After the action yesterday, one could reasonably have expected more dominos today. What did we get? I’ll call it a watershed, your mileage may vary. Toronto dealt Daniel Winnick (why didn’t the Oilers ever get him), Jets picked up Jiri Tlusty and the Los Angeles Kings grabbed Andrej Sekera. That’s a lot of U-Hauls, ladies.
— Carolina Hurricanes (@NHLCanes) February 25, 2015
Dean Lombardi didn’t invent poker but he’s on his way to perfecting it. As I understand this deal, it’s a first-round pick (protected) that is a 2015 if LAK make the playoffs, 2016 if they miss. SO, it’s either a selection outside the top 15 this year or next year—that’s my take. The prospect is a former second-round pick but the young man has really struggled in his draft year+1.
What does this mean for Jeff Petry’s value? Well, you’d have to think the young Oilers defender is ‘in the range’ with Sekera’s return but that brings us to another question. What IS the return?
- A draft pick inside the top 30 but likely outside the top 15 overall.
- A struggling former second-round selection.
That’s good value for a rental—Edmonton received the Penguins’ first-round selection and Rob Klinkhammer for 1.5 seasons of David Perron—but it’s also true there’s a lot of ‘ifs and buts’ in that trade. Scott Cullen’s good work tells us a No. 20 overall pick has a 70% chance of playing 100+ NHL games and the average pick at that spot is somewhere between a fringe and regular NHL player. Now, a team will have to wait for the development but it’s pretty clear there is value there, plus the young defender.
CURRENT ESTIMATED TRADE VALUES
- Jeff Petry: I estimated a late second or third (No. 55 to No. 80) based on last season but it now seems (Franson and Sekera deals) we’re talking about a different pay grid for rentals this year. A lot of people are saying ‘first round pick or bust’ but that seems too bullish from here—most felt Sekera was the better player and I’m not willing to state categorically that Lombardi gave up a blue chip prospect. I’ll put the value at No. 25 to No. 50 and a mid-level prospect for Petry—and that’s very aggressive and heavily influenced by recent events.