A RATIONAL LOOK AT PROSPECT ETA’S

If there’s one thing Anton Lander has shown the Oilers (and their fans) it’s that patience is a virtue. Drafted in 2009, hurried to the NHL in 2011, arrived in 2015. Craig MacTavish mentioned the ‘Detroit model’ of development not long ago and Lander is that brand of development personified. If that’s the new way of doing things—patience—when should we expect the kids bubbling under to arrive as NHL players?

READY NOW

  • D Oscar Klefbom. It seems silly to list him here but there were questions about development time at the beginning of the year and Klefbom did in fact spend time in OKC this season. He won’t see the minors again.
  • C Anton Lander. The new contract signals arrival and if that wasn’t enough watching the games shows his growth as a player. My oh my, what a wonderful thing to see: An actual NHL player developed via the minor league system. Now that the club has done it, the trick is to repeat it.
  • R Tyler Pitlick. If the young man could stay healthy I’d be willing to bet Pitlick is on the opening night roster in the fall. This week’s games had value despite the standings, as the young winger has sown a range of skills (and scored a goal) to put his name front and center for next year.
  • D Martin Marincin. There are gaps in his game (awareness, strength) but it’s my guess he’ll settle in as a solid top 6 defenseman for many NHL seasons—hopefully with the Oilers.
  • D Brandon Davidson. I think he’s ready for the 7D role, but that job is likely to be gifted to a veteran like Nikitin or Ference next season. Davidson has impressed me with his mobility, grit and passing. Far better player than I thought he’d be, Davidson has a chance to have a career.

 ANY DAY NOW

  • D Darnell Nurse. I think it makes worlds of sense to place him in Bakersfield, but if Nurse arrives in training camp and is clearly among the six best defensemen? Keep him, even if it mean placing a veteran on waivers—up to and including Niki Nikitin and Andrew Ference.
  • C Leon Draisaitl. I have a feeling the big man is going to make it very difficult to send him back this fall. Leon’s performance this season showed he wasn’t ready but there were exceptional elements to his game. He’s not THAT far way.

ONE MORE YEAR OR LESS

  • R Andrew Miller. His NHL audition recently suggests we’re looking at an NHL-ready player. I was impressed with his skills and speed, clearly faster than his TC’s as an Oiler.
  • G Laurent Brossoit. He has showed a lot this winter and spring but caution is always a good idea with goaltenders. I loved Brossoit’s game last night but sending him back today (and not playing him tomorrow) was absolutely the right call. Let him bask in that effort all summer long.
  • R Iiro Pakarinen. Injuries have obscured his initial impressions but a healthy Pakarinen brings a unique phyical element married to some skill. I wouldn’t be shocked if he won a job in TC.
  • L Curtis Hamilton. One healthy season has him heading in a good direction and another should get him closer to his goal. I don’t know if Hamilton gets a contract for next season but suspect some NHL team grabs him if Edmonton moves on.
  • D David Musil. Getting his first cup of coffee and looking good as an NHL player. Musil’s skills imply third pairing and that job belongs (probably) to Andrew Ference for at least 2015-16. I can see him getting more games next season and then taking a job (perhaps 7D) in 2016-17.
  • D Jordan Oesterle. He was less impressive to my eye than Davidson or Musil, but he’s in the range with Musil in terms of being NHL-ready. A lot of this will be dictated by needs at the NHL level—Musil and Oesterle aren’t applying for the same jobs—but he needs a little more time.

TWO MORE YEARS OR LESS

  • C Bogdan Yakimov. He impressed in TC and then started slowly in the AHL, but turned the corner around new year’s. I think a season in Bakersfield might be enough but we may not see him again in the NHL until 2017-18. Either way, he’s a promising prospect.
  • L Anton Slepyshev. This is a flashy, experienced kid who has had success at high levels. If he signs this summer there’s little doubt an AHL audition is in order. I don’t know if it takes an entire season for him to figure out the NA game and get a cup of coffee but the club has some impressive options on skill wing.
  • D Dillon Simpson. College defender turned pro this season and didn’t get call to the NHL, so that probably comes this time next season. He’s a quick study, so could arrive earlier than later but the pipeline is beginning to deliver so there’s no hurry.
  • D Joey Laleggia. I’ve chatted with several people familiar with Laleggia and believe he may be closer than the other 2012-drafted kids. Mobile puck mover, great passer and better defensively than we’d think based on size. I can’t wait to see him.
  • R Greg Chase. His unique skill set and comfort with the physical game should make Chase a quick study in the AHL. I bet we see him play about 120 AHL games before the first recall, but this is a very promising prospect.
  • L Kale Kessy. His increase in speed opens up some options for Kessy and he showed well before the injury. Definitely a player to watch this fall.

THREE MORE YEARS OR LESS

  • L Mitchell Moroz. You’ll see plenty of negative about him this summer as we all review prospect seasons but Moroz is coming on as the season ends and playing time has been sparse this year. Luke Gazdic had three goals in his first AHL season, Moroz has five. If we had TOI we could better measure his offense but I think it unwise to write him off.
  • C Jujhar Khaira. Like Moroz, he had a tough time posting offense. Unlike Moroz, he played a lot but scored at about the same level (10 points to Moroz’ 8). I’d be more concerned about this young man’s future than Moroz, but again it’s early. Khaira’s bat is a question, no doubt about it.
  • C Marco Roy (unsigned). If he signs, I think Edmonton will give him at least two seasons in the minors to find his way. Roy is a favorite of mine because of his range of skills and the analytics connection. I hope they sign him.
  • C Kyle Platzer. I think Platzer will be more of a two-way pro player than his final OHL season implies, but he could be a very valuable addition down the line. Very hopeful we see him for 10 games or so in the AHL this spring.
  • D Ben Betker. I suspect Betker will play most or all of his entry-level deal in the minors before getting the call. Brandon Davidson’s progress might be a very good template to follow.
  • L Josh Winquist (unsigned). I like him plenty and believe he’s shown enough to earn a contract, but pegging him into the NHL is projected a little too far.

OFF THE GRID

  • D Martin Gernat. He had a poor season, beginning with a very quick demotion and then secondary minutes. He’ll have to work very hard to get back into the organization’s plans in my opinion, which is a shame because he has talent.
  • C Travis Ewanyk. We knew it draft day: He doesn’t have the bat.

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83 Responses to "A RATIONAL LOOK AT PROSPECT ETA’S"

  1. Hammers says:

    Agree with your assessment ,even as related to Leon and Nurse .With Ference & Nikitin at TC I’m expecting Nurse to be better than both of them but it could be a Marincin cut loose and that will tell us a lot . As for Leon I would play him on the wing with Lander and Purcell, showed he can play both wings so I’m not sure he goes down . Having said that both probably should go down until Thanksgiving .Pitlick should be a 13th forward getting 40+ games . Davidson deserves a shot as a 7-8 extra “D” but he could get picked up if sent down just like Fedun . Guessing at least 1 on your list doesn’t get resigned ( Hamilton ).

  2. Hammers says:

    LT are you going to list your protected players on the 50 man list , should save 1 or 2 so really should be 48 in case someone gets cut loose in Oct from one of those cap strapped teams .

  3. Yak2 says:

    Really thought Ewanyk could be a defensive, 4th line C for us down the line, ala Manny Malhotra, but man does he suck at bringing offense.

  4. Lowetide says:

    Hammers: I try to keep track of the 50-man, here’s the latest. Bunz and Tuohimaa are likely gone among RFA’s, Lain too. Hamilton is probably bubble.

    http://lowetide.ca/2015/03/31/oilers-sign-laleggia/

  5. Pouzar says:

    Not a good start for the Oesterle/Leggs pairing. Both -2 three minutes into game.

  6. Pouzar says:

    Platzer getting a nice push playing with Hamilton and Miller. Looked good on his second shift with a nice pass from the corner to set up Hamilton for a shot.

  7. Pouzar says:

    Nice rush by Miller. Walks around the defenseman and draws a hooking call.

    Jackson Houck centering Moroz/Pinno

    Seein Pageau good. Very active in the d-zone and can pass it.

  8. Pouzar says:

    Platzer on 1st PP unit

  9. Pouzar says:

    OKC down 3-0 as they give up the PP goal.

  10. Pouzar says:

    Eric Rodgers ‏@ericrsports 57s58 seconds ago
    Tonight’s #OKCBarons lines:
    Winquist-Stretch-Williams
    R.Hamilton-Platzer-Miller
    K.Jones-C.Jones-Ford
    Moroz-Houck-Pinizzotto

  11. Pouzar says:

    #OKCBarons d-pairs:
    Hunt-Pageau
    Simpson-Ludwig
    LaLeggia-Oesterle
    Bachman in net.

  12. Hammers says:

    Lowetide:
    Hammers: I try to keep track of the 50-man, here’s the latest. Bunz and Tuohimaa are likely gone among RFA’s, Lain too. Hamilton is probably bubble.

    http://lowetide.ca/2015/03/31/oilers-sign-laleggia/

    I was in Oregon so missed that article but with you only showing 3 you think are gone that means more work needs done leaving 42 . Maybe wrong but another 3 should go .I would stick with C. Hamilton plus add Fraser and either Hunt or Aulie . Basing that on signing Roy or another “C” , Slepyshev and the other unsigned draft picks and I think that takes us to 46 . Sign this years 1st plus 2 ufa’s and your back to 49 . Unless you do a 2 for 1 or 3 for 1 in a trade They have to let more than Bunz , Touhima and Lain go . This could be a problem .

