STONE ALONE

1GP, 2.00 .961. THAT is a stunning line any time, but for an NHL debut? Get outta here. Laurent Brossoit stepped into the best league in the world and stoned a good offensive team for most of the night. His mates showed feet of clay and the win went out the door on the patented banana-peel play we’ve seen so many times.

Le sigh, but let’s not lose the big story.

Heh. The thing about goalies is this: You never know. The one thing we learned last night—Brossoit isn’t going to wither—has value for the organization heading into next season. No, they can’t rely on him as a starter, but the club can include him in the group of four (two NHL and two AHL) goalies who could help the big club next year. I suspect he’ll be the AHL starter (with Scrivens as the NHL backup) and the additions (Antti Niemi and Matt O’Connor) will all have decent to good pedigree.

Nothing more to say because Nelson said it all.

GOALIES 2015-16

  1. Antti Niemi $4.5M (est)
  2. Ben Scrivens $2.3M
  3. Laurent Brossoit $.925M
  4. Matt O’Connor $.900M (est)

Does that look about right? I’m not certain it’ll take $4.5M but it could be more (takes two to tango). If the cap is $70M, this depth chart devoting $6.9M of the total is about 10%. Very dear.

NOAH HANIFIN VERSUS RYAN WHITNEY?

I saw Hanifin very good in his last game, brilliant thread-the-needle pass of significant length being the highlight. I don’t know that he’s the third best name in the draft but I don’t know that he isn’t, either. His skill set appears to be a perfect fit for the Oilers but one question I do have is how the Oilers feel about him. Jim Matheson is very connected and his recent comments on the subject may be a tell:

  • Matty: Several people who know say Boston College’s Noah Hanifin has a great deal of Jay Bouwmeester in him, but others wonder if he could be closer to Ryan Whitney, who went to Boston University and was picked fifth overall by Pittsburgh in 2002, the same year that Bouwmeester went No. 3 to Florida. Source

When Tambellini was GM, Oilers leaks dried up and this kind of thing went dark. Now, nuggets and  bread crumbs are back and we see things like this one. Now, in truth Ryan Whitney was a helluva amateur player, but if you’re going to frame an issue in a negative way, telling Oilers nation that Hanifin reminds you of Ryan Whitney is a good way to do it. Why? Whitney cost Lubo and had significant injury problems, which takes away from the fact he was an excellent NHL prospect. When comparisons like those above are made, I always march right back to the beginning and look at what was being said about a player before his draft. Here’s the bottom line on Whitney before his draft:

  • Red Line Report: May have most dynamic upside of any d-man. Source
  • Red Line Report: He has phenomenal physical tools. He’s 6-4, 197 with a lean, live body and easily the best passing skills of any defenseman in the bunch. But he’s not real physical, his competitiveness is a question mark, and he just doesn’t make decisions quick enough in his own zone, leading to some bad giveaways. Source

Does that sound like Noah Hanifin? I don’t think it does, beyond the passing ability and size. I haven’t read about lack of competitiveness, I haven’t read about slow decision-making. It’s very important that we keep these comparisons in perspective. I’ll have an updated top 60 for the 2015 draft tomorrow morning.

HAS NELSON DONE ENOUGH?

I’d hire him for next season with the idea of continued development for some of these youngsters. If the 2015-16 sees Anton Lander, Martin Marincin and (say) Tyler Pitlick added to the actual NHL group, and Leon plus Darnell come along mid-season or later? That’s a solid investment on a season that will no doubt be outside the playoffs because of roster weakness in important places.

If Todd McLellan comes in, the focus will no doubt change from development to winning and I don’t think Scotty Bowman could get turn this crazy bird around in a season. The McLellan way is also likely tied to big game hunting at G and D (Niemi and Mike Green, as examples) and as I mentioned yesterday it’s a bad road to go for this team (they don’t have access to the best free agents and overpay for the middle ones).

I don’t think Nelson gets the job. It’ll go to a more experienced coach.

tomei10

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy Friday as we gear up for the weekend. 10 this morning, TSN 1260, scheduled to appear:

  • Steve Lansky, Big Mouth Sports. We’ll talk about the NHL playoffs and the draft.
  • Sunil Agnihotri, The SuperFan. Brossoit’s debut, the OKC Barons, the summer and the draft.
  • Alex Thomas, Oilers Rig. Frozen Four, Oilers season, draft.
  • Paul Almeida, SSE. We’ll talk about the summer and the draft.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Friday, bitches!

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160 Responses to "STONE ALONE"

  1. dustrock says:

    Never seen Hanifin compared to Whitney in any scouting report. That’s coming from the horse’s mouth then, and really hoping they’re not leaning away from him.

    When you get a comp of “Doughty & Suter”, McDonagh, Niedermayer, even Jay-Bo, those are players the Oilers need.

    You draft for the future success of the organization, not the 2015-16 season. Hanifin could be our #1 d-man for 15 years.

    On the subject of Nelson – I get that this was an especially meaningless game as both teams had nothing to play for, but the inconsistency with this team is so frustrating. They beat an LA team they had no business beating.

    Then they pull up a youngster to start at home and everyone mails it in, 2 days later.

    They haven’t had a coach yet, including Krueger and Nelson, who can motivate these guys on a game-to-game basis.

  2. CurtisS says:

    When Sauffer asked Woodlief not long ago about the Hanafin and Bouwmester comparison Kyle told Bov to aim higher.

  3. Doubting Olive says:

    Really liked LB’s economy of effort last night. Was noted by the commentators. Should show Jultz the difference between economy of effort and no effort.

    Noticed Niemi kicked out a lot of rebounds, but SJ was VERY good at collecting the puck.

    OK, so the Hall narrative reached new heights for me last night. It’s getting very personal from the media. Hall took advantage of a slip by the D-man at our blue line, out-paced him from behind, was pulled down, slid into the goal, penalty called. The commentators then decided to deride Hall for his reckless play. So this is it. Every time Hall does something, even a play every other player not named Teddy ‘Fleet of Feet’ Purcell would make, it’s reckless if he falls over or is penalised. I’m really not going to watch any games with the sound up from now on. Sportsnet, sort your fucking lives out.

    Have a good Friday, peeps!

  4. dustrock says:

    Do you want Hall to play like Glenn Anderson or do you want him to play it safe? Stupid question.

  5. GCW_69 says:

    I don’t mind a more experienced coach, depending on who it is. Listening to Dreger this morning in Toronto and he noted high profile free agent coaches are likely to demand a significant say in player personnel to sign and anything that reduces the power to the boys on the bus is a good thing.

    I think McClellan would be a good fit for the Oilers, and would increase the sense of urgency. Tippett, however, I would be less enthused about. Tippett’s track record with young forwards isn’t great and rightly or wrongly this team is built from the forwards back, not the defence out.

  6. G Money says:

    The comparison to Whitney may or may not be reasonable, but the actual assessment of Whitney is always going to be biased by the way he played injured.

    It wasn’t good, but you can’t play in the NHL on one leg. Whitney did, and the sad part is, he was still by far and away the best passer on D.

    What’s really useful to remember is that the 35 games he did play with two healthy feet, he was absolutely ripping it up.

    35 gp, 2 g, 25 a, 33 pts, +13, gifted pp qb, positive CorsiRel on a really bad team. Actually, he took a really bad team and made it OK. That was the last player we had that could make a genuinely good headman pass.

    If Noah Hanifin is comparable to a healthy Ryan Whitney, the Oilers cannot pass him by.

  7. su_dhillon says:

    That was an Eddie Lebec type performance last night by Brossoit, Norm and Cliff would be proud.

    There is probably no better indication of the type of season this was than the the fact the best goaltending performances came from the AHL guys.

  8. DBO says:

    What is so painful is the complete lack of faith, so it seems, that anyone has in managements ability to make the right decision anymore. How frightening is it that I wouldn’t be surprised to see “the smartest men in the room” select Crouse because we need a 3rd line two way centre. I could see them talking themselves into it.

    – Draft Hanifin, send him back to college or to the AHL for a year.
    – Try to trade for Sobotka, or just sign Roy, who holds Draisatl’s place for half a year. Then slides to win.
    – Make Nurse start in the AHL
    – Buy out one of Ference or Nikitin. Just do it. Swallow your ego and admit a mistake. We may actually believe you are as smart as you seem to believe you are if you own the mistake.
    – Do sign a solid two way defensemen, but do not overpay. There are a few options this year, and with tight cap you will get some bargains by the end of July.
    – if you can trade Schultz for something of value, you do it. Full stop.
    – Sign a solid two way player for the wing to play with Lander and Purcell (
    – Trade for a younger goalie with NHL experience, and stay the hell away from big game hunting in the voodoo land of goalies. (Lehner or Jones)

  9. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    G Money:
    The comparison to Whitney may or may not be reasonable, but the actual assessment of Whitney is always going to be biased by the way he played injured.

    It wasn’t good, but you can’t play in the NHL on one leg.Whitney did, and the sad part is, he was still by far and away the best passer on D.

    What’s really useful to remember is that the 35 games he did play with two healthy feet, he was absolutely ripping it up.

    35 gp, 2 g, 25 a, 33 pts, +13, gifted pp qb, positive CorsiRel on a really bad team.Actually, he took a really bad team and made it OK.That was the last player we had that could make a genuinely good headman pass.

    If Noah Hanifin is comparable to a healthy Ryan Whitney, the Oilers cannot pass him by.

    This.
    Oilers need so much help but a top pairing D-man is top of the list. Also, I’ve heard JayBo as the floor for Hanifin, not the closest comparable. Second half of his season he was nearly PPG

    Bob McKenzie quoted scouts as saying he skates like Niedermayer. I’m sold if the brass want to go that route.

  10. G Money says:

    dustrock,

    The teams have been notoriously inconsistent for years, that is part of the problem.

    I think last night was at least somewhat understandable.

    The LA game made sense for two reasons: it was a statement game after being embarrassed just a week before, and it was a meaningful game in that the Oilers had a chance to play spoilers against a team that has beat up on them for years now.

    Last night’s game, and tomorrow’s game, are especially meaningless, even in a lost season. SJ already out, Van already in, can’t change their fates. The Oilers have done OK against San Jose, and in any case their last game was a while ago, so any sense of embarrassment will have faded.

