WILD AT OILERS G48, 2014-15

The boys are back in town and that means (lately) a chance to win the game, possession be damned. Last time our heroes saw blade cut ice they were 5-4 winners despite losing the Corsi 5×5 (41%) and Corsi all (48%) battle. In that 5-4-2 run the team is 47.7% Corsi all, which compares to 50.3% during the Dallas Eakins coaching period this season. I think, at the end of the day, the story of this season is going to be that Dallas Eakins figured out the possession but the blue had no calm feet and the goaltending was just a rumor. The season was flushed almost before it began, behind the net with a Calgary Flames forward forcing a quick, bad decision.

And now, in another of life’s cruel jokes, the Corsi are no long barking but the wins come along as regular as the No. 9 bus. The entire season has been a disconnect, northing rhymes. We know how the new ‘Corsi 40s’ play out but luck owes the Oilers big time, so let’s hope we get another week of W’s.

  • Joanne Ireland: Taylor Hall was struck by a puck during Monday’s session and left the ice, favouring his left leg. He returned for a short spell then left the ice again. Nelson didn’t expect it was anything that would keep Hall out of the lineup for the game against the Wild. Source

This is important because it shows management is still interested in giving the hometown crowd a show. At some point they’ll trade Petry and then all bets are off—you cannot argue trading Petry is going to help you win games this season—but for now it’s full steam ahead. I hope they win tonight.

MIKE RICHARDS OVER THE YEARS

PLAYER 5X5/60 CORSI % ZS (C’s) QUAL COMP
2010-11 2.06 49.3 Best (horrible) Toughest
2011-12 1.27 48.4 3rd best 3rd toughest
2012-13 1.51 53.7 3rd toughest 3rd toughest
2013-14 1.32 54.6 Best 3rd toughest
2014-15 1.27 52.4 2nd toughest 4th toughest

Richards isn’t the worst center in the league but he’s eroding quickly and that contract is poison. If he wasn’t Mike Richards, if this was Flark Larkobello, would we be talking about him at all? His 5×5/60 hasn’t been close to helpful in coming on five years, his Corsi is solid three years running but he’s not playing tough minutes and his zone starts haven’t been an issue for offense since Philadelphia. No sale. Which means the Oilers will trade for him on the Jamieson show.

lehner

I’ve heard Robin  Lehner to Edmonton a few times now. Probably nothing. We haven’t talked much about it but I’d like to see the Oilers go with a Lehner as opposed to a Niemi. MacT took a lot of heat about the goaling but for me it was a sound bet that worked out. He should have the courage of his convictions and go get Lehner unless it costs Hall. Senators have Curtis Lazar too, I wonder how much Murray would have to give in order to get management’s attention? I’d still keep Hall.

PROBABLY JUST HERSLEY

hersley

As reported by Fifth Cartel (and Mr. DeBakey) the Oilers appear to be interested in defender Patrik Hersley. He’s in the KHL and his size (6.03, 209) and age (28) make this right hander a player of interest. Apparently has a bomb for a shot, which may explain the following stats:

  • 46gp, 15-14-29. 24pims +5
  • Drafted No. 139 overall in 2005 by the Los Angeles Kings.
  • 5 EV goals, 9 PP goals and one on the PK.
  • 152 shots, 9.9%
  • 19:39 TOI per game
  • 41 hits, 33 shots blocked

It’s impossible to know if he’s any good at all, he could be slow or have a hunch back or maybe he’s the inspiration for The Fugitive. He does appear to be an interesting player, and the Oilers are so low on RH’s (Petry, Fayne, Schultz). My attitude about these Euro signings, from Belov to Pakarinen, is giddyup. They are mature players and if one or two come through well that’s fine. Edmonton’s Finnish scout Matti Virmanen has been bringing in some interesting things. Maybe this fellow is one.

