WAITING ON SLEPYSHEV

Anton Slepyshev’s season is now complete and the young Russian has a strong story to tell. The Edmonton Oilers can sign him this spring and if they bring him over there’s every chance he’ll emerge as a legit prospect and one of the best young scorers in the system.

THE BOXCARS FROM RUSSIA

  • Boxcars: 58GP, 15-10-25 in regular season
  • Breakdown: 14 goals at even strength, one on the power play
  • SOG: 129 (11.6 shooting percentage, 2.22 shots-per-game)
  • TOI/game: 12:25
  • Points-per-60: 2.08
  • Playoff boxcars: 5GP, 0-2-2
  • Playoffs SOG: 14 (2.8 shots-per-game)
  • Playoffs TOI/game: 16:26
  • Points-per-60: 3.66
  • NHLE (Regular season): 82GP, 17-11-28

I think it makes him the best scoring option among the new hires for 2015-16 at the AHL level and he’ll probably be heard from in the NHL sooner than later.

RUS - SUIAnton Slepyshev, Dario Simion, Melvin NyffelerSlepyshev is a fascinating prospect for a few reasons. His arrival will come at a time when the organization is taking a great deal of heat about their drafting record and he should be able to break through the minor-league competition fairly soon. Here’s a look at where he might land on the team’s depth chart in 2015-16, beginning at the NHL level:

  1. L Taylor Hall: He’s No. 1 if healthy.
  2. R Jordan Eberle: Top RW. Book it.
  3. L Benoit Pouliot: He’s shown enough in year one to get a top 6F gig.
  4. R Nail Yakupov: Surging as the season winds down, suspect he’ll be a feature player next year.
  5. R Teddy Purcell: Skill winger has come in very handy during this trying season.
  6. L Matt Hendricks: As long as he can keep up he’ll have a job. Posting a terrific year.
  7. R Rob Klinkhammer: Like Hendricks, completes assignments on time and legibly.
  8. R Tyler Pitlick: Getting mighty crowded but his speed keeps him in the NHL ahead of Fraser, maybe others.
  9. L Luke Gazdic: The only question surrounds his skill set. If Edmonton employs an enforcer F, he’s it.
  10. L Matt Fraser: I can’t see him returning, not at the NHL level. He simply hasn’t shown enough.

I think the top seven men return, meaning there are two openings. One is likely Gazdic’s to lose and Pitlick probably beats out Fraser (we’re assuming the club doesn’t add anyone, suspect they will). Now let’s examine the AHL plus possible additions via graduating draft picks/prospects (new pro’s underlined):

  1. R Iiro Pakarinen: He’s absolutely the top option available. I don’t see a reasonable argument to the contrary.
  2. L Leon Draisaitl: Likely headed to AHL and may emerge as a C option but I could see him playing as a LW for portions of 2015-16.
  3. L Ryan Hamilton: On the strength of his two-way deal I’ll say he’s in the mix in a big way.
  4. L Anton Slepyshev: If he signs, my guess is he emerges as an AHL first-shot scorer in short order.
  5. R Andrew Miller: He may get a chance here but there’s so much ahead of him. In the old-timey days, they’d called it a ‘numbers game’ for Miller.
  6. L Curtis Hamilton: He impressed enough to get another deal in my opinion.
  7. L Kale Kessy: Will have to re-establish himself but good things were happening when the injury derailed him.
  8. R Greg Chase: Excited to see how he’ll adjust. We’ll assume two years in the minors but I wouldn’t bet on it.
  9. L Mitch Moroz: Basically a lost season due to inactivity (an organizational error) he’ll be an AHL regular in 2015-16.
  10. R Jackson Houck: I have a hard time seeing where he fits. I think they thought they were drafting a more physical player.
  11. R John McCarron: Big college winger, no idea if they plan to sign him.

