OILERS AT CANUCKS, G82 2014-15

It is the final game day of the season, cloudy, melancholy, miserable. The Edmonton Oilers are spending a generation in the second division and there’s no relief in sight. Craig MacTavish says 80% of the roster is coming back, the team values the things readily available and casts aside that which has value, and there’s no time to think.

We’re one week from the draft lottery, about that time period away from finding out about Matt O’Connor and I’ll bet we see a European or two signed as well in the early days of summer.

BEST FIT FREE AGENTS

Edmonton’s needs are once again ‘up the middle’ and they are real and they are spectacular. Let’s have a lash at MacT’s summer shopping list and find the best solution in free agency.

MACT’S SUMMER 2015 SHOPPING LIST

  1. A No.1 goaltender. (Most obvious solution is Antti Niemi, many LT posters favor Michal Neuvirth).
  2. A veteran top-pairing defenseman. (Andrej Sekera would be a very nice solution).
  3. A replacement for Jeff Petry. (Jeff Petry is available. After that, Cody Franson is an interesting option)
  4. A 2line C with experience and the ability to play a two-way game. (Carl Soderberg is an underrated option, Derek Roy available).
  5. Trade Justin Schultz. (Not applicable to the current conversation)

Would the addition of Neuvirth, Sekera, Franson and Soderberg be enough? Goaltending is voodoo but I think we can count on a regression to the mean from Scrivens and Neuvirth could be a real find. I like the defensive additions, especially if it pushes back the veterans. The Soderberg addition would be a stroke of real hockey acumen, as he could play a variety of roles and move down the lineup when Leon Draisaitl emerges. Soderberg is badly undervalued by the boxcars because he played with role players and checkers on a transitional Bruins team this year.

There’s real value here, but the Oilers (since forever) don’t ‘get the guy’ on defense. I’d love to see them come home with Franson and Sekera, but suspect it’ll be Green and Adam McQuaid.

THE 50-MAN LIST (PROJECTED)

A few people have asked me about this list, what I see happening to the players Edmonton has to make a decision on this summer. Here’s a lash, with the players in question addressed:

  1. G Ben Scrivens
  2. G Laurent Brossoit
  3. G Tyler Bunz (RFA)
  4. G Frans Tuohimaa (RFA)
  5. D Nikita Nikitin
  6. D Justin Schultz (RFA—prediction: signed to a deal that reflects no growth)
  7. D Mark Fayne
  8. D Andrew Ference
  9. D Oscar Klefbom
  10. D Martin Marincin (RFA—prediction: signed to a one-year deal or traded)
  11. D Keith Aulie (RFA)
  12. D Brad Hunt (RFA)
  13. D Jordan Oesterle
  14. D Brandon Davidson (RFA—prediction: signed to a two-way deal, generous AHL portion)
  15. D Dillon Simpson
  16. D Martin Gernat (Note: If they can find a way, I think he’s dealt)
  17. D David Musil
  18. D Darnell Nurse
  19. D Ben Betker (newly signed)
  20. D Joey Laleggia (newly signed)
  21. C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
  22. C Anton Lander (newly signed and bona fide)
  23. C Boyd Gordon
  24. C Leon Draisaitl
  25. C Bogdan Yakimov
  26. C Jujhar Khaira
  27. C Travis Ewanyk
  28. C Kellen Lain (RFA)
  29. C Kyle Platzer (newly signed)
  30. L Taylor Hall
  31. L Benoit Pouliot
  32. L Matt Hendricks
  33. L Luke Gazdic
  34. L Matt Fraser (RFA—prediction: signed to a two-way deal)
  35. L Ryan Hamilton
  36. L Curtis Hamilton (RFA)
  37. L Mitch Moroz
  38. L Kale Kessy
  39. R Jordan Eberle
  40. R Nail Yakupov (RFA—prediction: signed to a one year bridge deal)
  41. R Teddy Purcell
  42. R Rob Klinkhammer
  43. R Iiro Pakarinen
  44. R Tyler Pitlick (RFA—prediction: signed to a reasonable one-way deal)
  45. R Greg Chase
  46. R Andrew Miller (RFA—prediction: signed to a two-way deal, generous AHL portion)

I have six RFA’s being sent away, plus Gernat if they can, but we’ll assume 40 men and true are on the roster when procurement hits. MacT has made decisions on a few of the 2013 draft picks but Marco Roy and Anton Slepyshev remain, plus Jackson Houck. John McCarron and Daniil Zharkov are distant bells that may come into view. Let’s say the Oilers sign Roy and Slepyshev, meaning they’re at 42. Add O’Connor, a Russian defender of some fame from the KHL, Neuvirth, Sekera, Franson and Soderberg? We’re at 48.

Three-for-one, dammit. Make it happen, MacT!

THE 60 BEST PLAYERS IN THE 2015 DRAFT

We’re about 11 weeks from my final list, so please understand it’s a process. You may have arrived at a certain conclusion but you’re simply going to have to give me time. This is a fascinating draft, each time I look at it there’s another layer to consider. I’m fairly convinced the Oilers will keep the Pittsburgh pick, no matter tonight’s result in the Penguins game. Why? There’s just too much. I know you don’t want to hear this, but the Edmonton Oilers—if they do things right—may walk away with three insane prospects.

This draft—seriously—has the potential to be the Oilers’ best draft since 1980. Honestly. Three bullets, ladies. Three.

  1. (1)C Connor McDavid, Erie Otters (OHL) 47GP, 33-40-73 (1.55 at even strength)
  2. (2)C Jack Eichel, Boston U (NCAA) 38GP, 16-27-43 (1.13 at even strength)
  3. (3)R Mitch Marner, London Knights (OHL) 63GP, 25-37-62 (0.98 at even strength)
  4. (5)D Noah Hanifin, Boston College (NCAA) 37GP, 4-9-13 (0.35 at even strength)
  5. (4)C Dylan Strome, Erie Otters (OHL) 68GP, 31-48-79 (1.16 at even strength)
  6. (6) D Ivan Provorov, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL) 60GP, 7-21-28 (0.47 at even strength)
  7. (7) R Evgeni Svechnikov, Cape Breton (QMJHL) 55GP, 22-29-51 (0.93 at even strength)
  8. (8) D Zach Werenski, Michigan (NCAA) 35GP, 6-7-13 (0.37 at even strength)
  9. (9) C Mathew Barzal, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL) 44GP, 9-25-34 (0.77 at even strength)
  10. (10) D Oliver Kylington, Farjestad (SHL). 18GP, 2-3-5 (.278)
  11. (11) R Mikko Rantanen, TPS Turku (SML) 56gP, 9-19-28 (.500)
  12. (15) R Timo Meier, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL) 61GP, 21-34-55 (0.90 at even strength)
  13. (18) C Travis Konecny, Ottawa 67’s (OHL) 60GP, 22-26-48 (0.80 at even strength)
  14. (14) C Jansen Harkins, Prince George Cougars (WHL) 70GP, 16-36-52 (0.74 at even strength)
  15. (12) C Nick Merkley, Kelowna Rockets (WHL) 72GP, 12-34-46 (0.64 at even strength)
  16. (13) C Anthony Beauvillier, Shawinigan Cataractes (QMJHL) 67GP, 22-21-43 (0.64 at even strength)
  17. (16) R Daniel Sprong, Charlottetown Islanders (QMJHL) 68GP, 23-24-47 (0.69 at even strength)
  18. (21) D Mitchell Vande Sompel, Oshawa (OHL) 58GP, 6-24-30 (0.52 at even strength)
  19. (17) C Kyle Connor, Youngstown (USHL) 50GP, 29-40-69 (1.38)
  20. (19) L Jake Debrusk, Swift Current (WHL) 72GP, 26-23-49 (0.68 at even strength)
  21. (24) D Ryan Pilon, Brandon (WHL) 68GP, 7-24-31 (0.46 at even strength)
  22. (20) D Jeremy Roy, Sherbrooke Phoenix (QMJHL) 46GP, 5-12-17 (0.37 at even strength)
  23. (25) C Andrew Mangiapane, Barrie (OHL) 68GP, 23-26-49 (0.72 at even strength)
  24. (26) G Daniel Vladar, Kladno (Czech 2) 8GP, 1.97 .933
  25. (28) C Filip Chlapik, Charlotteteown Islanders (QMJHL) 64GP, 23-22-45 (0.70 at even strength)
  26. (27) R Blake Speers, SSM Greyhounds (OHL) 57GP, 14-25-39 (0.68 at even strength)
  27. (23) L Lawson Crouse, Kingston Frontenacs (OHL) 56GP, 19-13-32 (0.57 at even strength)
  28. (22) C Pavel Zacha, Sarnia Sting (OHL). 37GP, 10-9-19 (0.51 at even strength)
  29. (35) L Paul Bittner, Portland Winterhawks (WHL)  66GP, 23-24-47 (0.71 at even strength)
  30. (30) D Travis Dermott, Erie Otters (OHL) 61GP, 4-19-23 (0.38 at even strength)
  31. (34) R Brock Boeser, Waterloo Blachawks (USHL) 53GP, 31-29-60 (1.13)
  32. (29) L Dennis Yan, Shawinigan Cataractes (QMJHL) 59GP, 33-31-64 (1.08)
  33. (31) R Jens Looke, Brynas (SHL) 43GP, 2-4-6 (.139)
  34. (40) D Ethan Bear, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL) 69GP, 13-25-38 (.551)
  35. (32) R Nikita Korostelev, Sarnia Sting (OHL) 55GP, 24-29-53 (0.96)
  36. (42) C-R Jeremy Bracco, USNTDP (USHL) 24GP, 14-18-32 (1.33)
  37. (33) D Jakub Zboril, Saint John Sea Dogs (QMJHL) 44GP, 13-20-33 (0.75)
  38. (38) D Thomas Chabot, Saint John Seadogs (QMJHL) 66GP, 12-29-41 (.621)
  39. (36) L Dmytro Timashov, Quebec Remparts (QMJHL) 66GP, 19-71-90 (1.36)
  40. (37) C Nathan Noel, Saint John Sea Dogs (QMJHL) 66GP, 24-38-62 (0.94)
  41. (39) D Nicolas Meloche, Baie-Comeau (QMJHL) 44GP, 10-24-34 (.773)
  42. (41) G Matej Tomek, Topeka Roadrunners (NAHL) 31GP, 1.71 .932
  43. (43) C Joel Eriksson Ek, Farjestad (QMJHL) 34GP, 4-2-6 (.176)
  44. (44) C-R Roope Hintz, Ilves (SML) 42GP, 5-12-17 (.405)
  45. (45) F Colin White, USNTDP (USHL) 20GP, 4-13-17 (.850)
  46. (46) D Matt Spencer, Peterborough Petes (OHL) 66GP, 6-24-30 (.455)
  47. (47) F Filip Ahl, HV-71 (SHL) 15GP, 0-2-2 (.133)
  48. (48) C Dante Salituro, Ottawa 67’s (OHL) 68GP, 37-41-78 (1.15)
  49. (49) L Ryan Gropp, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL) 67GP, 30-28-58 (.866)
  50. (50) L Vladimir Tkachev, Quebec Remparts (QMJHL) 46GP, 16-33-49 (1.07)
  51. (51) D Rasmus Andersson, Barrie (OHL) 66GP, 12-42-64 (.970)
  52. (52) C Tyler Soy, Victoria Royals (WHL) 69GP, 28-35-63 (.913)
  53. (53) C Nicolas Roy, Chicoutimi Sagueneens (QMJHL) 68GP, 16-34-50 (.735)
  54. (55) R Zach Senyshyn, SSM Greyhounds (OHL) 66GP, 26-19-45 (.682)
  55. (56) L Graham Knott, Niagra Ice Dogs (OHL) 59GP, 25-18-43 (.729)
  56. (57) G Mackenzie Blackwood, Barrie Colts (OHL) 51GP, 3.09 .906
  57. (58) D Noah Juulsen, Everett Silvertips (WHL) 68GP, 9-43-52 (.765)
  58. (59) D Jacob Larsson, Frolunda (SHL) 20GP, 1-2-3 (.150)
  59. (60) G Michael McNiven, Owen Sound Attack (OHL) 23GP, 2.78 .914
  60. (NR) L Erik Foley, Cedar Rapids (USHL)

The Oilers (as of this morning) choose No. 3, No. 13, No. 33, No. 59 and No. 77. If I were king of the world, I’d choose:

  • No. 3: R Mitch Marner
  • No. 13: D Oliver Kylington (a blue could fall, reasonably)
  • No. 33: C Nathan Noel
  • No. 59: D Ethan Bear
  • No. 77: G Matej Tomek

I love this draft. I didn’t choose a center in the first round and didn’t choose a big forward at all—why? The Oilers have center future covered in Nuge, Leon and Lander. The big forwards in this draft are (Strome excepted) badly overrated (I have Zacha and Crouse extremely low and suspect they’ll both be lower by my final list) considering the enormous offensive talent available. I did take two defensemen but these are outstanding talents.

The options are endless. If they take Hanifin, chances are Barzal would be available with the Pittsburgh pick! It sounds crazy but the Oilers should be able to draft an impact D and C in the first round no matter who  goes first!

Pittsburgh must lose tonight. MUST!

 

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

411 Responses to "OILERS AT CANUCKS, G82 2014-15"

« Older Comments
  1. justDOit says:

    maxwell_mischief:
    i hope the oil end up with steve downie at the end of the summer

    And a good morrow to you, sir.

  2. SwedishPoster says:

    So that was a game if shinny with NHL paychecks. But it was also a microcosm of this Oiler season since Nelson. Offense from our top guys, Yak-Roy line having fun offensively but being dodgy defensively, crappy crappy goaltending, young d-men showing both talent and flaws, terrible goaltending, Lander showing signs that give hope for the future, a blown lead in the third period and did I mention awful goaltending?

    An interesting stat when the season is a wrap is the one for %-age of wins when leading after two periods, we’re league worst at 63%, next is Buffalo at 64.7 and the next jump is up to 75%. When the difference is 12% up to the 28th placed team you are just pathetic at keeping the lead.
    I think a lot has to do with goaltending when trying to keep a lead, we know what score effects does to the shot clock and when the shots pile up you need your goalie to step up.
    Thing is with guys like Hall, Ebs and Yak in the line up who are all dangerous off the rush we should create a lot of chances on the counter attack when the other team starts pushing forward. They are ofc all useless defensively and our struggling transition game ofc doesn’t help but we should have the horses to get insurance goals if the goalie and D can hold the fort.

    Oh well there’s always next year.

  3. Woodguy says:

    elphy101:
    In trying to determine, what is a solid metric for when an AHL goalie has graduated to the NHL. I went thru a number of the top goalies in recent years that have been in the AHL, here are the figures;

    Corey Crawford
    AHL at 20 years old, 48 games played, 0.898%.
    21 years old, 60 games played, 0.909%
    22 years old, 55 games played, 0.907%
    23 years old, 47 games played, 0.917%
    24 years old, 45 games played, 0.909% and then graduated to NHL starter with 57 games

    Devan Dubnyk
    20 years old, ECHL, 43 gp, 0.921%
    21 years old,, 33 gp, 0.904%
    22 years old,62 gp, 0.906%
    23 years old, 33 gp, 0.915% and then graduated to NHL shared starter with 35 games

    Cam Talbot
    22 years old,, 22 GP, 0.902%
    23 years old,, 33 GP, 0.913%
    24 years old,55 gp, 0.918% and then graduated to NHL backup with 21 games

    Cory Schneider
    21 years old, 36 GP, 0.916%
    22 years old, 40 GP, 0.928%
    23 years old, 60 gp, 0.919% and graduated to NHL Backup with 25 games

    Pekka RInne
    23 years old, 51 GP, 0.904%
    24 years old, 29 GP, 0.920%
    25 years old, 65 GP, 0.908% and graduated to NHL starter with 52 games

    Semyon Varlamov
    20 years old, 27 gp, 0.916%and then graduated to NHL backup 26 games.

    Laurent Brossoit
    21 years old, ECHL, 35 GP, 0.923%
    22 years old, 49 GP, 0.916%

    Awesome stuff.

    If you combine it with the information we learned from this piece: http://hockey-graphs.com/2014/03/21/how-well-do-goalies-age-a-look-at-a-goalie-aging-curve/

    Its points to starting Brossoit as the backup at the very least next year.

    Probably do him some good to go through a AHL season as a starter to get used to the workload, but he played 25 straight games this year, so it might be moot.

    Get him up here!

    Goalies don’t get better.

  4. Woodguy says:

    Attn: Gmoney

    Can you run this on your site?

    Score Adjusted Corsi of playoff teams vs other playoff teams only.

  5. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    SwedishPoster:

    Oh well there’s always next year.

    “We’ll always have Paris.”

  6. SwedishPoster says:

    Woodguy,

    There must be something skewing those stats because they don’t make sense at all, either the fact they went so far back or they haven’t looked at the number of games the goalies played each year, a 940 S% over 4 games isn’t saying much, really can only look at the S% over 40 or at least 30 games if you want any kind of decent picture.
    I did a quick look through every goalie who played over 45 games this season and pretty much everyone got better(the majority) or stayed about the same after 25. It was also a very obvious how the workload increased at about 25 for most goalies.

    So there’s something off. Maybe this held true 10 years ago, doubt it does today. That most goalies start falling off around 35 is probably true though. But Loungo this season, Hasek and Thomas after him, has shown that you can stay relevant after that age as well. As a GM I’d be careful signing big contracts after 35-36 snice those guys are the outliers.

  7. SwedishPoster says:

    Oh I looked at the teams winning % when leading after the first period. 43,5% for the Oilers, dead last,closest team Arizona with 52,2 then Buffalo with 56.3. It’s just sad, the middle of the league is around 75%.

  8. Doubting Olive says:

    justDOit:
    Follow

    Cassie Campbell Verified account
    ‏@CassieCampbell
    Players confirmed for Team Canada at WC so far…Hall, Eberle, RNH, Seguin, Spezza, Ekblad, Mike Smith, Giroux, Duchene @Sportsnet

    Coach Mike Keenan.

  9. Woodguy says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Woodguy,

    There must be something skewing those stats because they don’t make sense at all, either the fact they went so far back or they haven’t looked at the number of games the goalies played each year, a 940 S% over 4 games isn’t saying much, really can only look at the S% over 40 or at least 30 games if you want any kind of decent picture.
    I did a quick look through every goalie who played over 45 games this season and pretty much everyone got better(the majority) or stayed about the same after 25. It was also a very obvious how the workload increased at about 25 for most goalies.

    So there’s something off. Maybe this held true 10 years ago, doubt it does today. That most goalies start falling off around 35 is probably true though. But Loungo this season, Hasek and Thomas after him, has shown that you can stay relevant after that age as well. As a GM I’d be careful signing big contracts after 35-36 snice those guys are the outliers.

    Did you adjust SV% every season based on NHL average?

    The NHL average has gone up over time so you need to adjust SV% to reflect that.

    ie.) Luongo’s .931 in 03/04 would probably get adjusted to ~.937 or so

  10. gogliano says:

    Drais with 3 assists last night, including a ClutchAssist in OT.

  11. SwedishPoster says:

    Woodguy: Did you adjust SV% every season based on NHL average?

    The NHL average has gone up over time so you need to adjust SV% to reflect that.

    ie.) Luongo’s .931 in 03/04 would probably get adjusted to ~.937 or so

    Nah just looked through them quickly. That might change perspective somewhat but I still don’t see the steady drop off shown in the stats above.
    Sv% sways from season to season, the best goalies rarely drops below the .915 mark or near that but from season to season it can go from 930 to 916 and back to 927, you can probably get weird numbers pretty easily especially if a 5 game season counts as equalto a 73 game season.

« Older Comments

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca