HE SHALL BE LEON, HE SHALL BE A GOOD MAN

I’ll admit to feeling no small amount of disappointment when the Erie Otters were eliminated in the OHL playoffs. A chance to see Connor McDavid on junior hockey’s biggest stage would have been grand. As often happens, the hockey Gods decided to go against the Hollywood script and the result is a full spotlight on one Leon Draisaitl. The young man has been splendid at the Memorial Cup.

Leon is a perfect fit for these Oilers for lots of reasons: he’s a fantastic passer and can make moves in tight situations. Draisaitl is also faster than people think (he suffers from Frank Mahovlich disease, meaning he doesn’t do things in short bursts, so people assume slowness). There’s also this:

  • RNH 6.00, 190
  • Connor McDavid 6.01, 187
  • Draisaitl 6.01, 210

The German is the bigger man and he uses that size to protect the puck and slow the pace to great effect. He has a lot of little things he does to keep possession, kinds of wastes time while shaking opponents 10 miles from the net. Let’s compare (size only) the Oilers (apparent) trio with another famous group of centers:

  • Sidney Crosby 5.11, 200
  • Evgeni Malkin 6.03, 195
  • Jordan Staal 6.04, 220

The next question for the Oilers and (Peter Chiarelli) is who to put with his franchise centers. I think the easiest way to look at this is via ‘pairs’ with extra men slotted in until chemistry establishes itself:

  • RNH-Eberle
  • McDavid-Hall
  • Draisaitl-Purcell (57.9 Corsi for 5×5% last season, small sample size)

But that’s not what we’re like to see this fall. Before the trades, my guess is the F’s might roll like this opening night:

  • Pouliot—Nuge—Eberle
  • Hall—McDavid—Yakupov
  • Draisaitl—Lander—Purcell

I’d really like to see a Justin Williams added for the spot Yakupov occupies. We’ll see, not a lot of priority on wings this summer is my guess but a veteran two-way type would be fantastic.

We shouldn’t overlook this possible signing. There’s a window here for a skilled winger (Leon’s spot above) and Slip Slappy has pro experience and a dynamic style. I’m discouraged about the possibility of Roy signing this week, but the Russian’s arrival seems inevitable. Good for him, he’s earned it.

ference

WHAT WILL CHIARELLI DO?

The last time Chiarello took over a hockey team, he added (mostly) veterans until the Bruins won Stanley. Get good players, keep good players, and PC added men with experience.

  • Nathan Horton: He had six years of NHL experience when Boston acquired him for Dennis Wideman and picks.
  • Dennis Seidenberg: He had seven years of NHL experience when Boston acquired him for Bitz and pieces.
  • Gregory Campbell: He had five years of NHL experience when Boston acquired him for Dennis Wideman and picks.
  • Andrew Ference: He had seven years of NHL experience when Boston acquired him for Wayne Primeau and Brad Stuart.
  • Chris Kelly: He had six years of NHL experience when Boston acquired him for a pick.
  • Daniel Paille: He had three years of NHL experience when Boston acquired him for a pick.
  • Mark Recchi: He had 20 years of NHL experience when Boston acquired him for Matt Lashoff.
  • Rich Peverley: He had four years NHL experience when Boston acquired him for Blake Wheeler.
  • Tomas Kaberle: He was in his twelfth NHL season when Boston acquired him for Joe Colborne and a first and second-round pick.
  • Shane Hnidy: He had seven years of NHL experience when Boston acquired him for Brandon Bochenski.
  • Shawn Thornton: He had three years of NHL experience when Boston signed him as a UFA.
  • Michael Ryder: He had four years of NHL experience when Boston signed him as a UFA.
  • Tyler Seguin: No. 2 overall selection.
  • Jordan Caron: No. 25 overall selection.
  • Johnny Boychuk: He had just four games of NHL experience (but was an experienced minor league player) when Boston acquired him for Matt Hendricks.
  • Adam McQuaid: He was in his final junior season when Boston acquired him for a pick.

After he came to Boston, Chiarelli used the draft for two pieces, traded for non-established NHL players twice, signed two veteran free agents (young veterans, mind) and traded for 10 veterans (about one-half a roster) to get there. He often overpaid for these players but the overall effect was massive improvement. One more note: The Bruins system was churning out quality on an impressive level at this time, giving Boston a huge boost naturally. It can be argued successfully that Edmonton’s youth is of a higher calibre.

One thing we know: Chiarelli’s first draft pick is going to be here a long damn time.

johansson

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy and fantastic morning on the show, we begin at 10, TSN1260.

  • Jonathan Willis, Cult of Hockey. We have a good long look at what Chiarelli might do this summer.
  • Kadeisha Buchanan, a young defender for Canada and a big part of our nation’s entry at this year’s World Cup of Soccer.
  • Darcy McLeod, Because Oilers. Darcy’s fine work on goalie quality has been noticed in many circles and we’ll talk about the metrics he uses and what they’re telling him about the possible solutions in net for Edmonton.
  • Guy Flaming, Pipeline Show. The Memorial Cup is in full swing, we’ll gush about Leon and talk about the draft.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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117 Responses to "HE SHALL BE LEON, HE SHALL BE A GOOD MAN"

  1. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    My god does Leon look thick compared to the other Junior kids. He’s not massively tall but he looks to be about 5 feet wide at the shoulders.

    If him and Nurse both reach their potential, we will be in great shape for a long time.

  2. zatch says:

    I’m hesitant to read into PC’s past too much. It can obviously offer a bit of a window into how he thinks, but it’s a sample size of 1, and the situation in Edmonton is extremely different than when he went to Boston.

  3. slopitch says:

    Just watched that shorthanded goal by Draisatl last night. What a beauty. A large man, powering his way around the dman before going top cheese. We’ve been waiting for a big C for years. Honestly if it wasn’t for McDavid we’d be tossing around Nuge/Drai 1/2C for years with grins on our faces. Nuge, McDavid, Drai, Lander. Wow. I know the D is a mess. So is the goaltending but thats a nice group of centers.

    “I’d really like to see a Justin Williams added for the spot Yakupov occupies. We’ll see, not a lot of priority on wings this summer is my guess but a veteran two-way type would be fantastic.”

    Why not just put Purcell there? I like the look with Yak there. Taylor Hall is a veteran winger.

  4. czar says:

    Leon got tips on growing a playoff beard from Stan Weir.

    I can’t believe Russell’s “Action Saxon” hasn’t caught on.

  5. dustrock says:

    Just read Young Willis’ piece on “Oilers Cap Hell”. Man, there are some bad contracts on this team.

    Schultz $3.675m
    Purcell, Nikitin $4.5m
    Ference $3.25m
    Scrivens $2.3m

    Wonder if it would be worthwhile to see if you can dump any of Ference, Nikitin and Purcell for retained salary?

  6. su_dhillon says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    My god does Leon look thick compared to the other Junior kids.He’s not massively tall but he looks to be about 5 feet wide at the shoulders.

    If him and Nurse both reach their potential, we will be in great shape for a long time.

    Had a friend go watch Leon play against the Giants and he said it was like the time Nelson Muntz played pee wee football and was just dragging guys into the endzone. he definitely looks like a man playing against mostly boys out there.

    More importantly he always seems so calm with puck on his stick, size/skill/strength combo kind of makes him a unique talent on the team.

