RYAN HAMILTON ON WAIVERS, ANDREW MILLER GETS EXTENDED LOOK

The Edmonton Oilers placed Ryan Hamilton on waivers this morning and he’ll be sent back to the Barons if and when he clears tomorrow morning. It’s likely he’ll clear and with that a trade (Andrew Miller for Hamilton) will have occurred. In a small window, Miller looks to be the better man based on superior foot speed (he can scoot). Hamilton has a lot of things that make him attractive but a lumbering skater cannot survive in today’s NHL (especially a forward). Miller is No. 13 on the list of prospects who have been employed by both Edmonton and OKC this season (there are 15 players but Keith Aulie and Richard Bachman are not considered prospects using the rules set down by this blog) and he might be able to carve out a role in the future. Call him Arco 2.0 and let’s see where this thing goes.

There isn’t much in Oklahoma territory we haven’t seen but there are kids down there working hard and hoping for their chance in the show. If we have a look at the current roster, add in possible signings from the graduation juniors, colleges and Euro’s, what kind of a lineup could we make for next season in Bakersfield? A pretty damn good one, actually.

  • Line 1: Ryan Hamilton—Leon Draisaitl—Andrew Miller. The big German gets two experienced wingers and should be able to make hay. I expect Draisaitl to be in the NHL for good by Christmas (that’s a lie, I expect him to make the Oilers in TC) so this will be a short-term trio.
  • Line 2: Anton Slepyshev—Bogdan Yakimov—Iiro Pakarinen. Yakimov’s last 10 games (5-4-9) suggest he may be able to handle the load next season and Slepyshev is probably the best winger prospect as soon as he signs. If he isn’t, that title belongs to Pakarinen who will probably make a major push for NHL employment next season.
  • Line 3: Josh Winquist—Jujhar Khaira—Kyle Platzer.  I picked Winquist to get an Oilers contract over Curtis Hamilton, your mileage may vary. I don’t think Khaira has the offense to roll with these two but I like his grit and two-way reputation. I’m genuinely intrigued by Platzer who really had a strong OHL season.
  • Line 4: Mitch Moroz—Travis Ewanyk—Greg Chase. This line might start every shift in the penalty box but if they don’t fight each other it should be considered a victory. I’ll say this: If they played the entire season in Bakersfield and had success, I wouldn’t put it past MacT to call the whole damn bunch up ala the Bulldog line of Riesen—Swanson—Cleary circa 2000 fall.
  • Line 5: Kale Kessy/Curtis Hamilton—Marco Roy—Jackson Houck: The extra forwards, these fellows would jump between the ECHL and Bakersfield and be forced to move their way up the roster. The Jones’ boys, John McCarron, Roman Horak, Matt Fraser, Kellen Lain and Dragan Umicevic may also be involved here.
  • Defense 1: Darnell Nurse—Brandon Davidson: This could be a fun pairing while it lasts, I expect Nurse to be in the NHL by Valentine’s Day (that’s a lie, I expect he’ll make the Oilers in the fall). This is a classic pairing, Oilers may prefer a little more chaos (Hunt, Oesterle) for Nurse.
  • Defense 2: Jordan Oesterle—Dillon Simpson: This pairing began 2014-15 together but there was too much chaos. A year’s experience may make a perfect fit for two players Edmonton sees as possible solutions at the NHL level in the future.
  • Defense 3: Joey Laleggia—David Musil. Joey Legs may take some time to adjust and Musil is an effective defensive player. I like this tandem to take minutes away from the other pairings as the season wears along and do wonder if Laleggia could pass Hunt as the 1PP option before season’s end.
  • Defense 4: Ben Betker—Martin Gernat/CJ Ludwig/Brad Hunt. The big WHL kid is going to get signed and he’ll play with a smoother puck handler. I’ve chosen Gernat but Brad Hunt could absolutely return and would play much higher on the depth chart.
  • Goalies: Laurent Brossoit plus ? and the Mysterians. NO idea where they’re going here, will guess Edmonton signs a European free agent or Matt O’Connor. Don’t count out Richard Bachman but Brossoit will be the starter.

This assumes that men like Anton Lander, Martin Marincin and Tyler Pitlick are either with the Oilers and in another organization. Barons play today (3 our time) I’ll provide updates in the comments section.

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169 Responses to "RYAN HAMILTON ON WAIVERS, ANDREW MILLER GETS EXTENDED LOOK"

  1. PerryK says:

    Hamilton over Winquist. Clearly better as future Hendricks replacement, don’t you think?

  2. Lowetide says:

    PerryK:
    Hamilton over Winquist. Clearly better as future Hendricks replacement, don’t you think?

    If Hamilton played that kind of physical game he’d have been called up by now imo. Strome scores. Future Oiler

  3. maxwell_mischief says:

    wait? Dragan? Is that a joke?

  4. pocession charge says:

    I’m thinking that Kale Kessy is ahead of Mitch Moroz on the coke machine depth chart. Kessy is a better skater and has shown mildly more offensive ability. I hope that Moroz can elevate his game next season but I would bet on it.

  5. Woodguy says:

    Dragan Umicevic may also be involved here.

    I’m going to admit I had to google him.

    Nice one.

  6. maxwell_mischief says:

    Dragan UMI-EFFIN-CEVIC?!?

  7. maxwell_mischief says:

    STILL EXISTS???

  8. pocession charge says:

    Lowetide: IfHamilton played that kind of physical game he’d have been called up by now imo. Strome scores. Future Oiler

    SSM sure looks like a championship team. They are absolutely steamrolling teams heading into the playoffs. They have an amazing group of forwards and defencemen. Their additions have all been very effective — especially Nick Ritchie who is on fire at the moment. My guess is that they are dying for a rematch with Erie to redeem themselves for last year’s disappointing performance.

  9. Woodguy says:

    A Mike Babcock quote to support LT’s “no grading a draft until 5 years have elapsed”

    Mike Babcock knows as well as anyone the value of patience with developing young players.

    “Doesn’t matter how good you are, it takes a long time to become what you’re projected to be,” Babcock said, asked about how Victor Hedman put all of the elements of his game together last season, his fifth year in the league.

    “I think that’s a message for all of us. Sometimes we get a little impatient with our kids. Unless you’re a super-superstar, it takes you a while in this league to be good. Just goes to show you how tough the league is. Obviously Hedman is a good player.”

    Source: Smith/ Times

    http://www.todaysslapshot.com/nichols-notes-2/nichols-notes-talbot-chose-rangers-over-flyers/

  10. Pouzar says:

    Jezzuz what a wrister by Strome. 2 goals now.

    Oilers are going to get a beauty drafting in the 4-5 spot

  11. rickithebear says:

    13-14 Subway series:
    XXX-Khaira-Chase 1GM
    Chase 2G 0A
    Khaira 0G 2A

  12. Lowetide says:

    Pouzar:
    Jezzuz what a wrister by Strome. 2 goals now.

    Oilers are going to get a beauty drafting in the 4-5 spot

    Crouse is good you’re right. 🙂

  13. Pouzar says:

    Lowetide: Crouse is good you’re right.

    Don’t joke about that!

  14. Lowetide says:

    Pouzar: Don’t joke about that!

    Haha!

  15. Lowetide says:

    Nurse with an assist in the final game of the season, he’s at 36GP, 10-23-33 +18 on the season.

  16. Pouzar says:

    Erie imploding here.

  17. Pouzar says:

    And there’s the hatty for Strome.

    And Shannon just called him a Top 3 guy and maybe a future Oiler.

  18. sliderule says:

    Woodguy,

    Lt is right to say that five years is the minimum to get a final grade.

    But just like in school when you are getting F’s in your mid terms someone has to take you by the ear and shake you up.Otherwise you might just carry on with your current work ethic.

    The oilers drafting organization needs a shake up.

  19. Rondo says:

    Leading scorer OHL Dylan Strome

  20. Lowetide says:

    sliderule:
    Woodguy,

    Lt is right to say that five years is the minimum to get a final grade.

