BLUE BY YOU

The Oilers should have a terrific group of rookie pro’s and prospects in Edmonton and Bakersfield this fall, owing to a top five overall selection and their last two first-round selections playing in junior. The organization is hinting now that all of the kids will begin in the minors but given the history one doubts those notions have sustain.

My feeling is this: The Oilers should make both players earn their NHL entry but there’s every chance both will be among the better options available in the fall. GM Craig MacTavish is boxed in with expensive veterans who aren’t delivering (Nikitin, Ference, Nikitin, Nikitin) and that means openings galore for Nurse. I imagine the two veterans will see IR a lot in 2014-15 (Nikitin rented a suite a barely left) and of course it’s important to remember NHL teams employ far more than seven defenders during an 82 game season.

TIME ON ICE, OILERS BLUE 2014-15

  1. Justin Schultz 1766
  2. Mark Fayne 1327
  3. Andrew Ference 1321
  4. Oscar Klefbom 1248
  5. Jeff Petry 1236
  6. Niki Nikitin 825
  7. Martin Marincin 705
  8. Keith Aulie 395
  9. Brad Hunt 214
  10. Brandon Davidson 132
  11. Jordan Oesterle 88
  12. Darnell Nurse 34
  13. David Musil 19

The only prospects from the AHL who haven’t seen action are Martin Gernat (injured) and Dillon Simpson (probably at the airport). Edmonton will likely play 9 men more than 200 minutes this season (Davidson should get close that number before season’s end) and there’s no reason to believe we’ll see anything different next year (there were 11 one year ago).

2015-16 PROJECTED BLUE

If we proceed with what we believe (MacT’s big moves this summer will be the acquisition of an expensive veteran goalie and a leader on defense farther up the Nikitin-Ference food chain), let’s see if we can keep Nurse in the minors for most of the season.

  1. Justin Schultz (a lock for big minutes next season)
  2. Paul Martin (Jon Willis mentioned him on the Lowdown not long ago, Vollman’s sledgehammer loves him)
  3. Mark Fayne
  4. Oscar Klefbom
  5. Martin Marincin
  6. Niki Nikitin
  7. Andrew Ference
  8. Keith Aulie
  9. Darnell Nurse
  10. Brad Hunt
  11. Brandon Davidson
  12. Jordan Oesterle
  13. David Musil
  14. Joey Laleggia
  15. Dillon Simpson
  16. Martin Gernat
  17. Ben Betker

Or thereabouts. I think Nurse may get sent down but don’t expect his AHL time to be more than 20 games. If you look at that depth chart, and know Edmonton’s management values toughness combined with speed, can we seriously build an argument that sees Nikitin, Ference and Aulie healthy and effective enough to ban Nurse from the show? Not a chance.

OILERS SIGN PLATZER

Our friend Rom (in previous thread) informs us the Oilers have signed Kyle Platzer so we’ll look for the news (with a link) and I’ll have something on him later. Platzer went off offensively this season but should be a solid two-way center at the pro level. I think Greg Chase will end up playing the wing, meaning the Oilers will add Leon Draisaitl and Platzer to the pro C depth chart—making it look like this for next year:

 

  1. C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
  2. C Anton Lander
  3. C Boyd Gordon
  4. C Leon Draisaitl
  5. C Bogdan Yakimov
  6. C Jujhar Khaira
  7. C Travis Ewanyk
  8. C Kyle Platzer (newly signed)
  9. C Kellen Lain (RFA)

Platzer’s signing is interesting for another prospect, Marco Roy. Edmonton will see him at the Memorial Cup and there’s speculation he needs to have a strong finish to earn a contract. I’ve looked at his EV scoring and based on anecdotal information (good two-way C, intelligent) I think Roy should be signed at the end of the Mem Cup.

Young Chase is already signed but won’t be heading to OKC yet, as he’s on to face Leon Draisaitl and the Kelowna Rockets. As mentioned above, one suspects he’ll find his way as a gritty, agitating winger with skill:

 

  1. R Jordan Eberle
  2. R Nail Yakupov (RFA)
  3. R Teddy Purcell
  4. R Rob Klinkhammer
  5. R Iiro Pakarinen
  6. R Tyler Pitlick (RFA)
  7. R Greg Chase
  8. R Andrew Miller (RFA)

John McCarron and Jackson Houck are possible additions. Miller looks very good in the NHL—far better than expected—and with Pakarinen and Chase available next season Pitlick may have a hard time claiming an NHL job.

ziggy1

HAPPY EASTER!

Ziggy is sleeping next to me, she came downstairs an hour ago, stole the warmest blanket and will now lollygag until Jo takes her for a walk. We’ll have turkey later, I’ll get back from the station (first edition of Soccer Sunday, 11 this morning! Tune in if you can, no pressure) in time to help with the prep of the bird (which involves me lifting the turkey into the cooking bag and complaining bitterly about it. I’m a real catch, there’s little doubt) and by two o’clock this afternoon this house will smell like heaven. The kids are sleeping, both are heading back (or in) school, so we seem to have some purpose in our step on that front. I’m good, in fact having a blast with the radio work and the writing gigs. We remain grateful for your continued generosity and hope you’re looking forward to the RE series and draft coverage.

MUSIL

I was happy to see the young man make his debut, he’s been mentioned as a poor or wasted pick. David Musil didn’t do one damn thing to earn the slings and arrows but he received them on line just the same. Too bad, based on all we know he’s a terrific young man and adjusted to pro hockey far more quickly than had been anticipated in some circles. I hope he makes it and finds a way to shove it down the throats of those who couldn’t find it in their hearts to separate the draft pick from his number. It would be a valuable lesson for all of us.

 

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

153 Responses to "BLUE BY YOU"

  1. wunderbar says:

    You need to post about Ziggy more often, at least fun things on Twitter. She’s way more interesting than the Oilers right now anyway!

  2. zatch says:

    Gonna drop a Yost-style #hotfoodtake and remind everyone that Roast Beef > Lamb > Salmon > Chicken > Pork Roast > MIND THE GAP > Turkey > Ham as far as family dinners go. Maybe I’ve just had too many awful hams and turkeys in my time.

    But seriously though, Happy Easter. Summer is so close I can taste it.

  3. Woodguy says:

    Except for his first shift I saw Musil pretty good last night. Won more board battles than Schultz.

    Also,

    You have Martin on the D, but you also have Marincin.

    Do you think the Oilers can get a true vet Dman without Marincin in the deal?

  4. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy:
    Except for his first shift I saw Musil pretty good last night.Won more board battles than Schultz.

    Also,

    You have Martin on the D, but you also have Marincin.

    Do you think the Oilers can get a true vet Dman without Marincin in the deal?

    Yeah, he looked fine to me, as well. Martin is UFA, no?

  5. Clay says:

    I love Easter weekend, especially when if falls at the beginning of April. My wife and son share an April 4th birthday, so yesterday was party day, today is food day.

    Except that yesterday I made slow-cooker ribs (finished on the grill) with all the extras, so the house smelled like a bbq shack all day, and today it’ll smell like sage and rosemary and childhood memories. Two food days in a row 🙂

    Dreading stepping on the scale on Monday though!

  6. stevezie says:

    I like Martin a lot, but my idea of him being a RIch Man’s Jefft Petry leaves me wondering if he would be management’s first choice, though God knows those beggers can’t be choosers.

  7. flyfish1168 says:

    Hey “Ca$h-Money!: Sigh….”

    I convinced my brother to be an Oiler fan in 1985. But i wrote this to him this past December.

    There’s not a day goes by I don’t feel regret not trying to convince you not to cheer for them. Not because I’m in here, or because you think I should. I look back on the way I was then: a young, stupid kid who committed that terrible crime of not talking you out of cheering for “The Oilers” . I want to talk to him. I want to try and talk some sense to him, tell him the way things will be. But I can’t. That kid’s long gone and this old man is all that’s left to regret that faithful evening. I got to live with the pain of knowing you cheer for the “Oilers”. This can’t be Rehabilitated ? It’s just a bullshit word anyway. So you go on and stamp your jersey, sonny, and stop wasting my time. Because to tell you the truth, I don’t give a shit if you still cheer for the Oilers.

  8. Surly says:

    Nicely done Flyfish…I believe ‘obtuse’ describes the Warden as well as Oiler mgmt.

    PIT loss and an OTT win today sets up a massive game on Tuesday for that extra Oiler first rounder. Malkin back in unfortunately.

  9. Winahgahmee says:

    Happy Easter LT. Thanks for signing me in to your fabulous blog. I have only been following this blog daily for the last three months. I am 62 and have always just been a Matheson and Jones (read the two of them together for awhile until Jones went to that other paper) fan but since I have followed you I seldome buy the paper anymore. Thank you and the contributors for a fascinating read daily!

  10. flyfish1168 says:

    Surly:
    Nicely done Flyfish…I believe ‘obtuse’ describes the Warden as well as Oiler mgmt.

    PIT loss and an OTT win today sets up a massive game on Tuesday for that extra Oiler first rounder.Malkin back in unfortunately.

    Love it

  11. HeatTreaterJoe says:

    Happy Easter to everyone. Thanks for the wonderful blog and community.

    On a follow-up note from last night, I believe the Oilers have now won 17 of a possible 54 games against the flames since the 2006 Stanley Cup run. They barely show up to these games. I don’t see how the Oilers organization deserves anything other than derisive commentary during HNIC games.

    EDIT: Even when the players on the ice show-up to these games, the management has clearly not given them a good enough roster to have an opportunity to win.

  12. spoiler says:

    LT said…

    The Oilers should have a terrific group of rookie pro’s and prospects

    Speaking of prose… LT love you man, but you do this 2-3 times per week. I wanna see you with a regular column in THN one day, so cut it out! lol

  13. Doubting Olive says:

    “and will now Jultz until Jo takes her for a walk.”

    FIFY LT. Happy Non-Denominational Celebration of the Coming of Spring.

  14. John Chambers says:

    There are more than a few Free Agent defensemen (Martin, Franson, Green, Sekara, Beauchemin, Eherhoff, Michalek, and a little known right-shot D-man Montreal acquired at the deadline) who would be the team’s top blueliner IF signed.

    I say IF because MacT has attempted to sign Matthieu Perreault, and has attempted to obtain other quality players (Coburn, Schneider) to no avail. Paul Martin is an excellent Plan A, however MacT needs to have Plans A through F sorted out, even if last resort is a 5.5×6 deal for Franson or Sekara. Going into training camp with Ference in your top 6 means the playoffs are a pipedream. Ference AND Nikitin? We’ll be lucky if we’re within 10 points by the New Year.

    Not only does the franchise need to acquire at least two from the above list (or one, plus another through trade – like Girardi, Hjalmarsson, Bouwmeester, etc), they need to end the Schultz experiment.

