IN THE DAYS AFTER THE RAPTURE

As wild as things have been since April 18 and the pure rush of the lottery win, this next six weeks promise to be absolutely insane. Let’s begin with a preview of coming attractions:

  • May 31: NHL Draft Combine
  • 48 hours after Stanley Cup Final (or June 15, whichever later): Deadline for first club-elected salary arbitration
  • June 25: Window for teams to meet with UFA’s opens
  • June 26 & 27 NHL draft
  • June 30: Deadline for buyouts
  • June 30: Deadline for qualifying offers to RFA’s
  • July 1: Free Agency begins
  • July 5: Deadline for player-elected salary arbitration
  • July 6: Deadline for final club-elected salary arbitration

That’s a busy and fascinating time for hockey fans in a normal season, but for the Oilers this summer? Hang on to your hat! Consider some of the possible outcomes.

NHL DRAFT COMBINE

The Oilers know who they’re taking No. 1 overall but this gives them a chance to touch base with the rest of their list and move players up and down based on medical issues great and small. The interview process may or may not have a major benefit but I’ve yet to read a hockey exec call the combine a waste of time. We’ll get a chance to see video too, although the days of interviewing Taylor Hall in the hallway during and after his chat with the Oilers appear gone forever (Oil Change should be brought back, but how? Oil Changement?).

CLUB-ELECTED SALARY ARBITRATION

This might be the last chance Texaco for Justin Schultz as an Oilers player. If Edmonton can get him into a contract more reflective of his talent and the risk involved, then maybe there’s a future for him. As it is, the chaos and the wobble aren’t worth close to his anticipated salary and everyone outside Craig MacTavish has to know it.

UFA WINDOW OPENS

This should give us our first major look at Peter Chiarelli as GM. If he’s calling Antti Niemi and Mike Green, we can expect he’ll be keeping all the gifted kids while buying out Nikitin/walking from Schultz. If we don’t hear those names, then it’s more likely Edmonton is interested in Jimmy Howard or Corey Crawford, Jared Spurgeon or Brent Seabrook.

JUNE 26: NHL DRAFT

It’s possible the Oilers could walk out of this year’s draft with Connor McDavid, Jeremy Roy, Zach Senyshyn, Noah Juulsen, Tyler Soy, Kyle Capobianco. That would represent an amazing haul for one draft and could set the organization up for a monster decade the likes we haven’t seen in, well, you know. I do think Edmonton will move the No. 33 overall selection and wouldn’t be surprised if it happened in the moments leading up to the selection.

DEADLINE FOR BUYOUTS

If Edmonton plans on fixing only one thing, it’ll be goaltending and they won’t need to buy anyone out. If they want to go get a veteran goalie and a No. 1 defenseman, then someone has to go and my choice is the Russian. It’s important to remember that Edmonton has three interesting and fairly inexpensive defensive options—Oscar Klefbom, Martin Marincin and Darnell Nurse—so it’s at least possible to argue they could make do with those three and Mark Fayne, Brent Seabrook, Justin Schultz and Andrew Ference. They need the extra cash a Nikitin buyout brings.

DEADLINE FOR QUALIFYING RFA’S

This will be fun because there are some bubble guys. My guess is Chiarelli qualifies Martin Marincin, Andrew Miller, Brad Hunt, Brandon Davidson. I think he walks Matt Fraser, Tyler Pitlick, Keith Aulie, Kellen Lain, Curtis Hamilton, Tyler Bunz. Frans Tuohimaa is aaaaalllready gone.

FREE AGENCY

I think we’re going to see two major names coming in. One will be a goalie, suspect Chiarelli will go with an established veteran. That means Antti Niemi, Craig Anderson, Corey Crawford, Jimmy Howard in goal and (if they trade) assets going out for a well paid goaler. I also think we’ll see a defender added, and again it’ll likely be a grizzled veteran like Mike Green, Paul Martin, Francois Beauchemin, Fedor Tyutin, Dennis Seidenberg.

CONCLUSION

I know we’d all like Peter Chiarelli to keep the draft picks AND sign the players we see as being the best, but the chances of Edmonton getting everything done in one summer is not high and we’re not certain how Chiarelli uses innovative evaluations and what he likes (beyond his own track record).

Faced with a large roster problem, Chiarelli preferred veteran options all down the line in Boston. In the last five years, with a contender, he overpaid for Chris Kelly, Rich Peverley, Tomas Kaberle, Joe Corvo, Brian Rolston, Loui Eriksson, Andrej Meszaros, Brett Connolly. While it’s true he was looking to remain a Stanley Cup contender, it’s also true he liked veterans long before the Bruins were winning.

I believe he’ll keep the golden kids but we’re going to see picks and lesser prospects sent away this summer. The Oilers will be better in goal, on defense and more veteran up front in that middle area, in that 3line slot. Candidates to satisfy the incoming assets include Martin Marincin (poor bugger), the pick at No. 33 and cap room.

It’s been a wild five weeks, and the next six may be just as crazy. The summer of Connor is non-stop action. As they used to say in the old monster-truck radio commercials, they’ll sell you the whole seat but you’ll only need the edge.

(My thanks to Brad McLeod, aka Broiler, for the story idea).

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101 Responses to "IN THE DAYS AFTER THE RAPTURE"

  1. RexLibris says:

    I’ve yet to read a hockey exec call the combine a waste of time.

    Did Cliff Fletcher never get around to waxing rhythmic about the combine?

    I think he walks Matt Fraser, Tyler Pitlick, Keith Aulie, Kellen Lain, Curtis Hamilton, Tyler Bunz.

    None of those players would represent a significant loss by way of current impact on the roster. As invested assets, yes, but we’ve reached a point where the page is turned on the 2010 draft.

  2. Rondo says:

    I believe the interview and the disciplines at combine will be important to the Oilers regarding Oliver Kylington.

  3. jdrevenge1 says:

    “They’ll sell you the whole seat, you’ll only need the edge”. This – is genius. Haha.

    Is anyone else a bit concerned with Yak’s ability to keep up with the forward group? Seems to me in watching him pretty closely last year, that he has a ridiculous first few steps but has trouble keeping up past that. In terms of straightaway speed.

