TODD NELSON CAN LEAP BUILDINGS IN A SINGLE BOUND

Well ladies and men, he appears to be unstoppable. 5-4-2 on his own and he hasn’t solved the power play yet. When the special teams rhyme and the rhythm section tightens, we may be looking at something very good. Todd Nelson has this bunch believing in themselves mere weeks after they appeared unable to talk and chew gum at the same time. Whatever else he may be, and whatever else he may become, last night showed absolutely Todd Nelson is at least one thing: Coach.

nuge

NUUUGGEE!!

Wonderful season, he’s really kicking out the jams now. On his way to another 50-point season despite an addled power play, he’s basically a taller Dave Keon and hasn’t turned 22. The Oilers will have better days during the length of his deal and when they do all those crazy wonderful turnovers and plum passes are going to cash and count for something grand. Of all the players on the roster, it’s pretty clear whatever the future brings baby Nuge is going to be a part of it. Funny how things work out, isn’t it? I’d still like to see this level of play for awhile before we crown him King but there’s simply zero doubt he’s splendid. His 23 EV points are inside the league’s Top 25 and if Nelson can unlock the power play it’ll be music. For now, he’s a most deserving All-Star.

lander11

 ANTON LANDER, SIX PACES

Remember when we talked about waiting five years for a prospect? Well, maybe there needs to be a line that says “and take away one for every season the Oilers ruin with short sightedness” because it sure bloody looks like our Doug Jarvis is making himself useful. He has now passed 100 NHL games (Scott Cullen’s numbers suggest a No. 40 overall selection has a 34% chance of playing 100 games) and he looks good right now, as though he belongs. I’m not smart enough or versed enough in the ways of turning prospects into NHL players but the relationship between coach and player has to be a key element. If there’s one thing this season taught me, it’s that lesson.

You know what’s funny? The relationship Doug Jarvis had with a coach was a key element in his success too. Quoting a December 2009 entry on this blog:

  • Roger Neilson coached Jarvis in Peterborough when the young center was in junior. When the Habs traded for Jarvis, Neilson got on the phone and called Scotty Bowman to tell him Montreal had just acquired the league’s best faceoff man. And he meant the NHL!

Lander has a strange skill set reputation for a young player, kind of all leather no bat. He SHOULD become more useful—improved defensively as he matures and improved offensively as he learns how to remain in the areas where goals are scored without getting hammered every five seconds—as time rolls on. A player can learn to score as he matures, an example being Habs winger Gilles Tremblay (Scotty Bowman: “He didn’t have a big scoring touch in junior because he was always interested in backchecking – and that’s how he made the Canadiens” Source). It starts with a coach who believes in you.

hartikainen14

DRAFT TARGETS

Craig MacTavish spoke at length about the draft (including a willingness to trade one of the first rounders) yesterday and there are several items of real interest to me. Over the next while I’ll be discussing them, but wanted to begin with this one:

  • MacT:  “We’ve realized that we have to do a better job evaluating and procuring talent into our organization. You should be able to get two core members out of every draft and we’re below that.  By core members I mean top-six forwards, top-four defencemen, maybe a third-line centre and a goaltender. You have to draft with that philosophy in mind.” Source

The last time Edmonton exited a draft with two players who fit MacT’s description? 2002, Stoll & Greene. The Oilers are likely to come away with two players who fit the template from 2011 (Nuge & Klefbom)  and possibly 2010 (Hall & Marincin). They are unlikely to get that from the 2012 and 2014 draft but 2013 may provide them with two (Nurse and Yakimov, Slepyshev, Platzer or Chase).

One way Edmonton can absolutely improve today is by using MacT’s words to draft ALL of their players. By that I mean “ top-six forwards, top-four defencemen, maybe a third-line centre and a goaltender.” If we use that as a template, much of what has been drafted during the Stu MacGregor era would not have been selected. Examples would include Troy Hesketh, Cameron Abney, Kyle Bigos, David Musil, Travis Ewanyk and Mitchell Moroz—some of those names are high second-round picks.

The blame fell to the scouts and MacGregor but the reality is this: As MacTavish says in the article, the final say is with the GM. There’s no way to know if David Musil was chosen by the scouts and they can’t fire Steve Tambellini again, so we have a new world order in which the scouts scout and Bob Green takes the stone tablets to MacTavish, where he makes the final say. If the ONLY thing this exercise does is keep the Oilers from drafting fourth lines and third pairings, then it’s worth it.

If they end up drafting No. 3 and decide Hanifin and Strome have less value than a (say) trade that brings Couturier here? I’m fine with that but they better be right. I think the Oilers take the pick and I bet the five guys they have on their radar are McDavid, Eichel, Hanifin, Strome and Zacha. Just a guess on my part but if you wrote down ‘big center with skill’ that’s absolutely the focus in my opinion. Hanifin is intriguing but doesn’t bring enough offense. If you look at the top 10:

LT 2015 TOP 10

      1. (1) C Connor McDavid, Erie Otters (OHL) 22gp, 19-38-57 (2.59)
      2. (2) C Jack Eichel, Boston U (NCAA) 19gp, 10-22-32 (1.68)
      3. (5) R Mitch Marner, London Knights (OHL) 41gp, 33-53-86 (2.10)
      4. (4) C Dylan Strome, Erie Otters (OHL) 42gp, 28-49-77 (1.83)
      5. (3) D Noah Hanifin, Boston College (NCAA) 21gp, 3-9-12 (0.57)
      6. (10) D Oliver Kylington, Farjestad (SHL) 13gp, 3-3-6 (0.46)
      7. (6) D Zach Werenski, Michigan (NCAA). 18gp, 3-12-15 (0.83)
      8. (9) R Mikko Rantanen, TPS Turku (SML). 35gp, 3-11-14 (0.40)
      9. (11) D Ivan Provorov, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL) 39gp, 11-40-51 (1.31)
      10. (17) Evgeni Svechnikov, Cape Breton Screaming Eagles (QMJHL). 32gp, 16-30-46 (1.44)

 I can’t see Edmonton taking Marner or Werenski. No sir. It’s McDavid, Eichel, Hanifin, Strome, Zacha, maybe Kylington. That’s my bet. And if they finish No. 28 overall and the No. 27 team wins the lottery? We may have to talk about Lawson Crouse.

OILERS LAST 10 GAMES

last 10 games oilFor all the talk of Taylor Hall’s slump he still has seven points in his last 10 games and the 4% shooting percentage will turn. Nuge isn’t scoring much either lately he’s at 4.5% along with Nail Yakupov. They’re all over 20 shots during the 10 games so that’s a good sign. If they keep doing that, we should see better results. Man it’s nice to see Jordan Eberle cash some and Benoit Pouliot is riding a 46% shooting percentage. Not bad, not bad. It’s an absolute delight to see Lander among the top 9 scorers and if Matt Fraser can score two every 10 he’ll have a career. The defensemen don’t have any -7’s over the last 10 and for me Niki Nikitin appears to be settling in a little. Lordy that would be a big damn deal if the Russian started helping.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

10 this morning, TSN 1260. Scheduled to appear:

      • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal. Is Todd Nelson a witch?
      • Nathan Dempsey, Campus Director Vimy Hockey. All-stars and moving up the depth chart.
      • Andrew Bucholtz, 55-Yard Line. Lots of CFL happenings, including coach of the year.
      • Rob Soria, The Hockey Writers. Can the rebuild be saved, and Australian Open.

              10-1260 text, @Lowetide_ on twitter.  

RIP Mr. Wynn. Thank you for your service and your sacrifice.

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180 Responses to "TODD NELSON CAN LEAP BUILDINGS IN A SINGLE BOUND"

  1. Rondo says:

    Brock Otten yesterday on Crouse

    “Lots of banter about Lawson Crouse being ranked so high. It’s not a surprise. As I’ve said, he’s one of those guys that scouts are going to rank higher than the general opinion (because of his size and how well rounded his game is). That said, I still take Mitchell Marner ahead of him (where as Strome is debatable). Marner’s ranking isn’t a huge surprise, as Central Scouting has long been the type to value size more than anything.”

    http://ohlprospects.blogspot.ca/2015/01/nhl-central-scouting-midterm-rankings.html

  2. thejonrmcleod says:

    Last night the Caps’ analyst said that Nikitin “is very good in his own end.” I am not making this up.

  3. judgedrude says:

    Nelson is a great mentoring AHL coach, and that is showing now that he has taken the reins (or reigns?) of the Oilers.

  4. book¡je says:

    thejonrmcleod:
    Last night the Caps’ analyst said that Nikitin “is very good in his own end.” I am not making this up.

    HE IS, and we should all speak loudly about how great he is. It will be a shame to lose him at the trade deadline for a draft pick.

  5. frjohnk says:

    LT, I took your top 30 list and used behind the nets calculation of what to expect when a player hits his peak. I even factored in early and late birthdates of the upcoming draft. There is a whole lot of variance with this.

    Some sample sizes are small. I know some people would have questions on
    teammates,
    TOI,
    type of system played ( more offensive or defensive)
    how much more will the player development
    what kind of situation will the team that picks player put them in,etc
    that will have an factor on how these guys turn out

    Very early but but this gives us a guideline on what these prospects could top out at.

    Postion, player, peak points.
    C Connor McDavid 125
    C Jack Eichel 104
    R Mitch Marner 114
    C Dylan Strome 93
    D Noah Hanifin 38
    D Oliver Kylington 61
    D Zach Werenski 65
    R Mikko Rantanen 50
    D Ivan Provorov 49
    W Evgeni Svechnikov 59
    C Nick Merkley 78
    C Jansen Harkins 64
    C Mathew Barzal 62
    C Pavel Zacha 46
    D Jeremy Roy 55
    C Filip Chlapik 66
    C Anthony Beauvillier 81
    R Nikita Korostelev 54
    R Daniel Sprong 57
    L Jake Debrusk 41
    D Mitchell Vande Sompel 56
    L Lawson Crouse 43
    R Jens Looke 28
    C Travis Konecny 52
    D Jakub Zboril 34
    C Jeremy Bracco 56
    L Dennis Yan 61
    C Kyle Connor 44
    L Ryan Gropp 36
    R Brock Boeser 39

    Also, You added an extra 10 assisits for Ivan Provorov. His stat line should be at 11 goals 30 assists.

  6. Unicorns says:

    SuperNelson is riding a bit of luck for sure, but I have noticed the team making more plays directed at the net. More willingness to battle as well and go to the net. It has to be helping with the goals, but the deeper issues will have to be improved to be a good team.

    I can’t settle with not drafting McEichel. The Yotes don’t deserve it, they haven’t suffered enough and the fans don’t care. They both should play somewhere that truly cares about hockey. Buffalo sort of qualifies. It’s a shame to see talent like that wasting away in a football city on a lousy team other than Edmonton’s.

  7. 36 percent body fat says:

    Dear God, No Crouse please. Maybe with the later pick.

  8. Jordan says:

    Question – with all of the weird goals going in now, could Nelson’s turn-around just be regression to the norm for our shooting % and whatnot?

  9. Rod from Viking says:

    36 percent body fat,

    Maybe it is because of his size but he sure looked slow to me at WJHC tournament. I have a lot of confidence in Bob Green and I think the drafting ship is going to be righted.

  10. Ca$h-Money! says:

    thejonrmcleod,

    Maybe they will take him in a trade. Even if we retain $1.5m/year that’s still way better than a buyout, plus we could get a draft pick.

    That’s the dream anyway. Crazier things have happened.

  11. Caramel Obvious says:

    Jordan:
    Question – with all of the weird goals going in now, could Nelson’s turn-around just be regression to the norm for our shooting % and whatnot?

    This is obviously what is happening.

    It is amazing how easily people see an effect and attribute a cause.

    Under Eakins this team did good things all the time (along with the bad things) but they only saw the bad because of shooting/save percentage. Now it is the reverse. You can’t trust your eyes.

    This team isn’t getting more shots (in fact I believe it is less) and they aren’t allowing fewer. So how are they better?

    There are only three things that matter.

    1) Shots for and against.
    2) Shot quality/scoring chances
    3) Shooting/save percentage.

    The first is pretty hard data. We know these numbers. The third is also hard data, but it is out of your control–a combination of luck and talent. The second is unknowable because what our brains interpret as shot quality is really #3.

    So when we talk about these things, really only the first matters.

    Until Nelson improves the shot differential, this team is not really better.

  12. smellyglove says:

    Bohologo,

    Thanks for the in-game scouting report! I love these. The stuff on the bench and between whistles is what you don’t get on the screen.

  13. smellyglove says:

    Caramel Obvious,

    Don’t systems have an impact on all three?

  14. Zjunior says:

    I didn’t get to know Constable Wynn as well as I would have liked, but I did get to spend some time with him, standing by the glass, his son between the pipes, my son trying to score at the other end. He was a kind, thoughtful person, a hockey dad, a good man.

  15. blainer says:

    Bohologo:
    Sat three rows behind the Oilers’ bench last night, and had the following non-spreadsheet observations, all of which should be steeply discounted for their infinitesimal sample size and disgraceful casual empiricism:
    -more Oilers sweaters than you’d think at the rink, including Omar from Edmonton, and Gary, who is following the Hip around on their latest tour-I’m sure I’ll see him at the show tonight.
    -Nuge looks about 12. In a few years he’s going to have the same entering the zone with the puck affect that Modano and Forsberg had on us, making us cringe and look away with constricted sphincters.
    -Hall came to the bench a few times in obvious frustration, kicking things and slamming the gate; call him petulant or passionate, but it doesn’t seem fair to say he doesn’t care
    -during TV time-outs Roy talked to Yak a fair bit, pointing to different parts of the ice and giving him atta-boy arse pats at the end. Seems like some good mentoring.
    -I saw Lander good.
    -I saw the Oilers PP bad.
    -Ovechkin in all his shaggy glory is a pleasure to watch and worth the price of admission. Skates like the wind, hits like a freight train (loved the From Russia With Love take out of Yak at center ice), shoots like a rail gun. If he were Canadian people would name their kids after him.
    -it was my eldest’s first live NHL game-let’s hope it is something she remembers for a long, long time. Remember the first game you saw live?

    Sounds like you had a great game to watch. Am curious what you have to say about Yak’s play last night as Nelson gave him lots of ice time. Yak has an Ovechkin type of shot.. If nelson can just figure out how to get him to use it more.. especially on the PP..

  16. Snowman says:

    Caramel Obvious,

    I don’t disagree with what you’ve said there. However, I would argue that, by eye, the Oilers shots for quality has improved with Nelson having more people crashing the net than Eakins seemed to and their shots against quality has decreased as they seem to give away fewer 5 bell chances against every game. This seems very clear to me and I would bet if you looked at the goals against and goals for under Eakins vs under Nelson there would be a difference in the locations of both (I would bet the Oilers are scoring more from closer and getting scored on less from the same areas).

    So while shot differential is a good indicator I would argue that shot quality/scoring chances are a big part of Nelsons success in small sample size and despite the fact that its somewhat subjective, it cannot be dismissed as part of the equation.

    As for the team not being better, I agree. They are not better. However, under Dallas I believe they were under performing and under Nelson they are probably performing close to par.

