GOALIE SUMMER

Frankly, goalies drive me crazy. They’re inconsistent, rarely put back-to-back seasons together that resemble each other and are famously bad drivers. None of that is true (well, they are inconsistent as a group) but it feels true. If I asked you to name the five best goalies in the NHL, what would your answer be? According to straight save percentage (via NHL.com) the list would be Carey Price, Devan Dubnyk, Steve Mason, Cam Talbot and Corey Schneider. Last year’s top 5? Josh Harding, Tuukka Rask, Semyon Varlamov, Carey Price, Anton Khudobin. How about EV save percentage? Pretty much the same, although Pekka Rinne climbs into this year’s top five overall.

Ken Holland of the Detroit Red Wings put it straight years ago: If you’re not paying one of the three or four best in the league (Price, etc), then grab a guy from the enormous pool of goaltenders who are basically the same guy. Pay them well, but not too much, and keep them around until they can’t stop pucks as well as the next guy.

I’m never going to criticize MacT’s hiring of Ben Scrivens and Viktor Fasth because that’s the correct play. He won’t do it, and one can hardly blame him (MacT is on his last legs as a GM imo), but going right back to the same pool and grabbing Martin Jones is a far better move than overpaying for the continued erosion of an increasingly injury prone Craig Anderson. I think Edmonton spends incredible dollars on Antti Niemi this summer and there are worse ideas, one of them being trading qualified youth and picks for 32-year old goalies who can’t stay healthy.

BROSSOIT

I like Laurent Brossoit as an option but only to the point of ‘well, he’s a guy who could help let’s see how things go’ and for me that’s a completely reasonable guy to acquire. Let’s get three more like him, two for the NHL and one more for the AHL, and see how things roll. Let’s stay away from drafting a goaltender in Round 1 (although Vladar sounds promising) and acquire talent through college signings, minor trades that are good bets and waivers. Using first-round picks is for teams who know what the hell they’re looking for and Edmonton isn’t on the list. The one guy they’ve drafted this century with pedigree didn’t work out due to a monstrous two months that does not in any way resemble his career path.

MATT O’CONNOR

We’ll be hearing this young man’s name a lot in the next few weeks, Elliotte Friedman has him visiting the Oilers after the completion of the Frozen Four. The Oilers have a chance, along with Buffalo, Calgary, Vancouver and the Rangers (according to Mr. Friedman). That would certainly qualify as an astute addition, as it costs only money and his resume looks good. Sign O’Connor, bring him to camp with the idea he shares the Bakersfield net with Brossoit next season and let’s see who wins the day.

CURRENT DEPTH CHART

 

  1. G Ben Scrivens
  2. G Viktor Fasth (UFA)
  3. G Richard Bachman (UFA)
  4. G Laurent Brossoit
  5. G Tyler Bunz (RFA)
  6. G Frans Tuohimaa (RFA)

Bachman is probably the most qualified of the free agents but I don’t see any of them coming back. Craig MacTavish is probably going to turn over an enormous portion of the roster at this position. A new No. 1 goalie in Edmonton, a solid backup in the AHL and new blood bubbling under. We could see a fall training camp list that looks like this:

  1. Antti Niemi (free-agent signing)
  2. Ben Scrivens
  3. Laurent Brossoit
  4. Matt O’Connor (college free-agent signing, he would be in competition with Brossoit for AHL No. 1)
  5. Michael McNiven (he should be available in the third round)
  6. Keven Bouchard
  7. Jordan Papirny (drafted)

The club would have to sign someone for the ECHL team but they might be able to bring back Bunz, Tuohimaa or Ty Rimmer as options outside the 50-man list. For me, I’d prefer leaving the early draft picks to other positions and not spending huge dollars on a big name free agent. I don’t think Craig MacTavish has that kind of rope this summer.

LOWETIDE TOP 10, 2015 DRAFT

 

  1. (1)C Connor McDavid, Erie Otters (OHL) 47GP, 44-76-120 (2.55) 5GP, 2-6-8 playoffs
  2. (2)C Jack Eichel, Boston U (NCAA) 38GP, 24-43-67 (1.76)
  3. (3)R Mitch Marner, London Knights (OHL) 63GP, 44-82-126  (2.00) 5GP, 8-5-14 playoffs
  4. (4)C Dylan Strome, Erie Otters (OHL) 68GP, 45-84-129 (1.90) 5GP, 4-3-7 playoffs
  5. (5)D Noah Hanifin, Boston College (NCAA) 37GP, 5-18-23 (.622)
  6. (6) D Ivan Provorov, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL) 60GP, 15-46-61 (1.02) 5GP, 0-3-3 playoffs
  7. (8) R Evgeni Svechnikov, Cape Breton (QMJHL) 55GP, 32-46-78 (1.42) 5GP, 1-4-5 playoffs
  8. (7) D Zach Werenski, Michigan (NCAA) 35GP, 9-16-25 (.714)
  9. (10) C Mathew Barzal, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL) 44GP, 12-45-57 (1.30) 4GP, 3-2-5 playoffs
  10. (9) D Oliver Kylington, Farjestad (SHL). 18GP, 2-3-5 (.278)

If the Oilers decide to use both first-round picks, they could help themselves for a long time. They could add Marner or Strome with the lottery pick and then trade up for one of the falling blue (Kylington or Werenski might make it to No. 15, you never know); they could also draft Hanifin or Provorov and then hope Barzal falls to a point where they could trade up. This is a massive draft. Why settle for one impact prospect when two are within reach?

 

Greg Chase is on fire. I can’t wait to see him at the pro level, and this fall’s training camp should be very interesting. That first Bakersfield team should be fascinating to track, it could include two high picks (Draisaitl, Nurse) along with some impressive young forwards (Yakimov, Pakarinen, Chase, Slepyshev) and defensemen (Laleggia but also the current crop in OKC).

monroe7

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

We hit the ground running after the long weekend, 10 this morning TSN 1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Scott Burnside, ESPN. This is as wide open a Stanley Cup chase as I can recall. Crazy.
  • Jeff Krushell, Krush Sports. Time begins on opening day!
  • Dennis King, Oilogosphere Icon. We’ll talk about the Cali trip and Saturday night.
  • Bob Weeks, SCOREGolf and TSN golf analyst. Masters preview.

10-1260 on text, @Lowetide_ on twitter. Talk soon!

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105 Responses to "GOALIE SUMMER"

  1. Ca$h-Money! says:

    Bakersfield sure will be interesting next year. I’m also very curious to see Platzer. When the pick was made the general consensus was that it was a bad move. Even after posting solid numbers this year a lot of folks are questioning whether he’s even deserving of a contract, and their points aren’t completely devoid of merit.

    With that said I like that he’s getting better, and he’s added size to the point he isn’t small anymore.

    Every year he shows up to training camp, and makes me question my assessment of him. I know, I know, it’s just training camp. But with that in mind, he’s outplayed a lot of prospects during those games whom people tend to rank higher. I’ll be cheering for him to continue that trend next year at the AHL level. He strikes me as an Anton Lander style hard worker, hopefully he makes something of his contract.

  2. wordbird says:

    One thing in Niemi’s favour is he HASN’T been injury-prone (unlike Craig Anderson).

    If Niemi is the new hire, would still like them to add another goalie from the waiting-in-the-wings group, someone like Raanta, Jakob Markstrom, Grubauer (Lehner?), and let that guy and Scrivens duke it out for backup minutes.

  3. djs says:

    Happy Easter Everyone!

    I agree with you LT that betting on Scrivens and Fasth were good bets to make. But I would argue this team, given the last number of years, desperately needs some stability in net…someone with a good track record and (most importantly) someone we KNOW can make a damn save. I think they need a vet. And I think that would go a long way in boosting the confidence of our players…i mean teenagers…i mean kids.

    (Not suggesting it has to be Niemi, but I don’t think Niemi is a bad target, depending on term and dollars).

    Of course fixing the D would probably go further, but beggars can’t be choosers and holy cow am I ever begging

  4. Hammers says:

    LT are you going to do a year end run down on both our present 50 that are signed and tell us who you think will be gone and a list of potential add on players ? My sons and grandsons are so fed up with the Oilers and i’m not sure Katz realizes his potentially loosing a generation of fans . My sons still support them because they saw the 80’s players win but this was there 1st year of not going to 1 game . I didn’t realize that until dinner yesterday and I don’t blame them . Trouble is its not just going but 2 of them don’t even see them on TV after November although they did early in the year .

  5. sliderule says:

    Would Neuvirth be a good choice .

    Save percentage ov .912 over 168 games and a UFA.

    He had one year were he started most games and looks like he shared a lot of games in Buffalo

    The trouble with Scrivens and Fasth is that they had only played 51 games between them and how many of those games were they spotted against a weak team.

    It looks like Neuvirth has a bigger resume and starts against good teams.

  6. GCW_69 says:

    “I’m never going to criticize MacT’s hiring of Ben Scrivens and Viktor Fasth because that’s the correct play. ”

    If you go on the Holland comment, I don’t think he was talking about Scrivens and Fasth. I think he was talking about Halak, Niemi, Steve Mason, Braden Holtby, Jonas Hillers of the world. Guys with track record that are good, but not great, so you don’t have to break the bank signing them or trading for them.

    Neither Scrivens or Fasth had a track record. I think one of Scrivens or Fasth with a more proven but mid-pack starter was the right move last summer, and its probably the right move this summer.

