RE 14-15 JORDAN EBERLE: BLUE SKY

Jordan Eberle is a winner. People probably miss that because he’s on a diabolical team filled with also-rans and never-weres but it’s clear as day. He was found money in the 2008 draft and despite a contract beyond dear he delivers in the areas that are required and doesn’t take any days off. His career is beginning to resemble Johnny Bucyk’s early years in Boston: Consistent excellence noticed by no one at all.

RE 14-15: 80GP 30-38-68 .850

ACTUAL 14-15: 81, 24-39-63 .778

JORDAN EBERLE BOXCARS, THREE YEAR TREND

eberle boxcars three year trend 2014-15

JORDAN EBERLE FANCY STATS, THREE YEAR TREND

eberle 2014-15 three year trend

  1. By jove, he’s consistent! He really is.
  2. With all that consistency, one would think your guesses would be at least reasonable. And we’re off! Nothing wrong with the RE, that’s in the range. Jordan Eberle really is a very good hockey player. I think people may be frustrated he’s not posting 80 points but he’s a 60+ point winger in a low-scoring league.
  3. Where does that put him league-wide? Tied for No. 6 overall among RW’s.
  4. That’s damn good. Yeah, very good NHL player. Plus he’s still young, turns 25 in May. We should see quality production through the end of the decade and hopefully beyond.
  5. Will Yakupov catch Eberle? I don’t know. He should based on draft pedigree but Eberle was a better player at 20. We’ll talk more in the Yak RE. Seems we’ve been waiting forever but it’s really only 2.5 seasons.
  6. You always liked Eberle. Sure, he’s a good hockey player and goals are dear.
  7. Plus Stu MacGregor drafted him and you’re blind as a bat in that regard. I don’t think Stu MacGregor needs to be defended on drafting Eberle No. 22 overall. That’s good value.
  8. Eberle flourished because of Nelson. Eberle was absolutely dealing with injury when Eakins was coach, go back and look at the video. He couldn’t lift the puck for love nor money. The day before Todd Nelson went solo, Eberle’s boxcars were 35GP, 6-14-20. After that? 46GP, 18-25-43. It is absolutely impossible to ignore, unless you choose to do so.
  9. Eberle still needs Hall, though. Not so! The young man hit 49.6 5×5 Corsi for % w/o Hall. That’s a splendid number for him.
  10. Will they put the Hall-Nuge-Eberle line back together next year? I don’t think they have to, because Benoit Pouliot can play and play well.
  11. Impressive! Potentially huge! If Pouliot-Nuge-Eberle can punish opponents, then maybe Hall-?-Yakupov/someone can form a second significant line. The key though is that you’d need a faster center than Derek Roy. I’m hoping Soderberg but maybe they’ll aim very high and the Oilers will come home with something splendid from the draft.
  12. What can’t Eberle do? Play center, push the river like Hall, intimidate physically, play an aggressive and effective two-way game. He’s also mature and not physically able to win a lot of battles. He’s quick but I’m not certain he’s strong, like really strong, and at 25 he’s a mature player.
  13. What can Eberle do? Score goals, help the power play and, this is important, play with elite-level skill and look like he belongs. It’s a monster deal, getting a player like that in the later part of Round 1.
  14. He’s going to be the “Smyth” Oiler who stays while others leave, isn’t he? Yes, I think so. Eberle has five seasons in now, one of them lockout impacted, and has 120 goals. He’s already No. 14 on the all-time goal-scoring list and he’ll catch Todd Marchant (136) and Ales Hemsky (142) this season. If he makes it another five he’ll pass Paul Coffey at No. 6 overall (209) and two years later he’ll be in Ryan Smyth (296) territory. Beyond that, he’ll be facing four legends named Messier, Anderson, Kurri and Gretzky.
  15. Will he win any Stanley’s? Will Darryl Katz own the team?
  16. Why blame Katz? WHY blame Katz? He owns the damn team, dummy! The Calgary turnaround should shame him and the coming Toronto turnaround should do it, too. Darryl Katz is basically an absentee owner. Shameful.
  17. What are Oilers fans going to do? We’ll talk later but my suspicion is that MacT has one more summer. Katz has a brand new building and is going to be asking for miles more money per ticket. There has to be some sign of  improvement or the franchise is going to have a helluva time getting tickets sold. People are beyond pissed. I get emails and texts that hiss and they come from season ticket holders. This isn’t some wing nut in the back row, either. I genuinely believe there are people of importance in this community who are fed up with this mess. It might get very ugly for the Edmonton Oilers in the Capital if this hopelessness continues. The brand is in peril. Seriously.
  18. Why doesn’t he fire everyone? Toronto did! The issue we have currently is this: fans want an immediate turn around and Mr. Katz has endorsed continued growth via draft and development. We’ll talk about this at length during the Katz and MacT RE’s.
  19. What is Eberle’s role next season? You saw it, above. Smile for the camera, make sure Hall is happy, score 63 points, 2.00/60 at 5×5 and one day maybe he’ll get into a playoff game.
  20. Would you trade him? If the price was right but we don’t know what is out there. Stay the course, his value as a player is somewhat dictated by the contract. If you really have to move him, and I don’t see any reason to, then wait until next summer when the owners have buggered themselves into a $60M cap. You could probably get a ton for Eberle then.
  21. Maybe Malkin! Now you’re thinking.
  22. Why this song? It’s a grand song about good things. Blue skies, love, spring, promise.
  23. That’s Eberle? Since the moment they called his name.

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190 Responses to "RE 14-15 JORDAN EBERLE: BLUE SKY"

  1. Lowetide says:

    Guests today: 10:05 Scott Burnside, ESPN; 10:25 Bob Weeks, ScoreGolf; 11AM Dennis King; 11:25 Former NHLer Denis Savard.

  2. frjohnk says:

    Eberle is a beauty!

  3. sliderule says:

    There have been comments on the Gore saying that the fans turned on Petry and that is partly why he wasn’t signed..The extension has been made that the fans are turning on Schultz ,Marincin and will soon on Klefbom.

    I have no idea whether fans are or will turn on those players but why should management respond to fans view on players.I have friends that can’t stand Eberles game or Hall and Yakupov is a bust.I don’t even listen to them let alone management listening.

    I think that management pretty well follows what I think they should do and use their judgement rather than fan sentiment.So when you see them trading players like Poti Gilbert and Petry it’s because in their Judgement these players can’t cut it in their world.

    So ,it’s not the fans that are dumping these players its management.

    Going forward how does that make you feel.

  4. Woodguy says:

    Love the RE: series.

    Eberle is a fine player and if he won more board battles he’d walk on water in Edmonton.

    Right now he almost does, but sinks up to his knees.

  5. smellyglove says:

    Nice post, LT. Will you do a post on RE versus actual with all the numbers in one place? Always liked Eberle, but the long knives come out for him from the fan base because he doesn’t hit.

    I would love to see him in the playoffs, him and Hall. Sadly, I actually believe one or both will asked to be traded before the Oilers ever make it to the second season.

  6. wheatnoil says:

    Goodness I long for the day when this RE series doesn’t start before half the league ends its year.

    It’s interesting that a guy who was made famous by scoring key goals at key times now is perhaps undervalued at times because he’s so damn quietly consistent. 6th in the league among RWs is a big deal! Imagine what he could do if there where two or three more D-men who could get him the puck in the offensive zone.

  7. Ben says:

    Yakupov signing a short term bridge-deal, says Kypreos.

    Would be great if they could get 2 years at around 3mil, but suspect it’ll be 1.

  8. Pouzar says:

    He scored 28 goals and 65 pts under Vader last year. Pretty damn good.

  9. Woodguy says:

    *WARNING SPAM*

    New post at BecauseOilers *faints in surprise*

    I examine the 1st round match ups using FancyStats, goaltending and injuries.

    I also dole out iffy betting advice.

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2015/04/fancy-stats-and-2015-stanley-cup.html

    Any and all RT of my original tweet are appreciated.

    *END SPAM*

  10. Ben says:

    Aha – now Dreger saying 2 years. If a reasonable number: excellent deal.

  11. Clay says:

    Bohologo: With apologies to Lyndon Johnson, if Eberle walked on water, certain fans would exclaim and columnists would run a story the next day: Eberle Can’t Swim

    Gold and quoted for truth.

  12. season not played says:

    Sometimes it really seems like you are baiting me, I swear….

    Care to elaborate on what qualifies Eberle as a winner exactly?

    Is it his last two years of junior when he was the ring leader of a talented Regina team that couldn’t qualify for the playoffs or is it his last five years at the bottom of the league with Edmonton?

    And this not taking days off business. Does that include the games when he doesn’t back check or even attempt to engage physically?

    He is a decent scorer and that is the toughest thing to do, but I would argue that there are certain issues with his game that inhibit winning. It’s like Willis pointed out the other day, I believe after they were bombarded by San Jose. He played like a junior player trying to pad his stats, among other guys doing the same thing. Unfortunately that isn’t an isolated case in the career of Jordan Eberle to date.

  13. slopitch says:

    Yes. Bridge deal. Dont know the number yet but good sign. Good for Yak as well.

    Now time to trade Jultz for Coutourier. Win lottery. Sign Green. Trade for Seabrook. Trade for Anisimov. Summer of MacT!

  14. bendelson says:

    Blue Sky. Music!

    ” It’s a grand song about good things. Blue skies, love, spring, promise ”

    We won’t tell everyone that sadly, the song also came to represent heartbreak, bitterness and loss for Dickey Betts…

    Of course, without Blue Sky there could be no Jessica.

  15. frjohnk says:

    “3. Where does that put him league-wide? Tied for No. 6 overall among RW’s.”

    Factoring in how brutal his start was because of injuries and I would say coaching, ending the season with those stats, this is a sublime talent. One of the best right wingers in the game.

    Every player has warts and Eberle is no exception, but he is part of the solution here in Edmonton.

    Surround him and gang with good support players and Eberle will consistently put up wicked numbers.

  16. frjohnk says:

    ✔ @EdmontonOilers
    Follow
    The #Oilers have agreed to terms with forward Nail Yakupov on a two-year contract extension.

  17. stush18 says:

    season not played:
    Sometimes it really seems like you are baiting me, I swear….

    Care to elaborate on what qualifies Eberle as a winner exactly?

    Is it his last two years of junior when he was the ring leader of a talented Regina team that couldn’t qualify for the playoffs or is it his last five years at the bottom of the league with Edmonton?

    And this not taking days off business. Does that include the games when he doesn’t back check or even attempt to engage physically?

