IN A LONELY PLACE

The Top Prospects Game gave us a lot to think about and really calls into question the rankings, beginning at No. 3 and going all the way to No. 30. We’ll be tweaking up to draft day but here’s the latest look at the 30 best players in the draft.

THE TOP 30 PLAYERS IN THE 2015 DRAFT

  1. (1) C Connor McDavid, Erie Otters (OHL) 24gp, 22-39-61 (2.54) 2gp, 3-1-4 stunning in TPG
  2. (2) C Jack Eichel, Boston U (NCAA) 21gp, 12-23-35 (1.67) 2gp, 2-1-3
  3. (3) C Mitch Marner, London Knights (OHL) 43gp, 35-56-91 (2.12) 2gp, 2-3-5 flashes of brilliance in TPG
  4. (5) D Noah Hanifin, Boston College (NCAA) 23gp, 3-11-14 (0.61) 2gp, 0-2-2
  5. (4) C Dylan Strome, Erie Otters (OHL) 44gp, 29-52-81 (1.84) 2gp, 1-3-4 flashes in TPG
  6. (6) D Oliver Kylington, Farjestad (SHL) 17gp, 2-3-5 (0.29) May be playing in Swe-1 AIK
  7. (7) D Zach Werenski, Michigan (NCAA). 19gp, 3-13-16 (0.84) 1gp, 0-1-1 in NCAA
  8. (8) R Mikko Rantanen, TPS Turku (SML). 37gp, 4-11-15 (0.41) 2gp, 1-0-1 in SM-Liiiga
  9. (9) D Ivan Provorov, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL) 41gp, 11-30-41 (1.31) 2gp, 0-0-0 and splendid in TPG
  10. (11) C Nick Merkley, Kelowna (WHL). 46gp, 14-51-65 (1.41)  1gp, 0-1-1 in W, quiet at TPG
  11. (10) L Evgeni Svechnikov, Cape Breton (QMJHL). 35gp, 17-29-46 (1.31) 3gp, 1-0-1 had a moment or two in TPG
  12. (15) D Jeremy Roy, Sherbrooke Phoenix (QMJHL) 40gp, 5-34-3 (0.98) 2gp, 0-1-1 and smooth at TPG
  13. (17) C Anthony Beauvillier, Shawinigan Cataractes (QMJHL). 46gp, 32-38-70 (1.52)  2gp, 2-4-6 and a few chances at TPG
  14. (14) C Pavel Zacha, Sarnia Sting (OHL) 26gp, 11-12-23 (0.88) Didn’t play this week
  15. (22) L Lawson Crouse, Kingston Frontenacs (OHL). 31gp, 16-7-23 (0.74) 3gp, 2-0-2 and very noticeable TPG
  16. (12) C Jansen Harkins, Prince George Cougars (WHL) 47gp, 14-39-53 (1.13) 4gp, 1-2-3 played in TPG
  17. (13) C Mathew Barzal, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL) 17gp, 7-11-18 (1.06) 1gp, 0-0-0 just back from injury
  18. (16) C Filip Chlapik, Charlottetown Islanders (QMJHL). 43gp, 23-29-52 (1.21) 3gp, 4-1-5  & took a hit played well at TPG
  19. (19) R Daniel Sprong, Charlettown Islanders (QMJHL) 47gp, 22-31-53 (1.13) 3gp, 0-5-5 & got noticed at TPG
  20. (NR) R Timo Meier, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). 38gp, 25-32-57  (1.50) Ridiculous at TPG
  21. (18) R Nikita Korostelev, Sarnia Sting (OHL). 34gp, 16-20-36 (1.06) Didn’t play this week
  22. (24) C Travis Konecny, Ottawa 67’s (OHL). 42gp, 19-22-41 (0.98) 1gp, 0-0-0 and shone brightly at TPG
  23. (20) L Jake Debrusk, Swift Current (WHL). 47gp, 25-21-46 (0.98) 2gp, 1-0-1 and had some moments at TPG
  24. (21) D Mitchell Vande Sompel, Oshawa (OHL) 36gp, 6-34-40 (1.11) Didn’t play this week
  25. (27) L Dennis Yan, Shawinigan Cataractes (QMJHL). 32gp, 20-22-42 (1.31) 2gp, 1-1-2
  26. (23) R Jens Looke, Brynas (SHL). 32gp, 2-4-6 (0.19) 1gp, 0-0-0
  27. (25) D Jakub Zboril, Saint John Seadogs (QMJHL). 33gp, 8-14-22 (0.67) Didn’t play this week
  28. (26) C Jeremy Bracco, USND (USHL). 11gp, 7-8-15 (1.36) 2gp, 2-1-3
  29. (28) C Kyle Connor, Youngstown (USHL). 30gp, 14-24-38 (1.27) 2gp, 2-2-4
  30. (29) L Ryan Gropp, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL). 40gp, 16-17-33 (0.83) 1gp, 0-0-0 & solid at TPG
 
Significant movement and a lot of it had to do with top prospects but the release of Central’s list will also impact over the next while. Expect to see a goalie or two emerge and Europe always has some late breakers who climb into the first round (seems that last push in March-April is the time scouts decide on the kids playing over there). The top 9 in this draft look exceptional—that’s a big number, and I think my list may underrate Zacha, Crouse, Barzal and Meier. I certainly underrated the Q kids and that’s fairly typical, it’s the one league you really don’t get a lot out of (compared to WHL and OHL) during the year.

