LEON

During training camp fall 2014, Edmonton Oilers’ management were clearly thrilled with the size of their young centers: Leon Draisaitl, Bogdan Yakimov, Jujhar Khaira. The idea of triple towers with skill and speed has to appeal to Edmonton when projecting the team for next season. The development spike for both Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Anton Lander is a major item for the 2015-16 team and of course there’s big Dylan Strome hovering in the distance as a possibility for seasons later this decade.

The general consensus among Oilers fans has the club signing Derek Roy (or perhaps a more capable, complete veteran) and that makes a lot of sense. It would allow the team to bring Leon along at pace, send him down to the AHL with Bogdan and Jujhar and hammer away on the sisters of the poor in the minor leagues.

I don’t see it happening. As much sense as bringing in an experienced C like Roy makes, when we get back to training camp (with a possible C depth chart of Nuge-Roy-Lander-Gordon) Leon’s big shoulders, puck protection and general bigness is going to impress again. I’m not saying he won’t spend one day in the minors next season but am willing to bet he plays more NHL games in 2015-16 than he did this year.

LEON DRAISAITL, BY THE NUMBERS

  • Boxcars: 37GP, 2-7-9
  • Corsi for 5×5%: 52.1
  • OZone Start: 79.2
  • 5×5/60: 1.05
  • 5×4/60: 1.76

Dallas Eakins put him in a position to succeed, I don’t think we can argue it. Leon’s Corsi number is solid but the offense didn’t come, leading many Oilers fans to consider our German a failed lottery pick. Balderdash! He wasn’t ready and everyone but the GM knew it! Given a long audition in junior (where he’s dominating) this winter, I expect Draisaitl will be ready to push for NHL employment this fall. If he earns it, the Oilers can’t be stubborn on it and must give it to him.

Draisaitl is dominant in junior, which is reflected in the work of Todd Cordell:

  • Cordell: Draisaitl played a very strong game in all aspects. He was dominant through the neutral zone, and he drove possession at an elite rate despite a decent chunk of defensive zone starts. He also showed up everywhere on the scoresheet, factoring in on all four Kelowna goals (1G, 3A) in the win. Source

There’s a lot of chatter about Leon’s scoring rates this season being equal to a year ago (they are) in junior. In fact, the EV numbers (32GP, 10-18-28 .875) this year are lower (64GP, 22-37-59 .922) than a year ago. However, when you factor in game state usage (as per Cordell) Leon’s season in 2014-15 is splendid. He’s pushing the river folks, and starts (often) from the defensive position. If he merely develops along a normal line of progress, Draisaitl may one day be helping the Nuge handle big, tough minutes on the big club.

Music!

Edmonton may in fact turn over a new leaf and send Leon/Darnell to the AHL for a full year of seasoning. I’m not betting on it, in fact in both cases I don’t think it’s wise to make sweeping statements about these players. If they can help you win? Play them.

 

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193 Responses to "LEON"

  1. Woodguy says:

    leading many Oilers fans to consider our German a failed lottery pick.

    These people need to be shot with a ball of their own shit.

  2. Pouzar says:

    Leon needs to go and put up some points in the AHL first. He would automatically be the first line center and be playing in key situations. It’s a no brainer imo. I still don’t think he’s suddenly NHL ready after an extended stay in Junior. The AHL is an option now so I hope they use it.

  3. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    “Dallas Eakins put him in a position to succeed, I don’t think we can argue it. Leon’s Corsi number is solid but the offense didn’t come, leading many Oilers fans to consider our German a failed lottery pick. Balderdash! He wasn’t ready and everyone but the GM knew it!”

    I’m not going to argue Leon was ready for the NHL. My line was always: “The Oilers should draft whomever of the 3 Cs their scouts like, crack a beer, shake some hands, take some press pics and then tell everyone they are going back to junior with clarity the day after the draft.”

    But, Leon’s NHL audition was met with world historical bad luck.

    http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=30&s=34&rs=t&f1=2014_s&f2=5v5&f7=30-&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67

    Dead last in the NHL. DEAD LAST.

    The hockey gords didn’t want Leon in the NHL this season. They were telling us every way they know how. With a silver bullet just to be sure.

  4. Woodguy says:

    Edmonton may in fact turn over a new leaf and send Leon/Darnell to the AHL for a full year of seasoning.

    MacT is saying this to everyone who will listen.

    He’s got it out there and if MacT holds true to form (and he usually does) they will not start with the Edmonton Oilers this year.

    There’s a good chance both get called up before Remembrance Day, but they don’t start in EDM so MacT can say he followed through on his promise.

  5. Woodguy says:

    MacT- “We believe in making the player earn a spot on the team and making sure they excel at level below the NHL before they can play here”

    Reporter – “Leon played 5 games in AHL before he was called up”

    MacT- “That’s enough for us”

  6. flyfish1168 says:

    Not to be argumentative. I believe Leon needed 2 solid veteran wingers to have helped him truly succeed. Nail was not ready. JMHO.

  7. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy:
    MacT- “We believe in making the player earn a spot on the team and making sure they excel at level below the NHL before they can play here”

    Reporter – “Leon played 5 games in AHL before he was called up”

    MacT- “That’s enough for us”

    Who gets the “when do we have to give Brad Hunt a chance” opportunity while we wait for them to call up Leon?

    I hope it’s Ewanyk. That would be amazingly Oilers.

  8. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy:
    MacT- “We believe in making the player earn a spot on the team and making sure they excel at level below the NHL before they can play here”

    Reporter – “Leon played 5 games in AHL before he was called up”

    MacT- “That’s enough for us”

    Haha!. We have to remember this and then replay it when it happens.

  9. Yeti says:

    Woodguy: He’s got it out there and if MacT holds true to form (and he usually does) they will not start with the Edmonton Oilers this year.

    Absolutely. Leon will start in the AHL because we’ll need an NHL C spot for Strome.

  10. RexLibris says:

    Pittsburgh won last night.

    Lost Letang to injury.

    Draft pick outlook appearing to get better by the day.

  11. leeinvan says:

    The Oilers take a lot of heat for starting kids too young in the NHL. If you look at the stats, there are plenty of teams bringing in very young players. The difference is, when the Oilers are sucking, the press focuses on the young players. If you are a young player, playing on a winning team, everyone says what a steal or what a find by that team. Florida took an 18 year old and he became their best d man, he will probably win rookie of the year. This proves that every individual is different. Getzlaf and Perry played 17 and 19 games in the AHL that’s hardly what I would call earning your stripes. Yet everyone raves about these 2 players.
    It’s very simple if your team is winning , everything is fine. Lose and everyone is looking to blame someone.

  12. Woodguy says:

    Back to Dmen and the draft for a second (hope you don’t mind LT)

    I want to be clear that Provorov is an elite prospect as well.

    He too made his National U20 team as a 17 year old this year.

    He’s scoring at 1pt/gm pace.

    He’s got a 21%IPP (Ekblad has 23%)

    He may well be the best Dman available this year.

    I’m fine with either him or Hanifin.

    Everyone says “BPA, don’t draft for need” and 99.5% of the time in regards to the NHL you would be right.

    Where you are not right is the exact position the Oilers are in today.

    They have 3 elite Forwards on long term contract.
    Yak is developing and is RFA
    Leon will play this year
    Pouliot is the good and they have him for 4 more years.

    The Oilers have exactly 3 good D prospects, and they can’t remember the name of one of them.

    When you are drafting a player who will play on your team within 2 years and the top of your roster if fairly set (D or F or a combo) and is good enough to be set, then you can draft for need.

    The Oilers find themselves in a good spot and need to take advantage of it.

    They have an elite top 6 who would score even more if they had more than 1 or 2 Dmen who could actually help break the puck out with possession.

    They have a chance to fix that with either Hanifin or Provorov (either who are 3 years from making an impact on the NHL team)

    This then frees up the Oilers to package the PIT1 with a Marincin (who gets asked about more than any other Oiler in trade as per Bob) to get an established top pairing D from a team in cap trouble.

    You can fix the biggest ailment on the Oilers in one fell swoop, but you MUST draft for need and take a Dman.

    Must.

  13. gogliano says:

    I’m generally fine with the 40 game tryout. I think management was basically planning to send him down at the halfway mark if he didn’t excel and, to their credit, that’s what they did. He is now getting the experience of dominating juniors and going on a healthy playoff run. But he should be doing so with an eye to what it takes to compete at the NHL level. All the scouting reports seem to suggest that he is getting a healthy share of tough minutes and tough zone starts, something he might be a little more eager to embrace now that he knows the challenge that lies ahead.

    Does the 40 NHL games hurt him? I doubt it. He’s young and he wasn’t expected to blow the lights out in the NHL at 18. I think the problem of promoting kids too quick mostly has to do with robbing kids of the experience of flourishing at their craft. The tryout -> WHL powerhouse preserves that for Drais.

  14. Woogie63 says:

    Leon and Darrell NEED to go tne AHL, the new Cali division will be great development. I would bet after two years of being a pro, Bogdan is a more complete centre in October 2015.

  15. Woodguy says:

    flyfish1168:
    Not to be argumentative. I believe Leon needed 2 solid veteran wingers to have helped him truly succeed. Nail was not ready. JMHO.

    Hall-Leon-Yak would be interesting for next year.

  16. Lowetide says:

    WG: The draft is very deep in defensemen, getting a very good one with the Penguins pick is likely. In fact, there’s a chance EDM could take Pens’ pick and their own second rounder and move up to grab the D who falls (as happened with Fowler, etc).

  17. flyfish1168 says:

    Woodguy: Hall-Leon-Yak would be interesting for next year.

    That would be. Nail is coming around and Taylor is Taylor. Would this happen next year. Would Derek start then by Christmas Leon takes over?

  18. frjohnk says:

    Lowetide:
    WG: The draft is very deep in defensemen, getting a very good one with the Penguins pick is likely. In fact, there’s a chance EDM could take Pens’ pick and their own second rounder and move up to grab the D who falls (as happened with Fowler, etc).

    Speaking of Fowler, he was a healthy scratch a few games ago. Maybe……..

  19. stush18 says:

    Woodguy:
    Back to Dmen and the draft for a second (hope you don’t mind LT)

    I want to be clear that Provorov is an elite prospect as well.

    He too made his National U20 team as a 17 year old this year.

    He’s scoring at 1pt/gm pace.

    He’s got a 21%IPP (Ekblad has 23%)

    He may well be the best Dman available this year.

    I’m fine with either him or Hanifin.

    Everyone says “BPA, don’t draft for need” and 99.5% of the time in regards to the NHL you would be right.

    Where you are not right is the exact position the Oilers are in today.

    They have 3 elite Forwards on long term contract.
    Yak is developing and is RFA
    Leon will play this year
    Pouliot is the good and they have him for 4 more years.

    The Oilers have exactly 3 good D prospects, and they can’t remember the name of one of them.

    When you are drafting a player who will play on your team within 2 years and the top of your roster if fairly set (D or F or a combo)and is good enough to be set, then you can draft for need.

    The Oilers find themselves in a good spot and need to take advantage of it.

    They have an elite top 6 who would score even more if they had more than 1 or 2 Dmen who could actually help break the puck out with possession.

    They have a chance to fix that with either Hanifin or Provorov (either who are 3 years from making an impact on the NHL team)

    This then frees up the Oilers to package the PIT1 with a Marincin (who gets asked about more than any other Oiler in trade as per Bob) to get an established top pairing D from a team in cap trouble.

    You can fix the biggest ailment on the Oilers in one fell swoop, but you MUST draft for need and take a Dman.

    Must.

    I agree they have to take a dman. Ive been advocating hanifin at number three all year long, especially since the new year where he has went close to 1 ppg as a 17 yr old. The problem comes down to which do you trust more, the numbers or the scouts “saw him good”.

    Hanifin- 6’2″ 209 37gp 5g 18a 23 p
    Provorov- 6’0″ 201 60gp 15g 46a 61p
    Werenski- 6’2″ 214 35gp 9g 16a 25p
    Kylington- 6’0″ 174 18 gp 5p SHL

    Kylington is a hard one to judge, as im pretty sure they do not count secondary assists. I dont know if i would consider him the same class as provorov, werenski, hanifin.

    With the exception of hanifin, these three guys have been ranked all over this year, typically from 3rd-15. Hanifin has been ranked number 3-4 all year.

    If we miss out on mceichel, i really think this would be a year to trade down, and let a team in the 6-8 range trade with us. Is it possible to convince the devils to hand us there second rnd pick and 6th overall for number 3/4?

    “Hey lou, lets jumpstart that offense. Lets swap picks and your second rnder”
    “Why would we do that”
    “Listen your going to miss out on strome (toronto) and marner (arizona). We dont need offense in our top six, and you need something that can step in and drum up ticket sales right away”
    “Done”

    When pick 6 comes around you take the best of hanifin, werenski, provorov, plus you add another bullet to the chamber, which you could use in a deep draft, or utilize in a trade to fill up some holes.

  20. gd says:

    For me, RNH and Lander’s development mean this team can comfortably go into next year with Roy or little more expensive second line centre option that shouldn’t cost any significant trade assets. Then slot Leon, Yak2 wherever they should be based on what is best for their development.

    Based on what I’ve seen from him, I can not think of any reason to not want Hanifan for the Oilers. He seems closer to Doughty, Ekblad, Trouba, Jones than to Murray, Larsson. His only flaw is the extra developmental time for D continues to waste some of Hall’s prime. My hope would be that what I think a D of Hanifan, Nurse, Klefbom could be like for the last half of his career, will more than make up for the train-wreck of the Barker, Whitney, Nikitin years for Taylor.

  21. Ryan says:

    Woodguy,

    Great stuff.

    Drafting for need is a curious concept.

    Teams can never have too many skilled centres. You can always shift them to the wing. Team Canada has shown us that you can build entire forward roster nearly out of centres. I know you love your centres too with your frequent mentioning of the Islanders centre depth chart. Centres also are good currency for trades (Sam Gagner factors excluded).

    Top two dmen are the most scarce commodity in the NHL. Teams almost never trade them (unless it’s Sather bending someone over.. for Ryan McDonaugh). They don’t last forever…are very hard to find in the draft. Top four dmen are always in demand and great trade currency. Dmen do take a long time to develop…

    Teams obviously need top six wingers, but they certainly seem easier to come by the centres and dmen. Perron was trade once for a flagging 1st rounder and a second and later for a late first. If a team was starving for top six wingers and loaded at centre like the Penguins, it’s not like they would skip over the bpa who was a centre for a winger. If your team was loaded with good centre and d prospects, you can always find a winger.

    Anyway, the whole idea of drafting for need is sort of nebulous imo.

    Goalies are impossible to draft…
    Dmen take years to be ready…
    No one really has a need to draft a winger…
    Teams always need centres and dmen (position and supply of cheap contracts)

  22. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy,

    I think it speaks to the particular situation the Oilers find themselves in at the time of this specific draft.

    Consider in previous years when they were selecting 1st overall and there was, more or less, one player at the top followed by a collection of relatively lesser talents (as judged at the time of the draft).

    The decision was made for them, and there were, for all intents and purposes, no options available.

    It was never really down to Nugent-Hopkins or Larsson. Nor was it a clear decision between Yakupov and Murray – even most scouts at the time said it was Yakupov and then a collection of other players.

    Then last year they had some good fortune in having to choose one of two remaining centers.

    This year, by comparison, they could draft at 5th overall and still be choosing between a large C or an elite D prospect in Strome and Provorov. In either case they are served by both the depth of the draft and their own draft placement.

    This draft experience is, in my view, closer to, but with greater upside, their situation going into the 2013 draft than any other one since 2010 by virtue of their draft placement, the depth of talent available, and the circumstances of the organizational depth chart at this stage.

    They quite literally could select 6th overall and still address an organizational need with an elite prospect, which is both a testament to the prospect pool and a damning indictment of the progress of the rebuild to-date.

  23. Магия 10 says:

    Woodguy: These people need to be shot with a ball of their own shit

    WG, MythBusters is holding on line 1.

  24. flyfish1168 says:

    I would love to have Strome or Marner. But our problem is we don’t have balance between our defense and forwards. I feel is more difficult to trade for a top end d-man vs a forward.

  25. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    WG: The draft is very deep in defensemen, getting a very good one with the Penguins pick is likely. In fact, there’s a chance EDM could take Pens’ pick and their own second rounder and move up to grab the D who falls (as happened with Fowler, etc).

    I don’t want a good one.

    I want an elite one that is making a difference on the 16/17 Oilers.

  26. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: I don’t want a good one.

    I want an elite one that is making a difference on the 16/17 Oilers.

    I spoke to Kirk Luedeke (right around Hanifin’s birthday) and he raved about the young man being able to do what he’s doing at that age. I agree with that, absolutely. It’s very impressive. It’s miles and miles from being an elite defenseman who can make a difference on the 2016-17 Oilers.

  27. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy: I don’t want a good one.

    I want an elite one that is making a difference on the 16/17 Oilers.

    This. And I want Hanifin over all of them.

  28. Lois Lowe says:

    I think it will be really interesting to see where Hanifan ends up playing next year. I assume that he’d probably make the switch to the CHL to get used to playing ~70 game schedule.

  29. Lowetide says:

    Lois Lowe:
    I think it will be really interesting to see where Hanifan ends up playing next year. I assume that he’d probably make the switch to the CHL to get used to playing ~70 game schedule.

    I’d be tempted to keep him in college for another year. In watching him yesterday (just a period) his creativity was evident and if he can post terrific boxcars in the NCAA next season that would be (imo) more impressive than if he goes off with a powerhouse CHL team.

  30. gd says:

    Lois Lowe,

    I’m not positive, but I believe he can play in the AHL, coming from the NCAA, though it would burn a year of his entry contract.

  31. dustrock says:

    I have a feeling Kylington is more like a Werenski at this point. But I’ve read it’s a toss-up between Hanifin & Kylington for best skating in the draft. Kylington also plays RHD I believe, which is a selling point. I’d love a way to grab both Hanifin & Kylington.

    Speaking of Leon, his Sakic-esque goal in the 3rd was a beauty. Picked off a stretch pass and wristed it over Comrie using Wotherspoon as a screen. Happened so quickly the announcer & cameraman were both behind the play.

  32. Doubting Olive says:

    BPA is always the most desirable option. As you all know, you can trade for need, however, you MUST NOT HAVE seller’s remorse. It’s lack of proper assessment and indecision that will kill you if you follow the BPA way.

  33. G Money says:

    Woodguy: Everyone says “BPA, don’t draft for need” and 99.5% of the time in regards to the NHL you would be right.

    You can fix the biggest ailment on the Oilers in one fell swoop, but you MUST draft for need and take a Dman.

    WG, I agree with pretty much everything you said, except one:

    This is the incorrect usage of “BPA” and “drafting for need” IMO.

    People have set up the idea of BPA and drafting for need as if they are inherently at odds with each other.

    They are not!

    It is a false dichotomy.

    Drafting Hanifin might be drafting for need, but it does not violate the idea of drafting BPA.

    People are tossing around the idea that we must take Marner or Strome “because BPA”.

    Wrong!

    Why on earth would or should “BPA” mean “the player [my,Mckenzie’s,Button’s] list has him at”?

    Drafting is so far from exact, it makes my sides hurt.

    If you are picking third and you take the similarly rated 4th or 5th ranked player because it fits your teams gaps better, this is not a bad thing to do, it’s the smart thing to do.

    IMO “Drafting for need but not BPA” means skipping over a clearly better player, the BPA, in order to fill a perceived need.

    It means using your #20 spot to draft the 40th ranked 7′ 84″ 400 lb C Coke Machine while bypassing over many other much more highly skilled players, F or D, “because we need size”.

    Picking Hanifin over Eichel or McDavid would be “drafting for need” in a way that violates BPA.

    That’s a bad thing to do, we can all agree on that I suspect. The failed Oiler picks are littered with those.

    If on the other hand, you have three similarly rated players available when you draft, then you should draft for need, but the good news is that you are not failing to take the BPA, because at that point there is no BPA.

    There are three, similarly ranked but different players available at #3. There is no clear BPA.

    If the Oilers draft third, they should therefore take the one they need. In order, that would be: elite D, big C, and skilled W. That would be: Hanifin, Strome, Marner.

    No knock on Marner, he’s a terrific player and I’d be happy if the Oilers end up with him. But he’s not clearly better than Strome or Hanifin.

    To repeat, taking Hanifin is drafting for need BUT DOES NOT VIOLATE THE IDEA OF DRAFTING BPA.

    Doesn’t.

  34. Klima's_Bucket says:

    You can get wingers a dime a dozen through various ways.
    Even MacT brought in Perron, Purcell and Pouliot.

    How many top 4 Dmen have changed hands in the past year?
    Yandle – Rangers paid a ton
    Petry – Rental D
    Wisniewski – Lumbus wanted him gone
    Coburn – Tampa paid dearly
    Sekera- Rental
    Franson- Rental
    Myers- Hockey deal
    Bogosian- Hockey deal
    Dillon- Hockey deal
    Demers- Hockey Deal
    Boychuk – Salary dump
    Leddy- Salary dump
    Stralman- Free agent signing
    Fayne – Free agent signing
    Niskanen – Free agent signing

    Top four Dmen are rarely acquired.
    Top 2 Dmen even less so.
    Most of these guys listed above are not even in the same universe as Hanifin.
    If the Oilers want to compete you need to take a Dman.
    You can never have too much Dmen especially top flight ones.
    Because you will rarely get them in free agency or through trades.

  35. thatoneguy says:

    I would not mind Draisaitl on the Oilers at all if he’s surrounded by the right group of forwards and not relied on for hard minutes. If you exclude the Wagon Line there are 9 forward spots and I think a team can do well if Draisaitl is the 9th best among them perhaps playing on the wing to minimize the pressure. If there is money leftover to get an upgrade go for it but it doesn’t seem like a priority.

  36. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Lowetide: It’s miles and miles from being an elite defenseman who can make a difference on the 2016-17 Oilers.

    Was what Ekblad did in his draft year miles and miles away from contributing to the NHL?
    I don’t see how Hanifan can be so far behind Ekblad.

  37. leadfarmer says:

    RexLibris,

    As ticked off as I was at MacT for that Perron trade, that is looking like a really good trade right now. Other than the first few games where it seemed like Perron scored a goal every game, he hasn’t had much offense. Being a 0.6 ppg player playing with the best player in the league and being a minus player overall is not what Pittsburgh envisioned when they traded for him. At the time people were contemplating trading him for Anisimov or Eller, both of whom are 3rd liners and are not worth a first round pick, especially not in this draft. Hopefully MacT can cash that pick into a good player.

  38. GCW_69 says:

    “If he earns it, the Oilers can’t be stubborn on it and must give it to him.”

    How does he earn it though? Preseason competition is nothing like regular season competition, so even if he plays well, it doesn’t really prove anything.

    The only way he can earn it, with some degree of comfort, is to start in the AHL and dominate for an extended stretch. Anything less and giving him a role at the NHL level is equivalent to buying a lottery ticket. Now, we know the Oilers love the lottery, but still.

  39. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy,

    Interesting as in how much the other teams best players will salivate playing against that line.

  40. Lowetide says:

    Klima’s_Bucket: Was what Ekblad did in his draft year miles and miles away from contributing to the NHL?
    I don’t see how Hanifan can be so far behind Ekblad.

    There are elements to Hanifin’s game that are shy of Ekblad’s including shot and physical play. I should post my conversation with Kirk Luedeke on Hanifin:

    http://oilersnation.com/2015/1/26/how-good-is-noah-hanifin

  41. Lowetide says:

    GCW_69:
    “If he earns it, the Oilers can’t be stubborn on it and must give it to him.”

    How does he earn it though?Preseason competition is nothing like regular season competition, so even if he plays well, it doesn’t really prove anything.

    The only way he can earn it, with some degree of comfort, is to start in the AHL and dominate for an extended stretch.Anything less and giving him a role at the NHL level is equivalent to buying a lottery ticket. Now, we know the Oilers love the lottery, but still.

    The final two or three games usually sees NHL teams run a fairly complete lineup. Edmonton being the exception.

  42. GCW_69 says:

    Woodguy:
    Back to Dmen and the draft for a second (hope you don’t mind LT)

    I want to be clear that Provorov is an elite prospect as well.

    He too made his National U20 team as a 17 year old this year.

    He’s scoring at 1pt/gm pace.

    He’s got a 21%IPP (Ekblad has 23%)

    He may well be the best Dman available this year.

    I’m fine with either him or Hanifin.

    Everyone says “BPA, don’t draft for need” and 99.5% of the time in regards to the NHL you would be right.

    Where you are not right is the exact position the Oilers are in today.

    They have 3 elite Forwards on long term contract.
    Yak is developing and is RFA
    Leon will play this year
    Pouliot is the good and they have him for 4 more years.

    The Oilers have exactly 3 good D prospects, and they can’t remember the name of one of them.

    When you are drafting a player who will play on your team within 2 years and the top of your roster if fairly set (D or F or a combo)and is good enough to be set, then you can draft for need.

    The Oilers find themselves in a good spot and need to take advantage of it.

    They have an elite top 6 who would score even more if they had more than 1 or 2 Dmen who could actually help break the puck out with possession.

    They have a chance to fix that with either Hanifin or Provorov (either who are 3 years from making an impact on the NHL team)

    This then frees up the Oilers to package the PIT1 with a Marincin (who gets asked about more than any other Oiler in trade as per Bob) to get an established top pairing D from a team in cap trouble.

    You can fix the biggest ailment on the Oilers in one fell swoop, but you MUST draft for need and take a Dman.

    Must.

    Generally I agree with this. You expect top five picks to play in the NHL with two years, so roster make up and balance need to be a factor. It’s when you get outside of the top five or so you go best players available because who knows when they are going to arrive.

  43. G Money says:

    Lowetide: The final two or three games usually sees NHL teams run a fairly complete lineup. Edmonton being the exception.

    I think it’s fair to say that the Oilers run their pre-season lineup until January, at which time injuries take over and they run their AHL lineup for the rest of the season.

  44. GCW_69 says:

    Lowetide: The final two or three games usually sees NHL teams run a fairly complete lineup. Edmonton being the exception.

    But the sample size is so small it doesn’t tell you anything. Making a decision on three games is nuts.

  45. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide,

    Yeah comparing a CHL players physical play to someone playing against men is not really fair. I remember when Gilbert Brule was a physical player in the CHL.

  46. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: I spoke to Kirk Luedeke (right around Hanifin’s birthday) and he raved about the young man being able to do what he’s doing at that age. I agree with that, absolutely. It’s very impressive. It’s miles and miles from being an elite defenseman who can make a difference on the 2016-17 Oilers.

    That’s true too.

    But you still have to draft an elite Dmen.

    The assumption that you can trade for them later simply hasn’t held water in the cap era.

    Elite D don’t get traded anywhere near often enough to bank on being able to do it from your surplus of wingers.

    Draft and develop and those two have the best arrows in this draft,

  47. wheatnoil says:

    G Money,

    I agree most strongly with this point. I know LT has put his stock in Marner as BPA, but I’m not as convinced he’s head and shoulders ahead of Strome and Hanifin. It’s too close to call.

    The offense knock on Hanifin (brought up by others at times, not you G Money) is a good point, but:

    1) There’s the 17 year old in the NCAA factor. He’s actually the 3rd highest scoring freshman in the NCAA and the two above him are Gross (2 years older & 5’10”) and Werenski (also extremely highly ranked in the draft, got more points on the PP, less at even-strength than Hanifin, and also shot 11.2%… a little high for a D-man).

    2) Offense is only part of the story for a D-man. “Puck-moving” and “point-getting” D-man are not the same thing (see Schultz, Justin). In today’s NHL, “puck-moving” is more important than “point-getting”. As many have pointed out before (notably Frjohnk & Godot), high end defensemen who don’t pan out tend to be poor skating. Those who are good skaters who still struggle are poorly skilled, i.e. not good puck movers (e.g. Smid, Ladislav). Hanifin is both an elite skater and an elite puck-mover.

    Hanifin may not pan out. As a D-man, there’s greater risk than the forwards Marner or Strome. This risk is mitigated somewhat (greatly?) by elite skating and excellent puck-moving skills. That risk acknowledged, however, I’m not convinced he isn’t BPA.

    By that same token, I’m also not convinced that Provorov doesn’t belong in that category of Marner and Strome either, but admit to not knowing quite as much about him.

    Bob Green… you’re up. That first pick of yours is going to be a doozy.

  48. Lowetide says:

    G Money: I think it’s fair to say that the Oilers run their pre-season lineup until January, at which time injuries take over and they run their AHL lineup for the rest of the season.

    Haha. After the deadline, they lock and load!

  49. frjohnk says:

    Lowetide: There are elements to Hanifin’s game that are shy of Ekblad’s including shot and physical play. I should post my conversation with Kirk Luedeke on Hanifin:

    http://oilersnation.com/2015/1/26/how-good-is-noah-hanifin

    Not sure if it was Luedeke, but you had someone on your show about a month and a half ago or so and I remember him saying that the gap between Hanifan and Eichel was not much and if Hanifan was more physical he ( the scout) would probably have Hanifan over Eichel.

  50. godot10 says:

    Lowetide: It’s miles and miles from being an elite defenseman who can make a difference on the 2016-17 Oilers.

    Drew Doughty was Canada’s second best defensemen at the Olympics in 2010, 20 months after being drafted.

    Cam Fowler, Seth Jones and Aaron Ekblad have stepped directly into the NHL, and not embarrassed themselves.

    Nobody is suggesting Hanifin step into the NHL immediately. AHL or stay in college for at least one more year.

    Hanifin will likely contribute as quickly as Marner or Strome. MacKinnon, Barkov, Huberdeau, Yakupov, Drouin, top forwards, are not exactly setting the NHL on fire anymore. Jones and Ekbad are doing more sooner.

  51. Hammers says:

    LT I must agree with you on this and personally feel our lines as set right now are balanced even with Roy playing 2nd line “C” . Leon is the perfect player as our next winger or “C” to play or be called up or as woodguy surmised within 5 games . Let him play a bit on the wing if he has to and with his size , strength and smarts he would fit right in .Many knock Pouliot and Purcell but add Leon and you have 3 big men on your top 3 lines .

  52. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: I spoke to Kirk Luedeke (right around Hanifin’s birthday) and he raved about the young man being able to do what he’s doing at that age. I agree with that, absolutely. It’s very impressive. It’s miles and miles from being an elite defenseman who can make a difference on the 2016-17 Oilers.

    CORRECTION.

    I meant 17/18 Oilers.

    3 years from this draft, not 2.

    My bad.

  53. Woodguy says:

    G Money,

    If you are picking third and you take the similarly rated 4th or 5th ranked player because it fits your teams gaps better, this is not a bad thing to do, it’s the smart thing to do.

    IMO “Drafting for need but not BPA” means skipping over a clearly better player, the BPA, in order to fill a perceived need.

    Once again I need to say I love you.

    I love you.

  54. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Lowetide,

    Thanks for posting the Hanifin link.

    Ekblad is having an incredible season.
    Hanifin’s skating is superior to Ekblad.
    Hanifin should be able to contribute by 2016-2017 especially if he had the luxury of a Brian Campbell type to pair with and not an anchor in Andrew Ference.

  55. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: I’d be tempted to keep him in college for another year. In watching him yesterday (just a period) his creativity was evident and if he can post terrific boxcars in the NCAA next season that would be (imo) more impressive than if he goes off with a powerhouse CHL team.

    If they take Hanifin dominating teenagers in the CHL shouldn’t even be an option.

    NCAA or AHL.

    I like NCAA as I fear the injury factor of young men in the rough and tumble AHL.

  56. godot10 says:

    Leon should be allowed to dominate at the AHL level first, so there is no question in anybody’s mind where he belongs. Ditto Nurse.

    It means there are no doubts in anyone’s mind when he subsequently might struggle at the NHL level.

  57. Hammers says:

    Woodguy:
    Back to Dmen and the draft for a second (hope you don’t mind LT)

    I want to be clear that Provorov is an elite prospect as well.

    He too made his National U20 team as a 17 year old this year.

    He’s scoring at 1pt/gm pace.

    He’s got a 21%IPP (Ekblad has 23%)

    He may well be the best Dman available this year.

    I’m fine with either him or Hanifin.

    Everyone says “BPA, don’t draft for need” and 99.5% of the time in regards to the NHL you would be right.

    Where you are not right is the exact position the Oilers are in today.

    They have 3 elite Forwards on long term contract.
    Yak is developing and is RFA
    Leon will play this year
    Pouliot is the good and they have him for 4 more years.

    The Oilers have exactly 3 good D prospects, and they can’t remember the name of one of them.

    When you are drafting a player who will play on your team within 2 years and the top of your roster if fairly set (D or F or a combo)and is good enough to be set, then you can draft for need.

    The Oilers find themselves in a good spot and need to take advantage of it.

    They have an elite top 6 who would score even more if they had more than 1 or 2 Dmen who could actually help break the puck out with possession.

    They have a chance to fix that with either Hanifin or Provorov (either who are 3 years from making an impact on the NHL team)

    This then frees up the Oilers to package the PIT1 with a Marincin (who gets asked about more than any other Oiler in trade as per Bob) to get an established top pairing D from a team in cap trouble.

    You can fix the biggest ailment on the Oilers in one fell swoop, but you MUST draft for need and take a Dman.

    Must.

    You sir are 100% correct , right down to Provorov . I would also say keep Purcell for his last year giving us a 30-35 point big forward and by the next year 1 of the AHL players will be ready .

  58. Woodguy says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy,

    Interesting as in how much the other teams best players will salivate playing against that line.

    Great.

    That means their best players aren’t playing against Eberle-RNH-Pou and they can get all the goals.

  59. wheatnoil says:

    Woodguy: If they take Hanifin dominating teenagers in the CHL shouldn’t even be an option.

    NCAA or AHL.

    I like NCAA as I fear the injury factor of young men in the rough and tumble AHL.

    For Hanifin and the Oilers specifically, I vote one more year in the NCAA, then jump to the AHL. Lots of young D in Bakersfield next year, including Nurse (for 5 games). It would be nice to give them an extra year without Hanifin. It also separates out your big rookie D coming into the AHL and therefore into the NHL with Nurse and Hanifin being separated out by a year.

  60. Woodguy says:

    G Money: I think it’s fair to say that the Oilers run their pre-season lineup until January, at which time injuries take over and they run their AHL lineup for the rest of the season.

    Wins teh interwebs for the day!

  61. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Woodguy: But you still have to draft an elite Dmen.
    The assumption that you can trade for them later simply hasn’t held water in the cap era.
    Elite D don’t get traded anywhere near often enough to bank on being able to do it from your surplus of wingers.

    Can you please put this on a billboard down on Kingsway?

  62. Lowetide says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    Lowetide,

    Thanks for posting the Hanifin link.

    Ekblad is having an incredible season.
    Hanifin’s skating is superior to Ekblad.
    Hanifin should be able to contribute by 2016-2017 especially if he had the luxury of a Brian Campbell type to pair with and not an anchor in Andrew Ference.

    I understand the excitement over the idea of an impact, complete defenseman. I get it. But the idea (respectfully) of Hanifin making a difference in 2016-17 is being adopted here as gospel. Please, please remember the Oilers track record with college defensmen.

    The same people screaming for Hanifin now may be ripping him a new one over lack of physical play and getting beaten in board battles in 2016-17.

    I’m not making this up. I’ve seen it! College blue get their asses kicked by Oilers fans. I like Hanifin. I really do. I don’t think it is reasonable to say he’s a good bet to be a major contributor in 2016-17.

    Hammer away. I don’t see it, folks. He isn’t Doughty and his scouting reports say so. Honest.

  63. godot10 says:

    The concensus is still that Noah Hanifin is the BPA at #3, not Marner, or Strome.

    Lowetide says McKenzie’s list is the gold standard until he disagrees with it.

    Drafting Hanifin IS drafting the BPA, NOT drafting for need.

    Hanifin will seem like Chris effing Pronger in physicality compared to Justin Schultz.

  64. Pouzar says:

    wheatnoil:
    G Money,

    I agree most strongly with this point. I know LT has put his stock in Marner as BPA, but I’m not as convinced he’s head and shoulders ahead of Strome and Hanifin. It’s too close to call.

    The offense knock on Hanifin (brought up by others at times, not you G Money) is a good point, but:

    1) There’s the 17 year old in the NCAA factor. He’s actually the 3rd highest scoring freshman in the NCAA and the two above him are Gross (2 years older & 5’10”) and Werenski (also extremely highly ranked in the draft, got more points on the PP, less at even-strength than Hanifin, and also shot 11.2%… a little high for a D-man).

    2) Offense is only part of the story for a D-man. “Puck-moving” and “point-getting” D-man are not the same thing (see Schultz, Justin). In today’s NHL, “puck-moving” is more important than “point-getting”. As many have pointed out before (notably Frjohnk & Godot), high end defensemen who don’t pan out tend to be poor skating. Those who are good skaters who still struggle are poorly skilled, i.e. not good puck movers (e.g. Smid, Ladislav). Hanifin is both an elite skater and an elite puck-mover.

    Hanifin may not pan out. As a D-man, there’s greater risk than the forwards Marner or Strome. This risk is mitigated somewhat (greatly?) by elite skating and excellent puck-moving skills. That risk acknowledged, however, I’m not convinced he isn’t BPA.

    By that same token, I’m also not convinced that Provorov doesn’t belong in that category of Marner and Strome either, but admit to not knowing quite as much about him.

    Bob Green… you’re up. That first pick of yours is going to be a doozy.

    This. If you have a puck moving d-man moving it enough to talented forwards the points will come.
    I think Duncan Keith in Chicago. I think Hanifin is as safe a pick as you can get here.

  65. Lowetide says:

    godot10:
    The concensus is still that Noah Hanifin is the BPA at #3, not Marner, or Strome.

    Lowetide says McKenzie’s list is the gold standard until he disagrees with it.

    Drafting Hanifin IS drafting the BPA, NOT drafting for need.

    McKenzie’s list IS the gold standard. The one he releases before the draft. 🙂

  66. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide,

    LT just doesn’t like drafting defensemen high. Its cool. Its not the sexy pick. Its like picking linemen in the NFL. Its necessary but the fanboys enjoy the WR, QB, and RB picks more, although without a good line those players will struggle. Very similar to defensemen in the NHL.

    Look for many years Nashville has been in a better position with 2 defenseman and a goalie and a bunch of random players pieced together than team like Dallas, Colorado, and Edmonton are with some of the best forwards in the league but overall horrible defense.

  67. Lowetide says:

    The tone of this thread is getting ugly. I’m not fond of being called a fanboy. I will keep the post up, but am absolutely arguing a point while some are making this personal. Please stop. Thanks.

  68. godot10 says:

    Lowetide: McKenzie’s list IS the gold standard. The one he releases before the draft.

    Hanifin has been a rock solid #3 all year. BPA. Marner might close the gap in the final list, but it will likely only be a split vote at best. So Hanifan will still argubably be the BPA.

  69. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Lowetide: He isn’t Doughty and his scouting reports say so. Honest.

    You’re right he’s not Doughty. He’s Scott Niedermayer.
    If it takes an extra year for Hanifin to become a multiple cup winning Hall of Fame calibre Dman then so be it. I’ve got spare time. But for your sake…for your daughter’s sake… you might wanna think about buying a quality product from me…

  70. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide,

    The same people screaming for Hanifin now may be ripping him a new one over lack of physical play and getting beaten in board battles in 2016-17.

    I think that’s a bit of a strawman.

    If you are going to let those people’s opinion run the team why not trade Marincin and Klefbom for Fistric and Engellend right now?

    Those opinions have never mattered.

    No one’s opinion matters but the GM.

    Also,

    I did correct my 16/17 to 17/18.

    You’ll see in my original post I said 3 years.

    The 16/17 was a typo and I corrected it.

  71. Lowetide says:

    godot10: Hanifin has been a rock solid #3 all year.BPA. Marner might close the gap in the final list, but it will likely only be a split vote at best.So Hanifan will still argubably be the BPA.

    Yes. I don’t disagree at all. I’m not, and have not at any time, said Hanifin is a poor choice. I am saying that Marner, in my opinion, is the better player. I have also pointed out, respectfully, why I believe there are legit questions about taking Hanifin No. 3 overall. These include, but are not limited to, history, some concern about range of skills, and of course defensemen being more prone to injury and development issues due to injury.

  72. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    The tone of this thread is getting ugly. I’m not fond of being called a fanboy. I will keep the post up, but am absolutely arguing a point while some are making this personal. Please stop. Thanks.

    SCREW YOU MITCHELL!!!

  73. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Lowetide,

    LT’s right.
    Let’s keep things positive.
    How bout them Leafs picking up 2 points last night?

  74. frjohnk says:

    Lowetide:
    The tone of this thread is getting ugly. I’m not fond of being called a fanboy. I will keep the post up, but am absolutely arguing a point while some are making this personal. Please stop. Thanks.

    Just imagine if you were promoting Crouse for the oilers top pick.

  75. Pouzar says:

    Klima’s_Bucket: You’re right he’s not Doughty. He’s Scott Niedermayer.
    If it takes an extra year for Hanifin to become a multiple cup winning Hall of Fame calibre Dman then so be it.I’ve got spare time. But for your sake…for your daughter’s sake… you might wanna think about buying a quality product from me…

    I don’t remember Niedermayer hitting anybody and he did ok.

  76. Hammers says:

    The way Lander / Hall / XX line is playing we at last have balance for this year and next . Sure Hall could go to a Leon or Roy plus Yak line but this last 2 months other than Roy’s face offs and defensive game they have done well as an O zone start group and for me Lander could end up being our 2nd line center . He presently gets 2nd line tougher minutes anyway . Nelson seems content with his lines right now and if his coach next year I see way more consistency in the lines .

  77. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy:
    Lowetide,

    The same people screaming for Hanifin now may be ripping him a new one over lack of physical play and getting beaten in board battles in 2016-17.

    I think that’s a bit of a strawman.

    If you are going to let those people’s opinion run the team why not trade Marincin and Klefbom for Fistric and Engellend right now?

    Also,

    I did correct my 16/17 to 17/18.

    You’ll see in my original post I said 3 years.

    The 16/17 was a typo and I corrected it.

    Others have said 16-17, re: above. I was addressing the overall view of Hanifin, not specifically your quote (which you did correct above).

  78. GCW_69 says:

    leadfarmer: Look for many years Nashville has been in a better position with 2 defenseman and a goalie and a bunch of random players pieced together than team like Dallas, Colorado, and Edmonton are with some of the best forwards in the league but overall horrible defense.

    This is true. Sadly, I don’t see the Oilers ever getting the goalie. So, the defense had to be even better.

    Unfortunately both Hanifan and Provorov are left shooting defenders. A right hand shot to play with Klefbom or nurse would have been the ultimate.

  79. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Lowetide: Others have said 16-17, re: above. I was addressing the overall view of Hanifin, not specifically your quote (which you did correct above).

    I said 16-17.
    I also said I would be fine waiting another year.
    Sorry if I wasn’t clear.

  80. Pouzar says:

    Does this scouting report sound familiar?

    Assets: An incredibly smooth skater, he moves effortlessly all over the ice. Has great instincts for the blueline position and displays all-around potential. Makes few mistakes with or without the puck. Boasts a good frame to grow into.

    Flaws: Needs to add more bulk, strength and become a greater physical presence in his own end in order to maximize his massive potential. Also needs work on his slap shot from the point, which he’s still timid at using often.

    Career Potential: Excellent puck-moving defenseman with great upside.

  81. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Pouzar: Does this scouting report sound familiar?
    Assets: An incredibly smooth skater, he moves effortlessly all over the ice. Has great instincts for the blueline position and displays all-around potential. Makes few mistakes with or without the puck. Boasts a good frame to grow into.
    Flaws: Needs to add more bulk, strength and become a greater physical presence in his own end in order to maximize his massive potential. Also needs work on his slap shot from the point, which he’s still timid at using often.
    Career Potential: Excellent puck-moving defenseman with great upside.

    Sounds like me…in my prime…

  82. Moose says:

    Prospect Update: Went to the Everett/Spokane game last night and Ben Betker left after his 3rd shift and did not return. Went down awkwardly in the corner after a collision and got up favoring his left arm. I can only assume he was fulfilling the shoulder injury clause in his new Oiler contract. Hopefully it’s nothing long term.

    Gonna check out Barzal, Gropp, Bittner and the rest in the Seattle/Portland series this week as well. Wonder if Bittner might be someone the Oilers look at with he Pitt pick. although the higher the pick gets the less likely that seems, especially if they take a Forward with the lottery pick.

  83. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide,

    Sorry didn’t mean any offense. I meant it in the actual definition of the word: a male, that is very enthusiastic about something, which as people that are spending their Sundays on a blog obviously are. I didn’t realize that somehow along the lines the word has become negative. My apologies.

  84. frjohnk says:

    Pouzar: Assets: An incredibly smooth skater, he moves effortlessly all over the ice. Has great instincts for the blueline position and displays all-around potential. Makes few mistakes with or without the puck. Boasts a good frame to grow into.
    Flaws: Needs to add more bulk, strength and become a greater physical presence in his own end in order to maximize his massive potential. Also needs work on his slap shot from the point, which he’s still timid at using often.
    Career Potential: Excellent puck-moving defenseman with great upside.

    Could be Justin Schultz or OEL.

  85. GCW_69 says:

    Lowetide: Others have said 16-17, re: above. I was addressing the overall view of Hanifin, not specifically your quote (which you did correct above).

    I think some believe Hanifan could make the team by 16/17 and make a difference in 17/18. This may or may not be true, but I think Woodguy’s theory that it’s almost impossible to trade for a franchise defender is probably valid and of it is then it is another factor that needs to be considered when drafting.

    The Oilers have enough young players up front that as long as the separation is minimal between two or three players clustered around their draft spot, it makes sense to consider other criteria.

    Whereas if you are Arizona, starting your rebuild, you take BPA even if the difference is small.

  86. Woodguy says:

    Pouzar:
    Does this scouting report sound familiar?

    Assets:An incredibly smooth skater, he moves effortlessly all over the ice. Has great instincts for the blueline position and displays all-around potential. Makes few mistakes with or without the puck. Boasts a good frame to grow into.

    Flaws:Needs to add more bulk, strength and become a greater physical presence in his own end in order to maximize his massive potential. Also needs work on his slap shot from the point, which he’s still timid at using often.

    Career Potential:Excellent puck-moving defenseman with great upside.

    That’s Jultz’ scouting report.

    It was probably Suter’s too.

  87. thejonrmcleod says:

    LT is consistent about not liking to draft D high. He had Ekblad #4 last year.

  88. rickithebear says:

    Age based NHLE:
    werenski 58p
    ————————-
    Provorov 48Pt
    hanafin 42PT
    Killington 40PT
    ————————-
    Pilon 34PT
    Juulson 34pt
    Levielle 32PT
    Andersson 30PT

  89. GCW_69 says:

    frjohnk: Could be Justin Schultz or OEL.

    Or Petry…

  90. Pouzar says:

    frjohnk: Could be Justin Schultz or OEL.

    OEL

  91. Heinz 57 says:

    Meet MEPA: Most effective prospect available.

    This is a player who does not require 100% ozone starts against the weakest qual-comp for the first three years of his entry-level contract in order to look like he’s progressing at all.

    It’s a player who doesn’t need to be forced into a feature role just to get him his at-bats in the line-up at all.

    It’s a player whose development will progress regardless of whether he’s over-ripening at the AHL level, or ripening by fire in a reasonably suitable role on the NHL roster.

    It’s all the things that Yak wasn’t.

    I’m not saying that Yak was a pick we’ll permanently regret, but he was definitely a major factor in the coaching carousel labelled “you are here”.

    Every team wants a bit of sizzle. Now we’ve got sizzle in spades, supposing that beef is back on the menu sometime this decade.

    How about we draft a prospect who helps the next coach look like a winner, already?

    ———

    Having said that, I’d love to see Woodguy turn his lyrical magic to These Boots Are Made for Walkin’ in the spirit of coke machines past, to be hummed with gusto by our head scout on a sunny day in June, coming soon to a coliseum near you.

    Female lead:

    You keep saying you’ve got something for me.
    something you call phyz’, but confess.
    You’ve been a messin’ where you shouldn’t have been a messin’
    and now someone else is gettin’ sick finesse.

    Head scout:

    These boots are made for walking, and that’s just what they’ll do
    one of these days these boots are gonna walk on down to you.

    Female lead:

    You keep lying, when you oughta be truthin’
    and you keep losin’ when you oughta not bet.
    You keep samin’ when you oughta be a changin’.
    Now what’s right is right, but you ain’t been right yet.

    Male pitchfork chorus:

    These boots are made for walking, and that’s just what they’ll do
    one of these days these boots are gonna walk all over you.

    While my little fiddle is sophomoric, I suspect Woodguy could spin some all-new menacing chapter and hearse.

  92. Gordies Elbow says:

    stush18
    Hanifin- 6’2″ 209 37gp 5g 18a 23 p
    Provorov- 6’0″ 201 60gp 15g 46a 61p
    Werenski- 6’2″ 214 35gp 9g 16a 25p
    Kylington- 6’0″ 174 18 gp 5p SHL

    I’m with you on taking a dman, and maybe 2 in the first round.

    Jeremy Roy- 6’0″ 183 46gp – 5g – 38a – 43pts for Sherbrooke, and a right shooter. Might be the target with the Perron pick. Central had him 23rd, McKeens 22nd, ISS 28th

  93. Pouzar says:

    Gordies Elbow: I’m with you on taking a dman, and maybe 2 in the first round.

    Jeremy Roy- 6’0″ 183 46gp – 5g – 38a – 43pts for Sherbrooke, and a right shooter.Might be the target with the Perron pick. Central had him 23rd, McKeens 22nd, ISS 28th

    I think it’s definitely BPA with that 2nd pick. I like Roy.

  94. rickithebear says:

    leadfarmer:
    Lowetide,

    Sorry didn’t mean any offense.I meant it in the actual definition of the word: a male, that is very enthusiastic about something, which as people that are spending their Sundays on a blog obviously are.I didn’t realize that somehow along the lines the word has become negative.My apologies.

    Spelling & dialects:
    Big issue.
    Defenitions not so much!

    As an Expo; Rider; Detroit lions and post cup oiler fan.
    A lot of suffering
    and
    a Fan Boy!

  95. Doubting Olive says:

    rickithebear:
    Age based NHLE:
    werenski 58p
    ————————-
    Provorov 48Pt
    hanafin 42PT
    Killington 40PT
    ————————-
    Pilon 34PT
    Juulson 34pt
    Levielle 32PT
    Andersson 30PT

    lb/ft and starsigns?

    That reminds me, I have to torque the wheel nuts on my Taurus.

  96. blainer says:

    Hammers:
    LT I must agree with you on this and personally feel our lines as set right now are balanced even with Roy playing 2nd line “C” . Leon is the perfect player as our next winger or “C” to play or be called up or as woodguy surmised within 5 games. Let him play a bit on the wing if he has to and with his size , strength and smarts he would fit right in .Many knock Pouliot and Purcell but add Leon and you have 3 big men on your top 3 lines .

    Agreed.. I would like to see a line of Hall Sobotka and Dry next year. Putting Dry with Yak is not gonna work yet. I am still good with him in the A for a while though. I do like the idea of Hanifan but doubt MacT drafts him based on his physical game.

  97. rickithebear says:

    Damn is not working

    Oilers SM dmen RD 1 and 2
    2010 #46 Marincin
    2011 #21 Klefbom
    2011 #31 Musil Foot speed
    2013 #7 Nurse

    Oilers SM Dmen RD 3-5
    2008 #103 Motin
    200 #71 hesketh
    200 #XX Bigos footspeed
    2010 #X1 Blain
    2011 #X2 Simpson
    2011 #122 Gernat
    2012 #X3 Gustaffson
    2012 #123 Laleggia
    2014 #1 Lagesson SE JC @18

    Oilers D RD 6 & 7
    2010 #162 Davidson
    2013 #158 Betker

  98. godot10 says:

    Management should plan for next season as if Nurse and Draisaitl are going to spend the full season in the AHL, and Hanifin the year in college or in the AHL.

