TIN MEN

It’s clear now that the Edmonton Oilers plan to use Niki Nikitin in a feature role now through the end of the season. The big man received a ton of playing time last night and the numbers tell a fascinating story. Here’s a look at Edmonton’s blue from last night.

 NELSON’S BLUE, LAST NIGHT

PLAYER EV TOI 5×5 CORSI FOR % EV OZ STARTS %
JUSTIN SCHULTZ 22:01 26-22 (54%) 77
OSCAR KLEFBOM 22:31 18-21 (46%) 75
MARK FAYNE 14:19 9-17 (35%) 36
NIKI NIKITIN 21:03 21-23 (48%) 35
MARTIN MARINCIN 12:48 15-12 (56%) 22
ANDREW FERENCE 2:27 1-3 (25%) 0

Whenever a defender goes down early it means we go back to the era of the ‘extra’ defenseman. If you grew up in the sixties and seventies, you knew all the 5D because they (mostly) couldn’t skate and shuffled around the league. Anyway, the pairings going into last night were Klefbom—Schultz, Nikitin—Fayne and Marincin—Ference. When Ference went down, Todd Nelson found a way to get Marincin ice time but it came at the expense of Mark Fayne.

I think that’s a tell. The Oilers clearly want Niki Nikitin to play big minutes (at one point he played over 2 minutes in one shift last night, it was a Belov moment) and last night he did in fact play over 21 minutes at even strength. The results? Not bad, although visually Niki reminds one of the first Igor Ulanov games (99-00, after he came from Montreal). Niki Nikitin is one year away from NHL extinction, suspect we’ll see him in Edmonton this summer training for 2015-16.

I think we can safely say Edmonton (should they continue along these lines) will waste the 2015-16 season casting about for a defense that works. I like Klefbom and do believe Marincin can help a team but the more I see of Justin Schultz the more convinced I become there’s slim hope for this player as a significant piece to a winning team. The Edmonton Oilers need to get away from him as soon as possible. Whatever his offensive ability, and it is there, the young man simply doesn’t have the acumen to play NHL defense.

SOLVING THE BLUE

In word and deed Craig MacTavish has been telling us what the Oilers’ future looks like on defense: Tall trees who are mobile (Klefbom, Nurse) and aggressive along with explosive offensive talents (Schultz, Hunt). If the Oilers plan to run Klefbom—Schultz as their No. 1 duo (they aren’t going to be getting tragic ZS’s) then it’s the top tandem in name only—the toughest minutes will go to others.

Martin Marincin is a strong candidate to fill one of the four tougher minutes roles and I do think he can help a team. Edmonton needs to add two quality NHL defensemen (veterans in their 20’s) into the mix if they have any hope of turning north next season. Who are these men? Well, one of them could be Jeff Petry but we know Edmonton isn’t convinced of him (despite a stronger track record than they guys they currently employ).

VOLLMAN SLEDGEHAMMER (NYR, NAS, CHI, LAK)

vollman sledgehammer mar 24

We’re looking for players who can help immediately and play in the upper left quadrant (upper right only if necessary, remember we’re giving the ZS push to Klefbom—Schultz). Who do you like here? Shea Weber? Dan Girardi? His bubble is green (-8.32 Corsi on, this is Corsi Rel, Qual Comp by the way) and that’s not really what we’re looking for here. Hjalmarsson? Sure! They’re not trading him.

I think Ryan McDonagh, Marc Staal, Kevin Klein and Johnny Oduya are reasonable targets here. I’ve chosen teams with cap issues plus Nashville because this might be the ideal time to trade Shea Weber. Shea Weber. He’s an obvious candidate because the Predators could cash him now for the back half of his career and make out like bandits. I think I’d try to target McDonagh with Kevin Klein as a backup plan.

You know that some of these names are going to cost a pretty penny, right? Part of me thinks the Oilers should stay the course but I don’t think they have any time left. This city will explode if the defense doesn’t tighten soon. They must get a stud defenseman and a quality starting goalie this summer.

It’s going to cost you, Oilers nation. Get ready to say goodbye to something you love. Just saying.

JOHANSSON

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

10 this morning, TSN 1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Jonathan Willis, Cult of Hockey and Oilers Nation. Where will Edmonton get their defensive help? Who will it be? What will it cost?
  • Todd Cordell. His brilliant work on CHL prospects in terms of advanced metrics is very insightful. We’ll talk Leon and Strome.
  • Travis Yost, TSN. How is Ottawa doing this? Is it too late to trade for Wiercioch?
  • Guy Flaming, Pipeline Show. We’ll preview the Oil Kings—Wheat Kings series that begins Thursday on TSN1260.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide_ twitter. Talk soon!

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158 Responses to "TIN MEN"

  1. frjohnk says:

    Rishaug ” (Last night) Oilers were down to 4 usable D men and….Nikitin.”

    Rishaug tells it as it is with Nikitin.

    Hope MacT was listening.

  2. speeds says:

    Let’s say EDM and NSH are talking, and they get around to Hall for Weber. Who says no?

  3. Ca$h-Money! says:

    Can someone take a serious look at moving Schultz to RW? Seriously, he’s got some tools that make him an attractive player, but not a Dman, not even close.

    Good wrister, no slapper.
    Good skater, not physical.
    Good at skating the puck up the ice, mediocre short range passer, poor long range passer
    Tall and Lanky, not physical
    Lacks defensive accumen

    If his skill set is similar to anyone on the team, it’s most like Teddy Purcell (better skater worse passer).

    I just don’t understand what makes anyone think this guy is going to learn how to play defense. I honestly think it’s worth a shot.

  4. Ca$h-Money! says:

    frjohnk,

    We have very little evidence to suggest that MacT is good at changing his mind.

  5. dustrock says:

    I’d honestly prefer we just don’t resign Schultz and trade him for a pick.

    The funny thing about corsi and ZS/QoC is that NIkitin comes out looking okay with those numbers, but by eye he is very clearly not an NHL defenceman.

    He’s ponderous at the best of times, and if there’s any chaos, he just falls apart.

  6. Snowman says:

    Ca$h-Money!,

    I’ve thought about that too. My problem comes with he’s a less skilled version of the small forwards we already have. So… he is neither a very useful offensive d or a candidate to help us on the wing. He would get eaten alive by the actual d he would have to play against. The big forwards in the league already dominate him down low.

  7. Stud Muffin says:

    3rd overall and something for OEL

  8. kinger_OIL says:

    So MM had the hardest zone starts, and the best Corsi, yet he played the least minutes of the 5 D? This team and its future as LT has identified, is in trouble. I don’t like the consensus: well if we got a better goaler, and one more or two better D, and another good C, we would improve”. Folks there are 20 + teams in the league that would make a “jump to the next level” if they were all able to make the same additions. There is simply too much competition for those parts. What to do as a fan? By the way: any other blogs websites people use for amusement. I really like vox.com: great site with wonderful articles on science, economics, politics…That and LT are my two go to sites for web diversion.

  9. Woogie63 says:

    There is no evidence that MacT can pull of this type of deal….

  10. barry.moore23 says:

    My head hurts thinking about this……….

    that’s all.

  11. frjohnk says:

    dustrock: The funny thing about corsi and ZS/QoC is that NIkitin comes out looking okay with those numbers, but by eye he is very clearly not an NHL defenceman.

    Exactly, some of his plays last night were god awful.

    Bone headed decisions with the puck. out of position. how many blown tires did he have?

    And that backhand pass? WTF?

  12. Traktor says:

    Weber or McDonagh would be nice. So would Crosby or Kopitar. These guys aren’t getting moved even for Hall (who is quickly becoming injury prone).

    Johnny Oduya isn’t going to have a major impact even despite what his bubble might say.

    Its much easier to upgrade over NN or AF than it is of Schultz. I’d say pair him with a good vet but I like the idea of keeping him with Klefbom and letting them grow.. just on the 2nd pairing though.

    From your list I like Staal. Good player that wouldn’t cost as much as Weber ect.

  13. thatoneguy says:

    Personally I feel a good target would be Jay Bouwmeester. He’s a quality option but would not cost as much to acquire as Weber or McDonagh would. StL is pretty close to the cap and already has Pietrangelo and Shattenkirk. Getting a #1 D is tricky he has to be good enough to make an impact but you can’t overpay to trade for one because it will likely create further problems in the future.

  14. TheOrangeDesk says:

    It’s not outside the realm of possibility that the Penguins miss the playoffs..Anyone know if there are any clauses in the trade that prevent the oil from getting their pick if they miss?

  15. Ca$h-Money! says:

    TheOrangeDesk,

    They’re 6 points up with a game in hand on the 9th place team in the east. Pitts has 10 games left, Boston 9.

    They would have to be incredibly bad to not squeak into 8th, and they’re getting Malkin back in the next day or two.

  16. Clay says:

    speeds:
    Let’s say EDM and NSH are talking, and they get around to Hall for Weber.Who says no?

    I had the exact same thought.

    Here’s the conundrum.

    If MacT doesn’t get around to making one of those BOLD moves and bring in a legit #1 dman with sufficient tread on the tires, the Taylor Hall window is wasted anyway (with the injury miles he’s putting on, I think that window is smaller than most think). Something has to give. And who on this team brings back a Weber type?

    I believe it all hinges on who they get at the top of the draft. If it’s Hanifin (or a dman), Hall stays. If it’s Strome, I think Hall goes.

    Like LT said, get ready to say goodbye to something you love.

    Also, Justin MF Schultz. Good lord. His “defensive” effort on that first goal? “Whoops, lost mah stick. Guess I’ll skate in the other direction”.