doreyJim Dorey, Leafs

 I’ve mentioned this dozens of times but back in the late ’60s and early ’70s the Toronto Maple Leafs taught us a great lesson in young defensemen, how they develop and our ability to identify one or two correctly in a group of many. After Toronto won the Stanley with Allan Stanley and Bob Baun and Tim Horton and Larry Hillman (all older gents) they went about replacing them over a two or three year period. The Leafs were swimming in defensive prospects, here, allow me to list them all (with career NHL & WHA GP) in order to make my point.
  • Jim McKenny (604 NHL games, was often mentioned as ‘similar to Orr, was in the movie Face Off)
  • Mike Pelyk (591 total, 441 NHL games, at one point thought to be the best of the group)
  • Jim Dorey (663 total, 232 NHL games and my favorite. Tough, crazy and had some genuine ability)
  • Rick Ley (788 total, 310 NHL games. Hard as nails, my Dad thought he had no brains)
  • Brian Glennie (572 NHL games, he was more a depth player than the others on this list)
  • Brad Selwood (594 total, 163 NHL games. Maybe the best offensive defenseman in the group)
They all had moments when it looked like they would be NHL players for a long time, most suffered significant injuries and iirc they all got sent down after their NHL debuts. This is a pretty talented cluster—no superstars but if idiot Ballard had kept them all this bunch added to Borje Salming would probably have rivaled Montreal and Boston by 1975. The thing they had in common—and the current Oilers group has in common—are the following:

  • They rarely progress without regress
  • They often struggle in their progression from prospect to player after their NHL arrival
  • Shouldn’t be counted on to push anything before 200+ NHL games
  • Rarely surprise in a good way for an entire season
  • Sometimes find their way in a different organization.

Let’s take the current Oilers kids and post them in a similar way:

  • Martin Marincin (56 NHL games, effective a year ago and much less so this year)
  • Oscar Klefbom (42 NHL games, most arrows in a good direction this season)
  • Darnell Nurse (2 NHL games and has the strongest resume in the group)
  • Brandon Davidson (4 NHL games and more of a depth player than others on this list)

And let’s continue into the AHL group and list them as well:

  • Martin Gernat (91 AHL games and most arrows heading downward)
  • David Musil (97 AHL games and more good arrows than bad)
  • Dillon Simpson (39 AHL games and appears to be adjusting well)
  • Jordan Oesterle (42 AHL games and has some offensive acumen that will get noticed)

When we talk this morning about Martin Marincin and his disappointing season, and about Darnell Nurse and his quality year thus far, it’s important to remember this is merely a photo in time. One year from now? We may see a completely different view of these players. Do we really know who is going to emerge from this group and become a quality player for a decade? I’ll bet on Nurse and Klefbom and Marincin but there’s absolutely no way to know.

Young players fool us, defensemen most of all.

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69 Responses to "IN A LONELY PLACE"

  1. frjohnk says:

    Not sure if any Russians make the top 30 but Id expect more Russians get drafted this year than in the last few years.

    Alexander Dergachyov- a late birthdate. He is the kid that had that epic battle with Nurse in the WJC.
    http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=231966
    rated 28th by ISS hockey.
    I have him peaking at around 40 points.

    No guarantee he comes over, but if he were to slide to the 3rd round because of the “Russia factor” he might be a nice pick.

    European skaters
    http://www.eliteprospects.com/draftcenter.php?year=2015&layout=&ranking=Rank7&con=EU

  2. Ben says:

    Maybe they don’t see a future with Marincin. Ok. We know that at least one team thought he had trade value last year. So why push him down the ladder so far that it hurts his perceived worth? Why not put him in a situation that flatters his potential?

    They’ve most recently done this with Perron, waiting until well into the season and failing to play him with a NHL centreman. Gagner before him. Dubnyk. Hemsky. And they’re about to do it with Petry. Selling low. Again and again.

    This is absolutely putrid asset management.

    Memo to front office: it’s “pump and dump”, not “deflate and cut bait”.

  3. PeOiler says:

    Last night Chlapik was mugged by 2 players beside the net but refused to fight. A teammate ended up coming to his rescue (in a manner not regularly displayed by the NHL Oilers). Chlapik also turned a shot and a prayer into the game winner last night with 2ish minutes left.

    I only saw the score of the TPG, but good to hear the two Islanders at least were noticeable.

  4. Mr DeBakey says:

    Rick Ley (788 total, 310 NHL games. Hard as nails, my Dad thought he had no brains)

    Your Dad was right again!

    Brad Selwood (594 total, 163 NHL games. Maybe the best offensive defenseman in the group)

    Slow yes?
    – –

    Glennie was a pretty good player [better than just depth] but had a bad habit of Big-Screw-Up at Big-Time.

  5. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    So… is this a reference to the Nicholas Ray film or to the New Order B-side to Ceremony?

    Both are fine items to draw attention to.

  6. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    So… is this a reference to the Nicholas Ray film or to the New Order B-side to Ceremony?

    Both are fine items to draw attention to.

    Movie. I thought of it in regard to the empty seats behind him and my current feeling about anyone drafting No. 3 overall. You’ve lost a chance to have a piece of history—the GM taking McDavid or Eichel is instantly smarter in history’s eyes—but that No. 3 slot is where the money is officially earned.

  7. Lowetide says:

    Mr DeBakey:
    Rick Ley (788 total, 310 NHL games. Hard as nails, my Dad thought he had no brains)

    Your Dad was right again!

    Brad Selwood (594 total, 163 NHL games. Maybe the best offensive defenseman in the group)

    Slow yes?
    – –

    Glennie was a pretty good player [better than just depth] but had a bad habit of Big-Screw-Up at Big-Time.

    Selwood made the right move to the WHA imo, suspect he would have been passed soon in Toronto (by 1973 they had Salming, Turnbull and McKenny had grabbed a job). Glennie hung around but my memory of his was a lot of healthy scratches during those years and inability to stay in the lineup.

  8. jp says:

    Lowetide:

    (6) D Oliver Kylington, Farjestad (SHL) 17gp, 2-3-5 (0.29) May be playing in Swe-1 AIK

    According to Elite Prospects he was indeed loaned to AIK on 11/10/2014.

    http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=142238

  9. hunter1909 says:

    Ben:
    Maybe they don’t see a future with Marincin. Ok. We know that at least one team thought he had trade value last year.So why push him down the ladder so far that it hurts his perceived worth?Why not put him in a situation that flatters his potential?