  • Swedish Poster: Hersley is an interesting guy, I might have mentioned him before. He had an ok junior career but never took off at the pro level, the team he played for Malmö was a bit of a mess, so despite a pretty bad season in Sweden he went to the AHL for two years and failed, came back and played pretty well despite not getting prime toi for two seasons with Malmö in Allsvenskan(2nd tier). Went to Modo in the SHL and got off on the completely wrong foot with Ulf Samuelsson, who is a joke of a coach btw and went to Leksand where he started to figure things out.\
  • He had a break out year last season but there were still question marks around footspeed and overall game, he lived off that great shot and offensive prowess combined with decent play in the own zone, but this year he’s taken a huge step, looked fantastic with the swedish NT this fall. Even looked like he got quicker if that’s possible at his age, might be his decisionmaking that’s got some speed up.
    His shot is still glorious, won the KHL hardest shot at their skill competition and his accuracy is great.
  • There are some questions about how well he does at a higher pace and I wouldn’t write him into any top 4 action just now but he is a very nice bet to take because if he can hold his own defensively and doesn’t get killed at the higher pace of the NHL his shot from the blue is in the Shea Weber realm and would instantly give us an elite PP weapon.

balance11

KATZ AND FIRE

David Shoalts from the Globe and Mail has a must read article up today, showing the Katz empire’s relationship and handling of a loan to Sherry Bassin, elderly owner of the Erie Otters. The timeline makes clear that Mr. Katz was intent on using Hamilton as a possible hammer in negotiations (kind of like the Seattle trip, but with money) if it came to that. Shoalts uncovers several things that put the Katz group in a bad light.

  • Former Hamilton Mayor Bob Bratina: “My sense was [Hamilton] was going to be used against the City of Edmonton as leverage for their deal,” he said in an interview. “That’s my opinion.” Source

This blog is mostly concerned with the on-ice product but there’s little doubt that the actions of the Katz group in all things shows a heavy hand and willingness to bully. At some point all of these moments may conspire to cause havoc to Oilers’ ownership, but a trip around North America suggests sports franchises have a very strong position in any community and are very willing to push in order to get their way. I suspect some of you reading that G&M article will be horrified by the behavior mentioned, others may see it as business as usual.

Shoalts story isn’t a new one, it’s been around for a little while. He did an excellent job in setting the timeline and delivering some nuance (like the quote above from Hamilton’s former mayor and some revealing emails). For me, it points out once again just how little we know and how disconnected we are to this ownership. Is Daryl Katz a bully? Of course he is. That isn’t news or especially noteworthy. For Oilers fans, there are two questions:

  • Why can’t he run a successful team on the ice?
  • Will these business tactics eventually cost the organization in some real way?

My increasing sense is that the answer is he doesn’t care and probably. No big deal this time, I guess, it isn’t like Connor McDavid plays for the Erie Otters and I’m sure his Dad has no connection to Sherry Bassin.

ross graduate

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

NHL is back! God I missed it. TSN1260, 10 this morning:

  • Jonathan Willis, Cult of Hockey and Oilers Nation. What should we expect from the rest of this season?
  • Eric Rodgers, Tend the Farm. We’re counting down to the end of the Barons. Bittersweet? Hell yeah. We’ll talk to Eric.
  • Travis Yost, TSN. We’ll talk about eastern seaboard storms, predicting the weather, the Oilers and the Senators.
  • Eric Hohl, Arctic Ice Hockey. Jets Jets Jets! Plus NHL equivalencies for 2015 eligibles.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide_ on twitter. See you on the radio!

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289 Responses to "WILD AT OILERS G48, 2014-15"

« Older Comments
  1. godot10 says:

    The other thing is that there were no confirming indicators to the small Corsi pop.

    An isolated “positive” indicator is likely a false positive, when almost every other indicator is flashing red.

  2. Lowetide says:

    Pouzar:
    Interesting

    Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger3m3 minutes ago View translation
    Penguins trade Marcel Goc to St Louis for Max Lapierre.

    I actually like that trade for both teams.

  3. Tire Fire says:

    godot10:
    The other thing is that there were no confirming indicators to the small Corsi pop.