    I don’t know if there’s ever been a dman more obviously ready for a tryout on the wing. Because I don’t think I’ve ever seen a dman more allergic to playing defence.

    And the minutes they keep giving this guy. I just don’t get it.

  17. slopitch says:

    I was at the game last night. Spent the night marvelling at Klefbom and cringing at NN. He cant be back next year. Our D turned the puck over a ton. Im not sure if it was lack of support, too much pressure from the Jets or lack of ability from the backend (likely all 3). The D really does need to improve or next year will be basically the same. I was jealous of the Jets team overall. So much size and skill. The shots were in our favour but I really felt the Jets carried the play.

    Really enjoyed watching Hall again. Nuge almost got murdered by Myers. Glad he survived.

  18. rickithebear says:

    speeds:
    Let’s say EDM and NSH are talking, and they get around to Hall for Weber.Who says no?

    Look at webers results without Rinne!

  19. jimbo says:

    Has Schultz been tried at forward?

  20. Rondo says:

    rickithebear,

    The problem is not the players. The players are just symptoms of the problem. The problem is an entrenched Oiler old boys establishment that keeps failing again and again and yet it keeps on applying the same failed solutions to problems. Players come and players go, but this establishment is forever and no matter how many times its remedies fail, it keeps on applying them without an ounce of self-reflection.

  21. frjohnk says:

    jimbo:
    Has Schultz been tried at forward?

    Has Schultz been tried at defence?

  22. leadfarmer says:

    I know people are dreaming of getting Weber, or MacDonagh, or even Seabrook here, but those guys would be so expensive I doubt we would land them. I would be happy with getting Voynov, who with his issues may be dealt, and Sekera just to give some improvement for next year.

  23. Klima's_Bucket says:

    jimbo: Has Schultz been tried at forward?

    Has Schultz ever tried playing defence?

  24. leadfarmer says:

    I don’t understand how Schultz still gets powerplay time. He gets the most powerplay time out of any Oiler player per game, and get this, he has not scored a powerplay goal all year. How does he avg 3 minutes of powerplay time a game, when he is absolutely no threat to score on the powerplay.

  25. justDOit says:

    Stumbled upon this today:

    Columbus: 225

    Dallas: 233

    Toronto: 237

    Arizona: 242

    Buffalo: 245

    Edmonton: 251

    Yes – that’s goals against. Good Gord…

  26. cahill says:

    I think when looking at the defense it’s tough to find minutes where you can hide Nikitan, Ference & Schultz. The player with the most value of those three is Schultz. If you could play Nikitan with the same zone starts / soft comp that you try to give Schultz are you worse off? From 2010-11 – 2013-14 – Nikitian’s Pts/60 was .92 which is better than any season Schultz has put up.

    The only thing is I don’t know what team other than Toronto there is a fit for Schultz and the return would be a defenseman (Phaneuf). And Phaneuf with 7 million and 4 years remaining is not an easy contract to pickup. Unless, looking at Colorado they after next year they need to get MacKinnon, Barrie O’Reilly, & E. Johnson signed. Do you think that the Av’s would look at possibly trading Johnson due to injury concerns and signability? The Oiler’s have to get creative to solving this thing.
    Schultz+ for Erik Johnson – I don’t know. I have no idea what his value is right now.

    The positive, of keeping Nikitan, Ference & Schultz, could mean a bottom 5 finish and maybe that leads to changes at the top.

    BTW – Just because a change of GM doesn’t mean the flattening and rebuild restarts. When Bergevin took over Montreal they were a bottom 5 team.

  27. rickithebear says:

    Traktor: Hall (who is quickly becoming injury prone).

    Hall has missed 77 of a posssible 367 games.
    he played 290.
    290 / 77 = 3.7762

    You want to talk injury prone.

    S. Bennett was on IR for 59 games before being sent to Junior.
    he missed 59 of a possible 59.
    59 X 3.7762 = 222
    Sam Bennett has to play 222 games in a row just to break even with Halls
    games played to missed ratio.

  28. hags9k says:

    Clay: “Whoops, lost mah stick.Guess I’ll skate in the other direction”.

    Whoops, Clay made me snort mah coffee.

  29. 719 says:

    Slim Shady is exactly what this team needs, which is why he will be traded.

  30. admiralmark says:

    I used to ask the question “how much failure by Oiler defenseman does it take for MacT to notice”? and vice versa “how much effective play by Oiler defenseman does it take for MacT to notice”. These were based on the assumption he was an intelligent hockey mind. And would eventually come to an intelligent assessment on the D players on this team… Well thats all gone out the window now. The only question I ask now is “how long is it going to be that this bumbling fool is at the helm”?

    If Nikitin continues his horrendous play over the final 10 games and MacT still sees him in the top 4 next year? Can someone explain to me what is going on here? I’m seriously baffled that a man with his experience is just that far out on his ability to assess.

  31. Jordan says:

    “…the more I see of Justin Schultz the more convinced I become there’s slim hope for this player as a significant piece to a winning team. The Edmonton Oilers need to get away from him as soon as possible. Whatever his offensive ability, and it is there, the young man simply doesn’t have the acumen to play NHL defense.”

    Welcome to the club LT. Your membership card and secret decoder ring are being emailed to you as we speak. You will need a 3D printer to make them.

    ————————————————

    Schultz as a RW makes a lot of sense.

    Nikitin as a Buyout makes a lot of sense.

    I sure hope MacT is a lot more devious that we give him credit for, or else next year will suck.

    ————————————————

    What are the odds on the team being terrible again next year, and KLowe coming back to GM for 2016-17, and MacT taking the bench again, just in time for the new rink.

    A 10 year plan to keep everything as it was prior to the prongergate?

  32. justDOit says:

    Clay: Also, Justin MF Schultz. Good lord. His “defensive” effort on that first goal?

    Reminded me of a play earlier in the season, where Jultz attempted to bat down a high pass with his glove, but in doing so dropped his stick. The resulting 15 seconds would have fit seamlessly into a Benny Hill sketch.

  33. Pouzar says:

    kinger_OIL:
    So MM had the hardest zone starts, and the best Corsi, yet he played the least minutes of the 5 D?

    That’s why we’re f^cked my friend. MacT wouldn’t know a defenseman if he walked in an introduced himself. “Hello my name is Martin Marincin…and I promise to stay in Edmonton this offseason.”

  34. cahill says:

    justDOit,

    Yesterday DSF mentioned Lehtonen being a good goalie having a bad year. This year with his .907 SV% if you replaced Lehtonen with Scrivens the Oil would have had 17 less goals. (That doesn’t include the .888 SV% of Fasth or .854 SV% of BTO.)

    In a regular season for Lehtonen (who has played in front of similarly bad defenses in Dallas and Atlanta) it would have saved 28 goals. If there’s a chance that Kari is available I’d make a call to Jim and see what the ask is.

  35. Jon K says:

    rickithebear: Hall has missed 77 of a posssible 367 games.
    he played 290.
    290 / 77 = 3.7762

    You want to talk injury prone.

    S. Bennett was on IR for 59 games before being sent to Junior.
    he missed 59 of a possible 59.
    59 X 3.7762 = 222
    Sam Bennett has to play 222 games in a row just to break even with Halls
    games played to missed ratio.

    In fairness to Traktor, I think the term “injury prone” speaks more to frequency of injury rather than magnitude of any single injury.

    It is a concern with Hall if he is facing multiple injuries in a season, like this year. Even if he is playing between injuries it is likely he isn’t 100%.

    Bennett having shoulder surgery to fix a lingering problem out of junior is something that Hall also had to do. Didn’t seem to slow either of them down. (Bennett: 11-13-24 in 11 games upon his return, crazy).

  36. rickithebear says:

    Jon K: (Bennett: 11-13-24 in 11 games upon his return, crazy).

    You can look good when lawson crouse takes the pressure off you!
    😉

  37. Bag of Pucks says:

    Are we at the point yet where we absolutely have to start praying for Hanifan to fall to this team in their draft slot?

    As far as I can tell, there is no clear separation btw Hanifan, Strome & Marner in this draft. This team has a 5 alarm need for competent D. If Hanifan is available with our pick and the smartest men in the room screw this up drafting another small forward they project as all world BPA, I will hand deliver a flaming bag of poop (not pucks) to MacTavish’s doorstep.

    Draft Hanifan, sign a UFA D, promote Nurse after 40GPs in the A, and by the new year, you’ve finally got a D Corps with adequate potential.

    Klefbom, Marincin, Fayne, Nurse, Hanifan, UFA signing

  38. Rondo says:

    Jakob Chychrun is looking good for the Oilers

  39. Woodguy says:

    In word and deed Craig MacTavish has been telling us what the Oilers’ future looks like on defense: Tall trees who are mobile (Klefbom, Nurse) and aggressive along with explosive offensive talents (Schultz, Hunt). If the Oilers plan to run Klefbom—Schultz as their No. 1 duo (they aren’t going to be getting tragic ZS’s) then it’s the top tandem in name only—the toughest minutes will go to others.

    This is similar to what the Oilers did with Coffey and Huddy.

    They got to play with the best offensive players and got the most 5v5 TOI, but when Bossy, Trotier, Kerr, Nealy, Loob etc. came on the ice then Lowe came on with Foggie and then Beukeboom etc.

    I can see MacT looking and thinking about Dpairs this way.

    His top pair is the top minute and top offensive producing pair, not necessarily the “tough minute” pair.

  40. Bag of Pucks says:

    LT, if I could make a suggestion for a future post?

    We now know with absolute certainty where the deadwood is that needs to be cut. Ference has to waive his NMC or get bought out. NIkitin needs to start thinking about careers post hockey. Schultz could be dealt at the draft along with the Pitt pick to potentially move up in the first round, etc.