  13. nelson88 says:

    McJesus with a 5 goal game. Ho Hum

  14. Numenius says:

    3-1 Islanders over Pittsburgh. Wow.

  15. Rondo says:

    Numenius,

    Buffalo lost too which could be good for the Oilers.

  16. Pouzar says:

    Rondo:
    Numenius,

    Buffalo lost toowhich could be good for the Oilers.

    How so? Saving best for last?

  17. Lowetide says:

    Pouzar: How so? Saving best for last?

    Losing tonight means they can win tomorrow without worry of letting go of No. 30 overall.

  18. Pouzar says:

    Wow Marner out tonight as well as Domi. Didn’t know that.

  19. Rondo says:

    Pouzar,

    Buff secured last place tonight, Tomorrow no pressure.

  20. Pouzar says:

    Rondo:
    Pouzar,

    Buff secured last place tonight, Tomorrow no pressure.

    Oh wow…wasn’t watching…thought BUF had it clinched before tonight.

    Freed up to play spoiler now.

    What’s the tiebreaker situation between BOS/PIT?

  21. Woodguy says:

    Yak2:
    Really thought Ewanyk could be a defensive, 4th line C for us down the line, ala Manny Malhotra, but man does he suck at bringing offense.

    Malhotra draft year 0.895pts/gm drafted 7th overall

    Ewanyk draft year 0.375pts/gm drafted 74th overall.

    The best checking centers in the NHL generally brought a lot of offence in their junior careers.

    The NHL is full of the best players in the world, and those players generally dominated at the lesser leagues.

    Drafting a forward with 0.375pts/gm is a firing offence.

    If you want to take fliers on those types of guys you sign them as FA after their last year or sign them to AHL only contracts.

  22. Pouzar says:

    Lowetide: Losing tonight means they can win tomorrow without worry of letting go of No. 30 overall.

    I had no idea. BUF was bad all year but that organized tank PHX pulled off was something else.

  23. Rondo says:

    Pouzar,

    Pitt needs to lose in regulation and Boston needs to win.

  24. gogliano says:

    Pouzar: Oh wow…wasn’t watching…thought BUF had it clinched before tonight.

    Freed up to play spoiler now.

    What’s the tiebreaker situation between BOS/PIT?

    If Pens lose and Bos gets an OT point, Pens hold the tiebreak (ROW). If BOS wins and Pens get OT point, BOS has tiebreaker (ROW tied, BOS holds edge in Head to Head play).

    PIT holds the tiebreaker against Ottawa so if PIT gets a point and BOS wins, OTT needs at least a point to knock out PIT.

  25. Pouzar says:

    Rondo:
    Pouzar,

    Pitt needs to lose in regulationand Boston needs to win.

    Thanks…a tall order but stranger things.

  26. Woodguy says:

    Pouzar: Oh wow…wasn’t watching…thought BUF had it clinched before tonight.

    Freed up to play spoiler now.

    What’s the tiebreaker situation between BOS/PIT?

    PIT has one more ROW than BOS.

    So PIT has to lose in reg and BOS to win in reg for BOS to be in and PIT to get out.

    If OTT loses in reg, PIT loses in OT/SO and BOS wins then OTT is out.

    All OTT has to do is get a point and they’re in no matter what BOS does.

    So, go BOS, go OTT and go BUF tomorrow night!

  27. Pouzar says:

    Wow…that’s one way to win.

    AM980 London News ✔ @AM980News
    OHL suspends Otters defenseman Kurtis MacDermid 8 games for his hit on Max Domi last night. Domi listed as “day to day,” will miss Game 2.

    Mike Stubbs @stubbs1290cjbk
    Mason Marchment has been suspended indefinitely by the #OHL for his hit on Mitch Marner. Kurtis MacDermid received 8 games for hit on Domi.

  28. Woodguy says:

    gogliano,

    If BOS wins and Pens get OT point, BOS has tiebreaker (ROW tied, BOS holds edge in Head to Head play).

    Thanks, I missed that in my post.

  29. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy: PIT has one more ROW than BOS.

    So PIT has to lose in reg and BOS to win in reg for BOS to be in and PIT to get out.

    If OTT loses in reg, PIT loses in OT/SO and BOS wins then OTT is out.

    All OTT has to do is get a point and they’re in no matter what BOS does.

    So, go BOS, go OTT and go BUF tomorrow night!

    Thx all

  30. Pouzar says:

    Drai vs Chase tonight folks fyi

  31. Numenius says:

    Rondo,

    Yeah, that’s right. Buffalo can now swing for the fences against Pitt without worrying about losing 30th.