    Meaningless, but I do hope they put in a better effort against Van:
    – hope last night’s embarrassment is with them still
    – go out on a non-sour note in a horrifying season
    – hated division rival
    – haven’t won a game against them yet, at least salvage a small amount of the dignity you failed to against ARI or CGY

    Buuuuuuuuuuuuuuut … I’m not holding my breath.

  11. Klima's_Bucket says:

    The verbal from Matty leads me to believe the Oilers will take Strome over Hanifin.
    MacT’s depth chart for next season has Nuge, Draisaitl and Strome down the middle.
    There are visions of three scoring lines dancing through his head.
    Music. He thinks.
    All I hear is circus music.
    Flames,(spits) Canucks, (spits) & Jets (spits) all made the playoffs.
    It is time for Katz to send out the clowns.

  12. Doubting Olive says:

    I heard a rumour that Todd McLellan noticed there was a parking space with his name, next to Niemi’s in the Rexall compound. He asked MacT about it, and MacT said “yeah, I was gonna talk to you about that in a few weeks over 3 way Skype with Nelly.”

  13. G Money says:

    Except for Yak. Lord love that kid, I hope he finds the refinement to his game to really go nova next year (and hopefully still as an Oiler).

    His bad games are when he looks confused out there and makes bad decisions, but he never stops trying. Wish that would rub off on a few more of his teammates.

  14. dustrock says:

    G Money: dustrock, The teams have been notoriously inconsistent for years, that is part of the problem.I think last night was at least somewhat understandable.The LA game made sense for two reasons: it was a statement game after being embarrassed just a week before, and it was a meaningful game in that the Oilers had a chance to play spoilers against a team that has beat up on them for years now.Last night’s game, and tomorrow’s game, are especially meaningless, even in a lost season. SJ already out, Van already in, can’t change their fates. The Oilers have done OK against San Jose, and in any case their last game was a while ago, so any sense of embarrassment will have faded.Meaningless, but I do hope they put in a better effort against Van:– hope last night’s embarrassment is with them still– go out on a non-sour note in a horrifying season– hated division rival– haven’t won a game against them yet, at least salvage a small amount of the dignity you failed to against ARI or CGYBuuuuuuuuuuuuuuut … I’m not holding my breath.

    Yup, agreed. And that’s my point – I don’t know what motivates these guys.

    You get the vets like Ference and Hendricks saying “we need to apply these lessons, to be professional and consistent every night”. They aren’t talking about themselves here.

    And despite how much Nelson has done to help the careers of some young Oilers, we’ve seen some truly horrific performances (remember the Leafs game? Barf).

  15. Jon K says:

    I think there is growing legitimacy to the concern that the Oilers pass on Hanifin for Crouse.

    Within one week we have Bob talking up Crouse and Matty leaking that Hanifin is being compared to Ryan Whitney.

    Absolutely terrifying.

    The only thing I would add to your small list of similarities between Whitney and Hanifin is that shooting does not appear to be a strength for Hanifin either.

    Otherwise, it seems an asinine comparison to me. Hanifin’s skating puts him in a different class as a defender.

  16. HiddenDarts says:

    Missed the game last night, but did see the Kings play. They went ice cold at precisely the wrong time. Sad to see the falling of a giant, but I had a sense it was going to happen when I watched a game a month ago against Nashville. My Kings-fan buddy was all into it, but what I saw was a team nursing a one to nothing lead for nearly 45 minutes before Nashville scored twice in 2 minutes. It was absolutely agonizing hockey. Watching them attempt to come back from a two goal lead last night was almost as rough.

    The playoffs will be funny. I can’t see the Flames going more than one round, but let’s be real: you can count the people who thought they were going to make the playoffs on one hand. The team does have a tremendous relationship with the leprechaun, and apparently has sat on a helluva lot of horseshoes.

    What an anomaly this year is. 96+ points to make the playoffs? That’s insane. I wonder which team was giving away points by the handful in the Western Conference.

  17. G Money says:

    Klima’s_Bucket: The verbal from Matty leads me to believe the Oilers will take Strome over Hanifin.
    MacT’s depth chart for next season has Nuge, Draisaitl and Strome down the middle.
    There are visions of three scoring lines dancing through his head.
    Music. He thinks.
    All I hear is circus music.

    That’s the one good thing about this year and drafting no lower than #4 – unless MacT goes SGITR and drafts Crouse or something, it doesn’t matter who he picks, he’s getting a good one. I’m fine if we end up with Strome or Marner, their scoring is off the charts too.

  18. Aitch says:

    DBO,

    If Hanifin is in the minors along with Nurse, and Schultz along with Ference or Nikitin are who’s going to play along the blue?

    Klefbom-Fayne
    Marincin-Ference/Nikitn
    ?? – ??

    I get that you’re advocating getting a two-way defender, but that only fills one hole, and I’m not convinced that we have anyone else capable of filling the other top 6 spot on a regular basis.

  19. Yeti says:

    Great work, Broissoit. Hopefully in two years you’ll be ready to contribute full time.

    Woodguy – really sorry to do this, but I presume you remember our bet about Calgary making the playoffs? As the loser, you owe me a poem – set at the Calgary stampede – about how much you love the Flames. To be posted here.

    As a good sport, despite winning the bet, I promise to nonetheless record and post the song I was going contribute about yourself and fancy stats.

  20. Pouzar says:

    Some are waaaaaaaay over thinking Hanifin imo.
    I think MacT could be too.

  21. thejonrmcleod says:

    If the Leafs are coveting Strome and if the Oilers are drafting one spot in front of them, what would be a reasonable ask to switch spots?

    Edit: To clarify, I’m thinking that if the Oilers are drafting 3rd and the Leafs 4th, switch picks in a trade, let the Leafs take Strome, and then take Hanifin.

  22. Caribbeerman says:

    Lowetide I can’t see, so long as MacTavish is the GM, Nelson not getting the job. 1) No Head Coach worth his salt is coming to Edmonton with this roster and MacTavish as the GM – none! 2) MacTavish has to play the safe bet with Nelson, with the success that he has enjoyed, rather than risk another head Coach coming in and not having immediate success.

    Personally I think that Nelson is exactly the type of coach this group need right now – he is a developmental coach and he can grow with his developing players. Should they (when they) get to the playoffs a couple times without success you can argue then the need to hire a coach who can get you over the hump. It some ways he is like Ron Low – players like him and he builds a good culture and foundation for the group.

    Now if they fire MacTavish then all bets are off on who the Head Coach will be…but I don’t think we see that this summer.

  23. russ99 says:

    As I said on the other blog, I think it’s time to move Scrivens.

    We need a real #1 goalie plus Bachman and Broissoit look ready to compete for backup duties, and the other one can start in Bakersfield.

  24. PhrankLee says:

    HiddenDarts: What an anomaly this year is. 96+ points to make the playoffs? That’s insane.

    It’s exactly what the league doesn’t want. That’s not parity.

    11 teams breaking or having the chance to break 100 speaks to how weak the bottom half of the league is.

    Desertification zones are bad for the game.

    Once the bottom half of the league improves making 100 points is unbelievably difficult.

  25. G Money says:

    DBO,

    Yes. The most painful part of watching this team is not the incompetence on the ice – in fact, there are some terrific young players out there – it is watching the incompetence off the ice.

    I think your list of todo’s is accurate.

    Realistically, any plan for improvement at this point is a two year plan (just like it was last summer, since we made zero or even negative progress despite the youngsters).

    MacT needs to add a goalie and re-sign/replace one competent stopgap 2C (Roy or equiv) and one competent defender to replace Petry this summer. The winger to my mind is optional (might still be worth seeing what we have in Hero).

    Schultz needs to sign at money in line with this performance i.e. third pairing D, or be dealt for his Norris potential elsewhere. He can be competently replaced by any of the youngsters being auditioned. Addition by subtraction.

    I doubt Nikitin or Ference go anywhere this year. Ference needs to retire next year, hopefully by then it will be as obvious to him and MacT as it is to everyone else that he’s completely done.

  26. russ99 says:

    Klima’s_Bucket,

    Yep.

    I’m calling it – no playoffs until the 3 scoring lines pipe dream bubble is burst.

  27. G Money says:

    thejonrmcleod,

    What would you ask from them in return that they would realistically give up? (knowing full well that if such a trade offer were made, its a clear signal that the Oilers want Hanifin and they, the Leafs, probably get Strome as a result anyway).

  28. Klima's_Bucket says:

    G Money,

    I really like Strome and Marner too but I would prefer a top pairing Hanifin.
    I don’t want to see any of the three playing in the NHL next year.
    Hopefully MacT learns from his Draisaitl debacle this year.

  29. Doubting Olive says:

    Jon K:
    I think there is growing legitimacy to the concern that the Oilers pass on Hanifin for Crouse.

    Within one week we have Bob talking up Crouse and Matty leaking that Hanifin is being compared to Ryan Whitney.

    Absolutely terrifying.

    The only thing I would add to your small list of similarities between Whitney and Hanifin is that shooting does not appear to be a strength for Hanifin either.

    Otherwise, it seems an asinine comparison to me. Hanifin’s skating puts him in a different class as a defender.

    I called this a couple of weeks ago when I first heard Bob sing the praises of Crouse. I remember posting “they wouldn’t, would they?”

    Not that I wouldn’t take Crouse with a lower pick, but I hope they aren’t thinking of trading down for him, unless the return was huge.

  30. Klima's_Bucket says:

    thejonrmcleod,

    I would ask that the Leafs include Kadri to move up one spot.
    I would hope that the Oilers would include Jultz.

  31. Rational Zealot says:

    Evaluating a player based on who their comparables are is a fool’s gambit. It tells you exactly nothing about the player. What’s better a poor version of Paul Coffey or a better version of Ryan Whitney? It all depends on what you mean by “poor” or “better.” The Coffey and Whitney qualifiers add nothing to the conversation. Indeed, they detract from it by lending a very false precision to the evaluation. The fact that scouts regularly talk like this shows how little their opinion should be considered. Even if their observations are astute they aren’t good enough thinkers to evaluate their own observations.

    They do it so that the audience can imagine the player but the player they are imagining is not the player that is being described.

    This team needs what it has always needed: manna from heaven. For all the talk of the percentages bouncing back on Calgary they earned that victory against the Kings last night, and they did it on the back of fourth round pick Johnny Goudreau. The Senators are on the verge of making the playoffs on the back of sixth round pick Mark Stone.

