WHERE IS PETRY GOING?

We’re a week away from the trade deadline but the fact is Jeff Petry could be traded at any time now. The rib shot probably means we won’t see him again as an Oiler and I imagine the Penguins, Ducks, Canadiens, Red Wings, Lightning and others are still vying for his services. I have a feeling the Oilers will acquire a Dumoulin or a Sproul as opposed to a high draft pick, in hopes they can bring the new hire in and not miss a beat. That’s my guess, anyway.

This is a bad turn for Oilers fans. First Steve Tambellini and now Craig MacTavish were unable to get this young man signed. MacT said earlier in the season that this organization had to get more out of their second-round picks, suggesting the scouting needed to get much better. Fast forward to today and the best second rounder in recent memory is being shot out of a cannon. You can say ‘he was never going to sign here anyway!’ and maybe that’s true but I’m giving no quarter to management on that one. Whatever the reason Jeff Petry is leaving, whatever the reason he isn’t going to sign, I blame management. What a silly damn thing to do. Honestly.

POSSIBLE RETURN

  • Detroit: Jim Matheson suggested Ryan Sproul awhile back, also speculating about Tomas Jurco in a bigger deal. Source
  • Pittsburgh: Lots of names here, from Tristan Jarry to Brian Dumoulin.
  • Anaheim: No clear candidates, maybe Nicolas Kerdiles?
  • Los Angeles: The Kings have a kid named Colin Miller who is interesting, suspect Derek Forbort is unavailable.
  • Tampa Bay: I don’t have any idea who the Oilers might be looking for from the Lightning.
  • Montreal: Zachary Fucale is struggling badly but perhaps Edmonton still carries a flame.
  • New York Islanders: Oilers liked Scott Mayfield in his draft year.
  • Chicago: I don’t know. Mark McNeill?

We’ll see. It could be just a pick but it does appear momentum is gathering around Petry as an option. The return will not match the rental, there’s no first-round pick coming and even if it was this is-should be a different time in the rebuild. Edmonton management is far too comfortable with moving back the timeline. Beyond ridiculous. I didn’t like it when they dealt Penner for crying out loud and Oscar Klefbom is now in the NHL! There’s no way to defend trading Jeff Petry because it means 2015-16 isn’t important.

And that my friends is beyond the pale. When Jeff Petry gets traded, the acid from every corner should and will be squarely on the Edmonton Oilers management. What an incredibly disappointing season.

LOWETIDE TOP 10, 2015 DRAFT

 

  1. (1)C Connor McDavid, Erie Otters (OHL) 9GP, 8-15-23 in February
  2. (2)C Jack Eichel, Boston U (NCAA) 6GP, 1-8-9 in February
  3. (5)R Mitch Marner, London Knights (OHL) 7GP, 5-10-15 in February
  4. (3)C Dylan Strome, Erie Otters (OHL) 9GP, 3-8-11 in February
  5. (4)D Noah Hanifin, Boston College (NCAA) 5GP, 0-5-5 in February
  6. (6) D Ivan Provorov, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL) 3GP, 1-1-2 in February
  7. (7) D Oliver Kylington, Farjestad (SHL) DNP in February (playing in lower league)
  8. (11) D Zach Werenski, Michigan (NCAA) 5GP, 2-1-3 in February
  9. (8) C Nick Merkley, Kelowna Rockets (WHL) 9GP, 1-8-9 in February
  10. (10) R Timo Meier, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL) 8GP, 9-5-14 in February

AM OIL

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

 

 

At 10 this morning, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Scott Burnside, ESPN. Heavily on the trade deadline side, we’ll also talk about Hockey Day yesterday across America.
  • Corey Pronman, ESPN. 2015 draft (send your questions in) we’ll focus on Hanifin and maybe a deadline name or two.
  • Dennis King, Oilogosphere Icon. Jeff Petry trade, weekend struggles.
  • Corey Graham, TSN1260 Oil Kings PBP. OK had a strong game yesterday and a massive crowd to see it.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide_ on twitter. It’s Monday but it’s going to be fun!

 

 

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145 Responses to "WHERE IS PETRY GOING?"

  1. Ben says:

    They should look at trading this year’s 1st for two 1sts in 2016, which can then be potentially flipped for four 1sts in 2017.

    That’s good value.

  2. Ca$h-Money! says:

    I’ll be so pissed if they trade for Fucale. The only reasonable way to justify his draft ranking is if he was making the majority of the outlet passes to Mackinnon and Drouin.

    He’s the poster child for the worst form of old school goalie analysis. MOAR WINS.

  3. frjohnk says:

    Once Petry is traded we are going to be disappointed with the return.

    If a body is coming back, Id guess it would be recent 2nd and 3rd picks. But most likely nobody that is blowing off the doors.

    My guess is that the return does not turn into a useful NHL player.

    But Id love to be surprised.

  4. supernova says:

    For some reason I think Petry goes to Tampa, outside shot to Anaheim.

    I think both teams think they have a legit chance at being a Stanley cup finalist.

    It’s a damn shame in asset management and development. I am not even the biggest Petry supporter but I loath the idea of this type of trade purely from development and procurement.

    I blame the cap guy for mishandling negotiations, and the GMs.

    Even if Petry was unwilling to sign this year, they didn’t negotiate at any point properly in the last 3 seasons in handling the asset correctly.

    Kudos to Petry and his agent because they handled it well.

  5. Ca$h-Money! says:

    I don’t understand the gap between his value as a rental and the estimated contract for next year. If we trade him we get a sub Murray return, if we sign him it’s going to be really expensive. Has anyone ever looked at trade returns for UFAs and subsequent contracts awarded?

  6. oliveoilers says:

    Not only do they have an inability to judge defensive talent, it seems they also have an inability to judge the trade market. How many time has MacT said “there aren’t any deals out there” only for a hockey trade a few days later. I think it’s clear that he thinks Klef replaces Petry and Nurse will be called up next season similar to Klef. If only he could make the monumental leap in his line of logic to “what if we had Klef, Nurse AND Petry?” I don’t think it yet extends to available competent RH shot D. When we’re crying out for one next season, he’ll think “oh, now I get the pissiness about Petry leaving.”

    People think a decent goalie will solve our problems? How’s NJ doing…..Because that’s who we will be if we get a good goalie – a bad team with a good goalie. It’d be a step in the right direction though.

    Seems the tank is on…..for next year. That’s why Buffalo will always be tank amateurs; they just don’t tank far enough ahead.

    I’m not sure about the Edmonton Oilers making decisions based on things other than winning; I think they’re based on what colour their underwear is cross referenced with a magic 8 ball.

  7. kinger_OIL says:

    While I am far from convinced that it will happen, if at the beginning of next season, the money that was used on Petry gets used on the same or better D, and some more money gets used to do like NYI did last year, and pry another good D from a cap team, you would have to give MacT kudos: losing Petry for rest of season helps the tank job this year, you get an asset for him, and next season you have a solid D corps. That’s my line in the sand. If we don’t have two Petry or better at start of next season on D, MacT deserves to be dismissed for cause.

  8. supernova says:

    Here is a link to a exceptional site for Tampa Bay prospects.

    http://www.boltprospects.com/prospects

    I would try for ;

    DeAngelo
    Erne
    Point

    And obviously Vasilesky.

    Erne and Point are probably close to the value that Petry would go for.

    Erne have a strong season and he has the size that GMs covet
    Point looks like a decent prospect

    Deangelo scores like crazy from the Back end especially since joining Nurse in the Soo.

    Don’t see them trading the young Goalie but that might be a bigger type deal, possibly one that would normally be a offseason plan, but with the rumours of Oilers interested in Martin Jones, Subban, and Lehner. It fits the bigger plan, if Tampa is desperate maybe we see a bigger deal.

    Pitt 1st, Petry, … For Vasilesky

  9. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Keep an eye on Barzal in Seattle on the prospect list. He is catching fire at the right time and handily outscoring everyone on his team (he has very little help). Not saying he’s an Oiler target by any means, just that we could be talking about him as a Top 10 pick in about a month if he keeps this up.

  10. Kitchener says:

    Whatever the Petry return becomes, let’s agree to not get mad at that player. It isn’t his fault Petry left town.

  11. slopitch says:

    If they must move him, I like the idea of using Petry to target a goalie. While D has the most holes, goaltending can make the biggest difference. In terms of organizational depth, the Oilers are fairly well stocked on d prospects (not to be confused with NHL dmen) and adding a quality G is as important as any of the GMs tasks btw now and fall.

    Interesting that NHL.com has Eberle as a potential player to be moved at the deadline. I dont see that happening.

    Drai is really heating up. Could he follow a Getzlaf career path? Would need to finish closer to 2 ppg in the WHL season to do so and follow it up with 40 dominant games in the AHL. Watching him play, I think he could do it. Obviously Getzlaf would be the upper end of the comparables but the decision to move him back to the WHL looks spot on. Also 23 pts in 9 games in Feb for McDavid is unreal. Lordy.

  12. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    slopitch: Interesting that NHL.com has Eberle as a potential player to be moved at the deadline. I dont see that happening.

    I asked Dan Rosen about that.

    Mostly because… how do a team like Boston (he named them as interested) take on Eberle’s contract at the deadline and still manage their cap situation… He said they’d offload salary in the deal…

    But, what big contracts do the Oilers want that the Bs are willing to give up in-season?

    I can’t think of any… unless they’ve gone from “untouchable” to “hockey trade” status on Lucic.

  13. McSorley33 says:

    LT you have been all over this Petry debacle and it has been your best work imo.

    Beyond the pale….well put.

  14. slopitch says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Ya. The only way I could see the Oilers moving Ebs is for a stud dman (think Hamilton). So if it were Eberle for Hamilton, how much salary would we have to take back? Don’t see it working. With Ference and Nikitin contracts and the slipping dollar/season ticket renewals, I don’t see Oilers being able to take on a ton of dead money.

    The Petry move needs to address one of the holes next year (2C or G). A package for ROR seems intriguing. I like the player although Im not sure his 34 pts in 60 games warrants 6 million per. I also like Petry for Jones (I put money on the Kings to win the cup at +4000). Although after trading them Penner, Stoll and Green, its time that this Lombardi guy starts reciprocating.

    Also LT. Travolta is creeping on Scarlett. Shes spoken for by this entire blog. We shoudnt stand for this.

  15. Hammers says:

    McSorley33:
    LT you have been all over this Petry debacle and it has been your best work imo.

    Beyond the pale….well put.

    Maybe , but waiting to see what actually happens seems more fitting.

  16. frjohnk says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: I asked Dan Rosen about that.

    Mostly because… how do a team like Boston (he named them as interested) take on Eberle’s contract at the deadline and still manage their cap situation… He said they’d offload salary in the deal…

    But, what big contracts do the Oilers want that the Bs are willing to give up in-season?

    I can’t think of any… unless they’ve gone from “untouchable” to “hockey trade” status on Lucic.

    Boston is absolutely effed if the salary cap is only 72Million.

    They have 11 guys signed for 54M ( this includes Savards cap hit), which means they need to sign 12 guys for 17M with notable RFA’s like Hamilton, Smith, Krug.

    I don’t think they would be looking for a guy like Eberle whose salary cap hit is $6M.

    They need guys on value contracts or guys looking at bridge contracts.

  17. rickithebear says:

    (1)C Connor McDavid, Erie Otters (OHL) 9GP, 8-15-23 in February
    9GM 6 EVG 6 EVA 1.3333 EVP/gm
    1.33 X .58 Age NHLE 62 EVP
    35% PP 33 PPP + 62EVP 95P player
    40% PP 41 PP + 62EVP 103 PT player

    (5)R Mitch Marner, London Knights (OHL)
    January Pre inj:
    9gm 4EVG 11 EVA +7 1.67 EVPPG
    88 EVP NHLE
    35% 47 PPP + 88 135 pt NHLE

    7GP, 5-10-15 in February
    GM1-3 back from INJ 1PPG 0A -4
    Gm 4-7 Back from Injury
    4gm 3EVG 3EVA +6
    1.50 PPG EVP
    79 EVP
    35% PP 42 PPP + 79 121 PT NHLE
    40% PP 52 PPP + 54 131 PT NHLE

    Marner since Game 10
    42gm 25 EVG 33 EVA 1.38
    75 EVP NHLE
    35% 40 PPP + 75 115 PT NHLE
    40 % PP 50 PPP + 79 125 pt NHLE
    this is a crazy deep draft.

