OILERS AT PENGUINS, G68 2014-15

The Edmonton Oilers are absolutely in contention for No. 30 overall, due partly to the difficulty of their schedule. This is a poor roster but not close to Buffalo’s; the Sabres are likely good enough to grab 6 or 7 points now through season’s end. Edmonton? They play Pittsburgh tonight, Columbus tomorrow and Toronto on Monday. If they can lose them all in regulation, my bet is the Sabres will be within two points. This isn’t over.

NUGE AND NAZEM

I really like the idea of a 1-2 punch like RNH and Kadri. I don’t know the actual issues facing him but it seems to me it would probably be worth at least exploring the idea of acquiring the young Leaf.

PLAYER 5X5/60 5×4/60 5X5 CF % ZONE START QUAL COMP
RNH 1.73 3.30 50.4 62.4% toughest
KADRI 1.77 2.05 49.9 46.2% 4th toughest

This is a nice combination for the top two lines. A little too similar maybe but skilled and they can deliver in less than ideal circumstances. Throw in Lander plus Gordon and the Oilers weakness at center looks much better. If you’re worried about Leon, don’t. He can start at LW and by next season—when they deal Boyd Gordon at the deadline—the club has next man up. I like the idea.

GRAPHS!

Emmanuel Perry is one of the countless brilliant minds bringing the game alive using analytics and allowing us to see things in a new way. He was kind enough to supply me with a graph of Nuge and one of Kadri to show how they’re doing in possession against above and below average competition.

NUGE CAPTURE 200

This (as I understand it) shows Nuge’s peformance against above and below average competition. Nuge performs well against both but in this case quoting Emmanuel “he’s performing better in terms of S.A Rel CF% in games in which he faced a higher-than-median TOI% QoC”. Nuge is good, very good at 21. At 24? It should be grand!

KADRI CAPTUREHere’s Nazem Kadri, same discipline. Kadri is a bona fide NHL center, established. Again, no idea what the pricetag might be but it’s certainly worth a call. These two added to Lander and Gordon? Giddyup.

These things happen when teams are losing. Nikitin has to be a buy out option this summer, or at the very least someone they’ll shop to a KHL team ala Diabolical Lou. If Craig MacTavish sees him as a legit Top 4D option, we should see marked improvement in his performance in these next games. There has been no evidence so far Nikitin can help in a feature role.


Hall is back skating (this is via Jason Gregor at ON) and it appears we’ll see him for as many as 10 games before season’s end. ANY game with Taylor Hall in it is extreme entertainment, what a fantastic hockey player.

MACT’S 2014 SUMMER

It didn’t go well, ladies. Craig MacTavish had a long shopping list—Oilers’ GMs routinely face five or six significant issues each summer—and looking back there wasn’t much that got solved in a satisfactory manner.

  • A veteran top pairing defenseman. Oilers acquired Mark Fayne and NikI Nikitin. Neither has proven to be top-pairing option, although Fayne has been facing the toughest opposition all season long. A couple of Vollman Sledgehammer’s show where Fayne is being used (toughest opps and no real ZS help) and the second Vollman shows Fayne’s handling is drastic compared to his own past.

fayne vollman mar 2015

fayne vollman by year

  • A 2line C with experience and the ability to play a two-way game. MacT never really got this one covered, although Derek Roy was acquired after the season was dead to help on offense. I will say that Anton Lander gives us hope for a two-way “Reasoner type” for the future.
  • A legit two-way winger who can score 12-15 goals. I really liked the Pouliot add, for me the issue was solved here until Perron was dealt. Pouliot’s offense is marginal for Top 6F—he’s never scored 20 in a season and Perron has done it three times—but I really like Pouliot as a player.
  • Find a way to get value, or make use of, Sam Gagner. I’m satisfied with Teddy Purcell, many don’t feel the same way. He is fourth in team scoring this year and is an actual NHL player. I’ll complain about him the moment Edmonton has six better wingers.
  • Improve the bottom 6F’s. That has happened as the season wore on, Lander and Klinkhammer give the team some nice additions (to Gordon and Hendricks). I thought Pouliot would thrive in this area but that hasn’t really happened (certainly since the Perron deal). I’ll give credit here, it’s better, even if it did cost a perfectly useful offensive winger to do it.
  • Get Petry signed long term. Fail.
  • Sign Schultz but DO NOT break the bank. Credit here but it’s still too much money and of course we run the risk MacT will overpay Schultz long term this summer.