    Here are the scenarios, it seems to me, correct me if I’m wrong:

    If Pitt beats Buffalo, then Pittsburgh guarantees themselves a playoff spot. In that case, they beat out Boston regardless of what Boston does.

    If Pitt loses to Buffalo in regulation, then Boston can kick them out of the playoffs only if they win their game (whether in regulation, OT, or shootout). As long as they have 2 points they’ll kick them out. 1 isn’t enough because Pitt has the tiebreaker on the OT loss scenario.

    If Pitt gets the OT loss, then Boston can still kick them out if Boston wins their game in regulation or OT, but not in the shootout. In this scenario, they’ll be tied in points and ROW, but Boston will be ahead in the standings because they beat Pitt more during the season. If Boston wins in the shootout, it isn’t enough because then they don’t have enough ROW to tie. (Edit: Also on this scenario, Ottawa has to get 1 point to keep Pitt out. If they don’t, then Ottawa is out.)

    Big stakes.

  32. gogliano says:

    Even if BOS loses, a PIT loss gives us the #15 pick if they don’t make the Conference Finals.

    Dreaming of Alex Plante…

  33. gogliano says:

    Numenius:
    Rondo,

    Yeah, that’s right. Buffalo can now swing for the fences against Pitt without worrying about losing 30th.

    Here are the scenarios, it seems to me, correct me if I’m wrong:

    If Pitt beats Buffalo, then Pittsburgh guarantees themselves a playoff spot. In that case, they beat out Boston regardless of what Boston does.

    If Pitt loses to Buffalo in regulation, then Boston can kick them out of the playoffs only if they win their game (whether in regulation, OT, or shootout). As long as they have 2 points they’ll kick them out. 1 isn’t enough because Pitt has the tiebreaker on the OT loss scenario.

    If Pitt gets the OT loss, then Boston can still kick them out if Boston wins their game in regulation or OT, but not in the shootout. In this scenario, they’ll be tied in points and ROW, but Boston will be ahead in the standings because they beat Pitt more during the season. If Boston wins in the shootout, it isn’t enough because then they don’t have enough ROW to tie.

    Big stakes.

    Yeah, this is right and corrects what I said above — BOS needs a ROW (i.e., not shootout) to win the tiebreaker if they win and pens grab a Bettman point.

    These Bettman scenarios are ridiculous btw.

  34. Pouzar says:

    gogliano:
    Even if BOS loses, a PIT loss gives us the #15 pick if they don’t make the Conference Finals.

    Wouldn’t making Conf bump them a few notches?

  35. gogliano says:

    Pouzar: Wouldn’t making Conf bump them a few notches?

    27th if they lose in the CF (other losing team grabs 28th by virtue of having more points).

  36. Ryan says:

    Woodguy: Malhotra draft year 0.895pts/gm drafted 7th overall

    Ewanyk draft year 0.375pts/gm drafted 74th overall.

    The best checking centers in the NHL generally brought a lot of offence in their junior careers.

    The NHL is full of the best players in the world, and those players generally dominated at the lesser leagues.

    Drafting a forward with 0.375pts/gm is a firing offence.

    If you want to take fliers on those types of guys you sign them as FA after their last year or sign them to AHL only contracts.

    Hallelujah. Agreed.

  37. G Money says:

    *** ANOTHER NERD ALERT ***

    Where I look at the correlations from last year to this year of a handful of fancy(ish)stats.

    If you like charts, you’ll like this post.
    If you like charts with correlations, you’ll love this post.
    If you like charts with correlations and distributions, you’re gonna lose your f*ckin’ mind!!!

    https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/04/10/predictive-variables-extravaganza-part-1/

    P.S. And if charts scare you, stay away!

  38. kinger_OIL says:

    G – so that points total: the R-Squared from points in previous year to next year is 55%? Am I reading that right? Thought it would be higher: is it maybe becasue you always get a team or 2 that sh&ts the bed, and/or teams that go super-nova relative to previous year from one year to another?

    I’ve always maintained that the best predictor of next year is this years points total.

  39. G Money says:

    kinger_OIL,

    That’s correct. I think it’s three things:

    – Some bad teams get better, one or two a lot better
    – Some good teams get worse, one or two a lot worse
    – There’s a lot of random variation that goes into where you actually finish in any given year (and the ‘lot better’ and ‘lot worse’ are often exactly that)

    If there’s one thing looking at sports statistics (any sport, not just hockey – see e.g. Scorecasting, Mathletics) makes clear, it is that random variation plays a much larger part in the outcomes of sportsing than we ever want to admit.

  40. kinger_OIL says:

    G Money,

    So the OIL could hope for that variation meaning they go super-nova (say 15% chance), but likely these points this year is a good predictor of how they will do next year. Because of course, they can’t get any worse.

  41. Woogie63 says:

    Tough decision for a Russian boy to give up millions in the KHL, to make a $100,000 in the AHL.