    The sequence of events this summer should look something like:
    Trade Nikitin along with a 3rd to Buffalo for a D prospect (salary dump)
    Trade Schultz and next year’s first to NYR for Dan Girardi and Cam Talbot
    Trade a pair of 2nd round picks to St Louis for Sobotka
    Sign UFA’s Neuvirth and Sekara – Scrivens gets waived and splits time with Brossoit in OKC
    Re-sign Roy to be the 5th centre

    Depth at D, depth at C, depth in goal. That’s the General Manager’s job this summer.

  15. Dicky94 says:

    I thought Musil looked alright last. As good as can be expected for his first game. Hope they give him the remaining four games and keep Nikky out. Would rather watch a rookie make a few mistakes rather than our experienced top two veteran d man shit the bed every shift. And is it just me or does Musil look exceptionally large out there? Hope he makes it.

  16. Ca$h-Money! says:

    flyfish1168:
    Hey“Ca$h-Money!: Sigh….”

    I convinced my brother to be an Oiler fan in 1985. Buti wrote this to him this past December.

    There’s not a day goes by I don’t feel regret not trying to convince you not to cheer for them. Not because I’m in here, or because you think I should. I look back on the way I was then: a young, stupid kid who committed that terrible crime of not talking you out of cheering for “The Oilers” . I want to talk to him. I want to try and talk some sense to him, tell him the way things will be. But I can’t. That kid’s long gone and this old man is all that’s left to regret that faithful evening.I got to live with the pain of knowing you cheer for the “Oilers”.This can’t be Rehabilitated ? It’s just a bullshit word anyway. So you go on and stamp your jersey, sonny, and stop wasting my time. Because to tell you the truth, I don’t give a shit if you still cheer for the Oilers.

    I sure do appreciate the support of this community. It’s good to know I’m not alone.

  17. Doubting Olive says:

    So, Pitts misses POs and trades Malkin back for both our 1st rounders. It’ll never happen, but dare to dream, Arnold, dare to dream.

  18. dangilitis says:

    Arcobello gagner and rieder combined for 5 pts in the Arizona win. I am so tired of others (not so on LT) using the skilled size argument. I am 5’6″, not obese, and heavier than 2 of the top 6 flames forwards. We live in different times now, martin St. Louis clones are succeeding everywhere .

    There has to be a better reason as to why players excel outside of Edmonton beyond new babies (even though I can relate, the adrenaline and the game should focus a goalie in the moment, much less a pro goalie) and better positions to succeed (arco and dubnyk had to earn everything on new teams).

    Hell, even justin was touted to be a much better product to start his career and by all accounts was better for the first 20-30 games. Dubnyk and scrivens and fasth have always shown promise and frankly I don’t think scrivens is done as an nhl goalie.

    Maybe the team needs to hire a team of psychologists to figure out why players are regressing or underperforming in Edmonton rather than shipping useful players away to watch them play roles on other teams, or running a conveyer belt of promising goalies and coaches. Something is amiss and it’s not because of “locker room cancers” (McLennan had a really nice response on this lately when asked about Taylor hall, worth a listen- basically saying that even if there were personalities in the locker room that is no excuse for a teams poor play and that veteran leaders don’t suddenly become jerks on non playoff teams)

  19. rich says:

    John Chambers,

    John, I don’t disagree with your premise on the defense, but can you really see MacT overhauling the defense this summer?

    To do so would require him to admit he’s made a mistake in how he’s tried to build it, and this is the GM’s greatest weakness – his unwillingness to admit a mistake (followed closely by his inability to effectively evaluate d-men).

    My hope would be the Oiler’s decide to buyout Ference, go in with Nikitin as the 7th d-man, and Schultz as a bottom pairing d-man getting the “Yandle” treatment.

    I do wish at the season ending press conference that someone from the MSM would ask MacT why Oiler fans should have any confidence in his ability to properly assess d-men and goalies given his words and actions the last two seasons.

  20. TemujinBC says:

    The original drummer from Lynyrd Skynyrd has died in a car crash at the age of 64

    http://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-32188511

    ***

    rich:
    John Chambers,

    John, I don’t disagree with your premise on the defense, but can you really see MacT overhauling the defense this summer?

    To do so would require him to admit he’s made a mistake…

    Ain’t that the truth? Addition by subtraction is the only way forward with this group and I would be shocked if it actually happened.

  21. Doubting Olive says:

    dangilitis:
    Arcobello gagner and rieder combined for 5 pts in the Arizona win. I am so tired of others (not so on LT) using the skilled size argument. I am 5’6″, not obese, and heavier than 2 of the top 6 flames forwards. We live in different times now, martin St. Louis clones are succeeding everywhere .

    There has to be a better reason as to why players excel outside of Edmonton beyond new babies (even though I can relate, the adrenaline and the game should focus a goalie in the moment, much less a pro goalie) and better positions to succeed (arco and dubnyk had to earn everything on new teams).

    Hell, even justin was touted to be a much better product to start his career and by all accounts was better for the first 20-30 games. Dubnyk and scrivens and fasth have always shown promise and frankly I don’t think scrivens is done as an nhl goalie.

    Maybe the team needs to hire a team of psychologists to figure out why players are regressing or underperforming in Edmonton rather than shipping useful players away to watch them play roles on other teams, or running a conveyer belt of promising goalies and coaches. Somethingis amiss and it’s not because of “locker room cancers” (McLennan had a really nice response on this lately when asked about Taylor hall, worth a listen- basically saying that even if there were personalities in the locker room that is no excuse for a teams poor play and that veteran leaders don’t suddenly become jerks on non playoff teams)

    I can’t remember who posted it, but yesterday somebody posted a rant that had some interesting points in it. Basically, our players have to be told publicly that they’re not good enough by a bunch of guys that know a thing or two about winning.

    The problem that arises is that, as you say, the game has changed. I fear it has passed our glorious leaders by, they clearly haven’t adapted to the now, let alone pre-empted any change of their own. And they’re convinced that they’re right.

    If MacT is honestly happy with this d-corps and goalie, well, I don’t know. He said “if you have to ask the question.” What if he’s purposely not asking the question. Fingers in ears, la la la, I can’t hear you! Or worse, Jedi mind tricks, “these are the d-men I’m looking for.”

    I’ll make a call. Barring divine intervention, we don’t make the play-offs for at least 5 years. It is entirely possible we’re worse now than when we started, certainly in the D dept.

  22. 719 says:

    Surly:

    PIT loss and an OTT win today sets up a massive game on Tuesday for that extra Oiler first rounder.Malkin back in unfortunately.

    It is alot more complicated than that because of the way the wildcard system works. It looks like 98 points or better and you will be in the playoffs in the East.

    Detroit needs 3 points in their next 4 games (washington, carolina, montreal, carolina)
    Boston needs 3 points in their next 3 games (washington, florida, tampa bay)
    Ottawa needs 6 points in their next 4 games (toronto, Pittsburgh, NYR and Philly)
    Pittsburgh needs 3 points in their next 4 games (Philly, Ottawa, NY Islanders, Buffalo)
    Washington needs one point in their next 3 games (Detroit, Boston, NYR)

    Looking at it objectively, seems like Pittsburgh will make it. They would have to lose 3 of the next 4 in regulation. Even if Pittsburgh hits 98 they will make the playoffs over other teams based on ROW.

  23. Acumen says:

    dangilitis,

    Gagner had to go IMO, despite us missing the boat on selling high, and I’m willing to cut them some slack if Rieder said he wouldn’t sign–though I would have hoped for better than an overage CHL pugilist.

    Arcobello stings though. I really pulled for him, really liked him, and we literally gave him away for no reason at all. Could have picked up Roy for free or tossed them a Kessy or a Ewanyk if it was just a roster spot thing. I think he may just be a very painful repeat of Ray Whitney about to bite our asses for a decade.

    Granted, if losing all 3 of them made us just bad enough to land McDavid or Eichel, its all worth it. Kind of the inverse of the ‘any move is worth it if the team won the cup’ argument.

    In the Dublin airport for the next 15 hours awaiting a one day stop over in Lisbon on my way back home after nine weeks in Europe. You have all been a touchstone and a creature comfort throughout whenever WiFi has been available through some foreign lands and culture shock. Thanks for all the hard work LT, and Happy Easter everyone.

  24. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Gilbert, Souray, Whitney, Smid, Aaron Johnson, Peckham, Chorney finished the 09-10 season.
    Ference, Schultz, Klefbom, Marincin, Nikitin, Fayne, Aulie, are regulars from 14-15 season.

    Five years after drafting Taylor Hall.
    Which defence would you rather have?

  25. Hammers says:

    Hope your correct and Simpson gets a couple of games . Felt Musil upheld his end of the bargain but under the cicumstances that was an AHL “D” including Schultz . I really feel for players that get a few games with no leading “D” to show them the way . You show Aulie on the list for next year but if they keep signing these kids I see him & Gernat not being retained . Someone has to go as the 50 man list should be no more than 47 or 48 going into the season in case someone worth while is available of the waiver wire . I won’t be surprised if someone else is gone via trade ! Hunt .

  26. godot10 says:

    Paul Martin is 34. The mid-career doughnut hole would get bigger not smaller. Another guy on a retirement contract. The Oiler don’t need another guy ready for 3rd pairing minutes.

    The Patriots make sure they get rid of these guys one year early. They don’t sign them to retirement contracts.

  27. Numenius says:

    dangilitis,

    As Nelson seems to be proving, the right coach is key to getting players to play to their potential (as long as the lineup isn’t completely decimated).

    I’d argue Paul Maurice in Winnipeg has been proving the same.

  28. leadfarmer says:

    zatch,

    If you have gone to a traditional Greek Orthodox Easter feast u would have lamb ahead of roast beef. Otherwise good list.

  29. godot10 says:

    John Chambers:

    needs to have Plans A through F sorted out, even if last resort is a 5.5×6 deal for Franson or Sekara. Going into training camp with Ference in your top 6 means the playoffs are a pipedream. Ference AND Nikitin? We’ll be lucky if we’re within 10 points by the New Year.

    Not only does the franchise need to acquire at least two from the above list (or one, plus another through trade – like Girardi, Hjalmarsson, Bouwmeester, etc), they need to end the Schultz experiment.

    The sequence of events this summer should look something like:
    Trade Nikitin along with a 3rd to Buffalo for a D prospect (salary dump)
    Trade Schultz and next year’s first to NYR for Dan Girardi and Cam Talbot
    Trade a pair of 2nd round picks to St Louis for Sobotka
    Sign UFA’s Neuvirth and Sekara – Scrivens gets waived and splits time with Brossoit in OKC
    Re-sign Roy to be the 5th centre

    Depth at D, depth at C, depth in goal. That’s the General Manager’s job this summer.

