WHAT SHOULD WE EXPECT FROM THIS WEEK?

Our long national nightmare is almost over as our beloved game is returned from the depths of boredom. We’re in a really exciting time now with the trade deadline in sight and callups on the way. Oilers fans are all too familiar with this time of year but there are good things on the way.

It was all over twitter today, Hall’s tweak and the worry, but things seem to be fine now. We talked about him on the weekend, and the gap before and after the injury is very stark:

        • Boxcars before injury: 11gp, 6-4-10 (.909)
        • Boxcars after injury: 30gp, 5-14-19 (.633)
        • Shooting Percentage before injury: 16.67 (6 goals on 36 shots)
        • Shooting Percentage after injury:  5.7 (5 goals on 87 shots)

      He did seem to have a little more torque just before the break, here’s hoping Chance returns and Edmonton can make a nice run here in the second half. That top line is going to need many nights of multiple points if this team has any chance to approach 25 wins this season.

THE SCHEDULE

        • Tuesday: Home to the Wild. Minnesota is 2-6-2 in their last 10 and Edmonton is 4-4-2 in the same time frame. Devan Dubnyk will play for Minnesota, Zach Parise has 19 goals and Edmonton’s scoring leaders have 12 (Nuge and Eberle).
        • Thursday: Home to the Sabres. If Edmonton wins this game I think we can safely say they’ll need a lottery win to secure McDavid. The Oilers can trade Petry and three more and not approach the pure horribleness of Buffalo’s roster. I can’t imagine how much damage MacT would have to inflict on this roster to get them below the Sabres.
        • Saturday: At Calgary. It would be very nice to win the game and have our kids outplay their youngsters. I haven’t really had expectations of an Oilers—Flames tilt since the night Sutter was new and Savard scored the only goal in a 1-0 win. That was 15 years ago.
        • Expected record: 1-1-1.

      khaira ferguson 1415

THE TRANSACTIONS

This could come at any time but trades (Petry, etc) and injury may mean recalls to Edmonton from Oklahoma City. It’s interesting to see the group of players who have scored well in the last five games before AS break:

        • Iiro Pakarinen 4-2-6
        • Bogdan Yakimov 3-1-4
        • Andrew Miller 2-2-4
        • Curtis Hamilton 1-2-3
        • Kellen Jones 1-2-3
        • Brad Hunt 1-2-3
        • Martin Marincin 0-3-3
        • Jujhar Khaira 1-1-2
        • David Musil 0-2-2

The recall of Anton Lander opened up an opportunity for Yakimov (and Khaira), I’m thinking a Pakarinen callup might help a winger like Josh Winquist (who is injured) or the Jones’ boys. As discussed this morning, it looks like the organization sees Brandon Davidson, Dillon Simpson and Jordan Oesterle as the likely recall options, but Hunt and Marincin have been posting crooked numbers in the last five games. It’s a nice problem to have, all these prospects.

Well, we knew it was coming, doesn’t make it fun. I’ll speak with Eric Rodgers about the move and this year’s Barons tomorrow on the Lowdown. This year’s Barons may be the most exciting in terms of future, guys like Pakarinen may be a revelation. You can expect a large increase in Buck Owens references, and we say goodbye to Joe Ely and that wonderful music from Oklahoma.

Makes sense, he’s just too risky with that contract. Richards was a terrific player but he is no longer that player. Dean Lombardi is (I think) the smartest GM in the league but he’d have to be Pollock to make this fly. Now watch, Richards will get claimed tomorrow. By Ed Snider!

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88 Responses to "WHAT SHOULD WE EXPECT FROM THIS WEEK?"

  1. regwald says:

    Or just break/bend the rules like Lou.

  2. fifthcartel says:

    Didn’t someone mention the name Patrik Hersley recently?

    http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=1288

    “Hersley hunted by the Edmonton Oilers”

    “Sports blade can reveal that the Edmonton Oilers scouted Hersley and there are discussions between the agent Christian Sjögren and Oilers.”

    http://www.aftonbladet.se/sportbladet/hockey/internationellt/khl/article20223172.ab

    Big right-handed shot too.

  3. Yeti says:

    A quick question on the Marincin debate from previous thread: any idea who has he been paired with most commonly in the AHL? Is it Gernat?

  4. Lowetide says:

    Thanks, both of you gents! Love this blog!

  5. Lowetide says:

    Yeti:
    A quick question on the Marincin debate from previous thread: any idea who has he been paired with most commonly in the AHL? Is it Gernat?

    Most often that I have seen, yes.

  6. Mr DeBakey says:

    fifthcartel: Didn’t someone mention the name Patrik Hersley recently?

    C’est moi.
    Hersley plays for Novosibirsk – 9 PP goals. Leads the team in shots. 2nd most TOI among the D.

    Siber also have a big LH defenseman who is an UFA after this season.
    Igor Ozhiganov, 22 years old, 216 pounds, leads the team in hits
    http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=77242

  7. godot10 says:

    //If Edmonton wins this game I think we can safely say they’ll need a lottery win to secure McDavid.//

    The 30th place team only has a 20% chance at McDavid. There really is not much advantage to finishing 30th if you want McDavid. 30th gets you Eichel, and a marginally better lottery chance at McDavid.

