KINGS AT OILERS, G80 2014-15

The Edmonton Oilers are 16-22-6 under Todd Nelson solo but the last three games could easily be losses and the verbal on the streets contains a significant amount of ire over recent performances. I would remind everyone that David Musil, Brandon Davidson, Keith Aulie, Niki Nikitin, Justin Schultz and Oscar Klefbom are charter members of the Oilers defense. If you’re mad at the coach, or mad at the players, you’re doing this wrong.

  • Oilers under Eakins plus MacT/Nelson: 76-123 GF-GA (-47)
  • Oilers under Nelson solo: 112-149 GF-GA (-37)

A lot of that is power play and Eberle has been healthy, plus Nuge has taken a step forward and there was a spike in the goaltending for a time. Is it enough for us to consider Todd Nelson as coach next year? The strong performance of Lander and other youngsters (a note to all who view this as a shot at Dallas Eakins: There’s little doubt in my mind Eakins lost his job because bad goaltending, poor shooting percentages and misery on the power play. This is not a condemnation of Dallas Eakins, a person can endorse Nelson without that endorsement representing piling on of Eakins. I’m stating this so that when you dm me about being a turncoat I’ll have explained my pov on the front end) perhaps allows us to think about Nelson as head coach in the coming year. If that happens, his young cluster may look like this:

  • Defense: Oscar Klefbom, Darnell Nurse, Martin Marincin
  • Center: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl, Anton Lander
  • Left Wing: Taylor Hall, Benoit Pouliot
  • Right Wing: Jordan Eberle, Nail Yakupov

If the Oilers can add a defenseman and a winger, plus draft one or two winners this summer, maybe they can start to contend in 2016-17. I think Nelson could be a big help in developing one or two more Barons into useful NHL players. That’s a big deal. The other possibility that seems reasonable is Todd McLellan and Antti Niemi moving north from San Jose in the same summer but for me that’s a long shot. I don’t think it’s reasonable to entertain Mike Babcock coming here, your mileage may vary.

OILERS FORWARDS, 2014-15

oilers forwards april 7Andrew Miller’s numbers are getting caught in the ‘Drew Miller’ player card so I cannot update (this is via stats analysis). The ZS’s are also older (BTN hasn’t updated since G63 or is going through some issues) so this isn’t exactly the situation but does give us some idea about what’s going on. Jordan Eberle recovered to have a nice season, Nuge too although it looks over now. Hall’s injuries are a real worry now, I don’t think he’s in the Wendel Clark ward of worry but there’s some grey hairs forming for sure.

Pouliot is a gem, pure and simple. I like the group of forwards (after the three) that includes him, Boyd Gordon, Anton Lander, Nail Yakupov, Teddy Purcell and Matt Hendricks. I’ll even give you Rob Klinkhammer although he can’t score at all (or is in a terrible slump). So, that’s nine and if they sign Roy we have ten. Nelson can maybe unlock Pakarinen for the Matt Fraser role and we’re close to laughing. I don’t think the forwards are the issue here, especially with Lander’s emergence. I’d love to see Magnus Paajarvi back next season.

That was a helluva pass from Josh Winquist to Ryan Hamilton for the goal. He’s a very nice player and if we’re choosing between AHL LW’s for the 50-man list (and signing) he has my vote to get on board. A scout told me he has a big brain and speed issues are the concern but I’ll take it. Oilers need more skill in OKC and that was a skill pass, my friends.

HALL AT CENTER

  • Hall: “I enjoyed it last game, it would have been nice to get some production. But I felt more comfortable there then I had in the past when they played me there.” Source

Such a dynamic player, if he could ever make the move to pivot the Oilers would have a goldmine. Having said that, the need to move him isn’t as great, with Leon likely on the roster next season and Dylan Strome maybe a year away. Edmonton should have a strong C depth chart in the final two seasons of Hall’s contract.

The Barons play tonight (I’ll have updates for you) and enter a busier time (games tonight, Friday, Saturday and then three next week to end the season) so we’ll see Laleggia and Kyle Platzer (who also signed) for a few games. I wonder if Curtis Hamilton gets a call to the Oilers this week? He and Laurent Brossoit are the last names MacT mentioned who haven’t had a lash at the big leagues.

hennessey1

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

Today we rock the casbah with a strong lineup, beginning 10 this morning on TSN 1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Jonathan Willis, Cult of Hockey. John will procure our defenseman and goalie for 2015-16 and help MacT at the same time. No pressure!
  • Jeff Krushell, Krush Performance. Live from Spain! Spain is east of Newfoundland. Jeff will help us with early days of the MLB season.
  • Kirk Luedeke, Red Line Report. We’re going to drill down on Noah Hanifin and his future, as well as a fascinating goalie prospect named Matej Tomek.
  • Travis Yost, TSN Analytics. The Ottawa Senators are a compelling story, we’ll touch base on an exciting week of NHL hockey (not in Edmonton, but other places).