    Petry is better than Sekera, and far better than Franson. Sekera is fine. Franson really wouldn’t help. I am not a believer in Cody Franson at all.

    Sobotka is one year away from UFA. Two 2nd round picks for one season of Sobotka is lunacy. St. Louis has cap issues. One should be able to get him for far less. An OIlers 3rd round pick is like a 2nd round pick. Offer a 3rd round pick, and a second 3rd round pick if Sobotka re-signs.

  30. GCW_69 says:

    godot10:
    Paul Martin is 34.The mid-career doughnut hole would get bigger not smaller.Another guy on a retirement contract.The Oiler don’t need another guy ready for 3rd pairing minutes.

    The Patriots make sure they get rid of these guys one year early.They don’t sign them to retirement contracts.

    This. Very much this.

  31. GCW_69 says:

    godot10: Petry is better than Sekera, and far better than Franson.Sekera is fine.Franson really wouldn’t help. I am not a believer in Cody Franson at all.

    Sobotka is one year away from UFA.Two 2nd round picks for one season of Sobotka is lunacy. St. Louis has cap issues.One should be able to get him for far less. An OIlers 3rd round pick is like a 2nd round pick.Offer a 3rd round pick, and a second 3rd round pick if Sobotka re-signs.

    Franson’s two way game improved this year. He is consistently a strong offensive defender. His corsi rel is always positive. Franson would be an excellent for for the Oilers. As an added bonus he could make Schultz redundant.

    http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2014/7/30/5938429/the-case-for-cody-franson

  32. Colieo87 says:

    Happy Easter to all , lordy happy the seasons almost over, go hawks, jets and flames Post season

  33. Doubting Olive says:

    Colieo87:
    Happy Easter to all , lordy happy the seasons almost over,go hawks,jets and flames Post season

    I think I might root for the Isles. Which now means they’re swept in the first round.

  34. GCW_69 says:

    I would be satisfied with

    Sekera – Franson

    Marincin – Fayne

    Klefbom – Schultz

    Nikitin

    That’s a defence by committee group and would be much better if you swapped Schultz with Petry, but at least that is a group that should not embarrass themselves. Replace Schultz with Michalek on a short term deal and it’s not as good as with Petry, but better than with Schultz.

  35. teddyturnbuckle says:

    Happy Easter! That Pittsburg pick is getting better by the day. It has the potential to be around 18th if the cards fall right.

  36. Doubting Olive says:

    Happy Eostre everybody! (No spelling mistake!) Let’s hope it kicks Old Man Winter’s butt!

  37. John Chambers says:

    GCW_69: Franson’s two way game improved this year. He is consistently a strong offensive defender.His corsi rel is always positive.Franson would be an excellent for for the Oilers.As an added bonus he could make Schultz redundant.

    http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2014/7/30/5938429/the-case-for-cody-franson

    The Calgary Flames’ defensemen lead the league from the perspective of blue line scoring. Watching Dennis Wideman jump into the play last night, and watching Klefbom, Marincin, and Schultz fumble the puck with regularity, leads me to be liver that the Oilers’ main problem is that their forwards run a 3-man cycle while Calgary has the luxury of a 4- or 5-man rush and cycle.

    Sekara and Franson IMO are best suited given their offensive instincts to satisfy the modern NHL need for a big, mobile D who can handle the puck. Klefbom will likely get there, Nurse tambien, and I’ve lost faith in Schultz being able to do this for more than 15 minutes a night which is too damn much got a 3rd pairing D.

    Godot is probably right in his concern for Martin’s age, but if the Oilers somehow got out from Niki’s contract and got Martin signed for obscene money but a term of 3 years or less, I think it would be digestible.

  38. Doubting Olive says:

    John Chambers: The Calgary Flames’ defensemen lead the league from the perspective of blue line scoring. Watching Dennis Wideman jump into the play last night, and watching Klefbom, Marincin, and Schultz fumble the puck with regularity, leads me to be liver that the Oilers’ main problem is that their forwards run a 3-man cycle while Calgary has the luxury of a 4- or 5-man rush and cycle.

    Sekara and Franson IMO are best suited given their offensive instincts to satisfy the modern NHL need for a big, mobile D who can handle the puck. Klefbom will likely get there, Nurse tambien, and I’ve lost faith in Schultz being able to do this for more than 15 minutes a night which is too damn much got a 3rd pairing D.

    Godot is probably right in his concern for Martin’s age, but if the Oilers somehow got out from Niki’s contract and got Martin signed for obscene money but a term of 3 years or less, I think it would be digestible.

    It’s just more goats by degrees.

  39. GCW_69 says:

    http://www.nj.com/devils/index.ssf/2015/03/eric_gelinas_knows_one_of_devils_young_defensemen.html

    Oilers and New Jersey potential trade partners? If Lou is going to trade a young defender for scoring, and the Oilers draft a forward this year, I hope MacT tries to work a deal with Lou. I would be okay with a Yakupov for Larsson trade. Both had strong second halves, but neither are proven. Good opportunity for both teams.

  40. godot10 says:

    GCW_69: Franson’s two way game improved this year. He is consistently a strong offensive defender.His corsi rel is always positive.Franson would be an excellent for for the Oilers.As an added bonus he could make Schultz redundant.

    http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2014/7/30/5938429/the-case-for-cody-franson

    One good season in a contract year, never facing tough minutes in his career vs. Petry, who has taken on the vaunt without help for three seasons.

    Petry, if he was slotted appropriately, would put up as much offense as Franson, and he is way better defensively.

  41. razor says:

    There is no chance in hell the Oilers bring another soft, won’t take the body, pass-first American in the Petry mold. Seabrook yes, but Martin no.

  42. Kmart99 says:

    Is the Pitt 1st rounder protected if they miss the playoffs?
    If the Pitt pick were to win the lottery on a 1% shot after missing the playoffs, would the oilers get it?

  43. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: Yeah, he looked fine to me, as well. Martin is UFA, no?

    Ah, though he had some term left.

    Seems like yesterday when he re-upped with PIT.

    I wanted him on the Oilers then.

    Time pasess……

  44. leadfarmer says:

    Steve Mason and the Penguins penalties are trying to give us a much better draft pick.

  45. Colieo87 says:

    Doubting Olive,

    Haha opposite oiler dreds but ya my wild are are the wild them selfS. Should be an interesting first round. Did you bet on Vegas odds. ?

  46. Dashingsilverfox says:

    razor:
    There is no chance in hell the Oilers bring another soft, won’t take the body, pass-first American in the Petry mold. Seabrook yes, but Martin no.

    A flawed stat to be sure but Franson is 19th in the league for hits by a defenseman at 174.

    Zdeno Chara is at 119.

  47. Ca$h-Money! says:

    Kmart99:
    Is the Pitt 1st rounder protected if they miss the playoffs?
    If the Pitt pick were to win the lottery on a 1% shot after missing the playoffs, would the oilers get it?

    That’s the dream. McDavid & Noah.

  48. pts2pndr says:

    Ben Scrivens is a good teammate and appears to be great guy he is however at this time not an NHL calibre goalie! He is 6.2 but plays like he is 5.10. He can,t track the puck because he is on his knees more than a Catholic alter boy! The combination of him down early and back in his net render him vulnerable with shots to top third of the net. He needs to go back down to the AHL and regain his form.

  49. Pouzar says:

    Bob Stauffer ‏@Bob_Stauffer
    Kyle Platzer will go to OKC on an ATO for the remainder of this season. 3-year ELC kicks in July 1st

  50. Oddspell says:

    Speaking of Platzer’s ATO, does anyone have a review of Houck’s first 4 AHL games? I see he has a point.

  51. Pouzar says:

    pts2pndr:
    Ben Scrivens is a good teammateand appears to begreat guy he is however at this time not an NHL calibre goalie! He is 6.2 but plays like he is 5.10. He can,t track the puck because he is on his knees more than a Catholic alter boy!The combination of him down early and back in his net render him vulnerable with shots to top third of the net. He needs to go back down to the AHL and regain his form.

    Ouch. Happy Easter.

  52. Halfwise says:

    pts2pndr:
    Ben Scrivens is a good teammateand appears to begreat guy he is however at this time not an NHL calibre goalie! He is 6.2 but plays like he is 5.10. He can,t track the puck because he is on his knees more than a Catholic alter boy!The combination of him down early and back in his net render him vulnerable with shots to top third of the net. He needs to go back down to the AHL and regain his form.

    You’re fairly new here, I gather.

    Stick around, maybe listen a bit and pick up the tone.

  53. Oiler94 says:

    Hey LT I’ve read numerous articles and posts sayin the oilers need to pull a Garth snow this summer and bolster the blue. We are pretty well committed the the 6 regulars minus petry and Mac T loves all of them except MM. Nikitan is a bust and Mac T won’t deal with that. Ference is a decent top 6 so who or what has to give? Schultz is a lesser Mike Green clone but why give up a future Norris candidate for someone like that. Plus we need room for Nurse. I’m questioning my faith as a fan and taking the razzing living in a small B.C town flooded with retired flame fans. Just curious who has to go and who will stay from the current depth chart?

  54. Pouzar says:

    John Chambers: the Oilers’ main problem is that their forwards run a 3-man cycle while Calgary has the luxury of a 4- or 5-man rush and cycle.

    I couldn’t agree more with this. We just don’t have the personnel on the D side to effectively engage in the offensive zone. Until we get some more offensive minded d-men our forward group is maxed out.

  55. flyfish1168 says:

    Pouzar: I couldn’t agree more with this. We just don’t have the personnel on the D side to effectively engage in the offensive zone. Until we get some more offensive minded d-men our forward group is maxed out.

    It was impressive the chart they showed last evening, all the categories the phlegm d-men lead the league in. especially points and goals.

  56. Doubting Olive says:

    Colieo87:
    Doubting Olive,

    Haha opposite oiler dreds but ya my wild are are the wildthem selfS. Should be an interesting first round.Did you bet on Vegas odds. ?

    No, I don’t usually gamble outside of farmer bets and the work pool or if I go to the track (horses or dogs.) Not that I’m against it, just that it never occurs to me! I see a team with good odds do well and think “I really should have put a tenner on them.” Time for betting is just before the start of the season. Great odds then, spread a few long shots in with a few sure fires and you could have a nice surprise the following June!

    I remember both my grandfathers giving my brother and I 50p each for the Grand National and the Derby and the whole family would sit around and watch. We’d run a sweepstake as well, for 50p a pick, but having a large extended family, that was a good pot to win for a young boy in the Eighties!

    Then came adolescence, and going to the legion with my dad. That opened up the ‘blackouts’, which if you didn’t know, would be all the football team’s in a sweepstake raffle. Then my favourite, the meat raffle at the local pub!