    If Edmonton wins the Buffalo game, we can safely say, that Buffalo is guarenteed Eichel, and the Oilers go from a 1 in 5 chance at McDavid, to a 1 in 7.5 chance at McDavid.

  8. Gret99zky says:

    I’m going to miss the picture of that spirited young lady in her Oklahoma shirt.

    You know the one. 😉

  9. Melman says:

    Here’s a thought: With the likelihood of the cap staying the same or dropping – does that increase the value of a UFA D such as Petry or Franson?

  10. VanOil says:

    fifthcartel:
    Didn’t someone mention the name Patrik Hersley recently?

    http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=1288

    “Hersley hunted by the Edmonton Oilers”

    “Sports blade can reveal that the Edmonton Oilers scouted Hersley and there are discussions between the agent Christian Sjögren and Oilers.”

    http://www.aftonbladet.se/sportbladet/hockey/internationellt/khl/article20223172.ab

    Big right-handed shot too.

    Patrik Hersley would be a great replacement for Schultz. As a replacement for Petry I would rather have the bird in hand. His back ground in the AHL means his transition back to the smaller ice should not be that bad. It is the great news that the Oilers are looking at him.

  11. Mr DeBakey says:

    VanOil: Patrik Hersley would be a great replacement for Schultz. As a replacement for Petry I would rather have the bird in hand.

    No one in their right mind would bring Hersley over thinking he’s a Petry replacement?
    Tell me they wouldn’t.
    3rd pairing, 2nd PP, less than 20 minutes a night, and regular HS until Christmas.

  12. VanOil says:

    Mr DeBakey: No one in their right mind would bring Hersley over thinking he’s a Petry replacement?
    Tell me they wouldn’t.
    3rd pairing, 2nd PP, less than 20 minutes a night, and regular HS until Christmas.

    A lot of assumptions on my part. 1 Petry is dealt before the deadline, 2 Schultz is resigned in the summer could lead to Hersley being Petry’s replacement on the Right side of the defense. Might be a better idea than the expensive Double Agent moving over.

    I agree a signed Petry and a flyer on Hersley as a 3d pairing option is a way better idea. Sadly this does not match the Oilers or MacT’s verbal or past.

  13. GCW_69 says:

    When your team has been out of the playoffs for nine years – NINE YEARS – and you have the opportunity to grab Mike Richards, you take the gamble.

    If it works out, one major problem with the current roster is solved. If it doesn’t work out, the buy out is about $2M per season, as I understand it. That’s manageable.

    Passing on Richards is a loser move by a loser organization.

  14. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    fifthcartel:
    Didn’t someone mention the name Patrik Hersley recently?

    http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=1288

    “Hersley hunted by the Edmonton Oilers”

    “Sports blade can reveal that the Edmonton Oilers scouted Hersley and there are discussions between the agent Christian Sjögren and Oilers.”

    http://www.aftonbladet.se/sportbladet/hockey/internationellt/khl/article20223172.ab

    Big right-handed shot too.

    The google on that article is magical!

    “And it could be ten crates fighting and tearing in two places.”

    has to be an Oiler slogan.

  15. Lowetide says:

    GCW_69:
    When your team has been out of the playoffs for nine years – NINE YEARS – and you have the opportunity to grab Mike Richards, you take the gamble.

    If it works out, one major problem with the current roster is solved. If it doesn’t work out, the buy out is about $2M per season, as I understand it. That’s manageable.

    Passing on Richards is a loser move by a loser organization.

    If they pick him up, we’ll live with it. It’s not a good move.

  16. spoiler says:

    Mr DeBakey: No one in their right mind would bring Hersley over thinking he’s a Petry replacement?
    Tell me they wouldn’t.
    3rd pairing, 2nd PP, less than 20 minutes a night, and regular HS until Christmas.

    He has 15 goals in 46 games on the 2nd PP unit? 4th highest scorer on the team, highest scoring defenseman, missed two games all year. Looks pretty good to me.

  17. blainer says:

    GCW_69:
    When your team has been out of the playoffs for nine years – NINE YEARS – and you have the opportunity to grab Mike Richards, you take the gamble.

    If it works out, one major problem with the current roster is solved. If it doesn’t work out, the buy out is about $2M per season, as I understand it. That’s manageable.

    Passing on Richards is a loser move by a loser organization.

    This season is done. We can always re visit MR in the off season if needed. Our best and most prudent route is to try and pry Sobotka out of St Louis. That should be a manageable trade without having to give up too much. If that doesn’t work look for other trade options. One HAS to believe MacT has learned he needs a center. I would be ok with MR as a last option during the off season if the Kings take back Ference.

  18. spoiler says:

    A Swedish rightie to play with our Swedish leftie?

    I don’t mind MacT looking under every rock and finding good deals, but he had better be able to play defense as well as Petry can. If that’s who he’s replacing. If it’s Schultz… he can’t possibly be any worse.

    A rightie with a boomer shot is likely intended for some PP time. Can we at least dream this means he’s replacing Schultz?

  19. spoiler says:

    If Mike Richards is coming in, that would mean Gordon is on his way out the door.

    Richards isn’t as fast, as strong, as healthy, as good at FOs or PKing, but he would probably bring a little more offense. All of his numbers have been trending downwards without abatement. Has a reputation of not being committed to fitness.

