WILD AT OILERS, G60 2014-15

We’ve reached game 60, which allows me all kinds of new content. Exciting things like ‘drafted players who must be signed’ and ‘college free agents Edmonton could use’ and ‘who did they sign from Russia when I was in the can?’. Yes folks, we’re close to putting another wonderful season of broken televisions and empties behind us.

OILERS HOCKEY CARDS (FORWARDS)

forwards player card feb 19

Derek Roy’s Corsi for (this is 5×5) is under 50% but at even strength he’s delivering pretty well offensively on the second line. The 1line is a little ragged but not awful (it would be nice to see them over 2.00/60) and Eberle’s 5×4 is terrific. This team needs two scoring lines. Remember when we  talked of three? Don’t worry, I’ll delete the posts. Matt Hendricks has the toughest zone starts and isn’t far from 50% Corsi (I haven’t decided if I’ll stop calling it that, so stay tuned and I welcome your input). Need Hall back, but very impressed with Eberle and it’s nice to see Yakupov above 1.00 now. There’s no one delivering offense at elite levels (Taylor Hall was 2.79/60 a year ago, absolute nirvana).

OILERS HOCKEY CARDS (DEFENSE)

defense player card feb 19

Oscar! Rookie playing 19 minutes a night, lordy. He’s also over 50% Corsi at evens but this group gets the ZS push and isn’t facing the toughs (Fayne’s the lucky fellow). Ference and Petry (along with Fayne) have the hard jobs with ZS’s and there’s no one who is delivering enough offense for us to consider them elite at evens (John Carlson is 1.57/60).

petry common

The Petry thing remains a possibly astounding story. The Oilers, so late in the day for this to happen it’s crazy, appear to have reached out (we don’t know at one level but it was a gesture at any rate). Let’s not kid ourselves, late reconciliation is the contractual equivalent of a Hail Mary, but we are here.

  • Pierre Lebrun: “I would be surprised if he re-signs. I think what you heard – correct me if I’m wrong – I think what you heard was that the Oilers reached out to his agent to see if there was any interest, which is also what I heard. Whether or not that actually leads to an extension – I mean, I guess it’s possible. But my sense is he’s gone this long where he thought, because that’s what he was being told, that he was going to be traded – why not go play some playoff hockey and then maybe circle back July 1 if the Oilers are part of your plans, right? Anyway, again. I think that it’s so fresh, as far as I can understand it – in terms of the Oilers reaching out to Newport on behalf of Jeff Petry – that we’ll see how this goes over the next day or two. But I still think that at the end of the day he gets traded.” Source

 

It’s very cool to see the NHL jump in to the analytics pool, I do wish they had one of the gunners ciphering and delivering this stuff. Yost nails it of course, I’d like a graph like the Vollman Sledgehammer and zone starts (may be there, can’t find) but this is a fun toy and as long as the NHL is open to tweaking I’m fine with it. I can’t find PDO and they’ve carved Corsi and Fenwick from the ledger, not sure if I’m going to follow. Seems to me if enough of us stay the course eventually the true innovators will be rewarded. I’m just hippy enough to be down on the ‘man’ for being a controlling asshat, so suspect I’ll go with Corsi, Fenwick and PDO. We’ll see. There’s lots of explaining that will need to be done to those who haven’t taken the time to suss it out, so expect confusion and derision to continue.

I think that’s a good thing, to be honest. KPD is letting his audience know where he stands and telling everyone the information he’s going to value and report. For me, that’s intellectually honest. Either learn this stuff and apply it to your thinking, or disclose early and often you’re not buying in. One side is BETA and the other is VHS and the audience will decide the winner. I’m hopeful we have a good race!

vitti

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

It’ll be a fun Friday with a wide range of subjects today. Scheduled to appear starting at 10 on TSN1260:

  • Steve Lansky, Big Mouth Sports. What if a Canadian team wins the draft lottery?
  • Jeff Krushell, Krush Performance. NFL combine, spring training!
  • Jesse Spector, Sporting News. Some spring training stories are trickling in, and some of these gents took the winter off!
  • Jeff Hauser, Radio Hauser and SB Nation. NFL combine and will my Eagles do something dumb at the draft?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide_ on twitter. Talk soon!

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339 Responses to "WILD AT OILERS, G60 2014-15"

« Older Comments
  1. Pouzar says:

    Brossoit with a a couple beauty saves on PP

    Then I jinx it

  2. Kmart99 says:

    From the previous thread:

    Is there a site that provides shot differential numbers for 5 man combos? For example: Somewhere that provides a corsi nbr for (purcell-rnh-ebs-klef-jultz) separately from( purcell-rnh-ebs-Ference-Petry)

    This could be extremely useful for coaches when looking for chemistry

    Anyone know of a site that provides this?

  3. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    Lowetide: Bogdan Yakimov inadvertently barreled into him

    Oh man, that would be a goalie’s nightmare. Hope he’s okay.

  4. RexLibris says:

    Not watching any of the games, but saw this posted on FN

    “Friedman saying Flames/Hawks have a deal in place ready to go for GlenX, Hawks needing time for cap space”

    Anyone confirm this?

  5. RexLibris says:

    Haven’t watched the video but Dave Naylor offers up his opinion on the resistance to advanced analytics.

    For the record, I like Naylor as a reporter. Dellow featured.

    http://www.tsn.ca/video/opinions-differ-regarding-advanced-stats-1.212297

    *edit – watched it now. Good coverage. Even, considerate, tells the story from a few different perspectives. I like MacKenzie’s opinion: as someone who has covered the game for years, I don’t understand why you wouldn’t explore every avenue to give you a competitive advantage.

    From Burke: if there are teams who are willing to hand over the draft to analytics guys and ignore the advice and expertise of their scouts who have years of experience of seeing how players react in situations, I hope those teams are in our division.

    Classic Burke.