    To do anything else is folly.

  99. slambanna says:

    rickithebear:
    Age based NHLE:
    werenski 58p
    ————————-
    Provorov 48Pt
    hanafin 42PT
    Killington 40PT
    ————————-
    Pilon 34PT
    Juulson 34pt
    Levielle 32PT
    Andersson 30PT

    Just Curious.. why no Van Sompel

    I like your inclusion of Rasmus Andersson here. I’ve only seen his name pop up a handful of times in this blog (comments section). Somehow RA a PPG! defenceman seems to left off as many top 60 lists as he is included on.

    This draft is ridiculous.

    I’ve been secretly hoping to here his name announced as the Oilers 3rd rounder. He caught my eye in a discombobulated prospects game performance. I badly need another viewing. There’s major lack of scouting reports on this guy.

  100. nelson88 says:

    Apologies if this has been posted before but the mood needs to be lightened.

    Awoke to this trolling from a Flames fan. We really need to turn this thing around.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0OXg2U32RUU&app=desktop

    oh ya, and we are something like 4-1-2 in our last seven games including a mix of western opponents. If this management team could stop tripping over themselves there is hope.

  101. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear: Rasmus Andersson

    No love for Mitchel Vande Sompel?

    5’10” – 180lbs
    Turned 18 on Feb 18.
    1.09pts/gm
    25.5%IPP

    That’s pretty unreal for someone who never gets mentioned.

    According to chlstats.com he leads all draft eligible OHL Dmen in 5v5 pt/60 with 2.54

    Provorov has 2.66.

  102. Pouzar says:

    wait for it…

  103. nelson88 says:

    slambanna,

    HockeyDB has Rasmus Andersson as a LW for the Barrie Colts? Wrong guy or perhaps that is why he is flying under the radar 🙂

  104. Gerta Rauss says:

    LT/Danny
    Just a heads up that I recieved an email this morning from godaddy reminding you that the lowetide dot ca domain is up for renewal April 28.(odd that my email address is still attached to the domain, but no worries)

    It might just be spam but it looks official.

    I know you guys are on it, I just thought I’d pass this along in case I’m the only one getting email alerts.

  105. Lowetide says:

    thejonrmcleod:
    LT is consistent about not liking to draft D high. He had Ekblad #4 last year.

    Oh yeah, it’s absolutely an issue imo. Then again, the guy I had No. 1 overall missed most of the season with an injury.

  106. Gerta Rauss says:

    Swedishposter posted this late last night and I thought I’d pass it along again this morning. I’m still a Hanifan guy until someone changes my mind but if Marner can play C effectively that does add something to the conversation re: picking 3/4/5

    One thing to take into account in the Marner vs Strome debate is that Marner plays center. He’s mainly been played at wing this year, but he’s had games at center. From what I’ve seen he looks better at C and from what I gather from people who sees the majority of his games that holds true. And he played center in playoff game #1, was the best player on the ice and scoring twice. Clearly his coaches trust him enough to roll him out to play center in a playoff game and he does exceptional with it. That does sound like a legit center to me. He’ll return to the OHL next year and likely spend the whole season as the #1C

  107. Lowetide says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    LT/Danny
    Just a heads up that I recieved an email this morning from godaddy reminding you that the lowetide dot ca domain is up for renewal April 28.(odd that my email address is still attached to the domain, but no worries)

    It might just be spam but it looks official.

    I know you guys are on it, I just thought I’d pass this along in case I’m the only one getting email alerts.

    Yeah, I’m on it! My wife left with my wallet (accidentally I’m sure!) but will be back from shopping soon. I’m hoping to finally get that update done at the same time, may have to wait a day.

  108. slambanna says:

    nelson88:
    slambanna,

    HockeyDB has Rasmus Andersson as a LW for the Barrie Colts? Wrong guy or perhaps that is why he is flying under the radar

    Classic HockeyDB anomaly. He’s reported as a D everywhere else.

    Since this is the only in depth “article” google finds on him and the term fanboy is be bandied about today I’ll link it: http://thehockeywriters.com/rasmus-andersson-aaron-ekblad-2-0/

    The article was written Oct 10 2014 and employs some optimism to say the least.

  109. pts2pndr says:

    I think that either Hanafin or Strome with the 3-5 pick then a second defenseman with the Pit pic.
    The only no way in the world pick would be Marner. With the current roster , SIZE matters!

  110. nelson88 says:

    slambanna,

    Ya, after some digging I saw he was listed as a D at Elite Prospects. Hadn’t heard of him but real intriguing prospect and would be great paired with Klefbom. I was a Juulsen guy with that 2nd round pick but there are plenty of great D prospects in this draft that should flow well into the 3rd or 4th round.

  111. stevezie says:

    nelson88: the mood needs to be lightened.

    Okay.

    The nation’s top spy agency has an opening for a field agent. After a long, ruthless and gruelling recruitment process, three women are selected and called in for a final interview at a secret location. The women wait in a dark room that, apart from the entrance, has three doors.

    The spy-master arrives and addresses the candidates.

    “You all know why you’re here. You’ve all shown you have what it takes. Only one test remains.”

    And with that he hands a pistol to candidate number one and instructs her to go through door number one. In that room, she is told, she will find a man tied to a chair. She is to execute him.

    Candidate number one goes through the door, and immediately turns back.

    “I cannot!” She says. Of course she cannot! It is her husband in the chair! The spy-master nods, takes the pistol back, and asks the woman to leave.

    He then hands the pistol to the second woman with same instructions. She takes the weapon and goes through door number two. This time there is a very pregnant pause. But after, a few too many moments of silence, she comes back out with her head down, and no shots fired. Wordlessly she returns the pistol to the spy-master, who grimly accepts and motions for her to leave and not come back. The failure weighs heavy upon her, but how could she have done it? It was her husband in the chair!

    The spy-master then turns to the final candidate and hands her the gun. No words are spoken; none are needed. The woman pauses, steels herself, and then gravely walks into room number three.

    Again there is a pause.

    Then a CLICK.

    CLICK.

    CLICK CLICK CLICK!

    Then a BAM! BOOM! SMASH!

    There is a veritable cacophony of onomatopoeia harmonizing with grunts, groans, violence and chaos.

    Finally the woman emerges from room number three. The is breathing heavily, has ripped clothes, scratch marks one her forearms, and a victorious grim. Still panting, she slaps the pistol back into the spy-master’s hands.

    “Some… some joker took the bullets out of that gun. I had to beat the idiot to death with chair!”

    As you were.

  112. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    I had Ekblad 8th IIRC. so there.

    Strome is the pick.

    Also, every team ever takes the BPA. always.

  113. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    I had Ekblad 8th IIRC. so there.

    Strome is the pick.

    Also, every team ever takes the BPA. always.

    Strome would be my pick but I worry about the speed.

  114. Pouzar says:

    Lowetide: Strome would be my pick but I worry about the speed.

    You said BPA was Marner?

  115. blainer says:

    Central scouting sound like they are leaning towards Provorov as the top D in the draft..

  116. Pouzar says:

    blainer:
    Central scouting sound like they are leaning towards Provorov as the top D in the draft..

    I am not sold on Provorov over Hanifin at all. Somebody convince me.

  117. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy: SCREW YOU MITCHELL!!!

    Don’t forget the horse he rode in on.

  118. pocession charge says:

    Lowetide:
    I’m not fond of being called a fanboy.

    So you finally stopped cheering for the Oilers, eh?

  119. Lowetide says:

    Pouzar: You said BPA was Marner?

    Yes, because Strome has foot speed issues.

  120. Pouzar says:

    Lowetide: Yes, because Strome has foot speed issues.

    Oh I see “would”.

  121. Lowetide says:

    RexLibris: Don’t forget the horse he rode in on.

    shot the horse. Ate it. Was a little gamey by week two.

  122. smellyglove says:

    For the life of me I can’t figure out how Hanifin isn’t #3 on everyone’s lists. He’s the consensus #3 guy on the lists of others (BMac. et al) and fills a big need (D, impact D) for the Oilers. He’s a young guy with elite skills tearing up the NCAA in a difficult position.

    Sure, you never know how D are going to turn out, but if they can skate and they’re smart, they’re generally a good bet.

    With regards to Strome/Marner/others–how can you tell if a player will play C in the big leagues? So many offensive dynamos in junior get converted into wingers. I suppose it depends on their commitment to defense, size, and FO%, but sometimes it seems like voodoo.

    Will Marner play C in the NHL? If he turns out to be a 65 point winger, does that counterbalance against Strome as a 55 point C?

  123. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: Strome would be my pick but I worry about the speed.

    Is his speed any more of a concern than it was for Draisaitl in his draft year?

    Big point-producing C. His scouting report reads a lot like Draisaitl’s with a little more offensive punch and slightly less defensive acumen, but those can be priorities of coaching rather than real skill deficiencies.

    Skating can also be coached and improved upon.

    I like all of Strome, Marner, Hanifin and Provorov. At this point I almost don’t care who they take. Almost. Any of them could likely become a very valuable part of this team’s future.

  124. Kmart99 says:

    I like Marner. His offense and skating are just too good to pass up. The odds of Hanifin being the BPA is far less likely. History tells us this when drafting dmen high in the first rd. They aren’t voodoo like goalies, but scouts across the league make mistakes on evaluating young d prospects far more often then they do on wingers and centers.

    Also, since the last two high picks were a d man and a Centre, and Perron has been shipped off, the depth on W is getting real thin.

    If I’m MacT I’m not willing to wait 3 years to find out if Hanifin can be a #1. I’d sooner package the pick for a 25-28 yr old#1-2 dman. Or draft Marner.

    But winning the lottery will make this all so much easier.

  125. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: shot the horse. Ate it. Was a little gamey by week two.

    Well, we have been wandering in the desert for some time now…(cue music https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fFYt6w7XXUY)

  126. Gordies Elbow says:

    Pouzar,

    I haven’t seen Hanifin live, but as an Oil Kings fan, I’ve seen Provorov, and he’s really good.

    From what I’ve read, Provorov is more physical than Hanifin, and has a better slapshot. From watching him, he has excellent mobility, and is heads up player. Good outlet passes, strong on the boards. Heavy at 200lbs at 17.,

    Coached by Kelly McCrimmon, who is a heck of a Junior coach.

    If you want to see him live, puck drops at 7pm.

  127. Hammers says:

    This may or may not be a fair question but why are college “D” given more rave reviews than Canada’s junior players . They play less games ; there older and should be more mature . Specifically I’m trying to compare Hanifin to Provorov .. I chose Provorov because I’m trying to compare or guess what each will look like at say 25 . LT is right about “D” and a player like Shea Weber is proof , having been picked so low against say Suter . Give Provorov that other 4 years ( I think 4 ) of experience Hanifin has then make your decisions .

  128. Dashingsilverfox says:

    RexLibris: Is his speed any more of a concern than it was for Draisaitl in his draft year?

    Big point-producing C. His scouting report reads a lot like Draisaitl’s with a little more offensive punch and slightly less defensive acumen, but those can be priorities of coaching rather than real skill deficiencies.

    Skating can also be coached and improved upon.

    I like all of Strome, Marner, Hanifin and Provorov. At this point I almost don’t care who they take. Almost. Any of them could likely become a very valuable part of this team’s future.

    Go back and take a look at the scouting reports on Anze Kopitar…they all mention foot speed as an issue.

  129. Gordies Elbow says:

    Hammers,

    NCAA hockey is harder to play, as there are older, more experienced players.

    Hanifin entered Boston College at 17. Hanifin is 12 days younger than Provorov, with both being January 1997 births.

  130. godot10 says:

    Gordies Elbow:
    Pouzar,

    From what I’ve read, Provorov is more physical than Hanifin, and has a better slapshot. From watching him, he has excellent mobility, and is heads up player. Good outlet passes, strong on the boards. Heavy at 200lbs at 17.,

    Provorov “appears” more physical because he is a boy playing against boys. Hanifin is a boy playing against men. And at 200 pounds and 6 ft (hockeydb), Provorov is NOT likely to get much bigger…i.e. he is a physically matured boy playing against boys vs Hanifin playing against men.

    Provorov is big enough, but at his size, he is not going to be physically dominant in the NHL. Hanifan is going to be 6’3 or 6’4 and probably fill out at 220-230 pounds. He will be able to lean on NHL big boys, unlike Provorov.

  131. grim.oil says:

    McDavid #1 all year. Eichel #2 all year. Hanifan #3 all year. Strome #4 all year. Marner #5 only recently…. So how is it Marner is BPA? Hanifan is and has been #3 BPA and #1 player by need for the Oilers all year. The D on the Oilers is absolute garbage. If the Oil pick 3rd than Hanifan is the guy, hands down. Unless a serious ‘hockey trade’ is made. Like if Eberle gets traded for a solid D-man than maybe they draft Marner although I think they may still prefer the size route with Strome. Either way this is all pointless because the draft is going to go: McDavid (OIL via PIT), Eichel (BUF), Hanifan (OIL), than I don’t care as I will have beer to drink! Go Oilers! Go Yotes (I just threw up in my mouth a little bit) and goo to whoever is playing The Penguins.

  132. blainer says:

    Pouzar: I am not sold on Provorov over Hanifin at all. Somebody convince me.

    Really don’t know much about either. I will be happy if Hanifan turns into Weber or if Provorov turns into Doughty.. Just don’t pick the next Cam Barker with the pick being that high..

  133. prefonmich says:

    grim.oil,

    There is so much discussion around our first draft pick this year. I would be happy with any of the ones discussed so far. We need elite D, we need more NHL centres, we need more skill and speed on the wing BUT the bigger issue and biggest NEED is for a manager who is willing to surround these kids with strong, capable mentors.

    Anaheim’s D, for example is very young, but their top minute guy is Francois Beauchemin who can defend and still score some. Florida as well, with Ekblad has Mitchell and Campbell, two very different guys but both much more capable than our captain Andrew Ference.
    Yakupov has mentioned on numerous occasions the value of having an experienced guy to mentor him and Roy isn’t even that great but miles better than having a team full of rookies.
    On our top line, you can see the difference that Pouliot has made to be on the top line- he plays smart from his experience. You need at least one guy on each line with some smarts and experience and you need at least 3 D of this same variety. Ference is a bottom pairing option at the ABSOLUTE most (I personally think he should be bought out), Fayne is a second pairing mentor (at most) and we continue to need a top pairing D mentor.
    I think this team is closer than the standings show or the league ‘experts’ realize but we need more than anything a shrewd GM who is willing to build smartly around the youth. Unfortunately, our current GM has proven to be far from shrewd. We wait…

  134. Gordies Elbow says:

    godot10,

    Yep. The other thing to take into consideration is that he was the only Freshman defender on BC. He compared very favorably to 2012 NHL Entry Draft #23rd overall pick Michael Matheson, as a 17-18 year old.

    Personally, I’d still lean towards Hanifin. His coach (Greg Brown) said “In baseball you would call him a five-tool player. His skating is elite; he plays with his head up, so his vision is excellent, and he moves the puck up quickly and accurately. He reads the play and reacts very well. There are no holes in his game that will hold him back at the next level.”

  135. G Money says:

    *** SPAM ALERT ***

    Please take the survey linked here:

    https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/03/29/who-should-the-oilers-draft/

    Given all the controversy, it’s a one-question survey: who would you draft? I’ll post the results when done.

    ******

    I spent a few hours Friday messing about with blogging tools.

    After much consideration, I settled on WordPress, and have finally created my own blog… which I’ve officially dubbed “OilersNerdAlert”.

    After a few days of messing about, I’ve got it loaded up with the first few posts, links to the data I’ve been generating, references, and a few other tidbits.

    I figured it’s about time I let folks know about it!

    If you do visit it, whether generally speaking or to take the survey above, feedback would be appreciated.

  136. Pouzar says:

    Gordies Elbow:
    Pouzar,

    I haven’t seen Hanifin live, but as an Oil Kings fan, I’ve seen Provorov, and he’s really good.

    From what I’ve read, Provorov is more physical than Hanifin, and has a better slapshot. From watching him, he has excellent mobility, and is heads up player. Good outlet passes, strong on the boards. Heavy at 200lbs at 17.,

    Coached byKelly McCrimmon, who is a heck of a Junior coach.

    If you want to see him live, puck drops at 7pm.

    Thanks for that.

  137. Pouzar says:

    godot10: Provorov “appears” more physical because he is a boy playing against boys.Hanifin is a boy playing against men. And at 200 pounds and 6 ft (hockeydb), Provorov is NOT likely to get much bigger…i.e. he is a physically matured boy playing against boys vs Hanifin playing against men.

    Provorov is big enough, but at his size, he is not going to be physically dominant in the NHL.Hanifan is going to be 6’3 or 6’4 and probably fill out at 220-230 pounds.He will be able to lean on NHL big boys, unlike Provorov.

    Agreed.

  138. Pouzar says:

    RexLibris: Is his speed any more of a concern than it was for Draisaitl in his draft year?

    Big point-producing C. His scouting report reads a lot like Draisaitl’s with a little more offensive punch and slightly less defensive acumen, but those can be priorities of coaching rather than real skill deficiencies.

    Skating can also be coached and improved upon.

    I like all of Strome, Marner, Hanifin and Provorov. At this point I almost don’t care who they take. Almost. Any of them could likely become a very valuable part of this team’s future.

    I would be interested in finding out what Strome’s top end speed is. We know Drai’s is pretty darn good. Seeing Drai live was an eye opener in that regard.

  139. rickithebear says:

    WG & Slambana.

    Path to the net.
    Muscle based lb/in

    The Kids size.

    1 of 6 d.
    3rd pir at even.
    Laleggia 5’10” 185lb

  140. godot10 says:

    The other thing with drafting D high is that you have to focus on what is important.

    Bogosian is more physical with a much better shot than Pieterangelo, but Pieterangelo is the better skater and passer. (Hanifin is probably in the Pieterangelo class of physicality).

    Bogosian was drafted before Pieterangelo. Who is the better D? Pieterangelo.

    High drafted D who weren’t particularly physical without a great shot, but elite passers and skaters.

    Niedermayer, Brewer, Bouwmeester, Pieterangelo, Suter.

    Shattenkirk has a great shot, and get all the power play time, but Bouwmeester and Pieterangelo eat up all the tough minutes.

  141. Marc says:

    So I actually started drafting this post for the Winnipeg GDT, but it took me a while to finish. It’s about Schultz’s development, so not entirely on topic, but some might find it interesting. Apologies for the length.

    A month or so ago I did a post that argued that it’s a mistake to look at Yak’s development by reference to his draft position, and instead suggested that Kessel is a better comparator than his fellow first round picks. I think it’s a similar mistake to look at Schultz’s development purely in terms of his age.

    It’s interesting to compare his development path to an actual Norris candidate – Mark Giordano.

    Both were in Jr A in their draft year. Schultz was one of the younger players in his draft class, missing the 2009 cut off by two months. Giordano was one of the oldest in his, missing the cut off for the 2001 draft by just two weeks. Schultz put up 48 pts in 67 games and was a second round pick. Giordano put up 37 pts in 48 games and went undrafted.

    From there Giordano went to the OHL for two seasons, where he put up 52 pts in 72 games his 19 year old year and 53 pts in 72 games his 20 year old year. He signed with Calgary as a UFA and spent two seasons in the AHL, where he put up 17 pts in 77 games his first year and then made the leap his second year, putting up 58 pts in 73 games.

    Schultz on the hand, stayed in Jr A his draft +1 year for some reason (I haven’t seen any explanation for this online, though it may have been because of his age. He only turned 18 a couple weeks after the draft.). He did well – 53 pts in 55 games – but in one of the lowest quality development leagues. He then spent three years in college, where he put up 113 pts in 121 games and became a highly sought after free agent. In his AHL debut the following year he was utterly dominant, scoring 48 pts in 34 games.

    It’s worth pausing here. In the two seasons after his draft year, Giordano played 144 games in a high quality development league. In the FOUR seasons after his draft year on the other hand, Schultz played only 176 games, and 55 of them were in a very low quality development league. Giordano then played 150 pro games before making his NHL debut, whereas Schultz played only 34.

    Both Giordano and Schultz made their NHL debuts at the age of 22 and both played 48 games. Giordano joined a deep Calgary team that was one of the best in the West, and he struggled to establish himself. He was returned to the AHL several times and healthy scratched for 20+ games. He ended up averaging 9 sheltered EV minutes per game, putting up 9 EV pts and 6 more on the PP. Despite his OZ push, his P/60 was 1.25. He did have a CF% of 53.51 though.
    Schultz on the other hand joined a terrible Oilers teams with perhaps 1 decent D (Petry) and no one on D who really scored that much. So he averaged 17 non-sheltered EV minutes a game with a weak partner, and got absolutely clobbered in terms of possession – CF% of 43.88. He got no zone start push and put up 11 EV pts (0.82 P/60) and 15 more on the PP (where he averaged 3+ minutes per game).

    Giordano didn’t do enough with his sheltered minutes his rookie season to convince Calgary to give him a one way deal, so he headed off to the KHL the next season, putting up 19 points in 59 games. Schultz get more of the same his sophomore season – 17+ non-sheltered EV minutes a game with another shitty partner, and a sparkling CF% of 42.86. He put up 19 EV pts (0.89 P/60) and 12 more on the PP (where again he averaged 3+ minutes per game).

    Giordano comes back to Calgary the following season and wins a regular spot. He gets much the same treatment as in his rookie year – 12.5 sheltered EV minutes per game. He puts up 13 EV pts (1.1 P/60) and 6 more on the PP, and an outstanding CF% of 59.86.

    Schultz finally gets treatment similar to that Giordano got his rookie year ie. a decent partner and lots of OZ starts, albeit with 18 EV minutes a game and on a terrible team. He finally puts up positive possession numbers (barely) – a CF% of 50.42. He’s currently at 18 EV pts and 10 more on the PP. (Weirdly, despite his OZ push, his P/60 has actually fallen to 0.80. Improved possession numbers and better zone starts should in theory lead to higher scoring, but Schultz’s scoring numbers were actually better when he wasn’t getting a OZ push and his team had less of the puck. It may be that he’s just been unlucky though, his shooting percentage is lower than last season and less than half of what it was his rookie year. He’s taking fewer shots per game compared to his rookie season as well.)

    A few observations:
    – Prior to that first season as a regular NHL player, Giordano had play 276 pro games in the AHL, KHL and NHL.
    – To put that into context, barring injury Schultz will play his 276th pro game some time in January of next year. He’ll be 25 and a half.
    – Giordano entered the NHL in the best possible circumstances – good team, good partner, limited sheltered minutes, and he still took a couple of years to establish himself. He wasn’t a regular NHL player until he was 25. He was still being sheltered until his 26 year old season.

    In Giordano’s first season as an effective all around top four Dman (age 26) he played 15.4 EV minutes per game, with no OZ push, but not tough minutes either. He put up 16 EV pts (0.77 P/60) and 13 more on the PP, with CF% of 54.68. So nice, but no suggestion that there might be a Norris Trophy in his future.

    Over the next few seasons though, he gradually started playing more minutes – a couple seasons at 16.5 minutes and then a couple more at 17.5. His minutes gradually got tougher, bringing down his EV scoring somewhat (to 0.59 P/60). His PP production was erratic, averaging 2.5 min some seasons and 3.5 min others, and scoring better than 5 P/60 some seasons and less than 2 P/60in others.

    In his 30 year old season everything came together. Giordano played 17.5 EV minutes per game, with the toughest zone starts of his career and managed a CF% of 53.35. His EV P/60 jumped to 1.17 and he was dominant on the PP, with a P/60 of 5.5 on an average of 3.4 PP min/game. He’s been considered one of the very best D in the NHL ever since.

    We know that D learn to process the game at very different speeds. Some are effective in the NHL less than 100 pro games under their belt, and good/very good by the time they get to 300 games experience. Others, like Giordano, take a lot longer. Just because a Dman is slower to develop however, does not mean that they are incapable of becoming a good, or even great, player.

    Unlike Giordano, Schultz came into the league in the worst possible circumstances – bad team, bad partner, no place to hide. He had had fewer games, spread over more seasons, as a developing prospect, and had a fraction of Giordano’s pro experience. And unlike undrafted Giordano, he carried the expectations that come with being one of the league’s most famous prospects.

    We’ve never seen Schultz play on a good team ie. with forwards that consistently give the D a good passing option when leaving the zone and cover when the D activates. We’ve only recently seen him used in a manner appropriate to his experience ie. a decent partner and lots of OZ starts. And we don’t what Schultz will look like when he’s played enough games for the game to finally slow down for him.

    It may well be that Schultz never manages to put it all together. Some highly gifted players never do. But at this point we are miles and miles and miles from knowing what we have here.

  142. Unicorns says:

    GCW_69: This is true. Sadly, I don’t see the Oilers ever getting the goalie.So, the defense had to be even better.

    Unfortunately both Hanifan and Provorov are left shooting defenders.A right hand shot to play with Klefbom or nurse would have been the ultimate.

    It might work out pretty nicely if the Oilers take a forward with their first and pick up Roy with Pitts first if he’s there. Like Provo 6′ but he’s apparently strong, and really that’s what its about, playing strong and not avoiding physical play which I think makes a player susceptible to being picked on to get them off their game.

    He prides himself on vision, wants to model his game after Doughty and Pietro, and plans to learn how to tie up and angle out players like Suter does which is the best way because it works and avoids injuries that hits always bring. He’s mobile, has a right shot, I think would be a great complement to one of the bigger LD. I really like this kid for the Oilers.

    I would deal second rounders and a prospect in any trade, there’s an awful lot still around this year inthe 20’s.

  143. GCW_69 says:

    Kmart99: If I’m MacT I’m not willing to wait 3 years to find out if Hanifin can be a #1. I’d sooner package the pick for a 25-28 yr old#1-2 dman.

    Not sure if you were following but these trades rarely happen any more. As long as that stays the case, teams are going to have to take a little more risk at the draft.

  144. SwedishPoster says:

    Pouzar,

    From what I’ve seen of Strome, as with all CHLers for me limited viewings, he is technically a better skater but is less explosive compared with Drai who is choppy and a bit straight legged when skating, in particular his first few steps, but has good sprint explosiveness. Imo Drais issues are more fixable with the help of a good skating coach. Adding strength might ofc help Strome find more power to his stride, especially at his size, but some guys are natural sprinters others aren’t so in my book it’s trickier to improve. Will it hold him back? That’s for the real scouts to decide. He doesn’t seem to create chances based off of overtaking players or using his speed so it shouldn’t kill his style of game.

  145. Gordies Elbow says:

    godot10:
    The other thing with drafting D high is that you have to focus on what is important.

    Bogosian is more physical with a much better shot than Pieterangelo, but Pieterangelo is the better skater and passer.(Hanifin is probably in the Pieterangelo class of physicality).

    Bogosian was drafted before Pieterangelo. Who is the better D?Pieterangelo.

    High drafted D who weren’t particularly physical without a great shot, but elite passers and skaters.

    Niedermayer, Brewer, Bouwmeester, Pieterangelo, Suter.

    Shattenkirk has a great shot, and get all the power play time, but Bouwmeester and Pieterangelo eat up all the tough minutes.

    Excellent post.

    One other thing to take into consideration, we already have drafted a player in the Bogosian mold.

    I think that Nurse-Hanifin has more range than Nurse-Provorov, for example.

  146. sliderule says:

    I tried to find comparibles for Hanifin drafted out of NCAA.Best I could find
    Hanifin 37g5-18-23
    Mark Stuart 38g3-17-20
    Thelen 42g 11-23 -36 drafted 12 th never played a game ouch.
    The two Johnsons were drafted out of USHL so don’t compare but there first year college was similar to Hanifin but theirs was in draft plus 1

    Proverov has a number of comparibles
    Proverov 60g15-46-61
    Eckblad 58g23-30-53
    Jones 61 g14-42-56
    Hamilton 67g 12-46-58
    Similar scoring for these players but they are all 4-5 inches taller and projected much bigger than Proverov at 6ft 200 lbs.
    Eckblad went 1,Jones 4 and Hamilton 9th.

    To my eyes Proverov is a nice skater but nothing special.
    Hanifin at WJC really impressed with his skating In yesterday’s frozen four he didn’t skate as well he even looked a little awkward at times.Injured perhaps?
    Those of you who watched what did you think.

  147. SwedishPoster says:

    Marc,

    Nicely put together and I agree. Far to early to give up on Schultz, he has gotten one hell of a baptism by fire. He’s also not nearly as terrible as has become the general consensus. Lot of issues but not the Cam Barker level the overall fan narrative suggest.

  148. G Money says:

    Marc,

    Interesting comparison.

    There are reasons for having some measure of patience with Jultz, and you’ve outlined pretty much all of them.

    You could also add that Giordano flew under the radar with no pressure or expectations until he was actually a Norris contender, while Schultz’s GM labelled him a Norris contender somewhere between five and infinity years early.

    That said, I (personally) don’t have a problem with the Oilers keeping Jultz.

    The real issues that make Jultz challenging are:

    – Context. No team can afford to have all of Ference, Nikitin, and Jultz in their Top 6. One, yes. Three, never. If I had my druthers, of those three I’d keep Jultz. But I won’t have my druthers, MacT will. And MacT will keep those three and ship Nartin Narincin out, while playing the hell out of Mikita Mikitin.

    – Cost. The biggest issue with keeping Jultz is that (in his mind he’s certain that) he is a Norris contender and that costs big bucks. The Oilers can only keep Jultz if he recognizes that he’s defensively terrible, is miles and miles away from being a capable Top 4 defender, and should be paid like a third pairing guy. What are the chances of that?

  149. G Money says:

    Holy smokes, LT, you are efficient!

    I was going to ask politely if you could add the new blog to your blog roll, and I see that it’s already done!

    Thanks, mang.

  150. maudite says:

    I’m not sure if it can be done but:

    If you could trade predraft lottery order, our 1st, pitts 1st and our 2016 1st (or shultz if you could sell that) for OEL or Giordano?

    The chance at Mcdavid is pretty alluring and phoenix has done everything they can to get in the picture. I look at the forwards and we are not far. If we go waiting for the defense it might never be close though. I’m not sure what it would take but I think I would be fine with the logic of spending significant assets to really right the ship here.

  151. frjohnk says:

    G Money:
    *** SPAM ALERT ***

    Please take the survey linked here:

    https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/03/29/who-should-the-oilers-draft/

    Given all the controversy, it’s a one-question survey: who would you draft?I’ll post the results when done.

    ******

    I spent a few hours Friday messing about with blogging tools.

    After much consideration, I settled on WordPress, and have finally created my own blog… which I’ve officially dubbed “OilersNerdAlert”.

    After a few days of messing about, I’ve got it loaded up with the first few posts, links to the data I’ve been generating, references, and a few other tidbits.

    I figured it’s about time I let folks know about it!

    If you do visit it, whether generally speaking or to take the survey above, feedback would be appreciated.

    Beauty!

    Got it bookmarked.

    Don’t be like Woodguy and do 1 post every 2 months or so.

    Will definitely be waiting for this:

    “Add shot quality location indicators – low, medium, high, specific to shot type”

  152. Lowetide says:

    G Money:
    Holy smokes, LT, you are efficient!

    I was going to ask politely if you could add the new blog to your blog roll, and I see that it’s already done!

    Thanks, mang.

    No worries! One day when I get time I’ll clean up that area. There’s some oustanding newer ones, WG, DSF, others in there.

  153. John Chambers says:

    maudite,

    I would argue that the Oilers now have the assets required to pursue an impact C or D. As compared to a year ago we are in a position where we have depth at C and an emerging young D corps, thereby making our draft picks expendable.

    Suffice it to say I would be elated to see us trade both of our first round picks as well as our 2016 1st AND Justin Schultz AND Nikita Nikitin for OEL and Martin Hanzal.

    But it’ll never happen and we’ll be lucky to see us sign Cody Franson and trade for Carl Gunnarsson.

  154. prefonmich says:

    Marc,

    I agree. And Petry is another example of a guy mismanaged by a poor team. We all know how the story ends. Everyone is frustrated with Schultz when the real problem doesn’t lie with the player but with the management of said player. I hate to say it but Calgary manages their prospects properly and the Oilers do not, to this point in time anyway. I am really hoping that will change otherwise the 30th ish finishes are bound to continue.

  155. Pouzar says:

    Dat Marner kid has got it goin today.

  156. speeds says:

    It’s often said that elite D don’t get moved. Has anyone made a comprehensive list of D vs F trades to see which ones are moved more frequently? I’m not saying D aren’t moved less, but who are the guys that have been, since the 2005 cap? And where is the cut off? I mean, truly elite F’s are not moved that frequently either, or are they?

  157. Zelepukin says:

    I use to believe in the idea that Nurse, Hanifin or whatever top D draft pick we have, should start with a couple years in the AHL, but then I remember that Jultz basically ran the shit out of that league in his short stint (yes he had the top guns with him to help pad his stats).

    Either way you have to give these guys a shot in the show and see how they handle it.

  158. jfry says:

    i’ve gotta be honest. this is the worst time of year for this blog and comments. the oil are out of the playoffs and we’re excited for the lottery and we all become GMs, and it’s like we forget all about advanced stats and removing bias.

    everyone is always BPA until it appears that we have a solid top 6 F, and our need is D (next year!), or whatever. then godot comes in with his #justSayMurray … and then we start saying things like arizona is going to draft Hanifin because he’s American and they can market him, or that they’re not going to draft him because they already have OEL. there’s just so much radio call in show conjecture. and i come here to avoid all that stuff, to be honest. this blog is about informed opinions, not just opinions.

    i know armchair GMing is kinda fun, but it’s amazing that we can get to 160 comments on a sunday and no one has posted a decent link to an article or stats, or even some decent twitter stuff.

    so, everyone is going on and on about how hard it is to get a top 2 dman in trade, but no one has talked about how easy it is to get a 35 goal scorer in a trade? the truth is that good players very rarely get traded, regardless of position. doesn’t matter if it’s goalie, center, d or wing.

    i know we see a hole in our d pipeline, but our c and d and g are equally thin. BPA, just like every

    anyhow, i love the comments section of this blog, but somedays it’s just guys pounding chests which i can do with friends at the water cooler. i like the smart stuff people have to say here.

    so, here’s a list of 35 goal scorers that have been traded since our last stanley appearance, that are under 30 years old:
    seguin (wasn’t a 35 goal scorer until after trade)

    over 30 years old:
    st. louis
    kesler (1 time)
    spezza (34 3 times)
    vanek (hasn’t had a 35 goal season since we offer sheeted him)
    iginla

    from here: http://www.nhltradetracker.com/user/biggest_trade_list

    myers was traded this year for a guy who hasn’t scored more than 19 goals, except for one season at 30. you could say that it’s easier to trade for top end dman and you wouldn’t be wrong. anyhow. that’s not what i’m arguing. i think it’s easy to make lists of trades. bottom line is that impact players don’t get traded much.

    i just feel like all of a sudden we’ve really started developing a “dman or bust” because ference (who wasn’t good in calgary or boston and we all knew it), nikitin (who we knew sucked), etc and then we see our pipeline not developing with musil, gernat. i think it’s fair to say yakimov has been a little slow developing (compared to how we wanted him to this year) and we have no one on the wings either. and we only have broissoit in net. we’re thin EVERYWHERE. BPA, always. ALWAYS.

    this draft isn’t helping our team next year. that’s a different topic. this draft is about 3 years from now.

    to me there’s three separate issues: 1) our current d is a tire fire. 2) our d (and all position) pipeline is bad. 3) there’s a draft coming up.

    we’re blending all three of those topics into one big lump of “maybe we should draft for need” and i don’t get it.

    now, if we could get back to talking about temporal corsi and fenwick close as a betting tool, i’d love you all!!! serioiusly, i made a killing, betting during last year’s playoffs because of the stuff i’ve learned here.

  159. jfry says:

    @speeds

    i highlighted some forward trades above. it’s slim.

  160. speeds says:

    Woodguy:
    Back to Dmen and the draft for a second (hope you don’t mind LT)

    I want to be clear that Provorov is an elite prospect as well.

    He too made his National U20 team as a 17 year old this year.

    He’s scoring at 1pt/gm pace.

    He’s got a 21%IPP (Ekblad has 23%)

    He may well be the best Dman available this year.

    I’m fine with either him or Hanifin.

    Everyone says “BPA, don’t draft for need” and 99.5% of the time in regards to the NHL you would be right.

    Where you are not right is the exact position the Oilers are in today.

    They have 3 elite Forwards on long term contract.
    Yak is developing and is RFA
    Leon will play this year
    Pouliot is the good and they have him for 4 more years.

    The Oilers have exactly 3 good D prospects, and they can’t remember the name of one of them.

    When you are drafting a player who will play on your team within 2 years and the top of your roster if fairly set (D or F or a combo)and is good enough to be set, then you can draft for need.

    The Oilers find themselves in a good spot and need to take advantage of it.

    They have an elite top 6 who would score even more if they had more than 1 or 2 Dmen who could actually help break the puck out with possession.

    They have a chance to fix that with either Hanifin or Provorov (either who are 3 years from making an impact on the NHL team)

    This then frees up the Oilers to package the PIT1 with a Marincin (who gets asked about more than any other Oiler in trade as per Bob) to get an established top pairing D from a team in cap trouble.

    You can fix the biggest ailment on the Oilers in one fell swoop, but you MUST draft for need and take a Dman.

    Must.

    I think a team has to be careful that they aren’t talking themselves into drafting for need.

    Yes, if Hanifin is truly the BPA by all means take him, but they can address the D without necessarily using that pick on a D.

  161. godot10 says:

    jfry:

    myers was traded this year for a guy who hasn’t scored more than 19 goals, except for one season at 30.you could say that it’s easier to trade for top end dman and you wouldn’t be wrong.anyhow. that’s not what i’m arguing. i think it’s easy to make lists of trades. bottom line is that impact players don’t get traded much.

    Myers was traded for Kane AND Bogosian…i.e. Taylor Hall and Justin Schultz.

  162. spoiler says:

    speeds: Yes, if Hanifin is truly the BPA by all means take him, but they can address the D without necessarily using that pick on a D.

    Conversely, they can address wing without using their first pick on a winger.

    Hanifin has been ranked top 3 all year by every single service or pundit other than Button.

    Thus I think the onus is on Lowetide to show why Hanifin isn’t BPA and I have yet to see him put forward a convincing argument. “Defensemen get hurt more often” doesn’t do it for me, nor does such a statement have any quantitative backing.

  163. jfry says:

    yeah, because evander kane and taylor hall are always talked about in the same breath. c’mon godot, this is exactly what i’m talking about.

    the trade was:
    Jason Kasdorf
    Zach Bogosian
    Evander Kane

    for

    Brendan Lemieux
    Joel Armia
    Drew Stafford
    Tyler Myers
    2015 1st round pick

  164. wheatnoil says:

    On the topic of Marner vs Hanifin vs Strome…

    Marner with a hat trick today, mid-way through the third. The boy has had one hell of a start to his playoffs.

  165. Lowetide says:

    Last 37 regular season games for Marner: 22-55-77. The kid turned a corner.

  166. jfry says:

    Lowetide,

    LT, out of curiousity, why did you pick that break point? ie, 37 games? does that coincide with the new year?

  167. Lowetide says:

    jfry:
    Lowetide,

    LT, out of curiousity, why did you pick that break point?ie, 37 games? does that coincide with the new year?

    First of December.

  168. RexLibris says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Go back and take a look at the scouting reports on Anze Kopitar…they all mention foot speed as an issue.

    I’ve never felt comfortable drawing direct correlations between prospects and players, but yes, the Kopitar comparison was used last year for Draisaitl.

    I’m more concerned about the speed at which a player can process and execute the game than necessarily about how quickly they skate.

    So long as he is mobile and quick, I’m not terribly concerned about his overall speed. That can be a weapon employed by his wingers.

  169. sliderule says:

    Draft prospect bio on P Kane 5-10 162 lbs now 5-11 180 lbs
    Draft prospect bio on Nuge. 6-0. 164 lbs. now 6-0. 190 lbs
    Draft prospect bio on Marner. 5-11. 165 lbs.

    That Marner has the same skill as those two and built same.Oh and room to grow as May 5 birth date makes him six mths younger than Kane at draft.
    What’s wrong with that picture

  170. RexLibris says:

    Russell, Bouma, Ferland and Hudler giving Calgary a 4-1 lead over Nashville with under 8 minutes to go in the 2nd.

    Nashville has seemed to have some consistency issues this past month or so.

  171. John Chambers says:

    jfry,

    Good show, man. The debate here can sometimes get nauseating when it’s peppered with vitriol. Let’s face it, none of our opinions will impact what MacT does on draft day, but we all post because it’s a fun thing to do on a rainy Sunday when our children are napping.

    Now, stepping slightly outside of your 35-goal parameters here’s JC’s off the top of his head list of top-line wingers who have been traded in recent memory:
    James Neal (2wice)
    Dany Heatley – that gap-toothed son of a bitch
    Mike Cammalleri
    Bobby Ryan
    Loui Eriksson
    Jason Pominville
    Marian Hossa – deadline deal
    Ilya Kovalchuk
    Jeff Carter
    Chris Kunitz
    Phil Kessel
    Andrew Ladd – this one is a bit if a stretch as he developed into a top line winger after being traded
    Dustin Penner – fer reals, look it up – he was a top line player for a brief period
    Joffrey Lupul – again, you can see the quality waning
    James Van Riemsdyk

    At any rate productive wingers get traded with a fairly high degree of frequency – Defense and centres much less so

  172. rickithebear says:

    RexLibris:
    Russell, Bouma, Ferland and Hudler giving Calgary a 4-1 lead over Nashville with under 8 minutes to go in the 2nd.

    Nashville has seemed to have some consistency issues this past month or so.

    Hutton in net.
    No weber!

    NSH sure wants cgy in th wild card!

  173. Adam Wu says:

    Who between Drai and Nurse has the better chance of earning a roster spot with the Oilers (assuming no major off-season acquisitions)?

    Drai’s primary competition is Roy and Lander, both of whom are pretty well ensconced, what with Roy’s chemistry with Yakupov and Lander’s stellar play.

    Nurse’s primary competition is Nikitin. It was pretty much telegraphed from the moment he was signed that he was there to keep the seat warm for Nurse until Darnell was ready. (And those of us tearing our hair out over Nikitin should remember this – the problem of Nikita Nikitin as an Oiler D has a defined shelf-life. It solves itself if you wait one year.)

    There’s the wildcard of Drai possibly being moved to wing, of course. His primary competiton there would probably be Purcell? (I can’t really see him taking Heindricks or Klinkhammer’s spots on the tough minutes line)

  174. godot10 says:

    jfry:
    Lowetide,

    LT, out of curiousity, why did you pick that break point?ie, 37 games? does that coincide with the new year?

    Hanifan was basically a point-per-game D as a 18-year freshmen playing against men in college hockey the 2nd half of the year, you know, at nearly the rate as Joey Laleggia.

    So just like Marner, lop off the start of the season, and Hanifan’s offense goes from good to exceptional.

  175. Ca$h-Money! says:

    rickithebear: Hutton in net.
    No weber!

    NSH sure wants cgy in th wild card!

    I was under the impression you thought Weber wasn’t good.

  176. sliderule says:

    John Chambers,

    Here are some of top four D from first round only traded.

    Pronger
    Komasarik
    Hamhuis
    Super
    Coburn
    Phaneuf
    Stuart
    Mess arms
    J Johnson
    E Johnson
    Niskanen
    McDonagh
    Shattenkirk.

    There could be more but top D get traded all the time.
    The secret is to grab them when they are just starting out.

  177. RexLibris says:

    rickithebear: Hutton in net.
    No weber!

    NSH sure wants cgy in th wild card!

    I think they decided this was the game they could probably win with the backup goaltender.

    After this they have the Canucks, Stars, Avalanche, Wild and then the Stars again. Resting Rinne against Calgary and the Avs makes the most sense.

  178. Woodguy says:

    speeds: I think a team has to be careful that they aren’t talking themselves into drafting for need.

    Yes, if Hanifin is truly the BPA by all means take him, but they can address the D without necessarily using that pick on a D.

    That’s mostly my point Mike.

    They can’t address D like the can at the top of this draft.

    They have elite forwards, but no Dman that who is a lock to be a top pairing guy.

    Hanafin isn’t a lock either, but he’s an awfully good bet.

    A better bet today than anyone else.

  179. Dashingsilverfox says:

    John Chambers:
    jfry,

    Good show, man. The debate here can sometimes get nauseating when it’s peppered with vitriol. Let’s face it, none of our opinions will impact what MacT does on draft day, but we all post because it’s a fun thing to do on a rainy Sunday when our children are napping.

    Now, stepping slightly outside of your 35-goal parameters here’s JC’s off the top of his head list of top-line wingers who have been traded in recent memory:
    James Neal (2wice)
    Dany Heatley – that gap-toothed son of a bitch
    Mike Cammalleri
    Bobby Ryan
    Loui Eriksson
    Jason Pominville
    Marian Hossa – deadline deal
    Ilya Kovalchuk
    Jeff Carter
    Chris Kunitz
    Phil Kessel
    Andrew Ladd – this one is a bit if a stretch as he developed into a top line winger after being traded
    Dustin Penner – fer reals, look it up – he was a top line player for a brief period
    Joffrey Lupul – again, you can see the quality waning
    James Van Riemsdyk

    At any rate productive wingers get traded with a fairly high degree of frequency – Defense and centres much less so

    Including centres…

    Rick Nash

    Joe Thornton

    Marian Hossa

    Alex Steen (close enough)

    Scott Hartnell

    Jason Spezza

  180. Gordies Elbow says:

    Woodguy: That’s mostly my point Mike.

    They can’t address D like the can at the top of this draft.

    They have elite forwards, but no Dman that who is a lock to be a top pairing guy.

    Hanafin isn’t a lock either, but he’s an awfully good bet.

    A better bet today than anyone else.

    I think that Hanifin is the lowest risk of the Marner, Strome, Provorov, Werenski.

    I think that’s why scouts have him where they do. He may not have the flashy upside of Marner, but at the end of the day, the downside with his toolbox (elite skating, projectable frame, strong read and react.) is a player like Jay Boumeester. Minute eating defender. That said, his offense is impressive for his age and playing in the NCAA.

    Greg Brown is his assistant coach, and played for BC back in the day. He raves about Noah Hanifin.

    Greg’s partner, back in the day with BC as an 18 year old? A skinny, fast skating defender that was born in Corpus Christie, drafted 9th overall in 1986.

    Brian Leetch played with Greg Brown for a great team that was led by Craig Janney and Kevin Stevens. Upside on Hanifin? One of the best players to play for BC.

  181. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Marner with 3G 1A this afternoon as London beats Kitchener 6-2

  182. Woodguy says:

    sliderule:
    John Chambers,

    Here are some of top four D from first round only traded.

    Pronger
    Komasarik
    Hamhuis
    Super
    Coburn
    Phaneuf
    Stuart
    Mess arms
    J Johnson
    E Johnson
    Niskanen
    McDonagh
    Shattenkirk.

    There could be more buttop D get traded all the time.
    The secret is to grab them when they are just startingout.

    For the type of Dmen I’m talking about I’ll give you Pronger, E. Johnson and Shattenkirk.

    Hamhuis is the good, but only his rights were traded the summer he went UFA and never signed with either team that acquired his rights.

    That’s 3 since 2005 and two of them were traded for each other.

    So basically top end Dmen never move.

  183. sliderule says:

    Woodguy,

    They were all top four for at least part of their career.

    Ther are a few of the forwards you mention that are marginal top six.

  184. sliderule says:

    Woodguy,

    My spell check came ou Super rather than Suter but can you give that one?

  185. Dashingsilverfox says:

    sliderule:
    Woodguy,

    My spell check came ou Super rather than Suter but can you give that one?

    Suter was a free agent signing.

  186. slambanna says:

    I didn’t see this posted anywhere:

    Joey Legs scored the tying goal halfway through the third today. Shortly after he made a quick reaction on a suicide pass from the opposition. It was a quick play, not overly predatory but he got 5 and game for a hit to the head.

    Providence scores with 30 secs left on the kill with a few minutes left in the game then add a couple empty netters.

    Joey’s season is done. I imagine he’ll sign today or tomorrow and head to OKC.

  187. rickithebear says:

    Ca$h-Money!: I was under the impression you thought Weber wasn’t good.

    Cap world!

    Weber w/ rinne good.
    Weber without rinne average to bad
    Weber without rinne at 7.8M cap
    That is idiocy!

    Do you not understand how cap works.

  188. rickithebear says:

    slambanna:
    I didn’t see this posted anywhere:

    Joey Legs scored the tying goal halfway through the third today.Shortly after he made a quick reaction on a suicide pass from the opposition.It was a quick play, not overly predatory but he got 5 and game for a hit to the head.

    Providence scores with 30 secs left on the kill with a few minutes left in the game then add a couple empty netters.

    Joey’s season is done.I imagine he’ll sign today or tomorrow and head to OKC.

    Watched the whole game.
    Prick ref let a providence chrck from behind.
    Then cals that!

    Thing i like the best. He reads off his d partner and forwards.
    First option was allways protect the box.
    Leverages guys just below point of hip.

    Please sign and give him games.

  189. Woodguy says:

    sliderule:
    Woodguy,

    They were all top four for at least part of their career.

    Ther are a few of the forwards you mention that are marginal top six.

    Yeah, I’m aiming a little higher than top 4, and Suter was never traded either.

    I think a line of Hall-DrySaddle-Yak could be devastating 2nd line and elite in the NHL, (Saddle needs another year though) but I get what you are saying.

    Pou-RNH-Eberle already saw-off elite comp (for the 2nd half of the season at least).

  190. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear: Watched the whole game.
    Prick ref let a providence chrck from behind.
    Then cals that!

    Thing i like the best. He reads off his d partner and forwards.
    First option was allways protect the box.
    Leverages guys just below point of hip.

    Please sign and give him games.

    This is Joey’s last year of school iirc.

    He may want to finish his degree.

    It’s only a couple of months.

  191. smellyglove says:

    Hanifan, Eichel, Marner… I hope you’re all wrong! ….. and the Oilers draft McEichel. There’s still a significant chance of that:

    Scenario 1: Oilers win the lottery – ~12% give or take.
    Scenario 2: Oilers finish 29th (Arizona is only 3 pts ‘behind’)–I give it a 1 in 3 change–and Sabres win lottery (20%): 7% give or take

    By my mind, that’s a 1/5 chance at one of the two big boys.

    Love to see some math posts on splits and NHLE on the the top 6 prospects.

  192. slambanna says:

    Highlights of Londons win and Marner’s hatty today: http://www.ontariohockeyleague.com/video/index/id/23c9b914c0c0ee0801f8e96673ee279a

    1 PP, 1 ES and one hell of a shorty. That said Domi had one prettiest goals I’ve seen anywhere all season.

    It’s awfully hard to argue with LT that Marner isn’t the 3rd best player in this draft.

    He looks like he may have a higher ceiling offensively than any current Oiler. He’s a Datsnugian thief who’s probably still growing and probably can play center as well.

    Awfully hard to argue.

    I know just yesterday I had Hanifin ahead of Marner, but it was a razor thin edge and it’s being erased by Marner at the moment.

    Strome in my mind is significantly behind these two for me. His 4 goal 6 point night was impressive, but he never screams superstar like Marner does.

    RTB’s age adjusted NHLe’s for Marner doesn’t seem too far off.

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