    No way is he worth it. He’s not better than Gordon and he’s far far more expensive.

    And some of the cap recapture penalty would fall upon the Oilers, further adding to the risk.

    His buyout, by the back of my napkin, is $3.83M over 10 years as it stands right now. Absolutely crippling contract.

    I’d want salary retained, a shorter contract dump back and a draft pick to take Richards off their hands. I’d want to get paid for doing that favour for a division rival.

  20. Mr DeBakey says:

    spoiler: He has 15 goals in 46 games on the 2nd PP unit? 4th highest scorer on the team, highest scoring defenseman, missed two games all year. Looks pretty good to me.

    “until Christmas”
    See how he’s doing, then conduct yourself accordingly.

    You must be careful with KHLers [in my opinion]
    Stéphane Da Costa has the 2nd best PPG in the KHL this year.
    Cheechoo & Linglet are both over a Point-Per-Game.

    Plus there is the huge jump in the number of games [and intensity too].

  21. steveb12344 says:

    spoiler:
    If Mike Richards is coming in, that would mean Gordon is on his way out the door.

    Richards isn’t as fast, as strong, as healthy, as good at FOs or PKing, but he would probably bring a little more offense.All of his numbers have been trending downwards without abatement.Has a reputation of not being committed to fitness.

    No way is he worth it.He’s not better than Gordon and he’s far far more expensive.

    And some of the cap recapture penalty would fall upon the Oilers, further adding to the risk.

    His buyout, by the back of my napkin, is $3.83M over 10 years as it stands right now.Absolutely crippling contract.

    I’d want salary retained, a shorter contract dump back and a draft pick to take Richards off their hands. I’d want to get paid for doing that favour for a division rival.

    AMEN to that!

    Picking up MR now would just be a desperation move that the Oilers would regret for a long, long time.

  22. spoiler says:

    Mr DeBakey: “until Christmas”
    See how he’s doing, then conduct yourself accordingly.

    You must be careful with KHLers [in my opinion]
    Stéphane Da Costa has the 2nd best PPG in the KHL this year.
    Cheechoo & Linglet are both over a Point-Per-Game.

    Plus there is the huge jump in the number of games [and intensity too].

    Well Da Costa is a pretty talented kid, played with my nephew, but I agree on caution with regards to KHL defensemen. Our last two experiences were bad and mediocre.

  23. Snowman says:

    No way the Oilers are taking Richards on. Surely they will have learned about boat anchor contracts these past two seasons (they’ve got 3 by my count). Even if half the salary is retained you still have a $3 million player on pace for 30 points and who is slow and small.

    Four things:
    1) Size and quickness are the order of the day. He has neither enough for MacT.
    2) MacT can find these players for $1M in the summer and we already have a faster (more productive) version in Roy.
    3) If I am correct (which is at best 50/50) the buyout is not a significant savings
    4) Lander is a better fit and Arcobello was more productive than Richards so far this season.

    Those are the four reasons I do not see Richards in an Oilers jersey. Of course its so painfully obvious that he should not be picked up that it will probably happen.

  24. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    spoiler:

    His buyout, by the back of my napkin, is $3.83M over 10 years as it stands right now.Absolutely crippling contract.

    Your napkin must be 2-ply then. It’s half that ($1.917M per over 10 years).

    That said, I’m not arguing against your POV. I spent the entire last thread arguing against picking him up.

  25. spoiler says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”: Your napkin must be 2-ply then. It’s half that ($1.917M per over 10 years).

    That said, I’m not arguing against your POV. I spent the entire last thread arguing against picking him up.

    I can easily believe my napkin is wrong, but it is two thirds of $5.75M, no? When buyout occurs older than 25?

  26. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    GCW_69,

    Picking up Richards for five more years at $5.75M per season when his production and +/- (yeah, yeah tar and feather me), and advanced stats have been going the wrong way for 3 years now is a loser move.

    If the Oilers want to get him, as others have said, it should only be with a significant sweetener from LA, a contract going back the other way, and LA retaining some salary. That could happen in the summer. Claiming him on waivers now would be asinine.

    Otherwise that is one contract the Oilers should have no part of. His concussion history is enough to scare me off him, let alone the buyout having 10 years left on it. You want to pay full dollar for a small, physical player’s 30-35 year old seasons? One with two shoulders operated on (Horc and Hemmer have never been the same since–yeah Hall and Nuge are okay but they were much younger), multiple concussions, etc.?

    No favours to Lombardi, either. Not unless the Oilers are getting compensated something very significant for taking on that risk.

  27. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    spoiler: I can easily believe my napkin is wrong, but it is two thirds of $5.75M, no?When buyout occurs older than 25?

    Posted this already for you in the last thread By your math, the buyout value is greater ($38.3M) than the remaining contract value ($28.75M) –this should have been an indication your napkin was wrong 🙂

    For players 26 or older, a contract buyout costs two-thirds of the remaining contract value.
    Contract buyouts are charged against a team’s salary cap as a percentage of the buyout value spread over twice the length of the remaining contract years.
    Richards, after this year has 5 years * 5.75M remaining.
    2/3 of 28.75M is 19.167M.
    5 years * 2 = 10 years.
    A buyout of Richards this summer would result in the team doing the buyout having a cap hit of $1.917M x 10 years.