  6. book¡je says:

    spoiler: Sorry Book¡je, I don’t buy that we should be apologizing every time we make a joke. I think there’s a real slippery slope there that ends in a form of Hell.By the very nature of humour, it is often “inappropriate”. It’s up to the critics to either find a sense of humour or be mature enough to agree that their sense of humour disagrees with that particular joke and let it slide.

    A society that can’t laugh at itself is tobogganing down the slope towards intolerance, leaving a jilted Liberty standing all by herself at the top of the hill cracking wise about fart mittens.

    Sorry to belabour this side issue, folks, but it strikes very near and dear to me.

    Anyhoo, I’m off to the pub to watch the match, so I won’t be waxing pedantic any longer… Today. lol.

    GOilers!

    Clap clap.

    Nobody arrested the guy. He was moderately socially sanctioned for saying something that’s become unacceptable by social standards. Don’t worry, there is still lots and lots of humour in the world much of it quite edgy. What has tended to fade away as we have evolved are the regular use of terms that refer to classes, races, ethnicities, and genders as a slur. I’m ok with that. It’s actually a form of tolerance, something which you noted a fondness for.

    With that said, as society evolves we are all going to make the mistake of using outdated phrases from time to time, I think we should be totally forgiving when this happens. It’s nothing serious. However, as noted before, there is nothing wrong with apologizing when we do so.

  7. book¡je says:

    Nice goal by Marchant there, great to see the Oilers win a playoff series!

  8. Kmart99 says:

    book¡je: Nobody arrested the guy.He was moderately socially sanctioned for saying something that’s become unacceptable by social standards. Don’t worry, there is still lots and lots of humour in the world much of it quite edgy.What has tended to fade away as we have evolved are the regular use of terms that refer to classes, races, ethnicities, and genders as a slur.I’m ok with that.It’s actually a form of tolerance, something which you noted a fondness for.

    With that said, as society evolves we are all going to make the mistake of using outdated phrases from time to time, I think we should be totally forgiving when this happens.It’s nothing serious.However, as noted before, there is nothing wrong with apologizing when we do so.

    He said ” not to be a girl about it “. Nothing wrong with that. It’s humour, and there’s nothing outdated about it other than that it’s an old saying that isn’t all that funny. But nonetheless, it’s still just humour and obviously not intended to be taken any way other than that.

    Sexism, racism, homophobia, etc… it can all be used in humour and shouldn’t ever be taboo or considered outdated. He shouldn’t have had to apologize.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z94JOo0mkg4
    If it’s funny, it’s funny.

  9. unca miltie says:

    book¡je:
    Nice goal by Marchant there, great to see the Oilers win a playoff series!

    Yes, once we get cujo and pronger, the oil will win another one

  10. book¡je says:

    Kmart99: He said ” not to be a girl about it “.Nothing wrong with that.It’s humour, and there’s nothing outdated about it other than that it’s an old saying that isn’t all that funny. But nonetheless, it’s still just humour and obviously not intended to be taken any way other than that.

    Sexism, racism, homophobia, etc… it can all be used in humour and shouldn’t ever be taboo or considered outdated.He shouldn’t have had to apologize.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z94JOo0mkg4
    If it’s funny, it’s funny.

    Yes, society should never change. It’s best if girls grow up in a world where they regularly hear that being a girl makes you inferior.

    Similarly, if some young homosexual commits suicide after years of being demeaned by his peers using homophobic slurs, that’s his problem because we are not a whitty enough group to actually come up with actually funny things to say.

    People have a right to say whatever they want, however, others are also free to tell them that what they are saying is stupid, the intelligent and empathetic ones will reflect on that and change. The rest will defend the status quo until they fade to irrelevance.

  11. Pouzar says:

    Aulie-Ference
    hold me

  12. hunter1909 says:

    Another brave prediction:

    Yakupov gets at least 1 point tonight.

  13. hunter1909 says:

    book¡je: People have a right to say whatever they want

    Not anymore, they don’t.

  14. Pouzar says:

    lucky bastard

  15. Pouzar says:

    2. OKC Moroz, (2) (Simpson, Khaira), 15:00

    2-2

  16. book¡je says:

    hunter1909: Not anymore, they don’t.

    Really? Your rights are not infringed if others critisize you. Indeed, criticism is a form of free speech. You are as free to say as many stupid things as you like without the government arresting you. People confuse social sanction with government persecution.

  17. Lowetide says:

    Moroz (Simpson, Khaira)

  18. Pouzar says:

    Klef caught flat footed there.

  19. jake70 says:

    Heard you talking Raptors today I think. Laying a beating now on the mighty Hawks.

  20. leadfarmer says:

    Scrivens finds ways to make himself look small.

    This game should help MacT see the future without Petry. Well I guess not his future cause I don’t see him surviving this.

  21. Pouzar says:

    Bruins not exactly loving the Western Conf these days.

  22. Zangetsu says:

    jake70,

    My suns traded everyone. I don’t wanna talk basketball for awhile.

  23. Pouzar says:

    F^ck sakes…can we just put Oesterle in tomorrow?

  24. hunter1909 says:

    Look at the bright side. Tonight we get to see how they look next season without Petry.

  25. hunter1909 says:

    book¡je: Really? Your rights are not infringed if others critisize you.Indeed, criticism is a form of free speech.You are as free to say as many stupid things as you like without the government arresting you. People confuse social sanction with government persecution.

    Love how even daring to question today’s PC thinking gets one attacked, albeit weakly.

    When I read Orwell’s 1984 I thought I was supposed to be reading fiction. Doublethink all the way, baby!

  26. G Money says:

    Kmart99,

    I can generate that info from the massive data gathering exercise I’ve been doing (the temporal Corsi experiments, which require collecting and QAing and extracting and reconciling with RTSS and then spreadsheeting every corsi event in the last six seasons). It has players on ice for home and away (by jersey #) for every Corsi event.

    I posted the link to the current season spreadsheet a while back, I can repost if you’re a scripter/programmer and feeling brave enough to try it yourself.

