IT’S CLOSING TIME

Elliotte Friedman, the nation’s biggest newsbreaker, has become as important to a Saturday night as a full liquor cabinet. He told us the news about the Oilers and their pursuit of Todd McLellan on Saturday, and added to the prose during his 30 thoughts yesterday.

  • Friedman: The Oilers aren’t commenting about their situation, but several sources both in North America and attending the World Championships say Edmonton is concerned about waiting for Babcock and not getting him. As a result, they are working on closing a deal with Todd McLellan. At this point, it’s as much up to the coach as it is to the Oilers, but at least one other team pursuing McLellan was hearing Saturday that a deal was close, if not done. Whatever the case, Edmonton is making it known they will close on him rather than wait to talk to Babcock. Source

Terry Jones quoted Hall and Ebs the other day, and they seem impressed with McLellan’s style:

  • Hall: “That’s definitely a possibility. You don’t know what he’s thinking but I saw Peter Chiarelli. I don’t know if they interviewed but he’s a great coach. I have a ton of respect for what he teaches and I’ve learned a lot so far.”
  • Eberle: “In a short term event like this, sometimes the coaches can be a little light hearted, but so far McLellan has been on track and on the ball every step of the way. He showed us what he’s all about when we went down by three to Sweden and he kind of rallied us. I have nothing but positive things to say so far. Hopefully he’s one of the candidates. I look forward to see what’s going to happen there.”

My read on all of this? You don’t need a telegram, Sam. Let’s get McLellan and Jay Woodcroft in here right away, so Peter Chiarelli can move on to addressing the defense and goaltending. Besides, it’s been several days since this:

oilers lottery

Does Connor McDavid need a two-way veteran mentor? Someone like Justin Williams? I’m not sure he will need that player if the Oilers can get the phenom into good offensive situations—plenty of O-zone starts and Taylor Hall on the port side. Tyler Seguin had Michael Ryder with him as a rookie along with men like Blake Wheeler, Mark Recchi and Chris Kelly. A combination of size, skill and experience.

Taylor Hall played more (Hall played 954 EV minutes as a rookie in 2010, Seguin 792) and had less experienced help (Eberle & Gagner, although Horcoff did play with him about 30% of the time at 5×5). Would Hall and Justin Williams be a better plan? Or is Hall—Yakupov the way to go?

I have seen the future of the Edmonton Oilers, and it’s name is Connor McDavid. Music!

PROJECTED FIRST ROUND (LOWETIDE EDITION)

  1.  C Connor McDavid, Erie Otters (OHL) Fantastic talent.
  2.  C Jack Eichel, Boston U (NCAA) Franchise player.
  3.  R Mitch Marner, London Knights (OHL) Brilliant offensive player.
  4.  D Noah Hanifin, Boston College (NCAA) Complete skill set, money passer. Best D available.
  5.  C Dylan Strome, Erie Otters (OHL) Big C with skill, tremendous value.
  6.  D Ivan Provorov, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL) Extraordinary ability to move the puck out.
  7.  C Mathew Barzal, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL) Quick, skilled, dangerous. Smart.
  8.  R Mikko Rantanen, TPS Turku (SML) Creative, responsible, great passer.
  9.  D Zach Werenski, Michigan (NCAA) Terrific offensive defender.
  10.  R Timo Meier, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL) Tremendous talent, NHL-ready?
  11.  R Nick Merkley, Kelowna Rockets (WHL) Strong two-way skills.
  12.  R Evgeni Svechnikov, Cape Breton (QMJHL) Big, strong and skilled.
  13.  C Anthony Beauvillier, Shawinigan Cataractes (QMJHL) Small, elite skills.
  14.  D Jeremy Roy, Sherbrooke Phoenix (QMJHL) Offensive D, has ability as a defender
  15.  D Mitchell Vande Sompel, Oshawa (OHL) Undersized two-way defender. Substantial skills.
  16.  C Jansen Harkins, Prince George Cougars (WHL) Two-way center, skilled.
  17.  C Kyle Connor, Youngstown (USHL) Smart two-way forward.
  18.  C Travis Konecny, Ottawa 67’s (OHL) Impressive player with range of skills.
  19.  R Daniel Sprong, Charlottetown Islanders (QMJHL) Quick, skilled first-shot scorer
  20.  D Oliver Kylington, Farjestad (SHL) Great wheels, solid defender.
  21.  L Jake Debrusk, Swift Current (WHL) Goal-scoring winger with speed.
  22.  R Blake Speers, SSM Greyhounds (OHL) Two-way W, good speed. Terrific player.
  23.  C Pavel Zacha, Sarnia Sting (OHL). Big, physical center with average offense. Solid U18’s.
  24.  G Daniel Vladar, Kladno (Czech 2) 8GP, 1.97 .933
  25.  D Ryan Pilon, Brandon (WHL) Two-way defender with size and speed.
  26.  C Joel Eriksson Ek, Farjestad (SEL) Skill C with size, speed.
  27.  C Andrew Mangiapane, Barrie (OHL) Brilliant offensive player.
  28.  L Lawson Crouse, Kingston Frontenacs (OHL) Power forward with vague offensive skills
  29.  C Filip Chlapik, Charlotteteown Islanders (QMJHL) Two-way C, range of skills
  30.  R Jeremy Bracco, USNTDP (USHL) Small forward with fast hands, great skill.