  28. spoiler says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”: Posted this already for you in the last threadBy your math, the buyout value is greater ($38.3M)than the remaining contract value ($28.75M) –this should have been an indication your napkin was wrong

    For players 26 or older, a contract buyout costs two-thirds of the remaining contract value.
    Contract buyouts are charged against a team’s salary cap as a percentage of the buyout value spread over twice the length of the remaining contract years.
    Richards, after this year has 5 years * 5.75M remaining.
    2/3 of 28.75M is 19.167M.
    5 years * 2 = 10 years.
    A buyout of Richards this summer would result in the team doing the buyout having a cap hit of $1.917M x 10 years.

    Totally missed it in the last thread, but did catch the wayback on the recapture which was sweet.

    But you are dead right, double two thirds is definitely more than the original sum. Shoulda used a real napkin instead of a Kleenex.

  29. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    spoiler,

    I went off the assumption he was getting paid $5.75M each year remaining on his contract because that’s what one site I used had, but he seems to have a rather more convoluted contract in terms of actual pay left, where each year is different. They could be right. Regardless, it’s not more money to buy him out than the remaining value on his contract. It’s close to $2M per year x 10.

    I used this to assume $5.75M straight per year.
    http://www.spotrac.com/nhl/los-angeles-kings/mike-richards/

    Someone else has this:

    Buy-out $1,466,667/year over 10 years = $14,666,667 total
    Cap hit over 10 years total = $21,416,670

    Year by year buyout cap hits:
    2015-16: $1,216,667
    2016-17: $1,716,667
    2017-18: $2,716,667
    2018-19: $4,216,667
    2019-20: $4,216,667
    2020-21: $1,466,667
    2021-22: $1,466,667
    2022-23: $1,466,667
    2023-24: $1,466,667
    2024-25: $1,466,667

  30. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Clear as mud. Whatever it may be, I would think he clears. The Kings can recall him from Manchester for the playoffs, I think. And then trade him with salary retained this summer I presume. I bet a few teams would probably take him if the Kings did that and added some party favours.

  31. Gerta Rauss says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”,

    Yeah, the buyouts are based on salary remaining (not AAV) and it is convoluted

    Interesting that the last 2 years are $3M per, so in theory you could buy him out with 2 years remaining and my napkin says the cap penalty would be $1M x 4 years

    Not that I’m advocating for picking him up either, and said so in the last thread as well

  32. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Gerta Rauss,

    Ah, yeah. That’s different from the source I have, which showed what seems like the wrong annual salaries. If you have the actual, correct breakdowns (sniffle capgeek), it should be easy to work out. If it is 2 x $3M, then yes, your napkin would be right on that one.

    2/3 the value remaining ($6m x 2/3 = $4M) spread over twice the years (2 years x 2 = 4) = $4M/4 years.

    If you have the other numbers, we can do the rest.

  33. Gerta Rauss says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”,

    http://stats.nhlnumbers.com/teams/LAK?year=2015

    I’m assuming these numbers are correct, and yes, we all miss Capgeek

  34. Gerta Rauss says:

    And if the OIlers had front loaded Nikitin’s contract ie: $6M + $3m =$9M the buyout this summer would have been less painful.

    *I just had to get that off my chest..:)

  35. GCW_69 says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”:
    GCW_69,

    Picking up Richards for five more years at $5.75M per season when his production and +/- (yeah, yeah tar and feather me), and advanced stats have been going the wrong way for 3 years now is a loser move.

    If the Oilers want to get him, as others have said, it should only be with a significant sweetener from LA, a contract going back the other way, and LA retaining some salary. That could happen in the summer. Claiming him on waivers now would be asinine.

    Otherwise that is one contract the Oilers should have no part of. His concussion history is enough to scare me off him, let alone the buyout having 10 years left on it. You want to pay full dollar for a small, physical player’s 30-35 year old seasons? One with two shoulders operated on (Horc and Hemmer have never been the same since–yeah Hall and Nuge are okay but they were much younger), multiple concussions, etc.?

    No favours to Lombardi, either. Not unless the Oilers are getting compensated something very significant for taking on that risk.

    That assumes he will be available to the Oilers in the off season. In the off season, Buffalo could grab him on waivers or he could be bought out and have his choice where to go like Grabo did.

    Last season Richards scored 41 points in 82 games, despite playing fourth line minutes for part of the season on a deep LA team. Give him second line minutes and some scoring wingers and their is every possibility that he delivers in the high forty or low fifty point range, which is right where a second line centre should be. Note, 45 points projects to put you in the top 60 centres in the NHL this season, based on where the top 60 centres are right now. He was 4 freakin points off a second line centre last season.

    Remember, everyone passed on Grabovski, then he went to a better situation in Washington and promptly went back to ~50 points / 82 games and now is helping the NYI resurgence.

    Sure its a gamble, but how do you play it safe when your team is as bad as the Oilers?

  36. spoiler says:

    Here are the annuals, beginning with 2014-15:

    7.000 6.000 5.500 4.500 3.000 3.000

    From nhlnumbers.

  37. Kitchener says:

    “What should we expect from this week?”

    Hopefully not this: http://i.imgur.com/NuMC3ZK.gif

    … by which I mean picking up a Mike Richards contract that would be unstoppable for 5 years.

  38. GCW_69 says:

    spoiler:
    If Mike Richards is coming in, that would mean Gordon is on his way out the door.

    Richards isn’t as fast, as strong, as healthy, as good at FOs or PKing, but he would probably bring a little more offense.All of his numbers have been trending downwards without abatement.Has a reputation of not being committed to fitness.

    No way is he worth it.He’s not better than Gordon and he’s far far more expensive.

    And some of the cap recapture penalty would fall upon the Oilers, further adding to the risk.

    His buyout, by the back of my napkin, is $3.83M over 10 years as it stands right now.Absolutely crippling contract.

    I’d want salary retained, a shorter contract dump back and a draft pick to take Richards off their hands. I’d want to get paid for doing that favour for a division rival.

    Why would Gordon be on the way out?

    Hall/Pouliot – RNH – Eberle
    Hall/Pouliot – Richards – Purcell
    TBD – Lander – Yakupov
    Hendricks – Gordon – Klinkhammer

    or you trade Purcell. You don’t trade Gordon because you get Richards.

  39. GCW_69 says:

    Lowetide: If they pick him up, we’ll live with it. It’s not a good move.

    That’s what people said about Grabovski.

  40. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    GCW_69: That’s what people said about Grabovski.

    I seem to remember everyone here saying Grabovski would be a good pickup. His underlying possession stats were very good. He looked like a candidate to regress to the mean. We lamented not picking him up right away. The choice was made where it was Gagner over Grabovski by MacT, which even he admitted he may have messed up on.

  41. spoiler says:

    GCW_69: Why would Gordon be on the way out?

    Hall/Pouliot – RNH – Eberle
    Hall/Pouliot – Richards – Purcell
    TBD – Lander – Yakupov
    Hendricks – Gordon – Klinkhammer

    or you trade Purcell.You don’t trade Gordon because you get Richards.

    Cap limit, contract limit, and spending $8.75M on the bottom 6 centers. Richards won’t be a 2C IMO. The Oilers don’t have to turn around and get picks for Gordon, but I imagine that’s what they’ll do with that redundancy.

  42. Bruce McCurdy says:

    fifthcartel:
    Didn’t someone mention the name Patrik Hersley recently?

    http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=1288

    “Hersley hunted by the Edmonton Oilers”

    “Sports blade can reveal that the Edmonton Oilers scouted Hersley and there are discussions between the agent Christian Sjögren and Oilers.”

    http://www.aftonbladet.se/sportbladet/hockey/internationellt/khl/article20223172.ab

    Big right-handed shot too.

    Gotta love a d-man with 24 goals & 11 assists last season.

  43. supernova says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    And if the OIlers had front loaded Nikitin’s contract ie: $6M + $3m =$9M the buyout this summer would have been less painful.

    *I just had to get that off my chest..:)

    Gerta Rauss,

    If they front loaded he might have signed for less.

    If we are dreaming

  44. supernova says:

    supernova: Bruce McCurdy,

    That’s insane.

    He must have a cannon.

    If euro scout Matti Vermanen is key on him, it works for me.

    Seems to have a good grasp on euro pros

  45. Younger Oil says:

    Only way I’d maybe take Richards would be if he was packaged to us with a pick or a prospect, with $1.9M retained by Los Angeles for the remainder of his contract, i.e. the Kings reward us with a good pick or prospect for saving them from 5 further years of a $1.9M cap hit that would be incurred by buying him out. We’d then be stuck with Richards for the rest of his contract with a $3.85M cap hit, and pray that he can turn his career around somewhat.

    However, I doubt Lombardi would go for that, and even if he did, I don’t even know if I would want that.

  46. Bruce McCurdy says:

    supernova:

    Virmanen’s the guy that spotted Pakarinen.

  47. Lowetide says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Gotta love a d-man with 24 goals & 11 assists last season.

    This is why hockey needs a Mexican League.

  48. flyfish1168 says:

    GCW_69: That assumes he will be available to the Oilers in the off season.In the off season, Buffalo could grab him on waivers or he could be bought out and have his choice where to go like Grabo did.

    Last season Richards scored 41 points in 82 games, despite playing fourth line minutes for part of the season on a deep LA team. Give him second line minutes and some scoring wingers and their is every possibility that he delivers in the high forty or low fifty point range, which is right where a second line centre should be. Note, 45 points projects to put you in the top 60 centres in the NHL this season, based on where the top 60 centres are right now.He was 4 freakin points off a second line centre last season.

    Remember, everyone passed on Grabovski, then he went to a better situation in Washington and promptly went back to ~50 points / 82 games and now is helping the NYI resurgence.

    Sure its a gamble, but how do you play it safe when your team is as bad as the Oilers?

    I would wait to see if the Kings buy him out this summer. If the do then I would approach MR and offer him 1 million for one year, just like what the Hawks did with Brad Richards. But I’m sure he will find a better situation than ours.JMHO

  49. GCW_69 says:

    flyfish1168: I would wait to see if the Kings buy him out this summer. If the do then I would approach MR and offer him 1 million for one year, just like what the Hawks did with Brad Richards. But I’m sure he will find a better situation than ours.JMHO

    If Richards get bought out, he isn’t coming here. The only way Richards comes here is via waivers or trade, if he doesn’t have a no trade clause. That’s it.

  50. Lowetide says:

    GCW_69: That’s what people said about Grabovski.

    We loved Grabovski here, can’t speak for others.

  51. flyfish1168 says:

    GCW_69: If Richards get bought out, he isn’t coming here.The only way Richards comes here is via waivers or trade, if he doesn’t have a no trade clause.That’s it.

    I agree no way would he come here. But i’m in the camp of I don’t want him at his price. He as a bad CAP contract and that would be bad management

  52. GCW_69 says:

    spoiler: Cap limit, contract limit, and spending $8.75M on the bottom 6 centers.Richards won’t be a 2C IMO.The Oilers don’t have to turn around and get picks for Gordon, but I imagine that’s what they’ll do with that redundancy.

    We don’t know if Richards is done, or this is another situation where the coach and the player don;t click, like Carylie and Grabovskii. What we do know is this is the first season his offence is below the second line centre range. We also know his most common linemate is Dwight King – he off the 11 points per season career average. We do know he is a positive possession player.

    If you go:

    RNH – Richards – Gordon – Lander down the middle next season you probably have four NHL centres and you can start Leon on the wing. If cap hit is a worry, trade Purcell. The difference between Richards cap hit and Purcell’s cap hit is 1.8% of a $70M cap.

    Trade Purcell. Keep Richards and Gordon.

  53. LostBoy says:

    godot10:
    //If Edmonton wins this game I think we can safely say they’ll need a lottery win to secure McDavid.//

    The 30th place team only has a 20% chance at McDavid.There really is not much advantage to finishing 30th if you want McDavid. 30th gets you Eichel, and a marginally better lottery chance at McDavid.

    If Edmonton wins the Buffalo game, we can safely say, that Buffalo is guarenteed Eichel, and the Oilers go from a 1 in 5 chance at McDavid, to a 1 in 7.5chance at McDavid.

    This.

    Our odds for various things based on the positions we are most likely to land in, on the assumption McDavid and Eichel go 1-2:

    30th
    20% McDavid
    80% Eichel

    29th
    13% McDavid
    20% Eichel
    67% 3rd overall

    28th
    11.5% McDavid
    0% Eichel
    33% 3rd overall
    55.5% 4th overall

    27th
    9.5% McDavid
    0% Eichel
    44.5% 4th overall
    46% 5th overall

    26th
    8.5% McDavid
    0% Eichel
    54% 5th overall
    37.5% 6th overall

    What I take from this:

    1) We’re not beating out Buffalo for last anyway, but

    2) 29th isn’t chopped liver if you want a “generational talent” – still gives you a 1 in 3 shot.

    3) After that, tanking is virtually irrelevant. The chance of McDavid in the spots we’re likely to land is only slightly different, and at this still-early point no real consensus has emerged in spots 3-5 unless you really believe someone is going to take Hanifin at 3 (could happen!).

    For me, I really struggle to think we’re going to finish either 29th or 30th. I just don’t see staying behind Arizona at minimum.

    So I’m happy to finish the season with as many wins as possible and start the process of turning north. I’m happy to just let it go and cheer for the Oilers to win games. Doesn’t really make much difference to our McDavid odds, still going to get yet another blue chip pick (unless they muck it up by picking Crouse or something). I like watching the Todd Nelson version of this team win. It’s time to change for the better.

  54. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    spoiler,

    Gerta Rauss,

    Thanks.
    Let’s use a summer 2015 buyout for an illustration.

    (Parentheses = 2/3 of Salary)
    2015-2016: 6.000 / 5 750 (4 000)
    2016-2017: 5.500 / 5 750 (3 667)
    2017-2018: 4.500 / 5 750 (3 000)
    2018-2019: 3 000 / 5 750 (2 000)
    2019-2020: 3.000 / 5 750 (2 000)

    Total 22 000 / 28 750 (14 667)
    # of years remaining = 5. Multiplied by 2 = 10.
    Salary owed to Richards = $1.4667M x 10 years

    Buy-out “savings”
    2015-2016: 6 000 -1 467 = 4 533
    2016-2017: 5 500 – 1 467 = 4 033
    2017-2018: 4 500 – 1 467 = 3 033
    2018-2019: 3 000 – 1 467 = 1 533
    2019-2020: 3 000 – 1 467 = 1 533
    2021-2022: 1 467 – 1 467 = 0
    2022-2023: 1 467 – 1 467 = 0
    2023-2024: 1 467 – 1 467 = 0
    2024-2025: 1 467 – 1 467 = 0
    2025-2026: 1 467 – 1 467 = 0

    Cap hit to team = AAV – Buy out “savings”
    2015-2016: 5 750 – 4 533 = 1 217
    2016-2017: 5 750 – 4 033 = 1 717
    2017-2018: 5 750 – 3 033 = 2 717
    2018-2019: 5 750 – 1 533 = 4 217
    2019-2020: 5 750 – 1 533 = 4 217
    2021-2022: 1 467
    2022-2023: 1 467
    2023-2024: 1 467
    2024-2025: 1 467
    2025-2026: 1 467

    (Total cap hit to team is 21 420 over 10 years in the above breakdown).

    Page 270 gives the illustrations for calculations (the show your work portion of this!)

    http://cdn.agilitycms.com/nhlpacom/PDF/NHL_NHLPA_2013_CBA.pdf

    That was fun!
    Still miss Capgeek though.

  55. GCW_69 says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”: I seem to remember everyone here saying Grabovski would be a good pickup. His underlying possession stats were very good. He looked like a candidate to regress to the mean. We lamented not picking him up right away. The choice was made where it was Gagner over Grabovski by MacT, which even he admitted he may have messed up on.

    Discussions were mixed. Some said grab him, others questioned his character and his contract.

  56. flyfish1168 says:

    GCW_69,

    I remember it being a good pickup and maybe someone that can help Yak.

  57. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    Lowetide,

    Maybe a link to this site should be at the bottom of every blog, until the draft?

    http://nhllotterysimulator.com/#/

  58. flyfish1168 says:

    Auston Matthews ’16,

    ran the simulator 10x and cane won it 3x, beleafs 2x, panthers 1x, jersey 2x , sabres 1x, Oilers 1x

  59. smellyglove says:

    Does lottery winner only advance to a maximum of 5 spots?

  60. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    GCW_69,

    http://lowetide.ca/2013/07/04/loud-noises-4-stand-back/
    http://lowetide.ca/2013/07/04/taylor-hall-hey-youre-an-all-star/comment-page-1/#comments

    There’s a search function here. I’ve gone and done the work for you, however. This site was almost universally in favour of picking up Grabovski, unlike Richards this time.

    So, I’d say the onus is on you now to show us otherwise.

  61. LostBoy says:

    smellyglove:
    Does lottery winner only advance to a maximum of 5 spots?

    No, the winner gets 1st overall regardless of standings position. It’s been like that since I think 2013.

  62. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    flyfish1168:
    Auston Matthews ’16,

    ran the simulator 10x and cane won it 3x, beleafs 2x, panthers 1x, jersey 2x , sabres 1x, Oilers 1x

    I ran it four times: Buf, Buf, Oil, Sens.

  63. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”:
    smellyglove,

    Nope, winner wins.

    That seems wrong. Can’t put my finger on it though.

  64. Kmart99 says:

    Here’s what I’m thinking….

    Oilers finish 30th, but PITT collapses and falls to 17th, missing the playoffs. They win the lottery with a 1% shot, forcing the oilers to pick McDavid AND Eichel.

    Boom. We are saved.

  65. smellyglove says:

    Kmart99,

    I would love it for someone who is a statistical genius to calculate the probability of that using sportsclubstats. 1 in 140?

  66. smellyglove says:

    Please god, do not let Toronto win.

  67. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    smellyglove:
    Please god, do not let Toronto win.

    This – a thousand times, THIS!

  68. mumbai max says:

    I can adjust to any Oil outcome. The Leafs winning the lottery would be too much to bear!

  69. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Auston Matthews ’16: That seems wrong. Can’t put my finger on it though.

    Winner of the lottery wins McDavid. What’s wrong with it? It’s less certain the biggest loser wins now, unlike prior years.

  70. Hammers says:

    Hard to believe anyone wanting Richards then talks about his buy out either you want him or you don’t . As for Hersley glad to see McT still thinks about opportunities that are out there . Wonder when Nelson says McT can I have ” player X ” from Oklahoma and the reason I ask is looking at Nelsons record in the AHL he seems to be a coach who wants to use his full lineup and will sit a player and use a rotation . Don’t think Aulie has got in at all yet and Gazdic just for 1 .

  71. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Posted this on Hersley, with thanks (included) to Fifth Cartel & Mr. Debakey for the heads-up.

  72. SwedishPoster says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Nice write up. Google translate seems to have done a decent job translating the article, one have to remember the magazine the article is from is a tabloid so they tend to jump very quickly on fairly weak rumours but considering Hersleys comments being very matter of factly I think there’s at least some truth. Hersley is an interesting guy, I might have mentioned him before. He had an ok junior career but never took off at the pro level, the team he played for Malmö was a bit of a mess, so despite a pretty bad season in Sweden he went to the AHL for two years and failed, came back and played pretty well despite not getting prime toi for two seasons with Malmö in Allsvenskan(2nd tier). Went to Modo in the SHL and got off on the completely wrong foot with Ulf Samuelsson, who is a joke of a coach btw and went to Leksand where he started to figure things out.
    He had a break out year last season but there were still question marks around footspeed and overall game, he lived off that great shot and offensive prowess combined with decent play in the own zone, but this year he’s taken a huge step, looked fantastic with the swedish NT this fall. Even looked like he got quicker if that’s possible at his age, might be his decisionmaking that’s got some speed up.
    His shot is still glorious, won the KHL hardest shot at their skill competition and his accuracy is great.

    There are some questions about how well he does at a higher pace and I wouldn’t write him into any top 4 action just now but he is a very nice bet to take because if he can hold his own defensively and doesn’t get killed at the higher pace of the NHL his shot from the blue is in the Shea Weber realm and would instantly give us an elite PP weapon.

  73. frjohnk says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Posted this on Hersley, with thanks (included) to Fifth Cartel & Mr. Debakey for the heads-up.

    Thanks Bruce. Nice article. Could be a late bloomer. But d men with slow feet do not usually translate their game well to the NHL. Will be interesting to see if its much of a problem.

  74. Pouzar says:

    Kmart99:
    Here’s what I’m thinking….