  27. jake70 says:

    Zangetsu:
    jake70,

    My suns traded everyone. I don’t wanna talk basketball for awhile.

    Raptors were trading Rudy Gay to take a run at Wiggins….now they are a top team in the league.

  28. Lowetide says:

    jake70:
    Heard you talking Raptors today I think. Laying a beating now on the mighty Hawks.

    They’re gaining momentum as a Canadian franchise. People text and email asking for more Raptors content. It’s a fun brand of basketball for sure.

  29. Snowman says:

    Zangetsu:

    My suns traded everyone. I don’t wanna talk basketball for awhile.

    Unless you live in Pheonix, how in gords name did you become a fan of the Suns…?

    Also can we agree that no matter what people say about what and who thinks its right or wrong, everything that a Maple Leaf says is stupid? Same goes for the Phlegms and the Canuckle Heads.

  30. KSC10032 says:

    I’m only half watching here.

    Was Jultz nicked up early in the first? He wasn’t out there much, if at all for the last 15 minutes or so.

  31. Snowman says:

    Lowetide: They’re gaining momentum as a Canadian franchise. People text and email asking for more Raptors content. It’s a fun brand of basketball for sure.

    I remember when they were first franchised with the Grizzlies. God I loved the Raptors back then with Damon Stoudamire. It was so cool to have a Canadian team to cheer for. And then through the Vince Carter/Tracy McGrady era was even cooler. There were some dark days with Chris Bosh (not because they were bad, mostly because I strongly dislike Bosh).

    This Raptors resurgence is pretty cool as a fan of basketball. They play a great style, they’ve got some good young stars and what great branding they’ve done. All the success they’ve had these past couple years is hard earned. Great, great franchise.

  32. Kitchener says:

    Schultz only 1:30 in the first. What happened? I’m just tuning in.

  33. G Money says:

    Leafs still without a road win in 2015.

    Their Tank Fu is strong.

  34. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Lowetide,

    They’re way more popular here than I thought. They turned the corner as a franchise last year.

    Subban lit up like a Christmas tree tonight (lit up like an Oiler goalie). 3 GA on 6 shots.

  35. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Kitchener,

    KSC10032,

    Puck caught him up high. He went to the locker room.

  36. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Just tuning in? Might be one of those Friday nights you’re better served tuning out and taking your lady out for a nice dinner date. Has that kind of feel early.

    Earn some brownie points for a more important Friday night down the road.

  37. cabbiesmacker says:

    Never cared for Craig Button much but after the comments he directed at MacFoolish today I’d give the man a high fiver. Well done for calling out emperor MacFumbles Mr Button.

    Can anyone actually listen to Craig MacTavish speak without rolling their eyes and shaking their head? Does he even believe his own BS?

    Keep right on defending your hiring of Eakins tho MacD. Pat yourself on the back for your glorious trades that have made this team so much stronger while you’re at it. Whatta buffoon.

    “Kids. Always wear a helmet. Here’s living proof of what can happen when you don’t.”

  38. Kitchener says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”,

    Thanks. I hope the kid is okay, but I wouldn’t mind the Oil getting excuses to roll Osterle & co.

  39. stevezie says:

    Kmart99,

    Comedians like Rock, Black, Bruce, Carlin etc. weren’t saying that “Sexism, racism, homophobia” were funny themselves- just that they can be talked about. There is humour in these topics. We shouldn’t be afraid of political correctness.

    In the excellent Louis CK clip you shared, he argues that the word it’s not worth my trouble to repeat is not homophobic, not that being homophobic is funny.It’s hard (probably impossible) to argue that “don’t be a girl” isn’t sexist. It’s kind of exactly the definition of that.The CK clip doesn’t apply.

    It’s not a huge deal- Rielly used phrasing that was really common in the past- he doesn’t need to be strung up and I don’t think there is a lynch mob forming (if there is they’re fools). But Rielly- and people in general- ought to be aware that equating having a bad attitude with being a girl is sexist and demeaning- even if it’s not hateful. Would you tell someone not to be a jew about something? Or that someone shouldn’t be such a black guy?

    You (and Hunter, sort of) are right that this stuff should be able to be talked about, which is what we’re doing and what political correctness is against. The conversation is good, but it doesn’t mean all conclusions are equal,which is why comedians like CK, Carlin, Rock… hell The Blue Collar Comedy Tour have all made fun of sexism, racism, and homophobia. We’re allowed to mock outdated attitudes. That is the free speech you laud.

  40. Snowman says:

    stevezie,

    Well said.

  41. stevezie says:

    hunter1909,
    I don’t think most of the terms you’re talking about mean what you think they mean.

    I share your contempt for political correctness, as it seems to want to declare certain words and topics as off-limits. This retards the conversation. A climate of condemnation and self-righteousness makes it impossible to express new ideas.

    You’re talking about free speech as if it means no one is allowed to disagree with you. We can tell you you’re wrong, we just shouldn’t try and destroy you for being wrong. Which we’re not. I am not anyway. I’m busy. Obviously.

  42. jake70 says:

    Snowman: I remember when they were first franchised with the Grizzlies. God I loved the Raptors back then with Damon Stoudamire. It was so cool to have a Canadian team to cheer for. And then through the Vince Carter/Tracy McGrady era was even cooler. There were some dark days with Chris Bosh (not because they were bad, mostly because I strongly dislike Bosh).

    This Raptors resurgence is pretty cool as a fan of basketball. They play a great style, they’ve got some good young stars and what great branding they’ve done. All the success they’ve had these past couple years is hard earned. Great, great franchise.

    2nd pro sports game I saw was Grizzlies playing the Cavs in Vancouver in 97, was a guy named Big Country playing for the Grizzlies. All I remember was the grizzly bear growl over the arena speakers at a billion watts…had to change my underwear first time they played it…lol.

  43. Kitchener says:

    Special thanks to the Staals. 2 points for Carolina.

  44. Dicky94 says:

    Man does Minnesota play a boring game. I could play net for them and get a shut out.

  45. Lowetide says:

    Okay, we’re done with the social conversation. Please take that kind of thing to your respective blogs if you’d like to continue. Thanks.

  46. Snowman says:

    jake70,

    That’s a great story. I remember hearing that sound on TV when they’d have games on CTV on Sundays sometimes. Big Country was probably the most redneck basketball player in the NBA since Larry Bird. They had another guy back then, with a crazy name like Shareef Abdur Rahim or something and he was a hell of a player. The only good player the Griz had.

    I haven’t had the opportunity to see an NBA game yet, I might take a trip (like Gregor) to see Kobe play before he retires if I can.

  47. jake70 says:

    Dicky94:
    Man does Minnesota play a boring game. I could play net for them and get a shut out.

    The Ghosts of Jaques Lemaire still with the team.

  48. Kmart99 says:

    G Money:
    Kmart99,

    I can generate that info from the massive data gathering exercise I’ve been doing (the temporal Corsi experiments, which require collecting and QAing and extracting and reconciling with RTSS and then spreadsheeting every corsi event in the last six seasons).It has players on ice for home and away (by jersey #) for every Corsi event.

    I posted the link to the current season spreadsheet a while back, I can repost if you’re a scripter/programmer and feeling brave enough to try it yourself.

    Please do. Thanks!

  49. Gerta Rauss says:

    Apologies if this has been posted already( I haven’t read all the comments yet) but Kelowna(Leon) versus Victoria(Chase) on Sportsnet Pacific (ch 223 Shaw on the West coast) starting in 10 minutes

  50. godot10 says:

    Kitchener:
    Special thanks to the Staals.2 points for Carolina.

    Oilers needed a Toronto victory more than a Carolina one though.

  51. Lowetide says:

    Ford (Miller, Hunt) 3-3 tie headed to OT

  52. Kmart99 says:

    deleted my own comment. srry LT.

    Goil!

  53. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    godot10: Oilers needed a Toronto victory more than a Carolina one though.

    This.

    Most likely standings based on calendar 2015 performance have : 30) Buffalo, 29) Toronto, 28) Edmonton.

  54. Snowman says:

    Dicky94,

    This game really makes me look forward to the Ducks game tomorrow. At least when we lose to the ducks something will happen. I feel like the clock is just ticking and every now and again they put a goal up for Min. This is terrible. I feel for their fans.

    On another note, I bet MacT loves all these ass kickings that Dubnyk is laying on the Oilers this year.

  55. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Would like to break up Dubnyk’s goose egg this time around. That’s all I ask. Small victories in the life of an Oiler far.

  56. RexLibris says:

    Just tuned in to catch the score.

    3-0 in the 2nd.

    Heh, and Flames fans wanted the Oilers to help them out tonight.

    Guess they haven’t been keeping up with the 780 lately.

  57. Lowetide says:

    Bogdan Yakimov scores in OT and the Barons win.

  58. Pouzar says:

    Eric Rodgers ‏@ericrsports 2m2 minutes ago
    Miller with the breakaway, Thiessen makes the save and Yakimov is there for the rebound! #OKCBarons with the 4-3 win over Adirondack!

  59. Snowman says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”,

    28th is ok. Hanifin or Strome will be very nice additions. Or that Russian D.

  60. Snowman says:

    Drew Remenda asking what do the Oilers have down 3-0? The answer: Not much.

  61. Kitchener says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”,

    Good Gord. The Leafs getting McEichel is TSN’s dream come true.

  62. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Kitchener:
    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”,

    Good Gord.The Leafs getting McEichel is TSN’s dream come true.

    The Leafs may finish 29th but then someone else will win the lottery and they will miss out on McEichel. #becausemapleleafs

    They’re cursed more than we are these days

  63. steveb12344 says:

    RexLibris:
    Just tuned in to catch the score.

    3-0 in the 2nd.

    Heh, and Flames fans wanted the Oilers to help them out tonight.

    Guess they haven’t been keeping up with the 780 lately.

    Ya, This is one I don’t really mind losing tonight. Keeps the Yotes, and Leafs at bay, and for as much as I hate the Wild, I would be delighted if they were the ones that eventually knock the Flames out of the playoff position.

  64. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    RexLibris:
    Just tuned in to catch the score.

    3-0 in the 2nd.

    Heh, and Flames fans wanted the Oilers to help them out tonight.

    Guess they haven’t been keeping up with the 780 lately.

    It’s not so much the score as shots being 21-10 after two periods. Oilers didn’t show up tonight and the Wild are a very good team that now have decent goaltending. There’s no coming back from this one. Like I said after the 1st, you guys out west should take your girlfriends and wives out tonight.

  65. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    steveb12344,

    On the remote chance that they win the lottery, I prefer the Flames to make the playoffs then be swept over finishing just out and then winning McDavid.

  66. book¡je says:

    Lowetide:
    Okay, we’re done with the social conversation. Please take that kind of thing to your respective blogs if you’d like to continue. Thanks.

    To be fair, it was a respectful conversation all around which was nice.

    However, your the boss, it’s back to hockey now – anyone hear MacT lukewarm on Nelson today? I would like to think it’s just him maturing as a GM and that he plans to do a proper search before offering the job to Nelson. However, I worry that he just doesn’t respect Nelson’s style and that Nelson was not really his hiring (He noted that others in the organization convinced him not to step behind the bench full time). Maybe he’s looking for another soulmate.

  67. RexLibris says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”: It’s not so much the score as shots being 21-10 after two periods. Oilers didn’t show up tonight and the Wild are a very good team that now have decent goaltending. There’s no coming back from this one. Like I said after the 1st, you guys out west should take your girlfriends and wives out tonight.

    TOGETHER? This isn’t the cosmopolitan East, my friend. Prairie girls aren’t as open-minded as the ones you obviously know.

    Kidding, of course, but I had absolutely no illusions about this game being anything but a disappointing loss. I’ll just be happy if they can get out of it without any more significant injuries.

