FOR WHAT IT’S WORTH

The Edmonton Oilers have received some nice performances from young defensemen this season and some of these men (Oscar Klefbom, Justin Schultz) are likely here for the rest of the decade. Others, like Martin Marincin, are auditioning not just for the Oilers but the entire NHL, as the Oilers have only so much room for youngsters. Marincin has reached the 300-minute mark on the season and is 50.6% Corsi 5×5. That’s a good number and it’s hard to argue he’s the No. 7 option on this roster:

OILERS BLUE PLAYER CARD

PLAYER BOXCARS CORSI FOR % OZ STARTS 5X5 PER 60 EV TOI
ANDREW FERENCE 58, 2-9-11 45.5 40.5 0.60 17:37
KEITH AULIE 18, 0-0-0 45.6 41.5 0.00 12:26
MARK FAYNE 61, 2-5-7 45.9 43.2 0.33 15:27
JEFF PETRY 58, 4-11-15 49.1 43.4 0.59 18:13
MARTIN MARINCN 20, 0-1-1 50.4 45.5 0.19 16:13
NIKITA NIKITIN 34, 3-5-8 48.5 52.0 0.47 15:43
OSCAR KLEFBOM 39, 2-9-11 50.2 55.9 0.75 19:25
JUSTIN SCHULTZ 60, 4-18-22 50.7 63.5 0.85 18:57
JORDAN OESTERLE 1, 0-0-0 70.8 80.0 0.00 16:20

This is sorted by offensive zone start (from worst to first) and shows Marincin as the only defender with a sub 50% ZS who also delivers a Corsi for 5×5 at greater than 50%. It’s a little misleading—Jeff Petry is the star of this graph—but 20 games in young Marincin is in fact performing well enough to warrant more playing time. I’m bullish on this kid’s future but there are two things to discuss here:

  • The Oilers verbal (or lack of) in regard to the player when discussing the future
  • The Oilers recent track record in regard to evaluation of the defense

I think Martin Marincin could end up being a bizarre deadline pickup for an NHL team and it’s unlikely the cost would be dear. I don’t have much confidence in this organization’s ability to evaluate defensemen and the Jeff Petry issue is only part of the problem.

PETRY GONE?

  • Elliotte Friedman: There is no expectation that the Edmonton Oilers and defenceman Jeff Petry talk about a contract extension. Other teams would be shocked if Petry isn’t one of the moves. Source

The latest from Elliotte runs counter with what we’re hearing and it’s still likely Edmonton deals their best defender. There’s also a rumor that the Oilers are still planning on bringing in Johnny Boychuk for a boatload of cash in the summer (via Brooksie, here) so there are many legs to this story. Could this be the depth chart next season?

  • Klefbom—Schultz
  • Ference—Boychuk
  • Nikitin—Fayne

MacT could pick up some picks for Petry and Marincin to fuel his rebuild, send Nurse to the AHL and acquire a college free agent or two for the long run. I don’t believe this defensive six is any good at all but there’s not one damn chance Edmonton has Ference or Nikitin or Fayne outside the top six and Schultz is protected and we know it. So, among the kids Olscar Klefbom makes the grade, Darnell Nurse is in the minors with Jeff Petry and Martin Marincin likely down the road.

It’s all coming together!

OESTERLE

The young man looked solid solid to me, nice outlet passing and very little panic. Marincin and Oesterle in the lineup and Keith Aulie in the pressbox looked good from here, I wonder if we see those men in Minnesota this week? If Oesterle can play, it reduces the need to get immediate payback on Petry (the Oilers aren’t going to win many games after Petry leaves anyway) perhaps allowing for a higher draft pick.

  • Klefbom—Schultz
  • Marincin—Fayne
  • Ference—Oesterle

It also allows Edmonton to audition Marincin for the rest of the season on the off chance MacT changes his mind. I have to say it’s kind of depressing to contemplate this organization sending away Petry and Marincin while retaining Ference and Nikitin. Where on earth is this going to be viewed as moving forward?

Sign Jeff Petry. Today.

*Marincin photo by Rob Ferguson, all rights reserved. Statistical information via Hockeystats.ca, Behind the Net and NHL.com.

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254 Responses to "FOR WHAT IT’S WORTH"

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  1. Gerta Rauss says:

    CAPITALIST posts are infrequent, but I have the same DSF radar and 1 of his posts set the alarm off a few weeks ago.

    Like I said though, I need a larger sample size before I could say for sure

  2. Zack says:

    Numenius: Let’s just get accustomed to that for awhile, to get used to how nice it’d look.