  17. HiddenDarts says:

    I get that Mitch Marner isn’t a massive oak partial to the open ice hit, but shouldn’t he be high on the Oilers’ draft list? Guy’s a center, is scoring like an insane man in a good league and is already giving off the “could fall to 5 or later” vibes thanks to the Coke Machine loving scouting services.

    If the Oilers continue their recent play, we’re really going to have to adjust down our draft expectations. McDavid seems like an impossible dream at this point, and considering how much more watchable the hockey is, I’m embracing it.

  18. Caramel Obvious says:

    smellyglove,

    They impact one and two, they only impact three via two. But it’s irrelevant, because the impact on shots for and against is easily measurable. It doesn’t matter why you are getting shots, it just matters that you are. As for shot quality, systems would also impact this, but again there is no way to know the impact of systems on shot quality if there is no way to know how quality your shots are.

    Now obviously this is somewhat of an exaggeration. However, I maintain that there is almost no such things as an NHL team that takes a lot of shots from the outside at the expense of the inside. There are teams that allow shots from the outside at the expense of the inside (the Tortorella plan). These teams lose in the long run.

    There are also teams that transition faster. I would think these teams will probably get better quality shots, a team like the Blackhawks for instance which really stretch the play. And yet their team shooting percentage is 24th in the league. They win by getting more shots (1st in the league).

    So systems matter behind the scenes. But unless it translates into more shots for and fewer against, it doesn’t matter.

    Note: Colorado was 2nd in the league in shooting percentage last year. This year they are 21st. Every thing else is the same. Shooting percentage contains no relevant information. The noise swamps the signal. And if shooting percentage contains no relevant information then goals also contain no relevant information.

    The simple fact of the matter is that who won the game doesn’t tell you very much about the teams involved.

  19. barry.moore23 says:

    thejonrmcleod,

    Ha that’s funny. Along those same lines I told my buddy (Red Wings fan) that Petry might be coming his way and that’s a damn god thing. He said ” We’d rather have Schultz”. I’m not making that up.

    🙂 Go you Oilers !!!!

  20. Hammers says:

    Nelson for me is a coach that has his fingers on the pulse of his players . He doesn’t seem to kick ass or give pats on the back either during or after games but he seems to know who to use and more important how to use and get the most out of them . In other words he is a coach continually analyzing what he has . Hopefully McT lets him ask and get players from Oklahoma he thinks will meld with His group .

  21. Ben says:

    Woke up in a cold sweat last night, thinking of all the “Coach Craig T. Nelson” jokes that could have been cracked back when MacT was still on the bench 🙁

  22. Caramel Obvious says:

    Snowman:
    Caramel Obvious,

    I don’t disagree with what you’ve said there. However, I would argue that, by eye, the Oilers shots for quality has improved with Nelson having more people crashing the net than Eakins seemed to and their shots against quality has decreased as they seem to give away fewer 5 bell chances against every game. This seems very clear to me and I would bet if you looked at the goals against and goals for under Eakins vs under Nelson there would be a difference in the locations of both (I would bet the Oilers are scoring more from closer and getting scored on less from the same areas).

    So while shot differential is a good indicator I would argue that shot quality/scoring chances are a big part of Nelsons success in small sample size and despite the fact that its somewhat subjective, it cannot be dismissed as part of the equation.

    As for the team not being better, I agree. They are not better. However, under Dallas I believe they were under performing and under Nelson they are probably performing close to par.

    What seems to be and what is are not the same. The shots seem to be better because they went in. If they hadn’t gone in they would have seemed to be worse. This is known.

  23. frjohnk says:

    Caramel Obvious: 1) Shots for and against.
    2) Shot quality/scoring chances
    3) Shooting/save percentage.
    The first is pretty hard data. We know these numbers. The third is also hard data, but it is out of your control–a combination of luck and talent. The second is unknowable because what our brains interpret as shot quality is really #3.

    1) Eakins had a better shot for and a comparable shot against number

    Eakins shots for 60 min 28.2, shots against for 60 min 29.1
    Nelson shots for 60 min 24.9, shots against for 60 min 28.8

    2) War on ice shows Eakins had a better scoring chance for %
    Eakins 50.7%
    Nelson 41.3%

    Cult of Hockey at Eakins at -33 in 33 games in scoring chances, Nelson -11 in 4 games, so that data set in incomplete

    I have a running tally of shots for from the box
    Eakins averaged 14.45 shots per game from the box
    Nelson is averaging about 10 per game ( I don’t have last 2 games)

    3) Shooting/save percentage
    Eakins PDO 96.1
    Nelson PDO 100.8

    Percentage of games with PDO of 99 or higher
    Eakins 27%
    Nelson 82%

    Percentage of games with CF% over 50%
    Eakins 61%
    Nelson 27%

    If Eakins had Nelson’s PDO, this team would be above Calgary in the standings.

  24. slopitch says:

    MacT appears to have got it right with Nelson. Seems to be well liked by the players who played for him and he knows them well.

    Oilers are still 20 PTs back of 8th place Calgary. Try to win every game, build some karma up and hope like hell you win the lottery boys. Worst case finish is about 5th overall. I’ve waited 2-3 years for this core to turn around. I’ll take it whenever it comes.

  25. Lowetide says:

    Bohologo:
    Sat three rows behind the Oilers’ bench last night, and had the following non-spreadsheet observations, all of which should be steeply discounted for their infinitesimal sample size and disgraceful casual empiricism:
    -more Oilers sweaters than you’d think at the rink, including Omar from Edmonton, and Gary, who is following the Hip around on their latest tour-I’m sure I’ll see him at the show tonight.
    -Nuge looks about 12. In a few years he’s going to have the same entering the zone with the puck affect that Modano and Forsberg had on us, making us cringe and look away with constricted sphincters.
    -Hall came to the bench a few times in obvious frustration, kicking things and slamming the gate; call him petulant or passionate, but it doesn’t seem fair to say he doesn’t care
    -during TV time-outs Roy talked to Yak a fair bit, pointing to different parts of the ice and giving him atta-boy arse pats at the end. Seems like some good mentoring.
    -I saw Lander good.
    -I saw the Oilers PP bad.
    -Ovechkin in all his shaggy glory is a pleasure to watch and worth the price of admission. Skates like the wind, hits like a freight train (loved the From Russia With Love take out of Yak at center ice), shoots like a rail gun. If he were Canadian people would name their kids after him.
    -it was my eldest’s first live NHL game-let’s hope it is something she remembers for a long, long time. Remember the first game you saw live?

    Excellent scouting report, thank you sir!

  26. Ca$h-Money! says:

    Caramel Obvious,

    That’s always the thing, isn’t it? I think the correct answer is that we simply won’t know. On the one hand Eakins was driving the underlying numbers in a positive way, on the other hand he had a brutal record over 1.5 seasons… how much time is enough to wait for results?

    It’s like when I would talk to flames fans 20 games into the season, they would rave about how well the team was playing, about how exciting the games were and how they loved the effort/try of this scrappy team. I wouldn’t take that away from them, I’ve been a misereable hockey fan long enough to not wish it on anyone else. At the same time, all I could think was “of course it’s fun to watch, they score every 5th time they shoot”.

  27. sliderule says:

    Caramel Obvious,

    It is a little to early to measure the effect Nelson is having on those very important statistics but they did outshoot the caps last night.
    Twenty games should give us a tell.

  28. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Must feel nice to go into the AS break with a win “streak.”

    Good for the guys. They need it.

    Nuge is sublime. His 2-way game has grown by leaps and bounds and he is easily my favourite Oiler since Hemsky in his prime. And there’s no doubt Nuge is the better defender.

    Here’s the best part. He is 22. When he is 25 everyone is going to be talking about him as that 25G-55A two-way beast that plays 20 mins a night and just kills you when he is out there.

    He has such a great shot, too. Would really like him to get that “between the blocker and pad” low, heavy release off more often. With time.

    Marner since game 9 is scoring at the same rate as McDavid. I don’t think people should dismiss him as a possibility so easily. If we draft around #5 and he is sitting there (and Strome and Hanifin are gone), I’d say the Oilers should walk right up and pick him without hesitation.

    Is it too soon to talk about what players may shake loose from cap-strapped teams this summer? Hint-hint, starting with Chicago, which I’ve been talking about as a cap dump target for 18 months now. Would you trade the Pittsburgh 1st for Patrick Sharp at the draft? Or is he too old to fit the mold here? Perron for Sharp would be an interesting swap? Sharp can play all three forward positions.

  29. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    MacT on drafting philosophy

    http://www.theoilersrig.com/2014/06/drafting-philosophy-impact-players/

    “For every player that we draft in those mid to later rounds, we want to be able to make a case of why this guy has the potential to be really a top 7 forward, anyone of the 3 top center positions and the four top wing positions, or a top 4 defenseman.

    If that player doesn’t look like he has the potential to develop into that, then we’re gonna pass and try to find somebody that fits that need.”

    That was prior to last year’s draft.

    That is… MacT had the drafting philosophy (find impact players: top 7 F; top 4 D; 1 G) in place prior to selecting Liam Coughlin, Keven Bouchard, etc.

    There’s no evidence this drafting philosophy will translate into whatever it is YOU AND I think it might mean.

    Last year, they thought “impact players” meant Liam Coughlin.

    We have to hope the audit has come to the conclusion the 2014 draft was deeply misguided. Otherwise, MacT’s words the other day are completely hollow.

  30. Hammers says:

    LT what your saying about Lander seems to be 100% accurate .Even when he had bad days with the Oilers many of us felt he had “something” but none of the previous coaches seemed to know how to get it . Shows what trust on both the players and coaches part brings to the table and I hope this continues . We need Nelson to somehow do the same for Yak & Schultz and I’m hoping that’s exactly what he will do . If we could get those 3 along with Hall , RNH , Ebs , Klefbom , Marincin & Nurse we would have a good young cluster added to the vets , Gordon , Hendricks Pouliot & Purcell .Now McT needs a goalie & A #1 “D”

  31. Caramel Obvious says:

    Ca$h-Money!,

    Well I kind of agree with the firing. The team was mentally exhausted by the results. That’s real and needed to be addressed.

    However, look at the numbers FrjohnK posted. Those are shocking and really, should give anyone pause.

    Eakins wasn’t the problem and hence Nelson can’t be the solution.

    The one provision I would add to that is that the powerplay under Eakins wasn’t good and he has no track record of having a good powerplay. Interestingly, though, the powerplay is not any better now.

    To improve this team needs to:

    1) Play like they did under Eakins
    2) Get better goaltending.
    3) Improve the powerplay

    That gets us part of the way there. The rest you get by getting rid of Schultz and Nikitin and adding a center.

    But really it is impossible to evaluate how far away a team is when their shooting and save percentage are so bad because it is impossible to know how much is luck and how much is systemic. If you assume it is all systemic you risk throwing out the baby with the bath water.

    Likewise, if you are riding the percentages it is very hard to evaluate what to do. If you hold course, you end up like Colorado. But what do you change when it seems like everything is working?

  32. rickithebear says:

    frjohnk: 1) Eakins had a better shot for and a comparable shot against number

    Eakins shots for 60 min 28.2, shots against for 60 min 29.1
    Nelson shots for 60 min 24.9, shots against for 60 min 28.8

    2) War on ice shows Eakins had a better scoring chance for %
    Eakins 50.7%
    Nelson41.3%

    Cult of Hockey at Eakins at -33 in 33 games in scoring chances, Nelson -11 in 4 games, so that data set in incomplete

    I have a running tally of shots for from the box
    Eakins averaged 14.45 shots per game from the box
    Nelson is averaging about 10 per game ( I don’t have last 2 games)

    3) Shooting/save percentage
    Eakins PDO 96.1
    Nelson PDO 100.8

    Percentage of games with PDO of 99 or higher
    Eakins 27%
    Nelson 82%

    Percentage of games with CF% over 50%
    Eakins 61%
    Nelson 27%

    If Eakins had Nelson’s PDO, this team would be above Calgary in the standings.

    If Eakins ran a system to Protect and Attack the box. He would have Nelson’s PDO

  33. Showerhead says:

    Bohologo:
    Sat three rows behind the Oilers’ bench last night, and had the following non-spreadsheet observations, all of which should be steeply discounted for their infinitesimal sample size and disgraceful casual empiricism:
    -more Oilers sweaters than you’d think at the rink, including Omar from Edmonton, and Gary, who is following the Hip around on their latest tour-I’m sure I’ll see him at the show tonight.
    -Nuge looks about 12. In a few years he’s going to have the same entering the zone with the puck affect that Modano and Forsberg had on us, making us cringe and look away with constricted sphincters.
    -Hall came to the bench a few times in obvious frustration, kicking things and slamming the gate; call him petulant or passionate, but it doesn’t seem fair to say he doesn’t care
    -during TV time-outs Roy talked to Yak a fair bit, pointing to different parts of the ice and giving him atta-boy arse pats at the end. Seems like some good mentoring.
    -I saw Lander good.
    -I saw the Oilers PP bad.
    -Ovechkin in all his shaggy glory is a pleasure to watch and worth the price of admission. Skates like the wind, hits like a freight train (loved the From Russia With Love take out of Yak at center ice), shoots like a rail gun. If he were Canadian people would name their kids after him.
    -it was my eldest’s first live NHL game-let’s hope it is something she remembers for a long, long time. Remember the first game you saw live?

    I love it, great report.

    I worry about Hall. I think, even though he is more resilient than a guy like Yakupov, he wears his heart on his sleeve almost as much. He has had the weight of this team on his shoulders for a long time now and I think he’d benefit from a long stretch of W’s more than anyone would.

    I love reading the Roy/Yak comments and if there’s something useful there I hope they sign him.

  34. RexLibris says:

    HiddenDarts:
    I get that Mitch Marner isn’t a massive oak partial to the open ice hit, but shouldn’t he be high on the Oilers’ draft list? Guy’s a center, is scoring like an insane man in a good league and is already giving off the “could fall to 5 or later” vibes thanks to the Coke Machine loving scouting services.

    If the Oilers continue their recent play, we’re really going to have to adjust down our draft expectations. McDavid seems like an impossible dream at this point, and considering how much more watchable the hockey is, I’m embracing it.

    For me, this draft is likely going to come down to (lottery notwithstanding) one or Marner or Strome.

    I like Strome, but as I’ve mentioned before, his scouting report reads a lot like Draisaitl.

    Marner plays C now, but I’d expect he’d probably shift to the wing once he hit the NHL.

    He is very slight at 163lbs (or thereabouts), and it has been mentioned that he’s had some growth spurts over the last two years in his height.

    The Oilers took size with skill over skill with size last year, maybe this year they reverse and take the slighter player.

    One thing I will do, though, is believe that, if they are offered a choice of Strome and Marner, whatever Bob Green suggests is fine by me. With luck MacTavish and company will heed his advice.

  35. Caramel Obvious says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    What you’ve pointed out there is evidence of a conflict within the room between varying ideas of what the draft is for. My reading of the tea leaves is that there is a conflict between the scouts and MacT on this point kind of like that scene from Moneyball. There are lots of quotes out there of Macgregor saying they need a particular kind of player out of the draft (i.e. drafting for need).

    By my read, the failure of the 2014 draft (and it was a huge failure) was MacT not willing to overrule his scouts.

  36. Snowman says:

    rickithebear: IfEakins ran a system to Protect and Attack the box. He would have Nelson’s PDO

    I think I fall somewhere between Carmel and RTB on this. I think Eakins systems were a problem. I think Nelson has gotten “luckier” than Eakins. However, I also believe Nelson’s system is a clear contributor to his luck (and subsequently the tiny sample size of PDO) and Eakins was an anchor against his PDO over a larger sample size.. I haven’t seen somebody alone in the slot with the puck with three or four Oilers in the corner in quite a while and I don’t believe that luck has anything to do with it.

    Systems contribute to PDO. I know there is data that argues over the long run PDO will regress to the mean over time regardless of systems. However, I also believe that a coach with a consistently terrible PDO will be fired and replaced before there is enough data to prove that his system was in fact the source of his teams terrible “luck”.

    I think Eakins had enough games and enough goalies go sideways on him. If the Oilers goalies continue to put up better number under Nelson I think this would be a confirmation that Eakins system was at least part of the problem.

  37. Caramel Obvious says:

    Mitch Marner’s numbers are unbelievable. By the numbers he would be #1 with a bullet in most years. The Oilers should have a guy at every one of the Knights games the rest of the year tracking ice time, competition, teammates, and shots for and against. If he’s playing 25 minutes a night that’s one thing but if the numbers aren’t inflated he has to be the #3 pick. Has to be.

    On another note, we’ve reached the stage where scouts are useless, at least in the CHL. There is no added value to having your own guy there. There is just no way that a guy can see more in five or ten games than the numbers can see in 80. And even if there were, that already shows up in the central services. So the question isn’t really how much does he see, but rather how much more does he see compared to the guy right next to him. I think the answer is nothing.

    The way to beat the draft is with the numbers in the CHL. Send your scouts to Europe.

  38. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Caramel Obvious:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    What you’ve pointed out there is evidence of a conflict within the room between varying ideas of what the draft is for.My reading of the tea leaves is that there is a conflict between the scouts and MacT on this point kind of like that scene from Moneyball.There are lots of quotes out there of Macgregor saying they need a particular kind of player out of the draft (i.e. drafting for need).

    By my read, the failure of the 2014 draft (and it was a huge failure) was MacT not willing to overrule his scouts.

    That still redounds to MacT. It’s his problem.

    You set a mandate as manager.
    You hire people you trust to execute the mandate and bring their expertise to the process.
    You fire people that you either can’t trust and/or won’t follow your mandate.
    You don’t let your employees talk you out of your mandate.

    You don’t let Stu win when he fights with you to take two goalies because he thinks the organization’s depth chart at G is weak. It’s not his job to worry about depth charts. It’s not his job to set a mandate of drafting for need. It’s his job to use his expertise to execute the mandate.

    If the mandate’s not followed, it’s MacT’s dud.

  39. Caramel Obvious says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I totally agree it’s his problem. The difference is that this problem is fixable and, it seems to me, is being fixed.

  40. Caramel Obvious says:

    By the way, love the use of “redounds.”

  41. John Chambers says:

    Caramel Obvious:
    Mitch Marner’s numbers are unbelievable.By the numbers he would be #1 with a bullet in most years.The Oilers should have a guy at every one of the Knights games the rest of the year tracking ice time, competition, teammates, and shots for and against.If he’s playing 25 minutes a night that’s one thing but if the numbers aren’t inflated he has to be the #3 pick.Has to be.

    On another note, we’ve reached the stage where scouts are useless, at least in the CHL.There is no added value to having your own guy there.There is just no way that a guy can see more in five or ten games than the numbers can see in 80.And even if there were, that already shows up in the central services.So the question isn’t really how much does he see, but rather how much more does he see compared to the guy right next to him.I think the answer is nothing.

    The way to beat the draft is with the numbers in the CHL.Send your scouts to Europe.

    Someone’s going to want him bad. This is Zach Parise with more finish.

    It’s unfortunate because that’s the guy we want Yak to be, but we’re learning that it takes these guys 4-6 years to become real impact players.

    That’s why the best thing to do is leverage Marner’s cache, and cash him for Centre or Defenseman from a team looking to re-build. If that pick returns you Martin Hanzal and Brandon Gormley, or Zemgus Girgensons and Tyler Myers, you go into next season with most of your “core” 22-26 years old.

  42. oilspillcali says:

    Hey LT
    Do you think its possible for some of the russains to fall in the draft because of the anti-russian bias, something similar to what happened to nichushkin?

  43. johnnyshaka says:

    Bohologo: Remember the first game you saw live?

    I certainly do…my 10th birthday…my dad took my little brother and I on one of those bus packages where you get a ride to the game, tickets, and some concession money (aka, beer for dad). So we left from Ottawa and headed to the Forum in Montreal to see the Oilers beat the home team quite handily, 5-2. We were in the 2nd last row of the nosebleeds but I didn’t care one bit because I was at an Oilers’ game on my damn birthday…best birthday EVER!

    That was just over 30 years ago! Good times.

  44. LMHF#1 says:

    John Chambers: Someone’s going to want him bad. This is Zach Parise with more finish.

    It’s unfortunate because that’s the guy we want Yak to be, but we’re learning that it takes these guys 4-6 years to become real impact players.

    That’s why the best thing to do is leverage Marner’s cache, and cash him for Centre or Defenseman from a team looking to re-build. If that pick returns you Martin Hanzal and Brandon Gormley, or Zemgus Girgensons and Tyler Myers, you go into next season with most of your “core” 22-26 years old.

    I’m not sure if these are the exact players, but your head is in the right place.

    I hope whoever is making the decisions at draft time is able to think in this manner rather than simply run up to the podium and pick the next shiny thing.

    Even if you had #1, the move in the Oilers’ spot is to Lindros that thing.

  45. Showerhead says:

    RexLibris: For me, this draft is likely going to come down to (lottery notwithstanding) one or Marner or Strome.

    I like Strome, but as I’ve mentioned before, his scouting report reads a lot like Draisaitl.

    Marner plays C now, but I’d expect he’d probably shift to the wing once he hit the NHL.

    He is very slight at 163lbs (or thereabouts), and it has been mentioned that he’s had some growth spurts over the last two years in his height.

    The Oilers took size with skill over skill with size last year, maybe this year they reverse and take the slighter player.

    One thing I will do, though, is believe that, if they are offered a choice of Strome and Marner, whatever Bob Green suggests is fine by me. With luck MacTavish and company will heed his advice.

    I agree with everything you’ve written but I’m confused: why is having a Draisaitl-esque scouting report a bad thing?

  46. season not played says:

    A wise man once told me that a winning team wouldn’t use Anton Lander with good wingers, increased ice time and some looks on the power play.

    Just heard a wise man on the radio agree that the opportunity being given Anton Lander by Todd Nelson may be saving Landers career as an Oiler.

    Ignore a lot of situations like this. Couldn’t resist on this one. Sorry.

  47. Bank Shot says:

    Lowetide- I don’t see why you think Hanifin is lacking offence.

    He is pacing or bettering the following US college D-men at his age.

    Ryan Whitney
    Ryan Suter
    Ryan McDongah
    Erik Johnson
    Jacob Trouba
    Seth Jones
    The indefatigable Justin Schultz

    The prospect of having a 30-40, SMART defender that can eat up to 30 minutes a game sounds amazing.

    I’m pretty lukewarm on Strome. Another flashy forward that doesn’t care a whole lot about the defensive end according to scouting reports isn’t what this team needs. I’d rather have Marner that supposedly competes a lot harder in all three zones.

  48. godot10 says:

    Eakins had 110 games and a goal differential of about approximately -110 or a -1 goal differential per game. That is NOT bad luck, or bad shooting percentage, or bad goaltending. That is just bad coaching. Historically bad coaching.

    Krueger before him -9 GD in 48 games against all Western Conference teams, and now Nelson, a 0 goal differential in 11 games.

    Mike Babcock says that he looks at goal differential.

  49. misfit says:

    “Nelson cannot be stopped” sounds oddly similar to Stu “Magnificent Bastard” MacGregor. I think both guys are good at what they do, but I’d be very wary in proclaiming them the answer to anything at this point. Take their measurements if you like, but maybe hold off on ordering the crown and scepter for a little while.

    So far I’m loving Nelson’s influence, but I don’t think it should come as any surprise that he hasn’t fixed the PP yet. Ever since he’s come in as HC, I’ve been shaking my head at the way the powerplay has been set up. Everyone on the wrong side, and I’ve lost count at how many times I’ve seen a shooting lane disappear because the player receiving a pass has to re-adjust to get a shot off.

    EDIT – Ha! I didn’t read past the first paragraph before typing out this post and just noticed LT made the same “crown him king” point about Nuge that I did with Nelson/MBS. Or maybe I AM Lowetide…nobody has ever seen us together in the same room afterall *eerie music*

  50. Factotum says:

    Just gutted about Const. Wynn. Thanks for posting his picture, LT. You are always a class act.

  51. godot10 says:

    HiddenDarts:
    I get that Mitch Marner isn’t a massive oak partial to the open ice hit, but shouldn’t he be high on the Oilers’ draft list? Guy’s a center, is scoring like an insane man in a good league and is already giving off the “could fall to 5 or later” vibes thanks to the Coke Machine loving scouting services.

    If the Oilers continue their recent play, we’re really going to have to adjust down our draft expectations. McDavid seems like an impossible dream at this point, and considering how much more watchable the hockey is, I’m embracing it.

    McDavid is a lottery. The odds are really not that much different from slots 1 through 5 for getting him. #1 only has a 20% chance. #5 is about a 10% chance.

    What you mean is that Eichel is an impossible dream. The odds for McDavid are relatively unaffected by where the OIlers finish.

  52. Магия 10 says:

    1 game under real .500 with 100.8 PDO tilting in his favor with those tenders. Not a playoff team teambut it’s still early going. At least the arrows are in the right direction. Up up and away.

  53. rickithebear says:

    Last night Petry looked like 12-13 Petry :
    A player worth 5.5M X 5.

    I would gladly take 12-13 Petry
    top 40 in
    EVGA/60 #25
    PKGA/60 #24
    Blocks/gm
    Hits/gm

    His 1 good/great year.

    but these last 2 years scare me.

    List of top 30 results of oilers D 12-13 to 14-15
    13-14 Fistric #1 PKGA
    12-13 Fayne #2 EVGA/60
    13-14 Larsen #6 PPGF
    14-15 Marincin #7 PKGA
    12-13 Fistric #16 PKGA
    13-14 Marincin #17 EVGA
    12-13 Whitney #20 PPGF
    12-13 Fayne #21 PKGA
    12-13 N. Schultz #22 PKGA
    12-13 Ference #23 PKGA
    12-13 Petry #24 PKGA
    12-13 Petry #25 EVGA
    12-13 Smid #27 EVGA

    Marincin; Petry; Fayne have all been top 30 in 1st comp EVGA amd PKGA 1 of the 3 years.

    1 target I continue to beat the drum on is B. bellimore CAR
    13-14 #2 1st Comp EVGA/60 1.54
    14-15 #2 1st comp EVGA/60 1.39

  54. blainer says:

    Bohologo,

    Ahhh. Thats how i feel .. They need Yak on the 1st PP.. Do it now.. I don’t care who they take off but give the man a chance to use that shot..

  55. Dicky94 says:

    thejonrmcleod,

    I heard it too! They have absolutely no clue about hockey those guys and it showed big time. It was dreadful to listen to them. Stupid black outs.

  56. rickithebear says:

    John Even points:

    I try to see wo they are playing with and what EVP projected would Be.

    Crouse is 43 P but he projects 26-27 EVG 11-13 EVA
    while playing with C-W pairs who score at
    .82 PPG 2/3 TOI 1st line
    .47 PPG 1/3 TOI 2nd/3rd line
    Most players are experiencing a 30-70% bump playing with him.
    Kid is not going to get Big numbers in Junior

  57. gagan54 says:

    Since when does Katz jr. sit behind the bench at the games?

  58. SudburyOil says:

    rickithebear,

    If Eakins had had Roy, Lander, Draisatl in the WHL, and Pouliot shooting 46.7%, he’d still be coach.

  59. John Chambers says:

    LMHF#1: I’m not sure if these are the exact players, but your head is in the right place.

    I hope whoever is making the decisions at draft time is able to think in this manner rather than simply run up to the podium and pick the next shiny thing.

    Even if you had #1, the move in the Oilers’ spot is to Lindros that thing.

    I think the best thing for this team right now is to finish the season strong and play the back 9 at a 40-45 point pace.

    If they end up with the 4th or 5th pick in the draft, there’ll be a good future NHL player waiting there, but this team IMO needs to tool up to ‘compete’, like really, in the 2015-16 season. There’s too much on the line with potentially losing Hall, that the addition of a legit 2nd line centre and a strong defenseman to replace Nikitin wouldn’t assuage immensely.

    And Dear Gord, if we can’t just overpay Petry on a 4-5 year contract to give us a legitimate NHL defense next year – that would be a Christmas Miracle, and yes Virginia MacT does get it and we should be trust him.

  60. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Marner went scoreless to start the season in 8 games.
    Since finding the range he has put up 2.65pts/game over 34 games.
    A nice comparable in terms of size and pts/game is Patrick Kane, who put up 2.5 pts/game.

    I know you can’t just “throw out” an 8 game sample size completely, but definitely worth mulling in this case because his 34 game sample size is not small, and is in a consecutive block of games.

    Would love a Patrick Kane type at #5.

  61. PhrankLee says:

    LT,

    What are your thoughts on Lagesson committing to UMass?

  62. John Chambers says:

    SudburyOil:
    rickithebear,

    If Eakins had had Roy, Lander, Draisatl in the WHL, and Pouliot shooting 46.7%, he’d still be coach.

    I’m going to come right out and say it: defending Eakins only with stats is tiresome and narrow-focused.

    The players weren’t responding to him. He made the game too complex, and not a lot of fun. It’s interesting to remark that there was some bad luck that is exemplified in the underlying numbers, but commenters are too far into the abyss on the stats if they feel that Nelson isn’t a substantial upgrade on a failed project.

    Eakins 100+ game sample size was a disaster, and a few lucky goals and timely saves wouldn’t have and shouldn’t have saved him from his fate.

  63. Магия 10 says:

    godot10: Mike Babcock says that he looks at goal differential.

    He’s on the right angle. But plug those goals for and against into the James Pythagorean thingee with the dial on the exponent set to a non-Cartesian 1.927 or whatever the pocket protector mosh pit uses these days and it’s even a better predictor. Here’s a paper saying that says it’s even immune to score effects:

    http://www.hockeyanalytics.com/Research_files/DayaratnaMiller_HockeyFinal.pdf

  64. Caramel Obvious says:

    godot10:
    Eakins had 110 games and a goal differential of about approximately -110 ora -1 goal differential per game.That is NOT bad luck, or bad shooting percentage, or bad goaltending.That is just bad coaching.Historically bad coaching.

    Krueger before him -9 GD in 48 games against all Western Conference teams, and now Nelson,a 0 goal differential in 11 games.

    Mike Babcock says that he looks at goal differential.

    You are such a sophist. Babcock says that goal differential is better than wins or losses. Which a) I agree with, b) is entirely irrelevant to the point, and c) to the extent that it is relevant, the underlying reasoning supports my view.

    BTW, a sophist is the worst insult I know.

  65. Магия 10 says:

    gagan54: Since when does Katz jr. sit behind the bench at the games?