10-1260 text, @Lowetide_ on twitter. Stay tuned!

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286 Responses to "KINGS AT OILERS, G80 2014-15"

« Older Comments
  1. Suntory Hanzo says:

    Haven’t heard Norris’ name at all tonight. Is he even playing? And no, I’m not trying to jinx amything

  2. Ray says:

    Pouzar: Not “trade yer 2nd 1st rounder” worthy.

    Looks good enough to give them Scrivens and a fifth round pick though, you know, because you wouldn’t hold back salary on the deal.

  3. Pouzar says:

    RexLibris: I think you could move from 16 to 10 at that price point. Kylington would be an interesting target. Very much like Klefbom in that he is overshadowed in his draft year by more local, polished talents but playing overseas and given time to develop could prove just as good as some of the more noted players.

    Strome and Kylington would a good day’s work.

    Make up my mind!

  4. Snowman says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    I was just trying to see if I could get you to bite on that. Little bit of entertainment for myself.

  5. RexLibris says:

    Eberle.

    Takes his shot from 180 feet away and misses by inches.

  6. Pouzar says:

    Lander gets an apple on Pitick’s goal….YAY!

  7. RexLibris says:

    Pouzar: Make up my mind!

    I’m in the Strome camp. Too much talent down the middle to pass up. I think you can draft another D by moving up or waiting for one to fall. Failing that, I like Harkens with the Penguins pick.

  8. dangilitis says:

    Dashingsilverfox:
    Monahan increases his unsustainable shooting percentage.

    True. I don’t know if you remember the kid line (http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=382724) – how did things work out for them?

    Gaudreau and Monahan and Hudler could be a legit #1 line in the NHL, and Hudler and Monahan could sustain shooting percentages 16-20% for the next few years. Or they could regress just like Yak, etc.

    Even if you don’t believe in Corsi/Fenwick, seriously, do you see a team succeeding long-term with that 1st line. I’ll even add Bennett in there.

  9. Suntory Hanzo says:

    The Kings broadcasters are very even in their calling. Perhaps the most I’ve heard in the league. Praising the oilers and also agreeing that the no call on Doughty was correct.

  10. delooper says:

    Did the Oilers really beat LA?

  11. Ice Sage says:

    Oilers all but snuff the season of the Stanley Cup champions… that’s a pretty pale claim to fame but it’s ‘something to build on for next year’.

  12. Ryan says:

    Holy ****. That was the most excitement I’ve felt watching an Oilers game since 2006.

  13. Gerta Rauss says:

    Ha!!!

    Shove it LA

    Couldn’t happen to a nicer team

    28th place it is, with a hail mary for the lottery ball

  14. RexLibris says:

    I was hoping Yakupov would score the goal that ended the Kings’ season.

  15. LoDog says:

    Fuck LA.

    That is all.

  16. Tarkus says:

    As a result of the win and the Coyotes’ loss, Arizona can’t catch EDM now. Oilers will enter the draft lottery with the #3 pick.

  17. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Going to be one hell of a finish.

    LA @ CAL

    CAL @ WPG

  18. RicaGreaser says:

    Yak with the presence to find Fraser. Love it.

  19. godot10 says:

    RexLibris: I’m in the Strome camp. Too much talent down the middle to pass up. I think you can draft another D by moving up or waiting for one to fall. Failing that, I like Harkens with the Penguins pick.

    How many Cups have Crosby and Malkin won? How many Cups has Drew Doughty?

    #JustSayNoah

  20. Snowman says:

    God I love that we won this game after the ass kicking we received the other night. Only thing I’d like more than this is if it was the Phlegms or Canucks.

    Feels nice to have a win that means something…ish.

  21. Pouzar says:

    RexLibris: I’m in the Strome camp. Too much talent down the middle to pass up. I think you can draft another D by moving up or waiting for one to fall. Failing that, I like Harkens with the Penguins pick.

    Such an intriguing draft this year as an Oiler fan with Marner/Hanifin/Strome and the added Penguin pick. Last year we pretty much knew Drai was the pick so not much drama. We’ll be debating this one right till MacT takes the podium.

  22. Dashingsilverfox says:

    dangilitis: True. I don’t know if you remember the kid line (http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=382724) – how did things work out for them?

    Gaudreau and Monahan and Hudler could be a legit #1 line in the NHL, and Hudler and Monahan could sustain shooting percentages 16-20% for the next few years. Or they could regress just like Yak, etc.

    Even if you don’t believe in Corsi/Fenwick, seriously, do you see a team succeeding long-term with that 1st line. I’ll even add Bennett in there.

    Yes.

    Hudler’s shooting percentage is truly unsustainable but Monahan’s and Gaudreau’s aren’t.

    You have to remember that Gaudreau is a rookie and Monahan is 20…they’ll get better.

    Add Sam Bennett and a couple of scoring wingers and they’re off to the races.

  23. flyfish1168 says:

    Just maybe the hockey gods will reward us for this win.

  24. RexLibris says:

    Dashingsilverfox:
    Going to be one hell of a finish.

    LA @ CAL

    CAL @ WPG

    Calgary has already won the season series 3 games to 1. So the Kings will need to run the table.

  25. Lowetide says:

    Good job Richard Bachman. You are a man.

  26. B S says:

    People can comment on how that game isn’t representative of what we can expect next year, meaningless, yada yada, but it looked to me like that was a Kings team that wanted it, that it meant something, and the Oilers put in a hell of a game.

  27. sliderule says:

    Hall to my eyes played a fine game at center.

    11-17 in face offs and had the puck on his stick all night.

    Like it has been said many times here. “You can’t have too many centres”

  28. Tire Fire says:

    Oscar Dreambom at near 26 min.
    Jultz @ 22
    Marincin and Musil both at 20
    Davidson 17
    Aulie 13

    Probably a decent read on how the team ranks these guys, though the Davidson/Aulie pairing lost minutes during the fighting penalty.

    I thought Musil looked pretty good out there. Speed didn’t look to be an issue for him today, but that might be because the Kings seemed crazy slow today.

  29. Jigger says:

    I hate how the Oilers management have got me to the point where I am cheering for the Flames. The only thing that has mattered to me for the last 7 years is draft standing. Most nights I’m hoping my team loses. FU Kevin Lowe & MacT

  30. dangilitis says:

    I am mad at the Oilers for showing up on the absolute wrong effing night. Then again, if LA couldn’t beat this D at even strength (2nd night in a row be damned), then do they really deserve to be in the playoffs?

    Edmonton just did Canada a lot of favours tonight. Canucks clinch, Calgary and Winnipeg clear favourites to lock up the last 2 spots. Doughty and Carter added to the World Championship rosters?

  31. Tire Fire says:

    I was just thinking to myself how this McNabb guy is an issue pretty much every shift when he got beat for a goal. LA has some good defensemen, but he is not one of them.

  32. Dicky94 says:

    Tire Fire,

    Musil kinda reminds me of Regehr. If he ends up like him I think we would be happy.

  33. Pouzar says:

    sliderule:
    Hall to my eyes played a fine game at center.

    11-17 in face offs and had the puck on his stick all night.

    Like it has been said many times here. “You can’t have too many centres”

    Best game at Center for me…and it’s not even close.

  34. Snowman says:

    Lowetide:
    Good job Richard Bachman. You are a man.

    100% agreed. Hell of a tough circumstance. Fantastic performance.

    Man indeed.

  35. Tire Fire says:

    Dicky94,

    He brings the same strength to the corner battles as Aulie, but is a better passer. Aulie does some things very well but can’t make a pass to save his life.

  36. Pouzar says:

    I hate life.

    Calgary Flames ‏@NHLFlames 8m8 minutes ago
    @EdmontonOilers Thanks

  37. RexLibris says:

    Pouzar: Such an intriguing draft this year as an Oiler fan with Marner/Hanifin/Strome and the added Penguin pick. Last year we pretty much knew Drai was the pick so not much drama. We’ll be debating this one right till MacT takes the podium.

    I disagree. There was a lot of debate here about Draisaitl v Bennett. Lowetide liked Bennett as the more complete skill set while Rom pretty much blasted DRAISAITL from his car stereo around the block until everyone shut up and took notice. With the Flames picking right behind the Oilers there was a lot of debate because whomever the Oilers passed on was going to be a Flame.

    This year I think there is less debate because they have so many options and really couldn’t go wrong with any of them, albeit to varying degrees.

    I’m in the Strome camp because I feel he is a potential 1st line center and adding him to Nugent-Hopkins and Draisaitl is just too important to pass up. That taken in addition to the option of trading up to get the falling D, as they so often do in the draft, is the best course of action, in my opinion.

    Think of the 2013 draft when Ristolainen went 8th, Morissey 13th and Zadorov 16th, to name three, whereas MacKinnon, Barkov, Lindholm, Monahan and Horvat (all Cs) went in the top ten.

  38. Pouzar says:

    RexLibris: I disagree. There was a lot of debate here about Draisaitl v Bennett. Lowetide liked Bennett as the more complete skill set while Rom pretty much blasted DRAISAITL from his car stereo around the block until everyone shut up and took notice. With the Flames picking right behind the Oilers there was a lot of debate because whomever the Oilers passed on was going to be a Flame.

    This year I think there is less debate because they have so many options and really couldn’t go wrong with any of them, albeit to varying degrees.

    I’m in the Strome camp because I feel he is a potential 1st line center and adding him to Nugent-Hopkins and Draisaitl is just too important to pass up. That taken in addition to the option of trading up to get the falling D, as they so often do in the draft, is the best course of action, in my opinion.

    Think of the 2013 draft when Ristolainen went 8th, Morissey 13th and Zadorov 16th, to name three, whereas MacKinnon, Barkov, Lindholm, Monahan and Horvat (all Cs) went in the top ten.

    Yes there was a lot of debate here but personally I knew it was Drai for MacT.
    I went back and forth till the last minute.

  39. RexLibris says:

    Tire Fire:
    Oscar Dreambom at near 26 min.
    Jultz @ 22
    Marincin and Musil both at 20
    Davidson 17
    Aulie 13

    Probably a decent read on how the team ranks these guys, though the Davidson/Aulie pairing lost minutes during the fighting penalty.

    I thought Musil looked pretty good out there.Speed didn’t look to be an issue for him today, but that might be because the Kings seemed crazy slow today.

    Jeez, imagine if Marincin and Musil could become a 3rd pairing shut down defense. That’d be a nice change from…uh…everything.

  40. Tire Fire says:

    Pouzar:
    I hate life.

    Calgary Flames ‏@NHLFlames8m8 minutes ago
    @EdmontonOilers Thanks

    Why would you follow their twitter feed? It might be simpler to just bite a nice, bitter lemon rind every few hours…

  41. RexLibris says:

    Pouzar:
    I hate life.

    Calgary Flames ‏@NHLFlames8m8 minutes ago
    @EdmontonOilers Thanks

    Don’t worry about it. Think how much it galled their social communications person to text that.

  42. TheseColoursDontRun says:

    Tire Fire,

    But Aulie can do MOAR PUNCHING.

  43. dangilitis says:

    Lowetide:
    Good job Richard Bachman. You are a man.

    Now I am not saying Bachman over Scrivens and ridding the team of Ference and NIkitin in favour of the young D should be the Oilers’ plan, but how could they get any worse with these changes?

    I want players on this team who have incentive to play hard and play their best, and have promise to get better. Ference and Nikitin give the team neither. Yes, Edmonton caught LA on the 2nd game of back-to-backs, and they got trounced beforehand, but every D should be proud of how they played tonight. Nurse being rushed into the top 4 is a bad thing, but it is a worse thing to let the team have Nikitin take that spot in the top 4. A better thing would be to free up Ference and Nikitin money and wait for the right play for a D-man.

    And why didn’t we get to see Bachman more often this year? This team had no goaltending all season, and all the AHL goalies were doing was keeping their team in games. Bachman doesn’t have enough of a resume to earn a backup role next year, and yes Scrivens has Dubnyk potential, but Bachman didn’t even get a chance and that’s a damn shame.

  44. Pouzar says:

    Tire Fire: Why would you follow their twitter feed? It might be simpler to just bite a nice, bitter lemon rind every few hours…

    It was re-tweeted by our friend Mr. Willis.

  45. Pouzar says:

    dangilitis: Now I am not saying Bachman over Scrivens and ridding the team of Ference and NIkitin in favour of the young D should be the Oilers’ plan, but how could they get any worse with these changes?

    I am.

  46. Tire Fire says:

    Pouzar: It was re-tweeted by our newfound enemy, Mr. Willis.

    Fixed.

  47. Pouzar says:

    Richard D. Cloutier ‏@rdcloutier 2m2 minutes ago
    No matter where you are from in Canada, you can’t hate the @NHLJets That team is responsible for 92% of Manitoba’s economy #Fact

    *Whistling Dixie*

  48. RicaGreaser says:

    For me the tastiest part of this story is that the Phlegms and Cannots are not lottery eligible and one of them is out in the first round. I can live with that.

  49. RexLibris says:

    Tire Fire: Fixed.

    Now now, pity the poor Willis who has to, as part of his professional duty, subscribe to their twitter feed.

  50. rickithebear says:

    lander is awesome!

    we return you to your regular oilers complaining!

  51. Pouzar says:

    rickithebear:
    lander is awesome!

    This.

  52. Dashingsilverfox says:

    RicaGreaser:
    For me the tastiest part of this story is that the Phlegms and Cannots are not lottery eligible and one of them is out in the first round. I can live with that.

    That’s really reaching.

    We tend to forget about the financial implications of making the playoffs.

    Assuming a 6 game series…each team gets about $6-7 million in revenue that is not shared with the players.

    One of them will likely end up with a bounty of more than $10 million even if they don’t advance beyond the second round.

    All that cash can go into improving the team for the following season.

    Losing out on playoff revenue is VERY expensive.

  53. dangilitis says:

    Pouzar: I am.

    Haha, I didn’t know if it was too controversial to just come right out and say it, but if Toronto can get Clarkson off the books, Edmonton can be creative enough to get rid of Ference and Nikitin. Having these guys on the team is not only a large opportunity cost in terms of the salary that could be devoted elsewhere, but also the fact that the team could be giving time to younger D prospects who will play with piss and vinegar. Nikitin’s only advantage over a player like Musil is “experience” and a booming PP shot that did nothing for the PP this year. Davidson brings everything that Ference does, and even though Ference came into the team with a reputation for being determined, he has shit on what Davidson has done. These are just 2 examples, and I am not saying Musil and Davidson should be 2 of the starting 6 D-men next year, but they would be better and cheaper options than those 2 (as would Nurse, and possibly Laleggia or Simpson in the near future).

  54. Dicky94 says:

    Pouzar,

    The other 8% is 7-11 slurpee’s.

  55. Pouzar says:

    dangilitis: Haha, I didn’t know if it was too controversial to just come right out and say it, but if Toronto can get Clarkson off the books, Edmonton can be creative enough to get rid of Ference and Nikitin. Having these guys on the team is not only a large opportunity cost in terms of the salary that could be devoted elsewhere, but also the fact that the team could be giving time to younger D prospects who will play with piss and vinegar. Nikitin’s only advantage over a player like Musil is “experience” and a booming PP shot that did nothing for the PP this year. Davidson brings everything that Ference does, and even though Ference came into the team with a reputation for being determined, he has shit on what Davidson has done. These are just 2 examples, and I am not saying Musil and Davidson should be 2 of the starting 6 D-men next year, but they would be better and cheaper options than those 2 (as would Nurse, and possibly Laleggia or Simpson in the near future).

    Exactly this my friend. I’ve been saying forever that you could pick any 2 OKC defensemen to replace Ference/NN and you are at least as good and a helluva lot cheaper. This will be a telling offseason. If MacT doesn’t admit his mistakes and comes back with all of FSN he won’t be GM for the opening of Rogers Place.

  56. dangilitis says:

    Dashingsilverfox: That’s really reaching.

    We tend to forget about the financial implications of making the playoffs.

    Assuming a 6 game series…each team gets about $6-7 million in revenue that is not shared with the players.

    One of them will likely end up with a bounty of more than $10 million even if they don’t advance beyond the second round.

    All that cash can go into improving the team for the following season.

    Losing out on playoff revenue is VERY expensive.

    Ya, the <2% chance of Calgary winning the lottery is far less rewarding than watching the Flames miss the playoffs. I live in Calgary and already seeing some of those Flames flags from car windows is making me queasy, and depressed (my Oilers flag has been sitting in the trunk collecting dust for 9 years – don't worry, the bumper sticker is still there)

  57. Pouzar says:

    Dicky94:
    Pouzar,

    The other 8% is 7-11 slurpee’s.

    Ha ha…so true….Been living here for 16 years….NEVER had a slurpee.
    You should see the faces here when I tell them. 🙂

  58. RicaGreaser says:

    Dashingsilverfox: That’s really reaching.

    I said the tastiest. Not that missing the playoffs for the millionth year is awesome as kissing the pretty girl behind the portables, just that the shit-flavoured icing on my Oiler fan-for-life muffin tastes less shitty beacause
    A. Connor McDavid will be neither a Canuck nor Flame despite how much the hockey gords hate us.
    B. Revenue in pocket, one of the teams I like least will be done in the first round and not ruin my life by winning the cup.

    It just makes for a better shit-iced muffin, man.

  59. Dashingsilverfox says:

    dangilitis: Ya, the <2% chance of Calgary winning the lottery is far less rewarding than watching the Flames miss the playoffs. I live in Calgary and already seeing some of those Flames flags from car windows is making me queasy, and depressed (my Oilers flag has been sitting in the trunk collecting dust for 9 years – don’t worry, the bumper sticker is still there)

    To be honest…the Flames remind me very much of the 2006 Oilers.

  60. Dashingsilverfox says:

    RicaGreaser: I said the tastiest. Not that missing the playoffs for the millionth year is awesome as kissing the pretty girl behind the portables, just that the shit-flavoured icing on my Oiler fan-for-life muffin tastes less shitty beacause
    A. Connor McDavid will be neither a Canuck nor Flame despite how much the hockey gords hate us.
    B. Revenue in pocket, one of the teams I like least will be done in the first round and not ruin my life by winning the cup.

    It just makes for a better shit-iced muffin, man.

    Bon appetit!

  61. Pouzar says:

    Dashingsilverfox: To be honest…the Flames remind me very much of the 2006 Oilers.

    I will find you!

  62. Dicky94 says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    I still don’t think Calgary makes it.

  63. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Dicky94:
    Dashingsilverfox,

    I still don’t think Calgary makes it.

    They have two games left.

    At home to LA.

    And at Winnipeg.

    They just need 2 points from those two games since they hold the tie breaker on both LA and Winnipeg.

    I like their chances.

  64. Gordies Elbow says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    Maybe. Personally, I’d love to see them smoke the Vancouver Canucks in the first round. Could happen, too.

    That said, it’s likely another team gets to smoke the Vancouver Canucks in the first round. Hey, anything(**) can happen in the playoffs!

    **anything doesn’t denote Vancouver ever winning a cup, though. Good luck with that. 🙂

  65. Adam Wu says:

    Dashingsilverfox: To be honest…the Flames remind me very much of the 2006 Oilers.

    So….

    The Flames will go on a magical run to the Cup Finals, only to lose. In the offseason, something happens between Giordano and a local news reporter, forcing him to ask for a trade for “family reasons”. The Flames management spend the next 10 years chasing the white whale of another cup run, selling off the team’s assets one by one, for peanuts and bags of broken pucks.

    The Flames become a lottery team for the next 20 years (just as the lottery format changes so it no longer favors perpetual losing).

    Should this analogous scenario come to pass….

    …I think I could live with it….

  66. Dashingsilverfox says:

    If the playoff seeds are based on the current standings…here are the 1st round matches in the WC:

    STL vs. WPG

    NSH vs. MIN

    CHI vs. ANA

    VAN vs. CAL

    I can see STL, MIN, CHI and VCR emerging from that group.

    Then you have:

    STL vs. VCR

    CHI vs. MIN

    How do you think those series would turn out?

  67. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Adam Wu: So….

    The Flames will go on a magical run to the Cup Finals, only to lose. In the offseason, something happens between Giordano and a local news reporter, forcing him to ask for a trade for “family reasons”. The Flames management spend the next 10 years chasing the white whale of another cup run, selling off the team’s assets one by one, for peanuts and bags of broken pucks.

    The Flames become a lottery team for the next 20 years (just as the lottery format changes so it no longer favors perpetual losing).

    Should this analogous scenario come to pass….

    …I think I could live with it….

    Nah…the nightmare ends when the Flames acquire Phil Kessel and Andrej Sekera and carry on.

  68. dangilitis says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Yes.

    Hudler’s shooting percentage is truly unsustainable but Monahan’sand Gaudreau’s aren’t.

    You have to remember that Gaudreau is a rookie and Monahan is 20…they’ll get better.

    Add Sam Bennett and a couple of scoring wingers and they’re off to the races.

    So Hudler’s 18.8% SPG is unsustainable, but Monahan’s 16.6% is sustainable?

    hockey-reference.com lists current active career leaders in shooting percentage
    Alex Tanguay, 18.94%
    Steven Stamkos, 17.24%
    Brenden Morrow, 15.96%
    So you would slot Monahan in between Stamkos and Morrow?
    All-time that would put him a shade below guys like Gretzky (17.57), and other players who played in an era where the top 10 annual shooting percentages were regularly between 20 and 30%.

    The league average this year is 8.92%, and the 3 forwards on that line are shooting an average of 16.5%!!! If they regressed to the norm, that would mean a reduction in goals by nearly 50%, and significantly more of a reduction in apples.

    Can I have some of what you are smoking?

  69. Adam Wu says:

    dangilitis: Haha, I didn’t know if it was too controversial to just come right out and say it, but if Toronto can get Clarkson off the books, Edmonton can be creative enough to get rid of Ference and Nikitin. Having these guys on the team is not only a large opportunity cost in terms of the salary that could be devoted elsewhere, but also the fact that the team could be giving time to younger D prospects who will play with piss and vinegar. Nikitin’s only advantage over a player like Musil is “experience” and a booming PP shot that did nothing for the PP this year. Davidson brings everything that Ference does, and even though Ference came into the team with a reputation for being determined, he has shit on what Davidson has done. These are just 2 examples, and I am not saying Musil and Davidson should be 2 of the starting 6 D-men next year, but they would be better and cheaper options than those 2 (as would Nurse, and possibly Laleggia or Simpson in the near future).

    Next year, either NN recovers his pre-injury form and becomes the serviceable 3-4D he always was, or Nurse will eat his lunch by midseason and he will be traded at the deadline, or simply not re-signed.

    Nikitin really isn’t a long term problem for the Oilers at all.

  70. Gordies Elbow says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    I’m as sure that Calgary will win against Vancouver as you are that Toronto will win the draft lottery.

  71. dangilitis says:

    Dashingsilverfox:
    If the playoff seeds are based on the current standings…here are the 1st round matches in the WC:

    STL vs. WPG

    NSH vs. MIN

    CHI vs. ANA

    VAN vs. CAL

    I can see STL, MIN, CHI and VCR emerging from that group.

    Then you have:

    STL vs. VCR

    CHI vs. MIN

    How do you think those series would turn out?

    Minnesota/Nashville winner (I think Minny wins in 7) vs. St Louis

  72. Numenius says:

    So, the Fraser-Lander-Pitlick combo went (edit:) 3-2-5 point-wise and had the only positive 5×5 Corsi on the team (9, 7, 7).

    That’s a good day’s work, I’d say.

  73. fifthcartel says:

    Oscar Klefbom’s at a 26-point pace after tonight. He’s at 58gp 2g 17a 19p, and I was expecting Smid level offense so this is a nice plus. Although, I’m not sure how much is the offensive zone push.

    If he puts up ~25 a year playing the toughs I’ll be very happy.

  74. Hammers says:

    Is Bachman back to OKL for the Saturday game ? What about Davidson , Musil & Marincin . After tonight’s win I can concentrate on the Barons play-off run .Pitlick can’t go back or am I wrong ? I guess if Pakirinen gets healthy he can go . Does Nelson get any credit for the win tonight ? Used his “D” correctly along with the 3rd & 4th lines . Hire Him McT .

  75. Dashingsilverfox says:

    dangilitis: So Hudler’s 18.8% SPG is unsustainable, but Monahan’s 16.6% is sustainable?

    hockey-reference.com lists current active career leaders in shooting percentage
    Alex Tanguay, 18.94%
    Steven Stamkos, 17.24%
    Brenden Morrow, 15.96%
    So you would slot Monahan in between Stamkos and Morrow?
    All-time that would put him a shade below guys like Gretzky (17.57), and other players who played in an era where the top 10 annual shooting percentages were regularly between 20 and 30%.

    The league average this year is 8.92%, and the 3 forwards on that line are shooting an average of 16.5%!!! If they regressed to the norm, that would mean a reduction in goals by nearly 50%, and significantly more of a reduction in apples.

    Can I have some of what you are smoking?

    I know you really, really want to believe that Monahan is an outlier…so let me tell you a story.

    Here is a player with a similar shooting percentage.

    13.9

    14.6

    22.1

    19.3

    13.0

    11.7

    12.9

    13.3

    16.8

    11.6

    14.0

    13.5

    15.5

    Career – 14.4

    While this player has had some up and downs, there is a big enough body of work to assume his shooting percentage is the real deal…somewhere between 14 and 15 percent.

    Monahan is currently slightly above that but we have NO EVIDENCE to assume his shooting percentage should or will be lower in the future.

    Great players DO NOT REGRESS TO THE MEAN.

    Ask Pavel Datsyuk…he’s not the mean.

  76. Heinz 57 says:

    First time I turned on the radio since November 13th, just for the closing minutes. For a minute there, if I closed my eyes, I could almost imagine that the Oilers had successfully imposed their will on an adversary in a maximal state of desperation.

    Does everyone know that dream where you’re back in university and you’ve just slept through half the exam? Some of those Kings forwards will be dreaming that they’re back in the AHL and they still can’t get it done.

    Man, we dressed a real “who is who” on the blueline tonight.

  77. rickithebear says:

    Pouzar:
    Richard D. Cloutier ‏@rdcloutier2m2 minutes ago
    No matter where you are from in Canada, you can’t hate the @NHLJets That team is responsible for 92% of Manitoba’s economy #Fact

    *Whistling Dixie*

    I work with a guy who was a test pilot for MacDon.

  78. Numenius says:

    Suntory Hanzo:
    Haven’t heard Norris’ name at all tonight. Is he even playing?And no, I’m not trying to jinx amything

    I like what Nelson said in his post-game interview: “I liked the way the big guys [on D] back there battled hard. Musil was strong, uh, every one of them: [even] Justin Schultz was battling.”

    Shows you he’s well aware Schultz is not known for his battling.

    But thank gord, although he had some some blunders, he genuinely was tonight.

  79. dangilitis says:

    Dashingsilverfox: I know you really, really want to believe that Monahan is an outlier…so let me tell you a story.

    Here is a player with a similar shooting percentage.

    13.9

    14.6

    22.1

    19.3

    13.0

    11.7

    12.9

    13.3

    16.8

    11.6

    14.0

    13.5

    15.5

    Career – 14.4

    While this player has had some up and downs, there is a big enough body of work to assume his shooting percentage is the real deal…somewhere between 14 and 15 percent.

    Monahan is currently slightly above that but we have NO EVIDENCE to assume his shooting percentage should or will be lower in the future.

    Great players DO NOT REGRESS TO THE MEAN.

    Ask Pavel Datsyuk…he’s not the mean.

    You are seriously comparing Datsyuk to Monahan? And actually suggesting Monahan is a better shooter (there is a big difference between 15 and 17% shooting percentage)

    Let me tell you another story about a top prospect who finished his rookie season with a S% of 20.99, which then predictably dropped to 9 then 6.6% in subsequent years, making his career shooting percentage of 10.4, still well above the norm. His last name is Yakupov.

    There are plenty of players who have lucky first-second years, then S% plummets (Cogliano was 18.4 and 15.5 in his first 2 years) and they go back to earth.

    But you believe that regression only happens to average players, which is ridiculous, but OK…

    1) Iginla – career S% of 13.2. In his Richard winning campaigns, his S% were 15.5 and 16.7.
    2) Eberle – career S% of 14.0. In his 2nd year he had a lot of people fooled with an 18.9% shooting success.
    3) Datsyuk – above you demonstrated that he had 2 complete outliers early in his career at 22.1 and 19.3.

    There are countless others out there that show the wide variation in S% from year to year.

    So let’s address your faulty reasoning here:

    “Monahan is currently slightly above that but we have NO EVIDENCE to assume his shooting percentage should or will be lower in the future.”

    You have NO EVIDENCE (does it make it sound better if I capitalize letters?) to assume that his shooting percentage should be maintained anywhere near 16.6%, in elite category, on the basis of his first 2 seasons.

    “Great players DO NOT REGRESS TO THE MEAN”

    True, but high S% make some players look greater than they are for a few years, then the wheels fall off and on – there are plenty of examples of this. Hudler looked more average in 2007-08 and 2009-10 when he scored 13 goals/42 pts on 131 shots, and 10 goals/37 pts on 105 shots, respectively. In 2011-2012, he had S% of 19.7 and hit 25 goals/50 pts on 127 shots.
    And yet his career S%, while high, is 15. This career year is coinciding with a ridiculous S%, combined with similarly high S% in his regular linemates.

    And I will end with my initial point that you failed to grasp, which is that REGRESSION, OF ANY AMOUNT, DROPS PRODUCTION. I have every reason to believe that if Hudler’s S% drops from 19 to 15, Monahan’s drops from 17 to 13, and Gaudreau drops from 14 to 12%, that the result could really affect that line’s productivity.

  80. SwedishPoster says:

    Am I the only one who Think Davidson had a very good game? He lost the puck a few times but never in a truly dangerous way, broke up a bunch of plays, played physical when needed, was great positionally even in moments when Aulie Went astray and blocked 5 shots. Decent simple puckmoving as well.

    Lander can really run a line despite non-elite wingers. Nice Bounce back game after a terrible game against the Flames. Let’s hope he can keep this kind of play up over a full season next year, would be huge for our center depth. Really impressive for the vast majority of games ever since Nelson took the realms.

  81. Kmart99 says:

    godot10: How many Cups have Crosby and Malkin won?How many Cups has Drew Doughty?

    #JustSayNoah

    Hope scouts are right about Hanifin if the Oilers pick him.

    Hedman, Larsson, Jones, Ekblad, Gudbransson, Hickey, Doughty,E. Johnson, etc… The #1 d men drafted lately have been a taster’s choice ranging from unbelievable to meh. The #1 centers and #1 wingers on the other hand….. Although Yakupov could be argued as not good despite my love affair with his attitude and work ethic.

  82. PhrankLee says:

    The Oilers matched a team with physical intensity last night. And it was against a team that requires you to take some lumps in the corners. Requires you to either play a ‘mans game’ or suck wind.

    Pride on the line, embarrassed by recent drubbings, whatever the case it was the first time I’ve seen them push in a physical way that resulted in them being taken seriously even if only for 3/4 of a game.

    I think that was the first time I’ve seen them draw a line in the sand and hold it this year.

    I am not in the ‘moar hits’ club. Don’t you dare.

    This is a contact sport, after all. The Oilers looked like a hockey team last night.

    The Nelson shaded OKC line up rolled up sleeves and worked like Hutterites.

    That was nice to see.

  83. Pouzar says:

    PhrankLee:
    The Oilers matched a team with physical intensity last night. And it was against a team that requires you to take some lumps in the corners.Requires you to either play a ‘mans game’ or suck wind.

    Pride on the line, embarrassed by recent drubbings, whatever the case it was the first time I’ve seen them push in a physical way that resulted in them being taken seriously even if only for 3/4 of a game.

    I think that was the first time I’ve seen them draw a line in the sand and hold it this year.

    I am not in the ‘moar hits’ club. Don’t you dare.

    This is a contact sport, after all.The Oilers looked like a hockey team last night.

    The Nelson shaded OKC line up rolled up sleeves and worked like Hutterites.

    That was nice to see.

    Funny what a decent save % can do too.

  84. PhrankLee says:

    Pouzar,

    Like I said, they looked like a hockey team.

    All three departments digging in. Together.

    The telling play for me on this was Taylor on the goal line surely saving a goal.

    Not bad for a ‘dressing room cancer’..

  85. stevezie says:

    godot10,

    I feel like you are missing the primary counterargument to your Noah campaign. I don’t think the argument is that a Malkin is more important than a Doughty, it’s that Strome has a higher percentage chance of being something like a Malkin than Noah does of being something like a Doughty.

    I may be mis-characterizing your opponents. For myself, I would say I am nervous about drafting and D high. That said, I’m fine with Noah. I’m fine with any of them. I’m the “trade down if the offer is there” advocate.

    We need everything.

  86. Pouzar says:

    PhrankLee:
    Pouzar,

    Like I said, they looked like a hockey team.

    All three departments digging in. Together.

    The telling play for me on this was Taylor on the goal line surely saving a goal.

    Not bad for a ‘dressing room cancer’..

    Hall looked really good at Center.
    I won’t mention NN/Ference being out. Ooops

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