  18. jake70 says:

    ” First Steve Tambellini and now Craig MacTavish were unable to get this young man signed. ”

    LT, I browsed some posts from 2012 regarding the Petry signing. You and others (including me) were quite positive about the deal signed by Tambellini at that time (1.7M per year x2). Now, it’s easy for me to cherrypick, didn’ t search out if there were any negative comments. One of your comments was that Petry should fire his agent for that deal. I am guessing you are referring to the term (not cap hit) and Tambellini’s inability to buy UFA years at a decent cap hit?

  19. Hammers says:

    I see Marner has taken a huge leap in your picks but I still think Strome is the one unless we get lucky enough to win the lottery . Also the odds still favor 1 of the bottom 4 winning that 1st overall pick . If so any in your top 5 could fit into this team . Choice of one of 3 “C” , 1″D” & 1 RW .

  20. supernova says:

    jake70:
    ” First Steve Tambellini and now Craig MacTavish were unable to get this young man signed. ”

    LT, I browsed some posts from 2012 regarding the Petry signing.You and others (including me) were quite positive about the deal signed by Tambellini at that time (1.7M per year x2).Now, it’s easy for me to cherrypick, didn’ t search out if there were any negative comments.One of your comments was that Petry should fire his agent for that deal. I am guessing you are referring to the term (not cap hit)and Tambellini’s inability to buy UFA years at a decent cap hit?

    jake70,

    Oilers also had the oppurtunity the last 2 summers to negotiate longer deals.

    The original deal was short sighted in that it left Petry with term control with one year to go to UFA.

  21. Hammers says:

    jake70:
    ” First Steve Tambellini and now Craig MacTavish were unable to get this young man signed. ”

    LT, I browsed some posts from 2012 regarding the Petry signing.You and others (including me) were quite positive about the deal signed by Tambellini at that time (1.7M per year x2).Now, it’s easy for me to cherrypick, didn’ t search out if there were any negative comments.One of your comments was that Petry should fire his agent for that deal. I am guessing you are referring to the term (not cap hit)and Tambellini’s inability to buy UFA years at a decent cap hit?

    Yea and that’s where the real problem started , Tambo not buying UFA years . Any player agent should sign for 1 year when that’s all that’s left before free agency . I have said this all year .

  22. Lowetide says:

    jake70:
    ” First Steve Tambellini and now Craig MacTavish were unable to get this young man signed. ”

    LT, I browsed some posts from 2012 regarding the Petry signing.You and others (including me) were quite positive about the deal signed by Tambellini at that time (1.7M per year x2).Now, it’s easy for me to cherrypick, didn’ t search out if there were any negative comments.One of your comments was that Petry should fire his agent for that deal. I am guessing you are referring to the term (not cap hit)and Tambellini’s inability to buy UFA years at a decent cap hit?

    Both GMs had an opportunity to buy free-agent seasons iirc. Both did not

  23. jake70 says:

    supernova: jake70,

    Oilers also had the oppurtunity the last 2 summers to negotiate longer deals.

    The original deal was short sighted in that it left Petry with term control with one year to go to UFA.

    Would be interesting to know what terms and cap hits went back and forth in 2012 between the club and agent during negotiations.

  24. GCW_69 says:

    If I understand the CBA correctly, you can sign an extension once your existing contract has one year left. The Oilers could have, and should have, signed Petry to an extension the summer or 2013. Petry was early enough in his career that dangling a long term extension then would have been very hard to turn down. And the Oilers went from 1.5 years of history (at the time tambo signed him) to 2.5 years at that point, and should have known what they had and have had a reasonable view of the upside and downside risk.

    I would bet a number starting with 4 and term of 4 to 6 years would have (easily) gotten the deal done in 2013.

    Missed opportunity is the life’s blood of the Oilers.

  25. Lowetide says:

    Hammers:
    I see Marner has taken a huge leap in your picks but I still think Strome is the one unless we get lucky enough to win the lottery . Also the odds still favor 1 of the bottom 4 winning that 1st overall pick . If so any in your top 5 could fit into this team . Choice of one of3 “C” , 1″D” & 1 RW .

    I think Oilers list is McDavid, Eichel, Hanifin, Strome

  26. Alpine says:

    supernova,

    I wouldn’t be surprised if Stevie Y values Vasilevsky like we value Hall/RNH. He’s not a 1OV and he’s a goalie (voodoo), but as far goalies go he’s as good a prospect you’ll find. He has pieces in every position so I doubt he’s desperate to pick up spare parts. With such a young team I doubt he’s going all in THIS year, and as borderline East favourites already, it makes sense to keep both Bishop and Vas for playoff runs if either gets hurt or drops off.

  27. TheOtherJohn says:

    I would love Dougie Hamilton or Brett Burns but if Boston and SJS are blowing it up aren’t those the type of assets that you want to keep to build around? Thornton and Marleau both have NMC and have said they aren’t waiving it

    Mark McNeil is the type of player that Chicago has to keep (very low cost) because of the Kane/Toews contracts

    Could see boht Little Joe and Patrick Sharp moved out of SJS and Chicago

    Too bad Oilers have such a y high payroll because some low payroll teams are going to be able to cherry pick and get some good players cheap. Think Calgary and Winnipeg could acquire some players this way

    Hard to ignore Marner ( I really like him) but so long as we keep our same core not sure we can acquire another smaller forward

  28. GCW_69 says:

    Hammers: Yea and that’s where the real problem started , Tambo not buying UFA years . Any player agent should sign for 1 year when that’s all that’s left before free agency . I have said this all year .

    There was an arguement to be made when Petry was signed by Tambo that they only had about 1.5 years of history on Petry and it was difficult to judge his long term worth. While I would have taken the risk I can understand why they signed the shorter term deal. The Oilers left the door open to begin negotiating as early as July 1, 2013, which was also reasonable.

    its that they wasted the summer of 2013 and the rest of the 2013/14 season by not negotiating that I find to be the big mistake.

  29. AZOIL says:

    Is that backup goalie for anaheim still a goalie worth looking at? John Gibson? I remember last year he was a hot topic and with Anaheim having a solid number one is Gibson someone that could be had? Or is he a gamble like Scrivens?

  30. Klima's_Bucket says:

    What happened in Marner’s first 10 games. Everyone here and elsewhere keeps discrediting his first 10 games. Did he play the first 10 games with one arm tied behind his back or was he on the 4th line? Why was he so terrible at the start of the season that everyone discredits his first 10 games?

  31. GCW_69 says:

    Alpine:
    supernova,

    I wouldn’t be surprised if Stevie Y values Vasilevsky like we value Hall/RNH. He’s not a 1OV and he’s a goalie (voodoo), but as far goalies go he’s as good a prospect you’ll find. He has pieces in every position so I doubt he’s desperate to pick up spare parts. With such a young team I doubt he’s going all in THIS year, and as borderline East favourites already, it makes sense to keep both Bishop and Vas for playoff runs if either gets hurt or drops off.

    Offer him Petry, Fasth, and Nurse/Leon for Vasilevsky and a 2nd round pick and see if he turns it down.

  32. Ca$h-Money! says:

    GCW_69,

    I wouldn’t offer Nurse/Leon straight accros for any unproven goalie. That’s career suicide for a GM if it doesn’t pan out.

  33. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    GCW_69: Offer him Petry, Fasth, and Nurse/Leon for Vasilevsky and a 2nd round pick and see if he turns it down.

    Talk about robbing Peter to pay Paul. Oilers have too many holes all over the lineup at both D and C to make that trade right now.

  34. frjohnk says:

    TheOtherJohn: Too bad Oilers have such a y high payroll because some low payroll teams are going to be able to cherry pick and get some good players cheap. Think Calgary and Winnipeg could acquire some players this way

    If Oilers sign Schultz to 3.8M, Yak to 2M, Lander 1M, Marincin 1M, Roy 1.5M

    That would be 20 guys signed for 60.5M. ( Draisaitl, Nurse, and 2015 pick not on roster, no buyouts)

    That would put us in the “not too hot, not too cold” area for payroll.

    Still would need a
    top pairing D man
    number 1 goalie
    forward ( maybe a OKC player could make the jump)

    But yeah, Buffalo, Colorado, Calgary, Dallas, Ottawa have loads of room

  35. Taro Tsujimoto says:

    I think it’s safe to say Detroit isn’t happening, especially if Sproul is the ask. Kronwall and Ericsson are attached at the hip, and DeKeyser-Quincey has been their steadiest pairing. That means Petry is a third-pairing defenseman on their roster. And even then, they have Smith, Kindl (two goals against Dallas on Saturday), and three young studs in Ouellet, Marchenko, and Sproul. Are they going to part with one of those young studs (each at least as good as Klefbom) and then pay big money in the summer (because if they’re giving up a young stud, it means they want Petry long-term) for a guy who probably doesn’t bring them much closer to a Cup? It’s a sobering thought, but the Oilers’ best defenseman, the Oilers’ one great homegrown success story of the past decade or so, a guy with solid Michigan ties…he probably fetches, at most, Kindl and a 3rd from Detroit, and slots in on their bottom pairing.

    This is why I admire the Wings. They do things the right way and they never find themselves in a hole like the one the Oilers have dug thenselves with Jeff Petry. Even top teams like Boston, LA, Chicago – they’re running into some cap troubles. Granted, small price to pay for winning the Cup. But the word is consistency. The Wings are going to keep making the playoffs and contending. Boston’s window might already be more or less closed.

  36. russ99 says:

    For the cap-strapped teams, we have to send them something cheap and good.

    That’s why I’m most worried about Yak and Marincin at the deadline…

  37. TheOtherJohn says:

    frjohnk,

    If is the largest word in English language.

    If Oilers sign Schultz to $4.25m, Yak to $3.0m Lander and Marincin for $2.5m between them and Roy at $2.0

    That puts our payroll at $64.25m and, as you say, would still need a
    top pairing D man
    number 1 goalie
    forward ( maybe a OKC player could make the jump)

    With a 29th place team

    Calgary and Winnipeg have revenue that would allow them to spend $$ and acquire players. with goodly contarcts. Not sure of that with Buffalo, Col and Dallas

  38. stush18 says:

    Taro Tsujimoto,

    Theyve been my favourite team since my grandpa got me hooked on them. History, class, and accountabilty throughout the organziation.

    My favorite forward, goalie, and defenseman are all wings too

  39. oilspillcali says:

    Wait so if eberle is traded away i would defintely look at marner as our first pick! The guy is pretty much a smallish eberle that looks a little better in the goal scoring department. But if eberle doesnt go it has to be one of the big three centres, the second forst rounder should be kept i think i wouldnt trade it away unless we are moving it up for another higher pick plus someone else like a prospect in a package deal with petry or someone else.

  40. supernova says:

    Alpine:
    supernova,

    I wouldn’t be surprised if Stevie Y values Vasilevsky like we value Hall/RNH. He’s not a 1OV and he’s a goalie (voodoo), but as far goalies go he’s as good a prospect you’ll find. He has pieces in every position so I doubt he’s desperate to pick up spare parts. With such a young team I doubt he’s going all in THIS year, and as borderline East favourites already, it makes sense to keep both Bishop and Vas for playoff runs if either gets hurt or drops off.

    Alpine,

    I agree it is unlikely but you make him an offer if you are discussing trade options.

    Tampa actually has a lot of assets. They have 2 firsts and a good stable of prospects.

    An underlying thing as always is that Stamkos is getting close to renewal. Stamkos is at the age he wants to win and can demand top dollar anywhere. It ia important Tampa not only pays but also is vey competitive.
    It is unlikely Stamkos would leave but he is in the prime of his career, many teams would move many contracts to gain the cap space for an oppurtunity for Stamkos to play for them.

  41. supernova says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    frjohnk,

    If is the largest word in English language.