    But just like in school when you are getting F’s in your mid terms someone has to take you by the ear and shake you up.Otherwise you might just carry on with your current work ethic.

    The oilers drafting organization needs a shake up.

    Oilers scouts GOT a shakeup in front of the 2008 draft. I think they absolutely need to tighten it more (stop taking kids from the BCJHL!) but it is improved and imo several already drafted kids will have careers.

  21. Pouzar says:

    I have no idea who I want. Lets just win some games, draft 5th and take who’s left. Deal? Deal.

  22. Lowetide says:

    (LW-C-RW):
    Winchester-Williams-Stretch
    K. Jones-C. Jones-Ford
    Moroz-Ewanyk-Winquist

    Hunt-Davidson
    Simpson-Musil
    Ludwig-Oesterle

    Brossoit

    Those are the only players dressed.

  23. sliderule says:

    Lowetide,

    I don’t know about before 2008 but I know they have added some new scouts in past few years.

    I have prepared a little report card on second and later drafting from 2008 to 2013.i should have left out 2013 but I was half way through before I noticed hardly anyone is playing or contributing but it doesn’t affect the overall results.

    I didn’t count games I just counted points.The teams that get points from these players are getting results that can be used now not in future.Like I have said it just a report card.

    1. Isles ..417 pts
    2.

  24. sliderule says:

    Sorry my I pad jumped the gun

    Isles ..417 pts
    Press.. 400 pts
    Abs..397 pts
    Hawks ..395 pts
    Rangers..347pts

    Bottom five
    Oil 63 pts
    Coyotes. 61pts
    Flyers 59 pts
    Bruins 47pts
    Canucks 29pts
    Pens 7 pts.

    Like I said it just a report card but the oil are near the bottom of the class.
    Oh the class average was 196 pts.

  25. leadfarmer says:

    I went to the WIld Blues game yesterday. Man Dubnyk looks good. Turned out just like LT and I thought he would. Great lateral movement for a big man, tracks the puck well, is in good position. They spent the first 10 minutes of wormup everyone only shooting at his glove side. He looks like he put in a lot of work in the offseason and is in great shape.

    St.Louis on the other hand, I think they are the new San Jose. Great regular season team, but I dont think they will make it far in the playoffs.

  26. rickithebear says:

    Last 53gm:
    Marner: 5’11” 167lb .66 translation
    53gm 43G 78A 121P +39
    80gm 43G 78A 121P age NHLE

    Mcdavid: 6’1″187lb .58 Translation
    47gm 44G 76A 120P +60
    80gm 43G 75A 118P age NHLE

    Eichel: 6’2″193lb .53 translation
    36gm 24G 42A NCAA
    36gm 34G 59A CHL
    80gm 39G 70A 109P age NHLE

    Strome: 6’3″ 187lb .62 Translation
    53GM 33G 61A 94P +25
    80gm 31G 57A 88P age NHLE

  27. VanOil says:

    Today I am leaning more towards Hanifin-Zacha for the Oilers 1st round selections over Strome-Killington. This is subject to change. Past form suggest a forward-defender split by the Oilers.

    In the second round I predict (and am not displeased with) second generation Oilers such as Jake Debrusk and Adam Musil. Jake for his scoring, Adam for his smarts.

  28. Pouzar says:

    Williams with a blast on the PP…he can sure run a PP from the point

  29. speeds says:

    rickithebear,

    does that include Strome’s 5 pts today?

  30. Lowetide says:

    Williams (Ford, Winquist)

  31. speeds says:

    He just picked up another point, make that 6 points today!

  32. Pouzar says:

    Strome cannot be stopped.

  33. jake70 says:

    Ha….7-7 now, run and gun , love it.

  34. rickithebear says:

    Pouzar: I have no idea who I want. Lets just WIN some games, draft 5th and take who’s left. Deal? Deal.

    Yes Please!

  35. rickithebear says:

    Max Domi killing the play cost Marner the scoring title.

  36. oliveoilers says:

    leadfarmer:
    I went to the WIld Blues game yesterday.Man Dubnyk looks good.Turned out just like LT and I thought he would.Great lateral movement for a big man, tracks the puck well, is in good position.They spent the first 10 minutes of wormup everyone only shooting at his glove side.He looks like he put in a lot of work in the offseason and is in great shape.

    St.Louis on the other hand, I think they are the new San Jose.Great regular season team, but I dont think they will make it far in the playoffs.

    Do you think there is anything to this ‘lighting’ thing in Rexall? Steve Mason refuses to play here and he said Columbus was similar. Might explain the ‘lost’ pucks.

    Kind of related, but if you ever happen to catch a cricket match (probably not, lol) then you’ll notice that behind the batsman and the bowler is a white screen on the perimeter. This is because the wicket-keeper (back-stop) used to get regularly beaned in the head because the batsman would lose the ball and so would he!

    Obviously, don’t ever buy tickets behind one of these screens, no matter how cheap they are.

  37. Zack says:

    @TSNBobMcKenzie: Dylan Strome wins OHL scoring title with 4 pts today, a period to go: Strome 44G-83A-127P in 68GP. Marner 44G-82A-126P in 63GP.

    Marner with five less games and still finishes pretty close to Strome, still has some support but no McDavid.

    At this point, where ever the Oilers finish either a

    1. McDavid
    2. Eichel
    3/4/5. Marner/Hanifin/Strome

    Not bad, not bad at all.

  38. VanOil says:

    Looking past next season in which the Oilers will miss the playoffs due to a woeful defense, which I am required to do for mental health reasons. The Oilers Center position begins to look interesting, even before this years draft.

    The Oilers down the middle in 2016 could be RNH-Draisaitl-Yakimov-Lander. That is very young but should they all live up to there potential, wow. Big Yakimov seems to be the biggest question mark, can he find enough offense and skate well enough? Draisaitl should be able to shoulder the load by then, Nuge and Lander can shoulder the load now.

    Still extending Gordon a year or 2 to over ripen this group and allow for some more depth to develop would be good.

  39. fifthcartel says:

    I’m finally accepting that they’re going to finish with the 3rd/4th pick, and they’ll get a really good player but I have no clue who they’ll pick out of Hanifin/Strome/Marner.

    I think they go C or D, but even then I can’t tell who they’ll go for.

  40. leadfarmer says:

    oliveoilers,

    I think that he just had his first kid, was a little distracted, and a little tired. Wasn’t in as good of shape as he is now. Things started of bad and then he lost his confidence.

    I wonder what kind of contract he gets in the offseason. I think they sign him long term. They love him here.

  41. leadfarmer says:

    fifthcartel,

    Thats a really tough choice. Now they look very even. Five years from now, probably not so even. People will not remember how close those 3 are.

  42. pocession charge says:

    fifthcartel:
    I’m finally accepting that they’re going to finish with the 3rd/4th pick, and they’ll get a really good player but I have no clue who they’ll pick out of Hanifin/Strome/Marner.

    It’s likely the order in which you wrote it: Hanifin, Strome, Marner. All are fantastic looking prospects, none of which will (hopefully) be rushed to the NHL next year.

  43. leadfarmer says:

    I really wish the NHL would move from the 2 point system for wins to the 3 point system with a win in regulation or OT getting 3 points. Shootout win 2 points, Shootout loss 1 point. Loss 0 points. The current system unfortunately does not distinguish between regulation wins and shootout wins, which the first should reward more points than the latter. But the big reason I like the switch is the current system doesn’t have much of reward for taking risks in overtime to settle the game. Teams try to win but if the opportunity doesn’t present itself they are happy to go to a shootout. In the current system, given that the average team wins 50% of the shootouts and loses 50%, over the long run the team will avg 1.5 out of every 2 available points every time they go to a shootout. That means just by going to a shootout you will get 75% of the available points of a regulation win, not bad considering that in reality you actually tied.