    Since they put him In charge of pro scouting. Daryl still makes the final call on amateurs.

  66. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    John Chambers: The players weren’t responding to him.

    I think you have to flesh this out.

    The usage and shot metrics suggest the Oilers were doing what Eakins asked and it was working absent luck.

    I don’t see much evidence that there was a disconnect between Eakins and the team.

    I see a lot of evidence that losing made everyone (including fans) grumpy.

    But, that’s a different matter altogether.

  67. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    One thought experiment is the following.

    Last year JJ looked pretty good in TC. Had a back injury. Looked terrible. Got better over the summer. Looked good this year.

    NN hasn’t ever really looked good as an Oiler. But, he was injured before the back injury. So, who knows.

    As a fellow back-problem sufferer, I sympathize with these folks and have to wonder if NN simply isn’t fully recovered from that back injury.

  68. fifthcartel says:

    Bank Shot:
    Lowetide- I don’t see why you think Hanifin is lacking offence.

    He is pacing or bettering the following US college D-men at his age.

    Ryan Whitney
    Ryan Suter
    Ryan McDongah
    Erik Johnson
    Jacob Trouba
    Seth Jones
    The indefatigable Justin Schultz

    The prospect of having a 30-40, SMART defender that can eat up to 30 minutes a game sounds amazing.

    I’m pretty lukewarm on Strome. Another flashy forward that doesn’t care a whole lot about the defensive end according to scouting reports isn’t what this team needs. I’d rather have Marner that supposedly competes a lot harder in all three zones.

    This is pretty interesting. Hanifin’s skating is supposed to be unreal too.

  69. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Fistric clears.

    That’s interesting. I bet the Oilers debated it.

  70. russ99 says:

    Caramel Obvious: This is obviously what is happening.

    It is amazing how easily people see an effect and attribute a cause.

    Under Eakins this team did good things all the time (along with the bad things) but they only saw the bad because of shooting/save percentage.Now it is the reverse.You can’t trust your eyes.

    This team isn’t getting more shots (in fact I believe it is less) and they aren’t allowing fewer.So how are they better?

    There are only three things that matter.

    1) Shots for and against.
    2) Shot quality/scoring chances
    3) Shooting/save percentage.

    The first is pretty hard data.We know these numbers.The third is also hard data, but it is out of your control–a combination of luck and talent.The second is unknowable because what our brains interpret as shot quality is really #3.

    So when we talk about these things, really only the first matters.

    Until Nelson improves the shot differential, this team is not really better.

    Cause and effect, pretty simple.

    Nelson switched the offensive systems to one accentuating getting the puck to better areas and abandoned Eakin’s hard cycle that may have added shots to the totals but didn’t mean more goals.

    Getting less chances but more quality scoring chances and putting ourselves in positions to capitalize on rebounds is inflating the shot totals and shooting percentages, a direct result of Nelson’s changes.

    Increasing shot differential isn’t really viable at this point:

    Other than the Detroit and St. Louis games we’ve been shooting the puck in the low 30s during Nelson’s tenure without MacT. Not sure there’s much more you can realistically churn out, and going back to a hard cycle to create more ineffective shots would harm things rather than improve things.

    The defensive side is another story. IMO we don’t have the talent to affect shots against in a meaningful way at this point, and it could get worse if (when) we subtract Petry.

  71. dawgtoy says:

    Thanks for adding Cst. Wynn to the blog today. I hope to never know the despair that his family is feeling today.

  72. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    Follow

    Pierre LeBrunVerified account
    ‏@Real_ESPNLeBrun
    Placed on NHL waivers today: Jakub Culek (Ottawa) and Justin Falk (Minnesota). Mark Fistric (Anaheim) cleared waivers.

  73. godot10 says:

    SudburyOil:
    rickithebear,

    If Eakins had had Roy, Lander, Draisatl in the WHL, and Pouliot shooting 46.7%, he’d still be coach.

    Eakins had Lander. Played him with AHL’ers in both training camps. Neglected a 2.5 year sample size of superior play in the AHL. Chose Will Acton over him twice.

  74. frjohnk says:

    russ99: Cause and effect, pretty simple.

    Nelson switched the offensive systems to one accentuating getting the puck to better areas and abandoned Eakin’s hard cycle that may have added shots to the totals but didn’t mean more goals.

    Getting less chances but more quality scoring chances and putting ourselves in positions to capitalize on rebounds is inflating the shot totals and shooting percentages, a direct result of Nelson’s changes.

    Other than the Detroit and St. Louis games we’ve been shooting the puck in the low 30s during Nelson’s tenure without MacT. Not sure there’s much more you can churn out, and going back to a hard cycle would harm things rather than improve things.

    The defensive side is another story. We don’t have the talent to affect shot totals against in a meaningful way at this point.

    Nelson
    Shots for from the box 11.6 per game
    Shots against from the box 14.2 per game

    Shots for /60 min 24.9
    Shots against /60 min 28.8

    Scoring Chances For %
    41.3%

  75. Caramel Obvious says:

    russ99,

    You are smart enough to know that that is all storytelling. There is no evidence for any of it. Indeed, what evidence there is (see frjohnk’s post) is precisely the opposite. The Oilers are not getting more of the shots from in close.

    And the one documented change in systems I’ve seen is that the third forward is higher on the forecheck, which would not be the cause of the effect you are imagining here. Imagining, because there is no observation of the effect.

    Indeed, you were hammering the idea that Eakins was encouraging cycle for the sake of the cycle and more shots from outside when everything I’ve seen points in the exact opposite direction. The Oilers under Eakins passed up shot opportunities, especially from outside, more than other teams. It may be the case that Nelson is getting them to shoot more and cycle less but if so that isn’t resulting in more shots from closer.

    Finally, do we even know that the Oilers under Eakins had a defined system at all in the offensive zone. For most teams the system is limited to play without the puck (forecheck, transition, and defensive zone) and breakout and transition with the puck. Until demonstrated otherwise, the Oilers were similar in this regard. Which is to say that there can be no systemic effect if there is no system in place.

  76. leadfarmer says:

    fifthcartel,

    LT doesn’t believe in taking defensemen high, because of some old wives tale. There is no evidence to support that taking defensemen high is a bad choice, in fact its wingers you should stay away from. There are multiple sources that say that a lot of years he would be a number 1 pick and could finally be that top pairing defensemen that we’ve been lacking. But I guess who needs him when we can have a D-corps featuring Jultz and Nikitin. Then we can wonder why our skilled forwards have trouble scoring when no one is able to get them the puck with speed and why our pp stinks when our point shot is fairly non existent and the opposing team can disregard the point men

  77. leadfarmer says:

    godot10,

    He also had another top notch winger. You can’t blame the problems on Eakins but he was definitely not the solution.

  78. Heinz 57 says:

    Bohologo,

    Love that phrase “atta-boy arse pat”. Made me wonder whether the word “endorsement” stems from “dorsal”, which in truth it does.

    I guess there’s more than one way to stand behind and offer support.

    ———

    Here’s what San Jose needs to do this season before each playoff game: a collective full-shiver atta-boy fin bump.

    A group of sharks is called a gam, grind, school, herd, pod, collage, or shiver.

    Mainly, in recent years, they’ve exited the playoff grind in little packets of sawdust-coloured, wax-slicked freezer paper (as a grind of Shark).

    ———

    Interestingly, USGS lists “an obstinancy of buffalo”. The phoenix has no listing there.

    I propose an ignes fatui of phoenixes [ig-neez fach-oo-ahy; literally, foolish fires; illusory].

    ———

    What we desperately need to do PDQ is convince once of these other broody Phoenices to lay an egg, as there can only be one Phoenix egg at any given time.

    Phoenix, Illinois
    Phoenix, Louisiana
    Phoenix, Maryland
    Phoenix, Michigan
    Phoenix, New York
    Phoenix, Oregon

    (Not quite a Springfield of Phoenixes, but perhaps a half-litter.)

    ———

    Broodiness in the Phoenix is associated with plucking your abdomen bare of feathers and weaving them into a kindling crown.

    ———

    An “ignis fatuus” is also known as a friar’s lantern.

    One wonders how the fat friar lights his lantern without crazing his candlestick.

    ———

    Two genealogy sites offered to trace “Agnes Fetui” but both came up blank when I actually clicked on the name. Oh, intertubes, you fickle temptress.

  79. PhrankLee says:

    leadfarmer,

    Oh boy. You don’t know what you’ve just done.

  80. leadfarmer says:

    PhrankLee,

    This is a stats heavy blog. Show me the Stats.

  81. godot10 says:

    A single indicator unconfirmed by other indicators is likely a false positive.

    Eakins had a small uptick in shot metrics that was totally and completely unconfirmed by every other indicator.

    Goal Differential: worse
    Power play: worse
    Practices: clueless sermons by the coach
    Player development: none. prospects went backwards
    Every single goaltender underperformed
    Won-loss record: worse
    Training camps: both wasted, focused on making decisions on role players based on small sample sizes
    Off-ice training: wrongly emphasized endurance over explosive power.
    Player utilization: Benched his best defenseman twice.

    Any indicator of improvement should be able to be seen in other indicators.

    An isolated small uptick in Corsi with every other indicator negative, suggests a coach who is cheating to get that small uptick. Teaching to the test.

  82. rickithebear says:

    PDO has a whole collection of Noise to its Data.
    on the Save% side.
    looking at 13-14 Save5 leaders the top is .933 and bottom is .891 from 52 goalies.
    themedian being .915
    so the nreal range is .933 -.891 = .042
    around the median is +.018 to -.024
    the .891 is noise

    when looking at Shooting %
    shot leaders are

    285 forwards
    .180 to .045 range with 10.4 as median
    range is +.076 to -.045

    104 D .128 to .019 is range with Median at .062
    Dman Working range is .101 – .019 = ..082
    +.039 to -.043

    You have to do PDO bya team by team basis.

  83. leadfarmer says:

    RNH has the most time on ice per game out of any forward in the NHL. He is 74th in the league. The nice thing about defensemen especially top pairing ones is you can play them 25% more or higher than you forwards. You want your best players on the ice as much as possible. Look at the teams with good forwards but crap D. They are all struggling. Dallas, Edmonton, Philadelphia. No defense no playoffs.

  84. ChiliChunk says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”: Marner went scoreless to start the season in 8 games.
    Since finding the range he has put up 2.65pts/game over 34 games.

    He didn’t start with 8 scoreless games. He had 5 pts in first 10 (2 Sept games, 8 Oct games) followed by 85pts in 32 (2.66). Amazing either way though.

    http://www.ontariohockeyleague.com/roster/gameByGame/id/14721

  85. rickithebear says:

    frjohnk: Nelson
    Shots for from the box 11.6 per game
    Shots against from the box 14.2 per game

    Shots for /60 min 24.9
    Shots against /60 min 28.8

    Scoring Chances For %
    41.3%

    Shots:
    Hit Goalie with avg ditance?
    Open hole saved with avg distanc?
    Goals with avg Distance?

  86. Jordan says:

    Thanks for all your thoughts about the afftect luck may be having on Nelson’s early success as Head Coach.

    Another question:
    What if the plan for this year was always to tank?

    1 year deal for Schultz & Petry so they can be traded at the deadline for picks and help the tank, and potentially re-signed at market rates in the summer
    Going with unproven goalies with hype
    2 NHL centres on a roster that need 4+
    Nikita Nikitin

    I mean, there’s a lot of pieces that should be sold at the deadline here, right? Viktor Fasth, Justin Schultz, Jeff Petry, Nail Yakupov, Robert Klinkhammer, Derek Roy, Keith Aulie, Tyler Pitlick, Matt Fraser & Anton Lander all have expiring contracts… so the tank could definitely get more deliberate, no?

  87. stush18 says:

    I i like how nelsons powerplay is set up. I think we just have the wrong type of players on this team for it to be effective. Our guys would rather float around the edges and tick tack toe into the back of the net. How often do we all yell shoot at the tv?

    I would love to see yak and iro on this powerplay. Think they would look nice.

    Edit. I meant yak2. Which obviously shouldnt happen

  88. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    LT: Tell your sidekick (Eric?) to try running the washer without clothes in it, and put vinegar in the soap dispenser.

  89. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Jordan,

    MacT, is that you?

    The plan for this year was always to tank? Really? You can do better than that!

  90. leadfarmer says:

    Jordan,

    I think trying to sign Roy for next year should be on the list of things to do. Even if he doesn’t want to stay here him working with Yakupov for the rest of the year would be of more benefit than the 5th round pick you might get for him.

    At least with Eakins gone we dont have to worry about signing Marlie players which have all but universally failed here. More Barons, less Marlies

  91. frjohnk says:

    rickithebear: Shots:
    Hit Goalie with avg ditance?
    Open hole savedwith avg distanc?
    Goals with avg Distance?

    I could gather them but too time consuming

  92. leadfarmer says:

    Also, I haven’t followed Fistric’s work this year but with Petry likely gone and Gadzooks eating popcorn in the PB I think it might be time to waive Gadzooks and claim a guy like Fistric to maybe stablilize the D.

  93. frjohnk says:

    godot10:
    A single indicator unconfirmed by other indicators is likely a false positive.

    Eakins had a small uptick in shot metrics that was totally and completely unconfirmed by every other indicator.

    Goal Differential: worse
    Power play: worse
    Practices: clueless sermons by the coach
    Player development: none.prospects went backwards
    Every single goaltender underperformed
    Won-loss record: worse
    Training camps: both wasted, focused on making decisions on role players based on small sample sizes
    Off-ice training: wrongly emphasized endurance over explosive power.
    Player utilization:Benched his best defenseman twice.

    Any indicator of improvement should be able to be seen in other indicators.

    An isolated small uptick in Corsi with every other indicator negative, suggests a coach who is cheating to get that small uptick.Teaching to the test.

    You forgot The Swarm TM

    Eakins was totally the wrong coach for many of the reasons you listed.

    The oiler team of last year had the 5th worst score adjusted fenwick data set in the league since 2007.

    I do think Eakins learned a lot from his hiring to his firing.

    But this team could not afford to have a coach who was going to learn what worked and what does not work.

    Should have been an experienced coach in 13-14

    and should be an experienced coach in 15-16.

  94. PhrankLee says:

    leadfarmer: This is a stats heavy blog. Show me the Stats.

    Percent of the time Godot takes the Eakins bait: 100%

    There’s a blog stat.

  95. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    http://www.tsn.ca/radio/edmonton-1260/dave-jamieson-show-jan-20-hour-2-1.187588

    At the 23 minute mark, Jamieson interviews Bob Green.

  96. PunjabiOil says:

    I think you have to take Marner or Strome if you have the chance.

    Marner’s numbers make him pretty tough to pass, despite his size issues.

  97. fifthcartel says:

    leadfarmer,

    I think I share some of the worry that defensemen taking high may not provide enough offence, or won’t project as well, but if Hanifin does + has a good shot to use on the power-play then I would think hard about taking him if they end up at the #3 spot.

    Only thing that is a minus with Hanifin is he’s a left-handed shot, which would add another LH prospect to Nurse, Klefbom, and Marincin. Although Hanifin might be better than them all.

    I wish they had TOI for college defensemen, I tried looking for some stats on Hanifin and found only 1 of his goals came on the power-play, but I wonder how many of his assists are even-strength. If he’s producing the bulk of his points at even-strength, that’s got to warrant consideration for picking him, right?

