THE MAGNIFICENT SEVEN

On the Lowdown yesterday, I got a text asking about trading Nail Yakupov (can’t remember the return). I suggested the trade didn’t feel like a win for the Oilers, and a followup text asked ‘who is off limits?’ and I thought that was an interesting question. Here are my magnificent seven:

  1. No. 1 overall selection in the 2015 draft
  2. Taylor Hall
  3. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
  4. Jordan Eberle
  5. Darnell Nurse
  6. Leon Draisaitl
  7. Oscar Klefbom

That’s my list. Nail Yakupov isn’t on it and I love that kid’s potential. Anton Lander didn’t make the cut and I love his future. Benoit Pouliot is quality, not on the list. Mark Fayne, Bogdan Yakimov, the young Slepyshev, No. 16 overall, next year’s first-round pick (although if the movie had been ‘The Magnificent Eight’ I would have listed the pick). The Oilers have a lot of nice things they can deal for the right return.

One thing is true: The Oilers cannot trade any of those magnificent seven. They are unique, hard-earned talents and their future is enormous. There are other ways to address need.

NO MORE DEPTH DEFENSEMEN, DAMMIT!

All kinds of little items to discuss this morning, we’re getting to the good stuff now, folks. Let’s take these one at a time and please remember it’s all chatter none of these things is written in stone.

  • Matty: Chiarelli may take a run at Bruins UFA defenceman Adam McQuaid July 1, with the going price about $2.5 million a year for a tough No. 5 D-man. Source

I don’t like this idea at all. The Oilers have more No. 5 defensemen than the rest of the Pacific division combined. Spending $2.5M on this player is really a terrible idea. Plus he’s picking up injuries every year now despite being 28. The Oilers can’t keep adding depth defensemen.

Ferraro’s words are encouraging. I think the best part of the signing involves the player’s response to it. He’s willing to play on the farm with Bogdan and develop—that’s a great attitude going in. If he can play the Willy Lindstrom role, well that’s a damn good player. Slepyshev’s contract details are here. I said at the time of his signing (this week) that starting in Bakersfield makes the most sense, but keep in mind the competition at 3L (Matt Fraser is he signs, Iiro Pakarinen, Leon Draisaitl) isn’t the 1985 Oilers in quality.

I’m just collecting McDavid quotes now, for the Lowetide 25th anniversary post. Gonna be a lot of tweets on that one too. Both this quote and the one below come from Bruce via Jason Gregor’s show.

Lander’s emergence as an NHL player was a big item from last season. Sometimes you get something in a losing season, we may have forgotten that over these long, lean years. Lander’s presence on the roster gives Edmonton some real flexibility and may mean moving Boyd Gordon at the deadline. Remember, Todd McLellan likes to run (or did) four lines at about the same ZS, which woul make Gordon’s strength (punishing ZS’s) less useful. Lander gives Edmonton that option. Someone should send Todd Nelson a thank you card.

I very much doubt Edmonton signs him, but that was a nice goal he scored for Quebec at the Memorial Cup last night. The fact Edmonton appears unlikely to sign him OR trade him before the deadline suggests his value must really have plummeted over the period after the draft. Here are the EV numbers in 2014-15 for the Quebec Remparts top-scoring forwards:

  1. Dmytro Timashov 66GP, 14-52-68 1.03EVp-p-g
  2. Adam Erne 60GP, 27-27-54 .900EVp-p-g
  3. Kurt Etchegary 65GP, 21-31-52 .800EVp-p-g
  4. Vladimir Tkachev 46GP, 14-18-32 .696EVp-p-g
  5. Anthony Duclair 26GP, 9-9-18 .692EVp-p-g
  6. Marco Roy 59GP, 21-13-34 .576EVp-p-g
  7. Massimo Carozza 68GP, 15-18-33 .485EVp-p-g
  8. Guillaume Gauthier 66GP, 13-19-32 .484EVp-p-g
  9. Jerome Verrier 40GP, 6-10-16 .400EVp-p-g

The thing that bugs me about this non-signing is that the Oilers haven’t been very good at assessing this stuff for ages. The current poster boy for drafting and missing the boat (imo) is Martin Marincin, but Roy and his 21 goals plus two-way play have value. He hasn’t done much to help himself this week at the Memorial Cup and we may never hear from him again. I’d feel a lot better about this if the Oilers had a better track record for assessing and development.

 BLUES AND SOBOTKA STUBBORN

It looks like Vladimir Sobotka is going to play in the KHL again next season, and the Blues are saying they’ll wait him out. This is a silly standoff, because Sobotka, 27, is  a very useful player. The Blues are a good not great team, and they should be finding a way to get useful value for the player. Story is here, dumb dumb dumb.

HORSE IN THE RACE

We don’t hear much about RNH and that’s fine, but it’s interesting to see what he enjoys and the things he may spend time doing outside of hockey when his long and productive career is over. Horses and hockey have a long tradition, fun article here.

NHL COMBINE INVITE LIST

The list is out today, I have an article up at ON about it. I think this is a very valuable list because it tells us the players outside the top 75 that teams are interested in seeing (Central invites the top 75, then teams request the rest).

GARNER SMILE

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

10 this morning, we hit the air on TSN 1260. Friday! Scheduled to appear:

  • Steve Lansky, Big Mouth Sports. NHL playoffs and the Blue Jays.
  • Antony Bent, FC Edmonton. Eddies caught a big win Sunday, need three more points tonight.
  • Alex Thomas, Oilers Rig. Alex has been doing a great job looking at possible Oilers’ additions for the summer, we’ll have a look.
  • Paul Almeida, SSE. We’ll preview the Saturday show and talk about the draft/trading picks.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

 

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110 Responses to "THE MAGNIFICENT SEVEN"

  1. SoCaloil says:

    Is sleppy’s deal one way then?

  2. Lowetide says:

    SoCaloil:
    Is sleppy’s deal one way then?

    All entry-level deals are two-way contracts.

  3. Bryan says:

    Nuge is golden. The quiet and under appreciated one. It will be an interesting choice to see which phenom gets the C going forward but he would be my choice every day of the week.

  4. SoCaloil says:

    Ah. Thx LT.

  5. rickithebear says:

    Did a look at all UFA D yesteraday.
    Mcquaid:
    YR – Who played w/ most – comp – EVGA/60 – Goalies EVGA
    14-15 – Seidenberg – 3rd – 1.90 – Rask 2.00
    13-14 – Krug/Bart – 3rd – 1.43 – Rask 1.45
    12-13 – Ference – 2nd/3rd – 1.34 – Rask 2.12
    11-12 – Ference – 2nd – 1.48 – Thomas 1.97
    Career 6.60 PKGA/60 1:20 PKTOI

    RNH not going PvP but sharing comp is a 90pt Center.

  6. Bag of Pucks says:

    If it’s any of Nikitin, Ference and Schultz out and McQuaid in, that’s an upgrade.

    Chia will lean on past relationships to secure UFAs. Nothing wrong with that.

    Nuge and Ebs are not on my ‘untouchables’ list. GMs should always entertain offers.

    Imo, an untouchable is the mythical 5 tool player (McDavid) or a prospect ranked as one of the top players at his position (Drai, Nurse) on a value contract.

  7. Racki says:

    Before doing opening the article, I tried to guess who your 7 are. Figured Yak would be one of them as I couldn’t think of who else it would be. I don’t think Yak is untouchable either except that his value won’t be good enough to garner much right now probably. Anyways, I agree that Klefbom is untouchable. Actually, I personally have one untouchable.. Soon to be McDavid. The other 6 I’d say are damn near untouchable though.. Like would have to be an amazing return.

  8. raventalon40 says:

    I don’t mind adding McQuaid if it means trading someone else of equal value to the roster but higher value to the cap hit.

    For example.
    Bring in McQuaid, right-hand shot
    Trade away Nikitin, left-hand shot

  9. raventalon40 says:

    Lowetide: All entry-level deals are two-way contracts.

    Unless the player has played enough games that season to be waiver-eiligible? Or is that for standard non-ELC contracts only?

  10. AsiaOil says:

    Your untouchable list is OK LT – but if Jordan Eberle is a piece that gets us a top pair dman under 30 then he’s gone and Yak can step into his slot. The downgrade from Yak to Eberle is offset by the extra cap room and improvement on defense – plus Yak may be at Eberle’s level or higher in a couple of years. You replace Eberle with a bigger UFA RW such as Stewart, Frolik or Stafford.

    I’m also good with trading Yak for a younger dman such as Larsson and again signing a UFA RW to replace Yak. LW with Hall/Pou is fine – center is going to be finesse with RNH/CMD – but we cannot afford to be too small on RW as well or the team will simply get bullied into the ground.

  11. raventalon40 says:

    The Oilers should get busy adding Francois Beauchemin.

    No not THIS one, I meant THIS one!

  12. slopitch says:

    Yak is untouchable this year due to value. Id play him with Hall and McDavid all year. Raise his value, raise his confidence. After that, I’d probably keep him. I get that it’s likely that a forward needs to be moved to get a dman. But it’s like picking your worst favorite kid – hard to do.

  13. Hall Awaits says:

    McQuaid could be decent as a 6. That is of course after you buy out Nikitin, trade Schultz and Ference and exorcise the demons of Grebeshkov, Belov, Aulie, Larsen and Hunt.

    Mac-T’s defenders were all raging tire fires in their own right.

  14. raventalon40 says:

    Hall Awaits:
    McQuaid could be decent as a 6. That is of course after you buy out Nikitin, trade Schultz and Ference and exorcise the demons of Grebeshkov, Belov, Aulie, Larsen and Hunt.

    Mac-T’s defenders were all raging tire fires in their own right.

    Larsen wasn’t too bad.

    As a RW.

  15. jm363561 says:

    Maybe for the short term the list is okay, but this time next year I will ask you to revisit. To my mind there cannot be seven untouchables – once their ELCs are burned there will be a whole new definition of cap hell if we keep them all (unless Kevin Lowe and MacT lace up again on value contracts). So if one or more have to go they may as well go sooner rather than later if the right deal is available and they bring in a top D. As for McLander, watch this space – he will be the heart and soul of this team.

  16. AsiaOil says:

    I would really like to keep Yak this year and let Drai/Slepyshev get some chemistry going in the AHL until the trade deadline. After we dump Purcell at the deadline – you call up Drai – and play him on LW with Yak/Lander – feed them soft minutes and enjoy. A forward lineup like this may not get into the playoffs this year – but they would come at you in waves and be one hell of a lot of fun to watch.

    Hall RHN Eberle
    Poo CMD Stewart
    Drai Lander Yak
    Klink Gordon Hendricks

    Eventually a Euro line of Slepyshev Drai Yak could also be one heck of a lot of fun. we can keep both Yak and Eberle short term – but we absolutely have to nurture Yak to his full potential to either replace Eberle or trade for full value.

  17. Ducey says:

    The thing that bugs me about this non-signing is that the Oilers haven’t been very good at assessing this stuff for ages. The current poster boy for drafting and missing the boat (imo) is Martin Marincin, but Roy and his 21 goals plus two-way play have value. He hasn’t done much to help himself this week at the Memorial Cup and we may never hear from him again. I’d feel a lot better about this if the Oilers had a better track record for assessing and development.

    I don’t understand this comment.

    Marincin was drafted and signed.

    I have never understood the criticism of sending Martin the Martian back to the AHL this year. No one has ever been hurt by spending too much time in the minors during their ELC. DET would be thinking of calling him up next year for the first time had he be brought up in their organization.

    I mean I understand if you think MM was better than some of the other options for the Oilers, but in terms of his development, he was not hurt by being sent down.

    Roy won’t be signed. Different issue.

    The Oilers have done a pretty good job of signing their drafted players. The only exceptions I can think of recently are Nash (who did not want to sign), and Rieder (who may or may not have wanted to sign). Between 2008 and the 2012 draft they cut bait on Blain (you did not like this at the time either), Perhonen, Czerwonka, Bigos, Hesketh, and Motin. I am quite sure none of those guys is going to come back to haunt them.

    Ryan Jones would have been quite proud of that Roy goal; he was cruising around the neutral zone while the puck was in his end.

    The bottom line is that if you are the second oldest guy on the team, you should not be behind 5 other guys in even strength scoring. .576 ppg translates to what, 75 % of this for the AHL? That’s like .45 ppg – in the AHL. That’s bottom six production for a guy who doesn’t profile as a bottom six player. The guy they just signed to an AHL only deal, Rankin, was much better.

    The math doesn’t like him, and I have not seen him good in my limited viewings. Why the criticism?

  18. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Ducey,

    Exactly. I like Roy as a player, but complaining about the non signing is a little over the top. We just signed a better player, at the same age, in a lower scoring league, to an AHL only deal. But we have to get Roy inked for 3 years on the 50 man list? Why?

    I don’t see any other team using a draft pick to select sub-PPG smallish 20 year old forward in any draft, forget about a deep draft.

    Look at it this way, if we hadn’t drafted the kid, and he passed through the draft, would anyone be clamoring to sign him to an NHL deal? If we hadn’t been following him for the last 3 years, the answer is a clear no. I’d be interested to hear from anyone that would honestly say otherwise to that question.

  19. Traktor says:

    I’d take McQuaid at 2.5.

  20. russ99 says:

    Yakupov is on my top 7 list until we see what we have.

    Eberle isn’t but it would take a ovepay to move him.

  21. Halfwise says:

    I accept that we believe big changes in personnel are necessary for this team to compete, specifically D and G.

    But it occurred to me this morning that a big part of the Oiler D Zone Tire Fire (TM) is bungled zone exits followed by neutral zone turnovers followed by sustained pressure and either a goal against or a penalty taken by an exhausted and desperate Oiler. Rinse and repeat.

    It drives me nuts, while teams like SJ managed to not look like that very often.

    So a question for all y’all: how many goals against can be prevented with better coaching of own-zone play? Is Todd McL worth half a goal against per game, all on his own?

    If he is, then some of this year’s better draft picks can be used as such, not traded for players that look better because they are playing for non tire fire teams.

  22. book¡je says:

    Lowetide: All entry-level deals are two-way contracts.

    That’s good, it means they don’t have to worry about waivers!

    (That ones for you Woodguy).

  23. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Halfwise:
    I acceptthat we believe big changes in personnel are necessary for this team to compete, specifically D and G.

    But it occurred to me this morning that a big part of the Oiler D Zone Tire Fire (TM) is bungled zone exits followed by neutral zone turnovers followed by sustained pressure and either a goal against or a penalty taken by an exhausted and desperate Oiler. Rinse and repeat.

    It drives me nuts, while teams like SJ managed to not look like that very often.

    So a question for all y’all: how many goals against can be prevented with better coaching of own-zone play? Is Todd McL worth half a goal against per game, all on his own?

    If he is, then some of this year’s better draft picks can be used as such, not traded for players that look better because they are playing for non tire fire teams.

    So hard to say. A lot of people, myself included, thought that our best acquisition last year was Craig Ramsey, that he had potential to really solidify Dzone play and improve the power play. He did, as far as I can tell, neither of those things.

  24. Bad Seed says:

    I’d say the only untouchables for me would be the first overall this year, Nurse and possibly RNH. Otherwise, if I can get a young number one defenceman with any of the others, I pull that trigger all day long.
    Also, it doesn’t bother me that we aren’t signing Roy. I agree with Ducey.

  25. PhrankLee says:

    No. 1 overall selection in the 2015 draft
    Taylor Hall
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
    Jordan Eberle
    Darnell Nurse
    Leon Draisaitl
    Oscar Klefbom

    LT this list is absolutely correct. My observation is it represents the quality at the top of the organization. If you kept going with the list I wonder where the first G shows up? Around 20th or so would be my reckoning.

    Recent signing of E2 shows some effort to address this. This component of the club has been neglected very badly. Even worse than D. (at least they had Ramsey). The entire structure of the club may have to change to accommodate G development. More actual bullets are required. Duds need to be flushed. You need to dedicate a good 10% of the 50 man list to G. At least 2 of those spots need to be guys pointed at the NHL. Seriously pointed at the NHL. (LB and E2). Starter, Scrivens, Bachman. I’m a little concerned about the gap between Starter and backup in terms of NHL quality goaling.

    Drifting a lot in this post. My point is it is a real tell on the club that we don’t have anyone in the G department that we absolutely cannot live without. Or at least threatens to push into that Magnificent Seven,

    WG has really sold me on the value of Talbot. But I think NYR would have to be out of their minds to trade him given that he has proved he can swing Heinrik’s Hammer.

    Chia has a big job in front of him having to address the entire department.

  26. wheatnoil says:

    Matty: Chiarelli may take a run at Bruins UFA defenceman Adam McQuaid July 1, with the going price about $2.5 million a year for a tough No. 5 D-man.