    Now if you change the system to the above system, that seriously changes the equation. Teams in overtime realize that they have a 50% chance of walking away with only one out of the three available points which would be unacceptable, and if they win the shootout they get two out of the three available points. In the long run that means the average team will only get 1.5 out of three available points when the game goes to a shootout. This will push teams into taking chances in overtime to win the game, and a very entertaining overtime at that.

  44. wheatnoil says:

    In honor of Strome-Marner battle for OHL scoring race, I just did a flash poll of 8 NHL scouts to see who they have rated higher right now:— Bob McKenzie (@TSNBobMcKenzie) March 22, 2015

    Four scouts took Strome. Four scouts took Marner. So, that settles that. Well, not really.— Bob McKenzie (@TSNBobMcKenzie) March 22, 2015

    With Provorov challenging Hanifan for top D-man, this is going to be a fun draft! 3 through 6 is wide open!

  45. Woodguy says:

    Zack:
    @TSNBobMcKenzie: Dylan Strome wins OHL scoring title with 4 pts today, a period to go: Strome 44G-83A-127P in 68GP. Marner 44G-82A-126P in 63GP.

    Marner with five less games and still finishes pretty close to Strome, still has some support but no McDavid.

    At this point, where ever the Oilers finish either a

    1. McDavid
    2. Eichel
    3/4/5. Marner/Hanifin/Strome

    Not bad, not bad at all.

    Yeah, the top 2 are unreal, but the next 3 look to be very, very good NHLers.

    Oilers can’t miss if they have their thinking toques on.

  46. oliveoilers says:

    leadfarmer: I think that he just had his first kid, was a little distracted, and a little tired. Wasn’t in as good of shape as he is now. Things started of bad and then he lost his confidence.

    Now THAT I can sympathise with! My daughter was born in 2004, crickets until 2012 when my first son was born, then my second was born in 2014, 19 months apart. The time in between lulled us into forgetting those sleepless nights. What fools we were!

    Would have been funny if he’d claimed paternity leave!

  47. oliveoilers says:

    Woodguy: Oilers can’t miss

    Usually it’s me that puts the ‘moron’ in oxymoron.

  48. Woodguy says:

    Stephen Burtch ‏@SteveBurtch 1m1 minute ago

    So this year Strome without McDavid played 21 gp, had 18 goals and 35 pts. That’s 0.86 goals per game and 1.67 pts per game.

    That pro-rates to a 57 goal, 110 point season in 66 gp without McDavid.

    That’s one hell of a player that is going to go 4th or 5th.

  49. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: Yeah, the top 2 are unreal, but the next 3 look to be very, very good NHLers.

    Oilers can’t miss if they have their thinking toques on.

    With the fourth selection in the 2015 NHL Entry Draft, the Edmonton Oilers select, from the BCJHL’s Prince George Spruce Kings……”

  50. wheatnoil says:

    Woodguy: Oilers can’t miss if they have their thinking toques on.

    No no no! They need to leave the thinking toques at home! Thinking Toques make them go into Smartest Men In the Room Time (SMIRT).

  51. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide,

    And the Edmonton Oilers trade their 3rd overall pick for a player they really liked in his draft year 7 years ago, but haven’t seen him play since.

  52. wheatnoil says:

    Lowetide: Crouse is good you’re right.

    Lowetide: With the fourth selection in the 2015 NHL Entry Draft, the Edmonton Oilers select, from the BCJHL’s Prince George Spruce Kings……”

    Ha! Now you’re just trolling your own blog!

  53. Melman says:

    Q: Can someone give some insight as to how the waiving of Hamilton gets decided as between MacT and Nelson? Does Nelson get any input on this? I assume this varies from org to org, but I’m curious whether it’s Nelly saying I’d rather run Miller the rest of the year, or if it’s MacT making the call based on having seen enough of Hamilton to know what he is and deciding to let Miller settle in and run for 10 games.

  54. Rondo says:

    Woodguy:
    Stephen Burtch ‏@SteveBurtch1m1 minute ago


    So this year Strome without McDavid played 21 gp, had 18 goals and 35 pts.That’s 0.86 goals per game and 1.67 pts per game.

    That pro-rates to a 57 goal, 110 point season in 66 gp without McDavid.

    That’s one hell of a player that is going to go 4th or 5th.

    For what it is worth Kyle Woodlief likes Leon D over Strome

  55. Lowetide says:

    wheatnoil:
    Ha! Now you’re just trolling your own blog!

    I do it often. 🙂

  56. Woodguy says:

    Rondo: For what it is worth Kyle Woodlief likes Leon D over Strome

    I think that speaks to Leon’s ability.

    Strome’s numbers without McDavid in the line up are almost identical to Stamkos’ his draft year.

    Strome w/o McDavid .86g/gm
    Stamkos .95g/gm

    Strome w/o McDavid .81a/gm
    Stamkos .77a/gm

    This draft is loaded.

  57. Younger Oil says:

    Woodguy,

    Just curious, out of Strome, Marner, and Hanifan, who would you want the Oilers to draft 3rd Overall at the moment?

    I seem to be changing my mind every day, no matter what it seems like we are going to get one hell of a player.

  58. thatoneguy says:

    Based on my look into the Detroit farm system the magic numbers seem to be 100 and 200 AHL games played. 100 games before being an NHL regular should be considered and if by 200 games the player has not established himself as an NHLer than its unlikely they ever will be and they should be flushed from the system to make room for fresh prospects. A player like Curtis Hamilton is no where close to being an NHL player and will be over the 200 game mark after this year.

  59. Zack says:

    Younger Oil:
    Woodguy,

    Just curious, out of Strome, Marner, and Hanifan, who would you want the Oilers to draft 3rd Overall at the moment?

    I seem to be changing my mind every day, no matter what it seems like we are going to get one hell of a player.

    Centers are always a premium but if if was up to me, not sure what Woodguy would do but from what I’ve read and seen I’d probably go with Marner. Sounds like he’s already quite the two way player, has some wheels and you can’t deny his offensive ability.

    Send him back to Junior for another year he could probably put on 10-15lbs, refine his game a little more and no need to rush him or any of the other potential drafted kids.

  60. godot10 says:

    #JustSayNoah

  61. Kmart99 says:

    G Money,

    My guess is the you’ll still find shot quality and quantity correlate. Maybe not at a .92 rate, but very closely.

    What I’d like to pull from the data are the results for teams with really high and low PDO.

    Are there teams that have produced a high volume of quality shots/chances for long periods of time while simultaneously producing a low quantity of shots overall..?… Or vise versa? High volume of shots overall but very few high quality chances for a long period of time…

    I’m curious, and you sir have the answers!

    It would be nice to have some scoring chance data(high volume) that I trusted to be accurate.

    I like Staples idea but I really don’t know about his standards for scoring chances. Why doesn’t he have chance quality split up in to 2-3 categories? Mediocre scoring chance, high, and extremely high.

    Since he’s only tracking the oilers, his data doesn’t allow for me to compare across the league.

    I’ve also read so many articles that seem to strongly support the idea that higher shot shares will come with a proportionately high scoring chance share( I’m still skeptical). Yet the majority of statfolk have always supported SAT data as being directly linked to chance data.

    I’ve also read tons of articles that suggest systems don’t affect sv%, which is an insane claim. Yet I’ve found nothing to support the opposite? How is this possible?

    If a team was playing a 5-0-0 setup and never left the o-z except to take a face off, I’m pretty sure that system would affect a goalie’s sv%. So it isn’t much of a stretch to suggest that differing systems will affect sv%s is it?

    Anyways… GMoney, you are gentleman and a scholar.

  62. Rondo says:

    Oilers need D or C. If Marner turns into a first line winger would you want him?

  63. Kmart99 says:

    Between Connor, Jack, Noah, Mitch, and Dylan…. There’s no way you can lose.

  64. Lowetide says:

    Rondo:
    Oilers need D or C. If Marner turns into a first line wingerwould you want him?

    I think Marner is the third best player in the draft. I would take him and be thrilled that my top six some time in the future might include Nuge, Leon, Hall, Yak, Eberle and Marner.

  65. Rondo says:

    Lowetide,

    If i knew Marner was going to be a centre in the NHL I would take him over Strome. I’m still thinking Hanifin is the 3rd best player in the draft.

  66. Kmart99 says:

    Even without Connor or Jack, Nuge/Draisaitl could one day be a pretty damn good duo.

  67. thejonrmcleod says:

    godot10:
    #JustSayNoah

    Does this mean yes or no to Noah?

  68. leadfarmer says:

    The Oilers have been waiting for a center with size for a long time, and now they get a chance to pick one in back to back years. I think thats who they like. I’m thinking they see it Strome, then Hanifin (they don’t like college D), Marner (small player). Although I would go with Hanifin.

  69. thejonrmcleod says:

    If it’s either Strome or Hanifin, either option is appealing: (1) a duo of Nurse and Hanifin for years to come or (2) strength down the middle with RNH, Draisaitl, and Strome.

  70. G Money says:

    I’ve been saying this ever since the tank job officially started (Oct 1?).

    I’m not fretting over where we finish.

    If we can’t finish 30th and guarantee McEichel, all that matters is to finish no higher than 27th. That guarantees a top 5 pick, and one of McEichel/Hanifin/Marner/Strome.

    It doesn’t matter who we pick, we get an outstanding top rank likely future elite NHL player.

    Unless the Oilers put on their Thinking Toques, go into Smartest Men in the Room Today (SMRT) mode, and pick Lawson Crouse.

  71. G Money says:

    Kmart99,

    Thanks! Yes, I think you are correct on all counts. I don’t expect to see a huge delta when accounting for scoring chance. But hoping to see an effect of some kind.

    For sure, high/low PDO teams would be a place to look. If PDO is fully regressing, there will be little to no change. But if there is an expected change, it means there is non-regressing component to PDO (as many have surmised), and we’d actually have some numeric evidence of same.

  72. Gordies Elbow says:

    Wow, 2015 is a crazy draft.

    Today, I’d go:
    3 (Edm) Noah Hanifin
    24 (Pitt) Paul Bittner or Jordan Greenway

    With #33, do you take a goalie? Mackenzie Blackwood? Or a centre, like #32 ranked Adam Musil?

  73. gr8one says:

    Kmart99:
    Between Connor, Jack, Noah, Mitch, and Dylan…. There’s no way you can lose.

    Except Lawson.

  74. Hughes16 says:

    I want to go off topic a little bit. I want to thank Ebs, RNH, Hall and sports check for making my 5 year old boy(Cam) and 6 year old boy(Zack) so proud to be an Oiler fan. They were terrific today and so gracious with there time and speaking to my boys. Thank you, and for all the failures on the ice this certainly doesn’t matter when you realize how great these guys are!!!! When I was 5 I meet Wayne Gretzky!!! So I know how my kids are feeling today.

  75. sliderule says:

    Lowetide,

    I understand Marner has played quite a bit of center this year particularly when Domi was at WJC..
    He went supernova during that period.

    He doesn’t play like winger as he comes back deep into zone and usually is getting the puck out of zone rather than racing ahead of play.

    I would think as he is so young no matter who drafts him he will be back in junior most likely playing center.

  76. Kmart99 says:

    G Money:
    Kmart99,

    Thanks!Yes, I think you are correct on all counts.I don’t expect to see a huge delta when accounting for scoring chance.But hoping to see an effect of some kind.

    For sure, high/low PDO teams would be a place to look.If PDO is fully regressing, there will be little to no change.But if there is an expected change, it means there isnon-regressing component to PDO (as many have surmised), and we’d actually have some numeric evidence of same.

    If PDO is fully regressing, which is the entire premise of the stat, i’ll be blown away. I’ll accept it, but my goodness it seems counter intuitive to me.

  77. Lowetide says:

    Hughes16:
    I want to go off topic a little bit. I want to thank Ebs, RNH, Hall and sports check for making my 5 year old boy(Cam) and 6 year old boy(Zack) so proud to be an Oiler fan. They were terrific today and so gracious with there time and speaking to my boys. Thank you, and for all the failures on the ice this certainly doesn’t matter when you realize how great these guys are!!!! When I was 5 I meet Wayne Gretzky!!! So I know how my kids are feeling today.

    Very nice, thanks for sharing!

  78. Lowetide says:

    leadfarmer:
    The Oilers have been waiting for a center with size for a long time, and now they get a chance to pick one in back to back years.I think thats who they like.I’m thinking they see it Strome, then Hanifin (they don’t like college D), Marner (small player).Although I would go with Hanifin.

    They did that last season with Leon. They don’t need a big center and it’s prudent to take the most talented player.

  79. GCW_69 says:

    Lowetide: Oilers scouts GOT a shakeup in front of the 2008 draft. I think they absolutely need to tighten it more (stop taking kids from the BCJHL!) but it is improved and imo several already drafted kids will have careers.

    The bar has to be excellence. Nothing less. Better than bad isn’t good enough. Average isn’t good enough. This team will continue to fail until it sets the bar at excellence and holds anyone who doesn’t meet it accountable.

  80. GCW_69 says:

    Lowetide: They did that last season with Leon. They don’t need a big center and it’s prudent to take the most talented player.

    With BM saying that the scouts he uses split 50-50 on Strome and Marner, I think it’s an open question who is the best player.

    Also, there is no such thing as too many big centres with skill.

  81. eidy says:

    Lowetide,
    Are you saying that is manner who is most talented. I’m not sure it’s clearly one over the other.

    I would bet more scouting agencies would have Hanafin at 3 than the other two. I’m fine with any of them.

    All we have to do is wait five years then just one more to find out the answer.

    Regardless I hope whomever they pick at three spends another year developing in the OHL/NCAA

  82. Lowetide says:

    GCW_69: The bar has to be excellence. Nothing less. Better than bad isn’t good enough. Average isn’t good enough. This team will continue to fail until it sets the bar at excellence and holds anyone who doesn’t meet it accountable.

    Sure. If there are better scouts available, bring them in. Question: WHY aren’t the Oilers bringing in better scouts before their most important draft this century?

    That’s a question I’ve had for some time.

  83. Kmart99 says:

    The depth on the wings got slim real quick after the Perron trade.

    I go Marner ahead of hanifin and strome.
    I would have even gone Marner ahead of Yakupov had they been the same year.

  84. godot10 says:

    thejonrmcleod: Does this mean yes or no to Noah?

    I’m telling MacT the name to say when he goes to the microphone on draft day.

  85. Lowetide says:

    eidy:
    Lowetide,
    Are you saying that is manner who is most talented. I’m not sure it’s clearly one over the other.

    I would bet more scouting agencies would have Hanafin at 3 than the other two. I’m fine with any of them.

    All we have to do is wait five years then just one more to find out the answer.

    Regardless I hope whomever they pick at three spends another year developing in the OHL/NCAA

    I have Marner No. 3. He has fewer questions than Strome (speed issues for Strome, some size concern for Marner) and although I do like Hanifin for me the slight edge goes to Marner.

  86. Gerta Rauss says:

    I would take Hanifin at 3, but I’d be quite happy with any of the top 5 names, they all look terrific. And the Oilers have so many holes in the organization, you could make a reasonable case for any of the 5.

  87. Kmart99 says:

    He should just call Connor Mcdavid’s name even if buffalo has already called it. #becauseoilers

    With the 4th overall selection, the edmonton oilers are so proud to select, from the Erie Otters (Strome stands up) … Connor McDavid. Drops mic, Zoolanders it.

  88. rickithebear says:

    2011 draft RNH 6’0″ 170lb

    Shanon on SN said marner is 6’0″ 167lb

    His back check is deep and centered.
    It is like watching 93 in copper and blue

    When he attacks from the wing.
    Tight stride net drive like Eberle.