    His skating is not a worry, neither is his size, so really offence is the main concern here.

  98. frjohnk says:

    Going back to the draft list
    If oilers pick
    1st, its McDavid
    2nd, its Eichel

    for 3rd, a case could be made for Hanifan
    This is D man who is big 6 foot 2, 205 pounds who is a great skater. His offense and skating are comparable to Bowmeester.

    Marner
    might be the most skilled in the draft other than McDavid. Putting up similar numbers to Kane even though Marner is just over a half a year younger than when Kane put up his crazy numbers in the O.

    Strome
    Can never have too many big skilled centers, can we?

    The late first, I think we trade.

    As for the 2nd round pick

    ALEXANDER DERGACHYOV who is a center
    http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=231966

    His peak numbers suggest a player who would put up around 40 points.
    Around the same as this guy

    LAWSON CROUSE who is a winger
    http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=205155

    ALEXANDER DERGACHYOV is the guy who had that battle with Nurse in the WJC
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9alhlHRwRKs

  99. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    frjohnk,

    Agreed on all these points. And someone alluded to having too many LHD. If Hanifin is projected to be better than them all, you take him anyway and trade from your strength to address an area of weakness. I compared Marner’s production to Kane above as well.

    The only quibble is there is almost zero chance Crouse lasts until round 2. I mean, Central Scouting has him in their top 5 now. I think that’s too high. But he’ll be in the 10~20 range at the very worst.

    Edit- My mistake. I see that you were comparing the Russian to Crouse and making a case for him in round 2. My apologies.

  100. ohhell says:

    Bohologo: Remember the first game you saw live?

    Yup. Winnipeg Arena in the early 80’s. Jets vs. Rangers. My uncle played for the Rangers at the time so we made the trip from Regina. We got to have dinner with the team; I had Phil Esposito on my left and John Davidson on my right. Pretty sure I sat closer to John, since Phil was a bit of an intimidating guy. John was simply an outstanding individual and extremely kind to me.

    My mother brought a girlfriend on the trip and she practically fainted during an elevator ride with Phil, complete with his fur coat and charm. Fun times.

  101. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Re: The salary cap, and this is important.

    1/3 of the league’s revenue (at least at the box office) was coming from Canadian teams in 2012 : (Source: http://www.thestar.com/sports/hockey/2012/01/01/for_nhl_the_cash_is_in_canada.html)

    If we assume that ratio remains the same, since the NHL draft last year, the Canadian dollar has declined vs. the US dollar by 16%. This is going to get worse with the US preparing to hike interest rates just as Canada surprised by cutting rates today to stem a looming recession caused by the filter down effect of the energy sell-off and the very bloated looking Canadian housing market that is about to suffer a correction.

    At current levels, (1.235), the NHL’s revenue projections (at 33% ratio of revenues) will miss by 5.3%. If the Canadian dollar weakens to 1.3 the hit to revenues will be 8.7%. These figures are based on foreign exchange rates alone and would not factor any potential slow down to the economy.

    There is significant reason to believe that the NHL’s current cap of $69M may not rise nearly as much as projected, or more will be put in escrow for a rainy day scenario. 5.3% of $69MM is $3.64M. 8.7% is $5.97MM.

    I hope that the Oilers are anticipating this and considering ways to clear the books of Nikitin, Purcell, and any other large contracts for players earning more than their production warrants. Purcell is okay as a player, and Nikitin may get a bit better when healthy, but neither player is currently earning his keep nor is irreplaceable at a lower cost.

    Teams like Chicago, Philadelphia, and Boston are quite likely to be in for a very cold reality. Even LA has to re-sign Kopitar. Chicago’s Kane and Toews contracts are absolute killers. The Rangers’ contracts to Staal and Girardi are killers.

    A well-positioned, savvy team will absolutely be able to capitalize on this situation if it came down to it. The Oilers should be clearing cap space this year in order to take advantage of these teams next year.

  102. dannyboy says:

    Eichels numbers dont seem generational…what am i missing?

    Also, its doubtful we get mcdavid now. Sorta a shame. A little more losing and we would have the absolute best of all our top picks. Making us a threat for well over a decade.
    I believe we need to move a core piece to bring enough talent back in 2 or 3 pieces to plug the holes on our faulted roster.

    Mcdavid makes that easier. Not so sure about jack

  103. supernova says:

    frjohnk: 1) Eakins had a better shot for and a comparable shot against number

    Eakins shots for 60 min 28.2, shots against for 60 min 29.1
    Nelson shots for 60 min 24.9, shots against for 60 min 28.8

    2) War on ice shows Eakins had a better scoring chance for %
    Eakins 50.7%
    Nelson41.3%

    Cult of Hockey at Eakins at -33 in 33 games in scoring chances, Nelson -11 in 4 games, so that data set in incomplete

    I have a running tally of shots for from the box
    Eakins averaged 14.45 shots per game from the box
    Nelson is averaging about 10 per game ( I don’t have last 2 games)

    3) Shooting/save percentage
    Eakins PDO 96.1
    Nelson PDO 100.8

    Percentage of games with PDO of 99 or higher
    Eakins 27%
    Nelson 82%

    Percentage of games with CF% over 50%
    Eakins 61%
    Nelson 27%

    If Eakins had Nelson’s PDO, this team would be above Calgary in the standings.

    frjohnk,

    What is Eakins Corsi when trailing comparative to Nelson’s ?

    Same with PDO?

    Do these numbers include the MacT / Nelson combo or just the Nelson ones?

  104. Unicorns says:

    Caramel Obvious,

    “What seems to be and what is are not the same. The shots seem to be better because they went in. If they hadn’t gone in they would have seemed to be worse. This is known.”

    I haven’t read anything about shot quality to suggest it doesn’t exist. That randomness, confirmation bias, streaks etc affect things doesn’t mean that everything is completely driven by them. It’s not been shown to be sustainable is the thing, so not really meaningful for analysis and that was the end of it (except for David Johnson) until more data becomes available.

    The Oilers may be doing things that increase the chances of scoring on top of PDO regressing and despite less than stellar Corsi. I would guess that given the talent level that if team play improves the team SH% and Corsi will go up some as a new norm. The biggest change in Corsi will come via MacT improving the roster. He will, right?

  105. supernova says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”:
    Re: The salary cap, and this is important.

    1/3 of the league’s revenue (at least at the box office) was coming from Canadian teams in 2012 : (Source: http://www.thestar.com/sports/hockey/2012/01/01/for_nhl_the_cash_is_in_canada.html)

    If we assume that ratio remains the same, since the NHL draft last year, the Canadian dollar has declined vs. the US dollar by 16%. This is going to get worse with the US preparing to hike interest rates just as Canada surprised by cutting rates today to stem a looming recession caused by the filter down effect of the energy sell-off and the very bloated looking Canadian housing market that is about to suffer a correction.

    At current levels, (1.235), the NHL’s revenue projections (at 33% ratio of revenues) will miss by 5.3%. If the Canadian dollar weakens to 1.3 the hit to revenues will be 8.7%. These figures are based on foreign exchange rates alone and would not factor any potential slow down to the economy.

    There is significant reason to believe that the NHL’s current cap of $69M may not rise nearly as much as projected, or more will be put in escrow for a rainy day scenario. 5.3% of $69MM is $3.64M. 8.7% is $5.97MM.

    I hope that the Oilers are anticipating this and considering ways to clear the books of Nikitin, Purcell, and any other large contracts for players earning more than their production warrants. Purcell is okay as a player, and Nikitin may get a bit better when healthy, but neither player is currently earning his keep nor is irreplaceable at a lower cost.

    Teams like Chicago, Philadelphia, and Bostonare quite likely to be in for a very cold reality. Even LA has to re-sign Kopitar.Chicago’s Kane and Toews contracts are absolute killers. The Rangers’ contracts to Staal and Girardi are killers.

    A well-positioned, savvy team will absolutely be able to capitalize on this situation if it came down to it. The Oilers should be clearing cap space this year in order to take advantage of these teams next year.

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”,

    Agree completely.

    Retaining money on Nikitin, and Fasth just to move them along for picks is a good strategy.

    Same should be said for Teddy Purcell as well. Would be a nice fit on many teams at approximately $3 million.

    If you could part ways with all or part of the salaries on these players it would be great for bargaining in the summer and also having the Picks for more assets would help.

  106. Unicorns says:

    leadfarmer:
    Also, I haven’t followed Fistric’s work this year but with Petry likely gone and Gadzooks eating popcorn in the PB I think it might be time to waive Gadzooks and claim a guy like Fistric to maybe stablilize the D.

    I think a name change might be in order – the Edmonton Waivers.

  107. Adam Wu says:

    Can anyone with access to the raw shot data calculate a standard deviation, 95% confidence interval and p-value for comparing Eakins and Nelson’s shot metrics (or any other metric)?

    Only with that can we see just how much real difference there has been in those measurements between the two of them. For all we know right now there may not actually be a statistically significant difference between the two numbers.

    If someone can direct me to a source for the raw data, I can do the calculations myself.

  108. PhrankLee says:

    Unicorns,

    He cleared. It would be a step in the wrong direction.

    Egg enough on the faces of management without scooping a guy you couldn’t come to terms with.

  109. russ99 says:

    Caramel Obvious:
    russ99,

    You are smart enough to know that that is all storytelling.There is no evidence for any of it.Indeed, what evidence there is (see frjohnk’s post) is precisely the opposite.The Oilers are not getting more of the shots from in close.

    And the one documented change in systems I’ve seen is that the third forward is higher on the forecheck, which would not be the cause of the effect you are imagining here.Imagining, because there is no observation of the effect.

    Indeed, you were hammering the idea that Eakins was encouraging cycle for the sake of the cycle and more shots from outside when everything I’ve seen points in the exact opposite direction.The Oilers under Eakins passed up shot opportunities, especially from outside, more than other teams.It may be the case that Nelson is getting them to shoot more and cycle less but if so that isn’t resulting in more shots from closer.

    Finally, do we even know that the Oilers under Eakins had a defined system at all in the offensive zone.For most teams the system is limited to play without the puck (forecheck, transition, and defensive zone) and breakout and transition with the puck. Until demonstrated otherwise, the Oilers were similar in this regard.Which is to say that there can be no systemic effect if there is no system in place.

    First off, are those numbers with MacT or without? Because when MacT was “helping” Nelson, we we’re still running Eakins’ cycle. The change didn’t happen until MacT went upstairs.

    The changes I’m seeing are from the Islanders game until now.

    And even if the shot data doesn’t exactly jive, we’re getting in scoring areas via puck movement rather than than cycling along the wall, and we’re getting second shots in the crease much more than we did under Eakins.

    The point of all this, is Nelson is succeeding by moving away from Eakins’ possession-first mentality that either doesn’t work as expected or doesn’t work with this player group.

    Could it be possible the Corsi-Fenwick theorums where possession equates to winning and the ideal that PDO (10%) roughly equating to shooting percentage is based in luck aren’t telling the whole story here?

    I know this is a stat-heavy blog, and many of the things stats tell us are valid, but speaking for myself, after two years of Eakins pushing the possession approach down the players’ throats with a year and a half of putrid hockey to show for it, it’s going to take some real compelling evidence to get me to trust it again fully.

  110. frjohnk says:

    supernova: frjohnk,

    What is Eakins Corsi when trailing comparative to Nelson’s ?

    Same with PDO?

    Do these numbers include the MacT / Nelson combo or just the Nelson ones?

    Trailing
    Eakins CF% 53.2% PDO 95.2
    Nelson CF% 55.5% PDO 98.0

    Tied
    Eakins CF% 52.2% PDO 97.2
    Nelson CF% 45.7% PDO 101.8

    Leading
    Eakins CF% 45.0% PDO 96.5
    Nelson CF% 42.% PDO 103.7

    Score Adjusted
    Eakins CF% 50.5% PDO 96.6
    Nelson CF% 47.7% PDO 101.2

    Does not include MacT

  111. Lowetide says:

    leadfarmer:
    fifthcartel,

    LT doesn’t believe in taking defensemen high, because of some old wives tale.

    Erik Johnson, Thomas Hickey, Karl Alzner, Luke Schenn, Jared Cowen, Erik Gudbranson say hello.

  112. supernova says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    MacT on drafting philosophy

    http://www.theoilersrig.com/2014/06/drafting-philosophy-impact-players/

    “For every player that we draft in those mid to later rounds, we want to be able to make a case of why this guy has the potential to be really a top 7 forward, anyone of the 3 top center positions and the four top wing positions, or a top 4 defenseman.

    If that player doesn’t look like he has the potential to develop into that, then we’re gonna pass and try to find somebody that fits that need.”

    That was prior to last year’s draft.

    That is… MacT had the drafting philosophy (find impact players: top 7 F; top 4 D; 1 G) in place prior to selecting Liam Coughlin, Keven Bouchard, etc.

    There’s no evidence this drafting philosophy will translate into whatever it is YOU AND I think it might mean.

    Last year, they thought “impact players” meant Liam Coughlin.

    We have to hope the audit has come to the conclusion the 2014 draft was deeply misguided. Otherwise, MacT’s words the other day are completely hollow.

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I am in agreement with a lot of what you wrote.

    I think MacT would agree as well.

    What happened in 2014 draft is a complete mystery, hopefully the forensic audit reveals that a few scouts need to be turfed. We both know who one is for sure.

    Man does the Kevan Bouchard pick look bad, can we just send him back to the draft already instead of seeing him on our updates.

    The Goal MacT talked about is a great goal but 2 of those players in every draft is not reasonable.

    Even if you broke it to 10 FWD”s (4Centers, 6 wingers) 5 D (your top 5) and 1 G.

    You would be the absolute cream of the crop if you did that over 8 years (2 per year).

    2 players that reach a games played goal is achievable from every draft. Stretch that to 3 and you have a lot of depth.

    2 in MacT’s goals and you are looking at the depth of the 80’s Oilers.

  113. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: Erik Johnson, Thomas Hickey, Karl Alzner, Luke Schenn, Jared Cowen, Erik Gudbranson say hello.

    Why? Are they on tinder?

  114. supernova says:

    frjohnk: Trailing
    Eakins CF%53.2% PDO 95.2
    Nelson CF%55.5% PDO 98.0

    Tied
    Eakins CF% 52.2% PDO 97.2
    Nelson CF% 45.7% PDO 101.8

    Leading
    Eakins CF% 45.0% PDO 96.5
    Nelson CF% 42.% PDO 103.7

    Score Adjusted
    Eakins CF% 50.5%PDO 96.6
    Nelson CF% 47.7% PDO 101.2

    Does not include MacT

    frjohnk,

    How about PP and PK?

    Am I correct in saying Goalies are saving slightly more and shooters are scoring slighty more but the puck is tilted toward edmontons net in the short sample size of Nelson’s tenure?

  115. Unicorns says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”:
    Re: The salary cap, and this is important.

    1/3 of the league’s revenue (at least at the box office) was coming from Canadian teams in 2012 : (Source: http://www.thestar.com/sports/hockey/2012/01/01/for_nhl_the_cash_is_in_canada.html)

    If we assume that ratio remains the same, since the NHL draft last year, the Canadian dollar has declined vs. the US dollar by 16%. This is going to get worse with the US preparing to hike interest rates just as Canada surprised by cutting rates today to stem a looming recession caused by the filter down effect of the energy sell-off and the very bloated looking Canadian housing market that is about to suffer a correction.

