PROCUREMENT WINDOW ABOUT TO OPEN

Once the trade deadline passes, Oilers fans will be keen to watch college signings, draft picks entering into their entry-level deals and perhaps a few men extended for the 2015-16 season (as was recently done with Rob Klinkhammer and Ryan Hamilton). Let’s review the possible moves.

COLLEGE SIGNINGS

  • D Joey Laleggia: Hobey candidate having another strong college season. Guy Flaming spoke to the gifted defender recently and it looks like the young man is looking forward to turning pro and playing in the Oilers system.
  • R John McCarron: Big winger has not posted a strong college season but he does has size and could grab a contract.
  • G Matt O’Connor: College free-agent goalie playing in one of the Beanpot games today, MacT is there to watch him. Elliotte Friedman and others have connected the player to the Oilers.

EUROPE

  • Anton Slepyshev: Russian winger is enjoying a strong season and would seem to be a no-brainer addition for next season. Likely Bakersfield bound but there aren’t a lot of skilled wingers bubbling under.
  • Roman Horak: Bolted early but should have a signing window and perhaps the Oilers can talk him into a contract. Matt Fraser hasn’t grabbed the job that is available, perhaps Horak is a better fit.

CHL

  • C Kyle Platzer: He comes with a two-way rep, so the offense this season is in addition to a solid resume. Range of skills guys are always my favorites, hope Edmonton gets him signed.
  • R Jackson Houck: Uneven season but is closing well and one suspects some of the turmoil comes from playing on a bad team. Oilers will like his size.
  • C Marco Roy: Intelligent two-way center could be very valuable addition. I’m a little concerned Oilers won’t ‘see him good’ but he’s an industrious player who does a lot of things well.
  • D Ben Betker: Monster defender who can skate. The Oilers will sign him.

C Greg Chase, C Leon Draisaitl and D Darnell Nurse are already signed and will turn pro in the fall.

PRO LEVEL

  • C Anton Lander: He should be signed to a one-way, multi-year contract at some point this spring. He’s one of the good things about this season.
  • D Martin Marincin: They have to decide on him and that will include a one-way deal (or not). I’m convinced he’s a player. Are the Oilers?
  • R Tyler Pitlick: Rob Klinkhammer got his contract and Ryan Hamilton may have gotten his backup plan. We’ll see but the battle got very difficult for Pitlick recently.
  • L Matt Fraser: I like his game but he needs to score consistently. A much better prospect than some of the guys taken in his draft year(s).
  • D Keith Aulie: Oilers will very likely bring him back.
  • R Andrew Miller: I think he gets a contract and may get a look-see before season’s end.
  • D Brad Hunt: GM signed him, suspect he’ll be back.
  • D Brandon Davidson: The Oilers have always spoken highly of him, suspect he gets a contract.
  • L Curtis Hamilton: I like his season a lot, suspect he’s done enough to get another deal.
  • G Tyler Bunz: Unlikely to get a contract.
  • C Kellen Lain: No idea, would guess he doesn’t return.
  • G Frans Tuohimaa: I think the goaltending gets a makeover and he won’t be part of the new day.

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90 Responses to "PROCUREMENT WINDOW ABOUT TO OPEN"

  1. spoiler says:

    C Anton Lander: He should be signed to a one-year, multi-year contract at some point this spring. He’s one of the good things about this season.

    LT, I’m guessing you mean one-way, not one-year?

  2. John Chambers says:

    The Oilers are in a similar position with Lander now than they were with Petry 3.5 years ago.

    They could bridge Lander for cheap to continue to ‘see’ if he’s an NHL player, or they could give the boy some nice security and also get him signed to a 4- or 5-year contract at a bargain.

    Sometimes you need to expose yourself to some semblance of risk …

  3. Lowetide says:

    spoiler: LT, I’m guessing you mean one-way, not one-year?

    Yes! Thanks for the head’s up.

  4. spoiler says:

    I’m not as sure on Aulie sticking as I suspect he was an Eakins hire.

  5. spoiler says:

    LT…

    Do you get the feeling it will be a choice between McCarron or Houck, but not both?

  6. Lowetide says:

    spoiler:
    LT…

    Do you get the feeling it will be a choice between McCarron or Houck, but not both?

    Tough to say. The club has several wingers (Slepyshev, Chase, McCarron, Houck) who could turn pro at the same time (Chase can play center or wing), plus Horak and a bunch of men like Pitlick and Hamilton. They’re going to have to decide on some of these guys but could still shoehorn McCarron and Houck if they wanted.

  7. Halfwise says:

    Pitlick is 6 years younger than Ryan Hamilton. Granted, Oiler management might conclude that he’s made of glass, but surely youth, speed and Shoots Right have to figure into things, no?

    I’m more worried about the shallow pool of D prospects, frankly.

  8. Lowetide says:

    Halfwise:
    Pitlick is 6 years younger than Ryan Hamilton. Granted, Oiler management might conclude that he’s made of glass, but surely youth, speed and Shoots Right have to figure into things, no?

    I’m more worried about the shallow pool of D prospects, frankly.

    sure but Ryan Hamilton has a contract. Oilers have to make some decisions here.

  9. nqmt says:

    am i the only one extremely excited about Slepyshev and Platzer? They look to be blooming at the right time

  10. Woodguy says:

    D Keith Aulie: Oilers will very likely bring him back.

    I’ll give you +150 on that.

    There is zero evidence that he’ll be back and ample that he won’t.

    I think you just put stuff like that in your posts to see if anyone actually reads them.

    Edit: and Spoiler spotted it too.

  11. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Continuing on from last thread, I found one of my cap/Canadian dollar rants from January.
    I would add that this doesn’t even account for the Rogers deal, so this likely means that the latest Canadian market percentage of revenue vs. US is likely considerably higher now. And at 1.25 we’re at an ~18% decline or thereabouts in the Canadian dollar.