    The one good thing I take from this quote is that they’re at least slotting him at his level of ability. The last time the Oilers signed the Bruins’ #5 defensemen, it was to play him in the top 4 and sometimes on the top pairing.

  27. oprah sucks says:

    I know people hate reading this and I hate saying it but if edm wants to get better on d they are goin to have to trade someone of value and the greatest return would be imo taylor hall. edm will not have problems offensively without him and that would be the greatest concern trading him so……

  28. "Steve Smith" says:

    raventalon40: Unless the player has played enough games that season to be waiver-eiligible? Or is that for standard non-ELC contracts only?

    Update for May 29, 2015: Waiver eligiblity remains, for the billionth day running, completely unrelated to whether a contract is one- or two-way; further updates as they become available.

  29. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    oprah sucks,

    Yes, that’s possibly the case, and I think most people understand that. I’m not sure I agree that it’s Hall, but I think the fundamental question is what does “untouchable” mean.

    I don’t think it means completely unwilling to trade. I think it basically means that I wouldn’t trade them unless someone from another team’s untouchable list was coming back the other way.

    I bet Jones or Josi is on Nashville’s list, or OEL in Arizona, etc. I agree with LT’s list, but if someone was willing to give me someone I’d immediately put on the same list, then I’d think about moving a guy like Hall, Draisaitl or Klefbom. I’d think about it anyway.

    It just probably won’t happen, so I’m comfortable with the term “untouchable”.

  30. G Money says:

    Halfwise: But it occurred to me this morning that a big part of the Oiler D Zone Tire Fire (TM) is bungled zone exits followed by neutral zone turnovers followed by sustained pressure and either a goal against or a penalty taken by an exhausted and desperate Oiler. Rinse and repeat.
    It drives me nuts, while teams like SJ managed to not look like that very often.

    Add in unpressured turnovers by the D while trying to move the puck and you are speaking Tire Fire Truth.

    Zone exits are something that SJ is really solid at, and some of the work LT has previously posted from Fear the Fin indicates this is very much a priority in TMc’s coaching.

    Hall’s recent comments about TMc being very strict about playing his system but at the same time making the system easy to understand and easy to implement on the ice IMO speaks volumes about what we can expect. Specifically: good things. Many good things.

    I’ve thought for years that San Jose is one of the best coached teams around, and I’m almost as psyched about McL as I am about McD. (Almost)

  31. striatic says:

    Poor Vladdy Tkachev.

    0.7 EVPPG is well below expectations. He looked so promising last TC.

  32. wheatnoil says:

    Halfwise,

    G Money,

    A couple years ago, Cult of Hockey was tracking zone exits and entries and it was really great data. I was thinking about this recently as I was looking at RegressedPDO’s work with Chicago and thinking, “We really need to gather this data for the Oilers.” I had a brief thought of, “Hey, I could probably do some of this!” And then I remembered that there’s no way in hell that I can carve out that kind of time commitment. Still, it would be immensely useful data. I nominate… someone else to do it!

  33. D says:

    LT,

    Yakupov fan here. I know you’re a pretty big supporter of his, but I agree that it is up to Nail to work his way onto your list. Not a problem going from the Magnificent Seven to the Magnificent Eight. In 1997, the G7 expanded to the G8 with the addition of Russia, so there’s precedent already.

  34. Acumen says:

    My list runs three deep after that lottery win:

    1. Connor McDavid
    2. Taylor Hall
    3. Darnell Nurse

    And I would even entertain offers of McD for an Eichel or Ekblad super package. There’s a timeline for trades though… I think that when McDavid goes into his next contract and Leon is a bona fide professional, you move Nuge ahead of the next negotiation. Eberle is a darling, but not irreplaceable. Ditto for Klef, who could be used to acquire an upgrade on himself. And with Draisaitl, I think it will eventually be an either/or between him and Nuge, but you make the call later after seeing how the German develops.

    As for McQuaid, by himself its more of the same and not good. But as mentioned earlier if we clear room for him I’m OK with it. We NEED RHD in this system, and he’s the right age for acquiring these guys (see: Petry, Jeff… fuck).

  35. G Money says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: I don’t think it means completely unwilling to trade. I think it basically means that I wouldn’t trade them unless someone from another team’s untouchable list was coming back the other way.

    I like this definition a lot.

    No-one should be untouchable. It all depends on the return coming the other way.

    As you say, for this team, Hall must be an untouchable … unless OEL is coming back the other way. Then you do that trade in a heartbeat.

  36. G Money says:

    wheatnoil,

    Right now, there are a couple of crowd sourced data gathering processes going on. The most intriguing to me is the ‘passes to shots’ project, which tracks the movement of the puck prior to a shot or goal. There will be gold in that dataset, without a doubt.

    But until SportVu comes along, it will be a painful manual process to gather it.

    I think they have the right approach – tackle it with volumes of people.

    The CoH guys do something similar with their scoring chances, they share the burden (Staples, Bruce, Young Willis at the very least).

    I think that this approach might be workable if we put together our own consortium to do it. If for example, you were tasked with doing zone exits for just one period of a game once a month, that might be workable and far from onerous or a big time commitment.

    That would require 45 people (15 games average x 3 periods) to be part of the tracking group. And even if you missed a game or a period here or there, it actually wouldn’t matter that much.

    Volunteers?

  37. PunkInDrublic says:

    I don’t have an issue with Chia bringing in McQuaid at 2.5M. He could be paired with Ference (assuming Ference wont waive his NMC). Give them easy minutes and let them punch faces at will.

    I think Chia’s best bet for cap space this summer is to call up Buffalo and try to get them to take Purcell and Nikitin in exchange for a 7th round pick or something ridiculous. Something along the lines of:

    “Hey Tim, it’s Peter. Sorry for the lottery win; Eichel’s gonna be a force for you guys. Anyway, can I interest you in taking on Purcell and Nikitin? They have one year left each and will get you almost half way to the cap floor, and you can trade them for more than we’re asking at the deadline. They’ll also make you a lock for the Matthews lottery in 2016. All I want back is a 7th round pick in one of the next three years.”

  38. Ducey says:

    wheatnoil:
    Matty: Chiarelli may take a run at Bruins UFA defenceman Adam McQuaid July 1, with the going price about $2.5 million a year for a tough No. 5 D-man.

    The one good thing I take from this quote is that they’re at least slotting him at his level of ability. The last time the Oilers signed the Bruins’ #5 defensemen, it was to play him in the top 4 and sometimes on the top pairing.

    “They” are not slotting him anywhere.

    This is Matheson. The same guy that has been trading Drew Stafford here every summer and trade deadline for 5 years.

    He doesn’t have access anymore. He has been relegated to speculating at our level (for reference I speculated on McQuaid being a possible target a couple of weeks ago).

    Matheson should start putting E(4) behind his comments.

  39. rich says:

    LT, I agree w/the list of players you don’t trade. Also agree that right now Yak is not on that list.

    But not putting him on the list does not mean you can trade him and get good value in return and this is something that’s been discussed here a lot the last 6 months. Yes, Nelson helped to turn him around (as did D. Roy after MacT finally realized that you need actual NHL centers in the NHL).

    But there’s a reason why he signed the bridge contract he did and its very unlikely that he could return a #1 or #2 d-man. Given this, I don’t expect him to be traded straight up.

    Interesting that Matty is now spitballing Bruin’s d-men. Wonder if MacT is still yapping on the sly to his favorite writer, or if this is Matty throwing darts at the board after a few too many brews hoping to score. If you’re buying out one of Nikitin or Ference, by the time you add McQuaid back, there are no cap savings. He may be a better #5 or #6 than what’s currently on the roster, but cap-buyout and cost doesn’t help you with your bigger needs – and that’s the biggest reason you would buy one of the 2 of them out.

    Meh.

  40. wheatnoil says:

    G Money,

    Yeah, those larger projects are going to be really interesting, I agree. The problem is that the data will take a long time to be revealed. Some of the fun with the way CoH did it a couple years ago was being able to check in on the data as the season progressed. Take a look at who was strong and who was not and see if we can find the evidence to support or refute our opinions. Of course, it’s only so valuable without benchmarks for the rest of the league to compare to, but I still find it interesting.

    I’d actually be down for taking part. Whether we split it up by games or whether we split it up by periods. It could be quite doable if there’s enough people interested.

  41. Snowman says:

    Completely off topic, was hoping to get some career advice from the group here if you’ll oblige me.

    Are there any CFA’s in the group? I’m looking at switching from accounting to finance and just have a couple questions.

    Or if anyone has any opinions on the matter please feel free to share.