    If Oilers sign Schultz to $4.25m, Yak to $3.0m Lander and Marincin for $2.5m between them and Roy at $2.0

    That puts our payroll at $64.25m and, as you say, would stillneed a
    top pairing D man
    number 1 goalie
    forward ( maybe a OKC player could make the jump)

    With a 29th place team

    Calgary and Winnipeg have revenue that would allow them to spend $$ and acquire players. with goodly contarcts. Not sure of that with Buffalo, Col and Dallas

    TheOtherJohn,

    I think your renewal contracts are on the high side.

    Not sure how Yak and Schultz can get those contracts based on this season.

    I get you are going on the high side but They would have to have a really good last quarter to earn those.

    Also agree the roster is not very good for a high cap hit.

    Thats why there is lots of talk about buyouts on here.
    NIkitin, Ference, Purcell

  42. supernova says:

    jake70: Would be interesting to know what terms and cap hits went back and forth in 2012 between the club and agent during negotiations.

    It would be interesting.

    I suspect even if he was willing to sign longer he was getting advice to hit free agency on the south side of 30.

  43. rickithebear says:

    Are edmonton not positioned to have Value contracts roll in at critical top 6 and top 4 dump points.

    15-16 on:
    LW Hall 6M 5 years to summer 2020
    C RNH 6M 6 years to summer 2021
    RW Eberle 6M 4 years to summer 2019
    LW pouliot 4M 4 years to summer 2019
    ______________________________________
    RW Yakupov RFA 4 years summer 2019
    C Lander RFA 3 years summer 2018
    C Draisatl 3.4M ELC 7 years Summer 2022
    C Yakimov ELC 6 years summer 2021
    C khaira ELC 6 years Summer 2021

    Fayne 3.625M 3years summer 2018
    Schultz RFA 4 years summer 2019
    Marincin 4 years summer 2019
    Klefbom 5 years Summer 2020
    Nurse 7 years sumer 2022
    Musil 5 years summer 2020
    Gernat 5 years summer 2020
    Davidson 4 years summer 2019

    Brossoit 5 years summer 2020

    These players have a peer history that says 90% chance NHL player.

    they have to go against peer trend to fail.

    Slepyshev
    Nagelvoort
    Lagesson
    laleggia
    these 4 peer trend as well.
    need to sign

    when looking a euro players.
    18 and 19 in euro league.
    20 yr in AHL/NHL
    6 years left of control

    NCAA players
    3 years in game to 20 – 22
    1 yr AHL/NHL
    21 6 years control
    22 5 years control
    23 4 years control

  44. frjohnk says:

    TheOtherJohn: Calgary and Winnipeg have revenue that would allow them to spend $$ and acquire players. with goodly contarcts. Not sure of that with Buffalo, Col and Dallas

    Florida,NYI, Dallas, Ottawa, Buffalo, Col, Nash will have more money left over to pay per player next year than Calgary.

    With a 72M salary cap
    Calgary can spend 3.25M per player to reach the cap ( 8 players)
    Edmonton can spend 2.7M per player to reach the cap ( 8 players) this is not including the players I mentioned above.

    Edmonton is right in the middle when looking at the league. Like I said, not too hot, not too cold. But I agree, a 29th place team for that amount of spending is not good value.

    Calgary is about 9th best when looking at salary cap position.

    EDIT: I should also add that some of those contracts you mentioned are on the high side.

    Yak does not get 3M, closer to 2M

    Lander and Marincin wont get much more than 1M, if they get that.

  45. Ontario Oilers Fan says:

    I disagree that Montreal would let go Fucale for Petry. Fucale still has great potential as he gains more experience and some AHL time by end 2015-16.
    MacT is not a competent GM and keeps saying one thing but doing a completely defferent thing. In the end a team such as Montreal will offer their 2nd round pick and a lowly prospect IMO for Jeff Petry. Petry would do very in Habsville

  46. Alpine says:

    AZOIL,

    He had a strong few playoff games last and he’s been great in his AHL stint this season. Just got back from injury and is easing back in as Andersen’s backup. Like Vasilevsky in TB, doubt the Ducks have much reason to trade a 21 YO goalie who can they can develop into a starter behind another guy that he can compete with for minutes.

  47. Alpine says:

    supernova,

    Yeah Stamkos getting renewed at say 10M or close makes the things tight, which then probably increases the incentive to keep your RFAs to provide good value for money. Like if it seems like a risk Stamkos goes, I see TB having an even tighter grasp on potential franchisers like Drouin and Vas. Probably takes Drai or Nurse plus another good asset to move the needle.

  48. Halfwise says:

    Oilers have plenty of talent on reasonable contracts, along with some meh on unreasonable contracts. (Hello Captain!).

    I’m a Petry fan, and before that a Gilbert fan. Hate to see him traded. That said, nor would I endorse a massive overpay just before a summer when over-committed teams have to shed salary.

    Best case scenario if he won’t sign this week is to grab a prospect from someone who wants to rent Petry, and then see what the open market values him at in July. Doesn’t sound to me as if bridges are being burnt between MacT and his agent.

    But here on my planet, the glass is generally half full and sparkly.

  49. Unicorns says:

    GCW_69:
    If I understand the CBA correctly, you can sign an extension once your existing contract has one year left.The Oilers could have, and should have, signed Petry to an extension the summer or 2013.Petry was early enough in his career that dangling a long term extension then would have been very hard to turn down.And the Oilers went from 1.5 years of history (at the time tambo signed him) to 2.5 years at that point, and should have known what they had and have had a reasonable view of the upside and downside risk.

    I would bet a number starting with 4 and term of 4 to 6 years would have (easily) gotten the deal done in 2013.

    Missed opportunity is the life’s blood of the Oilers.

    This is at the core of the Oilers probelm with prospects. You could say they can’t decide on players soon enough, and I have before. But it might be that they have a set idea of what they want and the players aren’t meeting it, and they can’t decide if they will. That set idea has very little to do with success if the last 20 years are any indication.

    When a player starts performing they move them despite, perhaps because they can’t see the merit because it doesn’t look like what thwy think they want.

    If they are going to force players into a mold like Detroit openly talks about, you have to let them stew in the A, and then earn a progression up the lines in the NHL while playing them fully. The Oilers are too erratic to do that as it stands.

  50. CrazyCoach says:

    *With apologies to Robert DeNiro*

    Top 5 Reasons to sign Jeff Petry
    5) Just sign him already!
    4) He’s the best D-man the Oilers have!
    3) Haven’t you been listening to me. Just sign him already!
    2) Who else is going to fill in his spot?
    1) Just sign him already!

  51. calgarysux says:

    So, Lowetide, what if Petry’s agent bends the team over and asks for $7-8 million a season as both a free agent premium as well as a team suckage premium? The long term cap health of the team has to be kept in mind, you of all people should know that.

    Also, let’s not forget how bad the team is still doing WITH him in the lineup, how much worse can it get without?

  52. Halfwise says:

    Unicorns:

    When a player starts performing they move them despite, perhaps because they can’t see the merit because it doesn’t look like what thwy think they want.

    If they are going to force players into a mold like Detroit openly talks about, you have to let them stew in the A, and then earn a progression up the lines in the NHL while playing them fully. The Oilers are too erratic to do that as it stands.

    I agree. There is a systemic weakness in how they make decisions.

    Maybe at the outset their objectives are wrong, i.e. what they think will succeed in terms of roster makeup is wrong. So they carefully build the wrong team with wrong demographics and development paths.

    Or their objectives are right but their player selection is wrong. Could be bad information from scouts, or the scouting information might be correct but handled poorly.

    Or perhaps (this is my pet theory) KL’s emotions get the better of him at the worst possible moment, and the best laid plans get overturned in a fit of anger or fear by the guy at the very top. You know, the one whose hand is supposed to be steady on the tiller.

  53. Eustace Matthews '16 says:

    From Mirtle:

    2. Lars Eller, Montreal. Another player being dangled as trade bait, Eller’s exploits of late aren’t helping Habs GM Marc Bergevin move him. Eller has one point at 5-on-5 in 22 games after a surprisingly productive run in the playoffs last season. He’s also got three years left on a deal that pays him $3.5-million a season, making a deal harder to pull off. In his defence, all that ice time with Brandon Prust et al on his wing hasn’t helped fill the net.

    Petry + for Eller (conditional if they can sign Petry), and we’ll let bygones be bygones. Then, once the cap number is officially announced, maybe MacT can lure Petry back… (river in Africa calling me)

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/mirtle-nhls-foray-into-analytics-not-off-to-great-start/article23142749/

  54. frjohnk says:

    calgarysux: what if Petry’s agent bends the team over and asks for $7-8 million a season

    $7-8 Million a season is fair value for Petry. Sign him.

    And I’m not even a Petry fan.

  55. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Eustace Matthews ’16,

    I don’t understand the love for Eller. I feel like there are better options that cost less (both to acquire and to pay) and perform better.

    His name has cachet because he was traded for Halak. Unfulfilled promise and one good playoff run is how I see him. I’d take him with $1M retained for a 4th round pick but wouldn’t offer anything of value.

  56. jp says:

    rickithebear:
    Are edmonton not positioned to have Value contracts roll in at critical top 6 and top 4 dump points.

    15-16 on:
    LW Hall 6M 5 years to summer 2020
    C RNH 6M 6 years to summer 2021
    RW Eberle 6M 4 yearsto summer 2019
    LW pouliot 4M 4 years to summer 2019
    ______________________________________
    RW Yakupov RFA 4 years summer 2019
    C Lander RFA 3 years summer 2018
    C Draisatl 3.4M ELC 7 years Summer 2022
    C YakimovELC 6 years summer 2021
    C khaira ELC 6 years Summer 2021

    Fayne 3.625M 3years summer 2018
    Schultz RFA 4 yearssummer 2019
    Marincin 4 years summer 2019
    Klefbom 5 years Summer2020
    Nurse 7 years sumer 2022
    Musil 5 years summer 2020
    Gernat 5 years summer2020
    Davidson 4 years summer 2019

    Brossoit 5 years summer 2020

    These players have a peer history that says 90% chance NHL player.

    they have to go against peer trend to fail.

    I wish I could believe Yakimov, Khaira, Musil, Gernat, Davidson and Brossoit all have a 90% chance of being NHL regulars. I mean, I sure hope you’re right, but I don’t see it.

  57. frjohnk says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”:
    Eustace Matthews ’16,

    I don’t understand the love for Eller. I feel like there are better options that cost less (both to acquire and to pay) and perform better.

    His name has cachet because he was traded for Halak. Unfulfilled promise and one good playoff run is how I see him.I’d take him with $1M retained for a 4th round pick but wouldn’t offer anything of value.

    We need value contracts for the bottom 6. Lander is a better bet for us.

    The gap between Lander and Eller is not much.
    Play against similar competition.
    Similar 5 on 5 points this year per 60.
    Lander does have better Ozone starts.
    Similar quality of wingers
    Eller plays with better D man ( Subban and markov 2 most,
    Lander has played with Schultz and Petry the most.

  58. Eustace Matthews '16 says:

    http://www.theplayerstribune.com/miracle-on-ice-hockey-russia/

    Some interesting words from Yak’s ag… I mean, Larionov.

  59. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    frjohnk,

    So we’re on the same page, I think. Montreal isn’t going to trade him to us with $1M retained for a 4th. That’s the max I’d be willing to pay because I think he is totally overrated and we can do better for cheaper.

  60. vinotintazo says:

    Just for gigles:

    Hemsky

    2013-2014 Oilers
    GP:55 G:9 A:17 PT:26 +/-: -13

    2013-2014 Dallas
    GP:54 G:9 A:17 PT:26 +/-: -6

  61. thejonrmcleod says:

    frjohnk: $7-8 Million a season is fair value for Petry.Sign him.

    And I’m not even a Petry fan.

    I am a Petry fan, and at $7-8 million per season, I’d have to walk away and wish Petry the best.

  62. supernova says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”:
    frjohnk,

    So we’re on the same page, I think. Montreal isn’t going to trade him to us with $1M retained for a 4th. That’s the max I’d be willing to pay because I think he is totally overrated and we can do better for cheaper.

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”,

    I get that you don’t see value in him but after reading a couple of blog posts in him.