    It doesn’t matter if you have the first overall pick if fourth and sixth round picks are better than those players.

    The rebuild failed when Yakupov and Schultz turned out to be what they are instead of what we hoped they would be.

    Now that that has happened, there is no plan that can be counted on to work. You have to do what they should have always done. Put the best team they can out each year, leave kids in the minors as long as you can, and hope for the best.

  32. 719 says:

    Petry with a 6 game point streak, playing 20 minutes or more a night.

    Dubnyk one of the best goalies in the league.

    Its arguable MacT gave away a competent 2 way C in Horcoff.

    We have seen the enemy and he is us!

  33. oilgreg says:

    Man, after looking competitive against the Kings, the Oilers showed a lot of weaknesses last night. A few thoughts;

    1. Nuge is this team’s MVP. They sure missed him last night.
    2. Hall needs to be on the wing. I would guess that if Yak2 was healthy, they would have brought him up to replace RNH.
    3. Yak, Pitlick and maybe Lander looked like the only forwards that pushed the play in a positive direction last night.
    4. The D was bad, and the best of the bad were Klefbom, Marincin and the two AHL guys (musil and davidson).
    5. Two good, experienced defensemen are needed for next year to go along with Fayne, Klefbom and Marincin if this team is going to have a chance. NYI did this. The older vets need to be culled.
    6. Schultz needs to play 15 minutes a night, not 25.
    7. If Driasaitl, Nurse and Brossoit can help the team win next year, they should play. Those people who say they need 20 games or a full season in the AHL are off target. If you can push the play, you should be in the NHL. If you need to be protected in zone starts and match-ups like Draisaitl was this season, then you shouldn’t.
    8. Brossoit is better than Scrivens. He covers more next, is better positionally, and has better reactions/reflexes. He is confident, and comes with a quality resume.
    9. The WHL is run like a professional league, so Brossoit has SEVEN years of experience.
    10. A Niemi ( competent vet ) and Brossoit tandem would provide quality tending for the 2015/16 season. Anything less = lottery pick.
    11. While they likely miss out on the two ‘generational’ players, Hanifin just may be the guy they need to push the team in a positive direction (along with Nurse, Klefbom and even Marincin) when it comes time to move into the new arena.

  34. alice13 says:

    Well if you’re the Leafs you ask yourself, “What should we give up to avoid having to pick Noah Hanifin?”

    The answer is probably zero.

  35. 719 says:

    I like Hanifin a lot, but would not be sad if we took Strome.

    The Oilers might be playing some gamemanship, they know the Leafs want Strome, so talk him up and talk Hanifin down, it may make Nonis want to trade something to move up (Kadri?Phaneuf? not sure who MacT wants).

  36. 719 says:

    Rational Zealot:

    The rebuild failed when Yakupov and Schultz turned out to be what they are instead of what we hoped they would be.

    Well said

  37. thejonrmcleod says:

    G Money,

    It depends how badly the Leafs want Strome. If you’re the Oilers, you could always pretend like you have a deal with another team for the 3rd overall.

    I think I’d be content with the Leafs’ 2nd round pick.

  38. Магия 10 says:

    Sabre’s are featuring a Fan Appreciation Weekend tonight and tomorrow. One would think they know what their fans would not appreciate.

  39. pboy says:

    You see it a lot more in the NBA and NFL but if a team is dying for Strome (Leafs) there could be an opportunity for the Oilers to deal there pick and move down and get an asset back for giving the Leafs the guarantee of getting “their guy”. What would the Leafs have that the Oilers covet?

  40. thejonrmcleod says:

    alice13:
    Well if you’re the Leafs you ask yourself, “What should we give up to avoid having to pick Noah Hanifin?”

    The answer is probably zero.

    Not if Matty has scared the Leafs with his comparison of Hanifin to Whitney. 🙂

  41. pboy says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    G Money,

    I really like Strome and Marner too but I would prefer a top pairing Hanifin.
    I don’t want to see any of the three playing in the NHL next year.
    Hopefully MacT learns from his Draisaitl debacle this year.

    Learning from his mistakes isn’t something that MacT has shown he’s capable of.

  42. Jon K says:

    Rational Zealot,

    I agree with your comments on how evaluating players based on comparables is fruitless. It really doesn’t advance the reliability or accuracy of assessment.

    However, I would simply counter by suggesting that it is human nature to seek these kinds of comparisons. Learning new things, including evaluations of a player from scratch, is hard work for the human brain. By referencing an already understood commodity (i.e. this player is like this player I already know), the brain is able to shortcut some of this work.

    Availability bias is the enemy of NHL scouts. I wonder how many of them recognize it.

    EDIT: Regarding the rest of your post, I am pretty sure the rebuild has been ever-failing as management and coaching have been continuously turned over. The result being no continuity or consistency for the development of those young players, and the failure of management to support those young players with a decent cast of veterans.

    “Hmmmm we have the worst team in the league, primarily on the back of poor goaltending and defense. Let’s plop a few first overall pick forwards in there. Voila! Instant contender!”

    “What do you mean the team is still terrible? These kids aren’t getting the job done. Better get some new ones.”

  43. Unicorns says:

    dustrock,

    “They haven’t had a coach yet, including Krueger and Nelson, who can motivate these guys on a game-to-game basis.”

    It’s part and parcel with bad management. Playing guys that aren’t good when there are better options in players that have earned the spot with better play, blaming the wrong players and not recognizing the biggest problem is a poorly constructed back end.

    Until the correct players are held accountable for poor play by the GM the inconsistency and amateur hockey quality defensive play will continue. The reality of losing your place clears the mind.

  44. frjohnk says:

    Getting to the end of the year and just running some data.

    Some of the following pertains to the debate last night in the comment section about shooting %’s.

    This is shot attempts for even strength and power play only.

    Shot Attempts Per Game Total (Shooting %)
    Edmonton..53.25 (4%)
    Calgary……52.0375 (5.1%)
    Leag Avg…54.76 (4.6%)

    Shot Attempts Per Game Perimeter (Shooting %)
    Edmonton….24.86 (1.4%)
    Calgary……..22.36 (2%)
    Leag Avg…..24.74 ( 2.1%)

    Shot Attempts Per Game Medium Danger Location (Shooting %)
    Edmonton….16.975 (4.1%)
    Calgary……..17.825 (5.6%)
    Leag Avg…..17.46 (4.3%)

    Shot Attempts Per Game High Danger Location (Shooting %)
    Edmonton….11.41 (9.9%)
    Calgary……..11.85 (10.1%)
    Leag Avg…..12.54 (9.8%)

    I have also the data through all of Edmonton’s games ( 1 left) and have shots, shot locations and their respective shooting %. Will post in a bit.

  45. alice13 says:

    thejonrmcleod: Not if Matty has scared the Leafs with his comparison of Hanifin to Whitney.

    That’s beautiful. The dis-disinformation campaign might even fool our own guy, if we’re not careful, “You mean, wait… what??”

    Think Wally Shawn with the poisoned goblets

  46. Doubting Olive says:

    Jon K:
    Rational Zealot,

    I agree with your comments on how evaluating players based on comparables is fruitless. It really doesn’t advance the reliability or accuracy of assessment.

    However, I would simply counter by suggesting that it is human nature to seek these kinds of comparisons. Learning new things, including evaluations of a player from scratch, is hard work for the human brain. By referencing an already understood commodity (i.e. this player is like this player I already know), the brain is able to shortcut some of this work.

    Availability bias is the enemy of NHL scouts. I wonder how many of them recognize it.

    I agree. If we look at this from a different perspective:

    Conversation 1

    Guy 1: I’m thinking of buying a non-descript, bland, saloon car.

    Guy 2: What’s it like?

    Guy 1: It is 3m long by 1.75m wide by 1m high. There are 4 wheels, made of an alloy composite, clad in rubber tyres inflated with air, at each corner. These are recessed under the body, which is comprised of light steel and finished with a hard paint, the colour of which is your choice. The styling can be said to be contemporary of the 2010s, with LED headlights at the front………..And so on

    Conversation 2

    Guy 1: I’m thinking of buying an Hyundai.

    Guy 2: What’s it like?

    Guy 1: You know the Ford Taurus? A little like one of those and a Corolla.

    I think they just make comparisons to make it a little easier for the people who can’t sink hours into researching draft picks, but who have more than a passing interest.

    I honestly don’t think that even MacT will sit there and say “The Edmonton Oilers are proud to select Lawson Crouse, because he’s just like Lucic!”

  47. Hammers says:

    Your probably right on Nelson Not getting the job and that maybe the first mistake this coming year . The draft pick may be the second mistake especially if they take a “D” that high . Hanifin is 17 not 20-21 and won’t be here for a few years . Like it or not we need veteran “D” players and the Sabisa contract tells us that middling “D” go for $3.5 or so . Take Strome and his playing in another year . Get 2 “D” with 5+ years of experience then 2 years from now were back in playoffs adding Nurse , Leon , Strome plus another full year of Klef and Marincin with a final decision on if Schultz is a player or trade him.

  48. Rondo says:

    The Oilers will pick with their first pick McDavid , Hanifin or Strome.

  49. LoDog says:

    Can someone enlighten me on how Matheson is supposedly getting nuggets of information and we should care about anything he types?

    All I see is him throwing shit at the wall and not much sticks.

    Maybe I missed all the things he called like acquiring Drew Stafford approximately 37 000 times.

  50. Numenius says:

    If the Oilers want Hanifin before Strome and Marner, it’s really important they don’t telegraph that to other teams, especially to Arizona.

    So while it could be real, the verbal about comparing him to Whitney could just be a red herring.

  51. Doubting Olive says:

    So, anyone want to trade Pouliot for draft picks? Career year, locked up long term………value has never been higher!

    Aw, come on!

  52. Doubting Olive says:

    LoDog:
    Can someone enlighten me on how Matheson is supposedly getting nuggets of information and we should care about anything he types?

    All I see is him throwing shit at the wall and not much sticks.

    Maybe I missed all the things he called like acquiring Drew Stafford approximately 37 000 times.

    Don’t joke, that could still happen.

  53. PhrankLee says:

    Doubting Olive,

    Best signing in the MacT era without a doubt.

    It will be hard to match.

  54. Numenius says:

    719: Its arguable MacT gave away a competent 2 way C in Horcoff.

    McT mentioned at a season ticket holder event that the real reason he got rid of Horcoff was there was too much tension between him and the younger cluster.

    If true, it makes sense to me.

  55. Doubting Olive says:

    PhrankLee:
    Doubting Olive,

    Best signing in the MacT era without a doubt.

    It will be hard to match.

    I would say last year’s Perron was a better player. But without doubt, Poo is his current BFF.

  56. hoser313 says:

    G Money,

    At the WJC, I thought Hanifin’s skating looked a lot more like Jacob Trouba’s, than Ryan Whitney’s.

    If they’re both good passers that’s great, but I really don’t see similarity in style of play.

  57. knighttown says:

    Man, the possibility of adding Hanifan to Nurse and Klefbom might give the Oilers the most “toolsy” set of defensemen in the NHL. Who knows if any of them will be any good but all three are huge and are phenomenal skaters. If you’re making a list of defensemen over 6’3″ in the NHL ranked by skating ability, all three of these guys would be what…top 20?

    Eric Johnson’s probably the best for me but add Brent Burns, Dougie Hamilton, Seth Jones, John Carlson, Pietrangelo.

    Who knows what that means but at least its something.

  58. Numenius says:

    Doubting Olive: So, anyone want to trade Pouliot for draft picks? Career year, locked up long term………value has never been higher!

    I actually dreamed that this happened last night! Kind of a nightmare actually.

  59. Doubting Olive says:

    alice13: That’s beautiful. The dis-disinformation campaign might even fool our own guy, if we’re not careful, “You mean, wait… what??”

    Think Wally Shawn with the poisoned goblets

    “This product causes paralysis and some monsterism.”

    “That’s for Marketing to worry about.”

  60. Doubting Olive says:

    Numenius: I actually dreamed that this happened last night! Kind of a nightmare actually.

    You know if we’ve joked about it, they’ve thought about it.

  61. PhrankLee says:

    Doubting Olive: I would say last year’s Perron was a better player. But without doubt, Poo is his current BFF.

    I feel like we have seen this pattern with Perron where he is all hands on deck and bursting with effort and then fades badly as he did with St Louis, Edmonton and now Pitt.

  62. Pouzar says:

    Doubting Olive:
    So, anyone want to trade Pouliot for draft picks?Career year, locked up long term………value has never been higher!

    Aw, come on!

    “And in other news, Benoit Pouliot has requested a trade from the Edmonton Oilers”

  63. alice13 says:

    Numenius:
    If the Oilers want Hanifin before Strome and Marner, it’s really important they don’t telegraph that to other teams, especially to Arizona.

    So while it could be real, the verbal about comparing him to Whitney could just be a red herring.

    Why, what’s the scenario?

    Is Arizona really going to take the guy We want instead of the guy They Actually want? I’m not sure there’s a thing here.

  64. G Money says:

    Doubting Olive,

    Comparables set a useful bar for both style of play and (less so) projected performance.

    It is commonplace for Rational Z to take well accepted and well understood conventions in hockey (e.g. lines and pairings) and declare them to be of no value. He/she is on an island on that one, I would say.

    Your sample conversations give a good example of exactly how such comparables provide value in conversation.

    Such comparables do become meaningless if the comparable used doesn’t have an established playing style or performance bar.

    But if the comparable is a now/future Hall of Famer with a distinct playing style (e.g. Lidstrom, Niedermayer, Pronger, Scott Stevens), or even a current high-end player, using that as a playing style comparable conveys a lot of information.

    Using Alex Edler or Roman Josi, both decent defenders but neither of whom has a clearly established style or performance bar, would provide little information.

  65. G Money says:

    Numenius,

    Of the many things I fear, other teams using Oiler draft assessments is not one of them!

  66. Yeti says:

    Numenius: So while it could be real, the verbal about comparing him to Whitney could just be a red herring.

    If it’s red herrings we’re after, can we get G Money to massage the figures in a way that Cory Cross becomes the best comp available? Oh wait. In reflection, DSF might be more suited to that task.

  67. dangilitis says:

    Dashingsilverfox says:
    April 9, 2015 at 11:17 pm

    dangilitis: While you denied ever making a quote suggesting the Flames players will get better (which I have disproven), now you are making a bold and false claim that I have suggested that the 3 players will all regress to 9% shooting. I have suggested that what they are doing now is unsustainable.

    12% averages are actually exactly what I am thinking for the pair. Hudler can keep his 15%. That is a combined shooting percentage of 13%, not 16.6%. 3.6% lower for the 3 means 18 less goals (about 500 shots combined between them). 18 less goals likely means 40-50 less points (because they often assist on one another’s goals). So they better be better players, or else they will each drop by about 15 pts.

    In the 1980s, look at the league shooting averages. They were far better, and that is why nearly all players who have a better career shooting percentage than Hudler, Monahan, and Gaudreau have posted up this year are from that era. So yes, the league averages are meaningful, because they tell a story.

    And refusing to believe that Monahan will be different than other, very talented NHL players who cannot sustain these shooting percentages because he is Monahan, that is called anecdotes. Anecdotes are what snake oil salesmen use to sell their products.

    Are you in on the 12% bet?

    I can never have too much Talisker.

    ————————————————
    Just saw this now.
    Hudler is at 19.6 (31/158), Monahan at 16.2 (31/191), Gaudreau at 14.4 (24/167).
    To be more specific, they have scored 86 goals on 516 shots, for a shooting percentage of 16.7%.

    If the 3 combine for 400 or more shots next year (which shouldn’t be a problem, because they are only getting better and should drive chances and shots aplenty next year, according to you), and combined shooting percentage is greater than or equal to 13.5%, you win.

    That’s an average drop of 3.2%.

  68. Jon K says:

    Numenius: McT mentioned at a season ticket holder event that the real reason he got rid of Horcoff was there was too much tension between him and the younger cluster.

    If true, it makes sense to me.

    This is what I had heard as well from the same fellow that filled me in on MacT’s illness and various other things. He described it as being quite a bit more than just tension, however.

  69. Woodguy says:

    I’m a big proponent of leaving prospects on the farm until they are truly kicking out the jams at the AHL level to show they are ready for the NHL.

    In true “goalies are voodoo” fashion, that might be the wrong approach to goalies.

    Below is a fascinating article about goalie SV% over time.

    http://hockey-graphs.com/2014/03/21/how-well-do-goalies-age-a-look-at-a-goalie-aging-curve/

    Spoler: As a group they decrease over time starting with as soon as they get into the NHL

    It kinda makes sense as fast twitch muscles are very important to goaltending and those don’t get faster over time. They just don’t.

    It might be the right play to put a young G into the NHL as soon as they show to be above average in the AHL.

    Hmmmmmmmmmm.

  70. dustrock says:

    Pretty sure, just like with Dr Drai this last draft, the most “NHL ready” draft pick is going to be important for Mac T, not necessarily BPA.

    Which is why I’m nervous about Crouse.

  71. Jon K says:

    G Money,

    Yes, I should clarify that I am not meaning to say that comparables are completely useless. Comparing play styles is, as you suggest, very helpful.

    My point is that comparables don’t assist with improving the reliability or accuracy of scouting itself.

  72. Numenius says:

    G Money:
    Numenius,

    Of the many things I fear, other teams using Oiler draft assessments is not one of them!

    Haha. Touché.

  73. hoser313 says:

    Hammers:
    Your probably right on Nelson Not getting the job and that maybe the first mistake this coming year . The draft pick may be the second mistake especially if they take a “D” that high . Hanifin is 17 not 20-21 and won’t be here for a few years . Like it or not we need veteran “D” players and the Sabisa contract tells us that middling “D” go for $3.5 or so . Take Strome and his playing in another year .Get 2 “D” with 5+ years of experience then 2 years from now were back in playoffs adding Nurse , Leon , Strome plus another full year of Klef and Marincin with a final decision on if Schultz is a player or trade him.

    But the Oilers can’t help but screw up their blueline. And they’ve done it for years. It will cost dearly to get good veteran D.

    Go look at some of the MSM articles from the start of the year. They honestly believed at the start of the year that Fayne and Nikitin would push Petry down in the line-up.

    Hate to say it but I trust drafting Hanifin more than I do trading for another veteran D.

  74. PhrankLee says:

    dustrock: Pretty sure, just like with Dr Drai this last draft, the most “NHL ready” draft pick is going to be important for Mac T, not necessarily BPA.

    I think this is a factor in a position of higher priority to MacT than most general managers in the NHL currently.

  75. prairieschooner says:

    I believe the Oilers need more Nelson and less “winner coaches”
    He puts players in position to help them be successful, we have seen improved results because of this.
    We have also seen blowouts and that is because the group we have still has a long way to go to become a good team night in night out
    Uneven performance is more in keeping with my expectation for the Oilers
    That should be the pain of a developing team not the “My System will be succesful in the NHL “crap we were subjected to under Eakins

  76. Cameron says:

    Yeti:
    Woodguy – really sorry to do this, but I presume you remember our bet about Calgary making the playoffs? As the loser, you owe me a poem – set at the Calgary stampede – about how much you love the Flames. To be posted here.

    As a good sport, despite winning the bet, I promise to nonetheless record and post the song I was going contribute about yourself and fancy stats.

    This may be my favourite LT moment EVER

  77. rickithebear says:

    Gibson
    18 yr chl .928
    playoffs .938
    19 yr CHL .928
    Playoffs .946
    first full ahl Year (20) .919
    First NHL season 3 games .954

    Broissoit
    18 CHL .914
    Playoffs .933 WHL champs
    19 CHL .918
    Playoffs .935
    First full AHL year (21) .916
    .920 before the d purge
    First game NHL .961 Save%

  78. Unicorns says:

    The Oilers didn’t outplay LA really, they got normal goaltending and LA didn’t show up outside of Doughty. They didn’t show up against the Flames really either. The Oilers look good when not challenged, fold like a house of cards when they are typically.

    LA’s story is a great example of management overreacting with post playoff hot steak contracts with Quick and Gaborik and the ‘moar bigger’ mirage.

    ‘Moar skill’ beats ‘moar bigger’ if moar skill isn’t afraid of moar bigger. LA’s success hasn’t come from being large, grinding or playing the body. They have been very average in the regular season and very lucky in the playoffs.

    Sutter does have them playing a really good team game, still in the first run they played well but really it was about Quick. The second run was about getting a lot of bounces. They were more disciplined than the Rangers but the Rangers were more dangerous, could have gone either way. It reminded me of the Oilers 2006 run, OT game 7 wins, Lady Luck smiled more than anything else.