    THE ARTIST FORMERLY KNOWN AS “NYCOIL” says:
    January 21, 2015 at 12:49 pm
    Re: The salary cap, and this is important.
    1/3 of the league’s revenue (at least at the box office) was coming from Canadian teams in 2012 : (Source: http://www.thestar.com/sports/hockey/2012/01/01/for_nhl_the_cash_is_in_canada.html)
    If we assume that ratio remains the same, since the NHL draft last year, the Canadian dollar has declined vs. the US dollar by 16%. This is going to get worse with the US preparing to hike interest rates just as Canada surprised by cutting rates today to stem a looming recession caused by the filter down effect of the energy sell-off and the very bloated looking Canadian housing market that is about to suffer a correction.
    At current levels, (1.235), the NHL’s revenue projections (at 33% ratio of revenues) will miss by 5.3%. If the Canadian dollar weakens to 1.3 the hit to revenues will be 8.7%. These figures are based on foreign exchange rates alone and would not factor any potential slow down to the economy.
    There is significant reason to believe that the NHL’s current cap of $69M may not rise nearly as much as projected, or more will be put in escrow for a rainy day scenario. 5.3% of $69MM is $3.64M. 8.7% is $5.97MM.
    I hope that the Oilers are anticipating this and considering ways to clear the books of Nikitin, Purcell, and any other large contracts for players earning more than their production warrants. Purcell is okay as a player, and Nikitin may get a bit better when healthy, but neither player is currently earning his keep nor is irreplaceable at a lower cost.
    Teams like Chicago, Philadelphia, and Boston are quite likely to be in for a very cold reality. Even LA has to re-sign Kopitar. Chicago’s Kane and Toews contracts are absolute killers. The Rangers’ contracts to Staal and Girardi are killers.
    A well-positioned, savvy team will absolutely be able to capitalize on this situation if it came down to it. The Oilers should be clearing cap space this year in order to take advantage of these teams next year.

  12. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: sure but Ryan Hamilton has a contract. Oilers have to make some decisions here.

    Speaking of…

    Ryan Rishaug @TSNRyanRishaug · 1h 1 hour ago

    Ryan Hamilton’s deal is one year 2 way 600/300. Not sure if that’s been reported yet.

    This is the first I’ve heard of the numbers.

  13. Woodguy says:

    Lander and Marincin

    What do you give them?

    Marincin is coming off ELC and so they own his soul for another 4 years and he doesn’t have arb rights. (correct me if I’m wrong)

    2 years at 1.1MM?

    Lander has burned his first post ELC RFA year. That should mean 3 left.

    I sign him for 1 year at 1.1MM or so (I like that number apparently) and then look for a long term contract next year at ridiculous value to the team like 2.5MM or something.

    The way Lander has played he’s reminding me of Nielsen on NYI (who should have won the Selke the year “3rd line competition” Kesler won it.)

    Nielsen did 2 years at $575 after his ELC and signed for 3 x 2.75 and has been amazing value for Snow.

    One more year then sign him for as long as possible if he keeps this up.

    Loving me some Lander.

  14. Woodguy says:

    John Chambers:
    The Oilers are in a similar position with Lander now than they were with Petry 3.5 years ago.

    They could bridge Lander for cheap to continue to ‘see’ if he’s an NHL player, or they could give the boy some nice security and also get him signed to a 4- or 5-year contract at a bargain.

    Sometimes you need to expose yourself to some semblance of risk …

    Agreed.

    You can do one more year then try for the home run after that.

    Assuming I’m not screwing up the RFA years thing.

  15. spoiler says:

    I see Krejci is out 4-6 weeks with a partially torn MCL. Wonder if the Bruins fold tent on the season.

    Also Bob McKenzie reports Timonen might play this weekend.

  16. Pouzar says:

    nqmt:
    am i the only one extremely excited about Slepyshev and Platzer? They look to be blooming at the right time

    No sir you are not.

  17. Lowetide says:

    Beanpot on TSN, O’Connor looks pretty good. Big fellow.

  18. G Money says:

    Per Spoiler’s comment, am reposting my nerd alert from the last thread (funny enough, I checked for a new thread before I started posting and there wasn’t one, so it all happened at the same time).

    *** NERD ALERT ***

    I continue various random experiments with Temporal Corsi (shot events and the relationship with timing between and time during game).

    Took me quite a while to get the scripts adequately battle hardened just to source the data, so at the moment what I’m doing with that data is mostly exploratory random stuff.

    The Eakins vs Nelson theme is an interesting one to explore. The fancy stats say one thing, the results say another.

    Even dedicated fancystaters (and I include myself in this) seem to perceive something visually better with Nelson. Yak’s joyous play is one thing of note, but so does there appear to be a degree of emotion with the entire team. Yet the stats say worse!

    So I’ve been exploring temporal Corsi to see if there is any resolving power that might add insight in this particular case. No conclusions as yet, but at least one interesting result. I will post four charts (2×2) for Nelson vs Eakins and will be interested to hear your comments, if any.

  19. G Money says:

    First comparison, 5×5 Corsi over Game for Eakins and Nelson. The idea here is to divide the game into buckets of 1 minute, and then display the net 5×5 corsi for ALL games in those buckets. (Specifically the % of events that occurred in that bucket, and whether that was to the good or to the bad).

    This should show things like how strong a team starts or finishes, good periods and bad, etc.

    So…

    Eakins: http://i.imgur.com/WPizUdH.png
    Nelson: http://i.imgur.com/gjfE1g5.png

    See anything meaningfully different?

    Neither do I.

    You can see the slightly more positive bias in Eakins’ numbers. You can also see how Eakins’ team starts a bit stronger but then has eight straight minutes of negative Corsi, which is probably what adds to the sense of a slow start. It’s not really a slow start, it seems to be just giving up goals easier.

    Not very interesting, other than it confirms what the overall shot measures are saying: Nelson’s team is not better than Eakins’ team, and arguably worse.

    Next up: goals.

  20. G Money says:

    I find the goals result a bit more interesting. Note that this is purely goals for, not goal differential like the previous charts. I wanted to peek into the offense a bit on this one.

    Eakins: http://i.imgur.com/BjAebcw.png
    Nelson: http://i.imgur.com/QzeCCXL.png

    I would call this result “interesting”. Not “definitive”. But interesting.

    Note how there is a marked difference in the character of the curves.

    Nelson’s team has certain points in the game where they score in bunches. Eakins’ distribution looks vaguely Saskatchewanie.

    Are we seeing the difference that ‘emotion’ makes in a game? Punches in bunches?

    Could be. Early days, small samples, blah blah blah.

    To have such a difference in the character of the graphs still seems interesting to me.

    Next time on NERD ALERT: will be looking at inter-shot Corsi timings. Confirm or disconfirm that Nelson’s team goes for ‘punches in bunches’ …

  21. G Money says:

    Also respond to Pouzar’s comment from last thread:

    Pouzar:
    Not trying to be a wise ass here but why are comparing the fancy stats under Eakins and Nelson?
    Has the latter even had Hall for a game? We know he hasn’t had Perron. What about NN?

    Anyways……….carry on.

    Indeed, we know that the rosters are different (e.g. Nelson has Roy and by association Yak, but no Hall).

    Not sure if you can argue one roster is weaker than the other, but
    a. the traditional fancy stats are weaker under Nelson, yet
    b. the results under Nelson are better, AND
    c. the visuals under Nelson are better, and
    d. whether those results are meaningful or ephemeral will presumably play a great deal into deciding the next coach of the Oilers, so

    … it is in fact (as the many posts on the topic prove) a question much on the minds of Oilerians.

  22. murray says:

    Can the oilers sign Houck and McCarron to ahl deals? Or is it standard elc or redraft for them.