    It seems he is a decent to above average 3rd line Center, with size and also starts more often in the DZ, yet can still produce a above average amount of shots / 60 and a decent rel Corsi.

    ——
    On of the holes the Oilers have with or without Lander is Center and especially a Center who can do the above.

    A 3C that can help to contain bigger forwards to allow for Nuge and Roy/ Drai to get more OZ starts is key.

    We are running Gordon ragged.
    ——

    Petry for Ellers isn’t likely to happen as Ellers probably holds more value for having term on his deal but it might be a decent starting point as Habs seem to have Center depth and the option of moving Galynchuk to Center as well.

    ——-

    On a different note didn’t get the chance to respond to you.

    The discussion of Hanifan to Marner to Strome.

    I attempt to breakdown players versus position.

    Wasn’t trying to say that Hanifan isn’t a top 3 D just that I haven’t delved into him and top 3 D are supposed to bring Offence, the only knock I have read on him was his lack of O but he is also playing in NCAA as a really young player.

    Most common comparable I have seen is Bowmeester, which is a very competent top 3 D in my books.

  63. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    supernova,

    I think we ask ourselves the question. Sobotka is at $2.25M for one year. St, Louis is up against the cap. Is Eller at 3 more years x $3.5M a better bet than Sobotka is? I think not. Oilers can’t pay $3.5M for Eller and $3M for Gordon to centre their bottom 6. So unless Montreal is retaining salary or taking back a Ference or Purcell or Nikitin, the Oilers can’t make that trade.

    Re: Hanifin. He has scored 13 points in his last 13 games. The offense is starting to come along for him. We’ll see how he looks by the end of the year. Bouwmeester could be a floor? I don’t know. Going to be an interesting debate for sure over #3.

  64. rickithebear says:

    jp: I wish I could believe Yakimov, Khaira, Musil, Gernat, Davidson and Brossoit all have a 90% chance of being NHL regulars. I mean, I sure hope you’re right, but I don’t see it.

    Musil and davidson are the risk.

    Yak(20) and Khaira (20) are above .7 EVP/gm with C ham; Pak; Miller as wingers just like lander(23)

  65. haters says:

    Any chance we could stuff Lowe MacT and anyone else in management in the same cannon when they load Petry in ? What a sad turn of events.

    Oh well always next year I suppose….

  66. Bag of Pucks says:

    I think one of the factors that keeps bad teams from improving is how their lack of depth impacts salary negotiations and thus ultimately their cap management.

    Petry’s agent can point to a raft of data to support their position for him being paid like a number one defenseman. After all, that is how this perennial loser is forced to deploy him in the absence of better options.

    Undoubtedly MacT is loathe to pay Petry #1 wages likely seeing more in the 3-4 range. MacT undoubtedly projects a long term future where Nurse and Klefbom are his top pairing.

    Combine that with the reality of a poor team in a cold, remote market and it’s hard for me to blame MacT outright for not getting Petry’s signature on a longterm deal at precisely the moment when his market value is the highest.

    The mistake then was not trading Petry this past summer when it was clear he was headed to rental status.

    Petry is a player the Oilers need no doubt. But very shortly he will sign a contract that is not a value deal for the team signing him.

    This is quite simply a lose/ lose situation for player and team.

  67. supernova says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”:
    supernova,

    I think we ask ourselves the question. Sobotka is at $2.25M for one year. St, Louis is up against the cap. Is Eller at 3 more years x $3.5M a better bet than Sobotka is? I think not. Oilers can’t pay $3.5M for Eller and $3M for Gordon to centre their bottom 6. So unless Montreal is retaining salary or taking back a Ference or Purcell or Nikitin, the Oilers can’t make that trade.

    Re: Hanifin. He has scored 13 points in his last 13 games. The offense is starting to come along for him. We’ll see how he looks by the end of the year. Bouwmeester could be a floor? I don’t know. Going to be an interesting debate for sure over #3.

    rickithebear,

    fair points on both Eller and Hanifan,

    —–

    i look at the Eller angle this way.

    If the best we can do is acquire a 2/3 round pick for Petry, I would rather acquire Eller.

    If we can get say Adam Erne from Tampa as the alternative i take that.

    I agree our bottom 6 centers should not combine for nearly 7 million, however that might be a top 5 bottom 6 combo in the league, also Gordon is coming up next season, and while I have really valued Gordon, it might be best to cut bait with him before he turns into the player he replaced.

    ——–

    if the floor is Bowmeester for Hanifan i take him.

    In saying that the top 5 in this draft is very intriguing.

    a clear generational center
    a possible generational center with size
    a top notch D
    a debate between a size and skill Center and a dynamite winger who is burning up the best Junior league.

    Where was this depth in 2012?

    Yak would be a debate for 4 or 5. Murray would be farther back,

    Timing is everything.

  68. Магия 10 says:

    New Year’s Eve:

    Hey, Jeff I told them that any opening offer south of 30 would be an insult and to not even go there.
    So they’ll wait until closer to the deadline to negotiate.

    Good, Eaky should be out by then.

    And Jeff, Now that I’ve told them not to insult you with an offer, tell the first reporter you see that you haven’t seen anything from the team. Never fails.

    Great. It’s all on them.

    Yeah, Jeff. Like one of the local bloggers says they developed a history. Fans won’t believe a damn thing they say all day long.

    Nice.

  69. Woodguy says:

    They way he’s played since his last call up I’d rate Lander over Eller.

    Way more offence.

  70. Магия 10 says:

    The big failure (whoever was unreasonable) was last summer. This is take 2 with even less chance of closing unless the bottom line is 5×5. I think the team and most on this board would do 5×5, But what if it really takes more than 5 per and more than 5 years? And who knows what the premium was last summer?

  71. frjohnk says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”:
    frjohnk,

    So we’re on the same page, I think. Montreal isn’t going to trade him to us with $1M retained for a 4th. That’s the max I’d be willing to pay because I think he is totally overrated and we can do better for cheaper.

    yup

  72. TheOtherJohn says:

    frjohnk: Florida,NYI, Dallas, Ottawa, Buffalo, Col, Nash will have more money left over to pay per player next year than Calgary.With a 72M salary capCalgary can spend 3.25M per player to reach the cap ( 8 players)Edmonton can spend 2.7M per player to reach the cap ( 8 players) this is not including the players I mentioned above.Edmonton is right in the middle when looking at the league. Like I said, not too hot, not too cold. But I agree, a 29th place team for that amount of spending is not good value.Calgary is about 9th best when looking at salary cap position.EDIT: I should also add that some of those contracts you mentioned are on the high side.Yak does not get 3M, closer to 2MLander and Marincin wont get much more than 1M, if they get that.

    I am not talking about teams with available cap space. I am talking about teams that have revenue to take on that type of payroll. Ottawa, Colorado and Fla aren’t doing that and Nash never has.

    We will see what these guys get paid. I think my numbers for the group will be pretty close. We would not look at the Oilers payroll and think “gee thats another real good value contract.”

    On Calgary next year the question is do they have prospects ready to come in from the AHL and play on cheap contracts. I am unaware of any Oiler forwards in OKC poised to do that. Ditto the D…..maybe Osterle??? but suspect thats a reach?

  73. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy:
    They way he’s played since his last call up I’d rate Lander over Eller.

    Way more offence.

    Eller this year 5 on 5 is 1.6 pts/60 min
    Lander this year 5 on 5 is 1.8 pts/60 min.

    Same type of competition
    Same type of linemates

    Eller O zone start of 40%. Lander is 55%.

    Eller has better D men ( plays the most with Subban and Markov)

    The issue I have is that we can not pay 6.5M to our two bottom 6 centers.

    Lander at 600k this year, 1M is great value for a third line center. Eller at 3.5M is not.

    Value wise its Lander when looking at the cap hit, hands down.

  74. GCW_69 says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”: Talk about robbing Peter to pay Paul. Oilers have too many holes all over the lineup at both D and C to make that trade right now.

    Neither Leon or Nurse is helping right now, and probably not next season either. Whichever one you trade can be replaced with Eichel/Strome/Hanifan. Hanifan’s ETA for the NHL is probably the same as Nurse if you believe the scouts, maybe earlier. If its Leon, are the Oilers really giving up much swapping Leon for Strome? Eichel?

    I am, of course, assuming there is no way the Oilers can sign Petry.

  75. jp says:

    rickithebear: Musil and davidson are the risk.

    Yak(20) and Khaira (20)are above .7 EVP/gm with C ham; Pak; Miller as wingers just like lander(23)

    Agreed they’re the biggest risks, but the others are far from sure things too.

    Everyone but you apparently is very concerned with Khaira’s offense. 0.7 EVP/G with decent wingers, sure. But what’s the sample size? 10 GP? Less? This is a guy with 9 points (0.2 PPG) in his rookie pro season who scored 0.75 PPG in his draft +2 WHL season. I don’t know what algorithm you could put those latter numbers into to get a 90% chance of an NHL player. You’ve basically pronounced Khaira a sure fire NHLer based on 10 good games and thrown out the rest of his career performance.

    I still like Khaira as a prospect, and as I said, I sure hope you’re right about all this. But I think it’s far more likely 1-2 NHLers come out of this group than 5-6.

  76. GCW_69 says:

    Ca$h-Money!:
    GCW_69,

    I wouldn’t offer Nurse/Leon straight accros for any unproven goalie. That’s career suicide for a GM if it doesn’t pan out.

    Its also a career saver if he does. Have you seen what Price is doing for Montreal? What Varlamov does for Colorado when he is healthy? A goalie that rocks it covers up many many sins. I think its worth the risk.

  77. rickithebear says:

    La kings D:
    Doughty 6’1″ 213LBS (2.92lb/in)
    Muzzin 6’3″ 214lb (2.85)
    Regr 6’3″ 222lb (2.96)
    Mcnabb 6’4″ 208lb (2.74)
    Greene 6’3″ 234lb (3.12)
    Martinez 6’1″ 209lb (2.86)

    Edmonton;
    Nikitin 6’4″ 217lb (2.86)
    Fayne 6’3″ 215lb (2.87)
    Klefbom 6’3″ (2.80)
    ——————————
    marincin 6’4″ 203lb (2.67)
    Petry 6’3″ 198 lb (2.64)
    J. Schultz 6’2″ 196 (2.65)
    Ference 5’11” 184lb (2.59)
    Osterle 6’0″ 182lb (2.53)

    in the system:
    Betker 6’5″ 220lb (2.86)
    Davidson 6’2″ 214lb (2.89)
    Musil 6’4″ 207lb (2.72)
    Nurse 6’4′ 205lb (2.70)
    Lagesson 6’2″ 196lb (2.65)

    —————————————————
    #5 Hanafin 6’2″ 201lb (2.72)
    #6 Provorov 6’0″ 200lb (2.78) NHLE 23 EVP 15 PPP
    #7 Werenski 6’1″ 201lb (2.75)
    #33 R. Andersson 6’0″ 210lb (2.92) NHLE 17 EVP 17 PPP
    #37 R. Pilon 6’2″ 212lb (2.86) 22 EVP 15 PPP

  78. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    rickithebear,

    This might be my favourite post of yours, ever. Pounds per inch? ha ha ha ha

    is Byfuglien champion?

  79. Ca$h-Money! says:

    I’ve got the perfect idea for the Pittsburgh pick.

    JANKOWSKI, DAVID

    A bit of a reach for where he’s ranked, but he might be the best player in the draft.

  80. frjohnk says:

    TheOtherJohn: On Calgary next year the question is do they have prospects ready to come in from the AHL and play on cheap contracts. I am unaware of any Oiler forwards in OKC poised to do that. Ditto the D…..maybe Osterle??? but suspect thats a reach?

    Yeah both teams don’t have much for prospects in the AHL right now that I see playing next year in the NHL

    Maybe 1 or 2 make the jump for both teams

    More likely to see guys like Bennett, Draisaitl and Nurse with the big clubs at some point next year

  81. rickithebear says:

    jp: Agreed they’re the biggest risks, but the others are far from sure things too.