    Now that we know the assets (suspects) that have to go, I’d love to see your thoughts on the best ways to leverage those outgoing players.

    A good GM will use these transactions to improve his depth. By contrast, Oiler mgmt typically hold the stock until it sewers then they light it on fire and throw it in the sink.

  41. G Money says:

    Re: Jultz.

    Remember when he was paired with Nultz?

    Remember how incompetent we knew Nultz to be?

    Notice how, on a team with a poor (but still much better than Edmonton’s) defense, Nultz once again looks like a capable 2nd/3rd pairing guy, just as he was when we acquired him?

    The quality of a player is really difficult to separate from context.

    The problem is that the context for any one of Nikitin, Ference, and Schultz in particular pretty much always includes ONE OF THE OTHER TWO GUYS.

    We can keep one of those three, pair them with a capable NHL quality defender, put them in the context of four more NHL quality defenders, and (like Nultz) they would likely be OK.

    ONE of those three. Not THREE of those three.

    Of those three, I would keep Jultz simply because he is young(est) and has some valuable skills, and (as much as the eye hates him), objectively when he’s on the ice, the puck is moving in the right direction more often than not.

    In other words – there is hope, however slight.

    There is no such hope with Nikitin and Ference.

    They both must go in order for the ship to start righting itself.

    Of course … we all know that’s not going to happen right?

    How ’bout that Auston Mathews!

  42. LMHF#1 says:

    Are we not still holding out hope that the first thing that will happen following the end of the regular season is that Nicholson will identify management and player evaluation as the problem, then proceed to get people who have a clue?

  43. justDOit says:

    cahill: Yesterday DSF mentioned Lehtonen

    Goalie voodoo aside, yes – that might be an upgrade for the Oilers. But he’ll be 32 before next season is a month old, and he’s coming off his worst season (stats wise) since he was in Atlanta. Was that on him, or that nondescript Dallas defense corps?

    And he’s got three more years at a $5.9M cap hit.

    I’m probably just a little jaded, but I see him drowning in pucks while playing behind NN, TCAF and Jultz, but I also don’t claim to know what the answer is.

  44. McSorley33 says:

    Great work again LT – this D ….

    At this point, some people need to consider that Mac T is just as bad as Tambo.

    As LT suggests, I think we are looking forward to next year with Jultz, Nikki and Ference all getting paid to play for the Edmonton Oilers.

    Has anyone ever seen an NHL d-man slap shot the puck around the whole rink – for icing – like Nikki did?

    Don’t worry folks – that is your shut down pairing guy next year….

    If Tambo proposed to bring back even 2 of 3 winners on D people would lose their mind….
    Craig is going to bring back all 3…….

  45. Jordan says:

    LMHF#1,

    Hoping for accountability with the Edmonton Oilers Management Group has been like Grimm’s version of Hanzel & Grettel. We all get attracted to the promises of future success and sweet plays and shiny draft picks..

    Except so far none of the children have escaped the oven.

  46. Hammers says:

    Same old same old . Schultz & Nikitin both no good & Ference would get the same label if he played . Your not getting a younger 20 year old defencemen or an older 20 year old ..Hope for 1 29-32 year old “D” and that our 1st pick is a fair size “D” in the draft , Hanifin or Provorov . Then in 2016 we have Nurse ,Klefbom , Hanifin , Marincin , Fayne , the new 29-32 “D” , Schultz #7 ,Ference #8 . Now McT has to do it . Guess what Ference , Nikitin & Schultz are going no where this year . The 2016-2017 season is what this is about .

  47. GCW_69 says:

    leadfarmer:
    I know people are dreaming of getting Weber, or MacDonagh, or even Seabrook here, but those guys would be so expensive I doubt we would land them.I would be happy with getting Voynov, who with his issues may be dealt, and Sekera just to give some improvement for next year.

    Voynov (assuming he isn’t in jail) and Sekera would be very good fits for this defence. You could run

    Sekera – Voynov
    Klefbom – Schultz
    Marincin – Fayne

    Or

    Sekera – Fayne
    Klefbom – Schultz
    Marincin – Voynov

    As defence by committee and probably survive.

    But, that would mean MacT admitting he is wrong about Ference and Nikitin and that just ain’t gonna happen.

  48. GCW_69 says:

    I wonder if Schultz would get you Voynov if Voynov is acquitted. Even if he is acquitted in LA, I imagine he would be pretty toxic from a fan perspective.

    In Edmonton, there is a GM with life experience in being toxic due to off ice problems and therefore might be interested in giving Voynov a second chance.

  49. Ca$h-Money! says:

    GCW_69,

    Sekera sounds good.

    Full honesty, I’m not sure I can cheer for this team if they pick up Voynov.

  50. McSorley33 says:

    Lost in all the talk of the nightmare 3 is Mark Fayne….how many games has he had like this:

    JW – COH – last nights grade for Fayne:

    #5 Mark Fayne, 2. He had one ugly giveaway, contributed to two goals against (including the starring role in Winnipeg’s 2-0 goal and took a minor penalty just for good measure. No wonder the coaches played him less than 17 minutes despite only having five defencemen.

  51. Bag of Pucks says:

    Btw, does anyone else see last night’s game as further proof this team needs more size to compete in the west?

    Roy, Eberle, Purcell, RNH, Yak. You’re giving away a lot on the boards and in the corners with all of these players in your lineup. Imagine a 7 game playoff series against a team like LA or WPG. Ugly.

    Now, Yak and Nuge are getting better on this front. They’re filling out and figuring out how to use leverage to best effect.

    Really surprised to see the momentum picking up to consider trading Hall (discussed on LT’s show today). Suspect it’s the injury history and newfound love for Pouliot. Eberle is older and I suspect has more trade value. If you’re thinking ‘bold move’ to address the D, I consider the smaller player.

    That said, I’d try to find a way to keep Ebs and move out Roy and Purcell for better more physical two way players. I’m never going to be a fan of Jordan’s two way game, but he’s creating so much on the O side now, I think you have to keep him unless the return is spectacular.

    The Oilers have to get to the point where they have one soft player max per line. Until they do, they’ll never compete in the west imo.

  52. j says:

    Remember when Staios was our biggest concern on the back end? I sure miss those days. I miss the 80s a lot more but I’d settle for 2008 at this point.

  53. djs says:

    It boggles the mind how there is SUCH a disconnect between what Craig et all think/do and what virtually everyone else thinks.

    As Woodguy and others have pointed out a few times, Craig is a man of his word. He does what he says and he believes what he says. Perhaps he’s learned his lesson, but I wouldn’t put my money down.

    I really don’t understand how Craig can call Jultz a future Norris, or how he can call Niki a Top 4, or how he ALWAYS forgets that lanky fella’s name. Why, Craig? What happened? We used to adore you. We used to believe you.

    I’m getting worried.

  54. sliderule says:

    McSorley33,

    i think when you look at Willis grade for MM in a game were he wasn’t on for a even ga and the shot metrics were good it pretty much says it all.

    Other than Nikki the defence wasn’t that bad .

    He was spot on with the goaltending mark.

  55. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Ca$h-Money!:
    GCW_69,

    Sekera sounds good.

    Full honesty, I’m not sure I can cheer for this team if they pick up Voynov.

    Robin Regehr is UFA at the end of the season and will be 35 next season, so I imagine Lombardi will likely hang on to the 28 year old Sekera.

    Lombardi is also incredibly loyal to his players (he refused to buy out Richards) so I would imagine he will try and hang on to Voynov.

    Remember the Kings got fined $100K for allowing Voynov to practise with the team.

  56. justDOit says:

    djs: I’m getting worried.

    I’ve been worried since Conklin dressed as backup in Game 1.

  57. Ca$h-Money! says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    As I mentioned previously, I would have a tough time cheering for a team that employed Voynov, even though I’ve been a big Oilers fan since birth.

    I’m sure I’m not the only one, and I think that applies to the Kings as well. I don’t think we’ll see Voynov suit up for anyone unless he’s shown to be fully and completely innocent, which is different than “his girlfriend decided she fell down the stairs instead”.

  58. LadiesloveSmid says:

    2015-2016 Oilers will die on the hill that is Schultz, Nikitin, and Ference. Let’s just hope when they *somehow* tank next year, MacT realizes the defence is the problem not Hall or Yak.

    I’d think where we are right now, we need Draisaitl, Nurse, Hanifin, and Brossoit to hit it BIG within the next 2 years for Hall+ not to want out when he’s missed the post season for his 7th straight year. Nash played 9 seasons for Columbus and had even made the playoffs once before wanting out. I miss the confidence I used to have in MacT

  59. VanOil says:

    Jultz + Purcell on a 1.5 M retain to NYR for Marc Staal? Purcell’s foot speed is Eastern Conference.

  60. djs says:

    VanOil,

    I think there would need to be a 1st rounder in there for Slats to even consider it. And even then we’d be talking about a serious downgrade in roster capability for the Rangers.

  61. rogue says:

    I have no idea who is RFA this year, but that is what I would chase as far as a Stud Dman. Some one in that 25-29 age bracket. Not a fan of it but it also sends a signal to your team that you are are commited to improving now, not in 2-4 years when the kids start to mature. Improving the Defence is the quickest way up the ladder of respectability. The only other way would be to trade Taylor Hall for one. You would still need another dman and a goalie, but at least you have sped things up.

    Use the first 3 picks on forwards and Dmen. Do not chase goalies with them. It seems more and more that goalies are popping up at a later age. It is a crap shoot on them, totally.

  62. Dicky94 says:

    Perron pick + Shultz + 3rd for Seabrook. Sign him to a Boychuck type deal to mentor the young guys. Especially Nurse who we all now will be playing on the team next year. As for Nikkitin … Howson should have to buy him out with his own money.

