TRADE WINDOW IS OPEN!

After the action yesterday, one could reasonably have expected more dominos today. What did we get? I’ll call it a watershed, your mileage may vary. Toronto dealt Daniel Winnick (why didn’t the Oilers ever get him), Jets picked up Jiri Tlusty and the Los Angeles Kings grabbed Andrej Sekera. That’s a lot of U-Hauls, ladies.

Dean Lombardi didn’t invent poker but he’s on his way to perfecting it. As I understand this deal, it’s a first-round pick (protected) that is a 2015 if LAK make the playoffs, 2016 if they miss. SO, it’s either a selection outside the top 15 this year or next year—that’s my take. The prospect is a former second-round pick but the young man has really struggled in his draft year+1.

What does this mean for Jeff Petry’s value? Well, you’d have to think the young Oilers defender is ‘in the range’ with Sekera’s return but that brings us to another question. What IS the return?

  • A draft pick inside the top 30 but likely outside the top 15 overall.
  • A struggling former second-round selection.

That’s good value for a rental—Edmonton received the Penguins’ first-round selection and Rob Klinkhammer for 1.5 seasons of David Perron—but it’s also true there’s a lot of ‘ifs and buts’ in that trade. Scott Cullen’s good work tells us a No. 20 overall pick has a 70% chance of playing 100+ NHL games and the average pick at that spot is somewhere between a fringe and regular NHL player. Now, a team will have to wait for the development but it’s pretty clear there is value there, plus the young defender.

CURRENT ESTIMATED TRADE VALUES

    • Jeff Petry: I estimated a late second or third (No. 55 to No. 80) based on last season but it now seems (Franson and Sekera deals) we’re talking about a different pay grid for rentals this year. A lot of people are saying ‘first round pick or bust’ but that seems too bullish from here—most felt Sekera was the better player and I’m not willing to state categorically that Lombardi gave up a blue chip prospect. I’ll put the value at No. 25 to No. 50 and a mid-level prospect for Petry—and that’s very aggressive and heavily influenced by recent events.

Thoughts?

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83 Responses to "TRADE WINDOW IS OPEN!"

  1. Klima's_Bucket says:

    I’ll say it again if the Oilers eat half of Petry’s salary there is zero reason why he can’t fetch a 1st or a really solid almost NHL ready prospect.

  2. slopitch says:

    I just tweeted this but Id think LA liked Sekera more then Petry otherwise MacT would have taken that offer?

  3. misfit says:

    I’ve maintained for a while that a 1st should be the return (now I’m thinking 1st and something), but I’d still rather have Petry.

  4. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Jeff Petry to Tampa Bay.
    Book it.

  5. Ben says:

    It’s hard to imagine Lombardi paying that price without thinking he’s got a great shot to re-sign Sekera.

    Maybe MacT’s recent talks with Arnott have involved setting up a sign-and-trade.

  6. blainer says:

    Petry to Boston for Subban and their third.

  7. Rondo says:

    Could see Detroit, Anaheim, and Tampa Bay willing to trade 1 st round draft picks.

    Don’t see many other teams giving up a first rd pick , main reason to do it is you think you can go to the cup. Perhaps Montreal

  8. Oddspell says:

    Wherever Petry goes, I hope MacT’s verbal about adding pieces at the deadline was on target. I’d like to see us do more than subtract.

  9. misfit says:

    blainer:
    Petry to Boston for Subban and their third.

    Petry is a UFA so it’s a little less of an issue, but nothing worries me more than giving up real live assets for prospect goalies. We could probably get an established starter for the 1st we could get from Petry at the draft or at some other point. So why take the guy who may or may not become a starter 3 years down the road? Is it his .500 NHL sv% that we’ve fallen in love with?

  10. misfit says:

    Oddspell:
    Wherever Petry goes, I hope MacT’s verbal about adding pieces at the deadline was on target. I’d like to see us do more than subtract.

    When I saw what rentals were getting last year, I was calling for us to be buyers instead of sellers. This year it’s much more of a seller’s market.

  11. murray says:

    Hey LT thought it should be pointed our that McKeown was a 2nd round pick 50th of overall last year.

  12. Jon K says:

    Just going to re-post my comment from the end of the other posting as it is relevant.

    Halfwise: Let me get this right.

    If he trades Petry before other trades, “he jumped the gun.”

    If he trades Petry during the other trades, “he panicked, could have held out for more.”

    If he trades Petry after the other trades, “he waited too long.”

    If no deal gets made, “MacT is stubborn and overvalues his players”

    If MacT spends the rest of the season negotiating an extension, “he’s just trying to cover for his negligence”

    What is the scenario where it’s “MacT handled that pretty well”?

    Answering my own question, if it is Petry 5x$5M or Petry for Antti Raantta or Sobotka’s rights plus either a 2015 2nd or any 21 year old prospect with size, speed and a brain, I will say “MacT handled that pretty well”.

    Well, we don’t really know the reaction as the result has yet to occur.

    If Petry gets a $5×5 extension I’ll be ecstatic.