  68. Dicky94 says:

    Pouzar,

    Bring him up!

  69. Pouzar says:

    Dicky94:
    Pouzar,

    Bring him up!

    Nah….gotta let him over-ripen!

  70. Dicky94 says:

    Snowman,

    If Dubnyk played for Buffalo or Toronto it would be a complete different story. Still not sold on Dubnyk. Never was.

  71. book¡je says:

    There is some kind of lesson in the Devan Dubnyk Debacle. I hope MacT knows what it is and has learned it.

  72. book¡je says:

    Dicky94:
    Snowman,

    If Dubnyk played for Buffalo or Toronto it would be a complete different story. Still not sold on Dubnyk. Never was.

    Look at all of the soft goals he has let in tonight.

  73. Dicky94 says:

    book¡je,

    He gets no shots.

  74. Pouzar says:

    book¡je:
    There is some kind of lesson in the Devan Dubnyk Debacle.I hope MacT knows what it is and has learned it.

    Build a better team?

  75. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    book¡je:
    There is some kind of lesson in the Devan Dubnyk Debacle.I hope Katz knows what it is and has learned it.

    Fixed. Like my dog.

  76. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    book¡je: Look at all of the soft goals he has let in tonight.

    He always plays better when the season is lost, and there’s no pressure!

  77. book¡je says:

    Dicky94:
    book¡je,

    He gets no shots.

    He stops 93% of those he gets.

  78. Jigger says:

    Pouzar:
    Eric Rodgers ‏@ericrsports2m2 minutes ago
    Miller with the breakaway, Thiessen makes the save and Yakimov is there for the rebound! #OKCBarons with the 4-3 win over Adirondack!

    The second mouse gets the cheese

  79. RexLibris says:

    book¡je: He stops 93% of those he gets.

    FANCY STATS! BURN HIM!

  80. Kitchener says:

    Pouzar,

    Move to Minnesota?

  81. Snowman says:

    Dubnyk in my mind was/is probably a little better than average goalie. I think he was a little mentally weak and I imagine fear of being careerless has cured him of that.

    No doubt he looks good because Minnie plays good hockey but he’s a decent goaler. Certainly better than what we’ve had since he left.

  82. RexLibris says:

    Colorado taking it to the Hawks in the 3rd, up 4-1.

    Meanwhile, I keep checking the TSN feed to see if the Oilers game is over yet.

  83. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    I posted this a while back, but it’s more topical tonight. Doobie studied head trajectory in the offseason, and cites it as a big influence in his game today.

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=754075

  84. RexLibris says:

    And media guys complain about Corsi and Fenwick being obscure and arcane.

    http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2015/feb/20/magnus-carlsen-rating-bobby-fischer

    In this Zurich game, Anand’s 12 Rd1 and 13 Be3 improves on the 12 Bg5 he played against Carlsen in their world title match. Aronian goes for win of a piece, but 19 d7! is fine compensation as Black’s pieces are in a tangle. Caught in a prepared variation, Aronian blundered by Be4? (Nc7) and Bc6? (Ra5) when 21 Rd6! proved crushing as White, who threatens both Rxc6 and Rxg6+, will meet Rb6 by 22 Qd1 Rb6 23 Rxc6! When Anand emerged a piece up, Black resigned.

    Interesting read about computers changing the nature of the competitive chess field to increase parity alongside overall performance. Has comparables, in my opinion, to modern NHL training.

  85. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    I’m updating this one tonight assuming Edmonton doesn’t come back

    As for the question of finishing 26th overall, here are the calendar year 2015 records:
    Philly: 10-7-3
    Ottawa: 8-9-3
    Jersey: 10-7-2
    Toronto: 2-17-2
    Columbus: 10-11
    Carolina: 11-7-2
    Buffalo: 3-17-1
    Colorado: 10-8-3
    Arizona: 6-12-3
    Edmonton: 9-11-2

    If the paces above continue, we’d be looking at:
    Philly: 87 pts
    Jersey: 83 pts
    Colorado: 84 pts
    Ottawa: 81 pts
    Columbus: 80 pts
    Carolina: 79 pts
    —————————————Realistic line
    Arizona: 64 pts
    Edmonton: 64 pts
    Toronto: 57 pts
    Buffalo: 46 pts

    Looks to me like Edmonton will pass Toronto like a house on the side of the road on Highway 2. Arizona is well within reach. But no chance Edmonton finishes 26th. None.

  86. SVR says:

    Yak and Roy line are the only ones looking dangerous tonight

  87. RexLibris says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”,

    As bad as Toronto is, I don’t think even this level of bad is sustainable.

    Knowing how hockey karma likes to kick people when they’re down, Toronto probably trades away all the good players, calls up some schmucks and then wins 8 out of 10.

  88. Snowman says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”,

    Good news and bad news. Top 4 picks look pretty damn good from here.

    Who are your 3/4 picks?

  89. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Snowman:
    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”,

    Good news and bad news. Top 4 picks look pretty damn good from here.

    Who are your 3/4 picks?

    Hanifin, Strome, Marner in that order depending if we are #3,#4, #5.
    Happy with all three. Happier though probably with the first two, all things being equal, because they are positions of greater need (and let’s just throw in a MOAR bigger in there for good measure).