    Everyone but you apparently is very concerned with Khaira’s offense. 0.7 EVP/G with decent wingers, sure. But what’s the sample size? 10 GP? Less? This is a guy with 9 points (0.2 PPG) in his rookie pro season who scored 0.75 PPG in his draft +2 WHL season. I don’t know what algorithm you could put those latter numbers into to get a 90% chance of an NHL player. You’ve basically pronounced Khaira a sure fire NHLer based on 10 good games and thrown out the rest of his career performance.

    I still like Khaira as a prospect, and as I said, I sure hope you’re right about all this. But I think it’s far more likely 1-2 NHLers come out of this group than 5-6.

    that is just poor Org Development.

    Yakimov was .333 EVP/gm in KHL @ 19 playing 9:55 TOI
    2.02 EVP/60

    Khaira size and NCAA production said a 65% chance player.
    His AHL production with offensive players is a small sample size.
    but His production with matched pairs is superior to Lander and Yakimov @ center.

  82. OilSafety says:

    rickithebear,

    Best stat ever, lol.

  83. Heinz 57 says:

    For the first time in memory, I like Staples’ piece this morning better than LT’s.

    I hate to say this but Edmonton Oilers improved record under Todd Nelson a bit of a mirage

    ———

    You can say ‘he was never going to sign here anyway!’ and maybe that’s true but I’m giving no quarter to management on that one. Whatever the reason Jeff Petry is leaving, whatever the reason he isn’t going to sign, I blame management.

    I understand the mood in the room, but none of my rational circuits can go along with this.

    As the chips stand, Petry is effectively a FA already. The only claim our draft history with Petry has on his UFA years was long ago relinquished: we didn’t make a deal securitizing any of his UFA seasons back when we had the chance. Over the last two seasons, Petry has gone out on the ice and put his UFA earning-power at risk night after night. Barn open, horse gone. This would have been a win for management had the “wobbly ankle” card dropped on the turn or the river. It might even have been win for management if the “tower of power” card had dropped on the turn or the river. But instead, nothing good (and nothing interesting) happed on the turn or the flop, and now we’re sitting on Q4 unimproved with both a 3 and 2 showing on the table. We can’t even challenge Buffalo’s J3.

    At this point, why should Petry want to play here more willingly (or less well compensated) than any other UFA? Because by now he’s more used to the losing culture? Because his fire has dimmed? Because Oilers’ management gives him a warm-fuzzy feeling? Because the recent east-coast mirage offsets every other damn thing that’s gone wrong the entire time he’s played here? Because the all-knowing, all-glowing Edmonton fan-base just can’t get enough of his player type?

    How do you turn a draft pick into a franchise cornerstone? Well, when is the last time Petry played a meaningful hockey game in a month beginning with the letter “J”? I’d guess 80% of his meaning hockey games over his career in Edmonton were confined to months containing the letter “o”.

    ———

    Yogi Berra once observed that it’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future. Staples often asks the right question, and he often arrives at the right answer. I just wish these two skills would more often contrive to link arms in the same post.

    Edmonton Oilers is least favourite NHL destination for players, ESPN reports

    This is bad news from Custance then, but it’s not terrible news. It can be fixed. All it takes is winning.

    I’ve argued many times that what Edmonton faces is not a Detroit problem (i.e. achieving long-term consistency), what it faces is a bootstrap problem. We can’t even begin to become more like Detroit until we are already winning. When the team is competitive, we’re far closer to par on the player-preference list. When we’re not competitive, FA years are paid for in blood (most players who come here at market rates are teetering on the brink of the Black Diamond career downslope).

    Fundamentally, the bootstrap problem can only be solved at the draft table. Well, we effed up the draft table for a number of years. This makes it darn hard to retain the UFA services of even those rare depth draft choices who came up cherries.

    Tambi: We’ll make the jump to credibility by doing nothing much, and then I’ll spend the farm.

    That’s what I thought at the time, but there’s no firm evidence he even had that much of a plan.

    MacT: I’ll spend the farm making the jump to credibility by playing short chips with a golden electroplate.

    Then Nikitin arrives and the only evidence we’ve got that he spent so much as ten minutes in the electroplate bath are the alligator-clip teeth marks.

    MacT: I thought you said he was gold-plated?

    Howson: Well just look at those clip marks. Hooo-ey.

    MacT: You know, there are some other steps in the process.

    Howson: Like what?

    MacT: Well, to begin with, Lourdes water is low on the necessary mineral content.

    Howson: It is?

    MacT: And for a second thing, once the clip is attached you have to supply major juice.

    Howson: Are we talking Old South or Ocean Spray?

    MacT: Hooo-ey, I think I see the problem here.

    ———

    Here’s the real problem. There is no timetable on a bootstrap rebuild until you successfully make the jump.

    This “setting the clock back” meme is meaningless. First you make the jump into credibility hyperspace and then you engage Detroit-model supercruise (a transition that should be well-prepared long in advance).

    How do you make the jump? Unfortunately—short of running the draft table—it’s a black art. Here’s one recipe.

    Place Hall, Nuge, Eberle, Yakupov and Jultz at the five corners of a pentagram etched into once-hallowed ice. Stand at the center dot wearing a severed tongue as a neck tie (dang it, I knew I shouldn’t have just tossed that away) and quaff a bubbling pint of Bold laundry detergent / fabric softener, then hold your bowels together and wait for lightening to strike.

    ———

    A large globe of ball lightening descends upon Taylor Hall.

    Hot damn.

    Nuge and Eberle begin to crackle.

    Hell, it’s working!

    Jultz: I’m not feeling anything. Wait a minute, I’m getting a HUGE signal. No, now it’s fading again.

    Jultz begins to randomly bend the rabbit ears of the hand-held B&W television set he brought along to dowse the chthonic magnetosphere.

    MacT: Hey Justin, just Jultz around a bit. For a moment there I thought you had picked up some serious Morris potential.

    Yakupov: I’m not feeling anything. How should I stand? Do I have to hold my hands in a special position?

    MacT: Hey, do you see a lid? What do you think I am, a teapot? Besides, the last time I tried this, young Samwise bled me for everything I know. Afro-of-the-century for five years, and only once arced over and not until it hardly mattered. So just figure it out for yourself, would you?

    Jultz: I think I’m getting a signal over here!

    Jultz is now standing about 15 m away from his assigned pentacular point designated with the astrological star sign of The Free Lunch.

    MacT: Justin, you have to feed the power back into the pentagram before the Spirit of Detroit answers our summons.

    Justin: But I only feel it here!

    MacT: That’s great, but ya gotta come back!

    Just then there’s a clap of thunder. A large plume of black smoke erupts from Yakupov’s head.

    MacT: Outstanding! Yak, you turned the very air around you into black soot. Now can you do that again with actual lightening?

    Yakupov: Oh, yeah, sure. Once every twenty times there’s a thick smoke contrail and a blinding flash at the end.

    MacT: Well, hold off until Justin is back where he’s supposed to stand.

    Yakupov: Hold ovv? What means “hold ovv”?

    Yakupov thinks hard. Think, Nail, think! What did that older-than-dirt crazy Russian tell me to do when another player has hold of my shirt when I spoke to him, right after he gave me permission to get hold of his number? I feel like the answer is right here, and it’s so awesome. What means “hold ovv”? Think, Nail, think.

    ———

    As we know, they never quite got all five arms ignited at the same moment.

    Spirit of Detroit: What’s that vaguely irritating smell?

    Oh, never mind, time for my regularly scheduled constitutional. Oh gosh, I hate this part. Nothing constricts the cupric six-pack that tiny brush removing pigeon feathers from under the loin fold. Hee hee hee. Concentrate on the hands. Even if it tickles, do not drop God. That would be very embarrassing. Don’t sneeze on the family, either, I could blow them to smithereens. And don’t sneeze on God. Those sharp rays could poke an eye out. Man, sometimes I hardly know which way to turn my head. Memo to self: Next time, before my hands are busied for all eternity, hitch the damn loin cloth up over the frondalment.

    ———

    My guess is that until magic somehow happens, there will continue to be an unbroken succession of musical spires at the Bootstrap Pentacle wishing well.

    ———

    Bootstrap Pentacle under new management now under bold management some cluck we interviewed five times with a fifteen-by-fifteen competency-based scoring matrix who somehow still wanted the job when we finally called him.

    ———

    The designers of HTML were definitely not thinking of the Oilers when they added the strike tag, but left out strike2 and strike3.

  84. oliveoilers says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”:
    rickithebear,

    This might be my favourite post of yours, ever. Pounds per inch? ha ha ha ha

    is Byfuglien champion?

    More PSI per defender, the more pressure they can put you under. Stands to reason. Though the equation should be mass times gravitational constant on Earth divided by the area of their skate blades for the pedantic. Hence pounds PER square inch.

    Are we talking absolute, atmospheric or gauge pressure?

  85. supernova says:

    rickithebear: that is just poor Org Development.

    Yakimov was .333 EVP/gm in KHL @ 19playing 9:55 TOI
    2.02 EVP/60

    Khaira size and NCAA production said a 65% chance player.
    His AHL production with offensive players is a small sample size.
    but His production with matched pairs is superior to Lander and Yakimov @ center.

    rickithebear,

    exactly why the Oilers need to redo how they handle prospects.

    I really disagree with having this list on their AHL team

    Miller
    Williams
    Pinizotto
    R Hamilton
    M Ford

    Where do the prospects get legitimate minutes?

    At most we should have 3 of these players.

    Miller made sense to sign as a NCAA FA
    Williams as a veteran Center
    Pinnizotto was a decent to good trade
    R Hamilton was a tweener that needed a chance
    M Ford showed well and deserved the chance

    The issue is where do the minutes up front come from?

    Oilers need to cut bait with at least 3 of these players and find there replacement.

    R Hamilton has already secured one spot.
    In my opinion its down to Williams or MIller and Miller has played really well lately.

    Prospects need minutes to develop, especially the sink or swim minutes. 1st line or 2nd line, PP and PK.

  86. Pouzar says:

    supernova,

    Not sure how realistic it is but I would like to see a lot of newly signed prospects put into the ECHL affiliate and have them get their feet wet in the pros. The AHL is quite a jump for a lot of these kids.

  87. Ca$h-Money! says:

    Pouzar,

    I think it would be great if we were a pioneer in effectively using the ECHL. Why not have that place as the natural starting point for first year pros who don’t have elite pedigree? Put Legs, Houck, Roy, Platzer there next year and have them earn AHL minutes. Nothing wrong with 1 year in the ECHL, and just because it wasn’t common in the past doesn’t mean it won’t be an effective tool for us.

  88. Ca$h-Money! says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”:
    Did you guys see this?
    http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/12331388/the-great-analytics-rankings#

    Interesting that they have the Sharks in the “one foot in camp” and closer to the league bottom than the top. Aren’t they pretty much owned by an analytics firm?

  89. delooper says:

    The Oilers would be confounding their poor D management with their poor G management if they traded Petry for a goalie or a goalie prospect.

    As Dubnyk has shown, the Oilers D is so bad there’s no reliable way to assess the quality of their goaltenders. It’s difficult enough to assess a goaltender on a decent to good team. On a team with such a flawed defense and overall defensive strategy, it’s next to impossible.

    The Oilers need to fix their D and C issues before trying to outsmart themselves with creative G solutions.

  90. Woodguy says:

    Heinz 57,

    I hate to say this but Edmonton Oilers improved record under Todd Nelson a bit of a mirage

    The fancystats are giving the same information.

    They Oilers are not good.

    They are actually worse than under Eakins.

    Losing Perron and Hall can probably account for a lot of that.

    Its the roster.

  91. rickithebear says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”:
    rickithebear,

    This might be my favourite post of yours, ever. Pounds per inch? ha ha ha ha

    is Byfuglien champion?

    In any contact sport i have played
    The center of gravity; weigh; strength is critical to strong defensive play.
    everyone looks for height.

    Even LAK shorter mobile D are tanks

    It sure does not surprise me our heaviest and highest Lb/in D are our best Defensive D.

    Petry; Schultz; Osterle. we are playing junior sized D against the western conference.:

    Doughty 6’1″ 213lb (2.92)
    Subban 6’0″ 218lb (3.03)
    Alzner 6’2″ 217lb (2.93)
    #1 Clitsome 5’11” 211lb (2.97)
    #2 Ian Cole 6’1″ 219lb (3.00)
    #4 K. Miller 6’2″ 210lb (2.82)
    #10 Grossman 6’4″ 230lb (3.03)
    #12 bellimore 6’4″ 225lb (2.96)
    #13 boychuk 6’2″ 225lb (3.04)
    #15 Leopold 6’0″ 206lb (2.86)
    #16 Shattenkirk 5’11” 207lb (2.92)
    #18 Scuderi 6’1″ 212lb (2.90)
    #23 Regr 6’3″ 222lb (2.96)
    #27 Bogosian 6’3″ 225lb (3.00)
    #28 Beauchemin 6’1″ 208 (2.85)
    #31 Martinez 6’1″ 209lb (2.86)
    #38 Niskanen 6’0″ 209lb (2.90)
    #40 A. Sustr 6’7″ 225lb (2.85)
    #42 Yemelin 6’1″ 217lb (2.97)
    #44 S. Hannan 6’1″ 221lb (3.03)
    #45 lovejoy 6’1″ 206lb (2.82)
    #46 Quincey 6’2″ 216lb (2.92)
    #48 C. Philips 6’3″ 221lb (2.95)
    #56 S. Weber 6’4″ 233lb (3.07)
    #59 B. Stuart 6’2″ 215lb (2.91)
    A physical lb/in D is critical to a Low EVGA d pair.

    Our low lb/in D do not cut it as reflected by EVGA/60
    Peckham 6’2″ 245lb (3.31)
    Fistric 6’2″ 225lb (3.04)
    Aulie 6’6″ 228lb (2.92)
    Have all had successful EVGA/60 seasons.

    But our mgmt and fans all have the pretty girl syndrome.

    It looks like……………….

  92. jp says:

    rickithebear: that is just poor Org Development.

    Yakimov was .333 EVP/gm in KHL @ 19playing 9:55 TOI
    2.02 EVP/60

    Khaira size and NCAA production said a 65% chance player.
    His AHL production with offensive players is a small sample size.
    but His production with matched pairs is superior to Lander and Yakimov @ center.

    Agreed that Yakimov is trending well. He put up points in the KHL and is actually scoring some this year.

    Also agree that Khaira has been saddled with very poor linemates this year. But you’re ignoring his weak WHL season, and I’m simply not convinced 0.7 EVP/G in 8 or 10 GP reflects his real ability. That’s way out of whack with anything he’s done before, including his relatively strong NCAA season. Maybe he’s not scoring because of his linemates, or maybe he’s with bad linemates because he’s not a scorer.

  93. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy:
    Heinz 57,

    I hate to say this but Edmonton Oilers improved record under Todd Nelson a bit of a mirage

    The fancystats are giving the same information.

    They Oilers are not good.

    They are actually worse than under Eakins.

    Losing Perron and Hall can probably account for a lot of that.

    Its the roster.

    The purest of fancy stats:
    1. (blocks + missed+ hit golaie) / corsi = d pressure affect
    2. Open hole saves / total open hole shots + golaie save%

    Lets have some numbers WG!
    😉

  94. oliveoilers says:

    rickithebear: In any contact sport i have played
    The center of gravity; weigh; strength is critical to strong defensive play.
    everyone looks for height.

    Even LAK shorter mobile D are tanks

    It sure does not surprise me our heaviest and highest Lb/in D are our best Defensive D.

    Petry; Schultz; Osterle. we are playing junior sized D against the western conference.:

    Doughty 6’1″ 213lb (2.92)
    Subban 6’0″ 218lb (3.03)
    Alzner 6’2″ 217lb (2.93)
    #1 Clitsome 5’11” 211lb (2.97)
    #2 Ian Cole 6’1″ 219lb (3.00)
    #4 K. Miller 6’2″ 210lb (2.82)
    #10 Grossman 6’4″ 230lb (3.03)
    #12 bellimore 6’4″ 225lb (2.96)
    #13 boychuk 6’2″ 225lb (3.04)
    #15 Leopold 6’0″ 206lb (2.86)
    #16 Shattenkirk 5’11” 207lb (2.92)
    #18 Scuderi 6’1″ 212lb (2.90)
    #23 Regr 6’3″ 222lb (2.96)
    #27 Bogosian 6’3″ 225lb (3.00)
    #28 Beauchemin 6’1″ 208 (2.85)
    #31 Martinez 6’1″ 209lb (2.86)
    #38 Niskanen 6’0″ 209lb (2.90)
    #40 A. Sustr 6’7″ 225lb (2.85)
    #42 Yemelin 6’1″ 217lb (2.97)
    #44 S. Hannan 6’1″ 221lb (3.03)
    #45 lovejoy 6’1″ 206lb(2.82)
    #46 Quincey 6’2″ 216lb(2.92)
    #48 C. Philips 6’3″ 221lb (2.95)
    #56 S. Weber 6’4″ 233lb (3.07)
    #59 B. Stuart 6’2″ 215lb (2.91)
    A physical lb/in D is critical to a Low EVGA d pair.

    Our low lb/in D do not cut itas reflected by EVGA/60
    Peckham6’2″ 245lb (3.31)
    Fistric 6’2″ 225lb (3.04)
    Aulie 6’6″ 228lb (2.92)
    Have all had successful EVGA/60 seasons.

    But our mgmt and fans all have the pretty girl syndrome.

    It looks like……………….

    Centre of gravity in inversely proportional to height, unless your feet account for 90% of your mass (diving boot skates?). Aren’t you an oil consultant? I thought you had to have basic physics? What you are very loosely describing here is a bastard form of density.

  95. supernova says:

    Pouzar:
    supernova,

    Not sure how realistic it is but I would like to see a lot of newly signed prospects put into the ECHL affiliate and have them get their feet wet in the pros. The AHL is quite a jump for a lot of these kids.

    Pouzar,

    I think players should be breaking into Minors at approximately 20.
    Draft plus 2 ideally.
    I don’t expect them to be dominant but to get legitimate minutes.

    Take a look at the Syracuse Crunch and Norfolk Admirals.

    Interesting look because they are run by the Anaheim Ducks and Tampa Bay Lightning.

    They also traded affiliation of teams in 2012.

    Top Scorers of each team and age of scorer.

    11-12

    NA- 21,26,21,21,20= 21.8 avg
    SC- 23,20,20,24,26= 22.6 avg
    OK- 29,31,25,20,27= 26.4 avg

    12-13 Lockout

    NA-22,20,21,22,21= 21.2
    SC-24,21,21,20,21= 21.4
    OK-24,22,22,21,22= 22.2

    13-14

    NA- 21,21,20,20,22= 20.8
    SC- 21,20,20,28,27= 23.2
    OK- 22,25,22,28,25= 24.4

    14-15

    NA- 20,23,31,23,21= 23.6
    SC- 23,22,29,21,21= 23.2
    OK- 25,34,26,29,23= 27.4

    Oilers have had the oldest AHL team amongst its top 5 point getters every year amongst these 3 teams. The only year they are close is the lockout year and the names on that list, we all know.

    I also chose these 2 teams as teams that are recgonized as top NHL teams and also with good prospect bases or development.

    The biggest difference is these teams play young players in roles that will allow them to score.

    Even more remarkably they weren’t even neccessarily led by players with a hgher draft pedigree, many of those are UDFA, round 2-7 picks as well. certainly there are some higher picks like Palmieri or Connolly.

    Oilers drafting has been under “forensics”, but there is little talk about playing the players in the minors.

  96. Ca$h-Money! says:

    oliveoilers,

    Wouldn’t density require the use of player area as a size measurement rather than height? If their weight is high relative to area (Height x Width x Depth) then they would effectively be “dense”.

    We need to start measuring Dmen in 3D I guess.

  97. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy:
    Heinz 57,

    I hate to say this but Edmonton Oilers improved record under Todd Nelson a bit of a mirage

    The fancystats are giving the same information.

    They Oilers are not good.

    They are actually worse than under Eakins.

    Losing Perron and Hall can probably account for a lot of that.

    Its the roster.

    Staples is getting blasted in the comments section.

    But he is not wrong.

    Another stat. I don’t have the last 3 games for Nelson

    Eakins box shots per game 14.58
    Perimeter shots per game 15.3

    Nelson box shots per game 10.5
    Perimeter shots per game 15.7

    Oilers were better with Eakins at getting to tough areas to get shots away. This is collaborated in the above stat. And also with scoring chances from war on ice and the stats that the cult of hockey guys keep.

    With that said, Nelson has had to deal with injuries to his line up and he was thrust into coaching with this line up mid season. Might be better to see Nelson with a healthy lineup and a training camp.

    Staples mentions that the oilers play 14 of their last 21 against the west. So this will be a good test for Nelson.

    On a related note, I work with a guy who is best friends with Colby Armstrong. I ran into Colby yesterday and I asked him about Nelson as Nelson was an assistant coach with the Thrashers in 09-10 when Colby was there. Colby had nothing but good things to say about Nelson.

  98. supernova says:

    I am not sure why the Oilers don’t pick up on this.

    The exception to the rule is play in the NHL before draft plus 2. EXCEPTION.

    This Exception typically happens with top 10 picks.

    The rule for Development is draft plus 2 ( if possible) then minors and the odd taste of the NHL in that time.

    As fans besides the odd taste of the NHL we should want our picks to be “tasting” NHL life in draft plus 3 or 4.

  99. oliveoilers says:

    Ca$h-Money!:
    oliveoilers,

    Wouldn’t density require the use of player area as a size measurement rather than height?If their weight is high relative to area (Height x Width x Depth) then they would effectively be “dense”.

    We need to start measuring Dmen in 3D I guess.

    You are correct, density is mass divided by volume (how much you have shared out in how much space there is). But ricki just uses height, so with height being directly proportional to volume (as height increases, as does volume) I described it as a bastard form.

    Ricki proves, quite rightly, that successful NHL d-men tend to be big, fast and skillful. However, for every big, fast NHL d-man he can show me, I can show him a guy the same size that is simply awful, so what does it prove?

    We have 3D d-men. Seven of them. As in, they’re only good enough to play #3 pairing D on other teams.

  100. russ99 says:

    frjohnk: Staples is getting blasted in the comments section.

    But he is not wrong.

    Another stat.I don’t have the last 3 games for Nelson

    Eakins box shots per game 14.58
    Perimeter shots per game 15.3

    Nelson box shots per game 10.5
    Perimeter shots per game 15.7

    Oilers were better with Eakins at getting to tough areas to get shots away.This is collaborated in the above stat.And also with scoring chances from war on ice and the stats that the cult of hockey guys keep.

    With that said, Nelson has had to deal with injuries to his line up and he was thrust into coaching with this line up mid season.Might be better to see Nelson with a healthy lineup and a training camp.

    Staples mentions that the oilers play 14 of their last 21 against the west.So this will be a good test for Nelson.

    On a related note, I work with a guy who is best friends with Colby Armstrong.I ran into Colby yesterday and I asked him about Nelson as Nelson was an assistant coach with the Thrashers in 09-10 when Colby was there.Colby had nothing but good things to say about Nelson.

    Those numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt.

    We’re using speed more on the zone entry, we’re getting in clear areas of the ice to take less shots in the box with less traffic, and putting more pressure on the opposing keeper.

    Under Eakins, we’d dump and cycle ad nauseum and take more shots in high-traffic areas after the opposing 4-man defensive box had been set up. More shots, less shots where we were challenging the opposing keeper.

    Plus better record with Hall and Pouliot hurt.

    No matter what the fancystats say, you can’t say that they are actually worse than under Eakins. Some metrics are worse under Eakins, true. That’s the difference.

  101. Unicorns says:

    oliveoilers: Centre of gravity in inversely proportional to height, unless your feet account for 90% of your mass (diving boot skates?).Aren’t you an oil consultant?I thought you had to have basic physics?What you are very loosely describing here is a bastard form of density.

    I think Ricki’s point is about strength. Petry is tall but he’s skinny. Marincin skinny. Schultz Scrawny. Being tall doesn’t mean strong. It doesn’t mean they aren’t good players, but it leaves a dimension out of their games, and I think if they each added 10 lbs they would have more comfort with being more aggressive which would make MacLoweson giggle like a 13 year old girl, and likely end the scorn. Or at least reduce it to scowling.