  89. Woodguy says:

    Younger Oil:
    Woodguy,

    Just curious, out of Strome, Marner, and Hanifan, who would you want the Oilers to draft 3rd Overall at the moment?

    I seem to be changing my mind every day, no matter what it seems like we are going to get one hell of a player.

    Hanifin, Marner, Strome is my list on those 3.

  90. GCW_69 says:

    Lowetide: Sure. If there are better scouts available, bring them in. Question: WHY aren’t the Oilers bringing in better scouts before their most important draft this century?

    That’s a question I’ve had for some time.

    I have the same question. There is no cap on what you can spend on scouting. If you let word get out that the Oilers will pay a premium for high quality scouts, at least some good ones will want to test the waters when thier contracts are expiring.

    I have generally assumed the Oilers have thier favourite scouts, those that kiss ass the right way or are connected to the boys in the bus, and they have jobs for life.

    Additionally, it’s pretty clear no one in that organization has actually looked up what accountability means, let alone hold anyone to it.

  91. Gerta Rauss says:

    Kmart99: He should just call Connor Mcdavid’s name even if buffalo has already called it. #becauseoilers

    that made me laugh…imagine the crickets on TSN…ha!!!

  92. Kmart99 says:

    There is a stigma(one of many) attached to the Oilers that says all they ever draft are small wingers. So there’s a fear that another small winger will be a problem.

    But i’d argue that Nuge, Draisaitl, and Nurse are not small wingers.

    So Marner, you my friend are #3. Come on down. Hanifin #4. Strome #5.

    “The big knock on Marner is his diminutive frame. According to him, though, he’s due for a growth spurt. Marner’s brother was 5-foot-9 at 16 but shot up to 6-foot-3 in a span of three years.”

    http://metronews.ca/voices/knights-outright/623622/mitch-marner-london-knights-first-pick-brings-doug-gilmour-qualities/

  93. Woodguy says:

    leadfarmer:
    The Oilers have been waiting for a center with size for a long time, and now they get a chance to pick one in back to back years.I think thats who they like.I’m thinking they see it Strome, then Hanifin (they don’t like college D), Marner (small player).Although I would go with Hanifin.

    Leon Draisaitl says hello.

  94. Woodguy says:

    GCW_69,

    Also, there is no such thing as too many big centres with skill.

    This is true.

  95. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: I have Marner No. 3. He has fewer questions than Strome (speed issues for Strome, some size concern for Marner) and although I do like Hanifin for me the slight edge goes to Marner.

    Marner’s brother went from 5’9″ to 6’1″ or so in a year.

    Marner’s mother is a tall woman.

    I hear these things and think if his skill was in a 6’1″ package he would be a slam dunk #3 in this draft.

  96. sliderule says:

    Lowetide: Sure. If there are better scouts available, bring them in. Question: WHY aren’t the Oilers bringing in better scouts before their most important draft this century?

    That’s a question I’ve had for some time

    I think mact is the oiler final say scout.
    He was at bean pot were he watched Eichel and Hanifin.Reports are that he has watched just about every prospect the oilers are looking at in top sixty.

  97. Woodguy says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    I would take Hanifin at 3, but I’d be quite happy with any of the top 5 names, they all look terrific. And the Oilers have so many holes in the organization, you could make a reasonable case for any of the 5.

    More truth.

    If they stick to the script in the top 5 they won’t go wrong.

  98. Woodguy says:

    sliderule: I think mact is the oiler final say scout.
    He was at bean pot were he watched Eichel and Hanifin.Reports are that he has watchedjust about every prospect the oilers are looking at in top sixty.

    I’ve heard Green has a very strong voice at the final table.

    That’s a good thing.

  99. Heinz 57 says:

    sliderule:
    But just like in school when you are getting F’s in your mid terms someone has to take you by the ear and shake you up.

    After the first time someone takes you helpfully by the ear, it’s wise to go around wearing a plaster cast on your ear so that every other professor and hairy-knuckled peer doesn’t immediately repeat the same skin-handle frappé.

    Either that, or impersonate Mr Potato Head.

    ———

    Goofus: What did you do that for?

    Brutus: You’re in most desperate need of a helpful shaking.

    Goofus: But I’ve already been shaken up by the ear!

    Brutus: Your grades still suck …

    Goofus: Yeah—I’ve had a whole two hours to do something about it, and I spent half an hour of that walking to the drug store to get some aspirin.

    Brutus: That’s half an hour you could have put to better use if you ask me.

  100. Gerta Rauss says:

    Woodguy: Marner’s brother went from 5’9″ to 6’1″ or so in a year.

    Marner’s mother is a tall woman

    I heard his father was a mudder

  101. wheatnoil says:

    GCW_69: With BM saying that the scouts he uses split 50-50 on Strome and Marner,I think it’s an open question who is the best player.

    Also,there is no such thing as too many big centres with skill.

    It was a snap poll of 8 scouts that were split 50-50. It’ll be interesting to see how it all shakes out on the McKenzie final list.

    Marner has the greater points/game, but since Strome and McDavid usually play on different lines, his TOI may be effected.

    Using CHLstats.com, estimated TOI
    Strome – 4.71 p/60min
    Marner – 4.69 p/60min

    Whay about even-strength scoring?
    Strome: 1.1 P/G
    Marner: 0.98 P/G

    However, despite Marner getting potentially more minutes per game, he actually got less total even-strength time. Even-strength points / 60 min:
    Strome: 3.15
    Marner: 3.26

    Estimated individual points percentage:
    Strome: 0.87
    Marner: 0.98 (!)

    Both of these guys stir the drink on their lines, though Marner’s number is crazy high.

    Scouts split, numbers too close to call…

    This is going to be a nail-biter right to the end!

  102. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Woodguy: Leon Draisaitl says hello.

    As you, yourself have noted, good teams have 7 or 8 centres.

    By my count, once Boyd Gordon and Derek Roy are too old (very soon), the Oilers have precious few centres in the system.

    Hopkins, Draisaitl, Lander? Yakimov?….Bueller?

    You can make a pretty good argument for drafting Hanifin if you’re absolutely sure he will be a top pairing D but if, you don’t draft him…if it’s even close…you have to take the centre.

  103. Rondo says:

    Kris Baker @SabresProspects ·
    Marner started the year with one goal in his first 11 games, and ended with one in his last eight. He had 42 in 44 games in between.

  104. Kmart99 says:

    Looking back… i wonder where Marner would have been drafted in past drafts?

    Ahead of Stamkos? Tavares? Hall? Nuge? Yak? Ekblad? Mackinnon? Patrick Kane? Erik Johnson?

    I’d rank Marner ahead of a few of those names. At least 3 of them.

  105. Rondo says:

    Kmart99,

    If you listen to Brock Otten of OHL prospects he ranks Marner behind Sam Bennett

  106. rickithebear says:

    leadfarmer:
    The Oilers have been waiting for a center with size for a long time, and now they get a chance to pick one in back to back years.I think thats who they like.I’m thinking they see it Strome, then Hanifin (they don’t like college D), Marner (small player).Although I would go with Hanifin.

    2012 #63 khaira 6’3″ 215lb
    2013 #83 Yakimov 6’5″ 232lb
    2014 #3 Draisatl 6’1″ 210lb

  107. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy,

    Reading comprehension says hi back 🙂

  108. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: Crouse is good you’re right.

    Going to be one heck of a deal when the Flames move up to take him 3rd overall.

  109. Kmart99 says:

    Rondo:
    Kmart99,

    If you listen to Brock Otten of OHL prospectshe ranks Marner behind Sam Bennett

    Brock knows way more about what he’s talking about, but lots of good scouts have marner as high as #3 so i don’t think it’s a stretch to say he could have been a #1 in a few of the past years.
    ISS has marner at 5, and the hockey writers had him as low as 7 at one point so yeah, the book is definitely not out yet.