  23. Broiler says:

    I was looking at other possible college free agents

    D Kenney Morrison 6’2” 205lbs Shoots R Age: 22 Junior,
    C/RW Casey Bailey 6’3” 194lbs shoots R Age: 23 Junior
    G Matthew O’Connor 6’6” 205lbs Catches L Age: 23,
    All jumped off the page at me, any reports or thoughts on these or others.

  24. Lowetide says:

    G Money: If I’m reading it right, and there’s no certainty of it, it looks like the Nelson team has a few more “Corsi-down” or negative trends that have clear sustain. I’d associate that with loss of possession and an inability to get back to do.

  25. Pouzar says:

    G Money:
    Also respond to Pouzar’s comment from last thread:

    Indeed, we know that the rosters are different (e.g. Nelson has Roy and by association Yak, but no Hall).

    Not sure if you can argue one roster is weaker than the other, but
    a. the traditional fancy stats are weaker under Nelson, yet
    b. the results under Nelson are better, AND
    c. the visuals under Nelson are better, and
    d. whether those results are meaningful or ephemeral will presumably play a great deal into deciding the next coach of the Oilers, so

    … it is in fact (as the many posts on the topic prove) a question much on the minds of Oilerians.

    Thank you. I am curious to see a healthy Hall under Nelson.
    Due diligence notwithstanding, I’d like to see Nelson get that chance next year. I’m a fan.

  26. G Money says:

    Lowetide,

    That’s exactly how I’d read it. The team goes through long stretches with no recovery of the puck. Bear in mind, this is averaged across all the games that the team has played under Nelson, so it makes for an interesting long pattern, as this is the “purely average” game an Edmonton Oiler team plays!

  27. Halfwise says:

    Lowetide:
    G Money: If I’m reading it right, and there’s no certainty of it, it looks like the Nelson team has a few more “Corsi-down” or negative trends that have clear sustain. I’d associate that with loss of possession and an inability to get back to do.

    They get back to d’oh way too often.

  28. spoiler says:

    G-Mon

    Does your tool have a “choke” function?

    I mean, are you able to identify rebound shot attempts and goals? Say events that happen within 5 seconds or less of each other.

    I am wondering if the team had more crease presence under Eakins or under Nelson.

    Edit: Oh and I should say this is a wonderful thing you have done, and thank you very much for it!

  29. Lowetide says:

    G Money:
    Lowetide,

    That’s exactly how I’d read it. The team goes through long stretches with no recovery of the puck.Bear in mind, this is averaged across all the games that the team has played under Nelson, so it makes for an interesting long pattern, as this is the “purely average” game an Edmonton Oiler team plays!

    Yeah, there’s clearly something here because that kind of trend is reflective of multiple games, opponents et cetera. In those moments of lost possession, I’d bet the longer you’re Corsi-down the better chance of a penalty or GA. This is excellent!

  30. RexLibris says:

    G Money,

    Interesting comparison.

    Eakins’ numbers look superior from a long-term perspective, and one would look at Nelson’s numbers and probably say that you are getting more high-event hockey going both ways.

    If these were stock portfolios you’d probably leverage more heavily in Eakins than Nelson over the long term and play the Nelson numbers on the side to see if you can get a few big scores.

    From the hockey perspective, though, I am concerned about some of what I’m seeing in the possession numbers with Nelson.

  31. speeds says:

    Halfwise:
    Pitlick is 6 years younger than Ryan Hamilton. Granted, Oiler management might conclude that he’s made of glass, but surely youth, speed and Shoots Right have to figure into things, no?

    This is not dissimilar from the argument to keep Lander ahead of Acton back at training camp, but EDM chose to waive Lander.

  32. spoiler says:

    G Money,

    Other than at the end of the game, doesn’t it look like the Oilers’ best goal-scoring bursts came when they were getting Corsi-hammered? Especially that goal spike in the middle of the 2nd, but before that too.

    Edit: I should add that I was looking at Nelly’s charts.

  33. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Woodguy,

    You’re not wrong.
    I think you go 2 years with Lander: $1M first year, $1.5M second.
    If Marincin would go for 2 years at $1.25M I think you have to do it.
    Yak due to draft pedigree is likely 2 years: $2.5M, $3M
    Schultz, man, he deserves about $2.5M on a one year, but it’s going to be $3.75M for one.

    The Oilers are still severely handcuffed unless they move out salary.

    I keep toying around but there isn’t even much cap room to improve the roster:

    Pouliot (4) – Nuge (6) – Eberle (6): 16M
    Hall (6) – Roy (2) – Yakupov (2.75): 10.75M
    Lander (1.25) – Sobotka (2.25) – Fehr (2.5): 6M
    Hendricks (1.85) – Gordon (3) – Klinkhammer (.75): 5.6M
    Gazdic (.875), Pitlick (.8): 1.675M
    40.025M

    Hjalmarsson (4.1) – Oduya (3) (the shutdown pair a la Chicago)
    Klefbom (.894) – Schultz (3.75) (the Oilers’ wannabe version of Keith-Seabrook with cushy o-zone starts)
    Marincin (1.25) – Petry (5)
    Aulie or spare (800)
    18.794M

    Scrivens 2.3M
    Enroth 3M
    5.5M

    Buyouts + salary retained:
    Purcell 1.5M
    Ference 1M
    Nikitin 1.5M
    4M

    Total 68.119M

    *** I don’t want people to get caught up in the individual names of the acquisitions. Your names and currencies may vary.
    Sign Oduya 3 x $3M (his current salary is $2.8M)
    Sign Eric Fehr 3 x $2.5M
    Sign Jonas Enroth: 2 x $3M
    Trade Pittsburgh’s 1st, + prospect not named Draisaitl or Nurse+ 2016 2nd for Hjalmarsson, which also helps bring Oduya on board. Use the threat of paying Seabrook $7.5M a year to coax Bowman into trading Hjalmarsson.
    Trade one of the 3rd rounders this year + prospect for the rights to Sobotka.
    Buy out Nikitin
    Trade Purcell with $1.5M retained for a late pick (or buy out at $1.5m)
    Trade Ference with $1M retained for a late pick (or buy out at $1.16M)

    You can argue you don’t want Oduya or don’t want Enroth, etc., etc. That’s fine. Swap some names around.

    I’m just giving an example of what a very small roster tweak would look like. That’s out: Ference, Purcell, Nikitin + two prospects, in: Hjalmarsson, Fehr, Oduya, Sobotka, Enroth

    5 bodies out, 5 bodies in.

    Question mark in goal, but otherwise the D looks much better to me and the forwards deeper.

  34. cahill says:

    Woodguy,

    I think one of MacT’s biggest failings is mismanaging the cap. For one of the worst teams they have little cap room, with the bad decisions on (Gagner, Nikitan & Ference).

    I would look to lock both Marincin and Lander up long term.

    For Lander. I think if you can get him signed to a 4 – 5 year deal this year you try and get it done.

    What about these three comps?

    Justin Abdelkader — 4 Years – 1.8
    Marcus Kruger – 2 Years – 1.325
    Zack Smith – 4 Years – 1.887
    Nick Bonino – 3 Years – 1.9

    All of those players had more of a track record than Lander when they signed those contracts. If you could get 4 – 5 years at less than 2 million it could be a value contract by the end of the term and it’s a fair deal for both sides. Would Lander sign a contract similar to Abdelkader or Smith?

  35. russ99 says:

    The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL":
    Woodguy,

    You’re not wrong.
    I think you go 2 years with Lander: $1M first year, $1.5M second.
    If Marincin would go for 2 years at $1.25M I think you have to do it.
    Yak due to draft pedigree is likely 2 years: $2.5M, $3M
    Schultz, man, he deserves about $2.5M on a one year, but it’s going to be $3.75M for one.

    The Oilers are still severely handcuffed unless they move out salary.

    I keep toying around but there isn’t even much cap room to improve the roster:

    Pouliot (4) – Nuge (6) – Eberle (6): 16M
    Hall (6) – Roy (2) – Yakupov (2.75): 10.75M
    Lander (1.25) – Sobotka (2.25) – Fehr (2.5): 6M
    Hendricks (1.85) – Gordon (3) – Klinkhammer (.75): 5.6M
    Gazdic (.875), Pitlick (.8): 1.675M
    40.025M

    Hjalmarsson (4.1) – Oduya (3) (the shutdown pair a la Chicago)
    Klefbom (.894) – Schultz (3.75)(the Oilers’ wannabe version of Keith-Seabrook with cushy o-zone starts)
    Marincin (1.25) – Petry (5)
    Aulie or spare (800)
    18.794M

    Scrivens 2.3M
    Enroth 3M
    5.5M

    Buyouts + salary retained:
    Purcell 1.5M
    Ference 1M
    Nikitin 1.5M
    4M

    Total 68.119M

    *** I don’t want people to get caught up in the individual names of the acquisitions. Your names and currencies may vary.
    Sign Oduya 3 x $3M (his current salary is $2.8M)
    Sign Eric Fehr 3 x $2.5M
    Sign Jonas Enroth: 2 x $3M
    Trade Pittsburgh’s 1st, + prospect not named Draisaitl or Nurse+ 2016 2nd for Hjalmarsson, which also helps bring Oduya on board. Use the threat of paying Seabrook $7.5M a year to coax Bowman into trading Hjalmarsson.
    Trade one of the 3rd rounders this year + prospect for the rights to Sobotka.
    Buy out Nikitin
    Trade Purcell with $1.5M retained for a late pick (or buy out at $1.5m)
    Trade Ference with $1M retained for a late pick (or buy out at $1.16M)

    You can argue you don’t want Oduya or don’t want Enroth, etc., etc. That’s fine. Swap some names around.

    I’m just giving an example of what a very small roster tweak would look like. That’s out: Ference, Purcell, Nikitin + two prospects, in: Hjalmarsson, Fehr, Oduya, Sobotka, Enroth

    5 bodies out, 5 bodies in.

    Question mark in goal, but otherwise the D looks much better to me and the forwards deeper.

    This is precisely why I disagree with MacT’s three players in quote.

    Five is much more like it, if we actually want to compete for 8th next season.

  36. G Money says:

    Taking the kids to swimming, will reply when I’m back!

  37. RexLibris says:

    It’d be pretty good timing if the Oilers were to fire their head amateur scout the same time that one of his early picks turns the corner and overcomes early meddling by management.

  38. RexLibris says:

    G Money:
    Taking the kids to swimming, will reply when I’m back!

    Just use Oilers-appropriate terminology: Schultz-ing it.

  39. fifthcartel says:

    Aaron Portzline @Aportzline
    Follow
    Heard from two different sources tonight that #CBJ are shopping D James Wisniewski around the #NHL, trying to move before Monday’s deadline

    https://twitter.com/Aportzline/status/570040506060832770

    One RHD out and another in?

    edit – Although, I’m not sure if they’re going to listen to Howson on another Columbus Blue Jacket defensemen.

  40. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Krejci out 4-6 weeks. What does Chiarelli do now?

  41. Melman says:

    The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL",

    If WG is right and Lander only has 3 years of control left then a 2 year deal puts the team in the same spot they were with Petry this summer. I think the play is either doing another 1 year show me what you got deal, or try for 4 at a number that sits under $2M

  42. Pajamah says:

    As long as 6’5″ O’Connor doesn’t have the same career path as 6’6″ Devan Dubnyk, I’m ok with that bet.

    Thank the gords Bakersfield is announced and we don’t have him as the 12th goalie on the Hamilton Bulldogs roster.

  43. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Melman,

    Good point. I missed that. Forgot he had his current one year deal after the ELC. So one year at 1.5m then?

  44. rickithebear says:

    Melman:
    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”,

    If WG is right and Lander only has 3 years of control left then a 2 year deal puts the team in the same spot they were with Petry this summer.I think the play is either doing another 1 year show me what you got deal, or try for 4 at a number that sits under $2M

    15-16 on: Player control:
    LW Hall 6M 5 years to summer 2020
    C RNH 6M 6 years to summer 2021
    RW Eberle 6M 4 years to summer 2019
    LW pouliot 4M 4 years to summer 2019
    ______________________________________
    RW Yakupov RFA 4 years summer 2019
    C Lander RFA 3 years summer 2018
    C Draisatl 3.4M ELC 7 years Summer 2022
    C Yakimov ELC 6 years summer 2021
    C khaira ELC 6 years Summer 2021
    Fayne 3.625M 3years summer 2018
    Schultz RFA 4 years summer 2019
    Marincin 4 years summer 2019
    Klefbom 5 years Summer 2020
    Nurse 7 years sumer 2022
    Musil 5 years summer 2020
    Gernat 5 years summer 2020
    Davidson 4 years summer 2019
    Brossoit 5 years summer 2020

  45. Gerta Rauss says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”,

    I may have missed it but I don’t see Fayne in your lineup

  46. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”,

    I may have missed it but I don’t see Fayne in your lineup

    Bah! I knew I was forgetting someone! Leave Oduya out and sub in Fayne, please. Get 625k more in cap space for our trade deadline playoff rental 😉

  47. Woodguy says:

    Melman:
    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”,

    If WG is right and Lander only has 3 years of control left then a 2 year deal puts the team in the same spot they were with Petry this summer.I think the play is either doing another 1 year show me what you got deal, or try for 4 at a number that sits under $2M

    Exactly.

  48. Melman says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”:
    Melman,

    Good point. I missed that. Forgot he had his current one year deal after the ELC. So one year at 1.5m then?