  90. Johnny Larue says:

    book¡je,
    Nothing like political correct bulshit lets stifle speech and label people to shut them up for options we don’t like racist homophobe sexist climate change denalist etc well I am all of those and more and if you don’t like it I am not going to apologize but if you want to debate bring it on if not fuck you

  91. frjohnk says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”:
    I’m updating this one tonight assuming Edmonton doesn’t come back

    As for the question of finishing 26th overall, here are the calendar year 2015 records:
    Philly: 10-7-3
    Ottawa: 8-9-3
    Jersey: 10-7-2
    Toronto: 2-17-2
    Columbus: 10-11
    Carolina: 11-7-2
    Buffalo: 3-17-1
    Colorado: 10-8-3
    Arizona: 6-12-3
    Edmonton: 9-11-2

    If the paces above continue, we’d be looking at:
    Philly: 87 pts
    Jersey: 83 pts
    Colorado: 84 pts
    Ottawa: 81 pts
    Columbus: 80 pts
    Carolina: 79 pts
    —————————————Realistic line
    Arizona: 64 pts
    Edmonton: 64 pts
    Toronto: 57 pts
    Buffalo: 46 pts

    Looks to me like Edmonton will pass Toronto like a house on the side of the road on Highway 2. Arizona is well within reach. But no chance Edmonton finishes 26th. None.

    The crazy thing about Toronto is that they were not far away from Boston in points when they fired Carlyle. Full tank since.

  92. John Chambers says:

    Shame about Yak’s point streak about to come to a close.

    Tidy little run for The Russian.

  93. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    frjohnk: The crazy thing about Toronto is that they were not far away from Boston in points when they fired Carlyle. Full tank since.

    Yup! And one of those two wins was against us, right in front of a few of us at ACC, 5-1 on a HNIC game 🙁

  94. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Doubled up on shots at home and completely shut down. I wonder if the Oilers even had 3 scoring chances all night?

    Also, can’t wait to see the Twitterverse tonight point out DD’s record, GAA and sv pct. vs. the Oilers this year

  95. leadfarmer says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”,

    Now take out Petry and put in Aulie into the lineup and redo your calculations.

  96. frjohnk says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”: Yup! And one of those two wins was against us, right in front of a few of us at ACC, 5-1 on a HNIC game

    Which should probably tell us that we will out tank Toronto.

    They are newbies at tanking.

    Us? Grizzled veterans when it comes to tanking.

  97. Kitchener says:

    Ugly McWin.

  98. book¡je says:

    I wonder if Dubnyk would have done better under Nelson?

  99. Pouzar says:

    book¡je:
    I wonder if Dubnyk would have done better under Nelson?

    No he wouldn’t have. Because the Oilers haven’t improved under Nelson.

  100. Jigger says:

    book¡je:
    I wonder if Dubnyk would have done better under Nelson?

    He could not have been worse. Eakins ruined this core. Might be a chance to recover but it doesn’t look good now.

  101. SVR says:

    John Chambers,

    Still played well though, I thought. Glad to hear MacT talking of sgning Roy. Its been like getting a two for one since he arrived and Yaks improvement

  102. G Money says:

    Kmart99: Please do.Thanks!

    Here you are my friend!

    https://app.box.com/s/tm2y0kdjs5qbesre3ohq8wus1vfxo57a

    Let us know what interesting things you find!

    (Also let me know if there are any data busts)

  103. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    I do not envy whoever is doing the CoH player grades tonight.

    Well, actually, it should be easy. Pakarinen, Yakupov, Roy get 4s. Everyone else a 1, otherwise known as thanks for coming out award!

  104. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    But I thought the Flames were invincible in the 3rd period…

  105. Suntory Hanzo says:

    Why can’t we ever beat Minnesota? They are like the Kingsfoil that negates Nelson’s nazgul blade.

    Seems like we haven’t beaten them since the Northstars knocked us out in 1991 semifinal and I was so pissed that Fuck Bobby Smith got away with cross checking Gelinas in the back of the head that I drank my face off at Tilleys in Sherwood Park and went home and thought threw up in my sheets.

    Woke up swearing I threw up the night before, but didn’t see any. Promptly took the bus to west Ed from Sherwood park in plus 30 weather on the city bus which took two hours whilst I was sweating beer.

    Got home and checked the sheets again. Yup, I did throw up in the bed. That day, I learned how to use the washing machine. Thanks sis!

    True story. Shameful, but true. Not the drinking, but the learning to use the washer at age 19.

  106. G Money says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”:
    But I thought the Flames were invincible in the 3rd period…

    They jinxed themselves.

    While the Flames fans I know are convinced that being regularly outshot and outchanced and running up a big early deficit and then coming back from that night after night was actually a deliberate strategy implemented through brilliant coaching and massive “heart and grit” rather than sheer dumb luck … the players themselves lately have talked about how they can’t keep letting the other team get a lead on them, that it isn’t a winning strategy in the long run.

    Ooops. The Hockey Gords are displeased with such insolence.

  107. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    John Chambers:
    Shame about Yak’s point streak about to come to a close.

    Tidy little run for The Russian.

    Shut out for Doobie then? I tuned out a while ago.

  108. Surly says:

    The Oilers decided to honour the players from the Worlds Longest Hockey Game by making us watch something that felt like the Worlds Longest Hockey Game.

  109. Lowetide says:

    Auston Matthews ’16: Shut out for Doobie then? I tuned out a while ago.

    Yes. I don’t think he’ll need a shower.

  110. Johnny Larue says:

    I have been a season ticket holder for over 20 years and it only took me a couple of years to figure never go watch the oilers play the Wild better to gouge your eyes out than go to that game and it remains ever such. I don’t know if it is the curse of Jaques Lameire (sp) or what but those tickets are the first ones discarded at the beginning of the season no matter what

  111. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    Lowetide: Yes. I don’t think he’ll need a shower.

    The way he’s playing, we know that he won’t need a baby shower

  112. Lowetide says:

    John McCarron 2 goals tonight
    Joey Laleggia 2 assists tonight
    Aidan Muir 1 goal tonight
    Tyler Vesel 1 goal tonight

  113. Surly says:

    I’m not a fan of jersey tossing. With that said though, I don’t think media folk should weigh in on the debate (Gregor, DVD, Matty all tweeted to speak up against) given those individuals don’t pay their hard earned money to be at the games (exact opposite, they are paid to be there). Just my $0.02.

  114. Lowetide says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”:
    I do not envy whoever is doing the CoH player grades tonight.

