SUN SHINES IN CHICAGOLAND

The Edmonton Oilers lost a terrific hockey game last night, with some encouraging visual and reasonably impressive numbers to back it up. The Oilers hung in there in the shots department (just under 50% Corsi for at 5×5) and some of the blue were impressive indeed.

PLAYER EV CORSI FOR/AGAINST EV CORSI FOR +/- CORSI FOR % EV OZ STARTS
OSCAR KLEFBOM 38-26 +12 59 81
JUSTIN SCHULTZ 30-25 +5 55 81
MARTIN MARINCN 27-28 -1 49 38
MARK FAYNE 25-29 -4 46 38
JORDAN OESTERLE 13-19 -6 41 78
ANDREW FERENCE 13-24 -11 35 60

Klefbom—Schultz got the zone-start push but delivered some nice results against a quality team. The Marincin—Fayne tandem also performed pretty well, save some wobbly moments from Marincin (that’s going to happen with young blue). The third pairing received good zone starts but couldn’t get anything to rhyme; it’s a very unusual pairing and I don’t think we should be surprised. I think Jordan Oesterle is an interesting prospect but the fact that he is on the NHL roster today reflects on the progress of men like Martin Gernat and David Musil.

Question for you: If the Oilers run Klefbom—Schultz and Ference—Nikitin next season as pairs (the most likely scenario), is Phaneuf—Fayne enough to make the starting six good hum? I don’t think it is. I suspect the combination of Ference and Nikitin inside the three pairings will crush the team’s defense. Oilers have to make a decision on their captain this summer. Will they? I’d like to feel good about this team’s defense for 2015-16 and watching Klefbom makes it oh so easy. Difficult decisions have to be made, tough buyout decisions and acknowledgement of bad bets made.

  TOP 30 PLAYERS IN THE 2015 DRAFT

  1. (1)C Connor McDavid, Erie Otters (OHL) 2GP, 2-5-7 this week
  2. (2)C Jack Eichel, Boston U (NCAA) 1GP, 2-1-3 this week
  3. (3)R Mitch Marner, London Knights (OHL) 4GP, 3-5-8 this week
  4. (4)C Dylan Strome, Erie Otters (OHL) 2GP, 2-4-6 this week
  5. (5)D Noah Hanifin, Boston College (NCAA) 1GP, 0-1-1 this week
  6. (6) D Ivan Provorov, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL) 3GP, 1-1-2 this week
  7. (7) D Zach Werenski, Michigan (NCAA) 2GP, 0-0-0 this week
  8. (9) C Mathew Barzal, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL) 4GP, 1-3-4 this week
  9. (8) D Oliver Kylington, Farjestad (SHL) Did not play in SHL this week
  10. (12) C Travis Konecny, Ottawa 67’s (OHL) 2GP, 2-1-3 this week
  11. (10) C Nick Merkley, Kelowna Rockets (WHL) 3GP, 0-1-1 this week
  12. (11) C Anthony Beauvillier, Shawinigan Cataractes (QMJHL) 3GP, 2-0-2 this week
  13. (13) L Evgeni Svechnikov, Cape Breton (QMJHL) 2GP, 0-4-4 this week
  14. (14) R Mikko Rantanen, TPS Turku (SML) 2GP, 1-0-1 this week
  15. (15) R Timo Meier, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL) 3GP, 3-4-7 this week
  16. (16) C Jansen Harkins, Prince George Cougars (WHL) 3GP, 1-3-4 this week
  17. (17) L Jake Debrusk, Swift Current (WHL) 4GP, 0-2-2 this week
  18. (20) C Pavel Zacha, Sarnia Sting (OHL) 2GP, 2-1-3 this week
  19. (21) R Daniel Sprong, Charlettown Islanders (QMJHL) 4GP, 4-4-8 this week
  20. (19) D Mitchell Vande Sompel, Oshawa (OHL) 2GP, 1-1-2 this week
  21. (23) C Filip Chlapik, Charlottetown Islanders (QMJHL) 4GP, 3-4-7 this week
  22. (24) C Kyle Connor, Youngstown (USHL) 2GP, 4-3-7 this week
  23. (18) L Lawson Crouse, Kingston Frontenacs (OHL) 3GP, 0-0-0 this week
  24. (22) D Jeremy Roy, Sherbrooke Phoenix (QMJHL) 1GP, 0-0-0 this week
  25. (30) D Travis Dermott, Erie Otters (OHL) 2GP, 0-4-4 this week
  26. (25) D Jakub Zboril, Saint John Seadogs (QMJHL) 2GP, 0-0-0 this week
  27. (27) R Nikita Korostelev, Sarnia Sting (OHL) 2GP, 0-0-0 this week
  28. (NR) D Noah Juulsen, Everett Silvertips (WHL) 3GP, 0-3-3 this week
  29. (26) L Paul Bittner, Portland Winterhawks (WHL) 2GP, 2-2-4 this week
  30. (28) D Thomas Chabot, Saint John (QMJHL) 2GP, 0-0-0 this week

I’m going to post a complete mock over at ON later today, including all Oilers picks in all rounds for 2015. At this point it’s reasonable to suggest the Top Six players in this draft have a chance to be impact players. Fascinating draft.

REACTION

I received plenty of reaction yesterday in regard to my comments on Craig MacTavish as GM. For the record, there are several moves that have worked out, several more that should have worked out but there’s also a galling tendency to march right up to the door without ever threatening to kick it in. His inability to add a center this summer, the now growing number of stories about getting ‘almost Coburn’ or ‘almost Anisimov’ and the inability to properly value men like Jeff Petry are very strong tells for fans.

I’m cheering like hell for him but it’s also true his track record has real and significant issues. His lack of experience is costing this organization useful talent like Petry and that’s not tolerable. A building team losing men in their 20’s, with 300 games experience? Who does that?

If we’re going to be fair on this blog and we try, then we have to look at the manager with a critical eye no matter how we feel about the individual. I enjoyed Craig MacTavish as a player and he taught me an enormous amount as a coach. As a manager? I have very little confidence he’ll make five moves this summer that tumble and click and rattle and hum.

We can cheer and we can hope but we cannot ignore the record of this manager.

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125 Responses to "SUN SHINES IN CHICAGOLAND"

  1. Woodguy says:

    If we’re going to be fair on this blog and we try, then we have to look at the manager with a critical eye no matter how we feel about the individual. I enjoyed Craig MacTavish as a player and he taught me an enormous amount as a coach. As a manager? I have very little confidence he’ll make five moves this summer that tumble and click and rattle and hum.

    We can cheer and we can hope but we cannot ignore the record of this manager.

    Truth.

  2. Klima's_Bucket says:

    ‘Almost Clarkson’ the most infamous almost of them all.

  3. frjohnk says:

    Question for you: If the Oilers run Klefbom—Schultz and Ference—Nikitin next season as pairs (the most likely scenario), is Phaneuf—Fayne enough to make the starting six good hum?

    It would not be as bad as some think.

    The good.

    – Klefbom will be better next year.
    -Schultz hopefully could make a jump defensively.
    – A healthy Nikitin would be a good arrow for next year.
    -Phanuef is a step up from Petry.

    The bad
    -Ference is one year older. He is a 6/7 D man.

    This years team defence is
    -21st in Shots Against per 60 minutes
    -24st in Scoring Chances Against per 60 minutes
    -25th in Home Plate ( this is the high to medium danger area )Shots Against per 60 minutes.

    I think we could improve on those numbers next year with that D core.

    But the biggest get to turn north for next year, is a number 1 goalie.

  4. Pouzar says:

    Ference is a black hole. There is no rookie alive and not enough soft Comp out there to carry that guy around. What a spot to put the kid in. I think Oesterle is a good prospect but he will get overlooked by this current regime because they can’t admit Ference sucks.

    Marincin is still trying to find his game and he is still our 2nd best d-man. I wonder if MacT is noticing.

  5. Pouzar says:

    frjohnk,

    No offense but if the Oil come back with that D corps I am done as Tier 3 Oiler Fan.
    That’s another season with a top 5 draft pick written all over it.

  6. Klima's_Bucket says:

    frjohnk: But the biggest get to turn north for next year, is a number 1 goalie.

    There are some goalies like Price, Rask, Schneider, and Lundqvist that consistently perform.
    For the most part goalies rely on the strength of the team in front of them.
    Unless the Oilers get a Price, Rask, Schneider or Lundqvist they will be doomed behind this defence.
    Every year goalies over perform but usually it is due to team systems or defensive schemes that help the improvement in their numbers.
    A Niemi, Raanta, or Jones has nowhere to hide behind Nikitin, Ference and Norris.
    I am all for getting a number one goalie. I just think paying to bring in a goalie is a bad idea if the plan is to ruin their abilities by throwing them behind a turnstile defence.
    See Dubnyk, Fasth, Scrivens, Khabibulin, Labarbera.

  7. Woodguy says:

    The other day everyone was kicking around goalie ideas.

    I’d like to belated chime in.

    There are 45 NHL goalies who have played at least 2000 minutes since the start of the 13/14 season.

    Waronice.com has a function called “adjusted save %” They adjust the raw SV% via the number of High, Medium and Low probability shots based on shot location.

    Its not perfect and not the burning bush, but I think it adds a dimension that raw SV% doesn’t.

    Here are the top 16 Goalies via Adjusted SV% from the last 2 years with minimum 2000 5v5 min played:

    Name AdSv%
    Carey.Price 94.1
    Tuukka.Rask 93.82
    Cory.Schneider 93.7
    Jonathan.Bernier 93.69
    Semyon.Varlamov 93.58
    Ben.Bishop 93.51
    Cam.Talbot 93.48
    Henrik.Lundqvist 93.43
    Anton.Khudobin 93.42
    Braden.Holtby 93.4
    Steve.Mason 93.29
    Jonathan.Quick 93.29
    Chad.Johnson 93.24
    Jonas.Hiller 93.15
    Craig.Anderson 93.13

    Bernier, Talbot and Anderson could all be available.

    I’d be fine with any of them.

    Also,

    If we did the same exercise last summer and look where Fasth and Scrivens ranks we see:

    Scrivens 20th
    Fasth 36th

    Total 54 goalies, min 1400 5v5 minutes (so Fasth would qualify) from beginning of 12/13 season to end of 13/14 season.

  8. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Almost Schneider. Almost Bernier. Almost Dubnyk.

  9. Ontario Oilers Fan says:

    To paraphrase MacT the brainiac, I found that team visually better last night even though I missed 1/2 the game as I was watching Sam bennett kick Peterborough’s ass in Kingston.

  10. Mr DeBakey says:

    frjohnk: -Phanuef is a step up from Petry.

    He is?
    Celine has never been a top-pairing D-man despite his Booming slapshots and Thunderous bodychecks.
    He & Petry would make a nice pairing

  11. Ca$h-Money! says:

    I think Bernier would be a wonderful pickup. He’s the right age, it would be crazy for Toronto to give up on him. That said, they might.

    My bet remains on Pavelec.

  12. Pouzar says:

    Ca$h-Money!:

    My bet remains on Pavelec.

    Surely you jest.

  13. frjohnk says:

    Talking about buyouts.
    If Nikitin and Purcell were bought out. It costs us 3M next year and 3M the year after. But it saves us 6M in cap space both years.

    Hall 6M Nuge 6M Eberle 6M
    Pouliot 4M xxxxx Yak 2.5M
    xxxxx Lander .9M Pakarinen .9M
    Hendricks 1.8M Gordon 3M KHammer .75M
    Gazdic .8M Pitlick .9M

    33.5M for the forwards

    xxxxx Fayne 3.75M
    Klefbom .9M Schultz 4M
    Marincin 1M xxxxxxx
    Ference 3.25M

    12.9M for the D men

    xxxxxx
    Scrivens 2.3M

    * I’m guessing the salaries for Shultz, Yak, Lander, Pitlick and the tall D man whose name escapes me

    That’s 48.7M for 18 players. Add 3M for the buyout of Purcell and Nikitin. Yes they are actual NHL players, but paid too much for their services.

    The issue of buying out Purcell is that is an actual NHL player with skill, we don’t have a boatload of those guys, but as a 3rd line winger at 4.5M he needs to be bought out.

    The issue of buying out Nikitin is that if they do not get two UFA D men, Nurse most likely starts with the big club.

    Depending on where the salary cap is, we would have anywhere from 19M ( if cap is at 71M) to 21M ( if cap is at 73M) Bettman says it wont be lower than 71 Million, but who knows http://nesn.com/2015/02/gary-bettman-salary-cap-wont-fall-off-a-cliff-because-of-canadian-dollar/

    19M to 21M to get

    1. Number 1 goalie
    2. Top pairing D man
    3. 2C
    4. Top 6 D man
    5. 3LW

    The 3LW and top 6 D man could be gotten for on the low side. Lets say 2.5M total.

    So that would leave 16.5M to 18.5M to get
    1. Number 1 goalie
    2. Top pairing D man
    3. 2C

    I don’t know, its tight, but doable.

  14. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Almost Schneider. Almost Bernier. Almost Dubnyk.

    Almost know a thing or two about winning, if there’s ever a concern.

  15. Bag of Pucks says:

    I too referred to MacT’s “stubbornness” the other day in regards to Nikitin, Ference, Schultz, etc.

    But this tendency may actually be more related to job security. Asking the rich owner for multi million $ buyouts of the signings formerly pitched as saviours likely does not go down well in the Bat Cave. Yet another decision made that doesn’t involve winning?

    If the Bruins miss the playoffs (seems likely without Krejci) and they do in fact turf Chiarelli, is he a clear upgrade over MacT? His critics point to Kessel > Louie Eriksen but he did bring them out of the desert to drink from the silver chalice.

  16. smellyglove says:

    You don’t have to apologize for raking MacT over the coals, LT. If anything, I think some of the reaction is a response to thread comments that went even further than you.

    While I recognize that, of course, MacT can’t be perfectly honest with the fanbase and the media, he is deserved of criticism and intense scrutiny at this juncture. He hasn’t failed the course yet, but he’s past midterms and needs an “A” during the stretch (going into next season) and during the final exams (a year from now) to pass (keep his job).

    I love MacT, we all do. But, he shouldn’t have been handed a GM job that he is clearly learning on a daily basis. In that respect, he’s continuing to bury this franchise after so many long, terrible years.

    *********************

    Analytics people: I seem to recall some math/theory that As and Ps from junior hockey are not as good a predictor as goals. In that way, I’ve always tended to take the better goal scorer over the better playmaker. Is this true?

  17. Raider Jesse says:

    I have no idea how MacT was able to recognize how to get the most of his players as a coach and yet be so damn blind to his players ability while sitting upstairs. It’s mind boggling how he doesn’t see that Marincin today, is one of his better defenders.

    How does he not realize that players like David Schlemko or Tim Erixon are a better long term bet in comparison to Jordan Oesterle.

    If he was even just smart enough to properly use the waiver wire he would have a much deeper team than the one we have now.

    Richard Panik should be on the 3rd line instead of Ryan Hamilton and Matt Fraser. Hell we could be trying out a line of Paajarvi – Lander – Panik instead of the Hamilton – Lander – Fraser we’ll see when Anton is back. AT least they can skate.

    If the rumors of people actually wanting Andrew Ferrence were true and he didn’t move him because he legitimately thinks they help his team we can forget about getting better for at least another 5 years.

    We’re getting to the point where we should do the old MacT vs a Potato blog post.

  18. frjohnk says:

    Mr DeBakey: He is?
    Celine has never been a top-pairing D-man despite his Booming slapshots and Thunderous bodychecks.
    He & Petry would make a nice pairing

    Didn’t say he was a top pairing D man. I think Phanuef is a great 2nd pairing D man who brings more offense than Petry. Are they comparable defensively? I’d say its close.

    I’m not crazy about Phanuef especially with that contract, but he is better than Petry.

  19. Ontario Oilers Fan says:

    I see that some of you are contemplating acquiring some possible UFA goalie & that is 100% indicative that MacT is a wanker. Dubnyk was a good goalie albeit the wanker never provided good D men in front.
    And that is the reason why MacT is a failure. He has 2 more opportunities to redeem himself: on draft day & on July 1st. If not he deserves to be fired.

  20. Woodguy says:

    Pouzar:
    Ference is a black hole. There is no rookie alive and not enough soft Comp out there to carry that guy around. What a spot to put the kid in. I think Oesterle is a good prospect but he will get overlooked by this current regime because they can’t admit Ference sucks.

    Marincin is still trying to find his game and he is still our 2nd best d-man. I wonder if MacT is noticing.

    I agree with this.

    We need to worry much, much more about Ference than Nikitin.

    Nikitin’s biggest sins are costing $4.5MM and not $2.0, and being out of shape.

    His fancy stats are much better than what he looks like by eye. (Slow feet + bad decisions = Secret Agent)

    Nikitin for the year: 48.5% CF

    With Fayne (271min) (2nd toughs, 2nd toughest ZS) : 50.4%CF, 48.6% OZS

    With Schultz (160min) (Easiest comp, easiest ZS) : 43.3%CF, 60.2% OZS

    With Petry (75min) (1st/2nd toughs, 2nd toughest ZS): 50.7%CF, 50%OZS

    I think he’d be ok, (not good, but ok) with NOTSCHULTZ in a 2nd or 3rd pairing role

    The problem lies in that there are no RHD currently to play with him in that role.

    Fayne is going to get the toughs and he needs to be the 2nd best Dman on that pairing (like Greene in NJD)

    He and Schultz were garbage together.

    That leaves…….Ference and on the 3rd pair?

    Bloody hell, that probably won’t work either.

    If you dump Ference and run:

    New Hire – Fayne
    Klef-Schultz
    Marincin-Nikitin

    That might work. (work= not in the bottom 7 teams in the NHL)

    New Hire needs to be good and you can’t give up Marincin to get him.

  21. slopitch says:

    Missed the opportunity to move Ferance at the deadline. I suspect teams wanted the oilers to keep salary. By game 40 next year, Nurse could really be knocking on the door. I don’t think Ferance would kill us with softer minutes though. I dont think its a huge error to keep him around. Although when you need 5 good moves, poor decisions make that task even more daunting.

    I’m not huge on the Phaneuf contract but it might be better then being the highest bidder on Boychuk. I’d like the oilers to avoid UFA shopping till July 10and focus on acquiring guys like bernier, Seabrook and Anisimov. 3 good moves combined with internal development will be enough to get some games that matter next March. Interested to see the Yak contract as well. At the right number, I’ll count that as 1 good move.

  22. Woodguy says:

    Mr DeBakey: He is?
    Celine has never been a top-pairing D-man despite his Booming slapshots and Thunderous bodychecks.
    He & Petry would make a nice pairing

    Petry had a much, much better track record than Phaneuf at playing the toughs.

    Phaneuf was an elite scoring 3/4 Dman until Carlyle decided he was their 1LD.

  23. slopitch says:

    Dreamy and Fayne might be top pairing next year. Might not even be that bad …

  24. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk,

    I’m not crazy about Phanuef especially with that contract, but he is better than Petry.

    When you say “better than Petry”, you need to spell out what exactly his is better at.

    There are many metrics where Phanuef can’t hold Petry’s jock and they’ve both played 1st pairing on horrible teams with meh partners.

  25. theres oil in virginia says:

    I’m cheering like hell for him but it’s also true his track record has real and significant issues. His lack of experience is costing this organization useful talent like Petry and that’s not tolerable. A building team losing men in their 20’s, with 300 games experience? Who does that?

    I agree that losing Petry is terrible asset management and that this sort of thing marks a losing organization. How much of that can really be laid at MacT’s feet? Certainly by the time MacT became GM and Petry was RFA (with 1 year left until UFA), it was pretty clear that he would go UFA unless a substantial deal was offered. At that time, MacT wan’t convinced that he should offer Petry a long-term deal, because he wasn’t sure that Petry would develop enough to merit it. So, he signed him to a “show me” deal. By the time he came around to the realization of what the player was, it was too late. The price tag went up, and again he wasn’t sure that the player would merit the (now elevated) money. So, he was a step behind. Exacerbating the issue, he signed Nikitin to a deal for about the same dollars that he probably could have signed Petry for. (I don’t think Nikitin is as bad as he’s shown so far, but sheesh. Also, the Nikitin deal is for two years, and that’s not the end of the world. In MacT’s defense, he was trying to sign veterans to provide cover for the young guys to develop.) So, my read is that MacT contributed to the situation, but he didn’t create it. Maybe he would have, if he were GM years ago, but he wasn’t and he didn’t.

    I’m also not convinced that Petry doesn’t sign in Edmonton in the summer. I don’t expect it, but won’t be shocked if it happens. A lot of cards to played before then.

    If we’re going to be fair on this blog and we try, then we have to look at the manager with a critical eye no matter how we feel about the individual.

    Yes, but critical isn’t positive or negative, it’s unbiased. You have to maintain neutrality of emotion when being critical. Our tendency as hoomans is to swing one way or the other, and it usually builds momentum. Polarization ensues. MacT has made plenty of mistakes, but so has every GM in the league. He’s done some nice things too.

    When things look like they do now, it’s easy to just fall into the mode of “everything is bad”. In fairness to you, I think you do a good job of staying neutral. Usually people accuse you of being an optimist when you do, which I think is silly and condescending. I just think you’ve slipped a little due to the disappointment and frustration (all justified) of seeing Petry walk. It leaves a sour taste in my mouth too.

    I have very little confidence he’ll make five moves this summer that tumble and click and rattle and hum.

    I’m not sure there’s a GM in the league that could accomplish that, at least in Edmonton given the current situation.

    Yours, respectfully. TOIV.

    PS – Another topic that gets you fired up is the lack of verbal from MacT on Marincin. Have you considered a post analyzing the history of this? I’m not sure Marincin’s treatment is due to attitude or some training issue. I keep thinking that they are trying to push the player to be more physical. It *is* lacking in his game, but I think some of this is just youth. Petry being a really good example of this. Nuge and Eberle too. Nuge in particular is developing some physicality. Eberle less so, but it’s there.

  26. theres oil in virginia says:

    frjohnk,

    I have a question for you, FRJOHNK. You showed us the cap situation coming for LA the other day. I’m thinking that BOS is in similar shape. I think both of those teams are coming to an end soon. It’s been my impression that the Oilers management team is trying to build a franchise that doesn’t just win a cup, but is stable and competitive for many, many years. (Leave aside whether they are succeeding, just that they are trying.)