Oilers could walk away with McDavid, Roy and Speers. I suspect we’ll see an early day two selection sent away for a goalie or a defenseman, but dare to dream. I hope the analytics people are hammering Chiarelli and staff with slide rules and Bunsen burners.  We’ll be able to tell you know. If the Oilers are drafting Blake Speers or Zach Senyshyn, if they call out Tyler Soy or Jesse Gabrielle, then we’ll know the math people have found their way into the decision room.

bachman kessy ferguson 14-15

Game three of the Barons-Comets series goes tonight, the next three will be home games for Oklahoma City. I won’t have a GDT up (the RE series moves to afternoons most of this week) but will post updates in the comments section of the 5 o’clock item. One of the things I wonder about Peter Chiarelli so far? No confirmation (that I’ve seen) on his seeing a Barons game. There’s plenty of talent playing (or possibly playing) on that roster, one would think that a chance to see Martin Marincin and others is worth a plane ticket and a day.

As for Darnell Nurse, he may get the call tonight or later this week:

  • Chris Westcott: But as the black aces took to the ice on Sunday at the Cox Convention Center in Oklahoma City, Nurse was not among them. With three games at home over the next four days, Nurse could see his first American Hockey League post-season action of the year as early as game three on Monday.
  • Barons’ coach Gerry Fleming: “We’ll talk about it tomorrow. He’s looked good, he’s performed well. So we’ll evaluate it tomorrow.”

Westcott’s excellent article is here. So far this playoff season, the Barons have been running the following blue:

  • Brad Hunt: 5GP, 0-3-3 with 15 SOG
  • Jordan Oesterle: 5GP, 1-1-2 with a PP goal
  • Martin Marincin: 5GP, 0-2-2
  • Brandon Davidson: 5GP, 0-0-0 with 17 SOG
  • Dillon Simpson: 5GP, 0-0-0
  • David Musil: 3GP, 0-0-0
  • Joey Laleggia: 2GP, 0-0-0

Musil missed some time attending his Grandfather’s funeral but is back and has played both games against the Comets. Who would draw out of the lineup? My guess is they dress seven D unless someone is suffering from an injury. The Barons blue has been productive this spring, Marincin’s presence is clearly a big help. Who should Nurse be paired with? I’ll go Musil, although Davidson might be a good choice as well.

lane2

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

We’re back! 10 this morning, TSN 1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Scott Burnside, ESPN. Ducks—Flames went to OT, McLellan as an Oilers coach.
  • Scott Mitchell, Calgary Sun. We’ll talk CFL draft, Scott will have a mock draft up later today.
  • Dennis King, Oilogosphere Icon. Flames season ends, Oilers offseason rocks on with McLellan possibly close.
  • Bob Weeks, Score Golf. A fabulous playoff at the Players.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide twitter. See you on the radio!

 

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93 Responses to "IT’S CLOSING TIME"

  1. smellyglove says:

    Connor McDavid!!!!!!!!

  2. Ben says:

    If you would have told me this team would add McDavid, Chiarelli and McLellan this summer….I can’t even.

  3. supernova says:

    I will be very pleased if and when the hire McLellan.
    He would be our best coaching hire in a long long time.
    was thinking MacT but it was his first HC job at the time.

    ————-

    Not sure what difference there is in myself wondering about the trade cost of McDonagh and the trade cost for Vlasic.

    I get the NYR and SJS are going different directions but so are there cap issues and D core depth.

    I would make a very “bold” offer for McDonagh but I would expect as I have said many times that either Staal and / or Kein would be moved.

    You never know how Sather might react with coming so close for a couple of years.

  4. smellyglove says:

    I am very OK with McLellan. He’s the 15th winningest coach of all time by points percentage:

    http://www.hockey-reference.com/coaches/NHL_stats.html#coaches::11

    (79th in playoffs… ducks)

  5. Hall Awaits says:

    Love the idea of signing Williams. Give me Soderberg while you’re at it…

    2016
    Pouliot / Nugent-Hopkins / Eberle
    Hall / McDavid / Williams
    Soderberg / Lander / Yakupov
    Hendricks / Gordon / Pakarinen

    2017
    Pouliot / Nugent-Hopkins / Eberle
    Hall / McDavid / Yakupov
    Soderberg / Draisaitl / Williams
    Hendricks / Lander / Yakimov

  6. Obiwan Eberle says:

    Ben:
    If you would have told me this team would add McDavid, Chiarelli and McLellan this summer….I can’t even.

    they should….have sent….a poet…

  7. Ca$h-Money! says:

    Hall Awaits:
    Love the idea of signing Williams. Give me Soderberg while you’re at it…

    2016
    Pouliot / Nugent-Hopkins / Eberle Hall / McDavid / Williams Soderberg / Lander / YakupovHendricks / Gordon / Pakarinen

    2017
    Pouliot / Nugent-Hopkins / Eberle Hall / McDavid / Yakupov Soderberg / Draisaitl / WilliamsHendricks / Lander / Yakimov

    I like that, but I feel like you are going to be spending a lot of money on Williams and Soderberg that we just won’t have. I don’t see the cap going up by giant leaps for the next couple of years, so I wouldn’t want to hamstring myself for wingers. We need D and Goalie, and we will have plenty of expensive skill guys in need of a paycheck within the window of a Williams or Soderberg contract (4 years I’m assuming, Pouliot range).

    We’ve got to find guys who can produce and play roles for $1 million. Since our 4th line has a $2m and a $3m guy on it already, the new talent to play top 9 wing needs to be in the $1m to $2m range. Hence Derek Roy on a 1 year deal, and guys like Pakarinen/Pitlick/Pajaarvi fighting for space. Young guys with offensive upside who haven’t hit it yet, but aren’t terrible or expensive if the offense never arrives.

