STARS AT OILERS, G75 2014-15

Oh, Dallas. Dallas, Dallas, Dallas. The Oilers 94+ were in no way associated with the Boys on The Bus and the Dallas Stars were the dragon in need of slaying every spring. Man, that was some kind of run for the two teams.

  • 1997: Oilers won conference QF 4-3
  • 1998: Stars won conference SF 4-1
  • 1999: Stars won conference QF 4-0
  • 2000: Stars won conference QF 4-1
  • 2001: Stars won conference QF 4-2
  • 2003: Stars won conference QF 4-2

It looks painful but believe me it was worse. The 1997 and 1998 runs were all we had for many years after the Stanley run in 1990 (and the coda springs with BOTB that followed) but looking back that Weight era was golden compared to this one. Dallas has been the better team pretty much the entire century and at this point Edmonton may never get to the playoffs again, let alone win a round. Embrace the best of the century: 2006 run and the Dallas Stars telling us to go home every spring early in the century. No wonder Oilers fans don’t love the Dallas Stars.

That has to be good news for Oilers fans. Now, the Oilers have to GET defensemen who can move the puck effectively but the chip and chase is the hockey equivalent of a pop gun. The Oilers should have a more explosive offense, this change in direction (started under Dallas Eakins) should bode well for the future.

It’s the kind of quote that sounds good but Edmonton needs actual NHL players. It’s a fine line between bringing in respected veterans and finding men with years left in the heart of their careers who can help with the important minutes in a game.

  • Jim Matheson: The Chicago Blackhawks have to decide on what to do with Brent Seabrook, who turns 30 next month, in short order because he’s UFA after next season. He makes $5 million a season now and will certainly want a raise. Some team might come at the Blackhawks at the draft offering a young defenceman and a first-round pick for Duncan Keith’s longtime partner. Source

I can see Edmonton bringing in Seabrook, absolutely. If they could get him for the Penguins pick, Marincin? Is that enough? I don’t know but suspect Edmonton would be willing to give more and take on a ghastly contract to top it off. The depth chart might look like this:

  • Klefbom—Seabrook
  • Nikitin—Fayne
  • Ference—Schultz
  • Davidson

And they can recall Nurse to play with Fayne by Christmas. Make sense? Not really but MacT has added Ference (2013) and Fayne/Nikitin (2014) in consecutive summers. Seabrook fits the bill. The big question: What do they have to pay him per season to keep him beyond one year? That might make this moot.

BETKER SIGNED, WHO’S NEXT?

The 2013 draft has given Edmonton Darnell Nurse, Bogdan Yakimov, Greg Chase and now Ben Betker as signed prospects who will have an opportunity to further their hockey careers. It’s a big deal, because if a player doesn’t get signed their choices are limited: Go back in the draft (if eligible) or sign with another team—NHL, AHL, ECHL or Europe. The CIS option is also available (and I think very valuable but that’s for another day).

There are still a bunch of CHL kids who need to sign this spring or Edmonton loses their rights. We could see them sign an entry-level deal, get traded (ala Rieder for Kessy) for a useful asset, or cast away like Jeremie Blain or any number of prospects over the years. It’s an interesting time.

draisaitl capture 1

EV NUMBERS, CHL KIDS

We don’t have TOI but we do have the boxcars and even-strength totals usually give us enough insight into these youngsters for us to make an educated guess. If a player has average EV totals and does not possess a two-way reputation, that’s a concern. Let’s have a look under the hood.

  • Leon Draisaitl 2014-15: 32GP, 10-18-28 (.875 points-per-game). The big German didn’t pout when sent back, he picked up his shovel and got to work. I’m so damn impressed by this guy. Last season’s EV numbers (64GP, 22-37-59, .922) were slightly better but Todd Cordell’s excellent work gives us a clue about  why this might happen. A wonderful prospect.
  • Greg Chase 2014-15: 61GP, 13-28-41 (.672 points-per-game). Chase had an enormous EV year in 2013-14 but this past season had some strange moments (sent home, had to wait for a trade, ended up on the coast and regained his touch). The EV numbers here are good, last year’s (70GP, 20-35-55 .786) were better. I don’t think it’s cause for alarm, for me Chase is a very promising NHL prospect. It’ll be interesting to see his scoring levels next year compared to Mitch Moroz in his rookie season in the AHL.
  • Marco Roy 2014-15: 59GP, 23-15-38 (.644 points-per-game). His reputation is as a solid two-way center/wing, so Roy’s offense gets a kick from that while also receiving a sock in the jaw due to a lack of PP time. He’s a no-brainer to sign imo, but Matty has him needing a strong playoff. Too bad, he absolutely looks like a player. It’s a good test for the Oilers though, and will tell us if they’re listening/learning and paying attention to the numbers in the right way. Roy scored 39GP, 8-16-24 .615 ppg) last season, so improved slightly year over year. A very nice prospect.
  • Darnell Nurse 2014-15: 36GP, 7-13-20 (.560 points-per-game).  A very nice spike from last season (64GP, 6-14-20 .313) especially when taking into consideration what he does aside from offense. I think his offensive potential has been overrated by some (he should produce 25-30 points a season, maybe more when he peaks) but projecting defensemen into the NHL offensively is a fool’s game.
  • Kyle Platzer 2014-15: 68GP, 19-19-38 (.560 points-per-game). Like Roy, he comes with a solid two-way reputation and added a significant power-play boost to his number last year of junior. I love players with a range of skills, this fellow could be a gem. He was 66GP, 12-11-23 (.348) a year ago, so spiked nicely at evens in his final junior season.
  • Jackson Houck 2014-15: 55GP, 13-15-28 (.509 points-per-game). Interesting follow-up season to 2013-14 (69GP, 24-17-41 .594) and one of the reasons he’s in Oklahoma City now sans entry-level deal.

I’d sign Roy, Platzer and Houck to be honest but if forced to choose only one? It would be Marco Roy. I don’t know if the Oilers are thinking the same way but they should be. We wait.

MCKENZIE ON O’CONNOR

TSN 1260 this morning with Nielson and Fraser, Bob McKenzie talked about college goaltender Matt O’Connor and Edmonton’s chances.

  • McKenzie: “As I understand it, the teams that it’s narrowed down to and at this point are the front-runners would include the Edmonton Oilers, the Ottawa Senators, the Buffalo Sabres, and surprisingly the New York Rangers. But we saw yesterday where Kyle Baun chose the Chicago Blackhawks, so don’t always discount the contending teams that have some depth because sometimes they make a good sales pitch and circumstances change. So that’s kind of where it’s at.” Source

This is important because a college goalie may mean Edmonton passes on taking a goaltender early in the draft. Perhaps Edmonton takes Noah Hanifin at No. 3, Jansen Harkins at No. 22 and are considering MacKenzie Blackwood at No. 33 but Jake DeBrusk is still available. That college goalie may give them cover.

BOHOLOGO UPDATES ON SLEPYSHEV

Anton Slepyshev Watch Update: yesterday in Sport Express he said he’s not thinking about signing in Edmonton right now:

  • Q: Никита Сошников уехал в НХЛ, подписав контракт с “Торонто”. У вас есть такая цель, вы ведь “Эдмонтоном” задрафтованы.
    A: Я пока об этом не думаю. Сейчас нахожусь в сборной, и все мысли только о ней.
  • Q: Nikita Soshnikov went to the NHL, he signed a contract with Toronto. Edmonton drafted you, do you have such a goal?
    A: I am not thinking about that. Now I’m with the team, and that’s all I’m thinking about.

So, he’s not saying no, he’s saying not right now. Admirable focus on his current responsibilities. Article is here.

All above from Bohologo. He and I go back (I think) forever so that’s a solid item there. Of all the kids not yet signed from the 2013 draft, I’d put Slepyshev at the top of the list, then Roy, then Platzer, then Houck. Will Edmonton sign all of them? I don’t think they will.

BLUNT GIF

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

Lowdown at 10 this morning, TSN 1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Steve Lansky, Big Mouth Sports. We’ll talk NHL coaching shuffle, Edmonton passing the Leafs in the standings and the Senators.
  • Guy Flaming, Pipeline Show. Oil Kings won last night! Plus a few draft items.
  • Tom Lynn, Veritas Hockey. Our favorite hockey agent guides us through the college signing season and I’ll ask a few draft questions, too.
  • Paul Almeida, SSE. Paul will regale us with stories of giving his tickets for all the good games away and what Edmonton should do this spring and summer.

10-1260 text @Lowetide_ on twitter. See you on the radio!

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295 Responses to "STARS AT OILERS, G75 2014-15"

« Older Comments
  1. VanOil says:

    Oh no Double Agent is hurt again

  2. G Money says:

    Hall’s legs are back but hands still not entirely recovered.

  3. JAG-041 says:

    Just me or has Davidson had some hard minutes tonight?
    crazy…

  4. dangilitis says:

    Woodguy:
    Davidson looks like a player.

    Can make a pass when it’s there to be made and makes decisions quickly.

    I’d take him over Ference for 7th D.

    If you had to ice a roster next year without any free agents/trades or concern for egos, what would your combinations be and who would you keep on the team?

    Klefbom-Fayne vs. Klefbom-Schultz
    Marincin-Schultz Marincin-Fayne
    Nurse-Davidson Ference-Nikitn
    Oesterle/Simpson/LaLeggia Davidson/Oesterle/Simpson
    (bury or trade old vets)

  5. Suntory Hanzo says:

    Today the conference standings seem to show the top 8 teams sorted by points, where previously the top 6 were 3/3 pacific and central.

    My thought was that the *division* winners play the two wild card as they are ranks the lowest.

    Now I’m not sure what to think. I though the big battle was to get the third pacific spot as it jumps you past Winnipeg and Minnesota (as unfair as some folks may or not believe)

    Weird that the score would suddenly change the standings style.

  6. Ryan says:

    G Money:
    Bachman: tanking overturn.

    Your ass goes down in the fifth…

  7. RexLibris says:

    Draisaitl scores (+2). Kelowna jumps out ahead 4-0 now.

  8. wheatnoil says:

    Chase and Draisaitl each with a goal tonight, with their respective teams leading to start the third.

  9. Ryan says:

    Aren’t the Dallas Stars a disappointment this season?

  10. wheatnoil says:

    RexLibris,

    Long ways off, but there’s a non-zero chance Drai faces Nurse in the Memorial Cup. That would be fun.

  11. G Money says:

    Man, I just loved Yak’s last two shifts.

    #YAKCITY

  12. JAG-041 says:

    I love when Yak unleashes his scream

  13. unca miltie says:

    Oilers are going to pass the leafs… might draft 5th

  14. rich says:

    Love Yak’s play on that goal.

  15. G Money says:

    Jyrki Jokipakka is my new favourite hockey name.

  16. godot10 says:

    Ryan:
    Aren’t the Dallas Stars a disappointment this season?

    They’re defensemen were horrid until recently and they had no backup goaltender. Doesn’t matter how many elite forwards you have, without a defense, and absent a goaltender for 20 games.

    #JustSayNoah

  17. Dashingsilverfox says:

    unca miltie:
    Oilers are going to pass the leafs… might draft 5th

    Yep.

    Mitch Marner.

  18. G Money says:

    godot10,

    Wait, are you describing the Stars or the Oilers?

  19. Lowetide says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Yep.

    Mitch Marner.

    Music!

  20. RexLibris says:

    Jack Micheals: “superb defensive work by Taylor Hall”

    Did you catch that Coach Ruff?

  21. JAG-041 says:

    Well, Hall has a point and Yak has a point…
    Feel free to put in Scrivens that’s all I need 😉

  22. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Lowetide: Music!

    Yeah…you can’t have too many wingers.

    Who needs those centres and defensemen anyways?

  23. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide,

    You think the Leafs take Hanifin? Strome? I think they go with Marner if they finish 3rd or 4th.

  24. Lowetide says:

    Taylor Hall. Lordy.

  25. G Money says:

    Hall and his friggin will to win are really making this tank thing problematic.

  26. Dashingsilverfox says:

    RexLibris:
    Lowetide,

    You think the Leafs take Hanifin? Strome? I think they go with Marner if they finish 3rd or 4th.

    They’ll take Strome…book it.

  27. JAG-041 says:

    Schultz … what were you doing on that play!?!?!?

  28. Lowetide says:

    RexLibris:
    Lowetide,

    You think the Leafs take Hanifin? Strome? I think they go with Marner if they finish 3rd or 4th.

    Leafs? They’ll take Marner imo. He’s the third best player in the draft.

  29. G Money says:

    Hey, the guy who just won the Safeway draw is the older brother of a childhood friend of mine.

  30. Gerta Rauss says:

    Lowetide: Leafs? They’ll take Marner imo. He’s the third best player in the draft.

    I’d be thrilled with that- Hanifin is my guy with Strome as plan B.

  31. JAG-041 says:

    Not minding Miller tonight either… I remember being excited when they signed him… nice to see him play well in his cup of coffee

  32. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Lowetide: Leafs? They’ll take Marner imo. He’s the third best player in the draft.

    Unless they win the lottery..then they’ll take McDavid.

  33. frjohnk says:

    JAG-041:
    Not minding Miller tonight either… I remember being excited when they signed him… nice to see him play well in his cup of coffee

    Ha! penalty shot for the guy

    EDIT: A F^&%ING Beauty!

  34. Ryan says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Yeah…you can’t have too many wingers.

    Who needs those centres and defensemen anyways?

    Wtf?

    Haven’t the Oilers shown that you can kickstart a rebuild by building down the wings and finding the odd 4rth liner with your second round picks like Lander and Pitlick?

    🙂

  35. G Money says:

    Funny how speed is a good thing in hockey!

  36. Gerta Rauss says:

    Miller time-good for him

  37. RexLibris says:

    Miller time!

  38. G Money says:

    NOW it’s Miller time!

  39. RexLibris says:

    So, you remove Andrew Ference and Nikita Nikitin from the roster and…

    …the Oilers start to win games.

    Huh. I wonder if there’s anything to that?

  40. Gerta Rauss says:

    ha!!

  41. JAG-041 says:

    frjohnk: Ha! penalty shot for the guy

    EDIT: A F^&%ING Beauty!

    My stream is behind and I saw your edit before the goal

    did not disappoint

  42. geowal says:

    Wow, what a first!

  43. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Ryan: Wtf?

    Haven’t the Oilers shown that you can kickstart a rebuild by building down the wings and finding the odd 4rth liner with your second round picks like Lander and Pitlick?

    Sorry…i’ve apparently misread how good teams are built..

  44. Ryan says:

    What’s the verdict on Hanifin’s shot? I’ve seen conflicting reports.

  45. Adam Wu says:

    Well, if you believe Oilers management is incompetent then drafting 5th is the perfect position.

    It’s the one draft position in the top 10 that you can’t possibly screw up, and even lets you take advantage of someone ahead of you screwing up.

  46. G Money says:

    Adam Wu,

    If?

  47. striatic says:

    Gotta cheer for that. Miller is going to remember that one a long time.

  48. dangilitis says:

    RexLibris: Minnesota plays LA tomorrow night.

    If LA wins that will pretty much be it for the Flames.

    Tough way to go out, but they’ve accomplished more this season than virtually anyone believed they would.

    The really funny part is the FN roundtable I participated in at the beginning of the year had me as the most optimistic contributor of the bunch and I had them drafting somewhere between 4th and 10th overall.

    You know there’s something almost redeeming about it being a former Oiler (Dubnyk) who helped put the Flames out tonight. Taken along with Gagner and Arcobello winning a few games for the Coyotes and the Oilers diaspora is starting to do us some favours.

    Everything you say is true, and the difference between the 2014-15 Flames and the 2006-07 Oilers is a significantly better D in one case. However, I seriously doubt that forward corps is going to replicate its success next year and that Wideman and the D will be activated for as many goals and pts.

  49. wheatnoil says:

    Good for Miller!

  50. RexLibris says:

    Ryan:
    What’s the verdict on Hanifin”s shot?I’ve seen conflicting reports.

    Undecided. I believe there is still some evidence he had an accomplice on the grassy knoll.

  51. JAG-041 says:

    Miller with battle again there
    I don’t mind you being little if you fight like that… That’s what Perron had … :'(

  52. G Money says:

    Ryan,

    The Oilers are doing a real life Monte Carlo simulation of a rebuild. By running hundreds of iterations, they can create the definitive blueprint.

    When that’s done, and they put the results into action – man, the 2150 Oilers are going to be something, bet on it.

  53. Gerta Rauss says:

    And the shutout for Randy Bachman

    I may have to watch the Leafs game tomorrow-do you think it’ll be televised..?

  54. JAG-041 says:

    Why are the Oilers always better when they’re mostly just the AHL team?

  55. striatic says:

    I feel a little bit for Dallas. Huge opportunity in this game for them to start a run for a playoff spot, with the Flames coming up next.

    Laid an egg despite a strong effort and outplaying the Oilers for stretches.

    Happy the Oilers won, but a little sad for Horcoff and Hemsky.

  56. dangilitis says:

    Dashingsilverfox: If I was DSF in point this out as a very small sample size and suggest Bennett night be a better player than Platzer.

    But who knows what DSF is thinkng?

    Really, then he must have multiple personalities because the DSF I know likes to rub a single game’s worth of material in the noses of all on this site….

  57. G Money says:

    Dashingsilverfox:
    Here we go kids…Taylor vs. Tyler…obvious.

    Guess we have a pretty definitive answer…

  58. frjohnk says:

    Corey Pronman @coreypronman
    · 12m 12 minutes ago
    Leon Draisaitl example number 286 of a guy who would benefit from an AHL exception. Has dominated his WHL opponents.

  59. G Money says:

    So Ramo kept the Flames in it early, and then was pulled for letting in 4 goals on 35 shots.

    Bachman Tanking Overturn aside, we’d call 4 goals on 35 shots a really solid game.

  60. Lowetide says:

    Gerta Rauss:

    I may have to watch the Leafs game tomorrow-do you think it’ll be televised..?

    This is the best thing ever written. Ever.

  61. Ryan says:

    G Money:
    Ryan,

    The Oilers are doing a real life Monte Carlo simulation of a rebuild.By runninghundreds of iterations, they can create the definitive blueprint.

    When that’s done, and they put the results into action – man, the 2150 Oilers are going to be something, bet on it.

    Conventional Lowetide blog wisdom.

    1. Take the bpa.
    2. Don’t draft dmen high in the first round.

    Is it time to revisit this? It may be the best strategy in an isolated draft, but is it a viable long-term plan?

    Wingers are risky imo. Nail Yakupov and Mapgnus PRV say hello.

    I’m just waiting for NYCoil or someone with a background in finance to do an analysis of NHL trades for the last ten years to equate the relative trade value by position and spot in lineup.

    Wingers don’t get good value in trades… And you just can’t build down the wings.

    How often is the bpa at time of the draft the bpa five years later?

  62. Chris says:

    Yea, as much as I do not wish it on anyone it would solve a lot of problems to leave Ferrence and Nikitin on IR for all of next year.

    Worryingly we are gaining rapidly on Toronto and Carolina.

  63. geowal says:

    All but Miller’s goal scored on short passes to guys 3 feet from the crease. That was not something we would see early in the season

  64. Lowetide says:

    I just wish Dallas was a western conference team.

  65. striatic says:

    Chris: Worryingly we are gaining rapidly on Toronto and Carolina.

    Edmonton’s schedule is more difficult, if it is any consolation.

  66. judgedrude says:

    unca miltie: Oilers are going to pass the leafs… might draft 5th

    Nope, they’ll pass the Leafs and draft 1st, just to cause heads in Toronto to explode.

  67. wheatnoil says:

    Drai gets a goal in contribution to the Rockets tuning Tri-City 6-0.

    Chase also gets a goal as Kelowna wins the first game of their series 5-3.

    Betker is +1 as the Silvertips lead 2-1 in the 3rd.

    Good night for the Oilers and Oiler prospects… only Marco Roy taking a loss.

  68. Магия 10 says:

    Chris: Worryingly we are gaining rapidly on Toronto and Carolina

    Blame that cancerorous growth in points on Hall.

  69. G Money says:

    Just hopped over to ON to read the pre-post-game thread.

    LT: your GDB writeup was a thing of beauty. Truly. Fabulous. Well done.

  70. Lowetide says:

    Nurse +4 in a win, Platzer 2 assists in a win, Chase a goal in a win, Leon a goal in a win, Betker is ahead in his game no crooked numbers.

  71. Lowetide says:

    G Money:
    Just hopped over to ON to read the pre-post-game thread.

    LT: your GDB writeup was a thing of beauty.Truly.Fabulous.Well done.

    Thank you sir. Appreciated!

  72. frjohnk says:

    Ryan: Conventional Lowetide blog wisdom.

    1. Take the bpa.
    2. Don’t draft dmen high in the first round.

    Is it time to revisit this?It may be the best strategy in an isolated draft, but is it a viable long-term plan?

    Wingers are risky imo.Nail Yakupov and Mapgnus PRV say hello.

    I’m just waiting for NYCoil or someone with a background in finance to do an analysis of NHL trades for the last ten years to equate the relative trade value by position and spot in lineup.

    Wingers don’t get good value in trades…And you just can’t build down the wings.

    How often is the bpa at time of the draft the bpa five years later?

    If not drafting 1st or 2nd, I’d like to see Hanifan be the oilers pick. Godot and a few others are on board.

    I looked at d men picked from 2003 to 2010 picked in the top 15, majority of ones that did not cover the bet were the d men with skating issues. No such thing for Hanifan.

    #JustSayNoah

  73. fifthcartel says:

    Andrew Miller is kinda interesting. I know he’ll be 27 by next season but at least he can skate pretty well.

  74. TemujinBC says:

    Didn’t get to watch much of the game tonight, but I did catch Miller’s goal. Wowsers, how awesome.

    Can someone please tell me Schultz was one of the three best d-men tonight?

  75. Магия 10 says:

    judgedrude: Nope, they’ll pass the Leafs and draft 1st, just to cause heads in Toronto to explode.

    Exploding heads will be on other shoulders if flames finish behind kings and win the lottery.

  76. Магия 10 says:

    frjohnk: If not drafting 1st or 2nd, I’d like to see Hanifan be the oilers pick. Godot and a few others are on board.

    I think Eakins gets a veto on drafting godot.

  77. JAG-041 says:

    TemujinBC:
    Didn’t get to watch much of the game tonight, but I did catch Miller’s goal.Wowsers, how awesome.

    Can someone please tell me Schultz was one of the three best d-men tonight?

    I wouldn’t say so
    I liked Davidson and Marincin both tonight
    and of course, Klefbom is a babe 😀

  78. Kmart99 says:

    That Miller kid sure is fast. Hopefully he can gain some confidence and maybe one day be a player.

  79. Adam Wu says:

    JAG-041: I wouldn’t say so
    I liked Davidson and Marincin both tonight
    and of course, Klefbom is a babe

    One thing to consider with this “MacT can’t assess defensemen properly” narrative.

    MacT was high on Klefbom from the beginning, all the way back to preseason and before, back when nearly everyone on this and other forums was ragging on him for overvaluing Klefbom relative to Marincin.

    MacT also approved the drafting of Nurse.

    An honest analysis must include all the data points, not just the ones that support your preferred conclusion.

    As for Marincin, I see a lot of the people who say MacT doesn’t recognize his value also predicting that MacT is going to package Marincin in a trade for a major piece in the offseason. It should be noted that these two positions are not compatible. If that is what MacT truly intends, and that is the reason he hasn’t been mentioning Marincin as part of his “core”, then it means that MacT DOES in fact see value in Marincin, since if you are trying to trade for an important piece you HAVE to offer something of value in return.

  80. vinotintazo says:

    so dubnyk took the flames our of the playoffs? good I like him now…

  81. elphy101 says:

    Excellent game tonight. To me it highlighted how much stronger this defense can if Ference and Nikitin are out of the lineup.

    Heading into next year and longer term, I feel we have the makings of a very solid defense core with
    1) Klefbom
    2) Marincin
    3) Fayne
    4) Schultz
    5) Nurse

    I feel like if we added one upper tier defensemen and a slightly above average goalie, this team could compete for a playoff (or at least be in the race in Feb/March).

    In reviewing the names thrown out there, I haven’t seen anything that is truly available without giving up either our 3rd/4th overall pick this year, Taylor Hall or Jordan Eberle (RNH is our only untouchable imo).

    In thinking in that regard, the name I keep thinking makes the most sense for the Oilers is Jay Bouwmeester. Edmonton boy, signed at 5.4M for next 4 years (ages 31-35). Is not overly physcial but skates at an extremely high level, is a top tier passer, one of the most sound positional defensement and is one of the few players capable of eating 25+ minutes per night efficiently and effectively. Only flaw I see is that he is left handed so wouldn’t be able to play easily with Nurse or Klefbom.

    Reason I think Bouwmeester makes so much sense is that he has had a down year (his consecutive game streak ended at 733, this year) and his points/corsi are way down in 2014/15 as St. Louis’ strong defense of Shattenkirk, Pietrangelo and Jackman take his minutes and top linemates.

    Recent Blues aritcle talking about that
    http://archauthority.com/2015/03/08/st-louis-blues-really-better-off-without-jay-bouwmeester/

    I think there is a strong trade oppoturnity with the Blues this summer especially if they are eliminated early this year. Talking about a big deal for Sobotka and Bouwmeester would be the best possible approach for the team. The blues will have an appetite for picks and prospects as they are entering a major cap crunch with only 0.43M in cap space right now.

    This summer they have to sign Tarasenko (rfa) which will not be cheap, UFA Michalek, UFA Barrett Jackman and young goalie Jake Allen (rfa) who has played ok this year.

    To get Bouwmeester I’d be curious what it would take. We have the draft picks (pit 1st, Edm 2nd) to at least draw interest from the blues especially if they have another flameout in this year’s playoffs.

    Hard part is even with the Oiler’s tanking the last 9 years, we don’t have any high quality young prospects outside of our elite core that would be the final enticing piece other than Marincin/Lander/Brossoit whom should simply not be given up. And with today’s cap issues, young cheap, skill players are the best currency in the game.

  82. elphy101 says:

    Adam Wu:

    An honest analysis must include all the data points, not just the ones that support your preferred conclusion.

    As for Marincin, I see a lot of the people who say MacT doesn’t recognize his value also predicting that MacT is going to package Marincin in a trade for a major piece in the offseason. It should be noted that these two positions are not compatible. If that is what MacT truly intends, and that is the reason he hasn’t been mentioning Marincin as part of his “core”, then it means that MacT DOES in fact see value in Marincin, since if you are trying to trade for an important piece you HAVE to offer something of value in return.

    I think that is a very good point Vino. In sales you talk about and hype the stuff you want to sell. You downplay the assets you want to keep. For Mactavish, if he sees Marincin as a long-term solution, I see no reason for him to be hyping the asset at this time.

    1) Marincin is an RFA: If you want to lock him up long-term at a lower price, this summer will be your one and only opportunity where Marincin is still unsure of his NHL future and could be signed long-term at a very reasonable dollar.

    2) Marincin needs to get stronger: No better way to motivate Marincin this summer to go hard to the Gym. Mactavish and Eakins hyped Marincin spring after a really good last part of the season and he came to training camp out of shape and played really bad.

    3) When talking trade for a Bouwmeester, Weber, Seabrook, Coburn and many others. The first thing the other team will ask for is a young cheap skilled defensemen. If i’m another GM other than the untouchables in Nurse and Klefbom, I’m immediately asking for Marincin. Mactavish needs to do everything he can to ensure Marincin is not in that discussion.

  83. v4ance says:

    Hypothetical situation:

    April 4th Flames visiting EDM. If the Flames are just on the playoff bubble needing a win to stay in it and the Oilers are tied with Leafs for 3rd last, do you:

    1) Cheer for the Oilers to win and knock out the Flames to drop us to the probable 4th overall pick?

    or

    2) Cheer for Oilers to lose to drop us to 3rd overall and hope for more losses to maybe drop us to the 2nd best chance at McEichel?

    Personally, my heart says WIN but my head says lose 🙁

  84. SwedishPoster says:

    Well just your typical Oiler game. Score an early goal and then just sit back and lean on your vet D-men and Vezina level goaltending. Business as usual.

    Great game to kick off a saturday morning. Entertaining as hell. The crowd was buzzing in a way I haven’t heard, through the TV at least, all year.

    Tonights Nelson tells or Telsons(I’ll make this stick, I’ll keep banging this drum until it sticks)
    -AHL whisperer. Crazy. Just keep adding AHLers and Nelson will take this team to the cup.
    -A whole bunch of high end scoring chances outside of the goals.
    -Yak consistently putting up offense. Has anyone else noticed that he tends to kick in another gear for the third period? Don’t know if this shows up in the numbers but the visual of late is that he often looks more aggressive in the third.
    -Production from the top offensive players.
    -Trusting his players. Marincin with over 4 mins of PK time.

    I like Davidsons game, he’s got very solid positioning, battles like a madman on the boards and while not an elite puckmover in any sense just makes the quick and easy play most of the time. Reminds me slightly of Rob Scuderi though not as strong yet. Here’s to hoping. He’s already playing the Ference role better than Ference.
    Outside of I think one sloppy giveaway I think Nikitin had a pretty strong night. The whole D had a pretty strong night tbh. Marincin scoring a goal seems to have worked wonders for his confidence, looked like he was thinking shoot much quicker than before.

    Three scoring lines!!!

  85. SwedishPoster says:

    On Marty the Marincian btw. Nelson clearly thinks highly of him and from some of the things slipping out in his media avails there seems to be a plan within the org regarding his development, could ofc be Nelson always looking for his guys to improve going forward no matter where they are going but he has talked about “we” wanting Marty to get stronger and more assertive on the boards and needing this summer to gain strength. This we to me suggests Nelson, the other coaches AND management. So I’m not sure the org is down on Marty. I think they were disappointed in him coming in this season and I think they felt he took his NHL spot for granted, might be the reason MacT don’t want to mention him as an integral part going forward, a tactic that could be questioned, but still might be what MacT is doing(MacT seems to consider himself very clever so it wouldn’t surprise me at all), he wants to make sure Marincin doesn’t think he’s got a guaranteed spot next year and instead puts in the extra work to force his way in. Just speculating here ofc.

  86. knighttown says:

    SwedishPoster,

    Agree with most of this SP and another thing you’re seeing now is the mythical unicorn taking shape. Anyone remember MacT’s quote when he started about it being “too late” to change to the LA or St. Louis model with the players they had on their roster? The idea being, if you’re going to try to beat LA at their game your destined to fail.

    the goal should have been to tip the scales on those teams by throwing wave after wave of skill at them with the hope that eventually the skill gap is so great they’re the ones having to adjust.

    Taylor Hall is on the 3rd line of this hockey team and he’s not with garbage. What’s an opposing coach to do? So you end up seeing Hall against Horcoff/MacKenzie and Ritchie all night. Or he gets out against Hemsky and Spezza who can still play but they’re the definition of a soft minutes offense first line.

    I’ve heard the narrative of “Yak killing the softs” or “Eberle feasting on easy minutes” but you only truly get there when the opposition has no option.

    Nuge line is a true PvsP
    Roy line seems to be as opportunistic as hell. Not a lot of sustained pressure but at least 5 grade A scoring chances last night off turnover or slick passes.
    Lander-Hall-Miller is perhaps less scary on paper than the other two but….Taylor freaking Hall. Against 3rd pairings and either 4th lines (Ruff tried to get the Benn line against Gazdic a few times leaving the 4th exposed to this) or 3rd soft minutes lines.

  87. PhrankLee says:

    I can rationalize the Tank. I can justify it. Demand it.

    But I cannot seem to “cheer” for it during games. I enjoyed last night for Miller and Bachman, When was the last game that held any significance whatsoever? This game boasted one of our guys bags and tags his first win at home with a goose egg.

    And a much quicker than expected Miller pots his NHL first goal. On the penalty shot no less. Awesome.

    This is why wins beat out position. I am aware of the future changing ramifications of drafting one of 2 generational talents. But I would rather win 2 more games than loose 8 in a row.

    Also watched the Petes and Generals game. Hunter Smith frightens me. Made me tense. He and Bennett will be pain in the side for us for a long time.

  88. Zack says:

    I know we have to look at reality and the odds are definitely not in our favour but wouldn’t it be just sweet if the Oilers won the lottery?

    I mean, in spite of both Arizona/Buffalo management deliberately tanking, which has been evident throughout the year and no one but Toronto fans want to see them win. I wonder what the hockey gods will do….

  89. cabbiesmacker says:

    Zack:
    I know we have to look at reality and the odds are definitely not in our favour but wouldn’t it be just sweet if the Oilers won the lottery?

    I mean, in spite of both Arizona/Buffalo management deliberately tanking, which has been evident throughout the year and no one but Toronto fans want to see them win. I wonder what the hockey gods will do….

    I don’t think the Oilers can be pointing any fingers at Arizona or Buffalo when it comes to tanking.

    Keeping Eakins too long. Trading Perron and Petry. Schultz getting the minutes he does. etc etc

  90. Marc says:

    SwedishPoster:
    On Marty the Marincian btw. Nelson clearly thinks highly of him and from some of the things slipping out in his media avails there seems to be a plan within the org regarding his development, could ofc be Nelson always looking for his guys to improve going forward no matter where they are going but he has talked about “we” wanting Marty to get stronger and more assertive on the boards and needing this summer to gain strength. This we to me suggests Nelson, the other coaches AND management. So I’m not sure the org is down on Marty. I think they were disappointed in him coming in this season and I think they felt he took his NHL spot for granted, might be the reason MacT don’t want to mention him as an integral part going forward, a tactic that could be questioned, but still might be what MacT is doing(MacT seems to consider himself very clever so it wouldn’t surprise me at all), he wants to make sure Marincin doesn’t think he’s got a guaranteed spot next year and instead puts in the extra work to force his way in. Just speculating here ofc.

    I agree. I think there’s been a fair amount of blogosphere jumping to conclusions when it comes to Marincin.

    There is evidence that the Oilers think the following about Marincin:
    – he needs to work on a few things to be a consistently effective NHL D
    – he is not currently considered part of the long term core
    – if they had to move a young, cheap Dman to get a top pairing veteran D ie. Seabrook, they would move Marincin before they moved Klefbom or Nurse.

    None of these things mean that they have any intention on dumping Marincin though. The first point is one I think anyone who watches Marincin play would agree with – he does some things well for a young D, and others less well. There is absolutely nothing about an organisation recognising that a player has areas that need improving that leads one to the conclusion that the organisation wants to dump the player. On the contrary, the fact that the Oilers want him to improve, suggests that they see a future for him in the organisation. It’s when the organisation stops trying to get a player to improve that is the real tell that they are ready to move on.

    As to the second point, too many people seem to be creating a false dichotomy whereby a player is either part of the core or on his way out. That entirely misrepresents the strategy of building around a core in a hard cap league. The core is not supposed to be every good or useful player on your team, just the ones you want to build around long term, overpaying up front for value UFA years down the road if necessary. Good players who are not part of the core are an essential part of that strategy though. They’re the guys whose cap space you use to overpay the RFA years of your core. You keep them when they’re cheap and move on from them when it’s time to pay them. Think Bolland, Versteeg, Niskanen, Whitney etc. If Marincin isn’t part of the Oilers’ core, there is zero reason to move on from him now – this is precisely the stage of a non-core player’s career when they are the most useful to the team.

    As for the third point, of the young, cheap D (NB. Schultz is not cheap, so can’t be put in the same box as the other three. He’s a different type of asset), I think everyone would agree that Klefbom and Nurse have higher ceilings, and so if you have to move one of the three you move Marincin. That doesn’t mean they want to move him, or are planning to. It just means that they’re correctly valuing their prospects, making the lowest ceiling one the most available.

    I have never once seen a MSM rumour that the Oilers are shopping Marincin, or that they don’t think he’ll amount to anything, or that they’re ready to move on from him. Given the way that the MacT telegraphed his feeling about Dubnyk, or Hemsky, or Horcoff, it would be astonishing if they actually were planning to move on from him without even a whisper making the press.

    The only place that seems to think that the Oilers won’t have Marincin next season is here, and there is little, if any, evidence to back that supposition up.

  91. Evilas says:

    Wow, a shut out. I only have basic cable and can’t watch anymore games this year. Enjoyed the Gonzaga game though. Went to bed early last night and I am very surprised at the shut out. However, I tweeted to Allison Currie (she’s a HUGE Dallas fan and she also has a broken sternum) that she wouldn’t have to worry about raising her arms or chest bumping, etc, because the Stars were going to be shutout. I called it, lol.

  92. Ca$h-Money! says:

    PhrankLee:
    I can rationalize the Tank. I can justify it. Demand it.

    But I cannot seem to “cheer” for it during games. I enjoyed last night for Miller and Bachman, When was the last game that held any significance whatsoever? This game boasted one of our guys bags and tags his first win at home with a goose egg.

    And a much quicker than expected Miller pots his NHL first goal. On the penalty shot no less. Awesome.

    This is why wins beat out position. I am aware of the future changing ramifications of drafting one of 2 generational talents. But I would rather win 2 more games than loose 8 in a row.

    Also watched the Petes and Generals game. Hunter Smith frightens me. Made me tense. He and Bennett will be pain in the side for us for a long time.

    Hunter Smith can barely score in the CHL as a 20 year old who outweighs most of the Dmen he plays by 50 pounds and playing lots of minutes. He wasn’t a good pick then, he still isn’t.

    Bennett I can agree with, but I’m still happy with Drai.

  93. commonfan14 says:

    cabbiesmacker: I don’t think the Oilers can be pointing any fingers at Arizona or Buffalo when it comes to tanking.
    Keeping Eakins too long. Trading Perron and Petry. Schultz getting the minutes he does. etc etc

    There’s a difference between tanking and being foolish.

    As for the lottery, remember what they say about fate: it protects fools, little children and ships named Enterprise.

  94. Evilas says:

    Ca$h-Money!: Hunter Smith can barely score in the CHL as a 20 year old who outweighs most of the Dmen he plays by 50 pounds and playing lots of minutes. He wasn’t a good pick then, he still isn’t.

    Bennett I can agree with, but I’m still happy with Drai.

    Hunter Smith was on my radar last year, they were listing him at 6’7″ in the draft rankings, so that got my attention. I was at the Young Stars tournament and the guy is a beanpole, I doubt he is even 210lbs, he is likely only 200lbs. Other than his height, nothing stood out for me, he seemed more than a step behind the play. He has a few more years until he might even be considered a call-up.

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