    He is a decent scorer and that is the toughest thing to do, but I would argue that there are certain issues with his game that inhibit winning. It’s like Willis pointed out the other day, I believe after they were bombarded by San Jose. He played like a junior player trying to pad his stats, among other guys doing the same thing. Unfortunately that isn’t an isolated case in the career of Jordan Eberle to date.

    I dont necessarily disagree with you, however i think thats why splitting up the nuge hall ebs line worked so well. Pouliot has no trouble fighting the board battles and nuge back checks like a demon. And thats why hall-lander-whoever works because hall doesnt have to be the responsible one. Same with yaks line, although i expect that why they get caved in, because they have three players who are similiar in style.

  18. Surly says:

    $2.5 AAV for Yak. Good deal.

  19. su_dhillon says:

    Surly:
    $2.5 AAV for Yak.Good deal.

    Like it and like that it got done so quickly. Good for Yak, one less thing to worry about over the summer, can focus on just getting better.

  20. Evilas says:

    Surly:
    $2.5 AAV for Yak.Good deal.

    Wow! For some reason I was thinking about Yaks new deal before I got out of bed this morning, I had 3 x $2.5 mil in mind, but this is still excellent. I have a feeling Roy wants a lot more than Edm wants to pay, so if they do sign him it will be later in the summer, I don’t expect we will hear anything until later in July/early Aug. If they can get Soderberg instead, music!

  21. Klima's_Bucket says:

    I wonder how the contract is structured. If Yakupov gets 1 million in year one and 4 million in year two that will make his qualifying offer interesting down the road…

  22. Bag of Pucks says:

    If the goal is still to build a team capable of winning the Cup, and yes it’s quite likely Oiler mgmt are now pursuing goals that are far less lofty, they’ll need a true outscorer RW that can play the toughs.

    If Yak can ever put it all together, he actually projects more favourably in that role than Ebs. Yak can win board battles now and if he continues to make progress positionally, he could become a decent two way player. Big IFs all. But if it happened, you could play him gainst the toughs and trot Ebs out in a Daniel Sedin type role to feast on softer comps. I like Eberle in that role.

    Ebs DOES get lazy on the backcheck, but less so by my eye under Nelson. Suspect a lot of that has to do with the player being able to see a light at the end of the tunnel in terms of the losing coming to an end.

    This is where Eakins went off the rails imo. You can commit to a longterm process but if the participants to that process don’t see incremental improvement eventually, they will revert to old habits. In Jordan’s case, that means cheating for offense.

    And ultimately, that what’s Eberle symbolizes to me. Consistent offensive production, albeit production that is sometimes earned at the expense of the team game.

  23. OilSafety says:

    slopitch,

    Agree 90%, not sure on green. I would add action of some kind to reduce the nikitin ference effect next season not sure what.

    Don’t know why more people aren’t talking about Anisimov, I would love him with yak.

    Great news about yak.

  24. russ99 says:

    Great signing for Yak.

    I also gotta love how MacT got this done early instead of dilly-dallying and caving at the last minute.

    Could he have learned from the Gagner experience?

    If so, there’s the slightest glimmer hope he may turn it around…

  25. frjohnk says:

    BLOG: Schultz on getting stronger
    http://oilers.nhl.com/club/blogpost.htm?id=38855

    The improvement he talked about starts with the battles in the corners and along the wall. That is an area of Schultz’s game that he wants to improve. Oilers Interim Coach Todd Nelson sees that as an area for growth as well.

    “Everybody can up their battle level and that’s one thing we talked with Justin about,” said Nelson. “He’s been making the conscience effort to do so. You can see him, with the battle drills in practice, make an effort to get better. That has improved, especially over the last couple of weeks. That’s a focal point.”

    Schultz getting stronger this summer and having a coach that instills hard work and practices at a high level will, in my mind, help Schultz make the step in becoming a better d man.

  26. russ99 says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    If the goal is still to build a team capable of winning the Cup, and yes it’s quite likely Oiler mgmt are now pursuing goals that are far less lofty, they’ll need a true outscorer RW that can play the toughs.

    If Yak can ever put it all together, he actually projects more favourably in that role than Ebs. Yak can win board battles now and if he continues to make progress positionally, he could become a decent two way player. Big IFs all. But if it happened, you could play him gainst the toughs and trot Ebs out in a Daniel Sedin type role to feast on softer comps. I like Eberle in that role.

    Ebs DOES get lazy on the backcheck, but less so by my eye under Nelson. Suspect a lot of that has to do with the player being able to see a light at the end of the tunnel in terms of the losing coming to an end.

    This is where Eakins went off the rails imo. You can commit to a longterm process but if the participants to that process don’t see incremental improvement eventually, they will revert to old habits. In Jordan’s case, that means cheating for offense.

    And ultimately, that what’s Eberle symbolizes to me. Consistent offensive production, albeit production that is sometimes earned at the expense of the team game.

    Each player is different. The key is to have players who are good at back checking to balance out the game of the players who are weak at it.

    This is our failure in how we constructed the roster. Not forcing guys to “hit someone every shift” until it sinks in – and it may never will.

  27. G Money says:

    frjohnk: Schultz getting stronger this summer and having a coach that instills hard work and practices at a high level will, in my mind, help Schultz make the step in becoming a d man.

    ftfy

  28. godot10 says:

    //He was found money in the 2008 draft and despite a contract beyond dear//

    Why do you and others keep perpetuating the myth about the contract?

    Pat Kane over $10 million. Perry is at $8.5 million. Kessel is at $8 million. Eberle at $6 million is now a value contract for a top quartile 1st line RW.

    Hall’s contract is a super value contract.

  29. Bag of Pucks says:

    frjohnk:
    BLOG: Schultz on getting stronger
    http://oilers.nhl.com/club/blogpost.htm?id=38855

    The improvement he talked about starts with the battles in the corners and along the wall. That is an area of Schultz’s game that he wants to improve. Oilers Interim Coach Todd Nelson sees that as an area for growth as well.

    “Everybody can up their battle level and that’s one thing we talked with Justin about,” said Nelson. “He’s been making the conscience effort to do so. You can see him, with the battle drills in practice, make an effort to get better. That has improved, especially over the last couple of weeks. That’s a focal point.”

    Schultz getting stronger this summer and having a coach that instills hard work and practices at a high level will, in my mind, help Schultz make the step in becoming a better d man.

    Wow, MacT gets Nail’s signature on a reasonable deal – quickly. And Jultz is talking about wanting to hit the weight room this offseason.

    Very un-oiler like.

    The road to hell paved with good intentions?

  30. Ducey says:

    Nail Yakupov age 21 $2.5 million/ season beginning next year 81gp 14 19 33 pts

    Ales Hemsky age 31 $4.0 million next 2 years 76gp 11 21 32pts

    Ted Purcell age 29 $4.5 million next year 82gp 12 22 34 pts

    In retrospect the Hemsky trade was a decent one. Another trade that was criticized early on that actually turned out pretty good.

  31. Woodguy says:

    Bag of Pucks: Wow, MacT gets Nail’s signature on a reasonable deal – quickly. And Jultz is talking about wanting to hit the weight room this offseason.

    Very un-oiler like.

    The road to hell paved with good intentions?

    It’s the off season.

    Of course all the Oilers news is good.

    It’s in season that’s a disaster.

    Ha!

    Actually love the Yak deal.

    Right money, right term.

    Will have 2 RFA years left when it runs out and sets up perfectly for a long term deal if both sides want it.

    Maybe our children is learning?

  32. Woodguy says:

    Ducey:
    Nail Yakupovage 21 $2.5 million/ season beginning next year 81gp 14 19 33 pts

    Ales Hemsky age 31 $4.0 million next year 76gp 11 21 32pts

    Ted Purcell age 29 $4.5 million next year 82gp 12 22 34 pts

    In retrospect the Hemsky trade was a decent one.Another trade that was criticized early on that actually turned out pretty good.

    Comparing RFA deal with a 21 year old to a UFA deal for a 30 year old?

    You know that’s apples and oranges.

  33. OilSafety says:

    Mac T speaks at 2 pm.

  34. Numenius says:

    frjohnk:
    “3. Where does that put him league-wide? Tied for No. 6 overall among RW’s.”

    Factoring in how brutal his start was because of injuries and I would say coaching, ending the season with those stats, this is a sublime talent.One of the best right wingers in the game.

    Every player has warts and Eberle is no exception, but he is part of the solution here in Edmonton.

    Surround him and gang with good support players and Eberle will consistently put up wicked numbers.

    Nicely said. Hope he sticks around for a long time. What a high end player and character.

    Also, good to hear that Yak signed. The speed at which it happened suggests he’s not the type to nickel and dime about his contracts. Love that guy.

    While I’m at it, I just listened to Nelson’s year-end interview, and I couldn’t help but think what a class act. He was baited to praise his OKC goaltenders over Fasth and Scrivens and he didn’t take it, but rather pointed out that all of them had played well at different times of the year, throwing no one under the bus. I’ll be disappointed if he’s not the HC next year.

    Watching Schultz’s interview, it was refreshing to see that he seemed to have new insight into and awareness of his weaknesses. I got the sense that he still has a ways to go in this awareness, but it was definitely progress.

  35. su_dhillon says:

    So on the heels of the Leafs firing 18 scouts do we know if the Oilers forensic audit resulted in any changes besides the Bob Green promotion? Can we expect any announcements during Mactavish avail?

  36. leadfarmer says:

    I don’t say many positive things about MacT, but that is a beautiful contract. I though negotiations with Larionov would have lasted all summer long.

  37. leadfarmer says:

    su_dhillon,

    Forensic audit revealed we need another forensic audit

  38. su_dhillon says:

    leadfarmer:
    su_dhillon,

    Forensic audit revealed we need another forensic audit

    Well at least it’s on brand….Rebuild the Rebuild!

  39. justDOit says:

    OilSafety:
    Mac T speaks at 2 pm.

    And afterwards, Lowe will pat him on the back and give him a yummy treat – ‘awww, whoseagoodboy?’

  40. JAG-041 says:

    Hey all,
    Someone posted about another person trying to find a defence statistic that better describes save percentages on here a few days ago
    It has to do with lateral puck movement and they were speaking about Dubnyk’s comeback this year
    Does anyone remember who it was and does anyone have a link?
    I can’t find it

    Thanks

  41. Ducey says:

    Woodguy: Comparing RFA deal with a 21 year old to a UFA deal for a 30 year old?

    You know that’s apples and oranges.

    Not looking at it that way.
    1) If you can get a 21 yr old to get the same production as the 30 yr old at 60% of the cost its good roster management.
    2) keeping Hemsky would have been a bad idea. Yak has replaced him and still has much upside. Purcell has replced Hemsky too. People say the Purcell deal is too expensive (he is, and so is Hemsky). But he is off the books in a yr. Hemsky has another 2.

  42. Numenius says:

    godot10: Pat Kane over $10 million. Perry is at $8.5 million. Kessel is at $8 million. Eberle at $6 million is now a value contract for a top quartile 1st line RW.

    I’d say Eberle is fulfilling his contract, but would hesitate to say it’s a value contract.

    Your argument, at any rate, is weak.

    First, Eberle is not as good as any of the players you mention.

    Second, all of those are solely UFA contracts, which, as you regularly point out, are very different from mostly RFA contracts like Eberle’s.

    Apples and oranges.

  43. frjohnk says:

    Rangers are a “cap hell” team next year.
    17 players signed for about $60 Million.

    Notable UFA is St Louis,

    Notable RFA’s are Stepan, Hagelin, Miller

    Stepan got 3m this year, Hagelin got paid 2.2M while Miller was on his ELC at .894M.

    Those 3 will probably cost (Stepan 4M+, Hagelin 3.5M+ and Miller 2M. That’s about 9M or so)

    That puts them right at the cap, still with 3 players to sign.

    On D they have

    Girardi at 5.5M limited NTC
    McDonaugh at 4.7Million
    Boyle at 4.5 Million for 1 more year NMC
    Staal at 5.7 Million for 6 years NMC starts July 1
    Yandle at 2.6M for 1 year
    Klein at 2.9M for 3 years

    That’s 26 Million for their top 6 D.
    Girardi and Boyle wouldn’t move because of their trade clauses
    McDonaugh is their best D man on a great contract. They are not trading him
    Yandle ( Yotes retained half salary) and Klein are on good contracts.

    Staal is the 3rd highest player on the Rangers and his NMC does not kick in until July 1st.

    I wonder if there is a way to get him and Talbot structured in a trade with the Pens pick and I hate to throw him in a trade deal because he is every one but Marincin. Rangers would need a D man coming back on a value deal. Marincin will probably get signed for around 1M.

    Staal might be the D that shakes loose from the Rangers.

  44. Bag of Pucks says:

    Woodguy: It’s the off season.

    Of course all the Oilers news is good.

    It’s in season that’s a disaster.

    Ha!

    Actually love the Yak deal.

    Right money, right term.

    Will have 2 RFA years left when it runs out and sets up perfectly for a long term deal if both sides want it.

    Maybe our children is learning?

    If this org does anything other than cut bait with Schultz this offseason, I’m not convinced mgmt is learning.

    Two years in as a pro and Jultz finally realizes he needs to hit the weight room and win more board battles? Kind of reinforces the fact that he does nothing in a hurry.

    Lousy slapper. Poor puck sense. Overrated passer. Consistent lack of compete. Zero aggression. Cup winners don’t keep passengers like this on the roster. The time to trade him is yesterday.

    Justin is as big a disappointment as Yak. The difference is how hard Yak is working to get better.

  45. OilSafety says:

    justDOit,

    I guess that’s a better illustration than lowe with his hand in his mac t puppet or oz behind the curtain. I honestly think mac t is his own man. As many on here have asserted, who would take the job otherwise. At least with the yak news there’s some positive to point to.

    I would love to see mac t take some detailed accountability for 2c this season though.

  46. Ducey says:

    Numenius: I’d say Eberle is fulfilling his contract, but wouldn’t say it’s a value contract.

    Your argument, at any rate, is weak.

    First, Eberle is not as good as any of the players you mention.

    Second, as you regularly point out, all of those are solely UFA contracts, which are very different from mostly RFA contracts like Eberle’s.

    Apples and oranges.

    A lot of fruit being compared here this morning 🙂

    The question is who would you rather have?

    Kessel 82gp 25 36 61pts
    Ebs 81gp 24 39 63 pts

    Looks like apples to apples to me. One of them is more expensive and is rotten inside.

  47. thejonrmcleod says:

    Some more good news:

    Ryan Rishaug @TSNRyanRishaug
    Anton Slepyshev 88th overall in ’13 is at Russian camp for Worlds. Decent season in KHL, reasonable chance he comes over next season.

  48. Southern Oil says:

    Love the RE: series as well. LT – amazing that you can keep us all hooked on everything Oilers given the stink that surrounds this club. I also think your alter ego needs a name.
    Great contract for Yak – I’m surprised Larionov & MacT got it done this quickly. As for the Schultz article – not surprising the Oilers are releasing things that try to paint him in a positive light. As much as I would love to see him moved out of town, he’s going no where.

  49. justDOit says:

    OilSafety: who would take the job otherwise

    On the other hand, who would turn down 1 of 30 jobs in the world? I know I wouldn’t, even if the kid with the orange afro has final say on my decisions.

    I too would like to think MacT is his own man, it’s just that there’s been too much crazy through three mgmt regimes for this franchise.

  50. Numenius says:

    Ducey: A lot of fruit being compared here this morning 🙂

    Yes, that wasn’t an accident. 🙂

    The question is who would you rather have?

    Kessel 82gp 25 36 61pts
    Ebs 81gp 24 39 63 pts

    Looks like apples to apples to me. One of them is more expensive and is rotten inside.

    Kessel is certainly the one who is most debatable in terms of quality. Longer term I’d rather have Eberle, but if it was for a one-off playoff run right now (or maybe last year), I’d choose Kessel.

    But the second point still stands that in terms of salary, whether you’re RFA or UFA makes an enormous difference.

    That’s why even with Kessel, if you’re comparing salary it’s apples and oranges.

  51. Evilas says:

    frjohnk,

    Excuse my ignorance because I really don’t know what Marc Staal brings, certainly not offense….for that value he is a much more expensive Petry. I would rather hang on to Marincin. My thinking is any salary over $4.5mill/yr for a Dman should bring with it some consistent offense (10 goals/20 assists).

    What does he bring that justifies this salary and cost to acquire? Wouldn’t it be more palatable to Offer Sheet Dougie Hamilton and see where that goes and go hard after 2 of Sekera/Ehrhoff/Petry. What about Bellemore as a better Aulie?

    What are the consensus top 6 UFA options for the Oil as D targets? No Mike Green, please.

    What kind of Offer Sheet would it take to pry Hamilton from the Bruins? This for me is the kind of Bold attempts that I would like to see.

  52. Numenius says:

    frjohnk: Staal might be the D that shakes loose from the Rangers.

    How much better is Staal than Petry? I ask because I’m genuinely curious and don’t know. He’s in the tough quadrant, but Girardi and McDonagh still get tougher comp and he has worse CorsiRel than McDonagh.

    Might it be better just to sign Petry?

  53. Pouzar says:

    Who gives a **** HOW Eberle got his contract or what his contract was when he got his deal.
    Fact of the matter is, it’s damn good value and only gets better going forward (Hello Cap).

  54. Melman says:

    frjohnk,

    Never really seen him play. How good is he really? Can he skate and is he fully recovered from his eye injury?

  55. Soup Fascist says:

    Numenius: Yes, that wasn’t an accident.

    Kessel is certainly the one who is most debatable in terms of quality. Longer term I’d rather have Eberle, but if it was for a one-off playoff run right now (or maybe last year), I’d choose Kessel.

    But the second point still stands that in terms of salary, whether you’re RFA or UFA makes an enormous difference.

    That’s why even with Kessel, if you’re comparing salary it’s apples and oranges.

    If Kessel is in the conversation then “banana” has to be the fruit of choice. Dude is not wired right.

  56. Numenius says:

    Soup Fascist: If Kessel is in the conversation then “banana” has to be the fruit of choice.Dude is not wired right.

    I hear you and agree.

  57. frjohnk says:

    Numenius: How much better is Staal than Petry? I ask because I’m genuinely curious and don’t know. He’s in the tough quadrant, but Girardi and McDonagh still get tougher comp and he has worse CorsiRel than McDonagh.

    Might it be better just to sign Petry?

    Yeah, if we can sign Petry, Id say do it instead of trading assets for Staal and Talbot.

    I don’t think the gap between Staal and Petry is much, but there is a gap. I ran some numbers between the two a few months ago, and they suggested Petry was a good number 3 D man while Staal was in the number 2/3 D man range.

  58. Bag of Pucks says:

    russ99: Each player is different. The key is to have players who are good at back checking to balance out the game of the players who are weak at it.

    This is our failure in how we constructed the roster. Not forcing guys to“hit someone every shift” until it sinks in – and it may never will.

    Agreed. I’m not advocating trying to morph Ebs into a board battler. For a Cup contender, I like Ebs as a 2nd line outscorer against soft comps. Could see him having the type of playoff some year that Gaborik had last season.

    That said, one of the big problems with this roster is not enough complete players and far too many one dimensional players requiring sheltered deployment.

    This team will finally compete when we can simultaneously ice 5 players capable of playing a full 200 ft game against tough comps. Eb’s unwillingness to kill it on the backcheck doesn’t put him in that conversation unfortunately. Still a valuable player though.

  59. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy,

    Thanks for the matchups.

    Some surprises there, I wouldn’t have thought of Nashville in that light had you not mentioned it.

    Nice work.

  60. RexLibris says:

    Bag of Pucks: If this org does anything other than cut bait with Schultz this offseason, I’m not convinced mgmt is learning.

    Two years in as a pro and Jultz finally realizes he needs to hit the weight room and win more board battles? Kind of reinforces the fact that he does nothing in a hurry.

    Lousy slapper. Poor puck sense. Overrated passer. Consistent lack of compete. Zero aggression. Cup winners don’t keep passengers like this on the roster. The time to trade him is yesterday.

    Justin is as big a disappointment as Yak. The difference is how hard Yak is working to get better.

    Would a best-case scenario be Schultz filing for arbitration?

    Likely gets less than he thinks he’s worth in that case and the Oilers typically don’t take well to players who pursue this course of action so it could help to sour the milk a little earlier.

  61. justDOit says:

    RexLibris:
    Woodguy,

    Thanks for the matchups.

    Some surprises there, I wouldn’t have thought of Nashville in that light had you not mentioned it.

    Nice work.

    I meant to throw some love his way too, but I got distracted looking for my mortgage papers.

  62. SkatinginSand says:

    season not played:
    Sometimes it really seems like you are baiting me, I swear….

    Care to elaborate on what qualifies Eberle as a winner exactly?

    Is it his last two years of junior when he was the ring leader of a talented Regina team that couldn’t qualify for the playoffs or is it his last five years at the bottom of the league with Edmonton?

    And this not taking days off business. Does that include the games when he doesn’t back check or even attempt to engage physically?

    He is a decent scorer and that is the toughest thing to do, but I would argue that there are certain issues with his game that inhibit winning. It’s like Willis pointed out the other day, I believe after they were bombarded by San Jose. He played like a junior player trying to pad his stats, among other guys doing the same thing. Unfortunately that isn’t an isolated case in the career of Jordan Eberle to date.

    Don’t know much about his Jr. career other than his unreal heroics at the W.J. He was drafted 22nd because of concerns about his desire and work ethic.
    I would have to agree with you and disagree with L.T. about his game to game consistency. He is one of the first to mail it in when the game is not going their way.

  63. Dashingsilverfox says:

    nhlnumbers.com has a very nifty feature called “Spending Efficiency” which is simply PTS/million.

    Here’s a look at some of the top RW in the league.

    Stone (RFA) 73.28

    Kucherov (ELC) 71.96

    Nyquist (RFA) 56.84

    Tarasenko (RFA) 41.71

    Voracek 19.05

    Oshie 13.07

    Vrbata 12.6

    Hossa 11,65

    Iginla 11.06

    Wheeler 10.89

    EBERLE 10.5

    Kane 10.15

    Callahan 9.3

    Kessel 7.62 (was 14.81 last season)

    Perry 6.37

    While, obviously, that is a pretty simple way of looking at things because some players bring more to their teams than just points, I don’t think you can argue Eberle is a bargain at his cap hit.

    The interesting thing to watch on the list is the top 4 since they are in line for new contracts.

    I wonder how many of them will get $6M contracts?

  64. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Woodguy:
    *WARNING SPAM*

    New post at BecauseOilers *faints in surprise*

    I examine the 1st round match ups using FancyStats, goaltending and injuries.

    I also dole out iffy betting advice.

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2015/04/fancy-stats-and-2015-stanley-cup.html

    Any and all RT of my original tweet are appreciated.

    *END SPAM*

    The bookies have spoken…from Bovada:

    Odds to win the 2015 Stanley Cup

    New York Rangers 11/2
    Chicago Blackhawks 8/1
    St. Louis Blues 8/1
    Anaheim Ducks 9/1
    Minnesota Wild 9/1
    Montreal Canadiens 9/1
    Tampa Bay Lightning 10/1
    Nashville Predators 12/1
    Pittsburgh Penguins 16/1
    Vancouver Canucks 16/1
    Detroit Red Wings 18/1
    New York Islanders 18/1
    Ottawa Senators 18/1
    Washington Capitals 18/1
    Calgary Flames 20/1
    Winnipeg Jets 25/1

  65. Bag of Pucks says:

    RexLibris: Would a best-case scenario be Schultz filing for arbitration?

    Likely gets less than he thinks he’s worth in that case and the Oilers typically don’t take well to players who pursue this course of action so it could help to sour the milk a little earlier.

    The problem with that scenario is he already carries some baggage from his machinations to escape the Ducks. Bundle that with the potential perception of being seen as greedy in contract negotiations and that could really impact his marketability making him difficult to deal.

    Best case scenario for me is they bundle Jultz with that Pitt pick for an actual TOP 3 vet D or to move up in the draft and follow a Hanifan pick with a blue chip F prospect.

  66. DBO says:

    this is interesting.

    Adam Proteau ‏@Proteautype 3m3 minutes ago
    Spoke to NHL agent who wonders if this could happen: Leafs & Oilers swap No. 3 & 4 picks, Phaneuf goes to Edmonton, Leafs eat some money.

  67. justDOit says:

    Anyone want to lay odds on MacT mentioning Marincin in this presser? 100/1? 1000/1?

  68. frjohnk says:

    justDOit:
    Anyone want to lay odds on MacT mentioning Marincin in this presser? 100/1? 1000/1?

    Who?

  69. wheatnoil says:

    Top 5 D GVT: Carlson, Josi, Subban, Giordano, Letang. WAR: Karlsson, Spurgeon, Stralman, Vatanen, Muzzin (1/2)— Rob Vollman (@robvollmanNHL) April 13, 2015

    Top 5 D dCorsi: Ekman-Larsson, Demers, Hamilton, Giordano, Leddy Point Shares: Subban, Karlsson, Josi, Markov, Letang (2/2)— Rob Vollman (@robvollmanNHL) April 13, 2015

    That look at 4 different catch-all statistics have 15 different D-men in the top 5, with only 5 appearing twice, and no one thrice.— Rob Vollman (@robvollmanNHL) April 13, 2015

    Interesting series of tweets (twits? tweeti?). D-men aren’t easy to pin down. That said, I’d be interested to see if the discrepancy extends to the top 10 or 30 as well.

  70. thejonrmcleod says:

    DBO:
    this is interesting.

    Adam Proteau ‏@Proteautype3m3 minutes ago
    Spoke to NHL agent who wonders if this could happen: Leafs & Oilers swap No. 3 & 4 picks, Phaneuf goes to Edmonton, Leafs eat some money.

    So the Oilers give up nothing but the 3rd overall? How could the Oilers say no, especially if the Leafs are eating some money?

  71. Marc says:

    Dashingsilverfox:
    nhlnumbers.com has a very nifty feature called “Spending Efficiency” which is simply PTS/million.

    Here’s a look at some of the top RW in the league.

    Stone (RFA) 73.28

    Kucherov (ELC) 71.96

    Nyquist (RFA) 56.84

    Tarasenko (RFA) 41.71

    Voracek19.05

    Oshie 13.07

    Vrbata 12.6

    Hossa11,65

    Iginla 11.06

    Wheeler 10.89

    EBERLE 10.5

    Kane 10.15

    Callahan 9.3

    Kessel 7.62 (was 14.81 last season)

    Perry 6.37

    While, obviously, that is a pretty simple way of looking at things because some players bring more to their teams than just points, I don’t think you can argue Eberle is a bargain at his cap hit.

    The interesting thing to watch on the list is the top 4 since they are in line for new contracts.

    I wonder how many of them will get $6M contracts?

    Only DSF could take a stat that shows Eberle to be about as productive as Hossa and Kane, and more productive than Kessel or Perry, and make it out to be a bad thing.

    Never change, man. Never change.

  72. justDOit says:

    frjohnk: Who?

    MACT! WILL HE MENTION NN – YOU KNOW – NO NAME!

  73. Rondo says:

    What can MacT really say, he will be selling hope and taking blame, which don’t add up to wins.

  74. Marc says:

    thejonrmcleod: So the Oilers give up nothing but the 3rd overall? How could the Oilers say no, especially if the Leafs are eating some money?

    I’d do that in a heartbeat. Phaneuf at $5M or $5.5M is a good value contract, and all we’d be giving up is the right to take Strome, who I’m positive is the guy the Leafs are after.

  75. Ducey says:

    DBO:
    this is interesting.

    Adam Proteau ‏@Proteautype3m3 minutes ago
    Spoke to NHL agent who wonders if this could happen: Leafs & Oilers swap No. 3 & 4 picks, Phaneuf goes to Edmonton, Leafs eat some money.

    You would think an agent would take into account the No Trade Clause and the fact Dion doesn’t want to play in EDM.

  76. G Money says:

    DBO:
    this is interesting.

    Adam Proteau ‏@Proteautype3m3 minutes ago
    Spoke to NHL agent who wonders if this could happen: Leafs & Oilers swap No. 3 & 4 picks, Phaneuf goes to Edmonton, Leafs eat some money.

    Get Phaneuf (who, for all his critics, is a legit physical, mean top 4 D, which the Oilers are desperately short of) at say $5M to $6M ish, PLUS the choice from two of whoever is left of Hanifin, Marner, Strome?

    If that’s the deal, it’s a no-brainer.

  77. Woodguy says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    I have the lines in my piece.

  78. rickithebear says:

    DSF:
    In 2009 i pointed that Horcoff was 14.2 points /Million.
    And
    Crosby was 11.8 points/million.

    We are In a cap world.
    We want players with lots of points/milion and a low GA.
    The morons @ HF Boards instantly thought it was about better player.
    How can you say horcoff is better than crosby.
    When it is realy about situaation production per dollar. Not about better player
    The are still forest gumps out there who bring that up!
    Cause they are to stupid to get it.
    Jes…. it is grade 3 math!
    the more efficient /M the better chance to win.

    HF board Vitrol removed!

  79. Woodguy says:

    Ducey: Not looking at it that way.
    1) If you can get a 21 yr old to get the same production as the 30 yr old at 60% of the cost its good roster management.
    2) keeping Hemsky would have been a bad idea.Yak has replaced him and still has much upside. Purcell has replced Hemsky too. People say the Purcell deal is too expensive (he is, and so is Hemsky).But he is off the books in a yr.Hemsky has another 2.

    A constant flow of good, young, cheap talent is crucial in a cap world.

    Gotta have the vets on the team to let the develop in the easier minutes.

    Need balance.

    You’ll never value on a 30 year old contract like a RFA contract.

    Never.

  80. G Money says:

    I ran a full correlation of salary vs career ppg last season.

    The purpose of the correlation line is that it not only produces a conceptual ‘average’ that NHL GMs are working towards, but it also gives you a benchmark (“above the line” is a value deal, “below the line” is a non-value deal).

    The correlation was extremely high, BTW, (0.846) which indicates that there really is a “value line” that GMs had in mind in signing those deals, whether consciously or not. The data set consisted of forwards who had signed a contract that included all or partial UFA deals (full RFA and ELC deals were not included). I haven’t seen any salary value analysis as complete (if I do say so myself, ahem).

    By that measure, at that time, the Hall and Eberle deals were both average to good value.

    With the cap having gone up since then, the Eberle and Hall deals are currently good value (for their UFA years), but arguably still not such good value (for the RFA years).

    If the cap goes down, the only way the value gets better is if either of those guys moves up in career ppg (a process that happens slowly).

    These are not the deals that will hamstring this team, but as you’d expect, the InfiniRebuild ™ is grinding away the opportunity for value contracts for the youngsters.

    You can read the whole thing here: http://www.coppernblue.com/2014/5/26/5752148/whats-a-ufa-worth

  81. justDOit says:

    G Money: If that’s the deal, it’s a no-brainer.

    What if the Leaves want Hanifin?

  82. VanOil says:

    If MacT mentions ol’ what’s his name at the press conference we can assume he is trolling the Oilogoshpere and Dellow has his ear.

  83. Woodguy says:

    RexLibris:
    Woodguy,

    Thanks for the matchups.

    Some surprises there, I wouldn’t have thought of Nashville in that light had you not mentioned it.

    Nice work.

    Thanks Rex

  84. Woodguy says:

    justDOit: I meant to throw some love his way too, but I got distracted looking for my mortgage papers.

    Make sure you read the last paragraph in the post!!!

    Responsible gambling please.

    😀

  85. spoiler says:

    There is no way on this planet Phaneuf is going to Edmonton.

    He doesn’t want to be there, his socialite wife doesn’t want to be there, his Dad doesn’t want him there…

    He has an NTC. While it might be attractive to Dion to get out of the hellhole TO has become, he ain’t exchanging it for another hellhole.

    And that’s assuming our management would want that dickhead in the dressing room. Which ain’t a lock either.

    Not happening.

  86. G Money says:

    Woodguy,

    Nice work, WG. (And about damn time too)

    You and I might have to meet by the bike racks to settle the whole ‘special teams’ thing, though!

  87. G Money says:

    justDOit: What if the Leaves want Hanifin?

    Still just fine. Phaneuf + Stromarner is worth it.

  88. G Money says:

    spoiler,

    Maybe. Maybe not.

    Phagoof is older now. For a lot of folks, the value of being close to your hometown increases as you get older.

    It’s also closer to LA than TO is.

    And it’s closer to Cuthbert’s hometown (which may or may not matter to her).

  89. spoiler says:

    G Money:
    The correlation was extremely high, BTW, (0.846)

    That’s so freaky high I wonder if it is correct. Seriously.

    G Money: These are not the deals that will hamstring this team, but as you’d expect, the InfiniRebuild ™ is grinding away the opportunity for value contracts for the youngsters.

    Smart… Infinibuild™ was already taken.

  90. spoiler says:

    G Money: It’s also closer to LA than TO is.

    It’s closer in terms of geography; it’s farther in terms of everything else. I think Elisha would be more than happy to spend an extra hour in first class.

  91. G Money says:

    spoiler: That’s so freaky high I wonder if it is correct. Seriously.

    Smart… Infinibuild™ was already taken.

    Me too. I double checked the data when I saw it because I didn’t believe it, but couldn’t find an error (standarized tools, etc).

    But check out the beautifully symmetric cloud around the regression line. Whatever the correlation is (assuming the stated calculation is somehow in error), it’s still an excellent representation.

    We’re already rebuilding the Infinibuild ™, so InfiniRebuild ™ is the logical next step.

  92. G Money says:

    spoiler: It’s closer in terms of geography; it’s farther in terms of everything else. I think Elisha would be more than happy to spend an extra hour in first class.

    Maybe. I don’t know her, or Dion, well enough to say …

  93. justDOit says:

    G Money: Still just fine.

    If I could make the sound that Marge makes when she’s concerned about one of Homer’s plans, I’d be making it now. But maybe I’ve bought into Hanifin a little too much.

    You can’t argue with the catch phrase though: Just say Noah! (that’s even better than I Like Eich)

    And of course, there’s a 55% chance that those 3 – 4 picks slide one notch, changing this scenario slightly.

  94. spoiler says:

    Woodguy,

    If I could refute one premise in that article, it would be that whistles get put away. They do as the playoffs progress, but typically the first round is called far harder than the playoff races at the end of the season. People often forget this.

    Thus I think you need to factor in special teams in the first round.

  95. leadfarmer says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    The bookies must have not watched very much hockey in the last month. I wouldn’t bet on Pittsburghs 16/1 odds with someone else’s money. I think the Sens and Islanders have a better chance then the Pens. Hawks, Wild, Preds, and Blues are going to be soo beat up after playing each other the first two rounds that I don’t know if the winner of the central division is going to be able to keep going

  96. slopitch says:

    Man Yak is a beauty. Loving his interview.

  97. slopitch says:

    Also. Ive been tossing around the Oilers/Leafs swap for a while now. I suspect they want Strome and we are ok either way with Hanifan, Provorov or Marner. I dont love Phaneuf but he’s a quality top 4 dman. Oilers need those. Id dot that deal all day.

  98. wheatnoil says:

    Yakupov will head to Russia's camp now that he has a contract.— Ryan Rishaug (@TSNRyanRishaug) April 13, 2015

    Perhaps Yak and Slepy will play on a line at the Worlds?

  99. spoiler says:

    G Money: Me too. I double checked the data when I saw it because I didn’t believe it, but couldn’t find an error (standarized tools, etc).

    But check out the beautifully symmetric cloud around the regression line. Whatever the correlation is (assuming the stated calculation is somehow in error), it’s still an excellent representation.

    Good to know. Haven’t had a chance to click through yet… been busy learning how to wager my house and bet my firstborn in three easy steps.

  100. Adam Wu says:

    If Eberle played almost half this season with a significant injury affecting his output, and still managed to be “consistent” with previous years when he was mostly healthy, then does that not suggest the possibility that he has actually progressed significantly and we might expect or hope for more from him in the future if he stays healthy for the entire season?

    Or do we simply expect that all his seasons will have stretches where his output will be suppressed by nagging injuries, given the nature of play in the NHL?

    Regarding the Yak contract, considering it with the others done since the end of the season, pretty much ALL of them have been pleasant surprises. Good value, good term, etc. This is credit to MacT, and evidence of his skill in the GM position, which seems to be getting lost in the developing “MacT sucks” narrative.

    Remember, we have to consider all the evidence, good and bad.

    It still remains very possible that while MacT is surely not perfect, he does, in fact, know what he is doing, only that he decided early on that the team was in such a terrible state that it would be impossible, no matter what he did, to make the team competitive within 1-2 years, and thus his plan is longer term, but of course he cannot come out and SAY that. All of his various decisions and verbals, including the hiring of Eakins, the silence on Marincin, the patience with Shultz, the strange deployment of the defence, keeping Drai in the NHL until the trade to his current junior team could be orchestrated, and the criticism about making decisions not based on trying to win, make much more sense if one steps back from the view of trying to win right away and looking at things from a 3-5 year perspective.

    Scrivens and Fasth become reasonable bets that did not pan out. Nikitin a less reasonable bet that didn’t pan out, but one that was wisely time-limited with a short contract. The C depth problem compounded by Lander unexpectedly struggling out of TC (remember MacT signed him to a one-way last year, on the clear expectation that he would make the team as 4C/utility guy out of TC). Petry could be cutting losses on an irreversible mistake, but the origin of the mistake may have predated McT and it was simply something that was not in his power to fix.

    And so forth.

    The Ference signing and contract stands out as the only real, undeniable, mistake that cannot be explained as a reasonable bet that just happened to fail or part of a reasonable longterm plan for the future.

    See, if winning now is impossible, or so costly as to have a high likelihood of significantly impairing your ability to win in the future, then the proper and intelligent thing to do is NOT to try your utmost to win now and NOT to make decisions with winning now as the prime motivator.

  101. wheatnoil says:

    spoiler: Good to know.Haven’t had a chance to click through yet… been busy learning how to wager my house and bet my firstborn in three easy steps.

    This is the problem with gambling… people can’t set a limit and then find themselves in trouble. My advice, only go to bet with your second-born… leave your first at home where you can’t easily access him/her. Gamble responsibly.

  102. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Marc: Only DSF could take a stat that shows Eberle to be about as productive as Hossa and Kane, and more productive than Kessel or Perry, and make it out to be a bad thing.

    Never change, man.Never change.

    Hossa has significantly more value. (especially when you consider the other attributes he brings)

    Kane doesn’t and won’t because he’s about to become the highest paid player in the league at $13.8M. and cap hit of $10.5

    That why Chicago’s window will slam shut at the end of this season.

  103. G Money says:

    spoiler:
    Woodguy,

    If I could refute one premise in that article, it would be that whistles get put away.They do as the playoffs progress, but typically the first round is called far harder than the playoff races at the end of the season. People often forget this.

    Thus I think you need to factor in special teams in the first round.

    I hadn’t realized that. Data?

    If true, you’re right, it certainly changes the equation around the importance of special teams that round.

    Unfortunately, it doesn’t make the series weightings any more predictable. As I showed in gory detail yesterday, there is minimal correlation between the effectiveness of a team’s PK/PP in the regular season vs the playoffs. In fact, last year they were so uncorrelated (0.046 for PP, -0.024 for the PK) it’s almost bizarre.

  104. wheatnoil says:

    G Money:
    Unfortunately, it doesn’t make the series weightings any more predictable.As I showed in gory detail yesterday, there is minimal correlation between the effectiveness of a team’s PK/PP in the regular season vs the playoffs.In fact, last year they were so uncorrelated (0.046 for PP, -0.024 for the PK) it’s almost bizarre.

    Not so bizarre. I can think of two good reasons. One, PP and PK percentages fluctuate wildly at the best of times and the playoffs are a small sample size. Two, over a seven-game series, the opposing team has more time and spends far more energy coming up with strategies to counter-act the other team’s specific special teams systems. Playing seven games against seven different teams in the regular season is not the same as playing seven games against the same team in a row in the playoffs.

    Edit: That said, I missed your comment yesterday. I’ll go back and check it out.

  105. spoiler says:

    G Money: Me too.I double checked the data when I saw it because I didn’t believe it, but couldn’t find an error (standarized tools, etc).

    But check out the beautifully symmetric cloud around the regression line.Whatever the correlation is (assuming the stated calculation is somehow in error), it’s still an excellent representation.

    We’re already rebuilding the Infinibuild ™, so InfiniRebuild ™ is the logical next step.

    The graph looks just fine. I wonder if the correlation is so strong due to optics acting as a constraint on GMs. Because wouldn’t you think agents would have the opposite effect? Or would agents just be looking to shift the entire regression line to the right (in which case, correlation holds)? But of course a hard ceiling places limits on their ability to do that, and also constrains GMs.

    Okay, I think I have myself talked into that unbelievably strong correlation.
    😉

  106. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Did we ever come to a consensus as to why Draisaitl wasn’t sent to the World Jrs for a deep German team? Would it not have been better for his development to have to lead a team against the world’s best players his age rather than get limited ice time in a sheltered role for a few more games in the NHL? Everyone here seems to agree going to Kelowna was a good choice but why wasn’t it also a good choice to send him to the World Jrs?

  107. stush18 says:

    Adam Wu:
    If Eberle played almost half this season with a significant injury affecting his output, and still managed to be “consistent” with previous years when he was mostly healthy, then does that not suggest the possibility that he has actually progressed significantly and we might expect or hope for more from him in the future if he stays healthy for the entire season?

    Or do we simply expect that all his seasons will have stretches where his output will be suppressed by nagging injuries, given the nature of play in the NHL?

    Regarding the Yak contract, considering it with the others done since the end of the season, pretty much ALL of them have been pleasant surprises. Good value, good term, etc. This is credit to MacT, and evidence of his skill in the GM position, which seems to be getting lost in the developing “MacT sucks” narrative.

    Remember, we have to consider all the evidence, good and bad.

    It still remains very possible that while MacT is surely not perfect, he does, in fact, know what he is doing, only that he decided early on that the team was in such a terrible state that it would be impossible, no matter what he did, to make the team competitive within 1-2 years, and thus his plan is longer term, but of course he cannot come out and SAY that. All of his various decisions and verbals, including the hiring of Eakins, the silence on Marincin, the patience with Shultz, the strange deployment of the defence, keeping Drai in the NHL until the trade to his current junior team could be orchestrated, and the criticism about making decisions not based on trying to win, make much more sense if one steps back from the view of trying to win right away and looking at things from a 3-5 year perspective.

    Scrivens and Fasth become reasonable bets that did not pan out. Nikitin a less reasonable bet that didn’t pan out, but one that was wisely time-limited with a short contract. The C depth problem compounded by Lander unexpectedly struggling out of TC (remember MacT signed him to a one-way last year, on the clear expectation that he would make the team as 4C/utility guy out of TC). Petry could be cutting losses on an irreversible mistake, but the origin of the mistake may have predated McT and it was simply something that was not in his power to fix.

    And so forth.

    The Ference signing and contract stands out as the only real, undeniable, mistake that cannot be explained as a reasonable bet that just happened to fail or part of a reasonable longterm plan for the future.

    See, if winning now is impossible, or so costly as to have a high likelihood of significantly impairing your ability to win in the future, then the proper and intelligent thing to do is NOT to try your utmost to win now and NOT to make decisions with winning now as the prime motivator.

    I think the only mistake with ference was the length. That prolly wasnt becessaey, And if it was, then the nmc clause definetly wasnt.

    I can see ference coming home but with a nmc clause so he wouldnt get moved away again before he retired. Then mact fucked up and gave him four years.

    I dont think any predicted his regression to be so sharp and sudden. Playing above his head since he got here hasnt helped either. Plus a pectoral tear and hes lost his ability to do what he was good ar, battling.

    I get frustrated because theyve set a timeline and are following it, and making decisions based on the future.

  108. Evilas says:

    Seeing as I am still unemployed with no prospects yet (but with a couple of dollars in the bank) I am thinking about spending a few days in OKC to watch some playoff hockey, does anyone have any recommendations regarding accomodations/restaurants/entertainment, etc?

    Thank you in advance!

  109. Numenius says:

    Adam Wu,

    Great post.

  110. spoiler says:

    G Money: Unfortunately, it doesn’t make the series weightings any more predictable. As I showed in gory detail yesterday, there is minimal correlation between the effectiveness of a team’s PK/PP in the regular season vs the playoffs. In fact, last year they were so uncorrelated (0.046 for PP, -0.024 for the PK) it’s almost bizarre.

    Would the correlation be stronger if you did it by match-up? Was last year just an anomaly? PP and PK weird me out too because it seems like most teams go on hot and cold runs all season long and you never know when those runs are going to be.

    What I do think should be looked at though, are the PP and PK rates. We maybe can’t trust effectiveness, but if we’re betting, wouldn’t you give the edge to a team if you are expecting them to be on the PP a lot more than the PK?

    Sorry, I pretty much completely missed yesterday here.

  111. Chunklets says:

    Anton Slepyshev is reported to have signed a 2-year contract extension in Ufa with Salavat Yulaev. No mention of whether that includes an out clause. Link to google-translated article.

  112. Woodguy says:

    G Money:
    Woodguy,

    Nice work, WG.(And about damn time too)

    You and I might have to meet by the bike racks to settle the whole ‘special teams’ thing, though!

    Thanks!

    I’ll fight ya!

  113. Woodguy says:

    spoiler:
    Woodguy,

    If I could refute one premise in that article, it would be that whistles get put away.They do as the playoffs progress, but typically the first round is called far harder than the playoff races at the end of the season. People often forget this.

    Thus I think you need to factor in special teams in the first round.

    Noted.

    I’ll look into it.

  114. frjohnk says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Hossa has significantly more value. (especially when you consider the other attributes he brings)

    Now we know you have gone over the deep end.

    Is Hossa a better player than Eberle right now? offensively, no, overall yes, but Hossa is also at the age when players careers are coming to a end

    Hossa is 36 right now, when his 5.25M per year contract runs out in 2021, he will be 42.

    Eberle is 25 right now, when is 6M per year contract runs out in 2019, he will be 29.

    In a salary cap world, which GM in his right mind would think that “Hossa has significantly more value”?

  115. justDOit says:

    That’s some wisdom that we can all put to use: Support the core!

  116. fifthcartel says:

    Developmental year next year?

    *sigh*

  117. Younger Oil says:

    This press conference is going well so far. Wish the reporters would ask him some harder questions. Still waiting on a mention of Marincin though!

    Found it kind of funny that he basically said that he wants Drai to knock Chase and potentially Betker out of the WHL playoffs though.

    “We need a much better goalie”. True, but that’s a swift kick in the boys for Scrivens.

  118. Bag of Pucks says:

    MacT’s verbal is interesting as always in this presser.

    At times confident and composed. At times, strident and defensive.

    One message loud and clear is a conservative approach to the ‘core.’ Quite far removed from the bold moves mantra. Sounding eerily more Tambellini-esque now.

    At some point this team is going to have to emulate the Jets and make their Kane for Myers blockbuster deal. Just too many holes to address otherwise unless you’ve already decided that competing for the Cup with Hall and Eberle still in the fold is not the priority.

    This core has not moved the needle AT ALL, but the plan continues to be ‘stay the course?’

    ‘Craig’s on it!’ lol

  119. Younger Oil says:

    THREE OFFENSIVE LINES!!!!!!!!!!

  120. justDOit says:

    OILER DOMINATION TO FOLLOW!!!

    note: ball-gag not included

  121. wheatnoil says:

    Bohologo: Confirmed from KHL website:
    http://www.khl.ru/news/2015/04/13/234061.html

    What’s interesting is that this press release characterizes Slepyshev’s deal as a “two-way contract” (“двусторонние контракты”). I don’t know if that means major/minors two-way, or KHL-NHL two way. Given the birth years provided for other contract signers, I think it’s the former.

    It will also be interesting to learn if there is an out-clause. Mr. Slepyshev just became a father, so maybe he’s got good reasons to stay close to home before he feels he is relatively assured of a viable chance at an NHL roster spot.

    This may be okay for his development if he gets the ice time next year. He didn’t seem to get it at the start of the year, but appeared to turn a corner part-way through. If the team plays him in a top 6 role next year, playing in the KHL is not at all a bad thing for another year.

    I believe the Oilers retain his rights for two more years.

  122. spoiler says:

    Bohologo: Confirmed from KHL website:
    http://www.khl.ru/news/2015/04/13/234061.html

    What’s interesting is that this press release characterizes Slepyshev’s deal as a “two-way contract” (“двусторонние контракты”). I don’t know if that means major/minors two-way, or KHL-NHL two way. Given the birth years provided for other contract signers, I think it’s the former.

    It will also be interesting to learn if there is an out-clause. Mr. Slepyshev just became a father, so maybe he’s got good reasons to stay close to home before he feels he is relatively assured of a viable chance at an NHL roster spot.

    Boho, isn’t it the case that KHL has rules on contracts for young players (kind of like our ELCs), and they’re always two way, till the player is 22?

  123. justDOit says:

    “There’s no greater springboard to development, than failure.”

    That’s a pretty good one, as long as we’re not talking about packing a parachute.

  124. Klima's_Bucket says:

    You can kiss the Pittsburgh pick goodbye.
    The amount of times MacT mentioned moving that pick for a goalie was telling.

  125. frjohnk says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    You can kiss the Pittsburgh pick goodbye.
    The amount of times MacT mentioned moving that pick for a goalie was telling.

    Bernier?

  126. wheatnoil says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    You can kiss the Pittsburgh pick goodbye.
    The amount of times MacT mentioned moving that pick for a goalie was telling.

    Damn it MacT. That’s too high a price to pay for voodoo!

    He better get a good one for that cost.

    Edit: For what it’s worth, he did also mention free agency.

  127. spoiler says:

    frjohnk: Bernier?

    Howard, Crawford, or Quick.

  128. Chunklets says:

    Bohologo,

    I think the two-way contract may mean KHL-MHL. I think the MHL’s upper age limit is higher than in North American junior leagues, and Slepyshev may still be eligible to play there. In answer to Spoiler’s question, I believe it is the case that young-player contracts are two-way automatically.

    I did wonder, when I saw the news about Sleps’ new baby, how that was going to affect his plans re: coming overseas.

  129. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    In baseball other than being an Expos fan, I’m a Seattle Mariners fan. Do you know what this Eberle discussion reminds me of? The debate around Ichiro. Ichiro, in part due to his defense and arm and prowess on the base paths was for the first 6 or 7 years of his career, the second most valuable player in baseball behind Barry Bonds in terms of WAR.

    BUT The Mariners sucked from 2003 onwards and the fans turned on their star. He doesn’t hit the long ball. He bunts too much. He doesn’t dive head first for fly balls (never mind that he was good enough to position himself never to dive and jeopardize injury. How many outfielders dive because they are incorrectly positioned or take bad routes to balls). He collects hits for selfish reasons. They blamed a great player for incompetent management and a terrible team when clearly on a great team like 2001 he was the engine.

    Heaven forbid Eberle try to put up points! It’s all selfish Stat padding. Never mind that a point is a point is a point.

    Some of you, and I’m not going to name names, don’t deserve this team and perhaps you’d be better off cheering for the team down the QE2. Don’t let the door hit you on the way out.

    The problems aren’t with Nuge Hall and Eberle. The problems are many and they are with nearly everything else surrounding them. At least MacT recognizes this.

    Rant over.

  130. slopitch says:

    fifthcartel:
    Developmental year next year?

    *sigh*

    Developmental year and lottery year can mean different things. I dont see the Oilers as a playoff team next year myself.

    Overall I thought he was quite fair. And reasonable.

    The goalie comment is interesting. The kind of calibre it would take to move the pick for me is pretty high. Valivesky or Gibson type prospect. Even then you gotta be careful. I dont see any Schneider types around.

  131. Pouzar says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”:
    In baseball other than being an Expos fan, I’m a Seattle Mariners fan. Do you know what this Eberle discussion reminds me of? The debate around Ichiro. Ichiro, in part due to his defense and arm and prowess on the base paths was for the first 6 or 7 years of his career, the second most valuable player in baseball behind Barry Bonds in terms of WAR.

    BUT The Mariners sucked from 2003 onwards and the fans turned on their star. He doesn’t hit the long ball. He bunts too much. He doesn’t dive head first for fly balls (never mind that he was good enough to position himself never to dive and jeopardize injury. How many outfielders dive because they are incorrectly positioned or take bad routes to balls). He collects hits for selfish reasons. They blamed a great player for incompetent management and a terrible team when clearly on a great team like 2001 he was the engine.

    Heaven forbid Eberle try to put up points! It’s all selfish Stat padding. Never mind that a point is a point is a point.

    Some of you, and I’m not going to name names, don’t deserve this team and perhaps you’d be better off cheering for the team down the QE2. Don’t let the door hit you on the way out.

    The problems aren’t with Nuge Hall and Eberle. The problems are many and they are with nearly everything else surrounding them. At least MacT recognizes this.

    Rant over.

    I missed you NYC.

  132. slopitch says:

    Also LT would it be possible to add a link to lowetide.ca/latest so we can bookmark and always go to the latest post? Understood if you want the ad revenue. I just hate it when I comment and realize everyone else is talking in another room.

  133. Bling says:

    This press conference is embarrassing.

    MacT et al need to resign.

    The game has passed them by, and they have no clue at all.

  134. su_dhillon says:

    Hands up if you feel better about this team after hearing MacT? No? that’s what I thought.
    Outside of just pure dumb luck and a crazy PDO year the only chance Taylor Hall sees the playoffs here on a regular basis is a complete house cleaning and that doesn’t appear to be on Rexall’s radar.

  135. Bag of Pucks says:

    One thing I found disingenuous about MacT’s presser is he now positions trading a member of the core as unwise because the only potential return is a declining asset ( e.g. Phaneuf).

    As the Jets / Sabres trade demonstrates, you can trade prospects for prospects.

    For example, you could potentially trade Hall for Seth Jones and then draft Strome.

    Or trade Eberle for Klingberg and draft Marner.

    Or trade Jultz for Malcom Subban and draft Hanifan.

    This team continually underperforms, but the core remains untouchable and MacT sits on his hands.

    Buying high & selling low due to indecision/dithering. It’s the hallmark of this org.

  136. frjohnk says:

    spoiler: Howard, Crawford, or Quick.

    I sure hope its not Quick. Yuck

    He plays for one of the best team defences in the league and posted just above average save %.

    Below average high danger save %. ( this is one of the big factors for me when looking at goalies)

    His contract is until 2022.

    He might have the least value all of goaltenders in the league when factoring in ability, salary and age, so it would be fitting Oilers would get him

  137. justDOit says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”: better off cheering for the team down the QE2

    DISCLAIMER

    I’m only cheering for them against the Nucks, and because I have a 4k GoPro ready for the Red Mile if things progress further than that. You might say, my playoff support for them is ‘Bubbling under’.

    Also, I love The Core.

  138. Klima's_Bucket says:

    frjohnk: Bernier?

    MacT did say there were options in free agency but then MacT said the Pens pick in the 25th range would get him a good goalie then he said with the “found money” of the pick being in the teens he could acquire a “better goalie.”

  139. Gerta Rauss says:

    http://oilers.nhl.com/club/blogpost.htm?id=38853&navid=DL|EDM|home

    3 D assigned to the A

    Davidson, Musil, and I can’t remember the other guys name

  140. Gerta Rauss says:

    That’s a little disappointing to read about Slepshev…I mean, good for him and his family, but I selfishly wanted him to enter the system next year

  141. Dashingsilverfox says:

    I think we found the Iraqi Information Minister!

    Derek Van Diest ‏@SUNdvandiest 53s54 seconds ago

    .@tsimpson76 PR guys was in control of the press conference, wouldn’t let me ask a question, yet allowed his propaganda minster to. #Oilers

  142. Eberle, RNH and “Star” Status | The SuperFan says:

    […] RE 14-15 Jordan Eberle: Blue Sky – Lowetide […]

  143. justDOit says:

    Gerta Rauss: and I can’t remember the other guys name

    Lowe?

  144. Bling says:

    I hope that Bob Nicholson was watching that mess of a press conference.

  145. Marc says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Hossa has significantly more value. (especially when you consider the other attributes he brings)

    Hossa has more value, eh?

    So would you wager a bottle of Talisker that Hossa will get more points than Eberle over the next four years?

    I’ll happily wager on Eberle and let you take the higher value player.

  146. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Marc: Hossa has more value, eh?

    So would you wager a bottle of Talisker that Hossa will get more points than Eberle over the next four years?

    I’ll happily wager on Eberle and let you take the higher value player.

    No.

    Hossa has more value right now but he’s 35.

    If we’re talking value in 3-4 years, no question Eberle is the choice especially since the Blackhawks are going to have to dismantle their team again.

  147. Evilas says:

    Bling:
    This press conference is embarrassing.

    MacT et al need to resign.

    The game has passed them by, and they have no clue at all.

    Bling,

    WTF did you expect?

    I am as passionate about this team as anyone, I have been a fan since 79-80 and I want so badly to see the post season again, but words are just words. I think he is smart enough and knowledgeable enough to steer this ship. It appears that he isn’t going anywhere, so he has my support.

    This time around he was better than last time, no big promises, no throwing players under the bus. He is learning….Actions speak louder than words, lets see how the draft and the summer play out, this is how he should be judged, not by his words at a meaningless press conference.

  148. su_dhillon says:

    Bling:
    I hope that Bob Nicholson was watching that mess of a press conference.

    I think it might be time to admit that the idea Bob Nicholson was brought in to be the outsider who had full authority to make changes was a smokescreen. There is no way if that was the case that the only changes would be to promote Bob Green and give Howson more power at draft.

    I mean do we really think the result of the audit was ” we have all the right people here but they are just doing the wrong jobs”?

  149. Ducey says:

    su_dhillon: I think it might be time to admit that the idea Bob Nicholson was brought in to be the outsider who had full authority to make changes was a smokescreen. There is no way if that was the case thatthe only changes would be to promote Bob Green and give Howson more power at draft.

    I mean do we really think the result of the audit was ” we have all the right people here but they are just doing the wrong jobs”?

    MacT said he didn’t know what the result of the audit was. It could have been pretty critical, but the issue might be that Katz doesn’t want to follow it. Of course, we might want to give it a little time. It has been 1 day since the season ended.

    It does sound like it was critical of the drafting.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if Lowe was further marginalized over the course of the summer.

  150. Ducey says:

    And, honestly, I know all the cool kids think ripping on management is the thing to do, but I am happy to hear that they will continue to draft and develop. The worst thing they could do is trade young players for a bunch of quick fixes.

    If next year is “developmental” then it means its more likely that Leon, Nurse and the top pick spend some time elsewhere developing.

  151. justDOit says:

    Ducey: MacT said he didn’t know what the result of the audit was.

    Hopefully this ‘audit’ doesn’t take as long to produce as the Warren commission report.

  152. speeds says:

    Ducey:
    And, honestly, I know all the cool kids think ripping on management is the thing to do, but I am happy to hear that they will continue to draft and develop.The worst thing they could do is trade young players for a bunch of quick fixes.

    If next year is “developmental” then it means its more likely that Leon, Nurse and the top pick spend some time elsewhere developing.

    At the same time, sounds like (I missed this part of the PC) MacT may be open to moving the PIT 1st for a goalie. Depends on the deal, but I think I’d rather draft with that pick than trade for a G.

  153. Adam Wu says:

    Dashingsilverfox: No.

    Hossa has more value right now but he’s 35.

    If we’re talking value in 3-4 years, no question Eberle is the choice especially since the Blackhawks are going to have to dismantle their team again.

    RIGHT NOW, Hossa’s value to the Oilers is zero. Because they ain’t playing hockey right now and can’t use any of his services even if they had him.

  154. GCW_69 says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    I wonder how the contract is structured.If Yakupov gets 1 million in year one and 4 million in year two that will make his qualifying offer interesting down the road…

    That was my question. Did MacT create another Schultz situation?

  155. Bag of Pucks says:

    Ducey:
    And, honestly, I know all the cool kids think ripping on management is the thing to do, but I am happy to hear that they will continue to draft and develop.

    It is possible to replace/improve the mgmt. of this org AND stay committed to a draft and development philosophy.

  156. Adam Wu says:

    justDOit:
    “There’s no greater springboard to development, than failure.”

    That’s a pretty good one, as long as we’re not talking about packing a parachute.

    That which doesn’t kill you only makes you stronger.*

    Unless, of course, it does kill you first!

    *(Not actually true all the time….)

  157. GCW_69 says:

    Ducey:
    And, honestly, I know all the cool kids think ripping on management is the thing to do, but I am happy to hear that they will continue to draft and develop.The worst thing they could do is trade young players for a bunch of quick fixes.

    If next year is “developmental” then it means its more likely that Leon, Nurse and the top pick spend some time elsewhere developing.

    I think you missed these juicy quotes:

    “He’s [Klefbom] grown a lot in the last 25 games. I think he will be a star. No challenge will hurt his development. We could use a couple more like him. We think we have one in the system already ”

    ” No greater springboard to development than failure. ”

    Draft and develop in Oiler lingo means drop em in the deep end and see what happens.

  158. wheatnoil says:

    speeds: At the same time, sounds like (I missed this part of the PC) MacT may be open to moving the PIT 1st for a goalie.Depends on the deal, but I think I’d rather draft with that pick than trade for a G.

    For me I think it goes something like this…

    Trade 1st for a top 4 D at the right age > Package 1st with the 2nd and trade up to grab Kylington / Werenski if dropping > Stand and pick the best available prospect with the 1st > Trade 1st for a goalie.

    That said, there’s another part of my brain that says that if the Oilers could get a goalie that could provide them with slightly above or even at league average save percentage for the next couple years, that might be the most valuable addition this team could make. That would actually be worth Pitts’ 1st.

    I still prefer trying to sign Neuvirth.

  159. GCW_69 says:

    Evilas: It appears that he isn’t going anywhere, so he has my support.

    People have said the same about dictators throughout history. That doesn’t make it right.

  160. thejonrmcleod says:

    I think MacTavish is in a no-win situation in this type of press conference. Be positive and the fans get angry. Be negative and make the case for why your boss should fire you.

  161. frjohnk says:

    thejonrmcleod:
    I think MacTavish is in a no-win situation in this type of press conference. Be positive and the fans get angry. Be negative and make the case for why your boss should fire you.

    Yeah, that is probably about right.

  162. JimRoepcke says:

    Eberle doesn’t take a day off? I appreciate your love for the kid but wow, the whole team took weeks off at a time more than once this year.

  163. Woodguy says:

    Adam Wu:
    If Eberle played almost half this season with a significant injury affecting his output, and still managed to be “consistent” with previous years when he was mostly healthy, then does that not suggest the possibility that he has actually progressed significantly and we might expect or hope for more from him in the future if he stays healthy for the entire season?

    Or do we simply expect that all his seasons will have stretches where his output will be suppressed by nagging injuries, given the nature of play in the NHL?

    Regarding the Yak contract, considering it with the others done since the end of the season, pretty much ALL of them have been pleasant surprises. Good value, good term, etc. This is credit to MacT, and evidence of his skill in the GM position, which seems to be getting lost in the developing “MacT sucks” narrative.

    Remember, we have to consider all the evidence, good and bad.

    It still remains very possible that while MacT is surely not perfect, he does, in fact, know what he is doing, only that he decided early on that the team was in such a terrible state that it would be impossible, no matter what he did, to make the team competitive within 1-2 years, and thus his plan is longer term, but of course he cannot come out and SAY that. All of his various decisions and verbals, including the hiring of Eakins, the silence on Marincin, the patience with Shultz, the strange deployment of the defence, keeping Drai in the NHL until the trade to his current junior team could be orchestrated, and the criticism about making decisions not based on trying to win, make much more sense if one steps back from the view of trying to win right away and looking at things from a 3-5 year perspective.

    Scrivens and Fasth become reasonable bets that did not pan out. Nikitin a less reasonable bet that didn’t pan out, but one that was wisely time-limited with a short contract. The C depth problem compounded by Lander unexpectedly struggling out of TC (remember MacT signed him to a one-way last year, on the clear expectation that he would make the team as 4C/utility guy out of TC). Petry could be cutting losses on an irreversible mistake, but the origin of the mistake may have predated McT and it was simply something that was not in his power to fix.

    And so forth.

    The Ference signing and contract stands out as the only real, undeniable, mistake that cannot be explained as a reasonable bet that just happened to fail or part of a reasonable longterm plan for the future.

    See, if winning now is impossible, or so costly as to have a high likelihood of significantly impairing your ability to win in the future, then the proper and intelligent thing to do is NOT to try your utmost to win now and NOT to make decisions with winning now as the prime motivator.

    Nice post AW.

    AW…….your nickname should be Teen Burger.

  164. Woodguy says:

    su_dhillon: I think it might be time to admit that the idea Bob Nicholson was brought in to be the outsider who had full authority to make changes was a smokescreen. There is no way if that was the case thatthe only changes would be to promote Bob Green and give Howson more power at draft.

    I mean do we really think the result of the audit was ” we have all the right people here but they are just doing the wrong jobs”?

    Nicholson was brought in for non-hockey ops reasons.

    Grow Rexall Sports and partner with the right people in multiple markets.

    I think he opened his mouth a bit when talking to Bob McCown and then the whole “forensic audit” took on a public life way larger than its actual size.

  165. Woodguy says:

    Ducey:
    And, honestly, I know all the cool kids think ripping on management is the thing to do, but I am happy to hear that they will continue to draft and develop.The worst thing they could do is trade young players for a bunch of quick fixes.

    If next year is “developmental” then it means its more likely that Leon, Nurse and the top pick spend some time elsewhere developing.

    Agreed.

    Now is the time to trade picks and future picks, not young players.

  166. speeds says:

    Woodguy: Agreed.

    Now is the time to trade picks and future picks, not young players.

    As always, depends on the deal, but in general, I kind of disagree with that. I’d have no problem, philosophically, with them drafting with all of their picks in the top 100.

  167. commonfan14 says:

    Adam Wu: Petry could be cutting losses on an irreversible mistake, but the origin of the mistake may have predated McT and it was simply something that was not in his power to fix.

    That’s letting him off far too easy. If Petry was a goner, then MacT should have traded him in the summer when his value was higher.

    He botched the whole thing terribly.

  168. TheOtherJohn says:

    Woodguy: Nicholson was brought in for non-hockey ops reasons.

    Grow Rexall Sports and partner with the right people in multiple markets.

    I think he opened his mouth a bit when talking to Bob McCown and then the whole “forensic audit” took on a public life way larger than its actual size.

    This, all day

    Do not believe there ever was a forensic audit

  169. Bag of Pucks says:

    Morey Gare and Dave Semenko comprise 50% of the pro scouting staff of this org and Craig MacTavish is ok with that.

    Keeping the boy’s club stocked with cold beer and the latest movies?

    Craig’s on it.

  170. Adam Wu says:

    commonfan14: That’s letting him off far too easy.If Petry was a goner, then MacT should have traded him in the summer when his value was higher.

    He botched the whole thing terribly.

    And how do you know his value was higher in the summer?

  171. hunter1909 says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Morey Gare and Dave Semenko comprise 50% of the pro scouting staff of this org and Craig MacTavish is ok with that.

    Keeping the boy’s club stocked with cold beer and the latest movies?

    Craig’s on it.

    Which players have Morey Gare signed his name to as a scout? As in, how the fuck can anyone know how good these guys are without any proof outside of limpid play by play colour like Morey used to do ?

    Scouts need to be forced to do just that. Sign their names to their draft picks, for anyone to look at.

  172. justDOit says:

    Adam Wu: (Not actually true all the time….)

    Maybe most of the time. A stroke comes to mind (well, not literally), and my wonky shoulder says hello.

  173. hungoverman says:

    I hope that this is the last summer for Mr. Mactavish at the helm. I think if the Oilers are in the bottom 5 in standings at Christmas that will be that.

  174. GCW_69 says:

    MacT On next year:

    “Another developmental year with modest growth.”

    If this is him being an “impatient man”, I cannot possibly fathom what him taking it slow would look like.

  175. Ducey says:

    hunter1909:

    Scouts need to be forced to do just that. Sign their names to their draft picks, for anyone to look at.

    You mean like right on their foreheads or maybe a nice tattoo on their ass?

    You are being a little presumptuous on what your ticket price might get you. You get to watch the game, you don’t get to force document production and ask the GM questions under oath.

    And you understand scouts don’t make moves, they just file reports and make recommendations. MacT and Stu M “sign” off on the picks.

  176. GCW_69 says:

    thejonrmcleod:
    I think MacTavish is in a no-win situation in this type of press conference. Be positive and the fans get angry. Be negative and make the case for why your boss should fire you.

    Why does it have to be either? Why not own your mistakes and talk about what you are going to do differently.

  177. justDOit says:

    Ducey: You mean like right on their foreheads or maybe a nice tattoo on their ass?

    Or just a serial number on their forearm, with an IBM designed punch-card database.

  178. Ducey says:

    GCW_69:
    MacTOn next year:

    “Another developmental year with modest growth.”

    If this is him being an “impatient man”, I cannot possibly fathom what him taking it slow would look like.

    Remember when he first started we heard talk that he was always on the phones, at the draft he was all over place, he was trying really hard to make a deal in FA. But the deals just were not there.

    Guys would not waive NTC, or come here as a UFA and GM’s would not make him a good deal. Clarkson said no for less money. Roy and a host of other C’s said no thanks last summer.

    He has likely figured out that in this market, draft and develop is everything. You can supplement a little with some small trades and one or two UFA’s, but the core is coming from the draft.

  179. stush18 says:

    Mrazek has been names the starter for the red wings. I wanted him at the start of the year but im assuming they knew what they had.

    Jimmy howard for scrivens, pitts first?

  180. Yeti says:

    G Money: InfiniRebuild ™

    To InfiniRebuild™ and beyond?

  181. justDOit says:

    TheOtherJohn: Do not believe there ever was a forensic audit

    So, pretty much exactly like the Warren commission then.

  182. Bag of Pucks says:

    9 years out of the playoffs (current GM seemingly thinks it’s 7). Ference, Nikitin and Schultz set to return. Forensic audit is a smokescreen. GM calling next season a ‘development year.’ Owner set to jack ticket prices through the roof in a year’s time.

    And people on here are still making excuses for this old boy’s club and preaching patience.

    Because Oilers and….Because Oiler fans.

    Is it too late in their careers to trade Kevin Lowe for Brendan Shanahan?

    “What this team needs is an enema!”

  183. spoiler says:

    frjohnk: I sure hope its not Quick. Yuck

    He plays for one of the best team defences in the league and posted just above average save %.

    Below average high danger save %.( this is one of the big factors for me when looking at goalies)

    His contract is until 2022.

    He might have the least value all of goaltenders in the league when factoring in ability, salary and age, so it would be fitting Oilers would get him

    I hope it is none of the three. But my hopes are rarely considered by the Braintrust.

  184. Woodguy says:

    speeds: As always, depends on the deal, but in general, I kind of disagree with that.I’d have no problem, philosophically, with them drafting with all of their picks in the top 100.

    If you’re not prepared to trade futures now to help now then you might as well trade Hall and Eberle because you won’t be competitive during their current contracts.

  185. Unicorns says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”,

    ” The debate around Ichiro. Ichiro, in part due to his defense and arm and prowess on the base paths was for the first 6 or 7 years of his career, the second most valuable player in baseball behind Barry Bonds in terms of WAR.”

    This is the opposite of Eberle. He doesn’t do the hard important things in a meaningful way. He cherry picks, along with most of the other talent. He is Schultz at RW – unfortunately for Schultz his position is way harder. Having Roy and any other person who won’t ‘carry water’ means losing more. I didn’t like Eakins as coach, but his point is valid.

    Kurri covered Gretzky. That is the standard in Oiler culture. The lesser serve the better for the greater good, and not the other way. The better make the sacrifices to get over the top. It is Oiler history, it cannot be re-written.

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