  8. thejonrmcleod says:

    Would McLellan have the best resume of all the coaching hires in Oilers’ history? (I’m too young to remember Sather’s history before the Oilers.)

  9. Ca$h-Money! says:

    thejonrmcleod,

    Him or Quinn I suppose.

  10. frjohnk says:

    supernova: I would make a very “bold” offer for McDonagh

    no way he gets moved.

    – a number 1 d man in his prime
    – captain
    – 4.7M cap hit makes this a tremendous value contract

    maybe Staal shakes loose before his ntc kicks in july 1

  11. Woodguy says:

    smellyglove:
    Connor McDavid!!!!!!!!

    WWWWWWWWWWOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  12. thejonrmcleod says:

    Ca$h-Money!,

    I forgot about Quinn.

  13. Messier11edm says:

    Couldn’t agree more LT – Let’s get McLellan signed and get out of the Babcock circus.

    Would also agree that goal-tending and defence need to be focus – but cannot forget SIZE.

    We need to get bigger, especially in this conference. Very concerned with how small we are upfront, and you can bet the team will have a much bigger target on its back moving forward. Especially considering how silly some of these talented forwards will make opposing players look.

  14. Ducey says:

    Ca$h-Money!: I like that, but I feel like you are going to be spending a lot of money on Williams and Soderberg that we just won’t have.I don’t see the cap going up by giant leaps for the next couple of years, so I wouldn’t want to hamstring myself for wingers.We need D and Goalie, and we will have plenty of expensive skill guys in need of a paycheck within the window of a Williams or Soderberg contract (4 years I’m assuming, Pouliot range).

    We’ve got to find guys who can produce and play roles for $1 million.Since our 4th line has a $2m and a $3m guy on it already, the new talent to play top 9 wing needs to be in the $1m to $2m range.Hence Derek Roy on a 1 year deal, and guys like Pakarinen/Pitlick/Pajaarvi fighting for space.Young guys with offensive upside who haven’t hit it yet, but aren’t terrible or expensive if the offense never arrives.

    I agree with your 1st paragraph. Not the names in your 2nd.

    The Oilers need some guys that can handle some defensive zone starts and tough competition. MPS and Roy are not those guys. I have more hope for Pitlick and Pak to eventually be those guys.

    If they are going to add up front they need someone like Winnick. Cheap, yet complementary to all the kids.

  15. Ca$h-Money! says:

    Messier11edm,

    Babcock is our Heatly, McLellan our Glencross.

    We’ve been hurt in the whale hunt before… I don’t know if ignoring Babcock in favor of McLellan is a good idea or not, but I think it does say fascinating things about the frame of reference of the organization.

  16. Ca$h-Money! says:

    Ducey,

    Ya that’s fine. As long as it’s cheap guys who can play NHL hockey (this year’s Raymond, Winnik, etc.).

    It’s just gotta be cheap. We can’t afford anymore $3million/year role players. The guys we have in that category I’m good with, but we can’t add anymore or it will make it imposible to add/keep the really important guys.

  17. Messier11edm says:

    Woodguy,

    Met some friends who are Canucks and Flames fans…man, are they ever touchy …lol.

    They came out guns blazing with the usual stuff…” Welcome to Oilers rebuild 3.0″, “No coach will be able to fix mess of a team”…etc, etc….

    Didn’t phase me one bit…..We know, we know what’s coming…my guess is, they do to 🙂

  18. Messier11edm says:

    thejonrmcleod,

    thejonrmcleod:
    Would McLellan have the best resume of all the coaching hires in Oilers’ history? (I’m too young to remember Sather’s history before the Oilers.)

    YES…Slats’ resume began with the Oilers. We haven’t had a coach come in with this type of resume

  19. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Messier11edm,

    Again, Quinn had a pretty long and generally solid resume.

    But yeah, generally we’ve hired new in both the Coach and GM roles.

  20. hunter1909 says:

    You hope Chiarelli understands more than the team’s idiot predecessors; namely, that role players are better acquired while still young enough to go dirt cheap. Bringing in a 3 million role player only begs some 3rd rate schmuck to turn up at camp big headed and freaking useless.

  21. Ducey says:

    Messier11edm:
    thejonrmcleod,

    YES…Slats’ resume began with the Oilers.We haven’t had a coach come in with this type of resume

    Kevin Lowe 6 rings
    T Mac (EDIT) 1 ring

    Enough said 🙂

  22. rickithebear says:

    Hall Awaits: Love the idea of signing Williams. Give me Soderberg while you’re at it…

    Give me cap for the leafs Mcdavid offer sheet!

  23. Cyanide says:

    Ducey: Kevin Lowe 6 rings
    T Mac 0 rings

    Enough said

    Tmac has 1 ring from assistant coaching in detroit. but its still not 6……..

  24. Lowetide says:

    Hall Awaits:
    Love the idea of signing Williams. Give me Soderberg while you’re at it…

    2016
    Pouliot / Nugent-Hopkins / Eberle Hall / McDavid / Williams Soderberg / Lander / YakupovHendricks / Gordon / Pakarinen

    2017
    Pouliot / Nugent-Hopkins / Eberle Hall / McDavid / Yakupov Soderberg / Draisaitl / WilliamsHendricks / Lander / Yakimov

    Sweet Jesus that looks fine.