    I am interested to see how the Blues do, for me they have taken Dallas’ place as the thug team that mistreats our Oilers. They haven’t been able to bore and cheat their way through so far, but with a couple of more skilled forwards they seem to be able to score now. We’ll see if Hitch stifles the offense because playoffs and they bland out of the playoffs again.

  79. Doubting Olive says:

    How about a sloppily put together haiku?

    Dashing Silver Fox

    Says Calgary are the greatest.

    He would, wouldn’t he?

  80. Ducey says:

    LoDog:
    Can someone enlighten me on how Matheson is supposedly getting nuggets of information and we should care about anything he types?

    All I see is him throwing shit at the wall and not much sticks.

    Maybe I missed all the things he called like acquiring Drew Stafford approximately 37 000 times.

    Its the same thing every year. Everyone picks a high ranked Coke machine and then condemns the Oilers for being idiots for picking someone they have not even picked yet.

    Every year the “shit on the wall” Matheson throws out is picked though and analyzed. At the end of the day, its just speculation and few nuggets from “a scout” buddy of his. If Matheson actually had info that the Oilers would take Crouse, he would actually say something along those lines. He has not said anything along those lines, other that some scouts like Crouse. Every year the scouts like some big ass power forward and project him to be Lucic or Shanahan. Big deal.

    Every year I point out that the Oilers don’t even know where they are picking, and who they are picking. The lottery and the combine have not been held yet.

    In the Nurse year, it was quite evident that MacT picked Nurse the morning of the draft. In the Yak year, batman is rumoured to have intervened.

    The Oilers are bad at a lot of things, but they are pretty good at their first pick. And they can read a depth chart as well as we can. If Hanifin is on the same range as Strome, and he checks out at the combine (remember this is important to the Oilers) then they will likely take him.

    It doesn’t sell advertising, but there is no story here. Yet.

  81. Ca$h-Money! says:

    rickithebear:
    Gibson
    18 yr chl .928
    playoffs .938
    19 yr CHL .928Playoffs .946first full ahl Year (20) .919First NHL season 3 games .954

    Broissoit18 CHL .914
    Playoffs .933 WHL champs19 CHL .918
    Playoffs .935First full AHL year (21) .916.920 before the d purge
    First game NHL .961 Save%

    I…… agree?

  82. dustrock says:

    rickithebear: Gibson18 yr chl .928playoffs .93819 yr CHL .928Playoffs .946first full ahl Year (20) .919First NHL season 3 games .954Broissoit18 CHL .914Playoffs .933 WHL champs19 CHL .918Playoffs .935First full AHL year (21) .916.920 before the d purgeFirst game NHL .961 Save%

    Sure like seeing LB’s sv %age going up in the playoffs against the best teams.

  83. G Money says:

    Jon K: My point is that comparables don’t assist with improving the reliability or accuracy of scouting itself.

    Indeed. What is a helpful convention for us plebs is a lazy and damaging shortcut for the professionals.

    To use your example, if I say to you “I’m thinking of buying a Zoomdai QRPXZ” and you ask, “what’s that?” and I reply “kind of a cheap cross between an MDX and an RX350”, I’ve probably conveyed a lot of information.

    If I go into the Zoomdai dealership and tell the salesperson “I’m looking for a mid-size SUV” and he/she says “Oh, you should see the QRPXZ then”, and I say “OK, tell me more”, and the reply is “It’s like a cheap cross between an MDX and an RX350”, that’s a dereliction of duty!

    Yeti: can we get G Money to massage the figures in a way that Cory Cross becomes the best comp available? Oh wait. In reflection, DSF might be more suited to that task.

    LOL, yeah, I”m not your guy! I try and run stats to understand and clarify, not mislead and obfuscate!

    Woodguy,

    That really is very interesting, and goes against the prevailing wisdom. Interesting that the curve version (which has lower error) shows a peak at 27, which in my head is always the age I use as the maturation point of NHL goalies (22 for F, 25 for D, 27 for G), but the linear version (higher error but visually a better fit) shows nothing but a decline.

  84. RexLibris says:

    Last night the LHC (Large Hadron Collider) team for the first time accelerated a beam up to 6500 GeV, which is the target for this year.

    The next big step will be to store two beams at this energy, and bring them into collision with a total energy of 13000 GeV. That’s when the new physics starts!

    13000 GeV.

    That might be enough energy to put a jump in even Justin Schultz’s step.

  85. G Money says:

    RexLibris,

    Did you know that there have been concerns from legit physicists that the startup of the LHC could in fact trigger the end of the universe?

    Not sure how that works, but the Flames did make the playoffs last night.

  86. Lowetide says:

    Calgary rests
    at the gate of the majestic Rocky mountains
    The people drive fast cars
    They have sports teams
    and they suck
    and blow.

    Fin.

  87. Genjutsu says:

    I attended the Montreal portion of the WJC and watched Hanifin as closely as I could, I was pretty transfixed by Eichel, but I tried my best to focus and the young D.

    Smooth, relaxed, confident, sure, poised, calm were the words that kept coming into my head. He always made the right play, quickly and effortlessly. Seemed to read and react a have second before everyone else and in so doing was never in danger.

    I’m not sure he doesn’t walk into the Oilers training camp the best LD option on the team unless there are major upgrades coming this summer.

    How do you keep that off your team?

  88. Pouzar says:

    The eye test RE: Brossoit has me excited. What a talent. I wasn’t surprised at that game at all last night. That’s some athleticism the kid has.

  89. alice13 says:

    Genjutsu:
    I attended the Montreal portion of the WJC and watched Hanifin as closely as I could, I was pretty transfixed by Eichel, but I tried my best to focus and the young D.

    Smooth, relaxed, confident, sure, poised, calm were the words that kept coming into my head. He always made the right play, quickly and effortlessly. Seemed to read and react a have second before everyone else and in so doing was never in danger.

    I’m not sure he doesn’t walk into the Oilers training camp the best LD option on the team unless there are major upgrades coming this summer.

    How do you keep that off your team?

    Agreed, but Jeff Petry waves hello,

  90. Pouzar says:

    Genjutsu:
    I attended the Montreal portion of the WJC and watched Hanifin as closely as I could, I was pretty transfixed by Eichel, but I tried my best to focus and the young D.

    Smooth, relaxed, confident, sure, poised, calm were the words that kept coming into my head. He always made the right play, quickly and effortlessly. Seemed to read and react a have second before everyone else and in so doing was never in danger.

    I’m not sure he doesn’t walk into the Oilers training camp the best LD option on the team unless there are major upgrades coming this summer.

    How do you keep that off your team?

    I love you.

  91. Yeti says:

    Lowetide:
    Calgary rests
    at the gate of the majestic Rocky mountains
    The people drive fast cars
    They have sports teams
    and they suck
    and blow.

    Fin.

    You have a rare talent there, Sir.

  92. fifthcartel says:

    Re: Matt O’Connor

    My friend won one of the trips to see the Oilers play in LA/Anaheim via Rogers and got to meet everyone, including MacT. They saw him in the elevator later on and were making small talk so they asked if he was going to the Frozen Four, etc, and MacT told them that he was “hellbent” on signing Matt O’Connor.

    Thought that was kind of interesting, and I was a little surprised at how transparent he was to two fans. Although, this was after the 8-2 loss so I think he mentioned to them how goaltending might be an issue.

  93. Unicorns says:

    Jon K: This is what I had heard as well from the same fellow that filled me in on MacT’s illness and various other things. He described it as being quite a bit more than just tension, however.

    So you’re saying there’s a chance that Ference gets traded for his thing with Hall!

  94. Магия 10 says:

    Doubting Olive:
    How about a sloppily put together haiku?

    Dashing Silver Fox
    Says Calgary are the greatest.
    He would, wouldn’t he?

    Figures that a smooth writer like LT would attract a smoother grade of Disingenuous Stat Flogging pet troll:

    In this paper, we characterize antisocial behavior in three large online discussion communities by analyzing users who were banned from these communities. We find that such users tend to concentrate their efforts in a small number of threads, are more likely to post irrelevantly, and are more successful at garnering responses from other users. Studying the evolution of these users from the moment they join a community up to when they get banned, we find that not only do they write worse than other users over time, but they also become increasingly less tolerated by the community.

    http://arxiv.org/abs/1504.00680

  95. Woodguy says:

    Yeti:
    Great work, Broissoit. Hopefully in two years you’ll be ready to contribute full time.

    Woodguy – really sorry to do this, but I presume you remember our bet about Calgary making the playoffs? As the loser, you owe me a poem – set at the Calgary stampede – about how much you love the Flames. To be posted here.

    As a good sport, despite winning the bet, I promise to nonetheless record and post the song I was going contribute about yourself and fancy stats.

    I have zero recollection of this.

    That being said, I write something…..

  96. spoiler says:

    Lowetide:
    Calgary rests
    at the gate of the majestic Rocky mountains
    The people drive fast cars
    They have sports teams
    and they suck
    and blow.

    Fin.

    Aren’t you supposed to be running a radio show right now?! Lol.

  97. Yeti says:

    Woodguy: I have zero recollection of this.

    That being said, I write something…..

    Just for the record:

    Yeti: For fun, I’ll take you up.
    * If they fluke their way in, you write a poem, staged at the Calgary stampede, extolling your irrepressible licentious desires for mythical beasts. You would, of course, post it to these very pages.
    * If they fail to make it, I’ll record you a “Tribute to Woodguy’s Corgis” song as an mp3 with full band and composed in a style of your choosing: jazz, blues, funk, rock, whatever. The link will be delivered to this website.

    Deal?

    Woodguy: Done and done.

    Book it!

    http://lowetide.ca/2014/11/03/stanley-road/comment-page-1/#comment-350790

    🙂

  98. blainer says:

    rickithebear:
    Gibson
    18 yr chl .928
    playoffs .938
    19 yr CHL .928Playoffs .946first full ahl Year (20) .919First NHL season 3 games .954

    Broissoit18 CHL .914
    Playoffs .933 WHL champs19 CHL .918
    Playoffs .935First full AHL year (21) .916.920 before the d purge
    First game NHL .961 Save%

    Very interesting.. really hoping for a deep run in playoffs for LB… we should do well when the team sends down its AHL players.. Hutchinson went deep with the icecaps last year and is having a good year in the Peg…

  99. spoiler says:

    G Money:
    Doubting Olive,

    Comparables set a useful bar for both style of play and (less so) projected performance.

    It is commonplace for Rational Z to take well accepted and well understood conventions in hockey (e.g. lines and pairings) and declare them to be of no value.He/she is on an island on that one, I would say.

    Your sample conversations give a good example of exactly how such comparables provide value in conversation.

    Such comparables do become meaningless if the comparable used doesn’t have an established playing style or performance bar.

    But if the comparable is a now/future Hall of Famer with a distinct playing style (e.g. Lidstrom, Niedermayer, Pronger, Scott Stevens), or even a current high-end player, using that as a playing style comparable conveys a lot of information.

    Using Alex Edler or Roman Josi, both decent defenders but neither of whom has a clearly established style or performance bar, would provide little information.

    The way comps were explained to me by a scout back in the day when I would occasionally moonlight for Molstar was this:

    1. You never give one player’s name, you always give two
    2. One name represents the lower bound and one name the upper bound of the prospect’s potential
    3. Those boundaries represent the offense the prospect could bring. That is, style is less relevant than points.
    4. If there is a style that fits those offense boundaries then you use it. Style being the tools the player has and how he deploys them, more than how he skates and his posture. Although, they will sometimes say he skates widetrack, like so and so, or has a long or choppy stride like whazzisface, etc. but usually that is separate from his “comp”.

  100. Woodguy says:

    Yeti,

    In the shadow of Scotsman hill
    The odor of manure is omnipresent.
    Large animals strain against their reins
    And buck against their pens
    Is this the rodeo or hockey?
    Is the manure fertilizer or just horsehit?
    Only time will tell.

  101. Pajamah says:

    Woodguy:
    I’m a big proponent of leaving prospects on the farm until they are truly kicking out the jams at the AHL level to show they are ready for the NHL.

    In true “goalies are voodoo” fashion, that might be the wrong approach to goalies.

    Below is a fascinating article about goalie SV% over time.

    http://hockey-graphs.com/2014/03/21/how-well-do-goalies-age-a-look-at-a-goalie-aging-curve/

    Spoler: As a group they decrease over time starting with as soon as they get into the NHL

    It kinda makes sense as fast twitch muscles are very important to goaltending and those don’t get faster over time.They just don’t.

    It might be the right play to put a young G into the NHL as soon as they show to be above average in the AHL.

    Hmmmmmmmmmm.

    I just want Larry Croissant to be an NHL starter, solve 1 major problem internally, and be the starter of note with a 0.925 for the next 10 seasons.

    Is that really too much to ask?

  102. sliderule says:

    The oilers are giving you hints as to why they won’t take Hanifin

    If you remember back when just before the draft mact scouted Nurse .He gushed how tough and competitive he was.You had to know that was their pick.

    Mact has scouted Hanifin and you haven’t heard a peep.

    To my eyes Hanifin plays very much like Petry and that is my hint as to who they won’t pick him.

  103. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy:
    Yeti,

    In the shadow of Scotsman hill
    The odor of manure is omnipresent.
    Large animals strain against their reins
    And buck against their pens
    Is this the rodeo or hockey?
    Is the manure fertilizer or just horsehit?
    Only time will tell.

    *Favored*

  104. spoiler says:

    Pajamah: I just want Larry Croissant to be an NHL starter, solve 1 major problem internally, and be the starter of note with a 0.925 for the next 10 seasons.
    Is that really too much to ask?

    No, that’s perfectly reasonable. Number one (goalie), make it so..

  105. godot10 says:

    Ryan Whitney had only average to below average skating, even before the injuries. He is NOT a comparable to Bouwmeester, Brewer, Pieterangelo, Ekman-Larsson, or HANIFIN.

    Whitney had the elite passing ability, but NOT the elite skating ability.

    Pieterangelo, Shattenkirk
    Ekman-Larsson, Yandle

    Shattenkirk and Yandle have the big shots and got more or all of the PP time. Pieterangelo and Ekman-Larsson are the far better defensemen.

    #JustSayNoah

    He most probably isn’t Doughty. But then nobody is.

  106. Rondo says:

    Kyle Woodlief of Red Line Report has Hanifin = Ekblad in his draft year.

    https://soundcloud.com/630ched/oilers-now-3rd-half-hour-mar-10

    Starts at 6:25 Hanifin

  107. kinger_OIL says:

    Sports is so great: Speith doing a “Tiger”. I imagine the kids today in awe of Jordan just like back in the day when Tiger shook up golf with his amazing first Master’s win at around the same age. Just a question of how many strokes now. Measure him up for a green jacket already. He will be 5 up at least before back 9 Sunday: game over, book it. Looking forward to hearing Tiger talk about it…

  108. spoiler says:

    kinger_OIL:
    Sports is so great: Speith doing a “Tiger”.I imagine the kids today in awe of Jordan just like back in the day when Tiger shook up golf with his amazing first Master’s win at around the same age.Just a question of how many strokes now. Measure him up for a green jacket already.He will be 5 up at least before back 9 Sunday: game over, book it.Looking forward to hearing Tiger talk about it…

    Speaking of… does anyone have a link to a bootleg feed of The Masters?

  109. rickithebear says:

    Top 90 (1-3 D) EVGA 3 years in Row 12-13 to 14-15.
    Hjarlmasson 1st comp 1.76 EVGA
    Muzzin 1st 1.74
    Lovejoy 1st/2nd 1.89
    Boychuck 1st/2nd 2.07
    Oduya 1st/2nd (33) UFA 1.96
    Tanev 1st/2nd
    Quincey 1st/2nd 2.04
    Staal 1st/2nd 2.04
    Brodin Lower 1st 2.08
    Vlasic Upper 2nd 1.98
    Niskanen 2nd 1.78
    B. Stuart upper 2nd 2.11
    Braun 2nd 1.98
    Spurgeon 2nd 2.07
    Boyle lower 2nd 1.75
    M. Stuart lower 2nd 2.01
    Seidenberg lower 2nd 1.99
    Klien 2nd/3rd 2.08
    Shattenkirk 2nd/3rd 1.96
    Gryba 2nd/3rd 2.12
    Ellis 2nd/3rd 2.19
    Martinez 3rd Comp 1.77
    Kindl 3rd/4th 1.84
    Moore 3rd/4th (24) RFA 1.90
    Leddy 3rd/4th 1.80
    Diaz 3rd/4th (29) UFA 1.72
    Mcquaid 3rd/4th (28) UFA

    D top 90 EVGA last 2 seasons
    Deykeyser 1st comp 1.99
    Bellimore 1st/2nd (27) UFA 1.88
    Bouwmeester 1st/2nd 2.12
    Gunnarson 1st/2nd 2.16
    Markov 1st/2nd 2.03
    Yemelin 1st/2nd 2.03
    Carle 1st/2nd 2.05
    Reghr Upper 2nd (35) UFA 1.92
    Scandella upper 2nd 1.98
    sustr lower 2nd (24) RFA 1.88
    Irwin 2nd (27) UFA 2.05
    Lindholm lower 2nd 2.10
    Merril 2nd/3rd 2.04
    zidlicky 2nd/3rd (38) UFA 2.15
    Greene 2nd/3rd 1.82
    Stanton 2nd/3rd (25) RFA 2.11
    Cole 3rd (26) RFA 1.31
    Liles 3rd comp 2.03
    volchenkov 3rd 1.97
    Miller 3rd comp 1.09
    Barberio 3rd (25) RFA 1.91
    Pardy 4th (31) UFA 1.98

    WE know in tight shots are were the large Save% resulst from goalies are.
    Give me D that keep it to perimeter
    and can pass the puck!

  110. Kitchener says:

    rickithebear,

    Gibson’s OHL numbers in context vs. Kitchener’s other goalie:

    11-12 regular season:
    – Gibson: 32GP, .928%
    – Palazzese: 36GP, .927%

    2012 regular season:
    – Gibson: 16GP, .938%
    – Palazzese 2GP, .943%

    12-13 regular season:
    – Gibson, 27GP, .928%
    – Palazzese, 20GP, .934% (traded to Sudbury mid-season; .912%)

    2013 playoff:
    – Gibson, 10GP, .946%
    – Palazzese (traded)

    Watching those teams, I never understood why Gibson was heralded as a top prospect while Frankie Palazzese wasn’t. IMO Gibson was the Rangers’ #2 goalie.

    Regardless, goalies are voodoo and predicting the future based on past numbers seems next to impossible. Still, fun comparison with LB.

  111. Pouzar says:

    kinger_OIL:
    Sports is so great: Speith doing a “Tiger”.I imagine the kids today in awe of Jordan just like back in the day when Tiger shook up golf with his amazing first Master’s win at around the same age.Just a question of how many strokes now. Measure him up for a green jacket already.He will be 5 up at least before back 9 Sunday: game over, book it.Looking forward to hearing Tiger talk about it…

    I picked him in my one-and-done pool. Hope you didn’t jinx him. Don’t hassle the Hoff!

  112. Pouzar says:

    spoiler: Speaking of… does anyone have a link to a bootleg feed of The Masters?

    try “crictv”…been working excellent for me with baseball….have yer adblocker handy.

  113. Lowetide says:

    sliderule:
    The oilers are giving you hints as to why they won’t take Hanifin

    If you remember back when just before the draftmact scouted Nurse .He gushed how tough and competitive he was.You had to know that was their pick.

    Mact has scouted Hanifin and you haven’t heard a peep.

    To my eyes Hanifin plays very much like Petry and that is my hint as to who they won’t pick him.

    Yeah, I think there’s a lot to this, honestly.

  114. Dashingsilverfox says:

    spoiler: Speaking of… does anyone have a link to a bootleg feed of The Masters?

    Live on TSN.ca if you’e in Canada

  115. rickithebear says:

    blainer: Very interesting.. really hoping for a deep run in playoffs for LB… we should do well when the team sends down its AHL players.. Hutchinson went deep with the icecaps last year and is having a good year in the Peg…

    you want to see A prospect with peer sequence like Howard; Schnieder; BIchop; Elliot Quick:
    18-20 2 years of ..924 save % NCAA
    21-24 .920+ Save% AHL
    Hellenbucyk
    19 HEast .952
    20 HEast .941
    21 AHL .921

    Nagel Voort games
    before Chabot and after Chabot firing .927 SAVE%

  116. spoiler says:

    Pouzar: try “crictv”…been working excellent for me with baseball….have yer adblocker handy.

    Thx, bro. Just a heads up fpr others, it’s cricfree. Crictv is a cricket site.

  117. RexLibris says:

    G Money:
    RexLibris.,

    Did you know that there have been concerns from legit physicists that the startup of the LHC could in fact trigger the end of the universe?

    Not sure how that works, but the Flames did make the playoffs last night.

    Ha. Years ago I wrote little vignette sports commentaries for some friends and I joked about Darryl Sutter’s penchant for trading picks for players as being totally justifiable based on his belief that the LHC was going to initiate a small black hole which would engulf the Earth. Gotta go all in when the world is coming to an end!

    What I find interesting about this, and with all due respect to the physicists involved, is that it seems like a touch of hubris to imagine that this overdeveloped simian race will have created something that doesn’t exist anywhere else in the universe under any given conditions.

    Certainly there are some Mary Shelley-nightmare issues that we need to start dealing with given the rapidly expanding breadth of our scientific investigation on a number of fronts, be it AI, GMO, medical reproduction, particle physics, and so on and so forth.

    But I think we also need to entrust a certain amount of responsibility, coupled with strong and qualified oversight, in our scientific community. Often times people draw images of Bond villains or evil masterminds from Flash Gordon when they imagine reckless scientists rashly racing where angels fear to tread.

    The new CERN lab tests will be designed to see if they can replicate micro black holes that will almost immediately disappear. Unfortunately, even the mention of creating a black hole brings forth the worst images in the public.

    The onus isn’t on science to slow down so the rest of us can catch up because, news flash, society simply won’t “catch up” of its own accord. It is on governments and the communities that sanction them to demand a greater emphasis on education at all levels in order to better understand and adapt to our rapidly altering perception of the world.

    The really funny thing, the punchline to the whole joke, is that the world isn’t changing. It’s always worked this way. We’re just starting to look at it differently and realizing that our old perspective was limited.

  118. Zack says:

    fifthcartel:
    Re: Matt O’Connor

    My friend won one of the trips to see the Oilers play in LA/Anaheim via Rogers and got to meet everyone, including MacT. They saw him in the elevator later on and were making small talk so they asked if he was going to the Frozen Four, etc, and MacT told them that he was “hellbent” on signing Matt O’Connor.

    Thought that was kind of interesting, and I was a little surprised at how transparent he was to two fans. Although, this was after the 8-2 loss so I think he mentioned to them how goaltending might be an issue.

    The year before the RNH draft I met Kevin Lowe and Stu Mac at a Red Deer Rebels game. I approached Lowe casually and asked if I could snap a pic with him and then made a little small talk. I asked if they where there to get an early viewing on Nuge, not knowing where he’d place the following draft and he told me they liked what they saw in him but they were watching Curtis Hamilton. They liked his game, he was offensive as well as played with some grit.

    Straight up Lowe told me who they were looking at, I think I may have mentioned it sometime on the blog years ago even.

    As long as you’re not a crazy “fan-boy/girl” he seemed perfectly fine having a little chat with me.

  119. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide:
    Calgary rests
    at the gate of the majestic Rocky mountains
    The people drive fast cars
    They have sports teams
    and they suck
    and blow.

    Fin.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-fwL9C1JFX8

    *snaps fingers*

  120. spoiler says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Live on TSN.ca if you’e in Canada

    Really? I thought they were showing featured groups and holes rather than the actual production.

    And if it runs as poorly as the rest of TSN’s site… which has become utter crap since going to WordPress.

  121. rickithebear says:

    Palazee:
    there is a standard ratio of shoulderheight + head/neck height = total height:
    Vert + Shoulder height + Rm length gives a Db’s defendable height.
    You get a standard coverage box from db’s
    Broad jump peak of curve + shoulder height + Arm length at 45 gives the box spread.

    With open hole coverage.
    A goalie has a certain height.
    which by standard
    gives the shoulder elevation in net.

    The shoulder to shoulder spread gives a
    center of body to point of shoulder + arm length for Open hole perimeter coverage for a goalie.

    Palazee is only 6’1″ short of the fringe range of 6’2″ for goalies.
    He fails to cover by standard body ratio.
    A longer torso may give the shoulder elevation.
    but then you lose leg length for post to post pad coverage.

    On top of that when you look at His shoulder carrige (point to point)
    he has narrow Svaboda shoulders and a neck like a Giraffe.
    there is allways going to be a lack of ability to cover the perimeters of the net.

    His first full season of Pro in ECHL hints at that!

  122. Pouzar says:

    spoiler: Thx, bro. Just a heads up fpr others, it’s cricfree. Crictv is a cricket site.

    *sigh*

    Not at my laptop at home.

    Enjoy!

  123. RexLibris says:

    sliderule:
    The oilers are giving you hints as to why they won’t take Hanifin

    If you remember back when just before the draftmact scouted Nurse .He gushed how tough and competitive he was.You had to know that was their pick.

    Mact has scouted Hanifin and you haven’t heard a peep.

    To my eyes Hanifin plays very much like Petry and that is my hint as to who they won’t pick him.

    I was thinking about the Oilers and NCAA defensemen and Hanifin last night.

    Maybe they could draft and develop him and get a 2nd AND a prospect for him in six years. That’d show that Petry guy who is the real evaluator of talent around here.

  124. Pouzar says:

    spoiler: Really? I thought they were showing featured groups and holes rather than the actual production.

    And if it runs as poorly as the rest of TSN’s site… which has become utter crap since going to WordPress.

    Not for Shaw customers.

  125. RexLibris says:

    Pouzar: *sigh*

    Not at my laptop at home.

    Enjoy!

    Try this: http://www.watching-grass-grow.com/

  126. Pouzar says:

    rickithebear,

    Everyone over 40 got the Svaboda reference LOL.

  127. Bag of Pucks says:

    The thing that concerns me about this draft is I’m starting to suspect this audit will result in no substantive change.

    If that’s the case, and assuming they don’t win the lottery, MacT will be sitting in that 3 or 4 slot thinking he has to pick a player that will help right the ship immediately.

    Oil mgmt could actually have Hanifan in their draft slot as both the BPA and the player that most addresses their positional need, and they could pass him on him if they don’t project him as an immediate starter in the dance.

    This org often makes decisions that don’t involve winning. Failing to address their greatest positional need with a readily available blue chip prospect would fall in that category imo.

    Best news we could get is an announcement within the next week or two that Lowe and MacT are out and a new GM will be in place by the draft.

  128. Unicorns says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    The thing that concerns me about this draft is I’m starting to suspect this audit will result in no substantive change.

    If that’s the case, and assuming they don’t win the lottery, MacT will be sitting in that 3 or 4 slot thinking he has to pick a player that will help right the ship immediately.

    Oil mgmt could actually have Hanifan in their draft slot as both the BPA and the player that most addresses their positional need, and they could pass him on him if they don’t project him as an immediate starter in the dance.

    This org often makes decisions that don’t involve winning. Failing to address their greatest positional need with a readily available blue chip prospect would fall in that category imo.

    Best news we could get is an announcement within the next week or two that Lowe and MacT are outand a new GM will be in place by the draft.

    Messier will think Hanifin’s a sissy as well 🙂

  129. Numenius says:

    Bag of Pucks: Oil mgmt could actually have Hanifan in their draft slot as both the BPA and the player that most addresses their positional need, and they could pass him on him if they don’t project him as an immediate starter in the dance.

    Unlikely. McT has said repeatedly that his key principle for drafting is most benefit to the franchise long term rather than short term.

  130. spoiler says:

    Seeing Crenshaw hit off 12 and take his final walk across the Hogan bridge sure brings a lump to the throat.

  131. rickithebear says:

    Save % leaders by height:
    1-5 6′ 3.6″
    6-16 6′ 2.9″
    17-21 6′ 2.5″
    22-30 6′ 1.9″

  132. frjohnk says:

    More on shooting % data ( does not include empty net goals)

    Total Shots on Net Perimeter Per Game ( Shooting %)
    Edmonton……..12.7 ( 2.4%)
    League Av…….13.4 ( 3.3)

    Total Shots on Net Med Danger Per Game ( Shooting %)
    Edmonton……….8 ( 6%)
    League Av………8 ( 8.1%)

    Total Shots on Net High Danger Per Game ( Shooting %)
    Edmonton……….7.76 (17.2%)
    League Av………8.34 (17.4%)

    Oilers shoot less from 2 of the 3 locations than the league average. They are even with medium danger location.

    Perimeter shots are less by the oilers and so is the shooting %. The difference between the league average and what the Oilers scored from the perimeter is 11 goals.

    Shots from the medium danger area are right in line with the league average but because the shooting percentage is 2.1 points off the league average, the oilers are behind by 14 goals from this shot metric compared to the league average.

    Shots from the high danger area are off by 0.58 shots per game compared to the league average. Which over the course of the season equates to a loss of 9 goals compared to the league average using 17.2% as the shooting %.

  133. book¡je says:

    Associate Coach Nelson?

  134. Yeti says:

    Woodguy:
    Yeti,

    In the shadow of Scotsman hill
    The odor of manure is omnipresent.
    Large animals strain against their reins
    And buck against their pens
    Is this the rodeo or hockey?
    Is the manure fertilizer or just horsehit?
    Only time will tell.

    Oh, that’s cute, no doubt. But I’m kind of hoping this might be the beginning of a ‘thing’. Like a series, or something…

  135. RexLibris says:

    book¡je:
    Associate Coach Nelson?

    Wondered the same thing last week.

    If he would be willing to work alongside a McLellan. He could get hired out of the associate position, but allows him to work alongside a HC and strengthen his resume that much more. Heaven knows time with the Oilers will mean he’ll probably need it.

  136. frjohnk says:

    Here I separated the west and east

    Eastern Conference
    Perimeter Shots……14.1
    Med Danger Shots….7.93
    High Danger Shots….8.39

    Shooting %
    Perimeter Shot ……2.4%
    Med Danger Shot…7.6%
    High Danger Shot..17%

    Western Conference
    Perimeter Shots……11.7
    Med Danger Shots. 8.04
    High Danger Shots..7.4

    Shooting %
    Perimeter Shot ……2.36%
    Med Danger Shot…4.8%
    High Danger Shot..17.4%

    The Oilers have more trouble offensively with the West. They shoot 2.4 less perimeter shots and 1 high danger shot less against the west. And while medium danger shots are pretty much equal, the shooting % in this metric is 2.8 points lower than in the east.

  137. GCW_69 says:

    Pouzar: *Favored*

    It’s not bad, but it is missing the profession of love for the Flames…

  138. Clay says:

    spoiler:
    Seeing Crenshaw hit off 12 and take his final walk across the Hogan bridge sure brings a lump to the throat.

    That image of him breaking down after winning it in ’95 – one of my favorite all-time sporting moments.

  139. Melman says:

    Lowetide: Yeah, I think there’s a lot to this, honestly.

    Will MAcT still be there in June to make the pick? We can hope for competence. It’s in the mail…

  140. sliderule says:

    Ben Crenshaw.

    What a kind and fine man.

    All athletes should try to emulate him.

  141. spoiler says:

    sliderule:
    Ben Crenshaw.

    Whata kind and fine man.

    All athletes should try to emulate him.

    Pure. Class.

  142. KPooL says:

    6+ year lurker, 1st time poster.

    First of all this comment board is sensational.

    Next up, my mini essay/rant 8 years in the making (completely off topic):
    Has anyone else lost a substantial interest in hockey or even other yearly repeated team sports because of this horrific oilers run? Hear me out…

    Every year for the last 1000, the Oilers have been out of the running 2 months (or earlier) into the season. This then leads the Oilerfan to focus on “the future” in order to maintain some kind of sanity in relation to Oilers related thoughts.
    This constant looking forward to “next year”, “next player to help”, “next draft”, “next free agent period”,
    thereby removes almost all, if not all enjoyment about the “present” Oilers. This leads the dedicated
    Oilerfan to a constant yearning for the possibly better future, with very little day to day, moment to
    moment satisfaction with our current situation.
    Oilerfan is left with a constant desire to “want” the future to be better, a constant craving for a better team which of course has lead to repeated disappointment. This constant foresight, and lack “present” tense enjoyment of the overall season, can then lead Oilerfan to view the NHL (or any yearly repeating team sports league) as almost only a year by year, season by season struggle. By always looking towards the next season, Oilerfan (or at least this Oilerfan) asks themselves why any single season matters if there is always next year? By taking the day to day, game day enjoyment out of the Oilersfan season, and being forced to always look forward to next year, this Oilerfan has begin to question why any single sports year really matters as there will always be more…. Yes the oilers have been that bad that they have almost ruined all sports for me.

    Of course Oilerfan can find some enjoyment in Yaks release, Hall hitting full speed, Ebs phone booth handling etc., but when the Oilers team itself is out of the running with 80% percent of the season remaining, year after year after year, this Oilerfan has stopped and questioned everything.

    This line of thinking to any of you (like me) that repetitively hit refresh on LTs game day post to see the newest comments, may seem utterly preposterous, but that is at least partly what my reality has become due to this teams inability to make the day to day, season long experience better for their loyal fans.

    I choose to puke up this long rant at the end of this years season, but really it could have been made anytime in the last 3 to 5 years, which just reinforces some of the ideas behind it.

    The obvious connections of these thoughts to existentialism (why do any sports matter?!), Buddhism (live in the moment to enjoy life, life is a struggle/enjoy the struggle), and probably countless other philosophical ideas could easily be explored by someone with a better understanding of these things as opposed to this dumb scientist. And perhaps because my own experiences and struggles with
    existential life questions, I have attempted to make connections and meanings to this year-after-year struggle, which may be too big of a stretch. Or maybe I am just getting old(er)……

    Sorry about the length and if it doesn’t make any sense. I needed to get this off my chest. Keep up everything you do LT as you (like it or not) have become our Buddhist leader, with your constant levelheadedness giving us glimpses into the possible reduction of our future suffering……. or more likely it is just better to accept that: OILERFAN LIFE IS SUFFERING, SUFFERING IS GOOD.

    But hey, there is always next year everyone!

  143. jake70 says:

    So after 2 rounds of a golf major, the leader is -14. 27 players under par. Boring. Change of Sunday afternoon plans it looks like. When is the U.S. open??

  144. Lowetide says:

    KPool: Welcome! I’m going to read your post again!

  145. godot10 says:

    book¡je:
    Associate Coach Nelson?

    He’s been there and done that. It would be a step back from being head coach in the AHL on the staircase to head coaching at the NHL level. Why would he take a step back? The second assistant coaching job at the NHL level means that you’ve pretty much given up on being a head coach, and don’t want to ride the AHL buses, and that you are satisfied being a subordinate and flying in planes and staying in fancier hotels.

    I would expect that when he signed his new contract last year that it contained provisions that allowed for a window where he could pursue NHL head coaching jobs. One would presume those provisions are still valid.

  146. sliderule says:

    jake70,

    Remember that guy what was his name?

    Oh it was Greg Norman

    To early to crown.

  147. RexLibris says:

    KPooL,

    Welcome.

    Nice perspective.

    I’ve spoken about how the suffering of this fan base feels like it must have some kind of meaning behind it. And of course we could make all kinds of comparisons with old myths of suffering in the here and now to earn greater rewards in the Great Beyond (martyrs to our own cause, as it were). But I’ve chosen to look at it thus: being a fan of the team through this period is an opportunity to grow a level of maturity and character that doesn’t come to those who have a winner planted at their feet, as this fan base had happen nearly forty years ago.

    So, we rely on that old dad-speech-standby: this’ll build character. And I suppose maybe it does. Forces us to appreciate the little things we have and celebrate what the Hockey Gods give us or give up and go elsewhere.

    In my more cynical dystopian dreams I imagine a time in the, hopefully, not-too-distant future where the Oilers finally win the Stanley Cup and LT’s site is populated only by a few grizzled and war-weary veterans who speak in some Oilers-creole of outdated pop culture references and obscure euphemisms. Some new poster pops their head in now and again to talk about promise and hope and the future and gets thoroughly thrashed by us about the time MacTavish couldn’t remember Marincin’s name because he was so focused on Nikita Nikitin and such.

    I hope it doesn’t go that way. We’re already a motley collection of characters as is. Not sure we need more eccentricities to muddy our already murky personalities. 🙂

    Keep posting. I’d love to hear your perspective on things.

  148. G Money says:

    *** NERD ALERT ***

    I’ve been doing data upgrades for the next step in analysis, so not much going on these days.

    But I did just update the draft database, so I ran a couple of charts on how many defensemen have been drafted at each position since 1998.

    https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/04/10/defensemen-drafted-count-by-position/

    Oddities: one single draft position has a peak value, one single position has a zero value.

  149. godot10 says:

    i.e. Craig Ramsey, who had head coaching stints, now an excellent career assistant, didn’t have any impact on the incompetence of the dementor, nor is he interviewed for HC gigs anymore.

    Rick Bowness hasn’t gotten any head coaching interviews.

    Paul Maurice chose to go back to head coach in the AHL rather than assistant coach in the NHL. He even turned down his good buddy Eakins.

    He is now an NHL head coach again.

    I don’t expect Todd Nelson to give up on his dream yet, and that is what taking an assistant job, whatever name you want to call it would mean.

  150. commonfan14 says:

    sliderule: Ben Crenshaw.
    What a kind and fine man.
    All athletes should try to emulate him.

    No better Crenshaw moment in my mind than this one from the 1999 Ryder Cup:

    Through four sessions, the Europeans had earned a four-point lead over the Americans at 10-6 heading into the final day of the 1999 matches. Based on history, this was an insurmountable advantage. No one believed the U.S. could overcome such a deficit — except for their captain, Ben Crenshaw. At the end of his press conference the night before Sunday’s singles matches, Crenshaw famously said the following: “I’m going to leave y’all with one thought. I’m a big believer in fate. I have a good feeling about this.”

    Total conviction and he made the players believe it.

  151. KPooL says:

    Lowetide: KPool: Welcome! I’m going to read your post again!

    *SWOONS*

    Thanks Rex, great outlook. What doesnt kill us, makes us Oiler fans… and such.

    I will likely try to keep posting, (at some kind of interval at least), but I fear it takes me way too long to formulate my thoughts in a coherent written way, at leat to a level that is worthy of this place!

  152. Numenius says:

    sliderule:
    The oilers are giving you hints as to why they won’t take Hanifin

    If you remember back when just before the draftmact scouted Nurse .He gushed how tough and competitive he was.You had to know that was their pick.

    Mact has scouted Hanifin and you haven’t heard a peep.

    To my eyes Hanifin plays very much like Petry and that is my hint as to who they won’t pick him.

    This is the best argument I’ve heard that they’re not planning to take Hanifin at 3.

    Crap.

    Though I seem to remember McT saying something good about Hanifin in passing. No gushing, but high regard at least. I’ll have to find that.

  153. fifthcartel says:

    The talk re: Hanifin and the way Oilers value defense makes so much sense and it’s horrible to think of.

    If this is the way they think then I hope they pick Strome of Marner. I really hope they don’t trade down to pick Provorov or pick Crouse at 3/4.

    They need to seriously re-evaluate the way they think about defense and hopefully Hanifin is too good to fall into the ‘soft’ and ‘not physical’ college defense the Oilers ship out for nothing.

  154. RexLibris says:

    KPooL: *SWOONS*

    Thanks Rex, great outlook. What doesnt kill us, makes us Oiler fans… and such.

    I will likely try to keep posting, (at some kind of interval at least), but I fear it takes me way too long to formulate my thoughts in a coherent written way, at leat to a level that is worthy of this place!

    Coherent thoughts?

    I thought you said you’d been reading this blog for awhile now.

    😉

  155. G Money says:

    KPooL,

    Ha, outstanding first post, welcome!

  156. PhrankLee says:

    KPooL: formulate my thoughts in a coherent written way, at leat to a level that is worthy of this place!

    ..Uh I’m no Cervantes either but take comfort that Ricki first communicated with a series of grunts and splashes in a muddy puddle.

    We take anyone who has a modicum of respect for other’s opinions, style and (mostly) content.

    I say this and, as usual, offer no example or content.

    I enjoyed your post.

  157. Talking Oilers, Laurent Brossoit, OKC Barons and Schultz on the Lowdown with Lowetide | The SuperFan says:

    […] including the goaltending moving forward, the Barons and the draft, among others. Check out this post from Lowetide that frames some of the discussion […]

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