SLEDGEHAMMER

It’s important to reiterate something that happened last month, and that’s the verbal from the McDavid family. I don’t know about you, but the anticipation of Connor McDavid arriving at the draft to be selected by Edmonton is rocket fuel for the soul.

  • Brian McDavid: “If he’s selected first overall by the Oilers on draft day, it’s going to be a big thrill for him.” Source

I was lucky enough to be an Oilers fan when the all-time greats first rolled into town and believe me it’s less a bolt of lightning in the early days and more like a promise of a change in the weather on the horizon. We know Connor McDavid is special, we know he’ll change this city and organization forever, but what will it look like?

That’s what I would encourage you to do at this point in time. Sit yourself down and get a really good feeling in your mind about what it’s been like to be an Oilers fan these last years. Hold that thought in your mind, get a really good feel for it. And then next May revisit that feeling and see how it shines. I’ll tell you, the day Edmonton drafted Kevin Lowe, Mark Messier and Glenn Anderson not a lot changed (not on that day) and we really didn’t have any idea about Gretzky’s impact either.

gretzky oilAn amazing moment in history, but no hint of Stanley’s in the news item that ran. I can tell you that John Short (then of the Oilers) met the plane at the airport and picked up the trio to take them to a hotel. Mio informed Short they’d refueled using his credit card, and was hopeful that could be repaid before his wife found out and went into shock. “The WHA” and “unpaid” met a lot in the same sentence back in the day.

Anyway, enjoy this please. At some point we had a sense of things being grand but you must remember the Oilers were getting screwed over left, right and center by the NHL during this time too (the Oilers and Winnipeg Jets were pummeled repeatedly during the expansion draft process). I probably remember the rage over losing Bengt Gustafsson (after being promised he could remain an Oiler) more than anything during that time.

Gretzky had 6 points in eight games with the Racers, but posted 104 in 72GP after arriving in our town. We were absolutely in love by Valentine’s Day and that bond remains for player and city. As a fan, I hope McDavid and my city have a similar relationship over the next several decades.

Part of this thrill is the anticipation. Drink deep. This is the good stuff.

nelson capture34

The Oilers have reportedly (via Elliotte Friedman) given Todd Nelson permission to check out the other 29 head coaching jobs to see if anything shakes loose. At this point, I imagine Nelson has some conflicting thoughts rolling all round his brain. Selfishly, I’d love to see him stay, helping with the transition from minors-to-majors for prospects like Anton Lander (the last six months of Lander’s career scream Nelson’s value).

That said, Todd Nelson has earned the right to coach his own team and I sincerely hope he gets it. Last season’s performance must have had an impact in the industry and maybe there’s a Carolina out there for him. Godspeed, Todd Nelson.

If that’s the case, St. Louis may be convinced to move him during the coming season, possibly at the deadline. Chiarelli once sent Sobotka away (in a terrible deal at about the same time as the Oilers were drafting Tyler Pitlick), would love to see him make it right by getting the talented forward for the Oilers.

  • Jim Rutherford is looking for a first-round pick and the Penguins are a team I can see Chiarelli doing business with at the draft. I doubt Olli Maatta or Derrick Pouliot are available, however.
  • 25 years is a long damn time. How long? Forever.

FIRST ROUND MOCK

Every Saturday, I post my draft list and every Saturday someone says “no way that happens” and then I post “this list isn’t designed to predict the first round” and that tells me there might be some interest in what we all think in terms of what will actually happen. With that in mind, here’s a mock.

  1. Edmonton: C Connor McDavid. If they don’t pick them, may the Hockey Gods fire them all into the sun.
  2. Buffalo: C Jack Eichel. Stunning player, he was exceptional at the WHC’s. Franchise player.
  3. Arizona: C Dylan Strome. The desert dogs finally get their big skill C.
  4. Toronto: R Mitch Marner. There’s simply too much offense to pass on.
  5. Carolina: D Noah Hanifin. Hurricanes get fantastic luck and nab the best D in the draft.
  6. New Jersey: C Mathew Barzal. Incredible skater, tremendous vision. Cornerstone piece for the offense.
  7. Philadelphia: L Lawson Crouse. I’m sorry, it’s just too perfect.
  8. Columbus: D Ivan Provorov. Instant offense from the blue, he’s going to be special.
  9. San Jose: R Nick Merkley. Dynamic offensive player, he’ll shine on the coast.
  10. Colorado: R Mikko Rantanen. Range of skills is too much to pass on despite needs elsewhere.
  11. Florida: D Zach Werenski. The building of a monster blue continues.
  12. Dallas: D Jeremy Roy. He falls into their laps and will impact the WC for years.
  13. Los Angeles: R Timo Meier. A real straight shooter, impact offensive prospect.
  14. Boston: C Pavel Zacha. Big man for the big plans of Cam Neely.
  15. Calgary: L Evgeni Svechnikov. Big, strong and skilled. Buggers.
  16. Edmonton: D Jakub Zboril. Oilers reach for a two-way defender because it’s their way.
  17. Winnipeg: C Anthony Beauvillier. Because the Jets are good at this stuff.
  18. Ottawa: C Travis Konecny. They’ll love the modern Bobby Clarke.
  19. Detroit: C Jansen Harkins. A perfect Red Wing.
  20. Minnesota: C Kyle Connor. Smart forward with skill.
  21. Buffalo: R Brock Boeser. Power winger for the future.
  22. Washington: D Thomas Chabot. Another quality defender off the list.
  23. Vancouver: L Jake DeBrusk. Scoring winger spiked this past season.
  24. Toronto: R Blake Speers. Fantastic skill winger.
  25. Winnipeg: R Daniel Sprong. Because the Jets are run by smart people.
  26. Montreal: C Filip Chlapik. Two-way C.
  27. Arizona: D Mitchell Vande Sompel. Some kind of talent.
  28. Philadelphia: C Nicolas Roy. Rugged two-way C.
  29. Anaheim: C Colin White. Impressive two-way C.
  30. Tampa Bay: C Joel Eriksson Ek. Two-way C.

Leaving an absolutely insane amount of talent for the top of round two. Crazy.

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124 Responses to "SLEDGEHAMMER"

  1. Woodguy says:

    Philadelphia: L Lawson Crouse. I’m sorry, it’s just too perfect.

    Ha!

    I think Hanifin goes 3rd or 4th btw.

    The NHL is figuring out that #1 Dmen aren’t getting traded anymore regardless how many times people point at a Pronger trade from 10 years ago during the special circumstances when a cap was imposed.

  2. RexLibris says:

    I’d quibble with your mock draft a bit and say that Hextall takes Provorov if he is there over Crouse. I know Crouse looks like a Flyer, but I think he looks more like a Bobby Clarke Flyer than a Hextall one.

    And if Calgary takes Svechnikov I’d be relieved. Kid has amazing skill, but he’s a winger rather than the D they need or another skilled C. He’s comparable to Crouse but has, if I read Pronman correctly, a higher talent ceiling but a less mature work ethic.

    I can see Burke and Treliving taking Konecny instead, if Crouse is gone, but if they take Svechnikov and Harkins is still there I’d be very, very happy.

  3. Lowetide says:

    WG: We’ll see. Arizona has their big 1C right there and the Hunter boys know London Knights players like the back of their hands. On merit, Hanifin could easily go No. 3, I agree with that for sure.

  4. KillStrake says:

    Woodguy,

    Arizona has OEL, and Toronto has Reilly.

  5. flyfish1168 says:

    Its a foregone conclusion that Conner will be drafted by the Oilers. Wondering if he will get the complimentary visit to Edmonton prior to the draft. Has anyone heard?

  6. Psyche says:

    I was a Jets fan at the end of the WHA thru to their departure for Arizona. Reading that story about Gretzky reminds me of the talent the NHL stripped away from the Jets. That was rage worthy!
    So many possibilities for the Oilers in regards to pick #16. I hope they hold on to it as long as possible to see if a fitting talent slides to that slot. I’m not sure that Pittsburgh is willing to part with the talent that is worthy of the #16 pick (and fits the Oilers needs).

  7. G Money says:

    Assuming that the top 5 are a given, and that of the segment 6 to 15, I suspect two GMs will go walkabout … interesting to consider which of that group might be available at 16.

  8. frjohnk says:

    maybe we can get David Perron for that 16th pick

  9. Lowetide says:

    G Money:
    Assuming that the top 5 are a given, and that of the segment 6 to 15, I suspect two GMs will go walkabout … interesting to consider which of that group might be available at 16.

    I would love any of Roy, Meier or Werenski from the 10+ group above.

  10. Lowetide says:

    Psyche:
    I was a Jets fan at the end of the WHA thru to their departure for Arizona. Reading that story about Gretzky reminds me of the talent the NHL stripped away from the Jets. That was rage worthy!
    So many possibilities for the Oilers in regards to pick #16. I hope they hold on to it as long as possible to see if a fitting talent slides to that slot. I’m not sure that Pittsburgh is willing to part with the talent that is worthy of the #16 pick (and fits the Oilers needs).