  7. stevezie says:

    I think Detroit and LT are bang on about goaltending. Unless you’re getting one of the top two or three guys you do not want to overpay for it because there is just too much variance in performance. To be sure, you need a guy good enough to take a team into the playoffs and get hot once he is there, but the difference between the seventh best goalie and the fourteenth best doesn’t really matter.

    I am taking this idea from a C&B study a few years ago. The jist of it is you need “hot” goaltending to win in the playoffs, but even most good goalies can’t guarentee heating up at the right time. A “hot” goalie will beat a really good goalie, so there is no sense breaking the bank unless you’re getting a guy who is “hot” almost all this time. The smart play is just get a good goalie and hope. The goal is the cup, right? Who cares whether you finish third or thirteenth in the regular season?

    The exception, obviously, is guys like Kipper who were carrying mediocre teams to the playoffs on the regular. You’re better off building a good team, but not everyone can do that.

    The study is here http://www.coppernblue.com/2013/9/13/4697008/hot-goalies-conference-finals-save-percentage

    Except for 2010-2011, getting to the conference finals and a shot to play for the Stanley Cup is more about riding a hot streak… than it is having a franchise goaltender.

  8. SK Oiler Fan says:

    Great read LT. Difficult to measure the effect of a G that the team has a reasonable level of confidence in. Of course the other side of the equation is the G having faith in the team in front of him to not leave the opposition wide open in the slot or having proper body position to clear rebounds. What a mess.
    I don’t believe many would have predicted Scrivens Fasth to be this bad even in front of the current pairs that start their shift on the blue line.

  9. GCW_69 says:

    stevezie:
    I think Detroit and LT are bang on about goaltending. Unless you’re getting one of the top two or three guys you do not want to overpay for it because there is just too much variance in performance. To be sure, you need a guy good enough to take a team into the playoffs and get hot once he is there, but the difference between the seventh best goalie and the fourteenth best doesn’t really matter.

    I am taking this idea from a C&B study a few years ago. The jist of it is you need “hot” goaltending to win in the playoffs, but even most good goalies can’t guarentee heating up at the right time. A “hot” goalie will beat a really good goalie, so there is no sense breaking the bank unless you’re getting a guy who is “hot” almost all this time. The smart play is just get a good goalie and hope. The goal is the cup, right? Who cares whether you finish third or thirteenth in the regular season?

    The exception, obviously, is guys like Kipper who were carrying mediocre teams to the playoffs on the regular. You’re better off building a good team, but not everyone can do that.

    The study is here http://www.coppernblue.com/2013/9/13/4697008/hot-goalies-conference-finals-save-percentage

    Except for 2010-2011, getting to the conference finals and a shot to play for the Stanley Cup is more about riding a hot streak… than it is having a franchise goaltender.

    What’s your definition of a “good goalie”? I don’t think Scrivens or Fasth met that criteria last summer. They would both be better described as “unproven goalies”.

  10. stevezie says:

    GCW_69,

    I think Scrivens and Fasth had enough of a track record to have thought they could be good in front of a good team. Going cheap on goaltending makes sense if you put the difference into a really a good defense corps.

    Having a bad team changes the conversation. I strongly believe 90% fo teams are better off rolling the dice with goalies than overpaying for what seems like certainty. I hate the Corey Crawford contract, for example.

    The exceptions are the truly elite goalies, and the truly bad teams. If we sign Niemi (or trade for Crawford), I’ll understand.

  11. stevezie says:

    GCW_69,

    I call a “good goalie” anyone good enough to make the playoffs on a decent team, and get hot once he’s there. I don’t have number to go with this.

    I liked Scrivens and Fasth more than you did, but I see your point. They didn’t have a lot of history.

    Maybe there should be two categories on mid-tier goalies. The first tier being like Hiller, Halak, Fleury, Crawford, Osgood- guys who are either firmly good but not spectacular or reliably streaky, but the important thing is they are known commodities. The second tier would be your Scrivens, Dubynk, Jones, Khoubodin, Talbot- fellas who have shown some really nice stuff but not exclusively and only in small samples.

    If you want to pay Halak more than Khoubodin, I have no qualms. As long as we agree that the Canucks would have been better off with Eddie Lack over Ryan Miller (at that money).

  12. Braden88 says:

    I have a questions for the room. Is goaltending really our problem here, or is it simply team defense?

    the revolving door of goaltenders has never really stopped, and neither has the defense. Is it not true that a good defense makes any goaltender better.
    1 Ben Scrivens in LA
    2 Devan Dubnyk in Minnisota
    3 Viktor Fasth in Anaheim
    4 Ilya Bryzgalov in Pheonix

    All examples of Goalies we have seen fail in Edmonton, but who (In recent years) excelled on better defensive teams.

    In my opinion a goalie is a last resort to keeping the puck out of the net on a good team. Good teams all have 1 thing in common. More shots For vs Against. Thats the obvious difference, the team defense difference. The not so obvious is the quality of shots against. Thats where the quality defense kicks in. Goalies perform much better when the high scoring chances almost never happen. Beyond auality of shots, i believe you can also factor in defensive predicatability and trust. Good defensemen slow the game down in their own end and make it essentially boring. And the goalie can play with more confidence when he knows what to expect from his D. There are many factors here where the Oilers have a failing grade

    My point is this. I dont think we should be so concerned with a massive improvement in the goalie department as much as a the defenseive department. I would rather acquire a 1LD and 1RD, instead of a 1RD and 1G. 1 defensemen is not going to solve the problem.

    What do you think the G and D relationship looks like this summer?

  13. Snowman says:

    Ok… I know this is not reasonable and will likely not happen.. but…

    Throw the Niemi money at Dubnyk if he’s available. He’s got a history of good sp% on a bad team. He’s not old. Have MacT publicly praise him all summer long.

    It would be the ultimate vote of confidence for the guy. He might see it that way. He seemed to have left on good terms with the org. I’d be trying very hard to get the big guy back here. Much rather have him than Niemi or Andersen.

    He’s the guy the Oilers should be chasing. I’m certain he’ll want to stick around Minnie but you gotta at least try for him don’t you?

  14. gogliano says:

    This team needs a crazy-eyes Roloson. Someone strange enough that they are capable of retarding Oilers’ grade tire fire.

  15. rich says:

    I do agree with the bet on Scrivens heading into this season given his established track record prior to it. If he could have been given 45-50 games behind a semi-competent defense (with 4 good C’s) he might have had a chance.

    2011-12 (TOR) 12 g’s, .903 Save % and 3.13 GAA
    2012-13 (TOR) 20 g’s. .915 Save % and 2.69 GAA
    2013-14 (LA) 19’s .931 Save % and 1.97 GAA
    2014-14 (EDM) 21 g’s .916 Save % and 3.01 GAA
    2014-15 (EDM) 56 g’s .892 Save % and 3.11 GAA

    The numbers in Toronto stand out because they were respectable playing behind a team that does’n’t resemble the Minnesota Wild.

    This year is awful so you’d think he’ll come back closer to the median (versus the outliers that this season and the first half of 2013-14 in LA were).

    But still, what’s been happening the last 2 seasons in Edmonton is very concerning. Is it all really going to magically improve with Chabot gone? Can better defensemen and having 4 actual C’s the entire season along with a system better fitted to the talent really help?

    And what happens if we still have Schultz, Ference and Nikitin all playing in the top 6 next year? Can we expect the numbers above to improve next year?

    Truly, I don’t think Hasek in his prime can post good numbers with those 3 playing regular shifts next year. Or if we have to rely on the kids Klefbom, Marincin and Nurse to play over their heads next season.

    MacT’s task this summer is not easy and I have concerns that he’s up to it. If we see him sign another 30+ d-man for too much money, along w/a 30+ goalie, we could be in for several more years of bad.

  16. PhrankLee says:

    I think the Oilers are going to need a ‘bubbling under’ type of goalie to move ahead with the cluster.

    I would be disappointed if we signed Niemi. I do not believe in that guy.

    I have a lot of interest in Enroth, Jones and Vasilevskiy.

  17. rich says:

    A PS to my post.

    What I think you can argue was a poor bet going into the season was Fasth given his track record.

    2012-13 ANA 25 g’s, .921 Save % 2.18 GAA
    2013-14 ANA 5 g’s, .888 Save % and 2.95 GAA
    2013-14 EDM 7 g’s .914 Save % and 2.73 GAA

    Plus IIRC some injury concerns.

    Frasth represented a similar risk as Bachman.

    2011-12 DAL 18 g’s .910 Save % and 2.77 GAA
    2012-13 DAL 13 g’s .885 Save % and 3.25 GAA

  18. Bruce McCurdy says:

    stevezie: Maybe there should be two categories on mid-tier goalies. The first tier being like Hiller, Halak, Fleury, Crawford, Osgood- guys who are either firmly good but not spectacular or reliably streaky, but the important thing is they are known commodities. The second tier would be your Scrivens, Dubynk, Jones, Khoubodin, Talbot- fellas who have shown some really nice stuff but not exclusively and only in small samples.

    Scrivens (51) and Fasth (30) had a combined 81 GP of NHL experience at the times of their acquisitions from Los Angeles and Anaheim respectively. For some reason their established performance as 2nd/3rd stringers with powerhouses (the Ducks were the best in the West in the regular season, the Kings won the Cup) didn’t translate to Oil Country.

    Not sure what the answer is, because experienced netminders like Khabibulin, LaBarbera and Bryzgalov didn’t have the magic key either. Dubnyk, the one semi-proven mid-career guy, saw his game go south for two awful months as LT mentioned, though in retrospect his one-way ticket out of town looks to have been a mistake.

    Although he is proven, I’m not sure how much better Antti Niemi would be, given his success has all been behind powerhouses in Chicago and San Jose. Craig Anderson is a better fit in the sense that he has played behind mediocre-to-awful teams and sometimes kept them respectable, but LT is correct about his age and injury history being of major concern. No easy fix here, to say the least. Especially behind This defence.

  19. sliderule says:

    The oilers shots against have gone from 32.8, to 32.9 to 29.9 this season.

    This could mean less defensive zone time.

    If that is happening this would mean more offensive zone time but I am not sure shot metrics(Corsi) supports that.

    The good news would be if better team defence is reducing shots against.

  20. sliderule says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    I wonder as backups how many starts against top teams they had.

    The oilers always seem to get the backup starting against them.

    There should be a quality of competition for goalies.

  21. wordbird says:

    Braden88:
    I have a questions for the room. Is goaltending really our problem here, or is it simply team defense?

    the revolving door of goaltenders has never really stopped, and neither has the defense. Is it not true that a good defense makes any goaltender better.

    My point is this. I dont think we should be so concerned with a massive improvement in the goalie department as much as a the defenseive department. I would rather acquire a 1LD and 1RD, instead of a 1RD and 1G. 1 defensemen is not going to solve the problem.

    What do you think the G and D relationship looks like this summer?

    Bit of a chicken/egg thing, isnt it?

    What’s ultimately (somewhat) encouraging is that there talented defensemen “bubbling under” and soon to arrive – Nurse, Klefbom, etc. Ditto on the forwards front.

    But as for goaltenders, man the Oilers need to stock the cupboard.
    We’ve heard that the Oilers had been in the conversation when it comes to bringing in the likes of Raanta or Markstrom, but are they doing enough?

    Other orgs seem to have a real knack of finding goaltending talent.
    Since 2000, the Oilers have graduated… 2 of their goalie picks to the show (Dubnyk and Deslauriers)? Any other picks even come close? (and no, Mike Morrison and Joaquin Gage don’t count). OK, technically Jussi Markkanen too (reacquired from NYR).

    Landing a Matt O’Connor in the next month would help, but really, they need more.
    Draft a couple this year. Sniffing around other NHL teams for a waiting-in-the-wings guy that might fall thru the cracks. When do we finally see the Oilers unearth some mysterious Finn or Swede ‘tender who takes the league by storm?

  22. G Money says:

    One of the reasons goalies are voodoo is the extremely narrow difference between poor, average, and high quality goalies in the long run.

    Assuming a backup = .905, a mid pack = .915, and high quality = .925, that’s ONE goal per 100 shots difference between back and mid pack, and ONE goal per 100 shots between mid pack and high quality.

    Assuming 30 shots per game on average, it takes a huge number of games to reliably distinguish between those tracks. At those distinction levels, an entire goalie career is still a small sample!

    Or to put it in thought experiment terms, if you had three coins, one of which was fair, one of which was biased heads 51%, and one was biased tails 51%, how many coinflips before you could confidently say which was which?

    Answer: somewhere in the thousands to tens of thousands or more.

    Coins are voodoo.

  23. Woodguy says:

    Braden88:
    I have a questions for the room. Is goaltending really our problem here, or is it simply team defense?

    the revolving door of goaltenders has never really stopped, and neither has the defense. Is it not true that a good defense makes any goaltender better.
    1 Ben Scrivens in LA
    2 Devan Dubnyk in Minnisota
    3 Viktor Fasth in Anaheim
    4 Ilya Bryzgalov in Pheonix

    All examples of Goalies we have seen fail in Edmonton, but who (In recent years) excelled on better defensive teams.

    In my opinion a goalie is a last resort to keeping the puck out of the net on a good team. Good teams all have 1 thing in common. More shots For vs Against. Thats the obvious difference, the team defense difference. The not so obvious is the quality of shots against. Thats where the quality defense kicks in. Goalies perform much better when the high scoring chances almost never happen. Beyond auality of shots, i believe you can also factor in defensive predicatability and trust. Good defensemen slow the game down in their own end and make it essentially boring. And the goalie can play with more confidence when he knows what to expect from his D. There are many factors here where the Oilers have a failing grade

    My point is this. I dont think we should be so concerned with a massive improvement in the goalie department as much as a the defenseive department. I would rather acquire a 1LD and 1RD, instead of a 1RD and 1G. 1 defensemen is not going to solve the problem.

    What do you think the G and D relationship looks like this summer?

    Bryz didn’t fail.

    Doobie put up. 915 is front of 30th place teams.

    Scrivens was good for the remainder of the 13/14 season after he was traded here.

    FRJOHNK has done lots of work on this and shot volumes, shot location etc.

    It’s the goalies.

  24. G Money says:

    Braden88: My point is this. I dont think we should be so concerned with a massive improvement in the goalie department as much as a the defenseive department. I would rather acquire a 1LD and 1RD, instead of a 1RD and 1G. 1 defensemen is not going to solve the problem.

    There has been work to try and adapt goalie save percentages in the context of the quality of shots given up. Our own Father John has done some excellent work in that regard.

    One thing that rings clear as a bell in all of these analyses: regardless of the tire fire of the defense, the Oiler goalkeeping has been off the charts terrible. Astonishingly bad. In the running for worst ever.

    You can easily confirm this by looking at COL and BUF, two defenses which by every measure are worse to far worse than EDM. BUF has gotten 190 basis points (.888 to .907) better goaltending, and COL has gotten fully 280 basis points (.888 to .916) better goaltending.

    There are other examples like TOR, ARI, and arguably MTL.

    The Oiler defense may be a tire fire, but its not the biggest tire fire in the league, by quite a wide margin. In comparison, the goaltending has been a tire fire on the deck of the Titanic in a hurricane.

  25. rickithebear says:

    rich: The numbers in Toronto stand out because they were respectable playing behind a team that does’n’t resemble the Minnesota Wild

    good goalies with bad D.
    Neuvirth
    Reimer

    sliderule: The oilers shots against have gone from 32.8, to 32.9 to 29.9 this season.<

    need the available goalie with the best save% with high 26-35 shots/gm range.
    Neuvirth
    Reimer

    Braden88: In my opinion a goalie is a last resort to keeping the puck out of the net on a good team.

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/price-vs-dubnyk-nhl-gms-overvalue-goalies/

    now the shots that hit the goalie in this tough area are not saved.

    need to eliminate these to get the true tough measure.

    Neuvirth and Reimer please!

  26. DocFan says:

    I obsess over goalies. I agree there is no easy answer here.
    I think the safe bet is don’t break the bank on a Neimi or Anderson. Realistically this isn’t a playoff / Stanley contending team next year, so why burden the position with a dead weight contract for either an aging player (Anderson / Neimi) or a terrible contract (Howard / Crawford). Best bet is to TRY and identify the next Ben Bishop or Braden Holtby (Jones, Talbot, Neuvirth etc), run a 1A / 1B with Scrivens and hope he regresses to the mean.

    Then reassess the whole thing in 2 yrs.
    This all on the premise of fixing the defence first.

  27. rickithebear says:

    G Money: There has been work to try and adapt goalie save percentages in the context of the quality of shots given up.Our own Father John has done some excellent work in that regard.

    One thing that rings clear as a bell in all of these analyses: regardless of the tire fire of the defense, the Oiler goalkeeping has been off the charts terrible.Astonishingly bad.In the running for worst ever.

    You can easily confirm this by looking at COL and BUF, two defenses which by every measure are worse to far worse than EDM.BUF has gotten 190 basis points (.888 to .907) better goaltending, and COL has gotten fully 280 basis points (.888 to .916) better goaltending.

    There are other examples like TOR, ARI, and arguably MTL.

    The Oiler defense may be a tire fire, but its not the biggest tire fire in the league, by quite a wide margin.In comparison, the goaltending has been a tire fire on the deck of the Titanic in a hurricane.

    great work guys!
    your ideas!
    oh! ugh Nevermind!
    Your work using lange and ……….

    Getting closer!

    Christl

    Braden and Rich Have great original thought!

    Keep doing the work!
    😉

    my love of triachic intelligence.

    really is forgotten here.

    The idea with data is one side of the triangle.

    side 2: Action applied to the play is game play advancement.

    Side 3: coching and player do.

  28. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    On this question of defense (and as a corollary, defensive systems), the work of the Father on shot distance is fantastic.

    It adds to work already done in this area.

    http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/7/17/goaltenders-with-and-without-ken-hitchcock

    http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/8/11/the-dave-tippett-effect

    http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2013/7/16/4529962/nhl-save-percentage-tippett-hitchcock-goaltenders-statistical-team-effects-ondrej-pavelec

    The meat of the debate is that while it is always tempting to lean into the rationalization that “defense” has a big impact on goaltending (and, this really is a well worn, not at all novel, canard)…

    There is simply no evidence out there to excuse a goaler his save percentage.

    Simple truths borne by the best evidence we currently have:

    1. Defense impact shot volume (Corsi)

    2. Goalers impact save percentage

  29. GCW_69 says:

    PhrankLee:
    I think the Oilers are going to need a ‘bubbling under’ type of goalie to move ahead with the cluster.

    I would be disappointed if we signed Niemi. I do not believe in that guy.

    I have a lot of interest in Enroth, Jones and Vasilevskiy.

    I would pay a kings ransom for Vasilevskiy. I think he will be one of those elite goaltenders.

  30. G Money says:

    GCW_69: I would pay a kings ransom for Vasilevskiy.I think he will be one of those elite goaltenders.

    Why?

    Note – not asking this as a challenge. I really want to know why you feel he’ll be an elite goaltender.

  31. kinger_OIL says:

    I think DocFan has the right approach: what is the short and mid-term acheivable goals of this team? Clearly the long-term objective (LTO)should be “the development of an organization than can contend and win multiple Stanley Cups over a number of years”. No set of changes this off-season is going to “arrive” the OIL to the LTO next year. Keeping in mind the LTO, what makes sense this off-season? Building a playoff team for next year isn’t realistic, and I’d argue that if one could, it would be at the expense of the LTO, given our roster. $6MM goalies this summer aren’t the answer.

    Then again MacT hasn’t really presented a plan to his shareholders, and he is all over the map in trying to build to the LTO.

    That’s the problem I have with all the fantasy trade talks, or being 4 players away: what is the objective? Playoffs aren’t realistic next year, so don’t build rosters thinking you are going to do so.

  32. wordbird says:

    GCW_69,

    take a run at Raanta or Talbot or Markstrom, etc., would likely cost a lot less.

  33. GCW_69 says:

    G-Money:
    The pace at which he has adapted to higher levels of competition since his very strong junior career:

    Season Team Lge Pct
    2012-13 Ufa Salavat Yulayev KHL 0.924
    2013-14 Ufa Salavat Yulayev KHL 0.923
    2014-15 Syracuse Crunch AHL 0.917
    2014-15 Tampa Bay Lightning NHL 0.918

    He is outperforming Ben Bishop and his AHL save percentage this year is substancially higher than either of the other tenders that the Crunch has played.

    Add in his KHL career (summary below) and you are talking about a potential elite goaltender with as strong a track record as we have seen in 10 years.

    “Vasya has spent five years marinating in Salavat Ufa’s system, and after years of dominating the MHL (the KHL’s top feeder league) and international (WJC and U-18, U-20) competition, he finally earned a permanent role in the KHL in 2013-14, appearing in 28 regular season games for Salavat Ufa, claiming the starting job with a strong .923 save percentage. By the time the playoffs had rolled around in the spring, he had already won the KHL’s rookie of the month award four (!!!) times, in September, November, March and April, and started 18 games for Ufa in the KHL Gagarin Cup playoffs, with an outstanding .934 save percentage.” Source: Raw Charge

  34. Unicorns says:

    It seems to be a question of fundamental flaws. The Oilers don’t win bets because of this.

    Ference was already declining from a place of being an average decent undersized defender in his prime. The Oilers gave him mean local boy Cup winner extra points and overlooked everything else. The flaws remain, there was/is no upside on the ice.

    This is different than when Souray came because Souray had weaknesses as most players do, his being speed and injuries amongst others, but he was a stable player and had positive attributes like being stable, big and tough and the shot.

    I no expert but Scrivens at least seems to have big issues with fundamentals. He has the athleticism and reflexes but hasn’t seemed to refine his game- ie the polar bear. That is almost certainly why he hasn’t found his spot with other orgs. Maybe coaching could help him but I am not convinced the Oilers have a goalie whisperer. Where’s that Korn guy at these days?

    So when looking at another goalie that should be the criteria. The Oilers need a stable experienced goalie. Even a steady .910 would be better than three gimmes each game and .940 to close it out. This young team needs stability to grow around and refine team play.

    They also need to retain cap so a proper term and salary are key, and given the market that is doable.

    I think this thinking should be the bottom line in each hole. The chances of a big win in free agency or a trade are low, although not impossible. They should be looking for decent, reliable players that can succeed in the position available (not asked to do something different than what they are good at) to provide stability to allow the team to develop a system and an identity. And to build confidence in themselves and what they are doing.

    They need some Pouliots and Gordons on D to help the youth and carry the load, the straight man for the funny guy, and one goal to calm the lads down especially Scrivens. fayne might be that for one rookie LD. The rest will follow from there.

  35. GCW_69 says:

    wordbird:
    GCW_69,

    take a run at Raanta or Talbot or Markstrom, etc., would likely cost a lot less.

    None of which have the potential of Vasilevskiy . I wouldn’t pay near the same for a Lehner, or any of those guys because they fit into the Holland middle tier model if you are lucky.

    An elite goaltender can cover up a myriad of roster sins (Price proves this every game he plays) and so if you find a kid with Vasilevskiy’s track record and you might be able to get him, you should take the shot.

  36. fifthcartel says:

    I think it’s going to be Martin Jones. There’s too much fire about the Oilers offering their other first round pick for him, which I think is too much to pay, but I think they want a younger goalie.

  37. vesci says:

    stevezie,
    Ii like your idea of two tiers of good goalies. Namely proven ( with a track record) and ones with potential.

    On this note I agree that the Canucks overpaid Miller but he was provenwhile Lack was in my opinion more in the “potential” camp.

    This is what the Flames did too when they signed Hiller as a proven and had Ramo as a potential.

    I think this is a good blueprint as long as you don’t overpay for the proven.

  38. Heinz 57 says:

    Willis is making interesting use of the word “protection” in his post on Cult today. Protection against what, exactly? A sliver of jackpot upside (at about 2000:1 for McDavid to the Oilers through the back door, it’s running slightly ahead of the not-much ballyhooed Jultz Norris) originally transacted on rational expectation becoming transformed—how exactly?—into a dimwit gambler’s post-hoc cringefest over a silver-lined tragic destiny imprudently frittered.

    And to think this entire line of thought is built into the human firmware and protected by a heaven-sent, UEFI boot loader. It just has to be embedded into the human cognitive firmware, because the entire premise shrieks “does not compute” six times over (in a tiny piece of the right-mined cerebral cortex subsisting mainly on juniper berries), and few among us cultivate the logical chops to stack six rough-hewn stones of “does not compute” into a sturdy Easter Island lean-to for the ages.

    Whatever “protection” Willis has in mind here, it’s something entirely Freudian.

  39. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Going into the season with Scrivens and Fasth…given their very limited body of work…was like going all in before the flop while holding a pair of 8’s.

    Jim Benning faced the same situation in Vancouver with Lack and Markstrom and opted to sign Ryna Miller to stabilize things while the other 2 got more experience.

    While Miller has been somewhat pedestrian (.913) he’s been good enough to hold the fort while Lack and Markstrom get their legs under them.

    While, at this stage in the Infinibuild ® I wouldn’t suggest the Oilers acquire someone on a contract like Miller’s, I think they do have to find an acquire a solid veteran to calm the waters AND find the next one through the draft, free agent signing or trade.

    It’s a big job.

  40. Eh Team says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Scrivens (51) and Fasth (30) had a combined 81 GP of NHL experience at the times of their acquisitions from Los Angeles and Anaheim respectively

    A lot of the problem here isn’t that Scrivens and Fasth couldn’t be viable NHL goalies, but that there was no third (at least equal) option. If they weren’t going to ever try Bachman, then they needed another fall-back option.
    Either or both of Scrivens or Fasth should have been put on waivers and sent to OKC during the year. It’s not like either would have been picked up.
    We can’t go into next year and even gift Scrivens the back-up position, He has to earn it on performance. if any of our goalies delievers back-up AHL performance they can’t be playing at the NHL level.
    Just fixing the goaltending and subbing in NHL average performance is a 50 goal swing.

  41. bendelson says:

    I keep reading the O’Connor has Ottawa on this short list as well (though if Elliotte isn’t reporting it, I wonder…). If Ottawa WAS to sign him, it very likely makes Lehner available to the highest bidder this summer. Does he land in the Stevzie’s “good’ category of young goalies? If so, what is Lehner really worth?

    Options: Marincin, Pitt’s 1st, Oiler’s 2nd, Habs 2nd?

    I offer the OIler’s 2nd and see where that goes… though I would guess it doesn’t go far enough.

    Follow-up question: Does the offer get better if it’s Martin Jones coming to Edmonton? LT suggested the Pitt 1st could be in play… does anyone here make that deal?

  42. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    Dashingsilverfox:
    Going into the season with Scrivens and Fasth…given their very limited body of work…was like going all in before the flop while holding a pair of 8’s.

    Jim Benning faced the same situation in Vancouver with Lack and Markstrom and opted to sign Ryna Miller to stabilize things while the other 2 got more experience.

    While Miller has been somewhat pedestrian (.913) he’s been good enough to hold the fort while Lack and Markstrom get their legs under them.

    While, at this stage in the Infinibuild ® I wouldn’t suggest the Oilers acquire someone on a contract like Miller’s, I think they do have to find an acquire a solid veteran to calm the waters AND find the next one through the draft, free agent signing or trade.

    It’s a big job.

    I agree. 3 year deal with a vet to calm the waters. Let Brossoit and hopefully O’Connor duke it out for starting role in Bakersfield

    Bid adieu to Scrivens next year. Call up one of the AHL kids as backup.

    Year 3 increase the load on the front-runner between O’Connor and Brossoit and reduce the time of the free agent veteran.

    Year 4: Brossoit/O’Connor tandem

    I’d rather not give up a king’s ransom at this stage unless management is 100 percent sure it will work out. I don’t trust current management to make that kind of decision.

    Niemi is the lesser of two evils and there are only one or two teams looking for a number one goalie this summer. I hope it won’t require much more than 3 x 4M to get him

  43. bendelson says:

    Dashingsilverfox: While, at this stage in the Infinibuild ® I wouldn’t suggest the Oilers acquire someone on a contract like Miller’s, I think they do have to find an acquire a solid veteran to calm the waters AND find the next one through the draft, free agent signing or trade.

    That sounds like Cam Ward plus a Lehner or Jones…
    Fair?

  44. pocession charge says:

    Dashingsilverfox:

    While, at this stage in the Infinibuild ® I wouldn’t suggest the Oilers acquire someone on a contract like Miller’s, I think they do have to find an acquire a solid veteran to calm the waters AND find the next one through the draft, free agent signing or trade.

    It’s a big job.

    #craigsonit

  45. grim.oil says:

    G Money, no offense but do you seriously believe the Oilers have better D than Buffalo and Colorado? Would you rather Myers/Bogosian and high prospects, Johnson and Barrie or Klefbom and Schultz. I really like Klefbom but there is no way he is better than Bogosian or Johnson. And there is no way Edmonton has better defense than anyone in the league. I agree goalies need an improvement but signing Niemi or ‘insert veteran here’ is not the answer and there is no way we will be able to tell what a Jones or ‘insert bubble goalie here’ until we have solid D in front of them. Oilers need 2 of Bfulygien, Seabrook, etc. Without that we aint going nowhere. Remember 06′ when goaltending was a problem and Roloson had not proved he was a ‘Price’. People were not sure of him but he had Pronger. You here it all the time “defense wins championships”. Forget the goalie situation for right now. Sign 2 veteran D. Then worry about who will be your next G. If they can they should go for Niemi and Vasilevsky or whatever veteran/bubble combo you like and ditch Scrivens and Fasth. There is no reason to keep 2 failed goalie attempts.

  46. TheOtherJohn says:

    Woodguy: Bryz didn’t fail.Doobie put up. 915 is front of 30th place teams.Scrivens was good for the remainder of the 13/14 season after he was traded here.FRJOHNK has done lots of work on this and shot volumes, shot location etc.It’s the goalies.

    Scrivens was NOT good for the remainder of last season. His sv% in March, over 10 gp, was .904. His sv% in Apri,l with 4 gp, was .903.Post all start game it was .902

    There was some evidencefrom last year (the last 35% of his season) that Scrivens might not be capable of being a #1 NHL starter. That information was ignored. Hhad it beeen identified last year we may have had a 3rd option oavailable ver and above Scrivens and Fasth. We did not and by the end of November our season was over

  47. Braden88 says:

    Woodguy: Bryz didn’t fail.

    Doobie put up. 915 is front of 30th place teams.

    Scrivens was good for the remainder of the 13/14 season after he was traded here.

    FRJOHNK has done lots of work on this and shot volumes, shot location etc.

    It’s the goalies.

    G Money:
    One thing that rings clear as a bell in all of these analyses: regardless of the tire fire of the defense, the Oiler goalkeeping has been off the charts terrible.Astonishingly bad.In the running for worst ever.

    The Oiler defense may be a tire fire, but its not the biggest tire fire in the league, by quite a wide margin.In comparison, the goaltending has been a tire fire on the deck of the Titanic in a hurricane.

    My aim here is to pinpoint where the team is failing in supporting its goaltenders. I claim these goalies as failures not simply on their performance but also on the fact that if they were successes, they would either still be here, or we would not be looking for a solution

    I dont mean to claim that the goalies are not the problem, but i think the team itself is the larger portion of the problem. If not then how have all these goalies simply gotten worse OR left the team. If a goalie was ligitimately good then he would be the #1 with a fat contract. Agree?

    it would be foolish to be simply chasing a better goalie without understanding why goalies generally play worse for our team. a few reason can easily be considered such as (bad age, bad selection, bad bet, bad circumstances).

    We are beginning to understand the correlation between defense and goalies and i think the impact is much greater than we think. As people we need to be humble enough to understand that stats are a great resource and part of the answer, but not the answer itself. Furthermore, our understanding of stats is constantly adapting, changing, and growing. yet in any given moment we believe the answer is here and now, acceptable with the info we have and our perception of it.

    the best goalies in the league were not simply touched by god and given the blessing of puck stopping. Amazing goalies were good goalies, were average goalies, and as children were not goalies at all. Its not just the goalies responsibility to be good, its the team too. If we want to build a great goalies we need to create an atmosphere of success. I dont see how that is possible currently with our defense.

  48. bendelson says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”,

    Curious NYCoil…

    Did that American West road trip you talk about on GTB happen yet? Still in the planning stage?

    I made a similar type photography road trip in the past that included Zion, Bryce, Snow Canyon (a very cool state park in Utah) and over to Yosemite via the Extraterrestrial Highway across Nevada (that was simply happened upon…).

    Great trip. Good times.

  49. Braden88 says:

    grim.oil:
    G Money, no offense but do you seriously believe the Oilers have better D than Buffalo and Colorado? Would you rather Myers/Bogosian and high prospects, Johnson and Barrie or Klefbom and Schultz. I really like Klefbom but there is no way he is better than Bogosian or Johnson. And there is no way Edmonton has better defense than anyone in the league. I agree goalies need an improvement but signing Niemi or ‘insert veteran here’ is not the answer and there is no way we will be able to tell what a Jones or ‘insert bubble goalie here’ until we have solid D in front of them. Oilers need 2 of Bfulygien, Seabrook, etc. Without that we aint going nowhere. Remember 06′ when goaltending was a problem and Roloson had not proved he was a ‘Price’. People were not sure of him but he had Pronger. You here it all the time “defense wins championships”. Forget the goalie situation for right now. Sign 2 veteran D. Then worry about who will be your next G. If they can they should go for Niemi and Vasilevsky or whatever veteran/bubble combo you like and ditch Scrivens and Fasth. There is no reason to keep 2 failed goalie attempts.

    I am glad someone agree’s with me.

    Heres my Off season priority list
    1. 1 RD
    2. 1 LD

    (if Roy is 2C)
    3. 1G
    4. Top 9 C
    5. Top 9 W

    (If not Roy)
    3. 2C
    4. 1G
    5. top 9 W

  50. G Money says:

    grim.oil: G Money, no offense but do you seriously believe the Oilers have better D than Buffalo and Colorado?

    Yes.

    By eye – vastly better. There is no D worse than Buffalo that I have ever seen in watching the NHL for 25 years. They are generationally bad. COL is not far behind.

    By stat – pick your poison.

    Corsi against?

    67.5, 61.9, 55.9. That’s CA/60 for BUF, COL, EDM. It’s not even close.

    Don’t believe in the fancy stats and want to stick to traditional shots against?

    34.8, 32.4, 29.4. That’s SA/60 for BUF, COL, EDM. Again, not even close.

    Oh but wait, it’s shot quality that matters, and maybe COL and BUF give up less dangerous chances!

    33.5, 30.6, 28.5. That’s SCA/60 for BUF, COL, EDM. Those are war-on-ice scoring chance measures, which use shot location and time components (rebounds and rushes) to determine what is and isn’t a scoring chance, and that is almost certainly as sophisticated a measure as exists right now. To put that in perspective, the difference between EDM and BUF (+5) is just barely off the difference between EDM and the best in the league (+6).

    It’s not even close.

  51. G Money says:

    Braden88: I dont mean to claim that the goalies are not the problem, but i think the team itself is the larger portion of the problem.

    You can assert anything you want. Unless you can bring some facts to back up your assertion, it’s just an unsupported opinion.

    The data outright contradicts you.

    The biggest problem with this team – by far – is the goaltending.

  52. stevezie says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Going into the season with Scrivens and Fasth…given their very limited body of work…was like going all in before the flop while holding a pair of 8’s.

    Sort of. The difference is the Oilers were playing two hands.

    I think the thing to remember about the Scrivens/Fasth combo was the hope was that one of these two guys would be good enough. I agree that neither had the track record to justify much faith, but taken together I think there was a decent chance one of them would be at least competent.

    I would repeat the bet. If we replace Fasth with Jones, Talbot, Neuvirth… the unproven goalie of your choice we will be able to take the money we don’t spend on Niemi and put it into the D or a vetern C, and hopefully either the new guy will be real or Scribbles will get his groove back.

    The mistake the Oilers made wasn’t betting that one of two mid-percentage bets would pay off- that combos to a a good percentage bet, right? It was they turned the savings into Nitkinin and… nothing. An extended Draisatl audition. You need to parlay the savings into something concrete; it can’t just be risks and gambles all over the board.

    I think the smart play for the Canucks was to see that there was a really good chance Lack would be just as good as Miller and a lot cheaper, so go with him and spend a few extra million somewhere else. Effeciency matters. On the other hand, DSF is right that the Canuck’s plan hasn’t exactly backfired. There are definite benefits to known assets.

    I think goalies are a gamble at the best of times and would rather see the money spent on D or a Roy upgrade, but if the OIlers (and fans) choose to go get Niemi, or Crawford or one of the like I will understand. Once bitten, etc etc.

    Just not Cam Ward. I don’t think he has the chops.

  53. HeavySig says:

    Proving absolutely nothing, this NHL back-up was aquired from a team that had missed the playoffs.

    NHL years/Games/Save %

    1st – 5 – 0.902 (half the games if you count minutes played)
    2nd – 20 – 0.915
    3rd – 22 – 0.879

    Not exactly mind-blowing numbers, but he did post 0.924 – 0.926 AHL numbers. Followed by a bunch of not bad years for the Flames. *spits* *Kiprusoff*

  54. PhrankLee says:

    GCW_69,

    He really does fit the bill for me as well. But according to most accounts he is 4-5 yrs away from reliable starting goalie ages.

    Nonetheless, I would take a risk and traded for him.

  55. stevezie says:

    Braden88,

    You’re only looking at the top end. I agree Tyson Barrie would be better than our best right now, but he can’t play the whole game. Ference would dramatically improve either Colorado or Buffalo.

    G Money: The biggest problem with this team – by far – is the goaltending.

    I agree, but that is only half the problem; the damning thing is there is no “yes but”. Philedelphia cheaped out on goaltending but they had the legion of doom and made the final. Years later they did it again because they had Pronger, Richards and Carter.

    Where are our savings going?

  56. Showerhead says:

    G Money: Yes.

    By eye – vastly better.There is no D worse than Buffalo that I have ever seen in watching the NHL for 25 years.They are generationally bad.COL is not far behind.

    By stat – pick your poison.

    Corsi against?

    67.5, 61.9, 55.9.That’s CA/60 for BUF, COL, EDM.It’s not even close.

    Don’t believe in the fancy stats and want to stick to traditional shots against?

    34.8, 32.4, 29.4.That’s SA/60 for BUF, COL, EDM.Again, not even close.

    Oh but wait, it’s shot quality that matters, and maybe COL and BUF give up less dangerous chances!

    33.5, 30.6, 28.5.That’s SCA/60 for BUF, COL, EDM.Those are war-on-ice scoring chance measures, which use shot location and time components (rebounds and rushes) to determine what is and isn’t a scoring chance, and that is almost certainly as sophisticated a measure as exists right now.To put that in perspective, the difference between EDM and BUF (+5) is just barely off the difference between EDM and the best in the league (+6).

    It’s not even close.

    What GMoney said.

    Important: when considering team defense in this way, it’s not enough to look at the 6 d-men on each team and decide who you think is better. One of the major reasons a team like Buffalo’s team defense is so terrible is that they can’t keep the puck in the O-zone either. Which means more time spent with the puck heading back at Buffalo’s goalkeeper.

    In short: for our purposes, defense is very much a team thing.

  57. G Money says:

    stevezie: I agree, but that is only half the problem; the damning thing is there is no “yes but”.

    Sad but true.

  58. Evilas says:

    Vasilevsky, Talbot, Jones…..why would TB, NYR or LA do this? Bishop has had injury troubles, Lundquist has been ridden hard and is getting to an age where he will start to break down and Quick has been uneven and has had injury issues the last couple of years. All these guys are on value contracts and are highly unlikely to be moved and I would question whether they are actual proven NHL starters (would YOU be comfortable with one of these guys and Scrivens as their back-up), and therefore if you were MacT, who is on the precipice regarding his employment, would you give up a 2nd round pick for an uncertain commodity? I wouldn’t…..

    IMO I would target Neuvirth, good age, no injury history, good record with crap D in front of him and he wouldn’t cost more than $3mil/yr.

  59. PhrankLee says:

    G Money,

    I look at goalies for size first and he fits for me. He is tall but not Bishop tall so tends to give up less athleticism.

    I also look for .915 or better and anything under 2.75 GAA. Over at least 30 games. His KHL career was very very good. KHL goalies are shot stoppers. There are less garbage goals and more sniping in that league.

    He is a universally respected prospect.

    I know you never asked me but that’s why in my case.

  60. G Money says:

    I actually think this whole “the defense makes the goaltending look bad” is completely bass ackwards.

    Notwithstanding all the work (see Rom’s post above) that provides strong evidence that goalies are the biggest determinants of sv% (not defenders), watching the game suggests exactly the opposite: that goalies can make the defense look better or worse.

    If you are old enough (but not too old that you’ve forgotten heh heh), cast your mind back to the days of Cujo and [Essensa and co.].

    I used to marvel at how much more composed the Oilers looked when playing in front of Cujo.

    They had confidence that he’d make every easy save and a bunch of impossible ones too, and that a mistake wouldn’t immediately end up in the back of the net. It showed.

    When they played in front of Bobby E (who wasn’t that bad actually, but he was no Cujo), you could see the jitters immediately. Lack of confidence in the goalie means a defense lacking in confidence.

    Just a guess, but if we put Carey Price or Semyon Varlamov back in the Oiler net, we’d marvel at how much the defense had suddenly “visually” improved.

  61. russ99 says:

    There’s another saying about goalies: you either have “The Guy” or you’re looking for the next “The Guy”.

    This is our failure, being in-between those two states since Roloson was traded.

    And frankly how much being in-between is tanking for picks the last 6-7 years? Had we gotten a solid #1 keeper 3-4 years ago when it was obvious to everyone that neither Dubnyk or Deslaurier was going to be “The Guy” the rebuild could have been much different, and there would have been reasons to have urgency about competing much sooner than what’s devolved down to the new arena.

  62. G Money says:

    PhrankLee,

    Sounds good. Up until GCW mentioned him, he hadn’t really shown up on my radar.

    I am now officially on Team Neuvirth (thanks to FrJohnK) and from you and GCW, Team Vasilevskiy!

  63. blainer says:

    Here is the conversation I would like to hear from O’Connor’s Agent.

    Agent to MacT.. Matt has asked me confirm one of your Quotes he has heard before making a decision on the oilers..

    MacT to Agent.. No problem what was the quote.

    Agent… He has heard that you will be going forward next year with Nikitin Ference and Shultz on D.. Is this correct ?

    MacT.. Yes that is correct.

    Agent.. Matt wanted me to inform you that if that was the planned D for next year that he will take a pass on your offer and wishes you all the best…

  64. G Money says:

    G Money: 34.8, 32.4, 29.4. That’s SA/60 for BUF, COL, EDM. Again, not even close.

    You know, in looking at these numbers, I marvel at just how incredibly bad BUF really is.

    To put those numbers in perspective, if BUF improved by 5 shots per 60 minutes, they STILL wouldn’t be on par with the Oilers.

    If the Oilers improved by 5 shots per 60 minutes, they would be MORE than 2 shots per 60 better than the best in the league.

    And the Sabres play in the East.

  65. wordbird says:

    GCW_69: None of which have the potential of Vasilevskiy .I wouldn’t pay near the same for a Lehner, or any of those guys because they fit into the Holland middle tier model if you are lucky.

    An elite goaltender can cover up a myriad of roster sins (Price proves this every game he plays) and so if you find a kid with Vasilevskiy’s track record and you might be able to get him, you should take the shot.

    No doubting he’s the best goalie prospect out there.
    Hockeysfuture has him #1 (8.5/10), then a few others just below him (8.0): Saros (NAS), Binnington (STL), Nedeljkovic (CAR), Vanecek (WSH), Gibson (ANA), Demko (VAN), Subban (BOS) and Mrazek (DET).
    Not sure why TB would move him though. the price would be very steep.
    Still would rather see Oilers draft their own “can’t miss” goalie prospect, and bring in a guy a little further along (aforementioned Talbot, Raanta, etc.) to bridge the gap…

  66. PhrankLee says:

    G Money: I actually think this whole “the defense makes the goaltending look bad” is completely bass ackwards.

    Im with you on this. Good goalies make middling D better. Poor goalies expose middling D like a sore thumb.

    It effects things like pinching and risk taking. Gap control and standing up the puck carrier are also influenced by the goalie.

  67. Braden88 says:

    G Money: You can assert anything you want.Unless you can bring some facts to back up your assertion, it’s just an unsupported opinion.

    The data outright contradicts you.

    The biggest problem with this team – by far – is the goaltending.

    Your right, i can assert anything i want. but i choose to do it in a manner respectfull of others. And yes, it is an unsupported claim. I dont remember signing a ‘statistical analysis” waver when i registered to Lowetide’s website.

    I cannot say that i believe your statement, that the data outright contradicts me, because quit frankly i didn’t go to each individual article and website to confirm your statements. I simply have an opinion that i felt worth mentioning. I didn’t anticipate the loudest voice on the “Playground” to beat up on me with stats, as opposed to simply offering them in a construction format.

    I believe stats today are fantastic, and i an continually fasinated by them. But i still believe that you can show the world an amazing piece of art and it will be interpreted differently by everyone who looks at it.

    In the end G Money, i appreciate your opinion!

  68. G Money says:

    Braden88: In the end G Money, i appreciate your opinion!

    And I yours. Please don’t mistake brevity for insult!

    I don’t provide the stats to ‘beat up’ on anyone. They are the evidence that helps shape my conclusions.

    You are always free to draw your own opinion, of course you are, but if objective data contradict that opinion (especially with the certitude as it does in this case), in this particular forum you will get called on it. (By other loud playground voices, if not mine!)

  69. wordbird says:

    russ99:
    There’s another saying about goalies: you either have “The Guy” or you’re looking for the next “The Guy”.

    This is our failure, being in-between those two states since Roloson was traded.

    And frankly how much being in-between is tanking for picks the last 6-7 years? Had we gotten a solid #1 keeper 3-4 years ago when it was obvious to everyone that neither Dubnyk or Deslaurier was going to be “The Guy” the rebuild could have been much different, and there would have been reasons to have urgency about competing much sooner than what’s devolved down to the new arena.

    THIIIIIIISSSSSSS!
    pretty much the case with ALL the players/prospects Oilers Mgmt. has been overly bullish on.

  70. PhrankLee says:

    G Money,

    Yeah. Well unless you’re RTB!

    Staccato responses with egomania riddled ravings about your reading comprehension while still in the womb don’t even get an eyelash batted here!

    Spelling is only optional if you are at least 2.67 lb/in and Mensa have been parked outside your house begging you to join for at least a decade.

    Lol. I love RTB.

  71. Evilas says:

    Further to the Goaltending issue though is the quality of defenders and that includes the C depth; we know this to be a HUGE issue for the team. Poor Boyd Gordon, he is ridden way too hard, how many games will he play next year? This team needs better D-men and better C’s to support the Dmen and the ‘tenders. And better C’s to support the C’s like Gordon. If by chance Edmonton makes the dance, then you want your best players as uninjured and unworn out as possible. This roster isn’t set up for that outcome.

    As I have posted on here before these I think are reasonable targets and they won’t break the bank:

    G- Neuvirth
    C – Soderberg and Sobotka

    The D targets will be much more difficult to acquire, but not impossible to do. If it is done right, what would it cost? That is the big question here, as well can Nikitin/Ference be moved, and should Schultz be kept, or are there any teams out there with interest who would take him for a top 4 defender. Have the Oilers “destroyed” his value in eyes of the league?

    I have been of the opinion since last season that Schultz is more valuable as a trade asset than as a player on this team. I don’t see him progressing much more that what he currently is. If Edmonton had more vet D depth, perhaps, but this is not the reality.

  72. stevezie says:

    wordbird,

    I don’t care much for drafting goalies because it just takes them so long to develop. Dubnyk is a perfect example. He is clearly one of the two best goalies in the league this year, and what good does it for the team who drafted him? You could argue Lack and Shnieder created as many problems for Vancouver as they solved.

    Look at how cheaply Toronto got Bernier, Calgary got Kipper, someone is going to get either Lehner or Anderson…

    Enough goalies “suddenly” get good in their mid twenties that I am perfectly content to wait for a candidate to shake free and then seize upon a much more immediate thing. Sure, draft one in the late rounds if you can’t believe how far he’s fallen, but developing goalies is just too damn hard. Let someone else do it.

    Yes, you look dumb when you can’t figure out who is about to get good, but I bet Dallas would trade Jack Campbell for Fowler, Tarasenko or Bjugstad pretty quickly right now. How high would MA Fleury or Lehtonen go in a re-draft? Hell, how differently would the last ten years been for the Oilers if they had taken Radulov over Dubnyk?

    Am I cherry-picking examples? Yes, but the point isn’t “who will be the better NHL player”, it is “who will be a better player for the team who drafted him?” Even when you draft a good goalie there is an extended time of confusion and weirdness while he makes the show.

    Pass.

  73. G Money says:

    You want to know how bad BUF is this year?

    The WOI scoring chance +-, as you’d expect, gives the difference between chances created and chances given up.

    The NYI are tops at +372, then DET and CHI at 302 and 282 respectively.

    EDM is about 20th, at -222 (indicative of the popgun attack and tire fire defense).

    CGY is at -239, ARI/TOR/COL at -331, -433, and -446 respectively.

    BUF is -988.

    NINE HUNDRED EIGHTY EIGHT.

    BUF has given up almost a thousand more scoring chances than they’ve gotten this season. More than double the next nearest stinker. They will with certainty get into four figures by seasons end.

    There are no words.

  74. Showerhead says:

    G Money:
    You want to know how bad BUF is this year?

    The WOI scoring chance +-, as you’d expect, gives the difference between chances created and chances given up.

    The NYI are tops at +372, then DET and CHI at 302 and 282 respectively.

    EDM is about 20th, at -222 (indicative of the popgun attack and tire fire defense).

    CGY is at -239, ARI/TOR/COL at -331, -433, and -446 respectively.

    BUF is -988.

    NINE HUNDRED EIGHTY EIGHT.

    BUF has given up almost a thousand more scoring chances than they’ve gotten this season.They will with certainty get into four figures by seasons end.

    There are no words.

    Now you’ve gone and done it. I don’t even want Edmonton to win the lottery anymore.

  75. spoiler says:

    G Money:
    You want to know how bad BUF is this year?

    The WOI scoring chance +-, as you’d expect, gives the difference between chances created and chances given up.

    The NYI are tops at +372, then DET and CHI at 302 and 282 respectively.

    EDM is about 20th, at -222 (indicative of the popgun attack and tire fire defense).

    CGY is at -239, ARI/TOR/COL at -331, -433, and -446 respectively.

    BUF is -988.

    NINE HUNDRED EIGHTY EIGHT.

    BUF has given up almost a thousand more scoring chances than they’ve gotten this season.More than double the next nearest stinker. They will with certainty get into four figures by seasons end.

    There are no words.

    Yes, there are: SIGN NEUVIRTH!!!

    And be done with it. Should be cheaper than Niemi and doesn’t cost an asset.

    Jesus Christ, those Sabres are bad. They’re not watching hockey in Buffalo, they’re watching the Nightmares on Elm Street on repeat.

  76. vinotintazo says:

    Showerhead,

    yeah they need it, even Arizona have a better prospect pool with Domi, Dvorak, Duclair, and probbly will have Marner at the draft. OEL >>>>> Bogossian

  77. spoiler says:

    Showerhead,

    We have a tire fire. Buffalo is full-on Fukushima.

  78. G Money says:

    Showerhead: Now you’ve gone and done it. I don’t even want Edmonton to win the lottery anymore.

    Maybe Bettman can just give them every other draft pick. Man.

    spoiler: Yes, there are: SIGN NEUVIRTH!!!

    Well, yeah, but now you have to worry about how many years the fatigue might last!

  79. McSorley33 says:

    Pure Gold from Bruce at COH today:

    With three games left on the slate in the 2014-15 season, Edmonton has posted a beyond-atrocious 3-20-3 record within their own division, BY FAR the worst in hockey. Indeed, only the Dallas Stars (7) and Pittsburgh Penguins (9) have recorded fewer than 10 wins within their own division. The Oilers have 3 … and 2 of those came via the shootout, so not even at real hockey. Turn that around, and Edmonton’s division rivals are 23-1-2 against the Oilers, for a points percentage of .923. It’s the closest thing to a free space on the NHL calendar that the league has seen for many years.
    *******************************************************************************************
    How is the audit coming along?

    Or is Craig bringing back 80% of the roster…..?

    Just found out they are not televising the draft lottery…..too bad. Would have loved to seen Craig in studio for the honourable moment.

  80. SwedishPoster says:

    Goalies are the ultimate mudslinging position. Just keep tossing crap on the wall and hope some of it sticks. Just like an understimulated monkey. Considering the monkeybrain management we got, this should be something they’re actually good at.
    My bet would be to go after Neuvirth, Niemi something like that but also to load up on longshots. Give Bachman a year and tell him going in that he and Scrivens are battling for the #2 spot. Add someone who ‘s been tearing up the swiss league. O’Connor would be nice. Former Islander Anders Nilsson is having a record breaking playoff in the KHL and has some talent, I wouldn’t mind giving him another shot. Sling that mud/crap/al dente pasta all over the place. We’re tumbling around in the mud d the blood and the beer as it is.

  81. McSorley33 says:

    Ristolainen ( 20) , Zadorov (19) and Bogo……young kids probably should not be in the NHL right now….but there is talent there.

    Grigorenko, Girgensons, Reinhart and Mc/Eichel……

    Plus another 1st round selection this year…..

    1C – Eichel/McDavid
    2C- S. Reinhart
    3C- Girgensons
    4C- Grigorenko

    They are not going to be good until – if/when Risto and Big Z develop….but on paper they look like they should have a decent power play in a few years.

  82. Showerhead says:

    spoiler:
    Showerhead,

    We have a tire fire. Buffalo is full-on Fukushima.

    If the reactor were part of a power plant in an industrial neighbourhood of town whose primary exports were rubber tires, matches, and whiskey.

  83. Bank Shot says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Goalies are the ultimate mudslinging position. Just keep tossing crap on the wall and hope some of it sticks. Just like an understimulated monkey. Considering the monkeybrain management we got, this should be something they’re actually good at.
    My bet would be to go after Neuvirth, Niemi something like that but also to load up on longshots. Give Bachman a year and tell him going in that he and Scrivens are battling for the #2 spot. Add someone who ‘s been tearing up the swiss league. O’Connor would be nice. Former Islander Anders Nilsson is having a record breaking playoff in the KHL and has some talent, I wouldn’t mind giving him another shot. Sling that mud/crap/al dente pasta all over the place. We’re tumbling around in the mud d the blood and the beer as it is.

    There must be guys out there that understand the position. Minnesota, especially under Lemaire has always had quality goaltending. Nashville seems to find guys whenever they need them. Montreal has always had good keepers. Anaheim never has goaltending problems. Well unless you consider too many goalies a problem.

    It just seems certain teams are clueless when it comes to goalies. Philly and Edmonton are right up there on that list.

    Edmonton is up there on a lot of lists when it comes to clueless.

    You could say picking up two unproven goalies every year is the smart bet, but I think when your ass is in the hot seat it changes perspectives a little. There are guys out there like Fleury who take a lot of flack but he hasn’t put up an atrocious season like Dubnyk last year or Scrivens this year in ten years.

    It would be nice going into a season knowing you will be getting top 30 tending at worst.

  84. GCW_69 says:

    Evilas:
    Vasilevsky, Talbot, Jones…..why would TB, NYR or LA do this?Bishop has had injury troubles, Lundquist has been ridden hard and is getting to an age where he will start to break down and Quick has been uneven and has had injury issues the last couple of years.All these guys are on value contracts and are highly unlikely to be moved and I would question whether they are actual proven NHL starters (would YOU be comfortable with one of these guys and Scrivens as their back-up), and therefore if you were MacT, who is on the precipice regarding his employment, would you give up a 2nd round pick for an uncertain commodity?I wouldn’t…..

    IMO I would target Neuvirth, good age, no injury history, good record with crap D in front of him and he wouldn’t cost more than $3mil/yr.

    I think the Oilers missed the window on Vasilevskiy at the trade deadline. GMs do crazy things when they have the cup in sight and TB is certainly there. An offer of Petry and one of Leon or Nurse would have been hard to turn down.

    The only way it happens now is if a non-goaltending weakness is exposed this playoffs and the Oilers have a player that can close said gap. Otherwise, Vasilevskiy isn’t going anywhere or he is going to another team.

  85. G Money says:

    GCW_69: an offer of Petry and one of Leon or Nurse would have been hard to turn down.

    Per our earlier conversation, I get why you’re high on Vasilevskiy, but Petry and Leon or Nurse?

    Given that both those latter two are looking to be full value for their draft positions (3 and 7), trading for a 20 y.o. goalie with fewer than 20 NHL starts would be effectively the same as drafting a goalie at #3 or #7.

    Which in my books is crazy. Easier to buy an established goalie on the market and let e.g. Leon fill elite 2C long term, than have a raw rookie G in the fold and have to try and fill the elite 2C role in some other way.

  86. SwedishPoster says:

    Bank Shot,

    Oh, I’m not saying it doesn’t take skill to know who you get. But as it seems it comes down to making a lot of decent bets rather than having great scouting and pick up THE guy. Look at Anaheim for example they’ve made a lot of different bets on goalies the last few years and they keep making them. Tampa has as well, remember they had Lindbäck as their #1 not long ago. This goes for a lot of teams. You keep making bets, hopefully good ones.

  87. GCW_69 says:

    G Money: Per our earlier conversation, I get why you’re high on Vasilevskiy, but Petry and Leon or Nurse?

    Given that both those latter two are looking to be full value for their draft positions (3 and 7), trading for a 20 y.o. goalie with fewer than 20 NHL starts would be effectively the same as drafting a goalie at #3 or #7.

    Which in my books is crazy.Easier to buy an established goalie on the market and let e.g. Leon fill elite 2C long term, than have a raw rookie G in the fold and have to try and fill the elite 2C role in some other way.

    I wouldn’t start there, but I would be willing to go that high. Price was drafted 6th and I think he is of Price calibre. Its a HUGE risk, but I think the Oilers franchise needs to take a risk at this point.

    Also, I would be willing to pay that because I think whomever went to TB could be replaced easily at this years draft.

  88. pts2pndr says:

    Re: Goalie Summer

    GCW_69
    G Money
    Vasilevsky would also be my first choice. I like his size and he has an extremely quick glove hand as well. His one weekness that I noticed is when the puck gets into his feet. His rebound control is also very good. Vasilevsky has a good chance at being a home run addition!

    Dubnyk’s confidence was destroyed by the swarm defense. It killed his confidence so much so that he almost didn’t recover. Under Eakins system he spent more time alone with the other teams best shooters than a honeymoon couple in the bridal suite!

  89. Evilas says:

    G Money,

    As per GMoney, the best move is to buy a goaltender, there are good Goalies available this year and use assests to acquire a couple of Dmen. Using valuable assets on unproven goalies is a big gamble. If you were to spend more than a 2nd rounder on any goalie that has never been a starter, you are spending way too much, IMO. That being said, had Vasilevskiy been acquired, what impact would it have on him as this roster is currently constructed?

    I have no doubt that you are on to something with this young prospect, he has been on my radar for a couple of years, the trick will always be to acquire talent with a minimal impact on your Organization and then use it/develop it as effectively as you can.

    GMoney,

    What was NYI’s differential last year?

    I think most of us share the opinion that NYI is the model methodology for the Oilers to get out of the sewer.

  90. Pouzar says:

    Holy **** is this for real?

    Woodguy ‏@Woodguy55
    Interesting that @TSNRyanRishaug said Oiler scouts wanted Saad or Jenner in 2011 draft round 2, but Tambellini wanted a Dman.

  91. Woodguy says:

    Rishaug said today on Gregor’s show that the scouts wanted Saad or Jenner, but were instructed to pick a Dman so they gave him Musil.

  92. Dashingsilverfox says:

    bendelson: That sounds like Cam Ward plus a Lehner or Jones…
    Fair?

    I’m not sure about Jones. Not a big enough body of work.

  93. G Money says:

    Evilas: GMoney,
    What was NYI’s differential last year?
    I think most of us share the opinion that NYI is the model methodology for the Oilers to get out of the sewer.

    Reasonable statement – last year was -2, almost mid-point of league.

  94. Younger Oil says:

    Woodguy:
    Rishaug said today on Gregor’s show that the scouts wanted Saad or Jenner, but were instructed to pick a Dman so they gave him Musil.

    Who would have instructed that? Tambo or Batman?

    I remember on Oil Change that the scouts said something along the lines of they made Frank Musil leave the room whenever they were discussing his son, to eliminate bias, but decided he was the correct choice nonetheless.

    Could be mistaken though.

  95. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Evilas:
    G Money,

    I think most of us share the opinion that NYI is the model methodology for the Oilers to get out of the sewer.

    Agreed…they just need to draft a bunch more centres who have top 6 potential.

  96. Woodguy says:

    Pouzar:
    Holy **** is this for real?

    Woodguy ‏@Woodguy55
    Interesting that @TSNRyanRishaug said Oiler scouts wanted Saad or Jenner in 2011 draft round 2, but Tambellini wanted a Dman.

    Who knows, but someone fed it directly to Risaug.

    I think its time to exhume the body of Tambellini and hang him again!!!

  97. Woodguy says:

    Younger Oil: Who would have instructed that? Tambo or Batman?

    I remember on Oil Change that the scouts said something along the lines of they made Frank Musil leave the room whenever they were discussing his son, to eliminate bias, but decided he was the correct choice nonetheless.

    Could be mistaken though.

    Risaug specifically said Tambo.

  98. Woodguy says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Agreed…they just need to draft a bunch more centres who have top 6 potential.

    Centers and D
    Centers and D
    All you draft is
    Centers and D

  99. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Woodguy: Centers and D
    Centers and D
    All you draft is
    Centers and D

    Exactly!

    See Tyler Seguin for reference.

  100. grim.oil says:

    G Money, you are way way way too into your stats. I seen Toronto and Edmonton have gotten real hard into the stats as well. Look how well they are doing. Teams like Detroit meanwhile are saying analytics are just a tool and are living in the playoffs. Stats guys lost me when they tried to put a number on luck. You cant use stats for luck. Sure you have a 1 in 6 chance of rolling a 5 on the dice but if a 5 is rolled 3 times in a row there is not stats that can determine this.

    You tell us of how much better a defense looks when they have a goalie that gives them confidence. Well the same goes about how much better a goalie can look with good defense to give them confidence. As a matter of fact all you have to do is look at Dubnyk and you can see how bad the Oilers defense really is. Dubnyk with NSH is too small a sample size and too soon after Eakins to reacquire confidence. Dubnyk worked out the kinks (that were acquired in Edmonton) and is now a top5 goalie with a solid #1 (Suter) in front of him in MIN. Before Eakins, Dubnyks numbers were pretty solid for a rookie on a bad team.

    Ference making Buffalo or Coloraro defence better. LMAO. That was a good laugh. Here in Edmonton we want him gone on the first train possible and you think he would make other teams better. Thats cute. Still don’t understand how you think COL/BUF has worst defense than EDM. Your stats mean nothing as they only point to one corner of the picture. Edmontons numbers look better because they have guys like Hall ‘pushing the river’. Buffalo has Tyler Ennis. On the other hand Buffalo has a solid dman in Bogosian where Edmonton’s best dman is a rookie in Klefbom. Bring your stats all you want, if you were playing goalie you would want Bogosian and Johnson in front of you over Klefbom. You would also rather have anyone or even a pylon in front of you over Schultz, Nikitin or Ference.

  101. G Money says:

    *** Deleted, because I really don’t want to be rude ***

  102. Bruce McCurdy says:

    GCW_69: I think the Oilers missed the window on Vasilevskiy at the trade deadline. GMs do crazy things when they have the cup in sight and TB is certainly there. An offer of Petry and one of Leon or Nurse would have been hard to turn down.

    Teams do crazy things at the deadline, but why on earth would Tampa be looking to add a hotshot junior like Draisaitl or Nurse for a guy on their current team? That’s the antithesis of the sort of deal a contender is looking to make at that point.

  103. spoiler says:

    G Money:
    *** Deleted, because I really don’t want to be rude ***

    I thought you kept it pretty well in check. You’re the closest thing to Dag Hammarskjöld this commentariat has. Outside of LT himself.

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