The major items (veteran top-pairing defenseman and two-way 2C) didn’t get done and that my friends had a major impact on the season. I’ll give credit for getting Pouliot and Purcell but many of the good things we can hold on to this morning (Lander’s emergence, Klefbom’s progress) are more about youngsters developing than any kind of team building by the general manager. MacT will need a far better summer this year and the list will be just as extensive:

  1. No. 1 goalie. This team needs someone who won’t kill them opening night and in the first four weeks of the season. In Jesus’ name, amen. Lordy.
  2. Top-pairing defenseman. The need that has no solution.
  3. Second-pairing defenseman. If you’re going to trade Jeff Petry and Martin Marincin isn’t part of the future, then yes, two legit defensive solutions are required in one summer. Again!
  4. 2C with two-way ability. I like Derek Roy but the more we see his work inside the defensive zone the more obvious it becomes a more capable player is required. I don’t know the sins of Kadri but he would be a terrific option for this team.
  5. Todd Nelson as coach. I know they’re going to be whale hunting all summer but Mike Babcock isn’t coming here and unless Todd McLellan shakes loose then the guy in place now is probably the better man. He’s not perfect—he needs to get with Dellow and find out what the Roy line is doing wrong—but this fellow is bringing along several kids at a good pace and that alone has enormous value. Get good players, keep good players. That’s from the Bill Torrey-Al Arbour song book and many of those good players started as New Haven Nighthawks.

fonda capture

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

This morning at 10, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Dennis King, Oilogosphere Icon. Oilers-Penguins, NFL Free Agency, Raptors.
  • Anthony Mingioni, CenterIce Philly. NFL Free Agency, Flyers season and summer.
  • Travis Yost, TSN Analytics. He’ll gush over the Buffalo Bills, I’ll ask him about fixing the Oilers this summer.
  • Jeff Krushell, Krush Performance. Blue Jays injuries, how many times can you tear your ACL and remain a high-performance athlete?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide_ on twitter. These are fabulous guests, I’m thrilled they’re joining us. Talk soon.

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258 Responses to "OILERS AT PENGUINS, G68 2014-15"

« Older Comments
  1. striker says:

    McDavid just tried on his winter gloves to see if he needs a new pair.

  2. Zelepukin says:

    GCW_69:
    Jultz on the ice for the insurance marker.Crosby schools the rookie.

    Lovely work.Your move, Buffalo.

    schooled Klef. Jultz was chaperoning Perron infront.

  3. striker says:

    Zelepukin: Jultz was chaperoning Perron infront.

    Caption reads: “Right this way mon ami, we have a beautiful table reserved for you in the slot”

  4. striker says:

    Head says yes, heart says no. Stupid heart.

  5. LMHF#1 says:

    You guys do get that if they draft McDavid, it will just be another excuse, the front office won’t change and the glaring holes in the rest of the team will remain, leading to more losing – right?

  6. Ben says:

    Butter-soft Petry destroys Bobby Ryan.

  7. slipper says:

    Ference made the pinch and Roy read it and reacted well, but he’s not a defenseman, but neither is Ference so it’s a wash.

    Bad pinch. Hopeless.

  8. Lowetide says:

    Well, Nuge is going to get 50 points this season and someone will say “about time he did it” sure as hell.

  9. Lowetide says:

    LMHF#1:
    You guys do get that if they draft McDavid, it will just be another excuse, the front office won’t change and the glaring holes in the rest of the team will remain, leading to more losing – right?

    We’re gathering nice things for the next GM. Buchberger.

  10. knighttown says:

    I know Craig’s on it but, there’s a concern. Who the fuck is matching up against the toughs next season?

    Ference and Fayne have tried it and gotten their teeth kicked in to the tune of the worst Corsi in the NHL outside of Buffalo.

    Schultz and Klefbom posted a +50 for awhile there but it was against the lowest degree of difficulty you can imagine (+60 ZS, great teammates and weak competition). Nelly has done the right thing by testing them more lately and they’ve just been getting FED.