    It’s a deep draft.

  110. wheatnoil says:

    Rondo:
    Kmart99,

    If you listen to Brock Otten of OHL prospectshe ranks Marner behind Sam Bennett

    True, but if they were actually in the same draft year it might be a tough sell drafting Bennett ahead of Marner.

    Bennett – 1.60 points/game
    Marner – 2.0 points/game

    Points aren’t everything and Bennett is a centre and was young for his draft year, but he isn’t any larger than Marner and Marner is billed as a relatively complete player as well. It’d be a close call, but that’s a sizeable gap in points per game… greater than the gap in points per game between Marner and Strome (while acknowledging the points/60 I posted above)..

  111. Kmart99 says:

    When I hear “small” I get mildly concerned. When I hear “footspeed is a concern” then i get really worried about how much of a prospect’s talents will translate.

    Dylan Strome is a 6’2″ centre who has foot speed issues.
    Mitch Marner is a 5’10” winger who has size issues but claims he has a late growth spurt coming. I’d like to know the height of his parents.

    Offensively, maybe they are equal. One is bigger, one is faster. I really don’t think you can lose either way. Tomato Tomahto.

  112. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear,

    Khaira has a long way to go, to be a 4th line center.
    Yakimov is a good prospect but he is not a sure thing.
    Draisatl is a center with size as I said before but 6’1 210 is not that big anymore

  113. sliderule says:

    Rondo,

    He had a concussion just prior to the last ten games.

    Whether that had anything to do with it I don’t know.

    He is known like Nuge to be a playmaker and like Nuge in junior played the point on PP.

    Playing the point on PP limits your goal scoring chances.

  114. Ca$h-Money! says:

    Rondo:
    Kris Baker @SabresProspects·
    Marner started the year with one goal in his first 11 games, and ended with one in his last eight. He had 42 in 44 games in between.

    So I guess what they’re trying to say is that he had 44 goals all season?

  115. Kmart99 says:

    Look, when the lottery balls at 11.5% come up Edmonton, it’ll all be over. By over, I mean i will have consumed so much alcohol in celebration of the second coming that i may be dead.

  116. rickithebear says:

    Rondo:
    Kmart99,

    If you listen to Brock Otten of OHL prospectshe ranks Marner behind Sam Bennett

    Marner 6’0″ 167lb may 97 .66
    53 gm 2.28 PPG CHL 121P NHLE

    Bennett 6’0″ 180lb jun 96 .475
    11gm 2.18 PPG CHL 82P NHLE

    Brock who!

  117. sliderule says:

    Kmart99,

    He has a brother who is 6-3.

    He grew 5 inches from time London drafted him.

    I guess we will find out at combine.

  118. Kmart99 says:

    How tall is Marner honestly? Until the combine, all these height and weight numbers are just hocus pocus

  119. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Lowetide: I think Marner is the third best player in the draft. I would take him and be thrilled that my top six some time in the future might include Nuge, Leon, Hall, Yak, Eberle and Marner.

    Who does the defensive work to get the puck up ice to these six guys LT?

  120. Rondo says:

    wheatnoil,

    He says Bennett slightly bigger more physical , slightly faster skater and better defensively. But it is close

  121. Kmart99 says:

    sliderule:
    Kmart99,

    He has a brother who is 6-3.

    He grew 5 inches from time London drafted him.

    I guess we will find out at combine.

    See my previous post about the 6’3″ brother.

  122. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear,

    Marner may not be done growing. The part that I like about Marner is that you can let him grow in junior next year. I’d be worried that the brass like Stromes size so much they would put him in the lineup next year, and the defense corps is in such rough shape that Hanifin would probably get a job.

  123. wheatnoil says:

    I say they draft based on the chin-up count!

  124. Kmart99 says:

    Klima’s_Bucket: Who does the defensive work to get the puck up ice to these six guys LT?

    I know you asked LT, but right now NUGE does a good job. Draisaitl does an unbelievable job at the JR. level, and I hear McDavid is ok as well.

    Nurse could be good too.

  125. Kmart99 says:

    I sometimes wish there was a QB rating for defensemen. passcompletion%, rush yds/attempt, yds/pass, redzone stats, interceptions, etc…

    Would be nice.

  126. Pouzar says:

    I will make a safe bet that Marner gets bigger before Strome gets a whole lot faster and I love both these kids. IOW, the size issue regarding Marner is a non-issue for me. The kid is already tall enough and if one thinks he is going to remain at 165lbs for his playing career then I don’t know what to tell you.

  127. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Kmart99: See my previous post about the 6’3″ brother.

    PK Subban has a brother that is 5’8″

  128. Kmart99 says:

    Pouzar:
    I will make a safe bet that Marner gets bigger before Strome gets a whole lot faster and I love both these kids. IOW, the size issue regarding Marner is a non-issue for me. The kid is already tall enough and if one thinks he is going to remain at 165lbs for his playing career then I don’t know what to tell you.

    What about positional need?

    If all things are equal… you have to choose between speed and position. fast winger vs slow centre.

  129. Kmart99 says:

    Dashingsilverfox: PK Subban has a brother that is 5’8″

    huh.. so PK is going to shrink? 😉

  130. Woodguy says:

    Gerta Rauss: I heard his father was a mudder

    His mother was a mudder.

  131. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Kmart99: huh.. so PK is going to shrink?

    Just checked the growth factor again.

    PK is 6’0″

    Malcolm is up to 6’2″ !

    Jordan is up to 5’9″!

  132. Woodguy says:

    Dashingsilverfox: As you, yourself have noted, good teams have 7 or 8 centres.

    By my count, once Boyd Gordon and Derek Roy are too old (very soon), the Oilers have precious few centres in the system.

    Hopkins, Draisaitl, Lander? Yakimov?….Bueller?

    You can make a pretty good argument for drafting Hanifin if you’re absolutely sure he will be a top pairing D but if, you don’t draft him…if it’s even close…you have to take the centre.

    Hanifin has been killing it.

    Just turned 18 at the end of January.

    Been close to 1pt/gm in the second half of the season.

    Stephen Burtch ‏@SteveBurtch 3h3 hours ago
    Noah Hanfin’s USDP pts/gp rank him 3rd all time amongst D with 40+ gp. Ahead of Erik Johnson, Ryan Suter, Cam Fowler, Kevin Shattenkirk..

    He’s also a better skater than any of the above mentioned players.

    I think he’s special and worth it at 3.

  133. Woodguy says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy,

    Reading comprehension says hi back

    I blame LT’s choice of font.

    And Laforge.

  134. Lowetide says:

    Klima’s_Bucket: Who does the defensive work to get the puck up ice to these six guys LT?

    Klefbom, Marincin, Nurse and the kid we draft with the Penguins pick at No. 22 🙂

  135. Pouzar says:

    Kmart99: What about positional need?

    If all things are equal… you have to choose between speed and position.fast winger vs slow centre.

    Not a believer in drafting for need this high in the draft. Need to take who you think is best imo.

  136. wheatnoil says:

    Woodguy,

    What’s the gap between Hanifin and Werenski? I ask because I’ve never seen Werenski play (and Hanifin only at the world juniors). Werenski is younger than Hanifin (turns 18 in the summer), has more points/game and is a similar size. Do you know what scouts say he lacks that Hanifin has?

  137. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy: Hanifin has been killing it.

    Just turned 18 at the end of January.

    Been close to 1pt/gm in the second half of the season.

    Stephen Burtch ‏@SteveBurtch3h3 hours ago
    Noah Hanfin’s USDP pts/gp rank him 3rd all time amongst D with 40+ gp. Ahead of Erik Johnson, Ryan Suter, Cam Fowler, Kevin Shattenkirk..

    He’s also a better skater than any of the above mentioned players.

    I think he’s special and worth it at 3.

    Last year we talked about the risk of taking a d-man in the top 5. I “think” you were in that camp?!?!
    Why are you so sure about Hanifin here?

  138. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: Klefbom, Marincin, Nurse and the kid we draft with the Penguins pick at No. 22

    Klefbom, Nurse, Schultz and the NHLer they pick up for Marincin and PIT’s 1st.

  139. godot10 says:

    Dashingsilverfox: As you, yourself have noted, good teams have 7 or 8 centres.

    Good teams have defensemen. The Oilers have maybe two.

  140. sliderule says:

    Heinz 57,

    My mother doesn’t have hairy knuckles.

  141. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Woodguy: Hanifin has been killing it.

    Just turned 18 at the end of January.

    Been close to 1pt/gm in the second half of the season.

    Stephen Burtch ‏@SteveBurtch3h3 hours ago
    Noah Hanfin’s USDP pts/gp rank him 3rd all time amongst D with 40+ gp. Ahead of Erik Johnson, Ryan Suter, Cam Fowler, Kevin Shattenkirk..

    He’s also a better skater than any of the above mentioned players.

    I think he’s special and worth it at 3.

    Agree but…if, as I expect, the Leafs win the lottery, it may go:

    Toronto – McDavid

    Buffalo – Eichel

    Arizona – Hanifin

    Edmonton – ????

    There is some chance Arizona will pass on Hanifan because they already have OEL but they may not.

    If that’s the scenario, (or if NJ wins the lottery like LT thinks) I think the Oilers have to take Strome.

  142. Dashingsilverfox says:

    godot10: Good teams have defensemen.The Oilers have maybe two.

    That’s so true.

    In this draft, I would go Hanifin then Strome.

    Another winger is just delaying the inevitable.

  143. Dashingsilverfox says:

    sliderule:
    Heinz 57,

    My mother doesn’t have hairy knuckles.

    She did before she waxed them 🙂

  144. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Lowetide: Klefbom, Marincin, Nurse and the kid we draft with the Penguins pick at No. 22

    Thanks for quelling all my fears.

  145. Kmart99 says:

    Pouzar: Not a believer in drafting for need this high in the draft. Need to take who you think is best imo.

    Neither am I, but what if your scouts tell you all things are equal? The only difference being size, speed, and position?

    Position and Size(maybe) in favor of Strome
    Speed in favor of Marner
    Everything else equal? who do you pick?

    Heck, maybe Hanifin is clearly ahead of them.
    I really don’t think you can go wrong between Hanifin, Strome, and Marner.

  146. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Kmart99: Neither am I, but what if your scouts tell you all things are equal?The only difference being size, speed, and position?

    Position and Size(maybe) in favor of Strome
    Speed in favor of Marner
    Everything else equal? who do you pick?

    The centre.

  147. Kmart99 says:

    Dashingsilverfox: The centre.

    Can’t say i disagree… I’m on the fence.

  148. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Panthers just signed Colin Stevens from Union.
    He’s got a career .923 sp%.
    Was he ever on the Oilers radar or are they more enamoured with O’Connor?

  149. Numenius says:

    Kmart99: “The big knock on Marner is his diminutive frame. According to him, though, he’s due for a growth spurt. Marner’s brother was 5-foot-9 at 16 but shot up to 6-foot-3 in a span of three years.”

    You need to put that quote in context. That was written when Marner was 5′ 7″ 130 lbs in 2013.

    So the growth spurt it’s referring to is the one he’s already experienced (or may still be experiencing).

    So the height he has now (apparently 6’0″) may be all the height he gains.

    His brother went to 6’3″, but he started at 5’9″ at 16, not at 5’7″.

  150. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Arizona loses 3-1 to the Canucks…if ever there was a doubt about that.

  151. fifthcartel says:

    The Oilers should sign Eetu Laurikainen.

    http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=43532

    Good numbers in the CHL, and in the Finnish league this year. Only 6′ ft so I’m guessing that’s why he was undrafted/unsigned.

  152. Zelepukin says:

    G Money: Unless the Oilers put on their Thinking Toques, go into Smartest Men in the Room Today (SMRT) mode, and pick Lawson Crouse.

    I’d say 70% chance this happens. #becauseoilers.

  153. Zelepukin says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Toronto – McDavid
    Buffalo – Eichel
    Arizona – Hanifin
    Edmonton – ????

    I’d say there is a 80% chance this happens, but swap out Hanifin for Strome. Arizona doesn’t pick a d-man when their 1C is Mark friggin Arcobello.

  154. Zelepukin says:

    If we get Eichel we keep him, but and call me crazy, if we win the draft I think we should seriously consider trading McDavid for a king’s ransom. Someone in the 7-10 range (NJ, Carolina) for their 1st and a 1-2Dman.

  155. Kmart99 says:

    Zelepukin:
    If we get Eichel we keep him, but and call me crazy, if we win the draft I think we should seriously consider trading McDavid for a king’s ransom. Someone in the 7-10 range (NJ, Carolina) for their 1st and a 1-2Dman.

    You’re crazy. Even if it was like PK Subban+Carey Price+ i don’t think i’d do it. McDavid is a once every 10 years player. If you can get him, that’s what you do.

  156. frjohnk says:

    Zelepukin:
    If we get Eichel we keep him, but and call me crazy, if we win the draft I think we should seriously consider trading McDavid for a king’s ransom. Someone in the 7-10 range (NJ, Carolina) for their 1st and a 1-2Dman.

    Id keep Mcdavid, and trade anybody else.

    Unless there was a serious overpay. Like OEL, Hanzal and their 1st round pick.

    Price, Subban and their 1st.

    Even then, I don’t think I would trade him.

  157. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy: I’ve heard Green has a very strong voice at the final table.

    That’s a good thing.

    You guys should draft Ewanyk!
    You guys should draft Moroz!

    This is a good thing?

  158. VOR says:

    Wheat oil, the simple answer is Hanifin can play it any way you like. Except for a canon from the point he is as close to the perfect defensive prospect as any scout has ever seen. He is very good at changing the angle on his shot and very accurate. In other words scouts look at him and see a top end 2way defenceman.

    Werenski is also an extremely talented player. Under pressure in his own zone he is amazing. He just picks the forecheck apart and the pucks out. On the other hand while most scouts say he is almost as good without the puck in his own end as Hanifin, they do see a difference, and believe it is important. Yet the same scouts go on to say they wouldn’t be surprised if Werenski turned out to be the best defenceman in this draft. In other words the difference is small indeed.

  159. Lois Lowe says:

    Zelepukin: I’d say there is a 80% chance this happens, but swap out Hanifin for Strome. Arizona doesn’t pick a d-man when their 1C is Mark friggin Arcobello.

    Dave Tippet is ruining Sam Gagner!

  160. Ryan says:

    Dashingsilverfox:
    Arizona loses 3-1 to the Canucks…if ever there was a doubt about that.

    Clap clap.

    Dashingsilverfox: The centre.

    Sort of like with Seguin and Hall.

    Who was it that famously said they had Seguin and it wasn’t even close?

  161. stevezie says:

    VOR,

    The lesson here is if someone is willing to get crazy to trade up, oblige them. Right?

  162. Suntory Hanzo says:

    Seguin scored 2 on his injury return. Hall didn’t. It clear that the Oilers should have taken Landeskog.

  163. Магия 10 says:

    leadfarmer:
    I really wish the NHL would move from the 2 point system for wins to the 3 point system with a win in regulation or OT getting 3 points.Shootout win 2 points, Shootout loss 1 point.Loss 0 points.The current system unfortunately does not distinguish between regulation wins and shootout wins, which the first should reward more points than the latter.But the big reason I like the switch is the current system doesn’t have much of reward for taking risks in overtime to settle the game.Teams try to win but if the opportunity doesn’t present itself they are happy to go to a shootout.In the current system, given that the average team wins 50% of the shootouts and loses 50%, over the long run the team willavg 1.5 out of every 2 available points every time they go to a shootout.That means just by going to a shootout you will get 75% of the available points of a regulation win, not bad considering that in reality you actually tied.

    Now if you change the system to the above system, that seriously changes the equation.Teams in overtime realize that they have a 50% chance of walking away with only one out of the three available points which would be unacceptable, and if they win the shootout they get two out of the three available points.In the long run that means the average team will only get 1.5 out of three available points when the game goes to a shootout.This will push teams into taking chances in overtime to win the game, and a very entertaining overtime at that.

    A few years back this got talked up a lot and went to the GMs who ran from it. They like fake .500 and apparently close races where you can’t make ground. They actually believe fans would stop coming when they are 3x pts back rather than 2x pts back. They don’t like the other idea either which is to go from rewarding to penalizing shootouts I.e. 2 for reg or ot wins. 1 for shootout wins. 0 for all losses.

  164. dangilitis says:

    Why the last 10 games actually mean something to me:
    (Just throwing it out there because team will be evaluated on the merit of its record with solo Nelson)

    Oilers only exceed Buffalo in terms of points against WC teams. Buffalo would have easily caught them, however, if they had the extra 17 games that the Oil were spotted.

    Points earned per game against WC teams, League-Wide:
    30. EDM 0.250 (20 PTS, RECORD: 5-25-10)
    29. BUF 0.283 (13 PTS, RECORD: 6-16-1)
    28. ARI 0.344 (31 PTS, RECORD: 13-27-5)
    27. CAR 0.389 (21 PTS, RECORD: 9-15-3)
    26. TOR 0.389 (21 PTS, RECORD: 10-16-1)
    25. NJD 0.423 (22 PTS, RECORD: 9-13-4)

    5. NAS 0.682 (60 PTS, RECORD: 27-11-6)
    4. PIT 0.700 (35 PTS, RECORD: 16-6-3)
    3. NYR 0.740 (37PTS, RECORD: 16-4-5)
    2. ANA 0.750 (69 PTS, RECORD: 32-9-5)
    1. DET 0.780 (39PTS, RECORD: 18-4-3)

    Even worse than Buffalo. If you take Buffalo away, there is a wide gap between Edmonton and the next worst WC team, Arizona, who generally suck worse than Edmonton. Remember that Arizona swept the season series against Edmonton (Arizona 10 pts, Edmonton 1), suggesting they suck equally against other teams in the west, but fortunately for them, Edmonton is a team in the west…

    The difference between Edmonton and other teams in the West in terms of their performance against Conference rivals is more drastic. Within the WC, points per game earned by WC teams against other WC teams stacks up like this:
    14. EDM 0.250 (20 PTS, RECORD: 5-25-10)
    13. ARI 0.344 (31 PTS, RECORD: 13-27-5)
    12. DAL 0.488 (40 PTS, RECORD: 16-17-8)
    11. COL 0.513 (41 PTS, RECORD: 17-16-7)
    10. VCR 0.563 (45 PTS, RECORD: 21-16-3)

    6. CHI 0.616 (55 PTS, RECORD: 25-15-3)
    5. LAK 0.619 (52 PTS, RECORD: 21-11-10)
    4. CGY 0.650 (52 PTS, RECORD: 25-13-2)
    3. MIN 0.655 (55 PTS, RECORD: 25-14-5)
    2. NAS 0.682 (60 PTS, RECORD: 27-11-6)
    1. ANA 0.750 (69 PTS, RECORD: 32-9-5)

    Dallas, 3rd worst in the conference, is still picking up points against the west at nearly 2x the rate as Edmonton. Which means that 12/13 teams in the West are racking up between 2-3x as many points the Oilers against Western opposition. That’s a lot of ground to make up against Eastern conference teams for the other 32 games in the season, where the Oilers’ performance has been spectacular relative to its WC record, but average relative to the rest of the league (0.516 point percentage).

    And as I was getting to my punchline and crunching the numbers to see how many games Nelson has coached against the East vs West, and what do you know, Terry Jones beat me to the punch…
    (http://www.edmontonsun.com/2015/03/22/jones-oilers-beasts-against-the-east)

    Although his facts are a bit off – 21 of the 36 games Nelson has “solo coached” have been against the East, which is still way off the norm for a Western conference team’s normal distribution of non-conference opponents over a significant stretch:
    – Oilers have a 4-7-4 record against the West since Dec 30th (4 wins against SJS, LA, CHI, MIN; 7 losses against STLx2, MINx2, CGY, ANA, LA; 4 OT losses against CHI, WPG, CGY, COL), for a whopping 0.400 points per game.
    – If you count the 5 games of Nelson with MacT over his shoulder, it changes significantly to 4-10-6 for 0.350 points per game
    – Eakins’ Oilers WC record this year (20 games): 1-15-4 for 0.150 points per game
    (Nelson’s Oilers have a record against the East of 9-10-2, worse than Eakin’s Oilers this season at 6-4-1, if any one is keeping track)

    So in summation:
    – You can’t fake those kinds of numbers under Eakins – all kinds of awful. I am not sure how far they would have turned north if he had the reins for the full season, but I sure as shit don’t want to know.
    – The Oilers, under Nelson, best case scenario (subtracting the MacT-Nelson duo games), have scraped together points against the West at a rate that would have them just above Arizona next year – hey, that’s where they are now!
    – 10/25 games against the West under Nelson are still to play, with a good smattering of different teams (WPG, COLx2, DAL, LAKx2, ANA, CGY, SJS, VCR), 6 against divisional rivals. This could change the points per game from 0.400 to anywhere between 0.240 and 0.640.
    – 13 points in the next 10 games would take the ppg under Nelson to 0.500. Is that good enough? For me, anything less than that and they better hire an external search and selection committee to scan for coaches.

  165. Yeti says:

    Магия 10: A few years back this got talked up a lot and went to the GMs who ran from it. They like fake .500 and apparently close races where you can’t make ground. They actually believe fans would stop coming when they are 3x pts back rather than 2x pts back. They don’t like the other idea either which is to go from rewarding to penalizing shootouts I.e. 2 for reg or ot wins. 1 for shootout wins. 0 for all losses.

    I’m sure this kind of thing has been discussed at length, but isn’t the best plan to go 3 points for a regulation win; 2 for OT/shootout win; 1 for OT/shootout loss and 0 for a regulation loss?

  166. frjohnk says:

    dangilitis,

    One thing for me is that the 1st wave of core players ( RNH, Ebs, Yak) have definitely seen improvement under Nelson. The 2nd wave of core/support ( Klefbom, Lander) also have improved.

    Knowing how much this season has been sewered by bad goaltending, I don’t think we can just say ” Nelson has to win xxx amount of games to be considered for the job”

    Winning is definitely a consideration, but not the only one.

    To me, Nelson has earned the job.

    Id like to see what he can do with a training camp, and a healthy roster.

    Hire the man.

  167. delooper says:

    leadfarmer:
    I went to the WIld Blues game yesterday.Man Dubnyk looks good.Turned out just like LT and I thought he would.Great lateral movement for a big man, tracks the puck well, is in good position.They spent the first 10 minutes of wormup everyone only shooting at his glove side.He looks like he put in a lot of work in the offseason and is in great shape.

    St.Louis on the other hand, I think they are the new San Jose.Great regular season team, but I dont think they will make it far in the playoffs.

    The simpler solution is to award 2 points per game. Get rid of overtime completely. If you want to do anything special to avoid tie games, I’d suggest this rule. If the 3rd period starts with a tie, and there is a stoppage of play in the final 5 minutes **without any goals being scored in the 3rd period** then you pull both goaltenders and play 5 vs 5 until a goal is scored. Teams can put their goalies back in net once the first goal of the 3rd period is scored.

    If the game ends in a tie, both teams get one point, as Mazda wills it.

  168. striatic says:

    pocession charge: SSM sure looks like a championship team. They are absolutely steamrolling teams heading into the playoffs.

    Who would you take in the Memorial cup? Greyhounds or Rockets?

    Wouldn’t that be fun for Oilers fans?

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