    Ference is strong, he’s solid for his height, but he’s playing a power game at a 4+ inch 40 lb disadvantage. If he was a fast elusive forward or defense with puck skills his height/weight would be fine.

    Karlssons and Keiths are rare. Bobby Orr was built like a tank. Coffey too. Doughty is. It’s not definitive but I agree valid.

  102. stevezie says:

    frjohnk,

    This gels with what little Nelson hockey I have watched. I give Nelson credit for a better powerplay- I think this is what cost Eakins his job- but the dramatic improvement that some are seeing isn`t there for me. True, he lost Hall and Perron, but he gained Roy and a slight uptick in PDO (which may or may not be his doing…), but strongest change seems to be the players seem happier. That may have more to do with wins than anything else.

    Full Disclosure: Changes to my time zone, cable package and apathy levels really should disqualify my opinion here.

  103. Woodguy says:

    Ca$h-Money!: Interesting that they have the Sharks in the “one foot in camp” and closer to the league bottom than the top.Aren’t they pretty much owned by an analytics firm?

    Might explain why they were 1st in the NHL is pts/$ spent for about 10 years.

    Always ran into a hot team to crush their playoff dreams and simply shit the bed last year.

    Most successful NHL franchise in the regular season for ~10 years and could never win the big tourny.

    Now everyone is old.

    Damn shame.

  104. PaperDesigner says:

    I actually think that Nelson and Eakins are relatively even in terms of their ability to get performances out of their players at even strength.

    But Nelson has dealt with more key injuries, and losing Hall is a huge possession hole all by himself, even if his numbers have been off. It’s a big difference between Nugent-Hopkins, Eberle and Hall being your primary possession driving line and Nugent-Hopkins, Eberle and Purcell taking on the same role. Trading Perron, who you were counting on to help drive possession on secondary line, and add the cuts and scrapes the team has experienced elsewhere, and I believe that Eakins would be experiencing a similar possession drop-off if he was still behind the bench.

    But Nelson may be a better coach on special teams alone. Last I checked, and it has been a bit, both the PK and PP have taken a significant bump under his guidance. That alone makes the change a positive one. Not enough to turn this team into a contender, but it’s a good step.

    My read on Eakins is that he might actually be too smart for his own good. Big brain, very thoughtful, well-spoken, quick-thinking. That’s the sort of mind that may come up with systems that seem simple to him, but very complex and confusing for people not quite as bright as him, which since I think Eakins is fairly far along to the right of the bell curve, is probably the majority of his team. Eakins might have played the game by thinking through every little detail while on the ice as a player, but ice hockey is mostly a game of relfexes, training, good habits and spontaneity. I seem to remember hearing something about how high end athletes actually have fewer thoughts most people, because they’re basically too busy reacting. This has to be amplified in hockey, where human beings are moving at speeds we are not used to them moving at. If he overloads the players with information, and they suffer analysis paralysis, it would lead to mental mistakes, even if the information is fundamentally good, and will make the player better if they integrate it into their game.

    The reason why I suspect this is so is partially because Eakins’ teams have always won through even strength play, and lagged behind in penalty killing and powerplay. If he has a hundred useful things to say about the powerplay, a hundred about the penalty kill and a hundred about even strength play, well, you would expect better results at even strength because there is way more time to integrate that information into the player’s game since they play much more of the game at even strength, and presumably, practice tends to prioritize even strength over powerplay and penalty killing. In other words, the message would eventually sink in over the long term with plenty of opportunity for head knowledge to make the journey to reflex, but it would be much more of a slow drip to powerplay and penalty killing habits.

    Remember the swarm? Right from the start, giving the players more information than they can handle. It would also explain why even strength corsi gradually crept up under Eakins, while the powerplay and penalty kill remained quite poor. It would also explain Yakupov, who’s play looked like he was playing a game of “what is my identity as a player this week?” under Eakins, and looked like he was improving in individual aspects like defensive position while running in place overall.

    If I’m right, I hope the man figures this out. It’s a flaw that comes from having confidence in your players and wanting them to do everything possible to put themselves in a position to succeed. He comes across as a bright and dedicated guy, and I never got the sense of arrogance that others attributed to him, and I think we could always use more coaches in the NHL that are insightful and honest, rather than “I thought we played our system well tonight, although I didn’t like the turnovers”.

  105. Unicorns says:

    Heinz 57,

    “even those rare depth draft choices who came up cherries. ”

    Given later picks have such low success rates, does it not make sense to trade them up to acquire higher picks with a higher success rate? If someone would take 4,5,6,7 for a second wouldn’t you do that, keeping 1,2,3? Or trade two 3rds, or a 3rd and a 4th for a 2nd?

    To me you’re stocking the system with higher quality prospects and that should increase the turnout rate and deliver better players.

  106. Lowetide says:

    Unicorns:
    Heinz 57,

    “even those rare depth draft choices who came up cherries. ”

    Given later picks have such low success rates, does it not make sense to trade them up to acquire higher picks with a higher success rate? If someone would take 4,5,6,7 for a second wouldn’t you do that, keeping 1,2,3? Or trade two 3rds, or a 3rd and a 4th for a 2nd?

    To me you’re stocking the system with higher quality prospects and that should increase the turnout rate and deliver better players.

    I’d argue that after about No. 60, it’s a better bet to trade your third for two fourths, etc. They’re all basically the same after a certain number.

  107. Woodguy says:

    russ99: Those numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt.

    We’re using speed more on the zone entry, we’re getting in clear areas of the ice to take less shots in the box with less traffic, and putting more pressure on the opposing keeper.

    Under Eakins, we’d dump and cycle ad nauseum and take more shots in high-traffic areas after the opposing 4-man defensive box had been set up. More shots, less shots where we were challenging the opposing keeper.

    Plus better record with Hall and Pouliot hurt.

    No matter what the fancystats say, you can’t say that they are actually worse than under Eakins. Some metrics are worse under Eakins, true. That’s the difference.

    This entire post is conjecture.

    Just to point one thing out: Zone entries.

    Which coach had more zone entries with possession per game?

    Zone entries with speed?

    Really?

  108. v4ance says:

    http://espn.go.com/blog/nhl/post/_/id/34198/rumblings-bettman-gives-update-on-salary-cap-expansion-and-outdoor-games

    ” At 82 cents(CDN $), the cap would be $72.2 million and at 80 cents, the cap would be $71.7 million.

    Perhaps. But if the NHLPA fears rising escrow costs for its players, it’s not out of the question for the union to balk at the 5 percent inflator. In which case, a $72 million cap suddenly becomes $68.4 million instead.

    As i mentioned in a previous thread… expect some carnage!

    NYR, CHI, BOS and LAK would all be screwed

  109. frjohnk says:

    russ99: Those numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt.

    We’re using speed more on the zone entry, we’re getting in clear areas of the ice to take less shots in the box with less traffic, and putting more pressure on the opposing keeper.

    Under Eakins, we’d dump and cycle ad nauseum and take more shots in high-traffic areas after the opposing 4-man defensive box had been set up. More shots, less shots where we were challenging the opposing keeper.

    Plus better record with Hall and Pouliot hurt.

    No matter what the fancystats say, you can’t say that they are actually worse than under Eakins. Some metrics are worse under Eakins, true. That’s the difference.

    Some of fancy stats show Nelson ahead, others show Eakins ahead.

    But the main issue, that Woodguy alluded to earlier, is the roster.

    Many players put into positions 1 spot or more too high.

    The roster is the main issue.

    Has been for quite sometime.

    But I believe there is a light at the end of tunnel. And it’s not a train.

  110. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk: Staples is getting blasted in the comments section.

    But he is not wrong.

    Another stat.I don’t have the last 3 games for Nelson

    Eakins box shots per game 14.58
    Perimeter shots per game 15.3

    Nelson box shots per game 10.5
    Perimeter shots per game 15.7

    Oilers were better with Eakins at getting to tough areas to get shots away.This is collaborated in the above stat.And also with scoring chances from war on ice and the stats that the cult of hockey guys keep.

    With that said, Nelson has had to deal with injuries to his line up and he was thrust into coaching with this line up mid season.Might be better to see Nelson with a healthy lineup and a training camp.

    Staples mentions that the oilers play 14 of their last 21 against the west.So this will be a good test for Nelson.

    On a related note, I work with a guy who is best friends with Colby Armstrong.I ran into Colby yesterday and I asked him about Nelson as Nelson was an assistant coach with the Thrashers in 09-10 when Colby was there.Colby had nothing but good things to say about Nelson.

    Wait until they play the West without Petry.

    The Show Gongs.

  111. oliveoilers says:

    Unicorns: I think Ricki’s point is about strength. Petry is tall but he’s skinny. Marincin skinny. Schultz Scrawny. Being tall doesn’t mean strong. It doesn’t mean they aren’t good players, but it leaves a dimension out of their games, and I think if they each added 10 lbs they would have more comfort with being more aggressive which would make MacLoweson giggle like a 13 year old girl, and likely end the scorn. Or at least reduce it to scowling.

    Ference is strong, he’s solid for his height, but he’s playing a power game at a 4+ inch 40 lb disadvantage. If he was a fast elusive forward or defense with puck skills his height/weight would be fine.

    Karlssons and Keiths are rare. Bobby Orr was built like a tank. Coffey too. Doughty is. It’s not definitive but I agree valid.

    Understood, but are we leaning toward the ‘a big man will always beat a good small man’ argument? I lean towards the ‘a good player will always beat a bad player’ direction.

    Hasn’t the last x amount of years drafting coke machines that can’t play taught us anything? The Oilers management like the size=skill equation.

    Hey Lawson, how’s it going? Excited to be drafted….?

  112. G Money says:

    Best “Ricki Stat” ever, and the most pithy DMW post in quite some time (and that’s saying something).

    Russ99 and FrJohnK:

    Just as a note, now that I have my massive Corsi event database running and can pull out whatever data I want pretty painlessly …

    I ran a script to check “Tip-In” shots under Eakins and under Nelson. It’s a small number – up until a few games ago, both teams had 40 tip-ins, but Eakins did it in a lot more games than Nelson did. Nelson’s team tip-in shot rate is about 12% higher.

  113. Eh Team says:

    It’s hard to evaluate Nelson or compare him to Eakins at this point as the Oiler roster is so depleted, Take away Petry and it will be a wonder if they are in any games at all.

    He’s got 3 lines at most, including a worn out Gordon and beat up Hendricks. Then a 4th line (without Lander) that is an average AHL line. Plus Scrivens and Fasth really haven’t been any better for Nelson than they were for Eakins,

    I hope they aren’t going to judge Nelson on the rest of the year because it could be pretty ugly no matter how well he coaches. I’d really like to see him get a full shot next year.

  114. LMHF#1 says:

    Paper – Eakins reputation as a hockey player seems to be bigger than reality. People treat him as if he was a 500+ game journeyman – he was not. 120 games and ZERO goals in the bigs. This speaks to his hockey knowledge to me because he clearly wasn’t physically challenged, but even then…

    I find it very odd how the term “smart guy” is being used around here. Is there some specific context I’m missing because none of Eakins, MacTavish or the others come off as smart people. Not in the sense of “if I encountered this person in every day life are they smart?” anyway. Being able to give an interview, being verbose and able to express a thought does not equal “smart”. Maybe by the usual standards of hockey commentary they are comparatively more well spoken, but that doesn’t mean they get the concepts, logic, reasoning analysis etc. We routinely point out the fact that it appears they do not get things. This would make them the opposite of smart. Marching into a new situation as a rookie coach and attempting to be a big shot is not smart. MacTavish’s presser before the Eakins firing was oodles of not smart, not to mention showing a complete inability to read the “room” he was in (fans + a filter through the media). This happens all the time.

  115. frjohnk says:

    v4ance:
    http://espn.go.com/blog/nhl/post/_/id/34198/rumblings-bettman-gives-update-on-salary-cap-expansion-and-outdoor-games

    ” At 82 cents(CDN $), the cap would be $72.2 million and at 80 cents, the cap would be $71.7 million.