  25. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Andy Strickland ‏@andystrickland 2m2 minutes ago

    From what I’m being told 2016 projected 1st overall pick Auston Matthews to #ZSC in #swiss league is done deal. Marc Crawford is head coach

  26. slopitch says:

    In 2011, then Leaf GM Brian Burke traded the No. 30 and No. 39 picks in the draft to move up to No. 22 in order to draft winger Tyler Biggs. Those picks, John Gibson and Rickard Rakell. Of course in 2003 the Oilers traded the 17th pick (Zach Parise) to the New Jersey Devils for the 22nd pick (Marc-Antoine Pouliot) and the 68th pick (Jean-Francois Jacques).

    Trade up if you can. Trade down if you can. Just be right.

  27. su_dhillon says:

    A real experienced quality GM and now it looks like a quality, real experienced head coach. A month ago none of this seemed even remotely possible. Mcdavid has turned water to 20 year old scotch.

  28. su_dhillon says:

    Oh also I saw in the last post that Woodguy wrote something about a Yak-Talbot deal that fell through because the Rangers pulled out when Lundquist got hurt.

    Looks like the keys got taken away from Mactavish just in time, honestly feels we missed out on some major mistakes out of pure luck. It could have been much worse. See Clarkson.

  29. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    su_dhillon,

    Ya, when you add that to the third year of Nikitin….

    I’m one to defend MacT’s record, because he’s done some nice things. But when you look at what he just missed on… DAMN that could have been bad. I mean, we’d be totally screwed for YEARS.

  30. hunter1909 says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: I’m one to defend MacT’s record, because he’s done some nice things.

    Dallas Eakins set the team back 2 seasons minimum, wasted the contracts of the good players MacT inherited in the process. When he finally got sacked, MacT was singing the exact same type of praises for Eakins.

    It’s like a freaking cult. A LoweCult, lol.

  31. Thor762 says:

    With McLellan possibly the new coach, and Hall flying for him in Prague, does that up the chances that Hall will be named the new captain finally?

  32. Rondo says:

    Arguably Mike Babcock is the best coach in the NHL. Given that I would say Oilers know he does not want to come to Edmonton. Why else would they be pursuing Todd McLellan so aggressively .

  33. su_dhillon says:

    Thor762:
    With McLellan possibly the new coach, and Hall flying for him in Prague, does that up the chances that Hall will be named the new captain finally?

    Are you then going to strip him of it when Connor can legally drink in the US?

  34. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Rondo:
    ArguablyMike Babcock is the best coach in the NHL.Given that I would say Oilers know he does not want to come to Edmonton. Why else would they be pursuing Todd McLellan so aggressively .

    When you are trying to pick up a girl that is in a group of girls, isn’t the correct strategy to be nice to the ugly one, hit on the middle one, and ignore the pretty one?

    So Babcock is the pretty one, McLellan in the middle one, and Nelson is the ugly one (all relative, in terms of girls and coaches).

    NOTE: I don’t actually condone treating girls &/or coaches like pieces of meat. I’m simply referring to the literature on this one.

  35. Hall Awaits says:

    rickithebear: Give me cap for the leafs Mcdavid offer sheet!

    That’s why anything longer then 3 year deals would probably not work. Williams I think could be had for 3 x 4.5 million a year. Soderberg is much trickier. Love the idea of his C / LW versatility. Can scoot over for Draisaitl if he struggles up the middle. The 4th line is eventually going to be one of the cheapest in the league. That much skill having to get paid in the top 9 in 4 years is going to be ugly.

    But why wreck today thinking about tomorrow to much…

    I’m absolutely pumped for this off season.

  36. Woodguy says:

    Messier11edm: e if the offense never arrives.

    I agree with your 1st paragraph. Not the names in your 2nd.

    I’ll feel better when Chia fixes the D and G.

    I wish MacT wasn’t his #2 as it gives me the heebie-jeebies on D and G.

  37. Ducey says:

    Rondo:
    ArguablyMike Babcock is the best coach in the NHL.Given that I would say Oilers know he does not want to come to Edmonton. Why else would they be pursuing Todd McLellan so aggressively .

    According to Bob MacKenzie, they don’t want to spend 3 weeks chasing around Babcock (and his wife) only to maybe lose Babcock and then find TMac has gone elsewhere.

    You have to figure TMac has earned the right to be told right up front “We want you”, as opposed to “You are our second choice, we will get back to you in a month.”

    You can’t treat coaches like that – unless they are named Todd Nelson 🙂

    My guess is that TMac is already pretty much in the bag, they are just waiting until the IIHF thingy is over to announce it. So a week today.

  38. Dashingsilverfox says:

    It’s entirely possible McLellan doesn’t want to sign until Babcock makes his decision.

    Remember that McLellan is a former Wings assistant and may want a shot at head coach there.

    He may also want to see how much Babcock gets on his new deal since it may affect his own contract.

  39. Richard S.S. says:

    Bob McKenzie is almost always right about most things. His take about why Edmonton is signing Todd McLellan is exactly why I was worried about Babcock. Even if Edmonton was able to sign Babcock, it might not occur until early June or later. You go for the longshot (McDavid for example) when it’s at no cost (able to pick Strome) to you., not when you might get nothing.

  40. russ99 says:

    Hall Awaits:
    Love the idea of signing Williams. Give me Soderberg while you’re at it…

    2016
    Pouliot / Nugent-Hopkins / Eberle Hall / McDavid / Williams Soderberg / Lander / YakupovHendricks / Gordon / Pakarinen

    2017
    Pouliot / Nugent-Hopkins / Eberle Hall / McDavid / Yakupov Soderberg / Draisaitl / WilliamsHendricks / Lander / Yakimov

    Why not Lander – Soderberg – Williams in 2016?

  41. OF17 says:

    Hall Awaits: That’s why anything longer then 3 year deals would probably not work. Williams I think could be had for 3 x 4.5 million a year. Soderberg is much trickier. Love the idea of his C / LW versatility. Can scoot over for Draisaitl if he struggles up the middle. The 4th line is eventually going to be one of the cheapest in the league. That much skill having to get paid in the top 9 in 4 years is going to be ugly.

    But why wreck today thinking about tomorrow to much…

    I’m absolutely pumped for this off season.

    The “why wreck today” talk is what leads GMs to sign Drury and Gomez for almost $15 million in one offseason. Signing Soderberg would be a big mistake, and not because he isn’t good, but because you can’t have $5 million on your third line while being that top heavy in forwards. Sure, maybe you can trade him in 2-3 years, but do you really want to 100% guarantee yourself cap troubles and not have much room to fix the defense?

    Soderberg was a good option until McDavid. Now he’s fantasy of a pre-cap world.

  42. Richard S.S. says:

    I don’t expect the Salary Cap to go up, in any year, more than $2.0 Million. So to sign everyone you need plus everyone you’d like to sign will need everyone moved out than has no future with this Team. And even then you still might not have enough money.

  43. Rational Zealot says:

    I can’t believe anybody is talking about forwards at all. This team needs at least two defenseman and a goalie. Once they have those (whomever they may be) then you can talk about filling out the roster.

    Myself, I think you try and get one D by trade (Staal) and the other by free agency (Sekera) and you try and avoid overpaying for average (Niemi).

    You avoid trading the first round pick if you can, and definitely don’t trade it for anyone with only one year left.

    Then you see where the chips lay. Whatever you do though you can’t mortgage the future in any way. This team could very quickly be in cap hell if they don’t maintain a pipeline of young talent. MacDavid is going to get a monster RFA deal, and if everything goes well then you are going to have to pay to keep the team together. That means you need new young players every single year.

  44. Hall Awaits says:

    russ99: Why not Lander – Soderberg – Williams in 2016?

    Absolutely you could. I just like the idea of a seasoned vet stabilizing the Hall and McDavid duo on year one.

  45. Dominoiler says:

    I feel like no one here has read this yet, credible?!..

    McDavid (may have, by the sweet grace of the Gords) changed everything!..

    https://twitter.com/dstaples/status/593923380065140736

    [If Babcock leaves #RedWings, “no question” top choice would be #Oilers, says TSN’s McKenzie]

  46. ASkoreyko says:

    Dashingsilverfox:
    .
    He may also want to see how much Babcock gets on his new deal since it may affect his own contract.

    Someone else previously had mentioned this as a possibility as well and to me it makes a lot of sense.

    Todd could be negotiating his salary based upon the current coach salary range that exists with Babcock expected to set a high water mark. It might make it a lot more paletable for the Oilers to pay Todd $4M per when Babcock got $5M.

    The easiest way to avoid all of this is just to pay Todd whatever he wants!

  47. Hall Awaits says:

    OF17: The “why wreck today” talk is what leads GMs to sign Drury and Gomez for almost $15 million in one offseason. Signing Soderberg would be a big mistake, and not because he isn’t good, but because you can’t have $5 million on your third line while being that top heavy in forwards. Sure, maybe you can trade him in 2-3 years, but do you really want to 100% guarantee yourself cap troubles and not have much room to fix the defense?

    Soderberg was a good option until McDavid. Now he’s fantasy of a pre-cap world.

    The Edmonton Oilers are officially on the clock to win a Stanley Cup within 3-5 years. McDavid changed everything from a cap management perspective. Offer both Willians and Soderberg 3 years at good money(4.5 range) or walk. Its not worth mortgaging Yakupov or Draisaitl’s future for either of those vets. It’s just a suggestion to bolster our youth forwards with actual strong vet options. Beyond those deal parameters? Stay the course with what we have.

  48. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    That’s gold, Gary – GOLD!

  49. John Chambers says:

    Dashingsilverfox:
    It’s entirely possible McLellan doesn’t want to sign until Babcock makes his decision.

    Remember that McLellan is a former Wings assistant and may want a shot at head coach there.

    He may also want to see how much Babcock gets on his new deal since it may affect his own contract.

    In investment terms, The Edmonton Oilers are the ultimate buy-low stock poised for a re-bound. McLellan (or whoever coaches the Oilers) will have their brand augmented through the team’s inevitable improvement – an attraction McDavidly historic in its opportunity.

    Consider that Detroit will have a tough coaching act to follow, and failure to take an aging team to the playoffs will result in a diminished status behind the legacy of Babcock. Meanwhile Philadelphia has some awful contracts for Hextall to manage around, Buffalo is still poor in terms of assets, and the Toronto Maple Leafs are like Berlin in 1946.

    Chiarelli has a strong negotiating position; McClellan could be squandering an opportunity for exclusivity by waiting for Babcock to land.

  50. John Chambers says:

    Rational Zealot,

    Agreed the priority has to be defense.

    But if this is the summer that many teams are needing to shed salary and Edmonton is one of the most attractive destinations that has some flexibility – free agents at any position should be evaluated.

    Perhaps they have to acquire defensemen via trade.

    Keep good players – GET good players. Wingers fall under this maxim, too.