    So Marinicin, who’s around 50 against moderate completion and…Nikitin?

    I’m supporting the Habs this spring and if that’s the defense next year I’ll extend that hiatus.

  11. striker says:

    Lowetide: We’re gathering nice things for the next GM. Buchberger.

    At trade deadline, we’ll all yell in unison, “Take ’em wide Bucky!!!!!”

  12. striker says:

    Just saw the replay on Lander’s first goal. Lander is doing the Smyth in front of the net banging away at the rebound. After the goal, he quickly fist bumps and skates the hell out of the group hug to the bench. Beautiful.

  13. striker says:

    Petry is playing #2/3 minutes in the Habs loss tonight.

    PK out in front with 25:30

    Markov and Petry tied at 23:12

  14. gogliano says:

    Lowetide:
    Well, Nuge is going to get 50 points this season and someone will say “about time he did it” sure as hell.

    In fairness, RNH was a #1 pick and we should expect as much. I get there were injuries his first season and then a strike shortened season, but 50 points wasn’t much of an ask for a player drafted in 2011.

    Don’t get me wrong, I’ll still cheer like hell when he finally hits the mark.

    p.s. Before someone looks at his historical boxcars and says “he was on pace for 50 in the strike shortened season!”, he wasn’t — 49.2 points isn’t 50.

  15. striker says:

    Toby Rider coming through for the Magnificent Bastard and the Oilers so far tonight.

  16. Oddspell says:

    gogliano,

    Wait, he got 52 points in 2011-12 and 56 in 2013-14. Is something going over my head?

  17. Gordies Elbow says:

    striker:
    Toby Rider coming through for the Magnificent Bastard and the Oilers so far tonight.

    Tobias Rieder (11) Wrist shot – ASST: Mark Arcobello (9), Sam Gagner (21)

    Hmmn, something about that stat line makes me smile.

  18. Lowetide says:

    gogliano: In fairness, RNH was a #1 pick and we should expect as much.I get there were injuries his first season and then a strike shortened season, but 50 points wasn’t much of an ask for a player drafted in 2011.

    Don’t get me wrong, I’ll still cheer like hell when he finally hits the mark.

    p.s. Before someone looks at his historical boxcars and says “he was on pace for 50 in the strike shortened season!”, he wasn’t — 49.2 points isn’t 50.

    Sign. Nuge has scored 50 points twice in his career, this will be his third time (he was injured in the shortened season). I sometimes think people write this to piss me off.

    It works!

  19. LMHF#1 says:

    Lowetide: We’re gathering nice things for the next GM. Buchberger.

    *shudder*

    And in all seriousness – I can hear the BS about a longer window already.

  20. RexLibris says:

    LMHF#1: *shudder*

    And in all seriousness – I can hear the BS about a longer window already.

    Did I hear somebody say “window”?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defenestrations_of_Prague

  21. Snowman says:

    Lowetide,

    I agree. Nothing gets me fired up more than suggesting Nuge is disappointing. It is a bizarrely popular sentiment though. Makes no sense.

  22. ashley says:

    Gordies Elbow: Tobias Rieder (11) Wrist shot – ASST: Mark Arcobello (9), Sam Gagner (21)

    Hmmn, something about that stat line makes me smile.

    Smurfs. What are those guys doing in the NHL let alone on the same line?

    We only have 1.5 NHL centers on our entire team, yet Arizona puts out 2 on one line.

  23. Ryan says:

    Lowetide: We’re gathering nice things for the next GM. Buchberger.

    You win the Internet today with that comment. 🙂

  24. Ryan says:

    Gordies Elbow: Tobias Rieder (11) Wrist shot – ASST: Mark Arcobello (9), Sam Gagner (21)

    Hmmn, something about that stat line makes me smile.

    That’s Don Maloney fu**ing with ya.

  25. Ryan says:

    Nudge and Eberle put up points and the Oilers lose. It’s like a win-win or having your cake and eating it too.

  26. admiralmark says:

    Snowman:
    Lowetide,

    I agree. Nothing gets me fired up more than suggesting Nuge is disappointing. It is a bizarrely popular sentiment though. Makes no sense.

