught after this kind of loss have disappeared. Hard to teach when poor play still results in a point or more

  43. jimmers2 says:

    PunjabiOil,

    He just realized that it is his anniversary and he forgot to send flowers.

  44. Pouzar says:

    Lowetide:
    Lander gets another assist. When do we consider him saved?

    When you stop saying he doesn’t bring much offense? ;P

  45. russ99 says:

    Props getting at least the Bettman point on the road vs. a good team.

    Still lots to work on, but this looks like progress to me.

  46. Captain's Log says:

    Stay in front of the net there RNH!

  47. russ99 says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”,

    Sorry, dude. I didn’t mean to point a finger at anyone specifically , just lashed out at the first “Jultz being Jultz” post.

    Man it would be sweet to pull this one out,

  48. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Does Mark Fayne mean “Steve Smith?”

  49. LMHF#1 says:

    Different hockey team out there. Imagine if they had a goalie and could drop Schultz, Ference, Nikitin.

  50. RexLibris says:

    Yakupov in the SO?

  51. russ99 says:

    Oh man, so close!

    Good to see Ebs and Roy back out there.

  52. Lowetide says:

    Pouzar: When you stop saying he doesn’t bring much offense?;P

    Well, never. 🙂

  53. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    russ99,

    All good. I apologize, too for the careless post. And yes, Hopefully Fasth can repeat his performance from Florida in the skills competition. Pulling for these guys to win another here.

  54. RexLibris says:

    LMHF#1:
    Different hockey team out there. Imagine if they had a goalie and could drop Schultz, Ference, Nikitin.

    Then how would we recognize them as the Edmonton Oilers?

  55. Washingtron says:

    Bet Yak suddenly feels better

  56. russ99 says:

    Yak time!!!

  57. jake70 says:

    PaperDesigner: A goal would help.

    Like the beautiful tip by Vande Velde in Philly a minute ago? #6 for the former Oiler. He can’t be stopped….:-)

  58. Washingtron says:

    Our goalie just split into two goalies after that deke. The three headed monster is back!

  59. russ99 says:

    One too many moves.

  60. LMHF#1 says:

    Sign Derek Roy?

    Sign Derek Roy.

  61. LMHF#1 says:

    Wow. Different hockey team man.

  62. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Whoop, whoop. A two game win “streak.”

  63. RexLibris says:

    Nice win for Fasth.

    Glad to see him get a few.

  64. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    The last time they won b2b on the road? Anyone?

  65. Pouzar says:

    Playoffs!

  66. JamesL says:

    Teddy Purcell — there’s a bit of a player there. Not $4.5m’s worth of player, but…

  67. russ99 says:

    Yes!!

  68. Washingtron says:

    Take that Buffalo!!!

    No wait, give that back! Come back here youuuuu!!!

  69. godot10 says:

    Might not have to change the goaltenders next year, if Nelson fixes Fasth too. One might be able to sign him to a 2-year deal for very reasonable money.

  70. russ99 says:

    We’re 2-0 since I got Gamecenter, so blame me for no McDavid.

  71. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    I much prefer these things called “wins” than those other things we’ve been doing the past few years.
    Keep it up, guys!

  72. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Auston Matthews ’16:
    The last time they won b2b on the road? Anyone?

    November 7th, November 9th. @ Buffalo, @ NYR. Fasth got both those wins, too.

  73. Lowetide says:

    russ99:
    We’re 2-0 since I got Gamecenter, so blame me for no McDavid.

    We’re not that mad. 🙂

  74. Dicky94 says:

    They are a complete different team under Nelson. Makes you wonder where they would be today if they had given him the job instead Eakins. I say keep him and the wins coming!

  75. Ben says:

    Tychkowski, on Nelson’s reaction to the tying goal: “Analytics guy literally told Nelson that scoring *fewer* goals than the other team wins you the game. Insanity!”