    I don’t think you’d have to go that high on a 1 year – he’s coming off $600K. $900-$1.1 ought to do it and then you’re starting from a lower point on the next one.

  49. Woodguy says:

    G Money:
    Per Spoiler’s comment, am reposting my nerd alert from the last thread (funny enough, I checked for a new thread before I started posting and there wasn’t one, so it all happened at the same time).

    *** NERD ALERT ***

    I continue various random experiments with Temporal Corsi (shot events and the relationship with timing between and time during game).

    Took me quite a while to get the scripts adequately battle hardened just to source the data, so at the moment what I’m doing with that data is mostly exploratory random stuff.

    The Eakins vs Nelson theme is an interesting one to explore. The fancy stats say one thing, the results say another.

    Even dedicated fancystaters (and I include myself in this) seem to perceive something visually better with Nelson. Yak’s joyous play is one thing of note, but so does there appear to be a degree of emotion with the entire team. Yet the stats say worse!

    So I’ve been exploring temporal Corsi to see if there is any resolving power that might add insight in this particular case. No conclusions as yet, but at least one interesting result. I will post four charts (2×2) for Nelson vs Eakins and will be interested to hear your comments, if any.

    Two things:

    1) Awesome work. You’re going to be able to query a lot of different situations. Looking forward to it.

    2) Happy vs. Unhappy vs Results:
    – I’ve never played for a NHL team, but there are the standard stories out there. Players hated Bowman for 364 days and like him on the day the won the Cup. Same stories for Babcock.

    -Its one thing for the above two to be that way, entirely another for a rookie head coach to be that way. A man who had accomplished nothing in the NHL besides making it there as a marginal player and assistant coach needs to build currency with the players, or come avec currency to get buy in with that demeanor and he starting spending currency before he made any.

    -Did it affect results? Had to. Players are people and when people don’t like to come to work their results can suffer, or at the very least not be too happy.

    -Was he better than Nelson? Could be. Samples are small, players are missing etc.

    -One thing that comes to mind though is that before I did my own thing I worked for a huge private (one family owned it) distribution/manufacturing business. They ran a very tight ship and their results were fantastic (+30%ROI routinely in the distribution business which can be brutal)

    -Its wasn’t a happy place to be, but it ran very tight and they worked their people hard. Lost a lot of people because of it, but the success kept coming because management didn’t change often and the message was always the same and constant.

    -Moral? I’m not sure player/employee happiness figures much into success. It has to at some level, but perhaps happiness can bred complacency too. Too comfortable. I’ve bitched often over the last 5+ years about handing roster spots to players and the culture that policy helps to foster.

    -Eakins didn’t have the track record to come in as hot as he did and made a ton of mistakes. I bet he can be a good coach and he learned a whole bunch in 1.5 years here.

  50. spoiler says:

    Melman: I don’t think you’d have to go that high on a 1 year – he’s coming off $600K.$900-$1.1 ought to do it and then you’re starting from a lower point on the next one.

    Agreed.

  51. RexLibris says:

    Ray Ferraro ‏@rayferrarotsn 38m38 minutes ago

    Great kid! “@TheChrisWescott: #Oilers prospect Joey LaLeggia named NCHC Dman of the Week for the 3rd week in a row & 5th time this season.”

  52. godot10 says:

    I see Dallas is out doing what Dallas does best. Sell Dallas. To paraphrase Dallas in the article: “It wasn’t my fault. I was great. It was their fault. They lost the games.”

  53. spoiler says:

    RexLibris:
    Ray Ferraro ‏@rayferrarotsn 38m38 minutes ago

    Great kid! “@TheChrisWescott: #Oilers prospect Joey LaLeggia named NCHC Dman of the Week for the 3rd week in a row & 5th time this season.”

    Still going to be a tough haul for him to make it… Jultz was putting up more offense than that 2 years younger. But good for the kid!

  54. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy,

    I think happiness in a working situation can be derived from a variety of places, though.

    It is kind of a general term that gets tossed around a lot.

    Do you go to work whistling every morning and staying late just because of the sheer joy in what you do? Then you are either one of the very, very few doing something so enjoyable, or are on a cocktail of prescription medication.

    You can be happy with your work without necessarily thinking of yourself as being happy at work. Again, depends on the circumstances. Challenges and achievement go a long way in that regard, in my experience.

    I don’t like to say that happiness either makes or breaks a workplace environment. I’d rather have it than not, but I don’t think it results in complacency any more than a modicum of success does.

    In so far as it applies to coaching, I’ve yet to see clear-cut evidence that a players’ coach or a dictatorial coach wins more than the other. In either case, it all hinges on good players.

  55. RexLibris says:

    spoiler: Still going to be a tough haul for him to make it…Jultz was putting up more offense than that 2 years younger. But good for the kid!

    The breaking news wasn’t about Laleggia.

    It was that Ferraro (perhaps inadvertently) said something nice in connection with the Oilers.

  56. Evilas says:

    G-Money,

    Interesting work.

    Could a measurement of “try” be quantified by rebound goals for/against, proximity to goal or “points in the paint” and number of goals scored that are deflected for/against? My thinking is that these types of goals are a fight for position both defensively and offensively. But you’ve likely taken this into consideration….

    Unrelated, but relevant, I think, it would also be interesting to see which team year over year gives up or receives the most own goals. As well the timing of these types of goals.

  57. speeds says:

    While we’re talking contracts, what, if anything, would you do (or do you think EDM will do) this summer with Klefbom?

    EDM went long term at that point with the 3 F’s, didn’t with Schultz but I think they’ll have an easier time finding common ground on a number with Klefbom if they look at it.

    Could go long term as they did with those 3, or potentially shorter term as PHI did with Couturier.

  58. Edmonton_fan says:

    Melman,

    There is nothing wrong with a Petry scenario with Lander since we are in a transition period with a lot of 3rd / 4th line forwards in the pipeline.

    The worst case scenario is that he gets a $1.25 million contract for two years & barely earns it. Then he refuses a newer long term contract so he signs one year & gets traded prior to the deadline. The best case scenario is that he earns & wants a competitive 3rd line contract three years from now.

    Lander’s resume shows there will be no interest from other teams right now. Why not take advantage & motivate him?

  59. Woodguy says:


    James Gordon @James_J_Gordon · 1h 1 hour ago
    I feel like the Flyers are just making up goalies at this point. “@BroadStBull: Emery injured; Flyers recall Stolarz http://po.st/44oqzh

    The Flyers are having goalies issues.

    Huh.

    That’s new.

  60. Woodguy says:

    Sunil Agnihotri is on 630 Ched right away with Reid Wilkens.

    Met him at the first Analytics Conference in Edmonton that was hosted by Rob Vollman.

    Great guy and very sharp.