The Oilers will probably employ 18-20 wingers in Edmonton and Bakersfield next season. Among the 23 I’ve listed here, it would seem to me that if Slepyshev does sign he’s probably two NHL injuries from making an appearance in the show during 2015-16. If he gets off to a fast start, or the new coach decides speed is an issue (right now for Edmonton’s NHL wingers, speed is an issue) I think we could see Slepyshev in year one of his entry-level deal.

 

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40 Responses to "WAITING ON SLEPYSHEV"

  1. Raider Jesse says:

    Al, you forgot the best narrative. We get another 1st* overall pick in the line up if he signs.

    *KHL 1st Overall pick

    That being said, he has a combination of speed and puck skills beyond any of our prospects. I really think he has a chance and I’d love to see a Tkachev, Yakimov, Slepyshev line in the AHL to start next year. Bring on the Russians!

  2. theres oil in virginia says:

    Excellently timed article. I was just thinking “Where does Slepyshev land on the organization’s depth chart 2015-16?” I bet I’m not the only one.

    I keep hoping Horak reappears too.

  3. Gordies Elbow says:

    theres oil in virginia,

    Horak’s team had a couple of guys with NHL experience that could be poached:
    – Maxim Afinogenov
    – Mikhail Yakubov
    – Denis Grebeshkov
    – Alexei Semenov

    On second thought, maybe we should be looking at another league… 😉

  4. Gordies Elbow says:

    PS: I’m not sure that this hasn’t been posted, but OKC added Brad Winchester yesterday.

    link

  5. John Chambers says:

    My guess is one of Slepyshev, Chase, Roy, Platzer, or Houck manages to make it and have a few seasons as a solid top-9 player in the NHL. At this point I probably rank them:
    Slep
    Platzer
    Chase
    Roy
    Houck

    I put them all a tier below Yakimov in terms of likelihood to succeed, and a tier ahead of forwards like Hamilton and Moroz.

  6. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Tyler Seguin returns very early from injury and scores his 30th in his first game.

  7. Raider Jesse says:

    DSF never change.

  8. DBO says:

    Hopefully we are all surprised by MacT. Nothing he has done leads me to believe that can happen.

    However, if he does play smart this off season, the draft an be his salvation. We don’t need multiple 2nd and 3rd Rd picks. We need to use them to poach from teams in cap trouble. Chicago, Boston, Tampa, LA, etc. and go for any team with a surplus of one position who may be in transition (aka Ottawa with goalies).

    Shopping list I believe can actually happen, and I’m not drinking

    Mid Rd pick (3 or 4)to Boston for Eriksson for our two way 3rd line winger.

    The Pittsburgh 1st, one of our D, and another prospect to Toronto for Phaneuf.
    I pray it’s not Marincin, and somehow he sends Nikitin. But I expect its Marincin and Toronto will eat 1.5 mill of his salary.

    Montreals 2nd and a prospect to Ottawa for Lehner.
    They like the hamburgler, and since he is young they will keep Anderson for a few years, so he is the goalie to go, and since they are budget conscious and still building so a 2nd is valuable.

    Hall. Nuge. eberle. (Pvp)
    Purcell.Roy. yakupov (soft parade)
    Pouliot. Lander. Ericsson. (2nd toughs)
    Hendricks. Gordon. Klink (checking)

    Phaneuf. Fayne
    Klefbom. Schultz.
    Nikitin. Ference

    Lehner
    Scrivens

    Playoffs? Maybe. If goalie holds up. Which really, ala Calgary, is the most important.

  9. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Raider Jesse:
    DSF never change.

    Okay.

    And he scores again. 31.

  10. Gordies Elbow says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    Personally, if I cared enough, I’d pay attention to it. In the interests of this blog, I’d say we can use advanced stats to track it.

    Times posted? 2.
    Care of fact? 0.

    0/2 Care factor per game.

    Your trolling is degrading over time. I’d expect at least a .5 caring factor, at this point and time. Weak.

  11. Stud Muffin says:

    Hopefully the oilers can add Frolik or Glencross in the off season

  12. Johnny says:

    I thought the whole thing with Slepyshev was that he was not interested in playing hockey in North America….