    Well, actually, it should be easy. Pakarinen, Yakupov, Roy get 4s. Everyone else a 1, otherwise known as thanks for coming out award!

    Jon did an excellent job. One of the really underrated parts of the Oilogosphere imo is Jon/Bruce our man Woodguy three times and counting plus I believe David Staples sometimes doing those. Excellent.

  115. flyfish1168 says:

    G Money: They jinxed themselves.

    While the Flames fans I know are convinced that being regularly outshot and outchanced and running up a big early deficit and then coming back from that night after night was actually a deliberate strategy implemented through brilliant coaching and massive “heart and grit” rather than sheer dumb luck … the players themselves lately have talked about how they can’t keep letting the other team get a lead on them, that it isn’t a winning strategy in the long run.

    Ooops.The Hockey Gords are displeased with such insolence.

    I work with some phlegm fans that are such idiots. They don’t believe or understand PDO. They truly believe they are one of the best teams by eye.

  116. Johnny Larue says:

    As I sit here and listen to the waves crash onto the shore contiplating my return to Edmonton tomorrow I can’t help to be more optimistic than when I left over the fate of the oilers. It seems that MacT has come to his senses and is trying to sign Petry Klinc is signed for a good deal talks are on with Roy and Nelson’s work has been acknowledged all positive steps. All this is an improvement over a week ago when MacT was musing about his defense for next year. As a long time Oiler fan I can’t help being optimistic that with the draft this year and the improvement of the team under Nelson we are not that far off. Then again it just maybe the optimism of the last few tequila flowing through viens .

  117. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Lowetide,

    Yes. I read it tonight and agree with you . I didn’t mean it as a slight against what they do. I meant it as a slight against the team that didn’t show up tonight, in case that wasn’t clear.

    I try to make it a point to support those guys who offer great insights both here and through their own channels.

  118. Johnny Larue says:

    That said I didn’t have to watch the debacle tonight and there was the tequila

  119. Dark Asia says:

    Doooooooobie!

    Laid another goose egg on the Oilers – get used to Mr 6 Rings and MacT – he’s still plenty young.

  120. RexLibris says:

    Maloney trades Dubnyk to Minnesota.

    Tents fingers and issues forth an evil chortle “hah! we’ll see about drafting McEichel NOW won’t we MacTavish!”

    Scans schedule to see Oilers play Minnesota plays Edmonton three times following trade.

    “CURSES! Foiled again by those miserable brats.”

  121. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide:
    John McCarron 2 goals tonight
    Joey Laleggia 2 assists tonight
    Aidan Muir 1 goal tonight
    Tyler Vesel 1 goal tonight

    You’re missing the most important scoreline of the evening.

    http://theahl.com/stats/game-summary.php?game_id=1014231

    Barons 4. Baby Flames (hmm, let’s call them Sparks, like the junior girl guides) 3.

  122. spoiler says:

    book¡je: Yes, society should never change. It’s best if girls grow up in a world where they regularly hear that being a girl makes you inferior.

    Oh dear, for Gord’s sakes they’re allowed to make the same kind of jokes about us and can and do. Usually much better than us.

  123. SVR says:

    Drysaddle with another 3 points tonight including scoring the winner with a couple minutes left. Chase scores for Victoria. Hopefully team mates next year in Bakersfield

  124. kooler says:

    Leon….14 pts in 4 games.

  125. spoiler says:

    Suntory Hanzo:
    Why can’t we ever beat Minnesota?They are like the Kingsfoil that negates Nelson’s nazgul blade.

    Seems like we haven’t beaten them since the Northstars knocked us out in 1991 semifinal and I was so pissed that Fuck Bobby Smith got away with cross checking Gelinas in the back of the head that I drank my face off at Tilleys in Sherwood Park and went home and thought threw up in my sheets.

    Woke up swearing I threw up the night before, but didn’t see any.Promptly took the bus to west Ed from Sherwood park in plus 30 weather on the city bus which took two hours whilst I was sweating beer.

    Got home and checked the sheets again. Yup, I did throw up in the bed. That day, I learned how to use the washing machine. Thanks sis!

    True story. Shameful, but true. Not the drinking, but the learning to use the washer at age 19.

    That is a magnificent story.

  126. spoiler says:

    RexLibris:
    Maloney trades Dubnyk to Minnesota.

    Tents fingers and issues forth an evil chortle “hah! we’ll see about drafting McEichel NOW won’t we MacTavish!”

    Scans schedule to see Oilers play Minnesota plays Edmonton three times following trade.

    “CURSES! Foiled again by those miserable brats.”

    This is pretty frickin good too.

  127. spoiler says:

    spoiler: This is pretty frickin good too.

    Yes, I sold my soul to John Barleycorn tonight… Damn you, John Barleycorn!

    (and that sly fucker, Perry)

  128. Lowetide says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”:
    Lowetide,

    Yes. I read it tonightand agree with you . I didn’t mean it as a slight against what they do. I meant it as a slight against the team that didn’t show up tonight, in case that wasn’t clear.

    I try to make it a point to support those guys who offer great insights both here and through their own channels.

    Yeah, I didn’t take it as you slighting them. I always mean to mention how much I appreciate them, thought your post was a good place to add in my two cents.

  129. v4ance says:

    Just running around the Al Gore, I came across these 2 analytics related basketball stories:

    (1) http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/12318808/the-philadelphia-76ers-radical-guide-winning

    The 76’s are now run by a 37 year old GM who is doing a full scale tank using analytics that Brian Burke would love to hate. The general gist is the only way to build an NBA championship team is having stars who can only mainly be found in the 1st round and more specifically, early in the first round. SO that’s what they’re trying to stockpile.

    They currently have options on (http://www.sixerswiki.com/wiki/Future_Draft_Picks) 4 first round picks and 6 second round picks this year. If the other teams retain their picks due to how badly they finish this year, the owed picks transfer to the next year(s) and actually become better.