  51. Richard S.S. says:

    If McDavid doesn’t fall in our laps and goes to someone else, when does Bob Nicholson take over? (He said at the time he actually took over that the Forensic Audit wasn’t finished yet.) Do we still get Chiarelli? Do we still get McLellan? Does the Team still have all our Draft Picks by then?

    In Katz We Trust. Connor McDavid is a massive Franchise-Altering Acquisition. Nothing will ever be the same again. Never would we have Bob Nicholson unless Darryl Katz decides changes must be made. Why Bob Nicholson? Why start last year? What did Katz know?

    The rest of the spring and summer will not be dull, nor will it be uneventful. The anticipation of what is next!

  52. prefonmich says:

    The best part of all this coaching talk is that we and the media are purely guessing because the Oilers are not saying anything. This is music to my ears because we’ve gone from Mr.Dithers not saying much AND not doing much to MacT saying ALOT and still not doing enough (of value) to Chia who seems to me be more a man of action than words.

    I would be more than happy with Maclellan as coach and he perhaps might even be a better fit for this team than Babcock. PLUS he is already building a relationship with two of our top players who seem to also like and respect him…
    Good times ahead regardless!
    I think also the sooner the coach is hired, the earlier PC is on to the next order of business which is player evaluation.

  53. striatic says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    McLellan would be mad to take the Detroit job.

    That Playoff streak is a sword of Damocles hanging over any new coach’s head.

    I don’t envy whoever goes in there next.

  54. Kmart99 says:

    Makes more sense for TMac to wait until Babcock sets the price point.
    TMac most certainly won’t have any trouble finding work, but if he takes a job now he risks leaving more money and more term on the table. haste makes waste.

    If the Oilers try and secure TMac now, there’s still a chance he waits to see where Babcock signs, and for how much.

    If Babcock signs with Edm for an insanely high number like 6M, then TMac will be happy he waited.

  55. striatic says:

    Kmart99,

    T Mac can negotiate right now against the speculative value of the Babcock contract, which might be more than he actually gets.

  56. Pouzar says:

    Can you call McLellan “TMac” when he’s a Mc?

    Just wondering.

  57. Lowetide says:

    Todd McLellan is T-Mac? I don’t think that works.

  58. dannyboy says:

    I dont read too much into players saying good things about a coach…its rare that youd hear players talking poorly about a coach. Especially when he could be your next bench boss.

    Babcock is appealing becuz the wings dont play that physical style game, yet there always competitive. They dont rely on being tough. Detroits been a smaller team and yet they still win. I dont know if that lines up with chia’s heavy hockey tho…

    Whoever coaches next itll be a massive improvement. Im not expecting mcdavid to come in and do it all himself tho. WE NEED DEFENSE. Unless we can exit our zone and get the puck to the forwards were hooped. I expect PC knows this.

    I also like the hopeful lack of bias against players. Marincin being the obvious one. The better player plays full stop.

  59. Rip Fan Winkle "OilOnslaught" says:

    su_dhillon:
    Oh also I saw in the last post that Woodguy wrote something about a Yak-Talbot deal that fell through because the Rangers pulled out when Lundquist got hurt.

    Looks like the keys got taken away from Mactavish just in time, honestly feels we missed out on some major mistakes out of pure luck. It could have been much worse. See Clarkson.

    Terrifying. It seems they had no sense of current value and that also hooped contracts with guys getting overpaid without much to support it. Having McD of course makes Edmonton so much more attractive Peachy’s job is far easier in that regard, overpays not as necessary unless he balls it up too.

  60. Woodguy says:

    Something that needs to be considered.

    The impending doom close.

    This is a sales technique to get your customer to make up their mind faster.

    You put a doom scenario in the situation if they don’t make up their mind quickly.

    “While quantities last!” is the most common “impending doom” close.

    When I was trading lumber and I *knew* i was close I would often say “my price is good until the end of this conversation” it worked often because it was true.

    The Oilers may be using the “impending doom close” on Babcock.

    Chia: “We can’t afford to wait around for Babcock and risk losing both he and McLellen, so I told Freidman we were really close on McLellen. If we really are Babcock’s first choice, let’s put his feet to the fire and find out.”

    It sounds like McLellen is the guy, but don’t be surprised if its Babcock either.

  61. Rip Fan Winkle "OilOnslaught" says:

    Rondo:
    ArguablyMike Babcock is the best coach in the NHL.Given that I would say Oilers know he does not want to come to Edmonton. Why else would they be pursuing Todd McLellan so aggressively .

    Maybe but BN and PC know them all well, and I think Babcock’s style may be an issue for the Oilers roster as it is, going by the link to the Jones piece with Renney.

  62. Yeti says:

    Woodguy: The Oilers may be using the “impending doom close” on Babcock.

    Chia: “We can’t afford to wait around for Babcock and risk losing both he and McLellen, so I told Freidman we were really close on McLellen. If we really are Babcock’s first choice, let’s put his feet to the fire and find out.”

    Yes, this is exactly what I thought. Nothing like lighting a fire under Babcock’s ass by furthering negotiations with MacLellen, especially when the consolation prize is damn fine.

  63. Saul Goodman says:

    Watching the Swedes in WCH. Oliver Ekman-Larsson is something special on the big ice. Points leader in the tournament. What kind of insanity would it take to make him available in a trade?

    Draisatl, Marincin, 16ovr + 1rd 16

  64. thejonrmcleod says:

    Pouzar:
    Can you call McLellan “TMac” when he’s a Mc?

    Just wondering.

    I’m McLeod, but my best friend used to call me “Big Johnny Mac.” John McEnroe was “Johnny Mac.”

  65. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Saul Goodman:
    Watching the Swedes in WCH. Oliver Ekman-Larsson is something special on the big ice. Points leader in the tournament. What kind of insanity would it take to make him available in a trade?

    Draisatl, Marincin, 16ovr + 1rd 16

    Start with Hall and keep adding.

  66. Pouzar says:

    Lowetide:
    Todd McLellan is T-Mac? I don’t think that works.

    No sir. I don’t like it!

  67. vinotintazo says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Start with Hall and keep adding.

    can we trade DSF for OEL?

  68. Younger Oil says:

    Staples with an article which from what I can tell is ranking the Oilers from most useful/valuable to least, based totally on scoring chances for and against.

    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2015/05/10/which-edmonton-oilers-players-should-peter-chiarelli-keep-and-which-should-he-look-to-move/

    Interesting, but disregards zone starts and doesn’t seem to put huge weight on quality of competition. Says that Schultz is our best/most valuable Dman, and says that the Wagon Line are essentially our least valuable forwards, which really makes the list lose value, to me at least.

    EDIT: He also values Marincin and Fayne the same as Ference and Nikitin, which is also bizzare.

  69. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide,

    Until you look at the defense and realize all u can afford is Brad Hunt and other bargain priced dmen cause u spent all your money on forwards.

    No to Soderberg or any forwards that will cost more than 3 million a year. Fixing this dcorps disaster is not going to be cheap.

  70. dustrock says:

    It’s Staples. That’s his methodology.

  71. linkfromhyrule says:

    Younger Oil: Staples with an article which from what I can tell is ranking the Oilers from most useful/valuable to least, based totally on scoring chances for and against.

    I have always found it amusing how Staples will rail against his perceived “Corsi Conspiracy” and how the “conspirators” seek to only view players through a narrow, flawed stat. Ahem. Pot, kettle, black.

    Anyway, Schultz being our best dman is both damning by faint praise, and extremely questionable. Klef, Marincin, and Fayne (if a partner can be found for him), are all better now. Spoon feeding Schultz Ozone starts and easier competition would also boost his scoring chance number. Unreal that he wouldn’t take that into account, and then attempt to draw conclusions from it.

  72. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    leadfarmer,

    Yup. Gotta find a few pieces to play for $1million. That’s an important part of this off season. With $1million guys if it doesn’t work out you’re not worse for wear burying them in the minors, there’s no cap impact. Paying guys $3million (or 4.5) and then regretting it can’t be in the cards this off season. It just can’t.

  73. raventalon40 says:

    I could see a deal for Lehner happening

  74. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Pouzar:
    Can you call McLellan “TMac” when he’s a Mc?

    Just wondering.

    Lowetide:
    Todd McLellan is T-Mac? I don’t think that works.

    “They’ve got the Big Mac, I’ve got the Big Mick”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=29wNCH4RBrk

  75. rich says:

    About 6 weeks ago had a chance to talk to some hockey people in Detroit and asked them about Babcock and the likelihood he’d return. They were very pessimistic.

    I then asked if they thought it was possible and McClellan switch places (like 2 years ago when Torts and Vigneault traded places).

    While they were mildly surprised/intrigued by the thought, the unanimous feeling was that if Babcock leaves, Blashill (their AHL coach) will be the most likely to get the job and that McClellan was a very low probability.

    FWIW. I think our competition for McClellan is more likely Buffalo or Philly.

  76. leadfarmer says:

    If you’re looking for a forward to help with the defense part of the game look at winnik. 2 mil a year will be more than enough to entice him.

  77. leadfarmer says:

    Saul Goodman,

    He’s also something special on the small ice, to bad no one goes to watch him in Arizona.

  78. G Money says:

    Younger Oil: Interesting, but disregards zone starts and doesn’t seem to put huge weight on quality of competition.

    Yep. His stats are similar to raw Corsi in that regard. They contain lots of valuable information (I know I’m going against the grain on this one), but like any such raw stat, need a lot of context to be useful when applied to the assessment of individual players. Staples doesn’t seem to get that.

    linkfromhyrule: I have always found it amusing how Staples will rail against his perceived “Corsi Conspiracy” and how the “conspirators” seek to only view players through a narrow, flawed stat. Ahem. Pot, kettle, black.

    Precisely.

  79. Bootstrap Effexor says:

    Finally a thread to rid me of my former user name, whose purview was numbered.

  80. linkfromhyrule says:

    raventalon40:
    I could see a deal for Lehner happening

    If we could leverage some sort of deal with Ottawa where they send us Wiercioch and one of Lehner or Anderson it would be a great deal for the Oil and potentially solve two needs.

    My understanding from here is that Wiercioch has become somewhat of an Ottawa’s Jeff Petry (that hurt me to type). These are the type of D we need to target, undervalued and cheap.

  81. Ducey says:

    leadfarmer:
    Lowetide,

    Until you look at the defense and realize all u can afford is Brad Hunt and other bargain priced dmen cause u spent all your money on forwards.

    No to Soderberg or any forwards that will cost more than 3 million a year.Fixing this dcorps disaster is not going to be cheap.

    You can afford Soderberg and Williams but it would put them in cap hell.

    It would likely mean a buyout of Ference, Nikitin and Purcell. They would have to trade Schultz or non tender him.

    They are at $16 M in cap space now (with Gazdic, R. Hamilton and Pak), not counting Schultz, McDavid, or Marincin. Assuming Marincin and McDavid make $3 M between them, that leaves them with $13 M

    If they buyout Ference, NN and Purcell, that clears out 12.75 but then they have a buyout cost this year and next of $4.25 M. So net would clear out would be $8.5 M

    $13M + $8.5 M = ~$21 M in cap space. They would then need to pay Williams $4.5 M, Soderberg $3.5M, Sekera $5 M and Seabrook $5.8M. That’s $18.8, leaving $2.2 for Talbot/ wiggle room.

    That leaves a D Corp of Klefbom, Marincin, Seabrook, Sekera, Fayne and maybe Davidson (who would take Gazdic’s salary).

    Could not afford Niemi.

    I would be very tight and not advisable, but it could work for a year. God forbid anyone gets hurt, Talbot underperforms, or McD gets all his bonus because there would be little room for depth/ mid season pick ups.

    The following season would be really tight too. Seabrook would need a big raise, Klef would be an RFA and I didn’t realize this, Talbot would be UFA.

    Thankfully it will not happen.

  82. Gerta Rauss says:

    Obiwan Eberle: they should….have sent….a poet…

    Ha!…is this from the movie Contact..? …love that book/movie

    I thought I read that Babcock was going to visit the cities he was interested in and yet we haven’t heard/seen Edmonton on the agenda(yet, that I know of…) I’d be fine with Mclellan and whoever he chooses as assitants.

    edit-I’m fine with TMac, only because Tbone is taken
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gXTlAJrgGEY

  83. G Money says:

    Idle thought while mulling on adding a winger (which for the record, IMO should not be considered until C depth is addressed, which should not be considered until D is addressed, which should not be considered until G is addressed): what would Matt Beleskey (UFA this summer) cost?

    Small sample size warning, but man he’s been a monster – and a Flames killer – for the Ducks.

  84. Ducey says:

    G Money:
    Idle thought while mulling on adding a winger (which for the record, IMO should not be considered until C depth is addressed, which should not be considered until D is addressed, which should not be considered until G is addressed): what would Matt Beleskey (UFA this summer) cost?

    Small sample size warning, but man he’s been a monster – and a Flames killer – for the Ducks.

    You pay him for his playoff performance, to get his regular season performance. Pass.

  85. bendelson says:

    raventalon40: I could see a deal for Lehner happening

    Would you like to make another bet Raven? Haha!

  86. Saul Goodman says:

    It might be “sub-optimal” asset management wise to pay “price premium” this off-season for a marquee defender. Maybe a year to early to outplay the Phil Iveys of this league in a hand. Maybe we need an “Ivey” league educated GM.

    OEL could be the next Lidstrom. Probably better to use assets to acquire two top four defenders and take a page from Anaheim/Tampa defense setup, then swing for the fences in CMD year two.

    leadfarmer:
    Saul Goodman,

    He’s also something special on the small ice, to bad no one goes to watch him in Arizona.

  87. leadfarmer says:

    Ducey,

    Why would you pay a 33 year old 0.5 ppg center making 3 mil a year, 4.5 mil per. That’s a big raise. And I know he’s a two way center. Sounds like Soderberg is going to want 4 to 5 million. So you pay 9 mil for 2 third liners. Let’s say you bring in Talbot and he pans out. Well he’s going to want to get paid like a starter. Having some cap flexibility is a good thing to have. Blowing your cap space on third liners, just because you have some is foolish.

  88. leadfarmer says:

    Saul Goodman,

    Yes but he is 23 years old and is still years from his prime and has another 15 productive years in the league. If he is at all available they should go get him even at top dollar. Big blue bubbles in the top left corner on a team as bad as the coyotes, while scoring 23 goals does not become available often.

  89. frjohnk says:

    leadfarmer:
    Saul Goodman,

    Yes but he is 23 years old and is still years from his prime and has another 15 productive years in the league.If he is at all available they should go get him even at top dollar.Big blue bubbles in the top left corneron a team as bad as the coyotes, while scoring 23 goals does not become available often.

    OEL is available?

  90. Ducey says:

    leadfarmer:
    Ducey,

    Why would you pay a 33 year old0.5 ppg center making 3 mil a year, 4.5 mil per.That’s a big raise.And I know he’s a two way center.Sounds like Soderberg is going to want 4 to 5 million.So you pay 9 mil for 2 third liners.Let’s say you bring in Talbot and he pans out.Well he’s going to want to get paid like a starter.Having some cap flexibility is a good thing to have.Blowing your cap space on third liners, just because you have some is foolish.

    Agreed. I was just pointing out it could be done.

  91. prairieschooner says:

    The coaching thing seems to be Tyler v Taylor 2.0
    I know we have dumped on the Oilers for not doing their due diligence in the past, but these are known commodities
    These are two mature savvy whales, not easily landed if the Oilers can hook one of them it will last us a lifetime.

  92. AnOmYnOuS1 says:

    frjohnk: OEL is available?

    They said they’d ideally like to keep him so it would have to be a really good offer. Always been a fan of his and watching him and Klef together has been great. He’s a 1D so he wouldn’t be cheap, probably a pretty big cost that a few years later would hurt. Have to wonder though if the Pen’s pick and our 1st next year could start a conversation. They would love to add the hometown guy and another lottery ticket for the drawing might perk their interest. Naturally the two 1st round picks would only be the start of the package.

  93. Mr DeBakey says:

    frjohnk: OEL is available?

    No
    Buncha spitballers hereabouts

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