    An isolated “positive” indicator is likely a false positive, when almost every other indicator is flashing red.

    Yep, dead on. I tried telling this to that jerk-bag cop that pulled me over for speeding. His radar gun was the only indicator that I was speeding! I didn’t get in any accidents, and nobody else on the road or in my car thought I was going too fast! He said something about trusting a verified measuring system or some sh*t…

  4. geowal says:

    Lowetide:
    That was such a sad moment.

    Amazing composure by those kids

  5. Woodguy says:

    godot10: Tippett has a track record.

    Mike Smith has a track record of going loopy for seasons at a time.

    The conclusions about shot metrics correlating with results were based on analyzing a data set wherethe vast majority of the data is derived for PDO’s within one standard deviation of normal or 1ish.

    If one were to restrict that data set on shot metrics for outlier bad PDO’s > 2 standard deviations away from normal, the same conclusions might not result. Eakins 110 games have an extreme outlier PDO.

    Any extrapolation to extreme outlier PDO’s might not be valid.

    NYI’s PDO:

    13/14 .9837
    12/13 .9895
    11/12 .9783

    This year its .9946

    All with the same coach.

    Pretty sure .990 or lower is over 2 SD.

  6. Pouzar says:

    aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaannnnnnnnnnnnnndddddddddddd another shot by an EDM d-man misses the net.

  7. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    Oh no! Cooke down? Mercy!

  8. Pouzar says:

    NN….you can’t be frickin serious with that pass.

  9. Tire Fire says:

    Couldn’t happen to a better guy.

  10. Pouzar says:

    Auston Matthews ’16:
    Oh no! Cooke down? Mercy!

    Cue the dirty retaliation by Cooke.

  11. frjohnk says:

    Double agent Niki with a nice pass in the neutral zone to the wrong team. Right on the tape.

    At least make it look like you made a mistake. That was too obvious.

  12. Tire Fire says:

    Two beeeaauuutttiiiifffffullll plays in a row by NN to start that PK

  13. Lowetide says:

    Fasth is playing well, we’ll fetch a pig or cow for him at market.

  14. Lowetide says:

    Leon with a nice assist, now 8gp, 4-8-12 early in tonight’s game.

  15. Gerta Rauss says:

    Lowetide:
    Fasth is playing well, we’ll fetch a pig or cow for him at market.

    Is he worth another contract or are you certain they’ll move him along and look for another goalie in the summer..?

    I just wonder if we’re looking at guys like Lehner, are they really THAT much better than Fasth..?

    All these tweener goalies seem the same to me…maybe they’ll get hot, maybe they won’t….

  16. godot10 says:

    Lowetide:
    Fasth is playing well, we’ll fetch a pig or cow for him at market.

    Why not just sign him to a new contract, if he plays well for the rest of the year? Say 2 years @ $3 million per season.

  17. RexLibris says:

    Late in the 2nd, score 1-1 Buffalo Calgary.

    WoI has the CF, score adjusted, at 24.9 CGY to 21.5 BUF.

    I’ll be really curious to see how two of the worst possession teams in the league do in this area over the game.

  18. frjohnk says:

    Lowetide:
    Fasth is playing well, we’ll fetch a pig or cow for him at market.

    no more coke machines?

  19. dangilitis says:

    Fuck Gene still gets me now and then. That Accord pun was priceless.

    Now, I would love for him to one day say, “and if any Oiler scores 5 goals, I will personally strip naked and run down to ice level…”

  20. Ben says:

    If you decide to trade Yak at this point – what on earth could you get for him?

  21. Lowetide says:

    Corsi EV 11-19 after one, 37%. Nuge 4-4 50% and Klinkhammer had a helluva period 67%

  22. Lowetide says:

    Ben:
    If you decide to trade Yak at this point – what on earth could you get for him?

    An actual Yak?

  23. frjohnk says:

    Nuge flashes greatness more and more

  24. Gerta Rauss says:

    Ben:
    If you decide to trade Yak at this point – what on earth could you get for him?