  7. Really? says:

    Thee s no question that Draisaitl is a force at the Memorial Cup. He shows extremely well against some of the best defensively talented teams in the CHL.

    Given his puck control/possession skills coupled with his puck distribution abilities, would love to see him work with line mates who can snipe.

    Drai presents unique challenges for D zone coverages if he is played as a third line centre. At the same time this could create a very real opportunity for the Oilers to have that rare beast known as a three scoring line team.

    Great prosect. Looking forward to seeing him develop.

  8. Clay says:

    It’s too bad he isn’t a right shot. A line of Hall – McDavid – Draisaitl would make opposing defenders literally shit their pants.

  9. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Really?:
    Thee s no question that Draisaitl is a force at the Memorial Cup. He shows extremely well against some of the best defensively talented teams in the CHL.

    Given his puck control/possession skills coupled with his puck distribution abilities,would love to see him work with line mates who can snipe.

    Drai presents unique challenges for D zone coverages if he is played as a third line centre. At the same time this could create a very real opportunity for the Oilers to have that rare beast known as a three scoring line team.

    Great prosect. Looking forward to seeing him develop.

    And apparently he kills penalties. He kills them. With goals.

  10. wheatnoil says:

    Bohologo,

    Thanks for the translation. Sounds quite likely that Slappy is coming over… or at least that he wants to. Perhaps Chiarelli wants to see what happens around the draft and free agency to get a better sense of what his 50 man list looks like?

  11. Bar_Qu says:

    To think. The Oilers almost Lander’ed Draisaitl.

    So glad they sent him back to jr to continue his development and regain/retain his confidence. And have a chance at success at the biggest level in non-pro hockey.

  12. Pajamah says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: And apparently he kills penalties.He kills them.With goals.

    Lander, Draisatl, Marincin, Fayne already looks like one hell of a PK Unit. Maybe soon the Oilers will go Opposite George and instead of giving up a ton of goals on an Oiler PP, we will lead the league in PK goals.

  13. Doug McLachlan says:

    dustrock,

    Great piece by Willis (as usual) but I actually walked away impressed with what MacT has left.

    Compared to many teams, his mistakes Nikitin, Purcell (not really a mistake IMO) and Ference are all ready to disappear soon.

    Check out CapGeek (RIP) successor/wanabee General Fanager, the Oiler’s situation is pretty good when contrasted with some of the albatrosses out there.

    http://www.generalfanager.com/teams/12

    I think Purcell, in particular, is a trade deadline deal piece to be sent out to a contender come March when his cost has dropped off. Schultz, while much maligned here and for good reason, may simply need a bit more time with the right coaching to unlock the “Norris” potential. I jest but really, he’s still a young player with serious potential. Let’s not Dubnyk/Petry him just yet.

  14. wheatnoil says:

    Hitchcock signs a 1 year extension with St. Louis. Man… that’s about as much confidence as a kick in the pants. “Well we lost out on Babcock… so we’ll keep you around and see what’s out there next year.”

  15. rich says:

    Good morning LT. A question for you. Since you have Jon Willis on your show this morning, would you mind asking him why he likes Franson so much? The fancy stats certainly say one thing, but there’s a bit of disconnect for those of us who have watched him play. He was a 3rd pairing d-man when he went to Toronto and again when he came back to NAS. And was a healthy scratch in the regular season and the playoffs who did not get cherry minutes in the playoffs against Chicago.

    Also, my biggest concern about him is that he really is not a physical player and I think EDM fans would turn on him fast.

    Cheers.

  16. jake70 says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    dustrock,

    Great piece by Willis (as usual) but I actually walked away impressed with what MacT has left.

    Compared to many teams, his mistakes Nikitin, Purcell (not really a mistake IMO) and Ference are all ready to disappear soon.

    Check out CapGeek (RIP) successor/wanabee General Fanager, the Oiler’s situation is pretty good when contrasted with some of the albatrosses out there.

    http://www.generalfanager.com/teams/12

    I think Purcell, in particular, is a trade deadline deal piece to be sent out to a contender come March when his cost has dropped off.Schultz, while much maligned here and for good reason, may simply need a bit more time with the right coaching to unlock the “Norris” potential.I jest but really, he’s still a young player with serious potential.Let’s not Dubnyk/Petry him just yet.

    So what are you paying him (Schultz) ?

  17. Hammers says:

    With what we have and what’s coming , forwards is the last thing they should be concerned with . I already thought time and effort had to be on goal and D and I still feel the same way . My guess is the goalie costs nothing more than money and perhaps a draft pick if there concerned where there money goes. The “D” is still a big deal unless they cut at least 2 of our present group and the continual reports of MM going makes no sense . There are enough free agents that 2 could make a huge difference for this team . Dependent on who they have there sights on I would trade the next years 1st and 2nd and keep this years picks especially mid 1st rounder and early 2nd . For me don’t trade those 2 picks , bring in Nurse & Marincin , Leon . There are still forwards bubbling under like Slepy . Wait 1 more year before dumping any of these kids and add depth D from this years free agents . Done righr and all it costs is money .

  18. knighttown says:

    I have to careful how to word this so it doesn’t sound like a “trade Leon” post however the next month would be a relatively “safe” time to trade him. His value would have dipped a bit when we saw how he looked in the NHL for a kid that supposed to be NHL-ready but the spotlight is on him now and he’s shining. Most teams would be willing to write off the struggles this fall as a product of Eakins or a hideously unbalanced roster.

    I think he’d garner an impressive return. Hearing Bergeron’s comments on how difficult it is to obtain a large and legitimate #1 centre what could he get you? Could you get that young elite defenseman?

    -Would the Leafs prefer Leon to Strome? Perhaps Leon + a pick gets you Hanifan + JVR?
    -Alex Pietrangelo?
    -Seth Jones?
    -Leon + for PK Subban?

    I think Seth Jones makes a lot of sense. No team deeper in young defense trading with the deepest team in young centres. Neither are completely proven but are coming off tremendous playoff runs that make their value high and perhaps equal.

  19. knighttown says:

    If you acquire Jones for Leon and sign Soderberg aren’t you further ahead?

  20. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    RPG:
    This is interesting.

    http://www.todaysslapshot.com/from-the-ice/dreger-edmonton-will-be-destination-of-choice/

    Would have liked a follow-up question on this quote:

    because of everything that has gone on and will go into this new facility and the build that they have there. It is going to be structured to cater to every need of the family. Mrs. Hockey Player drops the kids off at the arena – they are looked after from start to finish. With mini stick rinks and (laughs) all kinds of support help.

  21. Doug McLachlan says:

    jake70,

    I like Willis’ suggestion of taking him to team-initiated arbitration if you can’t work something out ahead of time.

    Willis suggests you could knock a half a million off his qualifying offer to get a little over $3.1 million on a one year.

    My preference would to see if you could get a two year deal for around $7 million. It fits in the ballpark of comparable players: Less than Gardiner, same as Luke Schenn, more than Karl Gunnerson and Jared Cowen. Not sure you will pick the same comparables but trying to get mid-twenties d-men who have been “just ok”. Think this trio qualify.

  22. John Chambers says:

    Doug McLachlan,

    You’re correct in that the saving grace of the Oilers’ bad contracts is that they are all short term. As a result Chia can entertain doing creative things like trading Nikitin and or Purcell and a 3rd to TO for a 7th or something similar. MLSE has the money and zero playoff ambitions and are starved for draft picks.

    As for Ference the book move is to probably wait another year then buy him out. By that time Nurse will be ready.

  23. Pouzar says:

    John Chambers:
    Doug McLachlan,

    You’re correct in that the saving grace of the Oilers’ bad contracts is that they are all short term. As a result Chia can entertain doing creative things like trading Nikitin and or Purcell and a 3rd to TO for a 7th or something similar. MLSE has the money and zero playoff ambitions and are starved for draft picks.

    As for Ference the book move is to probably wait another year then buy him out. By that time Nurse will be ready.

    Nurse is better than all of FSN so not sure how that makes us better.

  24. Doug McLachlan says:

    John Chambers,

    Any idea if Arizona might be a place to find Nikitin a home. They have signings to make for sure but they are still $16 million below the floor.

  25. John Chambers says:

    Thought on goaltending:

    Posters cite the cost of Cam Talbot or Martin Jones being a pick and a prospect, however there’s an excellent goaltender in Corey Crawford who will almost certainly be available at a rock-bottom acquisition cost (33 OV perhaps for an All-Star goalie?).

    Indeed there’s risk in a $6M salary but he’s younger than Craig Anderson or Niemi, much more proven than Talbot, Neuvirth et al, and can almost surely start 200 games over the next 4 seasons.

    Paying for a proven goaltender IMO is a worthy risk as stability at that position can do more to elevate the team than any Dman or Centre.

  26. vinotintazo says:

    knighttown,

    Maybe if we had to win NOW. But we’re probably 1-2 years away from being competitive enough. Sodeberg is 29, I think lander can be a 3C, Gord a 4C, if we can get Jones for Drai. I think I would do it honestly.

  27. Pouzar says:

    I wonder if 1 year of Purcell would be an option for the Jets with pending UFAs Frolik and Stafford likely to be heading elsewhere. Purcell can play both wings and up and down a lineup and I am sure that would be value to Chevy.

  28. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    wheatnoil:
    Hitchcock signs a 1 year extension with St. Louis. Man… that’s about as much confidence as a kick in the pants. “Well we lost out on Babcock… so we’ll keep you around and see what’s out there next year.”

    I think Hitchcock is beyond needing a confidence boost. It’s pretty fair. I take a great deal of pity on STL because they usually run into a monster in the first round, but I’m not sure anyone has had a better roster on paper over the past 3 years (maybe 1 or two teams but it’s close). He hasn’t managed to do anything with it.

    On top of an already deep team they gave him the #1 prize free agent that the internet was in love with on July 1, Paul Stastny, and added that to a ridiculously deep lineup at forward and defense, to go along with a solid if unspectacular goal tending tandem. Oh, and their young gun went from being a good prospect to one of the most lethal snipers in the game over the course of a summer.

    So ya, it’s a Jeff Petry style “show me” contract, for sure. But I think that’s pretty reasonable.

  29. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    Pinizzotto signs in the DEL:

    http://www.eliteprospects.com/t.php?id=234047

  30. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    John Chambers,

    Given their depth at D, there is a chance they’d take a Nikitin with $2 million retained in exchange. Then we could fill Nikitin minutes with Davidson and still get 1 years savings of $1.5 million, and they would get a depth D to play 10 minutes a night poorly for $2.5 million for 1 year, gone when it comes time to renew Seabrook, along with Cap relief from Crawford being gone (we’d still have to give them a pick/prospect).

  31. dustrock says:

    My problem with the trade options for Purcell & Nikitin is that a bunch of teams are in worse cap hell by far than we are. Won’t be too many options for teams getting to the floor.

  32. flyfish1168 says:

    zatch:
    I’m hesitant to read into PC’s past too much. It can obviously offer a bit of a window into how he thinks, but it’s a sample size of 1, and the situation in Edmonton is extremely different than when he went to Boston.

    I totally agree. I believe if you sat PC down he would admit he didn’t do a good job dealing with the CAP and he is responsible for the Bruins CAP HELL now. We are his do over and hopefully we won’t be in the same situation. It will be tough but hopefully its not by overpay for UFA and trades.

  33. Doug McLachlan says:

    dustrock,

    Save for a few teams, there won’t be space for either until closer to the deadline. At that point Purcell’s “veteran savy” and Nikitin’s “d-man cannon fodder” status won’t be too expensive.

  34. Doug McLachlan says:

    John Chambers,

    Sounds like you had a similar thought to Willis and LT over on Oilers Nation.

    http://oilersnation.com/2015/5/26/war-games-edmonton-oilers-vs-chicago-blackhawks

    Good piece Willis (and thanks for playing Chia, LT – looks good on ya). Still, have trouble believing that Crawford can be had for such a low price – still having to wrap my head around the value of cap space.

  35. Pouzar says:

    1 year of Teddy Purcell at $4.5 million has value. Believe it or not.

    From Young Willis:

    “That’s a pretty good explanation for the decision to keep Purcell. The 29-year-old brings 499 games (including playoffs) of NHL experience to a roster that doesn’t have much of it. He can play at left wing or right wing, and while he’s only a complementary player he’s the kind of guy who can play on the same line as high-level teammates and keep up with them. Not only can he play at even-strength, but he’s been part of both Oilers special teams this year. There’s value in that; he’s a reasonably versatile fill-in option who is unquestionably a real NHL player.”

  36. Bar_Qu says:

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1):
    Pinizzotto signs in the DEL:

    http://www.eliteprospects.com/t.php?id=234047

    Not much of a surprise there. He got some NHL time this year, but next year was not promised. Best of luck in Germany.

  37. wheatnoil says:

    Talk of Slepyshev on the Blogosphere and everyone’s on board with bringing him over…

    Willis: http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2015/05/26/anton-slepyshev-wants-to-join-the-edmonton-oilers/
    Henderson: http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Matt-Henderson/A-MacT-Gamble-Set-To-Pay-Off/191/68883

    We’ve talked about his splits being impressive before. I crunched some numbers while procrastinating this morning…

    .@Archaeologuy Slepyshev
    Pre Jan 1: 40 games, 10:48 TOI, 1.75 shots/g, 9.7 shots/60min
    Post Jan 1: 23 games, 16:08 TOI, 3.2 s/g, 11.9 s/60— WheatNOil (@WheatNOil) May 26, 2015

    Even before Jan 1, he was producing shots in the KHL. After Jan.1, he just exploded. I think he’s going to be fun to watch on this side of the pond.

  38. PhrankLee says:

    Doug McLachlan,

    http://oilersnation.com/2015/5/26/war-games-edmonton-oilers-vs-chicago-blackhawks

    I do that trade in a heartbeat. I know, I know the 33 in a monstrously deep draft…

    But it takes that shakiness in the foundation of our game out of the equation. Done. And that’s the biggest load off the minds of the club, in my opinion.

    Now on to no less than 2 top 4 D!!

    Jesus needed on this play. Jesus, Vishnu, Hafiz and Meatloaf needed on this one!

    In Connor we must. He makes this actually possible.

    Unbelievable. So happy.

  39. delooper says:

    czar:
    Leon got tips on growing a playoff beard from Stan Weir.

    I can’t believe Russell’s “Action Saxon” hasn’t caught on.

    Leon isn’t remotely Saxish, is the problem. What rhymes with Nordrhein Westfalen?

  40. rickithebear says:

    He had a time on Ice push:
    for 3 games nov 10-14
    1 ESG 1EVA 14:55 AVG TOI

    then from start of decemnber
    25 gm
    11 ESG 28 ESG NHLE
    1 PPG 3 PPG NHLE
    3 ESA 8 ESA NHLE
    2 PPA 5 PPA NHLE

  41. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    delooper: Nordrhein Westfalen?

    Somethingsomething crestfallen. Hmmmm…

    How about Cologne? That has better rhyming possibilities.

    Edit: That’s it! The Cologne Colborne!

  42. delooper says:

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1): Somethingsomething crestfallen. Hmmmm…

    How about Cologne? That has better rhyming possibilities.

    Edit: That’s it! The Cologne Colborne!

    Kölner Haie is the local hockey team in Cologne.

  43. RexLibris says:

    I’d recommend the Palatinate Prince for Draisaitl, but that doesn’t really roll off the tongue and he’s from the north Rhine region.

    Westphalia Phenom?

    Rhine Rambler?

    Meuse Maestro?

    Heaven help me I can’t think of a way to reference the Bructeri tribe in his nickname, that might be too distant a reference even for Bob Stauffer.

    Teutoberg Titan? For those familiar with that forest’s infamous history it might hold some attraction.

    I still like The Professional. Just need to have him in a photo op wearing a toque, sunglasses and holding a potted plant.

  44. VanOil says:

    delooper: Kölner Haie is the local hockey team in Cologne.

    Call him Kölsch, no higher compliment in my books!

  45. czar says:

    delooper,

    Many Saxons however remained in Germany, where they resisted the expanding Frankish Empire through the leadership of the semi-legendary Saxon hero, Widukind.

    Saxon, member of a Germanic people

    During the 5th century ce the Saxons spread rapidly through north Germany

    Close enough for me.

  46. Dashingsilverfox says:

    delooper: Leon isn’t remotely Saxish, is the problem.What rhymes with Nordrhein Westfalen?

    Orange.

  47. delooper says:

    czar:
    delooper,

    Many Saxons however remained in Germany, where they resisted the expanding Frankish Empire through the leadership of the semi-legendary Saxon hero, Widukind.

    Saxon, member of a Germanic people

    During the 5th century ce the Saxons spread rapidly through north Germany

    Close enough for me.

    The problem being, Nordrhein Westphalia was the base of the Roman empire and the Frankish Empire in what’s now Germany. Walk around Cologne and you see the ruins everywhere. There’s better-preserved Roman ruins in Cologne than in most towns in Italy. Young Leon’s ancestors were the foes of the Saxons.

    There’s also lots of unexploded US and British bombs all over town, from WWII. After the war, in the rush to reconstruct Germany they built right over hundreds of unexploded bombs. Took me a while to get used to the evacuation drills. I didn’t believe it for a while.

  48. Rip Fan Winkle "OilOnslaught" says:

    Crawford made a nice kick pass to Belesky on that OT goal 🙂

  49. striatic says:

    If Draisaitl moves to the wing, could he be a Lucic equivalent, at least in the non-face-punching respects?

    Wishful thinking probably. Lucic has 2 inches and 25 pounds on him.

  50. delooper says:

    czar:

    https://www.google.ca/?gws_rd=ssl#q=What+is+a+saxon

    If you ever get a chance to visit, Dresden is a lot of fun. Saxon (to me) sounds like what I imagined German should sound like. It’s half way to English from high German, the vocalizations are natural to English speakers. The German they speak in Berlin and Cologne, it makes me giggle, all the funny noises they make…

  51. delooper says:

    The local electricity company in NRW is called Rheinenergie. Big, strong and powerful.

  52. FuhriousGeorge says:

    Longtime lurker, first time poster. Grateful to all of you for providing an intelligent and hospitable environment for Oilers commentary.
    Heard a lot about Justin Williams for that 2 or 3 RW spot, and wondered if there might not be another alternative.
    How about Joel Ward?
    Cons:
    He’s 34.
    Pros:
    He’s UFA.
    Verbal from GM MacLellan isn’t slam-dunk that he’s going to re-sign
    He’s probably more amenable to a two year deal than Williams.
    He’s “heavy”
    He’s scored roughly the same number of goals as Milan Lucic and Justin Williams over the past two years (43).
    He can ride a skill-heavy top line, or play on a third line.
    He’s a natural RW (like Williams, unlike Lucic)
    He’s more protection for McDavid than either Yakupov or Purcell.

    Wouldn’t he be exactly the type of hurdle Yakupov needs to be able to clear for top 6 minutes? If he would sign for, say, 3.5M for 2, and we bought out Purcell, you replace Purcell’s production at the same cap hit with significantly better “heaviness” and role fit. Of course, there remains the possibility that Purcell could be traded for value…in which case you take that route.

    I like the idea of a Hall-McD-Ward line initially, and if Yakupov clears the hurdle, a Lander-Ward pair on the third line looks entirely appropriate as well…

  53. czar says:

    delooper,

    I’ve been to Germany twice but not Cologne so I’ll take your word on the unexploded bombs.

    Duetsches Museum in Munich is a must see and if you ever get to Heidelberg check out “the Cave.” It’s a bar that was built underground with some of the nicest Frauleins in all of Germany.

  54. delooper says:

    czar:
    Duetsches Museum in Munich is a must see and if you ever get to Heidelberg check out “the Cave.” It’s a bar that was built underground with some of the nicest Frauleins in all of Germany.

    Germans are always surprising me with their choice of construction materials.

    On a related question, most German homes have these lovely windows in them that can be opened in two or three different ways, folding in at least from a bottom hinge, or if you choose, from a side hinge, with a clever mechanism to choose between the two. Do any of you know where these windows can be found in Kanada?

  55. Mesmer says:

    RexLibris:
    I’d recommend the Palatinate Prince for Draisaitl, but that doesn’t really roll off the tongue and he’s from the north Rhine region.

    Westphalia Phenom?

    Rhine Rambler?

    Meuse Maestro?

    Heaven help me I can’t think of a way to reference the Bructeri tribe in his nickname, that might be too distant a reference even for Bob Stauffer.

    Teutoberg Titan? For those familiar with that forest’s infamous history it might hold some attraction.

    I still like The Professional. Just need to have him in a photo op wearing a toque, sunglasses and holding a potted plant.

    The Rhine… ocerus?

  56. jake70 says:

    delooper: Germans are always surprising me with their choice of construction materials.

    On a related question, most German homes have these lovely windows in them that can be opened in two or three different ways, folding in at least from a bottom hinge, or if you choose, from a side hinge, with a clever mechanism to choose between the two. Do any of you know where these windows can be found in Kanada?

    german engineering as they say……right down to the kitchen window….

  57. Mesmer says:

    In regards to Slepyshev, it may help the Oilers that Slava Fetisov (of all people!) is making noise from within the higher echelons of the Russian government about banning all Russian players under 28 from playing in the NHL. If I am Slepyshev I don’t risk it, and get out while I can.

    http://sports.yahoo.com/news/fetisov-wants-ban-young-russians-going-nhl-140721933–nhl.html

  58. Woodguy says:

    John Chambers:
    Thought on goaltending:

    Posters cite the cost of Cam Talbot or Martin Jones being a pick and a prospect, however there’s an excellent goaltender in Corey Crawford who will almost certainly be available at a rock-bottom acquisition cost (33 OV perhaps for an All-Star goalie?).

    Indeed there’s risk in a $6M salary but he’s younger than Craig Anderson or Niemi, much more proven than Talbot, Neuvirth et al, and can almost surely start 200 games over the next 4 seasons.

    Paying for a proven goaltender IMO is a worthy risk as stability at that position can do more to elevate the team than any Dman or Centre.

    I like Crawford and he showed up well on the analysis I did of goalies using adjusted save percentage here: http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2015/05/a-look-at-top-ufa-goalies-and-some.html

    My issues Crawford are these:

    1) Contract is $6MM/yr (same as Schneider) and while he’s very good, I think that is an overpayment.

    2) He 31 this year. As I’ve been dissecting goalies, I’ve found that 32 is the year that most start to decline. You are probably getting 2 years of Good, but Overpaid Crawford and 3 years of Not as Good, but still Overpaid Crawford. Goalie’s peak years tend to be 26-32. We are at Peak Crawford. Not a good time to buy.

    3) There are other goalies available who cost less per year and have less term and many of them are younger. Their results are probably cost enough to not warrant taking the extra risk on the Crawford contract.

    I agree with you that he’s good and you can rely (somewhat) on that continuing for the immediate future, but there is too much downside, especially in 3 years when Leon, Jesus and Nurse will be getting raises.

    This team needs better goalies, but I think there are better options.

  59. Truth says:

    https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/kelowna-s-stars-show-up-at-memorial-cup-and-leon-draisaitl-shines-the-brightest-132323157.html

    Draisaitl happy with the management change and doesn’t want to comment on being sent to junior after the World Juniors. He hasn’t ruffled any feathers, and is still trying not to, but you can see why Nicholson dropped the hammer immediately upon holding the reigns.

  60. Pajamah says:

    RexLibris:
    I’d recommend the Palatinate Prince for Draisaitl, but that doesn’t really roll off the tongue and he’s from the north Rhine region.

    Westphalia Phenom?

    Rhine Rambler?

    Meuse Maestro?

    Heaven help me I can’t think of a way to reference the Bructeri tribe in his nickname, that might be too distant a reference even for Bob Stauffer.

    Teutoberg Titan? For those familiar with that forest’s infamous history it might hold some attraction.

    I still like The Professional. Just need to have him in a photo op wearing a toque, sunglasses and holding a potted plant.

    The Munster Monster.

    I checked, its sort of north.

  61. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    Pajamah: The Munster Monster.

    I checked, its sort of north.

    Drai-sey it is then.

  62. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy,

    Overpayed yes, but a 30 year old goalie without very many miles on him is not that old. He may very well give you another quality seven years.

  63. G Money says:

    Isn’t Levon from Cologne?

    The Cologne Colossus?

  64. Pajamah says:

    Woodguy: I like Crawford and he showed up well on the analysis I did of goalies using adjusted save percentage here: http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2015/05/a-look-at-top-ufa-goalies-and-some.html

    My issues Crawford are these:

    1) Contract is $6MM/yr (same as Schneider) and while he’s very good, I think that is an overpayment.

    2) He 31 this year.As I’ve been dissecting goalies, I’ve found that 32 is the year that most start to decline.You are probably getting 2 years of Good, but Overpaid Crawford and 3 years of Not as Good, but still Overpaid Crawford.Goalie’s peak years tend to be 26-32.We are at Peak Crawford.Not a good time to buy.

    3)There are other goalies available who cost less per year and have less term and many of them are younger.Their results are probably cost enough to not warrant taking the extra risk on the Crawford contract.

    I agree with you that he’s good and you can rely (somewhat) on that continuing for the immediate future, but there is too much downside, especially in 3 years when Leon, Jesus and Nurse will be getting raises.

    This team needs better goalies, but I think there are better options.

    My question is this, if the Oilers take Crawford at a bloated salary, and help Chicago with their cap issues, does this lessen the price for a Seabrook, or potentially a Hjalmersson?

    I know it isnt Phaneuf territory, but his value is slightly diminished by age and salary. Say PC gives up 33 overall, that should hopefully get them close to Crawford price, and Schultz + for Seabrook.

    Eg. 33, Schultz, Yakimov for Seabrook, Crawford (no salary retained)

    I hate playing armchair GM, but does that get it close, or not even in the ballpark?

    Assuming of course that the Oilers buyout the double agent, do the salaries work?

  65. Truth says:

    I have always thought Crawford’s results are a product of the team in front of him rather than vice-versa. As we have seen in Dubnyk, I would not suggest playing for the Oilers is at all beneficial for your career in goaltending. I would go so far as to suggest that if you directly swapped Scrivens for Crawford one year ago the two teams would be in the exact same position today.

  66. Pajamah says:

    G Money:
    Isn’t Levon from Cologne?

    The Cologne Colossus?

    Cologna Rocket

  67. delooper says:

    Pajamah: Cologna Rocket

    Kölnerakete 🙂

  68. JJ says:

    delooper says:
    May 26, 2015 at 11:11 am

    czar:
    Leon got tips on growing a playoff beard from Stan Weir.

    I can’t believe Russell’s “Action Saxon” hasn’t caught on.

    Leon isn’t remotely Saxish, is the problem. What rhymes with Nordrhein Westfalen?
    ———————————————————–

    Did you see his playoff beard?

    Drai is The Westphalia Wolf.

  69. Pajamah says:

    delooper: Kölnerakete

    Gesundheit.

  70. JJ says:

    delooper says:
    May 26, 2015 at 12:58 pm

    On a related question, most German homes have these lovely windows in them that can be opened in two or three different ways, folding in at least from a bottom hinge, or if you choose, from a side hinge, with a clever mechanism to choose between the two. Do any of you know where these windows can be found in Kanada?

    ————————————————————————

    Search “Tilt and Turn windows Canada”

  71. Nostradumbass says:

    Man that Draisaitl article in yahoo paints some kind of ridiculousness regarding the Oilers keeping Leon up

    Leon at the draft “I really think I need another year in junior to learn NA game”

    Oiler management “Nope your’re in now”

  72. delooper says:

    I found dealers for the German windows in Canada. Gaulhofer is one.

    thanks JJ. We were doing almost the same thing at the time.

  73. Магия 10 says:

    Pajamah: Cologna Rocket

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1): Drai-sey it is then.

    Beats the Squirmin German.(rocket’s play by play)

  74. czar says:

    JJ,

    Leon shook hands with Stan Weir when he was 12 and had to shave twice a day ever since.

  75. RexLibris says:

    JJ:
    delooper says:
    May 26, 2015 at 11:11 am

    czar: Leon got tips on growing a playoff beard from Stan Weir.

    I can’t believe Russell’s “Action Saxon” hasn’t caught on.

    Leon isn’t remotely Saxish, is the problem. What rhymes with Nordrhein Westfalen?
    ———————————————————–

    Did you see his playoff beard?

    Drai is The Westfalen Wolf.

    Westphalia Wolf?

    I like that!

  76. Woodguy says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy,

    Overpayed yes, but a 30 year old goalie without very many miles on him is not that old.He may very well give you another quality seven years.

    Can you show me where you figured that out?

    I didn’t find that in my research.

  77. judgedrude says:

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1): How about Cologne? That has better rhyming possibilities.

    How about the Cologne Ranger?

  78. Dashingsilverfox says:

    judgedrude: How about the Cologne Ranger?

    Or maybe….

    Joe de Cologne

  79. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    Магия 10:
    Beats the Squirmin German.(rocket’s play by play)

    I’ve heard Deutschland Dangler, which makes think of Boogie Nights, for some reason.

  80. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy,

    Dwayne Roloson is a little sad that you think he was washed up when he hit 30. No one told Tim Thomas he was washed up he didn’t even make the league until he was over 30. Lunquist is 33 and playing some of the best hockey this year and he has miles on him. Dominator played over age 40. Luongo just posted some of the best numbers in his career in front of a bunch of kids at age 36

    Lately I’ve noticed a theme about players being too old to help this team and that number is dropping and dropping. Now a 30 year old is washed up. In two years we will be talking about a 27 year old being too old to contribute. Some players especially ones that have managed to stay healthy are good for a long time. Lumping a bunch of players who are very different from genetics to injury luck, to work ethic and coming to conclusions not even about their current abilities but about future abilities is next to impossible. I would like to see real stats to your advanced stats. Yes with P values and everything

  81. Doug McLachlan says:

    Woodguy,

    $6M is a lot to pay for any goalie and, agreed, he isn’t elite.

    If not Crawford, who we all generally agree could be available, then who would you suggest instead?

    FA goalies younger than Crawford include:

    Ramo,
    Neuvirth.
    Enroth,
    Griess,
    Dubnyk (who looks pretty good now), and
    Lindback (who I am starting to wonder if he could be poised for a Dubnyk-like awakening).

  82. DocFan says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy,

    Dwayne Roloson is a little sad that you think he was washed up when he hit 30.No one told Tim Thomas he was washed up he didn’t even make the league until he was over 30.Lunquist is 33 and playing some of the best hockey this year and he has miles on him.Dominator played over age 40.Luongo just posted some of the best numbers in his career in front of a bunch of kids at age 36

    Lately I’ve noticed a theme about players being too old to help this team and that number is dropping and dropping.Now a 30 year old is washed up.In two years we will be talking about a 27 year old being too old to contribute.Some players especially ones that have managed to stay healthy are good for a long time.Lumping a bunch of players who are very different from genetics to injury luck, to work ethic and coming to conclusions not even about their current abilities but about future abilities is next to impossible.I would like to see real stats to your advanced stats.Yes with P values and everything

    Can you calculate p-values when comparing two very different scenarios – goalies playing different minutes, facing different shots against different opponents and different defences? From my understanding, every variable except the one you change has to be the same. That being said – I agree with woodguy – an aging goalie on a huge contract would be a killer on this team. I’d say worse than having Nikitin on the roster currently (at least he’s gone after next year). Going forward, everything is about Cap and asset management.

    That being said, I might contradict myself with this:

    How about trading for Chara – 3 more years at a big salary – but imagine him and Nurse on a pairing together. I imagine as Nurse enters his 3rd year and Chara is almost done, he’d be carrying the pairing rather than vice versa that one would expect at the beginning.

  83. RexLibris says:

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1): I’ve heard Deutschland Dangler, which makes think of Boogie Nights, for some reason.

    Yeah, Dangle isn’t the best word association there.

    Reminds me of Officer Dangle from Reno 911. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n2e3T8AOv6Y

  84. JJ says:

    From Twitter
    Jeremy Rutherford ‏@jprutherford 1h1 hour ago

    Hitch said the noticeable difference in the 4 remaining playoff teams is speed. He says coaches will make adjustments to pick up the pace.

  85. Rondo says:

    JJ,

    Speed

    Travis Konecny

    Jeremy Roy

    Oliver Kylington

    Kyle Connor

    Zach Senyshyn

  86. spoiler says:

    Woodguy: I like Crawford and he showed up well on the analysis I did of goalies using adjusted save percentage here: http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2015/05/a-look-at-top-ufa-goalies-and-some.html

    My issues Crawford are these:

    1) Contract is $6MM/yr (same as Schneider) and while he’s very good, I think that is an overpayment.

    2) He 31 this year.As I’ve been dissecting goalies, I’ve found that 32 is the year that most start to decline.You are probably getting 2 years of Good, but Overpaid Crawford and 3 years of Not as Good, but still Overpaid Crawford.Goalie’s peak years tend to be 26-32.We are at Peak Crawford.Not a good time to buy.
    .

    This team needs better goalies, but I think there are better options.

    You’re withholding key pieces of information… How much of a drop-off? What was the median age for drop off? Is this drop-off described by a bell curve? How big is one standard deviation? Ie, what do you mean when you say “most”?

    ALL bets on acquiring ANY player of ANY age are probability bets. What’s the probability of it working out in this case?

    If after 3 good years with the Oilers, the Oil are ready to start Broissoit, for eg, is Crawford deal-able with that contract and a higher cap limit? Is trading for him right now a dead end street?

    I’m not saying Crawford would be my choice but your post seems like a summary conviction against the idea.

  87. Prince Rupert's Oildrop says:

    Leon Draisaitl:

    The Newb from the Danube

  88. Prince Rupert's Oildrop says:

    leadfarmer: Lately I’ve noticed a theme about players being too old to help this team and that number is dropping and dropping. Now a 30 year old is washed up.

    Despite the last 9 years or so of seeing old goalies have success, I personally believe this trend will reverse in the future. Those old guys won’t be as good at learning Head Trajectory as the young guys who grow up with it.

  89. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    Woodguy,

    $6M is a lot to pay for any goalie and, agreed, he isn’t elite.

    If not Crawford, who we all generally agree could be available, then who would you suggest instead?

    FA goalies younger than Crawford include:

    Ramo,
    Neuvirth.
    Enroth,
    Griess,
    Dubnyk (who looks pretty good now), and
    Lindback (who I am starting to wonder if he could be poised for a Dubnyk-like awakening).

    The thing is, there is no “low risk play” when it comes to acquiring a goalie through trade or UFA. If a goalie is available at the age of 27, there is something wrong with him. He is deficient in one way or another; he may or may not improve upon the deficiency. It’s simply not possible to go out and acquire a sure fire Vezina finalist in the prime of his career (and if it were possible it would cost so damn much that it would crater your team). Carey Price is not on the market.

    You are either:

    1) signing/trading for a 31+ year old “established starter” who has or will expect a long contract (Crawford/Howard/Niemi/Anderson)
    2)signing/trading for a 31+ year old “somewhat established” starter who may or may not be a capable starting goalie for medium money and term (Hiller last year comes to mind).
    3)signing/trading for a younger backup goalie who posted good numbers in limited minutes and may or may not be able to perform in a 1a position for lower money/term (Talbot/Jones/Neuvirth)
    4)signing/trading for a younger “established starter” who isn’t actually very good who has proven to be mediocre at best and has been forced out by a better choice or because his contract sucks (Pavelec)

    I’m sure there are a few more options but the reality is, no matter what, you’re basically placing a bet. We doubled down on #3 last year, which wasn’t a terrible idea, but it bit us in the ass really hard. Reality is that next year’s bet is independent from this year’s bet, so doubling down on #3 isn’t necessarily a bad choice this year, but basic human psychology tells us it’s unlikely that the same management group would try that again. Given that Chia is in charge now it’s hard to say if that will change, but I’d still bet that we end up with someone with “starter” experience, someone like Anderson (good) or Pavelec (bad).

  90. spoiler says:

    The best nicknames are second or third derivatives, for eg:

    Martin Marincin = MM = Eminem = Slim Shady

    Which also plays off his lankiness and the inability Management has seeing him. Sideburns.

    There should be some inscrutabilty, some inside jokiness, some internal logic, perhaps a double entendre aspect to the nick

    But if we are going to go for this radio play-by-play slash newspaper-article styled moniker then I submit:

    The Rootin’ Shootin’ Teuton, Best Gunslinger in the Wild Wild West.

    nyuk nyuk

  91. leadfarmer says:

    DocFan,

    Yeah an aging goalie is a bad idea, but no one is talking about bringing in a 36 year old Khabibulin. I know Woodguy likes Cam Talbot a lot, but he is only 2 1/2 years younger than Crawford so its not like its an huge age difference and before this season Talbot has played only a fraction of the games Crawford has. Saying you don’t like Crawford because his contract is expensive thats fine, but saying that his best years are behind him and that he will be a boat anchor soon is another thing

  92. delooper says:

    spoiler:
    The best nicknames are second or third derivatives, for eg:

    Martin Marincin = MM = Eminem = Slim Shady

    Then I’d advocate for calling Draisaitl stinky. Cologne is stinky. Fish are stinky. The hype about him is building up to a recognisable odor to the extent that everyone notices him when he enters the room…

  93. G Money says:

    leadfarmer: I would like to see real stats to your advanced stats. Yes with P values and everything

    I am in a bit of a hurry as I have to rush off to Muay Thai class and continue the process of destroying every ligament in my left shoulder.

    HOWEVER. This is a topic initially raised by Ryan the other day and I feel it is worth a discussion.

    P values have their place in fancystats (more correctly, Fisher significance testing of a hypothesis; and it is true that some folks in the fancystats community play fast and loose at times; and personally I take care to include them in my analyses over at OilersNerdAlert wherever and whenever it make sense to do so).

    But they are NOT the end all and be all, they are NOT universally applicable, and challenging a well-considered analysis like WG’s “because p-values” is not IMO a meaningful counter.

    I believe that with fancystats (and with analyses like WG’s), we are in the world of measurement and decision science, NOT statistics. The two are related but definitely not the same.

    So expect a diatribe on the topic upcoming when I get back from my reductio ad shouldereum! Apologies in advance to all who will not be interested.

  94. slopitch says:

    Id pass on Crawford at his current salary. He’s not a 6 million dollar goalie IMO. Paying that much will cost you a wonderkid in a couple years. Id rather go after Talbot or Anderson.

  95. spoiler says:

    DocFan: How about trading for Chara – 3 more years at a big salary – but imagine him and Nurse on a pairing together. I imagine as Nurse enters his 3rd year and Chara is almost done, he’d be carrying the pairing rather than vice versa that one would expect at the beginning.

    Chara despite his age, still has the best or second best numbers on the Bruins… him and Hamilton are tough to distinguish.

    But, I think the odds of Neely trading with Chia are Slim, Shady.

  96. GCW_69 says:

    knighttown:
    If you acquire Jones for Leon and sign Soderberg aren’t you further ahead?

    Yes.

  97. delooper says:

    Is anyone streaming Leon’s game tonight?

  98. Doug McLachlan says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    Agreed that the right bet may well be to go for another two from the bargain bin and see if you strike gold.

    At the start of the season, Calgary’s gamble of Hiller ($4.5M) and Ramo ($2.75M) wasn’t all that different than the Oilers’ Fasth ($3.4M – but only $2.9M cap hit) and Scrivins ($2.3M) save and except Hiller’s .918 and Ramo’s .912 sv% crushed Fasth’s .888 and Scrivins’ .890 sv%.

    Scrivins’ could rebound (.922 only a season ago) with some structure in front of him and if you pair him with the right partner they may be able to tandem it out – for a lot less than Crawford.

    Anaheim is a game from the finals committing less than $2M to their goalies. Amazing. But the three other conference finalists are devoting a lot more to the task. Chicago has $7+M for their three-headed net, mostly to Crawford; Tampa $6.5, mostly to Bishop; Rangers almost $10, with $8.5M to Lundqvist.

    I get that Crawford is a lot of coin and there may be better combinations out there but I think Hall and Ebs and Nuge need to have a year where if they have a bad turnover entering the zone that someone has their back between the pipes.

  99. Woodguy says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy,

    Dwayne Roloson is a little sad that you think he was washed up when he hit 30.No one told Tim Thomas he was washed up he didn’t even make the league until he was over 30.Lunquist is 33 and playing some of the best hockey this year and he has miles on him.Dominator played over age 40.Luongo just posted some of the best numbers in his career in front of a bunch of kids at age 36

    Lately I’ve noticed a theme about players being too old to help this team and that number is dropping and dropping.Now a 30 year old is washed up.In two years we will be talking about a 27 year old being too old to contribute.Some players especially ones that have managed to stay healthy are good for a long time.Lumping a bunch of players who are very different from genetics to injury luck, to work ethic and coming to conclusions not even about their current abilities but about future abilities is next to impossible.I would like to see real stats to your advanced stats.Yes with P values and everything

    Wow.

    I ask for a link to your work to back up your assertion and you:

    1) mention 4 out of the 400 or so goalies who’ve played since Hasek.

    2) went on an idiotic strawman rant with a bunch of bullshit that means nothing.

    Do us both a favour and don’t reply to my posts showing outliers and calling them the rule and then accuse of saying things I never said unless you’ve actually, you know, done the work.

    Jackass.

  100. bendelson says:

    Haus. Why is LD’s nickname not Haus?

    Too easy?

  101. Visually better says:

    Anyone think with the change in management that Petry would ever come back? or is that ship sailed. Could you imagine Sekera and Petry coming on if we got rid of the tank commander and possibly Purcell?

  102. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Doug McLachlan,

    To be honest I’m not sure that there is a right bet here, I’m just trying to get people away from making definitive statments about something that’s clearly a bunch of guesswork (which, on the internet, is usaully about as sane as getting in a fistfight with the tide).

    I see a lot of people saying “this guy is correct” or “that guy is correct” and I think it’s important to point out that, whatever we do, it’ll be with a hole heck of a lot of uncertainty. That’s true of all players but it’s doubly true for goalies.

    I’m not against Crawford. If we are going to sign a somewhat older, more expensive guy, on a longer deal I like him. I like him more than Jimmy Howard, or Ryan Miller last year, or extending Cam Ward for any amount of money, or Pavelec at all even though he’s cheaper.

    I’m not convinced Crawford is better than Anderson today, and I like Anderson’s term even though he’s a few years older. I like Niemi if we can get him for 2 years, but I’d rather have Crawford to Niemi for equal money and term.

    I like Talbot, but I don’t like the idea of giving much up for him and I don’t think the Rangers move him cheaply because even as a backup he helps them win next year.

    I’m not sold on Jones. Jones/Scrivens as a tandem is too risky for me.

    Long story short: I have no idea what we should do. Some ideas are better than others, none are perfect. Crawford has warts for sure but there are plenty of alternative paths that look worse.

  103. Ryan says:

    G Money,

    Well, in short there’s a place for them, I agree it’s not always necessary for some comparisons. It depends on the context and what you’re trying to conclude.

    If someone who’s a leader in the advanced stats field is going to come to a bold conclusion that their score-adjusted fenwick is a much better predictor of how many points a team will earn in the remainder of the season than fenclose…then Support this conclusion with a slightly different weak correlation coefficient that isn’t statistically different… That’s atrocious.

    If guys at our blog want to eyeball advanced stats for comparing players… It’s not feasible for these types of comparisons.

  104. Woodguy says:

    <blockquote cite="comment-415

    spoiler: You’re withholding key pieces of information…How much of a drop-off?What was the median age for drop off? Is this drop-off described by a bell curve?How big is one standard deviation? Ie, what do you mean when you say “most”?

    ALL bets on acquiring ANY player of ANY age are probability bets.What’s the probability of it working out in this case?

    If after 3 good years with the Oilers, the Oil are ready to start Broissoit, for eg, is Crawford deal-able with that contract and a higher cap limit?Is trading for him right now a dead end street?

    I’m not saying Crawford would be my choice but your post seems like a summary conviction against the idea.

    191″>

    Doug McLachlan:
    Woodguy,

    $6M is a lot to pay for any goalie and, agreed, he isn’t elite.

    If not Crawford, who we all generally agree could be available, then who would you suggest instead?

    FA goalies younger than Crawford include:

    Ramo,
    Neuvirth.
    Enroth,
    Griess,
    Dubnyk (who looks pretty good now), and
    Lindback (who I am starting to wonder if he could be poised for a Dubnyk-like awakening).

    I’m not withholding anything.

    Read my posts and the links in them.

  105. Marc says:

    Woodguy: Can you show me where you figured that out?

    I didn’t find that in my research.

    I never noticed this until he mentioned it, but Crawford’s usage in Chicago does seem to be considerably lower than other high profile starters. Check out his games and minutes played: http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=62349.

    Crawford has never played more than 60 regular season games at any level and has only played above 3400 minutes once, in the AHL. Even in the seasons with long playoff runs he’s never got above 80 games played in a season.

    If you look at Brodeur (http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=587) or Lundqvist (http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=51269), they both have a bunch of season where they exceeded 70 regular season games and/or 4000 minutes. Brodeur had a couple of season where he played 95+ regular season and playoff games.

    I have no idea what this might mean for Crawford’s long term effectiveness as an NHL starter, but if Brodeur’s decline in his mid thirties is part of the equation, then it’s probably worth noting that Crawford has a 100+ fewer games played than Brodeur at the same age.

  106. spoiler says:

    Woodguy:
    <blockquote cite=”comment-415

    191″>

    Doug McLachlan:
    Woodguy,

    $6M is a lot to pay for any goalie and, agreed, he isn’t elite.

    If not Crawford, who we all generally agree could be available, then who would you suggest instead?

    FA goalies younger than Crawford include:

    Ramo,
    Neuvirth.
    Enroth,
    Griess,
    Dubnyk (who looks pretty good now), and
    Lindback (who I am starting to wonder if he could be poised for a Dubnyk-like awakening).

    I’m not withholding anything.

    Read my posts and the links in them.

    Sorry, did not realize that the relevant info was actually behind another link in the post you linked to.

    Have now looked at it and it appears that goalies start declining from pretty much the moment they start playing, or at least by age 25, but the real “fall-off-a-cliff” drop doesn’t happen till they are 35 (as also stated by the study’s author).

    Crawford’s contract runs to his age 35 year.

    Also, you didn’t address the possibility of trading him farther down the contract, while the drop offs are barely noticeable (-.002).

    😀

  107. Woodguy says:

    spoiler: Sorry, did not realize that the relevant info was actually behind another link in the post you linked to.

    Have now looked at it and it appears that goalies start declining from pretty much the moment they start playing, or at least by age 25, but the real “fall-off-a-cliff” drop doesn’t happen till they are 35 (as also stated by the study’s author).

    Crawford’s contract runs to his age 35 year.

    Also, you didn’t address the possibility of trading him farther down the contract, while the drop offs are barely noticeable (-.002).

    Goalies don’t get better with age.

    Crawford is already headed down the curve.

    I’d prefer someone like Talbot or Bernier who project to be at their peak in the next 3-5 years and not cost 6MM.

    Your mileage may vary.

  108. G Money says:

    Ryan,

    Yep, I believe we’re in full accord on that. p-values have their place. Sometimes that includes hockey fancystats, sometimes it doesn’t. But I, like you, remain underwhelmed by Tulsky’s work and haven’t adopted it. If you’re interested, Micah Blake McCurdy’s version of SAC strikes me as both more accurate and more rigorous, though I still haven’t intuitively gotten a sense of it enough to make me want to use it (yet).

  109. Woodguy says:

    Marc,

    I bet minutes played plays a part, but I haven’t seen anything that analyzes it, so I can’t say definitively.

    I thought Leadfarmer had done something, but he was just pulling outliers out of his ass.

    I’d love to see some data on this.

  110. spoiler says:

    Woodguy: Goalies don’t get better with age.

    Crawford is already headed down the curve.

    I’d prefer someone like Talbot or Bernier who project to be at their peak in the next 3-5 years and not cost 6MM.

    Your mileage may vary.

    Crawford posted a far better SV% this year than last.

    His worst year was 3 years ago.

    According to the study you link to, the declines begin at 25 so neither Bernier nor Talbot are at their peak. They are also “heading down the curve”.

    Declines are very gradual and still see upticks up to age 35.

    Crawford is not signed past that age nor does he have to be kept that long.

    I don’t know if Crawford is the right choice, partly because I’m a skinflint when it comes to goalies, but the study you linked to isn’t really telling me he’s not the right choice.

    Certainly not in any emphatic sense.

  111. PhrankLee says:

    I don’t mind taking Crawford as long as we also pick a highly touted prospect this year. If the draft is as deep as we all believe then the top goalies in there will be deep too.

    Crawford mentoring LB and the star pick sounds good to me.

    When was the last time we had solid G that was able to mentor the up and coming G?

    Khabbi? I don’t think he was much of a mentor. Roli?

    Anyway paramount for me is an established top 10 G. I cannot fathom anything less now that C. McD is coming to town.

  112. Woodguy says:

    spoiler,

    I understand what you are saying.

    I am also referring to what I found with the elite goalies in this post: http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2015/05/so-who-exactly-has-done-what-talbot-did.html

    The list of ages of goalies who achieved back to back years in the top 20 were:

    21-1
    22-1
    23-1
    24-1
    25-2
    26-4
    27-5
    28-3
    29-5
    30-5
    31-5
    32-3
    33-2
    34-2
    35-2
    36-1

    Except for a handful of the very elite, you cannot expect a goalie to continue to be among the top in the NHL after 32.

    The best goalies who are consistent from year to year are 26-32 year after year and that’s what I think the Oilers should aim for.

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