    Klefbom-Boychuk
    Ference-Petry
    Marincin-Fayne
    Nikitin

    Doesn’t that already feel less chaotic? There’s no problem with PP time because Boychuk and Petry can take that and possibly Klefbom.

    Now let’s say you’ve traded Jultz for Wiercioch (or equivalent) and bought out Ference.

    Klefbom-Boychuk
    Wiercioch-Petry
    Marincin-Fayne
    Nikitin

    That’s starting to feel like a playoff worthy D. And it’s actually affordable because Schultz’s expected 4-5M is gone and 2.5M of Ference is gone, which pretty much gets you Boychuk. The extra 2.25 to Petry either comes from a higher cap or savings elsewhere. Klefbom is still in his entry deal.

    1-6.5
    2-5.25
    1.5-3.6
    4.5
    0.667 (Ference hit for first year of buyout, see War-on-ice)
    Total 25.35M

    Then for the next year, Nikitin’s salary is gone and you can pay Klefbom and Wiercioch with his and Ference’s money, and Nurse will be in the mix with his low salary. The trick in all of this would be getting Boychuk to sign for only 4 years or so, because you don’t want him too long term once Nurse and Klefbom have to get paid.

    Schultz does seem to be the problem. If he were only going to be making Fayne money for the next 4 years, he and Boychuk might be a better choice (in light of the cap) over Petry and Boychuk, but since he wants more (and McT seems to agree) and seemingly won’t improve enough to earn it, keeping him doesn’t make much sense.

    What is this logic? Brilliance. Unfortunately, I cannot see MacTavish, in any way shape or form, constructing a decent blue line like this. I think they would still be a “Number One”/Star guy away from really making an impact during the season or playoffs but at least this is a pretty well balanced group here.

    I think we are going to have to get use to Schultz and his Jultzing over the next few years, what will be worse is his future cap hit to this team. Yuck.

  3. Ca$h-Money! says:

    Woodguy,

    Agreed. I think if you asked most GMs in the NHL where they would slot Klefbom or Marincin in their lineup at the end of this year they would say 5-7… Or not at all.

  4. spoiler says:

    Gerta Rauss: Granted, although MacT may sign my corpse to a PTO and have me playing 3rd pairing minutes with Ference.
    And then I’ll have the last laugh

    Been a pretty funny thread so far, with this, GMon’s Palin comment, and Matthews definitely deserves a shout-out for his two scores: irritable vowel syndrome and it turned out like Oilways… just brilliant.

  5. Heinz 57 says:

    It’s far from obvious to me that the year spent in Dallas Eakins’ XO Reform School didn’t need to happen in one form or another, and once I derate the mugnifude of the Eakins mistake, I think it’s possible that MacT can legitimately argue (behind the scenes) for escaping the inquisition with his title intact for one more kick at the can.

    The actual choice presented here is whether projected future MacT is better or worse that projected future impressive-interview person (complete with impressive resume most likely capped with “recently terminated for non-performance”—the only way an experienced outside candidate becomes available to this organization afflicted with a seven-year-plague that’s still scoreless after who’s-still-counting rounds of the skills competition.)

    The only thing one learns from history is how little one learns from history.

  6. spoiler says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    CAPITALIST posts are infrequent, but I have the same DSF radar and 1 of his posts set the alarm off a few weeks ago.

    Like I said though, I need a larger sample size before I could say for sure

    Thanks for giving us all a heads up. I’ll keep an eye open too.

  7. theres oil in virginia says:

    spoiler: Agreed. I can usually pick out a DSF sock puppet within about 4 posts, and have done so accurately in the past.Verdad is definitely not DSF, and Capitalist ‘s posts I don’t remember, but if I have read them and the DSF alarm didn’t go off, it’s unlikely it’s him.

    I’m pretty sure he’s Richard Cloutier. (Well, somebody has to be him from time to time!)

  8. Gerta Rauss says:

    theres oil in virginia: I’m pretty sure he’s Richard Cloutier.(Well, somebody has to be him from time to time!)

    DSF posts on Woodguy’s blog and they refer to each other by their first names, so WG may be the authority on this. I think LT knows his true identity as well, from their CFRN days.

  9. spoiler says:

    Wow, McDavid with a 5 point night last night.

  10. spoiler says:

    theres oil in virginia: I’m pretty sure he’s Richard Cloutier.(Well, somebody has to be him from time to time!)

    Haha! That’s pretty funny too.

  11. book¡je says:

    I like DSF. He is the best troll I have ever seen. I’m stunned so many people join in to respond to him.