    The aforementioned pig or cow

  25. VOR says:

    woodguy,

    First could you give a source and some context for:

    If by playoff success, then your statement is incorrect because Fen/Cor in the last 20 games is the best predictor of playoff success, much more so than standings points in the regular season.

    I have questions:

    How big is the sample size?
    How many seasons are we talking about?
    What statistical tests are being applied to explore this hypothesis?
    What sort of r value are we talking about?

    Second, I very clearly stated regular season predictive power declined and never mentioned playoff prediction(s). I said, and there are multiple sources, that the ability of corsi to predict team success in the final quarter of the season declines often below chance. It has nothing to do with cumulative records or what happened earlier in the season. So good try but no cigar. It just stops being predictive. The question is why?

    I also don’t think the fact that each year some teams won loss records don’t correlate with corsi and our critics use that as proof that we are wrong is any reason to piss on them. It may be a reason to believe that there are still things about possession metrics that we don’t understand and need to work on understanding and explaining. The predictive power of corsi and other possession metrics is far above chance overall and that is now well established and unassailable. On the other hand the consistent presence of examples of corsi not being predictive in the case of some teams is also clearly obvious and weakens the existing theoretical basis of the model.

    Some of the people who doubt the validity of corsi or its usefulness raise valid concerns and describe anomalies and phenomena that need explaining. Perhaps Eakins as has been suggested here “taught to the test”. He figured out how to improve the Oilers corsi numbers and taught that and maybe he was just done in by bad goaltending. On the other hand perhaps whatever he was teaching about how to increase corsi led to all those horrible giveaways. It doesn’t matter. If we accept that he taught corsi or possession that is a major breakthrough because one of the key criticisms of all possession metrics is that they can’t be used by a coach to work with either individual players or an entire team. Eakins may have disproven that criticism.

  26. Lowetide says:

    A nice sequence there by Klefbom before he got a little wobbly

  27. PunjabiOil says:

    Why not just sign him to a new contract, if he plays well for the rest of the year? Say 2 years @ $3 million per season.

    Because he sucks.

    Sometimes the most simplest explanations are the most powerful.

  28. Captain's Log says:

    You know if we saw that Justin Schultz a little more often I’d be much more willing to overlook his defensive shortcomings.

    The Oilers are trying to lose this one methinks with all the dumb plays I’m seeing though.

  29. frjohnk says:

    You know. With Justin Schultzs skating, speed, stick handling and offense thinking I believe he would be a good forward

  30. Bling says:

    This Katz fiasco is House of Cards-esque.

    Why can’t this franchise stop embarrassing itself?

    Bunch of mooks, top to bottom.

    Katz making an ass of himself (again) and having it picked up by newspapers around the country (again) is exactly what he deserves.

    What a class act.

  31. Pouzar says:

    Lander sets up Gazdic for a decent chance. Sign him for 5 x 5

  32. Numenius says:

    We really got shafted on the Gazdic for Hall trade this game.

  33. Klima's_Bucket says:

    frjohnk,

    Schultz is what you get if you move Teddy Purcell to the point and vice-versa.

  34. frjohnk says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    frjohnk,

    Schultz is what you get if you move Teddy Purcell to the point and vice-versa.

    Both are soft yes. But Schultz has wheels.

    At one time this team was fast.

    Now there are quite a few slower players.

    Another forward that put opposing d man on their heals would be good

  35. dangilitis says:

    Best 3rd line in a decade – can’t see why anyone would tinker with that

  36. Lowetide says:

    Boyd Gordon could fetch a wild thing.

  37. JamesL says:

    BOYDO!

  38. Gerta Rauss says:

    If Brodziak had shown that kind of offense while he was here MacT would have never let him go

  39. geowal says:

    Stan Weir wishes he was Boyd Gordon.