  61. Woodguy says:

    RexLibris:
    Woodguy,

    I think happiness in a working situation can be derived from a variety of places, though.

    It is kind of a general term that gets tossed around a lot.

    Do you go to work whistling every morning and staying late just because of the sheer joy in what you do? Then you are either one of the very, very few doing something so enjoyable, or are on a cocktail of prescription medication.

    You can be happy with your work without necessarily thinking of yourself as being happy at work. Again, depends on the circumstances. Challenges and achievement go a long way in that regard, in my experience.

    I don’t like to say that happiness either makes or breaks a workplace environment. I’d rather have it than not, but I don’t think it results in complacency any more than a modicum of success does.

    In so far as it applies to coaching, I’ve yet to see clear-cut evidence that a players’ coach or a dictatorial coach wins more than the other. In either case, it all hinges on good players.

    I agree with all that and tried to posit both sides of that argument, but there is so many nuances I’d never be able to hit them all.

  62. Gerta Rauss says:

    Injury updates from the Oilers website

    Petry
    I’m hoping to be in the lineup against Minny. It was just a shot to the ribs, nothing was broken. Just bruised. It’s pretty sore to rotate but every day’s gotten a lot better and I didn’t have any issues today.

    Nelson on Yakupov
    Last game he tweaked something. He got through the game but we just shut him down (today) for precautionary reasons. He’s making the trip and we’ll see how he is tomorrow.

    Pitlick
    We’re trying to push it up to March 3. So hopefully I can get that scan, go on the road with the guys, do some practices and then by the time we get back from the road maybe get in a game

  63. Snowman says:

    The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL":
    Woodguy,

    You’re not wrong.
    I think you go 2 years with Lander: $1M first year, $1.5M second.
    If Marincin would go for 2 years at $1.25M I think you have to do it.
    Yak due to draft pedigree is likely 2 years: $2.5M, $3M
    Schultz, man, he deserves about $2.5M on a one year, but it’s going to be $3.75M for one.

    The Oilers are still severely handcuffed unless they move out salary.

    I keep toying around but there isn’t even much cap room to improve the roster:

    Pouliot (4) – Nuge (6) – Eberle (6): 16M
    Hall (6) – Roy (2) – Yakupov (2.75): 10.75M
    Lander (1.25) – Sobotka (2.25) – Fehr (2.5): 6M
    Hendricks (1.85) – Gordon (3) – Klinkhammer (.75): 5.6M
    Gazdic (.875), Pitlick (.8): 1.675M
    40.025M

    Hjalmarsson (4.1) – Oduya (3) (the shutdown pair a la Chicago)
    Klefbom (.894) – Schultz (3.75)(the Oilers’ wannabe version of Keith-Seabrook with cushy o-zone starts)
    Marincin (1.25) – Petry (5)
    Aulie or spare (800)
    18.794M

    Scrivens 2.3M
    Enroth 3M
    5.5M

    Buyouts + salary retained:
    Purcell 1.5M
    Ference 1M
    Nikitin 1.5M
    4M

    Total 68.119M

    *** I don’t want people to get caught up in the individual names of the acquisitions. Your names and currencies may vary.
    Sign Oduya 3 x $3M (his current salary is $2.8M)
    Sign Eric Fehr 3 x $2.5M
    Sign Jonas Enroth: 2 x $3M
    Trade Pittsburgh’s 1st, + prospect not named Draisaitl or Nurse+ 2016 2nd for Hjalmarsson, which also helps bring Oduya on board. Use the threat of paying Seabrook $7.5M a year to coax Bowman into trading Hjalmarsson.
    Trade one of the 3rd rounders this year + prospect for the rights to Sobotka.
    Buy out Nikitin
    Trade Purcell with $1.5M retained for a late pick (or buy out at $1.5m)
    Trade Ference with $1M retained for a late pick (or buy out at $1.16M)

    You can argue you don’t want Oduya or don’t want Enroth, etc., etc. That’s fine. Swap some names around.

    I’m just giving an example of what a very small roster tweak would look like. That’s out: Ference, Purcell, Nikitin + two prospects, in: Hjalmarsson, Fehr, Oduya, Sobotka, Enroth

    5 bodies out, 5 bodies in.

    Question mark in goal, but otherwise the D looks much better to me and the forwards deeper.

    This would be one hell of a summer.

    I predict, we still have Purcell, we still have Nikitin, we still have Ference, we don’t have Petry or Marincin, We do get an Oduya type. We do get an Enroth type. We do have either a Sobotka type or Roy. We also have Strome or Drai plus Lander in the lineup. Nurse too.

    This seems like a more realistic MacT summer. Some good moves. Some bad moves. Some missed opportunities. Some poor development of important future pieces and a top 6 draft pick next year.

    Rinse and repeat.

  64. Numenius says:

    Gerta Rauss: Petry
    I’m hoping to be in the lineup against Minny. It was just a shot to the ribs, nothing was broken. Just bruised. It’s pretty sore to rotate but every day’s gotten a lot better and I didn’t have any issues today.

    I’d love it if Petry’s the difference maker in the game tomorrow and the Oil win. It’d set up a nice contrast with the Minnie game they lost without him.

    If it does nothing else, it’d be a great way for him to go out.

  65. Melman says:

    spoiler: Still going to be a tough haul for him to make it…Jultz was putting up more offense than that 2 years younger. But good for the kid!

    Nice…so you’re saying the Oil will have 2 Norris candidates on the blue next year! Sssssuuuweeeeeeeett. Now we just need to convince Craig to re-sign Doobie

  66. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    Injury updates from the Oilers website

    Petry
    I’m hoping to be in the lineup against Minny. It was just a shot to the ribs, nothing was broken. Just bruised. It’s pretty sore to rotate but every day’s gotten a lot better and I didn’t have any issues today.

    Nelson on Yakupov
    Last game he tweaked something. He got through the game but we just shut him down (today) for precautionary reasons. He’s making the trip and we’ll see how he is tomorrow.

    Pitlick
    We’re trying to push it up to March 3. So hopefully I can get that scan, go on the road with the guys, do some practices and then by the time we get back from the road maybe get in a game

    Lander?

  67. Melman says:

    Snowman,

    Awesome summary. It’s almost like you’ve seen this movie before.

    Training camp roll call: “Rowbert, Rowbert…has anyone seen Rowbert”

  68. Gerta Rauss says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Lander?

    Not a word Bruce. It would suggest there is nothing new to report and/or progress

  69. Numenius says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Lander?

    Nelson suggested he’s week to week, so not for Minnie.