    They’ve most recently done this with Perron, waiting until well into the season and failing to play him with a NHL centreman.Gagner before him. Dubnyk. Hemsky. And they’re about to do it with Petry.Selling low.Again and again.

    This is absolutely putrid asset management.

    Memo to front office:it’s “pump and dump”, not “deflate and cut bait”.

    I’ve had these idiots pegged for years, and here’s the MO: “We don’t want to give anyone away we value ever, so instead we run them out of town on a rail with full support from the local hicksville media. We also reckon we’re the heirs to Glen Sather, who during the dynasty never bothered much about drafting/development anyway.”

    Look how great we did with Chris Pronger! Look how great we did with Chris Pronger!

  10. Lowetide says:

    I think MacT has done some good things and the Perron trade isn’t as bad as people here believe. He didn’t get traded at peak value but that was a good hockey deal. What they get with the pick is the big item. He has to be better than Barbashev to make it work.

    MacT also seems to be doing well on that crazy trade.

  11. Snowman says:

    Why is the perceived treatment of MM considered exile instead of development? Who cares if he is up here right now? Hes not exactly lighting the farm team on fire and patience is the agreed upon requirement for developing young d.

  12. G Money says:

    I thought Marner was a winger? You have him listed as a C.

    If he is a C and tearing it up, he moves up a notch in the value-to-Oilers rating in my books.

  13. G Money says:

    Ben: “deflate and cut bait”

    Ha! Beauty!

  14. Ca$h-Money! says:

    G Money,

    My reading is that he’s a winger. Lots of elite talent plays C in junior, most move to wing and it’s not even a surprise (Jordan Eberle being a good example). Heck fully half of the Lethbridge Hurricanes forwards corps. is listed officially as C., and that’s not generally considered to be elite talent in most circles.

  15. G Money says:

    Ca$h-Money!,

    Yep. But it makes those who stick at C more valuable I think. And of course, the NHL still lists Ebs as a C!

  16. Lowetide says:

    G Money:
    I thought Marner was a winger?You have him listed as a C.

    If he is a C and tearing it up, he moves up a notch in the value-to-Oilers rating in my books.

    G Money: I changed it to reflect Central Scouting. I hadn’t seen their list until this week.

  17. Cameron says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    So… is this a reference to the Nicholas Ray film or to the New Order B-side to Ceremony?

    Both are fine items to draw attention to.

    Personally, I prefer the song;

    http://youtu.be/iFteKByG5Q4

    But then I was a New Order junkie from the earliest stages.

  18. Jeremy says:

    Should the Oilers management be worried about selecting a college player and that player seeing the shit show in Edmonton and deciding that they are going to utilize the loophole that Schultz did? I understand that the loophole is a bit more difficult now but it is still there.

  19. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Brownlee is trying to trade Ference.

    http://oilersnation.com/2015/1/24/long-way-down

    tough sell… but that would be something!

  20. magisterrex says:

    Snowman: Why is the perceived treatment of MM considered exile instead of development? Who cares if he is up here right now? Hes not exactly lighting the farm team on fire and patience is the agreed upon requirement for developing young d.

    IT seems that every year one player is picked to be the star of the “if only Oilers management didn’t mismanage his ice time” narrative. Almost invariably, they turn out to be less than what the narrative states is their potential, sometimes MUCH less.

    It’s like a feature of this blog, like the 3-1 trade speculation,.

  21. Ben says:

    Jeremy:
    Should the Oilers management be worried about selecting a college player and that player seeing the shit show in Edmonton and deciding that they are going to utilize the loophole that Schultz did?I understand that the loophole is a bit more difficult now but it is still there.

    Why on earth would a college player NOT want to sign here?

    (Unless they’d really rather slug it out in some well-run organization’s development program for four years.)

    The most compelling story that MacT *truly* has to tell these players is that he has no one better than them on the roster today. He can offer them huge undeserved minutes and large undeserved dollars. And he has examples to support his arguments.

    That’s pretty appealing to a kid who’s worked his whole life to get a shot at the bigs.

  22. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    http://www.theplayerstribune.com/tyler-seguin-moving-on/

    Nice piece from Tyler Seguin. Hope the Oilers see that trade as a lesson and don’t send any of their kids away for the wrong reasons. God I wish Nill had come here and made that trade for the Oilers.

    Seguin-Nuge down the middle, and that’s not even counting who we might have added in terms of Draisaitl, etc., (Oilers still a lottery team even with Seguin)

  23. spoiler says:

    Marner is a C in Junior; he centers a line featuring Domi and Dvorak.

    However in the Top Prospects he played wing alongside Strome.

    So present coaching believes Strome to be the more natural center, despite considerable difference in quickness between the two players.

    That said, if Arizona drafts Marner, it is likely he will play C, since they already have both Domi and Dvorak in their system and can thus bring an entire line intact from Junior up to the pros.

    Hanifin is still the best value available in the 3 spot, and will have a much greater impact on winning games with the 25 minutes plus per night he will round into as a mature pro. Trading for wingers is much easier than trading for first pairing Dmen and trading away wingers obtains less value.

    But considering the interest Arizona is likely to have in Marner, the Oilers should be doing everything they can to convince the Yotes that they love Marner and will be drafting him with their first pick. Maybe they can squeeze another bullet out of Arizona.

  24. RexLibris says:

    I had started scanning the EP top draft eligible players a couple weeks ago. Meier jumped out for me then and I’m glad to see he is impressing by eye as well.

    Honestly, if I thought there was a chance he’d be there when the Penguins’ pick comes up I’d be happy with MacTavish retaining it and selecting Meier.

    He’d be a great puck-moving defensive prospect they could develop for a few years and then trade away for a 2nd rounder when he doesn’t hit like Fistric.