  40. Gerta Rauss says:

    our energy is up, it comes from our practice habits, they’ve improved dramatically, practices are upbeat, forcing everyone to work hard

    -Matt Hendrix between periods when asked about the “office ice” and the “vibe” around the team

    I’m waiting for Godot to chime in

  41. Numenius says:

    Hendricks credits the Oilers increased energy to the faster, harder working and more upbeat practices.

    (Edit: Crap. I’m becoming as predictable as Godot. Thanks, Gerta!)

  42. Lowetide says:

    Oilers are getting some nice efforts tonight, it would be good to see them grab a win here and then trounce Buffalo. Head to the weekend full of piss and vinegar.

  43. frjohnk says:

    Lowetide:
    Oilers are getting some nice efforts tonight, it would be good to see them grab a win here and then trounce Buffalo. Head to the weekend full of piss and vinegar.

    As long as they beat Calgary. Anything else and the week is lost

  44. Lowetide says:

    Yakupov crushed Prosser there. Man he’s solid.

  45. frjohnk says:

    Great shift by yak.

    Nice skill by bringing the puck from his skate to his stick quickly to get a quick shot off.

  46. lance says:

    VOR,

    I like where you’re going with this. My aside: Corsi without shot quality seems virtually meaningless to me, except as a proxy for possession. it can say who’s net isn’t getting shot at.

    Regarding your query of playoff team corsi falling below random chance levels of accuracy in Q4 could maybe have something to do with contenders looking to focus on defensive techniques once playoff attendance has been secured. That’s my first thought on the subject at least.

  47. Henry says:

    Gerta Rauss: Is he worth another contract or are you certain they’ll move him along and look for another goalie in the summer..?

    I just wonder if we’re looking at guys like Lehner, are they really THAT much better than Fasth..?

    All these tweener goalies seem the same to me…maybe they’ll get hot, maybe they won’t….

    Too many juicy rebounds from Mr Fasth.

  48. Henry says:

    Ben:
    If you decide to trade Yak at this point – what on earth could you get for him?

    You can’t get anything for him… and he very well might score 400 goals and make you like like an asshole or worse, Mike Milbury. That’s why it is impossible to trade the Yak.

  49. 719 says:

    geowal:
    Stan Weir wishes he was Boyd Gordon.

    You win!!

  50. geowal says:

    Holy shit it’s firewagon hockey

  51. Henry says:

    frjohnk:
    Nuge flashes greatness more and more

    If I was a defenseman and he had the puck I would be worried about more than the gap.

  52. Henry says:

    frjohnk:
    You know. With Justin Schultzs skating, speed, stick handling and offense thinking I believe he would be a good forward

    More Purcell than Purcell.

  53. geowal says:

    Yakupov should not be a minus tonight

  54. Suntory Hanzo says:

    How does Yak not have a couple assists?

  55. Gerta Rauss says:

    omg

    *edit-what a goal

  56. Henry says:

    That was a heck of a play. I hope Charlie Coyle helped deliver Eichel. Otherwise all of Niki’s efforts will have been for naught.

  57. LMHF#1 says:

    Purcell misses a gift, Schultz too, then Ference is busy being Ference and there you have it.

  58. Dicky94 says:

    Yak will tie it up!

  59. Suntory Hanzo says:

    Nice to hear the Wild announcers say the call was bad. ‘Would you rather the guy mow your goalie down, or stop and make snow?’

  60. Gerta Rauss says:

    Well that was fun

    Nikitin with the broken stick at the buzzer

  61. hags9k says:

    A double agent would have a stick ready for just such an occation…

  62. Lowetide says:

    Yakupov was a man with the game on the line.

  63. LMHF#1 says:

    Yakupov gets second star and it was deserved. Amazed they caught that.

    What’s with the Oilers’ “offensive defencemen” being wholly unable to take a pass or get a shot through?

  64. hags9k says:

    Yak. Bottle that hunger, and keep bringing it.

  65. Numenius says:

    hags9k:
    A double agent would have a stick ready for just such an occation…

    Hahaha. That’s gold.