    At current levels, (1.235), the NHL’s revenue projections (at 33% ratio of revenues) will miss by 5.3%. If the Canadian dollar weakens to 1.3 the hit to revenues will be 8.7%. These figures are based on foreign exchange rates alone and would not factor any potential slow down to the economy.

    There is significant reason to believe that the NHL’s current cap of $69M may not rise nearly as much as projected, or more will be put in escrow for a rainy day scenario. 5.3% of $69MM is $3.64M. 8.7% is $5.97MM.

    I hope that the Oilers are anticipating this and considering ways to clear the books of Nikitin, Purcell, and any other large contracts for players earning more than their production warrants. Purcell is okay as a player, and Nikitin may get a bit better when healthy, but neither player is currently earning his keep nor is irreplaceable at a lower cost.

    Teams like Chicago, Philadelphia, and Bostonare quite likely to be in for a very cold reality. Even LA has to re-sign Kopitar.Chicago’s Kane and Toews contracts are absolute killers. The Rangers’ contracts to Staal and Girardi are killers.

    A well-positioned, savvy team will absolutely be able to capitalize on this situation if it came down to it. The Oilers should be clearing cap space this year in order to take advantage of these teams next year.

    This is true. Purcell has some skills but I have been seeing him bad on positioning. No way you can pay him that for his contribution. Hendricks too on the PK. They have been slow getting into lanes, too many good shots getting through. I think younger faster guys would do a better job on PK, given some learning time.

    A lot of energy is needed to do it well. To be good the high men have to get into the point lanes and moving quickly enough to cut off the cross ice pass and support the high slot. They have to be energetic and quick. Hendricks has been playing pretty well, but I wonder if harsh zone starts leave him a bit tired at 34 YO for the PK minutes as well.

    So many Oilers mindlessly drift out of position, I feel sorry for Nelson, good luck changing them. I’m a Petry supporter, but a few games ago he was making a play at his own net, sent a pass off and continued to drift back until he bumped into the end boards. He took himself totally out of the play and the puck almost turned over, he was behind the net and would have been unable to do anything. Why?

  116. Lowetide says:

    RexLibris: Why? Are they on tinder?

    Haha!

  117. frjohnk says:

    dannyboy:
    Eichels numbers dont seem generational…what am i missing?

    Also, its doubtful we get mcdavid now.Sorta a shame. A little more losing and we would have the absolute best of all our top picks. Making us a threat for well over a decade.
    I believe we need to move a core piece to bring enough talent back in 2 or 3 pieces to plug the holes on our faulted roster.

    Mcdavid makes that easier. Not so sure about jack

    I ran his numbers from last year, very comparable to Stamkos in junior
    They suggest a player that peaks in the NHL at 98 points.

    This years numbers suggests a player that peaks in the NHL at 100 points.

    His numbers blow away Toews at the same age in the NCAA but Toews made tremendous leaps in development from age 18 to 22.

    Eichels numbers from last year in the USHL are comparable to Kane and Kessel as 17 yearolds.

    I calculated if he were to be playing junior this year, he would be averaging around 2.3 points a game.
    McDavid 2.6
    Marner 2.1

    This is a really good hockey player.

  118. frjohnk says:

    supernova: frjohnk,

    How about PP and PK?

    Am I correct in saying Goalies are saving slightly more and shooters are scoring slighty more but the puck is tilted toward edmontons net in the short sample size of Nelson’s tenure?

    yup

  119. Lowetide says:

    PhrankLee:
    LT,

    What are your thoughts on Lagesson committing to UMass?

    I understand it’s a really strong program. Beyond that, I don’t know enough to comment.

  120. supernova says:

    RexLibris: Why? Are they on tinder?

    RexLibris,

    Lowetide,

    Haha, tinder

    How Many #1 D man are there in the league?

    the real answer is 32 but I am not sure people would identify 32.

    It seems people think there are about 16 number 1’s

    32 number 2;
    and 48 number 3’s

    The next Question is how do you acquire these 1’s or even 2’s?

    For every Doughty, Petriangelo there are more Hickey’s ( trying to help the tinder reference)

  121. supernova says:

    frjohnk: yup

    frjohnk,

    So Can any analytics support the change causing players to feel better about going to the rink.

    about actually closing out and winning games when trailing?

    or should we think that is just a blip and things will return?

    We also know Eakins #fancystats were far better than his actual record, so is Nelson getting the results because of a different personality or style?

  122. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide,

    You mean the Erik Johnson who came back from back to back lost seasons due to injury, who is playing 25 min a night. The guy who would be tied for the goals for lead on this team. Thats right he has more goals than Taylor Hall. He has a + plus/minus on the worst net negative team in his division. I would hardly call him a failed pick. Imagine where he would be if he got those 2 years that he lost back.

    Gilbert Brule, Jack Skille, Sam Gagner, Nikita Filatov, Nail Yakupov waive back

    Pouliot took until last year to have a pulse. Brassard finally started hitting his stride last year, so Gundbrandson is a little early to tell.

    Jared Cowen was taken 9th. After Scott Glennie and before MPS. I could soundly say that he is the better pick

    Alzner seems like he is doing ok. Well they could have passed on him and picked gems like Gagner or Zach Hamill.

    The Schenn pick looked bad from day 1.

  123. leadfarmer says:

    Lets start in 2001
    Mike Komisarek first D taken at #7. Outside of lottery. (3-10 are) Svitov, Weiss, Chistov, Koivu, Leclaire, Ruutu, Blackburn. Surround him. Big misses at 3 and 5 with Svitov and Chistov. Dan Hamhuis was second D take at 12

    2002 Jay Bouwmeester and Pitkanen taken 3-4 and our Ryan Whitney at 5. Nash (1) Lehtonen (2). Upshall, Lupul, Pierre Marc Bouchard, Petr Takicek afterwards. D other than some bad injuries still looks pretty good here

    2003 Ryan Sutter, Coburn, Phaneuf taken 7-9. Things would have gone a lot better for Columbus if they passed on Zherdev at #4. Vanek and M Michalek at #5-6 are good pieces but the D especially suter are tops.

    I know I did the next 7 years in the past threads and don’t feel like repeating them. The thought that Dpicks fail bad but forward picks don’t is just not supported.

  124. Lowetide says:

    leadfarmer:

    I know I did the next 7 years in the past threads and don’t feel like repeating them.The thought that Dpicks fail bad but forward picks don’t is just not supported.

    I think the problem is that you’re using Mike Komisarek as a win.

  125. frjohnk says:

    Lowetide: Erik Johnson, Thomas Hickey, Karl Alzner, Luke Schenn, Jared Cowen, Erik Gudbranson say hello.

    6 out of 19 D picked in the top 10 since 2005 to 2011 have covered the bet of their draft pick.
    23 out of 40 F picked in the top 10 since 2005 to 2011 have covered the bet of their draft pick.

    And some of the forwards that have not covered the bet are close, few D men are, maybe Bogosian stops being injred and Larsson pans out but D men in the top10 are more voodoo than forwards.

    All of D men that have not panned out except Hicky are really big guys. I wonder if their dominance in junior was because of size moreso than skill ( especially Cowan, Ellerby, Schenn,McIirath,) and their games have not been able to translate well to the NHL because their size advantage can not make up for the lack of skill like it did in junior.

    It might be more of a problem with scouting that can not properly identify how a player will eventually turn out.

    Don’t pick best player available at the moment
    Pick the player that is the best in the future.

    Good scouts can identify this.
    The other scouts work for the oilers

  126. Unicorns says:

    PhrankLee: Unico

    I was joking – I don’t think waiver players are the answer. If they are we’re asking the wrong question. I’d rather sit N2 and give Marincin some at bats. A wasted season needs to be used to asses talent in the system. They better not be in the position to be able to do it next year with no consequence.

  127. Numenius says:

    RexLibris: For me, this draft is likely going to come down to (lottery notwithstanding) one or Marner or Strome.

    I like Strome, but as I’ve mentioned before, his scouting report reads a lot like Draisaitl.

    I just watched this video of Marner and am now in love.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCS53q1eGZ4

    His skating, in terms of speed, agility, smoothness, and strength of stance, seems out of this world. His hockey sense also appears incredible. The moves, vision, shot, defensive play, and positioning all seem elite to me. They remind me of Kane, and I can see why they’re often compared.

    Interesting that Kane was exactly the same height and weight at the draft as Marner is now.
    Kane at draft: 5’10” 162 lbs
    Marner now: 5’10” 164 lbs

    And Marner will be 6 months younger than Kane at the draft, so there’s a chance he could grow more than Kane did.

    I like Strome too, but unless things change, I think you have to take Marner every time, regardless of need. The polish and upside just seem that much higher. And in any case, you always need an 80 point scorer more than a 50-60 point scorer.

  128. B S says:

    *The Oilers’ PDO over the last season and a half is over two standard deviations* from the mean. intro stats courses will tell you that is outside the realm of “chance” or “luck”, in other words there is no reason to assume that this team was going to regress (progress?) under Eakins without other major changes. Nelson’s PDO isn’t exceptionally high (less than one SD above mean compared to the last 1.5 seasons in the NHL) so I would suggest he isn’t doing anything special in terms of shooting percentage or save percentage, but might be getting a little lucky. Eakins was getting good possession metrics, but there is no way every goalie and every player accidentally gets worse under him for an entire 100 games due to “bad luck”. Extreme values are representative of exceptions to what is expected. If Eakins had a PDO of 98% it would be a matter of luck, 97.2 this season was not luck related.

    Something worth considering with PDO. If it is system related (as an example): a team with an exceptionally good system will have a high PDO, but other teams will eventually learn to counter that system, causing a regression to the mean. Teams with a bad system must change their system to improve, if the new system is no more effective than the old one then PDO will remain low.

    In other words good teams can have high PDO but it will always decrease if they stay the same, it doesn’t even have to be a systems advantage either, it could be player motivation or confidence or player deployment (coaching tactics), regardless other teams will work to counter it. Teams with a low PDO will not improve it unless there is a significant change (could be system related, or it could be player skill level or motivation/confidence, but if it stays the same PDO will remain low.

    *sorry, I had this wrong, the low PDO only applies to this half season.

  129. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    Hunt and Lander named to the AHL all star team, and I believe Miller has been nominated to take Lander’s spot.

    http://theahl.com/all-star-roster-changes-starters-named-p195898

  130. RexLibris says:

    Numenius: I just watched this video of Marner and am now in love.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCS53q1eGZ4

    His skating, in terms of speed, agility, smoothness, and strength of stance, seems out of this world. His hockey sense also appears incredible. The moves, vision, shot, defensive play, and positioning all seem elite to me. They remind me of Kane, and I can see why they’re often compared.

    Interesting that Kane was exactly the same height and weight at the draft as Marner is now.
    Kane at draft: 5’10” 162 lbs
    Marner now: 5’10” 164 lbs

    And Marner will be 6 months younger than Kane at the draft, so there’s a chance he could grow more than Kane did.

    I like Strome too, but unless things change, I think you have to take Marner every time, regardless of need. The polish and upside just seem that much higher. And in any case, you always need an 80 point scorer more than a 50-60 point scorer.

    For me it comes down to whether Marner is a true center or a Curtis Lazar center.

    Lazar played C for the Oil Kings, but everyone know by watching his game and positioning that W was going to be his ticket. Same went for Henrik Samuelsson.

    If Marner is a C posting those numbers, I take him without hesitation. If he is a RW, then I think you have the debate about whose ceiling is higher: Strome or Marner.

    There is also the aspect of Marner playing wing alongside your pass-happy big center Draisaitl in a few years’ time, so there are several factors to consider here.

    Put it this way, whichever of the two they select, provided Eichel and McDavid are unavailable, it is unlikely either one will be our next Jason Bonsignore.

  131. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    Numenius: I just watched this video of Marner and am now in love.

    He’s been a Marner for a heart of gold…

  132. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    This is a strong draft class.

    Most scouts have said Hanifin is considered in the same class as Ekblad and Jones. Agreed that the box cars look a tad shy, but this is no Ryan Murray.

    I’m not expressing an opinion here on the discourse on taking D-men Top 10 or not, but if Hanifin is as good as the scouts say, he should be a very strong prospect.

  133. RexLibris says:

    Auston Matthews ’16: He’s been a Marner for a heart of gold…

    I had that same song going through my mind this morning, that and “After the Gold Rush”. Something about the January blues must have put me in the mood for “Birds” and “Only Love Can Break Your Heart”.

  134. Panda says:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OY-C2-uatyE

    This may have been posted earlier.

    A CBC piece on hockey parents showing a 12 year old Marner and his father.

  135. Adam Wu says:

    B S:
    *The Oilers’ PDO over the last season and a half is over two standard deviations* from the mean. intro stats courses will tell you that is outside the realm of “chance” or “luck”, in other words there is no reason to assume that this team was going to regress (progress?) under Eakins without other major changes.

    If you are one SD above the mean, it means that there is about a 65% chance that your number is truly higher than the mean, and a 35% chance that it actually is the same as the mean, but appears higher due to the luck of variance, assuming that you are sampling from a normal distribution.

    If you are two SD above the mean, then that means it is a 96% chance that your number is truly above the mean and a 4% that it isn’t and just appears to be from luck.

    What standard constitutes “outside of chance or luck” is an arbitrary convention based in part on practical considerations with respect to how often you are willing to risk being wrong when making decisions based on the numbers. So if you are willing to be wrong 1 time out of every 20, then 2 SD is a reasonable “threshold of significance”. If not, then you set a more stringent cut-off.

    In a lot of physics experiments, for example, you don’t accept a result as real unless it is 6 SD different from your null hypothesis. In medicine and biology it is usually 2.

    How would this apply to hockey teams and their PDO? Well, there are more than 20 teams in the league, and that means that it is in fact very likely that in any given season there is at least one team in the league with a PDO greater than 2 SD off from the league average as a result of luck alone.

  136. AZOIL says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”:
    Re: The salary cap, and this is important.

    1/3 of the league’s revenue (at least at the box office) was coming from Canadian teams in 2012 : (Source: http://www.thestar.com/sports/hockey/2012/01/01/for_nhl_the_cash_is_in_canada.html)

    If we assume that ratio remains the same, since the NHL draft last year, the Canadian dollar has declined vs. the US dollar by 16%. This is going to get worse with the US preparing to hike interest rates just as Canada surprised by cutting rates today to stem a looming recession caused by the filter down effect of the energy sell-off and the very bloated looking Canadian housing market that is about to suffer a correction.

    At current levels, (1.235), the NHL’s revenue projections (at 33% ratio of revenues) will miss by 5.3%. If the Canadian dollar weakens to 1.3 the hit to revenues will be 8.7%. These figures are based on foreign exchange rates alone and would not factor any potential slow down to the economy.

    There is significant reason to believe that the NHL’s current cap of $69M may not rise nearly as much as projected, or more will be put in escrow for a rainy day scenario. 5.3% of $69MM is $3.64M. 8.7% is $5.97MM.

    I hope that the Oilers are anticipating this and considering ways to clear the books of Nikitin, Purcell, and any other large contracts for players earning more than their production warrants. Purcell is okay as a player, and Nikitin may get a bit better when healthy, but neither player is currently earning his keep nor is irreplaceable at a lower cost.