    Also my untouchables are CMD, RNH, Nurse, Klefbom, Hall. Almost untouchable: Eberle, Drai.

  42. rickithebear says:

    striatic:
    Poor Vladdy Tkachev.

    0.7 EVPPG is well below expectations. He looked so promising last TC.

    Passing to a 6’5″ 232lb Player who scored goals like Kovi; Ovi; Malkin; Tarasenko works well.

  43. linkfromhyrule says:

    G Money: I’ve thought for years that San Jose is one of the best coached teams around, and I’m almost as psyched about McL as I am about McD. (Almost)

    Can you imagine Godot if Eakins was still around to wreck McDavid? 🙂

  44. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Snowman:
    Completely off topic, was hoping to get some career advice from the group here if you’ll oblige me.

    Are there any CFA’s in the group? I’m looking at switching from accounting to finance and just have a couple questions.

    Or if anyone has any opinions on the matter please feel free to share.

    Also my untouchables are CMD, RNH, Nurse, Klefbom, Hall. Almost untouchable: Eberle, Drai.

    Both great choices. I would say that a CFA is generally more industry specific, in the sense that it usually results in working in the finance sector or the finance branch of a very large company. It doesn’t have to, there are of course exceptions, but that’s generally the case.

    All businesses, large and small, tend to employ accountants, even outside of traditional accounting roles. Again, nothing wrong with either, but there is more flexibility built into the accounting stream. Something to consider, but ultimately you need to think about the kind of work you want to do and the kind of life you want to live. Then you need to realize that your tastes will change so none of this careful consideration matters.

    Whatever you do, for the love of all that is holy, get as much industry experience DURING your education as you can. Get internships. Ignore shitty pay, just accumulate experience. When you and 7 of your friends are applying for the same job, that’s almost for sure what distinguishes you from your peers. Can’t stress that enough.

  45. Pouzar says:

    If Nuge isn’t on your list…..well……..get off my lawn.

  46. GCW_69 says:

    I would only have McDavid on my list.

    Why? Because if anyone offered Doughty, Duncan, Hedman, Rask, Pietrangelo, or a player of that ilk then there is no one outside of McDavid I would be unwilling to include in the discussion.

  47. Snowman says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    Thanks for the advice. I’m already halfway through my CPA (formerly CA) designation. I wanted to go into finance after I graduated but my family talked me out of it because accounting is “safer”. There’s a couple entry level Investment Research analyst positions available (they’re entry level but the pay is better.. go figure). It would require switching designations but honestly, I haven’t had 10 days of accounting I’ve enjoyed.

  48. GCW_69 says:

    Pouzar:
    If Nuge isn’t on your list…..well……..get off my lawn.

    So, LA offers Doughty or Tampa offers Hedman and you would say no?

  49. Pouzar says:

    GCW_69: So, LA offers Doughty or Tampa offers Hedman and you would say no?

    Yer still on my lawn eh…..

  50. GCW_69 says:

    Pouzar,

    Yep. There is no one you would trade Nuge for?

  51. Pouzar says:

    GCW_69:
    Pouzar,

    Yep.There is no one you would trade Nuge for?

    Anybody can be traded if the offer is right. Is that what you want to hear?
    Yes I get that. We as Oiler fans should know better than anyone.

    So by your logic, I suspect there is no one on your list?

  52. striatic says:

    rickithebear: Passing to a 6’5″ 232lb Player who scored goals like Kovi; Ovi; Malkin; Tarasenko works well.

    Tkachev was very good in his TC games away from Yakimov as well.

    That individual success was part of the TC narrative too.

  53. striatic says:

    Was the Tkachev contract blunder an unintentionally dodged bullet?

  54. raventalon40 says:

    "Steve Smith": Update for May 29, 2015: Waiver eligiblity remains, for the billionth day running, completely unrelated to whether a contract is one- or two-way; further updates as they become available.

    Thanks… that was kind of my point. haha

  55. Cahoon says:

    striatic,

    I wouldn’t say we dodged a bullet, as that contract would have essentially been found money, and he’s performing better than our 2nd rounder that people are saying we need to get signed, on the same team no less.

  56. TheGreatMutato says:

    I’m rather happy to see that LT is among the few who isn’t in a hurry to trade Eberle.

    Among RWs active at some point in the last 4 years, the only players with a P/60 greater than Eberle are Kessel, Voracek, Tarasenko, Kane, and Seguin.

    Looking at 5on5 scoring for that same group in the same period, those above Eberle are Seguin, Tarasenko, Stone, and Kane.

    The people who appear in both groups are Seguin, Tarasenko, and Kane. That’s some pretty lovely company and something we just might want to hang on to.

  57. G Money says:

    So yesterday I promised I would write an article on why EVGA/60 (Ricki’s favourite stat) is an absolutely terrible way to measure defensemen.

    The number crunching was rather more of a grind than usual and I fell asleep on my couch before I could finish the calculations and write the article.

    I still intend to finish and post today, but I’ll post the basics of the analysis and leave it out there for discussion.

    Here’s what I did:
    – I looked for defensemen that played in front of two different goalies with significantly different EV sv%.
    – I used Mark Streit of PHI playing in front of Steve Mason and Ray Emery as my first case study.
    – I calculated a variety of defensive stats overall, and then calculated them again separated by goaltender.

    For the record, Ray Emery’s 2014-15 EV sv% was 91.27, and Steve Mason’s was 94.37.

    So how does that look?

    Mark Streit played 67 games last season in front of either Emery (24 games) or Mason (43 games). These were full games only. Here are Streit’s averaged EV stats for those 67 games:

    EVSA60 33.1
    EVSCA60 28.2
    EVCA60 59.4
    EVSCF% 0.49
    EVCF% 0.48
    EVGA/60 2.33

    Got it? Mark Streit overall gives up about 59.4 / 33.1 / 28.2 Corsi, Shots, and Scoring chances against per 60 at even strength. (Or more correctly, his team does while he’s on the ice). He comes pretty close to sawing off on Corsi (49%) and slightly worse at Scoring Chances (48%). According to Ricki, however, his defining stat is EVGA/60, which is 2.33. (Note – these stats are not cumulative, they are averages by game)

    Now, let’s look at those same stats in front of the PHI starting goalie, Steve Mason:

    SA60 34.2
    SCA60 29.2
    CA60 60.8
    SCF% 0.486
    CF% 0.471

    So … Streit when playing in front of Mason gives up more EV shot attempts, shots, scoring chances, and has a weaker CF% and SCF%. This makes sense if you consider that Mason is more likely to face the toughest opposition.

    But wait! EVGA tells us this:

    EVGA/60 1.94

    Despite looking slightly worse (but still pretty consistent) by every other metric, Streit has miraculously improved as a defenseman! He’s now giving up goals at a rate 16% less than before. Wow!

    Now how about in front of Emery?

    SA60 31.0
    SCA60 26.5
    CA60 56.8
    SCF% 0.502
    CF% 0.485

    Everything is better under Emery. Small sample warning, wide error bars, etc. but better. Not radically better, but better. Fewer chances of every type against, and the puck is moving in the right direction to a greater extent.

    Now, how about EVGA?

    EVGA/60 3.04

    Yikes! Despite doing better by every other metric, Streit has somehow managed to become a horribly poor defenseman, giving up fully 30% more goals per hour than his average, and 57% worse than in front of Mason!

    Hot damn.

    What are we to conclude from this?

    Either:

    – Assume that EVGA/60 is a valid measure of a defenseman. In that case, Mark Streit is an incredible defenseman in front of Steve Mason, but a terrible one in front of Ray Emery, and he manages to accomplish this manic depressive performance in a single season, with the same team, while giving up more shots and chances in front of Mason.

    OR

    – Accept that EVGA/60 doesn’t measure defensemen at all. Goalies – yes. Defensemen? No. Unequivocally no.

    Questions?

  58. Pouzar says:

    TheGreatMutato:
    I’m rather happy to see that LT is among the few who isn’t in a hurry to trade Eberle.

    Among RWs active at some point in the last 4 years, the only players with a P/60 greater than Eberle are Kessel, Voracek, Tarasenko, Kane, and Seguin.

    Looking at 5on5 scoring for that same group in the same period, those above Eberle are Seguin, Tarasenko, Stone, and Kane.

    The people who appear in both groups are Seguin, Tarasenko, and Kane. That’s some pretty lovely company and something we just might want to hang on to.

    Yer wasting your time. He doesn’t have the 200 ft game of any of those guys.

  59. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    G Money: Questions?

    Doesn’t your neck get sore, falling asleep on the couch?

  60. G Money says:

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1),

    Excellent question.

    Yes. Yes it does. One extra strength Robaxacet + one Aleve does the trick though.

    Better living through chemistry.

  61. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    G Money: Better living through chemistry.

    I use an ice-pack on the area for about 10 min before getting into the shower, then pop some extra magnesium (you’ll find it’s an ingredient in the robax). And I’ve banished couches from my man cave.

  62. thebiggestmanintheworld says:

    If Tkachev performs like he did last year, at any TC this year, I would wager he gets a contract.

    He looked good, throughout, even as competition got harder.

    Maybe he was set back by the fact he performed well, was about to get an NHL contract, and go play pro in the AHL, and then had it yanked and was told that he’d be back in the Q.

    I know, I know, he should be a pro and not let that mental stuff affect him, but, hey, happens to the best of us, sometimes…

    Maybe his season is a blessing, in that we can grab him late, and already sort of know where he’s at.

    We know he and Bogdan play well together, and I would wager he has the tools to “Omark” the AHL.

    Grab him with a 5th or later, and put him in the A.

    I have no problem with that.

  63. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    G Money,

    then we have these guys…

  64. Henry says:

    G Money:
    So yesterday I promised I would write an article on why EVGA/60 (Ricki’s favourite stat) is an absolutely terrible way to measure defensemen.

    The number crunching was rather more of a grind than usual and I fell asleep on my couch before I could finish the calculations and write the article.

    I still intend to finish and post today, but I’ll post the basics of the analysis and leave it out there for discussion.

    Here’s what I did:
    – I looked for defensemen that played in front of two different goalies with significantly different EV sv%.
    – I used Mark Streit of PHI playing in front of Steve Mason and Ray Emery as my first case study.
    – I calculated a variety of defensive stats overall, and then calculated them again separated by goaltender.

    For the record, Ray Emery’s 2014-15 EV sv% was 91.27, and Steve Mason’s was 94.37.

    So how does that look?

    Mark Streit played 67 games last season in front of either Emery (24 games) or Mason (43 games).These were full games only.Here are Streit’s averaged EV stats for those 68 games:

    EVSA60 33.1
    EVSCA60 28.2
    EVCA60 59.4
    EVSCF% 0.49
    EVCF% 0.48
    EVGA/60 2.33

    Got it?Mark Streit overall gives up about 59.4 / 33.1 / 28.2 Corsi, Shots, and Scoring chances against per 60 at even strength. (Or more correctly, his team does while he’s on the ice).He comes pretty close to sawing off on Corsi (49%) and slightly worse at Scoring Chances (48%).According to Ricki, however, his defining stat is EVGA/60, which is 2.33.(Note – these stats are not cumulative, they are averages by game)

    Now, let’s look at those same stats in front of the PHI starting goalie, Steve Mason:

    SA60 34.2
    SCA60 29.2
    CA60 60.8
    SCF% 0.486
    CF% 0.471

    So … Streit when playing in front of Mason gives up more EV shot attempts, shots, scoring chances, and has a weaker CF% and SCF%.This makes sense if you consider that Mason is more likely to face the toughest opposition.

    But wait!EVGA tells us this:

    EVGA/60 1.94

    Despite looking slightly worse (but still pretty consistent) by every other metric, Streit has miraculously improved as a defenseman!He’s now giving up goals at a rate 16% less than before.Wow!

    Now how about in front of Emery?

    SA60 31.0
    SCA60 26.5
    CA60 56.8
    SCF% 0.502
    CF% 0.485

    Everything is better under Emery.Small sample warning, wide error bars, etc. but better.Not radically better, but better. Fewer chances of every type against, and the puck is moving in the right direction to a greater extent.

    Now, how about EVGA?

    EVGA/60 3.04

    Yikes!Despite doing better by every other metric, Streit has somehow managed to become a horribly poor defenseman, giving up fully 30% more goals per hour than his average, and 57% worse than in front of Mason!

    Hot damn.

    What are we to conclude from this?

    Either:

    – Assume that EVGA/60 is a valid measure of a defenseman.In that case, Mark Streit is an incredible defenseman in front of Steve Mason, but a terrible one in front of Ray Emery, and he manages to accomplish this manic depressive performance in a single season, with the same team, while giving up more shots and chances in front of Mason.

    OR

    – Accept that EVGA/60 doesn’t measure defensemen at all.Goalies – yes.Defensemen?No.Unequivocally no.

    Questions?

    Are you interested in graduate school? Your analytical skills are excellent.

  65. LadiesloveSmid says:

    raventalon40: Larsen wasn’t too bad.

    As a RW.

    time to give Schultz the Larsen experiment

    Gotta think an offensive Dman with defensive issues is probably an OK 2way RW.

    Hall-McDavid-Schultz, not bad actually

  66. Kmart99 says:

    rickithebear: Passing to a 6’5″ 232lb Player who scored goals like Kovi; Ovi; Malkin; Tarasenko works well.

    I’ve seen you make the Yakimov comparison countless times… are you trolling Ricki? Or are you ignoring age and just going by KHL Season 1?

    Malkin 18-19 yr old KHL Season 21g/48gp .44g/gp
    Kovalchuck 18-19 yr old not in the KHL – played in RUS-2 League 28g/40gp .7g/gp
    Ovechkin 18-19 yr old KHL Season 13g/37gp .35g/gp
    Tarasenko 18-19 yr old KHL Season 9g/42gp .214g/gp
    Yakimov 18-19 yr old KHL Season 7g/33gp .212g/gp

    Yakimov is not remotely in the ovechkin malkin discussion. There isn’t a Kovalchuk comparison to be made for that age since he wasn’t in the KHL. So that leaves Tarasenko.

    From now on you may only compare to Tarasenko, and it should come with a sample size warning as well. Also, let’s not forget the next season Tarasenko scored 18g/39gp in the KHL, while Yak2 scored 12g/57gp in the AHL. I don’t know the TOI comparisons and I know Yak2 wasn’t getting massive minutes, but still….

    Yak2 is a solid prospect. Kudos to the scouts who pushed to draft him. That is all. Please stop with the Ovi, Malkin, Kovi comparisons. If he makes the bigs and contributes to a winning team that is a smashing success.

  67. Stelio Kontos (Formerly Zangetsu-Formerly Thinker) says:

    rickithebear,

    There wasn’t a single 90pt player last year…

  68. G Money says:

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1): then we have these guys…

    The day we draft McDavid for realsies, I can picture LT and WG on that contraption, floating down the N Saskatchewan, having a beer and then having another …

    Henry: Are you interested in graduate school? Your analytical skills are excellent.

    Heh heh, thanks – been there done that … twice!

  69. raventalon40 says:

    LadiesloveSmid: time to give Schultz the Larsen experiment

    Gotta think an offensive Dman with defensive issues is probably an OK 2way RW.

    Hall-McDavid-Schultz, not bad actually

    Yeah, but Larsen was a ferocious forechecker and hit a lot for his relative size.

    Can you say the same for Schultz? Would he be the best option to convert to RW?

    Given the build of team PC is looking for, I’d say no.

  70. RexLibris says:

    Sepp Blatter wins FIFA re-election 133-73 against Jordanian prince Ali Bin al-Hussein.

    If events unfold over the next year as one expects them to, al-Hussein may look back at this day and thank his lucky stars.

  71. czar says:

    The second part of the Hall interview with Gregor.

    http://oilersnation.com/2015/5/29/part-two-if-you-will-with-taylor-hall

  72. TheGreatMutato says:

    Pouzar: Yer wasting your time. He doesn’t have the 200 ft game of any of those guys.

    I’m not sure if I’d say guys like Kane, Kessel, and Seguin have reputations as strong 200 ft players, for what it’s worth.

  73. Магия 10 says:

    RexLibris:
    Sepp Blatter wins FIFA re-election 133-73 against Jordanian prince Ali Bin al-Hussein.

    If events unfold over the next year as one expects them to, al-Hussein may look back at this day and thank his lucky stars.

    Sometimes you can’t step off of your bulldozer without being crushed by it. Up to 134 folks may be in that position.

  74. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Button’s final list is out.

    http://www.tsn.ca/talent/craig-s-list-final-ranking-1.294692

    As always he has some wide variations from consensus. As discussed on these boards, that’s likely because he’s the most publicly visible of the “draft authorities” and as such needs to generate some discussion.

    Hanifin is still at 12, he didn’t provide any specific reason for the drop, as he’s likely ranked 3rd on the consensus lists.

    Kylington is in the mid 40’s (46 I believe). That would be very surprising.

    Oilers using this list draft:

    McDavid
    Rantenan
    Konecny
    Nattinen
    Gaudette
    Paygin

  75. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: Paygin

    Too bad he’s going to be drafted a day after the summer solstice…

  76. Rip Fan Winkle "OilOnslaught" says:

    It would be great if they could keep them all together, but my ‘Doughty only’ list is the players that are usually only available in their prime or pre-prime at the draft. Connor, RNH, Drai, Hall, Nurse, Klefbom.

    Drafting and developing 2nd tier good players creates the currency, along with picks, that can be used to stay competitive. Trade the 1st tier players while still under contract if they won’t resign at peak value. A team should not retire many players if it wants to stay competitive.

  77. Pouzar says:

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1): Too bad he’s going to be drafted a day after the summer solstice…

    That’s pretty good….not “Irritable Vowel Syndrome” good but damn good!

    Now go to your room!

  78. Ducey says:

    G Money:

    – Accept that EVGA/60 doesn’t measure defensemen at all.Goalies – yes.Defensemen?No.Unequivocally no.

    Questions?

    Why are you trying to convince Ricki of anything?

  79. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    Ducey,

    No bear left behind.

    Speaking of which, it seems strange that the Bruins still haven’t announced anything with regard to Julien. He’s been twisting in the wind ever since Chelli was gassed.

    Sweeney as new GM should know what he has in Julien, and if they’re not going to keep him, the list of candidates has really been pared down to the middle of the pack: Torts, Wilson, Eakins, Carlyle…

  80. spoiler says:

    G Money:
    So yesterday I promised I would write an article on why EVGA/60 (Ricki’s favourite stat) is an absolutely terrible way to measure defensemen.

    The number crunching was rather more of a grind than usual and I fell asleep on my couch before I could finish the calculations and write the article.

    I still intend to finish and post today, but I’ll post the basics of the analysis and leave it out there for discussion.

    Here’s what I did:
    – I looked for defensemen that played in front of two different goalies with significantly different EV sv%.
    – I used Mark Streit of PHI playing in front of Steve Mason and Ray Emery as my first case study.
    – I calculated a variety of defensive stats overall, and then calculated them again separated by goaltender.

    For the record, Ray Emery’s 2014-15 EV sv% was 91.27, and Steve Mason’s was 94.37.

    So how does that look?

    Mark Streit played 67 games last season in front of either Emery (24 games) or Mason (43 games).These were full games only.Here are Streit’s averaged EV stats for those 67 games:

    EVSA60 33.1
    EVSCA60 28.2
    EVCA60 59.4
    EVSCF% 0.49
    EVCF% 0.48
    EVGA/60 2.33

    Got it?Mark Streit overall gives up about 59.4 / 33.1 / 28.2 Corsi, Shots, and Scoring chances against per 60 at even strength. (Or more correctly, his team does while he’s on the ice).He comes pretty close to sawing off on Corsi (49%) and slightly worse at Scoring Chances (48%).According to Ricki, however, his defining stat is EVGA/60, which is 2.33.(Note – these stats are not cumulative, they are averages by game)

    Now, let’s look at those same stats in front of the PHI starting goalie, Steve Mason:

    SA60 34.2
    SCA60 29.2
    CA60 60.8
    SCF% 0.486
    CF% 0.471

    So … Streit when playing in front of Mason gives up more EV shot attempts, shots, scoring chances, and has a weaker CF% and SCF%.This makes sense if you consider that Mason is more likely to face the toughest opposition.

    But wait!EVGA tells us this:

    EVGA/60 1.94

    Despite looking slightly worse (but still pretty consistent) by every other metric, Streit has miraculously improved as a defenseman!He’s now giving up goals at a rate 16% less than before.Wow!

    Now how about in front of Emery?

    SA60 31.0
    SCA60 26.5
    CA60 56.8
    SCF% 0.502
    CF% 0.485

    Everything is better under Emery.Small sample warning, wide error bars, etc. but better.Not radically better, but better. Fewer chances of every type against, and the puck is moving in the right direction to a greater extent.

    Now, how about EVGA?

    EVGA/60 3.04

    Yikes!Despite doing better by every other metric, Streit has somehow managed to become a horribly poor defenseman, giving up fully 30% more goals per hour than his average, and 57% worse than in front of Mason!

    Hot damn.

    What are we to conclude from this?

    Either:

    – Assume that EVGA/60 is a valid measure of a defenseman.In that case, Mark Streit is an incredible defenseman in front of Steve Mason, but a terrible one in front of Ray Emery, and he manages to accomplish this manic depressive performance in a single season, with the same team, while giving up more shots and chances in front of Mason.

    OR

    – Accept that EVGA/60 doesn’t measure defensemen at all.Goalies – yes.Defensemen?No.Unequivocally no.

    Questions?

    I like what you are doing here and agree wholeheartedly with your main point, but I find it curious that Shots Against in the first dataset were 33.1/60, and Scoring Chances Against were 28.2…

    That seems like an incredible number of scoring chances to give up per that shot rate.

  81. G Money says:

    Ducey: Why are you trying to convince Ricki of anything?

    I like a challenge.

    Next up: convince Godot to have a balanced viewpoint on Eakins.

    After that, peace in the Middle East will be a breeze.

    Actually, I’m not really trying to convince Ricki of anything. (And also let me state that this isn’t “aimed” at Ricki – he is truly a character, and his posting here adds a unique point of view)

    I just find it annoying that statements as to the relative goodness of defenders using EVGA/60 are made so regularly, despite the fact that the claim that EVGA/60 itself is somehow a good, let alone better than other measures like CA, is made without any backup at all.

    So I’ve put a line in the sand, a concrete example of how EVGA is actually a goaltending metric, not a defensive metric. Let’s see if there is any rigour at all to the counter-claim!

  82. G Money says:

    spoiler: I like what you are doing here and agree wholeheartedly with your main point, but I find it curious that Shots Against in the first dataset were 33.1/60, and Scoring Chances Against were 28.2…

    That seems like an incredible number of scoring chances to give up per that shot rate.

    It does at first glance, doesn’t it? I was surprised by that number so I did a sanity check across the league.

    Turns out that the average conversion of shots->scoring chances is about 90%.

    The PHI/Streit numbers in that case are 85%, so they’re actually *better* than average!

    It does however suggest it may be interesting to test a defensive metric: conversion rate of shots to scoring chances, or Corsi to scoring chances.

    Sigh. Added it to the todo list.

  83. spoiler says:

    G Money,

    Well, if you were using the same site and thus the same methodology to confirm Philly’s number then that’s not really alleviating my concern, which is broader than just Philly’s number.

  84. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    spoiler,

    True, but it really doesn’t affect the point GMoney is making with respect to EVGA/60 not being an effective measurement of performance for the player in question. The SCA/60 number (though they seem artificially high) don’t change significantly from one period to another (they are actually better for the bad goalie) and that is all you need to know to understand how it pertains to EVGA/60.

    I thought the same thing when I first looked at it. I suspect their analysis of what constitutes a scoring chance is different, but it’s likely applied uniformly from player to player and game to game, even if it’s wrong. That’s what matters here.

  85. pts2pndr says:

    The number one rule is do what is best for the Team! This decision is based on a number of factors including age, current trade value, cost of a replacement and so on. There are intangibles such as leadership physical play etc. To trade any player or commodity prior to it reaching it’s top value is counter productive! Fallling in Love with your player or buying into the sales pitch on a player from another team is fools play. You would iove the weber of old not an old Weber! Some of our younger players carreers have been retarded by bad coaching/management. Patience while the new management team evaluates is imperative! Bottom line is no-one is irreplaceable! The price is what is negotiable! The Oilers have went from have not to drivers seat. Hang on tight and see where the bus takes us! It is once again Great to be an Oiler fan!

  86. Pajamah says:

    RexLibris:

    “Sepp Blatter wins FIFA re-election 133-73 against Jordanian prince Ali Bin al-Hussein.
    If events unfold over the next year as one expects them to, al-Hussein may look back at this day and thank his lucky stars.”

    How bad of an option was Bin al-Hussein that Blatter won that handily?

  87. Магия 10 says:

    G Money: It does at first glance, doesn’t it? I was surprised by that number so I did a sanity check across the league. Turns out that the average conversion of shots->scoring chances is about 90%

    intuition evaluates ‘conversion’ as though B is a subset of A. or in plain english scoring chances are also being manufactured out of thin air. i.e. missed shots. percentages from some shot attempt metric will likely sit better.

  88. Магия 10 says:

    Pajamah:
    RexLibris:

    “Sepp Blatter wins FIFA re-election 133-73 against Jordanian prince Ali Bin al-Hussein.
    If events unfold over the next year as one expects them to, al-Hussein may look back at this day and thank his lucky stars.”

    How bad of an option was Bin al-Hussein that Blatter won that handily?

    how bad an option was it for blatter to have someome else get his records? how bad an option for the 133 was it for that to happen?

  89. spoiler says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    There’s a bigger picture than that. If you read my post, I acknowledge and support GMoney’s conclusions on that particular matter.

  90. RexLibris says:

    G Money: It does at first glance, doesn’t it?I was surprised by that number so I did a sanity check across the league.

    Turns out that the average conversion of shots->scoring chances is about 90%.

    The PHI/Streit numbers in that case are 85%, so they’re actually *better* than average!

    It does however suggest it may be interesting to test a defensive metric: conversion rate of shots to scoring chances, or Corsi to scoring chances.

    Sigh.Added it to the todo list.

    This is why the analytics movement offers the potential for an appreciation of hockey on a deeper level.

    Looking at this number one could be tempted to say: shots win games, therefore, go heavy into forwards and scrimp on defense. That person would be an Oilers GM from 2007 to 2013.

    Alternatively, we would look at those numbers and say: Holy hannah, what does that say about defensemen and goalies? And suddenly the importance of a good defender who can shave a few scoring chances off that lump shot data and move the puck up to the forwards to increase their own team’s shot numbers, and by association their scoring chance percentages, becomes pretty clear.

    You travel through the numbers and arrive at a point where you can know with certainty that guys like Lidstrom, Pronger, Niedermayer, and Ekman-Larsson, for all their differences, really are elite, and avoid conflating others with that special group.

    Hockey can be a beautiful game, but sometimes it feels like you can miss some of the truly sublime moments amidst all the chaos. Since taking better note of the advanced analytics data and what it tells us I’ve found it easier to identify and appreciate those times.

  91. G Money says:

    Магия 10,

    Actually, yes, you are correct in pointing out my sloppy use of language. Using ‘conversion’ in the hockey sense implies a strict subset, as in ‘converted a chance’ is interpreted to mean a goal was scored from a chance.

    So when I say conversion of shots to chances, I am using the word conversion incorrectly in context, because really what I mean is the ratio of shots to chances.

    This is technically wrong of me to do, because the war-on-ice definition of a chance includes a certain category of missed shots:

    blog.war-on-ice.com/new-defining-scoring-chances/

    That’s part of why the ratio seems so high. My bad.

  92. G Money says:

    spoiler,

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    I *think* (but I’m not sure) that my response to Магия 10 may address the concern … if not, please clarify!

  93. Магия 10 says:

    G Money:
    Магия 10,

    Actually, yes, you are correct in pointing out my sloppy use of language.Using ‘conversion’ in the hockey sense implies a strict subset, as in ‘converted a chance’ is interpreted to mean a goal was scored from a chance.

    So when I say conversion of shots to chances, I am using the word conversion incorrectly in context, because really what I mean is the ratio of shots to chances.

    This is technically wrong of me to do, because the war-on-ice definition of a chance includes a certain category of missed shots:

    blog.war-on-ice.com/new-defining-scoring-chances/

    That’s part of why the ratio seems so high.My bad.

    interesting how intuition sees the ratio as not fitting the metaphor. made me look more carefully at the language.

  94. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    Pouzar: Now go to your room!

    Y… I oughta…

  95. Woodguy says:

    G Money:
    So yesterday I promised I would write an article on why EVGA/60 (Ricki’s favourite stat) is an absolutely terrible way to measure defensemen.

    The number crunching was rather more of a grind than usual and I fell asleep on my couch before I could finish the calculations and write the article.

    I still intend to finish and post today, but I’ll post the basics of the analysis and leave it out there for discussion.

    Here’s what I did:
    – I looked for defensemen that played in front of two different goalies with significantly different EV sv%.
    – I used Mark Streit of PHI playing in front of Steve Mason and Ray Emery as my first case study.
    – I calculated a variety of defensive stats overall, and then calculated them again separated by goaltender.

    For the record, Ray Emery’s 2014-15 EV sv% was 91.27, and Steve Mason’s was 94.37.

    So how does that look?

    Mark Streit played 67 games last season in front of either Emery (24 games) or Mason (43 games).These were full games only.Here are Streit’s averaged EV stats for those 67 games:

    EVSA60 33.1
    EVSCA60 28.2
    EVCA60 59.4
    EVSCF% 0.49
    EVCF% 0.48
    EVGA/60 2.33

    Got it?Mark Streit overall gives up about 59.4 / 33.1 / 28.2 Corsi, Shots, and Scoring chances against per 60 at even strength. (Or more correctly, his team does while he’s on the ice).He comes pretty close to sawing off on Corsi (49%) and slightly worse at Scoring Chances (48%).According to Ricki, however, his defining stat is EVGA/60, which is 2.33.(Note – these stats are not cumulative, they are averages by game)

    Now, let’s look at those same stats in front of the PHI starting goalie, Steve Mason:

    SA60 34.2
    SCA60 29.2
    CA60 60.8
    SCF% 0.486
    CF% 0.471

    So … Streit when playing in front of Mason gives up more EV shot attempts, shots, scoring chances, and has a weaker CF% and SCF%.This makes sense if you consider that Mason is more likely to face the toughest opposition.

    But wait!EVGA tells us this:

    EVGA/60 1.94

    Despite looking slightly worse (but still pretty consistent) by every other metric, Streit has miraculously improved as a defenseman!He’s now giving up goals at a rate 16% less than before.Wow!

    Now how about in front of Emery?

    SA60 31.0
    SCA60 26.5
    CA60 56.8
    SCF% 0.502
    CF% 0.485

    Everything is better under Emery.Small sample warning, wide error bars, etc. but better.Not radically better, but better. Fewer chances of every type against, and the puck is moving in the right direction to a greater extent.

    Now, how about EVGA?

    EVGA/60 3.04

    Yikes!Despite doing better by every other metric, Streit has somehow managed to become a horribly poor defenseman, giving up fully 30% more goals per hour than his average, and 57% worse than in front of Mason!

    Hot damn.

    What are we to conclude from this?

    Either:

    – Assume that EVGA/60 is a valid measure of a defenseman.In that case, Mark Streit is an incredible defenseman in front of Steve Mason, but a terrible one in front of Ray Emery, and he manages to accomplish this manic depressive performance in a single season, with the same team, while giving up more shots and chances in front of Mason.

    OR

    – Accept that EVGA/60 doesn’t measure defensemen at all.Goalies – yes.Defensemen?No.Unequivocally no.

    Questions?

    ALJ

    I did something like that years ago using Dmen who changed teams.

    The bear didn’t stir.

  96. LadiesloveSmid says:

    G Money: I like a challenge.

    Next up: convince Godot to have a balanced viewpoint on Eakins.

    After that, peace in the Middle East will be a breeze.

    Actually, I’m not really trying to convince Ricki of anything.(And also let me state that this isn’t “aimed” at Ricki – he is truly a character, and his posting here adds a unique point of view)

    I just find it annoying that statements as to the relative goodness of defenders using EVGA/60 are made so regularly, despite the fact that the claim that EVGA/60 itself is somehow a good, let alone better than other measures like CA, is made without any backup at all.

    So I’ve put a line in the sand, a concrete example of how EVGA is actually a goaltending metric, not a defensive metric.Let’s see if there is any rigour at all to the counter-claim!

    is it a goaltending metric or a whole team metric?

    seems like everyone on the ice and luck control EVGA. Can’t really blame a goalie for how many EV goals he lets in if he’s peppered for scoring chances. Can’t really blame skaters when the goalie lets in 1 in every 5 shots(scrivens)

    my beef is there’s too many factors that ricki doesn’t take into consideration. Your box protection doesn’t mean much to me if you can’t make a breakout pass. You can’t measure Brandon Davidson’s defensive abilities after he’s played 2 games and has a nice EVGA/60

  97. RexLibris says:

    Pajamah:
    RexLibris:

    “Sepp Blatter wins FIFA re-election 133-73 against Jordanian prince Ali Bin al-Hussein.
    If events unfold over the next year as one expects them to, al-Hussein may look back at this day and thank his lucky stars.”

    How bad of an option was Bin al-Hussein that Blatter won that handily?

    He wasn’t. Most of the UEFA nations voted for al-Hussein. It was the Africa, South and Central America and Oceanica delegates who supported Blatter.

    Not sure if you recall the last election with Blatter against Hammam.

    He was nearly as crooked as they get, but Blatter beat him out. Not because Blatter was less crooked, but rather because he knew who to pay, how much, and he could do it better than Hammam.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/news-and-comment/mohamed-bin-hammam-claims-fifa-president-sepp-blatter-is-untouchable-8213612.html

    I’ll be perfectly honest. When I first heard about the arrests in Zurich I wondered if Blatter had encouraged a lackey to “leak” some information that would undermine his opponents in the election.

    In many ways FIFA is a perfect modern-day laboratory for anyone who wants to study international power struggles steeped in bribery, fraud, and intimidation but without any danger of military conflict or imminent personal danger.

    It is as close to the late Republic Roman political landscape as we are likely to find out in the open in the modern world.

    There are probably two dozen or more PhD theses sitting waiting to be written about FIFA.

    All that said, for those who love what football/soccer (or even sport in general) is capable of I’d strongly recommend the book: https://epl.bibliocommons.com/item/show/828442005_home_and_away

    About Team Canada at the Homeless World Cup.

    https://www.homelessworldcup.org/

  98. wheatnoil says:

    Woodguy: ALJ

    I did something like that years ago using Dmen who changed teams.

    The bear didn’t stir.

    ALJ is good, but I prefer McJesus to AHJ. So, in that line of thinking, I think it should be ‘Gesus’ or ‘G Sus’.

  99. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy: ALJ

    Careful, someone around here is going to ask him to turn water into whiskey pretty soon.

    Reasonable expectations.

  100. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    G Money,

    spoiler,

    Thanks GMoney, that’s a fine response.

    Sorry Spolier, I wasn’t clear in my “aggressive agreement” with 95% of what you were saying. I’m going to blame the time & day of the week for that. I do concede your point.

    These are the types of conversations that I wish I was having on a patio with a beer instead of online in a room with no natural light.

  101. Pajamah says:

    Магия 10: how bad an option was it for blatter to have someome else get his records? how bad an option for the 133 was it for that to happen?

    Spot on. Don’t imagine too many Jordanian princes with clean hands either. Still, goes to show how much of a farce FIFA actually is. And to think, we complain about a cartoon character running the NHL.

    And by run the NHL, I mean obviously is Lou Lamoriello’s Manchurian Candidate.

    “On behalf of the NHL *snickers*, I am proud to announce, I have “awarded” the New Jersey Devils their 1st round pick …back….because Lou told me thats not what circumvention means”

  102. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    RexLibris: Careful, someone around here is going to ask him to turn water into whiskey pretty soon.

    Reasonable expectations.

    Reminds me of back in the 80s, when my Dad bought a bunch of used whiskey barrels. He put a couple of gallons of water in each of them, and rolled them around in the back yard for a few weeks. Free whiskey.

  103. Pajamah says:

    RexLibris,

    What a joke!

    I hope UEFA pulls the plug and leaves FIFA. I read that Canada, US, Mexico would likely leave as well, joining UEFA, which would be better as well, as we would get to see better International matches (St.Kitts and Nevis notwithstanding)

    Seems the only good way to fix FIFA is to blow it up.

  104. auzy11 says:

    #5 D men too many already,plus Ferrance who is a great guy but needs to be traded,,,,the number 1 pick should be used to aquire a first rate goalie…..Schultz should be traded,with say Yak(love the guy) and you could pick up a decent D man and the young Russian they just signed in there and you get a great D man…..lots of young trade chips on farm…..dicey situation on how you attack this…….if done right in playoffs next year!!!!!!!!

  105. frjohnk says:

    G Money:
    So yesterday I promised I would write an article on why EVGA/60 (Ricki’s favourite stat) is an absolutely terrible way to measure defensemen.

    The number crunching was rather more of a grind than usual and I fell asleep on my couch before I could finish the calculations and write the article.

    I still intend to finish and post today, but I’ll post the basics of the analysis and leave it out there for discussion.

    Here’s what I did:
    – I looked for defensemen that played in front of two different goalies with significantly different EV sv%.
    – I used Mark Streit of PHI playing in front of Steve Mason and Ray Emery as my first case study.
    – I calculated a variety of defensive stats overall, and then calculated them again separated by goaltender.

    For the record, Ray Emery’s 2014-15 EV sv% was 91.27, and Steve Mason’s was 94.37.

    So how does that look?

    Mark Streit played 67 games last season in front of either Emery (24 games) or Mason (43 games).These were full games only.Here are Streit’s averaged EV stats for those 67 games:

    EVSA60 33.1
    EVSCA60 28.2
    EVCA60 59.4
    EVSCF% 0.49
    EVCF% 0.48
    EVGA/60 2.33

    Got it?Mark Streit overall gives up about 59.4 / 33.1 / 28.2 Corsi, Shots, and Scoring chances against per 60 at even strength. (Or more correctly, his team does while he’s on the ice).He comes pretty close to sawing off on Corsi (49%) and slightly worse at Scoring Chances (48%).According to Ricki, however, his defining stat is EVGA/60, which is 2.33.(Note – these stats are not cumulative, they are averages by game)

    Now, let’s look at those same stats in front of the PHI starting goalie, Steve Mason:

    SA60 34.2
    SCA60 29.2
    CA60 60.8
    SCF% 0.486
    CF% 0.471

    So … Streit when playing in front of Mason gives up more EV shot attempts, shots, scoring chances, and has a weaker CF% and SCF%.This makes sense if you consider that Mason is more likely to face the toughest opposition.

    But wait!EVGA tells us this:

    EVGA/60 1.94

    Despite looking slightly worse (but still pretty consistent) by every other metric, Streit has miraculously improved as a defenseman!He’s now giving up goals at a rate 16% less than before.Wow!

    Now how about in front of Emery?

    SA60 31.0
    SCA60 26.5
    CA60 56.8
    SCF% 0.502
    CF% 0.485

    Everything is better under Emery.Small sample warning, wide error bars, etc. but better.Not radically better, but better. Fewer chances of every type against, and the puck is moving in the right direction to a greater extent.

    Now, how about EVGA?

    EVGA/60 3.04

    Yikes!Despite doing better by every other metric, Streit has somehow managed to become a horribly poor defenseman, giving up fully 30% more goals per hour than his average, and 57% worse than in front of Mason!

    Hot damn.

    What are we to conclude from this?

    Either:

    – Assume that EVGA/60 is a valid measure of a defenseman.In that case, Mark Streit is an incredible defenseman in front of Steve Mason, but a terrible one in front of Ray Emery, and he manages to accomplish this manic depressive performance in a single season, with the same team, while giving up more shots and chances in front of Mason.

    OR

    – Accept that EVGA/60 doesn’t measure defensemen at all.Goalies – yes.Defensemen?No.Unequivocally no.

    Questions?

    Pretty much agree with you.

    Better ways to measure defensemen are
    -corsi against/60
    -shots against/60
    -scoring chances against/60
    along with allowing for zone starts and quality of competition.

  106. vishcosity says:

    These attempts to use corsi and evga/60 I think make great precursors for the inevitable RFID discussions coming soon. Through these attempts to model the NHL’s answer to raw data we are developing a collectively accepted language and protocols that can migrate. That is what I like about current advanced stats. Its a foundation for future development.

    Seems to me that in a forward thinking way Ricki is trying to use big data technology now. Theoretically, EVGA/60 should measure a defenseman’s performance. And if the data set were infinitely large, then I speculate that it would probably work pretty good too.

    Or, if Ricki had access to different data say, chip tech player and puck location (@ say 10 fps), I think his approach of (event against/60) would prove quite able to quantify defensemen well.

    Just cause it doesn’t work exceptionally well right now doesn’t suggest to me that he needs to change anything. In fact I think Ricki is on a great track, and further, I’ll venture to say that I think the real problem is one Gary F. Bettman.

  107. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    TheGreatMutato,

    Hilarious – my Dad even drove a New Yorker, but I don’t recall him ever trying to kiss the dog…

  108. season not played says:

    Stunning how far off the evaluation of Anton Lander by Dallas Eakins was.

  109. square_wheels says:

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1),

    I think we have the same dad. If the New Yorker had a continental kit….we might have been separated at birth to live in some strange parallel universe.

    Only diff is you can’t appreciate Sabbath and when the sun comes back out might have a giant penis shaped dead patch on the lawn.

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