  66. Gerta Rauss says:

    Yakupov is the Tasmanian Devil

    Lots of whirling and energy and hell’s a poppin, for better or worse

  67. rickithebear says:

    We have a lot of good Passers!

  68. Tire Fire says:

    Yak was looking awfully good as the game wore on.

  69. VOR says:

    Lance,

    One theory I have played with is exactly what you talk about good teams dialing it in. I have also entertained Woodguy’s idea that the effect is cumulative in some way. The way the data has been presented by Vic and others the best of way of describing the observed pattern would be that in the first quarter of the season, in fact the first half of the season corsi is strongly correlated with winning percentages. The second half of the season, independent of the what happened in the first half of the season corsi is more weakly correlated and by the end of the year it is very poorly correlated if at all. It is best to think of it as two seasons. In one season corsi matters a lot. In the other it barely matters at all.

    In light of that It is possible that good teams pack it in once they know they are in the playoffs. They might also focus on defence. The thing is that if the good teams are in cruise, resting players, trying to prevent players getting hurt, and so on then their corsi might well drop but some other teams corsi is going to go up relatively and their results should as well but doesn’t.

    It has been posited that good teams have good corsi but good corsi doesn’t make a good team. Thus when playoff bound teams take their foot off the gas they are still good teams and even though their corsi performance suffers they still win games. It has even been suggested that persistent shooting effects or goaltending effects keep them winning even though they aren’t outplaying in terms of possession (ie. some sort of PDO effect – which would suggest more than luck is involved in PDO).

    It is also possible that good teams know when corsi matters, I’ve nicknamed this the blood in the water hypothesis. It would mean that when and what form your corsi events takes matters. Good teams spend the last part of the season playing good defence, waiting for an opportunity, and counter punching, rather than carrying the play, but when they counter punch they go all in. The idea that close together corsi events are better than corsi events that are more scattered (rebounds, wild flurries of shots, etc.) would fit right in.

    In a nutshell, good teams come out of the gate at the beginning of the season and kick the shit out of the opposition, at about the all star break, their playoff position secured, they start playing very efficient hockey and given they are good teams with good players they still get good results. Good results decouple more and more from overwhelming corsi performances as team efficiency rises. The good teams corsi conversion to goals percentage rises (and there is some small sample size examples of this occurring with individual teams.)

    However, I suspect there is merit, at least for some teams, in Woodguy’s hypothesis that improved possession metrics in the last twenty games predicts playoff success. This is why I am so curious to see the source. Some teams (the Vancouver Canucks for example, were good enough to sleepwalk through the season, playing super efficient hockey and putting up some decent winning percentages and positive corsi, say 55%. Coming into the last quarter of the season they would really crank it up and suddenly their corsi might be 65%. But given they were winning most of their games anyway that increased possession (metric) might not produce extra wins (they were already winning most of them anyway). So the relationship between possession metrics and winning would appear to be decoupling for these teams (more corsi = same wins, thus less corsi per win), Teams performing like this this might well be flashing, as Woodguy speculates, warning signs that they are the team to beat in the playoffs.

    Either of these theories requires that we accept that not all corsi is equal. There is any numbers of ways in which this might be true. Perhaps conversion rates matter a lot, which would imply shot quality is in fact in play as a co-factor in possession metrics at least in terms of their predictive ability. Maybe good teams can win even when not out-chancing because they get the better quality shots. Maybe the pattern of corsi events matters and changes over the season. Maybe in game corsi matters more later in the season (that is corsi close may be more important but teams with the lead may totally turtle sure their defence can prevent a comeback by their opponent whose corsi trailing by 2 or more goes through the roof.

    We could test all this but most corsi/fenwick/shot percentage stats only go back to 2007 and that means the math (while time consuming as hell) will still not necessarily be definitive. I know to most people that sample size 7 or 8 seasons seems enormous but it isn’t. Having tried it I can say statistically robust testing of relative corsi compared to Goal Differential per 60 always shows a correlation above chance but that different statistical tests and approaches for forwards result r values from .28 to .99 which suggests how you frame the question matters. That probably means, though not certainly means, that the sample size is small enough that you have to frame the hypothesis carefully and pick a statistical approach and tools that can make up for the small sample size. Now any examination of quarter by quarter play is going to be an even smaller and more problematic data set than that of all games from 2007-2015.

  70. Regretzky says:

    Tonights evolving dissertation of yak was amusing. Glad we didn’t trade him after the first period.

  71. VanOil says:

    I missed the game other than the Yak give away to start the game. I wish I could of witnessed this gem out of a game log;

    19:46 EDM Nail Yakupov has a shot on goal
    19:47 EDM Nail Yakupov receives a 2:00 penalty for unsportsmanlike conduct
    19:47 MIN Devan Dubnyk receives a 2:00 penalty for slashing

    That is how you end a game 1 goal down, fighting for a win. Love that kid warts and all.

  72. Tire Fire says:

    VanOil:
    I missed the game other than the Yak give away to start the game. I wish I could of witnessed this gem out of a game log;

    19:46EDMNail Yakupov has a shot on goal
    19:47EDM Nail Yakupov receives a 2:00 penalty for unsportsmanlike conduct
    19:47MINDevan Dubnyk receives a 2:00 penalty for slashing

    That is how you end a game 1 goal down, fighting for a win. Love that kid warts and all.

    Several other good plays too. Even some nice smash ’em and take the puck back moves. If it ever fully clicks for that kid, he’s going to have a lot of fans.

  73. TemujinBC says:

    VanOil,

    If you get a chance to watch the replay of that sequence, you’ll shake your head in disbelief. Yak got a penalty for unsportmanlike conduct because he went for a loose puck in front of Dubnyk then fell down in front of him when he tried to stop (to avoid a collision).

    Ridiculous officiating.

  74. Numenius says:

    VOR,

    Thanks for that. I actually read through it all this time and learned a lot.

  75. Hammers says:

    problem is we still lost . face it scoring 1 goal won’t cut it even against buffalo .

  76. Dark Asia says:

    Devan Dubnyk vs EDM Oilers 2014-15

    5-0-0
    .965 SP
    1.00 GAA

    That would represent one great big FU to Mr. MacTavish and the EDM Oilers who richly deserve it in this case.

  77. TemujinBC says:

    Dark Asia,

    And that’s why he wasn’t chosen as a star of the game!

  78. VOR says:

    Numenius,

    Your welcome.

  79. VanOil says:

    TemujinBC,

    Cheers, I will try and catch the replay.

  80. mc79hockey says:

    VOR –

    The way the data has been presented by Vic and others the best of way of describing the observed pattern would be that in the first quarter of the season, in fact the first half of the season corsi is strongly correlated with winning percentages. The second half of the season, independent of the what happened in the first half of the season corsi is more weakly correlated and by the end of the year it is very poorly correlated if at all. It is best to think of it as two seasons. In one season corsi matters a lot. In the other it barely matters at all.

    Can you provide a source of some sort for this claim? What you’re saying doesn’t make any sense to me.

  81. RexLibris says:

    Great to hear from you Tyler.

    Hope things are going well.

    On another note, to the general crowd here, I found this link posted over on FN about the Oilers’ inability to score going back to 2010-2011.

    http://www.coppernblue.com/2015/1/26/7918781/why-the-oilers-pdo-will-not-regress-it-s-their-parzona-of-course

    Some interesting stuff there. Great work by Bituman (GCW_69)

  82. Tire Fire says:

    Is it just me, or does it seem that whenever the Oil go through an offensive lull during a game, it’s because the other 2 F’s aren’t getting open and providing options above the goal line (where all shots come from !) for the puck carrier?

    Also, I’m always noticing how effective it is when other teams do pull this swarm/overload thing against the Oilers. Maybe Deacon Eakins wasn’t wrong on that strategy?