    Teams like Chicago, Philadelphia, and Bostonare quite likely to be in for a very cold reality. Even LA has to re-sign Kopitar.Chicago’s Kane and Toews contracts are absolute killers. The Rangers’ contracts to Staal and Girardi are killers.

    A well-positioned, savvy team will absolutely be able to capitalize on this situation if it came down to it. The Oilers should be clearing cap space this year in order to take advantage of these teams next year.

    Lets hope they know this. What is going to happen in Canada will for sure affect the cap one would think and they should pounce on this. I still can’t believe the contracts the Chicago gave to those two players? Crazy high if you want a team around them to be anything good.

  137. Adam Wu says:

    supernova: frjohnk,

    So Can any analytics support the change causing players to feel better about going to the rink?

    “players feeling better about going to the rink” can be measured by a simple survey of the players, for anyone willing to try. (best to use visual analog scales rather than simple yes-no questions, though).

    Analytics will then tell you if “feeling better about going to the rink” is actually a real and reliable factor for predicted whether or not the players Willa tally perform better to a degree that is large enough to have a significant impact on actual on-ice results.

  138. Pouzar says:

    leadfarmer:
    RNH has the most time on ice per game out of any forward in the NHL.He is 74th in the league.The nice thing about defensemen especially top pairing ones is you can play them 25% more or higher than you forwards.You want your best players on the ice as much as possible.Look at the teams with good forwards but crap D.They are all struggling.Dallas, Edmonton, Philadelphia.No defense no playoffs.

    This. Along with not being able to defend we get jack shite in offensive production form our D. Anyone know off hand where we rank?

  139. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide,

    No I think that you disregarding two guys that absolutely bombed in actual lottery positions because they fit the idea that forwards are good, I used komisarek because he was first d taken although outside of the established lottery position.

    frjohnk,

    So to cover their position the D have to be near Hall of Fame caliber while the forwards just have to be top 6 or there about. I take it you are one of those people whO think there are only 5 top pairing defenseman in the NHL

  140. leadfarmer says:

    Pouzar,

    No but the busted Erik Johnson has two less goals then every defenseman that has suited for the oilers this year.

  141. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Adam Wu,

    I’m no physicist, but I love this stuff nonetheless. Here’s my fun history contribution for the day.

    The amazing story of LTCM in 1998 and how a bunch of Nobel laureates suffered some of the biggest financial losses in history.

    Excerpt from a college paper on this:

    Then came August 1998, when the market moves were sharper than anything the firm had
    expected. On August 17, Russia announced it was restructuring its bond payments—a de facto
    default. The losses forced many investment banks, hedge funds and other institutional investors to
    reduce their positions en masse. The flight to quality boosted prices for Treasury bonds and sunk
    prices for lower quality bonds in an unprecedented fashion.
    Credit spreads had never moved so far so fast. The most dramatic manifestation of the
    phenomenon was in swap spreads, which represent the differential in interest rates paid by highgrade
    banks and Treasury securities. Swap spreads had never moved more than two or three basis
    points in a two-day period. On the morning of August 21, 1998, they moved 21 basis points.
    LTCM’s losses were breathtaking. On August 21 alone, the firm lost $550 million.
    In late August, the fund found itself down 44 percent for the year, with more than 80 percent of its
    losses in its core relative-value trades. The models had judged that kind of loss to be a 14-standard deviation
    event, something that occurs once in several billion times the life of the universe. But the
    event had occurred within five years of the fund’s launch.

    7 page PDF summary here:
    guava.physics.uiuc.edu/…/Derivatives%20Strategy%20-%20April’99_ %20LTCM%20Speaks.pdf

    This has nothing to do with Eakins’ PDO, but fascinating nonetheless.

  142. AZOIL says:

    RexLibris: For me it comes down to whether Marner is a true center or a Curtis Lazar center.

    Lazar played C for the Oil Kings, but everyone know by watching his game and positioning that W was going to be his ticket. Same went for Henrik Samuelsson.

    If Marner is a C posting those numbers, I take him without hesitation. If he is a RW, then I think you have the debate about whose ceiling is higher: Strome or Marner.

    There is also the aspect of Marner playing wing alongside your pass-happy big center Draisaitl in a few years’ time, so there are several factors to consider here.

    Put it this way, whichever of the two they select, provided Eichel and McDavid are unavailable, it is unlikely either one will be our next Jason Bonsignore.

    You put Marner alongside Dr. Drai in a few years and we have some fun hockey to watch! I still say we try and get a big experienced C like Jumbo Joe and help with the C and mentoring of all these young guys. Unless Roy turns out to be OK, I would still like someone better if they are out there.

    Lets say we do draft Marner, do we then have some more options at trading one of Eberle or Yak to get a 1D? Maybe after a year or two and see who pans out?

  143. GCW_69 says:

    frjohnk: Nelson
    Shots for from the box 11.6 per game
    Shots against from the box 14.2 per game

    Shots for /60 min 24.9
    Shots against /60 min 28.8

    Scoring Chances For %
    41.3%

    Not sure where you are getting your stats. The following are from before the Washington game:

    You have to be careful using raw corsi.

    The Oilers under Eakins spent 46% of their even strength time trailing, when teams tend to rack up positive corsi events. In the last ten games, the oilers have only trailed 25% of the time.

    The only situation where the Oilers are playing noticeably worse under Nelson from a corsi perspective is with the score tied. They are playing much better with the lead.

    Situation. Eakins. Nelson.

    Down 2 or more – 54.7 – 56.4

    Down 1 – 53.6 – 52.3

    Tied – 51.2 – 45.3

    Up 1 – 39.9 – 44.4

    Up 2 or more – 36.3 – 36.0

    The sample size for Nelson is still small at ten games, so this could change.

  144. Adam Wu says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”:
    Adam Wu,

    I’m no physicist, but I love this stuff nonetheless. Here’s my fun history contribution for the day.

    The amazing story of LTCM in 1998 and how a bunch of Nobel laureates suffered some of the biggest financial losses in history.

    Excerpt from a college paper on this:

    Then came August 1998, when the market moves were sharper than anything the firm had
    expected. On August 17, Russia announced it was restructuring its bond payments—a de facto
    default. The losses forced many investment banks, hedge funds and other institutional investors to
    reduce their positions en masse. The flight to quality boosted prices for Treasury bonds and sunk
    prices for lower quality bonds in an unprecedented fashion.
    Credit spreads had never moved so far so fast. The most dramatic manifestation of the
    phenomenon was in swap spreads, which represent the differential in interest rates paid by highgrade
    banks and Treasury securities. Swap spreads had never moved more than two or three basis
    points in a two-day period. On the morning of August 21, 1998, they moved 21 basis points.
    LTCM’s losses were breathtaking. On August 21 alone, the firm lost $550 million.
    In late August, the fund found itself down 44 percent for the year, with more than 80 percent of its
    losses in its core relative-value trades. The models had judged that kind of loss to be a 14-standard deviation
    event, something that occurs once in several billion times the life of the universe. But the
    event had occurred within five years of the fund’s launch.

    7 page PDF summary here:
    guava.physics.uiuc.edu/…/Derivatives%20Strategy%20-%20April’99_ %20LTCM%20Speaks.pdf

    This has nothing to do with Eakins’ PDO, but fascinating nonetheless.

    Of course, the statistical models make the assumption of a normal distribution (you can mathematically adjust for a non-normal distribution, but you have to either know, or guess, as to what way it is not normal) and they also generally make the assumption that the only things that can affect the outcome are the variables already in the model plus chance variance, and that all the real-life things that might affect the model but are not or cannot be included in the model either do not exist, have too small an effect to matter, or cancel each other out.

    If any of those assumptions are NOT true…. well then, we have, as the Chinese have said, “interesting times”.

    6 sigma significant results that get published in the physics literature are not infrequently challenged by other physicists who point out the existence of other factors that can affect the result that the original experiments did not account for sufficiently, often backed up by 6 sigma significance analyses of their own….

  145. AZOIL says:

    GCW_69: Not sure where you are getting your stats.The following are from before the Washington game:

    You have to be careful using raw corsi.

    The Oilers under Eakins spent 46% of their even strength time trailing, when teams tend to rack up positive corsi events. In the last ten games, the oilers have only trailed 25% of the time.

    The only situation where the Oilers are playing noticeably worse under Nelson from a corsi perspective is with the score tied. They are playing much better with the lead.

    Situation. Eakins. Nelson.

    Down 2 or more – 54.7 – 56.4

    Down 1 – 53.6 – 52.3

    Tied – 51.2 – 45.3

    Up 1 – 39.9 – 44.4

    Up 2 or more – 36.3 – 36.0

    The sample size for Nelson is still small at ten games, so this could change.

    Those look better, so who is right? frjohnk or GCW-69?

  146. GCW_69 says:

    Lowetide: Erik Johnson, Thomas Hickey, Karl Alzner, Luke Schenn, Jared Cowen, Erik Gudbranson say hello.

    I think Colorado is pretty happy with Johnson. As is Washington with Alzner. He would Have looked fine in Oiler silks. And Gudbranson is still under 300 games and could still be an impact defenceman.

    So, not sure I understand your point.

  147. frjohnk says:

    leadfarmer:
    Lowetide,

    No I think that you disregarding two guys that absolutely bombed in actual lottery positions because they fit the idea that forwards are good, I used komisarek because he was first d taken although outside of the established lottery position.

    frjohnk,

    So to cover their position the D have to be near Hall of Fame caliber while the forwards just have to be top 6 or there about. I take it you are one of those people whO think there are only 5 top pairing defenseman in the NHL

    2005 draft
    J Johnson no
    B Lee no
    L Bourdon RIP

    2006 draft
    Erik Johnson, no because he is not a franchise D man. number 1 pick should be a river pusher. He is not.

    2007
    Hickey, Alzner, Ellerby all No

    2008
    Doughty, Pieto Yes
    Schenn and Bogosian NO, Bogo might and I said that in my comment

    2009
    Hedman and OEL yes
    Cowan No

    2010
    Gudbrandson, McIlrath no

    2011
    Larrsson no
    Hamilton and Brodin yes

    6 guys cover the bet.
    13 don’t.

    Personally I don’t have a problem picking a D man in the top 10.
    For me last year it was Ekblad 10 times out of 10 at number 1.

    And this year I would be fine with oilers picking Hanifan number 3. I do like Marner though

    I think the problem with the D men that have been picked at the top that have not panned out is that most were big in junior, had OK skill and were not great skaters. In junior they were studs.

    But these types of players can not translate their game well to the NHL.

    I think its more that the scouts did not project these guys properly than it is “picking D men at the top is voodoo”

  148. B S says:

    Adam Wu,

    True, I’m using the biology standard here and I should have been clear on what my standard for significant difference represented. It’s worth pointing out that 3 teams this season are outside 2 standard deviations (Car. Buf. and Edm.) from PDO from this season and from last season, what are the odds of that?.

    I guess my point is that at what stage do we stop thinking the Eakins’ effect was due to bad luck (note here I would consider “luck” to be factors outside of Eakins’ influence) versus his coaching having a significant effect on shooting and save percentages? As I was taught the further from the mean you are the less likely you belong to that population/sample, and therefore the less likely you would be to regress to that mean. I think the best way to check this might be to look at cumulative PDO on a game by game basis and check trends (for example Colorado last year, does their PDO stay high the whole season, sharply decrease? or gradually fall).

    Contrary to what others on this blog (W.G. being the most prominent) have concluded from the timing, I think it’s worth noting that PDO turned north last season precisely when Eakins changed his systems to ones that produced poorer possession stats. I don’t know what it is but it seems that something about Eakins (not necessarily his systems, could be how he treats players in the locker room, or on the bench these are human beings after all, not robots) had a negative effect on player performance.

  149. frjohnk says:

    GCW_69: Not sure where you are getting your stats.The following are from before the Washington game:

    You have to be careful using raw corsi.

    The Oilers under Eakins spent 46% of their even strength time trailing, when teams tend to rack up positive corsi events. In the last ten games, the oilers have only trailed 25% of the time.

    The only situation where the Oilers are playing noticeably worse under Nelson from a corsi perspective is with the score tied. They are playing much better with the lead.

    Situation. Eakins. Nelson.

    Down 2 or more – 54.7 – 56.4

    Down 1 – 53.6 – 52.3

    Tied – 51.2 – 45.3

    Up 1 – 39.9 – 44.4

    Up 2 or more – 36.3 – 36.0

    The sample size for Nelson is still small at ten games, so this could change.

    This is what I got from war on ice all situations
    Eakins CF%53.2% PDO 95.2
    Nelson CF%55.5% PDO 98.0

    Tied
    Eakins CF% 52.2% PDO 97.2
    Nelson CF% 45.7% PDO 101.8

    Leading
    Eakins CF% 45.0% PDO 96.5
    Nelson CF% 42.% PDO 103.7

    The biggest thing is that Eakins trailed and was tied a bigger % of the time. So his overall corsi will be better because of a higher weighting to being tied/trailing. And we all know that when teams are behind they will have better corsi.

    So that is why I used this.
    Score Adjusted
    Eakins CF% 50.5%PDO 96.6
    Nelson CF% 47.7% PDO 101.2

    Eakins did have a better scoring chances for % as I have mentioned in previous comments

    Nelson is getting 11.6 shots for from the box and is giving up 14.2 shots from the box
    Eakins was about even. I don’t have the exact numbers in front of me.

    Score effects with the last two are something to consider as well.

  150. supernova says:

    frjohnk: 2005 draft
    J Johnson no
    B Lee no
    L Bourdon RIP

    2006 draft
    Erik Johnson, no because he is not a franchise D man.number 1 pick should be a river pusher.He is not.

    2007
    Hickey, Alzner, Ellerby all No

    2008
    Doughty, Pieto Yes
    Schenn and Bogosian NO, Bogo might and I said that in my comment

    2009
    Hedman and OEL yes
    Cowan No

    2010
    Gudbrandson, McIlrath no

    2011
    Larrsson no
    Hamilton and Brodin yes

    6 guys cover the bet.
    13 don’t.

    Personally I don’t have a problem picking a D man in the top 10.
    For me last year it was Ekblad 10 times out of 10 at number 1.

    And this year I would be fine with oilers picking Hanifan number 3.I do like Marner though

    I think the problem with the D men that have been picked at the top that have not panned out is that most were big in junior, had OK skill and were not great skaters.In junior they were studs.

    But these types of players can not translate their game well to the NHL.

    I think its more that the scouts did not project these guys properly than it is “picking D men at the top is voodoo”

    frjohnk,

    Couldn’t the answer be that it also depends on draft year?

    all draft years are not created equal.

    Look at the whole 2012 top 10 and compare it to say 2010 top 10 after the same time period.

  151. supernova says:

    AZOIL: Those look better, so who is right? frjohnk or GCW-69?

    AZOIL,

    GCW_69,

    frjohnk,

    AZOIL you sound like me.

    I prefer to ask the question even though I understand the data. I find the conversation flows much better that way.

  152. leadfarmer says:

    supernova,

    Frjohnk you’re whole description of E Johnson is my point. To count as a successful D people use a Franchise d level as a measure of success but are ok labeling a top 6 forward as success.

    I bet if u asked Washington about Alzner and Winnipeg about Bogo they would like them very much and wouldn’t accept some of those 23 successful forward picks in a one to one trade. You can find wingers in free agency or trades, you can’t find many good dman

  153. Lowetide says:

    leadfarmer:
    supernova,

    I bet if u asked Washington about Alzner and Winnipeg about Bogo they would like them very much and wouldn’t accept some of those 23 successful forward picks in a one to one trade.You can find wingers in free agency or trades, you can’t find many good dman

    Alzner is NOT good value for that spot guys, he just isn’t. And Komisarek wasn’t and any number of these guys weren’t. Johnson was so good they traded him and it took him YEARS to be an above average player.

    Hanifin’s offense makes him a very wobbly pick at three. If you end up with Jay Bouwmeester that’s wonderful, but Marner is a far better bet at that number.

  154. spoiler says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”: In late August, the fund found itself down 44 percent for the year, with more than 80 percent of its
    losses in its core relative-value trades. The models had judged that kind of loss to be a 14-standard deviation
    event, something that occurs once in several billion times the life of the universe. But the
    event had occurred within five years of the fund’s launch.

    You forgot, “and then Black Swan became a NYT bestseller…” lol.

    I think the problem here is equating the physical world with the human world. Because the variables involved in the human world are so vast and largely unknowable, it is impossible to model for them and you get results that look like 14 SD events. With the proper model, perhaps that’s not a 14 SD event but right under the fat part of the curve.

    This is similar to the reason why I believe commodity trading should be limited to those things that are affected mostly by nature and not man made effects. Wheat should be traded, gold should not be (it should be a currency but that’s another story, one I’m sure you know well).

    Edit: I see Adam has said something similar already.

    PS It should also be pointed out that the Nobel Prize for Economics is largely based on politics and not talent, nor is it really a Nobel Prize other than carrying the Nobel imprimatur.

  155. spoiler says:

    spoiler: You forgot, “and then Black Swan became a NYT bestseller…” lol.

    And I forgot, “Fooled by Randomness” came first… a great title which sums up a lot of arguments on this blog.

  156. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: Alzner is NOT good value for that spot guys, he just isn’t. And Komisarek wasn’t and any number of these guys weren’t. Johnson was so good they traded him and it took him YEARS to be an above average player.

    Hanifin’s offense makes him a very wobbly pick at three. If you end up with Jay Bouwmeester that’s wonderful, but Marner is a far better bet at that number.

    Erik Johnson got TRADED for

    Then I think we need to define value for that spot more clearly. I think largely to this point we have been using games played.

  157. spoiler says:

    Dan Marr was on Stauffer’s show today and said he would have Hanifin ranked ahead of Ekblad, if they were in the same draft class (but it would be close). He also said Hanifin is better than J-Bo at the same age and should bring more offense than J-Bo.

    He said he has never seen a defenseman play the position as competently as Hanifin at the same age. His reads, his positioning, his execution are all at the very top end of the charts. Outstanding defensive sense.

  158. RexLibris says:

    Gp works as a measure for most draft picks, and I’ve used it extensively.

    However, players taken high in the draft are often given their games rather than earning them because even if they bomb out at one organization another is willing to give them a chance.

    E. Johnson is an example, as is Krys Kolanos and Thomas Hickey. Players taken in the 2nd round and beyond have a harder time accumulating the gps and as a result there could be a project for someone in assessing a relative value of gp based on draft position broken down by draft year (or era to increase sample size) and position (G, D, F).

  159. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide,

    My point is when you define value the forwards have much easier goalposts to hit and when you compare those defensemen to the people chosen around them they do not lag behind. Sure Alzner could of turned out better but so could Gagner and Hamill.

    My point was also not to pass over the top defenseman in the draft so I was more talking about the top one or two defensemen in a draft or guys chosen in the top 6 or so. I don’t know why Toronto picked Schenn as the 5 choice and the 4th defenseman taken, wasnt a good choice that day, but he still is a better pick than the guy chosen after him Filatov.

  160. McSorley33 says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”,

    Most scouts have said Hanifin is considered in the same class as Ekblad and Jones. Agreed that the box cars look a tad shy, but this is no Ryan Murray.
    I’m not expressing an opinion here on the discourse on taking D-men Top 10 or not, but if Hanifin is as good as the scouts say, he should be a very strong prospect.
    ****************************************************************************************
    Surely, at some point we can’t keep drafting high end forwards?

    Petry ( 2nd round ) Nurse ( 1st round ) Klefbobm ( 1st round )

    How long can we watch the likes of NN, Ference and Schultz…..

    If we take Strome – this will be the 3rd high end centre we have taken in the last 4 drafts.

    At some point, we need to obtain * high end * D-men.

    They don’t fall off trees. They are obtained in the 1st or 2nd rounds of the draft.

    I am not going to advocate passing Marner or Strome – but nobody around the league is saying the Oilers have D help in OKC coming.

    My vote is to peddle a trade to move up our Pens pick for a D-man. And use the 2nd round pick on a Dman.

    We don’t need a monster home run either from a D. NN, Ference and Schulz are an extremely low bar to clear….

    Deep draft.

    C Depth vs D Depth.

  161. Lowetide says:

    leadfarmer:
    Lowetide,

    My point is when you define value the forwards have much easier goalposts to hit and when you compare those defensemen to the people chosen around them they do not lag behind.Sure Alzner could of turned out better but so could Gagner and Hamill.

    My point was also not to pass over the top defenseman in the draft so I was more talking about the top one or two defensemen in a draft or guys chosen in the top 6 or so.I don’t know why Toronto picked Schenn as the 5 choice and the 4th defenseman taken, wasnt a good choice that day, but he still is a better pick than the guy chosen after him Filatov.

    Yes, agreed. I see your point.

  162. GCW_69 says:

    frjohnk: This is what I got from war on ice all situations
    Eakins CF%53.2% PDO 95.2Nelson CF%55.5% PDO 98.0

    TiedEakins CF% 52.2% PDO 97.2Nelson CF% 45.7% PDO 101.8

    LeadingEakins CF% 45.0% PDO 96.5Nelson CF% 42.% PDO 103.7

    The biggest thing is that Eakins trailed and was tied a bigger % of the time. So his overall corsi will be better because of a higher weighting to being tied/trailing.And we all know that when teams are behind they will have better corsi.

    So that is why I used this.
    Score AdjustedEakins CF% 50.5%PDO 96.6Nelson CF% 47.7% PDO 101.2

    Eakins did have a better scoring chances for % as I have mentioned in previous comments

    Nelson is getting 11.6 shots for from the box and is giving up 14.2 shots from the box
    Eakins was about even.I don’t have the exact numbers in front of me.

    Score effects with the last two are something to consider as well.

    I took mine from puck on net. Given how different the distribution of leading vs trailing is between Eakins and Nelson I think looking at the specific ice time situations is more telling.

  163. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    spoiler,

    Adam Wu,

    This blog never fails to impress me. Don’t forget “A Random Walk Down Wall Street” as well.

    And I agree with both your comments. I decided we haven’t had enough finance talk and since I went all Doomsday on the cap situation, I thought I would take the standard deviation herring and run with it.

    Finance based statistical modeling is only useful in so far as the fact set historical data that is available and the length of time you back test for. If you’re dealing in new products with a limited history, eg, derivatives, how exactly certain can you be that your outer markers have been set. Financial markets develop at a breathless pace as well, compared to say, hockey. Pass the puck, shoot the puck, stop the puck largely hasn’t changed. Credit Default Swaps and CDS derivatives? Absolutely.

    I’m thinking of submitting my resume to Darryl Katz to be the Oilers’ capologist, economist and league revenue projection strategist, so you can all blame me in the future instead of Olczyk or MacT. 😉

  164. rickithebear says:

    Mcdavids 17yr 8.25month to 18 yr 0.25 months
    23 gm +32
    2.61 PPG
    15 EVG 22 EVA 1.61 EVP/gm
    4 PPG 16 PPA .87 PPP/gm
    2SHG 1SHA .13 SHP/gm

    Marner performance age 17yr 5.25 months to 17yr 8.25 months
    32Gm 33G 52A 85P +40
    2.66PPG
    22EVG 28 EVA 1.57 EVP/gm
    10 PPG 24 PPA 1.06 PPP/gm

    marner 3 months younger meaning 12.5% more CHL PPG tramslated to NHL.

  165. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    rickithebear,

    I love that 3 months younger implies 12.5% higher projection. That’s amazing that we can even get to that, but that’s an average, not a promise.

    That said, I’ve heard people stirring the pot by claiming McDavid could well be the 4th best player in this draft, with Manner #1. Now, I think that’s a case of flavor of the month and trying to generate controversy for the sake of it. But interesting.

    Guys, a lot of interesting stuff in this article. Sens taking calls on Methot, Philips, Neil etc. Some stuff on tanking. Some stuff on the Canadian dollar and Melnyk’s financial situation.
    http://ottawacitizen.com/sports/hockey/nhl/senators-extra/phillips-neil-methot-all-could-be-dealt-murray-says

  166. commonfan14 says:

    Oilers host the Pens on February 4th.

    An evil franchise would call up a plugger farm hand with orders to do something awful to Crosby. If he went of the shelf for an extended period, that first round pick could become another lottery ticket.

    However…. that would be wrong.

  167. Adam Wu says:

    B S:
    Adam Wu,

    I guess my point is that at what stage do we stop thinking the Eakins’ effect was due to bad luck (note here I would consider “luck” to be factors outside of Eakins’ influence) versus his coaching having a significant effect on shooting and save percentages?

    Well, from a science standpoint, the point is, always, “right away”.

    Luck, with eventual regression, would be the “null hypothesis”. The base statistics give you an a priori estimation as to how likely the null hypothesis is correct.

    You then have to advance alternate hypotheses that explain how, exactly, his coaching is having a significant effect on shooting and save percentages. Then you have to figure out a way of measuring the things you want to measure to obtain the data, and see if the new data is a better fit to your new hypothesis than the null hypothesis of luck.

    The problem being the things people were proposing as “reasons” for Eakins’ coaching being a cause of the problem were very hard measure.

    But without such measures, the “Eakins sucks, its his coaching’s fault” is nothing but a “just-so story”, which is the life sciences equivalent of “narrative”.

  168. Adam Wu says:

    commonfan14:
    Oilers host the Pens on February 4th.

    An evil franchise would call up a plugger farm hand with orders to do something awful to Crosby.If he went of the shelf for an extended period, that first round pick could become another lottery ticket.

    However…. that would be wrong.

    I think the Penguins have amply proven several times over that losing Crosby, even for an extended period, will not make them a lottery team. It might knock them out of “Stanley Cup contender” or “Eastern Champion contender” category, but all the way down to lottery? Unlikely.

    For one thing, they’d have to sink past Buffalo. And they could GIVE Crosby to Buffalo (ie, lose TWO Crosby’s) and still be the better team….

  169. Ribs says:

    commonfan14: Oilers host the Pens on February 4th.

    Hey! That reminds me! That’s the game the five game winning streak should start with! All Eastern teams!

    Might’ve been a nice stretch if playoffs were on the radar. Oh, well…

  170. Unicorns says:

    B S: B S

    “Something worth considering with PDO. If it is system related (as an example): a team with an exceptionally good system will have a high PDO, but other teams will eventually learn to counter that system, causing a regression to the mean. Teams with a bad system must change their system to improve, if the new system is no more effective than the old one then PDO will remain low.

    In other words good teams can have high PDO but it will always decrease if they stay the same, it doesn’t even have to be a systems advantage either, it could be player motivation or confidence or player deployment (coaching tactics), regardless other teams will work to counter it. Teams with a low PDO will not improve it unless there is a significant change (could be system related, or it could be player skill level or motivation/confidence, but if it stays the same PDO will remain low.”

    ___________

    PDO is a really reliable in regressing to 1000

    http://hockey-graphs.com/2014/02/04/nhl-outperforming-pdo-leafs-canucks-bruins-senators/

    In the short term perhaps there may be emotional or systemic effects on PDO, but in the long term good teams come down and bad teams go up regardless of anything else that’s obvious over time. It’s possible its influenced by scheduling, health and such issues, though I don’t recall anyone looking at PDO that way. What I’ve read looks at if anyone has sustained a high or low PDO and they haven’t, there’s no discernable PDO talent (or lack thereof).

    I think other stats may be skewed by abnormality such as Corsi based stats. Buffalo is a prime example, historically bad, but that is only happening because they are creating it on purpose. Their PDO from Hockey Analysis is currently 99.4, Corsi For % 37.5. The Oilers are PDO 97.2 and CF% 49.0 for the season.

    A team truly competing will be approaching 50 CF% not 37.5. The Oilers are also low usually in CF% for basically the same reason, although some say incompetence and some say it’s intentional, probably both. Perhaps we could combine the two factors and make another PDO like combined stat for failure.

  171. RexLibris says:

    Ray Whitney makes his retirement official today, TSN.

    Sail on, stickboy.

  172. godot10 says:

    Lowetide: Erik Johnson, Thomas Hickey, Karl Alzner, Luke Schenn, Jared Cowen, Erik Gudbranson say hello.

    No draft eligible D who played a big role in the World Junior tournament has failed in recent history. Doughty, Bouwmeester, Ekblad, Fowler, Johnson (2 major injuries, now a shutdown D) say hello.
    #JustSayNoah

    I haven’t checked how much Ekman-Larsson or Carlsson played.

  173. dannyboy says:

    frjohnk: I ran his numbers from last year, very comparable to Stamkos in junior
    They suggest a player that peaksin the NHL at 98 points.

    This years numbers suggests a player that peaks in the NHL at 100 points.

    His numbers blow away Toews at the same age in the NCAA but Toews made tremendous leaps in development from age 18 to 22.

    Eichels numbers from last year in the USHL are comparable to Kane and Kessel as 17 yearolds.

    I calculated if he were to be playing junior this year, he would be averaging around 2.3 points a game.
    McDavid 2.6
    Marner 2.1

    This is a really good hockey player.

    Thanks!

  174. godot10 says:

    Lowetide:

    Hanifin’s offense makes him a very wobbly pick at three. If you end up with Jay Bouwmeester that’s wonderful, but Marner is a far better bet at that number.

    Hanifan is playing in college against 21 and 22 year olds. It depends how much PP time he is getting as a freshman, which might not be much. You just can look at the boxcars. You have to look at the circumstances of his actual situation. There are not many 17-year old draft eligibles in US college anymore with more players taking an extra year in the USHL.

  175. Lowetide says:

    New post up.

  176. B S says:

    Unicorns,

    How long does it have to be to be PDO talent? 40+ games seems like a large sample size to me. The problem with including data across large large time frames (especially when it is zero sum, or in this case 1.0 sum) is that people compensate over time. The season after Eberle posted his highest shooting percentage he was told to shoot more. Naturally he will take lower quality shots more often, resulting in a lower shooting percentage.

    The other side of the equation is that good shooters get researched, goalies learn their tendencies and tricks, this also “regresses” shots. How long does this take? Certainly not more than a season I would think.

    Typically coaches with crappy results are let go pretty quickly as well. most teams wouldn’t have held on to Eakins as long as MacT did, revolving door of coaches or not, though they may have also tried more trades first.

  177. Lowetide says:

    We seem to be getting very personal in some of our posts. Please be respectful. Thanks.

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