    He does make the odd well informed post, but a lot of what he does(did) was trolling.

  12. Lowetide says:

    I thought DSF made some great points and I’m sorry he doesn’t post here. I’m pleased he has his own blog (it’s on my blogroll) and I encourage you to read it. I don’t visit his site because he has in the past said things about me that I don’t like, but he is (and all are) welcome here as long as they are respectful to each other.

  13. Gerta Rauss says:

    book¡je:
    I like DSF. He is the best troll I have ever seen.I’m stunned so many people join in to respond to him.

    He does make the odd well informed post, but a lot of what he does(did) was trolling.

    Yes, I have an admiration for what he does(did), he’s Hall of Fame worthy

  14. sesame_oil says:

    haters,

    I am not saying rnh is a bad player, he is just not a number 1 center right now on a non lottery team as he is still a young developing center which is paid 6 mill which in my mind is number one center type of money. I don’t believe we can say we are getting good value for our money for our 6 mill hockey players

    My comment about being overrated may have not been the best wording l, in my opinion , when things go wrong for the oilers , eberle,hall and yak get their fair share of the criticism as they should but rarely do people mention rnh. When there is any opportunity for improvement for rnh, people get sensitive like we just insulted their son or something.

  15. book¡je says:

    Just went to DSF’s blog – its great in a DSF kind of way. It just DSF after DSF after DSF without all of the efforts at logic by other posters in between. I liken it to just eating the Tang crystals instead of mixing them with water – it burns a fair bit, but is really sweet too.

  16. Gerta Rauss says:

    Lowetide,

    That’s interesting LT. His posts disappeared from here and ON at the same time, I thought there was a concerted effort from yourself and the mods at ON to see to it that his posts stopped appearing at both sites.

    That assumption appears to be incorrect

  17. spoiler says:

    book¡je:
    Just went to DSF’s blog – its great in a DSF kind of way.It just DSF after DSF after DSF without all of the efforts at logic by other posters in between.I liken it to just eating the Tang crystals instead of mixing them with water – it burns a fair bit, but is really sweet too.

    You’re not a former astronaut by any chance, are you?

  18. thejonrmcleod says:

    Question: Is it possible to trade a draft pick but protect it, like they do in the NBA? For example, could the Oilers trade their first round pick but protect it if it ends up being a top-2 pick? Is there any rule against this?

  19. Gerta Rauss says:

    thejonrmcleod,

    Sure-the Islanders did this with their first last year that they traded to Buffalo

  20. wheatnoil says:

    Woodguy: There’s only 77 minutes of Boychuck without Leddy so small samples can do strange things.

    Here’s Boychuk’s TOI mates and CF% away from Leddy::

    HICKEY, THOMAS19:1346.9%
    DE_HAAN, CALVIN17:4748.7%
    STRAIT, BRIAN17:4545.9%
    POULIN, KEVIN14:2356.7%
    HAMONIC, TRAVIS13:5423.8%
    VISNOVSKY, LUBOMIR11:4066.7%

    The 13 minutes with Hamonic seems to be throwing everything for a loop.What a bizarre results from two good players.

    Boychuk’s numbers in BOS were good without Chara.Unsure of type of comp faced without Chara.

    Sometimes Chara was in the line up, sometimes not.

    You’re right, really small sample sizes outside of Leddy. Thanks for looking that up. I was in the middle of looking at it when my son woke up from his nap early.

    I looked at his last 3 years in Boston combined, but it’s always hard to interpret data given that Chara skews everything. Boychuk played the most with Chara, it skews all his WOWY numbers. That said, Chara + Boychuk = 58.7%, Boychuk without = 52.2%, Chara without 54.7%… so Boychuk was helping Chara’s numbers too.

    His other WOWY numbers aren’t too exciting, but they do indicate that he didn’t appear to be zoomed by anyone else. He’s a better bet than Ference. As others have mentioned, the problem is cost & term vs Petry’s cost & term.

  21. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy: Ellis-Eklhom’s results are better then Seabrook-Keith this year.

    Those 4 guys are certainly top 4 2nd pairing D though.

    But results?

    What results?

    EVGA?

    Crosses finger and waits with excitement!

    You can do it!

  22. Lowetide says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    Lowetide,

    That’s interesting LT. His posts disappeared from here and ON at the same time, I thought there was a concerted effort from yourself and the mods at ON to see to it that his posts stopped appearing at both sites.

    That assumption appears to be incorrect

    Yeah, I rarely time anyone out beyond a day or so. If it’s late at night and I’m a little concerned I’ll put in a moderation line but that’s it. Almost all of the timeouts are due to poster-on-poster abuse.