    Mcdavid, RNH are both ridiculous skaters.

  4. raventalon40 says:

    jdrevenge1:
    “They’ll sell you the whole seat, you’ll only need the edge”. This – is genius. Haha.

    Is anyone else a bit concerned with Yak’s ability to keep up with the forward group? Seems to me in watching him pretty closely last year, that he has a ridiculous first few steps but has trouble keeping up past that. In terms of straightaway speed.

    Mcdavid, RNH are both ridiculous skaters.

    There’s always value in the third man in. He’s the one who gets the one-timers and rebounds. The first two guys in just gotta create enough havoc!

  5. speeds says:

    The time the Oilers have after they can talk to UFA’s, but before the draft, could well be critical as it relates to how things play out.

    If they hear that one UFA D they like will sign with them, or have a good feeling that they will, it may well put them in a position where they can retain all their picks.

    If they hear that a couple will, it might mean they look at a Schultz trade/no QO, or that they consider a Nikitin or Purcell trade/buyout to open cap room.

  6. Rondo says:

    Leon Draisaitl looking good so far 1A

  7. Lowetide says:

    speeds:
    The time the Oilers have after they can talk to UFA’s, but before the draft, could well be critical as it relates to how things play out.

    If they hear that one UFA D they like will sign with them, or have a good feeling that they will, it may well put them in a position where they can retain all their picks.

    If they hear that a couple will, it might mean they look at a Schultz trade/no QO, or that they consider a Nikitin or Purcell trade/buyout to open cap room.

    Yes. They could also trade a pick for an exclusive negotiation window but hopefully they’ll aim higher than last year.

  8. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: Yes. They could also trade a pick for an exclusive negotiation window but hopefully they’ll aim higher than last year.

    Aim higher than last year? Which direction? Towards their ankle or their toes?

  9. Lowetide says:

    RexLibris: Aim higher than last year? Which direction? Towards their ankle or their toes?

    Haha. Damn. Made me giggle.

  10. speeds says:

    Lowetide: Yes. They could also trade a pick for an exclusive negotiation window but hopefully they’ll aim higher than last year.

    I don’t know that I agree with that strategy most of the time, but it is an option.

  11. Shafty19 says:

    “I think we’re going to see two major names coming in. One will be a goalie, suspect Chiarelli will go with an established veteran. That means Antti Niemi, Craig Anderson, Corey Crawford, Jimmy Howard in goal and (if they trade) assets going out for a well paid goaler.

    I also think we’ll see a defender added, and again it’ll likely be a grizzled veteran like Mike Green, Paul Martin, Francois Beauchemin, Fedor Tyutin, Dennis Seidenberg.”

    Does this scare anybody else? I struggle to see how UFAs with decent-to-good track records command any less than ‘substantial’ salary with ‘real’ term (>3 years); and if that’s the case, I worry about the cap implications down the line, particularly with players on the wrong side of 30.

    I think Mirtle’s on the mark with his recent piece on how teams shouldn’t overpay for goaltenders’ past performances.

    I get that Chiarelli’s here on his trusty steed to save the day. And while I don’t want to use the word “patience,” hopefully he takes that “measured approach” he was talking about on Day 1 and doesn’t overcommit the future.

  12. Bad Seed says:

    speeds,

    I think that worked great for us last year!

  13. godot10 says:

    Lowetide: Yes. They could also trade a pick for an exclusive negotiation window but hopefully they’ll aim higher than last year.

    Pre-McDavid-McLellan-Chiarelli, one would have to do that. Post, it would be silly to do that. You can talk to the guys for five days before July 1.

    If you are a D who wants to play in Edmonton, you aren’t going to sign anywhere before talking to the Oilers in the window.

  14. godot10 says:

    One screws up Laleggia’s and Osterle’s development if you bring Hunt back. Hunt isn’t an NHL defensemen. He is an AHL Keith Yandle.

    He can have a career as the Crash Davis of AHL D (or go play in Europe).

  15. GCW_69 says:

    I hope they don’t qualify Hunt. They should offer him an AHL only deal and if he won’t take it, find themselves another Brian Helmer to mentor the young defence in Bakersfield.

  16. GCW_69 says:

    I am okay with Mike Green coming in if the cap hit doesn’t exceed $5M and Schultz is heading out, but i would prefer Franson. Green could do amazing things with Schultz’s zone starts and line mates.

    Franson > Green > Schultz.

    Only room on this defence for one of them.

  17. PDL says:

    Rondo,

    That segment where they talk about Drai’s stick in comparison to other players was actually well done.

  18. Rondo says:

    PDL,

    Yes, it was interesting.

  19. square_wheels says:

    GCW_69,

    As far as UFA D, I’d take Martin over both if he’d sign a 2yr, Franson and Green need far too much shelter if we’re paying the 5+. There’s a reason both got buried by strong top 4’s, it’s because they are not top 4.

    I say no to all 3 and see if Staal and Spurgeon can be had. Sekera’s a beauty but any of the other 2 Czech’s might be ok.

    The fact we’re not talking about only finding Petry a competent LHD is fucking bullshit.
    BULLSHIT

  20. square_wheels says:

    Draisatl !! Not just a passer!!

  21. Aitch says:

    There are so many moving parts this summer, especially on the blueline. If all Chiarelli did was draft McDavid, I suspect McL can put together a decent enough looking line-up. And in net, he can add a #1 without hesitation. But between those signed already and the RFAs on defense, there is no wiggle room. A d-man in is a d-man out. Chia has his work cut out for him improving it, in the short term.

  22. Cahoon says:

    I’m seeing that Michael Joly good.

  23. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: Haha. Damn. Made me giggle.

    Thanks. It was that or make a comment about tossing someone out that “exclusive trading window”.

  24. RexLibris says:

    PDL:
    Rondo,

    That segment where they talk about Drai’s stick in comparison to other players was actually well done.

    What was the comment?

  25. Магия 10 says:

    No way PC is moving Yak before the deadline. That’s not bold. Project forwards with that much upside trade for like projects.

  26. Cahoon says:

    RexLibris,

    It was about how big Draisatls blade is and how good of hands you have to have to make a blade like that work.