    If Petry gets dealt for a return similar to what we’ve seen for Sekera and the Franson package, then MacT will have handled it well.

    If Petry gets dealt for a B prospect or for 3rd and 5th round picks, then I think we could count the Petry scenario as a negative on MacT’s resume.

    I’ve been a MacT guy going way back. My comment is speculative and should really only be taken as being a sign of uneasiness as major buyers go elsewhere while Petry remains an unsigned asset a few days from the deadline.

    I mean, we saw this sort of general fear realized with the Smyth scenario. Lowe didn’t look to trade him until the absolute last minute and had to accept the collection of junk that NYI reportedly was offering to everyone at the deadline. The result? A few seasons of Nilsson who had the skill but lacked the will (which was the prior report on him, even from his Dad, an Oiler employee), a prospect with upside to be a 3rd/4th line tweener (which Pierre MacGuire correctly noted at the time and lambasted Lowe for), and a 15th overall pick (the best asset in the deal) that the Oilers wasted on a guy who couldn’t skate or defend. Oops.

  13. John Chambers says:

    Rondo,

    Detroit gave up a first for Kyle Quincey which indicates to me it’s in their DNA to pay the same for Petry.

    Another compelling return from the Wings would be former 1st rounder Anthony Mantha. He’s had a meh first season in the AHL, but I’d be delighted if he could be part of the exchange for Petry.

  14. Pajamah says:

    blainer,

    Man I hate goalie prospects. Unless the guy is breaking down the wall in the AHL forcing his GM’s hand, he may as well not even be a prospect.

    Subban hadn’t forced his way to Boston yet, and anointing any goalie a “goalie of the future” is asking for a bag of magic beans.

    Vasilevsky is a better prospect, but you can’t even be sure of him. Raanta has been tied to the Oilers in trade talks and they wanted him when Chicago originally won the day.

    If we’re sure they’re all better than LB in OKC, then sure, pull the trigger, but they’re still all prospects, and as LT says, voodoo

  15. Eastern Oil says:

    blainer:
    Petry to Montreal for Subban and their third.

    Fixed that for you.

  16. John Chambers says:

    slopitch:
    I just tweeted this but Id think LA liked Sekera more then Petry otherwise MacT would have taken that offer?

    Sekara was a left shot replacing Voynov. Lots of teams need right shot D and now that Franson’s off the board (also for a 1st) Petry’s the top prize in that category.

  17. John Chambers says:

    Oddspell:
    Wherever Petry goes, I hope MacT’s verbal about adding pieces at the deadline was on target. I’d like to see us do more than subtract.

    Phoenix is having a fire sale and I’d want to know outside of the lottery pick it would cost to get 2-way centre-on-a-value-contract Martin Hanzal.

    The Perron pick + a second? Pretty compelling for both sides.

  18. spoiler says:

    Jon K: I’ve been a MacT guy going way back. My comment is speculative and should really only be taken as being a sign of uneasiness as major buyers go elsewhere while Petry remains an unsigned asset a few days from the deadline

    Dominoes had to fall before Petry can be dealt. Franson, Sekera, Myers all had better reps than Petry. If Yandle is being dangled, that might be another domino that has to fall.

    Unless of course there’s a GM out there that absolutely loves Petry, but that doesn’t appear to be the case. Not even our own…

  19. Pajamah says:

    John Chambers,

    We picked too high for Mantha but he was one of the prospects that I thought could become Lucic Lite. We all know the Oilers covet that type like nobodies business. I’d like Mantha and a 2nd more than another 1st and a lower rate prospect.

  20. spoiler says:

    John Chambers: Phoenix is having a fire sale and I’d want to know outside of the lottery pick it would cost to get 2-way centre-on-a-value-contract Martin Hanzal.

    The Perron pick + a second? Pretty compelling for both sides.

    Nothing you can offer of reasonable value, if the rumours are true and Arizona wants to keep him for the re-build.

  21. spoiler says:

    Ben:
    It’s hard to imagine Lombardi paying that price without thinking he’s got a great shot to re-sign Sekera.

    Maybe MacT’s recent talks with Arnott have involved setting up a sign-and-trade.

    I’m guessing the recent Cups might have an effect on that shot. I’d feel pretty confident too.

  22. Oddspell says:

    John Chambers,

    I’ve been thinking about a Hanzal deal and I think it’s my absolute best case scenario. If we keep Roy and head into next season with Nuge-Hanzal-Roy-Lander-Gordon then we might not have revisit the whole center depth issue for a long time.

    Now if only we can find ourselves a solid Petry partner.

    …And also a Petry replacement.

    I wonder why GMs don’t deal for a UFA in the weeks leading up to the deadline, try to negotiate and then flip him on the big day if no progress is made. I think that would fit BOLD. Too risky?

  23. Bad Seed says:

    But what about the Couturier rumours? Send PHI Petry and Schultz and call it a day. I know – wishful thinking.