    Perhaps. But if the NHLPA fears rising escrow costs for its players, it’s not out of the question for the union to balk at the 5 percent inflator. In which case, a $72 million cap suddenly becomes $68.4 million instead.

    As i mentioned in a previous thread… expect some carnage!

    Wow. I calculated about 8-10 teams in cap hell with a cap at $72 million.

    At $68 million even Oilers would be sweating a bit. Could pay 1 UFA $5-6M. Rest would be value contracts.

    Not a good year to be a ufa and hoping to hit a home run with a contender.

  116. HugThePost says:

    Not only will fans be watching to see what moves MacT (or his replacement) makes this summer to plug the massive gaping hemorrhaging holes in the line-up, you know the players on the team will be to.

    If / when the Oilers ice another re-build quality team in October, how long will it take for someone like Hall to pull the cord and ask out of here?

    How is Katz going to sell tickets at his premium prices to his Downtown palace with a lottery team and perhaps a notable name or two bailing out of this mess in the middle of a downturn in the local economy?

    Maybe that will be enough for him to get that part of his empire in order.

  117. Unicorns says:

    Lowetide: I’d argue that after about No. 60, it’s a better bet to trade your third for two fourths, etc. They’re all basically the same after a certain number.

    Right, I forgot to mention I was thinking trade up to second rounder as I used in the example. True that from the 3rd down it’s a crapshoot. I see a second as likely better than all of 3 down because you’re still in somewhat identifiable and more heavily scouted quality. 4 down for sure.

  118. LMHF#1 says:

    frjohnk: Some of fancy stats show Nelson ahead, others show Eakins ahead.

    But the main issue, that Woodguy alluded to earlier, is the roster.

    Many players put into positions 1 spot or more too high.

    The roster is the main issue.

    Has been for quite sometime.

    But I believe there is a light at the end of tunnel. And it’s not a train.

    One problem was eliminated. There are more to attend to. Always rectify your problems and improve.

    Just like even if it is decided Nelson is a good coach, if a better one becomes available this summer, you hire that coach. Doesn’t mean that’s “the problem”, just means you’re looking to improve. Always improve. Every damn day.

  119. v4ance says:

    frjohnk,

    The thing is that LeBrun wrote that article a month ago when the Canadian dollar was hovering at 80 cents. If the Canadian dollar weakens even more thru to August(~78 cents), even with the 5% inflator, the cap could be set at $71 million under the BEST case scenario.

  120. Halfwise says:

    Ca$h-Money!: Interesting that they have the Sharks in the “one foot in camp” and closer to the league bottom than the top.Aren’t they pretty much owned by an analytics firm?

    It’s San Jose. I drove past the Citrix office there and was appalled that the parking lot had cars in it.

  121. Unicorns says:

    oliveoilers: Unic

    The best player wins. I don’t advocate size, I advocate speed, consistent assertiveness and strength. I actually am wary of big players because I value quickness.

    While coke machines ruin hockey teams, I also don’t like watching undersized or weak players be ineffective because they lack what that player type needs to be useful in any situation. If your weak and/or small you have to get it done with speed, technique and skill.

    The Oilers are a small team in key positions and that in itself doesn’t matter, but when it goes with not being able to do what needs to be done to win you get, well, the Oilers. It’s not a lack of skill that hurts them, they are playing positionally better, it’s losing the little battles.

  122. PDO says:

    frjohnk:

    Once Petry is traded we are going to be disappointed with the return.

    If a body is coming back, Id guess it would be recent 2nd and 3rd picks. But most likely nobody that is blowing off the doors.

    My guess is that the return does not turn into a useful NHL player.

    But Id love to be surprised.

    If they’re immovable (and they likely are), I’d buyout all of Purcel, Nikitin and Ference.

    Nothing this summer is more important than cap space.

    I’d also do any trade where you got something back and held what it would cost to buy them out.

  123. G Money says:

    *** NERD ALERT ***

    I continue various random experiments with Temporal Corsi (shot events and the relationship with timing between and time during game).

    Took me quite a while to get the scripts adequately battle hardened just to source the data, so at the moment what I’m doing with that data is mostly exploratory random stuff.

    The Eakins vs Nelson theme is an interesting one to explore. The fancy stats say one thing, the results say another.

    Even dedicated fancystaters (and I include myself in this) seem to perceive something visually better with Nelson. Yak’s joyous play is one thing of note, but so does there appear to be a degree of emotion with the entire team. Yet the stats say worse!

    So I’ve been exploring temporal Corsi to see if there is any resolving power that might add insight in this particular case. No conclusions as yet, but at least one interesting result. I will post four charts (2×2) for Nelson vs Eakins and will be interested to hear your comments, if any.

  124. G Money says:

    First comparison, 5×5 Corsi over Game for Eakins and Nelson. The idea here is to divide the game into buckets of 1 minute, and then display the net 5×5 corsi for ALL games in those buckets. (Specifically the % of events that occurred in that bucket, and whether that was to the good or to the bad). This should show things like how strong a team starts or finishes, good periods and bad, etc.

    So…

    Eakins: http://i.imgur.com/WPizUdH.png

    Nelson: http://i.imgur.com/gjfE1g5.png

    See anything meaningfully different?

    Neither do I.

    You can see the slightly more positive bias in Eakins’ numbers. You can also see how Eakins’ team starts a bit stronger but then has eight straight minutes of negative Corsi, which is probably what adds to the sense of a slow start. It’s not really a slow start, it seems to be just giving up goals easier.

    Not very interesting, other than it confirms what the overall shot measures are saying: Nelson’s team is not better than Eakins’ team, and arguably worse.

    Next up: goals.

  125. G Money says:

    I find the goals result a bit more interesting. Note that this is purely goals for, not goal differential like the previous charts. I wanted to peek into the offense a bit on this one.

    Eakins: http://i.imgur.com/BjAebcw.png

    Nelson: http://i.imgur.com/QzeCCXL.png

    I would call this result “interesting”. Not “definitive”. But interesting.

    Note how there is a marked difference in the character of the curves.

    Nelson’s team has certain points in the game where they score in bunches. Eakins’ distribution looks vaguely Saskatchewanie.

    Are we seeing the difference that ’emotion’ makes in a game? Punches in bunches?

    Could be. Early days, small samples, blah blah blah.

    To have such a difference in the character of the graphs still seems interesting to me.

    Next time on NERD ALERT: will be looking at inter-shot Corsi timings. Confirm or disconfirm that Nelson’s team goes for ‘punches in bunches’ …

  126. frjohnk says:

    G Money: I find the goals result a bit more interesting. Note that this is purely goals for, not goal differential like the previous charts. I wanted to peek into the offense a bit on this one.

    Nice work

  127. spoiler says:

    GMoney

    Maybe you could re-post this data in the new thread, where all the Nerds have gone?

  128. godot10 says:

    Lowetide: I think Oilers list is McDavid, Eichel, Hanifin, Strome

    It had better be!

    #JustSayNoah

  129. rickithebear says:

    What you are very loosely describing here is a bastard form of density.

    Exactly!

    Ideal Short arm/legged D with Footspeed technique.
    VS
    ideal long arm/legged D with lane and box technique.

    The whole point of the list was conversation.

    Defensive chance protection is a lot like line play in football.

    front of the net is mass; center of gravity with leverage play like 2nd level guard/lb confrontation

    primeter engagement is broken into 2 groups.
    -lane and rotation engagement with stick and wing span. like tackle/end engagement.

    – Footspeed and perimeter engagement from a quicker footed D.
    shorter leg length (stride) easier to turn.

    Think of petry; Schultz; Osterele as 260 linemen.
    the 2.85 lb/in + d as 300lb linemen.

    give me D men with
    7’wing spans
    34 inch leg length;
    6’1″height and
    3.00lb/in density
    Chest punch like MIR

  130. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    v4ance:
    frjohnk,

    The thing is that LeBrun wrote that article a month ago when the Canadian dollar was hovering at 80 cents.If the Canadian dollar weakens even more thru to August(~78 cents), even with the 5% inflator, the cap could be set at $71 million under the BEST case scenario.

    Ahem, I’ve been talking about this for a lot longer than a month! Flat to down cap coming.

    The one caveat I have is that the NHL found a way to help out certain teams last time with the compliance buyouts. I do suspect Boston, Philly et al are in Bettman’s ear.

    Nonetheless this is why I am pounding the table on the Ference, Nikitin and Purcell contracts. And why I was so mad about the Schultz overpay last summer.

    I can’t even find my own original post anymore but over 1/3 of the NHL’s revenue came from Canada BEFORE the Rogers contract. The 20 percent decline in the Canadian dollar since then means that the move in the Canadian dollar this fall has gouged 6m dollars at a minimum from hockey related revenues per team.

  131. spoiler says:

    Just want to say thank you LT, for Alyssa. I know seeing her on TV so much in her youth makes you hesitant to use her image, despite her well-known love of hockey.

  132. Pouzar says:

    Not trying to be a wise ass here but why are comparing the fancy stats under Eakins and Nelson?
    Has the latter even had Hall for a game? We know he hasn’t had Perron. What about NN? 😛

    Anyways……….carry on.

  133. spoiler says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”:
    Keep an eye on Barzal in Seattle on the prospect list. He is catching fire at the right time and handily outscoring everyone on his team (he has very little help). Not saying he’s an Oiler target by any means, just that we could be talking about him as a Top 10 pick in about a month if he keeps this up.

    He’s ranked anywhere from 8-12 on most lists (Button is the one outlier at 17), so I’d say the talk of him being a top 10 pick has already begun, lol.

  134. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    spoiler,

    Is he? OK. I haven’t seen all the latest rankings. He seemed to be in the 12-15 range from where I saw. He’s been on fire. I think LT bumped him from 15 to 12 in his latest..

  135. spoiler says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”,

    Here’s a site where you can compare all the more famous rankings on one page. I find it pretty handy. Has some ranking history too, but I wish it went back farther.

  136. godot10 says:

    calgarysux:
    So, Lowetide, what if Petry’s agent bends the team over and asks for $7-8 million a season as both a free agent premium as well as a team suckage premium?The long term cap health of the team has to be kept in mind, you of all people should know that.

    Also, let’s not forget how bad the team is still doing WITH him in the lineup, how much worse can it get without?

    A bogus argument. MacT said that you can’t pay every defensemen $4 million dollars. The problem isn’t with Petry’s agents. The problem is with MacT and Lowe, who don’t think Petry is worth $4 million dollars. They just have no clue about evaluating defensemen and the current market value for defensemen with particular skill sets in terms of salary.

    Lowe and MacT paid Mark Fayne, who is a #5, just under $4 million. They paid Nikitin, who is at best a #5-6, $4.5 million. And then they say their best defensemen, who is a #3, taking on the vaunt with fives and sixes, isn’t worth $4 million, much less $5 million. And MacT’s self-proclaimed hockey soulmate kept benching him, even though a reasonable fan knows that Petry is the best defensemen on the team.

    Fantansizing that the agents are shooting for the moon, when it is well known that Lowe and MacT are lowballing Petry and don’t value him is delusional.

  137. godot10 says:

    supernova: The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”,

    Wasn’t trying to say that Hanifan isn’t a top 3 D just that I haven’t delved into him and top 3 D are supposed to bring Offence, the only knock I have read on him was his lack of O but he is also playing in NCAA as a really young player.

    What lack of offense. He is killing it in the 2nd half of his freshman year in college as a 17-year old against players mostly two to four years older.

    He played a lead role on the D of the US in the world juniors as a 17-year old in a 19-year old tournament Basically only elite D do this. Doughty, Bouwmeester, Fowler, Jones, Ekblad

  138. oliveoilers says:

    rickithebear,

    “give me D men with
    7’wing spans
    34 inch leg length;
    6’1″height and
    3.00lb/in density
    Chest punch like MIR”

    And can skate! Music, as LT puts it!

  139. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    godot10,

    This wasn’t directed at me, was it?

  140. godot10 says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”:
    godot10,

    This wasn’t directed at me, was it?

    supernova, I think.

    Cut imperfectly out of the quote I guess.

  141. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    godot10,

    Ah ok. I’m in your #justsaynoah camp. 13 points last 13 games, too.

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