  76. LadiesloveSmid says:

    godot10:
    Might not have to change the goaltenders next year, if Nelson fixes Fasth too. One might be able to sign him to a 2-year deal for very reasonable money.

    maybe on Mike Morrison duty, to step in for shootout.

    still let in 4 of 24

  77. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”: November 7th, November 9th.

    Dang, I should really pay attention. It’s really just this weak eastern conf then?

  78. jzed says:

    Nelson is next years coach. Whatever is left of this year’s roster after the summer has already bought in. The OKC grads are his already. The magic beans from the draft will be used wisely or sent back or down. If the ‘braintrust’ gets in his way, keep Nelson, jettison everyone else. In Mr. Forensics we trust.

  79. MrEd says:

    Holy. RNH so cheeky on that GTG. So brilliant.

  80. blainer says:

    That game was upside down… We are usually the team that blows that lead and loses in the shootout. You can almost feel the mood on the team is sooo much better since nelson has taken over from Mact.. Impressed with Yak’s ice time as well..

  81. Lowetide says:

    jzed:
    Nelson is next years coach. Whatever is left of this year’s roster after the summer has already bought in. The OKC grads are his already. The magic beans from the draft will be used wisely or sent back or down. If the ‘braintrust’ gets in his way, keep Nelson, jettison everyone else. In Mr. Forensics we trust.

    Agree, suspect Nelson is the coach next season. This group WAS better by the underlying numbers and would NOT turn north. Nelson is a part of the turn north and credit where due.

  82. Kitchener says:

    Lowetide:
    Lander gets another assist. When do we consider him saved?

    He still needs to accept McJesus into his heart.

  83. anonymous says:

    Mact should not be allowed to make any more decisions. I have no faith in his talent evaluation and contracts clearly aren’t his thing. Sacrificing another season to coaching continuity and deciding against veteran depth at centre should be enough as it is.

    Nelson should stay but someone else needs to handle trade deadline sell off.

  84. Ivan says:

    Can we say that Lander finally pissed a drop?

  85. Lowetide says:

    Ivan:
    Can we say that Lander finally pissed a drop?

    Yep.

  86. oliveoilers says:

    Lowetide:
    I have to say there appears to be a new maturity with this team. Those one goal reg losses are getting to over time. Running up that hill!

    Kate Bush reference? I think you have tomorrow’s title. Running up that hill!

  87. MrEd says:

    Lowetide,

    Coach Nelson is the man. The Man.

  88. MrEd says:

    Like Manna. So good.

  89. Adam Wu says:

    Mact should not be allowed to make any more decisions. I have no faith in his talent evaluation and contracts clearly aren’t his thing.

    His evaluation of bottom 6 forwards has been absolutely stellar. There isn’t much to complain about his evaluation of top 6 forwards either, though Edmonton already had a fair bit of that in house when he took over so there was less for him to do.

    FINDING top 6 forwards, ie C, to evaluate has been his problem, it would seem.

    And evaluating D….

    So….

    The solution, obviously, is to add a computer and a dog. The computer will search for D talent using advanced stat metrics only (which while not perfect, would be an instant upgrade on how the Oilers have been doing business in this area right now). MacT’s job will be to repair the computer when it breaks. The dog is there to keep MacT from touching the computer at any other time.

  90. go_oil says:

    Nelson brought the mantra #greasybarons to Oklahoma. Hopefully he continues to groom #greasyoilers in Edmonton.

  91. Adam Wu says:

    I have to say there appears to be a new maturity with this team. Those one goal reg losses are getting to over time. Running up that hill!

    Should the Oilers as they are now ever get to the promised land, the narrative of the team will, doubtless, be re-written as a template on the Hero’s Journey.

    The Call – First round draft picks
    Refusal of the Call – Halls’ various “maturity” and “leadership” questions
    Premature death of the mentor – the flushing of all the veterans who could have mentored the kids
    Descent into Hell – where we are now.

    etc.