    There, my gambling history.

    This year, if I had a spare $50, I would bet the Flames (spit) to win one round, then see what odds you get if they win….

    And if LA get in then watch out. I don’t know what MTL will do if Price has a bad game/series. Washington? Nah. Anaheim may get to the conference final, though if Getzlaf gets injured it makes it interesting. Jets (spit) may well be the dark horses of the west.

    But of all, I think the Isles might be the ones to make waves this year. And they may be set for next year too!

  57. leadfarmer says:

    I typically hate referee conspiracy theories, but that was the biggest bunch of B..S. I have seen in a long time.

    In case you missed it. Pittsburgh was getting a delayed penalty and Philly had possession for quite some time, before Kunitz blasted it at the empty net. He then got what he deserved. Refs give Giroux 2 min, Voracek 10 min misconduct. Kunitz gets nothing. Terrible.

  58. gogliano says:

    Pens sure get friendly reffing.

    … Beautiful pass by Couturier for the 3-1 goal.

  59. TheOtherJohn says:

    One of the few things in pro hockey you can count on is MAF, but not in a good way. Seriously. Checks stats: 920 sv% and wonder what gives and why are they struggling. Check last 5 games (before today) 304 TOI played with an .888 sv %.

    Astonishingly. Pitt has a long shot at missing SC playoffs. With 2 of 10 best players in world.

    Will read it here as all part of MacT’s grand plan if it happens

    Yet another story of without goaltending in NHL you are Bleeped!!

  60. leadfarmer says:

    That pens v sens game on Tuesday will be something.

  61. kinger_OIL says:

    Yesterday, I was assuming the OIL would try and test how high up the batting order Lander could play: put him between Ebs Poo, and Yak Hall, give him extra shitfs, find out if there’s any chem. Seems like a missed opportunity for the organization….

  62. speeds says:

    Beyond the extremely unlikely possibility that the PIT pick wins the lottery if PIT misses the playoffs, there are two main benefits to PIT missing the playoffs for that EDM pick. Most obviously, it would guarantee that pick is in the top 14, but additionally any risk that (in the case where PIT makes the playoffs) PIT wins two rounds and moves that pick into the 27-30 range is eliminated.

  63. Younger Oil says:

    If the Sens can win their last 4 games, there is a very, VERY good chance that the Penguins will miss the playoffs. It will be interesting to watch.

    Funny part is, the small chance to get a 1% chance to pick 1st and 4th in a generational draft is probably the most important last week of the season in the past 8 years for the Oilers.

  64. PeOiler says:

    Doubting Olive,

    I’ve been leaning into cheering for NYI for awhile. Now that they’ve signed my fellow Prince Edward Islander Ross Johnston to an ELC I will definitely be following them through the playoffs.

  65. smellyglove says:

    Younger Oil,

    “If the Sens with their last four games.”

    That’s a helluva big “if”! Cheering for them, of course.

    From analysis done by a poster here yesterday (or today), despite Pitt’s putridness, they are nearly a lock for the POs.

  66. gogliano says:

    smellyglove:
    Younger Oil,

    “If the Sens with their last four games.”

    That’s a helluva big “if”! Cheering for them, of course.

    From analysis done by a poster here yesterday (or today), despite Pitt’s putridness, they are nearly a lock for the POs.

    Not really close to a lock at this point. E.g. 1-2 with a win against BUF and they still stand a shot of getting passed by the remaining teams. If they go into Ottawa on Tuesday and lose in regulation–and Ottawa @ home is the pretty clear favorite–things will be interesting.

    http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Metropolitan/Pittsburgh2.html

  67. Younger Oil says:

    smellyglove,

    Looking at their schedule and past performances, PIT seems far from a lock to me.

    They’ve lost 3 straight, while the Senators have won 3 straight, and the Bruins have won five straight.

    If the Senators beat the Leafs tonight (which is very likely), and can beat the Pens in regulation on Tuesday, they will be one point ahead of the Penguins with two games to play. Both have one game against a team in the playoffs, and one with a team out of the playoffs for the remaining two games.

    It seems like it is going to be very, very close between the two. I bet that whoever wins on Tuesday will make it in.

  68. Woodguy says:

    Let’s say that David Poile phones up MacT in mid-June and says:

    “Weber for your first rounder, RNH and Klefbom or Nurse”

    What do you do?

    What does MacT do?

    Assume Oilers pick 3rd and PIT’s pick is 24th.

    What if he says: “Weber for your first, PIT’s 1st, Draisaitl and Klef/Nurse”

    What do you do?

    What does MacT do?

    For the sake of discussion assume Poile is shopping Weber, please don’t get into whether or not he would.

    For the sake of this discussion, he is.

  69. John Chambers says:

    smellyglove:
    Younger Oil,

    “If the Sens with their last four games.”

    That’s a helluva big “if”! Cheering for them, of course.

    From analysis done by a poster here yesterday (or today), despite Pitt’s putridness, they are nearly a lock for the POs.

    Well Pit just lost, and their next game is against the Sens followed by the Islanders.

    The NHL is all about momentum and the Penguins have none while Letang and Ehrhoff are both out with injuries.

    The impossible appears increasingly possible.

  70. John Chambers says:

    Woodguy,

    You say no to Poile both times.

    Those are both massive over-valuations for Shea Weber. The man is after all mortal … I think.

  71. Woodguy says:

    smellyglove,

    From analysis done by a poster here yesterday (or today), despite Pitt’s putridness, they are nearly a lock for the POs.

    If OTT wins today, those odds change very quickly.

    If OTT wins today then Tues PIT at OTT is for a playoff spot with both teams having 2 games left after Tuesday.

    Don’t forget that BOS/DET are in a similar spot too.

  72. speeds says:

    Woodguy:
    Let’s say that David Poile phones up MacT in mid-June and says:

    “Weber for your first rounder,RNH and Klefbom or Nurse”

    What do you do?

    What does MacT do?

    Assume Oilers pick 3rd and PIT’s pick is 24th.

    What if he says: “Weber for your first, PIT’s 1st, Draisaitl and Klef/Nurse”

    What do you do?

    What does MacT do?

    For the sake of discussion assume Poile is shopping Weber, please don’t get into whether or not he would.

    For the sake of this discussion, he is.

    I am not sure I would move 3OV for him, nevermind the rest of it.

  73. Woodguy says:

    John Chambers:
    Woodguy,

    You say no to Poile both times.

    Those are both massive over-valuations for Shea Weber. I mean the man is after all mortal … I think.

    What does MacT do?

    He’s looking for Pronger…….

  74. stush18 says:

    Not sure where this verbal about franson being a soft offense first defenseman comes from. As someone else mentioned earlier he runs through the toughs, and He is sporting a 50% corsi. Pretty impressive considering how much time he spent on the leafs. Unfortunately i dont know if we can afford to get him *cough nikinin cough*, but if we did, im thinking hes asking around 5×5. If people were willing to pay petry that, im not sure why we wouldnt do that with franson.

    Also i still believe in things like leadershi, so i wouldnt be opposed to bringing in an older player. Someone like beauchemin or martin or erhoff (pitt will prolly keep only one, especially with pouliot), if you could do it for around 3 yrs.

    Of course in bizarro world, we somehow get rid of ference and nikitin, and then next year would look like a competent defense.

    Beauchemin/Erhoff-franson
    Klefbom-fayne
    Marincin-schultz
    Aulie

    This of course wont ever happen because mact has nurse slotted into the lineup next year playing a prominant shutdown role.

    Which is why i keep saying that 2106-17 is the year they start turning a corner.

  75. Younger Oil says:

    stush18:

    Which is why i keep saying that 2106-17 is the year they start turning a corner.

    2106 sounds about right to me!

  76. stush18 says:

    Woodguy,

    Woodguy: What does MacT do?

    He’s looking for Pronger…….

    Does this team have enough pieces in place to go after weber? I feel like we would waste away 3 yrs before this team was deep enough to bother needing that piece.

  77. stush18 says:

    Younger Oil: 2106 sounds about right to me!

    It might even be a little optimistic! Lol

  78. Younger Oil says:

    Woodguy,

    If Polie offered me that, I would say no. At this stage of his career, Weber is not worth 3 top 10 picks, and the rest of the team is too far away to take advantage of Weber before he starts to decline. I would pay a King’s ransom for the NEXT Pronger/Weber possibly, but either way, making the trades you’re proposing puts our C depth back to square one.

    Now if I was MacT, and Polie offered me that, I would still say no. Not because I think the price is too dear, but if I’m MacT I’m happy with Schultz, Nikitin and Ference as part of the top 6 D for next year (as he has already idiotically stated).

  79. TheOtherJohn says:

    Woodguy,

    IF I was convinced Draisatl is a 2C in 2 years, I would trade Nash our 3/4 OV. Pittsburgh’s non lottery pick and Marincin for Weber. If he’d exchange Schultz for Marincin, I’d rather do that trade too. I would not pair the 3/4 in this draft with Nuge for anything- except maybe Toews but that’s about it.

  80. Edmonton_fan says:

    Dougie Hamilton is a young & very talented RD. He is a RFA. Boston has no money to match Edmonton’s offer sheet. We sign Hamilton for $6.5 million for 6 years. It only costs us next year’s 1st / 2nd / 3rd round picks & the money. But one of our major holes has vanished.

    We get to keep this years picks in a strong draft filling our pipeline – so we can afford to miss next year. And hopefully put the expensive, older, declining asset Phaneuf concept to bed…

  81. Ryan says:

    Woodguy:
    Let’s say that David Poile phones up MacT in mid-June and says:

    “Weber for your first rounder,RNH and Klefbom or Nurse”

    What do you do?

    What does MacT do?

    Assume Oilers pick 3rd and PIT’s pick is 24th.

    What if he says: “Weber for your first, PIT’s 1st, Draisaitl and Klef/Nurse”

    What do you do?

    What does MacT do?

    For the sake of discussion assume Poile is shopping Weber, please don’t get into whether or not he would.

    For the sake of this discussion, he is.

    That’s why I call this the Shea Weber paradox. Sure you might be able to trade for him, but you would have to subtract so many pieces, it wouldn’t make sense.

    The Oilers are remarkably light on prospects for a team that has spent this much time in the NHL’s basement.

    In your first proposal, you include RNH and the Oilers 1st. The odds that they have a playoff calibre centre depth chart while Weber has any tread left on the tires is basically zero under that scenario.

    In the second scenario, you’re still giving up on any chance of a second line centre procured internally.

    Let’s face it, even in a ridiculous hypothetical scenario where Nashville trades us Shea Weber for the proverbial bag of pucks. We’re better, but we’re still miles from being a lock to make the playoffs. Not only that, but his cap hit is nearly 8 million which would put us in cap hell for a few years.