    Isn’t that why he wasn’t drafted in his first year of eligibility?

  13. v4ance says:

    http://oilersnation.com/2015/3/7/you-have-nothing-without-it

    Continuing the ongoing discussion on goalies, I’d like to come out against acquiring Craig Anderson, Niemi or Cam Ward in the offseason.

    Anderson has alternated good/average or bad for the past 7 years based on save %(0.917 2009-10, 0.897 2010-11 COL, 0.939 2010-11 OTT, 0.913 2011-12, 0.941 2012-13, 0.911 2013-14, 0.927 2014-15). He’s also turning 34 and about to hit the time when goalies can fall off a cliff in effectiveness. Add to that, he’s been out of the lineup for long stretches with various injuries in 2 of the past 3 years. Anderson would be, at best, a one year stopgap in net and not a long term solution.

    Niemi is a good goalie but to me he’s like Chris Osgood. He’s been an average goalie, but not exceptional, even on good teams. On a bad team like the Oilers with an expansion calibre defence, I fear he might crumble like so many others who have come through the organization recently.

    Cam Ward has had one great postseason. Unfortunately, it was 2005-06 when he carried the Canes and beat the Oilers. For a $6.3 million cap hit, he’s been nothing but average with a career save % of 0.910.

    I like Elliotte Friedman’s suggestion of Fredrik Andersen from Anaheim. No one gives away #1 goalies but with John Gibson being a first round draft pick there may be some internal pressure to give the job to the player with the higher draft pedigree.

    The best time to get someone who will be a #1 G is RIGHT before they prove themselves good enough to be #1. Kiprusoff, Cory Schneider and Ben Bishop are good examples of this kind of acquisition. They all performed well in small samples but didn’t patently outshine the incumbents on their previous teams. The teams that traded for them were all taking a calculated risk.

  14. scratch says:

    Mitch Moroz was just diagnosed with mono and not a new case but he has had it for 2 months. Trainers thought he needed more conditioning due to his fatigue levels not realizing there may have been a reason for his lack of energy.

  15. Ray says:

    Any thoughts on Martin out of Pittsburgh as a UFA target, pairing him with Fayne would seems like a good match to make a balanced pairing that could handle any competition. He would give a good left handed vet to man the point on the PP as well.

  16. SVR says:

    Any boxing fans around? Fights on NBC right now. First time on primetime in 30 years. Love it!

  17. Unicorns says:

    I don’t get the Horak love. He’s an undersized winger with mediocre offense and no experience. He can’t help the Oilers. Roy isn’t very good and small, Phaneuf is a 2D and the Oilers need a 1 LD. I think they need other players.

    The goalie thing is a crap shoot. Every time I see any of Bernier he’s not good.

  18. Gerta Rauss says:

    Johnny:
    I thought the whole thing with Slepyshev was that he was not interested in playing hockey in North America….

    Isn’t that why he wasn’t drafted in his first year of eligibility?

    I believe that’s true, he did pass through the draft once. I think the economic health(or lack thereof) of the KHL may change a few players minds about playing in North America

  19. godot10 says:

    v4ance:
    http://oilersnation.com/2015/3/7/you-have-nothing-without-it

    I like Elliotte Friedman’s suggestion of Fredrik Andersen from Anaheim.No one gives away #1 goalies but with John Gibson being a first round draft pick there may be some internal pressure to give the job to the player with the higher draft pedigree.

    Both Andersen and Gibson are on extreme value contracts for one more year. Anaheim doesn’t have to make a decision on which they like better till after next season. They would be nuts to trade either one till summer 2016, unless it was an extreme overpay.

    Why would they throw away being two goaltenders deep next year?

    It is why I don’t mind Ward, because he is on an expiring contract next year. You don’t have to make a long term commitment to him without test driving him next year, unlike Niemi.

  20. GCW_69 says:

    v4ance: Fredrik Andersen from Anaheim. No one gives away #1 goalies but with John Gibson being a first round draft pick there may be some internal pressure to give the job to the player with the higher draft pedigree.