    I just wish they’d stop taking that “Descent into Hell” thing so literally!

  92. Adam Wu says:

    So… instead of McJesus, it is Christ Nelson now?

    I’m pretty ok with that, actually. A savior in hand is worth two in the bush, as they say….

  93. Магия 10 says:

    Lowetide:
    Never, at any time, did I think Edmonton would get a point from this game. Todd Nelson cannot be stopped.

    1 win away from true .500 as Master and Commander.

  94. dangilitis says:

    Consider me impressed with Lander. 4 pts in his last 8 games. 2 pts in the previous 40.

    Just watching Gordon on SNW Classics defend a 2 goal lead where he belongs, in a playoff game against Pittsburgh circa 2009. Poor bastard. Also, watching Crosby and Ovechkin trade hat tricks in this game is making me angry at Todd Nelson (although not really if he can get Yak going more consistently).

  95. Numenius says:

    So I turn the TV off at 2-4, and they come back and win the game.

    Who (or what) IS this Todd Nelson?

  96. VOR says:

    I think if Oilers fans really want the team to get better there is a way we can all help.

    You need to know a bit about the latest research on drafting as presented at Sloan and in various academic journals in order to understand why we could actually have an impact.

    Keeping it simple, research has explored the subject of how well Central Scouting does at ranking players in terms of subsequent performance in the NHL. Central Scouting is better than the best teams in round 1, there is no difference in round 2, but in rounds 3,4,5, and 6 not only do some NHL teams do better than Central Scouting the average team appears to do better than Central Scouting in those rounds. Oddly, in round 7 Central Scouting is better. NHL teams should be putting their resources into accurately sorting these lower ranked players and trusting their scouts to ignore CS rankings. They aren’t. and that is where fans can make a difference.

    Where we the fans can help is by viewing and ranking players that Central Scouting has ranked lower than 60th Overall. I’ll bet you are thinking, “it doesn’t matter, the chance of any of them being NHL players is tiny”. In 2003, a rich deep draft as we are being told is also true of 2015, Dustin Byfuglien and Joe Pavelski went in the two hundreds as did Jaroslav Halak, and Brian Elliott. In fact a remarkable 19 players taken after #60 Overall in 2003 have played more than 400 games in the NHL. David Backes, Lee Stempniak, Brian Elliott, Jaroslav Halak, Dustin Byfuglien, Joe Pavelski, Kyle Brodziak, and Jan Hejda would all be in most people’s redraft of the top 30 players taken that year. The Oilers had enough draft picks outside of the first round to have taken them all. So go watch some kids play hockey and then share with others here what you have seen and learned. Lets show the Oilers we can do it better.

    Minimally, a few knowledgeable fans pumping the tires on a player an Oilers scout is high on may allow them to make an argument for that player that would otherwise go unheeded. It will also help inform your opinion on Oilers prospects and their development. It certainly did in my case.

    I stuck with Chris Vandevelde long after others gave up because I had actually seen him play pre-draft and immediately post. He has never been quite as good as I hoped (in College he had a deadly first step that he has never shown in the pros) but he is finally having a real NHL career. He is close to covering his 97th OV pick. I also said that Jeff Petry’s problems in college (he had some – particularly his sophomore season – couldn’t reverse crossover step to one side – I think it was the left) would pass and he’d be a good NHL player. I wrote all of that here by the way. That was again based on having watched him develop in real time. It is personal viewing that has convinced me that the odds are good Tyler Vesel will have a pro career and probably make it all the way to the NHL. You have to see how badly he outplays in College to get a sense of what he might become. Yes, he is a year older than most University Freshmen but sweet jesus the kid is a demon at both ends of the ice. (Not to start a fight but my unwavering support for Mitch Moroz is also based on seeing him play, a lot.)

    Instead of bitching about how awful the Oilers scouting is go watch some hockey. Try to figure out which kid has the right stuff and which doesn’t. Keep notes. Think about it a lot. Watch other draft eligible players from the same team or league. Where does your guy rate?

    Want bonus points? Read the local press coverage. Check out all online references. Hell talk with the players and their coaches. Oh what the heck go all in, ask the kid’s sister what she thinks. One of the most famous quotes in the history of NHL scouting comes from a sister. “I think if more scouts had bothered to come and see my brother play he would have gone number #1 Overall.” His teammates, when the only scout who came to see that kid play more than once got on the team bus and asked whether his team should draft their teammate famously said, “yes, absolutely.” When asked how high the kid should go in the draft his teammates didn’t hesitate, “#1 Overall”. We are of course talking about Nick Lidstrom. The scout was from Detroit’s organization.

    So maybe you won’t spot the next Nick Lidstrom, but the next Lee Stempniak is a distinct possibility and that would be something you could brag about for the rest if your life.

    The best leagues for finding hidden gems are BCHL, AJHL, SJHL. MJHL, USHL, and the lower tier junior leagues in Sweden, Finland, and Russia and major junior hockey in other European countries, and last but not least College Hockey in the US, and heaven forbid, Canada. Also, don’t ignore the overagers. They are the next great resource that some team will figure out how to exploit. I don’t think that will be done with a computer sitting at a desk, though math may well come into to play, but it needs to be informed by viewing real players.

    I’ll bet at most half a dozen of you will even see a junior game live, never mind bother to go to some college game. Yet, you will all maintain you know better than the scouts. Because Oilers fans. Please, prove me wrong. I truly believe collectively we can do it better.

  97. Numenius says:

    Oilers have a better goal differential than Arizona now, who lost 6-1 to Chicago. Huh.

    Oilers -49
    Arizona -51
    Buffalo -78

    Since Nelson, the differential is exactly 0 (33 for, 33 against). That means everything below 0 belongs to Eakins.

  98. VOR says:

    And while I am annoying people, and I am sure my last post may have had that effect, let me add:

    “Don’t trade Nail Yakupov!”

    History says he is probably Joe Murphy or Alexi Kovalev, destined to always somehow underwhelm but still manage, when motivated, to be an amazing player. In other words he is going to need to be coddled and stroked and treated like a ticking time bomb for the rest of his career. But both Murphy and Kovalev had moments that made all that work worth it and so in all likelihood will Yakupov.

    Worse you might be the Vancouver Canucks. Once upon a time the Canucks had a kid a lot like Yakupov in that they drafted him high up in the first round and expected great things from him. Like Yakupov after three years the kid made up less than 5% of the Canucks goal scoring. He was also, like Yakupov, horrible in his own end. The Canucks traded him as one of the assets to the Boston Bruins in a 3 for 1. The player was Cam Neely. He made up a bit more than 5% of Boston’s offence for the next decade as you may recall.

    Similarly Murphy was traded by Detroit as one of the pieces in what amounted to a 3 for 1 (the other pieces were Adam Graves and Petr Klima – the return was Jimmy Carson). He had some awfully good seasons for the Oilers and was a key part of the Oilers last Stanley Cup win. What I am saying is you don’t trade away underperforming high draft picks because a frightening amount of the time it comes back to bite you in the ass and the reward for patient teams is often spectacular or at least well worth it.

    The smart money bet on Nail Yakupov is to give him time.

  99. Hammers says:

    I guess this tells me how often a lot of the people really followed Nelson & Okl . Nelson has been dealing with 2 teams as well as Okl over the last few years . Sending and receiving players from both above and below and making decisions that got him into the playoffs and close to the finals twice . He is the reason I felt we would be out of the McEichel sweepstakes unless we get that Lucky pick . I will continue to support a coach that both pushes the right buttons and accepts his inner gut feeling on his players .As for next years coach only the Oilers know for sure .

  100. Younger Oil says:

    Should be mentioned that Dubnyk gave up 4 goals on 10 shots against Detroit tonight, I know some people have been lamenting over him lately, so that might help a bit!

    A couple of them were real stinkers too, but they could have been weird bounces, not sure.

    http://www.nhl.com/gamecenter/en/icetracker?id=2014020687

  101. Zelepukin says:

    My favorite moment in the game was when someone realized (maybe after watching Ovie do it twice) that oh ya, it’s actually easier to get shots to the net on the PP when you have guys on their off wing.

  102. Zack says:

    Only caught a few glimpses of the game but one thing I saw and really liked was when Lander drove right to the net from the wing. I was focusing on the battle of Pennsylvania, wow, what a game!

    I’m loyal to the Oil, 100% but man, Nelson is sure driving this team away from any chances at McEichel. Unfortunately Petry may be gone soon so that will definitely help, but I have a feeling that the Yotes will counter with dealing Vermette.

    As each day passes McDavid’s stock rises, I have a feeling come playoffs it will only increase exponentially, no one will trade that pick.

  103. Pouzar says:

    So over the last 11 games with Nelson as Head Coach the Oilers are EVEN in goals for/against.
    I dunno how that is possible with this D corps, Nelson is a witch!

  104. PhrankLee says:

    VOR: I’ll bet at most half a dozen of you will even see a junior game live, never mind bother to go to some college game.

    You would so lose that bet, VOR.

    If you were venting, that’s well and good. But do you seriously think the people here don’t get out and watch games?

    BTW, if you are looking for “gems” in BCHL and it’s on the top of your list of places to find said “gems” I already am looking at you a little incredulously. Like maybe it’s a prank that someone more sophisticated than me is pulling. I experience that here regularly.

  105. russ99 says:

    VOR,

    Totally agree.

    Plus his (low) trade value is based on draft pedigree and potential.

    It would be awful to sell low on Yak just before he breaks out, Neely-style.

    Plus he’s still young and hasn’t filled out yet.

    if we’re moving a cluster piece, Eberle makes the most sense. He’s scored at a high level in the NHL so his trade value is pretty high. Also, moving him for an equally or more expensive player (like a #1 D) won’t wipe us out cap-wise.

  106. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    Schultz defended that one-on-one not at all.

    I disagree with the analytics on this player.

    When I see Justin on the ice defending I’m very comfortable.

  107. frjohnk says:

    Here is what is interesting.

    Eakins was better at in all situations, 5 on 5, score adjusted
    CF%,
    Fenwick,
    shots for%
    scoring chances for %,
    shots for/60,
    shots for from the “box” per game
    faceoff wins for %

    basically everything but

    shooting %
    save %

    Nelson has had 8 games out of 11 with a PDO of 99 or more.
    Eakins had 9 games out of 33 with a PDO of 99 or more.

    which is translating in to a better goals for and against and also a better record.

    If shooting % and save% were stripped out and someone told me which set of numbers would give us a better chance at winning. Its Eakins numbers hands down.

    But with Nelson, we are kinda like Calgary, and I say that in a good way.

  108. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy: I disagree with the analytics on this player.

    When I see Justin on the ice defending I’m very comfortable.

    Hitting the bottle early?

  109. Hughes16 says:

    Rest in peace officer Wynn. Everybody is praying for you and your family.

  110. PhrankLee says:

    Woodguy,

    He slips from one side of an attacker to the other without even disrupting the attacker’s stride.

    Strategy is to hold the blade of his stick near the stick of the attacker but never touch it.

    From what I see this is 19 defending.

  111. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk: Hitting the bottle early?

    That’s a quote from MacT at the Schultz re-signing presser

  112. Pouzar says:

    russ99:
    VOR,

    Totally agree.

    Plus his (low) trade value is based on draft pedigree and potential.

    It would be awful to sell low on Yak just before he breaks out, Neely-style.

    Plus he’s still young and hasn’t filled out yet.

    if we’re moving a cluster piece, Eberle makes the most sense. He’s scored at a high level in the NHL so his trade value is pretty high. Also, moving him for an equally or more expensive player (like a #1 D) won’t wipe us out cap-wise.

    Eberle is our only scoring RWer.
    Eberle is not bringing back a #1 D
    Eberle as the centerpiece of a package is not bringing back a #1D imo

  113. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy: I disagree with the analytics on this player.

    When I see Justin on the ice defending I’m very comfortable.

    Yer Dead to me. 🙂

  114. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy: That’s a quote from MacT at the Schultz re-signing presser

    We’re f^cked then.

  115. PhrankLee says:

    Pouzar: Woodguy: That’s a quote from MacT at the Schultz re-signing presser
    We’re f^cked then.

    He also strenuously defended Nikitin at another presser.

    Took up the argument that NN is an NHL defender. An Olympian, no less..

  116. Pouzar says:

    PhrankLee: He also strenuously defended Nikitin at another presser.

    Took up the argument that NN is an NHL defender. An Olympian, no less..

    FSN lives.

  117. Ca$h-Money! says:

    PhrankLee,

    That’s my favorite one.

    An Olympian… just like Belov and Marincin.

    I would trade Nikitin straight up for Belov, even if there was no difference in salary.

  118. Woodguy says:

    PhrankLee: He also strenuously defended Nikitin at another presser.

    Took up the argument that NN is an NHL defender. An Olympian, no less..

    I thought NN would be much better as well.

  119. rickithebear says:

    frjohnk: basically everything but
    shooting %
    save %

    Corsi = Blocks + misses + hit Goalie + open shot saved + goals

    the only thing any properly trained goslie can affect is saves on shots that can go in.

    Open shot saved/ (opens shot saved + goals) = Open shot save%.

    The open hole total faced and shot distance (reaction time) is about the players in front of the goalie.

    I sure would like to know how many of the 19.6 Shots per gamebrodeur faced in 98-99 playoffs were open hole.
    Cause he gave up 2.82 GAA
    Stevens-Neidermeyer; Daneyko-Odelien; Bombardir-Dean/Souray

  120. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy: I thought NN would be much better as well.

    Guilty as charged here as well.

  121. PhrankLee says:

    Woodguy: I thought NN would be much better as well.

    I was in that boat too. I was really excited to see Fayne Nikitin as a top pairing.

    Then Jeff and Oscar and MM could round out the 3-4-5 slots, develop and mature with #21 as floater. Aulie was another bet MacT made that did not pan out.

    I am arguing today the Fayne is not covering the bet either. So all vet d brought in have been mediocre to terrible.

  122. rickithebear says:

    Pouzar: Eberle is our only scoring RWer.
    Eberle is not bringing back a #1 D
    Eberle as the centerpiece of a package is not bringing back a #1D imo

    #1 D is a lazy term.

    does anyone really think that there is a collection of D that
    have a combination of top 30
    1. EVGA against 1st comp
    2. top 30 PKGA (reduce below 6.13 PKGa)
    3. Boost a PP past the 6.13 PPGF/60

    At this point there is 1 Dman.
    Edler #9 EV; #29 PK; #13 PP

    then there are d men top 30 in 2:
    Markov #11 EV; #21 PP
    Seabrook #19 PK; #25 PP
    Fowler #30 PP; #12 PK
    Ehrhoff #12 EV; #3 PK
    Boyle #1 EV; #16 PP
    Deykeyser #29 EV; #27 PK
    Oduya# #26 EV; #16 PK
    Zidlicky #19 EV; #27 PP
    Ekholm #7 EV; #6 PK
    Hjarlmasson #3 EV; #30 PK
    Kronwall #25 EV; #7 PP
    Chara #30 EV; #24 PP

    I just HATE that #1 D term.

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