    Oilers finish 30th, but PITT collapses and falls to 17th, missing the playoffs. They win the lottery with a 1% shot, forcing the oilers to pick McDavid AND Eichel.

    Boom.We are saved.

    That’s what I am banking on!

  75. russ99 says:

    Ugh, how many more times are we going to play Dubnyk this year?

    Still wouldn’t want him back, but it seems obvious that he has something to prove against us.

    I feel bad for the Barons fans in OKC, but they just couldn’t pull in enough gate to make that viable.

    Maybe next time, hope they get another shot at minor league hockey.

  76. slopitch says:

    Well Crosby/Malkin are both out. Possible they lose some ground. Dont see them tanking.

  77. Henry says:

    mumbai max:
    I can adjust to any Oil outcome. The Leafs winning the lottery would be too much to bear!

    You would get to see Dreger cry on TV.

  78. russ99 says:

    BTW: any more word on other teams joining us in a California division of the AHL?

    So far looks like it’s just us in Bakersfield and the Sharks moving from Worchester to San Jose

    Edit: Found this, interesting. This could be more widespread that I expected:
    http://prohockeytalk.nbcsports.com/2014/08/24/report-ahl-migration-west-could-begin-in-2015-16/

  79. Hockey News: Zac Rinaldo Suspension; Injuries for Everybody says:

    […] What’s ahead in Edmonton? Hopefully not a Taylor Hall injury. [Lowetide] […]

  80. Chris says:

    Why would anyone in their right mind want Mike Richards as he plays today at his current contract? If you are potentially having trouble making the cap floor and you can get a draft pick to take him perhaps it makes sense. However, his contract at this point is worse than Luongo’s as with Luongo there was at least some assurance you were going to get several more competitive years out of him.

    Richards has by the numbers decreasing production, his advanced stats are no hell and by eye he’ s lost a step. He may be thirty but he looks like the odometer is at about 350,000 km. All the indications are that he’s done. If you pick him up on a one or two million dollar contract after a buy out to see if he can turn things around I get the gamble. But on a six million dollar contract for another five years that would cripple your salary cap when by any objective or subjective measure he hasn’t been any good since 2011? Are you crazy?

  81. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Chris,

    Morning, Chris.

    I see only one person pushing to claim Richards here. The majority here have expressed their opposition to the idea.

  82. Ca$h-Money! says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”,

    Oilersnation seems to be about 30% in favour of picking the guy up no questions asked.

  83. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Ca$h-Money!,

    Oh. Well, I only venture there for articles written by Jon Willis or LT, more out of support for them. That place scares me.

  84. Bruce McCurdy says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    Nice write up. Google translate seems to have done a decent job translating the article, one have to remember the magazine the article is from is a tabloid so they tend to jump very quickly on fairly weak rumours but considering Hersleys comments being very matter of factly I think there’s at least some truth. Hersley is an interesting guy, I might have mentioned him before. He had an ok junior career but never took off at the pro level, the team he played for Malmö was a bit of a mess, so despite a pretty bad season in Sweden he went to the AHL for two years and failed, came back and played pretty well despite not getting prime toi for two seasons with Malmö in Allsvenskan(2nd tier). Went to Modo in the SHL and got off on the completely wrong foot with Ulf Samuelsson, who is a joke of a coach btw and went to Leksand where he started to figure things out.
    He had a break out year last season but there were still question marks around footspeed and overall game, he lived off that great shot and offensive prowess combined with decent play in the own zone, but this year he’s taken a huge step, looked fantastic with the swedish NT this fall. Even looked like he got quicker if that’s possible at his age, might be his decisionmaking that’s got some speed up.
    His shot is still glorious, won the KHL hardest shot at their skill competition and his accuracy is great.

    There are some questions about how well he does at a higher pace and I wouldn’t write him into any top 4 action just now but he is a very nice bet to take because if he can hold his own defensively and doesn’t get killed at the higher pace of the NHL his shot from the blue is in the Shea Weber realm and would instantly give us an elite PP weapon.

    Thanks much. I’ve cited Sportsbladet before & it turned out OK; now that you mention it I recall being warned (by dohfos I believe) that it was a tabloid, a daily magazine attached to a paper so needs filler. But as you say those quotes look solid enough.

    Thanks for the tidbit about the hardest shot competition, seems to fit the profile. I made a late add to my post to mention it.

    What do you think of my Belov comp, big slow guy with a howitzer who’s stayed under the (North American) radar deep into his 20s. So some similarities at least.

  85. SwedishPoster says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    They’re somewhat similar in career path though I think Belov had a more steady curve. Stylewise Hersley is much more of an offensive guy while Belov is more physical. Hersleys shot is much better, while having good power Belovs accuracy is not even close. Belov is more well rounded but Hersley has more elite skills imo.

  86. jp says:

    smellyglove:
    Kmart99,

    I would love it for someone who is a statistical genius to calculate the probability of that using sportsclubstats. 1 in 140?

    I am not that statistical genius, but the chances are much less than 1 in 140. If Pitts did tank and finish 17th, that pick still only has a 1 in 100 chance of winning the lottery. Add in the likelihood of that tank occurring, and the Oilers actually finishing last and it’s WAY less than 1 in 140 (I’m thinking worse than 1 in 1000). Lovely idea though!

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