  63. leadfarmer says:

    Ca$h-Money!,

    So MacT can be forgiven but Voynov cannot? I don’t like what he did either, but if he gets help he should get a second chance. I don’t see a player returning to the same team after that though, no matter how loyal the GM is.

  64. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Ca$h-Money!:
    Dashingsilverfox,

    As I mentioned previously, I would have a tough time cheering for a team that employed Voynov, even though I’ve been a big Oilers fan since birth.

    I’m sure I’m not the only one, and I think that applies to the Kings as well.I don’t think we’ll see Voynov suit up for anyone unless he’s shown to be fully and completely innocent, which is different than “his girlfriend decided she fell down the stairs instead”.

    While we may abhor Voynov’s (alleged) actions, let’s remember that Craig McTavish actually killed a woman and went on to have a long, productive career.

    Di\d you cheer for the Oilers when MacT was a player?

  65. leadfarmer says:

    Dicky94,

    See thats what I’m worried the cost of Seabrook will be. No way do I pay that for a guy that gets the easier zone starts alongside Duncan Keith

  66. jbfuzz says:

    Is there any way a Purcell – Anisimov swap could be worked?

    As far as Jultz, would love to see him traded but the GM is stubborn. The Oilers will return the guys MacT said they would and will be drafting top 3 again in June 2016.

    As an Oilers fan, time is a flat circle.

  67. Ca$h-Money! says:

    leadfarmer,

    Voynov hasn’t shown any remorse for his actions, nor has he acknowledged that he did it.

    If Voynov gets out of this it will be because his Girlfriend doesn’t cooperate with the investigation or prosecution of the case. There is a different standard for legal culpability and moral culpability in my book.

    If Voynov owns up to his mistake and pays his penance, I’ll forgive him.

    Anyway that point is moot. The way the public reacted to something MacT did in the early 80s is not going to be the same as the way they react to something in 2015. The media will not let whichever team employs him off the hook for this, and as such I don’t see any owner or GM taking the risk of putting him on the team.

    It would be too much of a publicity black eye.

  68. speeds says:

    Clay,

    rickithebear,

    Not advocating for the trade, just wondering if it’s something that may be discussed.

  69. speeds says:

    rogue:
    I have no idea who is RFA this year, but that is what I would chase as far as a Stud Dman. Some one in that 25-29 age bracket. Not a fan of it but it also sends a signal to your team that you are are commited to improving now, not in 2-4 years when the kids start to mature. Improving the Defence is the quickest way up the ladder of respectability. The only other way would be to trade Taylor Hall for one. You would still need another dman and a goalie, but at least you have sped things up.

    Use the first 3 picks on forwards and Dmen. Do not chase goalies with them. It seems more and more that goalies are popping up at a later age. It is a crap shoot on them, totally.

    Hamilton doesn’t fit that age bracket, but this is part of the argument behind throwing an offer sheet at him.

  70. speeds says:

    Just to expand, he fits the age of the rest of the core, would probably cost a 1st+2nd+3rd, but if you went that route, in theory, you might be keeping draft picks for2015 and then use the 2016 ones instead to improve via a player heading towards his prime, instead of trading picks for declining players.

  71. justDOit says:

    Travis Yost for the new Oilers’ AYSYWTDT!

  72. Dashingsilverfox says:

    speeds: Hamilton doesn’t fit that age bracket, but this is part of the argument behind throwing an offer sheet at him.

    Dougie Hamilton is out with a shoulder injury and may need surgery.

    He would appear to be an ideal target for the Oilers 🙂

  73. jbfuzz says:

    Could Schultz be moved for a Gudbranson or a Brendan Smith?

  74. Ca$h-Money! says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    Sure, but I was born in 83′. I probably didn’t find out about him spending time in prison until he was brought back to the team as a manager, to be honest.

    Either way forgiveness requires contrition. I don’t see evidence of that from Voynov.

  75. speeds says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Dougie Hamilton is out with a shoulder injury and may need surgery.

    He would appear to be an ideal target for the Oilers

    thanks for the heads up, could potentially change things depending on the prognosis.

  76. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Canucks re-sign Chris Tanev…5 year deal @ $4.45M giving up 3 years of UFA.

  77. Lois Lowe says:

    Dashingsilverfox:
    Canucks re-sign Chris Tanev…5 year deal @ $4.45M giving up 3 years of UFA.

    Tanev is an excellent player and that is an excellent contract.

  78. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Lois Lowe: Tanev is an excellent player and that is an excellent contract.

    Yeah. I was just looking at his numbers.

    Plays the toughest opposition with Edler.

    CF – 52.8%

    FF – 54.7%

    Doesn’t score much but is a very good defensive defenseman and puck mover.

    And, to warm the cockles of Tom Benjamin’s heart…he was an undrafted free agent signing.

  79. russ99 says:

    Not sure if you guys saw this already from Elliote’s column today:

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/matthew-wuest-remembered-hard-working-pioneer/

    Sad…

  80. leadfarmer says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    Which is probably the contract MacT will sign Norris for in the offseason. Theverbal on some of the players from management is very different than the verbal from some of us third tier fans.

  81. TemujinBC says:

    Lois Lowe: Tanev is an excellent player and that is an excellent contract.

    Find good players…

  82. Dashingsilverfox says:

    leadfarmer:
    Dashingsilverfox,

    Which is probably the contract MacT will sign Norris for in the offseason.Theverbal on some of the players from management is very different than the verbal from some of us third tier fans.

    They’re certainly a couple of players with similarities and differences.

    Both signed as free agents out of college although Schultz was drafted.

    Within 6 months in age.

    Biggest difference is that Tanev spent more than 100 games in the AHL before making the jump to full time employment in the NHL.

  83. Klima's_Bucket says:

    jbfuzz,

    I can’t speak for Smith but Schultz isn’t fit to hold Gudbranson’s jockstrap.

  84. PhrankLee says:

    Lois Lowe,

    I’ll say. It highlights the evaluation weaknesses at the executive level.

    Vancouver just signed their own Jeff Petry.

  85. djs says:

    Anyone remember what the journalists/reporters said when Craig called Jultz a dman with Norris potential? Did anyone even raise an eyebrow?

    Why oh why is there SUCH a disconnect between Craig and everyone else? Thoughts? Ideas? Explanations? Bueller?

  86. Dicky94 says:

    leadfarmer,

    Hopefully only one year though. Really hope him and Nikkitin are gone next year though. I don’t think I can handle another winter watching those two. My four year old is learning bad words from me during Oil games. Will only get worse.

  87. Dashingsilverfox says:

    PhrankLee:
    Lois Lowe,

    I’ll say. It highlights the evaluation weaknesses at the executive level.

    Vancouver just signed their own Jeff Petry.

    That’s a pretty good comparison although Petry is a couple of years older.

    If MacT had signed Petry to a 5 year deal 2 years ago he likely would be earning about $3.5 – $4M and been one hell of a bargain.

  88. Ca$h-Money! says:

    Dicky94:
    leadfarmer,

    Hopefully only one year though. Really hope him and Nikkitin are gone next year though. I don’t think I can handle another winter watching those two. My four year old is learning bad words from me during Oil games. Will only get worse.

    Glad to know I’m not the only one. I’ve caught my 4 year old on his monitor yelling at Scrivens during his sleep. Admittedly it was funny, but it made me think about my own behavior for sure.

    But still

    “get back in your net!” and
    “ah Scrivens you’re the worst!”

    were pretty funny coming in over the monitor.

  89. godot10 says:

    Stud Muffin:
    3rd overall and something for OEL

    Don Maloney here. Something is Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (AND the 3rd/4th OV).

    Shea Weber is a bargain for Nashville moving forward. With Renne, Weber, and Jones, they can contend for the next five years. Weber helps them get to the cap floor. Almost all of the pain of the Weber contract is in the rear view mirror. They have Josi on a deep value contract, and control of Jones for 5 more years. They aren’t going to mess up that foundation for contending. (And the vast majority of the blogosphere is still opposed to drafting a potential franchise D high. #JustSayNoah.)

    Tanev got $4.5 million per season which included 2RFA years and only 3 UFA years. Petry is worth $5.5 million per season. Sekera will get $6 million.

  90. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Does anyone know who in the CHL holds Noah Hanifin’s rights?

  91. stevezie says:

    godot10,

    Not often I get to say this, but I’m with Godot. It looks to me like they have every motivation not to trade Weber.
    I also think the reasons it makes sense for us to move the 3rd for OEL are the reasons it makes sense for PHX to keep him. But sure, make the call! I’ve heard it said OEL had an off season, maybe you’ll catch Maloney drunk?

    Just to be retain my contrarian reputation I’ll say that I think you are underestimating the stagnant cap and I don’t see Petry or Sekera getting that much, but I’m wrong every day so who knows?

  92. godot10 says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    Does anyone know who in the CHL holds Noah Hanifin’s rights?

    You don’t have to send Hanifan to the CHL. You send him straight to the AHL, and pair him with Nurse for 40 games, and bring them both up next February.

  93. Rational Zealot says:

    Woodguy,

    Regarding your questions from yesterday:

    Because the relationship between QoT and QoC and shots isn’t the same across all populations it’s hard to say which has the larger effect because its hard to measure the effect at ll. That said, the range of value in QoT is much larger than QoC and hence it is very, very, likely that QoT matters much more than QoC. This makes sense. Everybody plays against everybody, but everybody does not play with everybody. Since the delta between QoC and QoT is about 4x, all other things being equal, QoT is 4x more important than QoC.

    Regarding omitting the first 12 or 18 seconds after an offensive zone draw to control for zone starts; this method doesn’t work. It presupposes that the zone start effect is equal for all players. However, we know this isn’t true, otherwise there would be no reason to give some players zone start specific usage. To take one example. A good defensive center who is good at winning faceoffs is going to be more effective in the first 12 or 18 seconds after a defensive zone draw than, say, Sam Gagner. If you ignore those seconds you are, in effect, ignoring the difference between Boyd Gordon and Sam Gagner which would systematically favour the Sam Gagner’s of the world.

    The better way is to apply a general adjustment. That way players who beat that adjustment (like Boyd Gordon) will be appropriately valued.

  94. kinger_OIL says:

    Staples on EJ says that “Cool-Hand” Justin Shultz is one of the best D we have had in last 20 years, he’s got some contribution to scoring data to support this. Of course Linus was the #2 on that list. Staples says sign Shultz long-term. I suspect he will be signed long-term.

  95. Clay says:

    djs:
    Anyone remember what the journalists/reporters said when Craig called Jultz a dman with Norris potential? Did anyone even raise an eyebrow?

    Why oh why is there SUCH a disconnect between Craig and everyone else? Thoughts? Ideas? Explanations? Bueller?

    MacT has been told by Batman, in no uncertain terms, that they are not to sniff the playoffs until the new building is ready.

    Would explain A. FRIGGING. SHIT-TON.

  96. godot10 says:

    stevezie:
    godot10,

    Just to be retain my contrarian reputation I’ll say that I think you are underestimating the stagnant cap and I don’t see Petry or Sekera getting that much, but I’m wrong every day so who knows?

    Tanev’s UFA years effectively are over $5 million per season, with 2 RFA years in a 5 X $4.45 contract.)

    I would pursue Phaneuf. Schultz plus Pittsburgh’s pick. Run Klefbom and Phaneuf the way they plan to run Klefbom and Schultz. Bury Marincin and Fayne with DZ starts. And hide Ference and Nikitin on the 3rd pairing until Nurse and Hanifan are ready in the new year.

  97. Rational Zealot says:

    stevezie,

    Agreed. In real money, Weber costs Nashville less than he would cost any other team in the league. It makes no sense for them to trade him.

    Conversely, that trade would also be a bad one for the Oilers.

    It’s a brilliant lose-lose trade.

  98. leadfarmer says:

    godot10,

    I could see them trading one of those defensemen for a center. They’re doing the center by committee thing, but I’m sure they would like to get an upgrade on the position. It would have to be a good center though.

  99. stevezie says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Biggest difference is that Tanev spent more than 100 games in the AHL before making the jump to full time employment in the NHL.

    Is this solely an indictment of development, or a cause for a sliver of hope for the kid?

    Even on the development side, is there a team in the league that would have kept a guy with those AHL point totals in the farm? The insanity wasn’t playing him in the show, it was the idea that he was an out-of-the-box top pairing guy. Or second pairing guy.

    I think most teams would at least try him on their third with a vet.

  100. Rational Zealot says:

    kinger_OIL:
    Staples on EJ says that “Cool-Hand” Justin Shultz is one of the best D we have had in last 20 years, he’s got some contribution to scoring data to support this.Of course Linus was the #2 on that list.Staples says sign Shultz long-term.I suspect he will be signed long-term.

    I’m conflicted. On the one hand, I loved Omark with an irrational fervour.

    On the other, the next time Staples is right (about anything–I’m serious his views outside of hockey are even more ignorant than on hockey) will be the first.

  101. stevezie says:

    godot10: I would pursue Phaneuf.

    So would I, to my surprise (he seems like a dork and I’m not a professional so I’m allowed to factor that in). But I don’t think it would take that much. Even if his bridges in that town weren’t burning Toronto is in rebuild mode and that contract looks bad on a good team. We’re a desperate team. I think we could get it by taking it.
    As soon as Phaneuf is on a team that allows him to be a second pairing guy he is going to look good again. We’re not that team, but God knows he would still improve us.

    Rational Zealot: It’s a brilliant lose-lose trade.

    You’ve sold me. Let’s do it.

    Clay: Would explain A. FRIGGING. SHIT-TON.

    So would invisible elves whispering bad advice into my ear. And just like the elves, that theory would raise further, even harder to answer questions.

  102. Dashingsilverfox says:

    stevezie: Is this solely an indictment of development, or a cause for a sliver of hope for the kid?

    Even on the development side, is there a team in the league that would have kept a guy with those AHL point totals in the farm? The insanity wasn’t playing him in the show, it was the idea that he was an out-of-the-box top pairing guy. Or second pairing guy.

    I think most teams would at least try him on their third with a vet.

    I think the real issue is that the Oilers guaranteed Schultz NHL playing time in order get him to sign.

  103. kooler says:

    Klima's_Bucket,

    not a horrible idea….Its worth a shot.

    I cant remeber if the Phillip Larsen experiement was that bad, he was quick, good with the puck and inherently came back on defense. i wish we would of kept him there for a few more games.

    Jshultz then becomes a utility 7 incase someone goes down. He doesn’t like blocking shots or taking the body so move him up for a game or two. Bring up Oestrele or Davidson.

  104. jbfuzz says:

    Klima’s_Bucket,

    I have little experience seeing Gudbranson, but I’m just floating ideas out there. I think they might have one last offseason to get value in a Jultz trade. If he shits the bed again, it’ll be draft picks.

  105. Rebuilder says:

    On Schultz by my my eye test, the last dozen or so games, I have seen large sections of play where Ebs/RNH/Pou with Klef/Shultz play as a five man unit. Ebs brings the puck high in the middle, Shultz activates down the boards for a pass, Nuge is moving into support him from behind the net, and Klef snuck down for a backside play while Pou is covering the point, etc. That kind of chemisty cannot be overlooked. I have seen many extended offensive sequences with the five of them, and it was very difficult to defend. if we keep them all next year, they can continue to work on recongition and timing and become even more dangerous.

    We talk aobut consitency of coachiing but consitency of linemates is important as well. The Sedins are exhibit A when great players develop chemisty. That seemed to be the problem with Yak, nobody until Roy knew where he was going to be.

    So in conclusion, chemistry brings confidnece, confidence brings consistency and consitency brings championships. Let them play.

  106. Braden28 says:

    It’s sad to say, but Nikitin ins’t going anywhere next year. MacT is stubborn AND had this to say at the time of the Nikitin signing:

    “The term was attractive to both the player and us. It buys time for us to develop our young defencemen appropriately, whether that’s sending them back to junior if they’re not ready or putting them in the American Hockey League.”

    Marry this to recent comments and you realize Niki is back next year.

    MacT is starting to learn that kids don’t develop well in the NHL and I admire him for that. Klembom arrived when he was ready, and Nurse will do the same.

    He clearly sees the future D already in the system… there’s no help coming.

    Le sigh….

  107. vinotintazo says:

    Braden28,

    Klefbom-Schultz
    Marincin-Fayne
    Ference-Nikitin
    Davidson

    this is next year’s blueline… book it.

    by the trade deadline, you will see Nurse replace Nikitin.

    Yeah next year is going to suck.

  108. djs says:

    Rebuilder,

    The Oilers are hilariously consistent at being hilarious and they’re not winning any championships!
    😀

  109. Tanking for Noah Hanifin; Carolina's brighter future (Puck Headlines) | Wolrd Blogs says:

    […] • How are the Oilers using their defensemen of late under coach Todd Nelson. [Lowetide] […]

  110. A'bunadh says:

    kinger_OIL:
    Staples on EJ says that “Cool-Hand” Justin Shultz is one of the best D we have had in last 20 years, he’s got some contribution to scoring data to support this.Of course Linus was the #2 on that list.Staples says sign Shultz long-term.I suspect he will be signed long-term.

    Staples scoring chance data is so subjective I think it’s pretty irrelevant. If Nuge loses a draw in the Dzone, Jultz gets possession and has time to move it out but turns it over right in front of his net for a scoring chance against, Nuge gets charged a mistake on scoring chance against the same as Jultz. On the flipside, if Jultz plays the puck in his own zone and four more Oilers touch the puck before we generate a scoring chance, he will credit Jultz with a contribution on a scoring chance. I’ve looked over a ton of Staples data and quite often I feel Jultz isn’t credited a mistake on the same type of play that Marincin would have been, and the reverse true on the contributions. Totally subjective on what constitutes a contribution or a mistake and skewed by your thoughts of the players involved. Not Staples fault, just human nature.. I know I don’t give Jultz credit for some decent things he does because of my overall opinion of Jultz.
    I suggested to him to award a total of 1 point for each scoring chance and mistake. If only one player made the play to create a scoring chance, he’s allotted a 1. If 5 players contributed to a scoring chance, they are each allotted 0.20 for a total of 1. Surely a player that steals the puck on his own to create a breakaway should be rewarded more than the player who touched the puck 5 times previous to a scoring chance but in Staples data that isn’t the case.

  111. flyfish1168 says:

    Two of the top UFA this summer maybe ex-Oilers. Dubnyk and Petry. I do believe they would make our team better. This would make MacT swallow his pride.

  112. LadiesloveSmid says:

    http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/blackhawks/post/_/id/4688075/hawks-prospect-paliotta-negotiating-contract

    Michael Paliotta has some strong boxcars in college(36P in 41 this year), 6’3 right shot D could turn UFA being scared off by Chicago’s right shot prospect depth. Had to giveaway Clendening because of it. Trevor Van Riemsdyk, Ville Pokka, Stephen Johns to jump in that system. 0 right shot D prospects to jump in Edmonton’s system. Plz MacT

  113. Alpine says:

    A'bunadh,

    Staples neilson numbers are to me, sort of useful as a means of context. Problem is, Staples himself treats them as gospel in the same way he thinks Corsi men do. Which usually leads to him delivering a somewhat self serving rants in which he castrates the analytics community while trying to push his own analytics. Dave seems like a decent individual, but he too often misrepresents the value of Corsilytics in a way that appeals to the skeptics, which really doesn’t advance discourse of the matter in whatever circle he’s involved with. As I believe him someone to have value as a sort of centrist of hockey analysis, himself providing a balance of traditional and new age analysis, I find his often crusader-like stance towards more prominent analyticists quite unhelpful.