  70. Washingtron says:

    I was just reflecting on why we all see Nelson good and why the results are better despite the fancy stats being down. Could strategy have anything to do with it? In boxing you have your offensive fighters and your counter punchers. The counter punchers can have amazing results despite having lower compubox stats because they are REactive not proactive. Does that comparison hold any water? I have no idea. Wine and a reverse seared ribeye are clouding my already cloudy brain…

  71. jp says:

    Gerta Rauss: Not a word Bruce. It would suggest there is nothing new to report and/or progress

    Numenius: Nelson suggested he’s week to week, so not for Minnie.

    But has anything aside from the vague “won’t be back soon” and “shoulder” been reported?

  72. jp says:

    Pajamah:
    As long as 6’5″ O’Connor doesn’t have the same career path as 6’6″ Devan Dubnyk, I’m ok with that bet.

    Dubnyk had a hiccup last year, but he seems to have rebounded nicely. Over 200 games and a .911 career SV%. Lots of history still to be written. That’s damn sure worth a FA contract out of college.

  73. FTO says:

    jp: Dubnyk had a hiccup last year, but he seems to have rebounded nicely. Over 200 games and a .911 career SV%. Lots of history still to be written. That’s damn sure worth a FA contract out of college.

    After watching the Beanpot tonight I think I don’t mind his form at all but he definitely seems like he’d benefit from like two years in the AHL, he moves very fluid.

    And goddamn I wouldn’t mind Eichel on the team that’s for sure.

  74. Unicorns says:

    The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL",

    I like your line of thinking but
    197 188
    210 196
    203 198

    would be the smallest D core by far in the league. This might actually get some boys on the bus moved up the ladder and off hockey ops. I’m in. Imagine the fans and MSM.

    Seriously I’d be shocked if Hjarm and Oduya looked anything close to as effective on the Oilers. All those big top 6 forwards that can maintain O zone pressure and don’t need babysitting provide a lot of shelter to them. Oduya never looked particularly good before Chicago.

  75. Hammers says:

    Re those needing signed don’t you think its first evaluate then decide the offer and counter offer your prepared to make . Lander is perhaps a good example along the decisions made on Petry that clearly hasn’t worked due to improper evaluation . It has to be a 1 year or a 4-5 year contract offered . I go the 4-5 year escalating to price in final year for his next contract . 1 to 1.7 to 2.5 to 3 .2 to 4.1 that’s 12.5 over 5 years with a 2.5 average . That’s why Evaluating players is so important and my numbers maybe wrong but those are the type of deals needed once you think a player is wanted . Same with Marincin . Do all or some think these will be NHL players. Cap hit hurts first 2 years but your laughing the next 3 and that’s when we should be closer to a playoff team and have a higher cap to play with .This coming year is so important and in many ways .

  76. G Money says:

    spoiler: Does your tool have a “choke” function?
    I mean, are you able to identify rebound shot attempts and goals? Say events that happen within 5 seconds or less of each other.

    A lot of the script work was reconciling the NHL play by play data with the RTSS data to produce a single dataset with time, shot type, shot distance, and x,y coord. So at long last – the answer is yes!

    In fact, trying to find a metric that captures shot clusters is part of what I first set out to do with this whole temporal thing.

    Lowetide: Yeah, there’s clearly something here because that kind of trend is reflective of multiple games, opponents et cetera. In those moments of lost possession, I’d bet the longer you’re Corsi-down the better chance of a penalty or GA. This is excellent!

    Good idea – I should be able to annotate the charts with GF, GA and PA, might elicit some interesting patterns.

    RexLibris: Nelson’s numbers and probably say that you are getting more high-event hockey going both ways.

    Definitely part of what I’m trying to capture. More interesting than definitive results so far, but …

    spoiler: Other than at the end of the game, doesn’t it look like the Oilers’ best goal-scoring bursts came when they were getting Corsi-hammered? Especially that goal spike in the middle of the 2nd, but before that too.
    Edit: I should add that I was looking at Nelly’s charts.

    That’s an interesting observation – now it makes me wonder if maybe the reason for a low Corsi high PDO team is at least partially because of some good fortune in odd man breaks after long periods of being hemmed in. I’d swear that when TO and COL win, that’s the same effect. Same with CGY.

    Will have to run the GA/GF annotated charts with those teams and see if there’s any pattern.

  77. G Money says:

    Woodguy: Two things:
    1) Awesome work. You’re going to be able to query a lot of different situations. Looking forward to it.
    2) Happy vs. Unhappy vs Results:

    1 – Thanks. Note that i’m just experimenting at this point – if you have any thoughts on particular data linkages you’d be interested in seeing, make sure you mention it.

    2 – Yeah, big topic. I’ve seen some of the same things in the multitude of sizes of companies I’ve worked for and run. I think the key idea with what you described is you can have a ‘non happy’ but productive environment if you have relatively static jobs that can be effectively managed in the face of high turnover. The more complicated the job, the higher the cost of turnover, and the harder it is to be successful with a crappy culture.

    Evilas: Could a measurement of “try” be quantified by rebound goals for/against, proximity to goal or “points in the paint” and number of goals scored that are deflected for/against? My thinking is that these types of goals are a fight for position both defensively and offensively. But you’ve likely taken this into consideration….

    Absolutely. I do have x,y data and will be looking at time/space correlations (the project list is getting longer instead of shorter…)

    That said, the quick looks between Nelson and Eakins only slightly support the idea that the team is scoring more goals because of closer/more dangerous shots, so the answer is at least partially elsewhere I think.

    That’s why I’m testing the hypothesis that maybe he visual / scoreboard difference might be explained (again, partially) by clusters in time rather than just a closer distance.

  78. SwedishPoster says:

    One thing about comparing Nelson and Eakins numbers. Shouldn’t we compare with Eakins first year at the helm? Even that favours Eakins since he had a training camp to get his structure down.

    In my somewhat limited experience with coaching soccer the first thing you do is get to know the players, both personally and as players, put down a simple tactical structure, when that is done the key is to get buy in and maybe even more importantly, get good individual performances. Have your players playing well. Put them in situations they like and can be successful in.It’s ok with small tactical flaws early as long as the players are feeling it.

    When that is down you start tweaking the systems and coach more complex tactical ideas. Much easier to get players to listen to x’s and o’s if they already play in a system they understand and enjoy.

    Nelson has gotten the first part down pretty nicely. His players clearly enjoy playing for him and they play as a team. There’s a basic structure in place. He’s been able to put out some of Eakins tactical fires, F3 high, more active sticks in the D zone, the opponents still get away shots from danger areas but they are usually pressuring the shooters much better, better speed through the neutral zone and much better lanes in the offensive zone. His lines and pairings also makes more sense. Eakins was a bad evaluator of talent.

    The next part will be key for Nelson, his ability to make the tactical tweaks that makes this team better than its parts. If you have a good enough roster you can get results with just the first part down. With the Oilers roster not so much.
    In OKC his teams usually started out so so but eventually made the playoffs every season after a strong finish, that speaks to him being able to improve the team as the season progresses. Once he had a little less turnover in key positions, this season, the team started rolling right away.