  25. spoiler says:

    The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL": Nice piece from Tyler Seguin. Hope the Oilers see that trade as a lesson and don’t send any of their kids away for the wrong reasons

    The Bruins sent him away for the wrong reasons?

  26. Dee Dee says:

    spoiler: The Bruins sent him away for the wrong reasons?

    Seguin was traded because he was the third center on the team and would not replace Bergeron or Krejci.

    Simple as that.

  27. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Dee Dee: Seguin was traded because he was the third center on the team and would not replace Bergeron or Krejci.

    Simple as that.

    that’s what they are saying now that he’s scoring a ton. which is not a good reason.

    at the time of the trade… they leaked a lot of shit about his character.

  28. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Cameron: Personally, I prefer the song;

    http://youtu.be/iFteKByG5Q4

    But then I was a New Order junkie from the earliest stages.

    New Order is a fantastic band.

  29. Rondo says:

    If Oilers do have the # 3 pick , I would choose Hannifin at the moment, Strome looks a lot like Leon D and Marner may end up a winger in the NHL and is small they could have had the better version of Marner last year in Sam Bennett.. Unless Pavel Zacha has a great 2nd half of the season Hannifin makes the most sense to the Oilers.

  30. VanOil says:

    The Oilers D corps looks like it will sink the ship next year and possibly years to come.

    It is such a shame, there is talent in the system. I wish I could see a path forward that is not so dismal but it all seems to hinge on one poor bet.

    That bet is choosing Schultz over Petry.

  31. Dee Dee says:

    The Oilers are frustrating as an organization because through out the many many rebuilds they continually say the right words then immediately do the exact opposite.

    I’ve learned that you have to ignore their words but follow their actions.

    They pursued the tank and draft high strategy but did not develop the necessary support personnel required to build a contending team.

    Hall should have started his career playing with two veterans to teach him, ditto Nuge and Yak.

    Throwing 3 rookies out there to just do whatever they wanted is not a recipe for success.

    Young D should be properly seasoned in the AHL and then anchored with a Vet on the big team

    Anyone the Oilers draft this year will be a minimum of three years away from helping this team unless they win the McDavid lottery.

    The next upcoming year will tell if they finally get it or if they rush Nurse and Draisaitl into the show.

    The sad part, for me, is that after the 2006 cup run, when Lowe announced the rebuild, the Oilers top line was Hemskey, Horcoff, and Smyth. Lowe argued the fact that the team NEEDED the #1 overall picks to build a contender.

    After all this time, if you compare the current #1 line, with all of their high draft picks, to the 2006 line, you can not say they are better. Nor the supporting cast, nor the goaltending.

  32. fifthcartel says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I can’t believe they could have had Bergeron-Seguin down the middle. Then again, this is a team that has traded away Kessel, Wheeler, and Seguin in recent years.

  33. Dee Dee says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: that’s what they are saying now that he’s scoring a ton. which is not a good reason.

    at the time of the trade… they leaked a lot of shit about his character.

    Hey, that’s a time honoured tradition, the Oilers certainly follow that technique as well. How many players were traded from the Oilers cause they were negative influences, or “cancer” in the dressing room.

    Hey this guy was a bad influence on the team, trust us, better to be rid of him.

  34. G Money says:

    magisterrex: IT seems that every year one player is picked to be the star of the “if only Oilers management didn’t mismanage his ice time” narrative. Almost invariably, they turn out to be less than what the narrative states is their potential, sometimes MUCH less.

    It’s like a feature of this blog, like the 3-1 trade speculation,.

    Maybe. Now that they have Nelson upstairs, who’s seen the potential, I’ll assume they are leaving MM down for development until the prove otherwise. The team doesn’t get the benefit of the doubt in most cases, but given the process with Nurse and Klefbom, that isn’t unreasonable.

    spoiler: Hanifin is still the best value available in the 3 spot, and will have a much greater impact on winning games with the 25 minutes plus per night he will round into as a mature pro. Trading for wingers is much easier than trading for first pairing Dmen and trading away wingers obtains less value.

    There is WAY more risk in drafting D high than there is in drafting C high. Hanifin may have 1D potential, but the risk he doesn’t reach an elite NHL level is higher than with Strome, Marner, etc. who are his comparables. That has to factor into any teams drafting process.

  35. Snowman says:

    fifthcartel:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I can’t believe they could have had Bergeron-Seguin down the middle. Then again, this is a team that has traded away Kessel, Wheeler, and Seguin in recent years.

    The Oilers could be sporting Nuge-Seguin-Drai down the middle if they would have made a deal on draft day IIRC.. Not that Sequin really plays center but still.

    Its funny because looking back those trades seem pretty suspect and I would lay money on almost every Oiler fan trading our Management group for that one.

  36. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    spoiler: The Bruins sent him away for the wrong reasons?

    The Bruins keep searching for a first line right winger. Seguin has been a first line right winger on the Spezza-centred line.

    To me, the argument they are floating now that they had Bergeron and Krejci so had no room for Seguin doesn’t hold water.

    The argument that Seguin was “too finesse and didn’t go to the tough areas enough to score” and “lacked focus at times” is an argument that Oilers fans are very familiar with. That’s the most common justification I’ve heard (and it has come straight from Chiarelli’s mouth–read links below from that summer).

    Those arguments, coupled with the brouhaha made about his extra-curricular activities, which Chiarelli danced around but never really stuck his neck out to defend his player on, lead me to believe they moved him for the wrong reasons (whether the reasons were because they incorrectly assessed they had no room for him or incorrectly assessed him to not be big/strong/committed-to-going-to-the-tough-areas-enough, i.e., not a “Bruins-type” player like Lucic, or because they believed he couldn’t mature past his so-called “lack of focus” issues–and by that I’m talking about the on ice stuff Chiarelli talks explicitly about, as well as the off ice stuff he doesn’t deny– factored into his decision (off ice is considered for all players)).