    Everyone has an answer to the question, “What percentage of the population would you consider to be reasonably intelligent”? I for one am somewhat cynical and would say about 60-70%. 30% are out to lunch at least. But no matter what you believe.. wether it’s 1% or 40% there is a # in there. Herein lies the answer to where this absurdity originates from.

  27. justDOit says:

    Gordies Elbow: Hmmn, something about that stat line makes me smile.

    Arizona scored?

  28. striker says:

    Ryan: That’s Don Maloney fu**ing with ya.

    You might feel a slight twinge in the back of your neck. That’s Don Maloney fucking with ya. Fuck Don Maloney. Your ass goes down in the 5th.

    Don’t be like Butch Oilers, just go down and stay down. Hopefully for the last year.

  29. Adam Wu says:

    RexLibris:
    Didn’t realize the game was on.

    Checked score on TSN aaaaand….wow. They have surpassed even my expectations.

    Here is the part of this team that I just cannot wrap my head around.

    Tim Murray built what was arguably one of the worst teams in the post-lockout era.

    Don Maloney has set fire to every timber in the building since trading Dubnyk.

    Craig MacTavish built the team and hired the coach that essentially got us to where we are today which is on par with the tanking efforts of the other two.

    The Oilers actually tried to be a good team and they are failing at that to a greater extent than the other two GMs are at trying to be a bad team.

    This is the most damning thing to take from this season. It is a result that would justify termination in almost any position, regardless of experience.

    Ah, but how can one be sure that Craig McTavish actually tried to build a good team?

    Perhaps he is simply that much more skilled at tanking with plausible deniability than the other two.

    Or for that matter why assume those other two are deliberately tanking? Perhaps they are even more incompetent, and the “deliberate tank” narrative is nothing more than their way of saving face.

  30. Lois Lowe says:

    Ryan: That’s Don Maloney fu**ing with ya.

    Don Maloney is also Orange-ing for McEichel.

    I’m cheering for all the ex-Oilers this season, but Gags is exactly what Oiler fans knew he was. He isn’t helping the Coyotes win any more than he helped Edmonton. Arco is a great utility infielder with no bat; the archetypal tweener. The Rieder trade was simply inexcuseable, except if he wasn’t willing to sign with the team, which may have been the case.

  31. Dark Asia says:

    For a franchise with the history of the EDM Oilers – this pathetic cheering for another loss is so fracking sad. Honestly folks – who cares about adding another talented 18 year old at this point – it won’t make any difference. It would be nice if the mgmt of this team and it’s fans remembered why they actually care about the game and re-establish some pride. Losing is for losers and being better than anyone else at losing is shameful.

    Mr. 6 rings once said he knows a bit about winning – true – but he now knows way more about losing.

  32. OilClog says:

    Messier is the next GM, he’ll trade some pretty pieces to Gretzky in Las Vegas. Ahem.. McDavid.

  33. rickithebear says:

    Lowetide: Nuge has scored 50 points twice in his CAREER, this will be his third time (he was injured in the shortened season). I sometimes think people write this to piss me off.

    Last 14 gm 7G 7A 1PPG without Hall!

  34. OilClog says:

    rickithebear: Last 14 gm 7G 7A 1PPG without Hall!

    When Nuge goes back to his rookie scoring pace and crushes it with his defensive game on Datsukian level.. He’ll be the most fearsome third liner in the league!

  35. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Tower 7 will never score 50 points.

  36. Ryan says:

    striker: You might feel a slight twinge in the back of your neck.That’s Don Maloney fucking with ya.Fuck Don Maloney.Your ass goes down in the 5th.

    Don’t be like Butch Oilers, just go down and stay down.Hopefully for the last year.

    Nice pick up.

  37. Ryan says:

    Lois Lowe: Don Maloney is also Orange-ing for McEichel.

    I’m cheering for all the ex-Oilers this season, but Gags is exactly what Oiler fans knew he was. He isn’t helping the Coyotes win any more than he helped Edmonton. Arco is a great utility infielder with no bat; the archetypal tweener. The Rieder trade was simply inexcuseable, except if he wasn’t willing to sign with the team, which may have been the case.

    So in other words, when it comes to tanking, it’s good to fight Oilers with ex-Oilers? 🙂

    Rewind to after the lockout-shortened season, I was relatively alone on an island here screaming, “sell, sell, sell, sell!” Let’s just say for Sam Gagner that it was far from the consensus here. The famous Caro-Gagner defense was citing his offensive production being better than average for a second line centre.

  38. Ca$h-Money! says:

    Ryan: So in other words, when it comes to tanking, it’s good to fight Oilers with ex-Oilers?

    Rewind to after the lockout-shortened season, I was relatively alone on an island here screaming, “sell, sell, sell, sell!”Let’s just say for Sam Gagner that it was far from the consensus here.The famous Caro-Gagner defense was citing his offensive production being better than average for a second line centre.

    I do believe the average response was something along the lines of

    “get good players, keep good players”

  39. GCW_69 says:

    Lowetide: Sign. Nuge has scored 50 points twice in his career, this will be his third time (he was injured in the shortened season). I sometimes think people write this to piss me off.

    It works!

    I am curious. Nuge sits 28th in scoring for centres, behind players like Monahan, Hudler, and Brassard. That he is in the top 30 means he is delivering at a first line centre level, but weren’t you hoping for more than 28th by now? If he is still around 28th in his fifth year, will you still be satisfied? Sixth year?

  40. GCW_69 says:

    Ryan: So in other words, when it comes to tanking, it’s good to fight Oilers with ex-Oilers?

    Rewind to after the lockout-shortened season, I was relatively alone on an island here screaming, “sell, sell, sell, sell!”Let’s just say for Sam Gagner that it was far from the consensus here.The famous Caro-Gagner defense was citing his offensive production being better than average for a second line centre.

    I was on the same island. We knew by then Gagner didn’t have the two way game the Oilers needed. The eight point night gave Gagner some cache. Kulikov was not getting a lot of love from Talon at the time. I wanted the Oilers to trade Gagner for Kulikov.

  41. GCW_69 says:

    Ca$h-Money!: I do believe the average response was something along the lines of

    “get good players, keep good players”

    I hate that quote. There is nothing wrong with trading good players for other good players that fit an area of need. Sure, the Oilers don’t do it well, but other teams do and there is no reason the Oilers couldn’t if they had a different management team.

    The more appropriate quote for the Oilers would be, “stop trading actual NHL players for magic beans and fourth liners”

  42. Kmart99 says:

    GCW_69: I am curious.Nuge sits 28th in scoring for centres, behind players like Monahan, Hudler, and Brassard.That he is in the top 30 means he is delivering at a first line centre level, but weren’t you hoping for more than 28th by now?If he is still around 28th in his fifth year, will you still be satisfied?Sixth year?

    I’d think Top 16 in Centre scoring isn’t asking too much. That puts him in the ‘playoffs’ of scoring centers. I don’t think he’s been disappointing, but he hasn’t been an offensive world beater either. 65-70pts/season is a fair expectation. His defensive prowess makes up for his lack in offense to an extent.

  43. Snowman says:

    GCW_69: I am curious.Nuge sits 28th in scoring for centres, behind players like Monahan, Hudler, and Brassard.That he is in the top 30 means he is delivering at a first line centre level, but weren’t you hoping for more than 28th by now?If he is still around 28th in his fifth year, will you still be satisfied?Sixth year?

    If you look at his ev points/60 he’s top 15 centers who face top competition in the league. Basically of all the people who play the other top centers at ev strength he is in the top half. Not bad for 21.

  44. Bank Shot says:

    Snowman: If you look at his ev points/60 he’s top 15 centers who face top competition in the league. Basically of all the people who play the other top centers at ev strength he is in the top half. Not bad for 21.

    Yeah, but there is the 4 years in the NHL offensive rule of thumb.

    That rule of thumb suggests that most scoring forwards reach their offensive peak by their fourth NHL season.

    Which means RNH may have already hit his scoring peak of around 55 points per season, regardless of the fact that he is only 21.

    It holds true with most players one can look at including guys like Datsyuk and Zetterberg.

    Sedins are an exception but they were blocked on the depth chart. RNH certainly can’t get anymore icetime than he already has.

    I’m not suggest moving RNH for picks or anything, but when we look for reasons why the team is still in 29th after 10 years of rebuild it isn’t just Ference, Schultz, Yakupov and the goaltending holding the OIlers back. Their best players generally aren’t as good as others team’s best players to boot.

  45. Snowman says:

    Bank Shot,

    Does that rule of thumb apply when you play on a terrible team with no d-men to help move the puck and a terrible powerplay? The kid does basically all the heavy lifting on his own.

    When the powerplay picks up and we get some real d-men watch his box cars race.

  46. Bank Shot says:

    Snowman:
    Bank Shot,

    Does that rule of thumb apply when you play on a terrible team with no d-men to help move the puck and a terrible powerplay? The kid does basically all the heavy lifting on his own.

    When the powerplay picks up and we get some real d-men watch his box cars race.

    I think generally the best players score regardless of the circumstances. His line mate Hall put up 80 points last year in the same situation.

    There are always exceptions, and one hopes Nuge falls into such a category, but if three years from now he is still floating around in the 50 point range we shouldn’t be all that surprised.

  47. GCW_69 says:

    Snowman: If you look at his ev points/60 he’s top 15 centers who face top competition in the league. Basically of all the people who play the other top centers at ev strength he is in the top half. Not bad for 21.

    The game isn’t just played at even strength though. Top centres also get top PP time.

    If Nuge ends up being a 70 point plus centre, then I think that is really really good for Edmonton. If he ends up being a 55 point centre, then I think its really bad as the point of tanking was to acquire elite talent and 55 points isn’t elite when you are talking about a first line centre, regardless of his two way game

  48. GCW_69 says:

    Bank Shot: His line mate Hall put up 80 points last year in the same situation.

    That’s the kicker, isn’t? Hall kinda sets the benchmark for offensive production for Nuge and Yak. Hall plays with the same scrubs, so that’s not an excuse.

  49. Woodguy says:

    Bank Shot: Yeah, but there is the 4 years in the NHL offensive rule of thumb.

    That rule of thumb suggests that most scoring forwards reach their offensive peak by their fourth NHL season.

    Which means RNH may have already hit his scoring peak of around 55 points per season, regardless of the fact that he is only 21.

    It holds true with most players one can look at including guys like Datsyuk and Zetterberg.

    Sedins are an exception but they were blocked on the depth chart. RNH certainly can’t get anymore icetime than he already has.

    I’m not suggest moving RNH for picks or anything, but when we look for reasons why the team is still in 29th after 10 years of rebuild it isn’t just Ference, Schultz, Yakupov and the goaltending holding the OIlers back. Their best players generally aren’t as good as others team’s best players to boot.

    What an absolute crock of shit.

    “Our 21 year old is top 15 for C’s who play the tough minutes”

    “Yeah but what about this incredibly arbitrary line in peak scoring that is correlated to players going from soft minutes to hard minutes and watching their scoring drap”

  50. G Money says:

    Bank Shot: It holds true with most players one can look at including guys like Datsyuk and Zetterberg.

    No.

    Datsyuk didn’t even play in the NHL until he was 23 years old.

    He did not match Nuge’s rookie scoring until he was 24 years old.

    He did not hit elite scoring levels until he was 25 years old.

    He did not reach his peak scoring rate until he was 26 years old.

    For a lot of reasons, style most especially, Datsyuk is a terrific comparison for Nuge. He’s been my aspirational expectation for Nuge since he was a rookie.

    If Nuge does peak as a 55-pt C, then we can all be disappointed.

    I fully expect Nuge is going to be a 1ppg 200-ft player for most of his career.

    Comparing Nuge to Hall and Eberle is fruitless, neither of those other two play as mature and as effective a 200 ft game as Nuge already plays, and he’s younger than either.

  51. G Money says:

    (Note: Zetterberg also did not start in the NHL until he was 22, and did not hit elite scoring levels until 24).

    Using those two as comparables is as stupid as complaining that Nuge “will be lucky to hit 50 pts” when he’s already done it twice in his career, once in just 62 games as a rookie.

  52. godot10 says:

    GCW_69: I am curious.Nuge sits 28th in scoring for centres, behind players like Monahan, Hudler, and Brassard.That he is in the top 30 means he is delivering at a first line centre level, but weren’t you hoping for more than 28th by now?If he is still around 28th in his fifth year, will you still be satisfied?Sixth year?

    Nugent-Hopkins points are depressed because of Eakins’ absolutely horrid powerplay. And also, Nugent-Hopkins is being overplayed, because of MacT’s horrid roster construction. He plays too many minutes, which detracts from his ability to generate offense. He should be playing three-to-five minutes a game less to maximize his points per game.

  53. Bank Shot says:

    Woodguy: What an absolute crock of shit.

    “Our 21year old is top 15 for C’s who play the tough minutes”

    “Yeah but what about this incredibly arbitrary line in peak scoring that is correlated to players going from soft minutes to hard minutes and watching their scoring drap”

    You are the one citing arbitrary stats.

    Top 15 for tough minute PPG/60?

    Sounds like a stat that is framed to paint RNH in the best light possible. Who decided where the “tough minute” line was? There really isn’t any kind of defining line between tough and not tough minutes so it had to be arbitrary.

    If you take centers that have played 40+ Games this season at Behindthenet, Nuge sits in the 52nd spot with a scoring rate of 1.84. That’s a pretty normal scoring rate for Hopkins. He’s also number one in ES icetime.

    His ES scoring rates are probably what they will be going forward minus outlier years.

    RNH’s PP p/60 is well off this year, but even if it bounces back to career norms (Outside his fluke rookie season) we are only looking at another 5-10 additional PP points over a season.

    Where do you think a big bump in scoring is going to come from? The kid is already getting maximum icetime and his scoring rates are being fairly well established.

  54. Bank Shot says:

    G Money:
    (Note: Zetterberg also did not start in the NHL until he was 22, and did not hit elite scoring levels until 24).

    Using those two as comparables is as stupid as complaining that Nuge “will be lucky to hit 50 pts” when he’s already done it twice in his career, once in just 62 games as a rookie.

    I was talking seasons in the NHL, not age.

    Most forwards hit their scoring peaks within 4 NHL seasons. There are exceptions of course, but not the norm by any means.

  55. GCW_69 says:

    godot10: He should be playing three-to-five minutes a game less to maximize his points per game.

    On what study are you basing this?

  56. GCW_69 says:

    godot10: Nugent-Hopkins points are depressed because of Eakins’ absolutely horrid powerplay.And also, Nugent-Hopkins is being overplayed, because of MacT’s horrid roster construction.He plays too many minutes, which detracts from his ability to generate offense.He should be playing three-to-five minutes a game less to maximize his points per game.

    Also, I understand the Eakins effect may have brought his totals down, but that wasn’t my question. My question was, if he is still running in, say, 25-30th in total scoring for centres next year or the year after that, would LT (or others) be satisfied?

  57. G Money says:

    GCW_69: On what study are you basing this?

    I don’t know if there is a study, but I don’t think it is unreasonable to conclude that a 21 yo leading all NHL forwards in ice time is likely a bad thing for that forwards overall production.

    Supporting that idea is the players own words regarding fatigue and ice time.

    Small sample data supporting that conclusion is that since ice time has dropped over the last 15 games or so, the scoring rate has picked up quite significantly (>1 ppg).

  58. Woodguy says:

    Bank Shot,

    Where do you think a big bump in scoring is going to come from? The kid is already getting maximum icetime and his scoring rates are being fairly well established.

    Having Actual NHL Dmen on the ice with him.

    The OIler’s Dcorps is the main reason why they don’t score as much 5v5 as the team did when MacT coached.

    They don’t spend nearly enough time in the ozone and too much time in the Dzone.

    Also,

    Age is far, far, far, far more critical in projecting the future than NHL seasons played.

    Its not close.

    Its why you are way off on Nuge.

    Most players hit the NHL at 20-21 and get the soft minutes for their first 3 years then move up to harder minutes.

    It impacts their offence a ton, which is a significant factor why on a broad scale scoring peaks at 24-25.

    Its not that they players get worse (although aging starts to be a hindrance,not a help) its that they are playing the tougher players in the NHL.

    Look at Getzlaf and Perry.

    In 2011/2012 they were moved from soft minutes to Kopitar/RNH type minutes and their offence suffered.

    Its rebounded as they got better at playing against the best, but it still impacts production significantly.

    Getzlaf and Perry were moved to tougher minutes at their 26 year old years.

    RNH was moved to those minutes in his 19 year old year.

    Because Oilers.

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