    Based on what we’re seeing from LA and BOS, is this possible? Do you think that in order to win a cup, at some point along the line you have to mortgage the future by trading too many draft picks for rentals and by overpaying too many vets to prevent roster attrition?

  27. doritogrande says:

    How many Gare Joyce “Top-10s” in this draft LT? Too early to tell?

  28. Bag of Pucks says:

    A couple weeks back, some free Oiler tix came available and made the rounds in the office. No one wanted them. I couldn’t go cos I had already committed to my niece’s birthday party and it didn’t bother me in the least.

    What was interesting watching them makes the rounds is the reaction of the twenty something’s in the office who viewed going to an Oiler’s game as the equivalent of going to a bad movie that never ends. It was clearly the last thing they would consider doing with their Friday night. And quite a few of these folks Do like hockey.

    Gate receipts aside, there are longterm ramifications for nearly two decades of constant suck. This team has killed brand loyalty with the entire next generation of hockey fans. My own sons care more about NLL and extreme sports than they do the Oilers which they view as Dad’s nostalgic and somewhat sad diversion.

    They need to get better fast and they need to hope like hell their shiny new building can revitalize interest in younger demos. We’re too small a city to support constant ineptitude like the Cubs ad infinitum.

  29. Bruce McCurdy says:

    frjohnk: Talking about buyouts.
    If Nikitin and Purcell were bought out. It costs us 3M next year and 3M the year after. But it saves us 6M in cap space both years.

    This is mistaken. It would save Oilers $6 MM in cap space next year, but COST them $3 MM the following year, when both of those pacts would have already expired if left to run their course.

    I’m inclined to bite the bullet on both, with the certain knowledge that there will be a very nice bubble in available cap space in the summer of 2016.

  30. Lowetide says:

    doritogrande:
    How many Gare Joyce “Top-10s” in this draft LT? Too early to tell?

    Great question. I’ll say NHL GM’s see 18, I see 16 (Crouse, Zacha). It’s very deep.

  31. Woodguy says:

    Bruce McCurdy: This is mistaken. It would save Oilers $6 MM in cap space next year, but COST them $3 MM the following year, when both of those pacts would have already expired if left to run their course.

    I’m inclined to bite the bullet on both, with the certain knowledge that there will be a very nice bubble in available cap space in the summer of 2016.

    Agree that you bite the bullet on both next year.

    Buying out Ference for $0.667MM in cap the first year then $1.167MM cap the next 3 years is very doable and very needed.

  32. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy:
    frjohnk,

    I’m not crazy about Phanuef especially with that contract, but he is better than Petry.

    When you say “better than Petry”, you need to spell out what exactly his is better at.

    There are many metrics where Phanuef can’t hold Petry’s jock and they’ve both played 1st pairing on horrible teams with meh partners.

    Offensively Phanuef is better.
    He also faces tougher competition. Fayne faced the same competition that Phaneuf did. Petry’s competition was not as tough. http://www.hockeyabstract.com/playerusagecharts

    But I compared them through a whole slack of metrics. Take away offense, Petry is better in most metrics.

    So I would reverse my decision.

  33. Pouzar says:

    So Slepy’s Salavat Yulaev team have been eliminated from KHL playoffs.

    Any chance he comes over?

  34. frjohnk says:

    Bruce McCurdy: This is mistaken. It would save Oilers $6 MM in cap space next year, but COST them $3 MM the following year, when both of those pacts would have already expired if left to run their course.

    I’m inclined to bite the bullet on both, with the certain knowledge that there will be a very nice bubble in available cap space in the summer of 2016.

    Yes, you are right, after next year, their contracts are done.

    Geez, I’m making mistakes left and right today.

    At least the Oilers won last night.

  35. GCW_69 says:

    frjohnk: – Klefbom will be better next year.

    We don’t know that. Young players don’t develop in straight lines.

    Hope for the best, but plan for the worst.

    The plan should assume Klefbom regresses and Schultz doesn’t magically improve, and therefore need to be a heavily sheltered pair.

    That means you cannot have the suck that is Nikitin and Ference on the roster who also need to be sheltered.

  36. speeds says:

    Bruce McCurdy: This is mistaken. It would save Oilers $6 MM in cap space next year, but COST them $3 MM the following year, when both of those pacts would have already expired if left to run their course.

    I’m inclined to bite the bullet on both, with the certain knowledge that there will be a very nice bubble in available cap space in the summer of 2016.

    If they want to move both of them, they might/might not be movable if EDM retains half the money, which would be cheaper financially than a buyout, not cost a lot more in yr1 capspace, and have no cap hit in yr 2.

    Woodguy: Agree that you bite the bullet on both next year.

    Buying out Ference for $0.667MM in cap the first year then $1.167MM cap the next 3 years is very doable and very needed.

    couple related questions:

    Based on the reports that a team(s?) was interested in him at the deadline, would you prefer to retain a bunch of his salary and trade him? And what do you make of the argument that keeping Ference, as long as you have him as a 7/8D to start next year, makes more sense than a buyout this summer? Gives you one more chance to move him at the deadline prior to a buyout, doesn’t cost insanely more for 1 more year, etc.

  37. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Pouzar:
    So Slepy’s Salavat Yulaevteam have been eliminated from KHL playoffs.

    Any chance he comes over?

    Good question. I have a couple of my own. Would he need to clear waivers before he could be assigned to the AHL? If so, then no. Also is his contract expired upon completion of the season or does it run to June 30 (or equivalent) like NHL pacts do, in which case can an accommodation be made?

    No doubt there is precedent for these queries but i have a hard time remembering fine details of the CBA type.

  38. GCW_69 says:

    theres oil in virginia: How much of that can really be laid at MacT’s feet? Certainly by the time MacT became GM and Petry was RFA (with 1 year left until UFA), it was pretty clear that he would go UFA unless a substantial deal was offered.

    This is wrong. MacT had the option to negotiate with Petry in the summer of 2013 when Petry was two years away from free agency. He chose not to do so.

  39. GCW_69 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Good question. I have a couple of my own. Would he need to clear waivers before he could be assigned to the AHL? If so, then no. Also is his contract expired upon completion of the season or does it run to June 30 (or equivalent) like NHL pacts do, in which case can an accommodation be made?

    No doubt there is precedent for these queries but i have a hard time remembering fine details of the CBA type.

    Didn’t the Oilers successfully navigate those waters with Tuuhoma?

    If there is something different about the KHL vs the Finish league, you would think he could be signed to a PTO contract of some sort and play with the Baron’s.

  40. theres oil in virginia says:

    GCW_69: This is wrong.MacT had the option to negotiate with Petry in the summer of 2013 when Petry was two years away from free agency.He chose not to do so.

    Can you remind me of the history of this? The memory, it fails. What was Petry’s status in Summer 2013?

  41. oliveoilers says:

    Woodguy: Agree that you bite the bullet on both next year.

    Buying out Ference for $0.667MM in cap the first year then $1.167MM cap the next 3 years is very doable and very needed.

    Stauffer alluded to MacT not even entertaining a couple of calls on TCAF on Monday. MacT is standing by him. TCAF will retire as a roster player and captain of the Oilers.

  42. Bruce McCurdy says:

    speeds,

    I prefer the “trade with retained salary” option to a buyout, ideally retaining a third or less. Inhate the thought of paying the buyout years beyond the natural expiry of a pact, that is paying a continuing price that extends beyond the initial mistake I know them’s the rules, but better avoided if at all possible.

    I view $1.6 MM of Purcell’s cap hit as effectively “retained salary” on Gagner, which i think is a defensible viewpoint given what Tampa did in flipping Sam to Arizona.

  43. frjohnk says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Good question. I have a couple of my own. Would he need to clear waivers before he could be assigned to the AHL? If so, then no. Also is his contract expired upon completion of the season or does it run to June 30 (or equivalent) like NHL pacts do, in which case can an accommodation be made?

    No doubt there is precedent for these queries but i have a hard time remembering fine details of the CBA type.

    Did not Kuznetsov sign with the capitals last year after his KHL team was done?
    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=123909

    I think Sleppy could do the same.

  44. rickithebear says:

    Jeff Petry is the best Career -17 per season player ever!

  45. rickithebear says:

    frjohnk: Did not Kuznetsov sign with the capitals last year after his KHL team was done?
    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=123909

    I think Sleppy could do the same.

    Contract was terminiated!

    http://www.hockeyfights.com/news/196012

  46. Pouzar says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Good question. I have a couple of my own. Would he need to clear waivers before he could be assigned to the AHL? If so, then no. Also is his contract expired upon completion of the season or does it run to June 30 (or equivalent) like NHL pacts do, in which case can an accommodation be made?

    No doubt there is precedent for these queries but i have a hard time remembering fine details of the CBA type.

    Gord knows the Barons could use a forward or 3.

  47. Pouzar says:

    frjohnk: Did not Kuznetsov sign with the capitals last year after his KHL team was done?
    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=123909

    I think Sleppy could do the same.

    Good call….here are the details.

    http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com/2014/03/08/evgeny-kuznetsov-signs-entry-level-contract-with-the-washington-capitals-will-wear-92/

  48. John Chambers says:

    Bruce McCurdy: This is mistaken. It would save Oilers $6 MM in cap space next year, but COST them $3 MM the following year, when both of those pacts would have already expired if left to run their course.

    I’m inclined to bite the bullet on both, with the certain knowledge that there will be a very nice bubble in available cap space in the summer of 2016.

    To add to this, buyouts for Purcell and Nikitin are a poor idea because:
    1) you also have to factor in their replacement cost, and as crappy as Nikitin is his equivalent runs at least $2.5M, ditto Edward
    2) they’re both in the final years of their contracts, suggesting you’ll see a possible bump in performance.

    Summer 2016 could be really interesting given all the young talent under contract as well as the available cap room.

  49. theres oil in virginia says:

    Woodguy: Agree that you bite the bullet on both next year.

    Buying out Ference for $0.667MM in cap the first year then $1.167MM cap the next 3 years is very doable and very needed.

    I liked the Ference signing. I didn’t like the final year (or maybe two) of it. I haven’t liked any of it since. I don’t think they buy him out, but I would.

  50. theres oil in virginia says:

    GCW_69: This is wrong.MacT had the option to negotiate with Petry in the summer of 2013 when Petry was two years away from free agency.He chose not to do so.

    Okay, I see what you’re saying now. When MacT became GM, Petry was coming into the last year of his deal, which would leave him with 1 year left of RFA status. I don’t see how this substantially changes what I said regarding MacT’s position on Petry.

  51. oliveoilers says:

    rickithebear:
    Jeff Petry is the best Career -17 per season player ever!

    Chara was +1, -8, -27, -27 in his 4 seasons with the islanders.

    Traded to the Sens, where he was exceptional, then traded to the Bruins.

    In his first season with the Bruins, he was -21.

    Just one example of +/- context. I can find more. Keep using it to prove Petry is bad and we’re better off without him.

  52. rickithebear says:

    Mr DeBakey:

    He & Petry would make a nice pairing

    2nd? or 3rd? comp
    12.5M

  53. frjohnk says:

    theres oil in virginia: I have a question for you, FRJOHNK. You showed us the cap situation coming for LA the other day. I’m thinking that BOS is in similar shape. I think both of those teams are coming to an end soon

    There is a real possibility that both these teams don’t make the playoffs this year. Though I would not bet against them. But there are definitely some monster contracts that are BAD on LA.

    theres oil in virginia: It’s been my impression that the Oilers management team is trying to build a franchise that doesn’t just win a cup, but is stable and competitive for many, many years. (Leave aside whether they are succeeding, just that they are trying.)
    Based on what we’re seeing from LA and BOS, is this possible? Do you think that in order to win a cup, at some point along the line you have to mortgage the future by trading too many draft picks for rentals and by overpaying too many vets to prevent roster attrition?

    I do believe the Oilers are trying to be competitive, but trying and being successful are two different things. ( Sometimes I try to win an argument with the wife)
    Eventually the oilers will be competitive, but will they stay that way for many years? I don’t know, but I do like the contracts of Hall, Eberle and RNH at 6M each because over the long term that will be great value. Some would say that RNH and Ebs are overpaid but if so, it is not by much and when their contracts are done, they are still in their prime.

    If we look at the last 3 cup winners, LA 2x, Chicago 2x, and Boston, they are all going to be in cap hell next year. In 4 years, LA will have 5 bad contracts near 5M each and this will derail any possibility of them staying competitive unless Lombardi can stick handle his way through it.

    I think big contracts given to UFA’s going into their mid 30’s should not be taken lightly.
    I like Boychuk, but his age ( not now, but in 4 years or so) is something that I view as a negative if the oilers were to overpay in term.

    LA could be the poster boys of giving out bad contracts in 4 years. This is something that the Oilers need to be aware of if they want to be stay competitive for along time.

  54. Lowetide says:

    theres oil in virginia: I agree that losing Petry is terrible asset management and that this sort of thing marks a losing organization.How much of that can really be laid at MacT’s feet?Certainly by the time MacT became GM and Petry was RFA (with 1 year left until UFA), it was pretty clear that he would go UFA unless a substantial deal was offered.At that time, MacT wan’t convinced that he should offer Petry a long-term deal, because he wasn’t sure that Petry would develop enough to merit it.So, he signed him to a “show me” deal.By the time he came around to the realization of what the player was, it was too late.

    There’s simply no way to make that statement and then say “how much blame can we lay at MacT’s feet. It happened on his watch. It’s on him. We can talk about the sins of Tambellini but Craig MacTavish had an opportunity to sign Petry long term, they were talking an extended deal last summer.

    It’s very important to remember things as they happened because our mind plays tricks on us.

  55. Woodguy says:

    speeds: If they want to move both of them, they might/might not be movable if EDM retains half the money, which would be cheaper financially than a buyout, not cost a lot more in yr1 capspace, and have no cap hit in yr 2.

    couple related questions:

    Based on the reports that a team(s?) was interested in him at the deadline, would you prefer to retain a bunch of his salary and trade him?And what do you make of the argument that keeping Ference, as long as you have him as a 7/8D to start next year, makes more sense than a buyout this summer?Gives you one more chance to move him at the deadline prior to a buyout, doesn’t cost insanely more for 1 more year, etc.

    7th/8th Dmen end up with more total TOI than most of your forwards at the end of the year.

    Retain and trade is good.

    Buyout is good.

    Ference an Oiler for the next two years is not good.

  56. Unicorns says:

    frjohnk,

    This is the most frustrating thing for me. The gross part of this can be over. The high end talent is on or nearly on the team. They are stumbling over the easier part. They can work with the cap room they have.

    This summer lacks a deep UFA pool but there are players that can improve the team. There is a cap crunch. Filling the holes with capable players is absolutely possible without selling the farm, in one summer.

    They have an extra first in a deep draft. It is possible to improve the current roster and use assets to get more at the draft. Changing the roster and trying to get more quality out of the draft aren’t mutually exclusive.

    It just takes flexibility, creativity and a specific plan ahead of time. So basically it’s not going to happen.

  57. rickithebear says:

    oliveoilers: Chara was +1, -8, -27, -27 in his 4 seasons with the ISLANDERS.
    TRADED to the Sens, where he was exceptional, then traded to the Bruins.
    In his first season with the Bruins, he was -21.
    Just one example of +/- context. I can find more. Keep using it to prove Petry is bad and we’re better off without him.

    Performance Variance is PDO!
    LOL!

    Go to WOWY:
    Break it down year to year with
    d partner:
    -types
    -Comp
    -shot patterns
    the answer is
    1.Driver of pair
    or
    2. Restricted to a specific D type with a level of comp!
    or
    3. Boat anchor

    Oilers D this year.
    type 1 players.
    Fayne
    Marincin
    Klefbom

    Type 2 players
    Nikitin
    Hunt
    Petry

    Type 3
    Schultz
    Ference

  58. thejonrmcleod says:

    I think MacT goes to bed dreaming of adding Boychuk and Seabrook this summer.

    I think I’d be content with a tandem of J. Bernier and Scrivens.

  59. rickithebear says:

    Unicorns: It just takes flexibility, creativity and a specific plan ahead of time. So basically it’s not going to happen.

    Hall-Roy-Yak
    Pouliot-RNH-Ebs
    3rd line test run
    Klink-Gordon-Hendricks

    Slepy-Yakimov-Lander-Pakirinen-Hamilton-Fraser
    should all be up here for a end of season test run.
    with lander; roy; Yakimov alternating 1C

  60. Woodguy says:

    Let’s assume you can get Phaneuf with no retained salary for Ference + Oiler’s 2nd.

    15/16
    Klef-Fayne
    Frankenuef-Jultz
    Marincin-Niktin

    Assume Jultz is $4M x 2 years and Marincin is $1MM x 2 years

    That Dcorps is $21MM

    16/17
    Klef-Fayne
    FNF-Jultz
    Nurse-Marincin

    Assume Klef $2.5MM x 2 (very common bridge for good young D)

    That Dcorps is $19MM

    I didn’t include any RFA bonuses as the new CBA doesn’t require it (although if they cause you to go over you lose the cap the next year)

    (i.e. Nurse’s salary is .925 and has bonuses of .850 available. Old CBA he was a $1.77 Cap, new CBA he’s a .925)

  61. theres oil in virginia says:

    Lowetide: There’s simply no way to make that statement and then say “how much blame can we lay at MacT’s feet. It happened on his watch. It’s on him. We can talk about the sins of Tambellini but Craig MacTavish had an opportunity to sign Petry long term, they were talking an extended deal last summer.

    It’s very important to remember things as they happened because our mind plays tricks on us.

    Well, yes it is important to try to get the facts right. That’s what I’m attempting to do, and I’m not trying to rewrite history in a way that absolves MacT of any responsibility. I haven’t tried to absolve him of his responsibility in this fiasco either. What I’m driving at is that he didn’t create the situation where a developing player would come up to 1 year left with RFA status, at a practically unprecedented young age, without being locked up long term. My view is that MacT was slow in recognizing what Petry was/is (ie – unwilling to project him as a productive player worth ~$4M/yr until he obviously was one) and that is the extent of his error. Is that “fireable”? I don’t think it’s good, but I don’t think he should be fired for it. I think what is happening is that MacT’s getting the blame for the entire situation, and I don’t think that’s a correct assessment. It didn’t all “happen on his watch”.

  62. fifthcartel says:

    I thought MacT could be a good GM but his track record isn’t proving that to be the case. I don’t think he’s going to make the moves to put them past the basement. I’m betting they’ll move assets for a goaltender, sign/trade for a middle-six centre, and neglect the defense.

    I’m very doubtful a group of Nikitin, Ference, and Schultz playing significant minutes can succeed. That’s on MacT, and I don’t think he has a Garth Snow-ian off-season in him. Even getting 1 of Leddy/Boychuk would have been huge.

  63. oliveoilers says:

    rickithebear: Performance Variance is PDO!
    LOL!

    Go to WOWY:
    Break it down year to year with
    d partner:
    -types
    -Comp
    -shot patterns
    the answer is
    1.Driver of pair
    or
    2. Restricted to a specific D type with a level of comp!
    or
    3. Boat anchor

    Oilers D this year.
    type 1 players.
    Fayne
    Marincin
    Klefbom

    Type 2 players
    Nikitin
    Hunt
    Petry

    Type 3
    Schultz
    Ference

    You know all this and yet use +/-?

    I suspect you to be trolling, Mr. Thebear.

  64. theres oil in virginia says:

    thejonrmcleod: I think MacT goes to bed dreaming of adding Boychuk and Seabrook this summer.

    I do too. Especially Boychuck. I think he’ll be disappointed.

  65. Bruce McCurdy says:

    frjohnk: Yes, you are right, after next year, their contracts are done.

    Geez, I’m making mistakes left and right today.

    At least the Oilers won last night.

    Haha, good one. We all have days like that.

    I trust you will have noted the non-confrontational tone of “This is mistaken” as opposed to “YOUR WRONG, ASSHAT111” 🙂 I always appreciate your posts, good sir.

  66. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Woodguy:
    Let’s assume you can get Phaneuf with no retained salary for Ference + Oiler’s 2nd.

    15/16
    Klef-Fayne
    Frankenuef-Jultz
    Marincin-Niktin

    Assume Jultz is $4M x 2 years and Marincin is $1MM x 2 years

    That Dcorps is $21MM

    16/17
    Klef-Fayne
    FNF-Jultz
    Nurse-Marincin

    Assume Klef $2.5MM x 2 (very common bridge for good young D)

    That Dcorps is $19MM

    I didn’t include any RFA bonuses as the new CBA doesn’t require it (although if they cause you to go over you lose the cap the next year)

    (i.e. Nurse’s salary is .925 and has bonuses of .850 available.Old CBA he was a $1.77 Cap, new CBA he’s a .925)

    “Toronto considers Phaneuf a better player than Coburn, so it would look at that return and say, “We’ve got to have at least that.” Coburn’s contract is nowhere near as onerous as Phaneuf’s, though.” -Friedman, 30 thoughts

    If they’re looking for a Coburn return, he’s retiring in TO methinks

  67. Bruce McCurdy says:

    LadiesloveSmid: “Toronto considers Phaneuf a better player than Coburn, so it would look at that return and say, “We’ve got to have at least that.” Coburn’s contract is nowhere near as onerous as Phaneuf’s, though.” -Friedman, 30 thoughts

    If they’re looking for a Coburn return, he’s retiring in TO methinks

    Just takes one. Sather got McDonagh plus for Gomez’s awful contract. If Oilers make a move like that then I may have to reconsider my “never march on Kingsway” policy.

  68. GXL says:

    We need to find a goalie that can get this kind of endorsement by his team mates: “When [Dubnyk] came and played well those first couple games, it was almost as if we were all able to take a deep breath and slowly remember how we have to play to win. He really let us settle back down and play the game that we know how to play and play it successfully.”

    Oh wait we did have it but traded it away. Thanks smartest biggest @sshole in the room.

    GXL

  69. wheatnoil says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Good question. I have a couple of my own. Would he need to clear waivers before he could be assigned to the AHL? If so, then no. Also is his contract expired upon completion of the season or does it run to June 30 (or equivalent) like NHL pacts do, in which case can an accommodation be made?