    One could make an argument that the trade “woke Seguin up” and that he never would have reached his full potential in Boston. But that’s a difficult argument to prove.

    I personally would have traded Lucic for a king’s ransom before he started to decline while getting paid a lot more (hello, Kevin and Craig? I’ve got a player you’re interested in) if I wanted to make a move than trade a 21-yr old who had shown he could play at a top level in the NHL and was showing potential to be possibly better.

    http://www.torontosun.com/2013/07/01/bruins-gm-peter-chiarelli-to-tyler-seguin-grow-up

    http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/bruins/post/_/id/13437/chiarelli-explains-decision-to-trade-seguin

    Do you disagree? Was he traded for the “right” reasons?

  37. Unicorns says:

    G Money: Maybe.Now that they have Nelson upstairs, who’s seen the potential, I’ll assume they are leaving MM down for development until the prove otherwise.The team doesn’t get the benefit of the doubt in most cases, but given the process with Nurse and Klefbom, that isn’t unreasonable.

    There is WAY more risk in drafting D high than there is in drafting C high.Hanifin may have 1D potential, but the risk he doesn’t reach an elite NHL level is higher than with Strome, Marner, etc. who are his comparables.That has to factor into any teams drafting process.

    I would say far higher chance of not reaching potential than Eichel or McDavid, but not Strome or Marner. They both have red flags, Marner in physicality, Strome in speed. Hanifin has a full package, no downside, and many say he’d go first many years. They aren’t saying that about the others or even that they stay top 5. This draft is deep in talent but not sure things.

  38. spoiler says:

    G Money: There is WAY more risk in drafting D high than there is in drafting C high. Hanifin may have 1D potential, but the risk he doesn’t reach an elite NHL level is higher than with Strome, Marner, etc. who are his comparables. That has to factor into any teams drafting process.

    There isn’t WAY more, wow lol, but there is more, when we are talking about the general, but here we are talking about the specific. Nor was I talking about Cs but about Ws, which Marner will be in the NHL. The D in this specific case offers the better value pick.

    Applying the general to the specific is very poor thinking. Especially since there isn’t exactly a dearth of data on the specific prospects.

    Hanifin is in the class of Jones and Ekblad. Most importantly, his hockey sense is off the charts, better than both those players, and to me that’s the best indicator of whether a D will bust or not. The next indicator for me is skating. Hanifin’s is described as “superb”. This is about as surefire a D pick as it gets. He has what is known as a “high floor”. Remember this is a kid that was being mentioned in the same breath as McDavid and Eichel. (Of course now that discussion has just become.. McDavid.)

    Marr, head of CSS said the other day that the three horse race has become one player and then two players and then another drop off. McDavid the clear head of the class, followed by Eichel and Hanifin. These are his comparables. I would add Marner as possibly being in there, I would not add Strome.

    I really like Provorov and Kylington too, plenty of upside to both, but neither have the floor that Hanifin has, so of course there is more risk there.

    When it comes to forwards there are individual prospects that we can recognize as having bigger boom or bust risks too. Crouse for example looks like a surefire NHLer. As safe a pick as it gets. But will he be Gordon, Hanzal. Holik, or maybe John Leclair? That’s much harder to say, but the upsde, unlike Hanifin doesn’t look like it is there. And that’s why he isn’t in my top 5. Marner could be exceptional, but he also might not make the bigs, or be Hemsky. More boom and bust in this individual than say Crouse, if risk averse is going to be your deciding factor.

    And at the end of the day, the defenseman is going to have more trade value than the winger. If the prospect doesn’t hit his full potential, you are going to, as GM, much rather wish it was a C or a D you are shopping than a W.

    Hanifin, BVA at #3.

  39. godot10 says:

    Dee Dee:

    Hall should have started his career playing with two veterans to teach him, ditto Nuge and Yak.

    Hall played his first year with Horcoff (and Eberle). Behind Penner, Gagner, and Hemsky. Perfectly appropriate way to break in Hall.

    Nuge started his rookie yaar with Smyth (and Eberle). Nothing particularly wrong with that. And by the 2nd half of the season, it was Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, and Eberle with a Renney time cap,

    All three (Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, and Eberle) were rocking-n-rolling against the top lines in the league by Krueger’s year. And Paajarvi had been rehabilitated.

    Yakupov in his rookie year played controlled even strength minutes mostly with either Gagner and Hemsky, or alternatively with Horcoff.

    In each of those season there was a clear plan.

    The problems only returned when MacT and Eakins took over and they clearly had no plan for Yakupov in his 2nd or 3rd years. They screwed up this year for Yakupov by keeping Draisaitl.

  40. AZOIL says:

    Ca$h-Money!:
    G Money,

    My reading is that he’s a winger.Lots of elite talent plays C in junior, most move to wing and it’s not even a surprise (Jordan Eberle being a good example).Heck fully half of the Lethbridge Hurricanes forwards corps. is listed officially as C., and that’s not generally considered to be elite talent in most circles.

    Good old Lethbridge, I miss my old stomping grounds! Do the Hurricanes still suck? Some things never change!

  41. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL": Was he traded for the “right” reasons?

    And then Team Foligno gives up on him – trades him for the ‘coachable’ Kessel?

    Definitely damaged goods!

  42. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    godot10: Hall played his first year with Horcoff (and Eberle). Behind Penner, Gagner, and Hemsky.Perfectly appropriate way to break in Hall.

    Nuge started his rookie yaar with Smyth (and Eberle).Nothing particularly wrong with that.And by the 2nd half of the season, it was Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, and Eberle with a Renney time cap,

    All three (Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, and Eberle) were rocking-n-rolling against the top lines in the league by Krueger’s year.And Paajarvi had been rehabilitated.

    Yakupov in his rookie year played controlled even strength minutes mostly with either Gagner and Hemsky,or alternatively with Horcoff.