    *ducks under a table*

  83. v4ance says:

    RexLibris,

    Thanks Rex. That was a good read.

    For the TL;DR crowd, Oilers under Eakins focused on increasing corsi with more low % shots from perimeter. Even then, team has been historically bad at attempting and converting shots closer to the net to get greasy goals under multiple coaches.

  84. frjohnk says:

    RexLibris:
    Great to hear from you Tyler.

    Hope things are going well.

    On another note, to the general crowd here, I found this link posted over on FN about the Oilers’ inability to score going back to 2010-2011.

    http://www.coppernblue.com/2015/1/26/7918781/why-the-oilers-pdo-will-not-regress-it-s-their-parzona-of-course

    Some interesting stuff there. Great work by Bituman (GCW_69)

    That is a great write up. Too bad war on ice can not break down the season with Eakins and Nelson.

    I have in my data base that Eakins had averaged 14 shots from the box per game ( first 20 games)
    Nelson is averaging 10. ( I made a mistake earlier on this number)

    Nelson is actually averaging more perimeter shots than Eakins per game and is driving the perimeter shots for % higher.

  85. Yeti says:

    VOR,

    Really appreciate you taking the time to write all this out and patiently explain it. Interesting ideas. Kind thanks.

  86. sliderule says:

    The one improvement I see under Nelson is they are winning more puck battles.

    Now if they could only hit the net and open holes on their shots they might score.There is way too much panic in scoring areas.They have proved from 20 ft the goalies can’t move to stop a wrist shot so they have to figure out either take a little more time or take something off it to hit the holes.

    Time to put the plywood goalie in net during practice?

  87. Ryan says:

    RexLibris:
    Great to hear from you Tyler.

    Hope things are going well.

    On another note, to the general crowd here, I found this link posted over on FN about the Oilers’ inability to score going back to 2010-2011.

    http://www.coppernblue.com/2015/1/26/7918781/why-the-oilers-pdo-will-not-regress-it-s-their-parzona-of-course

    Some interesting stuff there. Great work by Bituman (GCW_69)

    Wow. Great post GCW!

    I along with others had offered the idea that Eakins had inflated the team’s Corsi with perimeter shots or “teaching to the test” as someone here often referred to rather that seeing a genuine improvement in puck possession. Your article seems to support that.

  88. rickithebear says:

    EVG:
    Western CONF
    DAL 110
    NSH 108
    CGY 105
    CHI 101
    STL 99
    COL 96
    ANA 95
    WPG 95
    MIN 94
    LAK 87
    SJS 85
    VCR 83
    EDM 77
    ARZ 70

    EDM vs Cgy
    edm -5 FWD 1-3
    EDM -3 Fwd 4-6
    EDM -9 Fwd 7-9
    EDM -10 D1-2
    EDM -2 D3-4

    We are killed by Goals from top D and third line depth.

    2 of our top 6 EVG fwds are Hendricks-Gordon Facing 20% ZS.
    Hendricks 43gm 5 EVG -2 -0.05/gm
    Gordon43gm 4Evg -1 -0.02/gm
    Our Elite tough ZS line.

    Hall 18.5 EVG/season
    Eberel 19 EVG/season
    RNH 17 EVG/season

    Pouliot-Roy-XXX Avg 15 EVG season pace together.

    Eberle effective 47gm 9 Evg but -16 -0.34/gm

    Weak EVG Years
    Perron 38Gm 5EVG -17 -0.45/gm
    Draisatl 37gm 1 EVG -17 -0.46/gm
    Purcell 48gm 4EVg -19 -0.40/gm
    Yakupov 48gm 4 EVG -22 -0.46/gm
    Lander 11gm 0evg -4 -0.36/gm

  89. Oilers Off To Hersley Park? - The Oilers Rig - The Oilers Rig says:

    […] checking in on the usual stops. As always, my first visit was to Lowetide’s website, where I encountered an interesting tidbit of information. In this piece resides a part regarding a 28 year old Swedish defender, Patrik […]

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