  27. RexLibris says:

    Reviewing the game sheet, looks like the Bowey, Merkley, Draisaitl Show tonight.

  28. Melman says:

    That Schultz contract really is obscene. It will be an interesting tell on the player as to whether he takes the:

    1) “Jeez I realize I’ve been overpaid a ton and I really need to improve, so a fair 2 year bridge deal that’s good for the club and keeps me with this core is where I want to be”; or

    2) “You guys played me max minutes and I deserve every penny I can squeeze out of you. Whoa, no time for the gym, surf’s up Dude”.

  29. rickithebear says:

    PC: trades Hall for Perron and Beau Bennett

    He likes trading top of the 2010 draft forwards for declining Goal scorers and mid transition forwards.

  30. Younger Oil says:

    I’m really warming to the thought of Merkeley at #16, he’s rated a bit lower than that, but he had a hell of a playoffs and is showing well in the Memorial Cup, which may cause him to rise.

    He’s from Calgary though so I wouldn’t be surprised if the Flames take him.

    Either way, there is going to be a hell of a player available at #16. I will be very, very disappointed if they trade that pick (unless it is a huge overpay from the other team).

    I’m feeling that way about #33 as well, especially because there are so many quality RHD in that range. Think about it, the player taken there is likely going to be a Barbashev level talent AT WORST, and we all know how much it stung when STL selected him.

    I hate the idea of trading picks when it is the best draft in a decade, and we didn’t have 2nd and 3rd round picks last year, and we will have to give up a 2nd and a 3rd in the future for our management signings.

    Our prospect depth isn’t great just yet, it’s weak on wingers and RHD, but this draft can change all of that, and set us up for years to come.

  31. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Merkley ranked 17, 18, 19, 15, 13, 21, 13, 17, 9, 17 avg=16 Sort of reminds me of a faster, smaller Perron.

    http://www.mynhldraft.com/2015-draft/prospect-rankings/

    my what a draft. Will be hard to mess up both picks in the first round with the talent available.

    MCDAVID!!!! WOOOOOO!!!

  32. match eddy says:

    Damn that’s some sweet mitts by Drai

  33. Rip Fan Winkle "OilOnslaught" says:

    I hope they look to D with the 2 picks after McD. Defense are too hard to get and they are loaded at center. It would be a shame to end up like the Pens with a weak back end

  34. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Yet ANOTHER shorty from Leon. Think he had 4 in the WHL playoffs.

    Nice individual effort, big body protection cut to the net. Another goal you see where you question where this slow skating rumour came up. Skates like Thornton where he glides really fast, not slow in the slightest (evidence of winning oilers fastest skater).

  35. Магия 10 says:

    7-3. Another goal by the “Squirmin’ German” (kelowna radio handle)

  36. flyfish1168 says:

    JMHO. We will have four 1st overall picks in the line up next season. These players will be costly. With a CAP world it is important to maintain an orderly level of cost. I would rather develop our players through the draft and have many season of playoff hockey and being a great contender than having a short run and then we have to dismantle the team and start all over again in 5-7 years due o CAP issues. We don’t need to overpay for someone elses mistake or bribe a UFA to come here if we are a winning franchise.

    If I have to make one big criticism about Chia it is his handling of the CAP in Beantown and we are his DO OVER. Boston is in trouble because Chia didn’t control the CAP properly.

    So my preference is to draft well and substitute accordingly when we are close and always keep an eye on the CAP.

  37. square_wheels says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    Not a player in this game that can slow him down when he takes 5 strides, he can keep up with 97. A north/south big man that is also an elite cycle/low slot setup man, this is going to be a wild camp.

    Hard to see how an offer for a Dman in RFA doesn’t have teams salivating for Drai but I’d part with Yak long before the German.

  38. Магия 10 says:

    All the other games this tourney were 1 goal margins. Tonight’s score could be worth a bye if 3 teams ends up with 1 win.

  39. wheatnoil says:

    https://twitter.com/kluedeke29/status/603023101387886595

    Remember when Draisaitl was the forward prospect we were looking forward to?

    Right… he’s still awesome.

  40. Магия 10 says:

    square_wheels: I’d part with Yak long before the German

    if you move either this calendar year it’s like jumping from 500 ft or 1000 ft without a parachute. the choice will depend on how long you want the ride to last.

  41. square_wheels says:

    flyfish1168,

    Trouble with long playoff runs is it screws up actual value, see Bickel, Lucic, Horcoff, Sharp and on it goes.

    As we were ecstatic with our cup run we made some silly bets and so has every other GM that put together a cup team. It’s a cycle that Chia is going to hard pressed to end, haven’t seen anyone do it.

  42. LadiesloveSmid says:

    square_wheels:
    LadiesloveSmid,

    Not a player in this game that can slow him down when he takes 5 strides, he can keep up with 97. A north/south big man that is also an elite cycle/low slot setup man, this is going to be a wild camp.

    Hard to see how an offer for a Dman in RFA doesn’t have teams salivating for Drai but I’d part with Yak long before the German.

    He really is making it look easy.

    Sort of a nice problem to have this camp. McDavid, Nurse, Draisaitl all potentially ready for NHL spots. If they all do, I think MacT’s comments about it being a developmental year won’t be too ludicrous. Still young and D-G is weak weak but LOADS of potential. Draisaitl could be Thornton, McDavid could be Crosby, and RNH could be Dastyuk.

  43. square_wheels says:

    Магия 10,

    Yes, both need to be evaluated within a balanced lineup, I’d say 2 years is plenty.

    But the D is driving this team forward with even average tending, can’t see us getting there without a body moving.

  44. Магия 10 says:

    PC was pretty clear he needs to see these guys on his watch against WC teams before making what last GM would have called a bold move.

  45. Магия 10 says:

    LadiesloveSmid: Draisaitl could be Thornton, McDavid could be Crosby, and RNH could be Dastyuk

    But tell me they have an upside.

  46. square_wheels says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    Somehow my hope,is we only sign one UFA D and use the draft pics and some prospects to help a cap crunched team.

    Sekera and Spurgeon are my choices, but I’d be happy with Staal and Petry.