    For instance the Lakers 2015 1st pick is owed to the 76ers now unless it is #1-5. If they finish bottom 5, the Lakers retain the pick this year and owe next year’s 1st rounder which is protected #1-3. If the Lakers finish bottom 3 next year, they retain the pick for 2016 but if they finish 4th, the 76ers get the 2016 4th overall pick via the Lakers. If they retain the pick in 2016, the pick is totally unprotected for 2017 so even if the Lakers are dead last, Philly still gets the #1 overall pick in 2017 from LA.

    Part of how the organization got so many picks is a philosophy of taking on Horcoff/Mike Richards type overpaid contracts with 2nd round picks as sweeteners. The theory behind this strategy is that NBA teams generally undervalue 2nd round picks.

    The other thing that the organization is doing is stockpiling long limbed players under the assumption shooting % can be improved but body types can’t change over time.

    (2) http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2015/feb/20/140-points-a-game-but-are-the-reno-bighorns-a-basketball-experiment-too-far

    Quoting:
    The point is to play as fast as you can on your shift of roughly two minutes, racing to score on layups or three-pointers until the next group of five checks in, then the five after that and then you are back, lunging for steals, driving down court, shooing three-pointers for two minues more. Eventually the other team wears down. Legs get tired. Shots fall short. And desire wins.

    It even had its own mathematical formula, found by researchers at the school to be 95% accurate and explained by former player Ross Preston in a book he wrote about Grinnell’s offense called: The Road to 138.

    94sh* x 33% + 32to + 25 shot differential = W
    *94sh = 47×2+47×3

    Translated, this means that in order to win Grinnell need to take at least 94 shots with half of those attempts being three-pointers, rebound 33% of their missed shots, force the other team to turn the ball over 32 times and take 25 more shots than their opponent.

    Hockey style 2 minute shifts of 5 man units with 1 person shooting 3 pointers or a layup, 4 people going for the rebound. No midrange jumpshots at all! Full court press every time they don’t have possession.

    Insanity!

  130. v4ance says:

    Just a passing thought.

    Would Winnipeg take Teddy Purcell($4.5M) for Mathieu Perrault($3M)? Perrault is out 6-7 weeks and the Jets desperately want to get to the playoffs this year. Without Perrrault and the now injured Drew Stafford, they may not make it. They are playing Byfuglien up at forward but the analytics show he’s much more effective as a defenceman. The Jets have lots of cap room so they can easily take on Teddy’s extra $1.5M cap hit (which is actually much less with only 25% of the season remaining)

    Perrault can’t help the Oilers’ lost 2014-15 season but he’d be great C depth for next year. We did actually make a competitive offer last July but he chose Winnipeg.

  131. SwedishPoster says:

    It wasn’t a very good game from the boys but it wasn’t Toronto/Ottawa bad by any stretch, they faced what was probably the best systemplay of the season. Minnesota plays a really strong game in all zones, aggressive on the forecheck when they can, clogging up the neutral zone when the forecheck has failed gaining possession, defending all three lines very well, strong positioning in their own zone, a million sticks in the way through all zones, good lanes offensively, bodies to the net. Just plays really well as a 5 man unit, gets on the right side of the puck all the time.

    Tough team to get any traction against on a good night and on a night like last night when the Oilers didn’t get the energy, pace or puck moving up you’re not going to touch them.

    Just a really difficult couple of games coming up. The best team in the league this regular season next on a back to back(though they’re on a B2B as well), the Wild again and then the Blues, the playoff chasing newly awakened Kings and finally the Hawks before finally getting an easier match up against the Canes who are playing better lately. Just a really tough few weeks ahead with a injury struck squad and even if they don’t get a lot of wins I hope they stay in there better than this last one, hopefully use it as a learing experience. It will be interesting to see what Nelson can do with this stretch as it his toughest challenge so far. It will likely kill his .500 record quite efficiently.

    The only line remotely generating throughout the game was the Roy line which was nice to see. The first line did some things in the third but didn’t get much going for most of the game,

  132. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    v4ance,

    Doubt Winnipeg does that
    They seem to love Perrault
    They will probably trade Burmistrov’s rights for some help. Would Purcell with 1.5m retained by the Oilers get you Burmi? Hmm. Maybe not.

  133. russ99 says:

    How many more times are we going to make Dubnyk look good this year?

    The way this is going, Minny will probably trade him to a Pacific team we face 3-4 more times this year…

  134. Lois Lowe says:

    Out of deference for LT I am not going to make a long post about Reilly’s comments or some of the responses here. Bookjie is absolutely right though.

  135. theres oil in virginia says:

    Lowetide: Jon did an excellent job. One of the really underrated parts of the Oilogosphere imo is Jon/Bruce our man Woodguy three times and counting plus I believe David Staples sometimes doing those. Excellent.

    Shouldn’t that have been Woodguy’s job last night? #shutout

  136. theres oil in virginia says:

    flyfish1168: I work with some phlegm fans that are such idiots.They don’t believe or understand PDO.They truly believe they are one of the best teams by eye.

    I don’t get it. The stats and the eye agree: the Flames are not a fundamentally good team. There’s no disagreement between the stats and the eye. They do have some really good players, and sometimes that’s enough to squeak out the game. There is room for heart/grit in the equation though. How many games have the Flames won on comebacks? How many have the Oilers lost on comebacks? It takes heart/grit to be able to suck it up and not quit, and perhaps take advantage of the other team letting down their guard late in games. It still isn’t a sign of a good playoff team, but it is a sign of a dangerous team that a higher ranked team won’t want to take too lightly come playoff time.

  137. Woodguy says:

    theres oil in virginia: Shouldn’t that have been Woodguy’s job last night?#shutout

    Luckily for me I was busy last night.

    I bet on MIN ml, MIN -.5 and MIN -1.5

    Had a good night.

    I hope MacT takes a long look at his team without Petry.

  138. wheatnoil says:

    Woodguy:
    I hope MacT takes a long look at his team without Petry.

    I hope he takes a long look before trading him for a 3rd.

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