  42. Lowetide says:

    Leon Draisaitl made a great play, picks up an assist.

  43. gr8one says:

    Lowetide:
    Leon Draisaitl made a great play, picks up an assist.

    It was a great looking rush, really looked like a man among boys. Did you catch the the Bruce Hamilton interview during intermission? I thought his comments about Drai were interesting.

  44. Klima's_Bucket says:

    gr8one,

    I missed it. What did Hamilton say about Doctor Drai?

  45. flyfish1168 says:

    Woogie63:
    Tough decision for a Russian boy to give up millions in the KHL, to make a $100,000 in the AHL.

    KHL is having money problems so this may help.

  46. G Money says:

    kinger_OIL,

    Sad but true. The only realistic positive news is that PDO. Basically no correlation year to year. Of course, the Oilers have to address goaltending to help move that needle in a big way – I suspect regression to the mean works least well when you count on it.

    Assuming they do that, a nice jump in points is likely in the cards.

  47. gr8one says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    gr8one,

    I missed it. What did Hamilton say about Doctor Drai?

    When asked his thoughts on Drai, rather than just pile on the praise he kind of challenged Drai saying he needed to skate and use his speed with intensity(paraphrasing, of course) to be the dominant player he knows he can be.

    It was all still positive but I just found it a little interesting.

    Man he looked great…he was skating and dominant in that second period.

  48. gr8one says:

    It looks like Victoria has Chase playing the point on the PP….at least that one.

  49. Clay says:

    I often wonder, had MPS been given proper time to develop in the minors, if he wouldn’t be a legit “Fernando Pisani” for this team now. Right there with Lander as 2/3 of a real good third line. Or even a Detroit “4th” line in the vein of Maltby-Draper.

  50. Tire Fire says:

    G Money:
    kinger_OIL,

    Sad but true.The only realistic positive news is that PDO.Basically no correlation year to year.Of course, the Oilers have to address goaltending to help move that needle in a big way – I suspect regression to the mean works least well when you count on it.

    Assuming they do that, a nice jump in points is likely in the cards.

    I think what you mean to say is that S% will not change from year to year. There is no evidence it will change. None.

    So sayeth our chosen one: His Trolliness, Pope Fox.

  51. Hammers says:

    What’s the chances of getting Meire / Halfax or even Merkley / Rockets if Pitts pick is 16th plus our 2nd as both are centers especially if McT takes Hanifin with our 1st . Maybe we end up with Debrusk just for the Pitt pick . I’m guessing if the Pitt pick ends up 16-18 it won’t be used in a trade putting more heat on Marincin and one of our 2nd’s for the “D” trade bait .

  52. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    You all probably know by now where I stand on Nikitin and Ference, but if they’re getting paid 7.75M to be 6/7 D as you suggest, LT (and I’m not disagreeing that that’s where they are based on ability), the men who signed them to those deals need to take a good, long, hard look in the mirror. I don’t mind Purcell but also think another 4.5M for a 3rd line winger is too much. Oilers have too many holes to fill and not enough cap space to do so without clearing these three large contracts out, even partially.

  53. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    Clay:
    I often wonder, had MPS been given proper time to develop in the minors, if he wouldn’t be a legit “Fernando Pisani” for this team now.Right there with Lander as 2/3 of a real good third line.Or even a Detroit “4th” line in the vein of Maltby-Draper.

    He has more speed than Pisani ever had. I like Radek Dvorak as what he could have been (and still could be)–the Edmonton version, not the 30 goal scoring one. 15G and 40 pt ceiling but speed to burn and size (though not physical). Would love him on the third line.

  54. stush18 says:

    Regarding your prospect list LT, im really hoping gernat somehow figures it out. Hes an attractive player and has skill and size. Unfortunately he doesnt seem to be able to put it together.

    Also, do you think we have room for both parkarinen and miller? Seems we will either havone or the other.

  55. Lowetide says:

    stush18:
    Regarding your prospect list LT, im really hoping gernat somehow figures it out. Hes an attractive player and has skill and size. Unfortunately he doesnt seem to be able to put it together.

    Also, do you think we have room for both parkarinen and miller? Seems we will either havone or the other.

    Me too, I really liked Gernat as an Oil King. I think both Miller and Pakarinen are here next year (well OKC and here)

  56. pocession charge says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”: He has more speed than Pisani ever had. I like Radek Dvorak as what he could have been (and still could be)–the Edmonton version, not the 30 goal scoring one. 15G and 40 pt ceiling but speed to burn and size (though not physical). Would love him on the third line.

    MPS needs to become more physical in order to be successful in the NHL. That doesn’t mean crazy body checks and fighting, but a guy who can win board battles, go to the front of the net, not shy away from contact, and agitate the opponent with some stick work. He doesn’t have enough offence to warrant the lack of physicality.