    No doubt there is precedent for these queries but i have a hard time remembering fine details of the CBA type.

    I ‘m on my phone so have a hard time linking the details, but I looked this up the other day. There is precedent for him signing and he shouldn’t have to pass through waivers. If he signs an NHL deal, it would burn a year on his ELC (which would be a 3 year ELC due to his age). Perhaps more concerning would be that he actually loses a year of waiver exempt status if he plays in either the NHL or AHL for this season, even for one game. It’s possible this could be avoided if he signed an AHL contract instead of an NHL one.

    I can post the relevant sections in the CBA where I found the info later if you’d think it to be helpful.

  70. PerryK says:

    Here is score adjusted corsi graph by Micah Blake McCurdy (@ineffectivemath) from last night’s terrific game. Oilers slightly out played Chicago (by 1.5%)! No really bad games for anyone except Ference and Fraser. Klefbom was absolutely great!

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_f6T6HUYAATuCP.png:large

  71. Heinz 57 says:

    I think sometimes we over-do shining the North Korean Klieg lights on every management decision, but there seems to be not much in the way of alternative entertainment in this grim desolation, so what can you do?

    ———

    I got Boyd: The Fighter Pilot Who Changed the Art of War yesterday (Robert Coram, 2002) and read it straight through (not counting the eight hours it spent on my bedside table).

    The “air-to-rug maneuver” (p. 262) and the “white-wagon kill” (p. 357) were worth the price of admission all by themselves for anyone who had ever wished to down a stuffed suit with two stripes, four stripes, or six rings.

    ———

    Boyd’s biggest accomplishment (after the A-10 and F-16) was his cognitive theory of warfare.

    Boyd wrote draft after draft of his learning theory on yellow legal pads. He called the Acolytes to discuss the meaning of a word for hours. “What do you see when you hear that word?” It was an exasperating business. Boyd liked ambiguity, believing it opened new vistas and led in unexpected directions. Burton was uncomfortable with Boyd’s lack of fix. “You are taking advantage of the fact words can have more than one meaning,” Burton said. “You are using words and ideas and concepts in ways that people don’t use those words and ideas and concepts.

    It all became even more exasperating when Boyd told the Acolytes that he did not know where he was going with his research and that he deliberately refused to set a goal. He was simply letting it carry him along. The Acolytes reeled when Boyd said his work would link Gödel’s Proof, Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle, and the second law of thermodynamics. [p. 321]

    These turned out to be metaphorical links, but that was half the point.

    There’s too much to quote, but it certainly bears on the moving target of the managerial evaluation loop, if anyone wants to do some “heavy sledding” through this short document with a “specific gravity approaching uranium”.

    From Destruction and Creation:

    Against such a background, actions and decisions become critically important. Actions must be taken over and over again and in many different ways. Decisions must be rendered to monitor and determine the precise nature of the actions needed that will be compatible with the goal. To make these timely decisions implies that we must be able to form mental concepts of observed reality, as we perceive it, and be able to change these concepts as reality itself appears to change. The concepts can then be used as decision-models for improving our capacity for independent action. Such a demand for decisions that literally impact our survival causes one to wonder: How do we gene rate or create the mental concepts to support this decision-making activity?

    Our present roster of generative mental concepts consists of “because Oilers”, “six rings”, the galloping rebuild-window inchworm, someone must answer, and the seven primary flavours of prudent asset management.

    After many chapters covering the F-111 fighter, the impotent AIM Sparrow, the B1 bomber, the M1 tank, and the Bradley armoured vehicle I’ve concluded that prudence is more honoured in the breach.

    If he said, as the E-M charts showed, that the only place for an F-4 to successfully fight the MiG-21 was at low altitude and high speed, he had better be right. And the F-111 chart was one that would cause serious heartburn to any general who saw it—the chart was solid red: Soviet aircraft could defeat the F-111 at any altitude, at any airspeed, in any part of the flight envelope. [p.165]

    This kind of epic badness leads to severe doubts.

    Boyd and Christie went over the calculations again and again and the numbers came out the same. Perhaps the data from Foreign Tech was wrong. U.S. aircraft could not be inferior to Soviet aircraft in so many areas. …

    To make a long story short, the formulas held up, the data held up (both for ours and theirs), and the programming held up.

    Boyd clicked the slide projector. His final slide was an E-M diagram of the F-111. Boyd did not speak. The general and his staff had seen enough Vollman charts in the past two days to grasp the implications of the F-111 display. Even so, they studied the solid-red slide and then looked at Boyd in disbelief.

    Boyd gave them the numbers that showed how at any altitude, any speed, any G-load, any part of the flight-performance envelope, the F-111 was inferior to the Soviet threat. Period. End of story. The F-111 was, in the traditional phrase of the fighter pilots, a dog.

    The general thought for a moment. Maybe there was something the charts did not reveal, something he could salvage. “Major, based on your extensive research, do you have any recommendations regarding this aircraft?”

    Boyd did not miss a beat. “General, I’d pull the wings off, install benches in the bomb bay, paint the goddamn thing yellow, and turn it into a high-speed line taxi.” [p. 176]

    ———

    The first half of the book is giggles and guts and glory, then the last half slowly becomes increasingly burdened with Pentagon bureaucracy and the author loses control of the narrative pulse to some degree (it’s hard to fault him, as the entire Pentagon was in a plot-stomping full court press) but even with that, I was personally mesmerized to the last word.

    ———

    P.S. I didn’t get around to saying this, but I quoted that passage about ambiguity because it reminded me of my own avoidance of too-crystalline clarity when I was contributing here regularly.

  72. rickithebear says:

    oliveoilers: You know all this and yet use +/-?

    I suspect you to be trolling, Mr.Thebear.

    Damn it!

    I get paid to trend equipment in
    specific (wowy)
    industrial settings. (relative)

    +/- Relative is a good tool.
    to do an initial purge of league players.

    I have believed in corsi as a procession measure.
    though thru general trending.
    That takes you from turnover DZ to Entry DZ
    Nothing else.
    not the other magic:
    corsi = blocks + misses + hit goalie + Saves + goals

    Takeaway/give away Ratios are just as reflective.
    For
    High risk PPG players
    offensive 2 way players
    defensive players.
    Ratio range for types of players will be different.

    If you have not tried to argue for each sides position
    your are not looking at the full picture
    and
    you cannot get the real answer.

    I have a position re:
    forwards RE : OZDZ Corsi
    Shooting/pocession
    Shots/pocession
    Turnover/Pocession
    Takeaway/giveaway

    L/RD-Goal Re: DZ corsi -> goals
    Shot Location D
    Shots/corsi D
    saves/shot G

    I still wait for e real function position re corsi

  73. frjohnk says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Haha, good one. We all have days like that.
    I trust you will have noted the non-confrontational tone of “This is mistaken” as opposed to “YOUR WRONG, ASSHAT111″

    I rarely, if ever, have problems with comments directed to me on here, never with you. And I knew there was no ASSHAT tone from you. Ha Ha.

    Bruce McCurdy: I always appreciate your posts, good sir.

    Thank you very much.

  74. oliveoilers says:

    rickithebear: Damn it!

    I get paid to trend equipment in
    specific (wowy)
    industrial settings. (relative)

    +/- Relative is a good tool.
    to do an initial purge of league players.

    I have believed in corsi as a procession measure.
    though thru general trending.
    That takes you from turnover DZ to Entry DZ
    Nothing else.
    not the other magic:
    corsi = blocks + misses + hit goalie + Saves + goals

    Takeaway/give away Ratios are just as reflective.
    For
    High risk PPG players
    offensive 2 way players
    defensive players.
    Ratio range for types of players will be different.

    If you have not tried to argue for each sides position
    your are not looking at the full picture
    and
    you cannot get the real answer.

    I have a position re:
    forwards RE : OZDZ Corsi
    Shooting/pocession
    Shots/pocession
    Turnover/Pocession
    Takeaway/giveaway

    L/RD-Goal Re: DZcorsi -> goals
    Shot Location D
    Shots/corsi D
    saves/shot G

    I still wait for e real function position re corsi

    OK, I’m out.

    Maybe it’s just me, but I simply cannot understand 85% of your posts. I don’t speak for anyone else, I just genuinely have a problem following your syntax.

    Chances are you are correct, but the way you lay things out and your grammar make it difficult for me to follow.

    Why don’t you have one of those people you pay for clarity put your posts up?

  75. Dominoiler says:

    I am convinced that MacT is going to bring in Boychuk and that is why he has been so coy about the situation on defense post-petry.. And I think he’ll be brought in on a similar pretense as Ference was, come back home and help the oilers win again.. which is why I dont think MacT can or will move Ference, because he wants to keep the ‘Back to Edmonton’ pipeline open for UFAs..

    If it doesnt happen, but ‘almost boychuk’ instead, then I bet it’s MacT’s job.. banking on boychuk..

  76. sliderule says:

    I had high hopes for mact and unfortunately he has fallen short of my expectations.Not as short as some of you think but short.
    The factors in his favor is that you don’t know how much interference he has had from Lowe.After Tambellini was fired he related to some golfing buddies that Lowe interfered with lots of decisions..I also heard that Lowe prior to hiring Mact told folks that Horcoff was as good as gone.This leads me to think that at least a lot of Mact’s early decisions were influenced by Lowe..
    When Mact spoke up about trading Horcoff and Hemsky without having a deal in place we were shocked .I guess we shouldn’t have been because that was his style as a coach.He publicly criticized Hemsky and Penner for their conditioning and even offered to work out with them.His questioning Dubnyk and calling out Marincin for his lack of strength was just more of same.
    I think you have to give him credit for the MPS and Smid trades.I was against these trades at first but events have proved he was a better judge of these players and got reasonable value.
    The Petry trade was forced on him by his allegedly turning down a 4m x4 year offer.There has been much said about not signing him the summer before but I don’t think any sane GM would have offered any where near that.I guess the answer for that question will be given this summer.
    The decision he made in firing Ralph and hiring Eakins was the worst thing he has done .Eakins seduced him with sweet talk and mutual love of conditioning workouts.After being hired he barely was seen except for a sighting at marathons.He arrived at camp totally unprepared and proceeded to screw the confidence of Yakupov .The whole team over time seemed to lose confidence as scoring plummeted.
    Is the Mact reign recoverable?I think so ,as the one thing he has figured out is you have to draft well.They have added to their scouting lists particularly in the USA.It would appear that the head scout has already been replaced at least in operation of draft if not in name.Like Mact has said ,this draft has to go well if the team is going to recover to respectability.

  77. LMHF#1 says:

    One of MacTavish’s consistent traits has been picking favorites or non-favorites and getting stuck on them. Whether it was Petersen, Reddox, Penner, Ference, even Nurse at the draft or one of a bunch of others, he fixates on a specific player rather than identifying what the team needs and evaluating all possibilities.

    Right now he is likely fixated on Boychuk. I don’t see him signing unless it’s for too much money over too long. He’s a good hockey player but he’s on the wrong side of 30. You can’t give him 5 years.

    Then when they miss or offer too much money and sign him, MacTavish and the rest will be caught flatfooted and get run over as the league snaps up the talent. That’s his pattern. It was also Lowe’s after 2006. They clearly didn’t learn it from Sather so I wonder where it came from.

    Hopefully he won’t get the chance to chase UFAs this offseason.

  78. theres oil in virginia says:

    oliveoilers: OK, I’m out.

    Maybe it’s just me, but I simply cannot understand 85% of your posts.I don’t speak for anyone else, I just genuinely have a problem following your syntax.

    Chances are you are correct, but the way you lay things out and your grammar make it difficult for me to follow.

    Why don’t you have one of those people you pay for clarity put your posts up?

    I’m waiting for Google translate to add “RTB” to its language list.

  79. freedomisamyth says:

    I completely agree that we should be looking at MacT with a critical eye…but I think some here need to also look at their own history of assessments with more of a critical eye, as well as examining their own emotional biases at this point in time, when making their assessments of the job MacT is doing – because maybe your assumptions might also need some examining. Pretty much every person that is indignant about Petry also freaked out about the Smid trade…and Smid so far has proven since leaving that he’s a 3rd pairing defenseman, who isn’t even very good at that, making a lot of money for that position. Everyone was also hysterical about signing Hemsky, so sure he was going to be traded and that he should be signed, even it’s for 5 mill a year..then he got signed, and went on to have 2 very crappy seasons for someone paid as much as he was (which would have been a huge issue if the team had been in cap trouble and any good). Then everyone got hysterical about trading him at the end of that contract, even though he was clearly poor value for the money…and other than a hot streak with Ottawa over a small sample size, so far he’s shown he’s still a pretty average forward at this point in his career, and also still poor value for his money. All the stats guys loved Horcoff and thought he absolutely needed to be signed, even at large money, and of course he went on to be pretty terrible value for the money for the entire contract.

    Anyways, I’m sure someone will cherry pick one or two sentences here and construct a strawman around them, but really my point is this: there has been a distinct tendency to overrate the pieces we have and their importance to success in the future, just because they were the better players on a bad team. Yes, you want to acquire good players, and keep good players, as the common mantra here goes, but it’s not quite so black and white as that and the mantra, like any cliche, is far too simplistic for reality.

    I won’t even get in to how sure people are that this move is good and this move is bad, while missing tons of information that managers have access to that transcends individual play on the ice, as well as completely throwing out swathes of things that are important to group success, just because it can’t be easily quantified by a number (full disclosure: i AM a numbers guy).

    Then there’s the blatant abuse of statistics that happens even with the stats saavy. The worst one imho, is using individual corsi as a measure of how good a player is. The usual reply when called out is that ‘of course you have to use the stats in context’, but the context is so murky that most of the time you can interpret it however you want. Even if you do use the stats with context clearly in mind, seems to me that no research has really shown that you can even trust individual corsi numbers to tell you anything at all accurately, and research HAS shown that defensemen don’t seem to have as much affect on Corsi as forwards anyways (though if I missed something on this topic, my apologies), so what are we really getting out of it?

    Yesterday Woodguy posted that Marincin might be the best LD on the team, or if not, it’s pretty close with Klef with his reasoning being the underlying stats. It seems to me like Woodguy has decided that Marincin is hard done by by management, and so he’s going the opposite direction (unconsciously) and pumping him up way more than warranted because frankly I don’t think it’s very close between the two. I don’t want to pick on Woodguy here because when he’s not in super cynical mode (or being cranky to someone he thinks is being stupid) he’s one of my favorite posters and this kind of thing happens to everyone at one point or another.

    I don’t post this to rag on the collective here or anything, being as in general the reason I come here is to further my knowledge, and this is probably about the best place to do that. I unfortunately don’t have time to add to the stats knowledge around here (even though there’s a few ideas I’d like to slay, but hell I barely get time to read the comments) but I do tend to think that critical thinking regarding biases in the thoughts around here does add some to the knowledge of the collective, and leads to more accurate reasoning in the future.

    Anyways, long story short, so far, I think MacT has done an average at best job as a GM, but he also came in to one of the toughest jobs in the league so I don’t tend to think you can judge by results unless he was winning – ie, winning is proof of competence, but I don’t think losing is proof of incompetence. He’s made some moves that on the face of it I don’t like at all, some moves that I thought were smart bets that didn’t work out, and some that I like a lot. He also hasn’t done anything too rash in my opinion either, despite the intense pressure to. I’ve seen enough smarts out of him that I think he has the potential to be a very good GM with some experience…the only question is whether he’ll learn from his mistakes fast, or if his biggest mistake is still to come. I think many are a bit unfair to him because they are emotionally attached to players (whether they admit it or not) and underestimate the difficult hole he started in. I think many also judge him as if he had different goals than he clearly does – ie, judging him poorly on not getting a second line center when it’s clear a) he didn’t think the team was going to be good enough anyways that adding a second line center would make them playoff worthy and worth giving up a prime asset, and b) he made offers to half a dozen free agents, who all didn’t want to come to Edmonton (presumably he could have convinced one with more money, but being as he didn’t think they’d be any good this year anyways, why handcuff yourself just to sign a stop gap)?

    Christ, I gotta stop the long ranty posts.

  80. RexLibris says:

    Great recap by Cullen. http://www.tsn.ca/hockey-steps-forward-at-sloan-conference-1.224880

    Some inside perspective from Dellow and Eakins.

  81. Pouzar says:

    Jason Williams interview.

    http://alongtheboards.com/2015/02/interview-jason-williams-part-2/2/

    ATB: You’ve played with the Barons all season long and I assume you’ve gotten to know the players fairly well. Which young prospects down in OKC do you see as having the best chance at a long NHL career?

    Williams: Big Bo (Bogdan) Yakimov, the Russian player. At the very beginning of the year, he came down, and he struggled a little bit. But he’s a big, big kid. He’s six-five, 230 or 240. It’s taken him a little bit of time to adjust — it’s his first time over in North America, and he doesn’t speak the language that well. But I think in the last two months, to me, because of his size and the way he protects the puck, he could be a guy that could potentially have a good shot at being in the NHL a long time. There are still a lot of things he needs to learn, but he’s really developed his game and turned it around. He’s been really good for us for the last little bit. I like to try to find those guys, the guys who are long shots.

  82. maudite says:

    The Kruegereque narrative starting to develop around dubnyk needs to stop. Full stop. Dubnyk was a reasonable bet to hold the fort coming into last season. Three factors likely played into that not happening:

    Public knowledge that organization didn’t hold that belief
    New kid
    A brand new 6 inch hole where pads used to be (3 inches per pad due to new regulation)

    #1 can rightly be placed at the feet of Mact. It seems to be a common theme that is terrible management. Announcing a players impending departure before the actual firm deal is in place (dubnyk, Perron, petry). This is plain shitty. Senseless and counterproductive. I for one am fine with the proclamation that our defense is what it is for next year. I’m fine in the hopes he finally has figured out that cards should be held close to chest. Zero benefit screaming about hole cards and what you hope happens on the flop to make your hand better. Pray Mact has learned that.

    In response to poor play:
    Goal coach rightly fired
    Decent bets brought in.

    So dubnyk goes to Nashville and they pass on him at year end as well. Pretty certain time to adjust with an actual, great goalie coach that understands tall tenders put dubnyk back on map. Credit to Sean Burke is largely due. Does the lion share of “losing dubnyk” fall on Mact? I don’t think so. But hopefully it makes him look closer at coaching staff on a continual basis (very unoiler like I know)

    In the same light:
    Bad coaching counts for a lot of issues. We talk about finding defense prospects in a blizzard and how Lowe used to have that…the loss of that ability seems to coincide quite nicely with huddy heading down the road in my brain.

    Bad development philosophy, bad pro scouting, bad pro coaching

    And they blame the amateur scouting? It’s just too rich.

  83. Jordan says:

    Is Dylan Strome Marc Antoine Pouliot?

  84. Pouzar says:

    Tom Gazzola ‏@TomGazzola
    Richard Bachman gets the start against the Hurricanes tomorrow afternoon.

  85. theres oil in virginia says:

    RexLibris:
    Great recap by Cullen. http://www.tsn.ca/hockey-steps-forward-at-sloan-conference-1.224880

    Some inside perspective from Dellow and Eakins.

    That is a great article. Very nice find and thanks for posting it here. I encourage everyone interested in the old-school vs new-school debate to read it. A couple of my favorite quotes:

    Dubas, for example, has a hard time reconciling in his head the idea that defencemen can’t meaningfully affect a goaltender’s save percentage.

    Me too.

    …from Dubas: “Sometimes we’re so anxious to prove that we are right that we will dismiss what we can’t measure. You can’t ignore the human element.”

    Stoopid hoomans! They’re such a pain.

  86. Pouzar says:

    theres oil in virginia: That is a great article.Very nice find and thanks for posting it here.I encourage everyone interested in the old-school vs new-school debate to read it.A couple of my favorite quotes:

    Dubas, for example, has a hard time reconciling in his head the idea that defencemen can’t meaningfully affect a goaltender’s save percentage.

    Me too.

    …from Dubas: “Sometimes we’re so anxious to prove that we are right that we will dismiss what we can’t measure. You can’t ignore the human element.”

    Stoopid hoomans!They’re such a pain.

    I haven’t read the article but I don’t need to now. Those are the money quotes for me.

  87. GCW_69 says:

    theres oil in virginia: Can you remind me of the history of this?The memory, it fails.What was Petry’s status in Summer 2013?

    He had completed year one of his two year deal. When a player signs a deal longer than one year you can negotiate an extension begining July 1 the year before the deal ends. Petry’s two year deal ended June 30 2014, therefore the Oilers could have negotiated starting July 1 2013.

  88. theres oil in virginia says:

    Pouzar: I haven’t read the article but I don’t need to now. Those are the money quotes for me.

    You should read it, man. There are some more really good quotes in there. It should help (hopefully) to depolarize the debate.

    Hey LT. Do you ever have Scott Cullen on the Lowedown? He’s the author of that article. Is it possible to book him?

  89. theres oil in virginia says:

    GCW_69: He had completed year one of his two year deal.When a player signs a deal longer than one year you can negotiate an extension begining July 1 the year before the deal ends. Petry’s two year deal ended June 30 2014, therefore the Oilers could have negotiated starting July 1 2013.

    I see, thanks. I vaguely remember now that there was some consternation about no negotiations during that time. I guess, though, that it doesn’t change my point above. I agree that MacT was late on the evaluation of Petry. I’m arguing that it was the only part of this that he owns. Which is not negligible, but also not total.

  90. go_oil says:

    Pouzar,

    Pouzar:
    Jason Williams interview.

    http://alongtheboards.com/2015/02/interview-jason-williams-part-2/2/

    ATB: You’ve played with the Barons all season long and I assume you’ve gotten to know the players fairly well. Which young prospects down in OKC do you see as having the best chance at a long NHL career?

    Williams: Big Bo (Bogdan) Yakimov, the Russian player. At the very beginning of the year, he came down, and he struggled a little bit. But he’s a big, big kid. He’s six-five, 230 or 240. It’s taken him a little bit of time to adjust — it’s his first time over in North America, and he doesn’t speak the language that well. But I think in the last two months, to me, because of his size and the way he protects the puck, he could be a guy that could potentially have a good shot at being in the NHL a long time. There are still a lot of things he needs to learn, but he’s really developed his game and turned it around. He’s been really good for us for the last little bit. I like to try to find those guys, the guys who are long shots.

    That’s a great 2 part interview… mentions Khaira too. And: “Brandon Davidson, I think that he’s been very key for our team. He leads by example, he’s very vocal in the room. The guys respect him, and he comes to the rink every single day and works very hard. He plays with a lot of intensity and a lot of grit.”

    Williams was a great veteran signing for OKC. His insights to the Detroit system and coaching were good too. “They let you develop at your own pace, and I think that’s key. Some guys are going to develop faster, some are going to take more time to develop, but I think they’re very patient with bringing the players in at the right time. When players are playing the best that (the organization) thinks they can, then they get called up.”

    Hopefully the Oilers get to that patient point in development… but that’s also on MacT signing/trading for incumbent pros to stem the tide. It really is curious how Perron and Petry are traded off for picks. Another important summer in how the Oilers fill the holes. Oh to sign/trade for some Soderberg, Boychuk/Petry (he left the door open right?) and Bernier types… one can dream.

    I also found it interesting what Williams said regarding “hope plays” in regards to Andrew Miller: “There’s a few things he needs to get out of his game, and it’s hard, I’ve been there. In junior you get into the offensive zone and you throw that pass, hoping that someone is in the middle of the ice or out front to get it. We call those ‘hope plays.’ He needs to get those out of his game…” I think the same can be said for a lot of the players currently on the Oilers too.

  91. Unicorns says:

    To me MacT has not carried forward from whatever is going on behind closed doors. The only way I can support him or the management group again is if something like this happens this summer:

    Hall RNH Fehr = 6+6+3 = 15
    Pouliot Santorelli Yakupov = 4+2.5+3 = 9.5
    Drai Lander Letestu = .925+1.5+3 = 5.425
    Hend Gordon Klink =1.85+3+.725 = 5.575
    Gazzer Pakarinen=.8+.843 = 1.643

    Sekera Boychuk = 4.5+6 = 10.5
    Marincin Fayne = 1.15+3.625 = 4.775
    Klef Schultz = .833 +4 = 4.833
    XXX = 1.25

    Bernier / Scrivens = 4.5+2.3 = 6.8

    Bonus 2.958
    Salary 65.301
    Retained 6.125
    Cap 71.426

    I’m not sold on Boychuk but I’m using players they like and some they’d have to learn to appreciate which to me is realistic in this context of change. Santorelli and Letestu are both RH centres and while not big, they aren’t undersized. If the cap doesn’t go up they’ll have to find the .426 somewhere.

    The idea here is that the only one dimensional players are Schultz and Gazdic, each line and pairing has a physical element so the team can play any style of opponent, and there are 6 centres. Team speed should be good and the talent level should support a high tempo game, Oiler hockey.

    I think GF will be about the same initially but will trend up from improved team play and players maturing, and hopefully better goaltending, and GA will be reduced immediately and be stable. It won’t trend down for a few years as rookies will still be coming onto the roster.

    All UFA’s have been overpaid to entice them. Ference, Purcell and Nikitin have been moved with 50% retained, which I think is possible. In 2016 4.5M from Purcell and Nikitin goes back to cap space which can go to Klefbom’s raise.

    Eberle has been dealt for cap space and a high pick this draft and the Pitts 1st got Bernier. The system has 2 exceptional prospects from the 2015 draft and any others they hit on with the other picks, the roster is skilled, balanced and deep, 3 skilled lines and all 4 can score. There is no weak or over-matched pairing. No cap issues looming. The only wild card is goalies.

  92. PunjabiOil says:

    Is Dylan Strome Marc Antoine Pouliot?

    No.

  93. PunjabiOil says:

    Ference and Boychuk are purportedly really good friends. Could see it being a reason to not trade/buy-out Ference.

    I want to believe Boychuk is coming back home, but Stauffer suggested a few weeks ago that it’s likely he will re-sign with the Islanders.

    So there’s that.

  94. Pouzar says:

    theres oil in virginia: You should read it, man.There are some more really good quotes in there.It should help (hopefully) to depolarize the debate.

    Hey LT.Do you ever have Scott Cullen on the Lowedown?He’s the author of that article.Is it possible to book him?

    Thanks….just finished….and here’s another gem:

    “Same goes for teams that make training camp decisions based on performance over a couple of weeks.”

  95. theres oil in virginia says:

    PunjabiOil:
    Ference and Boychuk are purportedly really good friends. Could see it being a reason to not trade/buy-out Boychuk.

    I want to believe Boychuk is coming back home, but Stauffer suggested a few weeks ago that it’s likely he will re-sign with the Islanders.

    So there’s that.

    JustDoIt (or Tank Matthews AKA) posted a clip of Boychuck stating that he hoped to sign back with the Isles. Still, things can happen to change that.

  96. russ99 says:

    Hopefully Schultz can pack on a few pounds tha summer, he’ll be 25 this summer.

    He’s not a small guy, but he’s often outmuscled. The trick is to do it without losing speed.

    MacT making Ference and Nikitin the hill he’ll die on is becoming worrisome. What happens when Nurse arrives at some point next season and he still refuses to part with either?

    As many have said, decisions need to start being made with a focus on improving the club.

    And yes it’s a sunny day here in Chicago, and it’s finally gotten above freezing for the first time in a month. Plus they’re forecasting 50s next week, spring can’t be too far behind…

  97. Marc says:

    Lowetide: There’s simply no way to make that statement and then say “how much blame can we lay at MacT’s feet. It happened on his watch. It’s on him. We can talk about the sins of Tambellini but Craig MacTavish had an opportunity to sign Petry long term, they were talking an extended deal last summer.

    It’s very important to remember things as they happened because our mind plays tricks on us.

    You can’t blame – or applaud – a GM for not signing a player unless you know precisely what terms the player was seeking and the GM refused to give.

    If Petry’s best offer was a 5x$4M and MacT refused, then he deserves blame. That’s a good value deal for a second pairing D giving up a bunch of UFA years

    If Petry’s best offer was a 6x$6.5M and MacT refused, then he deserves applause for avoiding a millstone contract.

    I don’t have a problem with criticising MacT for things that he’s demonstrably done wrong. I just don’t think there’s sufficient information to do so here. You’re essentially assuming that in 2013/14 there was a long term deal Petry was willing to sign that also represented good value to the Oilers. We have zero evidence that that is in fact true.

    I don’t see how MacT can be criticised for failing to get Petry signed to a mythical contract.

  98. Lowetide says:

    Marc: You can’t blame – or applaud – a GM for not signing a player unless you know precisely what terms the player was seeking and the GM refused to give.

    If Petry’s best offer was a 5x$4M and MacT refused, then he deserves blame. That’s a good value deal for a second pairing D giving up a bunch of UFA years

    If Petry’s best offer was a 6x$6.5M and MacT refused, then he deserves applause for avoiding a millstone contract.

    I don’t have a problem with criticising MacT for things that he’s demonstrably done wrong. I just don’t think there’s sufficient information to do so here.You’re essentially assuming that in 2013/14 there was a long term deal Petry was willing to sign that also represented good value to the Oilers. We have zero evidence that that is in fact true.

    I don’t see how MacT can be criticised for failing to get Petry signed to a mythical contract.

    Ryan Rishaug @TSNRyanRishaug · Mar 2

    Offer to Petry was around 4 million a year for four years. He wanted to go to market.

  99. commonfan14 says:

    Marc: If Petry’s best offer was a 6x$6.5M and MacT refused, then he deserves applause for avoiding a millstone contract.

    If that were the case, MacT should have traded him in the summer when he was still RFA and before his hand-picked coach had a chance to HS him some more.

    There’s simply no way to spin this where he did anything approaching a good job of handling the situation.

  100. crazyoil says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Good question. I have a couple of my own. Would he need to clear waivers before he could be assigned to the AHL? If so, then no. Also is his contract expired upon completion of the season or does it run to June 30 (or equivalent) like NHL pacts do, in which case can an accommodation be made?

    No doubt there is precedent for these queries but i have a hard time remembering fine details of the CBA type.

    If I remember correctly from the Ryan O’Reilly offer sheet. Colorado was allowed to match the offer and O’Reilly didn’t have to clear waivers first because he was on their negotiation list. However if Colorado let him go to Calgary then he would have to go through waivers.

    So it depends if Slepy is on the Oilers negotiation list. (This is all assuming that I remember correctly, which would be a big assumption)

  101. Marc says:

    Lowetide: Ryan Rishaug @TSNRyanRishaug·Mar 2

    Offer to Petry was around 4 million a year for four years. He wanted to go to market.

    That would have been a good deal for the Oilers if Petry was willing to sign it. But he wasn’t.

    My point is that we don’t know what amount, if any, Petry would have been willing to sign for to forgo free agency. And without knowing that we can’t determine whether MacT refusing to pay that much represents good GMing or bad GMing.

  102. theres oil in virginia says:

    Lowetide: Ryan Rishaug @TSNRyanRishaug·Mar 2

    Offer to Petry was around 4 million a year for four years. He wanted to go to market.

    I think the problem there is that “Petry refused”. Not “MacT refused”, as in Marc’s scenario. Tthat offer came in March. (Not sure how many years for the term.) Would Petry have refused that in Summer 2014? Or Summer 2013, as GCW was suggesting as the correct timeframe to negotiate long-term? I doubt he refuses that in 2013. 2014…I’m not sure.

  103. Lowetide says:

    theres oil in virginia: I think the problem there is that “Petry refused”.Not “MacT refused”, as in Marc’s scenario. Tthat offer came in March.(Not sure how many years for the term.)Would Petry have refused that in Summer 2014?Or Summer 2013, as GCW was suggesting as the correct timeframe to negotiate long-term?I doubt he refuses that in 2013.2014…I’m not sure.

    The Oilers offered him about $1M below what market value will be all down the line. The idea that Petry has no idea about what he’ll get in free agency implies the industry doesn’t communicate. Craig MacTavish badly misjudged Jeff Petry because, despite talking about advanced stats and knowledge, he falls back on his own bias when making big money decisions.

    It’s no sin, we all do it. However, it will cost him his job as GM. My guess is by this time next season.

  104. Jon K says:

    Since we’ve commented on the possibility of Group Think within the Lowe regime, some of the info posted on TSN today from Eakins/Dellow at the Sloan Analytics conference are right on point.

    http://www.tsn.ca/hockey-steps-forward-at-sloan-conference-1.224880

    Since Dellow had spent plenty of time criticizing the Oilers before getting hired, Eakins quickly addressed the elephant in the room. “How could we hire someone who was so negative about our team,” he asked. “Well, we haven’t been very good.”

    Eakins later added, “If you have a team full of bobbleheads, agreeing with everything, then you’re in trouble.” It’s okay to have disagreement and Eakins said that, when working for Brian Burke, they would regularly have spirited discussions about players.

  105. Ryan says:

    Lowetide: The Oilers offered him about $1M below what market value will be all down the line. The idea that Petry has no idea about what he’ll get in free agency implies the industry doesn’t communicate. Craig MacTavish badly misjudged Jeff Petry because, despite talking about advanced stats and knowledge, he falls back on his own bias when making big money decisions.

    It’s no sin, we all do it. However, it will cost him his job as GM. My guess is by this time next season.

    Absolutely.

    There’s also the other side of the coin. If you start with the assumption that you don’t want Petry long-term (devil’s advocate here)…

    Maybe just maybe your priority is to maximize the return on Petry whether that’s trading him as an RFA last summer or even while he has a year term on the contract at a friendly cap hit.

    Timing wise, short of not trading him at all and letting him walk, I Cant think of a scenario how this could have been managed worse in terms of maximizing the return on Petry.

  106. Jon K says:

    theres oil in virginia: I think the problem there is that “Petry refused”.Not “MacT refused”, as in Marc’s scenario. Tthat offer came in March.(Not sure how many years for the term.)Would Petry have refused that in Summer 2014?Or Summer 2013, as GCW was suggesting as the correct timeframe to negotiate long-term?I doubt he refuses that in 2013.2014…I’m not sure.

    You work at a company that is going nowhere and you are unhappy. Your boss offers you a salary 25% less than what you know you can get from multiple suitors elsewhere. This works out to about $10 million over the next half decade.

    Would you stay around? Would you agree that the situation should be characterized as you “refusing” to stay with your employer?

    Edit: Oh and you’re employer has low-balled you the last two times you re-upped your contract.

  107. Marc says:

    commonfan14: If that were the case, MacT should have traded him in the summer when he was still RFA and before his hand-picked coach had a chance to HS him some more.

    There’s simply no way to spin this where he did anything approaching a good job of handling the situation.

    Would an unsigned player who can opt for free agency in a year be that much more valuable than he was at the deadline?

    Petry played the best hockey of his life over the past two or three months and was still rated by NHL GMs as only the fourth or fifth best rental D option. Absent that run of play, and holding the UFA hammer in contract negotiations, I’m not sure teams would have been falling over themselves to give up value and cap space for him.

  108. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide,

    I don’t get how MacTs final offer to Petry is 4 mil a year after he signed Nikitin to more last year. Just doesn’t make any sense. Its like he expected Petry to take a pay cut for MacTs poor decision to severely overpay for Nikitn.

    And how is Dubnyk not in the Vezina discussion. His save percentage is more than 30 points higher on avg than any other goalie on Min and Ari. Some of us here always knew that he would come through.

  109. GCW_69 says:

    Marc: Would an unsigned player who can opt for free agency in a year be that much more valuable than he was at the deadline?

    Yes. In the summer he could have been traded for an actual NHL player, even if it was one with one year left on his deal like Petry. Then you have a year to sign the player.

    The Oilers can no longer afford to trade actual NHL players for anything less than other NHL players of equal or greater value. It’s the only way to break the cycle.

  110. GCW_69 says:

    leadfarmer: I don’t get how MacTs final offer to Petry is 4 mil a year after he signed Nikitin to more last year.

    It’s a not so subtle way of saying “fuck you, I need to make you an offer due to fan perceptions, but I don’t really want you to sign unless you are willing to bend over and take it up the… No? Ok, I am trading you.”

  111. Jon K says:

    GCW_69,

    Absolutely yes to both of your posts.

    Many of the defenders moved this deadline only had a year left on their contracts.

  112. theres oil in virginia says:

    Lowetide: The Oilers offered him about $1M below what market value will be all down the line. The idea that Petry has no idea about what he’ll get in free agency implies the industry doesn’t communicate. Craig MacTavish badly misjudged Jeff Petry because, despite talking about advanced stats and knowledge, he falls back on his own bias when making big money decisions.

    It’s no sin, we all do it. However, it will cost him his job as GM. My guess is by this time next season.

    Part of this I agree with. The Oilers offered him less than he would take for long-term, going all the way back to Tambellini. That’s part of my point. At what point was it too late? Probably, as GCW states above, Summer 2013. MacT probably could have signed him long-term to reasonable dollars then. He was unwilling to take that chance. (After that, my guess is that Petry held out for UFA money, seeing the finish line just ahead. Smart move. He’s now UFA in a few months.) Did he fall back on bias? I don’t know, but whatever the reason, he failed to do it, and I think it was because he at each point wanted the player to prove himself, but MacT was always a step behind the curve. Tambellini created the problem, MacT failed to clean it up.

    I’ve not at any point insinuated that Petry (or his agent) don’t/didn’t know what the market was for him. I’m not sure where that’s coming from.

    I wouldn’t say MacT “badly misjudged”, but I guess at this point it’s quibbling about semantics. They (the Oilers) obviously weren’t as worried about losing him as most of us are, but I guess that’s part of your point.

    If you mean that this one situation (Petry) will cost him his job, I don’t agree. If you mean that making these mistakes repeatedly will, then yes, I agree. At some level, his hands were tied with Petry. Let’s see how he handles Schultz, a player who, much like Petry was, is young and much maligned for his shortcomings. Can MacT correctly identify the talent level before it’s too late? I’m not sure. Marincin? I think how he handles these and other, similar generation, players is what will define his success/failure.

  113. Marc says:

    Lowetide: The Oilers offered him about $1M below what market value will be all down the line. The idea that Petry has no idea about what he’ll get in free agency implies the industry doesn’t communicate. Craig MacTavish badly misjudged Jeff Petry because, despite talking about advanced stats and knowledge, he falls back on his own bias when making big money decisions.

    It’s no sin, we all do it. However, it will cost him his job as GM. My guess is by this time next season.

    Or perhaps he decided that paying UFA market value for his second pairing D wasn’t how he wanted to allocate his cap space for the 4-6 years, given that Yakupov, Draisaitl, Nurse, Klembom and McEichel will all need long term contracts in the next couple of years.

  114. GCW_69 says:

    This was nice to see posted today on tsn

    Taylor Fedun, D – Called up from minors from Worcester-AHL

  115. theres oil in virginia says:

    Jon K: You work at a company that is going nowhere and you are unhappy. Your boss offers you a salary 25% less than what you know you can get from multiple suitors elsewhere. This works out to about $10 million over the next half decade.

    Would you stay around? Would you agree that the situation should be characterized as you “refusing” to stay with your employer?

    Edit: Oh and you’re employer has low-balled you the last two times you re-upped your contract.

    I think you’re putting too much emphasis on the word “refuse”. If someone offers you a bad deal and you refuse, then it’s a refusal. It doesn’t imply that you’re being obstinate.

  116. GCW_69 says:

    theres oil in virginia: Can MacT correctly identify the talent level before it’s too late? I’m not sure. Marincin? I think how he handles these and other, similar generation, players is what will define his success/failure.

    I think LT’s point is that unless he can replace Petry AND add another strong two way defender, the oilers will suck again next year and that will be it for MacT.

    He now has to get Boychuk and Sekera to have a real nhl defence. What are the odds of that? Even if he does, he will screw up the cap for signing the other players you mentioned.

  117. godot10 says:

    Marc:
    Petry played the best hockey of his life over the past two or three months and was still rated by NHL GMs as only the fourth or fifth best rental D option. Absent that run of play, and holding the UFA hammer in contract negotiations, I’m not sure teams would have been falling over themselves to give up value and cap space for him.

    No. Petry played his best hockey under Krueger when he was taking on the toughs with Smid, and the Oilers finished 24th, with a -9 GD, on the first year of a two year contract, with MacT already back in the organization in an advisory role. The D that year were Petry, a rookie in JSchutlz, Smid and NSchultz, one legged Ryan Whitney, Fistric, and Potter. And Petry played so well in the final Renney year, Lowe and Tambellini decided Gilbert was expendible on the right side.

    MacT got to watch him close up for two full seasons, one as an advisor, and one as GM, before this season.

    This narrative that Petry has played well for only a couple of months is absurd. He has played well for 4 seasons now.

  118. Marc says:

    leadfarmer:
    Lowetide,

    I don’t get how MacTs final offer to Petry is 4 mil a year after he signed Nikitin to more last year.Just doesn’t make any sense.Its like he expected Petry to take a pay cut for MacTs poor decision to severely overpay for Nikitn.

    I suspect Nikitin’s overpay was in exchange for the short term. I don’t think MacT is too fussed about the cap over the next year or two, as a lot players will be on ELCs. I think he’s very concerned about the cap 3-5 years from now because those players on ELCs or bridge deals will need long term contracts.

    If Petry were willing to do a two year deal, I bet that MacT would have given him market value. But why should Petry take a short deal at market value when he can just hit the market and get a longer deal?

  119. godot10 says:

    Marc: Or perhaps he decided that paying UFA market value for his second pairing D wasn’t how he wanted to allocate his cap space for the 4-6 years, given that Yakupov, Draisaitl, Nurse, Klembom and McEichel will all need long term contracts in the next couple of years.

    Petry, unlike Ference or Boychuk, is entering the prime of his career. If one signed him to a market value contract, it would likely always remain tradeable, since he would still be in the prime years of his career in the final half of the contract.

    Signing a 26 or 27-year old to market value for 5 years is much less risky than signing a 30-something to a 5 year contract.

  120. theres oil in virginia says:

    GCW_69: I think LT’s point is that unless he can replace Petry AND add another strong two way defender,the oilers will suck again next year and that will be it for MacT.

    He now has to get Boychuk and Sekera to have a real nhl defence.What are the odds of that? Even if he does,he will screw up the cap for signing the other players you mentioned.

    I don’t think he’ll get names like Boychuck, etc. We’ll see. I wonder what the owner’s expectations are regarding next year. (Expectations meaning what he wants to see, not what he guesses he’ll see.) I don’t think the Oil finish lower than 25th, but hell I didn’t think they’d finish that low this year. If they are bottom 5, I agree, he’s probably out. If they flirt with the playoffs…a la Dallas this year…he’s golden.

  121. leadfarmer says:

    Marc,

    2 mil per for 2 years is overpayment. 4.5 mil per for 2 years is insanity

  122. Mr DeBakey says:

    godot10: Signing a 26 or 27-year old to market value for 5 years is much less risky than signing a 30-something to a 5 year contract.

    Johhny Boychuk, Come On Down!

  123. Ray says:

    leadfarmer:
    Marc,

    2 mil per for 2 years is overpayment.4.5 mil per for 2 years is insanity

    That’s gotta be the problem. MacT read the offer as 4.5 over 2 years not 4.5 per year for two years… he’s just horrible with paperwork.

  124. Gordies Elbow says:

    Marc: I suspect Nikitin’s overpay was in exchange for the short term. I don’t think MacT is too fussed about the cap over the next year or two, as a lot players will be on ELCs.I think he’s very concerned about the cap 3-5 years from now because those players on ELCs or bridge deals will need long term contracts.

    I’d say that that was the likeliest scenario. He was overpaid to be a placeholder for Nurse, likely with the thought that he could be flipped at the trade deadline next year. That said, his foot/ankle injury apparently didn’t recover, and he’s sprialled into a series of injuries that have hampered his play.

    That, combined with Ryan R’s tweet “Offer to Petry was around 4 million a year for four years. He wanted to go to market.” – I woudn’t doubt that the initial offer was 4 million over 4. More than 5 over 5 would have hamstrung Edmonton, and I don’t doubt that Petry’s camp will get that on the free market. If Petry’s play regresses to how he played up to last year (tentative, not physical) when he doesn’t have the contract pressure, what would Edmonton fans think of him as a 5+ million dollar second or third line defender?

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