  114. sliderule says:

    The oilers have dropped their sog against from 32.9 to 29.7 in one season.They now sit 16th for that stat.

    This should be a sign of better defensive play from the team and a big part of this has to be the defence.

    Are we being too critical of the defence?

    The islanders over three seasons dropped their sog against from 33.5 to 28.0 and made the playoffs After that they popped up to 30.0 missed the playoff and added a D and a good goalie.

    This season their sog has dropped to 28.0 and they are one of top teams.

    The kicker is that they are one of the best offensive teams and we would need to win the lottery to say same.

  115. Braden28 says:

    vinotintazo:
    Braden28,

    Klefbom-Schultz
    Marincin-Fayne
    Ference-Nikitin
    Davidson

    this is next year’s blueline… book it.

    by the trade deadline, you will see Nurse replace Nikitin.

    Yeah next year is going to suck.

    I think you’ve nailed it. We can all hope for more, but there’s currently no reason for this optimism.

  116. A'bunadh says:

    Alpine:
    A’bunadh,

    Staples neilson numbers are to me, sort of useful as a means of context. Problem is, Staples himself treats them as gospel in the same way he thinks Corsi men do. Which usually leads to him delivering a somewhat self serving rants in which he castrates the analytics community while trying to push his own analytics. Dave seems like a decent individual, but he too often misrepresents the value of Corsilytics in a way that appeals to the skeptics, which really doesn’t advance discourse of the matter in whatever circle he’s involved with. As I believe him someone to have value as a sort of centrist of hockey analysis, himself providing a balance of traditional and new age analysis, I find his often crusader-like stance towards more prominent analyticists quite unhelpful.

    I agree on all points. Good guy but not openminded when it comes to questioning his data or how he arrives at it. Contributions/mistakes on scoring chances are extremely subjective. It’s not like counting shots. He sets the criteria regarding the scoring chances and what a contribution or mistake is.. He’s stated that no missed shots are scoring chances but when I questioned a player missing the net on a breakaway he replied well of course that’s a scoring chance. Seems to wing it but yet pass it off as extremely cut and dried analytics when it’s not.

  117. vinotintazo says:

    Braden28,

    The only good thing I see after next year is that, Schultz would be close to 300 NHL games, so that Mngmnt decides what to do with him, Marincin around 150, Klef around 130 Fayne around 400.

    Still hoping we get Top pairing guy on his prime with around 600 NHL Games… ASAP..

  118. G Money says:

    A'bunadh: Staples scoring chance data is so subjective I think it’s pretty irrelevant.

    This is a dangerous statement to make. Measured data that is subjective is not useless (if you believe that, try telling that to your doctor at your next checkup).

    There is a large and venerable area of study in the decision and measurement sciences (starting with Eratosthenes estimation, Fermi problems and decompositions, the Lens method, and on …) that shows the remarkable ability of human beings to estimate and measure with surprising accuracy the seemingly unmeasureable and unestimable.

    Staples and co. do all the right things to ensure as much value out of their scoring chance measures as they can: formally defining their terms, using multiple estimators, and publishing their results.

    I think the scoring chance data they produce over at CoH is a highly valuable contribution to the hockey stats world. Just as I’ve never understood why those who want to understand the game better would toss away the analytical tools developed over years, I also don’t understand why anyone would toss away carefully considered and gathered information such as the Neilsen numbers and scoring chance data.

    Or does anyone here think that Roger Neilsen was a dumbass who didn’t really understand hockey?

    Staples is a bit of dumbass in that he’s hopelessly biased about his own statistic, he doesn’t really understand Corsi, and as a result he doesn’t seem to get that the flaws he assigns to Corsi apply in equal measure to his own statistics.

    That doesn’t take away from their value.

  119. Rational Zealot says:

    A’bunadh,

    What you have to remember is that Staples has no idea what he is talking about. It’s not just that he isn’t open-minded but that he isn’t open-minded because he doesn’t understand the criticisms that are being made. He’s wading in waters that are too deep for him.

    This is true about everything he does. He has strong opinions about education but everything he says about education demonstrates he doesn’t understand the issues. He’s ignorant in the technical sense; he doesn’t understand even his own side of the debates.

    He’s a classic example of how a little education is worse than no education.

  120. Rational Zealot says:

    G Money,

    You are right about many things but you are very, very, wrong about Staples. His data is useless as I, and many others, have demonstrated over and over again.

    I don’t want to rehash these things for the millionth time but the problem isn’t really that his data is subjective. I mean sure it is subjective, but that’s not the real problem. The problem is that the model doesn’t work such that even if the data collection wasn’t subjective the data would still be useless.

  121. Rational Zealot says:

    Fine, I’ll bite. Two quick problems.

    1) It’s impossible to count scoring chances because there is no way to separate the result of the chance from the counting of the chance. This is not a subjectivity problem (i.e. a problem of measurement), it is a theoretical problem.

    2) Even if it were possible to count scoring chances (it isn’t) the Staples method arbitrarily abstracts the moment of the scoring chance from everything else that led to the scoring chance. This discounts 90% of what actually happens in a game as meaningless. This isn’t a subjectivity problem either. It is a theoretical problem.

    3) Finally, even if these two things weren’t true (they are) there is no baseline measure against which the scoring chance data might be evaluated. So you get numbers but these numbers are without context.

    4) And all that is without saying anything about the absurd false precision with which the data is presented.

    It’s a giant mess, a road that leads nowhere.

  122. G Money says:

    Rational Zealot,

    Yes, I think we’ve had this discussion before.

    And you are very, very, very wrong!

    The fact that you assign a model as ‘wrong’ is perhaps the starting point for being wrong.

    No model is right. In fact, they’re all wrong in that none of them, not one, is a perfect representation of the real world.

    The question at hand for every model (and every associated measurement) is: does it add meaningful value to the understanding of the issue at hand?

    This is what the critics of Corsi and the like never get. They perseverate over the flaws (some real, some perceived), without ever understanding that a model is intended to provide additional understanding. Corsi is not perfect. Sometimes it is dead ass wrong. But in the big picture, it provides a ton of additional and useful information. Therefore it is good.

    If you think that having knowledgeable observers (which I very much believe Staples, Willis, and McCurdy to be) using a model developed originally by Roger Neilsen (who I very much believe to have understood the game of hockey) do not add value to your understanding of the game … I do not think the error lies with the model or the measurements.

  123. blainer says:

    G Money:
    Re: Jultz.

    Remember when he was paired with Nultz?

    Remember how incompetent we knew Nultz to be?

    Notice how, on a team with a poor (but still much better than Edmonton’s) defense, Nultz once again looks like a capable 2nd/3rd pairing guy, just as he was when we acquired him?

    The quality of a player is really difficult to separate from context.

    The problem is that the context for any one of Nikitin, Ference, and Schultz in particular pretty much always includes ONE OF THE OTHER TWO GUYS.

    We can keep one of those three, pair them with a capable NHL quality defender, put them in the context of four more NHL quality defenders, and (like Nultz) they would likely be OK.

    ONE of those three.Not THREE of those three.

    Of those three, I would keep Jultz simply because he is young(est) and has some valuable skills, and (as much as the eye hates him), objectively when he’s on the ice, the puck is moving in the right direction more often than not.

    In other words – there is hope, however slight.

    There is no such hope with Nikitin and Ference.

    They both must go in order for the ship to start righting itself.

    Of course … we all know that’s not going to happen right?

    How ’bout that Auston Mathews!

    Actually the way I see this playing out with MacT is … NN will be bought out due to his barking back about his conditioning or lack thereof.. I believe MacT is trying to keep the peace for the rest of the season and will be reminded of how awful this D is for the rest of the year as we play WC teams.. I know his verbal is he plans on keeping the D for next year but I will wait until August to judge him. If he doesn’t fix the D and goaltending he will be gone just like Eakins.

  124. frjohnk says:

    Rebuilder:
    On Schultz by my my eye test, the last dozen or so games, I have seen large sections of play where Ebs/RNH/Pou with Klef/Shultz play as a five man unit.Ebs brings the puck high in the middle, Shultz activates down the boards for a pass, Nuge is moving into support him from behind the net, and Klef snuck down for a backside play while Pou is covering the point, etc.That kind of chemisty cannot be overlooked.I have seen many extended offensive sequences with the five of them, and it was very difficult to defend.if we keep them all next year, they can continue to work on recongition and timing and become even more dangerous.

    We talk aobut consitency of coachiing but consitency of linemates is important as well.The Sedins are exhibit A when great players develop chemisty.That seemed to be the problem with Yak, nobody until Roy knew where he was going to be.

    So in conclusion, chemistry brings confidnece, confidence brings consistency and consitency brings championships.Let them play.

    This 5 man unit has played 97 minutes 5 on 5, and you are right, the chemistry they display in the O zone is extremely good. This 5 man unit can cause tire fires for the other team. They have a CF% of 54.7%.

    92 minutes of Schultz Klefbom with Roy and Yak ( adding another forward just drives down TOI)gives you a CF% of 55%.

    Many on here, including myself have been harsh on Schultz and for the most part deservingly so, but in the right position, this guy has really good value. 3rd pairing with offensive players in the Ozone and I would expect his numbers to climb.

    If you want to see an absolute tire fire on our side, just put Yak and Roy with Ference on the D. They have played 132 minutes together and they have a CF% of 39%.

    Another tire fire? Swap Nikitin with Ference and you get 45 minutes with a CF% of 34% with those two forwards.

    Yes, sample sizes with Nikitin and Ference have fewer O zone starts but what I am saying is that Schultz is a better offensively player than Nikitin and Ference are defensively.

    We could say that Nikitin, Ference and Schultz are 3 boat anchors, but if we could cut rope on two boat anchors ( Ference and Nikitin) and add a bunch of floatation devices ( like Ozone starts with offensive players) to the other anchor, our back end will not be so suspect. If we can replace with decent d men that is.

    Schultz brings more value to the team than those other two.

    We will have trouble turning north with all 3 of them on the D next year, but if we have to have one, its Schultz and put into an offensive role he has good value.

  125. G Money says:

    Rational Zealot,

    I do not think you understand the methodology. That might be where the problem lies. (just as it is with those who reflexively deny the value of Corsi)

  126. Lowetide says:

    Rational Zealot:
    G Money,

    You are right about many things but you are very, very, wrong about Staples.His data is useless as I, and many others, have demonstrated over and over again.

    I don’t want to rehash these things for the millionth time but the problem isn’t really that his data is subjective.I mean sure it is subjective, but that’s not the real problem. The problem is that the model doesn’t work such that even if the data collection wasn’t subjective the data would still be useless.

    The sad part is that David’s work DOES have value. His scoring chance count is accurate enough that we can safely use it and never worry. The attachment of fault or credit is the problem, it would be far better to just track who is on the ice at the time.

    I like David. He was a friend to blogs when no one was paying attention. I am/was bewildered by his tweets last night and this morning in regard to Eberle and various bloggers pegging him. It’s not an issue worth pursuing because I don’t think there’s much chance of a conclusion.

    Sadly, we have chosen our views and there does not seem to be room for compromise. I remain convinced the journey is that exactly, and try to be mindful that all of these metrics are imperfect and forever shall be.

    As is often with people, it’s complicated.

  127. book¡je says:

    G Money:
    Rational Zealot,

    No model is right.In fact, they’re all wrong in that none of them, not one, is a perfect representation of the real world.

    By some theories, even the real world is not really a perfect representation of the real world.

    Bostrom presents an argument that there is a good chance that we all live in a simulation (http://www.simulation-argument.com/simulation.html) with the final conclusion “Unless we are now living in a simulation, our descendants will almost certainly never run an ancestor-simulation”.

    For the record, in recent years some physicists and mathematicians are seeking evidence to determine if we do or do not live in a simulation.

    If at some point, they do find that we are in a simulation, I suggest we all collectivly get together and chant “We are here, fix the Oilers. We are here, fix the Oilers!!”

    .

  128. G Money says:

    book¡je,

    This makes a lot of sense to me: the Oilers are in fact a simulation of an NHL team. It explains a lot!

  129. Rational Zealot says:

    G Money,

    One of these days you’ll respond to the criticisms and we’ll be able to move forward. Right now one of us is firmly in the dark.

    Lowetide,

    Assigning credit/blame based upon who is on the ice would deal with problem #2 nicely.

  130. TheOtherJohn says:

    Was not aware that McCurdy or Willis have anything to do with Neilson number scoring chamces. If they did, I know I would respect the process more. Both are respected hockey observers/commentators.

    If Staples numbers suggest Schultz is an above average defender, his process leaves an awful lot to be desired. Which was my opinion before his latest comment on Schultz’s value.

  131. Rational Zealot says:

    For instance, the problem is not that the model is an imperfect representation of reality. The problem is that it is an arbitrary representation of reality.

  132. A'bunadh says:

    Lowetide: The sad part is that David’s work DOES have value. His scoring chance count is accurate enough that we can safely use it and never worry. The attachment of fault or credit is the problem, it would be far better to just track who is on the ice at the time.

    I like David. He was a friend to blogs when no one was paying attention. I am/was bewildered by his tweets last night and this morning in regard to Eberle and various bloggers pegging him. It’s not an issue worth pursuing because I don’t think there’s much chance of a conclusion.

    Sadly, we have chosen our views and there does not seem to be room for compromise. I remain convinced the journey is that exactly, and try to be mindful that all of these metrics are imperfect and forever shall be.

    As is often with people, it’s complicated.

    That is my big issue with his data too. What is the criteria for a contribution or a mistake? When I go through his data after a game there is a high % of it I disagree regarding his allotment, and change his data even 10% one way or another and your best player now is your worst. Way too subjective to be relied upon IMO.

  133. Lowetide says:

    Rational Zealot:
    G Money,

    One of these days you’ll respond to the criticisms and we’ll be able to move forward. Right now one of us is firmly in the dark.

    Lowetide,

    Assigning credit/blame based upon who is on the ice would deal with problem #2 nicely.

    The problem is bias. I think you might be able to have a metric that assigns blame/credit based on having five people score each game and then assigning based on the most common credit. Otherwise, it’s a matter of bias and we all have it.

  134. G Money says:

    Lowetide: His scoring chance count is accurate enough that we can safely use it and never worry. The attachment of fault or credit is the problem, it would be far better to just track who is on the ice at the time.

    Here’s the funny thing: I think that part of it has value as well.

    (I sometimes wonder if I”m the only heavy-stats guy who acknowledges value in both Staples’ work and in the related, venerable, and deeply flawed +-).

    The traditional +- that is the kicking off point for Neilsen numbers is where I start. It’s been suggested that something like 40% of the allocations of plusses and minuses are undeserved. Some have used this to write off the value of the +- altogether.

    This is not a correct conclusion. What it means is that +- is a very very noisy statistic. What’s the cure for noise? Sample size. So +- over a single game or a stretch of games gives almost no useful information. But by a full season, it does have some value. As it does over a career. The signal has poked out of the the noise by then.

    The Neilsen numbers, if they did nothing more than take the traditional plus minus and let a knowledgeable observer remove the + or – from those they deem not involved in the play, you improve the statistic. The primary risk (systemic observer bias) goes down more still if you use multiple observers, as they do.

    The end result is a +- statistic with far less noise to it. More accurate sooner with fewer samples needed.

    The scoring chance data goes one step further – instead of applying that methodology only to goals, the scope of the metric is expanded to include ‘chances’.

    While this is again subject to bias (not everyone will agree on what is or isn’t a chance), the only way to claim it has ‘no value’ is if you could get a number of observers together to estimate scoring chances and have NO agreement between those observers results.

    To suggest that is ridiculous. Hockey is not such a complicated game.

    At the margins, there will be differences. For most chances, the agreement between observers will be high. And if that’s the case, you then have a statistic that carries valuable information with it. Despite the subjectivity. And despite the disagreement at the margins.

  135. Rational Zealot says:

    G Money,

    And yet you have someone in this very thread who has done that very thing and the result is to turn the best player into the worst player.

    I came to this conclusion the same way. I tried to count scoring chances and couldn’t. I couldn’t come up with a criteria that agreed with myself, let alone with someone else. There is no way to not make the data arbitrary.

  136. G Money says:

    Rational Zealot: One of these days you’ll respond to the criticisms and we’ll be able to move forward. Right now one of us is firmly in the dark.

    I think I have. The issue is not that you’re in the dark – it’s that you’re applying a bizarrely unrealistic standard of measurement, one which if you wanted to get pedantic about it, NO statistic we have would actually satisfy.

    Here in the real world, and in the formal realm of measurement science, a measurement has value if it is based on one or more observations, can be quantitatively expressed, and provides a reduction in uncertainty as to the process being assessed.

    The CoH scoring chance does exactly that, bias and uncertainty and all.

  137. Rational Zealot says:

    Bias or subjectivity or whatever you would like to call it is only a problem because of the underlying problem of arbitrariness.

    If a scoring chance wasn’t essentially arbitary, bias would be a much smaller problem.

    And this problem can’t be resolved by careful definition. The more precisely you define scoring chances the more arbitrary the definition. The looser you define a scoring chance the more you are dependent on individual judgement. (The same is true about rights by the way.). It’s a problem of principle not practice.

  138. Unicorns says:

    I would much rather see cap space cleared and overpays for reasonable UFA than a trade involving a top young player for anyone over 26. Unless they are getting the anchor of the future which frees up trading a prospect D to fill that hole it’s all lateral or backward. They have to learn to move the thing forward. The team trading the young guy is the guy getting worked old timey Habs style.

    It’s like a panic move. If they’ve gone done this road this long, to lose clarity and resolve now would be the greatest tragedy of it all. Give up no core young asset for anything but a long term core asset moving from a position of strength to weakness.

    Anything else is a loss and those spots can be filled with competent less glamorous players if they would listen to Dellow and learn to spot them like the good teams typically can, which is why they are good. There are enough capable guys around to patch up the Oilers and make them push for playoffs until others mature. Challenging can come then, but for now throw us a bone.

    There is no way to win Hall for Weber because of the ages. Hall for 24 year old Weber, maybe. Weber’s big and not incompetent, but I’m not sure he’s much better than Neon Dion, Suter was the driver. I don’t think the Oilers are better of with anything but a 2 way guy that can play toughs, carry a lesser partner and not drown. PETRY aggghhhhh!

  139. G Money says:

    Rational Zealot: And yet you have someone in this very thread who has done that very thing and the result is to turn the best player into the worst player.

    Do you actually believe this to be the case, or is it just simply the post facto statement of someone trying to make a point? “Moved the data 10% and the best player became worst”? Bullshit.

    Most of the people who disagree with the scoring chance data that I’ve heard do it for the same reasons they disagree with Corsi – because it produces a result that isn’t in line with their untracked 100% biased conclusions about a game. “Petry is too soft!”

    I’d be very curious to see the data you say you tracked and whether it really failed to match the CoH numbers. Did you really try, or just say you did? It’s hockey. It’s not that complicated.

    Hell, I’ve tracked even more subtle stuff, like “defensive contributions”, which are even harder to define and even more subjective. (Specifically on Petry) The data that came out of it was both interesting and useful anyway (for my purposes).

  140. godot10 says:

    There is no indicator that is the Holy Grail of indicators.

    There are multiple indicators. One should look for indicators to confirm one another in the positive or negative sense. An isolated positive indicator in a sea of negative indicators is likely a false positive (unless it is a leading indicator, but there is no proof that any indicator is a leading indicator at this point). So wait awhile and see if other indicators begin to confirm or non-confirm.

    All information is useful.

  141. Rational Zealot says:

    G Money,

    But that is just it, if the data actively distorts reality then reducing uncertainty isn’t a good thing. It will lead you to false conclusions, conclusions you should be less certain of, not more.

  142. Pouzar says:

    Cam Fowler a healthy scratch tonight.
    Get on it MacT. Trading for CF and drafting Hanifin can go a long way in stocking the cupboards.

  143. G Money says:

    Rational Zealot: If a scoring chance wasn’t essentially arbitary, bias would be a much smaller problem.

    What’s your opinion then on the war-on-ice definition of a dangerous chance (“shots from the arrow”)?

    What about my version of dangerous scoring chances (shots from 2×2 ft locations on ice where for the specific shot type the sh% is higher than one stdev from the mean sh% for all shots)?

    Despite the appearance of rigour, these are essentially arbitrary. “Why 2×2? Why one stdev? Why the arrow?”

    Yet, surprisingly for all that bothersome arbitrariness, I think there is value in having that number (% of shots from those areas). They tell you more about the game situation than you had before you started.

    So do the Staples numbers.

  144. Rational Zealot says:

    godot10:
    There is no indicator that is the Holy Grail of indicators.

    There are multiple indicators.One should look for indicators to confirm one another in the positive or negative sense.An isolated positive indicator in a sea of negative indicators is likely a false positive (unless it is a leading indicator, but there is no proof that any indicator is a leading indicator at this point).So wait awhile and see if other indicators begin to confirm or non-confirm.

    All information is useful.

    This sounds nice, but it isn’t true. There has to be criteria to distinguish between competing claims. If you have no criteria for distinguishing amongst information then how are you supposed to decide which information you are going to believe?

    The data can’t tell you, because the problem is competing data. (This by the way is what is wrong with the supposed big data revolution).

  145. GCW_69 says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    Was not aware that McCurdy or Willis have anythingto do with Neilson number scoring chamces. If they did, I know I would respect the process more. Both are respected hockey observers/commentators.

    If Staples numbers suggest Schultz is an above average defender, his process leaves an awful lot to be desired. Which was my opinion before his latest comment on Schultz’s value.

    His data suggest Schultz is an above average generator of offence as far as defenceman go. No where does he state Schultz is an above average defender. They are not the same thing at all.

  146. G Money says:

    Rational Zealot:
    G Money,

    But that is just it, if the data actively distorts reality then reducing uncertainty isn’t a good thing.It will lead you to false conclusions, conclusions you should be less certain of, not more.

    Staples has taken the time and effort to try and define formally what his version of a scoring chance is.

    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2012/09/04/frequently-asked-questions-on-neilson-numbers/

    You may not agree with it, but in some ways that doesn’t matter – he’s given you the standard that defines his numbers.

    If your definition is more stringent, then you can safely assume that his numbers provide an upper bound for yours. This is valuable.

    If your definition is less stringent, then you can safely assume that his numbers provide a lower bound for yours. This is valuable.

    If you think his definition has NO value at all, then you’ll have to explain why. Though my definition is not the same, I have no issue with his definition. He’s gone to the trouble of explaining it, and I can then factor that into my interpretation of his results.

    If you think it is impossible for a human observer to provide a reasonable measure of those chances based on the defined criteria, then we’ll have to agree to disagree. It’s hockey. It’s not that complicated.

  147. frjohnk says:

    Rational Zealot: The data can’t tell you, because the problem is competing data. (This by the way is what is wrong with the supposed big data revolution).

    So you believe all advanced stats are garbage?

    or do you believe certain advanced stats have some merit? If so, which ones?

  148. Rational Zealot says:

    frjohnk,

    If you’ve been paying attention, you would know the answer to this already. The only garbage stat is the Staples number.

    As for the rest, I need to make supper.

  149. G Money says:

    Random measurement fact: there is a 93.75% chance that the median of a population is between the smallest and largest values in any random sample of five from the population.

    Inasmuch as we talk about the need for sample size, what is sometimes forgotten is that you can derive a MASSIVE reduction in uncertainty from a very small sample of a population.

    There’s a certain beautiful symmetry to the nature of sampling.

  150. Taro Tsujimoto says:

    If we land McDavid/Eichel, I’d try to move Draisaitl for a couple Detroit defensemen. Kronwall and DeKeyser are off-limits, but that still leaves Ericsson, Quincey, Smith, Kindl, Marchenko, Ouellet, Sproul, Jensen, Marshall, Hicketts…

  151. Rational Zealot says:

    I will say that it doesn’t help that Staples’ definition absurdly excludes shots that missed the net.

    But that only goes to the problem at hand. A scoring chance, by definition, exists independent of the result. Try putting that into practice when you always already know the result prior to your judgement of whether something was or was not a scoring chance.

    This is why the scoring chance data from Dennis and he so rarely agreed.

  152. G Money says:

    *** NERD ALERT: DATA ***

    Speaking of data, for those interested in such arcane matters, I have data updates for the detailed play by play CSV files:

    2014/2015, up to last nights games (58 MB): https://app.box.com/s/brfdrbity5bmnj7ar0l7rfs3vbit59ti

    *NEW* 2013/2014, 1200 games (65 MB): https://app.box.com/s/kye07lox3zu3vwil6tt1iee34j2nu2q7

    (Note: due to scripting errors, missing games 108, 109, 855, 971)

    *NEW* 2012/2013, 624 games (32 MB): https://app.box.com/s/gv0uqvvml8rhtkfhnsck0rw874dxqnzn

    (Note: due to format errors, missing game 578)

    I should have the 2010 and 2011 seasons within a few weeks.

  153. G Money says:

    Rational Zealot: A scoring chance, by definition, exists independent of the result. Try putting that into practice when you always already know the result prior to your judgement of whether something was or was not a scoring chance.

    That’s just your (seemingly random) definition of a scoring chance. I’ve never understood that aspect of your criticism. By that token, shouldn’t shot metrics be useless because before the shot takes place you don’t know if it will be blocked, missed, on goal, or a goal?

    So what? Like all measurements, it’s a post facto assessment of what happened.

    Staples (as does everyone else) defines a chance based on the where and what. You don’t have to agree with his methodology e.g. missed shots, but he’s put it out there for you. Exclude missed shots? Meh. Fenwick chooses to exclude blocked shots. Both are realized post facto. That affects neither the value of Corsi nor Fenwick. It simply gives you different definitions and a different context for interpretation of each of those statistics.

  154. TheOtherJohn says:

    GCW_69: His data suggest Schultz is an above average generator of offence as far as defenceman go.No where does he state Schultz is an above average defender.They are not the same thing at all.

    I assume Staples data factors in Schultz’s high % of off zone starts, best quality of linemates, poorer quality of opponents at least 1/2 of the time (at home) and accounts coupled for his HUGE TOI and 1st unit PP. If all of that is factored in, i suspect that a competent offensive defenseman would be an above average generator of offense.

  155. Well Oiled and Enthusiastic says:

    If there was ever a time to adhere to the BPA draft strategy and trade legitimate drafted assets for real team needs, its this team, at this time, in this predicament. Embrace the time of hockey trades to build true balance. Staying the course and drafting for the future now must fall to a secondary tactic to building a champion. It gets scary now….but heaven help us…hopeful. This, this is where MacT or whoever is wearing the stetson has to bring the vision and stealth to hold their own with their trading adversaries. If they fail – infinibuild.

  156. maudite says:

    Hate to bring it up, but coming quietly from corner that wanted Shultz shipped after the first year and people around here did not like that idea one bit.

    It’s easy to point and curse when the milk is well past spoiled. BUT, buying low and selling high should be repeated in lockstep with get good players keep good players.

    At present:
    Lander and Marincin should be signed to longer term value deals.

  157. GCW_69 says:

    TheOtherJohn: I assume Staples data factors in Schultz’shigh % of off zone starts, best quality of linemates, poorer quality of opponents at least 1/2 of the time (at home) and accounts coupled for his HUGE TOI and 1st unit PP. If all of that is factored in, i suspect that a competentoffensive defenseman would be an above average generator of offense.

    His premise is “So Schultz is contributing to goals this year at about the same rate as Visnovsky and Souray when they were at the top of their puck-moving games for the Oilers.”

    He also says “Of course, anyone who watches Schultz closely knows that he makes one or two stinkers on defence per game, on average. He’s got to improve his fundamental play if he’s going to become a really strong NHL d-man.”

    The focus of the article is on offence. He is compared to other offence defenders. I agree more context would be helpful in making the comparison. I also disagree with Staples conclusion that Schultz should be locked up long term. If he is unlikely to be a two way defender, I would explore a pump and dump.

    His article just gives us another lens for looking at Schultz. One that focuses on some of his strengths.

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