  57. Ducey says:

    Gernat is one of those toolsy outfield prospects who tease you but rarely learn to hit the ball. He needs to become better defensively and much stronger.
    ———————-
    So Kris Letang out of the season. There now may be a team with a worse D corp that the Oil. Taylor Chorney played 16 minutes for the Pens tonight. I guess we should all apologise to Pendergast for criticising his 2005 draft.
    ———————-
    Perron with one assist in his last 11 gp. That trade is going to look some kind of wonderful if BUF can pull off the upset.
    ———————-
    If BOS misses the playoffs should the Oilers grab one or both of Chiarelli and Julien? They likely get fired.

  58. Marc says:

    Ducey,

    Buffalo has actually scored 3+ goals in 7 of their last 9 games and they are going against a 5 man D on it’s second game in two days. And one of those D is Taylor Chorney. And Buffalo’s fans will actually be cheering for them for the first time in a month. There is a decent chance that Buffalo pull out this game.

    The bigger concern is Boston. That loss to Florida was an absolute killer. They are on the road at a Tampa team that are 6-3-1 over the last 10 games. Our only hope is that Tampa take their foot off the gas a bit because they have nothing to play for. They can only overtake Montreal to win the division if Montreal get upset by Toronto, and the division winner’s reward will probably be Ottawa (6-2-2 over last 10 games) instead of Detroit (3-4-3 over last 10 games).

  59. sliderule says:

    gr8one,

    Leon doesn’t have the endurance to play that kind of game.

    He tried it with Oil and shortly into shift he would be skating in sand

  60. Woodguy says:

    Ducey,

    If BOS misses the playoffs should the Oilers grab one or both of Chiarelli and Julien? They likely get fired.

    I’d pass on both.

    Chiarelli shit the bed on the Seguin trade badly and probably set the team wandering as a middle power for the foreseeable future. As bad as MacT has been, he hasn’t done that.

    Julien hates putting young players in important positions more than even Tippett and that’s the core of this team.

  61. Woodguy says:

    Marc,

    Agreed.

    PIT also has cap issues and can only ice 5 Dmen right now.

    PIT’s Dmen sorted by 5v5 TOI last game:

    Paul Martin 26:41
    Ian Cole 25:19
    Rob Scuderi 24:03
    Ben Lovejoy 21:27
    Taylor Chorney 16:42

    Wow.

    Paul Martin and bleh.

    Those boys will be pretty damned tired after having played yesterday as well.

    We have to also hope that Fleury remembers that he’s Fleury and that this is a pressure game.

    There’s a chance for BUF for sure.

  62. sliderule says:

    Woodguy,

    The oilers seem to draft players good field no bat.

  63. Woodguy says:

    sliderule:
    Woodguy,

    The oilers seem to draft players good field no bat.

    Offence was the concern when PRV was drafted.

    Hall, RNH, Eberle, have bats.

    Yak seems to have found his.

    Lander will never hit for power but he seems to have been able to figure out how to place his hits for singles and the odd 2 bagger.

    The problem on this team isn’t the forwards.

    Its the Dmen who fail help provide the forwards with the majority of shot attempts, which would lead to more goals and more wins.

  64. Woodguy says:

    Yak’s been invited to try out for RUS’ WC team:

    Slava Malamud @SlavaMalamud · 15m 15 minutes ago
    Sergei Bobrovsky, Nail Yakupov, Anton Khudobin among the NHLers called to Team Russia in the run-up to the Worlds #CBJ #Canes #Oilers

    Igor Eronko ‏@IgorEronko 41m41 minutes ago Mārupe, Latvija
    #Oilers’ F Nail Yakupov won’t have a guaranteed roster spot in team Russia at the #IHWC, invited on a TO basis

  65. gogliano says:

    Marc:
    Ducey,

    Buffalo has actually scored 3+ goals in 7 of their last 9 games and they are going against a 5 man D on it’s second game in two days. And one of those D is Taylor Chorney. And Buffalo’s fans will actually be cheering for them for the first time in a month. There is a decent chance that Buffalo pull out this game.

    See, e.g., Ian Cole and a second PIT D get passed by Michael Grabner on a simple breakout last night for the 3-1 goal. It was a simple rush up the boards from the NYI’s end, 1 on 2, and Grabner gets past both of them, makes it a breakaway, and puts in the 3-1 goal (lol Fleury).

  66. Marc says:

    A propos of nothing, if anyone is looking for a little excitement with their cornflakes this morning, look for a stream of the Grand National.

    It’s the UK’s most prestigious horse race and it’s one hell of a spectacle. The race is just over 4 miles long and is a steeple chase, so the horses have to do 30 jumps over the course of the race. There are 40 horses entered this year and maybe half of them will make it to the finish line still carrying their rider.