    I don’t think they can keep them both. Ditto with Tampa and Vasilevskiy/Bishop. With Anaheim, I really think it depends on how Andersen plays in the playoffs. If he plays well, Gibson could shake loose for a missing piece. With tampa, if your don’t get Vasilevskiy this summer, you will have to wait for bishop to get pushed out.

  21. GCW_69 says:

    godot10: Both Andersen and Gibson are on extreme value contracts for one more year. Anaheim doesn’t have to make a decision on which they like better till after next season. They would be nuts to trade either one till summer 2016, unless it was an extreme overpay.

    They may trade one if they feel they can get a missing piece to a cup. Question is, what’s the piece and do the Oilers have it?

  22. Edmonton_fan says:

    According to Hockey’s Future: He has yet to sign an entry-level contract with the Oilers and would re-enter the 2015 NHL Draft if not signed by June 2015.

    http://www.hockeysfuture.com/prospects/anton-slepyshev/

    Is the information accurate?

  23. Lowetide says:

    Edmonton_fan:
    According to Hockey’s Future: He has yet to sign an entry-level contract with the Oilers and would re-enter the 2015 NHL Draft if not signed by June 2015.

    http://www.hockeysfuture.com/prospects/anton-slepyshev/

    Is the information accurate?

    Yes.

  24. Lowetide says:

    GCW_69: I don’t think they can keep them both.Ditto with Tampa and Vasilevskiy/Bishop.With Anaheim, I really think it depends on how Andersen plays in the playoffs.If he plays well, Gibson could shake loose for a missing piece.With tampa, if your don’t get Vasilevskiy this summer, you will have to wait for bishop to get pushed out.

    They’d have to make a choice summer 2016 from what I can see. No need for Ducks to choose this summer.

  25. Lowetide says:

    SVR:
    Any boxing fans around? Fights on NBC right now. First time on primetime in 30 years. Love it!

    I probably watched the last time! Seriously.

  26. Lowetide says:

    scratch:
    Mitch Moroz was just diagnosed with mono and not a new case but he has had it for 2 months. Trainers thought he needed more conditioning due to his fatigue levels not realizing there may have been a reason for his lack of energy.

    Haha. Good grief

  27. godot10 says:

    GCW_69: They may trade one if they feel they can get a missing piece to a cup. Question is, what’s the piece and do the Oilers have it?

    Replacing one with an inferior goaltender would likely cost more than just keeping both Andersen and Gibson till summer of 2016, and add the risk to next season should the one you keep get injured.

    i.e. Trading one this year likely costs more and leave one with an inferior tandem.

  28. wheatnoil says:

    Lowetide: Yes.

    I don’t believe this is true for Slepyshev. I think he has 4 years because he was drafted out of Europe.

  29. wheatnoil says:

    wheatnoil,

    Article 8.6 (d) (i) Players Drafted From a Club Outside North America:

    Notwithstanding any provision of Sections 8.6(a) or (b) to the contrary, if a Player drafted at age 18 or 19 is drafted from a club outside North America, his drafting Club shall retain the exclusive right of negotiation for his services through and including the fourth June 1 following his selection in the Entry Draft. The Club need not make a Bona Fide Offer to such Player to retain such rights.

    This implies the Oilers have 4 years after the draft to sign him, if I’m reading it right. That said, there’s every likelihood I’m missing something.

  30. doritogrande says:

    The best time to get someone who will be a #1 G is RIGHT before they prove themselves good enough to be #1. Kiprusoff, Cory Schneider and Ben Bishop are good examples of this kind of acquisition. They all performed well in small samples but didn’t patently outshine the incumbents on their previous teams. The teams that traded for them were all taking a calculated risk.

    Beware the Oilerlogic(tm) in your statement. See: Scrivens, Ben. Also Fasth, Victor.

  31. Woodguy says:

    doritogrande:
    The best time to get someone who will be a #1 G is RIGHT before they prove themselves good enough to be #1. Kiprusoff, Cory Schneider and Ben Bishop are good examples of this kind of acquisition. They all performed well in small samples but didn’t patently outshine the incumbents on their previous teams. The teams that traded for them were all taking a calculated risk.

    Beware the Oilerlogic(tm) in your statement. See: Scrivens, Ben. Also Fasth, Victor.

    I posted this in the previous thread.

    Helps to do your homework when making that bet.

    Scrivens was an ok bet, Fasth was not.:

    The other day everyone was kicking around goalie ideas.

    I’d like to belated chime in.

    There are 45 NHL goalies who have played at least 2000 minutes since the start of the 13/14 season.

    Waronice.com has a function called “adjusted save %” They adjust the raw SV% via the number of High, Medium and Low probability shots based on shot location.

    Its not perfect and not the burning bush, but I think it adds a dimension that raw SV% doesn’t.

    Here are the top 16 Goalies via Adjusted SV% from the last 2 years with minimum 2000 5v5 min played:

    Name AdSv%
    Carey.Price 94.1
    Tuukka.Rask 93.82
    Cory.Schneider 93.7
    Jonathan.Bernier 93.69
    Semyon.Varlamov 93.58
    Ben.Bishop 93.51
    Cam.Talbot 93.48
    Henrik.Lundqvist 93.43
    Anton.Khudobin 93.42
    Braden.Holtby 93.4
    Steve.Mason 93.29
    Jonathan.Quick 93.29
    Chad.Johnson 93.24
    Jonas.Hiller 93.15
    Craig.Anderson 93.13
    Bernier, Talbot and Anderson could all be available.

    I’d be fine with any of them.

    Also,

    If we did the same exercise last summer and look where Fasth and Scrivens ranks we see:

    Scrivens 20th
    Fasth 36th

    Total 54 goalies, min 1400 5v5 minutes (so Fasth would qualify) from beginning of 12/13 season to end of 13/14 season.

  32. Woodguy says:

    doritogrande:
    The best time to get someone who will be a #1 G is RIGHT before they prove themselves good enough to be #1. Kiprusoff, Cory Schneider and Ben Bishop are good examples of this kind of acquisition. They all performed well in small samples but didn’t patently outshine the incumbents on their previous teams. The teams that traded for them were all taking a calculated risk.

    Beware the Oilerlogic(tm) in your statement. See: Scrivens, Ben. Also Fasth, Victor.

    If we use the same critera for those 3 goalies mentioned we find:

    1) Schnieder

    11/12-12/13 minimum 2000min 5v5 TOI

    Schnieder was 2nd of 39 goalies in Adjusted SV% – great bet

    2) Bishop

    26th/60

    Not a great bet.

    His .913 this year is closer to his NHL career average than the .924 last year.

    3) Kipper – not enough info

  33. Henry says:

    Woodguy,

    12 of the 15 goalies listed above are Eastern. What does this mean?

  34. Alpine says:

    Woodguy,

    Huh, Steve Mason’s on that list. Funny enough.

    I’d be down with Talbot (one of the more realistic options), but I wonder if there’s a NYR effect there, like we’ve seen with LA and Boston.

  35. rickithebear says:

    Slepyshev:

    #1 pick KHL

    18 yr KHL 12:40 TOI
    goal scoring like: Semin; Kovalchuk; Ovi; Malkin; Kuznetsov; Tarasenko.

    Drafted by Oilers 2013

    19 yr season stated he wanted NHL
    13-14 10:18 TOI

    14-15: 58GM 14 EVG 1 PPG 10A EV
    SEPT
    11gm 1G 3A
    13:00+ TOI 1GM 1G 0A EV
    OCT
    13GM 2G 1A EV
    13:00+ TOI 2GM 1G 0A EV
    NOV
    9GM 1G 1A
    13:00 TOI 3GM 1G 1A E
    —————————————- he gets a TOI push
    DEC
    7GM 2G 2A +2
    JAN
    11GM 7G 2A +3
    FEB
    7GM 2G 1A -1