    In each of those season there was a clear plan.

    The problems only returned when MacT and Eakins took over and they clearly had no plan for Yakupov in his 2nd or 3rd years.They screwed up this year for Yakupov by keeping Draisaitl.

    Agreed.

  43. godot10 says:

    G Money:
    There is WAY more risk in drafting D high than there is in drafting C high.Hanifin may have 1D potential, but the risk he doesn’t reach an elite NHL level is higher than with Strome, Marner, etc. who are his comparables.That has to factor into any teams drafting process.

    Not with D that played a full role in their “draft eligible” year at the World Juniors, of which there are only a few. Doughty, Bouwmeester, Ekblad, Fowler, Seth Jones,

  44. spoiler says:

    The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL": The Bruins keep searching for a first line right winger.

    The Bruins keep searching for a first line winger… they can afford.

    The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL": To me, the argument they are floating now that they had Bergeron and Krejci so had no room for Seguin doesn’t hold water.

    The original source you gave had Seguin floating that as the reason, not the Bruins.

    The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL": The argument that Seguin was “too finesse and didn’t go to the tough areas enough to score” and “lacked focus at times” is an argument that Oilers fans are very familiar with.

    I’m not surprised… the present issue Oilers are famous for not going to the crease, or for trying to pass the puck into the net. Both valid criticisms. Chia specifically says he doesn’t expect Seguin to be a crasher and banger.

    The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL": (whether the reasons were because they incorrectly assessed they had no room for him or incorrectly assessed him to not be big/strong/committed-to-going-to-the-tough-areas-enough, i.e., not a “Bruins-type” player like Lucic, or because they believed he couldn’t mature past his so-called “lack of focus” issues–and by that I’m talking about the on ice stuff Chiarelli talks explicitly about, as well as the off ice stuff he doesn’t deny– factored into his decision (off ice is considered for all players)).

    So you don’t actually know the reason why he was moved, but whatever the reason was, it was the wrong reason?

  45. Unicorns says:

    The Bruins traded Seguin for Eriksson because they buy into a team mythology or weren’t mature enough to handle Seguin’s immaturity. How did they help their team? Chiarelli lost his charm for me then. Especially with the Oilers style smear.

  46. book¡je says:

    Anyone read about the NHL’s grand plan to replace the Olympics with a new world cup. The plan is to introduce two under 23 teams – one of North Aerican Players and one of European Players along with the 6 best countries. They wanted to eliminate the weaker teams. I think they are idiots. Do they really think a Canada vs NAunder23 final will be as exciting as Can vs US or Can vs Russia?

    Why not go with top 6 nations and then 2 all-star teams of other nations (split by nations so that no fan has more than one team to support).

    It’s like the NHL is run by the Oilers.

  47. spoiler says:

    Unicorns: I would say far higher chance of not reaching potential than Eichel or McDavid, but not Strome or Marner.

    Exactly. Which is why he has been consistently ranked behind McDavid and Eichel and ahead of everybody else.

  48. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    spoiler,

    Did you watch the video? The reasons are discussed there.

    We can pretty much surround the reasons why the Bruins traded Seguin right there with the video. I do know the reasons why Seguin was traded; there were multiple reasons, which I listed in “whether it was because of a or b or c” fashion; I think they were wrong.

    So my question back to you is did the Bruins, in your opinion, trade Seguin for the right reasons?

  49. godot10 says:

    book¡je:
    Anyone read about the NHL’s grand plan to replace the Olympics with a new world cup.The plan is to introduce two under 23 teams – one of North Aerican Players and one of European Players along with the 6 best countries. They wanted to eliminate the weaker teams.I think they are idiots.Do they really think a Canada vs NAunder23 final will be as exciting as Can vs US or Can vs Russia?

    Why not go with top 6 nations and then 2 all-star teams of other nations (split by nations so that no fan has more than one team to support).

    It’s like the NHL is run by the Oilers.

    The NHL doesn’t have time for a proper qualification tournament for the “weaker” European nations. By 2020 they will, and will likely have a qualifciation round in 2019 for those teams.

    The point of the under 23 team is that almost no 23 and under players in Canada and the United States are good enough to make the main squad, and it means they can’t market McDavid, MacKinnon, Seth Jones, and Eichel. It may be a one time thing.

    Crosby, Toews, Getzlaf, Tavares, Bergeron….no way MacKinnon or McDavid crack that lineup. Heck, even Stamkos has to move to wing.

  50. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    I should probably add what I think would be the right reasons.

    To improve your team while complying with the cap.

    That’s it. They signed Seguin to a very team-friendly deal if you ask me. $5.75M for a 30 goal scoring 1RW isn’t too much money, in my opinion.

    Chiarelli and co wanted to re-sign Nathan Horton over keeping Seguin. When Horton signed elsewhere, he still decided to trade Seguin. (All in the video). Not one of the men in that room discussing Seguin stuck up for him and said they wanted him to stay.

    I again say that I hope the Oilers do not make similar decisions on their young players. You could see a discussion like this occurring with respect to some of the kids, no? I’m not saying it has. I am saying I hope it doesn’t.

    I think the Bruins regret that trade today, and most people questioned it at the time it occurred as well.

    If the Oilers, for example, trade Hall to improve their hockey club (I don’t know, say Hanzal and OEL are coming back–pipe dream, I know), fine. If they trade him because they think he is part of the problem with not winning, I think it will be for the wrong reasons.

    One voice in that Bruins video (player personnel head) says that “If Seguin even gave us half of Kane we would have won the Stanley Cup.” To blame a 21-yr old for the loss in the Finals is a bit much.

  51. spoiler says:

    The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL":
    spoiler,

    Did you watch the video? The reasons are discussed there.

    We can pretty much surround the reasons why the Bruins traded Seguin right there with the video. I do know the reasons why Seguin was traded; there were multiple reasons, which I listed in “whether it was because of a or b or c” fashion; I think they were wrong.