    The race starts at 4:15 UK time, so 9:15AM in Alberta.

  67. sliderule says:

    Woodguy,

    I was thinking picks after first round.

    When you see Sens picks like Hoffman and Stone and compare them to Khaira ,Pitlick and others I would say we are missing something.

    Stone didn’t get much time in his draft year but I think Hoffman was picked in his second year.after a mundane first year.

    There is more to drafting than boxes as players who are second round and later quite often don’t get ice time.

    You have to be able to project their development.

  68. godot10 says:

    pocession charge: MPS needs to become more physical in order to be successful in the NHL.That doesn’t mean crazy body checks and fighting, but a guy who can win board battles, go to the front of the net, not shy away from contact, and agitate the opponent with some stick work.He doesn’t have enough offence to warrant the lack of physicality.

    Paajarvi is only 23. He has 11 goals and 27 points in 32 games in the AHL. Nyquist didn’t have his breakout season in Detroit till 24. The Sedins really didn’t find their stride in the NHL till 24.

    At this point, he is a player in need of the right situation. St. Louis is not it since they are loaded with skilled forwards, and big physical bottom six forwards.

  69. SwedishPoster says:

    If we needed further proof how important D is Pens collapse provide just that. Since they started to get injuries on the backend they’ve fallen apart completely. This is despite having what’s probably the best and 2nd to 5th(depending on preference) best centers in the world. And a pretty good #3C on top of that.
    Earlier years they’ve managed to get to the playoffs with a decent margin despite a bunch of injuries to their top 2 centers, but not having an NHL level D has them crashing down.
    Not even Crosby and Malkin can carry a team without proper D-men.

    The obvious point being not even winning the McDavid lottery will get us anywhere unless we fix our defensive group.

  70. Woodguy says:

    sliderule:
    Woodguy,

    I was thinking picks after first round.

    When you see Sens picks like Hoffman and Stone and compare them to Khaira,Pitlick and othersI would say we are missing something.

    Stone didn’t get much time in his draft year but I think Hoffman was picked in his second year.after a mundane first year.

    There is more to drafting than boxes as players who are second round and later quite often don’t get ice time.

    You have to be able to project their development.

    I agree with this entirely.

    I’ve long been a big proponent of pts/gm with taking the situation in mind.

    Mike Parkatti is pretty damn good at this, but he only shares his black box with the Oilers.

    Hoffman in his 1st draft year (when he wasn’t picked) still put up .837pts/gm which is pretty good.

    When you look at his situation, he was on a crummy team just starting their rebuild.

    Stone has .718pts/.gm in his draft year.

    He was injured his draft year, which hurt his stock some.

    Still, he put up 0.696 in his draft -1 year and was 6’2″ when draft eligible.

    You’d hope the Oilers, being WHL experts and all, would identify these under valued players.

    These guys and undersized guys scoring 1pt/gm is exactly who you take fliers on in the later rounds.

    I think the Oilers have improved a bit on this and point to Greg Chase as evidence.

    Also,

    Hoffman spend 242 in the AHL and Stone spent 91 games there.

  71. book¡je says:

    Rondo:
    Pouzar,

    Pitt needs to lose in regulationand Boston needs to win.

    I think if Pittsburgh loses in OT and Boston wins, then Boston would finish ahead of Pittsburgh. Both would have the same # of points and wins so it goes to the next tiebreaker which is the record between the two teams this season. Here is the tiebreaker rules

    “3. The greater number of points earned in games between the tied clubs. If two clubs are tied, and have not played an equal number of home games against each other, points earned in the first game played in the city that had the extra game shall not be included. If more than two clubs are tied, the higher percentage of available points earned in games among those clubs, and not including any “odd” games, shall be used to determine the standing.”

    Now, if you go to the head to head (http://penguins.nhl.com/club/teamvsteamdetails.htm?season=20142015&team=BOS), its confusing, but the first game in Pittsburgh would not count, so over the other two games, Boston would have 3 points and Pittsburgh 2 points, so Boston wins the tiebreaker.

  72. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    SwedishPoster,

    Right, so let’s hope the stars align and Pittsburgh loses In regulation and Boston wins in regulation

    Then Pittsburgh wins the lottery, meaning we pick McDavid 1st and Hanifin 4th.

    Hall-McDavid-Yakupov
    Pouliot-RNH-Eberle
    Paajarvi-Draisaitl-pitlick
    Yakimov-Lander-khaira

    Nurse-hanifin
    Klefbom-fayne
    Marincin-schultz

    One can dream a bit

  73. book¡je says:

    Boston is going to make the playoffs. Then the Pittsburgh pick, with a 1% chance, is going to win the lottery. The Oilers are going to pick 1st and 4th.

    The Hockey Gords owe us this!