    Drai is a sublime talent when he carries the puck but seeing him play with a smart, shift winger that can pass……maybe him a Yak form the soft minutes destroyers (SMD) line.

  47. flyfish1168 says:

    square_wheels:
    flyfish1168,

    Trouble with long playoff runs is it screws up actual value, see Bickel, Lucic, Horcoff, Sharp and on it goes.

    As we were ecstatic with our cup run we made some silly bets and so has every other GM that put together a cup team. It’s a cycle that Chia is going to hard pressed to end, haven’t seen anyone do it.

    Chicago started their playoff run in spring of 2009. So only 6th season. As i have mentioned 5-7 and you are dismantling. Also remember Tallon did a major misstep in 2009 with using slow mail vs faxing contracts to RFA and had to over pay to keep some of the players and trade a few others. So history of over payment was NOT long run but a poor decision on how to get the contracts to the players prior to July 1st. deadline of submitting a contract offer.

  48. square_wheels says:

    Магия 10,

    It was my initial comment about Drai that set DSF off about comparables…..

    Careful or the stick of dynamite known as comparing Drai to Thornton is all yours to wrestle the Handsome Welldressed Coyote 🙂

    Love you DSF, no homo

  49. square_wheels says:

    flyfish1168,

    Explain LA then. Lombardi has an awesome pipeline but some of those contracts are garbage. Fuck LA though, they’ll always get the gift ufa due to location.

  50. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Магия 10: But tell me they have an upside.

    floor for Draisaitl is Lemieux

    richard lemieux of course http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=3107

  51. square_wheels says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    I’d be happy with Claude.

  52. Klima's_Bucket says:

    square_wheels,

    I’m partial to Jocelyn myself…

  53. raventalon40 says:

    Imagine, if you will, for a second, that McDavid is our Crosby… and Draisaitl is our Malkin… RNH is our Sakic… it makes it hard to temper expectations.

    EDIT: I just realized this is literally a duplicate of some of the comments above

  54. stush18 says:

    GCW_69:
    I am okay with Mike Green coming in if the cap hit doesn’t exceed $5M and Schultz is heading out, but i would prefer Franson.Green could do amazing things with Schultz’s zone starts and line mates.

    Franson > Green > Schultz.

    Only room on this defence for one of them.

    But at as far as price goes, itll be green>franson>schultz

    Likely around 6 for green, 5 for franson, and 3.75 for schultz.

    At thise price points and age, who do you aquire?

    I domt think franskn is better than green either by the way.

  55. raventalon40 says:

    Franson could be a useful special teams addition though, to say nothing of his even strength play and zone starts. Wasn’t he a PP guy in Toronto? And always among the league leaders in hits?

  56. square_wheels says:

    raventalon40,

    Franson hits, they track receiving hits ?

  57. flyfish1168 says:

    square_wheels:
    flyfish1168,

    Explain LA then. Lombardi has an awesome pipeline but some of those contracts are garbage. Fuck LA though, they’ll always get the gift ufa due to location.

    Voynov & Richards.

  58. Stelio Kontos (Formerly Zangetsu-Formerly Thinker) says:

    Missed the russian blog, but I think it would be very advantageous to target Russia. It has basically become the final frontier of hockey prospects. I was thinking recently about how Yak probably wouldn’t have gone 1OV if he was playing in Neftamehdfskah. Somehow the oil need to send a bridge out there. If I was Katz, I would purchase some sort of european team, maybe even KHL, to bridge the gap for foreign players. Not to mention some more eyes on those leagues would definitely help find some gems. It is harder to project players overseas due to limited offence. If I was GM, my later round picks would mostly be european. As opposed to “projectable” CHL or BCHLers.

    In other news, what happened to Virtanen. I looked him up after seeing the reports on Meier. Buddies offence fell off a cliff.

  59. raventalon40 says:

    Stelio Kontos (Formerly Zangetsu-Formerly Thinker):
    Missed the russian blog, but I think it would be very advantageous to target Russia. It has basically become the final frontier of hockey prospects. I was thinking recently about how Yak probably wouldn’t have gone 1OV if he was playing in Neftamehdfskah. Somehow the oil need to send a bridge out there. If I was Katz, I would purchase some sort of european team, maybe even KHL, to bridge the gap for foreign players. Not to mention some more eyes on those leagues would definitely help find some gems. It is harder to project players overseas due to limited offence.If I was GM, my later round picks would mostly be european. As opposed to “projectable” CHL or BCHLers.

    In other news, what happened to Virtanen. I looked him up after seeing the reports on Meier. Buddies offence fell off a cliff.

    Yeah, Frank Musil can be president and GM, and we can send all the outcast Oilers on Katz’s payroll there as some sort of hockey Siberia.

  60. frjohnk says:

    stush18: But at as far as price goes, itll be green>franson>schultz

    Likely around 6 for green, 5 for franson, and 3.75 for schultz.

    At thise price points and age, who do you aquire?

    I domt think franskn is better than green either by the way.

    I pick Schultz. Younger, cheaper and I think there is room for improvement.

    War on ice has a new tab that shows “individual high danger scoring chances”. Looking at 5 on 5 data and it shows that Schultz was tied for 21st ( with OEL) in the league for D men with 37 IHDSC. 1 more than Green who had 36. Franson had 16. Karlsson led the league with 61. Klefbom was tied with Petry with 24 IHDSC, but Klefbom did it in 18 fewer games.

    Yeah, Shultz has chaos in his game, is overpaid, is not strong the puck, does not have a good slapper, needs to get stronger….I could go on. But I also believe some of this can be corrected to the point where is warts are not so bad. But this is on the organization and him to identify these weaknesses and remedy. The organization has to also put him in an area to succeed.

    From the blue line in, he is one of the best in the league at reading the play and pinching in for a good scoring chance. I felt he was a bit snake bitten and should have had more points than he did. This coming season, the forward core will be better, we will have a top notch coach who involves his D men alot in the Ozone. Burns, Vlasic and Boyle are in the top 20 for IHDSC in the last 3 years. If Schultz has committed himself to getting stronger and working on his shot, I think offensively he could have a banner year. If this coming year is the same, then flush him.