    REG shift games
    31gm
    13EVG 3EVA .42 EVGPG .52 EVPPG
    1 PPG 2 PPA .10 PPPPG

    His last half pace was better than Tarasnko’s
    A 27 EVG NHLE

  36. Gally says:

    Why does everyone(hyperbole) suggest we poach from teams that are up against the Cap? Up until we traded Petry for magic beans, we had like $3MM in cap space. The loss of Cap Geek hurts accuracy, but others are trying. Next year, we have 21 players either up as RFA or UFA, including guys on Two Way Contracts. For that, we have about $22M in space. Some of those guys won’t count, unless called up.

    Okay, so, of our RFA’s at the NHL level that will be expecting raises, we have Pitlick, Lander, Fraser, Yakupov, Jultz, Aulie, and Marincin who this year earned $8.05M. Some of those guys may be cut, but Lander is getting a boost from $600K, Marincin will from $730K, Schultz from $3.675M, and Yak from $925K. Sure, we may get replacement level players for the other guys, but these guys raises will more than cover that, meaning that at very least, our RFA’s will cost us about $10M of our “available” $22M.

    Now, we have $12M left. What do we need with that? Well, there’s talk of Phaneuf at $7M and hey, maybe Cam Ward at $6.3M. With Salary eaten, we’re at the cap. At the Cap, and needing to add a 2C. Roy probably won’t sign for $1M next year. If he doesn’t and we use Drai, well, with rookie bonuses, that’s like $3.75M. Which means Toronto has to retain $5M for us to take Phaneuf. Not impossible, but not likely.

    Anywho, we’re not some cap space privileged team like we were when Tambo handed the reins to MacT. We’re tight again, and hunting whales, let alone solid options at this point is going to involve buying guys out and trading Purcell for a washing machine that sometimes works in order to have the space to make room to take advantage of other teams cap problems. Yeah, other teams are in Cap Hell. We’re in, at best, Cap Purgatory and we can’t just buy our way out. MacT not listening to the reported teams asking for Ference should be a fireable offense.

    There’s a chance we can make the right moves to rectify this this summer, but history is not on MacT’s side, and he would have to be able to turn into 1984 Glen Sather overnight for us to be able to take advantage of other team’s Cap troubles at this time. I hope he does, but I’m not holding my breath.

    Cap numbers are unverified, RIP CapGeek, but come from here

  37. SwedishPoster says:

    For me Pakarinen has passed pitlick on the depth chart, adds similar physicality but with a better skillset and smarter D. Pitlick is easily the better skater but can’t stay healthy and imo shows much less offensive upside.

  38. 719 says:

    Gally,

    If we took on a contract like Phaneuf or Ward, you would have to imagine either Purcell or Nikitin were going the other way. If we were trading for Ward, I would think Scrivens would be going the other way.

    I am all in on trying to acquire Talbot, been beating that drum for awhile. Ward and Talbot may be a good enough tandem.

    If the cap is at 70 million, which is what the numbers suggest, we are at 47.5 million right now, meaning we have 22.5 million in cap space. The RFAs most likely to be re-signed will be Schultz, Yakupov, Marincin and Lander. I can’t see them eating up more than 8 million in cap space. Meaning we have more like 14.5 million in cap space, so Phaneuf, Cam Ward and a ufa like Boychuk could all be added, dumping Nikitin and Purcell in the process.

  39. Woodguy says:

    Henry:
    Woodguy,

    12 of the 15 goalies listed above are Eastern.What does this mean?

    EC has better goalies?

  40. Woodguy says:

    Alpine:
    Woodguy,

    Huh, Steve Mason’s on that list. Funny enough.

    I’d be down with Talbot (one of the more realistic options), but I wonder if there’s a NYR effect there, like we’ve seen with LA and Boston.

    Mason doesn’t surprise me on that list.

    Chad Johnson does.

    Had a very good year last year…..this year not so much.

    Khubodin’s always been a favorite of mine and he’s had an off year too.

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