  23. rickithebear says:

    I miss DSF!

    I do not get the cathartic angry keyboard pounding!

    I am getting close to having to invest in some kind of dangerous energy zapping past time like……

  24. LadiesloveSmid says:

    rickithebear: But results?

    What results?

    EVGA?

    Crosses finger and waits with excitement!

    You can do it!

    If EVGA makes Nikitin-Fayne look like an elite shutdown pair, I will invest precisely zero in it

  25. Dashingsilverfox says:

    rickithebear,

    I miss him too!

    And I’m very concerned that you have so much unfocused energy going to waste.

  26. SkatinginSand says:

    Lowetide:
    The talk of Nuge being a bust or poor is silly. Those who state it are showing gross stupidity or attempting to troll. Either way, please move your bullshit down the street. Thanks.

    I find this troubling. How are prognostications of offensive mediocrity any less intellectually credible than the frequent (and much lauded) views that we are seeing the fourth year of a Jean Beliveau like career? I am not sold on either view, but I am not optimistic that we will ever see a consistent 70 pt. player. But LT, your blog, your rules.

  27. thejonrmcleod says:

    I scanned through a few of DSF’s recent posts. I wonder what motivates him to continue to trash the Oilers.

  28. thejonrmcleod says:

    SkatinginSand: I find this troubling. How are prognostications of offensive mediocrity any less intellectually credible than the frequent (and much lauded) viewsthat we are seeing the fourth year of a Jean Beliveau like career? I am notsold on either view, but I am notoptimistic that we will ever see a consistent 70 pt. player. But LT, your blog, your rules.

    This sounds like DSF.

  29. Woodguy says:

    Dashingsilverfox:
    rickithebear,

    I miss him too!

    And I’m very concerned that you have so much unfocused energy going to waste.

    Well done.

  30. Lowetide says:

    SkatinginSand: I find this troubling. How are prognostications of offensive mediocrity any less intellectually credible than the frequent (and much lauded) viewsthat we are seeing the fourth year of a Jean Beliveau like career? I am notsold on either view, but I am notoptimistic that we will ever see a consistent 70 pt. player. But LT, your blog, your rules.

    Earlier in this thread, a poster asked “will Nuge ever post a 50-point season?” and that inspired the response. If you’re arguing something won’t happen THAT HAS HAPPENED TWICE” you’re wasting people’s time and trolling.

    That isn’t going to fly here. Sorry.

  31. barry.moore23 says:

    One of the guys on my adult league team made some nice zone exit passes last night. I thought “boy, he’d look good in Ference’s spot”. I need psychiatric help maybe soon 🙂

    Go Oilers !!!

  32. Eustace Matthews '16 says:

    Lowetide: due to poster-on-poster abuse

    Reminds me of when I bought the Farrah and Cheryl Tiegs posters and put them up in my room. My Mom took them down, and my Dad dug them out of the garbage and put them up in the garage. Slightly wrinkled, but still very nipply.

    I was so confused…

  33. spoiler says:

    Dashingsilverfox:
    rickithebear,

    I miss him too!

    And I’m very concerned that you have so much unfocused energy going to waste.

    Woodguy: Well done.

    Ha! And I had just spent several minutes Googling and tracking down CAPITALIST’s thin posting history.

    Capitalist is definitely not DSF, if the DSF posts above don’t make that clear.

    Closest past “regular” poster to Capitalist in style is Art Vandelay… however a couple of the posts are a little long for Art’s abbreviated attention span, so without more to go on, I’d say it’s not him either.

  34. spoiler says:

    Eustace Matthews ’16: Reminds me of when I bought the Farrah and Cheryl Tiegs posters and put them up in my room. My Mom took them down, and my Dad dug them out of the garbage and put them up in the garage. Slightly wrinkled, but still very nipply.

    I was so confused…

    I kind of miss that watery Bo Derek one too. I think I had to hide it behind a Christie Brinkley high-cut one-piecer to get it past my Mom.

  35. Lowetide says:

    there’s a Deborah Harry, she’s wearing one of those sparkly dresses and she’s just incredible looking. That’s my favorite.

  36. spoiler says:

    Lowetide:
    there’s a Deborah Harry, she’s wearing one of those sparkly dresses and she’s just incredible looking. That’s my favorite.

    Amazing eyes in that poster. Almost fey.

  37. GCW_69 says:

    Woodguy: Sure.