  61. square_wheels says:

    Dustin Brown and Gaborik for 7 and 6 more years, barf. Let alone Quick, who is solid, but is signed until his groin is completely replaced in 2023. Yes 2023 !!

  62. G Money says:

    wheatnoil,

    Pffft. What the hell does Luedeke know? I have it on unassailable authority that Draisaitl is Joe Colborne mk 2.

    Think if we sent Drai and the 16th to Calgary, we could pry Colborne out of there?

  63. square_wheels says:

    Ladies and gentleman Jonathan Toews.

  64. Pouzar says:

    square_wheels:
    Ladies and gentleman Jonathan Toews.

    He absolutely knew the goalie wasn’t ready for that. Just wow.

  65. square_wheels says:

    Pouzar,

    Good Gord is he a player, wow.

  66. Pouzar says:

    square_wheels:
    Pouzar,

    Good Gord is he a player, wow.

    I was watching that and before the puck was off his stick I was like “you sneaky bastage”.

  67. square_wheels says:

    Pouzar,

    Now PJ Stock claims a peewee goalie could stop that. Forgetting to mute this Rogers bullshit ruined the moment for me.

  68. flyfish1168 says:

    square_wheels:
    Dustin Brown and Gaborik for 7 and 6 more years, barf. Let alone Quick, who is solid, but is signed until his groin is completely replaced in 2023. Yes 2023 !!

    square_wheels:
    Ladies and gentleman Jonathan Toews.

    Lombardi has become irresponsible and irrational how he is handing out contracts.

    Toews is my favorite player

  69. wheatnoil says:

    G Money:
    wheatnoil,

    Pffft.What the hell does Luedeke know?I have it on unassailable authority that Draisaitl is Joe Colborne mk 2.

    Think if we sent Drai and the 16th to Calgary, we could pry Colborne out of there?

    Throw in Marincin. 3 for 1.

  70. flyfish1168 says:

    frjohnk,

    justin maybe best at readying the plays and pinching in but he sure is poor at finishing. I wonder, are you able to show his chances against TOI along with the other top d-men?

  71. square_wheels says:

    Sophia is ok but how did they not keep Andi, she was great. Thanks the good Gords they kept Friedman though.

  72. Pouzar says:

    square_wheels:
    Pouzar,

    Now PJ Stock claims a peewee goalie could stop that. Forgetting to mute this Rogers bullshit ruined the moment for me.

    Andersen was expecting the puck to go to Hossa behind the net there. Just a great instinctive play by Captain Serious.

  73. wheatnoil says:

    So… playoff hockey is fun.

    One day, when it’s RNH working some magic in the Western Conference Finals, we can all be concerned about how LT is going to fit in a RE series, a draft preview, and a pre-draft summer top 20 all in the 2 weeks between the Finals and the draft.

  74. Pouzar says:

    go buy him a drink young Andersen.

  75. square_wheels says:

    Beleski is getting the Bickell contract this year……someone is gonna overpay.

  76. stush18 says:

    frjohnk: I pick Schultz.Younger, cheaper and I think there is room for improvement.

    War on ice has a new tab that shows “individual high danger scoring chances”.Looking at 5 on 5 data and it shows that Schultz was tied for 21st ( with OEL) in the league for D men with 37 IHDSC.1 more than Green who had 36.Franson had 16.Karlsson led the league with 61. Klefbom was tied with Petry with 24 IHDSC, but Klefbom did it in 18 fewer games.

    Yeah, Shultz has chaos in his game, is overpaid, is not strong the puck, does not have a good slapper, needs to get stronger….I could go on.But I also believe some of this can be corrected to the point where is warts are not so bad.But this is on the organization and him to identify these weaknesses and remedy.The organization has to also put him in an area to succeed.

    From the blue line in, he is one of the best in the league at reading the play and pinching in for a good scoring chance.I felt he was a bit snake bitten and should have had more points than he did.This coming season, the forward core will be better, we will have a top notch coach who involves his D men alot in the Ozone.Burns, Vlasic and Boyle are in the top 20 forIHDSC in the last 3 years. If Schultz has committed himself to getting stronger and working on his shot, I think offensively he could have a banner year. If this coming year is the same, then flush him.

    Agreed. He has the things you cant teach, and lacks the things you can teach (mostly). It ckmes down to how much work he puts in this summer, and how well tMac uses him.

  77. frjohnk says:

    flyfish1168:
    frjohnk,

    justin maybe best at readying the plays and pinching in but he sure is poor at finishing. I wonder, are you able to show his chances againstTOI along with the other top d-men?

    Top 50 Individual High Danger Scoring Chances For/60 min D men 5 on 5

    Dustin.Byfuglien 2.97
    Jacob.Trouba 2.69
    Dougie.Hamilton 2.53
    John.Carlson 2.21
    Erik.Karlsson 2.18
    Anton.Stralman 2.13
    Torey.Krug 2.12
    Brent.Burns 2.08
    Kevin.Bieksa 2.06
    Mike.Green 2.05
    Zdeno.Chara 1.93
    Jake.Muzzin 1.92
    Morgan.Rielly 1.86
    Kris.Letang 1.83
    Jake.Gardiner 1.79
    James.Wisniewski 1.77
    Dennis.Wideman 1.74
    Alex.Goligoski 1.74
    John.Klingberg 1.74
    Duncan.Keith 1.72
    Mark.Giordano 1.72
    Roman.Josi 1.71
    Marco.Scandella 1.70
    Oscar.Klefbom 1.67
    Jared.Spurgeon 1.65
    Kyle.Quincey 1.63
    Seth.Jones 1.62
    Tyson.Barrie 1.61
    Michael.Stone 1.59
    Oliver.Ekman-Larsson 1.59
    Cody.Ceci 1.59
    Alex.Pietrangelo 1.59
    Keith.Yandle 1.58
    Travis.Hamonic 1.56
    Justin.Schultz 1.54
    Mattias.Ekholm 1.52
    Andrej.Sekera 1.52
    Andrei.Markov 1.52
    Shea.Weber 1.51
    T.J..Brodie 1.51
    Jason.Demers 1.51
    Brent.Seabrook 1.39
    Drew.Doughty 1.38
    Jeff.Petry 1.38
    Matt.Niskanen 1.37
    Brooks.Orpik 1.36
    Ron.Hainsey 1.36
    Brenden.Dillon 1.35

    That Klefbom fella is showing up in lots of good places. He might become better than we think.

  78. Gordies Elbow says:

    wheatnoil:
    One day, when it’s RNH working some magic in the Western Conference Finals, we can all be concerned about how LT is going to fit in a RE series, a draft preview, and a pre-draft summer top 20 all in the 2 weeks between the Finals and the draft.

    Not worried. Not worried at all.

    In a summer where Edmonton replaced it’s senior leadership, players like Nurse and Draisaitl found a new level, and the weather has been great has me more optimistic than usual.

    Oh, and by the way, apparently Edmonton won something of a draft lottery. So we have that going for us as well.

    You know, post this rapture thing, is alot better than before. Who knew?

  79. Kitchener says:

    June 25th is huge. If UFA interest can be projected to fill the immediate roster holes, the club can keep the picks and set up the pipeline for the next decade. If not, they need to consider trading picks for immediate help.

    Two paths, one team. June 25th is the day I’ll be hitting refresh the most often.

  80. wheatnoil says:

    frjohnk,

    Another guy showing up well on that list is one Torey Krug, who NYCOIL had mentioned as a target out of Boston, what with them having to sign #3 on that list. More offense than Schultz without the defensive chaos. Similar cap hit too, assuming Schultz ends up signing his Q-O.

    Of course, when any list that has Wideman show up as high as that probably has some confounding variables associated with it. Mind you, maybe Wideman isn’t so bad at creating offensive chances and I just irrationally don’t like him.

  81. Kitchener says:

    square_wheels,

    Thank you Manitoba.

  82. frjohnk says:

    wheatnoil:
    frjohnk,

    Another guy showing up well on that list is one Torey Krug, who NYCOIL had mentioned as a target out of Boston, what with them having to sign #3 on that list. More offense than Schultz without the defensive chaos. Similar cap hit too, assuming Schultz ends up signing his Q-O.

    Of course, when any list that has Wideman show up as high as that probably has some confounding variables associated with it.

    Wideman in the offensive zone is quite good. In the D zone, he is worse than Schultz.

    These are the 20 worst Dmen who are on the ice the most for high scoring chances against/60 min ( 500 min of 5 on 5 played this year)

    Dion.Phaneuf 21.13
    Tyson.Strachan
    Rasmus.Ristolainen
    Morgan.Rielly
    Josh.Gorges
    Nikita.Zadorov
    Roman.Polak
    Andre.Benoit
    Dennis.Wideman
    Kris.Russell
    Nathan.Guenin
    Martin.Marincin
    Andrej.Meszaros
    Michael.Del.Zotto
    Brian.Strait
    Erik.Johnson
    Luca.Sbisa
    Ryan.Stanton
    Mike.Weber
    Cody.Franson 18.32

    Schultz is somewhat a ways down from those tire fires.

    Justin Schultz 16.88

    PK Subban 16.55 ( amazing how great goaltending can make a d man look)

    Ive always felt that Subban is more physical than Schultz but defensively they can both be tire fires. This proves some of that.

  83. Kitchener says:

    Hopefully Drai wins MC MVP.

    It would be good for the Oilers if the 3C/LW (Drai) can look the Oil’s 2015-16 best player (Hall) in the eye and say, “I won that too.” Also, if Drai can look Connor in the eye and know he’s in the conversation.

    3 headed monsters are hard to find, but McJ, RNH + Drai looks like a Flame-killing beast.

  84. wheatnoil says:

    frjohnk,

    Not a great place for Marincin to show up. Interesting that his possession numbers look good but he shows up poorly in high danger shots. Lends at least a bit of evidence to the theory that he’s great in the neutral zone preventing zone entries, hence impacting his possession, but poorer in the D-zone at breaking up cycles and taking out his man.

    Mind you, team-mates and zone starts probably play into this… and he’s just finished his ELC. Still, interesting data. Thanks for sharing this!

  85. LadiesloveSmid says:

    frjohnk: I pick Schultz.Younger, cheaper and I think there is room for improvement.

    War on ice has a new tab that shows “individual high danger scoring chances”.Looking at 5 on 5 data and it shows that Schultz was tied for 21st ( with OEL) in the league for D men with 37 IHDSC.1 more than Green who had 36.Franson had 16.Karlsson led the league with 61. Klefbom was tied with Petry with 24 IHDSC, but Klefbom did it in 18 fewer games.

    Yeah, Shultz has chaos in his game, is overpaid, is not strong the puck, does not have a good slapper, needs to get stronger….I could go on.But I also believe some of this can be corrected to the point where is warts are not so bad.But this is on the organization and him to identify these weaknesses and remedy.The organization has to also put him in an area to succeed.

    From the blue line in, he is one of the best in the league at reading the play and pinching in for a good scoring chance.I felt he was a bit snake bitten and should have had more points than he did.This coming season, the forward core will be better, we will have a top notch coach who involves his D men alot in the Ozone.Burns, Vlasic and Boyle are in the top 20 forIHDSC in the last 3 years. If Schultz has committed himself to getting stronger and working on his shot, I think offensively he could have a banner year. If this coming year is the same, then flush him.

    Very nice post.

    I’m way too hard on Schultz. Think I just like to ride the wave. If he had signed on with another team in 2012, I might be considering him a decent target right now. Let’s see how he does with an experienced coach and while we’re at it, and experienced (not Ference/Nultz experienced) quality partner

  86. Kitchener says:

    LT: your post “The Omega Molecule” reaches deep into my personal mythology. I just rewatched that episode (part of a misguided re-watch of ST’s worst series, Voyager) and, in a Seven kind of way, had 3.2 seconds or more of synthesis.

    Full disclosure: in my world, The Federation > The Oilers. Your post’s title (http://lowetide.ca/2015/05/19/the-omega-molecule/), combined with Scarlett, combined with “crawled through a river of shit and came out clean on the other side”, combined with McJesus really hit the mark. Back to Oiler terminology, “baby Jesus” really are words that make a man run out of words. Top shelf vocabulary.

    Thanks again for running the best blog in the business. I own ~70 websites and speak at web strategy conferences, so I’m not completely full of shit on the subject. Please, enjoy a tasty beverage on me.

  87. Магия 10 says:

    Магия 10: LT: your post “The Omega Molecule” reaches deep into my personal mythology. I just rewatched that episode (part of a misguided re-watch of ST’s worst series, Voyager) and, in a Seven kind of way, had 3.2 seconds or more of synthesis.

    Don’t forget the 13 second version in the 7th best “star trek” movie:

    http://m.ign.com/articles/2013/08/12/diehard-star-trek-fans-rank-the-best-and-worst-movies

  88. flyfish1168 says:

    frjohnk: Top 50 Individual High Danger Scoring Chances For/60 min D men 5 on 5

    Dustin.Byfuglien2.97
    Jacob.Trouba2.69
    Dougie.Hamilton2.53
    John.Carlson2.21
    Erik.Karlsson2.18
    Anton.Stralman2.13
    Torey.Krug2.12
    Brent.Burns2.08
    Kevin.Bieksa2.06
    Mike.Green2.05
    Zdeno.Chara1.93
    Jake.Muzzin1.92
    Morgan.Rielly1.86
    Kris.Letang1.83
    Jake.Gardiner1.79
    James.Wisniewski1.77
    Dennis.Wideman1.74
    Alex.Goligoski1.74
    John.Klingberg1.74
    Duncan.Keith1.72
    Mark.Giordano1.72
    Roman.Josi1.71
    Marco.Scandella1.70
    Oscar.Klefbom1.67
    Jared.Spurgeon1.65
    Kyle.Quincey1.63
    Seth.Jones1.62
    Tyson.Barrie1.61
    Michael.Stone1.59
    Oliver.Ekman-Larsson1.59
    Cody.Ceci1.59
    Alex.Pietrangelo1.59
    Keith.Yandle1.58
    Travis.Hamonic1.56
    Justin.Schultz1.54
    Mattias.Ekholm1.52
    Andrej.Sekera1.52
    Andrei.Markov1.52
    Shea.Weber1.51
    T.J..Brodie1.51
    Jason.Demers1.51
    Brent.Seabrook1.39
    Drew.Doughty1.38
    Jeff.Petry1.38
    Matt.Niskanen1.37
    Brooks.Orpik1.36
    Ron.Hainsey1.36
    Brenden.Dillon1.35

    That Klefbom fella is showing up in lots of good places.He might become better than we think.

    Thanks for the awesome work. Brent Burns would be a nice target.

  89. sumaclab says:

    The more LD stars at the MEM CUP the greater his stock will rise. Is he the piece that could get us a piece like Seabrook? But a Seabrook with a 3-5 year extension signed before a trade?

    Cam Talbot .Martin Jones>33rd pick

    Tyler Pitlick? Has injured himself out of a contract.

    Justin Shultz? Time to move on.

    Nikita Nikitan? I’ll pay for his carry on bag charges as we ship him out the door.

    Andrew Ference? PC should hae a talk with him about retiring. Then give him a job in the organization .

    Draft Pavel Zacha

  90. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    frjohnk: Top 50 Individual High Danger Scoring Chances For/60 min D men 5 on 5

    Dustin.Byfuglien2.97
    Jacob.Trouba2.69
    Dougie.Hamilton2.53
    John.Carlson2.21
    Erik.Karlsson2.18
    Anton.Stralman2.13
    Torey.Krug2.12
    Brent.Burns2.08
    Kevin.Bieksa2.06
    Mike.Green2.05
    Zdeno.Chara1.93
    Jake.Muzzin1.92
    Morgan.Rielly1.86
    Kris.Letang1.83
    Jake.Gardiner1.79
    James.Wisniewski1.77
    Dennis.Wideman1.74
    Alex.Goligoski1.74
    John.Klingberg1.74
    Duncan.Keith1.72
    Mark.Giordano1.72
    Roman.Josi1.71
    Marco.Scandella1.70
    Oscar.Klefbom1.67
    Jared.Spurgeon1.65
    Kyle.Quincey1.63
    Seth.Jones1.62
    Tyson.Barrie1.61
    Michael.Stone1.59
    Oliver.Ekman-Larsson1.59
    Cody.Ceci1.59
    Alex.Pietrangelo1.59
    Keith.Yandle1.58
    Travis.Hamonic1.56
    Justin.Schultz1.54
    Mattias.Ekholm1.52
    Andrej.Sekera1.52
    Andrei.Markov1.52
    Shea.Weber1.51
    T.J..Brodie1.51
    Jason.Demers1.51
    Brent.Seabrook1.39
    Drew.Doughty1.38
    Jeff.Petry1.38
    Matt.Niskanen1.37
    Brooks.Orpik1.36
    Ron.Hainsey1.36
    Brenden.Dillon1.35

    That Klefbom fella is showing up in lots of good places.He might become better than we think.

    That’s really interesting, I’ve never seen that before. Where does the data come from, and how is it calculated?

    I think part of the reason I’m curious is the wide gaps at the top. Given that there has to be 200 Dmen in the league on the master list, it’s a bit shocking that there is a 15% decline from #3 to #4. It seems unlikely that there would be such a gap. Not saying it’s wrong, I certainly don’t know enough about it to suggest that, but it certainly jumps out at you.

  91. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    sumaclab:
    The more LD stars at the MEM CUP the greaterhis stock will rise. Is he the piece that could get us a piecelike Seabrook? But a Seabrook with a 3-5 year extension signed before a trade?

    Cam Talbot .Martin Jones>33rd pick

    Tyler Pitlick? Has injured himself out of a contract.

    Justin Shultz? Time to move on.

    Nikita Nikitan? I’ll pay for his carry on bag charges as we ship him out the door.

    Andrew Ference? PC should hae a talk with him about retiring. Then give him a job in the organization .

    Draft Pavel Zacha

    Can someone explain to me what is so impressive about Martin Jones as compared to Ben Scrivens 18 months ago? I don’t get the love. He’s got some upside, but I’m hardly sold. He’s not in the same league as Talbot.

  92. Ben says:

    The only type of player I’m trading Draisaitl for is a top quality, improving, near-top pairing D on an entry level deal. ie: Seth Jones, Morgan Reilly, Trouba, Ristolainen maybe…

    I’m not sure an aging Seabrook at $7M per for the next 6-7 years helps this team win a cup. (Improve in the standings next year, yes. Cup, no.)

  93. Ben says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: Can someone explain to me what is so impressive about Martin Jones as compared to Ben Scrivens 18 months ago?I don’t get the love.He’s got some upside, but I’m hardly sold.He’s not in the same league as Talbot.

    Jones has upside, good results at all levels…

    My ideal moves for G are to sign a vet like Niemi for 2 years, and trade for an ‘upside’ backup (Lehner, Talbot, Jones). I think that’s the best approach to solidifying the position in both the short and long term.

    I wonder who Chiarelli has in mind to coach G.

  94. dustrock says:

    Don’t blow your load in this offseason. Do not trade any of the top prospects unless a can’t-beat offer comes along.

    Try and sign one UFA d-man at most, trade for a goalie, hopefully trade for another d-man.

    Give the team a year with McLellan and another year for Klefbom, Nurse, Draisaitl and McDavid to develop. Then next offseason you reach for the rainbow.

  95. godot10 says:

    The type of defensemen the Oilers need are mobile puck movers who are better at defense. Not mobile puck movers who are better at offense. The OIlers are developing young D, Klefbom, Nurse, and Schultz. The D needed are those who are better in their own end, than in the opposition end (as long as the are mobile puck movers).

    Paul Martin, if one can limit the contract to 3 years, may be the best bet (after Petry, of course), of the UFA. His offense is decent also.

    Does anyone have an update on Sekera’s injury?

  96. Tarkus says:

    T minus one month until McDavid officially dons the Oil silks.

    And there will be even more rejoicing than that time the Knights of the Round Table were forced to eat Sir Robin’s minstrels.

  97. sumaclab says:

    Seth Jones for LD. I’d do that in a blink.
    I like Cam Talbot too. Either or for the 33rd would be fine by me.

    The Oilers are positioned so well going into the draft. The sign should read Open for Buisness.

  98. russ99 says:

    godot10:
    The type of defensemen the Oilers need are mobile puck movers who are better at defense.Not mobile puck movers who are better at offense. The OIlers are developing young D, Klefbom, Nurse, and Schultz.The D needed are those who are better in their own end, than in the opposition end (as long as the are mobile puck movers).

    Paul Martin, if one can limit the contract to 3 years, may be the best bet (after Petry, of course), of the UFA.His offense is decent also.

    Does anyone have an update on Sekera’s injury?

    Those players are few and hard to acquire. Most UFAs are good at one or the other end of the ice, like Green (offense) and Franson (defense).

    Besides, with Klefbom and Nurse, we’ve got two players who could wind up as those mobile puck movers who are better at defense on non-UFA contracts.

    I’d argue we more vitally need a tough defense-first D-man who can skate and will mentor the kids on own-zone responsibility by leading through example, like an actually good and more physical version of Ference, or better yet a new Gator.

  99. Henry says:

    frjohnk: Top 50 Individual High Danger Scoring Chances For/60 min D men 5 on 5

    Dustin.Byfuglien2.97
    Jacob.Trouba2.69
    Dougie.Hamilton2.53
    John.Carlson2.21
    Erik.Karlsson2.18
    Anton.Stralman2.13
    Torey.Krug2.12
    Brent.Burns2.08
    Kevin.Bieksa2.06
    Mike.Green2.05
    Zdeno.Chara1.93
    Jake.Muzzin1.92
    Morgan.Rielly1.86
    Kris.Letang1.83
    Jake.Gardiner1.79
    James.Wisniewski1.77
    Dennis.Wideman1.74
    Alex.Goligoski1.74
    John.Klingberg1.74
    Duncan.Keith1.72
    Mark.Giordano1.72
    Roman.Josi1.71
    Marco.Scandella1.70
    Oscar.Klefbom1.67
    Jared.Spurgeon1.65
    Kyle.Quincey1.63
    Seth.Jones1.62
    Tyson.Barrie1.61
    Michael.Stone1.59
    Oliver.Ekman-Larsson1.59
    Cody.Ceci1.59
    Alex.Pietrangelo1.59
    Keith.Yandle1.58
    Travis.Hamonic1.56
    Justin.Schultz1.54
    Mattias.Ekholm1.52
    Andrej.Sekera1.52
    Andrei.Markov1.52
    Shea.Weber1.51
    T.J..Brodie1.51
    Jason.Demers1.51
    Brent.Seabrook1.39
    Drew.Doughty1.38
    Jeff.Petry1.38
    Matt.Niskanen1.37
    Brooks.Orpik1.36
    Ron.Hainsey1.36
    Brenden.Dillon1.35

    That Klefbom fella is showing up in lots of good places.He might become better than we think.

    Interesting data. The top 10 are all right shooting Dmen, and Doughty is somehow not there. The puck tilts slightly to that side on offense and the Oilers have one right shooting Dman in the whole system.

    I hope Chiarelli can get Petry back.

  100. godot10 says:

    russ99: Those players are few and hard to acquire. Most UFAs are good at one or the other end of the ice, like Green (offense) and Franson (defense).

    Besides, with Klefbom and Nurse, we’ve got two players who could wind up as those mobile puck movers who are better at defense on non-UFA contracts.

    I’d argue we more vitally need a tough defense-first D-man who can skate and will mentor the kids on own-zone responsibility by leading through example, like an actually good and more physical version of Ference, or better yet a new Gator.

    1) Franson isn’t good at defense.
    2) You last point is my point. We need defense first D-men who are mobile puck movers. So more Martin and Sekera (if healthy), rather than offensive types like Franson who aren’t good defensively.

  101. Truth says:

    I’d keep Pitlick over Hunt for the 50 man roster. Would consider Pitlick over Miller as well. Miller has scored more to date but is 3 years older. I also don’t see a spot in the roster opening up for Miller’s player type on the Oilers in the next 5 years, which puts him pretty much over the hill. Pitlick’s previously (still?) “projected” player type is needed right now.

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