WOWY REVEAL

I think it’s safe to say the Edmonton Oilers are committed to Oscar Klefbom and Justin Schultz, in fact it appears they are willing to move forward with the youngster as a tandem. Is that wise? Let’s have a look.

OSCAR AND JUSTIN

PLAYER KLEFBOM SCHULTZ TOGETHER
5X5 CORSI FOR % 49.7 50.2 52.6
OFFENSIVE ZONE STARTS 55.6 63.2
QUAL COMP No. 5 No. 7
5×5/60 0.77 0.85
5×4/60 2.48

This is fascinating information if the Oilers are in fact planning to proceed in this way. What we have here is a soft minutes pairing that is coming in at about 50% on the shot differential—and they are playing with terrific forwards, best available. If Craig MacTavish plans to proceed with this pairing in this way, that’s fine. However, it’s going to be a very expensive pairing and a big part of the game is going to be left out there for others.

MARTIN AND MARK

PLAYER MARINCIN FAYNE TOGETHER
5X5 CORSI FOR % 49.8 46.0 45.3
OFFENSIVE ZONE STARTS 45.5 43.3
QUAL COMP No. 1 No. 2
5×5/60 0.17 0.32
5×4/60

Here’s part of the current answer to the question about those tough outs. Young Martin Marincin and veteran Mark Fayne are taking on a hard road and honestly the shot differential isn’t tragic. For Marincin, a much maligned (by management) defender to be around 50% Corsi 5×5 for is a damned big story in this season. Alas, as with Jeff Petry, we know it but does Craig MacTavish? The verbal suggests that is not the case.

I was struck by the similarities between this situation and something Travis Yost wrote today about Patrick Wiercioch in Ottawa. We are seeing (and have for some time) things old-style GMs are either slow to recognize or refuse to believe as fact. Part of this is sample size (really, all of the numbers above can be questioned in regard to that) but the Jeff Petry situation added to Martin Marincin’s is a tell.

A tell, as in poker. Martin Marincin is a solid young NHL prospect who, if handled correctly, could be a significant piece for a successful NHL team. Do you believe that team will be Edmonton? It’s an incredible irony and it’s funny: The one guy who might be able to save MacTavish and the GM doesn’t know his name. If it’s so funny, why can’t I laugh? Todd Nelson’s importance to this organization could be staggering. Godspeed, Fonzie.

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56 Responses to "WOWY REVEAL"

  1. Pajamah says:

    Man oh man, that MacT.

    Like you LT I was excited and optimistic to what he could do coming in. Mr. Toby Peterson could seemingly find a Reasoner hanging from every single Sakic Tree. 3rd and 4th liners were drawn to him like the Muses lured sailors. We had our 1st and 2nd line all figured out

    Now with 2 seasons under his belt, I find this man more useless at his job than his predecessor.

    He telegraphs his home run swings and strikes out (bold moves?). Starts hitting doubles (Perron, Gordon, Pouliot) and then can’t manage to even bunt correctly (Drai in the NHL? Not managing a first for Petry when the market was SET)

    And after all that said, his verbal is fucking maddening. Duby can’t play, Draisatl can, our D is good enough, and Schultz is Norris calibre.

    Tambellini was thought a fool. MacT opened his mouth and removed all doubt.

  2. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Don’t like Yost’s usage of CF% next to guys like Letang, Muzzin, Chara, Hjalmarsson, Doughty. Wiercoch looks like a great possession player, but he plays the Schultz minutes and sparingly. Schultz’s CF% there looks great too.

  3. godot10 says:

    If the Oilers are stuck with Ference and NIkitin, it is time to move on from Schultz, say via a Schultz + PIttsburgh 1st for Phaneuf.

    Klefbom, Phaneuf
    Marincin, Fayne
    (Ference, Davidison) (Nikitin,Osterle)

    with Nurse and Hanifan in the AHL.

    #JustSayNoah

  4. bendelson says:

    godot10,

    I’m sure this has been covered but for clarity, Hanifin can play in the AHL next season?

  5. Woodguy says:

    Stats.hockeyanalysis.com now has ZS as a part of the WOWY

    OZS%
    Schultz 62.8%
    With Klefbom 65.4%
    Without Klefbom 61.2%

    Klefbom 56.3%
    With Schultz 65.4%
    Without Schultz 44.6%

    Marincin 45.7%
    With Fayne 42.5%
    Without Fayne 55.4%

    Fayne 43.5%
    With Marincin 42.5%
    Without Marincin 43.9%

    So Klef was getting tougher ZS before being paired with Schultz.

    Marincin was getting easier ZS before being paired with Fayne

    Fayne always get the shaft

    Schultz always gets the gold

  6. admiralmark says:

    Woodguy:

    Schultz always gets the gold

    And yet visually he still doesn’t look like a Norris trophy candidate?
    hmmm funny that.

  7. wheatnoil says:

    Woodguy,

    Makes you wonder what the numbers would look like if Klef and Marincin switched places. There may not be much separating the two.

  8. godot10 says:

    bendelson:
    godot10,

    I’m sure this has been covered but for clarity, Hanifin can play in the AHL next season?

    Hanifan wasn’t drafted out of the CHL.

    John Carlson was drafted out of the USHL, played a year in the CHL, and then in his plus 2 year played in the AHL.

    Jonathon Toews was drafted out of college, stayed one extra year, and then went to the NHL.

    Thomas Vanek was drafted out of college, stayed one extra year, and then in his plus 2 year played in the AHL.

    Rick Dipietro, drafted out of college, split the next year between the NHL and the AHL for the Islanders. Played his draft plus 2 year in the AHL.

    Hanifan might prefer life in Boston to Bakersfield. Either next year would be fine with me.

  9. bendelson says:

    godot10,

    Thanks for the reply.

  10. Woodguy says:

    wheatnoil:
    Woodguy,

    Makes you wonder what the numbers would look like if Klef and Marincin switched places. There may not be much separating the two.

    Over the last 2 years Marincin has played 115min w/ Schultz (53 min this year)

    Together 54%CF w/ 53.4%OZS

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1873&withagainst=true&season=2013-15&sit=5v5

    Compared to Schultz&Klef

    Two years 564 min together (483 this year)

    Together 50.8% CF w/ 57.1%OZS

    For Fun:

    2014/15 only

    Marincin and Schultz (53 min)

    58.9%CF 58.1%OZS

    So yeah, it looks like Marincin can hold Schultz’ hand too.

    MacT still can’t remember his name.

  11. Woodguy says:

    godot10,

    Hanifan wasn’t drafted out of the CHL.

    He wasn’t drafted out of anywhere.

    😀

  12. wheatnoil says:

    Woodguy,

    Interestingly, in 215 min with Schultz, Anton Belov managed:

    49% corsi on only 44.9% zone starts. Belov actually did worse (45.9% corsi in similar zone starts) away from Schultz.

    Apparently the secret to bringing Schultz to break even is pairing him with a large, puck-moving defensemen who can break up the cycles defensively, push the puck up the ice, so that he can work his magic from the offensive blue line in.

  13. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy: Over the last 2 years Marincin has played 115min w/ Schultz (53 min this year)

    Together 54%CF w/ 53.4%OZS

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1873&withagainst=true&season=2013-15&sit=5v5

    Compared to Schultz&Klef

    Two years 564 min together (483 this year)

    Together 50.8% CF w/ 57.1%OZS

    For Fun:

    2014/15 only

    Marincin and Schultz (53 min)

    58.9%CF 58.1%OZS

    So yeah, it looks like Marincin can hold Schultz’ hand too.

    MacT still can’t remember his name.

    You have never said Marincin is dreamy.

    Why do you hate Marincin?

  14. GCW_69 says:

    godot10:
    If the Oilers are stuck with Ference and NIkitin, it is time to move on from Schultz, say via a Schultz + PIttsburgh 1st for Phaneuf.

    Klefbom, Phaneuf
    Marincin, Fayne
    (Ference, Davidison) (Nikitin,Osterle)

    with Nurse and Hanifan in the AHL.

    #JustSayNoah

    If that trade was available, they should take it.

  15. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk: You have never said Marincin is dreamy.

    Why do you hate Marincin?

    Klefbom is visually better.

  16. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy,

    Just bugging you man.

    Marincin will be a great value contract player next year. Eventually MacT will see this.

  17. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy: So yeah, it looks like Marincin can hold Schultz’ hand too.

    MacT still can’t remember his name.

    Building off of this comment, and the general atmosphere of this blog, I think this should be Marincin’s theme song.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h-mi0r0LpXo

    Barring that, it could be LT’s theme song for the blog. We could nominate people for Cliff Clavin and Woody awards for each article.

  18. SVR says:

    If MacT is set on having schultz and klefbom as his top minute pairing, what about adding a veteren UFA like Regehr or Beauchemen to mentor some of these young kids, push Nurse and Hanifan to the AHL, and provide some help for Fayne and Marincin against tougher competition. I bet either could be had for 2 x 3.5. Is that too much?

  19. RexLibris says:

    Flames win in a SO and the Coyotes are up 1-0 with ten minutes remaining in the 2nd.

    Now that LA has traded their 1st rounder, I’m hoping they miss the playoffs. I could almost stomach the Canes winning the lottery if only for the egg on Lombardi’s face as much as I respect him as a GM.

  20. RexLibris says:

    John Lu @JohnLuTSNMtl 12m #Habs D & G vs #LAKings: Markov – Subban Gilbert – Petry Beaulieu – Weaver Tokarski starting Price

    Oilers’ reunion tour.

  21. RexLibris says:

    Gino Reda ‏@GinoRedaTSN 5h5 hours ago

    Throwback Thursday: What’s the ugliest 3rd Jersey of all-time? Here are some candidates. Vote & Results on TH 2night http://fw.to/wAQGAbV

    There are some UGLY candidates being proposed. Thus far I have to say that the Blues’ near-miss jersey is, in my humble opinion, the ugliest. Anyone want to nominate the Flaming Snot from down south?

  22. pocession charge says:

    RexLibris:
    Flames win in a SO and the Coyotes are up 1-0 with ten minutes remaining in the 2nd.

    Now that LA has traded their 1st rounder, I’m hoping they miss the playoffs. I could almost stomach the Canes winning the lottery if only for the egg on Lombardi’s face as much as I respect him as a GM.

    I believe that pick is lottery protected.

  23. RexLibris says:

    pocession charge: I believe that pick is lottery protected.

    Thank you, I’d forgotten about that.

    Drat that Lombardi. He thinks of everything!

  24. Dashingsilverfox says:

    RexLibris:
    Flames win in a SO and the Coyotes are up 1-0 with ten minutes remaining in the 2nd.

    Now that LA has traded their 1st rounder, I’m hoping they miss the playoffs. I could almost stomach the Canes winning the lottery if only for the egg on Lombardi’s face as much as I respect him as a GM.

    With Michael Futa in charge of their draft…they will likely walk away with 3 NHL players.

    His record is impeccable.

  25. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk:
    Woodguy,

    Just bugging you man.

    Marincin will be a great value contract player next year. Eventually MacT will see this.

    “Visually better” is a my version of a joke.

  26. RexLibris says:

    Dashingsilverfox: With Michael Futa in charge of their draft…they will likely walk away with 3 NHL players.

    His record is impeccable.

    They have seven picks (if you include the protected 1st) this year, one in each round save the 6th and two in the 7th, as per ESPN.

    Three out of seven would represent a 42% success rate which is extremely rare in the history of the Entry Draft.

    Not saying Futa isn’t a good scouting director.

    In fact, I could see them picking two players and trading picks for a third, accomplishing what you describe by very Lombardian means.

  27. RexLibris says:

    This can’t be right.

    Vancouver 0

    Arizona…2?

  28. wheatnoil says:

    RexLibris:
    This can’t be right.

    Vancouver 0

    Arizona…2?

    Despite his best attempts, Maloney is still an amateur at this whole tanking thing.

  29. wheatnoil says:

    wheatnoil,

    And with that… Vancouver closes the gap to 1.

  30. pocession charge says:

    I blame Rex and Wheat for Arizona blowing that lead.

  31. 8p0intgame says:

    Well I lost Draft Kings…

  32. pocession charge says:

    Yes! In your face space coyote!

  33. wheatnoil says:

    pocession charge:
    I blame Rex and Wheat for Arizona blowing that lead.

    Phew… I had underestimated Maloney there. Fortunately, the Canucks are terrible.

  34. Dark Asia says:

    Heck with the defense – we need a goalie. That guy MIN picked up for a song seems to be playing pretty well – top 3 SP in the league and #2 in GA. Why can’t we ever draft guys like that? Maybe we could just overpay him on a UFA deal? Nah he’d never want to play in EDM. Maybe MacT should just “challenge” Scrivins next season – that should do it.

  35. Hammers says:

    Just if not more important who are the 3 forwards getting the most time with Fayne & Marincin as you indicated top pairing gets the 1st line forwards . Still feel Marincin + pitt 1st OR our 2nd is McT’s trade bait for a “D” or maybe a “C” if he doesn’t sign Roy . So much will come down to the draft pick we get in the top 5 .

  36. Hammers says:

    LT must also agree on coach Nelson’s influence being staggering . Not just Marincin , but Yak & Roy, Schultz & Klef , leaving Pouliot with RNH & Ebs and Gordon’s line together . All we need now is Lander back with Hall & Pitlick leaving Purcell with Roy & Yak . That might actually give us 4 lines . Nah that’s wishful thinking .

  37. Snowman says:

    I’m watching game one of the 84 finals between the Isles and the Oil. Man that was some kind of hockey. Basically no defense, tonnes of chances, miraculous saves on both ends, some dirty dirty hockey.

    I can’t tell if its better or not but by gord its way more entertaining than the average game today.

  38. pocession charge says:

    Snowman:
    I’m watching game one of the 84 finals between the Isles and the Oil. Man that was some kind of hockey. Basically no defense, tonnes of chances, miraculous saves on both ends, some dirty dirty hockey.

    I can’t tell if its better or not but by gord its way more entertaining than the average game today.

    I’m watching that right now, too. Grant Fuhr has an unbelievable game. Wow. The Oilers 1PK pair is Gretzky and Messier. I agree that it is very dirty — so much stick work. It’s wide open and very entertaining.

  39. Snowman says:

    pocession charge,

    Some of the saves are truly highlight reel quality. The technique Fuhr used would make Hasek shake is head. He just battled.

    And agreed on the stick work, I cringe thinking that those sticks are heavy wooden clubs compared to the space age sticks now.

    Lordy what a game though.

  40. Snowman says:

    When Andersen ran their goalie… Can you imagine the riot that would happen if someone ran Carey Price or Quick like that? Man alive.

  41. pocession charge says:

    Snowman:
    pocession charge,

    Some of the saves are truly highlight reel quality. The technique Fuhr used would make Hasek shake is head. He just battled.

    And agreed on the stick work, I cringe thinking that those sticks are heavy wooden clubs compared to the space age sticks now.

    Lordy what a game though.

    The equipment was so small that the goalies were doing acrobatics to keep the puck out. That NYI goalie pull was kind of weird.

    I’m loving all the defensive tackling going on below the goal line.

    That was great.

  42. Snowman says:

    God Fuhr was aggressive. He floated out far to challenge shooters. That was a great game. I haven’t ever watched an 80s Oilers game before this.

  43. Snowman says:

    pocession charge,

    I love they got to take warmup shots on the goalie change. That was pretty funny. An honestly the pads were about half the size. Its amazing they made any saves.

  44. pocession charge says:

    Snowman:
    When Andersen ran their goalie… Can you imagine the riot that would happen if someone ran Carey Price or Quick like that? Man alive.

    That was nuts. So many cheap shots all over the ice. Good thing Semenko was out there to police everything….

    Man, Don Jackson would be killed by advanced stats metrics. Probably had a low EVGA/60, though.

  45. Snowman says:

    pocession charge,

    Yeah it’d be interesting to see the data on those teams. I wonder if anyone has ever done a big analysis of it. I bet someone has somewhere.

  46. Snowman says:

    Watched a bit of the Flames-Bruins game too. I think the Flames might make it. They play honest hockey and their powerplay looks deadly. They might just be able to squeak it out.

  47. pocession charge says:

    Snowman:
    God Fuhr was aggressive. He floated out far to challenge shooters. That was a great game. I haven’t ever watched an 80s Oilers game before this.

    That’s a good first 80’s Oilers game. The last game of that series in Edmonton is also very good (I don’t recall it being as dirty as game one).

  48. pocession charge says:

    Snowman:
    Watched a bit of the Flames-Bruins game too. I think the Flames might make it. They play honest hockey and their powerplay looks deadly.They might just be able to squeak it out.

    They have a chance, but I think the Gio injury costs them a playoff spot.

  49. wheatnoil says:

    Jeff Petry played 27+ minutes for the Canadiens tonight. He was second on the team in even-strength ice-time… behind Tom Gilbert.

  50. Clay says:

    wheatnoil:
    Jeff Petry played 27+ minutes for the Canadiens tonight. He was second on the team in even-strength ice-time… behind Tom Gilbert.

    Two very serviceable dmen who can play actual NHL hockey. You know, if MacT could find a couple just like them, it may save his GM career.

  51. jp says:

    wheatnoil:
    Jeff Petry played 27+ minutes for the Canadiens tonight. He was second on the team in even-strength ice-time… behind Tom Gilbert.

    Good for them. Petry must be ecstatic to be heading to the playoffs for the first time.

    But wow, that fcking hurts from an Oilers perspective. I wonder how long till Marty joins them there.

  52. Woodguy says:

    5v5 Corgi’s in the CAL game were BOS 67.5 to CAL 32.5 and CAL wins in a SO.

    Everyone is praising Hartley like they praised Roy last year.

    That will be one tasty under on point totals bet for next year.

    That’s where fancystats really shine, on the long bet.

    Going 3/3 on TOR under, COL under and NYI over this year.

    If I wasn’t such a homer I would have hit the EDM under too.

    Damn.

  53. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy:
    5v5 Corgi’s in the CAL game were BOS 67.5 to CAL 32.5 and CAL wins in a SO.

    Everyone is praising Hartley like they praised Roy last year.

    That will be one tasty under on point totals bet for next year.

    That’s where fancystats really shine, on the long bet.

    Going 3/3 on TOR under, COL under and NYI over this year.

    If I wasn’t such a homer I would have hit the EDM under too.

    Damn.

    Well, one of these years a person would expect to have EDM over.

    Maybe next year.

    Or maybe the year after.

    OK, definitely the year after that

  54. Unicorns says:

    Bohologo: To say nothing of Dubnyk’s season. He could be a Vezina finalist this year. Near league tops in GAA and S%, something like 17-3 with the Wild.

    What’s more damning for Oilers management: watching the players they have chosen to keep underperform, or watching the players they have chosen to send away overperform?

    This is so true. One thing we should remember is that part of the success of those gone is having been traded. Dubnyk wasn’t being cooperative with requests made of him in Edmonton I’ve read. In his recent travels he has tried new things and came across that new technique he mentioned in a recent interview which he thinks changed his game.

    He would have bounced back with the Oilers but maybe not as high. Just like young men used to be sent traveling to round them out, it would not be a mistake to not try to sign Dubnyk if he would come back, or Petry. I’d say they are likely better or more mature players for their experiences. All it would take is money. And an open mind or two.

  55. sesame_oil says:

    Pajamah,

    Love those comments. Could not have said it better myself.

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