  24. Eustace Matthews '16 says:

    New salary site – haven’t had time to look at it though, but here it is: http://www.spotrac.com/nhl/

  25. spoiler says:

    Jim Matheson @NHLbyMatty · 2h 2 hours ago

    I keep circling back to Det. re Petry because may feel they can sign UFA. Oilers would want Ouellet, Sproul or Marchenko in deal.#oilers.

    Jim Matheson @NHLbyMatty · 2h 2 hours ago

    General consensus is heat’s on Anaheim now that Sekera has gone to LA. They need a D too. Can MacT get 1st from Ducks for Petry?#oilers.

    Jim Matheson @NHLbyMatty · 12m 12 minutes ago

    If Oduya’s inj debilitating for CHI, they’re in on Petry too. As @SportsNetSpec says TBay can deal 1st rounder because have 2.#oilers.

  26. spoiler says:

    Sloan Sports Conf. @SloanSportsConf · 5h 5 hours ago

    Extra skater on for #SSAC15 NHL panel: @dallaseakins joins @mc79hockey @kyledubas @frankprosports @mirtle @katiebakes http://www.sloansportsconference.com/?p=15713

  27. RexLibris says:

    Trade window is open!

    I have something for that: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defenestrations_of_Prague

  28. oliveoilers says:

    I think MacT fumbles; Petry either walks this summer or gets dealt for a panic 3rd at the last minute.

    Also, Bob today was getting us used to the idea of Lawson Crouse by rating him #5 on his list. And if he has him on his list…….

  29. Rondo says:

    If it was true Oilers wanted a 2nd and a prospect , I would think they are circling back. Some teams who wanted Petry will be upset

  30. spoiler says:

    Helene Elliott @helenenothelen · 33m 33 minutes ago

    Lombardi said he hasn’t talked to Sekera about staying long-term. Did not get permission to approach him before trade.

    Helene Elliott @helenenothelen · 32m 32 minutes ago

    Lombardi said he paid steep price. ‘given how far they’ve gone and how responded to adversity lends itself to being more aggressive.

  31. spoiler says:

    spoiler:
    Sloan Sports Conf. @SloanSportsConf· 5h5 hours ago

    Extra skater on for #SSAC15 NHL panel: @dallaseakins joins @mc79hockey @kyledubas @frankprosports @mirtle @katiebakes http://www.sloansportsconference.com/?p=15713

    Godot runs out to buy tickets.

  32. Eastern Oil says:

    David Staples ‏@dstaples 2h2 hours ago
    @SportsnetSpec Anyone know how keen Oil were to sign Petry last summer? Or did they essentially pick Nikitin/Fayne over him? @sunterryjones

    Mark Spector ‏@SportsnetSpec 17m17 minutes ago
    @dstaples You saw him play. Would have required major commitment by EDM. He didn’t deserve 1. Playing best now in UFA season.

    speeds ‏@hockeysymposium 16m16 minutes ago
    @SportsnetSpec @dstaples he was worth a long term contract 3 years ago, not only last summer.

    Terry Jones ‏@sunterryjones 16m16 minutes ago
    @SportsnetSpec @dstaples Boy, sure a lot of people in Edmonton who forget that.

    If Petry was so bad last year, who was any good on the blue line at all?

  33. Rondo says:

    Sam Bennett 1 goal 2A so far.

  34. Магия 10 says:

    Jon K: If Petry gets a $5×5 extension I’ll be ecstatic.

    But would Petry? If you’re setting posts in advance to judge by. How much is a bad signing?

    You can be certain that others – who would not go up to a 30M contract – will be quite certain that MacT was too obtuse to get the 5X5 deal that just needed ink. So of course the real error was the 1 year contract. Because of course everyone knows there was a fair long term deal there at whatever amount you want just waiting for ink.

  35. spoiler says:

    Didn’t see this posted earlier today. Just tremendous:

    Edmonton Oilers @EdmontonOilers · 7h 7 hours ago

    Joey Moss will be inducted into the Alberta Sports Hall of Fame this year! Congrats to a true #Oilers legend!

  36. spoiler says:

    Aaron Portzline @Aportzline · 11h 11 hours ago

    Told James Wisniewski’s list of 10 no-trade teams was put together in a way to make it more difficult for #CBJ to trade. In other words …

    Aaron Portzline @Aportzline · 11h 11 hours ago

    … teams with no cap room and no need for offensive defensemen were approved, while teams with glaring need/cap room were on no-trade list.

  37. book¡je says:

    I expect that the Oilers trade Petry away for a modest return only to see him come back with a 0.924 save percentage.

  38. McSorley33 says:

    Significant price paid by Kings…..

    The bar is set for Petry……1st round pick 2015 and a B prospect.

    I did not expect a rental to fetch that much….

  39. spoiler says:

    Rondo:
    Sam Bennett 1 goal2Aso far.

    They’re up 7-3, he personally has 3 points and he’s a -1.

    McDavid with 3 points so far tonight too. 4-2 Erie

    And most importantly, Platzer with a goal tonight too as OSA leads Barrie 2-0.

  40. nelson88 says:

    crouse with 2G including one short handed.

  41. Don't Bishai says:

    I say deal Petry to the Red Wings for a conditional first rounder, with the condition being that we get to borrow the Red Wings’ GM and scouts when we use the pick.

  42. Eustace Matthews '16 says:

    nelson88:
    crouse with 2G including one short handed.

    Wait – I’ve seen this movie before…

  43. fifthcartel says:

    Stauffer just said on Inside Sports that the Oilers offered Nikitin a 3 year deal at a little under what he has now, but decided on the two-year contract.

    That would have been very disappointing.

    Also, said he thinks Petry for sure gets a 2nd round pick, might get a 1st round pick if they package him with one of the 3rds (St. Louis’ was mentioned).

    edit: Mentioned Montreal, Tampa, and Chicago as the three that have the most interest.

    Asked who will replace Petry and said Oesterle will get a look, wouldn’t surprise him Andrew Miller and Curtis Hamilton might get a look as well.

    Some texter asked about Dion and Boychuk, but Bob said doesn’t see it with Phaneuf, and that Boychuk will probably sign with NYI.

  44. stush18 says:

    I still think itll be sproul and detroit second rounder.

  45. Eustace Matthews '16 says:

    Eustace Matthews ’16:
    New salary site – haven’t had time to look at it though, but here it is: http://www.spotrac.com/nhl/

    That site is awful. Just awful.

  46. blainer says:

    Eastern Oil: Fixed that for you.

    LOL..like that one too.. Agreed goalies are difficult to predict. I would like to see A qualified starter brought in next year and two solid goalies in the A. Not interested in signing goalies like Backman who will never make the bigs…just spinning our wheels with goalies like that .

    We need 22 year old goalies that could step into the NHL when needed… I would like to see more drafted in the late rounds as well. Get as many as possible to ensure we never have to go through this nightmare again. Just look what Price and Rinne can do for a team. The more prospects the better. THE NUMBER 1 position of importance on every team IMO…

  47. spoiler says:

    per Matheson new article up:

    The Canadiens covet Petry to play with Alexei Emelin on a second defence pair in the wide-open East, where there is no clear-cut Cup contender threat. They may not want to deal their two young defencemen, Nathan Beaulieu or Jared Tinordi, in any deal for Petry. They reportedly have offered their 2013 first-round pick, winger Michael McCarron (25th overall) to the Coyotes for the shutdown D Michalek.

    McCarron, 19, is huge (six-foot-six, 225 pounds) and playing for the Ontario Hockey League’s Oshawa Generals. He’s got 60 points in 41 games.

  48. Snowman says:

    fifthcartel,

    I’m beginning to think MacT has a problem assessing blueliners…. What does everyone else think of this notion?

  49. thejonrmcleod says:

    spoiler:
    Sloan Sports Conf. @SloanSportsConf· 5h5 hours ago

    Extra skater on for #SSAC15 NHL panel: @dallaseakins joins @mc79hockey @kyledubas @frankprosports @mirtle @katiebakes http://www.sloansportsconference.com/?p=15713

    Plan for that session to go into overtime.

  50. Eustace Matthews '16 says:

    Snowman,

    I believe there’s a good chance that someone above the GM (Lowe, Katz, Katz’ son) is having a negative influence on anything that happens within the org.

    Either that, or they’re planning on tanking until fall 2016 – regardless of the new draft rules governing lotto-determined spots 1 – 3 for the 2016 draft.

  51. Snowman says:

    Eustace Matthews ’16:

    I believe there’s a good chance that someone above the GM (Lowe, Katz, Katz’ son) is having a negative influence on anything that happens within the org.

    Either that, or they’re planning on tanking until fall 2016 – regardless of the new draft rules governing lotto-determined spots 1 – 3 for the 2016 draft.

    In Nikitin’s case I have a feeling its more Howson. In general for the organization though, do you really think there’s a negative influence or do you think that collectively they (MacT, Lowe, Howson, Katz etc) are just not that good at managing a hockey team?

    What I mean by this is, do you think there is someone in the organization that said something like “Nikitin might be too slow and not that good at Defense (the rational good influence)” and then someone else said “Yes I do, but he might get faster and better on our team (the bad, influence)”

    I think it goes more like “How does everyone feel about Nikitin?” and then everyone says “He is soooo much better than Petry”. No bad influence, just poor judgement by everyone.

  52. rickithebear says:

    LT: there are big Forwards with 60pt age based NHLE ranked as low as 40.
    a top 5 of the draft depth @ 40.

    The only risk is thinking you are smarter than the math and video.

  53. stush18 says:

    Snowman,

    I honestly think that they compared him to what we had the last few years. And ya he looks like a better dman then fraser or belov or smid. He has a history of points and is realtively young.

    Im holding out hope he plays better next year. Will he match his contract? No. But i imagine playing injured nd out of shape all year on a new team hasnt helped.

  54. Snowman says:

    stush18,

    I agree that’s probably what they did and that’s why I think there’s a major problem for three reasons.

    1. Your standard of comparison shouldn’t be what hasn’t worked. It should be what works on the best teams.

    2. He will very likely never cover his contract and MacT negotiated that contract.

    3. The player came to the team out of shape which is 100% on the player. Should he have played injured? No. Should have been asked to play injured? No. Were there better options while he was playing injured that were not utilized? Yes. Were there better players in better shape coming into camp? Yes.

    As LT and others have said, this organization makes decisions based on things other than winning hockey games. If I can add to that, they compound that by having a poor established level of judgement.

  55. Eustace Matthews '16 says:

    Snowman,

    It seems that the string of poor decisions coincided with the beginning of the Katz era (whale hunting Hossa while letting GlenX walk is my earliest recollection, iirc).

    We’re on the third GM under his watch, with only a small variance in blunder/365 stats (there’s more turnover if you consider assistant GMs like Howson). The GM who started under Katz’ watch, actually pulled off some pretty good moves with EIG ownership (Pronger, Peca, Rollie) despite limited budget.

    I’m only pulling this from memory, but as I said ‘I believe there’s a good chance…’ If you’ve read anything about Wang meddling in the Islanders’ business, this becomes a more frightening possibility.

    Sure, the ‘groupthink dynamic’ is probably a more realistic reason, and more importantly – it gives fans a little more hope that the Oilers mgmt will finally ‘get it right’ one day. I guess we’ll need to throw another two or three GMs on the pile before we can establish some connection to this mess being ownership related.

  56. grim.oil says:

    John Chambers,

    Detroit is Very high on Mantha. He was a goal per game guy in the juniors. Thats right goal not points. He is big but to say Lucic is misleading. If he blossoms into the hype around him he will score more than Lucic but not be as physical. Was supposed to get a shot on the top line in Detroit this year but got injured. So far he is struggling in the AHL. Highly doubt Detroit trades him though his value may have dropped slightly. I got him in a deep keeper pool just to piss off my buddy who is a Detroit fan so I have been paying attention to him. He currently has 10-12-22 in 43 games with Grand Rapids this season.

  57. RexLibris says:

    Kane out three months, per TSN.

  58. RexLibris says:

    Ha.

    Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie 1h1 hour ago

    “@NHLonNBCSports: FUN FACT: On this day 38 yrs ago, Slap Shot released. …makes sense. ” Should be a stat holiday.

  59. RexLibris says:

    Cullen’s Trade Deadline playbook for the WC. http://www.tsn.ca/trade-deadline-playbook-west-1.215814

    Oilers excerpt: The Plan: Another year, another lottery pick coming for the Oilers and they don’t have a lot of obvious trade chips, aside from Petry, their most-reliable defender who still appears to be on his way out of town.

    EC playbook: http://www.tsn.ca/trade-deadline-playbook-east-1.215823

  60. RexLibris says:

    Winnik to the Penguins for a prospect a ’15 4th and a ’16 2nd.

    Nice haul.

  61. Snowman says:

    Eustace Matthews ’16,

    Hmm.. that’s something to think about for sure. I’m going to have to think about that.

  62. Eustace Matthews '16 says:

    G Money:
    Fancy stats, not just for hockey anymore:

    http://metronews.ca/news/calgary/1296631/rigorous-analysis-ranking-downtown-donairs-spirals-through-corporate-calgary/

    Three things I look for:

    spice/60

    garlic-for

    low mort/100,000

  63. Gret99zky says:

    Eustace Matthews ’16:
    Snowman,

    It seems that the string of poor decisions coincided with the beginning of the Katz era (whale hunting Hossa while letting GlenX walk is my earliest recollection, iirc).

    We’re on the third GM under his watch, with only a small variance in blunder/365 stats (there’s more turnover if you consider assistant GMs like Howson). The GM who started under Katz’ watch, actually pulled off some pretty good moves with EIG ownership (Pronger, Peca, Rollie) despite limited budget.

    I’m only pulling this from memory, but as I said ‘I believe there’s a good chance…’ If you’ve read anything about Wang meddling in the Islanders’ business, this becomes a more frightening possibility.

    Sure, the ‘groupthink dynamic’ is probably a more realistic reason, and more importantly – it gives fans a little more hope that the Oilers mgmt will finally ‘get it right’ one day. I guess we’ll need to throw another two or three GMs on the pile before we can establish some connection to this mess being ownership related.

    After what MacT has gone through, does he willing join an org, as a GM, whose owner is going to handcuff him?

    LT has touched on this before, I believe.

    I bet Katz is more hands off than Lowe.

  64. cabbiesmacker says:

    spoiler:
    Sloan Sports Conf. @SloanSportsConf· 5h5 hours ago

    Extra skater on for #SSAC15 NHL panel: @dallaseakins joins @mc79hockey @kyledubas @frankprosports @mirtle @katiebakes http://www.sloansportsconference.com/?p=15713

    Myrtle and Dellow are doing stats for the South Side Athletic Club now? Excellent.

  65. cabbiesmacker says:

    RexLibris:
    Kane out three months, per TSN.

    Broken collarbone shouldn’t take that long to heal and the surgery went well according to the Doctors.

    More than likely he’s gone for the season anyways being that the Hawks would have to make the West finals which they most likely won’t.

  66. cabbiesmacker says:

    spoiler:
    per Matheson new article up:

    The Canadiens covet Petry to play with Alexei Emelin on a second defence pair in the wide-open East, . They reportedly have offered their 2013 first-round pick, winger Michael McCarron (25th overall) to the Coyotes for the shutdown D Michalek.

    2013 first rounder? That’s sporting of them. I bet MacTavish would go for that.

  67. Магия 10 says:

    Eustace Matthews ’16: It seems that the string of poor decisions coincided with the beginning of the Katz era (whale hunting Hossa while letting GlenX walk is my earliest recollection, iirc).

    Can’t blame Katz for the worst of the whale hunts. i.e the Vanek offer sheet which would have cost us our 2 best players today. That was Lowe swinging for the fences when EIG was split on his extension.

  68. JohnnyRocket says:

    ive finally thought of a way MacT can win the Petry trade! Get a 2015 1st rounder from a team that just misses the playoffs, win the draft lottery with that pick, then draft McDavid AND Eichel, and then sign Petry in the offseason. Bonus points if they trade with Calgary!

  69. Eustace Matthews '16 says:

    Магия 10: Vanek offer sheet

    Good point. That was 2007.

    Wasn’t the sale to Katz rumoured for some time before it went through though? I seem to remember someone arguing that there still could have been an influence there.

  70. Eustace Matthews '16 says:

    Gret99zky: After what MacT has gone through, does he willing join an org, as a GM, whose owner is going to handcuff him?

    Does he naively think he can gain enough influence (maybe losing a lot of poker in the bat cave), and gain some traction in the GMs chair? I think he could.

    Does he turn down a job like this anywhere, under any circumstances? I think not.

    Does he have Lowe’s word that he’ll try his best to sway Katz in some big decisions? Again, a possibility.

    Maybe, maybe not. But questioning the meddling theory based on ‘why would MacT accept those employment conditions’ doesn’t really answer anything. It casts doubt, which I’ve already conceded is there. The group-think syndrome carries weight (but alas, no Guerin).

    I’m only suggesting it as a distinct possibility, that I feel, can’t be ruled out yet. I’m also not privy to anyone’s research into the matter, so I’ll be more than willing to accept that I’m wrong if someone can show me that blunder/365 hasn’t risen sharply since ’08.

  71. Numenius says:

    Some people were asking about the sv% difference between Eakins and Nelson on the other thread, thinking that Nelson’s was no better. This prompted me to make the following chart for ease of comparison on a number of stats. I separated Eakins last year from Eakins this year since there are fundamental differences.

    Numbers are from war-on-ice: Sv% Sh% CF% G+/- (beware some small sample sizes)

    Eakins ’13-’14 82 games
    5×5 .913 7.7 44.3 -50
    5×4 .853 12.5 86.1 34 (11 shorties against)
    4×5 .888 6.2 7.8 -47 (G+/- 7th worst in league) (3 shorties for, 50 PPGs against)
    All .901 9.0 44.6 -68

    Eakins ’14-’15 31 games
    5×5 .902 6.5 50.9 -25
    5×4 .750 9.3 90 7 (5 shorties against)
    4×5 .860 10.0 10.0 -16 (G+/- 11th worst in league) (2 shorties for, 18 PPGs against)
    All .885 7.4 50.9 -38

    Nelson ’14-’15 26 games
    5×5 .909 7.3 45.7 -20
    5×4 1.000 13.2 90.9 14 (no shorties against!)
    4×5 .830 15.4 10.9 -13 (G+/- 9th worst in league over that time) (2 shorties for, 15 PPGs against)
    All .899 8.8 47.8 -18

    Observations and conclusions:
    1. It is actually the case that Eakins had slightly worse overall sv% this year than Nelson (.885 vs. .899). Eakins also had a slightly lower 5×5 sv% than Nelson (.902 vs. .909). This suggests it is reasonable to say Eakins was let down by goalies this year. But the difference is not as much as one might think, as one might think Nelson had an overall sv% of over .900. Note that Eakins’ overall sh% this year was significantly worst than Nelson’s (7.4 vs 8.8).

    2. Interestingly, Eakins had the same or just slightly higher overall sv% last year (.901 vs. .899, and 5×5 was .913 vs .909), although if we split the year into pre-/post-Scrivens (>Jan. 15<), we get lower sv% pre- at .889 (9.4 Sh%, PDO 98.3) and higher sv% post at .917 (8.4 Sh%, PDO 100.1). So one can't say that Eakins was let down by goalies last year taken as a whole. The most one can say is that he was let down by goalies in the first half of the year, but then one has to add he was bailed out by goalies in the second half of the year. Eakins overall sh% last year was also slightly better than Nelson (9.0 vs. 8.8), meaning his overall PDO was also slightly better.

    3. The most significant difference in sv% has been on the PP. Not only has Nelson's sv% been better, it's been perfect, not allowing a single shortie against (1.000 sv%). Eakins' teams, on the other hand, let in 5 shorties in 31 games this year (a dismal .750 sv%) and 11 in 82 last year (.853 sv%). Talk about demoralizing. The .750 was the worst in the NHL by far at the time (next was .812). Interesting that the PP has not only been better in shot attempts for, as G Money pointed out, but also in sv% and not giving up shorties. More on this later. As far as Sh% goes, Nelson has a significant advantage over Eakins this year (13.2 vs. 9.3), but not last year (13.2 vs. 12.5). CF% isn't a very useful stat for PP without actual numbers, but compared with Eakins this year, it's about the same (90.9 vs. 90.7), and compared with last year Nelson is better off (90.9 vs 86.1 (Oilers 3rd worst in NHL)).

    4. Nelson's 5×5 CF% is worse than Eakins this year (45.7 vs. 50.9) (as we knew), but is slightly better than Eakins last year (45.7 vs. 44.3). Countering that, Nelson's 5×5 PDO is better than Eakins this year (.909 7.3 vs .902 6.5 (sv%+sh% you do the math)), but is worse than Eakins last year (.909 7.3 vs. .913 7.7).

    5. Nelson's PK isn't significantly better or worse in terms of G+/-. His is 9th worst in the NHL, which is better than Eakins'13-'14 (7th worst) and worse than Eakins'14-'15 (11th worst). This isn’t a very useful stat in itself, though, because it depends on the number of penalties you take. Interesting that his PK sv% is worse than Eakins of both years (.830 vs. .860 and .880), but his PK sh% is a lot better (15.4% vs. 10.0 and 6.2). That means his PK PDO is still higher than both Eakins' years (98.4 vs. 96.0 and 94.2).

    6. Nelson’s overall G+/- is 2 goals better than his 5×5 G+/- (-18 vs -20) and this a huge difference compared with both Eakins’ years. Eakins’13-’14 lost 18 goals (-50 to -68) and Eakins ’14-’15 lost 13 goals (-25 to -38). Nelson’s better numbers on this front will be due to a combination of the better PP G+/- and fewer empty net goals.

    Feel free to make other observations. That’s all I got right now.

    Can we conclude anything about Eakins and Nelson about this?

    Well as I suggested above, since Eakins' overall sv% and sh% from last year were just slightly better than Nelson's, we can conclude that he was not let down by goalies last year (taken as a whole) compared with Nelson, nor by sh%, nor by PDO generally. At most we can conclude he was let down this year in these areas.

    Here's a more controversial and speculative conclusion that I submit for discussion: Eakins' poor sv% on the PP both years (.853 and .750) in comparison with Nelson's (1.000) could be something that Eakins was at least partially responsible for. The argument would be that Eakins was at least partially at fault for the bad PP that gave up a lot of 5 bell chances against, chances that made for a low sv%. This low sv% would not have been completely the goalie's fault, since they were from an inordinate amount of 5 bell chances, nor would it have been completely the skaters fault because the PP had been good in previous years and is good now again with mostly the same players. Thus, the bad sv% on the PP was at least partially Eakins' fault.

  72. GCW_69 says:

    Numenius: 4. Nelson’s 5×5 CF% is worse than Eakins this year (45.7 vs. 50.9) (as we knew), but is slightly better than Eakins last year (45.7 vs. 44.3). Countering that, Nelson’s 5×5 PDO is better than Eakins this year (.909 7.3 vs .902 6.5 (sv%+sh% you do the math)), but is worse than Eakins last year (.909 7.3 vs. .913 7.7).

    The team under Nelson is getting killed when tied. They play better with the lead (and have it more often) and play about the same when trailing.

    Eakins (31 games) vs Nelson (last 25 games) in CF%

    Situation. Eakins Nelson

    Down 2 or more: 54.7 51.1

    Down 1: 53.6 52.6

    Tied 51.2 43.9

    Up 1: 39.9 44.5

    Up 2 or more: 36.3 44.6

    The gap when tied has been growing, especially since Hall went down. This could be injury driven, but man that’s a bad number when tied. 2nd worse in the NHL.

    In fairness, the performance with the lead has improved dramatically under Nelson. Eakins was 25th with a one goal lead and 28th with a 2 goal lead where as Nelson is 17th and 11th.

  73. kinger_OIL says:

    I’ve been thinking about the whole: trading away players at UFA, and it is a strange system that doesn’t allow teams to figure out if they can sign the player long-term they are picking up in late Feb/March, and therefore the value of the player to their existing team is massively discounted. I suppose from the NHLPA perspective it’s probably in the players interest to have these bidding wars, rental, free-agent perspectives, but I’d think for the league, and even from a fan trading excitement perspective, wouldn’t it be better if for instance Petry could be traded to another team for “full value” (i.e. and signing a new contract). Or would that mean less trades at deadlines?

  74. frjohnk says:

    GCW_69: The team under Nelson is getting killed when tied.They play better with the lead (and have it more often) and play about the same when trailing.

    Eakins (31 games) vs Nelson (last 25 games) in CF%

    Situation.EakinsNelson

    Down 2 or more:54.751.1

    Down 1:53.652.6

    Tied51.243.9

    Up 1:39.944.5

    Up 2 or more:36.344.6

    The gap when tied has been growing, especially since Hall went down.This could be injury driven, but man that’s a bad number when tied.2nd worse in the NHL.

    In fairness, the performance with the lead has improved dramatically under Nelson. Eakins was 25th with a one goal lead and 28th with a 2 goal lead where as Nelson is 17th and 11th.

    Good stuff sir.

    I think when we all look at the Eakins vs Nelson debate, the other issues can get overlooked..

    Yeah we can blame injuries, Hall was only healthy for the first 9 games. Eberle was injured in training camp and it affected him for two months. RNH hurt his back in the fight and was not 100% for a couple of weeks. Perron and his wonky hip were not even close to last year levels. Pouliot has been out for both coaches. Nikitin has been injured for most of the year.

    Most players are trying to punch above their weight, and we shouldn’t be surprised at the results.

    The biggest issue is that the roster is just not good enough.

  75. Dicky94 says:

    When can teams start to sign college free agents? Also…I think the Oil have a chance right now to move out a few more players other than Petry. Mac should be pushing Purcell on Chicago and I think Ferrence might be moved to a contender if he wants to go.

  76. cabbiesmacker says:

    Dicky94:
    . Mac should be pushing Purcell on Chicago

    Why would the Hawks be even remotely interested in Purcell?

  77. Chris says:

    In fairness to Nelson having Lander, Pouliot and Hall out at the same time was fairly difficult for the team to overcome. A bad team generally does not deal with a lose of depth well. Considering how promptly Hall got injured following Nelson’s hiring I’m not sure an apples to apples comparison of corsi for pre and post Nelson is necessarily fair. Hall has been the player whom as LT says “pushes the river” and he’s been absent essentially the whole time Nelson has coached the team.

  78. PunjabiOil says:

    That’s disappointing news by Stauffer that Boychuk will probably re-sign on the Island.

    Sure you trade Petry – but how do you replace him? We need more quality NHL defenceman, not less.

  79. Chris says:

    For what its’s worth I’ll side with the poster in the previous thread who said the clearest argument for Nelson and contra Eakins is that Nelson is putting the best players available on the ice and in defensible situations. The same could not be said for Eakins. The fact guys like Lander, Marincin and Pakarinen were just left on the shelf by Eakins suggests he had an inferior ability to judge the relative merits of hockey players, or at the very least a disinterest in thoroughly exploring what resources were at his disposal.

  80. Halfwise says:

    Chris:
    For what its’s worth I’ll side with the poster in the previous thread who said the clearest argument for Nelson and contra Eakins is that Nelson is putting the best players available on the ice and in defensible situations. The same could not be said for Eakins. The fact guys like Lander, Marincin and Pakarinen were just left on the shelf by Eakins suggests he had an inferior ability to judge the relative merits of hockey players, or at the very least a disinterest in thoroughly exploring what resources were at his disposal.

    And maybe when the style and system that you want your players to use is hard to learn, you don’t want a lot of new faces at practice.

    Dunno, just fishing for some sort of consistent explanation of choices and behaviors at the coaching and management level.

  81. wheatnoil says:

    Chris:
    For what its’s worth I’ll side with the poster in the previous thread who said the clearest argument for Nelson and contra Eakins is that Nelson is putting the best players available on the ice and in defensible situations. The same could not be said for Eakins. The fact guys like Lander, Marincin and Pakarinen were just left on the shelf by Eakins suggests he had an inferior ability to judge the relative merits of hockey players, or at the very least a disinterest in thoroughly exploring what resources were at his disposal.

    In fairness, I thought Eakins’ deployment of forwards was pretty defensible. He sheltered Drai as best he could and he did a great job running Gordon’s line through the tough minutes in order to give his “scoring” lines the best chance. The Lander question is a reasonable one (and I’ve been a huge supporter of Lander), though Lander certainly didn’t show much in training camp / preseason and his previous NHL games were no better than Will Acton up to that point. As for Pakarinen, keep in mind that this is his first season in North America and he wasn’t obviously better than the other options at forward at the beginning of the year. It’s quite possible that half a season of AHL did him some good (same with an extra half-season for Lander) and that made him more ready when he was called up. Further, Pakarinen started off well, but he hasn’t been amazing lately. It’s been a reasonable depth option, but he only has 3 points in 16 games.

    That said, I completely agree with Eakins’ deployment and roster selection of defensemen left something to be desired. His use of Hunt and pairing him with Schultz, his over-reliance of Schultz, Marincin in the minors, etc… he didn’t have many options on defense, but I don’t believe the Oilers iced their best 6 defensemen on the vast majority of nights.

  82. highgloveside says:

    John Chambers: Sekara was a left shot replacing Voynov. Lots of teams need right shot D and now that Franson’s off the board (also for a 1st) Petry’s the top prize in that category.

    Just so you know, Voynov shoots right. Thats why I thought Petry had a good shot at going there as Doughty and Greene are the only starting RD’s currently playing with the Kings.

    RD’s are more valuable than LD’s because there are a lot less of them.

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