    I think he is a good coach, might even be a great one, and I think the numbers will jive eventually. I certainly think he is deserving a full season next year to see what he’s got.

  79. Acumen says:

    I’ll be watching closely for word on Kenney Morrison. Oilers have been linked to him the last couple years, and need RHDs in the system more than they seem to know. Big shot, two way guy, numbers similar to Jeff Petry in college. Like him a lot.

  80. wheatnoil says:

    This is really interesting work G Money. Thanks for sharing it!

    In regards to those bunches of negative corsi, where the Oilers appear to be getting hemmed in their own zone, is it possible to know who is most commonly on the ice just for those periods of time? In addition to linking this data for goals for and against, as has been mentioned above, knowing the most common players during those periods would give us an idea of which players have a negative corsi because they’re being shelled and which players are more even and just have a continuous slow leak of corsi against.

    I remember Dellow had a bunch of data working on shifts where there was just 1 shot attempt and shifts were there were >1 shot attempts for or against. By looking at corsi temporally like you’ve done and linking it with players, you might be able to get similar data from a different vantage point, seeing which players are more likely to be hemmed in and which players are more likey to sustain zone pressure.

  81. wheatnoil says:

    We know that teams that win the possession battle (when adjusted for score) tend to win more games. I wonder if it matters how they win the possession battle. You could have Team A that averages out to a slow leak of corsi against through the whole game… relatively low event hockey, but give up more shot attempts than they get. You could also have Team B that is relatively high event, giving up shot attempts in bunches but then getting them back in bunches. Both Team A & Team B may have the same overall score-adjusted corsi.

    Currently, we’d assume that Team A and Team B would do equally well in the long-run, given they have the same score-adjusted corsi. However, with this data, G Money, you may be able to test that. Does high event hockey even out? Is it better to have a more even negative corsi distribution over the course of a game than it is to be more high event? In other words, does it matter you get your corsi, or does it just matter what it evens out to?

  82. Pouzar says:

    G Money,

    G excuse my non-nerd mind but are you able to track temporal data in terms of time elapsed between Corsi events(i.e. Shot quality)?

    Imo, shot quality is more than “where” the shot is takin from but “when” the shot is taken relative to the last Corsi event. I would LOVE to know, sample size notwithstanding, where Eakins/Nelson stand on this.

    Cheers and thanks for all your hard work.

  83. G Money says:

    wheatnoil: is it possible to know who is most commonly on the ice just for those periods of time? In addition to linking this data for goals for and against, as has been mentioned above, knowing the most common players during those periods would give us an idea of which players

    Yep, I have players-on-ice for each event. I bet it wouldn’t be too tough to filter just those extended multiple-negative-Corsi extents and correlate to player on ice. First guess is that we’d see a strong link with negative Corsi in general, but the exceptions (if any) would be the ones worthy of further analysis.

  84. G Money says:

    Pouzar: G excuse my non-nerd mind but are you able to track temporal data in terms of time elapsed between Corsi events(i.e. Shot quality)?
    Imo, shot quality is more than “where” the shot is takin from but “when” the shot is taken relative to the last Corsi event. I would LOVE to know, sample size notwithstanding, where Eakins/Nelson stand on this.

    Absolutely, I’m working on this now!

  85. rickithebear says:

    wheatnoil: This is really interesting work G Money. Thanks for sharing it!

    I read the coles notes on Temporal Data.

    A BI temporal system with time based Corsi and Elevation goal targeting.

    In partnership with anchor modeling seems to be the perfect method for corsi to goal analysis.

    Beautiful Work!

  86. russ99 says:

    wheatnoil:
    We know that teams that win the possession battle (when adjusted for score) tend to win more games. I

    Not necessarily, good possession numbers could be an indicator of better talent and coaching, or in Eakins’ case, a strategy of playing for possession that added up to possession but didn’t add up to wins.

    Teams that score more goals than the opponent wins games. And at times, as our recent numbers have shown, that sometimes goes against the possession metrics.

    I’d love to see someone use numbers to disprove the Fenwick + PDO = winning theory, with some form of balance for overall talent level and shot quality built in.

    Maybe Fenwick + PDO carries more weight with two fairly equal teams playing the same possession-heavy strategies against each other. Otherwise, there’s too many different factors and events in a hockey game to sum it all up with one theory using only three distinct statistics: shots, save percentage and shooting percentage.

    I know the one of the best reasons to use advanced stats is to come to conclusions, but we’re taking possession = winning and cycling = goals (which really is a market inequality with the Kings and Bruins utilizing specific types of player skillsets to accomplish this) too much at face value. It maybe a hot theory at a time when too many teams are copying the Bruins, Kings and Predators, but that doesn’t mean it should be taken as fact, or that it’s not OK to question those conclusions.

  87. Pouzar says:

    G Money: Absolutely, I’m working on this now!

    This would be epic. Imo, this is the holy grail.

    Thx again!

  88. godot10 says:

    wheatnoil:
    We know that teams that win the possession battle (when adjusted for score) tend to win more games. I wonder if it matters how they win the possession battle.

    Correlation does not necessarily equal causation.

    Teams that win more games tend to win the possession battle.

    Chicken and egg. We don’t know which causes which, if either. We just know that they tend to be correlated.

    Correlations that fail to materialize suggest that there is an underlying unknown that is not being met.

    Eakins had better Corsi, but it was not confirmed in wins and losses. It was not confirmed in player development. It was not confirmed in goaltender performance. Shooting percentages lagged for extended periods. Nothing confirmed the better Corsi. And since Corsi is only a correlation with winning and not necessarily the causation, Corsi unconfirmed by other factors suggests a false positve. That there is an undelying failure of a yet to be identified factor.

  89. Pouzar says:

    godot10: Correlation does not necessarily equal causation.

    Teams that win more games tend to win the possession battle.

    Chicken and egg.We don’t know which causes which, if either.We just know that they tend to be correlated.

    Correlations that fail to materialize suggest that there is an underlying unknown that is not being met.

    Eakins had better Corsi, but it was not confirmed in wins and losses.It was not confirmed in player development.It was not confirmed in goaltender performance.Shooting percentages lagged for extended periods.Nothing confirmed the better Corsi.And since Corsi is only a correlation with winning and not necessarily the causation, Corsi unconfirmed by other factors suggests a false positve.That there is an undelying failure of a yet to be identified factor.

    This is why I think Shot quality as measured by time between Corsi Events is so important. Let’s use the benchmark of High quality Corsi event as an event that happens within 4 seconds or less after the previous event (Fangda Li – http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2014/10/16/6986961/nhl-data-mining-part-1-shot-quality-and-inter-arrival-times-between).
    Then using this benchmark, lets see what percentage of each coaches overall Corsi is made up of the higher quality of shot attempts.

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