    So my question back to you is did the Bruins, in your opinion, trade Seguin for the right reasons?

    No idea. I don’t claim to know all the reasons for the trade or of the rumours one can speculate on, if true, which ranked higher in priority at the time. Nor am I privy to their dressing room, or to any inside information of what specifically went on with Seguin. But I do suspect the cap was probably one of the reasons. They’re still effed even without his contract on the books.

    By the way,” whether…or” statements don’t mean you intend all the subsequent clauses but one of those clauses, which was the way I read it. If you had ended with “or some or all of the above”, I would have read it differently.

  52. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    spoiler: No idea. I don’t claim to know all the reasons for the trade or of the rumours one can speculate on, if true, which ranked higher in priority at the time.Nor am I privy to their dressing room, or to any inside information of what specifically went on with Seguin.But I do suspect the cap was probably one of the reasons.They’re still effed even without his contract on the books.

    By the way,” whether…or” statements don’t mean you intend all the subsequent clauses but one of those clauses, which was the way I read it. If you had ended with “or some or all of the above”, I would have read it differently.

    I used “whether…or” because there were multiple different voices in the Bruins’ decision-making process and they cited different reasons. For example the scout Keith Gretzky, Cam Neely (President)- (he’s the one who says “off-ice issues”), Jim Benning (AGM, now of Vancouver of course)- (he says “babysitting”), Chiarelli, and I’m sorry I forgot the gentleman’s name who said Seguin has too many red flags.

    I think “whether…or” is correct because I was addressing multiple different voices and different reasons–no one person cited all those reasons. Your view that I should have used “some or all of the above” is equally valid because you were looking at the Bruins’ management team as a collective. I was looking at the individual reasons expressed.

    If you watch the video, yes, the cap discussion is what starts the conversation. This is why Andrew Ference is sacrificed and is now an Oiler. But they wanted to sign Nathan Horton over keeping Tyler Seguin. So although the cap is the initial issue, they wanted to keep the lesser player over Seguin. It’s hard to say the cap was the primary reason for the trade.

    I’m not saying the Bruins traded Seguin because he was partying too much. I never said anything of the kind. I said they misjudged his ability to mature as a player and human being. “Leopard can’t change his spots.” is a direct quote from that video as well. So I never claimed to be privy to their dressing room. However, the Bruins organization themselves allowed us to be privy to their discussions on trading Tyler Seguin. So why can’t we use that to say we “know” why they traded him?

    It’s about as close to “knowing” the reasons as it gets, is it not?

  53. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    spoiler: The original source you gave had Seguin floating that as the reason, not the Bruins.

    ““It’s not surprising. I don’t think there was ever an issue with his potential, but at the same time there’s a pretty good chance he’d be playing on the wing here with [David] Krejci and [Patrice] Bergeron as your top two,” said Claude Julien. “There’s a deal that was done, and we’ve moved on. Right now we’re in a playoff spot, and I think that is important.”

    “So a trade of Seguin, in and of itself, wasn’t outrageous given that he was never going to be a top line center for Claude Julien, and was never going to supplant David Krejci or Patrice Bergeron. But it should also be noted the Bruins haven’t won anything with Eriksson and Smith outside a fairly useless 2014 President’s Trophy that’s probably now a paperweight on Causeway Street.

    As dazzling as Seguin’s offensive numbers in Dallas have been, it’s difficult to argue he’s a better fit as top line center, in Boston’s system, than Krejci, or Bergeron.

    Krejci and Bergeron sacrifice offense to play hockey at both ends of the ice, and leap into the battle with a courage that’s required for good fortune in the playoffs. Seguin has two goals in his last 28 playoff appearances, and couldn’t make a dent in last year’s first round playoff series vs. the heavy, physical Ducks.”

    http://www.csnne.com/blog/bruins-talk/haggerty-revisiting-seguin-deal-reveals-lot-truths

    Not sure what the issue is here… or why we’re getting our panties in such a twist over a stupid trade. And, it certainly was that.

    These reasons, and any other we might imagine or hear of are terrible, horrible, no-good, very bad reasons.

  54. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Sorry for derailing the thread. I just meant to share a recent article, not start a debate on a tangent.

    Back to prospect talk! Aka what Oiler fans do best these days.

  55. spoiler says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”,

    In the whether or statement you didn’t indicate you were addressing a whole bunch of different voices. You indicated what you thought was factoring into Chia’s decision. At least that’s the way it read to me.

    You surely can’t think that an edited video is a complete summary of everything relevant?

    And I think you and I have a different feeling on what constitutes “know”.

    But let’s say some of the rumours were true… let’s say he was a disruption in the dressing room, that he wasn’t giving all of his effort that year, that he had been unprofessional in his partying, that the team lacked depth and was facing a cap crunch…

    It’s easy to say Chia miscalculated, because he’s making a bet on the unknowable future. In another universe or with another player, that might be the right bet. Did he make a bad trade? Impossible to know for sure, and even what we do know needs more time for a full assessment, but he traded away the best player in the deal. I think at the time he knew and was okay with that because of the salary relief, the depth and balance coming back and the good young prospects. He made a bet and so far it hasn’t worked, partly due to the health of Loui.

    My initial comment was based on the first article, which really gave us nothing on whether or not we could say that the Bruins made the trade for the wrong reasons. Seguin said it was for business–I have no reason to disagree with the player involved and certainly the Bruins have been facing cap issues. I am sure there is more — I think it is dangerous and simplistic to think that there are only ever one or two reasons, but that’s my point to the other side too. And that’s pretty much it.

  56. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    spoiler,

    I didn’t intend for the original article to be evidence the Bruins traded Seguin for the wrong reasons. That was my opinion, which you disagree with. I haven’t been able to convince you to take my view after numerous links and sources and general discourse. Instead we even got bogged down in semantics over “whether…or.”

    Also, if we want to have a philosophical debate about what constitutes knowledge that’s a whole new issue. If you want to go there, then yes I know nothing.

    Perhaps we’re better served agreeing to disagree on this one and moving on. I enjoyed the discussion.

  57. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    And yes, I’m sure that video has been edited and they probably left out the off-ice issues Neely mentioned.

  58. sliderule says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”,

    It wouldn’t surprise me that they traded him because they didn’t like his personality.

    Young kid who seemed a little too smarmy for the Bruins good old boys.

    It’s a tell when no one supported him.

  59. spoiler says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”: I didn’t intend for the original article to be evidence the Bruins traded Seguin for the wrong reasons. That was my opinion, which you disagree with. I haven’t been able to convince you to take my view after numerous links and sources and general discourse. Instead we even got bogged down in semantics over “whether…or.”

    No worries, bro.

    You listed the article, which stated a reason for the trade, from the traded guy, cited it and then in the next sentence, same paragraph, said you hope we don’t trade any of our kids for the wrong reasons too. That’s the only reason why I questioned your statement. Couldn’t see any reason in the article to think the same way.

    As for convincing me, I had already thought Chia miscalculated, but didn’t/don’t think the error was necessarily misguided. Could be, but I’d have to know a lot more intimate detail to know for sure. And I think the jury is still out on Seguin to some degree. But I’m sure that trade nags at Chia’s mind some nights… it’s just gotta lol.

  60. spoiler says:

    sliderule

    It wouldn’t surprise me that they traded him because they didn’t like his personality.

    Young kid who seemed a littletoo smarmy for the Bruins good old boys.

    It’s a tell when no one supported him.

    I was going to add at one point that I find something off-putting about Seguin. But his peers seem to like him fine. Well, till last night lol.

  61. frjohnk says:

    godot10: Not with D that played a full role in their “draft eligible” year at the World Juniors, of which there are only a few.Doughty, Bouwmeester, Ekblad, Fowler, Seth Jones,

    Brian Lee was drafted 9th overall in 05.
    Played in the WJC before he was drafted.
    Not a late birthdate
    6 foot 3
    Could skate really well
    http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=9218

    But he is one of a few exceptions.

    Most Big D that can skate well that are picked high turn out.
    Big D men that can not skate well that are picked high rarely turn out.

    At the moment for what I have seen from Hanifan I would not be scared to pick him as high pick.

  62. sliderule says:

    spoiler,

    I watched a video HF bds shot of skills at prospect game.Marners skating agility and speed is right there with McDavid..
    The only problem with Marner is 165 lbs.
    At 5-11 and 17 he is tall enough and may end up being over 6-0?
    Ricki says his mom is 5-10 and brother is 6-2.I have a grandson that from 17-18 grew fro 6-1 to 6-5 so lots can change at that age..
    When Kane was drafted he was listed at 5-10 and 170 lbs and there wasn’t as much concern expressed.
    With this draft being so strong the negatives of all players except McEichel seem to be amped up.

  63. spoiler says:

    sliderule,

    I have heard the same about Marner’s family, likely from the same source Ricki culled it.

    I have him ahead of Strome, despite the fact he looks like he will play wing at the NHL level. I think he has Strome beat on talent. Hanifin and Marner are pretty close, but all other things being equal, I have to nick the winger. If they had had Strome at W and Marner at C in the TPG, it sure would be a lot tougher to decide.

    I kind of want Arizona to draft Marner, and keep him at C, because I am curious to see the effect of bringing a line intact from Junior up to the pros.

  64. gogliano says:

    frjohnk: Brian Lee was drafted 9th overall in 05.
    Played in the WJC before he was drafted.
    Not a late birthdate
    6 foot 3
    Could skate really well
    http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=9218

    But he is one of a few exceptions.

    Most Big D that can skate well that are picked high turn out.
    Big D men that can not skate well that are picked high rarely turn out.

    At the moment for what I have seen from Hanifan I would not be scared to pick him as high pick.

    In fairness to Ottawa, Jack Skille and Gilbert Brule were off the board by then.

    I think Hanifin offers the best risk/reward of the 3 plausible candidates, particularly for a team with high end talent on the wing. If he turns out 90% right he is the kind of D who doesn’t get offloaded in trades.

  65. godot10 says:

    frjohnk: Brian Lee was drafted 9th overall in 05.
    Played in the WJC before he was drafted.
    Not a late birthdate
    6 foot 3
    Could skate really well
    http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=9218

    But he is one of a few exceptions.

    Most Big D that can skate well that are picked high turn out.
    Big D men that can not skate well that are picked high rarely turn out.

    At the moment for what I have seen from Hanifan I would not be scared to pick him as high pick.

    Brian Lee didn’t play a major role on that team. The 7th D doesn’t count.

    I said guys playing a major role…i.e. a top 4 role. Lee didn’t do that, not remotely.

    Ryan Ellis played also, but only as a power play specialist. Doesn’t count.

    Bouwmeester started out as the 7th D man, but was one of the critical guys by the end of the tournament.

    Draft eligilble D who play a major role on Canada or the US are few and far between. It is a 19-year old tournament, not a 17-year old tournament, and D who play a major role are not just run-of-the-mill junior age D.

  66. G Money says:

    godot10: Brian Lee didn’t play a major role on that team. The 7th D doesn’t count.
    I said guys playing a major role…i.e. a top 4 role. Lee didn’t do that, not remotely.
    Ryan Ellis played also, but only as a power play specialist. Doesn’t count.

    Nice rationalizations. Find a criteria with a nice small sample size, then draw a line where it fits your case.

    High D picks are riskier than F picks, for no other reason than playing D is harder than playing F, and the learning curve is steeper. So more time to fall off the curve.

    Higher likelihood that Marner and Strome are elite NHL players than Hanifin, and sooner, no matter how glowing the scouting reports.

    Any team drafting high is stupid not to take that into account.

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