    Let’s also not forget that he’ll be 30 next year. Weber would make more sense for a team like Colorado which as oodles of talented forwards, goaltending, and could possibly be fairly competitive with a player like Weber.

  82. TheOtherJohn says:

    Been reading of the mythical Dougie Hamilton RFA signing. He is a very good young top pairing guy. Think Boston would move Chara or Lucic to make space or let Hamilton walk for nothing?

    Wonder if Calgary would take Chara off Boston hands next year? Say for Smid and a pick. Imagine top 4 of Gio and Brodie and then Chara and Russell.

    Or maybe Bruins let a very good very young player walk to keep 2 declining assets.

    You guys might be right. Don’t think so, though

  83. GCW_69 says:

    godot10: One good season in a contract year, never facing tough minutes in his career vs. Petry, who has taken on the vaunt without help for three seasons.

    Petry, if he was slotted appropriately, would put up as much offense as Franson, and he is way better defensively.

    From the article:

    “Quality of Competition factors in the long term are virtually meaningless and not worth adjusting for. They should have no significant bearing on our perceptions of Franson’s performance as an NHL defender beyond informing us what his coaches think of him defensively.”

    It also should be noted that before playing with Gardiner last season, his most common partners were Fraser and then Liles. You remember Fraser, right? He hasn’t had rock star partners either, and those partners have done better with him than without him.

    Here is the money quote, “Over the last 3 seasons, when comparing to other NHL defenders with 1000+ minutes of 5v5 TOI, Franson ranks 224th of 228 Defensemen in terms of his Team Mate’s weighted CF% (TMCF%). The only D men playing with a worse average level of play from their teammates are Corey Potter in Boston, Leaf teammates Morgan Rielly and Jake Gardiner, and Jeff Petry of the Edmonton Oilers.”

    Franson is used to playing with Petry level help and succeeding, like Petry did. Sure Petry may be better in his own end, but Petry isn’t coming back. if Franson hits the market, he is probably the best fit for the Oilers.

  84. Ryan says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    Been reading of the mythical Dougie Hamilton RFA signing. He is a very good young top pairing guy. Think Boston would move Chara or Lucic to make space or let Hamilton walk for nothing?

    Wonder if Calgary would take Chara off Boston hands next year? Say for Smid and a pick. Imagine top 4 of Gio and Brodie and then Chara and Russell.

    Or maybe Bruins let a very good very young player walk to keep 2 declining assets.

    You guys might be right. Don’t think so, though

    Hahah Calgary. Frak.

    There’s no question that this season is a bit of an illusion in terms of their performance…

    Yet, they have buckets of cap space, an excellent top d pairing…

    I hate to say it ,but Calgary could have a really good summer if they help out some cap strapped teams and make some savvy free agent signings.

  85. Woodguy says:

    Edmonton_fan:
    Dougie Hamilton is a young & very talented RD. He is a RFA. Boston has no money to match Edmonton’s offer sheet. We sign Hamilton for $6.5 million for 6 years. It only costs us next year’s 1st / 2nd / 3rd round picks & the money. But one of our major holes has vanished.

    We get to keep this years picks in a strong draft filling our pipeline – so we can afford to miss next year. And hopefully put the expensive, older, declining asset Phaneuf concept to bed…

    Fans from every teams are dreaming up ways to sign Hamilton to an offer sheet.

    BOS will move heaven and earth to sign him before he can be sheeted (is that a word?) and I also bet every dollar they match any OS and clear the decks to make room.

  86. sliderule says:

    I didn’t read too much negativity about Musil .It was more about the scouting staff picking him too high and the hint of nepotism possibly influencing decision..

    When he was an oil king he lacked endurance and his skating would really get bogged down at end of shifts.Not uncommon for young big players see Leon at times.Didnt notice that last night so he is working on it.

  87. TheOtherJohn says:

    Ryan,

    While we pay Ference, Nikitan and Purcell real good $$

    Salary Cap management is a skill set and Oilers have no clue there too.

    Reason I used Calgary, imagine Chara playing 2nd pairing minutes and 20 TOI as his skills recede. Or maybe Boston keeps Chara and Lucic and let Hamilton walk for picks

  88. Woodguy says:

    Thanks for the responses.

    Everyone said what they would do, but I’m more interested in what MacT would do.

    If NAS re-signs Franson I think they’d be fine with Ellis, Franson and Jones on the right side.

    Ellis might be better at possession than Weber is today.

    Franson is good.

    Jones is ok, will be very good in a few years.

  89. Bank Shot says:

    Woodguy:
    Let’s say that David Poile phones up MacT in mid-June and says:

    “Weber for your first rounder,RNH and Klefbom or Nurse”

    What do you do?

    What does MacT do?

    Assume Oilers pick 3rd and PIT’s pick is 24th.

    What if he says: “Weber for your first, PIT’s 1st, Draisaitl and Klef/Nurse”

    What do you do?

    What does MacT do?

    For the sake of discussion assume Poile is shopping Weber, please don’t get into whether or not he would.

    For the sake of this discussion, he is.

    I wouldn’t do the first deal. Too weak at center to trade the only good one we have. No guarantees Draisaitl turns out 4th this year is too good to dump.

    I would do the second deal In a heartbeat.

    Pits first is whatever. 5 years from helping.

    Draisatl might be great. And he might turn into a run of the mill second liner as well.

    Klef/Nurse. I don’t see either of these guys becoming star defencemen.

    Weber is a superstar. Take the best player in the deal over lottery picks and draft another center at 4.

    I really don’t see how anyone turns down that second deal from an Oilers perspective.

  90. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy:
    Thanks for the responses.

    Everyone said what they would do, but I’m more interested in what MacT would do.

    If NAS re-signs Franson I think they’d be fine with Ellis, Franson and Jones on the right side.

    Ellis might be better at possession than Weber is today.

    Franson is good.

    Jones is ok, will be very good in a few years.

    WG….I think MacT would do any of those packages you suggested.

  91. Younger Oil says:

    Bank Shot,

    If I’m reading it correctly we’d be giving up the #3/4 pick as well as Drai, Nurse/Kbom, and the PIT 1st.

  92. Younger Oil says:

    I know I’ve mentioned it before, but the Dman I’d be going after from NAS is Josi.

    Amazing contract, younger, and putting up better offensive numbers than Weber, and can play well defensively too, has identical usage to Weber it seems.

    He’s less physical, and doesn’t have as big of a bomb from the point, but is a better shot blocker and playmaker.

  93. Ryan says:

    Woodguy:
    Thanks for the responses.

    Everyone said what they would do, but I’m more interested in what MacT would do.

    If NAS re-signs Franson I think they’d be fine with Ellis, Franson and Jones on the right side.

    Ellis might be better at possession than Weber is today.

    Franson is good.

    Jones is ok, will be very good in a few years.

    Alright. Mact has shown us that he doesn’t lose much sleep concerning himself with the Oilers centre depth chart. He’s also on the hot seat right now. He’s chasing Pronger. Be afraid… Be very afraid…

    I don’t think even he would be foolish enough to trade nuge…

    Depending on the lotto, I still can’t see him including both Drai and this year’s Oilers first.

    I could see him trading the Oilers’ first, Pittsburgh’s 1st, and Yak for Weber. 🙂

  94. Rondo says:

    Woodguy,

    Weber will be 30 this summer. Who knows what he will be like in 3 years. I wouldn’t do it. If Oilers were a team that was close to competing for the Stanley Cup, then I would think about it.

  95. Ryan says:

    Rondo:
    Woodguy,

    Weber will be 30 this summer. Who knows what he will be like in 3 years. I wouldn’t do it. If Oilers were a team that was close to competing for the Stanley Cup, then I would think about it.

    Oilers don’t age well. It’s kind of a thing.

    Weber gets trade to Detroit, his play will slowly decline at age 36 and he plays at a high level until he’s 40.

    Weber gets traded to the Oilers, maybe he catches a rut at Rexall… Or either way, by the time he’s 33, he’s done.

  96. Bank Shot says:

    Younger Oil:
    Bank Shot,

    If I’m reading it correctly we’d be giving up the #3/4 pick as well as Drai, Nurse/Kbom, and the PIT 1st.

    Ah, I missed that.

    That makes it a much tougher decision.

    You’d be gutting any potential depth.

  97. cabbiesmacker says:

    Younger Oil:
    I know I’ve mentioned it before, but the Dman I’d be going after from NAS is Josi.

    Amazing contract, younger, and putting up better offensive numbers than Weber, and can play well defensively too, has identical usage to Weber it seems.

    He’s less physical, and doesn’t have as big ofa bomb from the point, but is a better shot blocker and playmaker.

    Based on everything you’ve mentioned why would Nashville even think about trading him then?

    98% they wouldn’t so….

  98. Oiler94 says:

    Woodguy,

    Does Kevin Lowe intercept the call and do his best Mac T impersonation and say “ahh Ya whatever you want we’ll take him”?

  99. frjohnk says:

    Happy Easter people.

    If Ottawa beats Toronto today. Sens r 1 point back of Pittsburgh.

    Ottawa Pittsburgh game on Tuesday is a big one.

  100. stush18 says:

    Woodguy: Fans from every teams are dreaming up ways to sign Hamilton to an offer sheet.

    BOS will move heaven and earth to sign him before he can be sheeted (is that a word?) and I also bet every dollar they match any OS and clear the decks to make room.

    Exactly. If we have so smartly noticed that hamilton is such an amazing player, you dont think that boston has? If theres anyone on that team available i think it would be marchand. Im almost not sure if hes worth how much trouble he causes. One of those players that crosses the line a little bit too much.

  101. flyfish1168 says:

    JMHO.I believe even with Shea we are still to far away to win more then one round or even make the PO’s , so I wouldn’t make this trade. There will be other opportunities for top d men when we are one player away. we are now at a critical and dangerous time of the rebuild. Patience probably is best not to unravel everything and make this a short term gain and long term pain again.

  102. Younger Oil says:

    cabbiesmacker: Based on everything you’ve mentioned why would Nashville even think about trading him then?

    98% they wouldn’t so….

    Considering that they’ve already paid for about half of Weber’s contract already money wise, I would say they are just as likely to trade Weber as Josi.

    Which I still admit incredibly unlikely, but I would probably pay more for Josi than I would Weber is what I’m saying.

    Not as much as WG was proposing for Weber mind you, but still a significant amount.

  103. Bad Seed says:

    flyfish1168,

    I don’t think we’ve got anything to worry about. Weber would veto a trade here faster than you could offer them Jultz. He didn’t go through all those growing pains in Nashville to go to a floundering team like this with no end in sight.

  104. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy,

    I love Weber almost as much as Doughty but patience is required.