  74. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    book¡je,

    Yes, see post directly above. Although the Hockey gods owe the Oilers nothing. They may owe the fans but the men behind the curtain have earned every bit of this predicament.

  75. Numenius says:

    book¡je: I think if Pittsburgh loses in OT and Boston wins, then Boston would finish ahead of Pittsburgh.

    In this case, Boston needs an ROW win. A shootout win isn’t enough because then Pitt would have more ROW’s. Ottawa also needs to get 1 point to avoid their own elimination.

  76. russ99 says:

    Woodguy: Offence was the concern when PRV was drafted.

    Hall, RNH, Eberle, have bats.

    Yak seems to have found his.

    Lander will never hit for power but he seems to have been able to figure out how to place his hits for singles and the odd 2 bagger.

    The problem on this team isn’t the forwards.

    Its the Dmen who fail help provide the forwards with the majority of shot attempts, which would lead to more goals and more wins.

    It’s both. Other that Pouliot, who you can call a first line player at this point, none of the veteran forwards are putting up enough offense.

    There’s no balance.

    There’s the three kids and Pouliot and Yak coming back, but also not scoring enough and Lander who could develop into a good two-way player and our decent 4th shutdown line.

    Outside of that we have Purcell who’s output isn’t worth his cap hit number and various goons and AHL players.

    Look at the teams that made the playoffs as to what else you need from your forwards…

    Not saying defense doesn’t need a major overhaul, but by no means are the forward group “done” in respect to competing for a playoff spot.

    And what’s worse, there’s nobody in the system who can realistically step in and give us that extra offense other than maybe Draisaitl 2-3 years down the road, so it’s going to have to come from outside.

  77. kinger_OIL says:

    A great complimentary piece to this excellent work would be: “A rational look at expectations for next year’s Oiler’s point total” (With a way better title than that!)

  78. Kmart99 says:

    BOS holds tiebreaker over PITT.

    If PITT gets OTL/SOL pt and BOS wins… Then Boston wins the tie breaker.
    PITT holds tie breaker over OTTAWA. So Ottawa needs to finish with more pts than Pitt.

  79. Genjutsu says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”:
    SwedishPoster,

    Right, so let’s hope the stars align and Pittsburgh loses In regulation and Boston wins in regulation

    Then Pittsburgh wins the lottery, meaning we pick McDavid 1st and Hanifin 4th.

    Hall-McDavid-Yakupov
    Pouliot-RNH-Eberle
    Paajarvi-Draisaitl-pitlick
    Yakimov-Lander-khaira

    Nurse-hanifin
    Klefbom-fayne
    Marincin-schultz

    One can dream a bit

    Why does everyone want Noah to play his off side. There is a large amount of evidence that its not a good idea.

    Granted I haven’t seen him play much outside of some international moments, however every time I have seen him play its been on the left side.

    Also that’s a ton of stone hands on the wings in the bottom 6. Putting Leon with plugs who can’t score is not ideal IMHO.

  80. godot10 says:

    Genjutsu: Why does everyone want Noah to play his off side.There is a large amount of evidence that its not a good idea.

    Elite skating and passing tends to mean D who are above average don’t have much trouble adjusting.

    Mostly left shot examples, because right shots tend to always end up on the right side.

    Savard and Lapointe could play both side. Orr played the right side. Brad Park played both sides. Mark Howe. Scott Niedermayer. Jay Bouwmeester. Salming. Pronger and Chara play both sides.

    Klefbom, Nurse, Marincin, and Hanifin are all good enough skaters to play either side. Take the two that play it the best.

    Detroit is looking for a right shot D, but at the deadline they would have taken Phaneuf over Zidlicky if the Phaneuf dead had not fell through.

    Right shot D are nice to have. Having good D is more important than which way they shoot.

    If you are choosing from a huge pool like Team Canada, then one can be fussy.

  81. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    Genjutsu,

    Thanks for lumping me in with everyone. People have discussed on several occasions how Hanifin is is capable of playing both sides.

    My lineup above was a pipe dream scenario where the Oilers get McDavid. At that point Draisaitl becomes the 3rd line C. Plugs is a harsh term to describe Pitlick and Paajarvi. They haven’t arrived yet. If Leon is so good, he can drive offense himself.

    In short, I disagree with you on your comment.

  82. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    Tire Fire,

    Haha
    Beautiful area. However be warned many shops and restaurants close along that stretch in the off-season. So look into that first. Positano is beautiful.

    If you don’t mind a bit of colder weather, Tuscany won’t shut for the off-season and has amazing food and art and culture. So maybe a mix of the two? I’d send you to Cinqueterre but it’s going to be closed. Have a look around and then see what suits your tastes best.

    Also, as cliche as it is, Lake Como is romantic as hell. Although it’s not cheap.

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