    The Jets were a stronger team than the Oilers at the end of 78-79, but the got clobbered by expansion. Just awful stuff.

  11. G Money says:

    This one’s for WG, who is the biggest SAC fan I know:

    http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2015/5/24/8640893/stop-scoring-adjusting-tiny-samples

    I remain ‘suspicious’ of SAC despite having deconstructed Tulsky’s formula a half dozen times. It intuitively doesn’t sit well with me, but I haven’t really been able to explain why. The article above seems to capture at least some of my misgivings.

    Thoughts?

  12. Rondo says:

    If Zach Werenski was available after #10 , I would think Oilers might consider trading up.

  13. Mr DeBakey says:

    Edmonton: D Jakub Zboril. Oilers reach for a two-way defender because it’s their way.

    There is a new conductor leading the orchestra.
    Lets see if the tune changes.

    So Harkins was getting the o-zone starts because Malgin was the Swiss’ d-zone man.

    Your mock likely leaves Juulsen available at 33. Good choices!

    15th + what to Columbus for the 8th?

  14. Bag of Pucks says:

    It will be tough to resist the temptation to compare McDavid to Gretzky, but we should try our damnedest.

    Enough pressure on Connor already. No one can live up to that comparison.

  15. frjohnk says:

    G Money:
    Assuming that the top 5 are a given, and that of the segment 6 to 15, I suspect two GMs will go walkabout … interesting to consider which of that group might be available at 16.

    and every year there is a prospect or two that slide like Filip Forsberg did.

    But I don’t think that helps Edmonton much (unless some other team really wants that pick) as I don’t see any of the D sliding. If using that 16th, I hope they pick a D man, but don’t reach too much.

    Id like it best if they can trade that pick for a top 4 d man. Otherwise we are waiting until 2018 or 19 for that prospect to bear fruit. I want to eat right now!

  16. Rondo says:

    Mr DeBakey,

    If Oilers do take a D-man at #16 I would say they would take Zachary Senyshyn if still available at #33

  17. dustrock says:

    Zboril is a pretty good prospect, but man it’s killing me to see the names the Oilers are passing on. Really think we’ll argue more over the 16th than we would have over the 3rd.

  18. Lowetide says:

    G Money:
    This one’s for WG, who is the biggest SAC fan I know:

    http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2015/5/24/8640893/stop-scoring-adjusting-tiny-samples

    I remain ‘suspicious’ of SAC despite having deconstructed Tulsky’s formula a half dozen times.It intuitively doesn’t sit well with me, but I haven’t really been able to explain why.The article above seems to capture at least some of my misgivings.

    Thoughts?

    My thought doesn’t apply to WG, but for me the single biggest problem with all of this comes from folks (like me) who don’t really understand the concepts and YET present them as if we do. It’s extremely dangerous imo, and one of the reasons this blog hasn’t strayed from ZS’s etc during the RE series and other moments.

    I’m smart enough to know that understanding these concepts as they happen in real time is enough of a challenge for me. Presenting them incorrectly to the public, as has happened in these years, is harmful to the cause.

  19. RexLibris says:

    If Werenski is there at 10 I wonder if Roy and Sakic mull their options about trading down for an immediate defenseman.

    Not sure if either Marincin or Schultz piques their interest, but I’d explore it. And yes, I’m probably telegraphing my opinion of them as hockey executives in this proposal. That and daydreaming about a Nurse/Werenski defense pairing just gives me goosebumps.

  20. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    WG: We’ll see. Arizona has their big 1C right there and the Hunter boys know London Knights players like the back of their hands. On merit, Hanifin could easily go No. 3, I agree with that for sure.

    Salient points.

  21. dustrock says:

    Rondo:
    Mr DeBakey,

    If Oilers do take a D-man at #16 I would say they would take Zachary Senyshynif still available at#33

    This is such a crazy draft you might get Senyshyn later than that.

    Also wonder how far Kylington drops.

  22. Woodguy says:

    G Money:
    This one’s for WG, who is the biggest SAC fan I know:

    http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2015/5/24/8640893/stop-scoring-adjusting-tiny-samples

    I remain ‘suspicious’ of SAC despite having deconstructed Tulsky’s formula a half dozen times.It intuitively doesn’t sit well with me, but I haven’t really been able to explain why.The article above seems to capture at least some of my misgivings.

    Thoughts?

    Saw that this morning.

    I agree that “score adjusting” one game is near useless, but still better than raw corsi for one game.

    I don’t think I invoke SAC in samples that small.

  23. leadfarmer says:

    I dont think Philly passes on Provorov since they have been looking for a #1 dman for ever. The Blue Jackets would be ecstatic if Provorov drops to them, otherwise I think that pick is going to be traded for whoever is the best dman money and a first round pick can buy

  24. Lowetide says:

    dustrock:
    Zboril is a pretty good prospect, but man it’s killing me to see the names the Oilers are passing on. Really think we’ll argue more over the 16th than we would have over the 3rd.

    Probably. I did the mock quickly so it would be impossible to talk myself into anything 🙂

  25. Woodguy says:

    KillStrake:
    Woodguy,

    Arizona has OEL, and Toronto has Reilly.

    True, but that doesn’t preclude them from adding Hanifin imo.

    OEL is under contract for only 4 more years, then is UFA.

    Reilly is a great young player, but he’s miles from being and established 1D and may never become one.

  26. Bag of Pucks says:

    Mock has Kylington sliding out of the first. Wow.

    Every year a very good player slides down the board because of verbal on ‘attitude’ concerns. They’re freaking teenagers! Of course some of them are less than fully mature.

    Wonder if Kylington will be the poster boy for that syndrome this draft?

  27. Traktor says:

    I think Hanifin goes #3. You can’t just judge a player on the playoffs but Strome was terrible. It’s a down arrow and Hanifin is probably the bpa anyways.

  28. Mr DeBakey says:

    Rondo:
    Mr DeBakey,

    If Oilers do take a D-man at #16 I would say they would take Zachary Senyshyn if still available at#33

    The more I see of Harkins, the more I like
    So
    A Center at 15
    A RHD at 33 – Juulsen or Meloche
    At 57 another F – Wagner, Beaudin, Knott….

    Wagner would be my Senyshyn substitute.

  29. commonfan14 says:

    Just a great post today, with the 1-2 punch of McDavid anticipation and a Gretzky trade reminder.

    People bemoaning that we’re still miles from the playoffs or wondering if we can tinker our way to a Cup team in the next 3 years are missing the point in my opinion.

    A genius at our favourite pastime is coming to demonstrate his gifts for us at least 82 nights a year. The reason a lot of us obsess about this team enough to be on this board is because we had that once and it made an impact that has never gone away.

    It’s happing again.

    Woot indeed.

  30. Bos8 says:

    Just as a point of interest – Brandon Carlo. 6′ 5 200 and mean. Somehow him going with Nurse would really tickle my risibilities. The Oilers as intimidators who woulda thunk it.. Some have him going as high as 19.

  31. Bag of Pucks says:

    Woodguy: True, but that doesn’t preclude them from adding Hanifin imo.

    OEL is under contract for only 4 more years, then is UFA.

    Reilly is a great young player, but he’s miles from being and established 1D and may never become one.

    And given what you’ve mentioned about the difficulty of acquiring 1D outside the draft, it speaks to the value of them as tradeable assets. Draft Hanifan. Flip OEL for a 1C and Yotes rebuild is in business.

  32. Woodguy says:

    Mr DeBakey:
    Edmonton: D Jakub Zboril. Oilers reach for a two-way defender because it’s their way.

    There is a new conductor leading the orchestra.
    Lets see if the tune changes.

    So Harkins was getting the o-zone starts because Malgin was the Swiss’ d-zone man.

    Your mock likely leaves Juulsen available at 33. Good choices!

    15th + what to Columbus for the 8th?

    I agree that Bob Green having the “last say” is a good thing for the org.

    Poster Supernova (@romanmaximus1 ) was waxing poetic on twitter the other day about Green’s track record in the WHL :

    Woodguy ‏@Woodguy55 May 20
    @romanmaximus1 I like Green, but he needs to grab undersized out-scorers in the later rounds and not big swings on larger players.

    Supernova
    ‏@romanmaximus1
    @Woodguy55 have you seen his WHL track record for that?

    Supernova ‏@romanmaximus1 May 20
    @Woodguy55 his track record in the dub was outstanding with Med Hat for finding un drafted & undersized players. Really surprised a MSM hasn’t produced a article or story on it. Very good before he became GM of OK than that record speaks for itself

    Supernova ‏@romanmaximus1 May 20
    @Woodguy55 players like Darren Helm, Kris Russell, Clarke Mcarthur & Joffrey Lupul are just a few of his late or undrafted Med Hat players

    So if Green is a guy who can spot undersized value in the bantam draft time and again, I expect him to do the same in the NHL draft.

    This also leads me to believe that the Oiler’s two step of “Dman with 2nd pick when you have two in the first” may also get tossed overboard.

    Pretty excited that Green is running the draft this year.

    I expect lots of value with the picks that Chi (correctly) doesn’t trade for immediate help.

  33. Rondo says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    I would suspect the combine and the interviews will be very important. Kylington could end up being the #16 pick.

  34. Woodguy says:

    Bag of Pucks: And given what you’ve mentioned about the difficulty of acquiring 1D outside the draft, it speaks to the value of them as tradeable assets. Draft Hanifan. Flip OEL for a 1C and Yotes rebuild is in business.

    OEL would fetch a King’s ransom.

    I’d trade Hall straight up for him (no, DSF don’t derail the thread) and I’m a massive Hall fan who correctly values him as one of the best in the NHL.

  35. godot10 says:

    Lowetide:
    WG: We’ll see. Arizona has their big 1C right there and the Hunter boys know London Knights players like the back of their hands. On merit, Hanifin could easily go No. 3, I agree with that for sure.

    Babcock isn’t going to leave Hanifin on the board. This is a guy who had Nik Lidstrom, and couldn’t get near a Stanley Cup without him.

    So if Arizone doesn’t pick Hanifin (Maloney drafted Ekman-Larsson high), Toronto will at #4, and trade Kessel and Gardiner to Carolina for the #5, Semin, and something.

    And then pick Marner at #5, walking away with Hanifin and Marner.

  36. Bag of Pucks says:

    Woodguy: OEL would fetch a King’s ransom.

    I’d trade Hall straight up for him (no, DSF don’t derail the thread) and I’m a massive Hall fan who correctly values him as one of the best in the NHL.

    Yes, but would you trade Drai for him?

    That may be a opportunity Chia will have to consider if the Yotes draft Hanifan.

    Love the player, but I would trade Nuge over Drai (Leon getting the edge cos of contract & size).

  37. godot10 says:

    Lowetide: The Jets were a stronger team than the Oilers at the end of 78-79, but the got clobbered by expansion. Just awful stuff.

    In the best draft in NHL history, John Ferguson took Jimmy Mann. They did it to themselves also.

  38. PeOiler says:

    Montreal: C Filip Chlapik. Two-way C

    Tale of Intrest:

    I hear Montreal still have their headlights pointed towards Chlapiks team-mate Alexandre Goulet. He was a training camp invite for the Habs last year after he went undrafted.

  39. Lowetide says:

    godot10: Babcock isn’t going to leave Hanifin on the board.This is a guy who had Nik Lidstrom, and couldn’t get near a Stanley Cup without him.

    So if Arizone doesn’t pick Hanifin (Maloney drafted Ekman-Larsson high), Toronto will at #4, and trade Kessel and Gardiner to Carolina for the #5, Semin, and something.

    And then pick Marner at #5, walking away with Hanifin and Marner.

    That would be fantastic for Toronto. Seriously.

  40. Rip Fan Winkle "OilOnslaught" says:

    Lowetide: My thought doesn’t apply to WG, but for me the single biggest problem with all of this comes from folks (like me) who don’t really understand the concepts and YET present them as if we do. It’s extremely dangerous imo, and one of the reasons this blog hasn’t strayed from ZS’s etc during the RE series and other moments.

    I’m smart enough to know that understanding these concepts as they happen in real time is enough of a challenge for me. Presenting them incorrectly to the public, as has happened in these years, is harmful to the cause.

    Thanks for saying that. Even the guys that used to develop these metrics made mistakes that were often only caught when there were enough of those types reading each other and peer reviewing in the comments.

    It’s a hard road even for folks with significant stats backgrounds professionally. It’s a shame so much has disappeared from the webs for those newish to the scene to get grounded with.

    I like your approach LT, keeping it simple which keeps things more clear. Bring in the best players possible by understanding and using all of the available tools (stats, scouting experience, good fits for the desired style and future state of the game), treat the kids well, and hope for the best.

  41. Woogie63 says:

    If Hanifin falls to #5 what would it take to trade down and get him and CMD?

  42. Woodguy says:

    Bag of Pucks: Yes, but would you trade Drai for him?

    That may be a opportunity Chia will have to consider if the Yotes draft Hanifan.

    Love the player, but I would trade Nuge over Drai (Leon getting the edge cos of contract & size).

    In a heartbeat.

    Would not trade RNH.

  43. Bag of Pucks says:

    Rondo:
    Bag of Pucks,

    I would suspect the combine and the interviewswill be very important. Kylington could end up being the #16 pick.

    Will be interesting. I’d prefer we flip the pick for a proven 2D but would certainly not be too upset if they landed Kylington in that slot. That said, he doesn’t have a lot of goals for a projected offensive defenceman. That could be a red flag.

  44. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: That would be fantastic for Toronto. Seriously.

    Pretty damn good for CAR too.

    CAR was a good SAF team last year with low SH% and rotten SV%.

    That deal, plus a goalie would make them a playoff contender for sure.

  45. Snowman says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Nuge is on the never trade list for the next 5 years minimum and probably longer. Drai will likely be a fantastic player but Nuge is the goods right now and for the next decade.

  46. RexLibris says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Mock has Kylington sliding out of the first. Wow.

    Every year a very good player slides down the board because of verbal on ‘attitude’ concerns. They’re freaking teenagers! Of course some of them are less than fully mature.

    Wonder if Kylington will be the poster boy for that syndrome this draft?

    The recent poster boy for that was Nick Ebert. The earliest mock drafts, a year in advance, had him in the top ten, then the season rolled out and LA took him with the VERY LAST PICK in 2012.

    Since then he hasn’t really reached his potential, but that was a precipitous drop for such a previously highly-regarded prospect.

    We could probably throw Greg Chase into that mix as well.

    For me, the all-time classic example was Alexei Cherepanov. I watched that draft and TSN had a camera on him from about the 4th overall selection to his eventual selection at 17th overall.

  47. Rip Fan Winkle "OilOnslaught" says:

    If we’re trading for a top D that probably isn’t available, would anyone trade Eberle or Pitts first and Schultz/Yak for Justin Faulk?

  48. sliderule says:

    A Czech that can fight and likes to hit to hurt .Thirteen goals in 44 games.

    LT that’s more like it.

    An oiler that Chia and fans would like.

  49. dustrock says:

    Bos8:
    Just asa point of interest – Brandon Carlo.6′ 5 200 and mean.Somehow him going with Nurse would really tickle my risibilities.The Oilers as intimidators who woulda thunk it..Some have him going as high as 19.

    Carlo is a tough one. The size and skating are there, but not the scoring and passing at the junior level.

    There are probably 10-12 D prospects I’d draft over him.

    But maybe I’m just afraid of Teubert 2.0.

  50. A'bunadh says:

    Rondo:
    Bag of Pucks,

    I would suspect the combine and the interviewswill be very important. Kylington could end up being the #16 pick.

    I certainly can see him being the 19th pick. Detroit looking for their next Lidstrom. I ust can’t see him sliding out of the first round but stranger things have happened I guess.

  51. godot10 says:

    Woogie63:
    If Hanifin falls to #5 what would it take to trade down and get him and CMD?

    Carolina is desperate for D. If Hanifin makes it to #5, it would be next to impossible to get them to trade out.

    The Oilers best shot at Hanifin is trading Draisaitl to Arizona, and Maloney would have have to like Draisaitl more than Strome. I think there will be a good D at #16 or a trade for a D with #15, so I would lean to just keeping Draisaitl. I like the mix of centre types in Nugent-Hopkins, Lander, McDavid, and Draisaitl (though I wish one was a rightie).

  52. thejonrmcleod says:

    Remember the good ol’ days when we used to argue about who should be drafted at #3? Great times those were.

  53. godot10 says:

    Rip Fan Winkle “OilOnslaught”:
    If we’re trading for a top D that probably isn’t available, would anyone trade Eberle or Pitts first and Schultz/Yak for Justin Faulk?

    Carolina is short D as it is. They are not trading Faulk, period.

  54. godot10 says:

    If the Oilers use #33, and Kylington is still available, that is the spot to take him. There are enough good players without question marks to pick at #16.

  55. RexLibris says:

    A’bunadh: I certainly can see him being the 19th pick.Detroit looking for their next Lidstrom.I ust can’t see him sliding out of the first round but stranger things have happened I guess.

    He does have a Detroit feel to him, but I suspect they’d be concerned about drafting another Jakub Kindl that high. They may take him because they can see something we can’t, and I like the player, but there have been multiple criticisms of him recently over his ability to defend – I think at least some of these are related to him playing his off side.

  56. Ducey says:

    I can’t see any way Nelson gets a head coaching job in the NHL this year. He was still below .500 and the stink of a 28th place finish won’t wear off that fast.

    He doesn’t have a large NHL track record to look at like most of the other more famous coaches, nor does he seem like the type to blow someone’s doors off during the interview process.

    There are only 3 jobs right now. DET, BUF and SJS. DET would take their AHL coach over Nelson. SJS has been interviewing a bunch of more famous types. Nelson doesn’t seem to have been interviewed. BUF I guess could have interest, but the optics of losing out on Babcock and settling on Nelson don’t work. Maybe BOS will fire Julien, but they are not going to go to anyone that doesn’t have substantial ties to Neely.

    Does Nelson deserve it? Maybe. But as Little Billy found out, “deserves got nothing to do with it.”

  57. Woodguy says:

    Ducey:
    I can’t see any way Nelson gets a head coaching job in the NHL this year.He was still below .500 and the stink of a 28th place finish won’t wear off that fast.

    He doesn’t have a large NHL track record to look at like most of the other more famous coaches, nor does he seem like the type to blow someone’s doors off during the interview process.

    There are only 2 jobs right now. DET and SJS.DET would take their AHL coach over Nelson.SJS has been interviewing a bunch of more famous types.Nelson doesn’t seem to have been interviewed.Maybe BOS will fire Julien, but they are not going to go to anyone that doesn’t have substantial ties to Neely.

    Does Nelson deserve it?Maybe.But as Little Billy found out, “deserves got nothing to do with it.”

    BUF needs a coach too.

  58. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Florida has Kulikov, Gudbranson, Ekblad and Petrovic on the big club aged 24 and under.
    They have Matheson and McCoshen bubbling under in the pipeline.
    The Panthers can’t score their way out of a wet paper bag and are relying on the gracefully aging Boyes and Jagr to provide offence this coming season.
    I’m thinking they take a high scoring forward when they pick as it fits their need in the short and long term.

    Loved the mock draft though LT.
    Keep em coming!
    Mock…yeah…ing…yeah….bird… yeah…

  59. Rondo says:

    If Jeremy Roy is gone at #16 , Oilers would have to seriously consider Kylington. If both of these D-men are gone I could see Oilers taking a forward at #16.

    Arizona, Columbus. and Colorado will take a D-man. Hanifin, Provorov and Werenski

  60. oliveoilers says:

    Bag of Pucks: They’re freaking teenagers!

    Sorry, BOP, but teenagers destroyed the Death Star. We expect more from them.

  61. fifthcartel says:

    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2015/05/24/washington-capitals-rearguard-mike-green-is-not-a-good-free-agent-fit-for-the-edmonton-oilers/

    Willis makes the case for signing Franson over Green, and man, Franson looks really really good. I would sign him immediately, pair him with Klefbom or the other new hire.

    Franson just seems like a perfect fit, I’m going to quickly search to see if there was any buzz about Franson and Boston when Chairelli was there.

  62. frjohnk says:

    Rankings of D men in the first round

    ISS

    5 Noah Hanifin (D)
    7 Ivan Provorov (D)
    11 Zachary Werenski (D)
    16 Thomas Chabot (D)
    21 Brandon Carlo (D)
    22 Jakub Zboril (D)
    23 Jérémy Roy (D)
    29 Noah Juulsen (D)
    30 Gabriel Carlsson (D)

    McKeens Hockey

    3 Noah Hanifin (D)
    5 Ivan Provorov (D)
    7 Zachary Werenski (D)
    15 Thomas Chabot (D)
    16 Jakub Zboril (D)
    21 Brandon Carlo (D)
    22 Jérémy Roy (D)
    25 Jacob Larsson (D)
    26 Jonas Siegenthaler (D)
    27 Oliver Kylington (D)

    Future Considerations

    3 Noah Hanifin (D)
    6 Zachary Werenski (D)
    8 Ivan Provorov (D)
    14 Jérémy Roy (D)
    19 Oliver Kylington (D)
    21 Thomas Chabot (D)
    22 Jakub Zboril (D)
    23 Brandon Carlo (D)
    29 Jacob Larsson (D)

    Hockey Prospectus

    3 Noah Hanifin (D)
    7 Ivan Provorov (D)
    9 Zachary Werenski (D)
    10 Jérémy Roy (D)
    12 Thomas Chabot (D)
    13 Oliver Kylington (D)
    21 Jakub Zboril (D)
    22 Brandon Carlo (D)
    29 Nicolas Meloche (D)

    Teams I could see drafting D men before the 16th pick
    1 of Yotes, Leafs, Canes take Hanifan
    Philly,
    Columbus
    Colorado
    Boston

    Its up for debate which teams will pick D man but I think 5 D will be picked before the 16th

    My guess is
    Hanifan
    Provorov
    Werenski

    are absolute locks to go

    with 2 of Chabot, Roy, Zboril likely gone

    If using the 16th pick, Id like the oilers to draft a D man but there is likely better value left on the board with forwards.

  63. John Chambers says:

    I loathe the idea of trading Draisaitl, but if that’s the price you have to pay to land OEL I think you have to forego the luxury of three #1 centers to fix the hole on D.

    The only caveat is what to add to the package of Drai + to land a young top Dman. Marincin – sure. Second round picks – all day. But for me OEL as a target works well provided that the asking price doesn’t include Klefbom or Nurse, and that we get to keep the pick at 16 OV.

    The key to 16 OV is that with the dearth of centers in this draft you’ll find a C to play behind McD and RNH in 3-4 years. For that reason Drai is the valued asset I think Chiarelli needs to feel free to trade if it means fixing the blueline in the here and now.

  64. G Money says:

    Woodguy: Saw that this morning.

    I agree that “score adjusting” one game is near useless, but still better than raw corsi for one game.

    I don’t think I invoke SAC in samples that small.

    No, I wasn’t trying to imply that you do – only that the article suggests it would be a mistake if anyone does.

    However, the author ‘Draglikepull’ also asserts that score adjusted Corsi is not better than raw, even as a descriptor at the individual game level – or maybe more accurately, not better than other common methods in use, like 5×5 or 5×5 Close.

    Bruce’s distant relative Micah Blake believes that Draglikepull is wrong in that regard and intends to write that up. Will be interesting to hear what he has to say. I do like Micah’s version of the formula better than Tulsky’s (if I implement SAC in any of my work, that’s what I will use), though my misgivings remain.

    Lowetide: but for me the single biggest problem with all of this comes from folks (like me) who don’t really understand the concepts and YET present them as if we do. It’s extremely dangerous imo, and one of the reasons this blog hasn’t strayed from ZS’s etc during the RE series and other moments.
    I’m smart enough to know that understanding these concepts as they happen in real time is enough of a challenge for me. Presenting them incorrectly to the public, as has happened in these years, is harmful to the cause.

    Yeah, that’s a really interesting point. When I first encountered the whole fancystats arena, I was (like so many) suspicious. After researching for quite a while and getting a sense of the enormous amount of work behind the whole thing, I became less suspicious.

    That said, I don’t like to actually use the concepts and equations until I’ve run the numbers myself and developed an ‘intuitive feel’ for their correctness. Funny thing for a hard data / hard equations guy to say, right?

    It’s why, despite being a numbers guy, I found accounting surprisingly difficult at first. Many of the concepts are counterintuitive for me, and it took a lot of work to overcome the resulting sense of distrust.

    I understand the rationale and the equations behind SAC, but I still don’t have that intuitive feel, so I haven’t hopped on board the wagon.

  65. godot10 says:

    fifthcartel:
    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2015/05/24/washington-capitals-rearguard-mike-green-is-not-a-good-free-agent-fit-for-the-edmonton-oilers/

    Willis makes the case for signing Franson over Green, and man, Franson looks really really good. I would sign him immediately, pair him with Klefbom or the other new hire.

    Franson just seems like a perfect fit, I’m going to quickly search to see if there was any buzz about Franson and Boston when Chairelli was there.

    Franson is barely better than Justin Schultz, and far worse than Jeff Petry. Barely a #4. The franchise that he suckers will get an albatross of a contract.

    Book it.

  66. Bag of Pucks says:

    oliveoilers: Sorry, BOP, but teenagers destroyed the Death Star.We expect more from them.

    As a father of 18 & 20 year old lads, I have a more ‘nuanced’ pov.

    I’m not hoping for Death Star destruction at this point. I’d settle for good jobs and not knocking up their girlfriends.

  67. G Money says:

    John Chambers,

    John Chambers: I loathe the idea of trading Draisaitl, but if that’s the price you have to pay to land OEL I think you have to forego the luxury of three #1 centers to fix the hole on D.

    Unquestionably. It’s not even a matter of filling a hole on D.

    A team with two #1 centers and a #1 D is a contender.

    A team with three #1 centers and no # 1 D is likely to be more pretender than contender. That said, in the Oilers case, when one of your #1C is McDavid, you are going to be a contender even without a #1D. But it’s far from certain. That plus M-A-F is a big part of the reason why Sidney Crosby only has one cup.

  68. G Money says:

    godot10: Franson is barely better than Justin Schultz, and far worse than Jeff Petry.Barely a #4.The franchise that he suckers will get an albatross of a contract.

    Book it.

    Would be interesting to hear your counterpoints to J. Willis’s points about Franson, rather than a blanket ‘far worse than Petry’.

    The money paragraph from Young Willis is as follows, with my highlights as to his points that I would be interested to hear your counterpoints:

    His name is Cody Franson. Green ranked No. 12 in power play scoring on our list; Franson ranked No. 4 despite being on a worse power play. Green recorded 1.01 points per hour at five-on-five; Franson recorded 0.96. Franson played tougher opposition, and had an ugly 45.1 percent zone start over this span of time. Franson didn’t just narrowly outperform his team; Toronto saw massive spikes in goal and Fenwick percentage when he was on the ice vs. when he wasn’t. Franson’s bigger (6’5”, 213 pounds), younger (turns 28 in August), kills penalties and has taken three years to accumulate as many missed games as Green had this season alone.

  69. G Money says:

    Interesting series of tweets from Terry Jones:

    Terry Jones ‏@sunterryjones 1 hr1 hour ago
    Asked Bodog.ca if they could produce odds, re Babcock and McDavid-McLellan of which Canadian team should be favored to next win Stanley Cup.

    Terry Jones ‏@sunterryjones 1 hr1 hour ago
    Told they couldn’t put up a line on such a bet. Can’t put up a line on something that may never happen or might happen long into the future.

    Terry Jones ‏@sunterryjones 1 hr1 hour ago
    But if they cold ,,,
    Edmonton 3-1
    Montreal 4-1
    Calgary 5-1
    Winnipeg 5-1
    Toronto 6-1
    Vancouver 7-1
    Ottawa 8-1.
    Thanks to oddsmaker Adam Burns

  70. godot10 says:

    G Money: Would be interesting to hear your counterpoints to J. Willis’s points about Franson, rather than a blanket ‘far worse than Petry’.

    The money paragraph from Young Willis is as follows, with my highlights as to his points that I would be interested to hear your counterpoints:

    His name is Cody Franson. Green ranked No. 12 in power play scoring on our list; Franson ranked No. 4 despite being on a worse power play. Green recorded 1.01 points per hour at five-on-five; Franson recorded 0.96. Franson played tougher opposition, and had an ugly 45.1 percent zone start over this span of time. Franson didn’t just narrowly outperform his team; Toronto saw massive spikes in goal and Fenwick percentage when he was on the ice vs. when he wasn’t. Franson’s bigger (6’5”, 213 pounds), younger (turns 28 in August), kills penalties and has taken three years to accumulate as many missed games as Green had this season alone.

    Franson has never played the tough minutes role in Toronto. Phaneuf played the tough minutes. Petry played the tough minutes role for three seasons in Edmonton, and in no time was the clear #3D in Montreal. Franson could barely get on the ice for Nashville in the playoffs.

    He is bigger than Petry and Green, but far less physical. If Edmonton fans criticized Petry for being soft, Franson is pillowy soft.

    Franson has the Toronto hype factor going for him like Eakins did. Franson’s only two decent (#4D quality years were contract years). I view him as #4.5. A 2nd pairing guy in a pinch. A 3rd pairing guy on a good team. That doesn’t move the needle in Edmonton, and will be an albatross of a contract.

    I’m not necessarily trying to persuade you. I am just telling you. I am content to let events demonstrate that I am correct on Franson, like I was correct on Eakins.

    The new advanced stats gurus in Leafs management ran away from offering a big money contract to Franson. Poile, after the playoffs, feels stupid for being suckered by Franson a 2nd time, but at least for him, it will not have long term damage (apart from losing the draft pick). But 5 years, and $5.5 milliion in cap space will be deadly.

    P.S.

    I prefer Petry over Green, and Green over Franson. Babcock will keep Phaneuf, so I’ve crossed him off the list as a possible.

    I want to give the offensive minutes to Klefbom and Nurse and Schultz, so the D I think the Oilers should be looking for should be stronger defensively than offensively but strong passers with above average mobility.

  71. Ryan says:

    G Money:
    This one’s for WG, who is the biggest SAC fan I know:

    http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2015/5/24/8640893/stop-scoring-adjusting-tiny-samples

    I remain ‘suspicious’ of SAC despite having deconstructed Tulsky’s formula a half dozen times.It intuitively doesn’t sit well with me, but I haven’t really been able to explain why.The article above seems to capture at least some of my misgivings.

    Thoughts?

    The danger that I see is that advanced stats is sort of a misnomer. The people at the forefront of advanced stats revolution use low-level analysis like correlation coefficients without p-values. They then often make bold conclusions based on eyeball-level stats analysis which then turns into fact in our community.

    Now before I go one step further, I’d like to prefece this by saying we would be far better served by having someone a whole lot smarter than myself in terms of academic statistics–say Parkatti be the stats police here. The rust that’s grown on my brain from using academic stats is very thick–so I would not be offended at all if anyone here would like to correct me on anything in this post.

    In this article: http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2012/1/23/2722089/score-adjusted-fenwick?_ga=1.180957408.693232551.1432484515

    Tulsly doesn’t really describe a lot of detail for his methodology for the main analysis, but it sounds one seasons worth of analysis.

    He correlation coefficients for fen close vs score-adjust fenwick for 20 games and 30 games are 0.43 vs 0.46, and 0.41 vs 0.43 respectively.

    He concludes: “Ealy in the season, Score-Adjusted Fenwick does a substantially better job of predicting how many points a team will earn in the remainder of the season…”

    Now that’s a pretty bold conclusion from my point of view when in reality we’re really talking about two very close and weak correlation coefficients.

    By my math using the first online stats calculator I found, we’d need roughly 300 fenwick events per game to reach statistical significance for the 20 game mark.

    http://www.danielsoper.com/statcalc3/calc.aspx?id=104

    Regardless, I’d question if a correlation coefficient of 0.46 is substantially better than 0.43.

  72. Rip Fan Winkle "OilOnslaught" says:

    godot10: Carolina is short D as it is.They are not trading Faulk, period.

    As is Arizona who have no good reason to deal OEL. Both teams have money issues but still have to attract fans to survive and meet the floor.

  73. rich says:

    godot10: Franson has never played the tough minutes role in Toronto. Phaneuf played the tough minutes.Petry played the tough minutes role for three seasons in Edmonton, and in no time was the clear #3D in Montreal.Franson could barely get on the ice for Nashville in the playoffs.

    He is bigger than Petry and Green, but far less physical.If Edmonton fans criticized Petry for being soft, Franson is pillowy soft.

    Franson has the Toronto hype factor going for him like Eakins did.Franson’s only two decent (#4D quality years were contract years).I view him as #4.5.A 2nd pairing guy in a pinch.A 3rd pairing guy on a good team.That doesn’t move the needle in Edmonton, and will be an albatross of a contract.

    I’m not necessarily trying to persuade you.I am just telling you.I am content to let events demonstrate that I am correct on Franson, like I was correct on Eakins.

    The new advanced stats gurus in Leafs management ran away from offering a big money contract to Franson.Poile, after the playoffs, feels stupid for being suckered by Franson a 2nd time, but at least for him, it will not have long term damage (apart from losing the draft pick).But 5 years, and $5.5 milliion in cap space will be deadly.

    P.S.

    I prefer Petry over Green, and Green over Franson.Babcock will keep Phaneuf, so I’ve crossed him off the list as a possible.

    I want to give the offensive minutes to Klefbom and Nurse and Schultz, so the D I think the Oilers should be looking for should be stronger defensively than offensively but strong passers with above average mobility.

    Agree w/Godot 100%. I don’t have fancy stats but will give you a couple of observations from having seen Franson play here in Nashville.

    1. Godot says he’s ‘pillowy soft’. Boy is that BANG ON. Edmonton fans will crucify him for his lack of physical play.

    2. In the playoffs, Franson was healthy scratched in Game 1, and he was also healthy in several games down the stretch. Even when he played in the playoffs, his minutes were lowest of the d-men on the roster. Admittedly, NAS had the depth on defense to be able to go with others, but when Weber went down in the playoffs and Franson had his chance, he was a 3rd pairing d-man who did not deliver.

    The only way Franson makes sense is as a replacement for Schultz and I can’t believe PC came here to make sideways moves on defense because the Oilers won’t get better this way. Sign him, and we’ll rue the day.

  74. Marc says:

    Posted for the entertainment value: http://www.thestar.com/sports/hockey/2015/05/23/maple-leafs-may-have-steal-in-rimouskis-frederik-gauthier.html

    Gauthier had less than a point a game in the Q in his draft +2 season.

    If you look at the players picked after Gauthier in the first round that year:
    – Dano and Burakovsky are both in the NHL and look like future top six forwards
    – Poirier had a great rookie season in the AHL, putting up .75 ppg
    – Hartman and Shinkaruk had decent rookie seasons in the AHL, putting up .54 and .43 ppg respectively
    – Theodore was one of the best D in WHL
    – McCarron, Klimchuk and Dickinson all put up more than 1.2 ppg in major junior

    So if by ‘steal’ you mean ‘every other player drafted after him in the first round looks like a better prospect’, yeah the Leafs totally got a steal with Gauthier.

  75. rickithebear says:

    Are the forwards able to outscore a dman’s defence?
    Cause they play defence.
    Are the d able to make a transition pass.
    Cause the forwards drive offence.

  76. rickithebear says:

    Faulk
    2.76 evga/60
    Our forwards cannot outscore that.

    Eberle……..

    Throws up

  77. John Chambers says:

    Franson reminds me of Jaro Spacek in his prime. Loved the player during his brief but sensational time as an Oiler.

  78. Ray says:

    Dashingsilverfox:
    Franson to the Canucks?

    http://www.theprovince.com/sports/Botchford+Canucks+sure+could+former+Giant+Cody+Franson/11069710/story.html

    I’d love to see it. It would likely lead to Van getting younger on defence. If they end up ditching Bieksa because Franson goes there then great!

  79. SwedishPoster says:

    Word this side of the pond is that Håkan Andersson is really high on Kylington, he likes his high upside guys, so I think there’s a pretty soild chance Detroit grabs him if he’s still around at 19. Håkan was very high on Erik Karlsson his draft and was supposed to have been quite disappointed Ottawa got to him first.

  80. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    John Chambers:
    Franson reminds me of Jaro Spacek in his prime. Loved the player during his brief but sensational time as an Oiler.

    Agreed – Spotcheck was a great part of that blueline, but the Pronger effect was oh so strong.

  81. rickithebear says:

    Martin 1st comp 1.64 evga/60
    Oduya 2nd comp 1.88

  82. Rondo says:

    frjohnk:
    Rankings of D men in the first round

    ISS

    5Noah Hanifin (D)
    7Ivan Provorov (D)
    11Zachary Werenski (D)
    16Thomas Chabot (D)
    21Brandon Carlo (D)
    22Jakub Zboril (D)
    23Jérémy Roy (D)
    29Noah Juulsen (D)
    30Gabriel Carlsson (D)

    McKeens Hockey

    3Noah Hanifin (D)
    5Ivan Provorov (D)
    7Zachary Werenski (D)
    15Thomas Chabot (D)
    16Jakub Zboril (D)
    21Brandon Carlo (D)
    22Jérémy Roy (D)
    25Jacob Larsson (D)
    26Jonas Siegenthaler (D)
    27Oliver Kylington (D)

    Future Considerations

    3Noah Hanifin (D)
    6Zachary Werenski (D)
    8Ivan Provorov (D)
    14Jérémy Roy (D)
    19Oliver Kylington (D)
    21Thomas Chabot (D)
    22Jakub Zboril (D)
    23Brandon Carlo (D)
    29Jacob Larsson (D)

    Hockey Prospectus

    3Noah Hanifin (D)
    7Ivan Provorov (D)
    9Zachary Werenski (D)
    10Jérémy Roy (D)
    12Thomas Chabot (D)
    13Oliver Kylington (D)
    21Jakub Zboril (D)
    22Brandon Carlo (D)
    29Nicolas Meloche (D)

    Teams I could see drafting D men before the 16th pick
    1 of Yotes, Leafs, Canes take Hanifan
    Philly,
    Columbus
    Colorado
    Boston

    Its up for debate which teams will pick D man but I think 5 D will be picked before the 16th

    My guess is
    Hanifan
    Provorov
    Werenski

    are absolute locks to go

    with 2 of Chabot, Roy, Zboril likely gone

    If using the 16th pick, Id like the oilers to draft a D man but there is likely better value left on the board with forwards.

    Red Line report has Jeremy Roy at #10 then the next D is Kylington

    Corey Pronman has Kylington higher than Roy and then a gap when you get down to Chabot and Zboril.

  83. square_wheels says:

    godot10,

    Oduya, Martin and Michalek could all be had at 3-4 for 2-3Yrs, I’m leery of Franson and Green, Rhd shouldn’t cloud cap management decisions.
    Edit-Martin would be worth a hard look if the injury history is well understood, don’t need a Timmonen or a Vish. And he’s gonna cost more than 4 on a 3 yr.

  84. Jon K says:

    Read, Couturier, and Crouse could actually be a great two-way line for the Flyers. Interesting.

  85. misfit says:

    I gotta say LT, I really disagree with your top 30 ranking here.

  86. square_wheels says:

    rickithebear,

    If all we did was add these 2 for 3 years, I would be a happy man. Adding Spurgeon in a picks & Schultz deal would be amazing. Almost as amazing as my MLA being voted in…..yes I live in that riding in Calgary.

  87. G Money says:

    square_wheels,

    We are neighbours!

  88. Lowetide says:

    misfit:
    I gotta say LT, I really disagree with your top 30 ranking here.

    Grrrrr…….

  89. HBomb says:

    LT,

    If one player that you don’t have in your mock actually slips to 33OV, my neighbors are going be wondering on June 27th “Who the hell is Paul Bittner and why some idiot yelling his name at the TV at 805am on a Saturday?”

    I might be falling victim to saw-him-good-itis here, but the guy is big, mean and has skill on top of those attributes.

    He’ll go 20-30 spots later than Crouse and may have the better NHL career.

    McDavid at 1, Roy at 15 (if they don’t deal the pick for D), Bittner at 33, deal the MTL 2nd for a goalie.

  90. Lowetide says:

    HBomb:
    LT,

    If one player that you don’t have in your mock actually slips to 33OV, my neighbors are going be wondering on June 27th “Who the hell is Paul Bittner and why some idiot yelling his name at the TV at 805am on a Saturday?”

    I might be falling victim to saw-him-good-itis here, but the guy is big, mean and has skill on top of those attributes.

    He’ll go 20-30 spots later than Crouse and may have the better NHL career.

    McDavid at 1, Roy at 15 (if they don’t deal the pick for D), Bittner at 33, deal the MTL 2nd for a goalie.

    I’d be fine with that, for me this could be an insane draft. There’s so much and the Oilers have a TON of picks!

  91. blainer says:

    HBomb:
    LT,

    If one player that you don’t have in your mock actually slips to 33OV, my neighbors are going be wondering on June 27th “Who the hell is Paul Bittner and why some idiot yelling his name at the TV at 805am on a Saturday?”

    I might be falling victim to saw-him-good-itis here, but the guy is big, mean and has skill on top of those attributes.

    He’ll go 20-30 spots later than Crouse and may have the better NHL career.

    McDavid at 1, Roy at 15 (if they don’t deal the pick for D), Bittner at 33, deal the MTL 2nd for a goalie.

    Wow I posted almost the exact same thing on an earlier thread.. For me CMD ROY and BITTNER .. what a draft that would be.. I will be shocked if Bittner is still there at 33 but if he is DO NOT trade that pick..

  92. HBomb says:

    From Hockey DB, draft year numbers

    Bittner: 71p in 66g (1.08ppg), 6’4″ 204lbs, November 1996 birthday

    Crouse: 51 in 59g (0.91ppg), 6’4″ 215lbs, June 1997 birthday

    Both are LH left wingers.

    If both are on the board at 16 (unlikely because Crouse will go top ten), I’d be more likely to select Bittner than Crouse. The hype around the latter is, to put it politely, unjustified.

  93. HBomb says:

    blainer,

    blainer: Wow I posted almost the exact same thing on an earlier thread.. For me CMD ROY and BITTNER .. what a draft that would be.. I will be shocked if Bittner is still there at 33 but if he is DO NOT trade that pick..

    Big fan of the player. Wanted Henrik Samuelsson to do something filthy to Bittner during the 2014 WHL finals.

    Despise him when he’s against you, want him in your trench when you go to battle. He fits the mould of “actual player with size and edge” that the Oilers need more of. It’s basically the polar opposite of the reach pick of Moroz at 32OV in 2012.

  94. stush18 says:

    misfit:
    I gotta say LT, I really disagree with your top 30 ranking here.

    Which parts? Care to elaborate? At this point its pretty much guesswork until bobs list comes out, although we can make pretty good guesses. This is my list.

    Edmonton: C Connor McDavid.
    Buffalo: C Jack Eichel.
    Arizona: R Mitch Marner. I think the domi-dvorak-marner connection is too strong. Spent a lot of time watching him this year im sure.
    Toronto: C Dylan Strome-leafs grab the local big center
    Carolina: D Noah Hanifin-lucky bastards, they grin like idiots making this pick
    New Jersey: C Mathew Barzal. I dont think they risk taking a high D after how long it took larsson to start to perform
    Philadelphia: L Lawson Crouse- dont think he falls further than this, and he fits the big western style perfectly.
    Columbus: D Ivan Provorov. I think hes too dynamic to pass up.
    San Jose: Nick Merkley-sure San Jose has been watching him on the west coast this year
    Colorado: Zach Werenski-this draft is ridiculous. American born puck moving D. No way colorado skips him after choosing mckinnon over jones.
    Florida: R Mikko Rantanen- florida takes another big and skilled forward
    Dallas: Jeremy roy- dallas needs their zubov
    Los Angeles: timo meier- how has he fallen this far?
    Boston: C Pavel Zacha. Fits the bruins style
    Calgary: Kylington- flames take the risk and pulls off a draft steal
    Edmonton: D Jakub Zboril. Oilers follow flames
    Winnipeg: C Anthony Beauvillier. Because the Jets are good at this stuff.
    Ottawa: C Travis Konecny. They’ll love the modern Bobby Clarke.
    Detroit: C Kyle Connor. Detroit has been going the american way lately
    Minnesota: C Jansen Harkins. Good fit with minnys style
    Buffalo: R Brock Boeser. Power winger for the future.
    Washington: D Thomas Chabot
    Vancouver: L Jake DeBrusk. West coast guy, would have watched him lots
    Toronto: R Blake Speers. Fantastic skill winger.
    Winnipeg: R Daniel Sprong. Because the Jets are run by smart people.
    Montreal: C Filip Chlapik. Two-way C.
    Arizona: D Mitchell Vande Sompel. Some kind of talent.
    Philadelphia: C Nicolas Roy. Rugged two-way C.
    Anaheim: C Colin White. Impressive two-way C.
    Tampa Bay: C Joel Eriksson Ek. Two-way C.

    I would say the last 10 or so pick could be meshed with the following ten or so picks, and noone would be truly upset.

  95. Marc says:

    HBomb:
    From Hockey DB, draft year numbers

    Bittner: 71p in 66g (1.08ppg), 6’4″ 204lbs, November 1996 birthday

    Crouse: 51 in 59g (0.91ppg), 6’4″ 215lbs, June 1997 birthday

    Both are LH left wingers.

    If both are on the board at 16 (unlikely because Crouse will go top ten), I’d be more likely to select Bittner than Crouse.The hype around the latter is, to put it politely, unjustified.

    The fact that Crouse is 8 months younger would make me lean the other way. Bittner is one of the oldest players in the draft, which may make him look better than he actually is.

  96. rickithebear says:

    square_wheels:
    rickithebear,

    If all we did was add these 2 for 3 years, I would be a happy man.Adding Spurgeon in a picks & Schultz deal would be amazing. Almost as amazing as my MLA being voted in…..yes I live in that riding in Calgary.

    That mla was thought to be better than the goverment.
    40 years of monkey,s running oil.
    Should have had a base for down turns.
    I have held all three partiy membership.
    Keep the people happy!

  97. supernova says:

    Woodguy: I agree that Bob Green having the “last say” is a good thing for the org.

    Poster Supernova (@romanmaximus1 ) was waxing poetic on twitter the other day about Green’s track record in the WHL :

    Woodguy ‏@Woodguy55May 20
    @romanmaximus1 I like Green, but he needs to grab undersized out-scorers in the later rounds and not big swings on larger players.

    Supernova
    ‏@romanmaximus1
    @Woodguy55 have you seen his WHL track record for that?

    Supernova ‏@romanmaximus1May 20
    @Woodguy55 his track record in the dub was outstanding with Med Hat for finding un drafted & undersized players. Really surprised a MSM hasn’t produced a article or story on it. Very good before he became GM of OK than that record speaks for itself

    Supernova ‏@romanmaximus1May 20
    @Woodguy55 players like Darren Helm, Kris Russell, Clarke Mcarthur & Joffrey Lupul are just a few of his late or undrafted Med Hat players

    So if Green is a guy who can spot undersized value in the bantam draft time and again, I expect him to do the same in the NHL draft.

    This also leads me to believe that the Oiler’s two step of “Dman with 2nd pick when you have two in the first” may also get tossed overboard.

    Pretty excited that Green is running the draft this year.

    I expect lots of value with the picks that Chi (correctly) doesn’t trade for immediate help.

    As per our Twitter Discussion I am obviously very happy Green is a key piece in the amateur draft room.

    We do know MacT likes Green as he is the one who convinced him to move from Oil Kings to Oilers.

    Seemingly Bob Nicholson also likes him as the time frame of Green being put on top of Scouting was in tune with the forensic Audit.

    Greens history in the WHL is about value.

    Size isn’t a major item, he has a history of smaller players and larger players. He found value in the Bantam Draft early with picks like Lazar & Reinhart, he also found value late or undrafted with players like Lupul or Kris Russel.

    The main common theme to Greens history is he loves “hockey sense” or “hockey IQ” in a sense he just is good at finding hockey players.

    If Chia also listens to Green I have full faith it will be different than past draft themes.

    2014 theme was draft players we don’t have to sign for awhile
    2013 draft size

    And so on

    The best scout can only do his work really well if the GM allows it.

    My only 2 hesitations on Chia are
    1) cap management
    2) draft history

    The first could be explained by winning a cup and as we know cup winning players all get paid.

    The second item is more concerning to me but maybe he has learned or maybe it was Cam Neely barking in his ear about ” Boston bruin” players. Like Tyler Seguin was not

  98. spoiler says:

    HBomb,

    The difference in birthdays and linemates (both of which are substantial) can easily account for that small PPG gap.

  99. Barcs says:

    M-E Vlassic was interviewed at the Memorial Cup just now, and I have to say I have never heard him speak before but I was very impressed with how intelligent he is. A member of the NHLPA, and seemed very knowledgeable on a wide number of topics, from what is going to happen in SJ to getting a team inQuebec City.

    Boy I would be ecstatic if we could acquire him for the Oil.

  100. spoiler says:

    I know trading for Adam Larsson has been a common theme around these parts for a couple of years–a proposal that I myself have pushed from time to time–but the Devils have a couple of decent RHD coming through their system… and virtually no 1st round draft picks in the past while.

    They’ve accepted their rebuild and might really like another 1st rounder to jumpstart the effort.

    So, question…

    Is the 16th overall too much to pay for Larsson (a 4th OV in 2011)?

    Is this a kid on the cusp who is ready to explode?

    Will he never fully bring the O, but will become world class in his own end?

    Too much risk for that payment?

    6’3″ 205, 22yo, a respectable 24 points in 64 games this year with 21:00 average TOI/gm.

    Drawback: His shot is probably the weakest part of his game, which is what we are really missing from the right side.

  101. square_wheels says:

    G Money,

    I’m looking forward to my group of friends in private equity or those of us in big oil that stop by her office at Lazy Loaf to talk through GHG policy. Oh well, this ends my political musings on the boards.

    Wonder when the 25+ euro defencmen signing is gonna appear, we’ve got to find another gem hidden over there. Tampa’s scouting is something to admire.

  102. Woodguy says:

    supernova: As per our Twitter Discussion I am obviously very happy Green is a key piece in the amateur draft room.

    We do know MacT likes Green as he is the one who convinced him to move from Oil Kings to Oilers.

    Seemingly Bob Nicholson also likes him as the time frame of Green being put on top of Scouting was in tune with the forensic Audit.

    Greens history in the WHL is about value.

    Size isn’t a major item, he has a history of smaller players and larger players. He found value in the Bantam Draft early with picks like Lazar & Reinhart, he also found value late or undrafted with players like Lupul or Kris Russel.

    The main common theme to Greens history is he loves “hockey sense” or “hockey IQ” in a sense he just is good at finding hockey players.

    If Chia also listens to Green I have full faith it will be different than past draft themes.

    2014 theme was draft players we don’t have to sign for awhile
    2013 draft size

    And so on

    The best scout can only do his work really well if the GM allows it.

    My only 2 hesitations on Chia are
    1) cap management
    2) draft history

    The first could be explained by winning a cup and as we know cup winning players all get paid.

    The second item is more concerning to me but maybe he has learned or maybe it was Cam Neely barking in his ear about ” Boston bruin” players. Like Tyler Seguin was not

    Thanks for chiming in SN.

    Your perspective and information is appreciated.

    Post more.

  103. Barcs says:

    Timashyov (s?) with the goal to even things up in Que-Osh.

    The build of these two teams is very interesting.

    Quebec has small, speedy and very skilled players in Tchatchev, Roy, Duclair, Timashyov, etc.

    Oshawa has a much bigger team, notables for them being Dal Colle, McCarron, and the Flames’ (spits) Hunter Smith.

  104. Barcs says:

    Timashyov with another to take the lead for Quebec!

    He is a player who’s career I am going to be very interested to follow.

    Insane numbers, not much of a defensively game (but who in junior does).

    Seems like a real boom/bust player.

  105. VanOil says:

    spoiler:
    I know trading for Adam Larsson has been a common theme around these parts for a couple of years–a proposal that I myself have pushed from time to time–but the Devils have a couple of decent RHD coming through their system… and virtually no 1st round draft picks in the past while.

    They’ve accepted their rebuild and might really like another 1st rounder to jumpstart the effort.

    So, question…

    Is the 16th overall too much to pay for Larsson (a 4th OV in 2011)?

    Is this a kid on the cusp who is ready to explode?

    Will he never fully bring the O, but will become world class in his own end?

    Too much risk for that payment?

    6’3″ 205, 22yo, a respectable 24 points in 64 games this year with 21:00 average TOI/gm.

    Drawback: His shot is probably the weakest part of his game, which is what we are really missing from the right side.

    On board 100%

    Klefbom-Larsson would be a great pairing for a decade. Fix the Right Handed Bomb from the power play problem with another Swede Patrik Hersley. The new coach seemed to have this crazy idea about putting Eberle on the PP point at the Worlds so it might not be necessary.

    Larsson is a lot more expensive this summer than last summer. My prediction is by next summer he would be unobtainable. He would be a perfect fit for the Oilers McDavid era.

  106. square_wheels says:

    spoiler,

    Anything past the 1st overall is reasonable for Larson, he’s had all the warts burned off already. I think finding offence in a top 4 dman isn’t as difficult as finding one that is mobile, positionally sound, able to break cycles and exit the zone with sharp passes.

    Our offence should be built off the rush, a tape to tape pass is worth 10x a PP bomb. Let’s face it, Schultz (or Green & Franzon) don’t add enough beyond PP that I could get too excited about adding them. Sekera or Martin, even Klef can eat those PP minutes.

  107. rickithebear says:

    HBomb:
    From Hockey DB, draft year numbers

    Bittner: 71p in 66g (1.08ppg), 6’4″ 204lbs, November 1996 birthday

    Crouse: 51 in 59g (0.91ppg), 6’4″ 215lbs, June 1997 birthday

    Both are LH left wingers.

    The 3 big 22 evg NHLE wingers: crouse; bittner; senyshyn
    The first and last got it driving themselves.
    The middle one with Petan and Bjorkstrand.

  108. spoiler says:

    I’m not sure NJ would do it. Depends on their strategy. They’re a pretty loyal organization.

    I mean a 16th for Larsson, really they’re just swapping age groups. Larsson will be UFA age when their rebuild comes to fruition, but is that necessarily a bad thing if he’s signed and on your top pairing?

    A 16th overall would be tempting especially when that pick rolls around. I think the D will be heavily picked over and there will be some primo Fs on the board… Merkley, Zacha, Bittner, Harkins, Konecny, Svechnikov, Connor… somebody out of this group is going to be there.

    I don’t think there’s any way Merkley goes in the top 10, the second half of which will see a lot of D picked. I don’t see Werenski getting past COL. A lot of D will be off the board by the time the Oil pick. It will be a great spot for a forward. Not sure if that’s what the Oilers want though.

  109. rickithebear says:

    Barcs:
    Timashyov (s?) with the goal to even things up in Que-Osh.

    The build of these two teams is very interesting.

    Quebec has small, speedy and very skilled players in Tchatchev, Roy, Duclair, Timashyov, etc.

    Oshawa has a much bigger team, notables for them being Dal Colle, McCarron, and the Flames’ (spits) Hunter Smith.

    You know h. Smiths nhle suggests 9 evg 11eva

    You know 6’5″ 232lb yakimov scored like god scoring russians.

    If you ran an all russian line
    Which would you want.
    Slepyshev-Yakimov-Tkachev
    Slepyshev-Yakimov-Yakupov

  110. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    spoiler,

    In my opinion, the window on a Larsson trade has closed. Last summer it could have happened, or even in the fall. Post-DeBoer, it would not. I don’t know if you’ve looked closely at the transformation in Larsson’s games after DeBoer was axed. Top pairing RHD already and about to go supernova. The 16th overall wouldn’t even be close to fair value for Jersey.

  111. maxwell_mischief says:

    Anyone else think Arizona might grab the elite offensive guy, Marner, at 3? He’d probably look good on a line with Coyote prospects Max Domi and Christian Dvorak

  112. Rip Fan Winkle "OilOnslaught" says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”:
    spoiler,

    In my opinion, the window on a Larsson trade has closed. Last summer it could have happened, or even in the fall. Post-DeBoer, it would not. I don’t know if you’ve looked closely at the transformation in Larsson’s games after DeBoer was axed. Top pairing RHD already and about to go supernova. The 16th overall wouldn’t even be close to fair value for Jersey.

    Edit: they need offense, how about JS and Yak? 16th and Yak and something else back?

  113. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    Rip Fan Winkle “OilOnslaught”: 16th and JS or maybe Musil or maybe both?

    I doesn’t fit New Jersey’s needs at all. Why would they trade Larsson for a downgrade at RHD who is expensive and needs a new contract and a mid-first after they’ve spent 4 years developing Larsson into a top pairing D? They also have Severson, Merrill, Greene, Gelinas (he may move) on their blue line but outside of Henrique their forwards are ancient.

    Jersey needs scoring. Could see a package around Yakupov interesting them but Yak doesn’t have the same value at the moment because D is valued over W. Maybe last summer it would have worked.

    I just don’t see a fit for a trade here unless something potentially painful up front goes the other way (Draisaitl or Yakupov). Have to consider that we are dealing with Shero/Lou and they aren’t stupid.

    Edit- just saw your edit after I replied. 16th + Yak for Larsson + something is much closer to fitting their needs. I think Jersey would have to throw back a decent + because I think 16th and Yak definitely tips the scales in their favour.

  114. Rip Fan Winkle "OilOnslaught" says:

    Who are the current young RD out there that aren’t being loved? There has to be someone, always is. The trick is spotting them and being ready when the chance comes by cap or whatever.

  115. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    Rip Fan Winkle “OilOnslaught”:
    Who are the current young RD out there that aren’t being loved? There has to be someone, always is. The trick is spotting them and being ready when the chance comes by cap or whatever.

    I’d target Torey Krug to replace/upgrade on JS in his PP and puck-moving role. Bruins are up against the cap and need to sign Hamilton to a long-term contract.

  116. rickithebear says:

    maxwell_mischief:
    Anyone else think Arizona might grab the elite offensive guy, Marner, at 3? He’d probably look good on a line with Coyote prospects Max Domi and Christian Dvorak

    If you watch Domi with the other two he kills the play.

  117. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    rickithebear: If you watch Domi with the other two he kills the play.

    I think he is one of the most overrated prospects out there thanks to that World Junior small sample size performance in Toronto/Montreal and daddy.

  118. Jaxon says:

    What was up with Craig Button’s ranking of Pavel Zacha on his last Mock? He had him at 30! In other lists he’s ranked between 8 & 14.

    I’d be interested in trading to move up to 10th (Colorado) or 11th (Florida) if I thought we had a chance at one of RW/LW Mikko Rantanen, RD Zack Werenski, LW Lawson Crouse or C/LW Pavel Zacha.

    If not, I think I’d go a bit off board and pick RW Zachary Senyshyn at #16, and RD Nicholas Meloche at #33, and maybe G MacKenzie Blackwood at #57. Then RW Christian Fischer at #79, RD Thomas Schemitsch at #86, RD Austin Strand at #117, RW Nikolai Chebykin at #124, G Connor Ingram at #154, and G Michael Robinson at #184.

    Other players I’d be looking out for: RW Keegan Kolesar, C/RW Nicolas Roy, Lw Yakov Trenin, RW Denis Guryanov (if they were confident he would come over to NA, then I’d pick him quite high, he could be great on McDavid’s or Draisaitl’s wing).

    MacKenzie at #33 might be too high. Just because goalies. I think going after a Cam Talbot makes more sense at this stage. I think after Edmonton gets some success (ie. not drafting in the top half of the first round), then they can look at picking goalies a bit higher with less pressure on high picks and build from the back middle forward out G, D, C, W.

  119. Rip Fan Winkle "OilOnslaught" says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”:
    Rip Fan Winkle “OilOnslaught”,

    Others: Ellis? Braun?

    Braun is a bit old. He and Vlasic are signed longer and good value for them and they are an internal budget team I think. Burns is the most expensive and a year from UFA ………..

    But from what I remember reading over time he’s a chaotic D and a dominant winger.

    As for Schultz being made RW, he has no physical presence. It wouldn’t be the same thing.

  120. Jaxon says:

    godot10,

    Franson’s traditional and fancy stats (see G Money’s quote from Willis) don’t back up what your claiming. He had the 18th most hits for D last season, 38th most blocked shots, 8th most takeaways, 44th most shots, 55th most goals, 15th most PP goals, 19th most PP Pts, 40th most ES As and 56th most ES Pts. Anything under 60 means he was a top pair in that category and anything under 30 means he was a #1 D in that category. His takeaway stat and PP goals is in elite territory. All that with terrible Zone starts and tough competition while making his teammates better. Plus he is 6’5″ and only 28. I would love to see Klefbom & Franson or Nurse and Franson as a pair someday or maybe Sekara and Franson next season. Definitely no Green please, he was 5th on the Capitals.

  121. Rondo says:

    1. McDavid

    16. Jeremy Roy/ Oliver Kylington

    33. Zachary Senyshyn

    57. Ilya Samsonov

    The rest D-men

  122. Wolfpack says:

    I really like the idea of identifying every other teams’ strengths and weaknesses and being willing to move some big names to benefit both teams. New Jersey is a great example, they are deep in defensive prospects but need a ton of help up front. I love the idea of making a strong pitch for Larsson. A package like Yak + 16OV for Larsson and a forward prospect might be something that NJ would look at. Sure, Larsson might just now be finding his way but you could say the same thing about Yak. And recent 1OV picks always have some cache. NJ might ask for Draisaitl instead and I would think harder but I still might do it. NJ needs picks and young forwards, we need quality d-men. Larsson is exactly the type I hope we are targeting.

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