    Weber might have 5-6 good years left but as he declines Nurse will keep getting better and will pass him.

    Maybe in 3, maybe 4 years.

    Someone would overpay for weber hope it’s not us.

    Patience is required but I’m not sure how much MacT has. Or better yet , how much patience does Batman have?

  105. Edmonton_fan says:

    Woodguy: Fans from every teams are dreaming up ways to sign Hamilton to an offer sheet.

    BOS will move heaven and earth to sign him before he can be sheeted (is that a word?) and I also bet every dollar they match any OS and clear the decks to make room.

    Let us try this one more time. In the words of Edmonton’s Guru – “Bold Move”!

    How can Boston move Heaven and Earth? Look at: http://stats.nhlnumbers.com/teams/BOS?year=2015

    Then compare their salaries with the following.

    Patrice Bergeron – NMC through 2019-20, Limited no trade after
    Milan Lucic – modified NTC
    David Krejci – NMC
    Brad Marchand – modified NTC
    Louis Eriksson – NTC may be voided with trade
    Chris Kelly – limited NTC
    Zdeno Chara – NMC
    Dennis Seidenberg – NTC, modified NTC after Jan. 1 2017
    Tuukka Rask – NMC though 2016-17, limited NTC after

    Every expensive contract that Boston has – can not be moved. And they have no cap space to match the offer…

  106. flyfish1168 says:

    Bad Seed:
    flyfish1168,

    I don’t think we’ve got anything to worry about.Weber would veto a trade here faster than you could offer them Jultz.He didn’t go through all those growing pains in Nashville to go to a floundering team like this with no end in sight.

    I agree with you. Shea wouldn’t come here unless he sees clearly we are very close. Which we are not. That I believe is one of the reasons why we have a difficult time attracting the top UFA’s.

  107. Woodguy says:

    Bad Seed:
    flyfish1168,

    I don’t think we’ve got anything to worry about.Weber would veto a trade here faster than you could offer them Jultz.He didn’t go through all those growing pains in Nashville to go to a floundering team like this with no end in sight.

    Weber does not have a NTC or NMC.

    Philly’s offer sheet didn’t contain either clause.

    Once NAS matched the OS Weber’s agent asked for a NTC and was refused.

    Weber has no control on where he goes.

  108. VOR says:

    WG, does MacT strike you as a guy who doesnt know the history of the NHL? Personally I think if anything he may be too attached to the past. Given that, these deals are both like the Kings trading to get Jerry Korab in 1980. As many here have said big body defencemen age quickly and when the wheels do fall off it is often spectacular. King Kong is the poster boy. He had one more great season in 1980-1981 and then was never more than a 6/7 D after that. The asset LA gave up was a draft choice that was used to pick Phil Housely. So you are asking what MacT would do if offered those trades? He would tell Poile to go piss up a rope. MacT also knows Poile loves to pick other GMs pockets, see Forsberg, Filip. No way MacT ignores recent and ancient history and does a deal for an aging big body D with a GM who wins nearly every trade he makes.

  109. Woodguy says:

    Edmonton_fan: Let us try this one more time. In the words of Edmonton’s Guru – “Bold Move”!

    How can Boston move Heaven and Earth? Look at: http://stats.nhlnumbers.com/teams/BOS?year=2015

    Then compare their salaries with the following.

    Patrice Bergeron – NMC through 2019-20, Limited no trade after
    Milan Lucic – modified NTC
    David Krejci – NMC
    Brad Marchand – modified NTC
    Louis Eriksson – NTC may be voided with trade
    Chris Kelly – limited NTC
    Zdeno Chara – NMC
    Dennis Seidenberg – NTC, modified NTC after Jan. 1 2017
    Tuukka Rask – NMC though 2016-17, limited NTC after

    Every expensive contract that Boston has – can not be moved. And they have no cap space to match the offer…

    Players with NTC’s get traded all the time.

    They’d clear out Lucic or Eriksson for futures pretty quickly.

    Once a player gets told they aren’t wanted by a team they usually waive (with some control)

    Only one that I can think of refusing was Thorton.

  110. Bad Seed says:

    flyfish1168,

    I’m sure every high profile player and every agent in the league knows this team is run by buffoons. It’s gotta be common knowledge by now. Oiler’s mgmt probably sits at the kid’s table and drinks their pop in league meetings.

  111. VanOil says:

    It is a ‘No’ to Weber for me as the price in assets and cap room would be too high for a player of his age. I am more willing to bid up for a ‘next Weber’ though.

    I would be loath to trade Yakupov for Adam Larsson because I love the young Tartar’s attitude and ability but recognize it might be fair value. I free Yakupov’s spark might drown in the swamp as it did under Eakins

    I would prefer Jultz + 2016 1st and a salary retained Purcell. An Oilers 1st should be pretty tempting for other GM’s and I would like the Oilers GM to be painted into a corner of trying to improve the team now rather than being rewarded for his incompetency.

  112. Woodguy says:

    VOR,

    Given MacT’s contract to Ference and contract offer to Clarkson, I don’t think he knows NHL history very well.

    I also don’t think he values Dmen properly in regards to how the game is played today.

    In short, I can see him giving a massive overpay for Weber or similar.

  113. Edmonton_fan says:

    Woodguy:

    Once a player gets told they aren’t wanted by a team they usually waive (with some control)

    Only one that I can think of refusing was Thorton.

    Mats Sundin & Dany Heatley also refused trades. I am sure there are others that never hit the media.

    We will not know what occurs until we try. And an accepted offer sheet ensures the player wants to come to Edmonton. Better than trading for someone who does not want to be here; i.e. Chris Pronger.

  114. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk:
    Woodguy,

    I love Weber almost as much as Doughty but patience is required.

    Weber might have 5-6 good years left but as he declines Nurse will keep getting better and will pass him.

    Maybe in 3, maybe 4 years.

    Someone would overpay for weber hope it’s not us.

    Patience is required but I’m not sure how much MacT has. Or better yet , how much patience does Batman have?

    I think Weber is a good Dman, but I don’t have him in the Doughty level.

    There’s only Karlsson, Doughty, Hedman, Subban, and maybe someone I’m missing at that level.

  115. Ca$h-Money! says:

    Woodguy: Players with NTC’s get traded all the time.

    They’d clear out Lucic or Eriksson for futures pretty quickly.

    Once a player gets told they aren’t wanted by a team they usually waive (with some control)

    Only one that I can think of refusing was Thorton.

    You are correct. They usually say something along the lines of “sure, as long as you don’t send me to Edmonton”

  116. Woodguy says:

    Edmonton_fan: Mats Sundin & Dany Heatley also refused trades. I am sure there are others that never hit the media.

    We will not know what occurs until we try. And an accepted offer sheet ensures the player wants to come to Edmonton. Better than trading for someone who does not want to be here.

    I didn’t say it shouldn’t be tried.

    I said don’t get your hopes up and every other fan base wants their team to OS him too.

  117. Woodguy says:

    Ca$h-Money!: You are correct. They usually say something along the lines of “sure, as long as you don’t send me to Edmonton”

    Pretty much.

  118. Woodguy says:

    Younger Oil:
    I know I’ve mentioned it before, but the Dman I’d be going after from NAS is Josi.

    Amazing contract, younger, and putting up better offensive numbers than Weber, and can play well defensively too, has identical usage to Weber it seems.

    He’s less physical, and doesn’t have as big ofa bomb from the point, but is a better shot blocker and playmaker.

    I like Ellis a lot.

    He might be better than Weber today except for the big shot.

  119. flyfish1168 says:

    Bad Seed:
    flyfish1168,

    I’m sure every high profile player and every agent in the league knows this team is run by buffoons.It’s gotta be common knowledge by now.Oiler’s mgmt probably sits at the kid’s table and drinks their pop in league meetings.

    Don’t forget the wives too. They don’ t want to come either.

  120. Woodguy says:

    Younger Oil: Considering that they’ve already paid for about half of Weber’s contract already money wise, I would say they are just as likely to trade Weber as Josi.

    Which I still admit incredibly unlikely, but I would probably pay more for Josi than I would Weber is what I’m saying.

    Not as much as WG was proposing for Weber mind you, but still a significant amount.

    If they can resign Franson they’d be fine on the right side without Weber.

    They need forward help, especially C, still in a big way.

    If I’m Poile I trade Weber as he:

    1) brings the most back
    2) currently costs me the most
    3) I’m deepest on RHD, so I’m trading from strength
    4) He’s coming up to his declining years soon and that’s a looooooooong contract which will be harder to move with each passing year. (if you’re inclined to move him, which I’m assuming he is)

  121. Магия 10 says:

    LT, ~ you missed Hall on the centre depth chart ~

  122. Edmonton_fan says:

    Woodguy: I didn’t say it shouldn’t be tried.

    I said don’t get your hopes up and every other fan base wants their team to OS him too.

    Trust me; I never get my hopes up when it comes to Lowe / MacT. But I believe the best option available to improve our D is to offer sheet Hamilton. We get a 1st line RD for 6 years just starting to bloom – without giving up assets; which solves 50% of our challenges on defense.

  123. Woodguy says:

    Link to some interesting charts re: Weber vs other NAS Dmen.

    @muneebalamcu: Addressing comp isn’t something I have gotten around to, but here’s NSH with Weber after each type of draw.

    pic.twitter.com/4KL6F11R8V

    Edit: not sure if that worked on I’m on my phone so cutting and pasting the link is near impossible.

  124. Woodguy says:

    Edmonton_fan: Trust me; I never get my hopes up when it comes to Lowe / MacT. But I believe the best option available to improve our D is to offer sheet Hamilton. We get a 1st line RD for 6 years just starting to bloom – without giving up assets; which solves 50% of our challenges on defense.

    I agree you should try.

    I just think there’s no way it works and it shouldn’t be counted upon.

  125. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Woodguy: BOS will move heaven and earth to sign him before he can be sheeted (is that a word?) and I also bet every dollar they match any OS and clear the decks to make room.

    Sheeted
    verb
    1 [ with obj. ] cover with or wrap in a sheet or sheets: we sheeted a narrow bed.
    2 [ no obj. ] (of rain) fall in large quantities: rain sheeted down.

    Hope this helps clear any confusion Woodguy!

  126. Marc says:

    Edmonton_fan: Let us try this one more time. In the words of Edmonton’s Guru – “Bold Move”!

    How can Boston move Heaven and Earth? Look at: http://stats.nhlnumbers.com/teams/BOS?year=2015

    Then compare their salaries with the following.