    Marincin is up this year and I don’t see much past $1.5M x 2

    Klef’s bridge will probably be something like $2.5 x 2

    I think Klefbom’s negotiations could be interesting. If he is carrying Schultz and Schultz is making between $3.5 and $4.0m I could see Klefbom’s agent pushing for more than $2.5m once his ELC is up.

  38. flyfish1168 says:

    Hawks may need a goalie, a d-man and is in CAP hell. I wonder if we can send Ference and Scrivens for Crawford and a draft pick. I hate Crawford’s contract 6×6 and this is the 1st year, he may just need a change of scenery. One way to get rid of Ference.

  39. Gerta Rauss says:

    spoiler: Capitalist is definitely not DSF, if the DSF posts above don’t make that clear

    that’s nice work

    I think LT is Robin Masters

  40. Numenius says:

    Lowetide:
    I thought DSF made some great points and I’m sorry he doesn’t post here. I’m pleased he has his own blog (it’s on my blogroll) and I encourage you to read it. I don’t visit his site because he has in the past said things about me that I don’t like, but he is (and all are) welcome here as long as they are respectful to each other.

    I don’t know. I agree he has good things to say, but I find the way he says them and says them so persistently inevitably poisons the thread. I’m happiest if he looks but doesn’t touch.

  41. sliderule says:

    McDavid with five points on Saturday and Marner says I can do that too with five on Sunday.Strome with 2pts on Saturday

    There are some really nice forwards in OHL.

  42. Woodguy says:

    Gerta Rauss: that’s nice work

    I think LT is Robin Masters

    I think he’s Higgins.

    Wait….

  43. spoiler says:

    Gerta Rauss: that’s nice work

    I think LT is Robin Masters

    I thought Orson Welles was Robin Masters!

    Damn, I wish that had actually come to fruition.

  44. SVR says:

    Anyone hear how the rest of Leons weekend went after 3 point game Friday?

  45. spoiler says:

    Woodguy: I think he’s Higgins.

    Wait….

    Oops… I thought he was Charlie Townsend.

  46. rickithebear says:

    LadiesloveSmid: If EVGA makes Nikitin-Fayne look like an elite shutdown pair, I will INVEST precisely zero in it

    Goals are such a zero value stat!
    😉

  47. rickithebear says:

    Dashingsilverfox:
    rickithebear,

    I miss him too!

    And I’m very concerned that you have so much unfocused energy going to waste.

    I was going to say mistress!

    But that is suicide!

  48. Rondo says:

    I think LT is Roger Verbal Kint.

  49. RexLibris says:

    Buffalo gets out of the 1st period against Nashville 0-0.

    And we think we’re the only ones playing for moral victories right now.

  50. Lowetide says:

    Rondo:
    I think LT is Roger Verbal Kint.

    In my wildest dreams. New post is up, on Leon.

  51. dangilitis says:

    Lowetide:
    Lowetide says:
    February 22, 2015 at 2:56 pm

    I thought DSF made some great points and I’m sorry he doesn’t post here. I’m pleased he has his own blog (it’s on my blogroll) and I encourage you to read it. I don’t visit his site because he has in the past said things about me that I don’t like, but he is (and all are) welcome here as long as they are respectful to each other.

    Yeesh. I value science in my work, and DSF to me was (I talk about him in past tense because he is finally gone in spite of imitators) the epitome of a pseudo-scientist, who used threads of information that were real to make assertions that were mostly false or misguided. “Immunizations cause autism,” or “Suter is clearly superior to Weber,” the statements are equally misleading and inflammatory. This was what he excelled at, nothing more. Worst of all, when he was challenged, he was a coward about it. He was not entertaining, but I am happy that his posts provided more traffic to your site (although you clearly have done fine without him :)).

    I hope he is still reading this blog, because I will not reward him for his ignorance and would never provide additional traffic to what I surmise are a series of rants that are not edited for accuracy or consistency.

  52. McSorley33 says:

    thejonrmcleod:
    I scanned through a few of DSF’s recent posts. I wonder what motivates him to continue to trash the Oilers.

    Yes, DSF and Ferarro are on an island trashing the Oilers.

  53. CrazyCoach says:

    *With apologies to Robert DeNiro*

    Top 5 Reasons to sign Jeff Petry

    5) Just sign him already!

    4) He’s the best D-man the Oilers have!

    3) Haven’t you been listening to me. Just sign him already!

    2) Who else is going to fill in his spot?

    1) Just sign him already!

  54. Oilers Have Their Defensive Plan? - The Oilers Rig - The Oilers Rig says:

    […] result in a contract, and that the Oilers are likely to deal the defender within the next week. HNIC’s Elliotte Friedman reported the same on Saturday […]

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