    Patrice Bergeron – NMC through 2019-20, Limited no trade after
    Milan Lucic – modified NTC
    David Krejci – NMC
    Brad Marchand – modified NTC
    Louis Eriksson – NTC may be voided with trade
    Chris Kelly – limited NTC
    Zdeno Chara – NMC
    Dennis Seidenberg – NTC, modified NTC after Jan. 1 2017
    Tuukka Rask – NMC though 2016-17, limited NTC after

    Every expensive contract that Boston has – can not be moved. And they have no cap space to match the offer…

    Boston has $7M in UFA salaries coming off the books at the end of the season. They’ve also had their cap reduced by $4.8M this year because they exceeded last season. That presumably won’t be the case next season, so that means they have approximately $12M in cap space to play with.

    $6M is spoken for raises for Krejci, Smith and Krug, so matching a $6.5M offer would take up pretty much all of their remaining cap space and leave them needing 3F, 2D and 1G. Definitely a tough spot.

    But if they fill those spots with league minimum guys, they only need to clear $3M or so in space, which they can do if they move just one of the 8 players currently on their roster that earn $4M+. The NTCs and NMCs will make it tricky, but I’m guessing any GM would rather try to find a place that Eriksson or Marchand would be happy to go than give up Hamilton for picks.

  127. godot10 says:

    Boston is going to get out of cap hell by trading Marc Savard to Arizona (or a team like that) that needs to get to the cap floor. Savard is only due, like $525K per season for two more years, with a cap hit of $4 million.

    Go get Soderberg (if you can’t get Sobotka).

    Franson “sucks”. He is a #4.5 D. The Oilers have lots of #4.5’s I’m tired of the Weber whale hunting. Poile isn’t going to trade him, nor sign Franson. He knows D.

  128. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Marc,

    I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bruins trade Milan Lucic and his $6M cap hit…lots of rumours over the past several months.

  129. fifthcartel says:

    I actually like Franson a lot for the Oilers. He covers the #fancystats side of things, is big (6’5 215), hits, and has a plus shot for the power play. I think the only minus is his skating, but he seems to be doing fine with it, and the Oilers have been okay with other less than stellar skaters (Whitney, Belov, Nikitin).

    Could this be a guy the analytics group and MacT and co. agree on?

  130. Woodguy says:

    Klima’s_Bucket: Sheeted
    verb
    1 [ with obj. ] cover with or wrap in a sheet or sheets: we sheeted a narrow bed.
    2 [ no obj. ] (of rain) fall in large quantities: rain sheeted down.

    Hope this helps clear any confusion Woodguy!

    Perfect!

  131. Woodguy says:

    godot10:
    Boston is going to get out of cap hell by trading Marc Savard to Arizona (or a team like that) that needs to get to the cap floor.Savard is only due, like $525K per season for two more years, with a cap hit of $4 million.

    Go get Soderberg (if you can’t get Sobotka).

    Franson “sucks”. He is a #4.5 D.The Oilers have lots of #4.5’s I’m tired of the Weber whale hunting.Poile isn’t going to trade him,nor sign Franson.He knows D.

    Ellis would be 1RD
    Franson 2RD
    Jones 3RD

    Jones will pass Franson in a few years.

    I think Franson is a fine 2RD.

    Ellis is the goods.

    Ridiculous number in very similar situations to Weber.

  132. Edmonton_fan says:

    Marc: Boston has $7M in UFA salaries coming off the books at the end of the season.They’ve also had their cap reduced by $4.8M this year because they exceeded last season.That presumably won’t be the case next season, so that means they have approximately $12M in cap space to play with.

    $6M is spoken for raises for Krejci, Smith and Krug, so matching a $6.5M offer would take up pretty much all of their remaining cap space and leave them needing 3F, 2D and 1G.Definitely a tough spot.

    But if they fill those spots with league minimum guys, they only need to clear $3M or so in space, which they can do if they move just one of the 8 players currently on their roster that earn $4M+.

    You are correct that extensions to Krejci / Smith / Krug total $14 million – which is an increase of $6 million. This is why Boston is in cap he**. And that they will need to dump a $3 million player just to have cap space to sign at league minimum 3F, 2D and 1G. Leaving the team weak depth-wise.

    This is why a $6.5 million offer to Dougie Hamilton is a Bold Move. One that we have been promised for years. If it works, Great. If not, life goes on… And yes I know that only eight offer sheets have been accepted over the past 15 years. And the only one not matched was Edmonton’s for Dustin Penner.

    But we don’t know unless we try – the Bold Move is in Kevin Lowe’s lap…

  133. stevezie says:

    Woodguy,

    I think MacT turns down the first because–and I have no “evidence” to back this up– I think the team wants to win with the Nuge, Hall, Eberle trio. It’s not just that they believe in them, they seem to really want them. Schutlz too, but even Abraham would have some doubts there by now.

    I think he would think long and hard about the second one. You can debate where in the D totem pole Weber should slot, but even skeptics would agree he is at least a legitimate #1, right? The Oilers desperately need one of those, and his impact would be immediate. You’re not losing Klef or Nurse so much as accelerating his development to immediate best-case scenario. That’s worth some lottery tickets.

    I say no to both, but I don’t think that second one is crazy.

    The idea behind building through the draft is you accumulate enough good young players that you can turn a few of the extra ones into Spezza or Seguin or whomever you like when the time comes. The problem is the Oilers over-gutted the team and have no “extra” players at all. Depth is as big a problem for this team as top-end talent is. (As CO was fonding of saying, we are basically an expansion team).

    We need everything. We briefly had an excess of wingers, but with Hemsky and Perron gone I don’t think we have any positions of strength. We could move one or two of Drai/1st2015/Nurse/Klef if the right deal came along, but I don’t think we can afford to make it three or four. We need depth as badly as we need Weber. It wasn’t an all-star that turned NYI around, it was a goalie and a couple of jacks/tens.

  134. stevezie says:

    Sorry for going on and on. It’s time for final papers and I am clinging to every distraction I can find.

  135. stevezie says:

    Edmonton_fan,

    I think the move is a lot closer to “no-brainer” than “bold”. I am all for trying it, but I don’t think we would be the only team willing to offer Dougie that deal so I don’t like our odds of being the team to get him to sign it and Boston being unable to find a way to match.

    But yeah, do it. It would give us one more young player who gets paid before he wins, but I’m not too worried about that narrative.

  136. Woodguy says:

    stevezie:
    Woodguy,

    I think MacT turns down the first because–and I have no “evidence” to back this up– I think the team wants to win with the Nuge, Hall, Eberle trio. It’s not just that they believe in them, they seem to really want them. Schutlz too, but even Abraham would have some doubts there by now.

    I think he would think long and hard about the second one. You can debate where in the D totem pole Weber should slot, but even skeptics would agree he is at least a legitimate #1, right? The Oilers desperately need one of those, and his impact would be immediate. You’re not losing Klef or Nurse so much as accelerating his development to immediate best-case scenario. That’s worth some lottery tickets.

    I say no to both, but I don’t think that second one is crazy.

    The idea behind building through the draft is you accumulate enough good young players that you can turn a few of the extra ones into Spezza or Seguin or whomever you like when the time comes. The problem is the Oilers over-gutted the team and have no “extra” players at all. Depth is as big a problem for this team as top-end talent is.(As CO was fonding of saying, we are basically an expansion team).

    We need everything. We briefly had an excess of wingers, but with Hemsky and Perron gone I don’t think we have any positions of strength. We could move one or two of Drai/1st2015/Nurse/Klef if the right deal came along, but I don’t think we can afford to make it three or four. We need depth as badly as we need Weber. It wasn’t an all-star that turned NYI around, it was a goalie and a couple of jacks/tens.

    Good post.

    I agree.

  137. Bank Shot says:

    How are Ellis’s situations close to Weber’s?

    I see:
    OFF zone starts:
    Ellis: 56.5%
    Weber45.6%

    And a big gap between qual comp.

    I bet you put Weber on the Oilers and all of a sudden, everyone else’s fancy stats start looking better.

  138. Woodguy says:

    Bank Shot:
    How are Ellis’s situations close to Weber’s?

    I see:
    OFF zone starts:
    Ellis: 56.5%
    Weber45.6%

    And a big gap between qual comp.

    I bet you put Weber on the Oilers and all of a sudden, everyone else’s fancy stats start looking better.

    I’ll get deeper into that when I’m back at a PC.

    Ellis with a slight edge imo.

  139. stevezie says:

    Woodguy,

    Thanks.

    This is also my rational for trading down if we get a good offer. This might change if one of our prospective pics really seperates himself in the playoffs.

  140. Woodguy says:

    Bank Shot:
    How are Ellis’s situations close to Weber’s?

    I see:
    OFF zone starts:
    Ellis: 56.5%
    Weber45.6%

    And a big gap between qual comp.

    I bet you put Weber on the Oilers and all of a sudden, everyone else’s fancy stats start looking better.

    Here’s NSH Vollman chart for their D: http://somekindofninja.com/nhl/usage.php?f1=2014_s&f2=5v5&f3=&f5=NSH&f4=D&f7=20-&bubbleType=corsiRel&yAxis=qoc&update-filters=Update+Results

    Ellis gets a massive advantage in zone starts, but the QC is similar to Weber’s.

    As it turns out, most of ozone disparity due to the dzone starts taken with Gaustad’s line.

    Weber TOI w/ Gaustad 348 min, 12.7%OZS

    Ellis takes his turn at those starts, but not as many minutes: 99:52 min, 8.2% OZS

    So Ellis doesn’t play as much with Gaustad, but gets the brutal starts with him too (even worse)

    One way to tease out some of the difference of the difference in impact between Weber and Ellis is to look at the with each of the 4 main NAS C’s in terms of CF% WOWY and OZS%.

    Ribero:

    With Weber 411 min – 56.5% CF – 65.5% OZS – CF% w/o Weber 56.8%
    With Ellis 288 min – 60.5%CF – 70.2% OZS – CF% w/o Ellis 55.6%

    Gaustad:

    With Weber 348 min – 40.2%CF – 12.7%OZS – CF% w/o Weber 44.6%
    With Ellis 99min – 48.0%CF – 8.2% OZS – CF% w/o Ellis 41.1%

    Fisher
    With Weber 310min – 50.3% CF – 50.4% OZS – CF% w/o Weber 49.7%
    With Ellis 136min – 52.2% CF – 43.9% OZS – CF% w/o Ellis 51.8%

    Jarnkrok
    With Weber 250 min – 48.3% CF – 55.6% OZS – CF% w/o Weber 57.5%
    With Ellis 178 min – 54.2% CF – 53.9% OZS – CF% w/o Ellis 54.3%

    All 4 of NSH’s C’s do better with Ellis than with Weber.

    That includes Gaustad and his awful starts. He’s actually much better with Ellis with the same awful ZS, its just that Weber gets more of them.

    Fisher does better with Ellis even though they start in the OZ 6% more with Weber than Ellis.

    I don’t know if we can contribute all the results on just Weber or Ellis, their partners (Josi and Ekholm respectively) are on the ice too.

    What this does show me is that Ellis/Ekholm get better possession results in the same or tougher spots than Weber/Josi with the same team mates.

    In some spots significantly better.

  141. Numenius says:

    stevezie: Schutlz too, but even Abraham would have some doubts there by now.

    Love this. Nailed it.

  142. stevezie says:

    Numenius,

    🙂

  143. Bank Shot says:

    Woodguy: Here’s NSH Vollman chart for their D: http://somekindofninja.com/nhl/usage.php?f1=2014_s&f2=5v5&f3=&f5=NSH&f4=D&f7=20-&bubbleType=corsiRel&yAxis=qoc&update-filters=Update+Results

    Ellis gets a massive advantage in zone starts, but the QC is similar to Weber’s.

    As it turns out, most of ozone disparity due to the dzone starts taken with Gaustad’s line.

    Weber TOI w/ Gaustad 348 min, 12.7%OZS

    Ellis takes his turn at those starts, but not as many minutes: 99:52 min, 8.2% OZS

    So Ellis doesn’t play as much with Gaustad, but gets the brutal starts with him too (even worse)

    One way to tease out some of the differenceof the difference in impact between Weber and Ellis is to look at the with each of the 4 main NAS C’s in terms of CF% WOWY and OZS%.

    Ribero:

    With Weber 411 min –56.5% CF – 65.5% OZS – CF% w/o Weber 56.8%
    With Ellis 288 min – 60.5%CF – 70.2% OZS – CF% w/o Ellis 55.6%

    Gaustad:

    With Weber 348 min – 40.2%CF – 12.7%OZS – CF% w/o Weber 44.6%
    With Ellis 99min – 48.0%CF – 8.2% OZS – CF% w/o Ellis 41.1%

    Fisher
    With Weber 310min – 50.3% CF –50.4% OZS – CF% w/o Weber 49.7%
    With Ellis 136min – 52.2% CF – 43.9% OZS– CF% w/o Ellis 51.8%

    Jarnkrok
    With Weber 250 min – 48.3% CF – 55.6% OZS – CF% w/o Weber 57.5%
    With Ellis 178 min – 54.2% CF – 53.9% OZS – CF% w/o Ellis 54.3%

    All 4 of NSH’s C’s do better with Ellis than with Weber.

    That includes Gaustad and his awful starts.He’s actually much better with Ellis with the same awful ZS, its just that Weber gets more of them.

    Fisher does better with Ellis even though they start in the OZ 6% more with Weber than Ellis.

    I don’t know if we can contribute all the results on just Weber or Ellis, their partners (Josi and Ekholm respectively) are on the ice too.

    What this does show me is that Ellis/Ekholm get better possession results in the same or tougher spots than Weber/Josi with the same team mates.

    In some spots significantly better.

    We still don’t know a lot about the situations we are talking about. When Weber goes out for an own zone draw with Gaustad does he face the same level of competition as Ellis does?

    We know for a fact that Weber faces superior opposition. What no one has been able to do thus far is categorize quality of opposition in a linear line so that we can actually rate quality of comp amongst teammates and across teams. It’s all just an approximation. We do know that Weber faces a tougher road then Ellis though. There is no debate there. All the numbers show it.

    I’m thinking it is a more significant quality of comp difference than you do. Weber gets the top matchups. Weber plays the most on the PK. Weber gets the inferior Ozone starts. Weber gets the most minutes when the Preds are up by one in the third period. Weber plays the most when the other team’s goalie is pulled. Weber gets the most minutes period. All of those things drag on corsi.

    I think the majority of what you are seeing and interpreting to be differences in level of ability are actually differences in usage as controlled by the coach. Two different coaches have saw fit to play Weber 4-5 minutes more per game at even strength than Ellis. Do you think if Ellis was significantly outplaying Weber when facing equal opposition that the coaches wouldn’t notice this over 160 games and increase Ellis’s minutes accordingly?

    Corsi isn’t foolproof when it comes to defencemen and I think its being interpreted like it is a better indicator than it has proven to be. We are missing the info required to make better use of it.

    This Ellis might be better than Weber talk, to me is the same as the talk during the last offseason that had Mark Fayne billed as a giant steal in free agency. MC79 was talking about him like he was a guy that pushes the river in New Jersey. He always posted strong possession numbers in Jersey.

    Well the situation changed and he’s been alright, but certainly nothing special in Edmonton. He doesn’t drive possession, that is for sure.

    It’s kind of odd how we all rave about the job that Boyd Gordon does here in Edmonton despite his poor corsi, but that credit never seems to extend to players on other teams in similar situations.

  144. Woodguy says:

    Bank Shot,

    We know for a fact that Weber faces superior opposition. What no one has been able to do thus far is categorize quality of opposition in a linear line so that we can actually rate quality of comp amongst teammates and across teams. It’s all just an approximation. We do know that Weber faces a tougher road then Ellis though. There is no debate there. All the numbers show it

    The Vollman chart had their QC almost dead even.

    Do you think if Ellis was significantly outplaying Weber when facing equal opposition that the coaches wouldn’t notice this over 160 games and increase Ellis’s minutes accordingly?

    No, this is the first year Ellis has put up these kind of numbers.

    He’s 6 years from being drafted.

    Corsi isn’t foolproof when it comes to defencemen and I think its being interpreted like it is a better indicator than it has proven to be. We are missing the info required to make better use of it.

    I agree with this, which is why its better to just use CA and not CF%, but the results similar.

    Analyzing 2 Dmen on the same team who never play with each other and using the 4 main C’s as line proxies takes a lot of the grey area away imo.

    This Ellis might be better than Weber talk, to me is the same as the talk during the last offseason that had Mark Fayne billed as a giant steal in free agency. MC79 was talking about him like he was a guy that pushes the river in New Jersey. He always posted strong possession numbers in Jersey.

    Yea and no. His numbers away from Greene in the last season were a concern.

    It’s kind of odd how we all rave about the job that Boyd Gordon does here in Edmonton despite his poor corsi, but that credit never seems to extend to players on other teams in similar situations.

    I’m not sure who you are talking about here.

    Who isn’t getting credit while playing in a similar situation as Gordon?

  145. Bank Shot says:

    Woodguy:


    The Vollman chart had their QC almost dead even.

    Almost is not even. Weber is out ahead. behindthenet gives a more significant difference.


    No, this is the first year Ellis has put up these kind of numbers.

    He’s 6 years from being drafted.

    He put up the highest relcorsi on the team last year as well.


    I agree with this, which is why its better to just use CA and not CF%, but the results similar.

    Analyzing 2 Dmen on the same team who never play with each other and using the 4 main C’s as line proxies takes a lot of the grey area away imo.

    There is still too much grey area if corsi is representing Ellis as a better defenceman than Weber.


    Yea and no.His numbers away from Greene in the last season were a concern.

    I never read a peep of concern about Fayne in the last offseason. He was going to be the steal of free agency. Any concern is using hindsight.


    I’m not sure who you are talking about here.

    Who isn’t getting credit while playing in a similar situation as Gordon?

    Any defensive defenceman on any team other than the Oilers. Especially if they are physical.

    If the logic applied to Ellis=Weber is applied to other teams, does that make Spurgeon and Muzzin the real heroes in Minnesota and LA?

  146. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk:
    A decent article on Shea Webers rel corsi

    http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/digging-into-shea-webers-poor-relative-corsi/

    There was a long twitter discussion on the flaws in that piece, including ignoring how the other D did in the same situations.

  147. Woodguy says:

    Bank Shot: Any defensive defenceman on any team other than the Oilers. Especially if they are physical.

    If the logic applied to Ellis=Weber is applied to other teams, does that make Spurgeon and Muzzin the real heroes in Minnesota and LA?

    I’m not following.

    Suter gets easier zone starts than Spurgeon.

    Muzzin usually plays with Doughty.

    Neither of them get tough zone starts.

  148. Bank Shot says:

    Woodguy: I’m not following.

    Suter gets easier zone starts than Spurgeon.

    Muzzin usually plays with Doughty.

    Neither of them get tough zone starts.

    Both guys have better relcorsi than the star players. It doesn’t make them better defencemen.

  149. Loweblow says:

    Alan you seriously need to watch a Barons game, if you did you would see how bad D.Simpson is. You do have the people in Bakersfield laughing saying he is a NHLer. One thing tonight in the Barons 4-1 loss, the NCAA D was real soft and ugly. They couldn’t hurt a fly, don’t see how they could help the Oilers, even the Condors next season. More of a liability than anything. Oesterle has been up and down, was playing 3rd pair before the big Musil was called up. Musil looked pretty good tonight, skating not as bad as some media people have been saying.

  150. Lowetide says:

    Loweblow:
    Alan you seriously need to watch a Barons game, if you did you would see how bad D.Simpson is. You do have the people in Bakersfield laughing saying he is a NHLer. One thing tonight in the Barons 4-1 loss, the NCAA D was real soft and ugly. They couldn’t hurt a fly, don’t see how they could help the Oilers, even the Condors next season. More of a liability than anything. Oesterle has been up and down, was playing 3rd pair before the big Musil was called up. Musil looked pretty good tonight, skating not as bad as some media people have been saying.

    Dillon Simpson doesn’t play in Bakersfield, he plays in Oklahoma City. Second, I have seen Dillon Simpson play and he looks like many young prospects—great one shift, struggling the next. The idea that Dillon Simpson can be counted out based on a season of AHL games makes no sense to me and suggests we need to talk once again about the reason the AHL exists in the first place.

    There are very few players who get drafted in summer and play in the NHL that same fall. It may seem like a common occurrence because Oilers, but it’s really unusual. The AHL offers men like Dillon Simpson (and Anton Lander) an opportunity to learn the finer points of the game before (hopefully) graduating to an NHL career. Dillon Simpson improved a great deal during his college career and from what we know he’s a smart fellow who is dedicated to making hockey his career.

    I’ve seen Dillon Simpson and despite these experts from Bakersfield am willing to give him the full entry-level deal (and perhaps beyond) to see if he can make it in the NHL. What’s more, the Oilers are too. As for David Musil, he’s a perfect example of a guy who needed (and probably needs more) AHL time to make the leap to the NHL, even for a cup of coffee.

    As fans, we (and I mean all of us) form opinions and—in the need to be correct—perhaps overstate them to the point where it becomes less ‘I’m giving my opinion’ and more ‘here’s why you’re wrong’. Which is fine, but I think we need to remember these are just kids, and despite our being dedicated hockey fans with significant knowledge, we are, in fact, projecting things we cannot possibly know about young men barely 20. In the words of the great Homer Simpson, let’s wait and see how this turns out.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca